You have to hand to the NFL, two and a half months after the last meaningful football game was played and more than three months before training camps open, they have managed to be the most talked about sport on the day they released their schedule for the 2008 season. This dominated the conversation on talk radio from coast-to-coast and ESPN took up two hours of prime real estate to bring Chris Carter and Ron Jaworski into your living rooms to discuss all the possibilities.
Our preference here at the 3Daily Winners is to deal in realities, since trying to guess what will be the top games for next season is nearly impossible, especially trying to come up with complete list. Consider only 20 of the last 36 teams (55.5 percent) the last three years have made the NFL playoffs the following year. It was easy to pinpoint a regular season contest between New England at Indianapolis on Nov.4 was going to be an important game; however nobody could have forecasted a late November Green Bay at Dallas tilt would have almost as much importance. In April, we just have to stick with the facts and for those who wager, facts, as opposed to speculation, win far more bets.
The AFC North draws the NFC East, contributing to them having four teams in the top eight in toughest schedules for upcoming season, based on 2007 results. The four teams will face opponents that had a combined record of 574-540, a 56 percent winning percentage.
Pittsburgh drew the most challenging lot at 153-103, 59.8 percent. The Steelers, besides drawing the always competitive NFC East, and having six rugged divisional battles, also picked up four encounters with arguably professional football’s best division, the AFC South. Throw in matchups at New England on Nov.30 and Pitt hosting San Diego two weeks prior and a pretty easy argument can be made today, coach Mike Tomlin will have 16 games he will have to prepare his squad for, with nary a break. Blindly looking at complete schedule, the only Pittsburgh game that might be (+) or (-) seven points or higher is the Patriots.
Indianapolis on paper falls into the number two spot, taking on opponents with 152-104 mark. Their own division figures to have bumpy contests, yet somebody still has to step up and prove they can beat the Colts, otherwise until further notice; they are still the kings of the division. Indianapolis will be playing in new stadium, which to a certain degree negates home field advantage, especially in the front part of the schedule. The Colts, like the rest of division, will take on the NFC North, making their claim as having the second toughest schedule hard to read, as these teams have been volatile the last few seasons. After a bye in Week four, Indy will play four of next six on the road. They will venture to towns like, Houston, Green Bay, Tennessee and Pittsburgh. Between travels to the Titans and Steelers, that team from the Boston area, will return for another early November visit.
For conspiracy theorists, who can’t stand New England, their schedule is tailor made for those thinking the NFL is covering up something, like the folks who talk about Roswell, New Mexico. Of course all schedules are based on formulas predetermined, still when a team goes thru the regular season undefeated and faces teams that were 99-157 (38.7 percent), its hard not to raise an eyebrow. The Patriots would have more taxing slate if the teams in there own division would supply more competitive games. New England was 12-5 ATS most recently in the AFC East, before oddsmakers threw a couple of 20+ numbers for them to overcome against the Jets and Miami. Owner Robert Kraft’s club also drew the West Divisions from each conference, both who presently look average at best. It will be interesting to see how the organization approaches four trips to the Pacific Time zone, as they have two sets of these. Will they stay out West to prepare for a second game in that area or do they add to wear and tear of flying back and forth?
Don’t expect oddsmakers to cut bettors any slack on the Pats. After putting gargantuan numbers late last season, they won’t hesitate a second to do so again to balance or place the action in their favor.
Moving on, questions are raised about the importance of trying to determine what schedules mean before a single game is played. One area to dig into is how Super Bowl champions perform the next season. In breaking down the last six Lombardi trophy winners, there schedule of opponents winning percentage turned out be pretty accurate, after the season, as compared to before the year started. The largest gap was the 2003 Patriots who had the eighth toughest schedule coming in and exited with the 22nd hardest leaving. The difference was 52.7 percent compared to 48.4 percent. For New York Giants backers and those seeking an edge, this was the only team of the prior five Super Bowl champs to post a winning spread record the next season, as they marched to back-to-back titles. The other four champs were 29-34-1 ATS.
2007 Giants TBD
2006 Indianapolis 12-4 8-8 ATS
2005 Pittsburgh 8-8 7-9 ATS
2004 New England 10-6 8-8 ATS
2003 New England 14-2 11-3-2 ATS
2002 Tampa Bay 7-9 6-9-1 ATS
The next question pertains to the most difficult schedules prior to the season, what does it mean for a teams record and against the spread? One element that has to be mentioned is the relative strength of the team. If any NFL squad is already a poor outfit, a more arduous slate will likely prevent any real gains in terms of wins and losses. If another club is a perennial playoff contender, they could be affected either positively or negatively, based on how they play in conjunction with higher grade of opposition.
In 2007, Oakland came into the season with worst record and hardest schedule. The Silver and Black showed modest improvement, raising record to 4-12 and 6-10 ATS. Buffalo was tied with the Raiders, facing most burdensome sked and was 7-9 with 10-6 ATS mark. In 2006, The Giants were off a playoff season was tied with Cincinnati with he most grueling card. New York, after a fast start, faded late and had to win last game of the regular season to finish 8-8 (7-8-1 ATS), to return to postseason. The Bengals were believed to be the team on the rise; however the scheduling gods got them and they were 8-8, with 8-7-1 ATS record. Overall, the last 11 teams that went into the year with the most strenuous slate were 85-83-8 against the spread.
A few sportsbooks will offer props on teams to make the playoffs. If you can find one that lists any of the teams that have the hardest schedule, should you place wager for or against? It would not be wise to book a hotel in Pittsburgh for a Steelers postseason party, as only three of the last 11 teams that played trying agenda made the playoffs.
The opposite end of the spectrum will come into question again in 2008. Teams that have had the easiest program to work around have only made the playoffs once of the last seven squads trying to work through what was thought to be easier schedule. Only the 2003 Seattle Seahawks at 10-6, made the NFL playoffs. This was a sorry grouping, with 44-68 record and 50-60-2 ATS mark.
A few observations………….
Bettors will have plenty of time to see what they think about Green Bay starting another quarterback for the first time since 1992, when Aaron Rodgers goes under center on Sept. 8, a Monday night affair with division foe Minnesota.
This is just the beginning, as Buffalo will start with one “home” game in Toronto on Dec.7. With Buffalo’s decaying population and reports as many a 20 percent of season ticket holders coming from north of the border, look for the Bills to have similar arrangement the Packers used to have with Milwaukee in divvying up home games.
Chicago drew the unwanted honor of being the only team to play three consecutive road games, though none are far away. In order, the Bears are at Green Bay, St. Louis and Minnesota. Conversely, the NFL schedule maker rewards them with three straight home contests right afterwards in December. The first two are against warm weather-types, Jacksonville and New Orleans in five days, on a Sunday-Thursday swing. If Da Bears could win both at Soldiers Field, they will have 11 days to prepare for Favre-less Packers.
San Diego will accumulate the most frequent flyer miles, a whopping 33, 516 air miles. The Chargers will make four trips into the Eastern Time zone, plus a sojourn to London. At least the league sort of helped out San Diego in regards to flying to England, playing in Buffalo the week before, shortening distance dramatically, if not improving home lives.
On the subject of travel, why is New Orleans burdened with having to go to London and losing second home game in four years? It was bad enough during Hurricane Katrina; the NFL had the Saints charade as “home” team in the Meadowlands versus the Giants, but to take away another game out of the Bayou! Even San Diego General Manager A.J. Smith, whose team is the visitor, is puzzled why New Orleans was shafted again. "Why do we have the [eight] home games, and all of a sudden the people in New Orleans don't have an opportunity; they've lost one? I don't know," Smith said. "I'm sure they have a system. Maybe it's a coin flip.'' According to NFL spokesperson Michael Signora, no coin flip was involved. Signora said it simply was "a league decision." Nice.
About Me
Do you really want to know about me? My name is Doug Upstone. I’ve been involved in the sports handicapping in some form or another entire adult life.
Nobody, I repeat nobody, watches and studies the games more than I do. I have game notes and observations dating back almost two decades. I’m a process person, meaning I have power ratings in different sports and like to determine if the lines are accurate, and I definitely start with the fundamentals when handicapping games.
This blog will be about people wanting to learn about sports. I’ve worked diligently to get to this point and have a group of “friends” who are not afraid to wager on sports, they are good and have the cash to back it up. Their selections will be on this site in the not too distant future. The actual creator behind this blog is Paul Buck, who has a strong desire to stay out of the limelight, and is part of the Left Coast Connection, which will be explained later.
Of course a blog is about writing and reading, I’ve learned the basic concepts of both. The whole point is to learn something you didn’t know and have it be useful in your knowledge of sports and wagering if you care to.
Nobody, I repeat nobody, watches and studies the games more than I do. I have game notes and observations dating back almost two decades. I’m a process person, meaning I have power ratings in different sports and like to determine if the lines are accurate, and I definitely start with the fundamentals when handicapping games.
This blog will be about people wanting to learn about sports. I’ve worked diligently to get to this point and have a group of “friends” who are not afraid to wager on sports, they are good and have the cash to back it up. Their selections will be on this site in the not too distant future. The actual creator behind this blog is Paul Buck, who has a strong desire to stay out of the limelight, and is part of the Left Coast Connection, which will be explained later.
Of course a blog is about writing and reading, I’ve learned the basic concepts of both. The whole point is to learn something you didn’t know and have it be useful in your knowledge of sports and wagering if you care to.
Greg Maddux - Go Figure
Sometimes sports makes absolutely no sense. Gregg Maddux is a first ballot Hall of Famer five years after he retires, no question. He's among the smartest pitcher in this or any era, as he never had a Randy Johnson fastball, or a knee buckling curve. Maddux has expertly been able to spot the ball where he needed and made hitters swing at his pitches. For those old school enough to remember Catfish Hunter with Oakland and the Yankees, very similar.
For all his greatness, the Arizona Diamondbacks have been his Waterloo. After three sharp efforts in 2008, leading to the 42-year old hurler to own 2.00 ERA, be started in the desert Friday night and was blown up for six runs in the first inning by Arizona and had to suck it up, with the Padres having no other pitchers available, having played 22-innings the night prior. Maddux ended up throwing 113 pitches in seven innings, be thumped for 13 hits and nine runs.
Since joining the league in 1997, the D-Backs are 13-2 versus Maddux, hanging a ERA well over 5 on him. When it comes to Arizona, you'd have to believe Maddux is just snake bit.
Saturday Betting Notes
Last night went 3-2 in bases, with winners on St. Louis, Arizona and Tex/Bos.-Over. Kansas City and the Dodgers were losers. Can't complain, being fifth in MLB at FSM. Stepped out on Arizona, playing them at -167 money line. Normally don't play favorites above -150, especially in April; however the Snakes were in a system that was 22-3, thus made the wager. Arizona ended up winning 9-0.
Took Washington and Dallas as NBA series plays. I'm not sold that Cleveland is really any good right now. Many believe King James can lift the Cavs all by himself to win this series. While that sounds great, who does he pass the ball to for dependable scoring? Ben Wallace is a absolute liability on offense, meaning even a so-so defensive team like the Wizards can guard five on four. Washington hung in their the whole season, overcoming injuries and is as healthy as they have been all year. Three very good players against one great one, Washington wins.
Some people don't believe New Orleans lack of playoff experience is a detriment, quite the contrary in my opinion. I see it causing them problems and Dallas really has no pressure on them being the underdog. I'm first in line to believe the Mavs are mentally weak and can fall apart like muffin. Yet now they have no expectations and sting Hornets advancing.
I did pass on Dallas today with the +4.5 and even though they are 14-2 ATS as playoff dogs, don't like the fact they drilled New Orleans at home Wednesday.
Today playing the White Sox to win, and took Washington Caps to win game five. Actually liked Brewers and Royals also, but decided to pass because Suppan hasn't gotten anybody out this season and K.C. currently is offensively challenged.
Took Washington and Dallas as NBA series plays. I'm not sold that Cleveland is really any good right now. Many believe King James can lift the Cavs all by himself to win this series. While that sounds great, who does he pass the ball to for dependable scoring? Ben Wallace is a absolute liability on offense, meaning even a so-so defensive team like the Wizards can guard five on four. Washington hung in their the whole season, overcoming injuries and is as healthy as they have been all year. Three very good players against one great one, Washington wins.
Some people don't believe New Orleans lack of playoff experience is a detriment, quite the contrary in my opinion. I see it causing them problems and Dallas really has no pressure on them being the underdog. I'm first in line to believe the Mavs are mentally weak and can fall apart like muffin. Yet now they have no expectations and sting Hornets advancing.
I did pass on Dallas today with the +4.5 and even though they are 14-2 ATS as playoff dogs, don't like the fact they drilled New Orleans at home Wednesday.
Today playing the White Sox to win, and took Washington Caps to win game five. Actually liked Brewers and Royals also, but decided to pass because Suppan hasn't gotten anybody out this season and K.C. currently is offensively challenged.
NBA Playoffs –Key Saturday Game One Info
The first day of the NBA playoffs will have a Western flavor, with three of the contests involving squads from the Western Conference. The one series figuring to be an attention grabber for fans and basketball bettors alike is Phoenix and San Antonio. The Suns loss to the Spurs in the West finals left a bitter taste with suspensions of key players, in rough-house work started by Robert Horry. Upstart New Orleans will try to follow season long success with opening win against Dallas. The other two series on Saturday are 4vs5 matchups, each with a flavor on their own.
(4)Washington at (5) Cleveland (-2.5, 188)
Key Game Info:
LeBron James and his Cleveland teammates will see Washington for the third straight time in the first round. James has said he and the Cavs aren’t going to get caught up in trashing talking; he’ll leave that to Washington. The Wizards DeShawn Stevenson was quoted as saying James is “overrated”. With Washington tired of being eliminated by Cleveland and the Cavaliers not want to hear “talk”, intensity level is expected to be a fever pitch.
Key Side Trends:
-Wizards are 21-10 ATS as a road underdog this season.
-Wizards are 8-1 ATS with two days rest.
-Cavaliers are 4-12 ATS in home games versus good ball handling teams committing 14 or less turnovers a game this season.
-Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven playoff games as a favorite.
Key Total System:
Play UNDER on all teams like Washington, where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points after going over the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. (31-10, 75.6 percent L3Y)
Season Series: 2-2 SU and ATS, 3-1 OVER
History at Cleveland: Cavaliers 8-2 and 4-6 ATS vs Wizards
(6)Phoenix at (3) San Antonio (-4,194)
Key Game Info:
This game and series has it all. Defense vs Offense, Shaq vs Mr. Fundamental, Bruce Bowen against every Suns fan imaginable. Expect Shaquille O’Neal to be extremely motivated and Amare Stoudemire trying to make immediate statement. Steve Nash and the Suns guards have to take care of the basketball. Suns frontcourt can’t let San Antonio to play volleyball on offensive glass. Spurs will undoubtedly be composed, use every trick in the book to get Phoenix players more worried about things other than the game at hand.
Key Side Trends:
-Suns are 11-2 ATS in road games versus teams who average seven or less steals a game on the season.
-Suns are 5-0 ATS with two days of late.
-Spurs are 14-6 ATS in home games after two or more consecutive wins this season.
-Spurs are 8-19 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less.
Key Total System:
Play UNDER all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points in the first round and first game of the playoffs. (36-12, 75 percent L11Y)
Season Series: Suns 3-1 SU & ATS, 4-0 UNDER
History at San Antonio: Spurs 6-3 and 4-5 ATS vs Suns
(7)Dallas at (2) New Orleans (-4.5, 193)
Key Game Info:
How will New Orleans react in first playoff game? Chris Paul has been the best point guard in the NBA this season and David West is legit All-Star. Peja Stojakovic and Morris Peterson are excellent deep threats and Tyson Chandler is hustler in the paint. Dallas one year ago was the favorite to win NBA title and now is in the role of underdog for this game and the series. The Mavericks could learn from last year and jump on New Orleans early by stealing opening game and putting the pressure on them.
