Going Green has payoff with right methods

In these times of trying to be environmentally friendly, it is good for the earth to do so. The three R’s are at the centerpiece of this movement, recycle, reuse and reduce. Buying in larger quantities helps reduce the amounts of garbage is placed in landfills. Other tips include product lifecycle, sustainability and value. In the spirit of looking to do what’s right for the earth, adding Green to one’s wagering account also is beneficial since the more greenbacks a person has; it makes it easier to buy in bulk.

Let’s be clear, Al Gore might not wholly endorse this idea, but winning college football wagers surely creates a friendly environment, especially in these economic times.

As mentioned, the first aspect to consider is lifecycle. While there is no way to know exactly what the future holds, a true Green investor likes to have a good start to the future based on prior results. Take these college football teams for example.

ATS Records
Idaho 7-0
Connecticut 6-0
Central Michigan 6-1
Nebraska 5-1
UL-Monroe 5-1
Wyoming 5-1
Alabama 5-2
Ohio State 5-2

As these college football teams approach or are at the midpoint of their respective schedules, they have shown to be worthy of furthering the cause of Going Green by generating a vast amount of cash. What these teams have proven is they can look the wisest of oddsmakers and prove to the world they are more wrong than your local weatherman.

In most cases, the sportsbooks don’t take too heavy a beating since many teams on this list are below or off many sports bettors radar. That’s just fine since the majority of us are more concerned about doing what is right within our means and would prefer the public stayed away from our opportunity to Green-up our world.

Idaho a wonderful example of exercising one’s right of Going Green. The Vandals have been like Robin Hood, taking from the rich and giving to the poor with six covers of the spread as underdogs, which has included five OUTRIGHT upsets. Idaho is bowl eligible for the first time since 1999, having last played a in bowl game the previous year in Boise, ID at the Humanitarian Bowl against Southern Mississippi. The Vandals were favorites last week against Hawaii, which was the second time this has happened in 37 games. Trips to Nevada and Boise State will be challenging, however this just might be year to back Idaho and stay in the green.

Another consideration is sustainability for Going Green. It won’t happen every year, but tried and true college football programs are like blue chip stocks, they may not pay out huge dividends every year, but over time your money will grow. This season such marquee names include Nebraska, Alabama and Ohio State.

The Cornhuskers haven’t been in the public eye a great deal since winning the national championship in 1997. Frank Solich was a good coach, but wasn’t a great recruiter and Bill Callahan would be wise to stay two states away from Nebraska. Bo Pelini has brought back the Husker mentality of playing hard-nosed defense and placed the offense in the hands of able assistant coaches. With a Top 12 defense and quality offense, the covers should keep coming in Husker Nation.

When Nick Saban was hired, everyone figured it was just a matter of time before Alabama was a national power again and were they ever right. Alabama is a physically dominant team on both sides of the ball and since Saban has been able to bring in these type of players, the Crimson Tide are rolling with 14-6 ATS record in the regular season the last two years.

It’s hard to imagine a name like Ohio State not being given their due, but the Buckeyes just go about their business and keeping winning games. This is far from one of coach Jim Tressel’s best squads in Columbus and sports bettors have been able to take advantage of the situation with oddsmakers dissing them to a certain extent. A couple points to remember about Tressel teams that have Buckeye leaves on helmets. Ohio State won’t cover all the time, but they seldom lose when they are not supposed. In 45 regular games the Buckeyes have been favored by 10 or more points since 2001, they’ve lost only three times, including at Purdue last Saturday. Since “The Vest” was in his second year, Ohio State has never had a losing ATS record on the season (52-38 ATS).

The final part of going Green is value. The whole aspect of doing what is right for the world doesn’t come easy; you have to work for it. A lot of time it costs money and energy spent in terms of consumable workload. The beauty of the putting in the time is there can be a payoff in the end.

Searching thru figures to find teams that have a stellar defense like Connecticut is invaluable to Going Green. Coach Randy Edsall had built a program on defense and though the Huskies offense can make an adult more squeamish than a Six Flags rollercoaster ride, few people constantly monitor every penny they make or lose. The Huskies bring home the money.

The MAC conference generally draws about as much attention as a Carly Simon comeback (google to see how many CD’s she sold with last project). This makes a team like Central Michigan a valuable commodity. The Chippewas have been putting up outstanding offensive numbers since Dan LeFevour arrived at Mt. Pleasant what seems like eight years ago. LeFevour’s first two years C. Mich was 18-7-1 ATS, however last year without much of a defense, they sank to 5-7 against the spread. With 10 starters back on the defensive side, covering spreads is back to normal for Central Michigan.

