Making it a December to remember

Somebody in this country has been less affected by the recession, as Lexus is still trotting out those car commercials encouraging those that have the financial means to stay above the mayhem and fork over the cash for a luxury car. While that might be out of most working stiffs price range, we as NFL sports bettors can still at least add to the nest egg when it comes down to the last three weeks of the NFL season. (Used the picture of Detroit since they fit two systems listed in this article this week)

One of the realities every sports bettor must face at the end of another season is the dreaded “this team has to win”. In wagering talk, if ever there was a situation set up for a person to be – trapped - it is following that line of thinking.

There is no doubt teams have to win to make the playoffs, however many characteristics can prevent them from doing so. Among them is pressure, not playing well at the end of the season, injuries or a care-free opponent who has nothing to lose. All of these end up being reasons for failure instead of success.

Instead of looking at situations that appear to be favorable, go instead with ones that are. December is a cold, cruel month, (as many of you in the northern part of the United States recently felt), yet there are circumstances that will warm your heart and heat up your wagering account with a little work and determination.

In December, Play On a home underdog when both teams scored 10 or fewer points in previous contest.

Reason: With each team off a less than satisfactory offense performance, the home team has the added benefit of playing before the home fans. The oddsmakers are also telling us the visiting team is the better club, thus we have a motivated team at home off a lousy offensive performance. (13-5 ATS L23Y)

In December, Play Against a home favorite of three or less when both teams are coming off a loss.

Reason: By now all the teams fighting for the playoffs are established. Any team working to play in the postseason would at least warrant a standard NFL home field advantage of three points. If not, the oddsmaker is suggesting the home team is not worthy of supporting the conventional figure associated with home teams and is likely beatable. Seems like a good spot to take the points and consider the money line on the visitor. (41-13-1 ATS L18Y)

In December, Play On a home team off a SU home win if they have at least one extra day of rest.

Reason: At this time of year, every player that has played a full campaign is beat-up and has lots of aches and pains. Being able to play consecutive home games is a real value and any additional rest vs. opponent that is also weary and having to travel is a substantial edge. (22-10-1 ATS L19Y)

In December, Play Against any away favorite that scored 28 or more points in last outing.

Reason: Following the logic here, the public tends to follow the results of the previous game instead of looking at a body of work and more specifically the last three or four games teams have played. Unless a team is an offensive juggernaut, scoring four or more touchdowns is a good day at the office. Place this team in the role of road chalk off a solid scoring game, especially if that is six or more points better than their season average and we have the numbers in our favor. (55-30 ATS L11Y and 15-6 ATS the last three years)

In the final four weeks of the season, play on a non-conference home team that won outright as an away underdog.

Reason: All victories accumulated at the end of the season are earned, especially on the road. Winning in the visiting uniforms is a real boost for the home team coming into next contest. The road team circumstances could be varied. Winning or losing a non-conference game may not affect standings, especially if they have a division game or two left on the schedule. Another factor is unfamiliarity, as these teams are meeting every four years and if the visiting squad has division encounter on tap, can the bettor be assured of top effort, unlikely. (38-16 ATS, L20Y)

Play On a non-conference home favorite off a division win of 14 or more points, in the last month of the season.

Reason: Similar to last situation, this system is about putting in a satisfying performance and building momentum. The home team did a number on division foe and non-conference games tend to be looser because teams not knowing opponents’ tendencies as much, due to not playing them as frequently. Backing the home favorite in this spot has been a sound investment. (12-4, ATS L15Y)

Play Against a double digit road favorite facing a division rival in the last four weeks of the season.

Reason: No matter the disparity in talent, beating a division companion by 10 or more points on the road is difficult any time of the year. This is further enhanced since the oddsmakers are telling us the road team is likely in the playoff hunt and the home team is not. For the home underdog, this might be the last game on the schedule to really get fired up about and they will have the support of those in attendance and can take pride in potentially damaging their rival’s postseason plans. Pittsburgh and New Orleans were both victims in Week 14. (16-5-1 ATS L11Y)

Play On a non-division home underdog if they allowed 175 or more yards rushing in previous game in the last month of the year.

Reason: All coaches try and stay away from placing more emphasis on one game more than another, since the players understand the state of affairs they are dealing with. The head coach and the defensive coordinator are going to be scathing in their comments in the film room about their defense that was pushed around, seemingly from lack of effort and execution in last outing. After listening all week to coaches complain about performing with a sense of urgency, the reportedly inferior home dog plays at or beyond capabilities versus foe not used to facing them. (29-13 ATS, L20Y)

Play On a division home underdog off a home loss in the last four weeks of the season.

