CFB Pre-Season Magazines Add Intrigue

One of the joys of most anything in life is the anticipation of an event. You can take the time to be excited, prepare and look forward to what will be taking place. An annual right of summer is to gather the various college football magazines and go over the predictions from each conference. As a writer and handicapper, I have been pouring over data for months now and have strong feelings and opinions about how the various conferences races could play out. Part of winning in the fall in college football is having the information necessary to place yourself into a position to win. This is why I annually make pilgrimages to the various book stores to purchase all the magazines containing college football material.

The reason for doing has three distinct purposes. The first is I’m seeking information on the coaches and teams I may have missed in my own personal research. No matter how hard or far you dig, you will always find other useful nuggets. Next is learning about all the players, particularly the difference makers on each team, which is a powerful tool to understand if a team may be over or under-rated before the season starts. Lastly, just to see what other so-called experts think in making predictions. For example, why would a couple of magazines pick Memphis first in the Conference USA West Division, when three different ones have them finishing fourth? This is worth reading to understand why they would have such a difference of opinion and if points are valid or just baloney. Plus this allows one to find strong situations to place futures wagers at places like Sportsbook.com on particular teams.


Listed below is the accumulation of all the conferences and the teams ranked in order taking all the pre-season publications that were acquired, along with further analysis. Today we will at the ACC, Big East, MWC, Big 12, WAC, C-USA and Independents.

ACC -Atlantic
1)Clemson
2)Wake Forest
3)Florida State
4)Boston College
5)Maryland
6)NC State


ACC – Coastal
1)Virginia Tech
2)North Carolina
3)Miami-Fl
4)Georgia Tech
5)Virginia
6)Duke

Analysis- The perception of this league has taken a major hit, having last won a BCS bowl game in 1999, when Florida State won national championship. Clemson and Virginia Tech are unanimous choices to win respective divisions, though both have question marks coming into the season. The Hokies should have the easier time as only North Carolina is thought to be a team on the rise, with the others either unchanged of falling. Tommy Bowden’s Clemson club has the most talent, which has been the case in other years also, when they failed to meet expectations. Wake Forest has nine starters back on defense and QB Riley Skinner and will host Clemson in early October. With the improvement the Demon Deacons continue to make, they are becoming more of a play against team because of ill-suited favorite roles. Florida State and the rest of the teams in the Atlantic Division are treading water at best.

Big East
1)West Virginia
2)South Florida
3)Pittsburgh
4)Connecticut
5)Rutgers
6)Cincinnati
7)Louisville
8)Syracuse

Analysis- West Virginia is the accordant choice by everyone to be the BCS representative again in 2008. The Mountaineers lost talent on offense at skill positions, however, maintain in the areas that count most, with quarterback Pat White and four offensive linemen back. The defense will need some work with seven new starters, with program still carrying enough depth moving ahead. South Florida received every second place vote except one and is believed to be the only real competition for West Virginia, with outside chance to steal Big East crown if the ‘Teers don’t adjust to new coach Bill Stewart. Pittsburgh doesn’t gather a lot of support, since all they have done in the Dave Wannstedt era is underachieve. Connecticut brings back 17 starters, yet most don’t believe vanilla offense can offset a solid defense again. Louisville has fallen this far this quick, Yikes!

Mountain West
1)BYU
1)Utah
3)TCU
4)New Mexico
5)Wyoming
6)Air Force
7)San Diego State
8)Colorado State
9)UNLV

Analysis –BYU is prohibitive choice; yet not unanimous favorite to execute three-peat, being Mountain West champions. The Cougars have 10 starters back on offense, from one of the best in the country and are thinking BCS bowl as well. Games at Washington and home to UCLA will provide early answer about BCS prospects and conference road trips to TCU and rival Utah will provide the rest of the equation. Utah picked up a few first place and third place votes. The Utes receiving first place votes is somewhat predicated on hosting both BYU and TCU. The Horned Frogs should be just fine on offense, but have holes to fill in 4-2-5 base defense. Coach Rocky Long usually finds a way to earn a bowl berth and many feel this is Wyoming’s best chance for bowl in four years.

Big 12 North
1)Missouri
2)Kansas
3)Colorado
4)Nebraska
5)Kansas State
6)Iowa State

Big 12 South
1)Oklahoma
2)Texas
3)Texas Tech
4)Oklahoma State
5)Texas A&M
6)Baylor

Analysis – With apologies to Iowa State, the Big 12 should go down as the Year of the Quarterback in 2008. Pundits see a return engagement of Chase Daniel of Missouri and Sam Bradford of Oklahoma dueling for the conference title as division champions. Missouri has 10 starters returning on defense and almost every void filled on offense except running back. Kansas should be right behind the Tigers, in the North Division, yet doesn’t figure to pass them, receiving conference schedule upgrade, which includes Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech from the South. Colorado and Nebraska should be improved; it just won’t show up in the standings. The Texas offense will score points, nevertheless are on fourth straight new defensive coordinator in Will Muschamp, from a defense that allowed 35 points per game in last five outings. Texas Tech is slated for third, and has 36 players back from two-deep roster. Oklahoma State and Texas A&M are very close, with whatever defense plays better moving up.


WAC
1)Fresno State
2)Boise State
3)Nevada
4)Hawaii
5)Louisiana Tech
6)New Mexico St.
7)San Jose State
8)Idaho
9)Utah State

Analysis- Fresno State deserves credit for helping establish the WAC as legitimate league, playing excellent non-conference opponents tough and beating enough of them to be noticed. One missing piece for the Bulldogs has been winning WAC crown, since last sharing in 1999. They receive 70 percent of the votes this season and will have 16 talents starters returning for coach Pat Hill. To win, Bulldogs must avoid the game(s) they always mange to lose in conference. If Fresno State does slip, Boise State is expected to take their place, though recruiting efforts seem to have suffered. The Broncos do have most of the league contenders on the blue turf, however. Nevada is set to score points like usual and the fortunes of Hawaii will take a tumble.


Conference USA East Division
1)Central Florida
2)East Carolina
3)Memphis
4)So. Mississippi
5)Marshall
6)UAB

Conference USA West Division
1)Tulsa
2)Houston
3)UTEP
4)SMU
5)Tulane
6)Rice

Analysis- This conference has become largely irrelevant in the national scope, with its biggest showcase being its C-USA title game. This league has replaced the old WAC conference from 1962-1998, known for little defense and high scoring affairs. Tulsa was on every ballot to win the Western Division and Houston was on all but one to finish right behind the Hurricane. The Eastern side of the league is more convoluted. Memphis gathered the most first place votes and also the most fourth place votes, suggesting anything is possible for the Tigers team. Central Florida more or less won by default, having the same number of first place tallies as East Carolina, just more second place votes. Besides Tulsa, the only thing magazine writers agreed on was UAB will finish last in division.


Independents
1)Notre Dame
2)Navy
3)Army
4)Western Kentucky


Analysis- Depending on who is serving the kool-aid, Notre Dame will finish anywhere from 6-6 to 10-2. Ken Nuimatalolo wears the main head set after a decade under Paul Johnson guidance and will try to extend five consecutive Commander-in-Chief trophies and bowl game streak. Army’s going back to wishbone, essentially wasting the first year under coach Stan Brock. Western Kentucky has one warm-up season as independent before heading off to Sun Belt.

Tommorrow - Part 2

Free Baseball Plays on Sunday

The L.A. Dodgers bullpen cost us a 3-1 record on Saturday, but as we all know, things (fill in your own word) happen. Today we have awesome System that is sensational 87.1 percent since 2006. We actually revisit a Top Trend and it will look familiar. Mark from the Left Coast Connection has been on fire and is unloading with a monster baseball selection. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like the Pirates, with a money line of +175 to +250, where team's hitters draw three walks or less a game on the season, against opponent with a hot starting pitcher like Johan Santana, with a WHIP under 1.000 over his last five starts. This galvanic system is 34-5, 87.1 percent the last three years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Baltimore Orioles actually won a few weeks ago on this day; however are still 2-17 playing on Sunday’s.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Mark of the LCC has heated up like the Las Vegas August sun and is on 13-2 run in all sports. Today he has huge play on the Angels.

Free Baseball and NFL plays for Saturday

Our run line expert from the LCC has another Free play and we are offering a consensus selection in the NFL. The perfect Trend is back and has been nearly perfect all year hitting 12 of last 13. Though the top System lost yesterday, we uncovered an 80 percent play to consider today. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like the A’s with a money line of +100 or higher, who are bad AL offensive team scoring 4.2 or less runs a game, against a team with a good bullpen like Chicago (ERA of 3.75 or less), with a starting pitcher like John Danks who gives up 5.5 or less hits a start. This system is a tantalizing 20-5 since 2004.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The L.A. Dodgers are 11-0 against the money line in home games after two straight wins by two runs or less since 2006.

Free Selections -3) Our LCC run line expert goes for two straight here at 3Daily Winners, taking the Phillies -1.5 (+110). The consensus on the NFL tonight from the Left Coast Connection is to take Denver minus the points.

Betting on College Football Coaches Records

Slowly but surely college football is creeping up, with the games about to start in less than two weeks. All are armed with hopes of a successful football campaign, based on whatever standards have been set at each university. Coaches after a long off season, are fired up to put together teams, access talent and see what players worked hard to improve for upcoming season. For those that love to wager on college football, it comes in handy to know what particular coaches do when placed in certain circumstances. Most bettors might know how the head coach does where they live, or even the coaches within the nearby conference. Only a very select few would be able to recall all the different variables from all the head coaches at the Football Bowl Subdivision.

