Monday MLB Betting - Trends as your Friends

Whether it’s been a good or bad week for those betting on baseball, the beauty of the sport is it will start its 10th week of the season, meaning we’ve gone through a great deal already, with a whole lot more to go. As the week begins anew, here are a number of hot betting trends that will be less controversial than Rachael Ray wearing a scarf pushing Dunkin’ Donuts ice coffee.

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are in first place in the AL West, despite having a team batting average of only .255, which is ninth in the junior circuit. They are thankful not to be their opponent, Seattle, tonight in the series opener between these division rivals who were supposed to be duking it out. The Mariners are the worst wager in the American League at 21-36, -18.1 units. They are 9-25 (-18.4 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse this season, losing by two runs a game.

The defending World Series champion Boston Red Sox have had their problems on the road this season at 14-19 and have lost -7.5 units. After starting 10-game road trip on the West Coast with 1-5 record, the Red Sox returned east and went a place where they have often felt welcomed and enjoyed success. Boston completes a four-game series in Baltimore, having taken the first three at Camdem Yards, moving record to 16-7 at the Orioles ball park. Boston is 24-6 when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

This just in, the Colorado Rockies smell worse than a week old opened can of Coors Light at 20-37 (-18.8 units). The Rockies own the worst record in the majors; have the most negative run differential in baseball at -74 and are otiose 8-23 on the road. Without Troy Tulowitzki, Matt Holliday or Brad Hawpe, punch-less Colorado’s current 0-7 road trip continues in Los Angeles, being 6-23 vs. a good bullpen like the Dodgers, whose ERA is 3.75 or better in 2008.

If there is one team glad to be home today, it is the Atlanta Braves. The team has been one of the biggest mysteries in baseball this year, given their home/road dichotomy. After another sickly road trip that saw Atlanta go 1-5, they return to Turner Field to open up a seven game homestand against Florida and Philadelphia, who are both ahead of them in the NL East. The Braves confidence is boosted being 21-7 at home, winning by two runs a game.

The Chicago Cubs are starting to frighten fans of the lovable losers. With 100 years of failure in the books, the Cubs owned the best record in the major leagues on June 1, the last time that happened, 1908, which happens to be the year of last World Series championship season. Off a perfect 7-0 homestand, Chicago heads to the left coast to play San Diego and are 16-2 after four or more consecutive home games this season. The lovable Cubs are -165 money line favorites to open series and have won these games by better than three runs.

Sunday June 1, Three Daily Winners Betting Info

After our System play produced a comfortable 4-0 winner with Arizona yesterday, the numbers suggest to ride them again today, for far different reasons. Another extra inning loss on the Trend side suggests a little luck is needed more than anything and one of the best AL home teams is up today. The Free plays honestly have not been stellar of late, thus we turn Slick Rick to provide readers a couple of winners. Good Luck.

System -1) PLAY ON home favorites like Arizona with a money line of -175 to -250, who are a solid fielding team, averaging less than a error every other game on the season, against opponent starting a pitcher like Shawn Hill, who walked five or more hitters last outing. This system is an amazing 42-6, 87.5 percent the last 11 seasons, winning by an average of 3.2 runs per game.

Trend – 2) Tampa Bay has second best records in the American League for home record (23-10) and units won (+12) and has won 19 of last 22 at “The Trop” in Tampa.

FREE Selection -3) Slick Rick from the Left Coast Connection is on a hot streak in MLB action, up +9.95 units the last six days and is backing the Giants and the Mets today.

Saturday May 31, Three Daily Winners Betting Info

Went into extra innings to lose two of yesterday’s plays and the Toronto hot bats punished a bad Angels bullpen. Today’s System is a powerful 38-5, the Trend supports an 80.9 winning record and our newest introduction of Kendall, has him backing an American League club. Good Luck.

System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Washington with a money line of +150 or more, versus a starting pitcher like Brandon Webb (9-2, 1.098 WHIP) whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season-NL, with a hot starting pitcher like Jason Bergmann, whose ERA is less than 2.50 (0.00) over his last three starts. The rational for this system is oddsmakers have little faith that a pitcher like Bergmann can keep pitching this well and a top notch hurler like Webb will win. This system is 38-5, 88.4 percent the L5Y.

Trend – 2) Toronto is 17-4 against the money line with a hot bullpen who’s WHIP is under 1.250 the last 15 games this season.

FREE Selection -3) Kendall from the LCC is on 11-3 run in all sports and is taking Cleveland to keep Kansas City’s losing streak intact.

Friday May 30, Three Daily Winners Wagering Tips

As promised here at 3Daily Winners, we got right back on board with two winners and a fortunate push on the Lakers. Today we have a 15-3 System play on an underdog, offering excellent value. Our Trend selection is on another underdog, based on road team being favored with meager record. The FREE play is a consensus play from the LCC. Good Luck.

System -1) PLAY ON road underdogs like the White Sox with a money line of +100 or higher, with a starting pitcher, (J. Contreras 5-3, 1.049) whose WHIP is 1.100 or better on the season-AL, and has pitched even better, with a WHIP 1.100 or less over his last 10 games. In the past five years, this dog has delivered 15 winners in 18 games, 83.3 percent.

Trend – 2) Boston is 2-11 against the money line in road games vs teams who strand 6.9 or fewer runners on base per game this season.

FREE Selection -3) The consensus of players in the Left Coast Connection favors the Halos to beat Toronto.

Celtics and Pistons showing their age

If anyone wagered on Boston to win the Eastern Finals, chances are the feeling is becoming increasing more comfortable, given the fact Boston is 29-0 all-time in the playoffs when leading 3-2 in a series. While bettors under 30 years old will scream, they don’t care about Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Bill Russell or Red Auerbach, the guys that built this streak, facts are facts and have yet to see anyone in the last three decades or so that has an A.D. after their name that wasn’t associated with a job.

In watching this series, you can’t help but notice the window of opportunity is probably closing for both teams after this season, if they don’t produce a NBA championship. General Manager Danny Ainge was looking very much like a man needing a new job after falling to fifth in the NBA draft, from top spot last season, being more immediately crestfallen than a 16-year old being told they could not take the family car by them selves after receiving drivers’ license the same day. After dusting himself off, Ainge and coach Doc Rivers, put together a plan which saw them acquire Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, to go along with Paul Pierce and quicker than a cheesy magician can yell “Presto!” Boston was rebuilt. They went on to have the best regular season record in the league at 66-16, with 54-28 ATS record.

A review of the Big Three shows Garnett and Allen at 32 years old and Pierce coming in at 30. The grind of the postseason is tough on any player, but each of these players has shown the affects of a long season in the playoffs, far more often than one might expect and each will have a short turnaround leading to next season. This places additional urgency on each player, since they understand why they were brought together in the first place. The Big Three, along with Kendrick Perkins enabled the C’s to win Game Five. The three elder statesmen were 7 for 10 beyond the arc and Boston was 8 for 15 overall, leading Boston backers to really like the Celtics, who are 12-2 ATS after a game where they made 50 percent of their three-point shots or better this season.

In spite of a noble fourth quarter comeback, Detroit has not played with the passion associated with championship teams. A perusal of the Pistons roster shows Rasheed Wallace and Antono McDyess will both be 34 before the start of next season, Chauncey Billups will be 32 and Richard Hamilton is 30 years old. The youngest core player is Tayshaun Prince at 28. That is not to say Detroit or Boston is going to age years overnight, yet when players of this basketball life span have a hard time getting up for playoff games, what will the regular season for next year bring as far as emotions?

The Pistons return to The Palace, 14-5 ATS off a road loss this season, also knowing Boston is 0-7 ATS on the road when leading in a playoff series the last six weeks. All the key members of the Detroit roster disappeared for significant lengths of time in last outing, if this happens again, they’ll be leaving the locker room as well, headed for unwanted summer vacation.

Detroit 5.5-point home favorite at most reporting wagering outlets with Total having risen to 175. The Pistons have covered 14 of last 19 home games and will face a Boston outfit that is 2-8 against the spread in last 10. The Celtics have managed to crank up the effort after teams have broke the century mark against them, with 40-13 ATS record.

In Game Six on ESPN, Detroit tries to continue the dream, while Boston pushes to advance. The tip will be after 8:35 Eastern, with the road team up to 10-3 ATS when these two veteran teams collide.

Lakers Finish off San Antonio

Even though the Los Angeles Lakers won’t be singing Willie Nelson’s, “Turn out the lights the party’s over” song, they will be trying to turn out the dim hopes of San Antonio Spurs for this season. Much like somebody trying to get a drink after last call, the Spurs Brent Barry’s last ditch effort, came up empty. It’s back to La-La Land, where the stars will be brighter than ever, looking to bask in the glow of the Lakers advancing to the NBA Finals.

It was unbelievable to watch Brent Barry get fouled on the game’s last play, (he did) and San Antonio not make a huge stink about it. The Spurs players were maybe too stunned to react and coach Greg Popovich’s infamous stare would zero impact. The fact remains, San Antonio had no business stealing that game, since they did little over the course of 48 minutes to do so.

