Georgia Bulldogs # 1 - No Chance

The college football writer’s poll was released last week with the Georgia Bulldogs ranked the number one team in the land for 2008. There are a plethora of reasons to back the Bulldogs to win the national championship. Head coach Mark Richt’s club returns 17 starters from what was arguably the best team in the country at the end of last season and brings seven game winning streak into this season. Talent wise, the Bulldogs can easily lineup with any team in the country and the case can rather easily be made they are truly better man for man across the board. Then why not enough love for being the top team in the FBS, this is one only Tim Meadows, The Ladies Man from Saturday Night Live might understand.
The Georgia schedule stands out like a shiny new Lexus about to compete at the local demolition derby and others are paying attention also. At many sportbooks, USC is the top betting choice to be national champs (West Coast betting bias) at +350, with Ohio State second at +400 and the Bulldogs and Oklahoma next at +500.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants even chimed in with LVSC Chief Operating Officer Ken White offering up the Bulldogs as number seven, instead of number one. “I can remember in 2005 that everyone thought Tennessee was going to be one of the best teams in the country (#3 AP), they were coming off a 10-3 season and returned 17 starters. The Vols had a monster schedule, playing four ranked opponents on the road and wound up struggling to a 5-6 record,” White said. One difference that should be noted, AP writers thoughts are based on where they believe they believe the teams should start the season, with LVSC rationale being where they should end up to conclude the season.

There is a series of obstacles that await Richt’s bunch and most have to do with the 2008 schedule that has more potential troubles than season four of MTV’s “The Hills”. The listed road games are at South Carolina, Arizona State, LSU, Kentucky and Auburn. Three of these teams are in the preseason Top 25, with the ol’ ball coach Steve Spurrier’s Gamecocks lurking a spot or two just out of range.

South Carolina handed Georgia one of its two losses last season in Athens 16-12, as three-point underdogs. The Gamecocks have their best team since Spurrier arrived in Columbia and he welcomes back 10 starters on defense. Five of the last seven meetings have been decided by six or less points. Georgia is used to playing in the heat and humidity of the South, nonetheless the desert features all kinds of critters and assuredly Dennis Erickson will have his Arizona State team primed for the Dawgs on national television. This affair ends up being sandwiched between South Carolina and Alabama.

After a bye week, the SEC gauntlet begins in earnest. On October 11, Tennessee arrives to play between the hedges. The Vols hammered the Bulldogs 35-14, which ended up being Georgia’s last defeat. Certainly revenge will be on players minds, especially with a week off and they are 12-6-1 ATS with extra week of preparation in the regular season. Vanderbilt is listed as sacrificial lamb for homecoming. Next up, a sojourn to Baton Rouge.

Georgia figures to be favored in Columbia, SC and Tempe, AZ, however based on what we know today, the Dawgs will be dogs at LSU. This is not a bad thing, as smart bettors are attuned to Richt’s teams being expertly prepared on the road, as they are 22-3 SU in true visitor’s role. The Bulldogs are 7-2 ATS as road underdogs and this should be quite a battle. The following week is in Jacksonville, where the world largest bourbon convention convenes this side of Jack Daniels. A dog is a feast for an alligator and Georgia has been just that for Florida with 3-15 (6-11-1 ATS) record the last 18 seasons. Coach Richt went against personality type in this contest a year ago, setting the table for late season run with 42-30 victory. Florida has as much pure talent as Georgia and has revenge in mind after last season.

A natural letdown has to be expected at Kentucky, after two such emotion filled games meaning the possibility exists of having to work harder than expected in Lexington. The last SEC game is on the plains of Alabama in Auburn. The Tigers are always tough at home and will have witnessed in the film room the second half lambasting they received last year at Athens, losing 45-20, as the Bulldogs wore black jersey’s for the first time in what is considered the modern era of the football program.

After another week of richly deserved rest, the final conflict is annual battle with Georgia Tech. Though the Dawgs have had no problems with the Yellow Jackets in winning seven straight (5-1-1 ATS), this will mark first home game in six very strenuous weeks.

Don’t think for a second scheduling doesn’t matter, Tennessee was mentioned from a few seasons ago and a similar thing happened to USC last year, coming up flat and mistake prone in losing at home to Stanford and latter succumbing to Oregon on the road in a loaded Pac-10 in 2007.