Here is a breakdown of the top coaches in several areas based on latest runs. (Smart idea to save this article for future use)

Coaches with best home ATS records-

Frank Solich – Ohio U -10-4
Tom Amstutz-Toledo – 25-11
Al Groh – Virginia - 28-14
Kirk Ferentz – Iowa – 36-19
Randy Edsall -UConn- 23-13

Percentage wise, Frank Beamer doesn’t rank as high, nevertheless he made a number of bettors big money, even overcoming large favorite roles at 62-46 ATS. A few other big name coaches standout, more for mediocrity. Phil Fuller is 47-49 ATS at Knoxville and Jeff Tedford is mere 17-18 ATS with the tree-huggers at Berkeley. Charlie Weis of Notre Dame is a lousy 7-13 ATS at South Bend.

Coaches with best road ATS records-

Skip Holtz – ECU- 15-5
Steve Spurrier – So. Carolina – 11-5
Mark Richt –Georgia – 28-16
Charlie Weatherbie – UL-Monroe – 22-13
Pete Carroll –USC – 28-19

Mike Belotti of Oregon deserves mention at 43-32 ATS, as does Jim Grobe at Wake Forest, as his squads have made life miserable for home teams with 25-16 ATS mark. UNLV is going nowhere unless they start winning real soon and coach Mike Sanford’s clubs are 3-14 ATS on the road. Marshall’s Mark Snyder team has not been a Thundering Herd as a visitor, with 4-12 ATS record. While Toledo’s Amstutz may have great spread home marks, they are pushovers on the road at 16-29 against the spread.

Coaches with best favorite ATS records-

Dick Tomey –S.J. State - 8-1
Mark Mangini – Kansas – 20-7
Chris Ault- Nevada – 18-8
Randy Edsall – UConn- 19-11
Bronco Mendenhall – BYU- 17-9

Half the reason Tommy Bowden is under fire so much is 29-39 ATS record when listed as favorite, as backers lose money with great regularity. Mike Price was loved when he arrived at UTEP; however the price has not been right when backing the Miners as faves with 9-16 ATS record. Cal’s Tedford has covered just 26 of 54 of these roles and Grobe of the Demon Deacons is poor chalk coach at 13-22 ATS.

Coaches with best underdog ATS records-

Skip Holtz – ECU- 17-5
Mike Price – UTEP -13-6
Bob Stoops – Oklahoma- 12-6
Jim Grobe – Wake Forest – 30-15
Tommy Tuberville –Auburn- 22-14

Why so many that wager prefer underdogs are how certain teams play in these situations. Clemson with Bowden at the helm is 23-15 ATS and Pat Hill of Fresno State (34-22 ATS) made his reputation as being an underdog coach, winning numerous times outright against bigger name schools. The Ducks under Bellotti have taken flight with 33-21 spread mark as dogs. Mr. Mike “I’m a man!” Gundy has had Oklahoma State take on girlie-man appearances with 7-12 ATS record as underdogs.

With college football adding a 12th game to the schedule, the number of weeks with rest has been cut. Even so, some coaches know how to manipulate rest to teams advantage, while others don’t have a clue.

Best coaches with rest ATS records-

Mike Riley - Oregon State – 11-3
Pete Carroll- USC -17-5
Mark Mangino- Kansas – 7-2
Rich Brooks – Kentucky – 7-3
Mark Richt – Georgia – 13-5

Worst coaches with rest ATS records-

Gregg Brandon – Bowling Green -1-8
Jim Grobe – WF- 3-8
Larry Blakeney –Troy- 3-8
Mike Leach – Texas Tech – 5-9
Tommy Bowden – Clemson 6-13

Coaches on notable ATS streaks-

Les Miles of LSU is 11-1 ATS versus non-conference opponents.
Turner Gill of Buffalo is 10-2 ATS when matched against team with below .500.
Rocky Long of New Mexico is 11-0 ATS with rest against Mountain West Conference foes.
Tommy West of Memphis is 2-10 ATS as home favorite facing non-conference opponents.
Urban Meyer of Florida is 0-7 ATS on the road after winning two games straight up.
Al Groh of Virginia is 0-15 ATS on the road off a win and cover.

Record Update at 3DW

With so many new viewers, thought I’d update records for all to see and let everyone understand the value of this blog since we started.

System Plays -48-24, 66.7 percent
Top Trends -43-31, 58.1 percent
Free Plays – 52-38, 57.7 percent

We are 8th at Cappers Watchdog (see banner add for details) in MLB since joining and 7th in NFL Preseason. We are 4th at Free Sports Monitor in NFLX and 7th in Free baseball picks at The Sports Eye.

Behind the scenes the Left Coast Connection consensus plays are amazing 86-40, 68.2 percent and have occasionally been on this blog during baseball season. You will be able to purchase them here once college and pro football start for real, at very low price.

Free Plays Back at 3Daily Winners

One last apology on not being able to supply plays, thus we pick up from here. Today we have system that is 86 percent winner over last 11 years and involves the Yankees. Top Trend is a beauty and talks about how Boston fairs in unique spot. Today Free Play is from LCC run line specialist and can be a way to reduce juice and still win. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON home favorites like the Yankees with a money line of -175 to -250, who are excellent fielding team, averaging an error every other game on the season, against opponent with a starting pitcher like Gil Meche, who walked five or more hitter’s last outing. This fairly complex system is rewarding 43-7, 86 percent since 1997. (Thanks StatFox)

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Boston Red Sox are 15-2 against the money line in home games vs. terrible power-hitting teams - averaging three or less home runs every four games this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) One of the Left Coast Connection members is a run line player exclusively and is on Minnesota at -1.5 (-130)

Bonus System – Talked all year about teams with 10 or more hits in three straight games and playing against them on the road in next contest. Record to date of these teams is 31-52, -18.55 units and the Cubs, Arizona and Baltimore all fit this system tonight.

Like Aerosmith - Back in the Saddle Again

Hello again everyone, sorry for the undistinguished message above. I have an older laptop I use when I’m one the road and thought I could use no problem to keep up with writing this blog and other things. This turned out not to be true as the laptop or WiFi at the hotels were not a good match and I was powerless to do anything about. If I had known this would have occurred, would have informed everybody about what I was doing. Again sorry, it won’t happen again. Besides vacation time is officially all used up.

Myself and a friend ventured to SoCal to take a baseball vacation. This fine fellow, like me is sports nut and enjoys traveling around seeking new adventures, like visiting baseball stadiums. Here is what we saw.

Day One and Two

Arrived in Los Angeles and stayed not far from Universal Studios. They have this City Walk area that is a lot of fun and we sauntered around there for awhile soaking up the ambience and a few other things. Took him to the dark side, where there is a Raiders football store. That’s right, nothing but Raiders merchandise, black and silver everything, including Al Davis pictures wearing the same warm-up suit through the decades.(Not actually true)

Went down Sunset Strip and saw famous places like the Laugh Factory and Whiskey-A-GoGo and all the people sitting outside eating dinner at 10:00 PM. For Midwesterners, this is a REAL different lifestyle.

Next day went to world famous Santa Monica Pier and drove north to Malibu, eventually stopping at Duke’s, a great spot, literally right on the ocean for eats and drinks. (Overheard this was the place Mel Gibson last was before DUI arrest)

Went to Phillies at Dodgers game. Maybe is was the travel, but Philadelphia was flatter than the rolled out Santa Monica beach, with horrible body language throughout the game, players walking around acting like they didn’t care. Shortstop Jimmy Rollins waved at more than one ground ball and covered second base on steal attempts like am eight-grader, instead of an All-Star. The Dodgers white uniforms are even more striking in person, equally as white as any Hollywood starlet having teeth whiten for that full mouth smile.

Dodger Stadium is big, with multiple decks and very good sight lines. The parking lots are gi-normous (biggest in baseball) and yes they are a late arriving crowd. A good experience, but we both agreed not great, as first-times to Chavez Ravine.

Day Three

Traveled south to Venice Beach and walked by all the shops and sites this area had to offer. This is a must stop for any visitor to the area. My friend Chip (not real name) and I both agreed if anyone would want to drop out of sight and likely never be seen again, you don’t have to leave the country, just blend in to the counter-culture of Venice Beach and you will NEVER be heard from again. There is a number of INTERESTING characters masquerading as retailers and performance artists. One fellow caught our eye with this catching tune, “Have a Merry Happy Christmas, since I’ll be drunk all day.” Surprised he doesn’t have record deal yet being in L.A. area. Long Beach area is must see, having plenty of cool areas to visit along the waterfront.

Having been to the Big A in Anaheim previously, I knew it was pretty sharp ball yard, though older. Chip (once again not real name) was immediately struck how the fans are dressed like going to football game. We guesstimated 75 percent of the people walking into the Stadium were wearing Angels gear. Of course, we saw the source of this affection, as the Angels gift shop, which might be 1000 square feet, had eight checkouts humming with people buying Halos merchandise. No recession here. Granted having the best baseball team in 2008 certainly helps, but this place was rockin’ as fans really get into the game. The Angels took three over the wall and beat sorry Seattle.

Note to owner Artie Moreno- Artie we loved what you have done to make this a beacon of baseball, but please paint the Big A structure outside the stadium, the paint is so faded it looks like a 1960 Chevy El Camino. Went to Hooters after the game, the food, drinks and women, not good.

Day Four

Headed south, with San Diego next destination. Drove along Pacific Coast Highway, seeing all the surfer dudes in the water waiting for waves. Went to La Jolla to view The Cove and ended up walking about the equivalent of 15 miles, (bad parking spot on my part and modest exaggeration) and had lunch downtown. Went to Coronado Island to take in Hotel Del and sit by the ocean again, in incredibly relaxing area.

Left there to take in Petco Park and what a unique place. Built in the downtown waterfront district, the Padres home is a wonderful and unique modern park. Children’s sand play area and benches for fans in right-centerfield, this place is loaded with features we both have never seen. Perfectly blending the local landscape with modern touches, this place is awesome. If you are in the San Diego area in the summer time, definitely a must see facility. The Padres stink, lacking talent at most positions on the field.