After a brilliant Game 3, Manu Ginobili played like he just saw the premiere episode of Denise Richards reality TV-show, “It’s Complicated”. The Lakers defenders did a significantly better job of making the Argentinean go to his right and he was held to just seven points, which affected his defense also.

Though constantly double-teamed from different angles, Duncan scored 29 and grabbed 17 boards, yet he’ll be haunted by missing more one-foot shots (7) than a 10-year old at basketball camp. This situation does not set up well for San Antonio, with 24-25 record this season on the road, with only 18 covers.

What has changed from last year to this season for the Spurs to be in this predicament? Start with being one year older across the board. San Antonio knew they could beat weak-minded Phoenix, owned more experience than New Orleans, but the Lakers are different. They are long to clog up the middle; they have fresher and younger legs and have the only coach that can truly match wits with Popovich in Phil Jackson. The last point might be the most important, as teams or players age, they lack the ability to take it to the rim and finish. San Antonio’s best three players in the paint are Duncan, Ginobili and Tony Parker, the latter two being guards. The rest of the roster is essentially jump-shooters, leaving the team at the mercy of how they shoot. When L.A. has clogged the paint to stop everyone but Mr. Fundamental, they’ve won.

The Lakers are 7-0 (5-2 ATS) at the Staples Center in the postseason and are the last team still playing not to lose on the home hardwood. Los Angeles is up to 10-2-1 ATS after a straight up win and coach Jackson has again adroitly used his roster to the team’s advantage. He knows his club has a speed and quickness edge in this series. Jackson makes great adjustments, but more importantly, he knows almost immediately what he will receive from his bench players. Vlade Radmanovic has played exceptional at times; Sasha Vujacic has played extended minutes when he shoots well and Jordan Farmar has been defensive dynamo in short spurts. Though his minutes will vary greatly depending on opposition, Luke Walton was a big contributor off the pine in Game 4.

The Lakers opened as 7.5-point favorites at most wagering outlets and were quickly bet up to eight, with bettors smelling the blood in the water. It would be foolish beyond comprehension to believe San Antonio will just show up and play like the Memphis Grizzlies. This team and whole organization is too proud and has the heart of a champion and is 14-5 against the spread in Conference Finals for a reason. They will have to be contrarian to what they have been all season, with 2-10 ATS mark in road games after playing two consecutive home games this season.

All four games in this series have gone Under to total and linemakers have established Game 5 at 193.5. Los Angeles is 8-2 UNDER after a win and San Antonio has played UNDER in last six games with a day’s rest.

My intial thought was L.A. motors past the Spurs. Don't like the trend that shows the Lakers are 9-23 ATS in home games off a road win by three points or less, with winning margin 3.6 points. Plus the aforementioned San Antonio pride. Lakers on the money line makes the most sense.

Thursday May 29, Three Daily Winners Wagering Info

Had rare losing day at 3Daily Winners and we’ll try to get on track immediately. The System play needed a total Royals ninth inning meltdown to falter, we’ll bring in an unreal situation that has a 94.1 percent record. The Trend play is in the NBA this evening, while I’ll try to stay en fuego with the balls and bats. Good Luck.

System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Colorado with a money line of +125 to +175, a below average NL hitting team (.255 or less BA) against a team with a good bullpen like the Cubs (3.75 or less ERA), with a starting pitcher like Jeff Francis (1-5, 6.19) whose ERA is 5.70 or worse on the season (NL). This fascinating system is 16-1 since 2004.

Trend – 2) The Lakers are 10-2-1 ATS after a straight up victory.

FREE Selection -3) Thanks to Frank, for providing us and you readers with a number of NBA Winners. I’ll take a stab at the MLB board, thanks to a few quality days, as seen at FSM and back the White Sox.

Hump Day May 28, Three Daily Winners Betting Info

Frank from the Left Coast Connection can’t be stopped in the NBA Playoffs, providing 3Daily Winners FOUR FREE WINNERS in a row. He has another going tonight, with Detroit and Boston contest. The System plays are nearly as good, with 14-2 amazing run. Another outstanding system is loaded for today. Good luck.

System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Minnesota with a money line of +125 to +175, after a win by two runs or less against opponent after scoring four runs or less five straight games. Take Kansas City with Zack Greinke to end the Royals nine game slide, with system that is 14-3, 82.3 percent the last three seasons.

Trend – 2) The D-Backs are 22-4against the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite over the last two seasons.

FREE Selection -3) Frank from the Left Coast Connection has hit seven straight NBA plays, including four in a row right here. Though he doesn’t like the side, he’s taking the UNDER in the first half, with a system he believes in, that has hit 93.7 percent in this situation. Hard to doubt him with as hot as he is.

Baseball Bettor’s Silent Killer

Have you noticed what’s been going on in major league baseball this season? Nobody knows if it will last or if it will just end up being one of those years, but whatever it is, either the “sharp” bettor is going down hard or the so-called “square” is enjoying great success. What are we talking about, the baseball road kill epidemic.

A look at the May 27 standings has road teams winning just a notch over 43 percent of the time, a very low figure. As of today, only five teams in the big leagues have a winning record.

Florida 12-8
L.A. Angels 16-11
Chicago W.S. 15-13
Philadelphia 15-13
St. Louis 13-12

That’s it, only a handful of teams have shown the capacity to win on the road, with just four others managing a small profit for bettors. In all, road teams have lost -80.8 units and if you add up the all the teams with losing road marks, they are -116.1 units.

Typically, smart bettors prefer underdogs, because of the value of the money line, making actual wins and losses less important. Long time handicapper Tony Stoffo has often been published about winning large sums of money betting baseball, despite a losing record. Seeing a high percentage of road teams are underdogs, to date this has been a costly way to wager on baseball.

Baseball road chase systems have taken a beating also, as the frequency of road teams being swept has been inordinately high. In all, 43 times visitors have been swept in a series with a minimum of three games, 23 in the American League and 20 in the National League. How important are these number to baseball bettors?
In the last three seasons, here is the winning percentage of home teams during the regular season.

2007 – 54.2 percent
2006 – 54.6 percent
2005 - 53.7 percent

If you extrapolate the current winning percent of 56.9 against the three-year average of 54.2 percent, this would be 75 more wins for the home teams over the course of an 81-game home schedule, a minimum +75 units of profit, a huge figure.
What has happened to have road teams perform so poorly? Major League baseball has seen a NFL-like change in the records of teams that made the playoffs from last season. The World Series champion Red Sox, are a downtrodden 11-17, dropping 7.7 units. San Diego has been dreadful all season, more so on the road at 8-19, -11.0 units. Colorado, who’s late season rush took them to the World Series, 8-17, -7.7 units on the road. Plus, Cleveland at 8-13 and the Cubs at 10-13, have combined to lose -10.2 units.

In addition, Detroit was supposed to be strong contender in the American League and they are 9-16 on the road, while the New York Mets, who won 47 games in the traveling grays in 2007, have started 11-16.

This is followed up with several hard to explain home/road dichotomies by major league teams.

Boston with their poor road record, is a baseball best 21-5 at Fenway Park. Atlanta may be 6-16 on the road, but is impressive 21-7 at Turner Field. Last season’s playoff combatants Arizona and the Cubs are below .500 on the road, nonetheless, love the home cookin’ with 19-8 and 20-8 records in respective home ballparks. Baltimore is 10-18 on the road, yet is .500 for the season, thanks to 15-7 mark at home. Even Tampa Bay has joined in, with incredible 20-8 (+11.5 units) record at Tropicana Field, including 14-4 versus AL East opponents, leading to being in first place in their division.

Don’t think for a second oddsmakers haven’t noticed. Your typical money line home favorite of the past, fit into -120 to -125 home favorite spot. With what has occurred thus far, -130 to -135 is a more fair number, before considering pitching matchups.

The bottom line to home teams winning this season is not unlike what happened to the New England Patriots in football last year. If you want to back baseball’s home teams, you are going to pay the price. This does add value to playing road teams, however if the bettor can not isolate which road teams will win, a loss is still a loss.

No question, this bares watching and following intently for serious baseball bettors.

Tuesday May 27, Three Daily Winners Betting Info

Frank from the Left Coast Connection is on a hot NBA run, having hit six in a row. He has another Free selection listed below. The System plays are now incredible 13-2 and have an American League contest that could be very solid. It took an extremely rare bad day by Brandon Webb to end a nice streak on the trend plays, which are still 6-3 of late. Good luck.

System -1) PLAY ON home favorites like the Angels with a money line of -110 or higher, averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game on the season, after scoring four runs or less five straight games. The premises is the home favorite is due to bust loose offensively and is 33-9, 78.5 percent the last three years, including 12-3 in 2008.

Trend – 2) The Red Sox despite poor road record thus far in 2008, just murder bad teams and are 22-4 facing clubs with losing records.

FREE Selection -3) Frank from the Left Coast Connection has been killing it in the NBA playoffs and will for seventh straight win and third in a row at 3Daily Winners by taking the Lakers and the points.

Memorial Day, Three Daily Winners Wagering Info

It took a foolish Cleveland extra inning error to possibly keep the System plays alive for another winner. Like all intelligent bettors, you understand what a 12-2 record over the last two weeks mean. The Trend plays are on 6-2 run and we’ll look for two in a row for Free picks today. Have a GREAT Memorial Day and Good luck.