Key Side Trends:
-Mavs are 14-2 ATS as playoff underdogs.
-Mavs are 5-13 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams making 76% or more of their attempts.
-Hornets are 23-14 ATS as a home favorite this season.
-Hornets are 15-4 ATS in a home game when the total is between 190 and 194.5 points.
Key Total System:
Play UNDER all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points after teams like Dallas, after failing to cover four of their last five against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. (29-9, 76.3 percent L5Y)
Season Series: 2-2 SU & ATS, 3-1 OVER
History at New Orleans: Hornets 2-4 and 2-3-1 ATS vs Mavs
(4)Utah at (5) Houston (-1, 186)
Key Game Info:
Must win for Houston, who is without Yao Ming, PG Rafer Alston won’t play and Tracy McGrady is dinged. The Rockets have to control tempo and force the ball out of the hands of Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer, who can be a deadly combination. Though just average defensively, look for coach Jerry Sloan to have his team contest every Houston shot and play fast to wear down Rockets late in the game. A loss by Houston shakes the foundation without enough weapons moving forward.
Key Side Trends:
-Jazz are 0-4 in last four playoff underdog appearances.
-Jazz are 17-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of this season.
-Rockets are 24-10 ATS in the second half of this season.
-Rockets are 9-2-1 ATS facing a team with losing road record.
Key Total System:
Play UNDER all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points, with a good 3PT shooting team like Utah (>=36.5%) against an average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%), in a game involving two good ball handling team (<=14.5 turnovers). (34-16, 68 percent this year)
Season Series: Jazz 2-1 SU & 1-1-1 ATS, 2-1 OVER
History at Houston: Rockets 5-4 and 4-5 ATS vs Jazz
(4)Washington at (5) Cleveland (-2.5, 188)
Key Game Info:
LeBron James and his Cleveland teammates will see Washington for the third straight time in the first round. James has said he and the Cavs aren’t going to get caught up in trashing talking; he’ll leave that to Washington. The Wizards DeShawn Stevenson was quoted as saying James is “overrated”. With Washington tired of being eliminated by Cleveland and the Cavaliers not want to hear “talk”, intensity level is expected to be a fever pitch.
Key Side Trends:
-Wizards are 21-10 ATS as a road underdog this season.
-Wizards are 8-1 ATS with two days rest.
-Cavaliers are 4-12 ATS in home games versus good ball handling teams committing 14 or less turnovers a game this season.
-Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven playoff games as a favorite.
Key Total System:
Play UNDER on all teams like Washington, where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points after going over the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. (31-10, 75.6 percent L3Y)
Season Series: 2-2 SU and ATS, 3-1 OVER
History at Cleveland: Cavaliers 8-2 and 4-6 ATS vs Wizards
(6)Phoenix at (3) San Antonio (-4,194)
Key Game Info:
This game and series has it all. Defense vs Offense, Shaq vs Mr. Fundamental, Bruce Bowen against every Suns fan imaginable. Expect Shaquille O’Neal to be extremely motivated and Amare Stoudemire trying to make immediate statement. Steve Nash and the Suns guards have to take care of the basketball. Suns frontcourt can’t let San Antonio to play volleyball on offensive glass. Spurs will undoubtedly be composed, use every trick in the book to get Phoenix players more worried about things other than the game at hand.
Key Side Trends:
-Suns are 11-2 ATS in road games versus teams who average seven or less steals a game on the season.
-Suns are 5-0 ATS with two days of late.
-Spurs are 14-6 ATS in home games after two or more consecutive wins this season.
-Spurs are 8-19 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less.
Key Total System:
Play UNDER all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points in the first round and first game of the playoffs. (36-12, 75 percent L11Y)
Season Series: Suns 3-1 SU & ATS, 4-0 UNDER
History at San Antonio: Spurs 6-3 and 4-5 ATS vs Suns
(7)Dallas at (2) New Orleans (-4.5, 193)
Key Game Info:
How will New Orleans react in first playoff game? Chris Paul has been the best point guard in the NBA this season and David West is legit All-Star. Peja Stojakovic and Morris Peterson are excellent deep threats and Tyson Chandler is hustler in the paint. Dallas one year ago was the favorite to win NBA title and now is in the role of underdog for this game and the series. The Mavericks could learn from last year and jump on New Orleans early by stealing opening game and putting the pressure on them.
Key Side Trends:
-Mavs are 14-2 ATS as playoff underdogs.
-Mavs are 5-13 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams making 76% or more of their attempts.
-Hornets are 23-14 ATS as a home favorite this season.
-Hornets are 15-4 ATS in a home game when the total is between 190 and 194.5 points.
Key Total System:
Play UNDER all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points after teams like Dallas, after failing to cover four of their last five against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. (29-9, 76.3 percent L5Y)
Season Series: 2-2 SU & ATS, 3-1 OVER
History at New Orleans: Hornets 2-4 and 2-3-1 ATS vs Mavs
(4)Utah at (5) Houston (-1, 186)
Key Game Info:
Must win for Houston, who is without Yao Ming, PG Rafer Alston won’t play and Tracy McGrady is dinged. The Rockets have to control tempo and force the ball out of the hands of Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer, who can be a deadly combination. Though just average defensively, look for coach Jerry Sloan to have his team contest every Houston shot and play fast to wear down Rockets late in the game. A loss by Houston shakes the foundation without enough weapons moving forward.
Key Side Trends:
-Jazz are 0-4 in last four playoff underdog appearances.
-Jazz are 17-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of this season.
-Rockets are 24-10 ATS in the second half of this season.
-Rockets are 9-2-1 ATS facing a team with losing road record.
Key Total System:
Play UNDER all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points, with a good 3PT shooting team like Utah (>=36.5%) against an average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%), in a game involving two good ball handling team (<=14.5 turnovers). (34-16, 68 percent this year)
Season Series: Jazz 2-1 SU & 1-1-1 ATS, 2-1 OVER
History at Houston: Rockets 5-4 and 4-5 ATS vs Jazz
Miguel Tejada comes of age
Don't you just love Miguel Tejada. For starters Baltimore moves him to Houston to remove the 14, 811, 414.00 salary he has coming in 2008. (Those two commas mean millions) He's being investigated by the Justice Department for steroid use and might be brought in at some point to testify. Now the latest news, for the Astros to find out, their 14 million shortstop is 33 years old, not 31 as they most likely believed.It has often been reported and an area of concern, Dominican Republic players are often older than alleged age. ESPN E:60 correspondent Tom Farrey presented Tejada with a copy of a birth certificate, filed by his father in his hometown of Bani, that showed he was born on May 25, 1974 on 1976. (At least the date is the same) Tejada upon being presented with this information, got up and left the interview.
Houston management now having even more egg on their face, wea quick to spin the situation. "Fact of the matter is that he plays like he's 25, so I don't think it really matters a whole lot," Astros GM Ed Wade told the Houston Chronicle. Good one Ed, 33-year old shortstop making 14 mil. I wonder if GM Billy Beane is interested in Oakland about bring back one of his guys?
Have you seen Kansas City Royals starting pitchers yet? Kansas City isn't going to win the AL Central this year, but they might have three quality starting pitchers, which is more than many major league teams can say. Gil Meche is at the top of the rotation and truthfully he's been mediocre; however look for him to come around. Behind him is 24-year Zach Greinke who is 3-0 with 0.75 ERA. Next is Brian Bannister, at 27-years of age, also 3-0 with 0.86 ERA. Nobody expects them to continue to pitch this way; however for the first time is a VERY long long time, the Royals could go into far more series with a chance to win. Now if the bats wake from slumber......
Today played Cardinals at -114, and bullpen failed giving up five runs from the eight inning out in losing to Milwaukee. Liked the White Sox playing well and their bullpen could not hold three run in the eight either, in losing 6-5 to Baltimore. Played Seattle, got my finger crossed.
The Flyers went to 2OT before I could finally find a winner today.
Someday's your the annoying bug, other day's you're the windshield. Losing two MLB games with the lead late in the game in extra innings is just bad luck.
Baseball Betting Being Bery Bery so far
Off to a nice start in baseball, with the Yankees and St. Louis both winning tonight. For the season now at 15-8, + 7.3 units. For all those doubters out there, my picks are monitored at FreeSportsmonitor.com and at Wagerline.com. I like FreeSportsMonitor because those using are realistic. You can tell those using this monitor are serious, likely either playing or selling their picks. Not like some of those other sites where guys put in 20 plays a day and if they get lucky, they can hit a hot streak for extended period of time, playing money lines, pumping up fraudulent records.
You will notice my record varies from that at FreeSportsMonitor, for one reason only. Sometimes the lines they have are rotten. For example, I might find three books that would have lets say the Red Sox at -124 and I'll go to FSM and they'll have it at -145. No self-respecting bettor would actually bet into such a bad line, thus in keeping with integrity, I won't "place Bet" so to speak. That is why I use Wagerline, because they have realistic numbers you would find anywhere.
You've never see 3DW anywhere near the top of their leaderboards, because as I said, refuse to have monitored results with false (good or bad) record. You can easily see my current results and look into archives here to see past accomplishments. I almost forgot, I mess around with USASportsMonitor.net. I've used for quite awhile and don't have good reason why I still place picks there, other than I've done it for a long time. Probably will drop come next football.
Baseball is a hard grind that demands certain disciplines to win. I believe I understand those and the week of April 28, I'll start sharing my methods for betting baseball.
Surprised as hell, Detroit Red Wings lost at Nashville tonight. I played them along with the Rangers (at least that won). Thus far in the NHL Playoffs 5-6 -1.33 units. Lots of time to turn that around.
Will have NBA Previews later this week. Until then, I'm out.
You will notice my record varies from that at FreeSportsMonitor, for one reason only. Sometimes the lines they have are rotten. For example, I might find three books that would have lets say the Red Sox at -124 and I'll go to FSM and they'll have it at -145. No self-respecting bettor would actually bet into such a bad line, thus in keeping with integrity, I won't "place Bet" so to speak. That is why I use Wagerline, because they have realistic numbers you would find anywhere.
You've never see 3DW anywhere near the top of their leaderboards, because as I said, refuse to have monitored results with false (good or bad) record. You can easily see my current results and look into archives here to see past accomplishments. I almost forgot, I mess around with USASportsMonitor.net. I've used for quite awhile and don't have good reason why I still place picks there, other than I've done it for a long time. Probably will drop come next football.
Baseball is a hard grind that demands certain disciplines to win. I believe I understand those and the week of April 28, I'll start sharing my methods for betting baseball.
Surprised as hell, Detroit Red Wings lost at Nashville tonight. I played them along with the Rangers (at least that won). Thus far in the NHL Playoffs 5-6 -1.33 units. Lots of time to turn that around.
Will have NBA Previews later this week. Until then, I'm out.
Baseball’s Bettors Good, Bad and Ugly
A couple of weeks into the baseball season, certain trends are emerging on all major league baseball teams. Some are what we thought, others have been misjudged early, and some just have an odor similar to the town dump. Here is a first look at who have been good, bad and ugly bets in 2008.
GOOD
Oakland 9-6 +5.7 units
Who knew a trip to Japan can cure what looked like an ugly team. Maybe the Athletics rubbed themselves with Far East magic potion, which has them all playing better than what they are. Sweeping Toronto on the road and beating C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona in back to back games in Cleveland, now that’s impressive. Nobody believes it will last, since this type of teams pops up every April, nevertheless betting on the Athletics earns sharp bettors A+.
Who knew a trip to Japan can cure what looked like an ugly team. Maybe the Athletics rubbed themselves with Far East magic potion, which has them all playing better than what they are. Sweeping Toronto on the road and beating C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona in back to back games in Cleveland, now that’s impressive. Nobody believes it will last, since this type of teams pops up every April, nevertheless betting on the Athletics earns sharp bettors A+.
Kansas City 8-6 +4.5 units
Brian Bannister and Zack Greinke are both 3-0 for the Royals with ERA’s under one. Kansas City’s pitching and offense are interesting dichotomy, first in runs allowed and next to last in runs scored at 3.3 per game. What is most likely to get worse? Pick spots this month to keep winning with Royals.
Brian Bannister and Zack Greinke are both 3-0 for the Royals with ERA’s under one. Kansas City’s pitching and offense are interesting dichotomy, first in runs allowed and next to last in runs scored at 3.3 per game. What is most likely to get worse? Pick spots this month to keep winning with Royals.
Arizona 10-4 +6 units
At least this team made the postseason last year. The D-Backs offense has been scoring runs, leading all of baseball and if Randy Johnson can become a mildly reliable starter at number three or four slot behind Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, Arizona will be Play On team for some time. With young hitters, slumps are inevitable, watch for when the Snakes have two or three games with seven or fewer hits and go the other way.
At least this team made the postseason last year. The D-Backs offense has been scoring runs, leading all of baseball and if Randy Johnson can become a mildly reliable starter at number three or four slot behind Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, Arizona will be Play On team for some time. With young hitters, slumps are inevitable, watch for when the Snakes have two or three games with seven or fewer hits and go the other way.
BAD
Colorado 5-8 -3.7 units
The big question coming into the season was Colorado for real, or just a team that looked like a Coors Light desert mirage, that got hot late? The Rockies starting pitchers have gotten off to rocky start and any staff that has Mark Redman is hurting. The vaunted Colorado lineup has shown less than a nun’s habit, averaging less then four runs an outing. When they Rocks hit, they’ll win, when not, 50-50 wagering proposition.
The big question coming into the season was Colorado for real, or just a team that looked like a Coors Light desert mirage, that got hot late? The Rockies starting pitchers have gotten off to rocky start and any staff that has Mark Redman is hurting. The vaunted Colorado lineup has shown less than a nun’s habit, averaging less then four runs an outing. When they Rocks hit, they’ll win, when not, 50-50 wagering proposition.
New York Yankees 8-7 -2.0 units
The Yankees are almost never going to be a good bet, being frontloaded with too many large numbers as favorites. What has made them lousy April wager is 23rd ranked offense. Jason Giambi has a couple of dingers; however has a batting average like a typical summer day in Death Valley, CA, at .107. Joe Girardi already being accused of over-managing.
The Yankees are almost never going to be a good bet, being frontloaded with too many large numbers as favorites. What has made them lousy April wager is 23rd ranked offense. Jason Giambi has a couple of dingers; however has a batting average like a typical summer day in Death Valley, CA, at .107. Joe Girardi already being accused of over-managing.
New York Mets 6-6 -2.5 units
Johan Santana welcome to the Big Apple. In his very first start in Shea Stadium, he was booed for allowing five runs (three homers) in almost seven innings of work in losing to Milwaukee. Johan, this isn’t a cottage on Lake Tranquility in Minnesota, ya der hey. This New York team seems to be built like house of cards, pull one and the whole thing could come down.
Johan Santana welcome to the Big Apple. In his very first start in Shea Stadium, he was booed for allowing five runs (three homers) in almost seven innings of work in losing to Milwaukee. Johan, this isn’t a cottage on Lake Tranquility in Minnesota, ya der hey. This New York team seems to be built like house of cards, pull one and the whole thing could come down.
UGLY
L.A. Dodgers 6-8 -3.6 units
Part of the problem for the Boys in Blue is bad luck. Facing Jake Peavy twice in the first two weeks doesn’t help and catching aspiring Arizona in the middle of hot streak only exasperates early issues. With steady Joe Torre in the dugout, Brad Penny and Chad Billingsley soon to be hitting stride, Dodgers SHOULD be O.K.
Part of the problem for the Boys in Blue is bad luck. Facing Jake Peavy twice in the first two weeks doesn’t help and catching aspiring Arizona in the middle of hot streak only exasperates early issues. With steady Joe Torre in the dugout, Brad Penny and Chad Billingsley soon to be hitting stride, Dodgers SHOULD be O.K.