This explains what I did and where I was. One more thing to cover, never ask somebody what their favorite college uniform is, it’s often conversation killer. I asked my friend and he responded with Penn State. The only comeback for that response is to change the subject. Next I asked him what his favorite kind of vanilla ice cream was.

Back in the saddle for the rest of baseball and football.

Sorry wish I could make it work.

I am sorry. There won't be any free selection until Friday. My laptop is not able to get a strong internet connection.

Strong MLB System and Trend for Sunday

Yesterday was one of those days, had a weird feeling while placing this information that it might not be a great day. This turned out to be true with 0-2 record. Today feel much better, starting with a MLB System that is a high quality 84.7 percent winner. The Top Trend heads to the Brew City with useful tip about Milwaukee and Paul Buck has been on good run, winning 13 of his last 17 selections. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more like Atlanta, who average less than a home run a game, against a starting pitcher like Brandon Webb, who gives up less than a home run every other start, after five straight games where they stranded seven or less runners on base. This system is a sultry 50-9 since O.J. Simpson was found liable in civil court for the death of Ron Goldman and for the battery of Nicole Brown Simpson.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Milwaukee is 22-3 against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck has been on a nice streak of 13-4 and is backing Cincinnati to finally wake up and nab a win against Houston.

Sports Selections on August 9 from 3Daily Winners

As KC and the Sunshine Band used to say, “That’s the way we like it” after another 3-0 day here at 3DW. Our last 34 plays are now 26-8, 76.4 percent. Atlanta has beaten Arizona twice in their series; today’s Top Trend looks at if they can do it again. The LCC was correct on the Dodgers last night and has another consensus selection. No great systems in baseball, thus have unofficial one to ponder in the NFL. Good Luck.

Free Football System -1) PLAY UNDER on any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points in the first two weeks of the NFL Preseason. Teams that fit are Indy, Dallas and Washington. This system is 44-14, 72.4 percent. Please note this will not be official system play.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Atlanta is 1-12 against the money line in road games after a win by four runs or more this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection has seven bettors on the Chicago Cubs today and not a soul on the Cardinals.

Free Baseball Selections at 3Daily Winners

It’s been awhile, but it was due to happen, we finally had a losing 1-2 day. The Top Trend lost for the first time in eight days and comes back with perfect angle, which have hit nine of ten. A top notch System has several variables, with the day of the week being one of them and has won over 84 percent of the time. The Left Coast Connection has supplied many consensus winners as Free plays and has another. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST home underdogs, like Seattle with a money line of +125 to +175, who are below average AL hitting team (.265 or lower BA) against a team with a good bullpen like Tampa Bay, with an ERA under 3.75, playing on Friday. This system is ruthless 39-7, 84.8 percent the last 11 years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Minnesota is 12-0 (+13.9 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .393 or better over their last three games this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection has eight members on the Dodgers with nary a soul backing the Giants. Like yesterday, divided opinions on the NFL tonight.

Broadway Brett affecting NFL

The Brett Favre soap opera has come to a conclusion and it couldn’t end soon enough for most people. The Green Bay Packers have traded Farve to the Jets for a conditional fourth round pick that should at the very least be a second round selection. Unfortunately, this will be play out longer in Wisconsin than most of the new shows that will be debuting on the various television networks this fall. This whole circumstance could have been avoided if Favre and the Green Bay Packers had acted like smart business people, interested in win-win scenario, instead of narcissistic individuals, playing to the crowd. This whole mess will end up having an impact on several teams, leading one to be cautious about making win total wagers.

Starting with Favre, his behavior off the field the several seasons has left a lot to be desired. The constant flip-flopping of retirement talk has made even boxers blush by comparison. In fact, its surprising Republicans haven’t come out and said Barack Obama is like Brett Favre, wavering on decisions.

Favre has given his all for the Green and Gold, no denying that, yet his constant off-field self-induced dramas has made him the butt of jokes. You have to ask yourself, why Favre would go on Fox’s Greta Van Susteren show. This is sports news, not national news in a traditional sense. Plus, calling out his employers, not feeling loved and wanted, despite making 12 million a year and having about 90 percent of the people in the state in your corner, no matter how many slip-ups over the years. Flying back to be at Lambeau Field for the team’s first official controlled scrimmage with Aaron Rodgers under center last Sunday, told everyone about how important Favre felt about his own shadow.

It’s not like the Green Bay front office is blame-less. General Manager Ted Thompson has never publicly stated any ill-will towards Favre, but has never gone out of this too praise him a great deal, more talking about the team in football-speak. His ridiculous stance of not wanting to Favre back is plain idiotic, since even if Favre were to play back to 2005-06 levels, he’s still in the top half of all starting quarterbacks in the NFL. Where do you or any other GM believes Aaron Rodgers ranks coming into 2008?

The sense you get is Thompson has done a good job rebuilding the Packers into a playoff team and he has fairly high opinion of himself for doing so. His Seattle days left more than a few feathers ruffled and he seems to have the full support of coach Mike McCarthy. This off-season, all of us have seen and heard more from McCarthy than any of his previous two seasons in Packer-land and it’s quite clear, he has his coach-speak down cold. The whole “80-man team” works well in July and August, but what about a divided locker after a few losses early in the season.

Kudos to Aaron Rodgers for being the best adult in the room. His situation was almost impossible after Favre retired, now with this, wow. If adversity determines the strength of a man, than Rodgers could probably win the gold medal for “clean and jerk” portion of the Beijing Olympics right today and the regular season is a month away. He’s done everything flawlessly off the field, however will be judged with greater scrutiny for what he does on the gridiron.

It is of note; the Packers have stayed at 9-1 odds to be NFC Super Bowl representative, however have been passed by Minnesota (5-1) and New Orleans (7-1) and tied by Philadelphia and Seattle as possible Super Bowl teams. Green Bay’s win total has also dropped from opening of Un9 to even money (-115 each side) at 8.5 wins at every sportsbook I could find.

Packer players have talked about being tired of all this talk about one man, who just recently became officially un-retired. What happens if the team gets off to slow start as Steve Makinen from StatFox.com wondered? “Opening Minnesota game has to be emotional on several levels, followed by a short week at sometimes challenging Detroit. Next is home game with Dallas. I’m not saying a 0-3 start will happen, but if it did, you could likely pull the plug on 2008 dreams.”

Tampa Bay figured to be the favorite all along, however something just didn’t click and will be determined in the days ahead. The New York Jets made plenty of noise in the off-season, with signings and now have made the play to knock the Giants off the front page of the sports section. A reasonable argument can be made that the Flyboys offensive skill players are every bit as good as the Packers with receiver Laveranues Coles and running back Thomas Jones leading the way. New York’s offensive line has to be considered above average with youthful talent blended with All-Pro free agent Alan Faneca. Sportsbooks across the world immediately pulled the Jets season total of wins and other long term projection odds. It would seem having the Flyboys at 7.5 or 8 wins, is looking a whole lot better today than on original purchase.

Minnesota thought they were seriously in the running, but underestimated Green Bay’s stubborn in keeping number four out of the division. The Vikings can say what they want, but having arguably the best offensive and defensive lines in the NFL, playing six games against Rodgers, Jon Kitna and T-Rex/Orton, would have made them feel pretty secure having the grey-speckled signal caller under center and improved their odds dramatically as NFC Central and NFC rep down in Tampa in February.

At this juncture, rehashing what should have occurred won’t change what did. Nonetheless, the miscalculations and ego-driven behavior will have direct impact on how the 2008 season will play out for all the teams involved in this fracas. It’s a sad day for Green Bay, but Broadway Brett is the new center of attention in the Big Apple.

Free Baseball Picks at 3Daily Winners

Hard to get too upset when a 2-1 day lowers your average, but that’s what has happened at 3Daily Winners, now a paltry (?) 22-6, 78.5 percent in last 28 Free Selections. Sal from the LCC has what he believes is another Free Winner out West. The Top Trends have won seven straight and looks at Rocky Mountain matchup. Super System play came up short and has intriguing play at 52-11 up today. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like the A’s with a money line of +100 or higher, who are poor AL offensive team scoring 4.2 runs a game or less against a team with a very good bullpen like Toronto (ERA of 3.33 or less), with a starting pitcher like Justin Duchscherer who gives up 5.5 or less hits a start. This scintillating system is 52-11, 82.5 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Washington is 3-13 in 2008 when Jason Bergmann is starting pitcher.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal’s tremendous baseball exploits continue after yesterday’s winner and he is on Arizona to rebound versus Atlanta. FYI- The Left Coast Connection members are all over the board on tonight’s NFL preseason games, thus nothing to report.

Free Picks back at 3Daily Winners

Back to deliver more winning information on 20-5 run, we’ve found a Super System that hits 80 percent right on the nose, on a large number of plays. Top Trend returns and it turns out to be one of those perfect, 100 percent angles. Sal from the LCC was hot in Vegas, will he continue, see below. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON All favorites like Arizona with a money line of -150 or more, having won two of their last three games and is marginal winning team (51% to 54%), playing a weak team (38 to 46%) like Pittsburgh. This play comes up fairly frequently on the last five years with 140 plays, winning an astonishing 112 times. Reasoning is based on two teams not that far apart in terms of record, have a significant money line differential, suggesting reasons why a slightly above average team would be such a large favorite.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Minnesota is 11-0 against the money line with an on base percentage of .393 or better over their last three games this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal off a number of winners in Las Vegas, is playing the White Sox to win as Free pick here.

