Baseball Betting Look Ahead by the Numbers

With Baltimore being the last team to complete 81 games or half the season, we have information to take into account how all 30 major league teams have played and try to surmise how they might play in the future based on these results. Noted baseball guru Bill James and Baseball Prospectus are considered two of the most respected names that helped usher baseball into this modern era of information. Among the tools are runs scored and runs allowed, providing a method to determine if any baseball team is overachieving or possibly not playing up to the level of skill they have shown for different reasons.

The numerology is quite simple; multiply the each number by itself and add the two together. Divided the runs scored figure by the total, to create a percentage. Take this percentage, multiply by either 81 or 162 to determine the number of wins and losses a team should have.

Example- Boston Red Sox record 49-32 after 81 games. They have scored 406 runs and allowed 336.

406 x 406 = 164836
336 x 336 = 112898
164836 + 112898 = 277732
164836 divided by 277732 = .593 percent
81 games x .593 = 48-33
162 games x .593 = 96 -66

This methodology shows Boston is just about where they should be and is on pace for another outstanding season. Here is a look at each team’s record and runs scored/run allowed at mid-point of the season.

AL East
Boston 49-32 406 -336
Tampa Bay 59-32 382-327
N.Y. Yankees 44-37 384-361
Baltimore 41-40 366-370
Toronto 38-43 334-311

AL Central
Chicago 46-35 393-308
Minnesota 44-37 389-385
Detroit 41-40 393-389
Cleveland 37-44 356-341
Kansas City 37-44 329-373

AL West
L.A. Angels 48-33 339-328
Oakland 44-37 357-298
Texas 41-40 445-458
Seattle 31-50 331-390

NL East
Philadelphia 43-38 411-337
Florida 42-39 385-403
Atlanta 40-41 369-324
N.Y. Mets 40-41 378-379
Washington 32-49 296-403

NL Central
Chicago 49-32 442-344
St. Louis 45-36 374-353
Milwaukee 44-37 364-366
Pittsburgh 38-43 394-446
Houston 38-43 357-393
Cincinnati 36-45 339-406

NL West
Arizona 41-40 363-355
L.A. Dodgers 38-43 331-328
San Francisco 35-46 324-371
Colorado 32-49 338-413
San Diego 32-49 298-377

That is a lot of numbers, thus let’s dissect what some of these means. The Toronto Blue Jays have not met expectations to this juncture and could be a Play On team the second half of the season. What two elements have to change is more clutch hitting to score runs. Toronto hitters are in the lower third of nearly all offensive statistics, if they could just move into the mid-level group, they improve immediately. Because of lack of run production, the bullpen, despite a solid ERA and closing numbers have lost 16 games for the Blue Jays. If the pitching maintains and the bats wake up a little, Toronto is on schedule to win 87 games for the season, looking at the possibility of 49-32 second half.

The Chicago White Sox are in first place in the AL Central, have suffered a few bumps, yet for the most part, played good baseball. For Pale Hose backers, the news gets even better since they should have even a better record. With a differential of +85 at the middle of the season, this equates to 50-31 record, a full four games better than they have shown. At the midpoint of the season, any number greater than three or five at the end of the season, is noteworthy positive or negative. With the White Sox starting pitching improving, the bullpen the best in the American League and the hitters becoming more consistent, Chicago should run away in the second half. Watch this closely, since their money line odds will only increase if the winning continues, now is the time to make plays on the South Siders.

The Cleveland Indians are among the bigger disappointments in baseball with 37-44 record, after being within one game of playing in the World Series. A number of players injured or in season long slumps, below average starts from main hurlers and a shaky bullpen, has added up to failure. Based on this stat, the Tribe should rebound to at least be respectable the rest of the way. They actually had a +15 differential, suggesting they should be better. What makes this a tough call is the mood of the front office. If they trade C.C. Sabathia or others, this is a moot point and should be ignored.

The Los Angeles Angels have had one of the best records in the AL all season, thanks to great starting pitching, quality fielding and closer Frankie Rodriguez. Take away any of those pieces and this is an ordinary club. The Angels are only +11 for differential, as next to last offense doesn’t score runs and middle relief has been battered with alarming numbers. If nothing changes, this will become Play Against squad and be overtaken by Oakland, who conceivably could have been three games better in the first half. The A’s scored more runs than the Angels and gave up fewer also. They can match L.A. starters, have better middle staff and are receiving better performances from inferior lineup. Watch Oakland.

The Phillies hitters have become quieter than a Philadelphia fan with his mouth taped shut and strapped to a chair. Nobody really believes this will last for the rest of the season and eventually they will come around. Their starting pitching is good enough in the National League, especially with the best bullpen in the bigs. Just watch for when the hits start being nine or more a game and start backing the Phils again.

Atlanta’s a challenging read at +45 differential. Injuries keep mounting to starting pitching, Chipper Jones has one injury after another, and they are starting to lose more home games. Though it appears the Braves are Play On team, tread lightly.

The Milwaukee Brewers finished 44-37 in the first half, however allowing two more runs than they scored suggests 40-41 was more accurate assessment. The Brewers still have road issues, are .500 against RH starters and average in putting crooked numbers on the board. The bullpen is serviceable, yet don’t think every one-run lead they take into the eighth inning, doesn’t have Milwaukee fans sitting up straighter and ordering another beer, just in case.

In truth, several teams will have far different records than imagined. Even so, the vast majority will have up and down spells and settle very close to what their percentage should be based on runs scored and runs allowed. This certainly is worth watching and using as reference point the rest of the season for wagering or other purposes. The following numbers are the projected end of the season records based on first 81-games runs scored and allowed.

AL East
Boston 96-66
Tampa Bay 93-69
N.Y. Yankees 86-76
Baltimore 80-82
Toronto 87-75

AL Central
Chicago 100-62
Minnesota 82-80
Detroit 82-80
Cleveland 84-78
Kansas City 71-91

AL West
L.A. Angels 83-79
Oakland 95-67
Texas 71-91
Seattle 68-94

NL East
Philadelphia 97-65
Florida 77-85
Atlanta 91-71
N.Y. Mets 81-81
Washington 57-105

NL Central
Chicago 101-61
St. Louis 85-77
Milwaukee 81-81
Pittsburgh 71-91
Houston 73-89
Cincinnati 66-96

NL West
Arizona 83-79
L.A. Dodgers 82-80
San Francisco 70-92
Colorado 65-97
San Diego 62-100

Sports Wagering Info, July 2, at 3Daily Winners

A rotten day for our free information yesterday, as Toronto blew a 6-2 lead in the late innings, to at least give us a shot at one win. Like a NFL cornerback, you forget and move on and 3DW has a Totals System play that has yet to lose in 2008. Today’s best angle is 100 percent winner and the Free play is from a quirky member of the LCC. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) The Dodgers and Astros meet again and it is best to PLAY OVER when the total is 8.5 to 10 (currently 9), in a game involving two marginal losing teams (46 to 49 percent), playing on Wednesday. This Totals system is 42-14, 75 percent since 2004 and perfect 4-0 this season.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Joe Saunders and the Angels are is 11-0 against the money line vs. teams outscoring opposition by 0.5 or more runs a game on the season over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) A person who wishes identity to be unknown from the Left Coast Connection, though is a noted nickel player in Nevada, is 11-2, +10.6 units in last 13 and is riding Baltimore tonight.

NL Worst (West) Strictly Play Against Teams

It was the late king of the one-liners, Henny Youngman who had the joke, “Take my wife – Please”. This would be an apt description of the National League West, where only Arizona is over .500 on the season. Just a half a season removed from having two teams competing for the National League crown last October, this division is about as popular as an SUV gulping 12 miles a gallon. Let’s take a look back to figure this mess out.

In 2004, the Dodgers won the division with 93 wins, San Francisco won 91 and San Diego was better than competitive with 87 victories. 2005 saw a complete reversal of fortunes, as three teams in the division lost 87 or more games and the Padres were good fodder for jokes as division champs at 82-80. 2006 saw a sharp improvement in a very competitive NL West, with Los Angeles and San Diego both in the postseason and Arizona and Colorado at least respectable at 76-86. Last year, everything was on the upswing for this division, with four teams over .500 and three teams were battling for two spots in the NL playoffs. Talk about your Wild, Wild West!

What changed so dramatically, that this division is collectively -65.9 units, which includes games against each other, where somebody has to win?

We’ll start with first place Arizona. On May 18, the Diamondbacks were 28-16 and looked every bit as good, if not better than the team that won 90 games a season ago. Most figured Arizona would cruise along this season; however the cracks were apparent last year, they just never manifested themselves. The D-Backs allowed 20 more runs than they scored, more befitting a team winning 79 games, not 90. Another factor of concern coming into the season was the Snakes 32-20 record in one run games in 2007. This was easily the most in baseball and the highest winning percentage also. These tend to be random events from year to year and Arizona would need marked improvement in other areas to compensate. Arizona hitters like to swing aggressively, a little too aggressively, since they are third in the majors in strikeouts. When they score runs, this is easy to overlook, however when your team is 13-24 in last 37 games, not so much. How bad has the offense been, they have scored three or fewer runs 72.9 percent of the time (27) in the last 37 trips to the ball yard.

The Dodgers roster has been overhauled the last few years and has introduced a number of young players like Russell Martin, James Loney and Matt Kemp into the lineup. While the talent is evident, so is the youth, with plenty of mistakes going around. Other veteran players like Jeff Kent have not produced and Nomar Garciaparra and Andruw Jones have been on the DL. Not having an ace like Brad Penny (5-9, 5.88) has had trickle down affect on starting staff and an offense that is 27th in runs scored only exacerbates problems. Down 11 units, Dodgers backers need to see offense come together to help a decent pitching staff to make a run.