Reason: With teams playing just six division games a season, it’s not hard to be motivated for a rivalry conflict, particularly if the public perception is the home squad is the lesser team and needs points to cover a spread. This position is further enhanced off a disappointing home loss that left a bad taste in the team’s collective mouths. A win over division partner is great mouthwash late in the year. Cleveland and Atlanta both covered this past week. (16-5 ATS, L20Y)

Cash in on Conference Play

With the first weekend of October arriving, the leaves are or will be turning colors very shortly, offering a wonderful assortment of shades on the color spectrum. This time of year can also add a collection of “Benjamin Franklin’s” for the sports bettor prepared to rake in profits with the correct knowledge.

With the start of the last quarter of the year, this signifies college football going head first into conference action. Certainly, enough teams will bring in a sacrificial lamb for homecoming or between extremely challenging league games, however for the most part, it’s down and dirty with all your rivals.

This is really the coolest aspect of college football, playing within the conference. Unless there are coaching changes, most schools know what to expect from their opponents, facing them year after year and many of the best and most colorful moments the sport has to offer revolve around conference clashes. Teams might wear a special uniform in hopes of firing up the home underdog to pull the upset after losing to an opposing team for a number of years. Or gamesmanship, like Georgia’s coach Mark Richt used against Florida a couple of seasons ago, having his team run on the field after first touchdown of the game and taking penalty, only to have the favor returned in a different manner the following season by Urban Meyer, who used his three remaining time outs with under 90 seconds to play to prolong the Bulldogs 49-10 butt-whipping.

In college football, trends tend to mean more, as teams have confidence or lack thereof playing different universities with the conference. The SEC has the most head-scratching angles that seemingly come true year after year, and every conference has some of their own that tickle the fancy of those wagering on sports.

To create a realistic look at how teams perform in conference contests, went back to the year the “Blair Witch Project” was released (1999) and broke down this theme into different elements.

The first was the best and worst teams against the spread in league action. Boise State backers absolutely love the beginning of WAC play, since it’s a great time to stop worrying about health care issues and instead make and save money for those later years. The Broncos are 51-25 ATS, a delicious 67.1 percent in conference action, which includes 28-9 against the number as home chalk.

Oregon State has filled the coffers of many a supporter in Pac-10 play with 52-32 spread record, with these eager Beavers 21-10 ATS as Corvallis favorites. In the great state of Texas, a couple lesser known teams have cleaned up nicely, with TCU 44-31-1 ATS (including 26-9 ATS as home faves), mostly as favorites. The Rice Owls are spooking 48-30-1 ATS in conference play, including a FBS best 16-2-1 ATS as home underdogs.

Of course all the news is not joyful, as other teams fumble, bumble and stumble in league action. Indiana and covering Big Ten spreads is as bad a match as Lamar Odom and Khloe Kardashian, with the Hoosiers a losing 32-49 ATS. Washington’s USC upset doesn’t change the fact of over a decade of misery at 29-54-2 ATS. Other loathsome schools include Baylor at 28-50-2 ATS, Mississippi State from the SEC at 34-47-1 ATS and the always popular Fresno State, who falls apart faster than Lindsey Lohan in WAC action with 29-49-2 against the spread record.

If you compare the best winners and losers as home favorites, the list is definitely in favor of the latter. Big time programs like Alabama (9-19 ATS) and LSU (13-28 ATS) are diabolical home favorites, based on winning reputations and evil oddsmakers preying on backers appetites for playing them. The aforementioned Huskies of Washington are 3-17-1 and fellow Pac-10 partner Arizona is 4-13 ATS as home favorites. In the betting capital of the United States, Las Vegas, they have the Rebels, who have been dreadful for a long time, sporting 2-12 ATS home favorite record. North Carolina’s blue uniforms may look eye-pleasing, but a 4-13 ATS mark when they wear them as ACC faves is plain ugly.

Thank goodness for schools like Toledo at 22-11 ATS and Hawaii at 19-11 ATS, to carry the torch for quality home favorites.

Every sports bettor from the time they laid five bucks on their very first wager has been told to find the home underdog, giving them two chances to win. The resurgence of Mississippi’s football program means less chances of improving on 13-5 spread record as home underdogs at The Grove. A couple of under the wire schools thrive when catching points on campus, UAB is 11-4-2 ATS and equally sleepy Louisiana Tech is 8-3 versus the oddsmaker. If ever a university had the right nickname for this study assignment, it is Northern Illinois, whose Huskies are 8-2 ATS as home dogs. Minnesota is 6-12 ATS; however that might change with new on-campus digs when in underdog role. Baylor, well it’s going to take awhile for coach Art Briles to change mindset of team that if 9-24-1 ATS as Big 12 home team catching.