The make-up of the roster is different than anticipated already before the first game. Sophomore offensive tackle Trinton Sturdivant is out for the season with a severe injury to his left knee after earning All-SEC raves as a freshman. Senior FB Brannan Southerland is expected to miss up to five games recovering from foot surgery in June. His loss matters, since he was often the lead blocker for talented running back Knowshon Moreno. A few other off-the-field irregularities have led to suspensions that will impact depth and cohesion early in the year.

Despite a wonderfully talented squad with a distinguished head coach, look for Georgia to fall short of projections and drop a couple of contests. The possibility exists they might not even win division if one of the losses is to Florida. Expecting another two-loss team from the SEC to be national champs is just too much to ask. Find another team to wager on, since this one could be dog-gone disappointing to the locals.

Baseball Betting Numbers Change Dramatically

Just like the woman in the infomercial putting her hands together for “The Clapper”, oddsmakers have turned the switch in making dramatic changes in the baseball money lines they are now distributing. These are deep sweeping changes compared to last season, which can have a dramatic impact on how one wagers on baseball. What has happened and why?

Many bettors prefer to stay away from favorites at -150 or higher and will succumb to having to make alterations after the All-Star break as the money lines steadily increase on those in pennant races. Most bettors in the circles I travel will to up to -170 limit, before passing altogether or start wagering on run lines.

Through the first 21 days of August, the source used for opening lines, has seen a gargantuan total of 59 baseball games at -200 or higher. Compare that figure with 29 for the entire month of August in 2007 and you can understand what this year has brought us. Why the big change this season?

Gave professional gambler Sal from the Left Coast Connection a call to see if he could explain what is going on. “Douglas my friend, a number of factors, go into this vexing issue”, Sal said. “One of the biggest factors leading up to this is how general managers shifted their thinking this year. Players like C.C. Sabathia and Rich Harden were moved long before the trade deadline, as were a number of other players. This helped oddsmakers learn sooner about how a player or players would fit into teams and what chemistry issues might arise. For the most part, every acquisition any contending team has made has turned out to be a positive and squares have been betting these teams with regularity. This accounts for the rise in money line numbers so quickly.”

Along Sal’s thought process, teams that would normally fight to stay in pennant races until Labor Day, have hit the eject button on the season extremely early and have made call-ups already this month. Cleveland, after being one game away from World Series last year, bailed faster than a poker player holding a 2 and 4 hole cards in differing suits. Detroit threw in the towel early, not feeling they had a 2007 Colorado Rockies September run in them. Even a Steinbrenner named Hank, all but gave Hillary Clinton concession speech in the last 10 days, in talking about 2009, while the Yankees are still in wild card chase.

How does a baseball bettor combat this onslaught of mammoth numbers? We first talked to Mark Borchgard, chief handicapper at Basewinner.com. “When the numbers get this high (-200 or higher), I like to parlay them, but would only do so if I really liked the game. Just this past Sunday, I matched the Yankees and Minnesota together for an easy parlay winner. It is understood you have to win both games, which has a certain amount of risk, but better to make a one unit play on parlay number than accept the risk of losing at -200 or higher money line, with light payout on a winner.”

Veteran handicapper Mark Lawrence of Playbook.com has a different take to help bettors bust big numbers. “We’re seeing more of the -300 favorites this year than in the past. My philosophy is to make a case for the underdog or don’t chase the large favorites. The same pitcher that is a -300 pitcher today was -200 a month ago. The oddsmakers are compensating for this change in position, by the condition of team the pitcher plays for, by standing in the pennant race.” Mark went on to add, “In playing large underdogs, check the current form of pitchers, the condition of the team they’re playing and if they are not in losing streak and there is nothing wrong with this team (the underdog), consider fading these large favorites and if you do this until season’s end, you should have a chance to show a net profit.”

After talking to Steve Makinen from StatFox about this article, he happened to be talking to Bookmaker.com CEO Mickey Richardson afterwards and asked him about what is occurring this season in this regard to baseball betting lines. Mickey had this to say, ".....no parity this year, it will get worse as the season moves forward, you will start to see games at -400. Books are getting destroyed, as the public is jumping on the bandwagon and riding these favorites."

Sage advise from those who make their living betting and following baseball’s ever changing landscape, as we head down the stretch of the pennant races.

Thursday NFL Notes

In the NFL exhibition season, I’m 3-1 and backing the Bears tonight at minus 3. This is contrary to what has occurred thus far in commish Roger Goodell’s pretend world of letting owner charge full price for these contests. (It’s not Jolly Roger’s fault, many before him let the precedent take hold) Home favorites are 7-23-3 against the spread, with the Over the best Totals play at 20-13.