System -1) PLAY ON All favorites like Tampa Bay, with a money line of -175 to -250, who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game on the season. This system is remarkable 50-5, 90.9 percent since the beginning of 2004.

Trend – 2) These are two top trends relating to same game. Arizona is 13-1 UNDER in road games after a win by six runs or more over the last three seasons and Atlanta is 13-1 UNDER after one or more consecutive Overs this year.

FREE Selection -3) Frank from the LCC has been smokin’ in the NBA Playoffs. Yesterday he had San Antonio for his sixth straight easy winner and believes Detroit Pistons will be the same tonight.

Sunday May 25, Three Daily Winners

Would have had a perfect day at 3DailyWinners yesterday, except for Kerry Wood of the Cubs blowing another save. The value of System plays is exhibited by almost perfect record with a 12-1 record. The Trend plays have hit five of last seven, making them valuable as well. Good luck.

System -1) PLAY ON home favorites like Cleveland with a money line of -175 to -250, with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL), after allowing two runs or less. Over the last five years, this system is a piping hot 56-9, 86.2 percent.
Trend – 2) Seattle is 0-11 against the money line after two or more consecutive Overs this season.
FREE Selection -3) Frank from the LCC, has hit the correct side in NBA Playoffs five times in a row and has San Antonio in a big play.

Saturday May 24, Three Daily Winners

System plays are now up to 11-1 winning day’s record after yesterday. Today’s selection will take more intestinal fortitude, however hard to argue with results. The Mets bullpen prevented a winner on the Trend aspect, giving up run in the bottom of the ninth and losing in extra innings. Let’s see if another streak can be started. Good luck.

System -1) This may take a little courage considering the circumstances. PLAY ON home favorites like Cleveland with a money line of -175 to -250, stranding 6.9 or less runners on base per game on the season, in May games. This system is wallet stuffing 44-4, 91.7 percent the last five seasons.

Trend – 2) Atlanta is 9-0 against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.

FREE Selection -3) Nobody from the Left Coast Connection is burning it right now, thus I’ll give my favorite play of the day, which is on the Chicago Cubs.

For Boston, Character Check

Since Boston lost Game Four at Cleveland, to tie that series at 2-2, those wagering and writing about NBA basketball, started to wonder what the Celtics would do if they lost a home game in the playoffs. After a sixth straight defeat two games later and Boston dropping last outing, we will now look for the players have to be asking themselves. As of right now, over 70 percent of those betting are taking Detroit on the money line to win Game Three.

When asked about being down in a series for the first time, Ray Allen responded, “I’m excited about it,” offered Allen. “We just put ourselves in a position where we’ve put our backs up against the wall.” Those words may be true, but they ring more hallow then yelling at the top of your lungs in a deserted part of the Grand Canyon. Most sportsbooks have Boston as five-point underdogs, with total at 175 and those in the know are very weary of backing a club that has yet to cover six in a row in their green uniforms.

What was so apparent in Game two, were the same characteristics the Celtics had shown only on the road. When Detroit showed a more aggressive approach and was not going to bend, Boston cried “uncle” and did not rejoin like a team that won the most games during the regular season. What was especially disheartening, for a team that is 1-4 ATS after not covering, is the Big Three, Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce, all scored in the between 24-26 points and they still lost. That means the other eight players in the game scored 22 points in 124 minutes of combined action. Collectively they were 6-21 from the field. What the last game proved is six players, hustling with intensity, can beat three on the road.

Detroit comes home feeling shrived of opening contest and looking to improve on 39-8 and 30-17 ATS record at the Palace of Auburn Hills. The Pistons are San Antonio-light, without Tim Duncan. You may have more talent than them, but put Detroit in a corner, you better have soaked you face in saltwater, because they are going to dish out punishment. The Pistons will come in 5-1 ATS as playoff favorites.

What does Boston need to do to recapture series advantage, the following. Take the orange round sphere and take it as close as you can to the orange round cylinder that is 10 feet up from the ground. Kevin Garnett, despite scoring, is playing like he is trying to set the Guinness Book of Records for most seven-foot shots taken by a player seven feet tall. He and his teammates need to take it to rim, draw fouls and be more assertive. The Celtics were painfully slow in jumping out on pick and pops, leaving the Pistons with far too many looks. For those of us that wondered if Rajon Rondo was a capable enough point guard to lead his team to NBA championship, the answer is – it depends. When Rondo plays within his limitations, while still be productive, Boston is fine. When he starts making high risk-low reward plays on both sides of the court, he’s a negative. If Rondo plays like the latter, the Celtics fall 2-10 ATS as an underdog.

Detroit has to continue what they just did in last encounter. On offense, run motion offense, with Rip Hamilton a whirling dervish, coming off screens for great looks or in position to create easy hoops for teammates. Don’t rely on isolation plays; Boston is too good defensively, which will curtail offensive output. Let Boston have all the post-up plays they want, they have not shown the ability to take advantage of Pistons double teams and their pass have easily been defendable with simple rotations. At home, get into the Celtics psyche early, based on postseason road efforts, they are mentally vulnerable. Detroit hits the floor fresh with a day off, posting 30-12 ATS mark.

The most enthralling element of Game Three is heart. Does Boston overcome increasingly larger demons to play with desire and intelligence to regain control of the East Finals or does Detroit take step two and show killer instinct that makes other teams cower? The answer will play out on ABC starting at 8:30 Eastern.

Betting NHL Stanley Cup Finals

As frequently inept as the National Hockey League has been run, the suits have to be busting their buttons having this matchup. Detroit and Pittsburgh proved to be the two best hockey teams, each playing in U.S. markets, with recognizable stars. To make this all the more compelling, each is playing at the top of their game, leading anyone to believe this could be a special Stanley Cup Final. For the third year in a row, the finalists did not meet during the regular season, further enhancing the drama, because of the unknown. With NBC in reruns, this will be the best television viewing on the Peacock Network starting Saturday night.

Detroit Red Wings

The Detroit Red Wings are trying for fourth Stanley Cup since 1997 and the have the weapons to complete the task. Detroit had the best record during the regular season, earning home ice advantage, making this among the reasons why they are a -165 favorite to drink from Lord Stanley’s Cup. For the most part, the Red Wings controlled the action in the Western Conference playoffs, registering 12-4 record, with a couple of wobbles against Nashville and Dallas.

Detroit is led by Nicklas Lidstrom, whose resume is heading towards being one of the best defensemen ever in the NHL. Offensive stalwarts like Henrik Zetterburg, Pavel Datsyuk and Tomas Holmstrom make the Red Wings difficult to contain in their own end. One key individual that has been and could be missing is Johan “The Mule” Franzen, who did not play against Dallas with concussion-like symptoms and has not been cleared yet by doctors to play. Detroit’s offense has sputtered for periods without him, as Franzen is still their leading scorer even missing a complete series.

Goalie Chris Osgood took over for a shaky Dominik Hasek in round one and has been airtight in posting 10-2 record. Osgood has benefited from superior defensive play in front of him, facing less than 22 shots a game in the postseason, but has been right when called upon.

Pittsburgh Penguins

The thought of the Pittsburgh franchise being dismantled, moved or whatever the NHL was thinking about, is nothing but a distant memory for a team that might be making several more visits to playing hockey in late May. This is the Penguins first trip back to the Finals since 1992, as they were about to complete back-to-back Cup wins with the great Mario Lemieux, who is now part of the team’s ownership group. Just like those Pittsburgh teams that were offensive-minded and had young stars like Lemieux and Jaromir Jagr, the current collection has two of the brightest stars in the game in Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.

These two have been the driving force, creating physical and mental pressure on defenses, with two scoring lines that are nearly equal, lending to Pittsburgh’s 12-2 postseason mark. To make matter worse for opponents, the third line led by Jordan Staal was virtually unstoppable against Philadelphia, as he scored four goals.

The weak links of the Penguins for several years has been the blue line and goaltending. The race of the cup has proved to be just the opposite. Netminder Marc-Andre Fleury has a 1.70 GAA and .938 save percentage after three rounds, the best in postseason. Defensemen Sergei Gonchar and Brooks Orpik will likely draw the assignment of containing Detroit’s big line and have met every challenge to date. Most of the other Pittsburgh defensemen are talented, yet inexperienced, especially playing on this stage. Fleury and the Pens defense have often been able to play with a lead.

Stanley Cup Prediction

The way to keep Pittsburgh from scoring is play keep away with the puck and Detroit is arguably the best in hockey in doing so. These young talented Pittsburgh skaters have flat out been more talented than the teams they have faced; this will not be the case in the Finals, facing a squad that also has a wealth of experience. Pittsburgh is 25-22 on the road this season and just 5-6 in last 11 in the visitor’s uniforms, taking on Detroit at “The Joe”, where the Red Wings are 36-13. When the series moves to Pittsburgh, the Pens are 34-15, with Detroit much better on the road at 30-19.

As mentioned, the Red Wings have misfired on offense occasionally, while Pittsburgh has shown they have a variety of options, meaning they can keep the pressure on. Though both have been exceptional, the Penguins have played with more of an edge throughout the NHL playoffs, showing more skill in precision in both ends of the rink.