Wyoming has scored 10 points or less three different times including being shut out twice, however that hasn’t stopped them from posting 4-3 SU record and sparkling spread mark. The Cowboys have relished the role of underdog and are 4-1 against the spread in that situation. With the offense lagging, Wyoming’s defense has raised the level of their play in 2009 with its eight returning starters. Take away the 41 points they allowed to No. 3 Texas and these Cowboys have permitted just 17.7 points per game.

Our hope this has been a valuable lesson in understanding some of the elements of what it takes and what it means to Go Green. Now is the time to get it right since Dec. 5 is the last day to have everything in order before a different type of opportunity presents itself for going even further Green, with the bowl season.

Don’t Go Bowling for Fun – Execute to Win

All the bowl games are set with a wide spectrum of choices for fans and bettors alike. With 34 choices spread out over 20 days, it is very easy to get caught up in having the desire to wager on every game. What anyone does is their business, however it is wise to take a step back and take this all in. One of the real advantages for bettors in this position is time, so make sure not to waste it.

It is best to start with fundamental handicapping to establish a base. Here is where you break apart what a team has done running and passing the ball and stopping the run and the pass. When doing this it is best to use the overall statistics as a snap shot and not have it become the whole picture. The reason is every team is essentially different in some aspects from what they were in September. Thus it is important to understand how any team has played from November until the end of the season. Along the same lines it is also wise to use the numbers for how a team played on the road. Here is a simple exercise you can do to seek strengths or weaknesses among the 68 teams competing in the bowl game. Using Excel spreadsheet or the trusty paper and pencil, put the match-ups together using the following categories, seeking the national rankings 1-119 and make sure to leave a column open next to number used:

*Yards rushing
*Points per game
*Total yards per game
*Yards passing
*Yards per point

Remember, defense may win championships, but offense wins bowl games. After you have completed this, next fill in how these various teams have performed on the road (Hawaii being only true exception) right next numbers you previously listed. The point of this is to find out how teams perform on the road compared to playing all games. If you find real disparity, now you have the makings of a fundamental difference in how a team plays and this should be duly noted. Repeat the process for defensive numbers.

The reason I listed running yards first, is I feel it is the single most important number in fundamental handicapping for bowl games. Being able to run the ball or stop the run is about desire and goes to the very core of the game. The minimum layoff any team will have is Navy, who is playing just two weeks after last game and Ohio State will once again have the longest layoff, having last played on December 22. To execute the passing game, timing and repetitiveness are the most important factors. With these types of layoffs, it is easy to get stale no matter how hard you practice, as game speed is far different than practice. The running game is about getting off the ball and knocking somebody down and a runner willing to hit the hole with abandon. Of course skill is required; however a rough and tumble attitude will carry a team a long way.

While throwing out words like desire and attitude, this is another large component in looking at bowl match-ups. What teams are excited to go to a bowl game and what teams are “settling” for the bowl experience?

Wake Forest ended up with just a 7-5 season and a revenge game would seem to be a motivator having lost to Navy already this season, but if you didn’t respect them the first time, why would the Demon Deacons now? South Florida plays in the new St. Petersburg Bowl, not far from home, but is that enough of a reason to be charged up after losing four of last five contests facing 6-6 Memphis? Other teams that could be flat emotionally are Missouri off two bad losses, LSU with three straight defeats and a national championship plays in the Chick-fil-A Bowl in a virtual home game for Georgia Tech. Can Texas Tech and Alabama overcome initial losses late in the season and beat hungry quality opponents?

Other schools might be genuinely excited about bowl assignments. Arizona will have first bowl experience in a decade and not that far from home in Las Vegas. California closed the season with 4-2 record and plays in nearby San Francisco against Miami-Fl, who lost last games and might bring 50 fans plus alum that live in the Bay Area. Rice will charged up, playing in home city at the Texas Bowl and having just second bowl experience since 1949. Mississippi goes bowling for the first time since 2003 at the Cotton Bowl and Cincinnati plays in first major bowl game in school history as Big East champions.