The unfortunate death of Gene Upshaw is not good news for small market teams like Green Bay, Buffalo and Jacksonville, as rich, greedy owners make take this opportunity to really create labor unrest and abolish salary cap, leaving franchises like this in the dust instead of the larger viewpoint of what is best for the sport.

Baseball Betting Info for Thursday

We got back on the winning track at 3Daily Winners with 2-1 day. We have unearthed another System that is almost inconceivable at 93.1 percent. The perfect Trend returns, following the exploits of Seattle this time. Free Play is from the left Coast Connection in American league action. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON all favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 like Cleveland, who are below average hitting team (BA .265 or less) against a good starting pitcher like Zack Greinke (9-8, 3.92), who owns ERA of 4.20 or less in the AL, in the second half of the season. This money making system is conspicuous 41-3, 93.1 percent since 1997. How does this system work so effectively, maybe having pitchers like Cy Young winner to be Cliff Lee (17-2, 2.43) backing it up.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Seattle is 0-16 after allowing nine or more runs in next encounter.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Though not a one-sided consensus, the Left Coast Connection has seven bettors on the Angels and three on Minnesota. Free Play is officially on the Halos.

Baseball Betting Info for Wednesday

Hope you enjoyed yesterday’s incredible System play and we have one nearly as good today, with an 89.4 winning percentage. Today’s Top trend takes us to the Windy City and we need to break brief losing streak in this area. Also we look to get back on track with our Free selections and have consensus play loaded. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Oakland, with a money line of +175 to +250, after allowing 10 runs or more against opponent after a combined score of 15 runs or more. This system is sizzling 34-4, 89.4 percent the last three years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Chicago Cubs have won 18 of last 22 night games at Wrigley Field.

Free Baseball Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection actually had two games where everybody was on one side. The first one won't count with six guys on Milwaukee in afternoon action, tonight seven players will be on Matt Cain and the Giants as official Free selection at 3Daily Winners.

Free Tuesday Baseball Selections at 3DW

Honestly disappointed with 1-2 day and have uncovered a superb System that will take your breath away with its phenomenal record. Milwaukee is in outstanding spot for today’s Top Trend and Free Play has one of the Left Coast Connection bettors playing a money line parlay. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like Oakland, with a money line of +175 to +250, who are batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher like the Twins Kevin Slowey, who has WHIP 1.000 or less over his last five starts. Drum roll please, this system is 30-1 since 2006. WOW!

Free Baseball Trend -2) Milwaukee is 15-1 against the money line in home games with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) With so many huge numbers today, one member from the LCC makes sense in playing the Brewers and Cardinals in money line parlay.

CFB Pre-Season Magazines- Part Dos

In part two of our article about college football pre-season magazines, we’ll take a gander at the other five conferences, the Big Ten, Pac-10, SEC, MAC and Sun Belt. Three of the five leagues have unanimous choices, with a couple up for grabs. Read on to learn more.


Big Ten
1)Ohio State
2)Wisconsin
3)Illinois
4)Penn State
5)Michigan
6)Michigan State
7)Iowa
8)Purdue
9)Northwestern
10)Indiana
11)Minnesota

Analysis- In this beleaguered conference, everyone loves Ohio State, predicts Wisconsin for second (except for one magazine) and the rest of the league is somewhat up for grabs. The Buckeyes have three road encounters of note, at USC, at Wisconsin and at Illinois. If they come away unscathed and are undefeated, they likely will be in Miami for another championship try. The Badgers have the most talent coming back of the next tier of teams, with Illinois and Penn State right behind. Michigan is in the unlikely group of ordinary, of which only Indiana and Minnesota are not listed. The Big Ten is rated third in the nation in conferences, quite a ways behind the SEC and the Big 12.

Pac-10
1)USC
2)Arizona State
3)Oregon
4)California
5)UCLA
6)Arizona
7)Oregon State
8)Washington
9)Stanford
10)Washington State

Analysis – For the most part, the Pac-10 has always been about talented signal callers. With USC again the only squad thought to rule the roost in this 10-team league, even they have doubters if Mark Sanchez is the man for the job. The Trojans have superior talent on defense, compared to almost anyone in the Pac-10. Quarterback Rudy Carpenter of Arizona State is preseason first team choice in the conference and is among the reasons they were picked second in all but periodical. Oregon, California and UCLA round out the next grouping, all with question marks at quarterback and holes in various spots. Arizona is given a chance to crack into the upper division by a few; however must fill defensive voids or coach Bob Stoops might be on the stoop looking for next employment. The rest of the league doesn’t receive much respect, nor does it deserve it.