Cleveland 5-9 -7.4 units
Was this team really THAT close to eliminating Boston last year? No matter what time of year, it is never good when your closer (Joe Borowski in this instance, now on DL) has an ERA of 18.00. C.C. Sabathia has earned all F’s in three starts, allowing nine walks in 14 innings. Shaky starting pitching and unreliable bullpen could call for palinode of the Tribe being one of the best teams in American League.
Was this team really THAT close to eliminating Boston last year? No matter what time of year, it is never good when your closer (Joe Borowski in this instance, now on DL) has an ERA of 18.00. C.C. Sabathia has earned all F’s in three starts, allowing nine walks in 14 innings. Shaky starting pitching and unreliable bullpen could call for palinode of the Tribe being one of the best teams in American League.
Detroit 4-10 -10.4 units
Saying Detroit is off to a slow start, is like promoting “Leatherheads” for Oscar material. With this offense near the bottom in almost every category, they have posted a ZERO on four different occasions already. Maybe manager Jim Leyland stepping on a few throats or unlikely comeback this past Monday against Minnesota will turn like Tigers around, yet until they show any consistency besides losing, a tough bet either way.
Saying Detroit is off to a slow start, is like promoting “Leatherheads” for Oscar material. With this offense near the bottom in almost every category, they have posted a ZERO on four different occasions already. Maybe manager Jim Leyland stepping on a few throats or unlikely comeback this past Monday against Minnesota will turn like Tigers around, yet until they show any consistency besides losing, a tough bet either way.
Wagering Info on NHL Playoffs
Five games are on the NHL playoff docket for Tuesday, each holding a great deal of significance for everyone involved. Some series could become a foregone conclusion, some could be headed that direction, while others could really whet the appetite of those betting hockey. For those daring enough to take the underdog or favorite of any sports most unpredictable first round, good luck tonight. Here is betting outlook of each contest tonight.
Boston had lost 12 of 13 games at Montreal and 22 of 26 to the Canadiens, before breaking thru and knocking off the Canadiens in overtime in Game three. The Bruins have to be encouraged with how they are playing, playing Montreal into extra sessions in the last two contests, splitting them. “I’d like to think we can carry over with the momentum,” Boston goalie Tim Thomas said. “It was a big win but (Tuesday) the work starts all over again. It’s a clean slate every game.”
Montreal is 11-4 ATS after a close loss by one goal in their previous game this season, while the Bruins are just 4-9 ATS after allowing two goals or less in next contest. Boston will once again be the underdog, being presented as +115 with total of Un5 at Bookmaker.com, and they have won four in a row in this role.
Bettors have to wonder, if the Washington surge to make the playoffs has left them winded. The Capitals needed three third period goals to defeat the Flyers in the opener and were shutout at home by Martin Biron in the second game 2-0. Washington coach Bruce Boudreau was succinct about last contest. "I can't put it any plainer," Boudreau said. "Philadelphia outplayed us, outworked us and out-won the battles on us. We now know that we've got to pay a bigger price if we want to succeed."
Maybe the rest will do the Capitals good, being 19-7 ATS with a day off. Rest has benefits for Philadelphia as well, with 10-1 ATS mark in last 11 tries with exactly one day off. Philly is a -130 favorite; however is just 10-21 ATS off a road win by two goals or more. The road team has won five of last six meetings between these combatants, including the Caps taking four straight.
The Versus Network will telecast starting at 7 Eastern.
Talk about your back up against the wall for Anaheim! Memories of last year’s Stanley Cup run are a distant memory for the Ducks who lost both games at home, being outclassed and outscored by seven goals. Anaheim was trying to become the first team in 10 seasons to go back-to-back, now they just need to win a game. Dallas has been known for playoff failures and was believed to be heading for more of the same, closing the regular season 3-10. Instead, future Hall-of-Famer Mike Madano might have had the answer. “I think it was better for us to start on the road to get that mind-set and get really involved in the series,” Modano said.
The Stars come back home 10-1 ATS off a road blowout win by three goals or more over the last two seasons. The Ducks have to quickly regroup and leave the jejune behavior behind. The defending champs are 25-8 after allowing five or more goals in next game. Dallas is -130 favorite with total Un5.
San Jose at Calgary – Flames lead 2-1
To say Calgary was in trouble was like saying the mortgage business is having a few problems, after the Flames trailed 3-0 at home in the first 3:33 of Game three. Off the bench came 40-year backup netminder Curtis Joseph, who went on to stymie the Sharks the rest of the way and Calgary stormed to 4-3 win.
San Jose once again is showing they turn from men to boys come playoff time and have already lost two games they should have won to undermanned Calgary. Possibly the rest will clear the Sharks heads after deflating defeat, as they are 11-2 with one day between games.
Don’t expect the Calgary to flameout as +125 home ice dogs, since they 7-1 ATS in this spot. Hard to imagine 2006 Vezina trophy winner Miikka Kiprusoff will have two bad games in a row.
In the second half of doubleheader on Versus, they will show Game four of the Wild and Avalanche series. Going into the series, Minnesota was a -140 favorite to advance and after three games that all went into overtime, the difference between these two Northwest Division foes is about as thick as a credit card.
Even with the upset win, the Wild are just 2-6 ATS on the road in last eight. Colorado has been one of the best home teams in the NHL for years and is still 9-2 ATS in last 11. Minnesota has long had issues playing with no rest, winning less then 33 percent of the time in over 90 games. The Avs are just 1-5 playing with no days off if last game went into OT. Possibly the playoffs will prove to be different, but the home team has taken 10 of 13, justifying Colorado being -165 favorite.
Phoenix in Hot Super System
The great debate whether the acquisition of Shaquille O’Neal was the right move for the Phoenix Suns was correct or not, probably won’t be answered until the world sees how they perform in the postseason; nevertheless it is as clear as a pristine lake in Utah, it hasn’t worked out for the regular season. Phoenix is only 15-11 (15-10-1 ATS) since O’Neal first donned a Sun uniform, starting with the first game after the All-Star break and they have fallen from second in the West to sixth overall.
Granted, the Western Conference has been an unrelenting beast the entire second half of the season, with all the top teams knocking off one another, yet the fact remains New Orleans had the best record at the break and is still tied for the best record in the loss column with the Lakers. In the proverbial media speak “If the playoffs were to start today”, Phoenix would have to defeat San Antonio, Utah and Kobe and company, without the benefit of home court advantage once, just to make it to NBA finals.
All of this kind of talk can wait until the weekend when the NBA Playoffs commence; instead the attention will be focused on tonight. The Suns finish the regular season at home after winning two of three on the road. The only loss they suffered was at the hands of Houston 101-90. That contest was a perfect example of the public overvaluing a team based on last game played. The Suns had horsewhipped San Antonio two nights before and opened as one point underdogs at Houston. The wagering public jumped on the Phoenix bandwagon and bet them all the way up to 3.5-point road favorites. Steve Nash and his merry mates rocketed to double digit lead, before succumbing to Houston’s defense.
This leads directly into tonight’s meeting with Golden State. The Warriors only chance to make playoffs is to win last two games and have Denver lose at home to miserable Memphis. Most sportsbooks has the Suns favored by five points, all leading a sweet Super System.
Play On home favorites like Phoenix, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, playing with two days rest.
In this case, Coach Mike D’Antoni’s team is a bit peeved about losing and has had two days to prepare. This late in the season, this can be especially valuable for all NBA teams. The club has time to refocus and historically given very solid effort. How good, in the last five years the home team is 43-4 straight up, with 36-9 against the spread record, good for 80 percent winners. This system has been even more helpful to bettors with 24-4, 85.7 percent record the last three seasons.
Since 2004, this has been one of the more gratifying systems to wager on, with winning margin almost 13 points per game.
With the weather heating up in the desert, Phoenix has the appearance of a hot play tonight.
Granted, the Western Conference has been an unrelenting beast the entire second half of the season, with all the top teams knocking off one another, yet the fact remains New Orleans had the best record at the break and is still tied for the best record in the loss column with the Lakers. In the proverbial media speak “If the playoffs were to start today”, Phoenix would have to defeat San Antonio, Utah and Kobe and company, without the benefit of home court advantage once, just to make it to NBA finals.
All of this kind of talk can wait until the weekend when the NBA Playoffs commence; instead the attention will be focused on tonight. The Suns finish the regular season at home after winning two of three on the road. The only loss they suffered was at the hands of Houston 101-90. That contest was a perfect example of the public overvaluing a team based on last game played. The Suns had horsewhipped San Antonio two nights before and opened as one point underdogs at Houston. The wagering public jumped on the Phoenix bandwagon and bet them all the way up to 3.5-point road favorites. Steve Nash and his merry mates rocketed to double digit lead, before succumbing to Houston’s defense.
This leads directly into tonight’s meeting with Golden State. The Warriors only chance to make playoffs is to win last two games and have Denver lose at home to miserable Memphis. Most sportsbooks has the Suns favored by five points, all leading a sweet Super System.
Play On home favorites like Phoenix, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, playing with two days rest.
In this case, Coach Mike D’Antoni’s team is a bit peeved about losing and has had two days to prepare. This late in the season, this can be especially valuable for all NBA teams. The club has time to refocus and historically given very solid effort. How good, in the last five years the home team is 43-4 straight up, with 36-9 against the spread record, good for 80 percent winners. This system has been even more helpful to bettors with 24-4, 85.7 percent record the last three seasons.
Since 2004, this has been one of the more gratifying systems to wager on, with winning margin almost 13 points per game.
With the weather heating up in the desert, Phoenix has the appearance of a hot play tonight.
Saturday Wagering Thoughts
Today really like Sacramento with the +8.5. New Orleans has had a great season, yet off emotional loss to Lakers last night and trying to secure best of the West, too many points. Also like Utah -5.5 against Denver. This has been a big home floor series and though the Nuggets are still to fend off Golden State, they won't here.
In baseball, taking Baltimore at +111 because starter Dan Cabrera is 6-0 when starting against Rays and Jason Hammels is 0-3 with ERA of almost 9 vs. the O's. Might have more baseball later.
Look for Anaheim to bounce back after stupid performance against Dallas in game one of NHL Playoffs.
Not a big Arena Football player, but love San Jose catching 5.5 points at home. The Sabercats are 13-4 ATS in home games after allowing 63 points or more last game. They are defending champs taking on unbeaten team.
Good Luck today.
In baseball, taking Baltimore at +111 because starter Dan Cabrera is 6-0 when starting against Rays and Jason Hammels is 0-3 with ERA of almost 9 vs. the O's. Might have more baseball later.
Look for Anaheim to bounce back after stupid performance against Dallas in game one of NHL Playoffs.
Not a big Arena Football player, but love San Jose catching 5.5 points at home. The Sabercats are 13-4 ATS in home games after allowing 63 points or more last game. They are defending champs taking on unbeaten team.
Good Luck today.
Hump Day Thoughts
What a great game the national championship was! Their is no denying Memphis, well you know, didn't finish. Though I hate to use the "c" word, maybe the best way to describe what happened is, it very difficult to shoot free throws with one hand around your neck.
After shooting free throws so badly all season, it made no sense how they could suddenly start shooting so well in the tournament. The law of average caught up to the Tigers based on previous perfomances. Nevertheless, Kansas had to made all the shots and clutch baskets. I can proudly say I picked the Jayhawks and made a nice sum of money at 5-1 odds.
With the NHL playoffs starting and having the coolest trophy in sports in the Stanley Cup, isn't it awful the NCAA trophy looked like something you order online for $19.99 plus free shipping. Seriously, CBS forked over a billion dollars for the TV and the online rights, the NCAA can't afford a trophy that looks like it has some stature. I'd wager the lacrosse trophy looks better than that cheap thing.
Finished the NCAA Tournament 13-9-1, 54.5 percent, which isn't all that bad after 3-5 start.
Tonight played the following:
NBA - 2* New York
NHL - Calgary +169 (more on why later)
MLB - Baltimore +134, White Sox -128
Strong Opinion
Pittsburgh +124
Good Luck
After shooting free throws so badly all season, it made no sense how they could suddenly start shooting so well in the tournament. The law of average caught up to the Tigers based on previous perfomances. Nevertheless, Kansas had to made all the shots and clutch baskets. I can proudly say I picked the Jayhawks and made a nice sum of money at 5-1 odds.
With the NHL playoffs starting and having the coolest trophy in sports in the Stanley Cup, isn't it awful the NCAA trophy looked like something you order online for $19.99 plus free shipping. Seriously, CBS forked over a billion dollars for the TV and the online rights, the NCAA can't afford a trophy that looks like it has some stature. I'd wager the lacrosse trophy looks better than that cheap thing.
Finished the NCAA Tournament 13-9-1, 54.5 percent, which isn't all that bad after 3-5 start.
Tonight played the following:
NBA - 2* New York
NHL - Calgary +169 (more on why later)
MLB - Baltimore +134, White Sox -128
Strong Opinion
Pittsburgh +124
Good Luck
NCAA Title Game Pick
I picked the Kansas to cut down the nets tonight. What impressed me before the tournament was the intensity seldom seen by Bill Self teams, having the killer instinct. Take away the near choke job against Davidson, the Jayhawks last 10 wins have been by 20.6 points per game.
The numbers I worked up show Memphis by one, thus until the flurry of activity today, probably was a fair number. What has impressed me about Memphis is how this team has grown emotionally. When they were undefeated playing Tennessee at home, they came out shooting three’s and making them like they had something to prove against doubting public. As expected they went cold and showed the lack of maturity in still chucking up the lame ducks that were clanking off the rim. Since then, they have learned to trust the inside players more, leaving greater opportunities for Chris Douglas-Roberts inside and out, along with creating more room for explosive Derrick Rose to penetrate. John Calipari, has turned into Jerry Tarkanian without all the previous baggage.
With the switch in favorites, you still can’t ignore the last 10 times a team has been the betting public’s choice by five or fewer points they are 10-0 SU and ATS. At the same time, Bill Self would know his team beat the number one team in the country, was favored to win and is now an underdog. Besides the obvious significance of the game, this is a coach’s dream for motivational speech. Self, dating back to his days at Illinois and Tulsa, is 16-4 against the spread off a win as underdog. Kansas is also 7-1 ATS as underdogs.
Why I like Kansas is because I think the bench is a bit more productive. Sasha Kaun has scored points in big situations and Sherrod Collins is instant excitement. That’s not to say Memphis bench is bad, just not as good as the Jayhawks.
I see the first team to 75 points wins the game and I believe that will be Kansas.
The numbers I worked up show Memphis by one, thus until the flurry of activity today, probably was a fair number. What has impressed me about Memphis is how this team has grown emotionally. When they were undefeated playing Tennessee at home, they came out shooting three’s and making them like they had something to prove against doubting public. As expected they went cold and showed the lack of maturity in still chucking up the lame ducks that were clanking off the rim. Since then, they have learned to trust the inside players more, leaving greater opportunities for Chris Douglas-Roberts inside and out, along with creating more room for explosive Derrick Rose to penetrate. John Calipari, has turned into Jerry Tarkanian without all the previous baggage.
With the switch in favorites, you still can’t ignore the last 10 times a team has been the betting public’s choice by five or fewer points they are 10-0 SU and ATS. At the same time, Bill Self would know his team beat the number one team in the country, was favored to win and is now an underdog. Besides the obvious significance of the game, this is a coach’s dream for motivational speech. Self, dating back to his days at Illinois and Tulsa, is 16-4 against the spread off a win as underdog. Kansas is also 7-1 ATS as underdogs.
Why I like Kansas is because I think the bench is a bit more productive. Sasha Kaun has scored points in big situations and Sherrod Collins is instant excitement. That’s not to say Memphis bench is bad, just not as good as the Jayhawks.