With the departure of Barry Bonds, San Francisco can finally go a new direction and do what they should have done three years ago, rebuild from the ground up. Despite 36-47 record, in many ways the Giants have been better than anticipated in certain areas. For bettors, they have the best money line unit record (still negative) at -5.3 units in the division. They are one of only seven teams to be at or above .500 (22-22, +6.3 units) and have a winning record of 15-13 in the division. Certain all-star, Tim Lincecum (8-1, 2.39) gives San Fran a chance every time he pitches and 25-year Jonathan Sanchez has surprised, with Giants winning 13 of his 17 starts. The 26th ranked offense is not going to score many runs, with lack of power and speed, but if starting pitchers Matt Cain and Barry Zito could pitch anywhere near ability, these goofy Giants could be contenders in the wacked-out West.

The laws of gravity finally caught up with San Diego. With only 1B Adrian Gonzalez a reliable offensive threat, the Padres are no threat to score many runs. The starting pitchers have way too much pressure on them to be almost perfect because of lack of run production and the wear shows on their faces and demeanor on the mound with runners on base. Even when the starting pitchers give them a chance, former closer extraordinaire Trevor Hoffman, is 40 years old and he is why San Diego has the worst save percentage in the big leagues at 48.4 percent. Too many poor personnel decisions and lack of production is why the Pads are the best Play Against team in baseball.

The Colorado Rockies as it turns out were a mirage. Much like seeking a Taco Bell at 3 AM with a belly full of Coors, everything was not as it appeared. Whether they put the baseballs in a humidor or not, Colorado has to score runs to win and averaging 4.2 per game is not enough, particularly when your team has the third-worst ERA in baseball at 4.83. The Rockies have had their share of injuries with Troy Tulowitzki and others missing time. Tulowitzki can speak with candor about what he has seen. "We haven't played well at all," admitted the shortstop. "We deserve to be in last place." Colorado is putrefactive 12-30 (-15.6) on the road, 22-42 (-21.6) taking on RH starters and 11-23 (-12.5) in this decaying division. Because Colorado has not hit with authority and the pitching reeks like a bottle of Coors Light left open behind a chair from a party after a week, the Rocks are rancid 11-24 in games decided by four or more runs.
With a half a season left, either playing against or staying away from the NL Worst is prudent attack.

Sports Betting Info for Tuesday July 1

Another solid 2-1 day, as we look for another sweep of the board here at 3Daily Winners. Today’s system is courtesy from our friends at StatFox.com and is stellar 84 percent winner. Tuesday’s Top Trend is a reverse perfect angle, check it out. The Free Play was a winner again and is ready to deliver again. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON road favorites with a money line of -125 or more like Toronto, averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game on the season, after two straight games with no home runs. This system is outstanding 42-8, 84 percent the last five seasons. (Courtesy of StatFox.com)

Free Baseball Trend -2) Washington is 0-10 against the money line with a tired bullpen, having thrown 13 or more innings over the last three games this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Mark from the LCC, hit his Free play and is a wonderful 13-4, +9 units in last 17 plays. He's backing the Cardinals to make it two in a row over the Metropolitans.

The American League blows away National League

Mercifully, the blood-letting has stopped, the National League can retreat back to its quaint little grouping and compete amongst itself with the knowledge that one team will emerge and be a World Series representative. Thank goodness baseball has history or like in the other major sports, fans would be clamoring to redo the playoff system based on what has again taken place.

With the New York Yankees and Pittsburgh having to make up one contest, the results won’t change much with the American League leading149-102, 59.3 percent. In the past, I’ve read and talked to handicappers who hate interleague play, since it throws off the normal flow or rhythm of teams. They are correct in one manner, while lacking intelligence at the same time. Play the American League and everything is just fine. To date, betting AL teams exclusively in 2008, netted +34.8 units of profit.

How dominant was the AL’s performance? Only Toronto (8-10), Cleveland (6-12) and Seattle (9-9) did not finish over .500 against National League counterparts. Compare that with just three clubs from the senior circuit had winning records. The N.Y. Mets and Cincinnati were 9-6 and Atlanta was 8-7, that’s it.

A trio of AL Central teams was really able to bolster their positions, whipping the NL. Minnesota was baseball best 14-4 (+12.3 units) in interleague play and has moved to within three games of first place Chicago White Sox, thanks to kicking National League tail. Detroit has been among the biggest disappointments in baseball, yet used a 13-5 record to crawl into third place in division and is now over .500 for the first time this season. Kansas City is 24-40 (-10.9 units) against teams in the American League; however with 13-5 (+9.3 units) mark versus NL, hopes for a .500 season are still within reach.

Why does the American League continue to dominate? The easy answer is better teams. This is shown in runs scored/runs allowed category. Only four teams in the AL have a negative number among the 14 clubs, with the NL Central having four all by themselves among the grand total of 10. Only four teams in the older league are five games or better over .500 in the standings, compared to seven on the junior circuit.

Though many of these numbers are not decisive, it speaks to the difference in the two leagues. From hitting perspective, the American League averages more runs, hits, doubles, total bases and runs batted in. They have a higher on-base percentage, batting average and slugging percentage than the NL. The only category that matters in which the National’s lead is home runs.

Pitching numbers are much the same. The AL has lower ERA, allows fewer hits per innings pitched, walks fewer batters and has lower batting averages against hitters. The only element the National League pitchers do better is having more strikeouts. The American League even has a slight edge in fielding. This year’s dominance was only surpassed by the AL’s wipeout of 2006.

I’d mentioned last week about playing against teams in last game of road trip (five or more played) and though it took a hit with rare nine games on Sunday (3-6), this angle still bares watching in the second half of the season at 94-59, 61.4 percent, good for +27. 8 units.

NBA Draft Thoughts

I wanted to make a few comments about the NBA Draft. No wonder following the NBA is so damn difficult, it makes no sense. Oh sure the Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley picks were predictable, despite rumors of Beasley having character issues that made him represented as Disney-like - Goofy.

It was how the rest of draft played out, that left me wondering. Numerous scouts wondered how Kevin Love was going to be able to get off jump shots, rebound with authority and play defense, literally days before the draft. Yet he’s picked fifth overall and is shipped almost immediately to the Land of 10,000 lakes. If he’s not Elton Brand, this was wasted pick.

The New York Knicks have the most dysfunctional roster in the league and take Danilo Gallinari? Now Gallinari is supposed to be the best Euro, but wait till he meets his new teammates. Hopefully he doesn’t learn how to talk “Knick” and become a malcontent himself.

The Milwaukee Bucks take Joe Alexander, who had a wonderful junior season at West Virginia and impressed several clubs with his athletic ability. However just a year ago, Milwaukee drafted Yi Jianlian to play small forward, despite his instance of wanting to play in bigger media market. After one season, Milwaukee trades what presumably was star of the future for Richard Jefferson, who happens to play the three spot, same as Alexander. Is this making sense, or do I need another Milwaukee Best?

There are other examples of what looks to be tomfoolery; however I’ve come to this conclusion. Taking players in the NBA draft is like buying futures, with a three-year window because of rookie salary cap. If it doesn’t look like a player is going to work out, move him and go on to the next one. If he looks like a keeper, tender him new contract and keep trying to build team. Of course the accountability factor of the GM is swept under the rug, or he is shown the door. No wonder the NBA is so hard to stomach.

Sports Betting Info for Monday June 30

Baltimore’s excellent bullpen couldn’t hold an extra inning lead, costing us a clean sweep yesterday. We will give it another try with a System play that is 16-2 since 2006. See what to expect from San Diego tonight in Top Trend and 3DW’s Free Plays are on 11-2 run and welcome a new sharpie on a hot streak. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON home favorites like the White Sox, with a money line of -110 or higher vs. division opponents, after three consecutive games versus an interleague opponent. This system is 16-2. 88.8 percent the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Trend -2) San Diego is 1-12 against the money line after three consecutive games versus an interleague opponent this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) We welcome Mark from the LCC, who is a tidy 11-3, +8.25 units in last 14 and is on the White Sox tonight.

Sports Betting Info for Sunday June 29

The System selection was our lone winner on Saturday and we’ll seek to close the week on a high note. Today’s System play is riding a hot underdog against a very good pitcher. The Trend goes against a struggling major league team who performs poorly after a bad offensive showing and the Free Play is on the West Coast. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST road teams like Milwaukee with a money line of -100 to -150, with a starting pitcher like Ben Sheets (9-1, 1.035 WHIP) whose WHIP is 1.050 or better on the season-NL, where team's hitters strike out 7 or more times a game on the season. This swell little system is 24-9, 72.7 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Washington is 2-15 after scoring one or fewer runs in next outing.

Free Baseball Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection is 62-25 on consensus action in last 87 plays and is on the Angels to avoid the sweep, after losing last night despite not allowing any hits by the Dodgers.

Sports Betting Info for June 28

Our System plays have not been as potent lately, yet are still 29-13 officially and we have one today in the Cubs/White Sox matchup. Yesterday’s Top Trend was easy winner and we’ll take a look at a total tonight. Our Free Plays have won 10 of last 12 and today looks at the Battle in the Bay Area. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST road teams like the Cubs with a team batting average of .275 or better on the season (NL), in June games. This system is 62-26, 70.5 percent the last five seasons.

Free Baseball Trend -2) HOUSTON is 17-4 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Slick Rick is back, thanks to 9-2 run in baseball and he is on Oakland to win again against San Francisco.

Sports Betting Info, June 27, at 3Daily Winners

Clap, clap, clap for Sal who won a wallet-stuffing 10 games in a row here at 3Daily Winners, thanks Sal, we know you’ll be back soon if the run continues. Today’s System play takes of north of the border and has won 80.5 percent of the time, with tonight’s Top Trend a 92.8 percent winner. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON all favorites with a money line of -110 or higher, when club is batting .315 or better over their last five games like Toronto, against opponent with a starting pitcher like Atlanta’s Jair Jurrjens who gave up one or fewer earned runs in his last two outings. This emphatic system is 33-8, 80.5 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Tampa Bay has won 13 of last 14 when favored by -150 or higher.

