Minnesota and Detroit Showdown

What is the deal with baseball teams not being able to determine a winner after playing 162 games? In the entire history of Major League Baseball, there has only been eight previous one game playoffs to determine a division or league winner, however this will be the third in three years when Detroit travels to Minnesota.

This is turning out to be quite a 24-hour period at the Metrodome, with Brett Favre facing his old team and Vikings fans in full throat going up against the North Division rival the Green Bay Packers. This is followed up on Tuesday with AL Central rivals Detroit and the Twins having to settle their differences in the diamond.

The Twins and Tigers finished with identical 86-76 records; however there is no doubt who has the momentum. Minnesota closed the season 16-4, which included four victories over Detroit to force a second straight 163rd game. Besides playing exceptional baseball, the Twins will have the home field advantage, which is as intimidating a place in baseball when the place is packed. Officials in Minnesota decided to pull back the upper-deck outfield curtain to expand seating to more than 50,000 fans for the game. Tickets sold out within minutes. The Twins are 48-33 on their home field this season

"Every pitch," Tigers manager Jim Leyland said, "will be a roar."

The Tigers could use a roar of their own, winning four times in last 10 games to find themselves in this predicament. Subtract the 12-5 win over Chicago on Sept. 26 and the Detroit offensive has tallied 3.1 runs per game to finish the season. From a matchup standpoint, not many strong points for the Tigers to rally around with 7-11 record vs. Minnesota this season (the reason the game is in Minneapolis), including a 2-7 record when playing under the roof.

Playing in the Land of 10,000 Lakes and 50,000 screaming Twins fans is part of the reason the Tigers finished 35-46 on the road this year. Manager Leyland is hoping the bats wake up, with his club is 24-11 having lost three of their last four games this season.

What a spot for a rookie pitcher, which is what Rick Porcello (14-9, 4.40 ERA) faces. Porcello closed strong with 2-1 record, not allowing more than three runs in any of his last four starts. The down side for the right-hander is 0-2 mark, with a 6.30 ERA in two starts at the Metrodome.

Bookmaker.com has Minny as -165 money line favorites with total of 8.5. Scott Baker (15-9, 4.36) has the assignment for Ron Gardenhire and likes the setup. “There's no way to go around the fact that we're playing in the Dome and not in Detroit," said Twins right-hander. "I think we've seen in the past how well we play in front of our fans and how much it can affect the outcome of the game. We're all very excited to be here at the Dome."

Minnesota is 24-7 in home games with an on-base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games and they are 24-7 when Baker starts as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last three seasons.

For totals players, the side might be an indication of how to bet the total. The Twinkies are 14-5 OVER at home with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games this season. Detroit on the other hand is 16-6 UNDER as an underdog of +125 to +175 in 2009.

Don’t look to history to leave many clues, with the home team 4-4 in play-in games. First pitch is 5:07 Eastern on TBS and possibly the winner is told by the line. Detroit is 30-59 as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last two seasons and Minnesota is 76-40 as a home favorite of -110 or higher in the same time span.

The winner gets the Yankees in New York on Wednesday to start ALDS.

Detroit has something to prove

If you’ve been following the American League in 2009, you’ve noticed Boston and New York have played about as expected. Though they had recent losing streak, Toronto is in the mix of good teams in the league and Texas has started surprising well in leading the AL West. One team that gathered few headlines is the Detroit Tigers and that is just fine with skipper Jim Leyland.

After a splashy introduction in 2006, which led to World Series appearance, Detroit and Leyland have misfired the last two seasons with higher expectations. This year, the Tigers sacrificed offense for defense at a couple of positions and their pitching has improved markedly.

Detroit (28-21, +5.8 units) is atop the AL Central, with an offense that still scores plenty of run, totaling 5.2 per game. With a 15-7 record at Comerica Park, these Tigers have had plenty in the tank in scoring six runs per contest at home. Despite missing pitchers like Jeremy Bonderman as starter, others have stepped up like Rick Porcello (6-3, 3.48 ERA, 1.200 WHIP). The 20-year old was the prize of the farm system and after a rocky beginning, the right-hander has settled in and a big reason for Detroit’s early season success.

Porcello throws a fastball, sinker and curve and was 5-0, with 1.50 ERA in May, the first Detroit rookie to win five games in the second month of the season in 55 years. I’ve had a couple of starts now and I’m able to settle in a little better out there and focus. And all the jitters are kind of gone,” Porcello said. “I think I’m getting a little more comfortable with each start.”

Detroit welcomes the challenge of Boston (29-22, +1.2 units) for three game series. The Tigers are 10-1 at home against teams with winning records. This is the final stop on the Red Sox 10-game road trip and they are 3-4 thus far, with an overall 12-16 mark as visitors. That plays to Detroit’s advantage with 6-2 record on home turf versus teams with losing road records.

Boston’s offense is as potent as Detroit’s just not on the road this season. The Red Sox also average 5.2 PRG, but fall off dramatically on the road to 4.4. Manager Terry Francona’s team typically excels versus high scoring teams, with 17-3 record against AL teams scoring 5.2 or more RPG and they are 19-5 on the road after a day off the last three years.

Daisuke Matsuzaka (0-3, 8.82, 2.237) has not come close to resembling the pitcher Boston fans are used to seeing. Matsuzaka’s control and command has been an issue, walking 10 batters in just over 16 innings, while being hit rather easily, allowing 28 base hits. In his last outing, Matsuzaka uncorked four wild pitches. He is 3-1 with a 2.81 ERA in four career starts against Detroit; including his only career complete game.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Tigers as -129 money line favorites, with total Un9.5. When Matsuszaka is in typical form, Boston is 10-1 UNDER on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 since last season. The Red Sox have taken last 22 of 31 Game 1’s, but are only 1-4 as recent underdog. Detroit has flourished as favorites with 13-3 mark and is 15-3-1 UNDER off a victory.

This matchup starts at 7:05 Eastern and is available to be seen in local markets. This is first meeting between these clubs in 2009, with Detroit 4-3 the last couple of years hitting with the last at bat.