SEC East
1)Georgia
2)Florida
3)Tennessee
4)So. Carolina
5)Kentucky
6)Vanderbilt

SEC West
1)LSU
2)Auburn
3)Alabama
4)Mississippi State
5)Arkansas
6)Mississippi

Analysis –The SEC could be in for another wild ride in 2008, based on how the experts see things. Georgia and Florida took all the first place votes, with the Bulldogs earning the most at 66.7 percent. The Gators could surpass Georgia, as toughest road game is at Tennessee, while Mark Richt’s team is at South Carolina, at LSU and at Auburn. The rest of East saw teams fitting into particular slots. LSU and Auburn split being the top choice in the SEC West, with LSU finishing higher because StatFox Edge gave Tommy Tuberville’s squad a third place finish. Even though it’s in September, the winner of LSU at Auburn grabs the upper hand. Alabama is expected to make noise with improving talent and General, whoops, coach Nick Saban will be cracking the whip. The rest of the West hopes to find way to minor bowl bids.

MAC-East
1)Miami-O
2)Bowling Green
3)Buffalo
4)Temple
5)Kent State
6)Ohio U
7)Akron

MAC –West
1)Central Michigan
2)Ball State
3)Western Michigan
4)Toledo
5)Northern Illinois
6)Eastern Michigan

Analysis- Opinions almost always vary in the MAC, which tends to have wild swings. One aspect not expected to change is Miami-O and Central Michigan to meet again for MAC championship. The Redhawks will have to rely on a very good defense, as coach Steve Montgomery tries to add facets of offense together. Others give Bowling Green a chance, picked twice to be MAC East champs, with 17 returning starters. The Falcons fate could be determined even before playing a MAC encounter, with strenuous non-conference slate. Thoughts on Kent State and Buffalo were all over the place. The Golden Flashes were picked from second to last and improving Buffalo, third to last. Central Michigan can score, having all-everything Dan LeFevour at quarterback. If the Chippewas find any defense this season, they are prohibitive favorites. If CMU slips even a little, Ball State lead by quarterback Nate Davis will displace Central Mich. as champs. All 11 starters are back on offense for the Cardinals, with defense the conundrum. With Ball State at CMU in later November, oddsmakers start at 76 points for total and work upward.

Sun Belt
1)Florida Atlantic
2)Troy
3)UL-Monroe
4)Louisiana-Lafayette
5)Arkansas State
6)Middle Tennessee State
7)North Texas
8)Florida International

Analysis- In Sun Belt country, this race is thought to be like a 1-3 favorite for a horse race, as defending champs Florida Atlantic is far ahead of the competition with 19 starters back. No less than eight players for the Owls are considered to be first team all-Sun Belt. Troy is the clear second choice; however must replace QB Omar Haugabook. UL-Monroe is curious choice for third with potential to move up. They won five of last six (beat Alabama 21-14 on the road) and has tremendous speed at skill positions and other areas. With less murderous schedule to start the year and aforementioned teams at home in back-to-back weeks, just maybe the Warhawks could surprise. Everyone agrees North Texas and Florida International are in for long seasons.

Free Baseball Selections at 3DW

It seems very odd; twice our top trend has been to play against Baltimore on Sunday’s and they have won both times, accounting for three of their wins all season. We’re not silly, no more playing against the O’s on this day. After yesterday’s easy win, today’s Top System is 86 percent in over a decade of plays. Monday’s Top Trend takes us to the finale of San Fran and Atlanta series and the Free Play takes a look at hot-hitting underdog. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Seattle, with a money line of +150 or more, who are meager AL offensive team, scoring 4.2 runs or less runs a game, against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or less) like the White Sox, with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season. This system is a salivating 49-8, 86 percent the last 11 years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Barry Zito and San Francisco are 3-16 when he is starting pitcher in day games.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sort of a mixed bag from our experts, thus I'll step up go out on a limb and call for a hot-hitting Baltimore bunch to win as underdog. They have averaging 8.5 runs per game in last 10 outings and better than 13 hits a contest during this stretch. Let's see what happens.

CFB Pre-Season Magazines Add Intrigue

One of the joys of most anything in life is the anticipation of an event. You can take the time to be excited, prepare and look forward to what will be taking place. An annual right of summer is to gather the various college football magazines and go over the predictions from each conference. As a writer and handicapper, I have been pouring over data for months now and have strong feelings and opinions about how the various conferences races could play out. Part of winning in the fall in college football is having the information necessary to place yourself into a position to win. This is why I annually make pilgrimages to the various book stores to purchase all the magazines containing college football material.