I see the first team to 75 points wins the game and I believe that will be Kansas.
Final Four Picks
UCLA will undoubtedly try to slow the game down against Memphis and control the tempo, making it more to their liking. The Bruins will walk the ball up and try to force Memphis to play defense for longer stretches. It won’t work, coach John Calipari will breakdown Western Kentucky win and see what problems the Bruins had with Hilltoppers. Memphis’ better and longer athletes can be extremely effective in zone traps and he has them 100 percent committed on defensive end. Kevin Love can present problems from matchup standpoint, especially if he hits a few long shots. By the same token, he is not a quick leaper and Memphis frontcourt players can use athletic ability to tap balls or just go over the top. Coach Ben Howland has dilemma how to play Tigers guards. As Memphis proved against Texas, smaller guards can be extinguished. In the Final Four, underdogs like the Bruins off a pair of wins by 10 or more points are just 1-4 ATS in recent efforts. Tigers by 8.
Announcer Gus Johnson’s comment about 800-pound gorilla removed from Bill Self and Kansas back was poignant. The Jayhawks are unburdened with expectations now and will face teams will equal ability, making them underdog, were they could flourish. In the Jayhawks last seven underdog roles, they have cashed in six of them. The game with North Carolina has the making a classic; both teams shoot the ball extremely well, make three-point shots with great regularity and attack the rim off the bounce. Where Kansas has the edge is overall defense. Do they have a player like Taylor Hansbrough, no; however have the same or bettor at all other positions, with greater depth. Teams like the Tar Heels that have covered three consecutive games leading up to Final Four matchup are 6-20 ATS in this round. Kansas in a tight one by 2.
Announcer Gus Johnson’s comment about 800-pound gorilla removed from Bill Self and Kansas back was poignant. The Jayhawks are unburdened with expectations now and will face teams will equal ability, making them underdog, were they could flourish. In the Jayhawks last seven underdog roles, they have cashed in six of them. The game with North Carolina has the making a classic; both teams shoot the ball extremely well, make three-point shots with great regularity and attack the rim off the bounce. Where Kansas has the edge is overall defense. Do they have a player like Taylor Hansbrough, no; however have the same or bettor at all other positions, with greater depth. Teams like the Tar Heels that have covered three consecutive games leading up to Final Four matchup are 6-20 ATS in this round. Kansas in a tight one by 2.
The Final Four – What if?
For the first time in the history of the NCAA Tournament, all four number one seeds have advanced to the Final Four. While it makes for great story telling when a Cinderella is fit for glass slipper to make the last group, they often flop in this situation like George Mason did in 2006. Instead, this year, we have the top four teams that finished one, two, three and four in the final Coaches’ poll of the regular season.
With the games presumed to be tightly contested or potentially blowouts because of just a few factors, here is a betting outlook at “what if” any of our four finalist play there best or worst.
What if North Carolina plays their best?
When North Carolina bends down, pulls up the shorts and defends, they are the best team in the country. Offensively, they are without peer, even among this contingent, scoring 89 points per game. Being at or near the top of the polls, they have made life easy for “square” bettors, being 23-10-2 against the spread. Tyler Hansbrough is the single hardest working player in the country and always gives the Tar Heels a shot to win. Having Ty Lawson back at point makes the North Carolina players better, allowing them to play to strengths instead of compensating in other areas they are not as skilled at. Their supremacy is shown by 13-1 ATS record versus excellent teams shooting 45 percent or higher with a defense holding opponents to 42 percent or lower this season.
What if Tar Heels are at their worst?
North Carolina is a better than 8-5 choice to cut down the nets Monday night, but that won’t happen if two of these three things happen. Hansbrough can be limited, have him catch the ball 2-3 feet outside comfort level and flash ball-side defender at him, forcing him to make quick decisions. If he looks to pass weak side, off ball defender has to be aware of passes that can be stolen. Hope Danny Green in particular and other shooters are off on three-pointers, never giving easy looks. When and if opposing team has lead, move the ball on offense and make Heels play defense for 25 or more seconds on multiple possessions, they will become impatient.
What if Kansas plays their best?
When Kansas is at there best, no team in this field is capable of beating them. They have the size to swallow up the lane and speed at all five positions to run and defend with anyone. The Jayhawks are one team that will be comfortable playing at a faster speed, like UNC or Memphis plays and is truly exceptional in creating dribble penetration to the rim. They make over 50 percent from the field and 40 percent from beyond the arc, plus hold opponents to 38.5 percent shooting on the road. The Jayhawks could be underdog twice in San Antonio and come away national champs. They are 6-1 ATS in this role and 5-0 ATS off win by less than six points.
What if Jayhawks are at their worst?
In the Bill Self era and even when Roy Williams was the coach in Lawrence, Kansas showed the capacity to tighten up in critical games and situations. The signs are more obvious than a Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays season outcome. The Jayhawks start jacking up jump shots, stand on offensive sets and two players hang their heads after opponents made baskets. If opposing team is dictating tempo, they become stagnant and are 1-7 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 77 or points a game this season. For all their balance, they don’t have reliable go-to player who wants to take big shot in close games. If Brandon Rush is so-so, Kansas is VERY ordinary in big games.
What if Memphis plays their best?
Combine aggressive defense, crashing the boards with authority, dribble penetration offensive AND the ability to make free throws, and Memphis at just under 3-1 odds is a load. Of any team in the Final Four, if this was round-robin, they would be most likely to win all three games when they are playing like they are right now. Derrick Rose has been the cherry on the top of the desert, which has made this Tigers team virtually unstoppable. Chris Douglas-Roberts is a complete player and the frontline is domineering over opponents in the paint. Coach Calipari teams are 57-33 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a game, after 15 or more contests in a season.
What if Tigers are at their worst?
Playing top level competition in December is not the same as being in a big moment like the Final Four. In only loss to Tennessee, Memphis players seemed more intent on showing they could make outside shots, than playing their game. In spite of exceptional talent coming off the bench, this is a team that is better with the sum of its parts. When Scott Wieland was booted from Stone Temple Pilots, the rest of the members thought they could go on. If Joey Dorsey gets into foul trouble, or Rose as freshman, becomes overwhelmed by the moment, the Tigers could fall to 1-7 ATS off a cover again. One last point, the free throw shooting is just a couple of clanks away from rearing ugly head.
What if UCLA plays their best?
UCLA is making third straight trip to Final Four and just over 3-1 odds to win it all. The Bruins have players’ familiar with the pressures of the media, scrutiny by the masses and the team with the most to prove, based on the last two seasons coming up short. UCLA is 8-2 ATS after scoring 75 points or more two straight games this season, proving they can play with the high octane teams in this field, yet can play lock down defense on the perimeter like they did against Xavier. Desire is one aspect that is impossible to measure in situations like this, nonetheless, juniors Darren Collison, Josh Shipp, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute have played prominent roles on this stage and have the big game experience that should allow them to shine. Like Memphis, coach Ben Howland believes Kevin Love was the one missing piece to complete circle of success.
What if Bruins are at their worst?
Go ahead, name productive backcourt player coming off the UCLA bench? If Collison has problems with scoring or turnovers, Bruins have immediate issues. Josh Shipp has been unhealthy in the tournament and his jump shot has shown it, hitting 33 percent in tourney’s first four games. Kevin Love has created matchup issues for opposing clubs with well-rounded skills, however the prowess of the frontcourts he will see will test his defensive skills as well, particularly his lack of cutting off drives on the baseline that could lead to baskets and him picking up cheap fouls. UCLA has to score 70 points; otherwise they are likely out with 2-10 ATS mark this 2007-08 campaign.
With the games presumed to be tightly contested or potentially blowouts because of just a few factors, here is a betting outlook at “what if” any of our four finalist play there best or worst.
What if North Carolina plays their best?
When North Carolina bends down, pulls up the shorts and defends, they are the best team in the country. Offensively, they are without peer, even among this contingent, scoring 89 points per game. Being at or near the top of the polls, they have made life easy for “square” bettors, being 23-10-2 against the spread. Tyler Hansbrough is the single hardest working player in the country and always gives the Tar Heels a shot to win. Having Ty Lawson back at point makes the North Carolina players better, allowing them to play to strengths instead of compensating in other areas they are not as skilled at. Their supremacy is shown by 13-1 ATS record versus excellent teams shooting 45 percent or higher with a defense holding opponents to 42 percent or lower this season.
What if Tar Heels are at their worst?
North Carolina is a better than 8-5 choice to cut down the nets Monday night, but that won’t happen if two of these three things happen. Hansbrough can be limited, have him catch the ball 2-3 feet outside comfort level and flash ball-side defender at him, forcing him to make quick decisions. If he looks to pass weak side, off ball defender has to be aware of passes that can be stolen. Hope Danny Green in particular and other shooters are off on three-pointers, never giving easy looks. When and if opposing team has lead, move the ball on offense and make Heels play defense for 25 or more seconds on multiple possessions, they will become impatient.
What if Kansas plays their best?
When Kansas is at there best, no team in this field is capable of beating them. They have the size to swallow up the lane and speed at all five positions to run and defend with anyone. The Jayhawks are one team that will be comfortable playing at a faster speed, like UNC or Memphis plays and is truly exceptional in creating dribble penetration to the rim. They make over 50 percent from the field and 40 percent from beyond the arc, plus hold opponents to 38.5 percent shooting on the road. The Jayhawks could be underdog twice in San Antonio and come away national champs. They are 6-1 ATS in this role and 5-0 ATS off win by less than six points.
What if Jayhawks are at their worst?
In the Bill Self era and even when Roy Williams was the coach in Lawrence, Kansas showed the capacity to tighten up in critical games and situations. The signs are more obvious than a Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays season outcome. The Jayhawks start jacking up jump shots, stand on offensive sets and two players hang their heads after opponents made baskets. If opposing team is dictating tempo, they become stagnant and are 1-7 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 77 or points a game this season. For all their balance, they don’t have reliable go-to player who wants to take big shot in close games. If Brandon Rush is so-so, Kansas is VERY ordinary in big games.
What if Memphis plays their best?
Combine aggressive defense, crashing the boards with authority, dribble penetration offensive AND the ability to make free throws, and Memphis at just under 3-1 odds is a load. Of any team in the Final Four, if this was round-robin, they would be most likely to win all three games when they are playing like they are right now. Derrick Rose has been the cherry on the top of the desert, which has made this Tigers team virtually unstoppable. Chris Douglas-Roberts is a complete player and the frontline is domineering over opponents in the paint. Coach Calipari teams are 57-33 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a game, after 15 or more contests in a season.
What if Tigers are at their worst?
Playing top level competition in December is not the same as being in a big moment like the Final Four. In only loss to Tennessee, Memphis players seemed more intent on showing they could make outside shots, than playing their game. In spite of exceptional talent coming off the bench, this is a team that is better with the sum of its parts. When Scott Wieland was booted from Stone Temple Pilots, the rest of the members thought they could go on. If Joey Dorsey gets into foul trouble, or Rose as freshman, becomes overwhelmed by the moment, the Tigers could fall to 1-7 ATS off a cover again. One last point, the free throw shooting is just a couple of clanks away from rearing ugly head.
What if UCLA plays their best?
UCLA is making third straight trip to Final Four and just over 3-1 odds to win it all. The Bruins have players’ familiar with the pressures of the media, scrutiny by the masses and the team with the most to prove, based on the last two seasons coming up short. UCLA is 8-2 ATS after scoring 75 points or more two straight games this season, proving they can play with the high octane teams in this field, yet can play lock down defense on the perimeter like they did against Xavier. Desire is one aspect that is impossible to measure in situations like this, nonetheless, juniors Darren Collison, Josh Shipp, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute have played prominent roles on this stage and have the big game experience that should allow them to shine. Like Memphis, coach Ben Howland believes Kevin Love was the one missing piece to complete circle of success.
What if Bruins are at their worst?
Go ahead, name productive backcourt player coming off the UCLA bench? If Collison has problems with scoring or turnovers, Bruins have immediate issues. Josh Shipp has been unhealthy in the tournament and his jump shot has shown it, hitting 33 percent in tourney’s first four games. Kevin Love has created matchup issues for opposing clubs with well-rounded skills, however the prowess of the frontcourts he will see will test his defensive skills as well, particularly his lack of cutting off drives on the baseline that could lead to baskets and him picking up cheap fouls. UCLA has to score 70 points; otherwise they are likely out with 2-10 ATS mark this 2007-08 campaign.
Betting Notes at 3DW
Stepped out today playing three NBA games, but truthfully confident each should come in.
NBA Plays
2* Washington - New York - Portland
The Wizards play is more about Milwaukee than Washington, as this article points out. New York is horrible, but Memphis an eight point favorite? The Lakers are struggling to cover spreads and each team is .500 in road/home situation, why not take the points.
Passing on baseball, as I'm very selective the first two weeks.
The Left Coast Connection just has a play on the Wizards tonight.
I've received very interesting information on a baseball bettor. He plays underdogs almost exclusively and has a track record I'm told is among the best in terms of units won. Unlike myself, he plays from day one. Tonight he has San Francisco, Houston and the White Sox, stay tuned.
NBA Plays
2* Washington - New York - Portland
The Wizards play is more about Milwaukee than Washington, as this article points out. New York is horrible, but Memphis an eight point favorite? The Lakers are struggling to cover spreads and each team is .500 in road/home situation, why not take the points.
Passing on baseball, as I'm very selective the first two weeks.
The Left Coast Connection just has a play on the Wizards tonight.
I've received very interesting information on a baseball bettor. He plays underdogs almost exclusively and has a track record I'm told is among the best in terms of units won. Unlike myself, he plays from day one. Tonight he has San Francisco, Houston and the White Sox, stay tuned.
Tuesday Sports Betting Info
Based on past post about playing against Boston, time to get started right now. The Red Sox are -132 road favorites and starter Dice-K Matsuzaka minimized the damage he could have incurred and escaped with two runs against the A's. Don't believe that will happen again and like the fact Oakland has won 7 of 12 against BoSox at home the last two years. Playing A's on the money line.
In the NBA, have three plays. Like Orlando, they well-rested and motivation shouldn't be a problem, facing the best team in the West in New Orleans. Also playing Houston, but no more than -2 points. Rockets are 13-4 ATS on the road off a road loss over the last two seasons.
Recap: 2* Houston - Orlando
In the NHL, playing the UNDER with Calgary/Edmonton, seeing they have done so 21 of last 29 times they met. Also in the hockey, red-hot Washington can catch Carolina in the Southeast Division, I think they do on home ice.
The Left Coast Connection has the following tonight:
MLB- Toronto
NBA - San Antonio
CBB- Ole Miss
I actually like the Blue Jays also, just wished they would have played yesterday. It seems like when you wait, the dynamics change. If the Rebels played better on the road, I'd been on them also.
In the NBA, have three plays. Like Orlando, they well-rested and motivation shouldn't be a problem, facing the best team in the West in New Orleans. Also playing Houston, but no more than -2 points. Rockets are 13-4 ATS on the road off a road loss over the last two seasons.
Recap: 2* Houston - Orlando
In the NHL, playing the UNDER with Calgary/Edmonton, seeing they have done so 21 of last 29 times they met. Also in the hockey, red-hot Washington can catch Carolina in the Southeast Division, I think they do on home ice.
The Left Coast Connection has the following tonight:
MLB- Toronto
NBA - San Antonio
CBB- Ole Miss
I actually like the Blue Jays also, just wished they would have played yesterday. It seems like when you wait, the dynamics change. If the Rebels played better on the road, I'd been on them also.
Early Baseball Betting Angle
Mentioned yesterday about a baseball wagering opportunity to consider. The Boston Red Sox are of course the defending World Series champions and have been dealt about as cruel a hand to start the season as any baseball team could. (Phil Hellmuth would be whining like crazy) By now you know they had to fly to Japan to play two regular season games against Oakland, along with putting on clinics and other things when they visited.