Free Baseball Selection -3) We move on to another sharp bettor from the Left Coast Connection, who only plays money lines within plus or minus 125. Tonight he’s betting the Angels in I-5 freeway series.

Baseball’s Bettors Good, Bad and Ugly

As the baseball season approaches the halfway point, here is a look at who are the good and bad teams to wager on and some so ugly, they make onions cry. Take a gander at what numbers are important and what has been happening to these major league clubs.

GOOD

Chicago Cubs 49-29 +14.6 units
The Chicago Cubs continue to be the best and safest bet in major league baseball, thanks to a powerful every day lineup manager Lou Pinella has to work with and versatility to rest players. The Cubs have bludgeoned visiting teams, scoring a baseball best, 6.5 runs per game at what are truly the Friendly Confines for the North Siders. Run line players should note jaw-dropping 2.6 runs per game edge. The Cubs are 33-9 at home for sick +19.5 units of profit. Keep an eye on their fortunes, with 16 of next 22 games on the road.

Tampa Bay 46-31 +13.4 units
Some people believe the world is more amiss than anytime in history, with home foreclosures, rising inflation and the job market upside down. Yet as crazy as all these things are, for fans and bettors of baseball, Tampa Bay having one less loss than the defending World Series champion Boston Red Sox in late June, well in today’s world, this might make sense. Like most of the top teams in baseball in 2008, the Rays have superior home field edge at 30-13, +14 units. It’s all about the pitching for Tampa Bay, being third in ERA and batting average allowed. What might be the most difficult aspect to comprehend; the Rays are 32-17 when favored. Raydiculous!

St. Louis 45-34 +11.5 units
The overused term “thinking out of the box” is on its way to infamy; however it may be the only way to describe what St. Louis has done in 2008 and continues to do. Ask anyone outside of St. Louis to name starting lineup for the Cards and most are stuck after Albert Pujols. But players like Ryan Ludwick and Skip Shumaker are making a name for themselves and former Angels retreads Troy Glaus and Adam Kennedy are drinking from manager Tony LaRussa fountain of youth. The Cardinals are above average offensively in scoring 4.7 RPG, yet the real secret is inside the numbers. The Redbirds are 2nd in walks, 3rd in on-base percentage and 25th in strikeouts. Also, pitching coach Dave Duncan is working miracles with this pitching staff.

BAD

Philadelphia 43-36 -0.7
The Philadelphia franchise is still on track to win the NL East division; nevertheless recent ugly play has cut lead down to next to nothing. The Phils have lost 8 of 10, thanks to of all reasons, the offense. In the losses, they have averaged 2.3 runs per game, far below normal for a team that was ringing up 5.5 RPG before slump. Over the next week, Philly still has trips to Texas and Atlanta. They must avoid close contests, since they are 30-11 in games decided by two or more runs.

Atlanta 39-41 -8.4 units
Remember when Atlanta was whippin’ up on all-comers at Turner Field not that long ago? The Braves are still a highly respectable 28-14 (+9.7 units) at home, yet are only 3-6 in last nine for Bobby Cox in the white uniforms. With 11-27 record as visitors, road warriors hardly apply to these Braves. Maybe a quick trip to Canada (Toronto) will help Atlanta over the weekend before returning home. The Bravos must find a way to avoid or conquer one run games, since they are beastly 4-20.

New York Mets 38-39 -10.6 units
You fire your manager in the middle of the night and the owner of the team wants no part of the blame, despite known meddling. Somehow the club wins four of six contests on road, in spite of forlorn prior record, only to come home and lose a series to a Seattle team in shambles, go figure. The Mets are like a ship lost at sea, as interim manager Jerry Manuel has called out players, gotten kicked out of game in short tenure and had extremely rare fielding practice during the season. By all appearances this is a team without a heart or soul.

UGLY

San Diego 32-47 -18.6 units
Building a ballpark downtown, where the night air is thicker than a three-pound porterhouse, in retrospect might not have been ideal for team looking to upgrade offense. Additionally, it only seems like the outfielders need binoculars to see one another from their positions. With this information, how does one account for 11-25 road (-13.1 units), when San Diego players should be thrilled to play in parks where could actually score runs? GM Kevin Towers huffed and puffed earlier in the season about taking this team apart, but one question, who assembled the lineup that is in the bottom 20 percent of virtually every offensive category? With the starting pitchers feeling like they have to throw a shutout each time out, the pressure gets to them. Maybe the Padres should schedule more day games since they are 20-37 at night.

Cleveland 35-43 -19.9 units
Let’s give Cleveland credit; they might be better than they look. The Indians are 18th in runs scored and 11th in runs allowed. They are 20-20 at home (-11 units, ouch) and 27-27 when favored (-13.3 units, double ouch). Under the lights the Tribe is also .500 (27-27), but in Chris Farley-speak, the -8.4 units does leave a mark. Digging just at the surface, this Cleveland club is a fraud by checking other more important numbers. They are 29th in batting average and 26th in total bases, meaning they are prone to occasional offense outbursts, which artificially inflate on the field day-to-day production. If not for Cliff Lee at 10-1 (Indians 11-3 in all starts), the starting rotation would be further exposed and bullpen has 4.81 ERA, with 8-14 record and sad-sack 52 percent save percentage.

Seattle 28-50 -24.8 units
After winning 88 games in 2007, Seattle believed they were on their way to seriously competing with the Angels again. Instead, what happened is reality set in. The Mariners have six everyday players in the lineup who were born in the 1970’s. Most or all are past their prime and last season could have been one last hurrah. There is a laundry list of negative numbers hanging over Seattle and nothing suggests today, the M’s will be better soon. Thanks Bill Bavasi.

Doug Upstone is also feature writer for StatFox.com

Sports Betting Info, June 26, at 3Daily Winners

Our guy Sal has hit amazing TEN straight here and has a play in afternoon action. I’ve never seen a guy this hot in baseball for sustained period. Our Trend play was a Winner yesterday and we have a perfect one this afternoon. The System plays are rather meager and the one listed below is the best of the bunch at 73.5 percent, still very solid, just not up to our standards and will not be counted as official play. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST any team like Texas who allows 5.2 or more runs a game on the season (AL), after allowing four runs or less in four straight games. The logic speaks for itself in this system. Over the course of a 162-game schedule, every team will do something out of character for periods of time. Boston has had hitting slumps, San Diego actually scored five or more runs a few games in a row, elements contrary to normal patterns. The facts are the Rangers pitching staff is perfidious across the board, including the bullpen with a 5.04 ERA. This system has won 73.5 percent of the time in the last five seasons with 50-18 record.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Chicago Cubs are 10-0 against the money line in home games with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last five games this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal was 4-0 in personal plays, including 10th straight Winner here. This raises his record to 34-7, 82.9 percent in own action and is on the Cubs again this afternoon. He did email saying he believes another play might be coming in tonight’s action. Stay tuned.

Having a little fun Betting NBA Draft

With the first pick in the NBA Draft, the Chicago Bulls take ____________? There are only two choices for GM John Paxson to make, Derrick Rose of Memphis or Michael Beasley. Whatever decision he makes, it will explain the confidence he has in his own job with the Bulls. Purely from ability and ready to go talent, Beasley is the choice and would provide new coach Vinny Del Negro immediate help. Rose on the other hand would play one of the most important positions on the floor. As talented as Rose is, nobody has mentioned him being as good as Chris Paul a couple of seasons ago and would not come into the NBA as top-10 point guard from the get-go. He’s not known as exceptional passer at this juncture, thus would need to develop, does Paxson have the time to wait?

A few sportsbooks have Rose at 1-8 odds and Beasley at 4-1 to be the top pick and would have to agree the former Memphis star is headed back to his home town.

Beasley at number two is not a given for Miami. After being listed at 6’10 coming out of high school, the former K-State star was recalibrated and is couple of centimeters either way of 6’8, depending who you listen to. Miami’s Pat Riley holds the second pick and speculation is rising he has serious reservations about Beasley’s character, with the most common word used to describe him being “goofy”. In a league that goes after disgraced a NBA referee to get shoe money back for opprobrious behavior, selecting a Disney character might be a reach.

Sources around the NBA have stated the Heat had secret workouts with Pac-10 guard stars Jerryd Bayless and O.J. Mayo. Riley would prefer to have a running mate with Dwayne Wade in the backcourt and are shopping Beasley or willing to trade pick to move down and draft one of the two aforementioned players.

At this time, what the Heat will do is not known, thus we can only deal with the present possibilities. Other wagers at various sportsbooks include draft positions to wager on. According to front office leaks, if Mayo is still available at #3, Minnesota will select him, proving why this wager is 4/15 odds. At four, Seattle wants to start building a solid backcourt and anyone other than Bayless is a reach, though Russell Westbrook and Eric Gordon have been thrown around on Sonics blogs. Bayless is 4/5, with Westbrook interesting play at 9/4.

Kevin Love is his own prop wager, trying to guess where he might go in slots five-ten. He’s at 2-3 odds to be taken by Memphis; however they are not enamored with him and will likely be drafting him for somebody else. If that does happen, numbers eight or nine are the most logical slots, being Milwaukee and Charlotte. Though Love makes sense in either location depending on front office thoughts, despot owners have other ideas, making 6-1 odds seem like a long shot.

Here are a few other head-to-head prop bets to consider, in who is drafted higher.

Joe Alexander -130
Danillo Gallinari +100

Joe Alexander speaks fluent Mandarin and could converse with Yi Jianlian; this should not be enough of a reason for Milwaukee to draft him. Gallinari goes to New Jersey at 10 and Alexander likely to Sacramento at 12th slot.