The reason for doing has three distinct purposes. The first is I’m seeking information on the coaches and teams I may have missed in my own personal research. No matter how hard or far you dig, you will always find other useful nuggets. Next is learning about all the players, particularly the difference makers on each team, which is a powerful tool to understand if a team may be over or under-rated before the season starts. Lastly, just to see what other so-called experts think in making predictions. For example, why would a couple of magazines pick Memphis first in the Conference USA West Division, when three different ones have them finishing fourth? This is worth reading to understand why they would have such a difference of opinion and if points are valid or just baloney. Plus this allows one to find strong situations to place futures wagers at places like Sportsbook.com on particular teams.


Listed below is the accumulation of all the conferences and the teams ranked in order taking all the pre-season publications that were acquired, along with further analysis. Today we will at the ACC, Big East, MWC, Big 12, WAC, C-USA and Independents.

ACC -Atlantic
1)Clemson
2)Wake Forest
3)Florida State
4)Boston College
5)Maryland
6)NC State


ACC – Coastal
1)Virginia Tech
2)North Carolina
3)Miami-Fl
4)Georgia Tech
5)Virginia
6)Duke

Analysis- The perception of this league has taken a major hit, having last won a BCS bowl game in 1999, when Florida State won national championship. Clemson and Virginia Tech are unanimous choices to win respective divisions, though both have question marks coming into the season. The Hokies should have the easier time as only North Carolina is thought to be a team on the rise, with the others either unchanged of falling. Tommy Bowden’s Clemson club has the most talent, which has been the case in other years also, when they failed to meet expectations. Wake Forest has nine starters back on defense and QB Riley Skinner and will host Clemson in early October. With the improvement the Demon Deacons continue to make, they are becoming more of a play against team because of ill-suited favorite roles. Florida State and the rest of the teams in the Atlantic Division are treading water at best.

Big East
1)West Virginia
2)South Florida
3)Pittsburgh
4)Connecticut
5)Rutgers
6)Cincinnati
7)Louisville
8)Syracuse

Analysis- West Virginia is the accordant choice by everyone to be the BCS representative again in 2008. The Mountaineers lost talent on offense at skill positions, however, maintain in the areas that count most, with quarterback Pat White and four offensive linemen back. The defense will need some work with seven new starters, with program still carrying enough depth moving ahead. South Florida received every second place vote except one and is believed to be the only real competition for West Virginia, with outside chance to steal Big East crown if the ‘Teers don’t adjust to new coach Bill Stewart. Pittsburgh doesn’t gather a lot of support, since all they have done in the Dave Wannstedt era is underachieve. Connecticut brings back 17 starters, yet most don’t believe vanilla offense can offset a solid defense again. Louisville has fallen this far this quick, Yikes!

Mountain West
1)BYU
1)Utah
3)TCU
4)New Mexico
5)Wyoming
6)Air Force
7)San Diego State
8)Colorado State
9)UNLV

Analysis –BYU is prohibitive choice; yet not unanimous favorite to execute three-peat, being Mountain West champions. The Cougars have 10 starters back on offense, from one of the best in the country and are thinking BCS bowl as well. Games at Washington and home to UCLA will provide early answer about BCS prospects and conference road trips to TCU and rival Utah will provide the rest of the equation. Utah picked up a few first place and third place votes. The Utes receiving first place votes is somewhat predicated on hosting both BYU and TCU. The Horned Frogs should be just fine on offense, but have holes to fill in 4-2-5 base defense. Coach Rocky Long usually finds a way to earn a bowl berth and many feel this is Wyoming’s best chance for bowl in four years.

Big 12 North
1)Missouri
2)Kansas
3)Colorado
4)Nebraska
5)Kansas State
6)Iowa State

Big 12 South
1)Oklahoma
2)Texas
3)Texas Tech
4)Oklahoma State
5)Texas A&M
6)Baylor

Analysis – With apologies to Iowa State, the Big 12 should go down as the Year of the Quarterback in 2008. Pundits see a return engagement of Chase Daniel of Missouri and Sam Bradford of Oklahoma dueling for the conference title as division champions. Missouri has 10 starters returning on defense and almost every void filled on offense except running back. Kansas should be right behind the Tigers, in the North Division, yet doesn’t figure to pass them, receiving conference schedule upgrade, which includes Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech from the South. Colorado and Nebraska should be improved; it just won’t show up in the standings. The Texas offense will score points, nevertheless are on fourth straight new defensive coordinator in Will Muschamp, from a defense that allowed 35 points per game in last five outings. Texas Tech is slated for third, and has 36 players back from two-deep roster. Oklahoma State and Texas A&M are very close, with whatever defense plays better moving up.