They flew back to Los Angeles to play exhibition games (that makes sense) against the Dodgers, before flying up the coast to finish A's "home" series on April 1st and 2nd. (This is no joke and it gets better) Granted, in order to get home they have to fly East, but to Toronto for weekend series? For those keeping score, that's three countries in 10 days.
After off day on April 7, it is three games with Detroit, who figures to compete with BoSox for top honors in the AL, followed by three with the hated Yankees. If that weren't enough, a brief four game trip to two cities ...................just two of the teams that were in the American League postseason, Cleveland and those fun-loving Yankees.
That is three countries and seven cities (including L.A.) in 24 days. Even Tampa Bay would have reason to complain, let alone the defending champions of the baseball.
This all leads to betting against the Red Sox, through no fault of their own, especially when they are favored in this time period. It would make sense they would be overvalued as champs, and having to play this tough of schedule would be challenging enough. Throw in all the travel, thanks to Bud the Commish and this appears to be money-making proposition playing against the Red Sox.
They flew back to Los Angeles to play exhibition games (that makes sense) against the Dodgers, before flying up the coast to finish A's "home" series on April 1st and 2nd. (This is no joke and it gets better) Granted, in order to get home they have to fly East, but to Toronto for weekend series? For those keeping score, that's three countries in 10 days.
After off day on April 7, it is three games with Detroit, who figures to compete with BoSox for top honors in the AL, followed by three with the hated Yankees. If that weren't enough, a brief four game trip to two cities ...................just two of the teams that were in the American League postseason, Cleveland and those fun-loving Yankees.
That is three countries and seven cities (including L.A.) in 24 days. Even Tampa Bay would have reason to complain, let alone the defending champions of the baseball.
This all leads to betting against the Red Sox, through no fault of their own, especially when they are favored in this time period. It would make sense they would be overvalued as champs, and having to play this tough of schedule would be challenging enough. Throw in all the travel, thanks to Bud the Commish and this appears to be money-making proposition playing against the Red Sox.
Final Four Dance Card is Filled Today
In the end, Louisville made three critical turnovers after tying the game at 59 and North Carolina lathered in the embrace of a pro-Tar Heels crowd to beat Louisville by 10. If I made a mistake in taking the Cardinals, it was underestimating the impact of the crowd. I was well aware UNC was 24-1 in NCAA tournament games played in the state of North Carolina and 8-0 in NCAA tournament games played in Charlotte. My numbers had a close game and in truth, even though I lost, it was not a crushing defeat, I just lost believing I had the correct side.
I'm playing Texas as a 2* today against Memphis. I don't believe the Tigers will make 74 percent again from the free throw line and like the fact the Longhorns are 9-2 ATS after leading their last three games by five or more points at the half. Throw in the fact, #2 seeds are 6-2 ATS over #1 seeds in Elite 8 games since 1998.
The Left Coast Connection has 81 percent of members picking Texas also. Davidson is not official play; however is picked by 66 percent of this group.
Baseball starts here in the States (doesn't that seem stupid) tonight, will be good to have my favorite sport get going. Check in tomorrow, I'll have something to look for in early MLB action.
I'm playing Texas as a 2* today against Memphis. I don't believe the Tigers will make 74 percent again from the free throw line and like the fact the Longhorns are 9-2 ATS after leading their last three games by five or more points at the half. Throw in the fact, #2 seeds are 6-2 ATS over #1 seeds in Elite 8 games since 1998.
The Left Coast Connection has 81 percent of members picking Texas also. Davidson is not official play; however is picked by 66 percent of this group.
Baseball starts here in the States (doesn't that seem stupid) tonight, will be good to have my favorite sport get going. Check in tomorrow, I'll have something to look for in early MLB action.
Elite 8 Saturday
Four blowouts last night, all equally impressive. Stephen Curry is such a good shooter and scorer for Davidson, yet the defense was the got my attention. For anyone that is a Wisconsin fan, you have to wonder why Bo Ryan was letting Brian Butch at 7'0, chuck up bricks from the top of the three point line. Sure he can make them from time to time, but his with size and strength advantage, do you really want him out there?
Today, really like Louisville with the points, thus I'll make them 3* with a chance to win outright. In the other game, would like to take Xavier; however off overtime game and against UCLA experience, will pass on star rated play and just suggest play on Musketeers.
For the tournament now 11-8-1.
The Left Coast Connection is 12-9-1 for the tourney and has the Cardinals today and split evenly on UCLA and Xavier.
In the NBA they are all over Denver.
Good Luck today.
Today, really like Louisville with the points, thus I'll make them 3* with a chance to win outright. In the other game, would like to take Xavier; however off overtime game and against UCLA experience, will pass on star rated play and just suggest play on Musketeers.
For the tournament now 11-8-1.
The Left Coast Connection is 12-9-1 for the tourney and has the Cardinals today and split evenly on UCLA and Xavier.
In the NBA they are all over Denver.
Good Luck today.
Outsourcing Baseball
Neglected to mention I thought it was a sad commentary on major league baseball to play opening games of the season in Japan. It's no secret the reason why, purely profit and getting product into more places, at whatever the cost. It was even more ridiculous the current World Series champion Boston Red Sox had to go. If you are a fan of the Red Sox, the game started at just after 6:00 AM, meaning for most, they had to choose between work or watching their beloved team. Stupid is the only word that works.
Can you imagine the opening of the NFL season being in some foreign land with an weekday AM start time for the Giants this upcoming fall.
Can you imagine the opening of the NFL season being in some foreign land with an weekday AM start time for the Giants this upcoming fall.
NCAA Basketball Plays
Finally a solid winning day from yours truly with Louisville, Xavier and North Carolina- UNDER all coming thru Thursday. That raises NCAA record to 10-8-1 against the spread. Not great, however beats the alternative. Today just one play stands out, with Texas a 3* selection. The quickness matchup really favors the Longhorns and their defense has been impressive for a large number of games.
For many people, this might not be a big deal, yet I thought it was important. In common opponents, Texas is 3-1 outscoring foes by 6.8 PPG. Stanford on the other hand was 2-3, outscoring same opponents by less then a point per game.
The Left Coast Connection also rebounded and is 11-8-1 in the tournament. Tonight they have Memphis and Wisconsin as there plays.
Good Luck tonight!
For many people, this might not be a big deal, yet I thought it was important. In common opponents, Texas is 3-1 outscoring foes by 6.8 PPG. Stanford on the other hand was 2-3, outscoring same opponents by less then a point per game.
The Left Coast Connection also rebounded and is 11-8-1 in the tournament. Tonight they have Memphis and Wisconsin as there plays.
Good Luck tonight!
With two rounds in the books for the NCAA Tournament, it is time to understand what we have witnessed thus far as bettors. While the excitement of close games and underdogs has grabbed our attention, favorites have ruled this tournament with 32-17, 65.3 percent record. The Under on the totals side has been the play in this event for a number of years, not this time, as oddsmakers adjustments and coaches taking more aggressive approaches has the Over 28-19-2.
College basketball this season had two conferences that stood out, the Pac-10 and the Big East. These two leagues have the most representatives in the Sweet 16, providing credence to how they performed all year. At the same time, the rest of the college basketball landscape had a great deal of balance, which was also shown in the fact that eight other conferences have at least one entry still alive. In what was widely regarded as the year of the freshman, only two that gained tremendous notoriety are still playing, Memphis’ Derrick Rose and UCLA’s Kevin Love.
The four top seeds all advanced, with Kansas and North Carolina both covering their two contests, UCLA splitting at 1-1 and Memphis looking shaky, not unexpectedly at the free throw line with 0-2 ATS mark. Kansas beat handled what many believed was an underrated UNLV team. The Tar Heels looked Final Four ready in two appearances, destroying two unworthy opponents. UCLA was fortunate to beat a game Texas A&M squad and if anyone wonders if Aggies Donald Sloan’s shot attempt was altered, note picture of Slaon's shooting hand. While on the Bruins, has Josh Shipp’s ship sailed? If John Calipari’s club were to win the national championship, they might have to go down as one of the all-time great teams, having only one defeat and shooting free throws like they had to do so while balancing Nike ball on there heads while attempting shots.
West Virginia and Davidson were thoroughly impressive in knocking out #2’s Duke and Georgetown respectively. The Coach K’s losing was just a matter of time. It is official; the Blue Devils no longer have the elite players to be a Final Four contender every year. Oh sure, they play hard, give it there all, they just aren’t next level players. Maybe a Stephen Curry would have helped Duke, because he was the singular player of the weekend. Offensively, he was unstoppable and unflappable in the second half of both games. What was a treat was to see how diverse his offensive skill set actually is, with cross-over drives to the basket that were ankle breakers, which could have left laundry behind.
Pittsburgh and San Diego finally wore out, while Michigan State has gotten a new lease on life and Western Kentucky’s three guard trio of seniors rival any team still playing. What tenacity the Hilltoppers also play with.
Defensive demons Wisconsin and Washington State sent offensive-minded teams Kansas State and Notre Dame packing. In watching those games, if those teams had played each other 50 times, the Wildcats and Irish MIGHT have won on 50th attempt.
Stanford and Tennessee persevered, for the most part making one more shot than their opponents, each looking vulnerable moving ahead. A dunce cap and a pat on the back for Stanford’s coach Trent Johnson. You have to be a complete idiot to get tossed out of a NCAA Tournament game, as the officials give coaches plenty of leeway. However, in post-game interview with Jay Bilas, he was humble and contrite in understanding what he had done, fully understanding if Brook Lopez doesn’t make spectacular hook shot, he will be buried in blogs and articles everywhere.
On to Thursday, for more wagering opportunities, as linemakers have shaded underdogs in opening lines based on history.
Sunday Tournament Action
Just can't get started in this year's tournament, still looking to close strong. Really could kick myself for taking Duke yesterday, since when I was watching the Blue Devils struggle to beat Belmont, I turned to the guy I was with and said this team is finished. Unfortunately, it was one of those instances of outsmarting myself, thinking this was a Duke team of old, it certainly was not.
Anyway, here are today's winning plays.
2* San Diego - Mississippi State- Butler - Okla/Louisv. UNDER
The Left Coast Connection is still showing a profit at 7-5 and has these plays today.
Top - (tie) Georgetown - Texas
The Rest - North Carolina - Memphis - Okla/Louisv. UNDER
Happy Easter and Good Luck
Anyway, here are today's winning plays.
2* San Diego - Mississippi State- Butler - Okla/Louisv. UNDER
The Left Coast Connection is still showing a profit at 7-5 and has these plays today.
Top - (tie) Georgetown - Texas
The Rest - North Carolina - Memphis - Okla/Louisv. UNDER
Happy Easter and Good Luck
NCAA Selections
All right, came back with 2-0 day and 5-5 in the tournament, looking for bigger and better things. Today I have 4* on Wisconsin and 3* on Duke.
The Left Coast Connection had another winning day and is 6-4 to date after the first two days.
Today they have:
Top Play: Duke
The Rest - Wisconsin
Marquette just missed making the 75 percent grade.
Good Luck Today.
The Left Coast Connection had another winning day and is 6-4 to date after the first two days.
Today they have:
Top Play: Duke
The Rest - Wisconsin
Marquette just missed making the 75 percent grade.
Good Luck Today.
Day Two NCAA Thoughts
If you had spent all day and all night in Ybor City among the local bars and restaurants and came home to turn on SportsCenter, you couldn’t have imagined that FOUR double digit seeds would have pulled four outright upsets in nearby St. Pete’s. Western Kentucky couldn’t miss and Drake didn’t get back on defense for the first 27 minutes. Drake’s furious rally spoke to there courage, however Lady Luck was fickle to the Bulldogs when Ty Rogers drained about a 30-footer in rhythm for the win. Next was Connecticut as 12-point favorite, who played genuinely uninspired basketball against San Diego, who just wanted it more and got. That was coach Jim Calhoun’s first, first round exit as a Huskies coach.
Vanderbilt played just like UConn, deciding defense was something for others to do. The Commodores reputation as strictly a home court team is richly deserved. Still haven’t figured out what happened to Clemson in loss to Villanova. They played the last 20 minutes like they were having panic attacks. For those that believe Memphis can overcome its free throwing shooting to win six games in the tournament, the Tigers of Clemson proved how difficult that can be.
During the tournament, the best officials are supposed to be used. What is disturbing is they like to be noticed on TV. The rash of charging calls over the first two days was mind-boggling. Maybe it is no different than any other game or possibly with so many games to watch and choose from, it just seems this way. But tighter officiating does not mean its better. College basketball has to go to NBA half circle in the lane. WAY too many players in the college game run up under players, under the basket and collapse on contact. A player can’t get a running start towards the hoop without somebody running underneath, forcing officials to make calls. Another solution is old-school basketball, if a player undercuts the player taking it to the rim, fall right on top of him with full body weight. Then see if he tries it again.
Do you think every ACC coach and recruiter is kicking themselves again after seeing Stephen Curry torch Gonzaga for 40? Indiana went away like dropped call after Sampson phone-gate. The university, as reported by Jim Nantz and Billy Packer, had announced they were starting a search committee to find a new coach. That is shear brilliance as your team starts playing in the NCAA Tournament. The school literally was saying they are writing off interim (very interim) head coach Dan Dakich and looking to put this year’s team behind them. The Hoosiers played just like what the school thought of them.
Betting numbers update:
On Friday, favorites were 10-6 and 8-8 ATS. Higher seeds were also 8-8 against the spread, with the Over 10-6. This brings the tournament total to favorites 22-11 ATS, higher seeds 20-12 ATS and the OVER 20-13.
Vanderbilt played just like UConn, deciding defense was something for others to do. The Commodores reputation as strictly a home court team is richly deserved. Still haven’t figured out what happened to Clemson in loss to Villanova. They played the last 20 minutes like they were having panic attacks. For those that believe Memphis can overcome its free throwing shooting to win six games in the tournament, the Tigers of Clemson proved how difficult that can be.
During the tournament, the best officials are supposed to be used. What is disturbing is they like to be noticed on TV. The rash of charging calls over the first two days was mind-boggling. Maybe it is no different than any other game or possibly with so many games to watch and choose from, it just seems this way. But tighter officiating does not mean its better. College basketball has to go to NBA half circle in the lane. WAY too many players in the college game run up under players, under the basket and collapse on contact. A player can’t get a running start towards the hoop without somebody running underneath, forcing officials to make calls. Another solution is old-school basketball, if a player undercuts the player taking it to the rim, fall right on top of him with full body weight. Then see if he tries it again.
Do you think every ACC coach and recruiter is kicking themselves again after seeing Stephen Curry torch Gonzaga for 40? Indiana went away like dropped call after Sampson phone-gate. The university, as reported by Jim Nantz and Billy Packer, had announced they were starting a search committee to find a new coach. That is shear brilliance as your team starts playing in the NCAA Tournament. The school literally was saying they are writing off interim (very interim) head coach Dan Dakich and looking to put this year’s team behind them. The Hoosiers played just like what the school thought of them.
Betting numbers update:
On Friday, favorites were 10-6 and 8-8 ATS. Higher seeds were also 8-8 against the spread, with the Over 10-6. This brings the tournament total to favorites 22-11 ATS, higher seeds 20-12 ATS and the OVER 20-13.
NCAA Tournament Evening thoughts
In the evening session, hats off to Belmont, it would have been great to see Duke go down. This is a team that appears to be exhausted, playing on fumes. They gutted out win; however can they possibly come back on short notice against West Virginia on less than 48 hours notice? The Mountaineers played a very good game in committing only eight turnovers versus over-rated Arizona. The nodding heads from Tempe, AR were saying we would have played better than the there neighbors to the south.