It takes the courage of a MMA fighter to want to consistently back a college football road underdog, no matter how points you receive. So many factors are working against you to win. The emotion of the home crowd, the other team being more talented as the linemaker suggests by the spread he releases and trying to avoid feeling sorry for yourselves when things don’t go your way. T. Boone Pickens may be a panjandrum who can afford to build lots of things with his money, but he can’t buy his way out of beloved Cowboys of Oklahoma State having 10-20 ATS road dog record. Connecticut has been very respectable since joining the Big East in football in 2004, but these Huskies have been collared to the porch with 3-12 ATS mark as the road pooch. Houston’s high scoring offense doesn’t play as well on the road as dogs with 7-14 ATS record. The Hoosiers of Indiana need more than a pep talk to improve 13-25 ATS road record in white uniforms. The mighty university from Monroe, LA is not cowardly, with 17-5 ATS pronouncement as visiting underdogs.

There are a few cross-over road dogs that can make cash. Texas A&M may bury Aggies fans with 8-18 ATS record as Big 12 road pups, nevertheless, they are 10-5-2 ATS as home dogs. San Jose State doesn’t gather much attention, especially with 10-20 road figure against the spread, however they are super Spartans as road favorites showing nine covers in 11 tries.

Top ranked Florida is on 6-1 ATS run as a road favorite and they will be on the hunt for more this season. The rest of college football isn’t so lucky and talented. UCLA has been about as overrated as they come in this spot with 4-16 ATS mark. Wake Forest, UTEP and Nebraska are worse than airline baggage fees at 3-8 ATS giving points to home-standing schools. The state of Idaho is a great exporter of potatoes; but the Vandals are stealing profits as road faves, failing to cover 75 percent of the time in a dozen attempts. N.C. State should avoid wearing favorite cap away from Raleigh as 3-12 ATS record proves.

Always make the time to be prepared for conference football success, because capitalism works best with honest hard work and no shortcuts to profits.

San Francisco posting Giant betting numbers at home

Remember when the Los Angeles Dodgers started the season by winning their first 13 home games of the season, setting modern day record. Since then they are 15-13, still with the best overall home record, however, that could end tonight and the Dodgers have already been passed as the best bet to play in Major League Baseball by a fellow division rival.

The San Francisco Giants (45-37, +9.8 units) decided to retool what was the oldest team in the big leagues, infusing younger players with the end of the Barry Bonds era. The Giants front office was comfortable with their pitching staff, having Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum at the top of the rotation and Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez ready to emerge as youthful starters. They were supplemented with veterans Barry Zito and Randy Johnson, giving San Francisco a chance to be .500 team if the offense showed any life.

Though Sanchez and not worked out to this point, being replaced by 26-year old Ryan Sadowski at this moment, the Giants trail the Dodgers by seven games in the NL West, but have the second best record in the National League, thanks to pitching and home record. The Giants have the best ERA in the majors at 3.53 and are 27-13 at AT&T Park, picking up +13 units for supporters.

San Francisco hurlers lead baseball in strikeouts and have learned to filter fly-balls to the enormous centerfield area that looks as big as The Bay itself. With last night’s 5-4 win over Florida (43-41, +3.1 units), manager Bruce Bochy’s club is 9-3 against the NL East and have won six of last seven games on home turf.

The Giants are listed as home underdog (11-7, +5.9 units) at Bookmaker.com, thanks to pitching matchup. Barry Zito started the year fairly well, but suffered without much run support. Since then, he’s looked pretty much like the same overpaid pitcher that came across the Bay, with 4-8 record and 4.82 ERA. Zito and his teammates are +115 dogs, with total Un8. Combined, they are 4-10 in Zito’s last 14 starts as a home pooch of +110 to +150.

Florida will send out their ace Josh Johnson (7-1, 2.76), to slow down San Fran. Johnson has 14 quality starts in 17 tries in 2009, with sterling 1.128 WHIP and a better than 3-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio. The Marlins are 12-2 when Johnson starts as favorite and have won last nine outings when the right-hander has been the Game 2 starter. Florida is 15-5 OVER in road games after four straight contests where they stranded seven or less runners on base.

Despite 2.76 ERA against the Giants, Johnson has not defeated San Francisco in three previous attempts, while Zito is 3-0, conceding more than one run once in four starts versus the Fish.
First pitch is set for 7:15 Pacific and this contest is available in local markets as well as on MLB.TV, with the Giants 15-3 OVER in home games in July games.