Commissioner Gary Bettman’s alteration of the league is complete, with these two teams making the Stanley Cup Finals. What you will see is teams relying on speed, skill and intelligence, rather than brute force or intimidation, which is how hockey was meant to be played. Having posted a 12-2 record is series predictions, believe the Penguins have a little more of the aforementioned and win a classic series.

Pick- Pittsburgh +135 in six

Note- For Conn Smythe Winner (MVP), consider Malkin at 3-1 or Fleury at 6-1.

Friday May 23, Three Daily Winners

How good are the 3Daily Winners system plays, they have won 10 of last 11 days. The Trend plays have been burning them up as well, with four winners in the last five days. Our friends at the LCC have not been great of late, thus one of the 3DW partners, Paul Buck has his chance to shine. Good luck.

System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like San Antonio off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two teams that have won 60 to 75 percent of their games on the season. This scintillating system is 16-2, 88.8 percent the last five years.

Trend – 2) The Metropolitans of New York are 14-2 against the money line in road games when playing on Friday over the last two seasons.

FREE Selection -3) Paul Buck of 3Daily Winners is giving out the Detroit Tigers as his Free play.

Hot Hitting Teams a Harmful Wager

When a major league baseball team is hitting the ball and scoring runs, they look and act lively. When this same team goes into a slump, striking out and beating the ball into the ground for routine outs, they are more boring to watch than an episode of Fox’s “Back to You”. When a team can’t hit, they are often lifeless and just pain dull. However, when a lineup is sending missiles all over the diamond, it’s entertaining stuff, BUT are they a good wager?

In 2008, home runs are down; scoring is off previous years, as many teams have better bullpens, with managers smarter in how to use them. That doesn’t mean over the course of a 162-game season; nine guys in the batting order won’t rip the cover off the ball for periods of time.

In this study, hot hitting was determined as three games with 10 or more hits in a trio of outings. This could relate to a series when the lumber was en fuego or just a short period when most everybody was seeing the ball well. What we wanted to know was how a team performed in the fourth game from a wagering perspective. Were they a good wager at home or on the road when hitting the ball well? How did these teams do when in the role of favorite or underdog in the next contest, plus a few other secondary numbers, with intriguing results.

One aspect that jumped out, had nothing to do with wagering, it had to do with specific team. The Cleveland Indians have a reputation as free swinging, hard-hitting team, not only have they not make a contribution to this study, but they have not even had consecutive outings of double digit hits this year, which is astounding. Even light-hitting San Diego has managed to have a set of games where they had two or three games in a row with 10 or more hits.

Teams favored after producing three contests of double digit base-knocks, have been below average at 11-13, losing 5.3 units of profit. It stands to reason, any team is going to have a difficult time just beating the ball, since they are bound to run into a number one starter from opposing team or just run out of good fortune.

The vast majority of teams that were favored played at home. Of the 19 measured contests, 16 wore the role of favorite, with mixed results. These clubs were only 9-10 and dropped three units for those backing them. This record did come as a bit of a shock, considering these teams were at home and had the benefit of batting last.

Moving ahead to underdogs, this collective group has not performed well, with 6-14 mark, dropping 6.3 units. This result was not confounding from handicapping point of view, since when a team swinging the bats this well and is not favored, their has to be a reason. A bad pitching matchup, a team that struggles with a certain type of pitcher or opponent, or just playing on the road, are all factors in this number.

If a bettor is looking for an outstanding wager in 2008, try this one.

Play Against a road team off three games with 10 or more hits. These clubs are lamentable 8-21, -12.75 units.

What this has shown is teams can win for a short duration swinging the bats well on the road, but more often than not, pitching will be the most important element to stringing together road wins.
Interestingly enough, though the sample is small, all three teams that fit this criterion that were listed as a “pick” lost next outing.

Mentioned earlier, took a peak at two other areas that have proven to be profitable for baseball bettors. One was when a team was in the midst of a series, when striking the ball with authority. In this case, say a team had one or two games within a series totaling 10 hits or more, giving them three games in a row, as has been discussed. In the next contest against the same opponent, they are a mere 8-17, -10.95 units.

The last bit of winning wagering information has to do with teams that have extended hitting streaks, say four or more. While there is no way to determine when such a streak might end, when any major league teams falls back to single digit numbers, having put four or more consecutive games of 10+ hits, they are 6-11 -6.55 units. In this scenario, when a team is facing one of the top two pitchers from opposing club, this might be the right opportunity to bet against these teams slowing down and getting beat.

Utilizing the individual team pages at StatFox, can keep you right up to speed towards building baseball bankroll on a daily basis, Playing Against clubs that have swung the bats proficiently.

Thursday May 22, Three Daily Winners

The beat goes on for System plays, producing one winner after another. The Trends plays have not been far behind, showing a highly commendable profit. Good luck.

System -1) PLAY UNDER all teams against the total, when they are a bad offensive team like Cleveland (4.5 runs a game or less), against an average starting pitcher like Mark Buehrle (ERA=4.70 to 5.70) in the AL, after scoring four runs or less six straight games. This will be just the 14th time this system has arisen in the last five years and it has been on the nose 12 times, for a 92.3 winning percent.

Trend – 2) Detroit Pistons are 12-3 ATS after allowing 90 points or less three straight games this season.

FREE Selection -3) Sal was 1-1 in MLB yesterday and asked for another opportunity. We agreed and he’s on the Astros tonight.

Wednesday May 21, Three Daily Winners

The post-interleague May system plays were 8-4, bringing in +4.8 units, not too shabby for a couple days of FREE winning information. The Trends just keep piling up winners and have a perfect one to follow tonight. Off yesterday’s loss, Sal from the LCC has a pair of Free plays he has bet himself. Good luck.

System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Cleveland, with a money line of +125 to +175, since they are below average hitting team (.265 batting average or less) against a good starting pitcher like Javier Vazquez (4-3, 3.91). in the American League with ERA below 4.20, with their starting pitcher, Paul Byrd in this instance, who gives up one or more home runs a start (10 dingers – 8 starts). This amazing system is 37-3, 92.5 percent the last five years, including 3-0 to start 2008.

Trend - 2) Boston is 12-0 against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.

FREE Selection -3) Sal from the Left Coast Connection, has two MLB plays and opinion in NBA. His baseball plays are on the Braves and the Padres, while suggesting to take the Lakers with the points.

San Antonio vs L.A. Lakers Betting Preview

(3) San Antonio vs (1) L.A. Lakers Lakers -220 to win series

The two most success franchises in the last decade in the NBA will be reacquainted in the West Conference Finals. Starting with 2000, the Lakers ran off three straight NBA championships. San Antonio has been an odd champion, like winning all four titles in odd number years (1999, 2003, 2005, and 2007). These once combative playoff rivals will renew what at the front end of this decade, was the best playoff series in professional basketball.

“We’ve had our battles. We’ve had some great matchups,” Lakers star Kobe Bryant said. “It feels great to be back at that level, matching up with San Antonio.” Los Angeles, to the surprise of many, was playing outstanding basketball earlier in the season, but were believed to have taken a step backward when developing center Andruw Bynum went down. The Lakers front office, never afraid to make the right deal, saw the window of opportunity was opening now and likely for the next few seasons and swung a deal for Pau Gasol, which led to them earning the top seed in the West.

Los Angeles has been the most impressive team of the four remaining conference finalists, having played just 10 games in the postseason and are 7-2-1 against the spread. Having played last Friday, the Lakers are rested, with 8-1 ATS in home games when playing only their second game in seven days this season.

San Antonio showed their championship mettle at New Orleans in crucial game seven, winning 91-82 as four-point road underdogs, in a contest they frequently led by double digits. The Spurs got Tim Duncan started early and reigned three’s on the Hornets to secure victory. Because their plane had mechanical problems and a large convention in New Orleans, the Spurs were delayed in leaving for Los Angeles and didn’t have a practice on Tuesday. “We didn’t think practice was going to glean a whole lot of improvement, considering everything,” coach Greg Popovich said.

This means the Spurs are opening on the road again, where winning has not come as easy as in the past. San Antonio is 24-23, with paltry 17-30 ATS record including 2-4 SU and ATS in the playoffs. It would be reckless journalism to not point out the two most important games the Spurs have played as visitors in the postseason (Game 3 at Phoenix, Game 7 at New Orleans) were both wins. The Spurs Big Three will of course look to carry San Antonio. Tim Duncan will try to work Gasol over, with physical play. The real key for the Spurs is Tony Parker. He should have no problem breaking down Derek Fisher off the dribble and be able to get to the basket. The Lakers have plenty of tall timber in the paint, yet Parker has made his living scoring in the lane or will be able to dish the ball to open shooters. San Antonio is +180 underdog to win the series.

What made the Lakers this season was balance. Kobe Bryant had his lowest number of shots per points scored, which earned him his first MVP. Though Bynum had a more physical post presence, Gasol has a more varied game, with jump hooks and mid-range jump shots, to take defenders away from the lane. What the Lakers need Fisher to do is make jump shots, to offset what he’ll likely surrender on defense to Parker. Lamar Odom has to mentally involved from the opening tap of Game One, he is the wild card that could give Phil Jackson’s team a decided edge with his scoring ability, along with length and power. The Lakers fantastic four is draining 52.2 percent of shots in the postseason.