Brook Lopez +135
Kevin Love -170

The Oregon native and UCLA star is destined to be picked earlier, though unlike Lopez, might not be with the team that chooses him for long.

Eric Gordon -210
Danillo Gallinari +165

Gordon’s stock has improved the last three weeks and will be chosen in 6-9 range, ahead of the top European prospect.

Other prop wagers are also available and here is a look at some of those.

Courtney Lee will be taken in first or second round?

A modest -140 is reasonable for a player with scoring skills, who undoubtedly will be chosen in the later stages of the first round.

Brandon Rush will be a lottery pick? (1-14)

With most draft boards having Rush at 15 or higher, this is worth a small wager that Rush is picked by Portland at 13. Blazers GM Kevin Pritchard has his frontcourt of the future with Greg Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge and will need to start adding players in the backcourt. Rush can play defense, is superior athlete and shooting range has improved dramatically in years at Kansas. Take the +140 and keep fingers crossed.

Joe Alexander will be 8th pick in the draft

As noted previously, unless a multitude of trades occur, the Bucks would be foolish to take a player who really only produced in his junior year at West Virginia. Is this a sign of continued improvement or a player reaching his potential? His workout numbers were very good, but most NBA teams draft on need and potential, does he fit either for the Bucks? The +200 not to be 8th pick seems like a gift, however we are talking about the Milwaukee front office, where logic does not dictate success.

Roy Hibbert Over/Under 19.5 draft position

No team with needs in the top 19 spots has a need for a limited athlete like Hibbert. He deserves credit for working hard and improving every year at Georgetown, he seems destined to be a career backup. Take the -130 on the Over.

Sports Betting Info, June 25, at 3Daily Winners

Sal is the man, no doubt about. Readers are having fun just coming to this blog to pick up easy winners and Sal is goes for TEN in a row with tonight’s selection. Our System play returns with high quality return, winning 85.1 percent of the time. This evening’s Top Trend takes us to beautiful San Diego. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like the Reds with a money line of +125 to +175, as a poor NL hitting team (.250 or less BA) against a team with a good bullpen like Toronto (3.75 ERA or lower), who is frigid hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 15 games. This system has been a winner 85.1 percent of the time with 40-7 record. Facing the Jays Roy Halladay won’t make matters easier.

Free Baseball Trend -2) MINNESOTA is 13-2 against the money line vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Were running out of superlatives for Sal from the left Coast Connection, posting his NINTH straight Free Winner here at 3DW. Tonight he’s on the Chicago Cubs seeking to improve his record to at least 30-7 on personal plays.

Bet these five starting pitchers to go Over the total

For most casual baseball fans, the game is too slow, not enough action and more runs needed to be scored, similar to a slow-pitch softball game. While major league baseball has added the thrilling aspect of players and fans to be impaled by exploding maple bats, most prefer to see runs being scored either going to the ballpark or on television. Many lukewarm bettors of baseball tend to bet Over the total, since that is their preferred interest in the sport as a whole. Since pitching is such an important aspect of baseball, here is a current roster of the best pitchers to wager on for games exceeding the total.

What fits our criterion is a starting hurler still in the rotation, despite surrendering a ton of runs and his team playing Over continually when he takes the horsehide. A perfect example is Tom Gorzelanny (5-6, 6.59 ERA) of Pittsburgh. The 25-year left-hander made serious progress in 2007, with 14-10 record and respectable 3.88 ERA. With above average fastball and slider, this was supposed to be his breakout season. Instead, he has been less effective than SPF30 in Death Valley, CA. His 6.59 earned run average is easily determined by allowing more walks than strikeouts (50-39) on the season, while already seeing 12 balls going over the fence. On the year, Gorzelanny is 11-3 OVER with the Bucs, including perfection on the road with 7-0 OVER mark. Of course when you have 8.63 road ERA, Over’s come much easier.

It’s hard to believe Livan Hernandez (8-4, 5.23) is only 33 years old, since it seems he’s been around longer than Jamie Moyer. Packing a robust 245 pounds on a 6’2 frame, Hernandez no longer has overpowering stuff and pitches out of the stretch more than most relievers. He’s allowed 150 base hits in just over 103 innings of work, as opposing teams are hitting almost .350 against him. It doesn’t matter right or left-handed batters either, as the former hits .345 and the latter .351 versus Hernandez. Miraculously, Minnesota has won 12 of his 17 starts, thanks in part to scoring five or more runs in a dozen of his trips up the hill. Livan and the Twins are 12-5 OVER, as they have favorites just once when manager Ron Gardenhire handed him the ball, yet have won 11 of 16 times. Presently, playing a Twins and Over parlay with Hernandez pitching has solid winning potential.

Another hurler who has produced great results for those preferring to wager Over the number is Texas’ Vincente Padilla (10-3, 3.74). The Nicaragua native has had a career easier to read than Cat in the Hat. If Padilla pitches 200 or more innings in a season, injures will follow. After chucking 200 in 2006, he managed just 120 innings last season with sore arm. Rejuvenated, he’s exceptional in notorious hitters’ park in Arlington. Texas is 11-5 OVER when Padilla is starting pitcher and has won 13 of his 16 trips. In fact, the Rangers have won 10 of his 11 last starts, but scoring almost 7.5 runs per game will help the cause. Texas is 7-3 OVER as underdog, winning eight times with 30-year old on the mound.

Neither Philadelphia’s Kyle Kendrick (6-3, 5.06) nor the White Sox Javier Vazquez (7-6, 4.50) is at the top of respective team rotation, yet both are good Over bets with 10-5 mark. Kendrick is still a young pitcher at 23, however needs to start missing more bats if he desires lengthy professional career. This season he’s given up 93 hits in just over 78 innings and averages only a touch over two strikeouts per start. He’s backed up with potent Phillies offense and is 7-3 OVER when favored.
After beginning the season well, the Sox Vazquez has struggled mightily in June. He is 2-2, yet has surrendered 19 runs in four starts covering 23.1 innings. Included have been 29 hits, 12 walks and six long balls. Vazquez is 5-1, 4.78 ERA at U.S. Cellular Field and the Pale Hose are 6-0 OVER in those encounters. Like all the pitchers mentioned, he receives tremendous run support, with the Sox scoring 9.1 RPG when Vazquez is the man on the mound on the south side of Chicago.

Sports Betting Info, June 24, at 3Daily Winners

Sal from the Left Coast Connection did it again and is 8-0 here at 3Daily Winners with his Free Picks. His latest is up for review right now. As expected our System play bounced back, unfortunately, nothing of value is on the board today, thus we’ll pass. Even though the Trend was not official, it was still a winner and we have 92.3 percent angle going tonight. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) No Exceptional System plays today.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Kenny Rogers of Detroit is 12-1 against the money line as home favorite of -105 - -150.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal has been everybody’s pal with EIGHT straight winners here and is on 28-6 personal tidal wave of wins. His top play today is Kansas City.

Sports Wagering Info, June 23, at 3Daily Winners

Sal from the Left Coast Connection is on blistering run in baseball betting, with 27-6 record. His is on of the hotter streaks we have seen by anyone for sustained period and we’re thrilled he’s providing readers with SEVEN straight winners. Sal has hopefully #8 listed below. Though our system plays have hit a brief slump, tonight we are confident this improves to 29-12. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON All favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 like the Angels, who are stranding 6.9 or less runners on base per game on the season, in the first half of the season. This consistent winning system is 124-31, 80 percent the last five years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) No exceptional trend stands out, thus we’ll pass here. Of interest however is Felix Hernandez and Seattle are 9-2 when he pitches as underdog.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal has now gone a solid week without losing at 3Daily Winners and has made a bundle betting on his own with 27-6 record in last 33 wagers. Tonight’s he’s making a small wager on the Angels because of the high money line.

For heavens sake, don’t wager against Halos on the road

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim might be about the least imposing team to have the best record in the American League in years. Their 46-30 record in certainly impressive, yet their run differential on the season is only +13, which is seventh in the AL, or 50 behind Oakland, who is in second place in the AL West. The Angels are a paltry 11th in runs scored in the junior circuit, yet put this club in the traveling grays and good luck trying to hang a loss on this group.

After a less than impressive showing at home against Atlanta and the Mets in which they lost four of six, L.A. of Ana. flew cross-country to face Philadelphia, who was playing exceptional baseball. The Phillies have been one of the top scoring teams in baseball and seemed destined to at the very least take the series against the Angels. Instead, manager Mike Scioscia’s club grabbed the lead early in all three games and completed an unlikely sweep in the City of Brotherly Love.

Los Angeles is one of only five teams in major league baseball to possess a winning record on the road at 24-12 (+13-4 units), which happens to be more games over .500 (12) than the other four teams combined (10). How do they do it? It starts quality starting pitching. John Lackey (Monday’s starter), Joe Saunders, and Ervin Santana (Wednesday’s starter) are a combined 24-7, with Santana having the worst ERA among the three at a superb 3.17. John Garland (6-4) has had is moments and Jered Weaver (7-7), after a brutal beginning has won five of last seven starts to square up record at .500. The Angels middle relievers have been spotty, accounting for poor run differential, as they have lost nine games by five or more runs. Despite an ordinary 4.11 ERA, collectively this troop has really buckled down on the road with 2.93 ERA, with baseball’s best closer Francisco Rodriguez. The whirling dervish has a baseball best 30 saves and though he’s had less command at different points (19 walks- 34 innings), K-Rod has settled down when needed. Los Angeles only allows 3.5 runs per game on the road.