WAC
1)Fresno State
2)Boise State
3)Nevada
4)Hawaii
5)Louisiana Tech
6)New Mexico St.
7)San Jose State
8)Idaho
9)Utah State

Analysis- Fresno State deserves credit for helping establish the WAC as legitimate league, playing excellent non-conference opponents tough and beating enough of them to be noticed. One missing piece for the Bulldogs has been winning WAC crown, since last sharing in 1999. They receive 70 percent of the votes this season and will have 16 talents starters returning for coach Pat Hill. To win, Bulldogs must avoid the game(s) they always mange to lose in conference. If Fresno State does slip, Boise State is expected to take their place, though recruiting efforts seem to have suffered. The Broncos do have most of the league contenders on the blue turf, however. Nevada is set to score points like usual and the fortunes of Hawaii will take a tumble.


Conference USA East Division
1)Central Florida
2)East Carolina
3)Memphis
4)So. Mississippi
5)Marshall
6)UAB

Conference USA West Division
1)Tulsa
2)Houston
3)UTEP
4)SMU
5)Tulane
6)Rice

Analysis- This conference has become largely irrelevant in the national scope, with its biggest showcase being its C-USA title game. This league has replaced the old WAC conference from 1962-1998, known for little defense and high scoring affairs. Tulsa was on every ballot to win the Western Division and Houston was on all but one to finish right behind the Hurricane. The Eastern side of the league is more convoluted. Memphis gathered the most first place votes and also the most fourth place votes, suggesting anything is possible for the Tigers team. Central Florida more or less won by default, having the same number of first place tallies as East Carolina, just more second place votes. Besides Tulsa, the only thing magazine writers agreed on was UAB will finish last in division.


Independents
1)Notre Dame
2)Navy
3)Army
4)Western Kentucky


Analysis- Depending on who is serving the kool-aid, Notre Dame will finish anywhere from 6-6 to 10-2. Ken Nuimatalolo wears the main head set after a decade under Paul Johnson guidance and will try to extend five consecutive Commander-in-Chief trophies and bowl game streak. Army’s going back to wishbone, essentially wasting the first year under coach Stan Brock. Western Kentucky has one warm-up season as independent before heading off to Sun Belt.

Tommorrow - Part 2

Free Baseball Plays on Sunday

The L.A. Dodgers bullpen cost us a 3-1 record on Saturday, but as we all know, things (fill in your own word) happen. Today we have awesome System that is sensational 87.1 percent since 2006. We actually revisit a Top Trend and it will look familiar. Mark from the Left Coast Connection has been on fire and is unloading with a monster baseball selection. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like the Pirates, with a money line of +175 to +250, where team's hitters draw three walks or less a game on the season, against opponent with a hot starting pitcher like Johan Santana, with a WHIP under 1.000 over his last five starts. This galvanic system is 34-5, 87.1 percent the last three years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Baltimore Orioles actually won a few weeks ago on this day; however are still 2-17 playing on Sunday’s.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Mark of the LCC has heated up like the Las Vegas August sun and is on 13-2 run in all sports. Today he has huge play on the Angels.

Free Baseball and NFL plays for Saturday

Our run line expert from the LCC has another Free play and we are offering a consensus selection in the NFL. The perfect Trend is back and has been nearly perfect all year hitting 12 of last 13. Though the top System lost yesterday, we uncovered an 80 percent play to consider today. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like the A’s with a money line of +100 or higher, who are bad AL offensive team scoring 4.2 or less runs a game, against a team with a good bullpen like Chicago (ERA of 3.75 or less), with a starting pitcher like John Danks who gives up 5.5 or less hits a start. This system is a tantalizing 20-5 since 2004.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The L.A. Dodgers are 11-0 against the money line in home games after two straight wins by two runs or less since 2006.

Free Selections -3) Our LCC run line expert goes for two straight here at 3Daily Winners, taking the Phillies -1.5 (+110). The consensus on the NFL tonight from the Left Coast Connection is to take Denver minus the points.