Another factor to consider is strength of a conference. This year, much like the national scene, it was hard to pick a clear conference or two that stood above the rest. The SEC always gets all the love, but beyond Florida and Alabama, clear weaknesses were exposed in and out of conference play. In fact five of the other six teams from this league are underdogs in their respective games. The Big 12 was all over prime time having unprecedented talent at the quarterback position, including Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford and runner-up Colt McCoy. The conference ended up with five of the top nine scoring teams in the country, which also means we all will find how good or bad those defenses were against teams from other leagues. The Big East was bullied in non-conference play and is unlikely to draw much action from bettors. The Big East was actually rated ahead of the Pac-10 in the Sagarin ratings; however that takes into consideration all teams in the league. The Big East had Syracuse to drop their rating, while the Pac-10 had the twin Washington universities to lower there figures. Studying the lines, the lowly Pac-10 is favored in four of their five bowl games and the only underdog is Oregon, who scores 155 points in last three outings.

The Big Ten secured seven slots, mostly because they travel well to get out of bad weather and only Iowa is presently listed as favorite among the group. If you want a shocker, try this on, the aforementioned Sagarin Ratings have the ACC as the top conference in the country. That is a crazy notion, considering they sent the team with the worst record (9-4) Virginia Tech to a BCS Bowl. Nonetheless, the ACC had the best non-conference record among all leagues and is favored in five of its nine post-season conflicts.

One league you will see a great deal is Conference USA, with six teams, likely assuring five or six Over plays on the total, being an offense first – defense second, football conference. The Mountain West Conference had one of their better years in recent memory, with three teams going being Top 25 material most of the season, with 12-0 Utah the strongest. Of the five teams invited to play ball, only TCU is a favorite in the Poinsettia Bowl.

Other points to consider are quarterback play. All the Big 12 teams will have a leg up in this area, being superior in this category. As it turns out, that is among the reasons why the SEC has so many underdogs this bowl season. Rice with Chase Clement, Rutgers with Mike Teel and Nevada with Colin Kaepernick, all deserve an extra look, because these quarterbacks have proven themselves all season. Conversely, expecting Miami-Fl, Maryland and Connecticut to come from behind should they trail by 10 points in their games might be asking too much.

Another point to follow is betting strategy. Most bettors prefer favorites, and a select group will love to play underdogs, both strategies are flawed. The bowls are essentially no different than the regular season. In the last three years of bowl games, the straight up winner is 70-20-2 against the spread, winning 77.7 percent of the time. This points to the simplest and at the same time most complex answer- determine the winner of the game and the money will come to you.

Lastly check out websites relating to the teams in specific games about two weeks prior to the bowl. From informational standpoint, the investigative handicapper can often find nuggets relating to the goals of a coach in a bowl game. If the game is a reward for the season, sometimes those teams come in loose and unfocused. If a coach like say Brian Kelly of Cincinnati is in charge, he is all about demands and pushing his team and will likely have them more focused.

If you have had good, bad or great season in wagering on college football, utilize the time wisely and finish the season with a flourish, loaded with the right information.

ACC/Big Ten Challenge

The Big Ten jetted to 1-0 lead with Wisconsin taking down Virginia Tech 74-72 yesterday and based on the previous results of this event, they better relish it while they can. Tonight five more games will be played, with Duke at Purdue being the showcase contest. If and it is a really big if, the Big Ten wants a realistic chance to finally win The Challenge, they have to hold serve as home favorites tonight, being favored in three of the five games on their home court. All lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

Ohio State at Miami-FL (-8) ESPN 7:00E

The Hurricanes are in the group of teams right behind North Carolina and Duke, trying to make noise this season in the ACC. Miami is 4-1 (2-1 ATS), with only loss coming to second-ranked Connecticut 76-63. Guard Jack McClinton is the team’s leading scorer and catalyst from a team that welcomed back four starters and is 11-1 ATS in non-conference action.

Ohio State (3-0, 2-1 ATS) held Samford to 22 points, not for the half, but for the game. They will be tested more severely today, against what might be the best perimeter shooting team in the ACC. The Buckeyes have had to rebuild for the second straight season and have wing David Lighty and F Evan Turner to fall back on. Ohio State has another very good freshman class; however this will be their first road adventure, though in the past this has not been a problem with 14-5 ATS mark after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite.

Ohio State is 2-5 in this challenge and Miami 0-2, but the edge has to go veteran Canes at home with 10-2 ATS record after playing a home game.

Iowa at Boston College (-8) ESPNU 7:00E

Boston College (4-2, 4-1 ATS) fell behind Purdue by 19-points in New York and rallied to within seven before losing. They came from behind to beat UAB in the NIT third place game 83-77 as three-point underdogs. G Tyrese Rice is what makes these Eagles fly and B.C. is 14-4 ATS after three consecutive non-conference games.