On last element to watch is the bench play. For the most part each team is dependent on its three-point shooters coming off the pine. A couple of games could swing one way of the other depending on which club has hotter shooters off the bench.

These teams split four games this season, each winning and covering at home, with margin of victory a decisive 13.3 PPG. Look for the Lakers to be able to match San Antonio in critical junctures where New Orleans could not with experience.

Doug's Take – Lakers -220 in seven

Tuesday May 20, Three Daily Winners

The System play was 5-2 yesterday, bringing in +3.6 units to those who played each game. One of our pals from the Left Coast Connection had another winner and is confident he will do so again. Good luck.

System -1) PLAY AGAINST road teams after three consecutive games versus an interleague opponent, in May games. This is the completion of this system this is 39-8, 83 percent since the beginning of 2005 season. Look to play against, Seattle, Baltimore, L.A. Angels, N.Y. Mets (Game 1) and Arizona.

Trend - 2) Dustin McGowan and the Toronto Blue Jays are 12-0 UNDER when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last two seasons.

FREE Selection -3) Our baseball bettor from the Left Coast Connection is on a hot streak, going for a third straight winner at 3Daily Winners. Over the last five days he is +15.6 units and is riding the Blue Jays as his top selection.

Celtics versus Pistons Betting Preview

(2) Detroit vs (1) Boston Celtics -155 to win series

Everybody raise your hand if you are surprised Detroit and Boston are in the Eastern Conference Finals. This was about as likely as the CSI crime team solving the murder before the top of the hour. Of course, that is not to say how each team got to this point didn’t have a few twists and turns, just like the CBS hit series. The Pistons lost first game of the entire playoffs at home to Philadelphia and actually had to win a game four on the road to square up series with the Sixers. Boston is chasing history, trying to become the first team ever to win only home games and no road games on the way to title, solidifying the argument for having the best record in the league.

Fans of up and down, high-flying basketball, might want to mix in a WNBA game during the East Finals, because the last thing that will happen is a high scoring confrontation when these two get together. These teams have played three games this season, with Boston winning two and the losing team never made it 86 points and these were regular season games. Both teams prefer knock-'em-down, drag-'em-out battles, which is what we will see. Oddsmakers are aware these two have played UNDER ten of last 12 encounters.

Boston is 43-6 and 30-18-1 ATS at TD Banknorth Garden, with eight postseason wins and five covers, though none in the last three victories. Taking away the opening two blowouts against Atlanta and the Celtics are unsavory 3-9 ATS in last dozen. Boston could have used the rest Detroit had in polishing off Orlando much sooner. You can’t help but wonder where the scoring is going to come from for Boston. Ray Allen looks all used up. No legs for jump shots, confidence missing in his eyes and facing another defensive-minded club. Rajon Rondo needs to be a great defensive player along with a scoring threat every game, in some manner. Yes, he has limited skill as a jump shooter, but he has to be disruptor, making steals, getting transition baskets for easy points. Two factors are imperative for Celtics to win series. Boston is 23-8 ATS in games where they attempt 77 to 83 shots this season, meaning they must play to their tempo. Secondly, they have to continue to rule at home and be aggressive. They are 12-3 ATS in home games when they attempt 23 to 28 free throws in a game this season.

Detroit will have healthy Chauncey Billups, which creates greater offensive efficiency. The Pistons, being in sixth consecutive Conference Final, must win the matchups. Billups must govern Rondo, meaning playing time for Sam Cassell, who looks ready to retire playing at this intensity level. Rip Hamilton has been a pleasure to watch with Billups out and should drive Allen crazy on both ends the floor, having him expend a great deal of energy. If the Pistons can rule the backcourt, Rasheed Wallace and Tayshaun Prince just have to play Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce even. Pierce will be stoked with confidence after performance he gave in Cavs finale. Prince’s long arms and often suffocating defense will have to affect Pierce. Otherwise, Pierce will have the chance to get Prince in foul trouble gaining a significant edge.

The other element in the series will be bench play. Doc Rivers has often looked down the bench in the playoffs, yearning for somebody, anybody to help, especially on the postseason road. Boston will need the unlikely scorer off the bench in at least two different games to win, just like P.J. Brown in game seven against Cleveland. The same goes for the Pistons, whether it is Jason Maxiell in the paint or Jarvis Hayes or Rodney Stuckey dropping jump shots, someone will have to come thru.

Detroit has enjoyed great success against teams who attempt 18 or more three point shots a game like the Celtics with 30-12 ATS record. For the Pistons, it becomes overcoming the stigma of not covering 11 of last 12 Conference Finals games and making the NBA Finals twice in five tries.

Both times Detroit won the Conference Finals; they did so without the home court advantage (2004 and 2005). Overall, the Pistons have looked like the better team and with 28 road wins in 46 games, are capable of knocking off Boston on the road.

Doug's Best Bet – Detroit +125 in six

Racing Thoughts and Betting Numbers Update

Though not always the positive individual was flabbergasted to read the horse, Big Brown is being slighted for supposedly running against mediocre competition. The horse has run two spectacular races, is primed to be the first Triple Crown champion in 30 years and the fourth in the last 60 years and some morons still aren’t happy. Of course these are the same idiots who said Tiger Woods really isn’t that good because he’s never had a true competitor to challenge him. Is it the horse’s fault nobody has run with him? Some complain about ordinary speed ratings. How’s his speed been coming around the corner and down the stretch? Secretariat is the greatest racehorse I’ve ever seen and Seattle Slew, and Affirmed were something special. I hope Big Brown joins them.

Haven’t talked much about personal wagering of late, thought I’d update. In baseball, record is at 62-52, 54.4 percent on the season, good for +9.59 units. Like everybody, have had a few rough spots and a few hot streaks. As a whole satisfied with season to date record. The baseball line accuracy method I use has really helped me become far more proficient in the last few years and results like this bare it out. Still 100 percent convinced, betting sports is about finding winners, not playing favorites or underdogs. Find the right edge; improve your chances of winning.

After a crummy NBA regular season (48.5 percent), thought I was primed for NBA Playoffs. To this point, a little disappointed at 12-9-1 (57.1 percent), as so many favorites have won and covered in the second round. Still have the conference finals and league finals, thus a great deal of time to improve.

Monday May 19, Three Daily Winners

The System play lost for the first time in a week yesterday; nonetheless, the Trend and the Free selection were easy winners. Really interesting System play that comes around for just a day or two. Good luck.

System -1) PLAY AGAINST all road teams after three consecutive games versus an interleague opponent, in May games. The theory here is road teams have not quickly gotten back focus heading back to division or league play and are vulnerable. In the last four years, these teams are 6-34, 15 percent winners. Consider playing against Royals, Giants, Reds, Rangers, Rays and Cardinals, with a few more tomorrow.

Trend - 2) The New Orleans Hornets are 11-0 ATS in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season.

FREE Selection -3) Yesterday’s winner was an easy one on the Halos (10-2) and our volume baseball bettor from LCC is now up to + 12.2 units the last four days. His best play on the board tonight is the Cardinals.

Sunday May 18, Three Daily Winners

Had computer issues today which prevented me from posting 3Daily Winners. I'm sorry it didn't work, however everything is working properly again. Here is what was going to be posted earlier.

Was lucky Adam Dunn hit a walk-off three run homer for Cincinnati, to take System streak to 6-0 this week, let’s see if we can make 7 for 7 today. Good luck.

System -1) Play Against all underdogs like Toronto when the money line is +100 or higher, that have been weak offensive teams (4.2 runs or less runs a game) against a team with a very good bullpen like Philadelphia’s (ERA of 3.33 or less), with a starting pitcher like Shaun Marcum who gives up 5.5 or less hits a start. Marcum has been awesome with 4-2 record and 2.22 ERA, but with his team’s inability to score, the Jays are vulnerable. This system is 32-6, 84.2 percent the last five seasons, including 2-0 in 2008.

Trend - 2) The Arizona Diamondbacks are 21-4 against the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite over the last two seasons.

FREE Selection -3) Move to a new member of the Left Coast Connection, who plays a large volume of MLB games daily and is + 8.6 units the last three days. His favorite play on the board is to take the Angels to win the I-5 series.

Saturday May 17, Three Daily Winners

It has been a solid week thus far, the System plays are 5-0, the Trend plays have won the last four days and the Free plays are 5-4. Good luck today.

System -1) Play Against teams like Cleveland that are having trouble scoring runs (4.5 or less runs a game), against a good NL starting pitcher like Aaron Harang (ERA of less than 3.70), when, in this case, the Indians are batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games. This system is a powerful 35-5 the last 11 seasons.

Trend - 2) The Detroit Red Wings are 27-4 ATS at Joe Louis Arena after covering three of their last four against the spread over the last two seasons.

FREE Selection -3) After a nice 2-1 day, our LCC free play in on the Atlanta Braves with Tim Hudson listed pitcher.

Lakers Can't Win Game 6

A great deal has been made and rightfully so about how dominate home teams have been in the conference semifinal round of the NBA Playoffs, with record now at 20-1 and 14-5-2 against the spread. This home team dominance could end at any time and likely will, since nothing historically suggests it will continue. Yet what factors have led to such an occurrence. Understanding this provides the answer in Utah tonight.