Back from Vegas

After little sleep, too many adult beverages, it’s back to reality. No doubt things are quieter these days in Sin City. The economy has had an impact, even in Las Vegas. Many more food deals, tons more one and two-cent slot machines and happy hours in most places we ventured. Normally craps is very good to me, however, only found one really hot table and came up a little short overall. I’d never played Let it Ride before, but Sal convinced me to try it and generally thought it was a pretty solid game and won a little. One of the guys pounded a five-team baseball parlay and hit it, wagering on Washington, Cincy, Arizona, Cleveland and Angels on Monday. Thou not something I would do, props to him on fantastic 29-1 payout. This was legit, since I saw the ticket.

Speaking of legit went and saw Carrot Top. The guy was hilarious with all his props and kept the jokes coming rabid fire. Everyone agreed, best stand-up they had seen in sometime. Went to Hawaiian Tropic restaurant after seeing something on the Travel Channel (yes, other things in life besides just sports, just not many) about this place. Despite girls walking around in bikini-tops and short cover-ups, no way to hide bad food. Calamari was the worst I’ve had in years and everyone agreed this place was pretty bad. Girls – Yes, Food – NO!

Mandalay Bay put in new bar called Eye-Candy, you can figure out the rest. The Palazzo is newer joint, next to the Venetian and though nice, didn’t grab anybody. Took my car out to Red Rock Hotel since nobody had been their besides me, everyone very impressed and quite a bit of action, being 15-20 minutes from The Strip.

Looking forward to getting back into routine, at least for a few days, more on that later.

Be Smart in Betting NFL Pre-Season

Many professional bettors and those that wager significant amounts of money on NFL football have differing opinions on this topic. There are those that see this as a real opportunity to build up a bankroll, taking advantage of lines they consider weak, especially totals. Others take the opposite approach and are extremely selective or pass all together, with too many variables that come into place which do not give them the advantage they are used to holding. While nobody is right or wrong based on personal taste, there are definitely wise precautions to take and enhance your position and make additional cash.

Never bet just to bet

One of the gentlemen from Las Vegas I spoke to said, “They line up at the windows like salivating dogs, dying to place that first football wager. I sit back and laugh my ass off watchin’ those fools so damn anxious to give away their money.” His point is well taken, the first couple of games are not necessarily the best games to bet on, be selective.

Know coaching tendencies

This is big, since August NFL football is completely different from the regular season. Coach like Tony Dungy of Indianapolis uses this month to prepare team for the regular season, not to win games. He plays it more vanilla than his public persona and the Colts play accordingly with 3-10 ATS record in last 13 outings. No matter whom the coach is; Dallas is another team that doesn’t place much stock in winning and is 16-29-2 ATS as a favorite in the preseason.

Other coaches want to establish a winning atmosphere from day one. Bill Belichick is one such coach and he is 7-0-1 ATS in week 1. Denver, with Mike Shanahan and all the coaches that came before him have wanted to win from the get-go and are 22-6 ATS for that first preseason game. The Broncos don’t mess around either off a loss, being 12-2-1 ATS if they were beaten as a favorite.

First year coaches and those feeling the pressure of poor previous seasons, will turn up the heat on players and demand immediate results to let the players know who is in charge or things have to change in order to have greater success. These head coaches want more of a sense of urgency.

Seek the right spot to find winners

Sal from the Left Coast Connection said this, “You’ll find plenty of gold backing teams winning or losing by 12 or more points. When teams win big, coaches will play nice to keep the players happy and they’re often unmotivated in next game, love to play against those teams. Conversely, a team plays badly, the head coach will become a lunatic and the players will go out and beat the crap out of next opponent just to shut the coach up.” Great example of this last August was Baltimore destroyed Philadelphia 29-3 at home as three-point favorites. The next contest, still playing at home, they were out-rushed 182-75 by the New York Giants and lost 13-12 as field goal favorites.

Look for bad scheduling spots

Last season the Green Bay Packers dismantled Seattle 48-13 on a Saturday in the second week of the preseason. The so-called all important third game is thought to be the dress rehearsal for the regular season, however the Pack had to come back just five days later to play Jacksonville in a nationally televised encounter and were defeated 21-13, as coach Mike McCarthy decided to not play regulars as much and word leaked out. Green Bay went from a 2.5-point favorite to three-point home underdog.

Read various team pages

As opposed to the regular season, when every coach become more tight-lipped then Teller (the guy that doesn’t talk) of Penn and Teller, coaches will openly discuss with the media their plans from game to game and provide information that provides insights to all the teams. Pick your favorite site and read up. One Vegas insider confided, “I wouldn’t bet a nickel unless I knew what the coach was thinking (in the preseason).”

Understand money management

Nobody will get rich betting NFL football this time of year, however serious damage could be done to a bankroll by being foolhardy trying to cash in. Set strict limits on each wager and NEVER deviate. Take your winnings into the regular season to have more to work with, instead of foolishly doubling down on a streak of good luck.

3Daily Winners take Time-Out

The 3Daily Winners crew is heading to Vegas to hit the tables and have a LITTLE FUN. No plays for Sunday for sure, Monday is very possible. Based on Monday night's plans, forget Tuesday, back in the saddle on Wednesday, hopefully with thicker wallets.

Good Luck to all of you.

Free Baseball Selections on Major Roll

You have to admit, this is fun getting Free Plays that are on 18-4 run, including 3-0yesterday. If you liked Friday’s Top System, you will love today’s with 42-5 record. Paul Buck, chief handicapper at 3DW is burning up the base paths and has another Free pick. Top Trends have been hotter than then Bullhead City, AZ and feature Boston. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON all favorites like Milwaukee, with a money line of -175 to -250, with a rested bullpen, that has thrown two innings or less in each of the last two games against opponent after a game where the bullpen threw six or more innings. This unique system is 42-5, 89.4 percent in last 11 years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Pitcher John Lester and Boston are 14-2 in the second half of the season in his career.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck has been smokin’, hitting seven of his last nine MLB plays and is on Minnesota again to scalp the Tribe as his Free Play.

Free Baseball Selections, with Awesome System

Another winning 2-1 day has 3Daily Winners on nice 15-4 run. Today’s Top System is a remarkable 84.4 percent and must be considered. Will the Dodgers bounce back off 2-1 at home to Arizona, read the Top Trend for insight. Paul Buck returns with one his best plays of the day. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON home favorites like Tampa Bay with a money line of -175 to -250, with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL), after allowing two runs or less. This awesome system is 60-11, 84.4 percent. The average differential in these games has been +2.7 runs, plus you have to like the fact the Rays are 40-16 at The Trop.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Los Angeles Dodgers are 3-10 after a one run loss.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck has hit four of his last six MLB plays and is on Minnesota to maul Cleveland as his Free Play.

Free Baseball Selections at 3Daily Winners

After yesterday’s perfect 3-0 day, the 3Daily Winners plays are 13-3 since last Saturday. The LLC has another consensus Free play looking for two in a row. The Top Trends keep winning and showcase the big battle out West in the National League. Top System play takes a look at final White Sox and Twins matchup, with 80+ percent play. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like the White Sox with a money line of +100 or higher, starting a pitcher like John Danks who did not walk a hitter in last outing (six innings), with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 15 games. This system perks up bettor’s days being 37-9 record, 80.4 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Brandon Webb and Arizona are 11-2 in NL West road contests.

Free Baseball Selection -3) After being correct yesterday, five members of the Left Coast Connection have Cardinals as Best Bet, with nobody supporting Atlanta.

2008 Indianapolis Colts Preview

Even off of last year’s stunning playoff loss to San Diego, plenty of excitement abounds the Colts facilities this season. The opening of Lucas Oil Stadium has the town buzzing and Indianapolis did not suffer many casualties to free agency. The Colts ended up allowing the fewest points in the league (16.4 PPG), but the omnipresent pass rush was curtailed when Dwight Freeney went down. The return to health of Freeney and others should have the Colts back on course.

With Peyton Manning, the “other Manning” these days, he’s been freed to work on improving himself and showing the patience he occasionally lacked last season. This situation took a bit of a U-turn when Manning had to have what essentially was emergency surgery on his knee, due to infection, which had suddenly caused him pain in early July. While playing in one of the Colts' final two preseason games remains a possibility, Manning's primary goal is to be fully prepared for the Sept. 7 season and home opener against the Chicago Bears.

Marvin Harrison has looked good thus far in camp, with no noticeable limp and the more familiar explosiveness Colts fans are used to. Manning learned to play without Harrison the second half of the season and no longer needs him as security blanket. Peyton still led an offense that was third in points scored (28.1), fifth in total offense (358.7 YPG) and number one in third down conversion at 49.3 percent. It’s hard to find much fault, as long as Bill Polian and Tony Dungy are in charge.

There is a very good reason why Indianapolis has been as good as they have without a decline. GM Bill Polian and head coach Tony Dungy live in the present, always thinking about the future. The Colts lost G Jake Scott and back-up TE Ben Utecht, yet was able to keep every other player they needed. The offense line, though still strong, was given full attention, with three picks used. Arizona State’s Mike Pollack was chosen first and Remington runner-up, C Steve Justice was chosen in sixth round. Pollack is already showing promise, sharing playing time early in camp with vet Charlie Johnson at right guard for the departed Scott. The Colts M.O. has been to choose versatile linemen who can play more than one position and ultimately excel at one, once they find their niche. Tough Mike Hart of Michigan will compete for carries behind Joe Addai and bring winning attitude to the club. Adding outside linebackers Marcus Howard and Philip Wheeler means more speed from players that look like a good fit for Dungy’s defensive system. The beat goes on in Indy.

2008 Outlook- The expression, “luck is a residue of design” embarks what Indianapolis Colts are all about. GM Polian has carefully crafted a roster in harmony to his and coach Dungy’s preferences. Though the Colts are heavily wagered upon, they have still managed to be 15-10-1 ATS on the road the last three years. Indianapolis has the NFL’s second toughest schedule, yet nothing to fret; they just keep putting up “W’s” and head off all challengers. The Colts at 4-1, is quality wager to win the AFC. Even with the teams in the division improving and rugged slate of games, you either bet Indianapolis to go Over 11 wins at wagering outlets or pass.