Betting on College Football Coaches Records

Slowly but surely college football is creeping up, with the games about to start in less than two weeks. All are armed with hopes of a successful football campaign, based on whatever standards have been set at each university. Coaches after a long off season, are fired up to put together teams, access talent and see what players worked hard to improve for upcoming season. For those that love to wager on college football, it comes in handy to know what particular coaches do when placed in certain circumstances. Most bettors might know how the head coach does where they live, or even the coaches within the nearby conference. Only a very select few would be able to recall all the different variables from all the head coaches at the Football Bowl Subdivision.

Here is a breakdown of the top coaches in several areas based on latest runs. (Smart idea to save this article for future use)

Coaches with best home ATS records-

Frank Solich – Ohio U -10-4
Tom Amstutz-Toledo – 25-11
Al Groh – Virginia - 28-14
Kirk Ferentz – Iowa – 36-19
Randy Edsall -UConn- 23-13

Percentage wise, Frank Beamer doesn’t rank as high, nevertheless he made a number of bettors big money, even overcoming large favorite roles at 62-46 ATS. A few other big name coaches standout, more for mediocrity. Phil Fuller is 47-49 ATS at Knoxville and Jeff Tedford is mere 17-18 ATS with the tree-huggers at Berkeley. Charlie Weis of Notre Dame is a lousy 7-13 ATS at South Bend.

Coaches with best road ATS records-

Skip Holtz – ECU- 15-5
Steve Spurrier – So. Carolina – 11-5
Mark Richt –Georgia – 28-16
Charlie Weatherbie – UL-Monroe – 22-13
Pete Carroll –USC – 28-19

Mike Belotti of Oregon deserves mention at 43-32 ATS, as does Jim Grobe at Wake Forest, as his squads have made life miserable for home teams with 25-16 ATS mark. UNLV is going nowhere unless they start winning real soon and coach Mike Sanford’s clubs are 3-14 ATS on the road. Marshall’s Mark Snyder team has not been a Thundering Herd as a visitor, with 4-12 ATS record. While Toledo’s Amstutz may have great spread home marks, they are pushovers on the road at 16-29 against the spread.

Coaches with best favorite ATS records-

Dick Tomey –S.J. State - 8-1
Mark Mangini – Kansas – 20-7
Chris Ault- Nevada – 18-8
Randy Edsall – UConn- 19-11
Bronco Mendenhall – BYU- 17-9

Half the reason Tommy Bowden is under fire so much is 29-39 ATS record when listed as favorite, as backers lose money with great regularity. Mike Price was loved when he arrived at UTEP; however the price has not been right when backing the Miners as faves with 9-16 ATS record. Cal’s Tedford has covered just 26 of 54 of these roles and Grobe of the Demon Deacons is poor chalk coach at 13-22 ATS.

Coaches with best underdog ATS records-

Skip Holtz – ECU- 17-5
Mike Price – UTEP -13-6
Bob Stoops – Oklahoma- 12-6
Jim Grobe – Wake Forest – 30-15
Tommy Tuberville –Auburn- 22-14

Why so many that wager prefer underdogs are how certain teams play in these situations. Clemson with Bowden at the helm is 23-15 ATS and Pat Hill of Fresno State (34-22 ATS) made his reputation as being an underdog coach, winning numerous times outright against bigger name schools. The Ducks under Bellotti have taken flight with 33-21 spread mark as dogs. Mr. Mike “I’m a man!” Gundy has had Oklahoma State take on girlie-man appearances with 7-12 ATS record as underdogs.

With college football adding a 12th game to the schedule, the number of weeks with rest has been cut. Even so, some coaches know how to manipulate rest to teams advantage, while others don’t have a clue.

Best coaches with rest ATS records-

Mike Riley - Oregon State – 11-3
Pete Carroll- USC -17-5
Mark Mangino- Kansas – 7-2
Rich Brooks – Kentucky – 7-3
Mark Richt – Georgia – 13-5

Worst coaches with rest ATS records-

Gregg Brandon – Bowling Green -1-8
Jim Grobe – WF- 3-8
Larry Blakeney –Troy- 3-8
Mike Leach – Texas Tech – 5-9
Tommy Bowden – Clemson 6-13

Coaches on notable ATS streaks-

Les Miles of LSU is 11-1 ATS versus non-conference opponents.
Turner Gill of Buffalo is 10-2 ATS when matched against team with below .500.
Rocky Long of New Mexico is 11-0 ATS with rest against Mountain West Conference foes.
Tommy West of Memphis is 2-10 ATS as home favorite facing non-conference opponents.
Urban Meyer of Florida is 0-7 ATS on the road after winning two games straight up.
Al Groh of Virginia is 0-15 ATS on the road off a win and cover.