Have to say was surprised USC didn’t play with more determination in loss to Kansas State. Coach Frank Martin did a masterful job in having his Wildcat team prepared, changing defenses and running baseline cuts for easy baskets. His intelligence in protecting Michael Beasley was notable, as was the 6’10 freshman’s play in staying out of further foul trouble.
Bobby Knight had suggested raising the field to 128 teams, which in theory at least makes sense to eliminate minor squabbling about who belongs in tournament. After seeing the efforts of Mississippi Valley State, Winthrop, George Mason and for the most part Cal-State Fullerton, the idea seems pointless.
Numbers to chew on:
*Favorites were 14-2 and 13-3 ATS
*The higher seeds were 13-3 and 12-4 ATS.
*The numbers vary from place to place; however here I have the OVER 9-7 and have seen it listed as 10-6 in other locales. Hats off to the oddmakers, who were within two points on seven of the games played.
Have to say was surprised USC didn’t play with more determination in loss to Kansas State. Coach Frank Martin did a masterful job in having his Wildcat team prepared, changing defenses and running baseline cuts for easy baskets. His intelligence in protecting Michael Beasley was notable, as was the 6’10 freshman’s play in staying out of further foul trouble.
Bobby Knight had suggested raising the field to 128 teams, which in theory at least makes sense to eliminate minor squabbling about who belongs in tournament. After seeing the efforts of Mississippi Valley State, Winthrop, George Mason and for the most part Cal-State Fullerton, the idea seems pointless.
Numbers to chew on:
*Favorites were 14-2 and 13-3 ATS
*The higher seeds were 13-3 and 12-4 ATS.
*The numbers vary from place to place; however here I have the OVER 9-7 and have seen it listed as 10-6 in other locales. Hats off to the oddmakers, who were within two points on seven of the games played.
Round One Afternoon Thoughts
Xavier decided to play with 15 minutes to go in the game and overwhelmed an obviously less talented Georgia team. Once the passion button was pushed, the Musketeers rolled. One note on this game, with Bulldogs up nine at the half, Clark Kellogg and Seth Davis were saying Georgia attacks the basket and plays good defense. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Georgia win FOUR SEC games all season! Now they are talking about them, like they are a good team, Please!
Hate to say this, but Kent State choked under the pressure of the tournament. Shooting 20 percent with 15 turnovers in the first half, WOW! UNLV did nothing unique or play stupendously, they just took what the Golden Flashes literally gave them.
Temple showed little emotion and never got back on defense. Oral Roberts, Cornell, Portland State and Baylor were simply outclassed.
The favorites and higher seeds won all eight games and were 7-1 ATS. Honestly rather boring, but good for chalk players.
Hate to say this, but Kent State choked under the pressure of the tournament. Shooting 20 percent with 15 turnovers in the first half, WOW! UNLV did nothing unique or play stupendously, they just took what the Golden Flashes literally gave them.
Temple showed little emotion and never got back on defense. Oral Roberts, Cornell, Portland State and Baylor were simply outclassed.
The favorites and higher seeds won all eight games and were 7-1 ATS. Honestly rather boring, but good for chalk players.
Consensus Plays from Top Players
The Left Coast Connection was 18-12, 60 percent during the conference tournaments. Here are their consensus plays.
Top - Xavier
The Rest - Notre Dame - Oral Roberts - Kent State - Marquette.
They were split down the middle on Bay/Pur, Wash. St/Winthrop, Mich. St./Temple and USC/K-State.
Top - Xavier
The Rest - Notre Dame - Oral Roberts - Kent State - Marquette.
They were split down the middle on Bay/Pur, Wash. St/Winthrop, Mich. St./Temple and USC/K-State.
NCAA Tournament Picks
After a so-so regular season and a less than adequate conference tournament campaign, it is time to cash in. In all honesty, I'm feeling very confident. I'm more prepared then I have been in a couple of years. This year, if I lose, no regrets, I studied and prepared as well as I could, but really don't see that happening.
Here are picks:
4* Xavier
3* Kent State -BYU -USC
2* West Virginia - Purdue - Temple - Oral Roberts
Good luck to you today!
Here are picks:
4* Xavier
3* Kent State -BYU -USC
2* West Virginia - Purdue - Temple - Oral Roberts
Good luck to you today!
Betting System for First Round NCAA Tournament
The NCAA Basketball Tournament clock is ticking to start yet another exciting and thrilling event. By now, you have filled out your brackets and it is time to get down to serious business. Linemakers from all the wagering outlets in Las Vegas and the state of Nevada have diligently put out numbers designed to attract action on both sides, to gobble up the “juice”. This time of year, no funny business, no theories about oddsmakers setting traps, this is wagering in its purest form, pitting the college basketball bettor against those making the numbers, going mano-a- mano.
In order to pick winners in the first round, you need solid information. It is often difficult to gain much of an edge since they seldom have played similar opponents and can have vastly different conference power ratings. Thus the question becomes what can I do to give myself the best chance to win over the first 32 games of the tournament?
What I have done for the last 18 years is find the records of all D-1 schools exactly one month before the bids are announced. This year that would be the games played from the morning of February 18 to present. This is the center piece this system, because once the bids are announced, that’s when it is time to go into action. Whether you make in a spreadsheet or do the old school paper and pencil, this is what a matchup should look like in a hypothetical situation.
Kansas State 18-6 22-11 4-3 3rd 3rd lost in semis
We. Kentucky 21-5 27-6 6-1 1st 1st 1st
Compare the records of the teams that made the tourney from a month ago vs. what they are now that they have been selected to participate in the field of 65. (The first two numbers) Determine what the difference is for their record over the last month. (Third number) Take their previous position in the league standings and once again compare them to what they were at the end of the regular season. (The fourth and fifth numbers) The last piece of this exercise is how they finished in their conference tourney. (The last number)
In this contest, we have a power conference team from the Big 12 in Kansas State, who despite some big victories this season, has been rather ordinary to close the season, against Western Kentucky who has sustained exceptional play all season and took care of business in Sun Belt post-season tournament. Kansas State’s problems have revolved around the lack of consistent guard play, leaving Michael Beasley to carry the Wildcats. For Western Kentucky, they have three senior guards, which is a tremendous asset, especially come tournament time. In this scenario, K-State is higher seed and favored to beat Hilltoppers, yet are only 3-8 against the spread in last 11 contests. Coincidently, Western Kentucky closed the season 5-0 and 7-3 ATS. Here we would have a live underdog playing extremely well, against a perceived power with outstanding individual talent, who seems to be slipping, offering value as dog.
Here is another example; in this case we have two bigger name teams in what could be viewed as a 6 vs.11 first round matchup, with each finishing season differently.
Michigan State 20-5 25-8 5-3 2nd 4th lost in semis
Kentucky 13-10 20-12 8-2 4th 2nd lost in finals
The Spartans don’t look too bad record wise; however they have slowly been slipping since the beginning of February. Kentucky on the other hand has come on like gang-busters and is easy on the eyes, like one of their biggest supporters Ashley Judd. Michigan State would be expected to be a smaller favorite, with the Wildcats having excellent potential with the points or as a money line play.
In the 18 years of using this system, I have had only three losing opening rounds, including last year, when it was chalk city. If this sounds like bragging, it is not. Just like going through the FoxSheets on a daily basis or reviewing the free material on the website, the hard work pays off because of what has been accomplished all year. What this could do for you is turn a losing day into a profitable one, or take a good day and make it one you’ll never forget.
After careful study, here are the teams in the first round that fit this particular system: USC, Temple, BYU, San Diego, West Virginia and Xavier. Each has a decisive edge over opponent and should be given consideration. Please understand this is not the sole reason to play any of these teams listed, just a solid track record of success from a rather simplistic system.
I wrote this article for StatFox.com.
In order to pick winners in the first round, you need solid information. It is often difficult to gain much of an edge since they seldom have played similar opponents and can have vastly different conference power ratings. Thus the question becomes what can I do to give myself the best chance to win over the first 32 games of the tournament?
What I have done for the last 18 years is find the records of all D-1 schools exactly one month before the bids are announced. This year that would be the games played from the morning of February 18 to present. This is the center piece this system, because once the bids are announced, that’s when it is time to go into action. Whether you make in a spreadsheet or do the old school paper and pencil, this is what a matchup should look like in a hypothetical situation.
Kansas State 18-6 22-11 4-3 3rd 3rd lost in semis
We. Kentucky 21-5 27-6 6-1 1st 1st 1st
Compare the records of the teams that made the tourney from a month ago vs. what they are now that they have been selected to participate in the field of 65. (The first two numbers) Determine what the difference is for their record over the last month. (Third number) Take their previous position in the league standings and once again compare them to what they were at the end of the regular season. (The fourth and fifth numbers) The last piece of this exercise is how they finished in their conference tourney. (The last number)
In this contest, we have a power conference team from the Big 12 in Kansas State, who despite some big victories this season, has been rather ordinary to close the season, against Western Kentucky who has sustained exceptional play all season and took care of business in Sun Belt post-season tournament. Kansas State’s problems have revolved around the lack of consistent guard play, leaving Michael Beasley to carry the Wildcats. For Western Kentucky, they have three senior guards, which is a tremendous asset, especially come tournament time. In this scenario, K-State is higher seed and favored to beat Hilltoppers, yet are only 3-8 against the spread in last 11 contests. Coincidently, Western Kentucky closed the season 5-0 and 7-3 ATS. Here we would have a live underdog playing extremely well, against a perceived power with outstanding individual talent, who seems to be slipping, offering value as dog.
Here is another example; in this case we have two bigger name teams in what could be viewed as a 6 vs.11 first round matchup, with each finishing season differently.
Michigan State 20-5 25-8 5-3 2nd 4th lost in semis
Kentucky 13-10 20-12 8-2 4th 2nd lost in finals
The Spartans don’t look too bad record wise; however they have slowly been slipping since the beginning of February. Kentucky on the other hand has come on like gang-busters and is easy on the eyes, like one of their biggest supporters Ashley Judd. Michigan State would be expected to be a smaller favorite, with the Wildcats having excellent potential with the points or as a money line play.
In the 18 years of using this system, I have had only three losing opening rounds, including last year, when it was chalk city. If this sounds like bragging, it is not. Just like going through the FoxSheets on a daily basis or reviewing the free material on the website, the hard work pays off because of what has been accomplished all year. What this could do for you is turn a losing day into a profitable one, or take a good day and make it one you’ll never forget.
After careful study, here are the teams in the first round that fit this particular system: USC, Temple, BYU, San Diego, West Virginia and Xavier. Each has a decisive edge over opponent and should be given consideration. Please understand this is not the sole reason to play any of these teams listed, just a solid track record of success from a rather simplistic system.
I wrote this article for StatFox.com.
Betting Future Winner of NCAA Tournament
The field of 65 is set; you like many people have filled out numerous brackets in a variety of pools and now it is time to start breaking down the various first round matchups, looking for edges and spotting those potential early round exits by favorites. Having the benefit of using the point spread helps in many cases and mustering up the courage on money line dogs is another way to make hard currency when betting college basketball. But what about home run wager, picking the winner of the entire NCAA Tournament, which can offer a decent payout depending on the winner.
Even with the large field, most years, around 12 teams have legitimate chance of winning six games in a row. Long shots are great; however they don’t bring home the cash, betting futures. In the last decade, only teams seeded 1, 2 or 3 have emerged as champions. Lute Olson’s 1997 Arizona Wildcats were the last team that was not among the top tier of teams as a four-seed. In the 1980’s, we had Danny Manning and the Miracles in 1988 as a sixth-seed and Jim Valvano’s incredible stretch in 1983 with North Carolina State.
Each year, the litany of ways to select a champion is trotted out. Among the various aspects that are all noteworthy are veteran players, point guard play and defensive shooting percentages. Each in there own right holds value and opens the window to opportunity.
Jimmy Dykes, an analyst for ESPN, in February introduced another process, to help pick the national champion of college basketball. Dykes played for the Arkansas Razorbacks basketball team and graduated in 1985. He has been an assistant coach at schools like Kentucky, Oklahoma State and his alma mater, along with being a scout for Seattle in the NBA.
Dykes is teamed with Brad Nessler and has been given the green light this season to be more personality-oriented and has had very interesting observations throughout the season. He went back researched what characteristics make up a national champ. Here is his list and what has occurred.
7 of 7 past champions had a 10 or more games winning streak
18 of 20 past champions had NBA player 6’8 or taller
19 of 20 past champions had NBA guard
7 of 10 past champions won conference tournament
It is important to understand what each of these points mean. First, if a team has a long winning streak of 10 or more, to whatever degree, they must be a good team. This season, 21 teams that made the field of 65, have won this many games in a row. Some teams could schedule there way into this many wins consecutively; however in reviewing this list, you see this consists primarily of college basketballs hierarchy.
Number of consecutive wins:
26 – Memphis
21- Drake
20 – Davidson, Kansas
18- North Carolina
16- Vanderbilt, Cornell
14- Washington State
13- Indiana
12 – Duke
11- Xavier, Texas, Purdue, Michigan State, Tennessee and Western Kentucky
10- Clemson, Notre Dame, Connecticut, Wisconsin and South Alabama
Absent from this list are such notable teams like UCLA, Georgetown, Louisville and Stanford, all teams that will be in anyone’s discussion of eventual champions of college hoops.
The next two points have to do with one of the key ingredients and really why the higher seeds have dominated this tournament, talent. Dykes had the revisionist ability to look back and see if different players had the skill and ability to play at the next level. For our purposes, we can only surmise what looks to be accurate, without having full knowledge.
Having a taller player with NBA ability allows teams to score points in the paint and likely grab more offensive and defensive rebounds. Having a guard with professional basketball ability, means any or all of three things can happen. The guard can create dribble penetration to either score or set-up teammates to score. He has the ability to take over games at this level, by individual play and can win a game or two literally by himself, when the team is struggling.
In reviewing above list, Memphis has Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose in the backcourt. It would be a shock, if both don’t play at the next level. John Dorsey and Robert Dozier should make somebody’s roster.
The next two teams of this group are Drake and Davidson, who have talented, smart college players who have a wonderful understanding of how to play the game. Josh Young and Missouri Valley player of the year Adam Emmenecker are splendid talents, that don’t have the size to make it in NBA. The Bulldogs have unique frontcourt college players, which doesn’t transfer well when moving up. Davidson has a player of pedigree in Stephen Curry, whose dad Dell, played a long time in the NBA. The younger Curry has NBA-range, but is frail looking as 6’2 or 6’3 shooting guard.
Kansas, like Memphis, has three NBA players on the roster, in guard Brandon Rush and forwards Darrell Arthur and Darnell Jackson, both 6’8 or taller. Even Sasha Kahn is being talked about as a nice backup center at the next level. North Carolina is next and has bountiful talent, yet in truth, is border-line in using this assessment. Tyler Hansbrough will play in NBA, but the guard position is more questionable. Wayne Ellington, Marcus Ginyard, and Danny Green all show moments of brilliance, buts does it transfer out of college basketball? Ty Lawson is phenomenal talent, nonetheless is listed as 5’11. Ellington is a very good shooter and will in all likelihood be NBA player. Don’t misunderstand, North Carolina is odds on favorite, it is just using aforementioned criteria.
In breaking down many of the other clubs, most come short. Cornell has exceptional Ivy League talent. Xavier, Michigan State, Clemson, Western Kentucky, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Duke and South Alabama all have one very good player and several that are above average collegiate players.
Tennessee, Indiana and Connecticut all have substantial NBA-type players. For the Vols, it is Wayne Chism near the basket and more likely JuJuan Smith than Chris Lofton at guard position. The Hoosiers have D.J. White, who had superb senior season and freshman Eric Gordon, who should stay at IU for another year of seasoning. UConn has ever-improving center Hasheem Thabeet and guard A.J. Price, who past the eyeball test.
