Lining up two more Bowlers

One of the great aspects of this week leading up to being bombarded by bowl battles, for the next couple of days; you can take them one at a time before the onslaught arrives. This way the sports bettor can sit back and enjoy the games and not have to be consumed with flipping channels, which will come soon enough. Make the time to enjoy the relative serenity of one game at a time, with a pair of contests that offer notable contrasts.

EagleBank Bowl
UCLA vs. Temple
RFK Stadium – Washington, DC
4:30E ESPN

UCLA (6-6, SU & ATS) found out the true meaning of bowl eligible, having to wait two weeks to find out if they had another game or not. When Army lost to Navy, that set into motion the Bruins plans and they head this far East for the first time since 1998, when they traveled to Miami-Fl, however the nation’s capital in late December isn’t exactly South or Santa Monica Beach. Temple (9-3, 8-3 ATS) also had to wait just over a week to find out whom they would play, but they didn’t mind a bit, since the Owls are going bowling for the first time in 31 years. If any team should be jacked, it should be Temple and having a BCS team as opponent just adds to excitement.

Coach Al Golden has turned in one of the better coaching jobs this season, taking a team with definite limitations and almost making to the MAC title game. True freshman Bernard Pierce was sensational, running for 1,308 yards and 15 TDs, essentially in just eight games. Temple averaged 192 yards per game against teams that allowed 157 YPG and the Owls are 23-11 ATS in all games over the last three seasons. The one dimension missing is a passing game, having not thrown for more than 150 yards since Oct.10. With this time off, coach Golden hopes a semblance of passing the pigskin is possible with Temple 8-21 ATS away from home when they gain 100 to 150 net passing yards.

At least the Owls have something to hoot about offensively, that’s more than UCLA can say. The Bruins managed just one more yard of total offense than Temple at 339 yards (albeit vs much tougher competition) and did not run or throw with aplomb. Kevin Prince is presumed to be UCLA’s starting signal caller and could use the help of offensive linemen to block somebody. The Bruins are 4-20 ATS when they run for 100 to 150 yards and Temple surrendered just 109 per game this season.

The UCLA run defense had was run over by teams with a solid run game, however with Owls not being able to fly via the air, the Bruins can pack the box and dare Temple to beat them throwing the ball. UCLA is 17-8 ATS after a spread loss like they suffered against rival USC and Bookmaker.com has them as 4.5-point favorites with total drifting downward to 44.

As mentioned, Temple has to be super excited to play in this game, with better than three decades between bowl appearances and the Owls are 16-6 ATS as underdogs. UCLA didn’t show a substantial amount of improvement, other than becoming eligible to play in this contest and frosty environment against a team with a long losing history, doesn’t figure to make the Bruins charged-up. Their 28-7 loss to the Trojans has UCLA 2-6 ATS off a loss by 20 or more.

Temple has almost no postseason history, having played in bowls in 1978 and 1934. The Owls only took on three teams playing in bowls and was 1-2 and 2-1 ATS in 2009. The Bruins postseason history is much deeper at 13-15-1 with 11-11 ATS. UCLA has performed much better in the role as underdog compared to favorite like they are in the second EagleBank Bowl. They are 5-10 ATS as chalk, including most recent 2-7 spread mark.

3DW Line – Pick

Champs Sports Bowl
Wisconsin vs. Miami-Fl
Citrus Bowl Stadium – Orlando
8:00E ESPN

Wisconsin still has not-so-distant and not-so-pleasant memories of its last trip to the Champs Sports Bowl. That came last December when the Badgers (9-3, 6-6 ATS) were spanked 42-13 by Florida State. For 2009, Miami-Fl. is the opponent, and though head coach Bret Bielema’s team is two games better than it was a year ago, the Hurricanes (9-3, 6-6 ATS) present an imposing challenge. Miami ended up having played one of the country’s tougher schedules featuring eight bowl teams (5-3 SU & ATS). The Badgers were matched against seven postseason participants (4-3, 2-5 ATS) and failed to win or cover versus the last three.