Free Baseball Winners at 3Daily Winners

A 2-1Tuesday, with System and Trend plays coming up Winners. Today’s Top System goes right back to Texas, with 79.1 winning percentage. With Atlanta crying “uncle”, the Top Trend assesses their chances against the Redbirds. The Free Play in a consensus selection from the Left Coast Connection. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON home favorites with a money line of -150 or more like Texas, a good offensive team scoring 5.2 or more runs a game on the season (AL), after a combined score of 15 runs or more. This system is sultry 57-15, 79.1 percent since 2006 and average winning margin is 2.5 runs per game.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Atlanta is 4-16 with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 15 games over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Six members of the Left Coast Connection have Arizona as Best Bet, with nobody backing San Diego.

Free Baseball Selections from 3Daily Winners

Our Top Trend was yet again a winner for a 1-1 day at 3DW. A new member of the LCC has started well in hitting 75 percent of his plays and he’s focused on Tampa Bay and Toronto matchup as his top selection. The Top Trend is back, with another 100 percent perfect angle, which has won nine of last 10. Today’s Top System is in the American League and is 85.7 Winner the last three seasons. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON home favorites, like Texas with money line of -110 or higher, with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season, against opponent with a starting pitcher like Carlos Silva (4-12, 5.62 ERA), whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season (AL). Since 2006, this has been killer system at 18-3, 85.7 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Milwaukee is 9-0 OVER when the total is 7.5 or less.

Free Baseball Selection -3) A newer member of the Left Coast Connection has gotten off to a good start with 6-2 record and he has Toronto as his best play tonight. (All Free Plays are 80-37, since this blog started.)

Free Baseball Plays at 3Daily Winners

The L.A. Angels prevented another perfect day, instead settled for just 3-1. (We know that’s good) In the National League, one dominant pitcher tries to extend streak in our Top Trend, while the Free Play in taking place in the Bronx. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) No truly valuable systems going today. Since we started this blog, System plays are 40-23.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Houston’s Roy Oswalt is 19-1 against Cincinnati lifetime.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Slick Rick is back from the Left Coast Connection and is on the New York Yankees to extend home winning streak to 11 games.

Random Thoughts for a Sunday

Been another hectic week, trying to get everything in place with upcoming football season. Went to Cubs and Arizona game, this past Wednesday, in which Chicago won 10-6. The funniest aspect of the night was when Reed Johnson hit grand slam home run to put the Cubs up 10-3, you would have sworn every D-Backs fan in attendance just was text-messaged their car was on fire in the parking lot. I've never seen so many people leave a sporting event at one time before the game was over. Hilarious.

Yesterday our Top System play had Philadelphia and it is now 30-1. Truth is, it was a function of luck and skill. Cole Hamels and other Phillies pitchers were lit for nine runs in the four inning and Atlanta led 9-3. In the bottom of the fifth, Philly scored seven runs to take a 10-9 lead and hung on to win by that exact score. What's interesting about the final score, is this was the 14th one run road loss (0-14 this season) for the Bravos and they lost 20 in a row dating back to August 10, 2007. That reminds of Seattle Mariners some years ago, who went seven games without back-to-back hits.

This whole Brett Favre thing has become about as interesting at a Britney Spears story. Like I said and I heard Mel Kiper Jr. even say (for what that's worth), Favre reports to camp, declares he wants to compete for job and if he beats out Rodgers fair and square, no beefs and if other teams have injuries to starting QB's in preseason, Green Bay has leverage to make trade. Packers asking (wanting?) for 1st round pick is stupid, no team other than Oakland would be dumb.

Does anyone know what's going on with the Cleveland Indians? One game away from the World Series last October and now are willing to deal almost any player for remastered CD's of Emerson, Lake and Palmer (for those that don't get this, think of commercial that have song "Welcome back my friends to the show that never ends") or Blackfoot!

With the new term- Bucket List- working on one of mine this week, after all these years, going to CrueFest to see Motley Crue. Can't wait.

Free Baseball Plays and more at 3Daily Winners

Those 3-0 days are always a welcome sight at 3Daily Winners, let’s go get some more. Top System takes us over to Oakland and has been right on the money with 79.9 percent Winners. Review today’s top Trend to see if Colorado should sweep Cincy. Kendall goes for three Free Winners in a row, will he do it? Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Texas with a money line of +100 or higher, starting a pitcher like Eric Hurley who gave up one or less earned runs last outing (one run, 5 2/3 innings) against opponent with a cold starting pitcher like Dana Eveland, who has WHIP 2.000 or higher over his last three starts. One again this follows baseball betting logic, If Hurley and the hot-hitting Rangers were really believable, oddsmakers would make them a favorite in this spot. This system is 49-13, 79.9 percent the last five years and Texas is 13-23 against lefties.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Colorado is 16-2 after allowing two runs or less in BB games.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Kendall of the Left Coast Connection is in 11-4 run +8.95 units in baseball and is going right back to backing the Los Angeles Angels for a third straight time, expecting the sweep. I’d like to add, I’m playing San Jose +4 in ArenaBowl title game today. The LCC is 9-8 Philadelphia on this game for those interested. Nobody has this as big play.

Free Baseball Plays at 3Daily Winners

A steady as it goes 2-1 Friday. Today we have what might be the best System play we have found all year, at least record wise, amazing. Kendall of the LCC was on the money with the Angels last night, what is his Top Play tonight? Our Top Trend focuses on Minnesota, in a very interesting situation. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like Atlanta with a money line of +175 to +250, batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a hot starting pitcher like Cole Hamels of the Phillies with a WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. This truly astonishing system is 29-1, that’s correct, 29-1 the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Minnesota is 12-1 after scoring four runs or less five straight games.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Kendall of the Left Coast Connection is in 8-3 run +5.95 units in baseball and is going right back to backing the Los Angeles Angels again tonight.

2008 Washington Redskins Preview

With the first exhibition game just over a week away, NFL talk is coming fast and furious. Washington and Indianapolis will play in the Hall-of-Fame game on Sunday, August 3. This week we’ll take a look at the Redskins chances for the upcoming season and see what the best bet for season total wins is.

Joe Gibbs was never able to re-create his success in return visit to Washington, other than a couple of playoff appearances. Gibbs had given it his all, but the demands were more than he wanted to continue to deal with and new head coach Jim Zorn was hired to build on last year’s 9-7 campaign. Gibbs never quite found the magic, having hired assistant coaches that he was more comfortable with (his age) who never really effectively attacked opponent’s weakness. Gibbs spiritualism did help guide the team thru last year’s senseless death of Sean Taylor and as a human being, Gibbs should be commended for that alone.

One of the first orders of business is to restructure the offense. Quarterback Jason Campbell is still a work in progress and Zorn believes he can teach him to be more effective. The offense only ranked 20th in points scored (20.9) and 20th in total offense at 333.3 yards per game. Adding weapons thru the draft should make the offense more productive, especially in the second half of the season when a higher degree of comfort is met. Campbell will have the chance to be more effective in traditional West Coast offense, featuring slants and passes into the flat.

What could be more challenging for the new coach is maintain excellence on the defense. In 2007, the Redskins were 8th in total defense and 11th in points allowed. That was on the heels of being 30th in yards allowed in 2006, after being 8th in same category in 2005. DC Gregg Williams super aggressive schemes have been replaced by new DC Greg Blache, who was not deemed good enough to hold the job after 2004 season and had been managing the defense line in our nation’s capital since. Washington has age on the left side of defense, which could hold them back from moving forward in Zorn’s maiden adventure as the skipper.

It was nearly impossible to comprehend, but owner Dan Snyder’s wallet actually had dust coming out of this off-season. For the first time since buying the Redskins, Danny Boy made no splashy signings (unless you’re related to former Texans WR Jerome Mathis). In spite of only three playoff appearances since taking ownership, Snyder trusted his staff and new coach Jim Zorn. Under Joe Gibbs second tour of duty in Washington, he made a point to have munchkin receivers. This placed added pressure on QB Jason Campbell to make the perfect throws down the field. This time, the Skins chose the right path and landed 6’2 Devin Thomas and 6’4 Malcolm Thomas. In a weak group of wide receivers, this tandem were rated two of the best three. Trojans TE Fred Davis has good skills and could free up Chris Cooley in down the field routes. Executive vice president Vinny Cerrato was not afraid to play to Zorn’s strengths on the offensive side, nonetheless, has harbored criticism for not better addressing age in the defensive line and strong side LB spots. After losing DE Philip Daniels with tear to left knee ligament the first day of training camp, Cerrato picked up the phone and made trade for Jason Taylor to shore up weak area.

2008 Outlook – It’s the dawning of a new era in Washington, with Jim Zorn taking the reins. While improvement seems to be the theme for the Redskins, they received no help from NFL schedule maker. They are the sacrificial lamb in season opener at the Meadowlands for the Super Bowl champs. Also, back-to-back road division games pop-up in Weeks 4 and 5 against Dallas and Philadelphia respectively. From that point Washington needs to play well, since the season concludes with four of last six away from FedEx Field.

The Redskins are presumed to be better in certain areas, nonetheless, putting in new offensive and defensive schemes takes time for adjustment, for the players and coaches. Unless Zorn is the second coming of Bill Walsh, it will take Redskins players time to figure where they need to be on both sides of the ball. In the first part of the year, this means more thinking than reacting, which in this league is the difference between a first down or a tackle for loss. Zorn also will make first year coaching mistakes, further complicating more positive results. Possible tough sledding in Zorn’s first year and we’ll support the Under 7.5 total.