The single biggest explanation and one that is rather simplistic is the shots that fall at home, are not being made on the road. Why is this? Start with the mindset of each player in home/road dichotomy. At home, the team and thus the player is more comfortable in familiar surroundings, the crowd cheering invigorates player on both sides of the floor. He’s play with more passion, more energy and more importantly, is more relaxed. He gives the extra effort on defense fighting through screens, takes the ball to the basket with more abandon to dunk or be fouled.
A legitimate question would be how is this different than the regular season? The answer is as simple as looking at the date on the calendar, it’s the playoffs. The stakes are higher, reputations of today’s players are on the line and the pressure is immense.

This leads to the deeper aspect of why road teams can’t win, mental toughness. This entire generation of players grew up being coddled since they were in grade school. They were always told how great they were and most negative elements were removed from their lives, setting them up for success. What was left out was how to deal with adversity, real adversity like ordinary people face everyday. Why coaches preach defense is no matter how good a player is offensively, some nights the shots just won’t fall. But defense, well this is getting into stance each time down the floor fighting to not let your man score.

Playing close attention, watch how many times, a visiting player have missed two or three shots in a row and it is his man that scores the basket. The difference is not only on the offensive side, it’s on the defensive end as well, lending to twofold problem. This in turn leads to explanation of why so many of these games have been double digit wins for the home team. Just like many of the Super Bowls in the 1980’s and 90’s, that were blowouts. When two highly trained and talented teams are running at peak efficiency, once one lets down, the other will race right by its opponent, leading to lop-sided scores. This is precisely what has happened in this round of the playoffs. The home team is completely dialed in, the visitor; being defended more arduously, becomes frustrated when shot attempts fail, carries that baggage to the other side of the floor and gives up a basket or stupid foul still thinking about missing previous shot.

This four point swing doesn’t have to happen very often in the course of a game either to make any contest a blowout. A mere five trips in the home teams favor, makes an 18-20 win, especially in the fourth quarter.

While teams like San Antonio cause outrage with dirty tactics and call for full understanding of the rules, no denying they play to win. Why have we seen a drop in teams from this country in international play, despite having the best players in the world? Why do we continue to lose to less gifted teams? Today’s players are mentally softer and don’t adjust well to challenges that regular people face in everyday life.

Today, as you look at Utah being bet up from a two-point home favorite to four at most wagering outlets, it’s comfortable to know that the Jazz are 11-2 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less this season or the Lakers are 15-26 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games. But what is really important to understand is back at EnergySolutions Arena, Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer will do everything possible to send this to a Game 7.

That is not to say the Lakers can’t win, however if they did it would be the first time either team showed it had what it took to step up and show stout-heartedness and grit.

Friday May 16, Three Daily Winners

Nearly a sweep yesterday, as the Giants bullpen fell apart to cause one loss. The Systems plays are cleaning up, 4-0 this week.

System -1) Play UNDER on home teams like Cleveland where the first half total is between 85.5 and 90.5 points (presently 90) after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This system is 27-6, 81.8 percent the last 12 years, including 11-1 the last five seasons.

Trend - 2) The Chicago White Sox are 18-2 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher like the Giants Jonathan Sanchez, whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 since interleague play began.

FREE Selection -3) A new member from the LCC, has three plays in interleague baseball he likes equally as well and will share them. Tonight he’s playing Baltimore, Seattle and Arizona. He is on 10-4 run in baseball bets this week.

Thursday May 15, Three Daily Winners

The System won for a third straight day and the Free Selections were 2-0, with added bonus picked missed. Let’s move to today.

System -1) Play Against all underdogs like the Yankees with a money line of +100 or higher, with a mediocre AL offensive scoring 4.2 runs or less a game, against a team with a very good bullpen like Tampa Bay (3.13 ERA), with a starting pitcher like Scott Kazmir, who gives up 5.5 or less hits a start. This system has hit 22 of 26, 84.6 percent since 2004.

Trend - 2) With the Braves 24th in stolen bases, Cole Hamels is 17-3 vs. poor base-running teams, averaging a stolen base or less every other game over the last two seasons. (Phillies Record)

FREE Selection -3) Our betting expert from the Left Coast Connection, gave us two MLB winners and will stick with him today, as he plays the Giants in afternoon action.

Wednesday May 14, Three Daily Winners

The System and the Trend were both winners yesterday, let's move ahead.

System -1) When the Total is 10 or higher, with an average hitting team like Colorado (AVG = .255 to .269), facing an average starting pitcher like Micha Owings (ERA=4.20 to 5.20-NL) in May, Play the UNDER. This impeccable system is 18-2 the last five seasons, including a pair of winners in 2008.

Trend - 2) Atlanta is 2-12 against the money line in road games after one or more consecutive Unders this season.

FREE Selection -3) As will be the custom, once a person losses they are out and we’ll pick up the next hottest bettor, from this syndicate. Today sharp bettor has had four winning days in a row and has two big plays, the Blue Jays and the Astros. In addition, he’s calling for Red Wings to close out Dallas in NHL action.

Boston Celtics Will Not Win NBA Title

I admit it; I picked the Boston Celtics to win the NBA Championship before the playoffs began. Consider me one of those Democrats whose like a super-delegate, I have the right to throw my support towards whoever I want. I was fooled by the regular season record, believing Boston ACTUALLY had a bench. I was naive enough to think Doc Rivers was a better than average coach and didn't follow one of the fundamentals of professional basketball; the NBA Playoffs are completely different than the regular season.

As bad as all those elements are, I was bamboozled into believing the Celtics "Big Three" had suddenly become clutch players. Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce are all great individual talents; they just have never won anything that matters. LeBron James has been to more NBA Finals then the three of them combined (1). I refuse to listen to the garbage talk they played on bad teams; since in King James almost four seasons, he has not had many players on the Cavs roster that will be familiar to anyone who wasn't a Cleveland fan come 2014.

For all their talent, the word "clutch" is never associated with their names in late game behavior. In the unexpected seven game series against Atlanta, the less than terrific trio outscored the Hawks best three players, Josh Smith, Joe Johnson and Al Horford (that's right Mike Bibby is fourth at best) 388-337. That means this collection of veteran talent outscored the Atlanta upstarts by a grand total about 7.3 points per game. Hardly dominating for a 1 vs 8 matchup.

Fast forward to Cleveland series now tied as 2-2, after the Cavs clutch fourth quarter win in Game 4. This was going to be the series "Three vs One" remember? If you've been watching, King James has had his crown stolen by Boston defense. The James’ all of us have been familiar with has been stifled. But pay close attention, the combination of James, Wally "World" Szczerbiak and Zydrunas Ilguaskas has outscored the well-known Boston trio in each of the first four games, that's right, every one.

Game 1 47-32
Game 2 53-48
Game 3 49-41
Game 4 44-43

How absolutely ridiculous is that!

After accumulating a 31-10 and 28-13 ATS road record, Boston has lost five road games in a row, by an average of just over 10 points per game. That’s championship caliber?

At some juncture, some team will win at the new Garden and Doc Rivers will have to call upon this trembling collection of faint-hearted "stars" to win a clutch road game? It just might be in Game 5 Wednesday, when the Celtics don’t play well at home. In three previous series, when it was tied at 2-2, the aforementioned King James has averaged over 41 points per game, all Cleveland wins, with two on the road. Maybe it was Bugs Bunny who knew it best when he asked, "What's up Doc?"

Celtics NBA champs at 8-5 odds? I’d rather wager on the Dolphins Jason Taylor to win Dancing with the Stars.

Tuesday May 13, Three Daily Winners

The System and the Free Pick were both winners yesterday, let's move ahead.

System -1) Play On all teams like Cleveland when the money line is +125 to -125, can’t hit a lick, batting .225 or worse over their last 15 games, playing on Tuesday. Why Tuesday is important, is because this is frequently the beginning of a new series, giving a team a fresh start. This system is 20-2, 90.9 percent the last three seasons, gathering +18.6 units of profit.

Trend - 2) The New Orleans Hornets are 10-2-1 ATS after allowing 100 or more points in previous contest.

FREE Selection -3) Sticking with the hottest bettor in the Left Coast Connection, who has picked up +10.4 units the last eight days, and he’s taking the Chicago Cubs tonight.

Monday May 12, Three Daily Winners

Will give best effort to keep this feature up each and every day.

System -1) Play Against road teams like the Cardinals when the money line is +125 to -125 with a bad bullpen that blows 38 percent or more of their save opportunities against opponent with a starting pitcher like Milwaukee's Dave Bush (0-4, 6.98 ERA), whose ERA is 6.70 or worse on the season (NL). This system takes some courage with as bad as Bush has pitched; however the results speak for themselves with 21-4, 84 percent winning record, picking up +16.9 units.

Trend - 2) The Marlins are 13-4 against the money line vs. NL teams like the Reds allowing 4.8 or more runs a game this season.

FREE Selection -3) The hottest member of the Left Coast Connection is backing Cleveland -140 in Game 1 of two. This is an action play from a person who has picked up +8 units in MLB the last week.