The offense is far from spectacular, despite a payroll that should suggest otherwise. Gary Mathews Jr parlayed one big year into excessive contract and is batting meager .243. Torii Hunter has only been average with .276 BA and nine home runs, and Garrett Anderson will be 36 years old next week and looks it. The most important bat in the lineup is Vladimir Guerrero, who after an extremely slow start is on the rise, and was a one man wrecking crew against the Phillies. Vlad’s recent surge has him hitting .289, still well below .323 career batting average. If any of the other outfielders start to come around, they’ll blend nicely with Chone Figgins, Casey Kotchman and Howie Kendrick, who are all above or near .300 batting average.

Los Angeles figures to be favored in all three games against Washington in our nation’s capital, as the Nationals have the worst record in the National League at 30-47. In one aspect this is too bad for a team like the Halos who are 13-7 as road underdogs this season. Certainly this club is capable of offensive explosions, but has too many free swingers, which holds them back from being consistent and is among the reasons why they are the second best Under team in baseball at 45-25-6. To date, Scioscia’s club appears more comfortable in lower scoring games with 35-18 record in contests decided by three or less runs.

Now is not the time to start betting against this heavenly bunch. Los Angeles is a -220 series favorite at most wagering locations to continue winning ways.

Sports Wagering Info, June 22, at 3Daily Winners

We caught a lucky break to finish 2-1 yesterday, as Atlanta scored four runs in last two innings to defeat Seattle. Sal, what can you say, this guy in Dan Patrick en fuego, with Six Straight FREE Winners here at 3Daily Winners, looking for number seven. Our perfect Trend returns and it is amazing. The System play will try to get back in the groove backing a hot hurler. This system is 33-4 run. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like Houston with a money line of +175 to +250, where a team's hitters draw three walks or less a game (2.74) on the season, against opponent with a hot starting pitcher like the Rays Scott Kazmir (6-2, 1.76), who has a WHIP under 1.000 over his last five starts. The thought process for this system is an impatient lineup is unlikely to do well against a starter who is on top of his game. In the last three seasons, this beauty is 33-4, 89.1 percent.

Free Baseball Trend – 2) When Tim Hudson pitches at home on a Sunday, the teams he has played for are 19-0.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal from the Left Coast Connection has hit his last SIX FREE plays here at 3DW and is 24-6 on his most recent successful hot stretch on the bases. He tells us he expects to continue winning playing Milwaukee today.

Sports Betting Info, June 21 , at 3Daily Winners

Sal from the LCC is on fire, with sensational personal record, as he goes for six in a row on his Free picks here. We dug up another perfect Trend from a contest down south and on Fox Saturday baseball; we have a System that has won 79.8 percent of the time since 2004. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like St. Louis with a money line of +150 or more, who are a NL team with an on-base percentage of .340 or higher, facing at quality AL starting pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka (8-0, 2.53, 1.297 WHIP) with a WHIP of 1.300 or less, in the first half of the season. This system is scintillating 71-18, 79.8 percent the last five seasons.

Free Baseball Trend – 2) The Braves and Jair Jurrjens are 12-0 at home when he is starting pitcher for Atlanta.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal from the Left Coast Connection has hit his last FIVE FREE plays here at 3DW and is 22-6 on his most recent successful hot stretch on the bases. Tonight he is backing Minnesota in middle game of the series against Arizona.

Baseball Betting Numbers and Sharp Angle

Here is an update to my record in selecting baseball winners this season. As you read this, the record is 114-88-1, 56.4 percent, good for +19.7 units. My preferred place to show record is at FreeSportsMonitor.com, but they have a new format and have essentially dropped the old one. For those that want proof of this record, click here and you’ll its pretty close, with deviation coming from lines different, having me not always listing every play I wager. This year I’ve played more favorites than usual, based mostly on how well home teams have performed thus far. My whole method is based on who is going to win, not playing favorites or underdogs. I seldom play anything over -150; however will when all my figures point that way. Thus far I’ve made only 11 such plays, with 8-3 record, for +4.32 units. My good friend and professional gambler Paul Buck has a sharp angle for tonight he uncovered this season.

Baseball Betting Angle- In 2008, when a team has registered 10 or more hits in exactly three games and next contest is on the road, they are 8-34, -26.05 units. Today, consider playing against the Angels and the Orioles who are perfect fit.

Sports Betting Info, June 20 , at 3Daily Winners

Another 3-0 day yesterday has us torching the sportsbooks at 3Daily Winners. We have received emails inquiring about our record with these plays. Since we started this format on May 12 the records are:

System Plays – 28-9, 75.6 percent
Free Selections – 30-21, 58.8 percent
Trend Plays – 20-18, 52.6 percent

Clearly something good is going on here. Today our System play is a fantastic 16-2 the last three seasons. The Trend play has won 95 percent of the time and Sal will look to make FIVE Free baseball winners in a row. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like the Mariners with a money line of +100 or higher, who are sad AL offensive team (28th), scoring 4.2 or less runs a game, against a team like Atlanta with a good bullpen -3.34 ERA- (3.75 or less), with a starting pitcher like Erik Bedard (1-2, 7.14 road record) whose gives up 5.5 or less hits a start. This system is gi-normous 16-2, 88.8 percent the since 2006.

Free Baseball Trend – 2) Boston and Tim Wakefield are 19-1 when a -125 to -175 Fenway favorite.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal from the Left Coast Connection has hit his last FOUR FREE plays here at 3DW and is 19-4 on his most recent current hot stretch on the bases. Today's freebie is on the Cubs in the Windy City matchup.

Baseball and Basketball Thoughts

The Seattle Mariners canned GM Bill Bavasi on Monday and manager John McLaren was shown the door on Thursday. It’s really no surprise, when your team has the worst record in baseball, are unlucky 13th in batting average, runs scored and earned run average. McLaren was thought to be a rah-rah sis-boom-bah guy for a veteran team that swung and missed far too often. This style is thought to be like ordering black coffee at Starbucks for this club. Why Seattle ever hired Bavasi was a mystery to begin with, since his career has mostly been a failure with his running the show. At least McLaren will have history to forever be remembered. If you were a manager and had Richie Sexson and Jose Lopez on the right side of the infield, you would be pissed too.

A few final thoughts on the Lakers and Celtics series. I’d written about how Boston could not be NBA champions, based on how they were playing at the time. I believe that assessment was accurate when I wrote it, just didn’t turn out to be true. In Game 6, the ABC announcers were talking about how the Celtics came together after beating Detroit on the road in Game 3, 94-80, which gave them the confidence needed to move on. What I believe was more true was losing Game 2 at home to the Pistons. After winning nine straight playoff games in Beantown, their air of invincibility was broken at TD Banknorth Garden, leading them collectively to play with far greater sense of urgency. Nice job by the C’s who actually ended up covering the spread in all eight games this season against the Lakers. WOW!

Went to A’s and D-Backs Wednesday night and Oakland’s Joe Blanton should be a dart thrower, since he never missed an Arizona bat in allowing eight runs in three innings. He was throwing in the low 90’s, but sitting behind the plate, his pitches were straight as a string, lacking ANY movement. His 3-10 record is well-deserved.

Sports Betting Info, June 19 , at 3Daily Winners

Lots of early action, so let’s get to it. Sal from the LCC is 3-0 here and is backing a team with outstanding record in interleague action. The System play was a winner yesterday and is a 88 percent winner the last 11 seasons. You’ll have to dig deep to back today’s top Trend, however it should be worth it. Good Luck.

System -1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like the Chicago Cubs, with a money line of +100 or higher, who are a good NL offensive team scoring five or more runs a game, against a good AL starting pitcher like James Shields (3-1, 1.72 at home) who has a 4.20 ERA or lower (3.91), when his team is on a good fielding streak, 10 straight games with one or less errors. This system is stellar is 44-6, 88 percent.

Trend – 2) San Diego is 6-22 against the money line after two or more consecutive road games this season.

FREE Selection -3) Sal from the Left Coast Connection has hit his last three Free plays here at 3DW and is 16-4 on his most recent current hot stretch on the bases. Today, he’s throwing his support toward Minnesota, who as he reminds us is 32-12 in last 44 interleague contests.

Sports Betting Info, June 18 , at 3Daily Winners

Congrats to the Boston Celtics for a well-deserved NBA title. On the subject of good going, 3DW was 4-0 on all plays yesterday, as Sal was 2-0 on Free Picks and has another presumed winner in afternoon action. Our outstanding system plays keep winning and we have an 88.1 percent coxcomb that is very capable of adding to bankroll. Once again we have uncovered a perfect Trend, found this time on the west coast of Florida. Good Luck.

System -1) PLAY AGAINST any team which is a bad AL offensive team like Toronto, scoring 4.5 or less a game, facing a pitcher like Ben Sheets (7-1, 2.72 ERA) of the Brewers, who has an ERA of 3.70 or less in the NL, taking on a cold hitting team, batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games. This system is an exquisite 37-5, 88.1 percent since the beginning of 1997 season.

Trend – 2) The Cubs and Carlos Zambrano are 12-0 as a road favorite of -125 to -150.

FREE Selection -3) Sal from the Left Coast Connection was a perfect 2-0 on Free plays, which were his own personal selections, raising record to 13-3 in MLB games. Today he’s on Detroit and might have another play up, which would be by 6 Eastern if he does. Note- After studying, nothing else made sense was the email he sent us.

Sports Betting Info, June 17 , at 3Daily Winners

We have one beauty of a System, which is 88.9 percent the last five years. Tonight’s Trend play is in Game 6 in the NBA Finals and has 100 percent record this season and a pair of Free Plays is available in MLB action. Good Luck.

System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like San Diego with a money line of +150 or more - with a starting pitcher like Randy Wolf (5-4, 1.228 WHIP) whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season-NL and who has been a hot starting pitcher- with ERA less than 2.50 (1.35) over his last three starts. Logic dictates Wolf will continue success, but is due for back to normal outing. With Padres dreadful bullpen and the Yankees 24-5 against the money line after scoring 10 runs or more, this system’s 40-5 record the last five years look delectable.