Second year coach Frank Lickliter has thrown three freshman into the fray, seeing this as his future and thus far they have responded well with 6-1 (3-1 ATS) record, including 65-63 upset of Kansas State, despite shooting 36.4 percent. Sophomore point guard Jeff Peterson has been an early stabilizer and the Hawkeyes have shot the ball well early at 49.8 percent. Iowa doesn’t appear to be in a favorable situation, but could cover the number if they play physical with Rice like St. Louis did in holding him to six points.

Iowa, like most Big Ten teams has losing record in this event at 2-5 and Boston College is 0-2 in their previous tries.

Clemson at Illinois (-2) ESPN2 7:30E

Coach Bruce Weber's Fighting Illini take a 6-0 (3-1) record into ACC/Big Ten Challenge battle with fellow unbeaten Clemson (7-0, 2-3 ATS). Illinois has been a surprise, vanquishing Vanderbilt on the road and beating Kent State and Tulsa in San Padre Tournament. Contributions are coming from all top seven players, but the big improvement has come from PG Chester Frazier, who has astonishing 42-to-9 assist-to-turnover ratio. Illinois had one of the best home court edges for years but is only 4-12 ATS since the beginning of last season.

Clemson is a sparking 7-2 in this conference challenge and has returned seven of top 10 players from NCAA Tournament team. K.C. Rivers makes this team flow and Raymond Sykes has brought the energy to the Tigers, with Trevor Booker being a force inside. Clemson is 6-15 ATS after playing a road game over the last three seasons.

This is one of the swing games the ACC has invariably won in this Challenge and how Illinois handles the Clemson pressure defense will directly relate to the outcome.

Duke at Purdue (-2) ESPN 9:00E

Duke (7-0, 4-3 ATS) has a perfect 9-0 record in this battle between well-known conferences and they face an engaging test. The Blue Devils are still perimeter oriented, with any number of players capable of beating opponent off the dribble taking the ball to the rim. Duke is at its best when the leading scorer is to be determined in a game, whether it is Kyle Singler, Lance Thomas or Gerald Henderson. The Dukies are 14-7 after a blowout win by 20 points or more.

Purdue (5-1, 3-2 ATS) is a mere 2-5 in The Challenge, with both wins coming at home. The Boilermakers are coming off disappointing loss to Oklahoma in the NIT final, losing in overtime 87-82, in a game they led almost from start to finish. E’Twaun Moore and Robbie Hummel are the stars of Purdue; nevertheless this is a solid basketball team that plays very good defense and has answers on the offensive end. The Boilers have won 13 in a row at Mackey Arena (10-3 ATS) and are 9-1 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pick over the last three seasons.

Duke has to be considered dangerous in this position, yet Purdue is angry off a loss and rabid crowd could make it challenging on the Blue Devils.

Virginia at Minnesota (-7) ESPN2 9:30E

The first full night off ACC/Big Ten action concludes at The Barn in Minnesota. The Golden Gophers (6-0, 2-2 ATS) are a youthful bunch, having lost top three scorers from a year ago. Coach Tubby Smith made up a schedule of home games versus beatable opponents, with this being one of the more engaging encounters. Minnesota has had their share of early season injuries in the frontcourt, leaving PG Al Nolen to soldier the load. Coach Smith hopes good shooting fortune continues, being 10-0 ATS after a game where they made 60 percent of their shots or better.

Virginia (3-2, 1-1 ATS) has been sluggish to start a new campaign, due to lack of defense. Teams are shooting 47.4 percent against the Cavaliers, as coach Dave Leitao continues to tinker with his lineup, using five different combinations in five games. Hard to determine what Virginia will do off it worst performance in loss to Liberty and best effort in narrow defeat to Syracuse 73-70 as 16-point underdogs. After years of being a laughable road team (34-57 ATS as road underdogs), Virginia is 11-6 against the spread the last few seasons.

With two inexperienced squads, count this as another swing game.

College Football Game Writeups

The old Florida football coach returns for a second trip to many of his greatest triumphs. Steve Spurrier arrives in Gainesville with a ranked South Carolina club, trying to defeat what many consider the best team in the country today. Ohio State was thought to be that team by many in August; instead they are seeking revenge at Illinois. The ACC continues to try to solve convoluted mess with North Carolina and Maryland winner staying in contention. Texas still has hopes to win the Big 12 South and can’t slip up on the road against risky Kansas club. Oregon State still has the inside track to win the Pac-10 and go to Rose Bowl for the first since 1965 and has to defeat Cal at home to keep advancing.

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