This bowl has had more name changes than the emotions Urban Meyer has gone through in the last week (Tangerine, Blockbuster and Micron PC) and annually has been one of the least competitive bowls, as since 1993 only three games have been decided by a touchdown of less. Maybe a cheap tire company should be the sponsor in the “Blowout Bowl”.

Wisconsin has to have QB Scott Tolzien play well or the Badgers probably can’t win just running with John Clay. They need balance and throwing to talented tight ends and underrated WR Nick Toon, prevents Miami from stuffing the box. Off their demolition of Hawaii (51-10), Wisconsin is 21-6-1 ATS next after conceding 20 or fewer points.

Miami must have quarterback Jacory Harris at the top of his game. The Hurricanes undoubtedly have more offensive weapons, speed and athleticism, however if Harris is under pressure in the pocket, the offense tends not function as proficiently. It would make sense for Miami to play to strengths and come out throwing, testing the Badgers with their speed and determine how they react, which leads to running the ball with Graig Copper and their stable of backs. The Canes have covered five of last seven against teams with winning records.

Miami is a 3.5-point favorite, with total of 57 and despite most recent 7-3 ATS bowl mark, the Hurricanes are 10-24-1 ATS as favorites. The Badgers have covered the number just once in last seven encounters against squads with winning records and are 4-9 ATS as underdogs.

Wisconsin has become a bowl regular and is 9-10 with 9-8 ATS mark. This will be the Badgers sixth straight trip to the Sunshine State for bowl activity and the eighth consecutive time they will be an underdog in the postseason (3-4 SU & 4-3 ATS). Miami is 18-14 as a bowler, with above average 14-10 ATS record. The Hurricanes are 11-9 ATS as faves, but 1-3 ATS the last four times. The ACC team in the Champs Bowl has six-game winning streak with 4-2 ATS record.

3DW Line – Miami by 4

Three Good Bowls to Watch and Wager On

A tripleheader of bowl game action on ESPN starts at 1:00 Eastern Saturday, pitting North Carolina against West Virginia in the Car Care Bowl. Immediately following will be two schools who are regular bowlers in Wisconsin and Florida State, meeting in the Champs Sports Bowl from Orlando. The nitecap takes us to the city by the bay in San Francisco, with California having to travel a short distance to take on Miami-Florida in the Emerald Bowl. Thus far favorites are 4-4 against the spread and the total is 4-3-1 Over.

Meineke Car Care Bowl - North Carolina vs West Virginia

Back in late October, this was more likely to be a Gator Bowl matchup then pre-New Year’s Day encounter. Both teams lost in November as favorites twice, lowering their postseason options to Charlotte. From a travel aspect, this might work out just fine and be a good matchup. West Virginia (8-4, 4-7 ATS) has the dynamic running game led by Pat White, at 217.2 yards per game. White is statistically the greatest running quarterback of all-time. Big problem for Mountaineers is 3-12 ATS mark away from home vs. ACC foes.

North Carolina (8-4, 6-5 ATS) lived on turnovers all season, but only came up with three in last three games, losing twice. The offense never possessed the ball well and the defense was on the field almost 33 minutes per game. Quarterback T.J. Yates missed half the year with a broken ankle and played well to close the season in win over Duke. Coach Butch Davis teams are 6-0 ATS after no-cover in two out of three affairs.

Why to Watch and Wager

Many in Morgantown are having reservations if Bill Stewart was really the right man to lead this West Virginia football program. The Mountaineers are better on both sides of the ball, but have to play like it, which has too frequently not been the case this season. Running backs Noel Devine and Jock Sanders can scoot with just a small opening and this no-name defense was ninth in the country in points allowed at 15.9 points per game. If the ‘Teers running game does better a little better then normal, they are 36-10 ATS when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt.

North Carolina’s young team needs to hit a few big plays to build confidence and shake West Virginia up. Getting the ball to receiver Hakeem Nicks is the way to do this. The Tar Heels have talent in the defensive line and if they come to play could cause West Virginia problems. North Carolina must match yards with the Mountaineers since they are 7-18 ATS when they are out-gained by their opponents by 100-150 yards.

North Carolina is 12-13 and 9-6-1 ATS in bowls, with West Virginia 12-16 and desultory 6-12-1 ATS, including 0-4 against the number as favorites. The ACC has won and covered five of the six Car Care bowls with the Big East 1-4 SU and ATS.