Trend – 2) The Lakers are 0-9 ATS versus good defensive teams with shooting percentage defense of 43 percent or less this season.

FREE Selection -3) Sal from the Left Coast Connection is back and has Baltimore and Milwaukee as plays, trying to build on 11-3 record in recent MLB games.

Arena Football thoughts and other stuff

I went to my third ever Arena Football last night, seeing Colorado and Arizona play. Previously I’d seen the Milwaukee Mustangs (1994- 2001) on the 50-yard carpet, but couldn’t begin to guess what year, not that this matters. My previous memories were from an entertainment perspective about a five, on a scale of 1-10. Sort of like a TV show that your wife or girlfriend is watching, not bad, just not anything you would invest time on regularly.

Arizona has already wrapped up playoff spot and needed to, since new ownership group “guaranteed” the Rattlers would make the postseason on a money back promise for season ticket holders. Colorado used to be a AFL power, but is 5-10 after beating Arizona and is still in contention for playoff spot (don’t ask how, please) heading into the final week of the season.

I’ve watched snippets on TV over the years, but here are general observations. I can see why veteran quarterbacks have so much more success in this league. It’s about making one or two reads and getting rid of the ball. They more flick the ball than throw it, which coming out of college would be a problem for any quarterback trained to play differently. Many throws are off-balance, thus the Kurt Warner’s are few and extremely far between.

Because it is eight on eight, three defensive linemen and a roving linebacker rush the passer. Granted Arizona and Colorado are not the crème of Arena Football, but I was perplexed why defensive linemen just bull-rushed each time and never got their hands up. With the ball being thrown so quickly, chances for a sack are few, thus a batted or tipped pass seems nearly as valuable as sack.

If any AFL team has one really good DB, they have a real chance to limit opposition and make the field smaller, because of cover skills. The motion receiver is used to run clear-outs (at least by these two teams) and was surprised neither team ran more post patterns especially on early downs. Not that an NFL general manager would do this for many reasons, however if my team ran West Coast offense, and had a receiver I wanted to develop in the slot, or a pass-catcher that was non-starter who needed work on how to get open in passing game under 10 yards, playing Arena ball could develop those skills.

The funniest thing I’ve seen in years at a sporting event was a sponsored event by Buffalo Wild Wings. Six guys had 90 seconds to eat as many wings as possible to earn a year’s supply from BWW. They were introduced, all smiley faced and seemingly anxious to chow down. Though the number eaten by the winner was never announced, the looks on these guys faces was hilarious, trying to choke down these wings and I’m sure this one dude yakked once he got off the field. Great stuff. Last time I saw something that funny was at a Chicago Bulls game and they had probably 20 babies on the floor for a race to crawl from free throw line to midcourt for some sort of prize. At one point every kid was crying, as parents were prodding them to keep crawling, hysterical.

As NFL Hall of Famer and CBS analyst Dan Dierdorf would say, “Gutsy” move by the New York Mets to fire Willie Randolph and a couple of coaches in the middle of the night Eastern time in L.A. While the Mets and Randolph were blamed for no heart in September collapse last year, which evidently had carry-over affect, it’s clear the front office has many of those same qualities.

This Javon Walker story in Vegas is bounded to have more juicy details.

Bill Walker from Kansas State decides to stay in the NBA despite injuring knee in work out at Golden State camp. Just what the NBA needs, another 6’6 power forward with limited offensive skills, with bad knees, who lacks mentally maturity. (Check K-State websites and blogs)

Sports Wagering Info, June 16 , at 3Daily Winners

In yesterday’s action, our System play and Free selection were both winners and for the first time a perfect trend was a loser this season. Today is a perfect example of what 3Daily Winners is all about, if we don’t something truly of value for our readers we’ll pass. There are a few decent systems, but nothing we would want our readers to wager on. Since we started this format, our System plays are 26-9, 74.2 percent for a reason, they are high quality. Today we have 85 percent winning trend and we go for two straight free winning selections. Good Luck.

System -1) No high quality systems available for today.

Trend – 2) The Angels are 17-3 against the money line after having lost two of their last three games this season and have won these games by an average of 1.8 runs per game.

FREE Selection -3) Our Free Pick was a Winner on Detroit yesterday and the same sports bettor is on the L.A. Angels on Monday night.

A little wagering action on Father's Day

HAPPY FATHER’S DAY to you or your Dad. My father used to bring home parlay cards when I was a kid, which started my interest in numbers and trying to figure out how and what to play. Yesterday was great day to be a bookie, cleaning up in most areas. However, this is just one day and we have an outstanding System that has won 75.8 percent since beginning of 2006 MLB season. Our perfect Trend returns, let’s hope it stays that way. Our Free Play is from a professional bettor on a roll lately, cleaning up in all sports. Good Luck.

System -1) PLAY ON home teams ( Milwaukee in this case) when the money line is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher like Seth McClung ( 3-3, 4.57 ERA as starter),whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (NL) against opponent with a starting pitcher (Sam Baker) whose gives up 5.5 or less hits a start. This system is a delightful 44-14, 75.8 percent the last three seasons.

Trend – 2) TAMPA BAY is 16-0 against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -175 over the last two seasons.

FREE Selection -3) One of the fellows from the LCC, has won +15.65 units in the last three days wagering on a variety of sports and today has the Detroit Tigers as his play. Sunday home teams are amazing 103-48 this season.

NBA Finals – Now Betting for Grins and Giggles

It isn’t very often one historic event takes place in a sporting event and Thursday night, two such things occurred in the absolutely most unlikely of circumstances. The Los Angeles Lakers played what was essentially a perfect first quarter, building a 35-14 lead after the first 12 minutes of Game Four. This was the largest point differential ever after one quarter of basketball in the NBA Finals. For Lakers fans, and those having wagered the -7.5-points, if only you could have seen what was ahead.

Approximately two hours later in real time (as opposed to surreal time for L.A. and Boston fans) the Celtics pulled off the greatest comeback in Finals history, coming back from 24 points to defeat, deflate and harpoon the Lakers 97-92. This for-the-ages comeback will be what defines these Boston Celtics and shows what the Lakers 2007-08 lacked, heart and character.

As the years pass, people either hang on to the past or embrace what is happening today, conveniently forgetting what they already knew. Many people have recently talked about Kobe Bryant as being as good as or better than Michael Jordan, because he played spectacular all season long, has been coldly efficient in the playoffs and become more of a team player. However, in three of four games in this series, Bryant has not been up to M.J.’s standards. It should be noted, nobody on this Lakers roster looks anything like Scottie Pippen, which certainly plays a factor, but Bryant has been defended incredibly well, being contested like a pork chop to a group of hungry dogs.

Let’s not kid ourselves, this series is OVER. Whether the Lakers muster enough gumption to show any heart is unknown, but they are not going to beat a Boston team, that plays better defense, has greater desire and like a shark, smells the blood in the water now.

What’s fascinating is the Lakers have only themselves to blame. Starting in the second quarter, after moving the ball deftly for cuts to the basket and easy scores, they started getting full of themselves, as Kobe and others drove down the lane and kicked out to open shooters for three point attempts. While they made a number of these shots in the first 18 minutes, the Lakers started settling for them. This style of offense is fine if you are Steve Nash and Phoenix playing the Clippers; however the Celtics are the best defensive team in the league and started forcing turnovers on sloppy passes and made a few shots of their own.

Suddenly, the Lakers were putting up shots like Russian weightlifters, clanging everything and losing confidence faster than Barry Zito. Paul Pierce was dud in Game 3, but he was the man on both ends of the floor in Game Four. Pierce was Boston’s leading scorer, shutdown Bryant and was emotional leader. Ray Allen only sat during timeouts, playing all 48 minutes and Kevin Garnett ruled the 10 feet under both baskets in all directions the last 24 minutes.

Boston is a seven-point road underdog at most wagering, yet after covering the first four games of this series and having 9-1 ATS record as dog of 5-10 points, would it be wise to go against them? The C’s are up to 28-6 against the supposedly superior Western Conference this entire season, covering last 13 of 16 games played.

The Lakers have already talked about just focusing on Game Five and not worrying about the rest of the series. Those purple and gold backers will even point to the L.A. being 19-8 ATS revenging a home loss. Yet in MSNBC Keith Olberman mad guy commentary style, there is no debating the Lakers are now 0-8 ATS versus defensive teams with a defense percentage of 43 percent or less this season. Nor can one argue Phil Jackson’s team is down to 2-6 ATS in last eight as favorites.

Somewhere, Red Auerbach is getting ready to light another victory cigar.

Sports Wagering Info, June 14 , at 3Daily Winners

The winning continues at 3DW, with the System play and Free Pick delivering winners. In today’s action, the System play is an absolute dandy, with an 87 percent winning percentage and almost always a blowout. Check for THREE Free selections for those betting baseball and we’ll step out to Arena Football and submit a piping hot Trend. Good Luck.

System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Kansas City, with a money line of +150 or more, which are poor AL offensive team (4.2 or less runs a game) against a team like Arizona with a good bullpen (ERA of 3.75 or less), with the Royals pen (1.380 WHIP) falling within 1.350 to 1.450 range on the season. This has been a real beauty of a system, with 47-7 record, 87 percent winning percentage the last 11 years. Still not convinced, the average winning margin in these games has been gi-normous 3.3 runs per game.

Trend – 2) In Arena Football action, San Jose is 16-3 ATS vs. weak defenses giving up 52 or more points a game over the last two seasons.

FREE Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection consensus has had winners two days in a row and actually has three games all rated the same in MLB today. Those Free Plays are Milwaukee, Houston and Oakland.