A few teams are very close conceptually like Vanderbilt, Texas and Washington State. The Commodores have Shan Foster, who can shoot lights out and A.J. Ogilvy in the paint, yet does anyone really believe Vandy could win six games away from Nashville? Texas has explosive A.J. Augustin and 6’10 Connor Atchley, whose stock is rising, still he is fourth scoring option most games. With the Cougars style of play, it is difficult to properly assess if Kyle Weaver and Aron Baynes are next level talents. If one wants optimistic view, go with yes, but can you trust team that averages then 67.1 points a game to put together six game winning streak?
Moving on, 70 percent of the teams that have a national championship the last decade won there conference tournament. Interestingly enough, the teams with the five longest winning streaks in the country during the regular season all won there post-season tournaments. A few years ago, a belief was floating around; losing in postseason tourneys was a good thing, allowing teams to rest more. Yet as we see, the power of momentum carries far greater importance, especially when it coming to cutting down the nets and be given the trophy by Jim Nantz and Billy Packer.
The ground rules are in place, the field is set, what teams meet all the criteria to be solid wagers to be crowned champions? There are three teams that stand above the rest and they are all numbers one seeds. They are North Carolina, Kansas and Memphis. Each has the long winning streak, each has the proper talent both inside and outside and each won conference tournament. The most recent odds available have North Carolina 4-1, Kansas 5-1, and Memphis 6-1.
Hope this helps you make a greater evaluation as to what teams could be the NCAA national basketball champions. Good Luck.
Even with the large field, most years, around 12 teams have legitimate chance of winning six games in a row. Long shots are great; however they don’t bring home the cash, betting futures. In the last decade, only teams seeded 1, 2 or 3 have emerged as champions. Lute Olson’s 1997 Arizona Wildcats were the last team that was not among the top tier of teams as a four-seed. In the 1980’s, we had Danny Manning and the Miracles in 1988 as a sixth-seed and Jim Valvano’s incredible stretch in 1983 with North Carolina State.
Each year, the litany of ways to select a champion is trotted out. Among the various aspects that are all noteworthy are veteran players, point guard play and defensive shooting percentages. Each in there own right holds value and opens the window to opportunity.
Jimmy Dykes, an analyst for ESPN, in February introduced another process, to help pick the national champion of college basketball. Dykes played for the Arkansas Razorbacks basketball team and graduated in 1985. He has been an assistant coach at schools like Kentucky, Oklahoma State and his alma mater, along with being a scout for Seattle in the NBA.
Dykes is teamed with Brad Nessler and has been given the green light this season to be more personality-oriented and has had very interesting observations throughout the season. He went back researched what characteristics make up a national champ. Here is his list and what has occurred.
7 of 7 past champions had a 10 or more games winning streak
18 of 20 past champions had NBA player 6’8 or taller
19 of 20 past champions had NBA guard
7 of 10 past champions won conference tournament
It is important to understand what each of these points mean. First, if a team has a long winning streak of 10 or more, to whatever degree, they must be a good team. This season, 21 teams that made the field of 65, have won this many games in a row. Some teams could schedule there way into this many wins consecutively; however in reviewing this list, you see this consists primarily of college basketballs hierarchy.
Number of consecutive wins:
26 – Memphis
21- Drake
20 – Davidson, Kansas
18- North Carolina
16- Vanderbilt, Cornell
14- Washington State
13- Indiana
12 – Duke
11- Xavier, Texas, Purdue, Michigan State, Tennessee and Western Kentucky
10- Clemson, Notre Dame, Connecticut, Wisconsin and South Alabama
Absent from this list are such notable teams like UCLA, Georgetown, Louisville and Stanford, all teams that will be in anyone’s discussion of eventual champions of college hoops.
The next two points have to do with one of the key ingredients and really why the higher seeds have dominated this tournament, talent. Dykes had the revisionist ability to look back and see if different players had the skill and ability to play at the next level. For our purposes, we can only surmise what looks to be accurate, without having full knowledge.
Having a taller player with NBA ability allows teams to score points in the paint and likely grab more offensive and defensive rebounds. Having a guard with professional basketball ability, means any or all of three things can happen. The guard can create dribble penetration to either score or set-up teammates to score. He has the ability to take over games at this level, by individual play and can win a game or two literally by himself, when the team is struggling.
In reviewing above list, Memphis has Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose in the backcourt. It would be a shock, if both don’t play at the next level. John Dorsey and Robert Dozier should make somebody’s roster.
The next two teams of this group are Drake and Davidson, who have talented, smart college players who have a wonderful understanding of how to play the game. Josh Young and Missouri Valley player of the year Adam Emmenecker are splendid talents, that don’t have the size to make it in NBA. The Bulldogs have unique frontcourt college players, which doesn’t transfer well when moving up. Davidson has a player of pedigree in Stephen Curry, whose dad Dell, played a long time in the NBA. The younger Curry has NBA-range, but is frail looking as 6’2 or 6’3 shooting guard.
Kansas, like Memphis, has three NBA players on the roster, in guard Brandon Rush and forwards Darrell Arthur and Darnell Jackson, both 6’8 or taller. Even Sasha Kahn is being talked about as a nice backup center at the next level. North Carolina is next and has bountiful talent, yet in truth, is border-line in using this assessment. Tyler Hansbrough will play in NBA, but the guard position is more questionable. Wayne Ellington, Marcus Ginyard, and Danny Green all show moments of brilliance, buts does it transfer out of college basketball? Ty Lawson is phenomenal talent, nonetheless is listed as 5’11. Ellington is a very good shooter and will in all likelihood be NBA player. Don’t misunderstand, North Carolina is odds on favorite, it is just using aforementioned criteria.
In breaking down many of the other clubs, most come short. Cornell has exceptional Ivy League talent. Xavier, Michigan State, Clemson, Western Kentucky, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Duke and South Alabama all have one very good player and several that are above average collegiate players.
Tennessee, Indiana and Connecticut all have substantial NBA-type players. For the Vols, it is Wayne Chism near the basket and more likely JuJuan Smith than Chris Lofton at guard position. The Hoosiers have D.J. White, who had superb senior season and freshman Eric Gordon, who should stay at IU for another year of seasoning. UConn has ever-improving center Hasheem Thabeet and guard A.J. Price, who past the eyeball test.
A few teams are very close conceptually like Vanderbilt, Texas and Washington State. The Commodores have Shan Foster, who can shoot lights out and A.J. Ogilvy in the paint, yet does anyone really believe Vandy could win six games away from Nashville? Texas has explosive A.J. Augustin and 6’10 Connor Atchley, whose stock is rising, still he is fourth scoring option most games. With the Cougars style of play, it is difficult to properly assess if Kyle Weaver and Aron Baynes are next level talents. If one wants optimistic view, go with yes, but can you trust team that averages then 67.1 points a game to put together six game winning streak?
Moving on, 70 percent of the teams that have a national championship the last decade won there conference tournament. Interestingly enough, the teams with the five longest winning streaks in the country during the regular season all won there post-season tournaments. A few years ago, a belief was floating around; losing in postseason tourneys was a good thing, allowing teams to rest more. Yet as we see, the power of momentum carries far greater importance, especially when it coming to cutting down the nets and be given the trophy by Jim Nantz and Billy Packer.
The ground rules are in place, the field is set, what teams meet all the criteria to be solid wagers to be crowned champions? There are three teams that stand above the rest and they are all numbers one seeds. They are North Carolina, Kansas and Memphis. Each has the long winning streak, each has the proper talent both inside and outside and each won conference tournament. The most recent odds available have North Carolina 4-1, Kansas 5-1, and Memphis 6-1.
Hope this helps you make a greater evaluation as to what teams could be the NCAA national basketball champions. Good Luck.
NCAA Tourney Talk
In order to move ahead, you have to know where you came from. Here are observations from the conference tournaments.
North Carolina played hard when they needed to. This is Final Four material and they should get there, but this team has the defensive attention span of a small child. Virginia Tech schooled them for 32 minutes until they quit dreaming about playing the Dukies again. Speaking of the Coach K's, Sweet 16 at best for this bunch. They have peaked and have almost nothing inside. Players look worn out from long season.
Temple won the A-10, did you realize they were 13-11 a month ago? This team can shoot and will upset Michigan State in opening game, in humble opinion. (Not that humble really) Xavier, just not that that enamored with them.
If Pittsburgh could play like they did for 4 days in the Big Apple, this team would be Elite 8 material. Never like teams that win four in four in NCAA, too much emotion sucked out. G-Town capable, yet something not quite right, no Final Four. One team that looked like a lock for San Antonio even two weeks ago was Louisville; however recent games have me thinking otherwise. The Cardinals play their best when the ball goes through David Padgett. The courageous center appears to be wearing down and his teammates don't have the ball go through him enough on offense. UConn not going anywhere, Notre Dame lacks quickness (thou dangerous shooters), West Virginia could surprise once, Marquette beats Kentucky and could defeat Stanford if bigs hold there own against Stanford twins.
I did manage to get a little shuteye when Big Ten games were on. These games are like global warming, you know something is happening, but you don't need to watch all the time, because it is moving so slowing. If you saw Minnesota make miracle shot against Indiana (very cool), before that it appeared the fix was in as Big Ten officials called two stupid fouls on Golden Gophers in final seconds, which were marginal at best. The impression was they were doing everything to have Hoosiers advance, except they kept missing free throws. Not on conspiracy bandwagon, yet it was tough not to notice. Wisconsin wins a couple, so does Purdue, Indiana is gone quicker then a Kelvin Sampson dropped call. The talent level is terrible in this league, need new coaches with different ideas.
Kansas and Texas played the best game all week in in Big 12 title game. Two great teams, playing flawless offense, this is what James Naismith had in mind.
According to unofficial poll, 90 percent of for pay handicappers had Akron beating Kent State. I sent out email to Left Coast group, Kent State is real deal, they'll win by double digits. At least that was right. Good solid team that beats UNLV and gives Kansas trouble for longer than presumed.
BYU is better then UNLV, just couldn't overcome Rebels home court edge. If Texas A&M is not ready, Cougars cruise past Aggies. Watch Trent Plaisted, he's good.
Pac-10 tourney is hard to watch in early rounds, looks like Atlanta Hawks game with so few people in stands. UCLA is incredibly tough-minded and so is USC for that matter. Stanford is not and really is poor shooting team outside of 12 feet. If they could shoot, they would be cutting down the nets. Washington State fits right into Big Ten and Arizona is more up and down then a ride to Flagstaff on I-17.
Georgia winning the SEC is cute story, but what does that say about the league? Tennessee suddenly couldn't guard a rail, Vandy only wins at home, Mississippi State couldn't beat a tired Bulldog and Arkansas played like they were playing three games in 29.5 hours. Vols style can be tricky for opponent that haven't faced them, otherwise forget it.
Smaller conference impressions: Love Drake, Western Kentucky better than expected and Boise State the same.
Will post interesting NCAA system on Tuesday.
North Carolina played hard when they needed to. This is Final Four material and they should get there, but this team has the defensive attention span of a small child. Virginia Tech schooled them for 32 minutes until they quit dreaming about playing the Dukies again. Speaking of the Coach K's, Sweet 16 at best for this bunch. They have peaked and have almost nothing inside. Players look worn out from long season.
Temple won the A-10, did you realize they were 13-11 a month ago? This team can shoot and will upset Michigan State in opening game, in humble opinion. (Not that humble really) Xavier, just not that that enamored with them.
If Pittsburgh could play like they did for 4 days in the Big Apple, this team would be Elite 8 material. Never like teams that win four in four in NCAA, too much emotion sucked out. G-Town capable, yet something not quite right, no Final Four. One team that looked like a lock for San Antonio even two weeks ago was Louisville; however recent games have me thinking otherwise. The Cardinals play their best when the ball goes through David Padgett. The courageous center appears to be wearing down and his teammates don't have the ball go through him enough on offense. UConn not going anywhere, Notre Dame lacks quickness (thou dangerous shooters), West Virginia could surprise once, Marquette beats Kentucky and could defeat Stanford if bigs hold there own against Stanford twins.
I did manage to get a little shuteye when Big Ten games were on. These games are like global warming, you know something is happening, but you don't need to watch all the time, because it is moving so slowing. If you saw Minnesota make miracle shot against Indiana (very cool), before that it appeared the fix was in as Big Ten officials called two stupid fouls on Golden Gophers in final seconds, which were marginal at best. The impression was they were doing everything to have Hoosiers advance, except they kept missing free throws. Not on conspiracy bandwagon, yet it was tough not to notice. Wisconsin wins a couple, so does Purdue, Indiana is gone quicker then a Kelvin Sampson dropped call. The talent level is terrible in this league, need new coaches with different ideas.
Kansas and Texas played the best game all week in in Big 12 title game. Two great teams, playing flawless offense, this is what James Naismith had in mind.
According to unofficial poll, 90 percent of for pay handicappers had Akron beating Kent State. I sent out email to Left Coast group, Kent State is real deal, they'll win by double digits. At least that was right. Good solid team that beats UNLV and gives Kansas trouble for longer than presumed.
BYU is better then UNLV, just couldn't overcome Rebels home court edge. If Texas A&M is not ready, Cougars cruise past Aggies. Watch Trent Plaisted, he's good.
Pac-10 tourney is hard to watch in early rounds, looks like Atlanta Hawks game with so few people in stands. UCLA is incredibly tough-minded and so is USC for that matter. Stanford is not and really is poor shooting team outside of 12 feet. If they could shoot, they would be cutting down the nets. Washington State fits right into Big Ten and Arizona is more up and down then a ride to Flagstaff on I-17.
Georgia winning the SEC is cute story, but what does that say about the league? Tennessee suddenly couldn't guard a rail, Vandy only wins at home, Mississippi State couldn't beat a tired Bulldog and Arkansas played like they were playing three games in 29.5 hours. Vols style can be tricky for opponent that haven't faced them, otherwise forget it.
Smaller conference impressions: Love Drake, Western Kentucky better than expected and Boise State the same.
Will post interesting NCAA system on Tuesday.
System Suggests Fade Suns
When Shaquille O’Neal joined the Phoenix, he and those within the organization said they would need 10 games to get things ironed out and would be ready from that point. Fans who attend games at Planet Orange (US Airways Arena) and others who regularly follow the club hope that assessment is accurate, since Phoenix is 4-6 straight up and against the spread over the last 12.2 percent of the NBA schedule. Phoenix has fallen from second in the Western Conference to sixth and could make run for best of the West or fall out of the playoff picture all together, depending on what occurs the next 19 games.
Arriving in the desert is one of the worst teams in the West in the Memphis Grizzlies, who gave up essentially when they traded Pau Gasol to the Lakers. Memphis has won two games since January 26 (2-16, 5-13 ATS) as they try and build team around youngsters like Rudy Gay and Mile Conley Jr. The Grizzlies have one road win 2008, which took place 15 games ago against Indiana on January 2, 90-72 as six point underdogs. For basketball bettors looking for the glass half full, Memphis is 7-7 ATS in last 14 road losses.
Bookmaker.com opened Phoenix as 14-point home favorites and bettors trampled the line, betting up Suns to present 15.5-points. Based on this about to be announced system, has this been a wise wagering method?
Play Against favorites like Phoenix of 10 or more points after having lost four or five of their last six games against opponent after having lost five or six of their last seven games.
What this system is suggesting is two teams are not playing very well at present. Though the double digit favorite is without a doubt the better squad, they have been off-kilter and would figure not to be motivated and play best basketball against inferior opponent.
In the last five years, this system has won 76.2 percent of the time with 32-10 record. The average spread margin has seen the favorite at 11.2 points, with the final score differential coming in well below, at 7.7 points over the 42 contests.
The results over the last few of seasons have been even better at 18-4, 81.8 percent.