Bookmaker.com Line – West Virginia -2.5, 46

Champs Sports Bowl -Wisconsin vs Florida State

This matchup is a game for the ages. Bobby Bowden is 79 and Badgers coach Bret Bielema is 38. Wisconsin (7-5, 5-6 ATS), despite winning last three contests was a season long disappointment. A phlegmatic offense was followed by a defense that lost focus in the middle of the year. A shocking loss at Michigan after leading 19-0 set the table for four consecutive defeats and they later managed to blow winnable contest at Michigan State. Cal –Poly missing three extra points in Madison, kept the Badgers from being .500 team. They are 0-8 ATS vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game on the season.

Florida State (8-4, 5-5 ATS) showed signs of returning to the top of the ACC, but made 10 turnovers in last three losses to chuck that to the side. The Seminoles did make a number of improvements this season however. Florida State had a running game that finished in the top 25 percent in the country at 180.4 yards per game. Signal caller Christian Ponder energized the team early, but did not do much past the halfway point of the season. The defense started to look like previous models finishing 14th in total defense, even with Florida hanging 45 points on them. Coach Bowden teams are 19-9 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse.

Why to Watch and Wager

Wisconsin is 6-3 ATS as bowl underdog and will attack the Noles run defense which was exploited in November for 192.6 yards per game. The Badgers for the season averaged 204.9 yards per game and will need quarterback Dustin Sherer to keep his wits about him and find tight end Garrett Graham to help move the chains.

The Seminoles are noteworthy bowl participant with 18-10-1 ATS record and will have speed edge. The Wisconsin offensive line has problems with speed rushers and Florida State has a slew of them, which led them to sixth in the nation in sacks with 36 on the year and second in tackles for loss. On offense, the Noles have to be patient and take what’s given, since the Badgers will likely wear down as they often have this season in the second half.

After a number of blowouts, the underdog is 3-0 ATS the last three years of this seven year old bowl contest.

Bookmaker.com Line – Florida State -6, 52

Emerald Bowl -California vs Miami-FL

Miami didn’t finish as strongly as they would have liked with two losses, and a tired Hurricanes defense ran out of gas, costing backers three spread shortfalls. Miami (7-5, 5-6 ATS) is just 1-9 ATS off one or more straight Overs, nonetheless, coach Randy Shannon is thankful for the extra practice time with his young squad. One element that rears its ugly head every bowl season is suspensions, with one team usually being hit harder than most. Thus far Miami is the clubhouse leader, with five players now suspended. How the team reacts early will set the tone.

In spite of a revolving door under center, California (9-3 ATS) won eight games this season, finishing with a flourish by clobbering Stanford and Washington. The Bears are 8-0 ATS off a home win by 17 points or more since 2006, but one 1-4 SU away from Berkeley this season. This should be a good game to showcase running back Jahvid Best, who was second only to Missouri’s Jeremy Maclin in all-purpose yards. The Bears also installed a new 3-4 defense and they embraced it like honey, finishing in the top 15 in the county in sacks and turnover margin. Cal is 8-2 ATS this season when favored.

Why to Watch and Wager

Miami has only played at home once since the end of October and this is a home game of sorts for Cal being 10 miles awhile. This is the Hurricanes first visit west in seven years and will have to have the running game working with Javarris James and Kraig Cooper working, considering how poor the passing game has been all season. The Canes are just 4-12 ATS after the first month of the season over the last two seasons, but were 4-2 ATS as visitors this year. Miami is 18-13 all-time in bowls and will be an underdog for just the fourth time in 24 lined games.

California has a defense good enough to stifle the Miami offense and possibly create turnovers leading to points. Best is the Bears best offensive weapon and whoever the starting quarterback is for Jeff Tedford has to play within the confines of the offense. Cal is 11-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last three seasons. California is 9-8-1 in bowl matchups with 5-5 ATS record.

The Emerald Bowl has been a rather dull event, but having California will add some like. The favorite is just 1-4 ATS in six year history.

Bookmaker.com Line – California -10, 50.5