Wagering on MLB teams facing Left-Handed Pitchers

Call them what you will, left-handed, lefty’s, port-siders, they disrupt the normal perspective of how a batter views a pitch being thrown at them. Every team in baseball has them, some as starters, likely a reliever or two and for whatever reason, they have a delivery that can give a hitter an uncomfortable 0 for 4. The word “crafty” is often associated with left-handed pitchers, who lack the burning fastball to retire batters and have to use guile and intelligence to get hitters out. You never hear this mentioned about a right-hander pitcher with the same skill set, like they are missing a certain gene their counterparts have been blessed with.

Though these pitchers from the left side are sometimes shrouded in mystery, it’s not like they can’t be beaten. In fact, a number like Jesse Orosco or Dan Plesac received paychecks way passed their prime, simply because they could retire a left-handed batter. Here is a look at the best and worst major league team against LH hurlers.

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim may not crush left-handed starters; however they get the best of them. On the year, the Angels are 13-3, totaling +9.6 units of profit. Truthfully, they don’t do anything special, scoring 3.9 runs per game (compared to season average of 4.2). They do hit for higher average at .271 (.256 vs all pitchers), yet somehow the Halos own pitchers throw better, allowing 2.8 RPG. It’s also intriguing to uncover, the Angels are the top Under team facing lefties at 12-3-1.

It would make sense a potent offensive club like the Boston Red Sox might touch home plate a few extra times versus southpaws. With the likes of Manny Ramirez, Kevin Youkilis, J.D. Drew and David Ortiz when healthy, they can lay the lumber to any lefty. Thus far in 2008, the Red Sox have been nearly perfect with 10-2 record, winning by better than three runs a game.

The Philadelphia Phillies are a more curious case battling left-handed hurlers. They have a 17-8 record, up +7.4 units, and the Philly lineup in not affected seeing these types of pitchers. What’s interesting is their top two everyday players, as far as batting average is concerned, hit from the left side of the box. Chase Utley and 3B Greg Dobbs bat lefty and though he’s scuffling, Ryan Howard is another big bat that does damage. The Phillies are second in the big leagues scoring runs (6.4) against Corrie Pawed (Scottish term) pitchers.

This is primarily a function of being a bad baseball team, but the Seattle Mariners are sickening 4-12 vs. port-siders, dropping -10 units. Already owning the worst record in the bigs, they haven’t helped themselves at all against lefties, being outscored by 1.7 runs per outing. The Mariners are 27th in runs scored overall and with players like Richie Sexson, Jose Vidro and Adrian Beltre, all in season long slumps, the future is hardly bright no matter who they are facing.

Another punchless bunch is the Toronto Blue Jays. Against left-handed pitchers, the Blue Jays manufacture a baseball worst 3.3 runs per game. The 6-11 record has costed backers in these situations -7.7 units. The Toronto team batting average is fair, ranking seventh in the American League, it’s just they don’t string hits together explaining 12th position in runs scored in the junior circuit.

If by some chance you are headed to England, the northern part in particular, if you drop the term, Cuddy Wifter or Kack Handed, the locals will know exactly what you mean.

Betting Baseball Info, June 13 , at 3Daily Winners

Though we missed 3-0 on Wednesday just barely, 3Daily Winners got it yesterday and will go for backto-back days, starting with Free selection on the south side of Chicago. The Trend backs a team punishing lefty’s this season and the System play goes against the best team in the big leagues. Good Luck.

System -1) PLAY ON all favorites, like Toronto, with a money line of -110 or higher, with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL), after allowing three runs or less three straight games. This tantalizing system is 55-16, 77.4 percent and is coupled with another 2008 system that is 74 percent thus far.

Trend – 2) The L.A. Angles are 13-2 against the money line against left-handed starters this season.

FREE Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection has another consensus play, backing the Chicago White Sox.

Role Players are Betting Key in Game 4

The tape of Game Three of the NBA Finals between Boston and Los Angeles won’t be sent to the Basketball Hall of Fame, with a grand total of four players scoring in double figures and the total coming in 27.5-points below projected oddsmakers number. Nonetheless, the series picked up some juice with the Lakers winning, meaning everyone is able to stay the weekend in Los Angeles and maybe head down the coast and catch a little U.S. Open golf action. Kobe Bryant finally stepped up his game with 36 points and no way L.A. wins without the 20 from Sasha Vujacic. For Boston, this had to be mildly disheartening, Ray Allen is starting to place like the guy who wore a Seattle and Milwaukee uniform previously, but Paul Pierce managed to miss 14 of 16 shot attempts.

Before pressing on, this 2-3-2 format is proven how stupid it really is this season. ESPN’s John Barry was quoted after Game 3 (as was Phil Jackson) saying he thought it was a jet lag game. Neither team was sharp from flying cross country. Fair enough, then why will their be two games in this series played with two days of rest in the same city, with potentially another cross-country flight with just one day between the sports most important games?

Game Four of the series will be about who shows up to make a meaningful contribution. In the boxscore, Lamar Odom is listed as PF, commonly known as power forward and Vlad Radmanovic is shown as SF, a shooting forward. Odom has was once again a non-factor, shooting 2-9 and seldom in position to make positive plays, yet maybe in his case, the PF stands for personal fouls, since he picked up five again. Vlad Rad saw his minutes fall to 13, as his defensive deficiencies are visibly noticed and his lack of offense (3 points) can not overcome.

If the Lakers expect to improve upon 11-3-1 ATS record off a win, both of those players along with Pau Gasol and Derek Fisher have to play with more aplomb. Gasol has been as soft as a marshmallow in the middle, making his chest-thumping appear comical, when like an NFL cornerback burned six times in a row, jumps up to celebrate after he made a big hit on receiver 20 yards down the field. Coming into the Finals, it was thought Fisher’s experience would create an edge over the Celtics Rajon Rondo, it hasn’t. If the Lakers expect to make this a best two of three, the aforementioned four individuals have to bring their game and attitude to Staples Center for Los Angeles to win and move to 9-3 ATS as home favorites.

For all the good Rondo had done in Boston, he was discombobulated when Bryant started Game 3 guarding him. He was unable to get into the flow thereafter, before rolling is ankle, making him questionable for tonight. This becomes a real issue for the Celtics, since Rondo whole game is based on quickness and speed, without these traits, Sam Cassell and Eddie House are next options, suggesting these slow afoot, shoot-first point guards may see greater ball pressure from the Lakers, as well as double-teaming to force them to make snap judgments. Coach Doc Rivers will need to implore his back-ups to get the ball over half court quicker, since on average, the Celtics start their offensive sets just under three seconds slower when Rondo is not in the game in this series. How this trio plays tonight, will go a long way in determining what Boston’s 3-7 ATS road record will be after the game.

For the C’s to rebound in Game 4, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett can not play the same again. Pierce played like was pushing too hard, trying to prove to posse; he was California cool, while showing street toughness being back home on the big stage. Look for him to be more relaxed, after practicing a few gang signs. Boston is 29-12 against the spread on the road after playing as an underdog and Garnett personally let a golden opportunity slip thru his fingers. Garnett was 6-21, totaling 13 points. When he set up shop in or near the lane, the less athletic Gasol is rendered useless to stop him. When he drifted out on the perimeter as he often prefers to, coach Phil Jackson could have gotten Radmanovic more minutes.

When asked after Game 3 why he didn’t demand the ball more in the post, since the Celtics offense is more fluid, Garnett responded, "...Hell, if I knew that, I would have done it ... Obviously in the course of a game you try to mix things up ... but for the most part, I watched this game ... But you're right. I probably do need to take the ball to the basket a little more." Just think about how good he would have been playing with Michael Jordan as second fiddle.

As expected, a win by the favorite means the number goes down and the Lakers are 7.5-point favorites with Total having dipped to 191 every sportsbook. The Celtics have covered each contest in this series and are 8-1 ATS when underdogs in the 5-10 point range. Los Angeles has yet to cover versus the C’s in five tries this season.

Even with the total dropping, coach Rivers club is 14-6 UNDER as a road underdog this season, while L.A. is 16-4 UNDER after a win by six points or less this season.

Expect the stars to shine with tipoff set for 9:05 Eastern, since they will ultimately decide Game 4, however it will be the other players for both teams that will put these individuals in position to be adored.

Betting Baseball Info, June 12 , at 3Daily Winners

Just missed a perfect day, as Tim Lincecum did his job, but his Giants teammates failed to scratch across a run and Colorado won in the bottom of the ninth 1-0. On to today, we have a fantastic system that supports playing against a cold road pitcher; this winning system is a 77.1 percent winner. We have had such great success with Perfect Trends, we have another today. With so much early MLB action, we’ll supply FREE matinee selection and check back by 5:30 Eastern to look for another play. Good Luck.

System -1) PLAY ON home teams like Cleveland, with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season (AL) , against opponent with a cold starting pitcher (Twins Livan Hernandez 10.12 ERA, 2.250 WHIP) with WHIP of 2.000 or higher over his last three starts. This system has generated a 37-11, 77.1 winning record the last five seasons.

Trend – 2) The Boston Red Sox are 13-0 against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -200 this season.

FREE Selection -3) In afternoon action, the early LCC consensus is to take Detroit Tigers to sweep the White Sox.

Betting Baseball Info, June 11, at 3Daily Winners

Yesterday’s System was a Winner, but since when is playing against Seattle this year a bad idea. Today, we have pitcher throwing just awful, in a winning 74.5 percent system. We’re back with another Perfect Trend on the team with the best record in baseball and the Free Play comes from a bettor known as being modest with his plays and on a good roll presently. Good Luck.

System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Washington, with a money line of +100 or higher, allowing 4.8 or more runs a game (Nats at 4.9) on the season (NL), against opponent with a cold starting pitcher like Ian Snell (2-6, 5.65 ERA), who owns an ERA 7.00 of or his more in his last five starts. The logic here is a pitcher that has thrown this poorly is due an at least an average outing and his team should be able to support him with some runs. This situation is 38-13, 74.5 percent since the 2006 campaign.