Free Baseball Plays at 3Daily Winners

Top Trend was easy winner backing Roy Halladay and moves on to the big Yankees/Red Sox rivalry, starting this evening. Kendall’s back from the Left Coast Connection and is backing one of the Los Angeles teams as his Top Play and has opinion on CFL selection. Our System play is in the American League and is 80.5 percent the last five seasons. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON home favorites with money line of -110 or higher like Cleveland, with a mediocre bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 like Livan Hernandez on the season (AL). This system has racked up the winners with 41-10 mark the last five years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Boston Red Sox are 20-3 playing into double revenge.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Kendall’s heating up again in baseball and is using the L.A. Angels as his best bet today. He also mentioned to take a strong look at Hamilton with the points in the CFL.

Free Baseball Selections for July 24

Nice rebound yesterday with 3-1 record. Very seldom do you ever see two poor days in a row at 3Daily Winners, since we seek quality information on these Free plays just like the articles that are written. Top notch System play going, which is hitting over 80 percent since 2004. Today’s Top Trend has a pitcher dominating an opponent. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against all underdogs like Kansas City, with a money line of +100 or higher, after five straight games where they stranded seven or less runners on base, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 8.00 the last five games. Why this system works is teams like the Royals are not hitting and their pitching is getting battered. This system is 62-15, 80.5 percent, including perfect 2-0 this year.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Toronto with Ray Halladay starting is 17-3 against Baltimore since 2001.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Most members of the Left Coast Connection including myself are passing today.

Free Baseball Plays from 3Daily Winners

Bad day all the way around yesterday, as everything took a beating. Started today right with System Play a winner and Yankees play was accurate. I'll add one more play for tonight, you can read below. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON all favorites with a money line of -150 or more like Tampa Bay, who are below average hitting team (BA .265 or less), against a good starting pitcher like the A’s Greg Smith (5-8, 3.79), who has an ERA of 4.20 or less in the AL, in the second half of the season. This system is 68-16, 81 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Colorado is 13-0 Over after scoring 9 or more runs in back to back games.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Haven’t received all information yet, thus will give out play I like thus far on the Yankees. UPDATE- Seeing I hit the Yankees, I'll go with other New York team tonight.

Free Baseball Picks at 3Daily Winners

Another 2-1 winning day at 3DW, and our friends at StatFox sent over a top notch System play that has two teams in the mix. The Top Trend of the day seeks two in a row, looking in on Tampa Bay. Our pal Sal from the LCC, has put together great runs here with his Free Plays and has one going today. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs against a +1.5 run line, (Money Line in -190 to +165 range) with a team on-base percentage .320 or worse on the season (AL), in the second half of the season. This run line system is 21-5, 80.7 percent this season and shows Cleveland and Oakland as play against teams.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Tampa Bay is 17-1 as -150 to -200 home favorite this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal from the Left Coast Connection is heating up again, pounding out 8-2 record the last three days and is backing Jake Peavy and San Diego.

Understanding Baseball’s Magic Number 4

The major league baseball All-Star break was a welcome relief for many, a time to take a few days off to stretch the mind, offer a few more simple pleasures and generally take it easy. For others, the void is an unwelcome interruption from the daily grind of churning out numbers. Having studying numbers with regularity at least since April, if not dating back to November when the NBA season started, this chasm is a break that throws off the kismet of where a sports bettor expects to end up.

For those of us that fit the latter group, a healthy exercise is to reflect where we have been and where we are going. This season to date in major league baseball, 4.5 has been the number, this is what all teams have averaged either scoring or allowing in 2008. Since half-numbers of course are impossible to determine outcomes, decided to choose what is the most talked about number in the media these days –four- like the one Brett Favre has worn.

For starters, let’s review the division leaders or those who are very close. The Los Angeles Angels have held opponents 65 times to four runs or less among its 98 games (66.3 percent) and not surprisingly are tied for the best record in baseball. Boston and Tampa Bay are in a dogfight in the AL East and the Red Sox have held opponent to four or fewer runs 57 times and the first place Rays on 58 different occasions. Division leaders out of Chicago, the White Sox and the Cubs, have held opponents to four runs or less 55 and 57 times respectively.

The importance of this figure is shown by the results of another division leader, Arizona. When the D-Backs started 20-8, 19 times (67.8 percent) they held the opposing team to four or fewer runs. Since then, that percent has fallen to 47.1, as only 33 times in the next 70 contests have the Snakes held opponents below this number, in part, accounting for 28-42. With Arizona’s lack of hitting receiving so much attention in slide, aside from All-Stars Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, the rest of the pitching staff has been mediocre at best.

How important is this stat as it relates to teams having winning streaks? Consider the New York Mets as the most recent example. The Mets had won 10 in a row, to catapult back into the NL East race. During that hot streak they were12-2 in those 14encounters, surrendering more than four runs just three times. Compare this success with what it’s taken in blocks of games in which they held opponents to this few of runs. Prior to this successful point in time, it took 24 games to hold foes 12 times below five runs (10-14 record). Before then, 22 games (11-11) and starting April 19, it took 24 trips to the ballpark (11-13) to reach the figure of 12 again, proving how important good pitching is.

The St. Louis Cardinals are a surprise team, hanging around the lead in the NL Central, despite incredible injuries to many pitchers. Manager Tony LaRussa and pitching coach Dave Duncan have pieced together pitching staff, and when the Cards to teams to 0-to-4 runs, they are 47-17 in 2008.

Minnesota’s 24-9 run to creep ever closer to Chicago, has been fueled by great pitching, as clubs in other uniforms have scored four or less runs 23 times.

Because of the differences of ballparks, teams style of play, this is theory is not absolute and has a flip side relating to scoring runs. The San Diego Padres play in the most extreme pitcher’s park in baseball and have matched the Chicago White Sox for allowing opponents to score four or less runs 55 times. The Padres problems revolve around offense, since an enormous 67 times (67.6 percent for those keeping track at home), they have failed to score five or more runs in a game.

Weak hitting teams like Washington and Seattle do not score enough runs with or without decent pitching. The Nationals have failed to break the barrier beyond four runs 61 times and the Mariners an even worse 66 times.

Detroit’s pitching has been suspect all season, thus they are more dependent on scoring runs. In the Tigers first 60 games, they failed to touch home plate five times 27 different ways, this led to 24-36 record. In last 38 contests, they have scored a minimum of five runs 24 times and are 25-13 to square up record at .500.

Do you think Florida counts on hitting? The Marlins are 52-46 and have been outscored by 25 runs in 2008, thanks to allowing the third most runs in the National League. When Florida scores five runs or more, they are 48-14. When the Fish swim into four or fewer runs, they are miserable 14-32.

For those handicapping these figures, you have to understand what you are working with. It a team doesn’t score runs, and is facing starting pitcher with quality earned run average and is backed up with good bullpen, they are not going to have much success. In this situation, to seek value, you would need this team probably to be at home, scoring runs at above average rate of five or more contests and having their number one or two starter throwing. If these elements come together, a solid play on home underdog is worth contemplating.

The other aspect is to match the team’s recent play with how they are scoring and allowing runs compared to the oddsmakers total. If two clubs have been scoring five or more runs, for six or more games on average and the total is 8.5 for example, the oddsmaker is telling us two good starting hurlers are facing one another. In this case, it is a matter of understanding bullpens and which team is better equipped to play lower scoring game, knowing this should lead you down the path of profitability in the second half of the season.

Free Baseball Picks at 3Daily Winners

The White Sox bullpen caused 3Daily Winners to “settle” for 3-1 day on Sunday. The System play today is remarkable; having won 38 of 41 times it has come up. Today’s Top Trend takes us right back to Coffee Town, where Starbucks $8 coffees are no longer the rage on a budget. Since we started giving out Free Plays on this blog, our record is 78-32, 70.9 percent. Paul Buck was correct on both plays on Sunday and has the Winner on NL East showdown. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON all favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 like Tampa Bay, who are below average hitting team ( BA .265 or less), against a good starting pitcher like Dana Eveland (7-6, 3.49 ERA) who has an ERA of 4.20 or less in the AL, in the second half of the season. Logic dictates there is a reason why the Rays should be such a large favorite, despite shortcomings in two mentioned situations. This system is incredible at 38-3, 92.7 percent the last 11 seasons.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Seattle is 3-16 after playing consecutive games Over.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck has been making serious cash, hitting 15 of last 21 wagers, including both Winners here yesterday. He’s on Florida today to keep streak going.

Free Baseball Picks at 3Daily Winners

Rare 1-2 day at 3Daily Winners and we’ll look to climb right back in the saddle today. Yesterday’s winner was a System selection and we have another stupendous one is available hitting 86.2 percent. We uncovered a 100 percent Top Trend and these have near perfect all baseball season. Paul Buck is bucking the system and has 2 outstanding Free Plays. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more like Kansas City, who are poor power team averaging less than a home run per game, against a starting pitcher like John Danks who gives up 0.5 or less long balls a start, after five straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base. This awesome system is 50-8, 86.2 percent the last 11 years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Seattle has yet to win in nine tries after allowing more than 9 runs in last contest in 2008.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck has been on a nice ride, hitting 12 of last 16 wagers and is on Detroit in MLB and gives out Toronto minus the points in Canadien football as his best play in that sport thus far this season.

Free Baseball Picks at 3Daily Winners

Our System plays are heating up again, and now are 35-20, 63.6 percent. Today 3Daily Winners has uncovered an 80 percent System play, which has won by large margins. Yesterday’s Top Trend was a winning play, giving us 2-1 day and follows the exploits of Washington in Atlanta. A founding member of the LCC has his Top Play available for Free. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher, like it is on San Diego, after five straight games where they stranded seven or less runners on base, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 8.00 the last five games. This truly unique system is 60-15 the last five seasons; with winning margin being 2.4 runs a game.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Washington has lost 13 of last 15 games playing on Saturday.