Baseball Betting System

Mentioned a couple of weeks ago I’d explain a system I developed how to determine if the money line is accurate in baseball and determine if you as the bettor could take advantage of it.

In any type of wagering, it is important to know if a number is close or way off base. Any number of different power rating systems are available, however I created one that I use as ground work to help formulate opinion on a game. Note, I did not say the reason for a selection, but to have a fundamental principle. MLB is a grind and you need to understand what the numbers mean. After almost two weeks of the baseball season, the numbers start to develop in a manner that is useful to check the lines. Here are the criteria I developed to help make me a more consistent winner.

1) Teams winning percentage
2) Teams situational record home or away (percentage)
3) Teams Record over the last 7 games (percentage)
4) Teams Bullpen won/loss record (percentage)
5) Teams Save percentage
6) Starting pitchers current record + record vs. opponent since 2001 (percentage)

I start with the team’s record, which is important because that is how they have played on the season. Next is how a team plays either at home or away over the course of the year. The last seven games give an indication of how each team has been playing lately; paying particular attention to how many runs and hits they’ve accumulated during this stretch to formulate stronger opinion. With fewer and fewer starting pitchers going deep into games because of mangers nervous about the front office types and pitch counts, the bullpens importance has been enhanced tremendously. The bullpens win/lost record tells the story about their performance to hold or lose leads during the course of the games and save percentage tells me about how they finish off games. The starting pitchers current record shows his season-to-date performance and the historical number explains about a pitcher against particular teams.

Here is what a game match-up would look like with the corresponding numbers from above.

5-8-08 – Brewers at Marlins (Brewers-125)

Brewers Marlins

1) 484 575

2) 450 550

3) 142 571

4) 600 600

5) 632 667

6) 250 714

Total - 2558 3677

Early in the year, the numbers are somewhat less accurate given the number of games played. As this season moves forward, the numbers become tighter and more accurate. The Brewers have been slumping, winning just one in last seven outings, while the Marlins have been playing decent baseball. In theory, the matchup of Carlos Villanueva at 1-3, 5.56 ERA of Milwaukee, taking on Mark Hendrickson (5-1, 3.77 ERA) of the Fish (Hendrickson has loss to Milwaukee in 2006) appears to be a complete mismatch.

Now take the Totals and divide by the number of lines, in this case six.

3677 divided by 6 and 2558 divided by 6.

The Marlins new number becomes 612 and the Brewers at 431. Then subtract the higher number against the lower.

612 – 431 = 181

Use this number and divide by 2.

181 divided by 2 = 90.5

I’ll round the number down each time, in this case to 90. From here I check the official line, with most sportsbooks having the Brewers -125. Anytime I have a difference greater then 40, which I do in this case, this contest is now a potential play.

This example has the Brewers -125; with this system I have the Marlins at -190, difference of 115. (Florida won 7-2)

The entire process of your typical 15-game schedule takes me about 60-70 minutes if I can do it at a sitting. Otherwise, typically I do the math the night before, since I’m in West Coast time zone and have more final scores from the previous day.

It is important to be familiar with all the teams and know other factors in making a profit from wagering on baseball. As I said in the beginning, this method hones in on how accurate a money line actually is giving you a better opportunity to win.

Of course other unique situational factors occur like a new starting pitcher from the minors or trades changing dynamics of teams. If you choose to use this method, you will develop your own personal tastes in which you can have the same success as I’ve had in betting baseball over the years since developing this method.

Learning Baseball Better

If you are a real baseball fan and have an interest to learn while watching or wagering on baseball, you should be watching Monday night's on ESPN. Play-by-play announcer Dan Shulman is one of the best in the business. Always prepared, insightful and never afraid to interject a well thoughtout opinion. Joining him are Steve Phillips, former Mets GM and Orel Hershiser, a long time MLB pitcher, who also served as pitching coach for Texas and later worked in the front office for the Rangers.


Phillips is the key ingredient, with a different perspective than typical analysts. He not afraid to offer an opinion and will go after a player for not hustling or what he perceives as poor judgement by a manager. He will tackle issues concerning team's front office work, though occasionally will take on sorrow grapes persona from his previous work. Nevertheless, no shortage of keen insights on the various aspects of baseball.


Hershiser's expertise is pitching and is able to explain what he sees much like he pitched, with precision. Hershiser can go quiet in the booth and does much better with a strong play-by-play guy like Shulman. Additionally, with Phillips bringing up thought provoking topics, he engages Hershiser to share his thoughts, which are often excellent.


While a big fan of Jack Buck paired with almost anyone, I can't imagine anyone with a real interest in baseball not coming away with three-to-five really intriguing bits of information, they would not have learned if they had not watched.

Boston this big a Favorite? Maybe

Who would have thought the Boston Celtics would have been the team to hold up the proceeding, making this the last conference semi-final to commence in the NBA playoffs? The dynamics of a Cleveland and Celtics series are exhilarating, though for the most part flawed, as was shown in each team’s first round matchups. Boston’s a huge betting favorite to win the series, but should they be?

Most sportsbooks have Boston as -800 favorite or higher to win series over the Cavaliers, with five games the most popular exact bet at 3-2 odds. The Celtics needed seven games to dismiss of what appears to be up and coming Atlanta franchise, yet last we checked they are still the Hawks. For a team that was 31-10 on the road with 28-13 ATS record, they were awfully unsure of themselves. What has to be a real concern for coach Doc Rivers, off his first ever playoff series win, is his team was outscored 74-54 in three games in Atlanta in the four quarter, never once making it to 20 points in final stanza. It was Kevin Garnett passing up open shots, Paul Pierce losing poise and reportedly flashing L.A. gang signs, while Ray Allen will not be accused of being Robert Horry in clutch situations. The Celtics are 39-6 and 29-15-1 at TD Banknorth Garden, where they will be the first two games. The Pierce posse is 9-1 ATS after game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 35 percent or less this season.

Cleveland took one game longer to defeat Washington than expected, after LeBron James put an end to the Wizards nonsense in six. The Cavaliers are nowhere near as athletic as Atlanta, yet with James, could create a lot of difficulties for Boston. As Joe Johnson showed, the Celtics have matchup issues with swing players that can shoot or drive to the basket from different angles. James is a superior passer to Johnson, or anyone else the Hawks had, which creates opportunities for shooters like Delonte West, Daniel Gibson and Wally Szezerbiak. If these guys make shots, Cleveland becomes much more dangerous. On the year, Cleveland was only 12-18 as road underdogs, yet managed 17-13 ATS record. Coach Mike Brown’s team also does a good job competing, with 13-5 ATS record versus good shooting teams, making 46 percent or more of their shots this season.

LeBron’s will is probably worth a victory or two, especially as underdog and if his teammates follow his lead and Boston is cavalier in approach again, who knows. Boston is still the more talented team with more playmakers, nonetheless six or seven games can not be ruled out. These teams split four contests with Cleveland covering three. Can easily see the Cavs covering the majority of these East semi-final affairs, with the Under being strongest total play throughout the series.

Doug's take - Celtics in six

Betting first two Series of Round Two

The Conference semi-finals begin with a pair of high quality 2 vs 3 matchups, certain to bring a smile to every hoops fan and professional basketball bettor. While upsets are exciting, invariably in the NBA playoffs, it makes for a less than entertaining seven game series in the next round. Each series has one terrific individual head to head matchup which should be reason enough for any hoop head to want to watch.





(3) Orlando vs (2) Detroit Pistons -340 to win series

When these teams met in the playoffs last year, Detroit swept Orlando 4-0, with the Magic at least being competitive from wagering perspective with 1-1-2 ATS record. This season Orlando has make marked improvement, having the third best record in the Eastern Conference. A sure sign of the maturation of the Magic has been winning on the road, were only Boston and the Lakers has better records, with Orlando 27-14 SU and ATS during the regular season. What changed for Orlando was the continued evolution of Dwight Howard, who is inching ever closer to his All-Star Superman persona. He’s emerged as the league’s best center and has a fresh cockiness to his game, without be obnoxious. Hedu Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis have worked cohesively with Howard. If opposing team’s double down on Howard, one or both is open to drill jump shots, or if they start hot early, it opens up the middle for Howard to maneuver more freely. It is no coincidence the Magic 15-6-1 ATS as road dogs and will have a chance to steal Game One of the series.


Rasheed Wallace will be assigned the job of controlling the Orlando big man and he will use his array of tricks to do so. Wallace will kick, knee, push and hold Howard every chance he gets and that starts during the center jump. Wallace will carry a running dialogue to get in his head. From a skill standpoint, Wallace will hope the jump shot is working, forcing Howard out from under the basket, making room for Antonio McDyess, Tayshaun Prince and Richard Hamilton to work underneath. Detroit is 31-12 ATS versus teams like Orlando who make six or more 3-point shots a game on the season. The most evident advantage the Pistons have is in the backcourt, with Hamilton and Chauncey Billups. Orlando turns the ball over three more times per game on average than Detroit, which for practical purposes gives the Pistons four free points a game. Coach Flip Saunders has to encourage Billups to get the ball up the floor faster, as he’s started annoying habit of walking the ball up, wasting three or four seconds per possession.