Trend – 2) The Cubs are 12-0 against the money line in home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season.

FREE Selection -3) Max from the Left Coast Connection has picked up +8.65 units of late with his conservative style and is on San Francisco with Tim Lincecum as starter for Free play.

Betting Baseball Info, June 10, at 3Daily Winners

Florida’s amazing trend of playing Over, was winner yesterday here at 3Daily Winners. Tonight we have an American League team in a bad spot against division foe for Top Trend. The System is likely to bounce back, with a. 84.5 percent situation and one of the guys from the Left Coast Connection has a two-team parlay on tap in MLB action. Good Luck.

System -1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like Seattle, with a money line of +150 or more, a pathetic AL offensive team (4.2 runs or less runs a game), against a team like Toronto with a solid bullpen (3.33 or less ERA), while a bullpen like the Mariners has WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season. This system has generated serious cash with 49-9 record, good for +32.5 units.

Trend – 2) Detroit is 2-13 (-14.5 Units) against the money line off a loss to an AL Central rival as a favorite this season.

FREE Selection -3) One of the fellas from the LCC, prefers to play two-team parlays and has hit six of seven. He has a Windy City one to follow, taking the Cubs and White Sox. A hundred dollar wager pays out almost 2 to 1.

Are Lakers Really Good Bet in Game 3?

Remember being in pre-school or first grade or possibly with your children; playing games were you had to come up with answers to teachers questions? The idea was to you as a child or anyone, come up with a list of answers to individual questions. It could be a fascinating topic, often not thinking of the answers others would happen to think of. For example, if the question would be, what are things that are soft, thoughts like pillows, ice cream, and a rabbit come to mind or for more creative types, the sun setting on a placid lake. For this composite list of soft things, add the Los Angeles Lakers.

Bettors universally assumed the Lakers and Kobe Bryant in particular would be spitting venom in Game 2, and took Los Angeles from opening line of +2, all the way to -1.5 at tipoff. Instead, the Lakers were like a big dog asleep on his back. From the beginning of the second quarter, until the start of the last stanza, they were “out” every-thing(ed) by Boston. Out- shot, rebounded, passed, dunked, defended and most importantly out-hustled. The Celtics won the middle portion of the game 63-39, in dominating fashion.

Thou Paul Gasol’s numbers show 17 points and 10 rebounds, not one of those figures were critical and thus far it is obvious the Spaniard couldn’t box out a statue of John Quincy Adams. Evidently teams never ran a pick and roll, free throw line extended against the Memphis Grizzlies, since Gasol is alarming out of position, leaving the baseline wide open, explaining how Rajon Rando could have 16 assists in game two.

Boston has played like a team wanting a championship, bringing lunch pale and getting into defensive stance. They have double-teamed Bryant at every opportunity and not one other player in a purple uniform stepped up in first two contests. Lamar Odom has been out of position on both ends of the floor and is playing more confused than useful. If Los Angeles is not to fall to 8-19 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games, coach Phil Jackson has to find players who can match the C’s thirst for excellence.

After last contest, Jackson had to say something about free throw disparity (38-10) and though a more than a few calls were questionable, the referee’s are human and Boston was so much more aggressive, they earned the right to have the official’s benefit of the doubt. The Lakers made reserve Leon Powe look like the perfect replacement for Kevin Garnett in the future; as he scored 21 points, but did it with what L.A. lacked, hustle and heart. The Celtics are 28-12 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog.

In a somewhat curious twist, the oddsmakers are banking on bettors and Lakers backers to support Los Angeles as 9.5-point favorites, with total of 195.5. No doubt the Lakers 8-0 (6-2 ATS) playoff record at Staples Center is impressive; nonetheless, the Celtics have won and covered all four meetings between these long-time rivals and the first two games before Jan. 1, seems like a moot point at present.

For Los Angeles to get back into series, defense is number one prerequisite. They can’t be so easily out of position and must button down gaping holes and not run out to open shooters, leaving chasms to basket. L.A. is 9-3-1 ATS after allowing 100 points or more. The bench must have more production, especially by Luke Walton, who has been a no-show thus far in the Finals. The Lakers keep falling into Boston’s preferred tempo, and need to make them play more uncomfortably. Send four players to defensive glass and have perimeter player on opposite side of where shot was taken, be a mid-court first pass option to force tempo. Finally, show gumption, the feeling in viewing the body language of L.A. is they are surprised Boston is as physically and mentally tougher than San Antonio.

The two teams combined to make 19 three-point shots in last encounter and with the Celtics 9-14 beyond the arc; they are 13-2 ATS after a game where they made 50 percent of their three-point shots or better this season. Doc Rivers will ask for same energy and 48 minutes to take commanding 3-0. If they maintain poise, they’ll just have to do what guitar legend Eric Clapton wrote about from his Cream of Clapton CD, the song - Blues Power, where the lyrics say, “Keep on, keep on, keep on keeping on.”

Winning Wagers Requires Knowing Numbers

When betting on sports, relying on instinct will dry up your money almost as fast as a trip to the gas pump. In order win at these games, you MUST know your numbers, because rest assure, those setting the lines certainly do. If winning is really the goal, (for many, it’s just the action) proper understanding must be used to protect and enhance bankroll.

Having to deal with the ups and downs of sports betting can be an emotional challenge. When anyone is on a hot streak, most every wager makes sense, the lines look soft and the cash finds you, even when you sometimes don’t deserve it and are more lucky than good. Other times, we have felt like we’d miss the water falling out of boat, not being able to pick a winner for prolonged period. In these situations, we often place undo stress on ourselves trying to chase wins, instead of putting the numbers in our favor.

In sports like baseball, the opportunity is their everyday to wager. Frequently, a bettor could have a 0-5 day and felt the immediate need to make good the very next day with 5-0 record. With very rare exception, does this ever occur and typically, a gambler that is pressing for a win comes up a loser. Instead, try a practical approach. If you start 0-5, think of it as the start of a week, no matter what the actual day of the week is. Don’t chase, work harder to be back over .500 for a seven day period and in the black over the next six days. This alleviates the pressure of having to win now, and by the end of your “week”, you could have 10-8 record and up just a little, meaning you really accomplished something in the last six days, regaining the confidence to keep moving forward. Using this thought process can help you stay out of slumps, biding time until the next hot streak comes.

Another example of knowing numbers is what separates the good bettors from the ones who make the money. Every casual baseball bettor should know, Florida has been one of the best Totals plays most of the year. The sharp bettor is more in tune to the situation and has been riding the Marlins on their 14-0-2 OVER streak. This is useful information that builds wagering accounts swiftly.

Understanding the situation is key also. Despite being up over +15 units on betting baseball this season, I committed a fundamental mistake I wanted to share. Philadelphia has been really swinging the bats, scoring lots of runs and playing a number of games Over the total. On June 2, Phils starter Kyle Kendrick, despite a descent win/loss record, has an ERA of almost five and was facing Cincinnati’s Bronson Arroyo, who has an earned run average in the 5.50 range. The Reds, though less consistent on offense, had been scoring runs at a good rate and considering their bullpen is below average, believed the play was Over 10.5. When I later saw the final score totaled just nine runs, I realized I had left one very important piece of the puzzle out of my decision, which I actually knew about. Philadelphia has the best bullpen in baseball and after Kendrick had pitched about as expected in allowing four runs in 5 1/3 innings, the Phillies pen slammed the door the last 3 2/3 and never permitted a run. Knowing the numbers matters.

Even though it’s not until next Sunday, keep this figure in mind. Home teams playing on Sunday’s are 104-48, a 68.4 winning percentage and even more profitable and astounding 57-17, 77 percent, since the first Sunday in May. Being prepared to do battle with the books can give you a huge edge, if you know your numbers.

Betting Sports - Monday, June 9, 3Daily Winners

We get an early start on this Monday, on a System play that is sizzling 87.5 percent in afternoon action. Unfortunately, Mariano Rivera blew another tie game in the 9th inning against Kansas City and this time his Yankee teammates couldn't bail him out. The Trend play favors the hottest team on the Totals side and our Free Selection comes from a member of the Left Coast Connection who is on 10-3 run in all sports. Good Luck.

System -1) PLAY ON home favorites like the Yankees with a money line of -175 to -250, averaging an error or less every other game on the season, against opponent starting a pitcher like the Royals Luke Hochevar, who walked five or more hitters’ in last outing. This system is phenomenal 21-3, 87.5 percent the last three seasons.

Trend – 2) Florida is 10-1 OVER when playing against a marginal losing team (win percentage of 46 to 49 percent) this season.

FREE Selection -3) One of the fellas who prefers not to be known by identity, is on 10-3 run in all sports and suggests to play the Angels tonight.

Betting Sports - Sunday, June 8 at 3Daily Winners

Talked yesterday about going back to work and we certainly did with 3-0 record on Saturday. Our System play takes us right back to the South Side of Chicago with an 81.4 percent play. Another perfect Trend is available for your perusal and I’ll supply hopefully two FREE Winners, one on the diamond and one on the hardwood. Good Luck.

System -1) PLAY ON home favorites, like the White Sox with a money line of -110 or higher, who are swinging the bats to a batting average of .315 or better over their last five games, against opponent with a hot starting pitcher like Kevin Slowey (2-5, 0.952 WHIP), who has a WHIP 1.000 or less over his last three starts. This system has won 44 of last 54 times by an average of 2.1 runs per game.

Trend – 2) Tampa Bay is 10-0 against the money line after two straight games with two or more stolen bases since the beginning of 2007 season.

FREE Selection -3) Nailed down a Free Winner last night and go for three straight backing Boston in baseball and the Lakers in hoops.