Free Baseball Selection -3) One of the founders of the Left Coast Connection has been knocking down winners in MLB action with 10-2 mark, picking +8.65 units. Tonight he has the Chicago White Sox as strong selection.

Baseball Betting American League 2nd Half Outlook

With the second half of the season about to commence, here is an in-depth look at many of the different perspectives of the contenders to win divisions or American League pennant. We’ll look into scheduling aspects, key stats that the contenders must maintain or improve upon in the last 60+ games remaining in the season. Additionally, we’ll look into these teams’ odds to win division or be AL representative in the World Series.

The Los Angeles Angels have the best record in the American League at 57-38 (+12.5 units). Their style of play in more National League-like, thanks to manager Mike Scioscia preferring to steal bases, having runners on the move and being aggressive. Despite superior record, they rank just third at most sportsbooks to be AL squad to be in Fall Classic at 3-1 odds. L.A. is only +21 in score differential, thanks to faulty offense. The Halos are 11th in runs scored in the AL, 12th in on-base percentage and impatient at the plate, ranking next to last in walks. The L.A. pitching staff is awesome, however the bullpen ranks only 11th in ERA in the AL. The Angles open the second half with Boston and Cleveland at the “Big A” in Anaheim. After that they head east to face Baltimore, the Red Sox and New York. In scheduling oddity, they have more games left with the Yankees (7), than with division rival Oakland (6).

Oakland continues to hang around in the AL West thanks to tremendous pitching from mostly talented youngsters. The A’s allow the fewest runs; have the lowest OBP surrendered and fourth best bullpen ERA. On offense, Oakland scuffles. The A’s are 11th in OBP and have the 2nd most strikeouts, making scoring runs an uphill battle. After the break, the Athletics road schedule is brutal, with series at New York, at Tampa Bay, at Boston, at Toronto, at Detroit and at Minnesota. Starting August 1, 20 of next 26 contests will be in traveling grays. Oakland is 4-1 to win division and real long shot at 30-1 to make Series.

Texas has baseball’s best offense-to-pitching dichotomy. The Rangers are first in runs scored, 2nd in OBP and 2nd in walks. These free swingers whiff more than any team in the junior circuit. Pitching numbers has Texas last in runs allowed, OBP, walks and next to last in strikeouts and bullpen ERA. In spite of playing pretty good baseball to have 50-46 record, hard to consider them even serious wild card contenders. The Rangers fate could be decided quickly with nine-game roadie at Twins, at White Sox and at Oakland.

The Chicago White Sox lead the AL Central by 1.5 games and are second in the league in run differential at +83. The White Sox offense has gone through a few droughts, yet have bounced back to be third in runs scored. Manager Ozzie Guillen has produced a few tirades; however they have had nothing to do with the pitching. Sox pitchers do a fantastic job in limiting big innings; ranking 2nd in fewest walks and stay out of jams, being 3rd in strikeouts. Closer Bobby Jenks will start the second part of the season on the DL, with the Pale Hose having enough to cover up with the finest bullpen ERA in AL. If Chicago can but together 6-4 road trip starting July 25, they return to U.S. Cellular Field to take on Detroit, Boston and Kansas City, where they are sensational 32-13. Sox are 1-2 to take AL Central and 6-1 to make World Series.

Have to give manager Ron Gardenhire credit again, as most preseason magazines had Minnesota 4th or 5th in the division. Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer are legit stars and Michael Cuddyer has turned himself into a good player from a part-timer. With offensive deficiencies in the lower part of the line-up, scoring a lot of runs will continue to be an issue, but as long as the pitchers continue to give up the fewest walks, Minnesota is still a threat. The Twinkies open second half at the MetroDome and will play 19 of 31 there thru August 20. After this they leave for 15-day, 14-game road trip that sends them out West and to Canada. When the Twins arrive back home, everyone will know if 2-1 odds to division were true.

Detroit really missed a golden opportunity to close the gap in division; losing three of four to Minnesota at home in last series. If they had reversed those numbers, the Tigers would be only five back of Chicago and 1.5 behind the Twins. Holding a 19-27 road record, Jim Leyland’s club will prove if they deserve being mentioned for postseason or just underachievers. Detroit will start with 17 of 20 on the road, which includes six conflicts with the White Sox. To have any hope, they will need to be within four games of Sox to have any potential real chance it appears. The Tigers are 4-1 to win division title and with pitching staff that is 12th in OBP and walks, the Tigers will need gigantic leap by all members of the staff to make run.

When analyzing numbers, no wonder Boston is 13-10 odds to return to World Series to defend crown. Second in runs, first in free passes and OBP, the Red Sox do all the little things right. They will definitely have to clean up 21-29 road record and possibly having David Ortiz back will help. The starting pitching is secure, with more consistency needed out of the bullpen to put together winning streaks of six or seven games. The schedule is fairly balanced and the Red Sox will enjoy a couple more days off than competitors, having played the most games in baseball to this point. Hard not to like Boston chances, if for no other reason than 36-11 record at Fenway Park.

Everyone was waiting for Tampa Bay slump and it came right before All-Star break. The Rays will seek to quickly regroup at Tropicana Field, where they are 36-14. Great pitching has kept Tampa Bay on everyone’s mind, being second in OBP allowed, 3rd best bullpen and 4th in runs allowed. The offense runs hot and cold, which is exhibited by being 3rd in walks and 3rd in striking out. Manager Joe Maddon will have to massage the egos of his young team, since after six home games starting Friday, 20 of next 29 are on the road. The Rays will have mettle tested in September also, playing AL East clubs, plus six with Twins and trio with Tigers. Tampa is 1-1 to steal the East and 5-2 to be Series rep from the AL.

The Yankees still believe they have enough to at least be wild card team. Injured players are returning, giving the New York faithful hope. Statistically, the numbers are not present to suggest such a run, being rather pedestrian in most categories. Joe Girardi’s squad will have opportunity to get on a roll with 13 of 16 at Yankee Stadium beginning Friday. The Bronx Bombers will need to likely be very close come Labor Day, with only 10 home games at Yankee Stadium in September. New York is just 7-1 to win division yet interestingly enough, have same 6-1 odds as White Sox to play in World Series.

Though a real long shot, have to at least mention Toronto, with its exceptional pitching, ranking 2nd in runs allowed. If the Blue Jays could at least be a top five offense team in the second part of the year, they would have to be a factor and sneak up to be in the hunt for wild card.

Free Baseball Picks at 3Daily Winners

A perfect 2-0 as the Left Coast Connection connected on third straight Free Winner and the system was also correct on Thursday. Another extraordinary System play is ready, presently hitting at 85 percent. Today’s top Trend returns in the State with 10,000 lakes and the LCC consensus play goes for four in a row in the great state of Texas. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like San Diego, with a money line of +100 or higher, who are dreadful offensive team scoring 4.1 RPG or less, against an average starting pitcher like Brandon Looper (ERA=4.20 to 5.20)-NL, with a starting pitcher like Greg Maddux whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season-NL. This sweet system bakes, at 34-6, 85 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Minnesota is 13-1 in last 14 outings at the MetroDome.

Free Baseball Selection -3) The LCC has nailed down three FREE winners in a row and has seven members are on the Cubs, with nobody supporting Houston.

Free Baseball Picks Return

Hope you enjoyed a brief reprieve. Last Sunday we hit both posted plays. Today, one System play is available with small schedule and it has hit 90.4 percent since 2004. The LCC has another Free MLB play after hitting last two. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST home underdogs, like the Reds with a money line of +125 to +175, who are average offensive team (4.3 to 4.8 runs a game) against a good starting pitcher like Johan Santana (8-7, 2.84) with ERA of 3.70 or less, after a loss by 2 runs or less. This system is flabbergasting 19-2 the last five years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) No superior trends today.

Free Baseball Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection has hit last two plays and has another consensus selection with backers 9 for 9 on the Cardinals.

Baseball Betting National League 2nd Half Outlook

The National League is glad not to have anything to do with the American League until October, when the stakes will be higher. As second half of the year starts today, we’ll examine key stats, scheduling situations of all the teams in contention in the National League. With most teams having about 68 games to play, give or take a few, we’ll see how oddsmakers feel about these teams chances to win division titles and head to World Series.

These are heady times in Chicago this summer, for the first time in 31 years, both major league baseball teams are in first place as the last part of the schedule starts after the break. The Chicago Cubs have been the best team in the senior circuit for the vast majority of the season. They have been consistently one of the best bets in baseball at +12.2 units, and an incredible +19 at Wrigley Field with 37-12 mark. Chicago lead the NL in runs scored, on-base percentage and walks and are 3rd in runs allowed, accounting for largest run differential in the sport at +106. With Alfonso Soriano coming back and Rich Harden solidify starters; the only real pieces left are the return to form of Carlos Marmol and Kerry Wood being a touch more consistent out of the back end of pen. The Cubs will attempt to open a gap between them and Brewers and Cardinals in August, with 21 home games. If this fails, could be dicey September with only nine contests at Friendly Confines. Cubs are 1-3 to win division and odds on choice at 3-2 to make World Series at many Vegas sportsbooks. (Cubs fans and backers, drink lots of fluids)

Milwaukee will give it go, being able to have three excellent and two pretty serviceable starting pitchers over every five-game period. In order to catch the Cubs or be the wide card team, the 7th ranked scoring offense has to climb into the top five, as 11th ranked bullpen does not figure to get much better unless starters can regularly go 7+ innings. Brewers are 5-2 to comeback and win NL Central and 5-1 to return to Series for the first time since Hall-of-Famers Robin Yount and Paul Molitor were patrolling old County Stadium. Milwaukee’s schedule is balanced and includes 10 games with division leading Chicago. The only downside of remaining games is only a dozen versus the NL West.