If this was 2009, no hesitation in taking Orlando to win this series, but as the Pistons showed in last two Philadelphia games, when motivated, they can still play.



Doug's Take – Detroit -340 in six



(3) San Antonio vs (2) New Orleans Spurs -150 to win series


Tony Parker vs Chris Paul for at least four consecutive hook-ups, delicious. A number of experts didn’t even think these two would get together, for the same basic reason, just looking at it differently. Paul and New Orleans were greener than a plush spring lawn in playoff experience to take down fragile, yet battle tested Dallas. The Spurs having won four NBA titles were considered to be like Wilford Brumley (oatmeal guy), to ancient to stand to the charges of a retooled Phoenix squad. In the end, both had plenty of what they needed and handled opponents with ease.


It’s a benefit for the Hornets to have already play San Antonio four times this season (2-2 SU & ATS, because an unsuspecting opponent would have thought they’d been mugged and cheated). New Orleans will open at home as favorites, where they covered 21 of last 28 (75 percent). Chris Paul will still be able to penetrate, just not as often. How you beat San Antonio is with EXTREME patience. You have to be willing to continually settle for 15-18 foot jump shots and you have to make 42-48 percent of them every game. The Spurs will hang out the “Closed” sign most of the time in the lane and as the Suns saw again, they will jump out to defend the three-ball. Dribbling like Steve Nash does is open invitation to hacks and slaps on the wrist, which San Antonio just doesn’t get called for. David West and Tyson Chandler are going to need super-sized series, because the Spurs refuse to beat themselves.


The San Antonio Spurs are the New England Patriots. Loved and admired in the early years of gathering championships, now vilified everywhere but San Antonio metro. Why Greg Popovich will be in the Hall of Fame as a coach is his attention to detail. Since becoming the Spurs coach, he’s been without peer and has developed Bill Belichick dismissive persona to further harbor dislike. No matter one’s feelings, Pops has three stars and like a handyman’s toolbox, he has just the right tool to find sitting on the bench to defeat any opponent. Oddsmakers make it impossible to collect money on a consistent basis on the Black and Silver clad Spurs, thus all they do is win games, especially this time of year.


The Spurs are only 23-20 and 16-27 ATS on the road this season and will not have home court advantage. This often is the first true signal of decline. Just maybe the Hornets 33-11 and 28-16 ATS home record can surprise, especially knowing San Antonio is just 7-12 SU and against the spread as the visitor since Jan. 1 against teams that made the postseason.



Doug's Take – New Orleans +120 in seven

Sun Setting in Phoenix

Yesterday I explained why it was right to let Avery Johnson go, today I'll explain why current Phoenix Suns coach will resign. Let's start with the fact Mike D'Antoni firmly believes his offensive style of play can and does work. His belief of pushing the ball up and shooting within seven seconds (roughly) helped turn around a Phoenix franchise going nowhere. Where he and his team ran into problems was the playoffs. D'Antoni never seemed to grasp that his team couldn't will the opposition into playing faster and his team played too poor of defense, especially at critical junctures to win enough series.

Steve Kerr has a resume that included playing for championship teams in both Chicago and San Antonio. He was always a glib interview in his playing days and learned to make short direct comments on TNT as analyst. This hardly is cause to make him a GM of an already successful franchise, but he does have more rings than Luc Longley, so maybe that's enough. Of course having an already friendly relationship with owner Robert Sarver was, how do I say this, ahh, a bonus.

Right from the start friction ensued. Kerr, though a shooter with limited defensive skills believes he understood the value of defense and tried to "suggest" to D'Antoni more time needed to be placed on stronger defensive principles. Not surprisingly, D'Antoni embraced this like a head cold and went about his business. While mixed messages surfaced, the three Amigos (Sarver, Kerr, D'Antoni) seemed in agreement bringing Shaq on board was a great idea to enhance the Suns chances of winning NBA title. Of course this did not work, as the Big Cactus showmanship hustle was more for show than results. At 36, Shaq can still be effective, just not as an every game 30+ minutes starter. He was not the reason they lost to the Spurs, it was a collective effort.

Steve Nash is no longer a MVP player, he's probably the fourth best point guard in the West and will not become better at 34 years old. Amare Stoudemire actually flashed unseen defensive skills, but at the four spot, not as a center. Raja Bell is a nice complimentary player at 31 and was anyone really surprised Grant Hill broke down?

D'Antoni so firmly believes in his system, he takes on a Paul Westhead quality in believing offense can win, without enough defense. He also made mistakes against the Spurs, after Boris Diaw got his mojo on in what was a meaningless Game 4, he structured his offense to go thru Diaw in Game 5. Why?

Like Dallas, time has passed this team by. San Antonio had less talent, had to go even further further into bag of cheap tricks and through mental toughness survived to beat a mentally soft club.

Kerr has said he wants D'Antoni back, mostly because Sarver owes him 8.5 million for last two years. Kerr want him back IF D'Antoni will change and stress more defense and less offense. With this roster that seems impossible. Look for D'Antoni to resign with severance package, wholly committed to his beliefs in a new location. Kerr then can handpick his coach and seek more balance on both sides of the floor, meaning the Suns record plummets for the short term.

Avery Johnson disowned in Dallas

I saw where Gregg Doyel of CBSSportsline.com called Mark Cuban insane for firing Avery Johnson as the coach of his team. You can read it for yourself, but I support Cuban's decision whole-heartedly. Doyel states, "Johnson didn't go from coaching savant to idiot overnight." What? Johnson a coaching savant? If you took poll of NBA general managers and scouts that watch the various teams play, I guarantee Johnson would only make a handful of anyone top 10, with most listing him at number 10. Take the last three playoff series Dallas has lost.

Playoff basketball is about matchups and coaching adjustments on game by game basis. Three years ago, Dallas was the best team in basketball period. They were up 2-0 in Miami in the Finals and folded quicker than Phil Hellmuth with a three and seven hole card in off suits. The Mavericks completely lost their poise, (which included the coach) and lost to an inferior Miami team. Pat Riley made adjustments of which Johnson had no clue to counter.

Last season Dallas was the one seed and Golden State was eighth. I'll give anybody the Warriors were a bad matchup for Dallas based on the styles of the two teams. Still, you have to ask yourself, each team played 82 games to earn their postseason spot. Should a well-coached team with better talent, ever lose four games to an 8-seed? The answer is without a doubt NO. Johnson had no answers, this fragile mix of headcases that collapse at the first sign of adversity did not have the leadership on the floor or from the coach to defeat Don Nelson's tricky team.

This season, the Mavericks regressed, ending up the seventh seed in the difficult Western Conference and barely with a whimper were dismissed by New Orleans who had as much playoff experience a Clippers fan. Some will feel sorry for Johnson saddled with Jason Kidd whose career is over and just needs to be told. But the truth is he was never comfortable with Devin Harris, thus Cuban and the front office rolled snake-eyes.

A look at the Dallas roster shows a lot of players that will be 30-years old or more, meaning they are not likely to get better. Johnson's had three solid years to deliver a title to Big D and failed, for the most part, miserably. Myself, I'd hire a hard-ass coach the players would respect and take one more shot, adding a few missing ingredients. I'd make Josh Howard captain of the team (though that could go up in smoke) and move beyond Dirk, since he's has ample opportunity. Will this work, I doubt it, but you can't get rid of all the softies at once.

Attack the Phoenix situation tomorrow.

Weekend Observations

Went to California and Arizona State college baseball game this past Friday night. Both teams came in rated in the top seven in polls. The Sun Devils are noted this season for ability to hit and they did just that in piling up 11 runs. About eight MLB scouts by my count, were at the game to watch Bears RH Tyson Ross. Never was able to get a good angle to see how hard he actually threw, but was intrigued about how they scouted a prospect. Of course they checked his velocity early, they waited a couple of innings and checked again. When his pitch count was getting up in numbers, the scouts pulled the radar guns out again.

Ross reminded me of old Cardinals RH Jaquin Andujar. His body type was very loose. On this night he did not has his best stuff in allowing eight hits and five walks in just over five innings. What was most impressive, was his ability to change speeds with undetectable motion.

In the NBA, the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks are like a chocolate chip cookie right out of the oven. They look delicious, pass the taste, but after being exposed to the elements (in this case the NBA Playoffs), they crumble apart after a few days. As it turns out, these teams are poorly constructed for postseason basketball, have the heart of the Tin Man and are much like the cowardly lion (lacking courage for those not familiar) from the Wizard of Oz.

Both will be eliminated soon and the owners of each team will have to ask themselves is it time to start over, because each had a shot and failed to win a title when they could have.

I used to admire the San Antonio Spurs, the organization was and probably still is the best in the basketball. While still holding the organization in high regard, the Spurs players and coaching staff have turned into whiny babies. Every trip to the lane should result in a foul on the opposition. For the most part, San Antonio players NEVER commit fouls, unless they intentionally do so, otherwise Coach Pop trots out the standing stare at the referees. Greatness is something to be appreciated and is often not, but when you have to stoop to have players like Bruce Bowen, cry about every call and do the cretinous Hack-a-Shaq ploy, is this really what champions are made of? The Admiral, David Robinson embodied what was right about the San Antonio franchise.