Backing bad teams is often hard to do with hard earned cash, however having a strong system for support takes out a large portion of the risk.
This is article I wrote for StatFox.com.
Arriving in the desert is one of the worst teams in the West in the Memphis Grizzlies, who gave up essentially when they traded Pau Gasol to the Lakers. Memphis has won two games since January 26 (2-16, 5-13 ATS) as they try and build team around youngsters like Rudy Gay and Mile Conley Jr. The Grizzlies have one road win 2008, which took place 15 games ago against Indiana on January 2, 90-72 as six point underdogs. For basketball bettors looking for the glass half full, Memphis is 7-7 ATS in last 14 road losses.
Bookmaker.com opened Phoenix as 14-point home favorites and bettors trampled the line, betting up Suns to present 15.5-points. Based on this about to be announced system, has this been a wise wagering method?
Play Against favorites like Phoenix of 10 or more points after having lost four or five of their last six games against opponent after having lost five or six of their last seven games.
What this system is suggesting is two teams are not playing very well at present. Though the double digit favorite is without a doubt the better squad, they have been off-kilter and would figure not to be motivated and play best basketball against inferior opponent.
In the last five years, this system has won 76.2 percent of the time with 32-10 record. The average spread margin has seen the favorite at 11.2 points, with the final score differential coming in well below, at 7.7 points over the 42 contests.
The results over the last few of seasons have been even better at 18-4, 81.8 percent.
Backing bad teams is often hard to do with hard earned cash, however having a strong system for support takes out a large portion of the risk.
This is article I wrote for StatFox.com.
What was learned from College Hoops weekend
North Carolina passed the acid test in beating Duke in Durham 76-68. What was especially impressive was the Tar Heels defense, which has caused coach Roy Williams hair to go from gray to white this season. All year he has pleaded with his team to quit playing like the Phoenix Suns and get in a defensive stance and guard somebody, they did in holding Duke to 32.9 percent shooting. They are certainly capable of winning six straight once the bids come out.
Duke is 4-3 in last seven games and is looking like a team that has peaked. This is becoming disturbing trend in Durham, as Coach K's squads play hard and seem to overachieve and peter out late in the year. Without knowing brackets, I'll have Dukies exit in Sweet 16. One weird aspect of UNC/Duke was the number of bad shots both teams took. Sure the defense was good, both were out of character, throwing up shots that had about as much chance as Ralph Nadar for prez.
Stanford was flatter than the reviews for "Fools Gold" movie against USC, losing by 13. For the first time all season, was really impressed with O.J. Mayo. He would be a fool to turn pro, because his game is not NBA ready. As current coach Arizona coach Kevin O'Neil said about the NBA lifestyle, "Everyone thinks its exciting and glamorous, but there are no team meals and it is lonely existence for players, especially the younger ones."
If Kansas played all season like they have the last three games, forget Memphis, the Jayhawks would be unbeaten. When this teams brings the 40-minute intensity, Final Four is the minimum. Of course having Bill Self as coach is not a positive come tournament time based on his resume.
In watching Texas A&M, I've been under the impression new coach Mark Turgeon has screwed up, because of the number of inside players the Aggies have, yet they don't score enough in the paint. I'll retract part of that thought, as it was apparent these guys just don't know what to do and lack moves that should have, like Joseph Jones being more effective. In retrospect, it seems like they have not worked hard enough to get better. I do wonder where Turgeon was in the process however.
Drake is the most fun team in the country to watch. They are unflappable and execute so well on offense and defense, they are remarkable. They'll probably end up five or six seed and will be in Sweet 16. They space the floor so well and play smart, they can beat superior athletes with basketball IQ. When on offense, if they don't have quick three available, they'll run shot clock down to five or less and score. Teams having to guard for 30 seconds and have no payoff, will not do so for very long. Their defense is also underrated, using matchup zone. While they are not tall on the perimeter, each defender has longer arms, meaning they tip away more balls in passing lanes then you might believe.
Watched Kent State and Akron and every capper I saw had Zips. In the last couple of weeks, Kent State has won at St. Mary's and Akron, meaning this is a very good basketball team not getting props. Two players to watch for Golden Flashes are junior guard Al Fisher and F Haminn Quaintance.
It's a shame when officials have a direct impact on any game, but the stripes gave UCLA a dose of home cooking in come from behind wins against Stanford and Cal. Granted, the Bruins had feverish rally's in both games and made the most important shots to pull off wins, yet the two calls, one in each game, undoubtedly put Ben Howland's squad in position to win. UCLA is hard enough to beat already without additional help.
Any discussion about what is the best conference is closed. The Pac-10's 9th place team is Cal, who split with USC, won at Washington, at Washington State, at Arizona State and should have won at Westwood. They have two players that will be drafted in the NBA in DeVon Hardin and Ryan Anderson, meaning they are load on any night.
Duke is 4-3 in last seven games and is looking like a team that has peaked. This is becoming disturbing trend in Durham, as Coach K's squads play hard and seem to overachieve and peter out late in the year. Without knowing brackets, I'll have Dukies exit in Sweet 16. One weird aspect of UNC/Duke was the number of bad shots both teams took. Sure the defense was good, both were out of character, throwing up shots that had about as much chance as Ralph Nadar for prez.
Stanford was flatter than the reviews for "Fools Gold" movie against USC, losing by 13. For the first time all season, was really impressed with O.J. Mayo. He would be a fool to turn pro, because his game is not NBA ready. As current coach Arizona coach Kevin O'Neil said about the NBA lifestyle, "Everyone thinks its exciting and glamorous, but there are no team meals and it is lonely existence for players, especially the younger ones."
If Kansas played all season like they have the last three games, forget Memphis, the Jayhawks would be unbeaten. When this teams brings the 40-minute intensity, Final Four is the minimum. Of course having Bill Self as coach is not a positive come tournament time based on his resume.
In watching Texas A&M, I've been under the impression new coach Mark Turgeon has screwed up, because of the number of inside players the Aggies have, yet they don't score enough in the paint. I'll retract part of that thought, as it was apparent these guys just don't know what to do and lack moves that should have, like Joseph Jones being more effective. In retrospect, it seems like they have not worked hard enough to get better. I do wonder where Turgeon was in the process however.
Drake is the most fun team in the country to watch. They are unflappable and execute so well on offense and defense, they are remarkable. They'll probably end up five or six seed and will be in Sweet 16. They space the floor so well and play smart, they can beat superior athletes with basketball IQ. When on offense, if they don't have quick three available, they'll run shot clock down to five or less and score. Teams having to guard for 30 seconds and have no payoff, will not do so for very long. Their defense is also underrated, using matchup zone. While they are not tall on the perimeter, each defender has longer arms, meaning they tip away more balls in passing lanes then you might believe.
Watched Kent State and Akron and every capper I saw had Zips. In the last couple of weeks, Kent State has won at St. Mary's and Akron, meaning this is a very good basketball team not getting props. Two players to watch for Golden Flashes are junior guard Al Fisher and F Haminn Quaintance.
It's a shame when officials have a direct impact on any game, but the stripes gave UCLA a dose of home cooking in come from behind wins against Stanford and Cal. Granted, the Bruins had feverish rally's in both games and made the most important shots to pull off wins, yet the two calls, one in each game, undoubtedly put Ben Howland's squad in position to win. UCLA is hard enough to beat already without additional help.
Any discussion about what is the best conference is closed. The Pac-10's 9th place team is Cal, who split with USC, won at Washington, at Washington State, at Arizona State and should have won at Westwood. They have two players that will be drafted in the NBA in DeVon Hardin and Ryan Anderson, meaning they are load on any night.
Deep Card of Selections
Have a ton of selections on the last big regular season Saturday.
CBB
3* Austin Peay - UNC-Wilmington
2* Wake Forest- UAB- Texas Tech- Dayton- UNLV-Wofford-Rider-George Mason-N.M. State- Santa Clara
Still wondering about Northern Iowa and Valpo, will decide later.
NBA
3* New Orleans
2* Orlando-Indiana-Utah
It seems crazy to go against Houston with there current astonishing winning streak, yet like the Hornets road record as well.
NHL
Montreal -126
NJ/Tor U5.5
The Left Coast Connection has five CBB plays and one NBA. In college hoops they have Wake Forest, UNLV, Texas A&M, Texas Tech and UNC-Wilmington. The Jazz is there pick in the pros. Hopefully many of you can profit from these. Good Luck
CBB
3* Austin Peay - UNC-Wilmington
2* Wake Forest- UAB- Texas Tech- Dayton- UNLV-Wofford-Rider-George Mason-N.M. State- Santa Clara
Still wondering about Northern Iowa and Valpo, will decide later.
NBA
3* New Orleans
2* Orlando-Indiana-Utah
It seems crazy to go against Houston with there current astonishing winning streak, yet like the Hornets road record as well.
NHL
Montreal -126
NJ/Tor U5.5
The Left Coast Connection has five CBB plays and one NBA. In college hoops they have Wake Forest, UNLV, Texas A&M, Texas Tech and UNC-Wilmington. The Jazz is there pick in the pros. Hopefully many of you can profit from these. Good Luck
College Hoops Rocks
How can person say they like college basketball and just not be glued to the TV or computer screen the next month. Upsets, great finishes and exciting games, a great time of year.
Yesterday I was 1-1 in CBB, 1-0 in the NBA and took another shot to the gut on the NHL as Columbus lost 2-1 to Edmonton. On to better days.
Yesterday I was 1-1 in CBB, 1-0 in the NBA and took another shot to the gut on the NHL as Columbus lost 2-1 to Edmonton. On to better days.
March 6 Picks
Got whacked pretty good yesterday, however is always case, there is another day.
NBA
2* Dallas -1
CBB
2* Clemson -3, Boise State -2
NHL
Nashville +133, Carolina +110, Pittsburgh -116
I promised up to date records, here they are:
CBB 174-161-7 +9.1 units
NBA 77-77-1 -12.5 units
NHL 63-71 -23.1 units
In truth, not pleased about either basketball numbers. In college basketball, it has been an up and down ride. Started smokin' hot and went colder than the Midwest winter in January. Rebounded in February with consistent winning, but have been fading of late. I have extreme confidence for the conference tournaments, which I have always done.
The NBA has been this all season, win three, lose three. Trying to find a way like last year to get hot at the end of the season and have it continue into playoffs.
I make the picks, however been out-sourcing the hockey picks, clearly with pretty sad results. I'll finish out the season and might skip next year based on these numbers.
Good Luck tonight.
NBA
2* Dallas -1
CBB
2* Clemson -3, Boise State -2
NHL
Nashville +133, Carolina +110, Pittsburgh -116
I promised up to date records, here they are:
CBB 174-161-7 +9.1 units
NBA 77-77-1 -12.5 units
NHL 63-71 -23.1 units
In truth, not pleased about either basketball numbers. In college basketball, it has been an up and down ride. Started smokin' hot and went colder than the Midwest winter in January. Rebounded in February with consistent winning, but have been fading of late. I have extreme confidence for the conference tournaments, which I have always done.
The NBA has been this all season, win three, lose three. Trying to find a way like last year to get hot at the end of the season and have it continue into playoffs.
I make the picks, however been out-sourcing the hockey picks, clearly with pretty sad results. I'll finish out the season and might skip next year based on these numbers.
Good Luck tonight.
Today's Plays
In college basketball my plays are (rated 1 to 5 stars)
CBB
3* LSU -2.5, Okla. State -4.5
2* LaSalle +9.5, Midd. Tenn. State -8.5, Vandy -3.5
NBA
3* Indiana +10
2* Cleveland -4, New Orleans -9.5, Phoenix +7
NHL (Money line is always 1 star)
Anaheim -150
Buffalo -113
Tomorrow I'll post my true records in these sports.
The guys from the Left Coast Connection had the following:
NBA - Indiana -Charlotte
CBB - Vandy -Florida - Okla. State
Good Luck tonight.
CBB
3* LSU -2.5, Okla. State -4.5
2* LaSalle +9.5, Midd. Tenn. State -8.5, Vandy -3.5
NBA
3* Indiana +10
2* Cleveland -4, New Orleans -9.5, Phoenix +7
NHL (Money line is always 1 star)
Anaheim -150
Buffalo -113
Tomorrow I'll post my true records in these sports.
The guys from the Left Coast Connection had the following:
NBA - Indiana -Charlotte
CBB - Vandy -Florida - Okla. State
Good Luck tonight.
Let's Get Started
A little background would seem necessary to get things rolling. First, this blog will be about what the title says, sports imformation and wagering on sports. I became really interested in sports betting when I picked up a copy of Gameplan magazine many years ago. It was the first magazine that I'd seen seen that had power ratings, which could lead to predicting the outcomes of games, which I thought was pretty cool. I started working with power ratings and later found a college and pro football annual that has trends. That seemed to feed a sports gambling desire and I was interested in becoming an expert on my own terms about. It amazed me, just proaching the subject, the number of people you could talk to, or be introduced to. Over the years I worked to get better and with a partner, opened up a websize at the height of popularity in 2004.
After reading about how this was going to change my life with all the money I was going to make, I went for it. Well, as most naive people believing untold riches lie just around the corner, I was fooled, even after seeking the help of some of the biggest names in the industry. Don't get me wrong, it was a nice part-time income that allowed me to do a few extra things, but not a lifestyle change. Our track record was pretty good at monitored sites, which helped a great deal.
2004 The Sports Eye 2nd Preseason NFL
2004 Wagertracker 1st Preseason NFL
2004 Gurutracker 8th NFL
2004-05 Wagertacker 1st NBA Best Bets
2004-05 The Sports Eye 1st College Hoops
2004 The Sports Eye 1st Baseball
Things didn't work out with partner so we went our merry way. I continued to handicap games, just on a different level. No longer desiring to sell my own picks, started 3dailywinners. Signed up for a couple of different monitors to see how I would do. Here are the most recent results.
2006 Free Sports Monitor 1st College Football
2007 Free Sports Monitor 4th Baseball
When I was approached about this blog, I told the suitors, I won't be selling my picks, period. Mine will always be FREE. Eventually somebody's picks will be sold here, but only after I'm ready to do so. The picks will be as good or better as any you find, because I know what to look for. No funny business, no garbage and certainly no lies.
This blog will improve it's look in time, but like any worthwhile venture, it will be a work in progress. The additions will be worth visiting as often as you can, that I can promise. So enjoy and hopefully I can make you smarter about sports and the betting game, it not, hey I tried.
After reading about how this was going to change my life with all the money I was going to make, I went for it. Well, as most naive people believing untold riches lie just around the corner, I was fooled, even after seeking the help of some of the biggest names in the industry. Don't get me wrong, it was a nice part-time income that allowed me to do a few extra things, but not a lifestyle change. Our track record was pretty good at monitored sites, which helped a great deal.
2004 The Sports Eye 2nd Preseason NFL
2004 Wagertracker 1st Preseason NFL
2004 Gurutracker 8th NFL
2004-05 Wagertacker 1st NBA Best Bets
2004-05 The Sports Eye 1st College Hoops
2004 The Sports Eye 1st Baseball
Things didn't work out with partner so we went our merry way. I continued to handicap games, just on a different level. No longer desiring to sell my own picks, started 3dailywinners. Signed up for a couple of different monitors to see how I would do. Here are the most recent results.
2006 Free Sports Monitor 1st College Football
2007 Free Sports Monitor 4th Baseball
When I was approached about this blog, I told the suitors, I won't be selling my picks, period. Mine will always be FREE. Eventually somebody's picks will be sold here, but only after I'm ready to do so. The picks will be as good or better as any you find, because I know what to look for. No funny business, no garbage and certainly no lies.
This blog will improve it's look in time, but like any worthwhile venture, it will be a work in progress. The additions will be worth visiting as often as you can, that I can promise. So enjoy and hopefully I can make you smarter about sports and the betting game, it not, hey I tried.
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