One of the great mysteries of the first half of the season is how the St. Louis Cardinals have 53-43 record. Based on talent and ability, more than half the teams in the NL have better one-two starting pitcher combo than Kyle Lohse and Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals. The bullpen has 13-20 record and has blown 20 saves; along with 4.29 ERA, which is 13th in the National League. The staff strikes out the fewest batters in the league, just on this information alone, it’s impossible to believe St. Louis would have the best road record in the NL at 27-22, +10.5 units. Yet the offense is second to Cubs in OBP, draws the 2nd most walks and is steady as it goes. The Cards are 5-1 to snag division crown and open with eight home games, including four with the Brew Crew. By August 14, everyone will have a good indication about the Tony LaRussa’s club, playing mostly contenders until that time.

Philadelphia is 2nd in runs scored, has the best bullpen in baseball, and yet can’t create any separation in NL East due to unstable starting pitching. It would seem the Phillies will try to add a starter by July 31 trade deadline, using Brett Myers as the bait for a team needing bullpen help. The offense has been more dissonant than expected and will face immediate test, at Florida and at New York, to start 12 of 15 road contests. Starting August 5, the Phillies play 15 of 22 at home. Philadelphia is just a shade behind Mets to win division crown at 11-10 and 9-2 to earn right to play in Fall Classic.

The Mets are a challenge to figure. After not being to get out of their own shadow, they close 9-0 to have the same number of losses as front-running Philly. Skeptics claim beating San Francisco and Colorado at home is not overly impressive; nevertheless, shutting them out four times in six encounters is an attention grabber. The offense has been tastier than a Nathan’s all-beef, scoring 6.2 runs per game in July. The schedule does not feature any long or short home or road trips and the furthest destination will be one time zone away at Houston. If the starting pitchers can deliver 6+ innings regularly, the warts the bullpen has can be masked pretty well. If the bats continue to grind, the Mets should win the East and 7-2 wager to return to Series is possible.

Just when it looks like it is time to right off Florida, they have resurgence. At 50-45, nobody takes them serious as real contenders (5-1 to win NL East), especially being -28 run differential. The Marlins give up too many runs (14th), allow too many free passes (14th), leaving the offense to pick up the slack. Somehow, someway, Florida scores in bunches and is 3rd in runs scored. Though they create natural wind flow leading the league in K’s, the Marlins find ways to manufacture wins. For exactly one month, Florida plays NL contenders, with possible exception of Colorado. Remember August 18 standings for Florida, it will tell the tale.

Arizona is a squad in real need of veteran leadership. This division is pathetic and they have found a way to bring others back into contention. Bullpen leaks oil, mostly on the road, the starting pitching could be great if Micah Owings and Randy Johnson find a groove. The hitters are too stubborn for their own good, whiffing 3rd most in the league. The D-Backs are 27-19 in downtown Phoenix and could use fast start, facing the Dodgers and Cubs at home. If successful, this creates immediate space in the standings. Build a small lead, hang on and wait until August 19, when the only trip is to sordid San Diego over next 15 ball games.

Like Arizona, the Los Angeles Dodgers are 1-1 odds to win NL West. Playing in Dodger Stadium helps L.A. surrender the fewest runs among the sixteen teams and strongly contributes to them being 13th in runs scored. The bullpen is second in the league in ERA, which means if this team is going to win division; the bats will have to come alive. With virtually no power (15th in home runs), how the Dodgers start magically scoring more runs is food for thought. A 3-3 road trip to commence second half is good beginning, with 20 of next 26 at home. If possible, Joe Torre’s club will want to have a lead in the division by September 8, when only six games will remain to be played at Dodger Stadium.

Because the NL West is so sad, San Francisco and Colorado have to be mentioned and now they have been.

Brett Favre Overdose

This whole Brett Favre situation has really taken a turn for the worse it seems. What’s most troubling is both sides are essentially talking about same elements that have occurred, with each interrupting the events in their own way. Both sides have valid points and I have no idea how this will get solved.

Those reporting in the media seem to be on board with Rodgers deserves chance since Favre retired. Hard to disagree there. Brett backers can’t get enough of this long time warrior and would support him if he threw a 100 interceptions (receivers just ran wrong routes, wink).

O.K. seeing I’m main writer for this blog, I should have opinion and do, though it’s different from what I wrote a week ago. Still being a Packers season ticket holder (Milwaukee version), I initially supported management, knowing I was a Green Bay fan before #4 and will be one after he leaves. I do feel for Aaron Rodgers, this does stink after all this time, but last I looked, life is like Forrest Gump said.

As a fan, I want the team I root for to have the best chance to win possible, period. If this situation comes to complete impasse, coach Mike McCarthy declares quarterback position open. That’s right, Fav-re quit, team needed commitment he could not deliver, gave his best answer at the time. Packers went with Rodgers, who is best available quarterback on the roster. Rodgers feels he deserves to be starter, Favre believes he’s proven (rightfully) he shouldn’t be backup. Have open competition in camp and let the best player earn the job. As a true competitor, both would be asked to perform at their best. While Rodgers might feel the situation is weighted against him, too damn bad. If you are truly the right QB for what ended up being the second best team in the NFC, show your worth.

Having previously lived in the state of the frozen tundra for many years, winning with Favre would be great, but winning with Rodgers will work also.

Though never really a huge fan of Billy Packer, was surprised he was either leaving or being shown the door. Listening to Packer describe games was generally a pleasure with his no-nonsense basketball-first style. His often aloof approach to the selection committee, the changes in the college game, left him seeming out of touch in the new millennium. His personal views about life and politics only alienated people, thus why would he bother other than to be heard.

In all honesty, thought Packer was better than he had been in years this past season. He was more into games, talked more frankly about players and situations. In different telecasts he observed O.J. Mayo and Eric Gordon were good, not great college players. He mentioned he understood, both would likely go in the NBA draft after the season, but were far from polished products. He talked about how dull the Big Ten tournament was, lacking top level players compared to other conferences. His remarks about North Carolina being done in the national Final Four game were priceless, as Jim Nantz and every CBS executive’s jaw fell to the floor based on his appraisal so early in the contest, of which the network is shelling out a 1, with a whole bunch of zeroes behind it to broadcast.

Thanks Billy, it’s been fun, as we move into the world of Clark Kellogg and “taking the orange to the tin” or “he’s got a lot in his bookbag”.

Baseball Betting Changes

Earlier this season while doing research, came across a rather curious trend in major league baseball. At that point, it had been winning at a high rate of return and though it has slowed down to a point, still delivering far better than average results. Having never seen it mentioned anywhere else, decided to see if it had any legs beyond this season.

The angle read this way – What does a baseball team do against the money line, after exactly three consecutive games of 10 or more hits and next contest is on the road?

What was uncovered, road teams in this role have lost 40 of 62 games played to date in 2008, a 35.4 winning percentage. Playing against these teams has earned a dependable +15.60 units of profit, right at the All-Star break. What has been a boom for bettors is profits have been available in all areas concerning the money line.

Road favorites are 9-12, -5.85 units
Road underdogs are 12-25, -7.60 units
Road team “Pick” 1-3, -2.15 units.

Is this trend an anomaly for this season or has this been missed by baseball betting researchers?
Went back to 2007 and found 124 instances of this occurring for the entire season and the results were far different than this current campaign. Last year road teams were 61-63 in the same scenario and actually showed a profit in all games.

Road favorites were 26-19, +2.85 units
Road underdogs were 31-39, +6.99 units
Road team “Pick” 4-5, -1.25 units.

When I started thinking about what these numbers would mean in terms of perception, had to try break it down two ways, with two different conclusions. It would seem if a team is hitting the ball well enough to post three consecutive games of double digit base-knocks, the carryover affect would be strong, no matter where they played, unless they happened to draw the ace of the opposing team’s staff.

Having started with the 2008 numbers first, developed another way of looking at this, surmising the road team has not been able to continue the momentum of swinging the lumber with a high degree of execution and just ran out of luck as the road team, with the law of average just catching up with them.

Decided to put on archeologist attire and dig into 2006 and see which way was more prevalent. As it turned out, the original perception was right on the money, with road teams showing large gains and significant profit.

Road favorites were 25-10, +13.45 units
Road underdogs were 34-41, +9.35 units
Road team “Pick” 4-10, -6.5 units.

This reinforced original belief a hot-hitting team is dangerous, even on the road. The confidence level is high for those in the lineup and they are less intimated by playing on the road as a whole. A piece of very useful information was found, showing road teams off three games of 10 or more hits that are a “Pick”, are mere 9-18 the last three years.

Going back to where we started, based on the previous two years, how does one explain the lack of success road teams have had in 2008? While no one answer will encompass the entire scope of this question, there would appear to be one explanation that generally covers why this has occurred to date. As of right now, only three teams have a winning road record in major league baseball. In 2007, seven teams ended up above .500 record as visiting team and 2006 saw a total of 10 squads finishing in-the-black as visitors. Those numbers correlate to highlighted figures.

Thus far, road teams are winning 43.1 percent of all games played compared to 46 percent the prior three seasons. Will the trend of playing against these specific road teams continue or will the numbers equal out by the end of the year as per usual? Of course their no way to know precisely, but every year in all the various sports, unusual situations go against the norm, this could be one worth following.

Free Baseball Picks at 3DW

Sorry to be so late, right up against game time, but was searching for top quality system and could not find one, thus will pass instead of putting something ordinary out there. After another 3-0 sweep of the board yesterday, 3Daily Winners has well regarded Perfect Trend and another swell Free Play ready for tonight. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) No top quality systems available today.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Baltimore continues to fetor on Sunday’s with 0-13 record.

Free Baseball Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection has another consensus play almost as strong as last night’s on the New York Mets.