Record Update at 3DW

With so many new viewers, thought I’d update records for all to see and let everyone understand the value of this blog since we started.

System Plays -48-24, 66.7 percent
Top Trends -43-31, 58.1 percent
Free Plays – 52-38, 57.7 percent

We are 8th at Cappers Watchdog (see banner add for details) in MLB since joining and 7th in NFL Preseason. We are 4th at Free Sports Monitor in NFLX and 7th in Free baseball picks at The Sports Eye.

Behind the scenes the Left Coast Connection consensus plays are amazing 86-40, 68.2 percent and have occasionally been on this blog during baseball season. You will be able to purchase them here once college and pro football start for real, at very low price.

Free Plays Back at 3Daily Winners

One last apology on not being able to supply plays, thus we pick up from here. Today we have system that is 86 percent winner over last 11 years and involves the Yankees. Top Trend is a beauty and talks about how Boston fairs in unique spot. Today Free Play is from LCC run line specialist and can be a way to reduce juice and still win. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON home favorites like the Yankees with a money line of -175 to -250, who are excellent fielding team, averaging an error every other game on the season, against opponent with a starting pitcher like Gil Meche, who walked five or more hitter’s last outing. This fairly complex system is rewarding 43-7, 86 percent since 1997. (Thanks StatFox)

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Boston Red Sox are 15-2 against the money line in home games vs. terrible power-hitting teams - averaging three or less home runs every four games this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) One of the Left Coast Connection members is a run line player exclusively and is on Minnesota at -1.5 (-130)

Bonus System – Talked all year about teams with 10 or more hits in three straight games and playing against them on the road in next contest. Record to date of these teams is 31-52, -18.55 units and the Cubs, Arizona and Baltimore all fit this system tonight.

Like Aerosmith - Back in the Saddle Again

Hello again everyone, sorry for the undistinguished message above. I have an older laptop I use when I’m one the road and thought I could use no problem to keep up with writing this blog and other things. This turned out not to be true as the laptop or WiFi at the hotels were not a good match and I was powerless to do anything about. If I had known this would have occurred, would have informed everybody about what I was doing. Again sorry, it won’t happen again. Besides vacation time is officially all used up.

Myself and a friend ventured to SoCal to take a baseball vacation. This fine fellow, like me is sports nut and enjoys traveling around seeking new adventures, like visiting baseball stadiums. Here is what we saw.

Day One and Two

Arrived in Los Angeles and stayed not far from Universal Studios. They have this City Walk area that is a lot of fun and we sauntered around there for awhile soaking up the ambience and a few other things. Took him to the dark side, where there is a Raiders football store. That’s right, nothing but Raiders merchandise, black and silver everything, including Al Davis pictures wearing the same warm-up suit through the decades.(Not actually true)

Went down Sunset Strip and saw famous places like the Laugh Factory and Whiskey-A-GoGo and all the people sitting outside eating dinner at 10:00 PM. For Midwesterners, this is a REAL different lifestyle.

Next day went to world famous Santa Monica Pier and drove north to Malibu, eventually stopping at Duke’s, a great spot, literally right on the ocean for eats and drinks. (Overheard this was the place Mel Gibson last was before DUI arrest)

Went to Phillies at Dodgers game. Maybe is was the travel, but Philadelphia was flatter than the rolled out Santa Monica beach, with horrible body language throughout the game, players walking around acting like they didn’t care. Shortstop Jimmy Rollins waved at more than one ground ball and covered second base on steal attempts like am eight-grader, instead of an All-Star. The Dodgers white uniforms are even more striking in person, equally as white as any Hollywood starlet having teeth whiten for that full mouth smile.

Dodger Stadium is big, with multiple decks and very good sight lines. The parking lots are gi-normous (biggest in baseball) and yes they are a late arriving crowd. A good experience, but we both agreed not great, as first-times to Chavez Ravine.

Day Three

Traveled south to Venice Beach and walked by all the shops and sites this area had to offer. This is a must stop for any visitor to the area. My friend Chip (not real name) and I both agreed if anyone would want to drop out of sight and likely never be seen again, you don’t have to leave the country, just blend in to the counter-culture of Venice Beach and you will NEVER be heard from again. There is a number of INTERESTING characters masquerading as retailers and performance artists. One fellow caught our eye with this catching tune, “Have a Merry Happy Christmas, since I’ll be drunk all day.” Surprised he doesn’t have record deal yet being in L.A. area. Long Beach area is must see, having plenty of cool areas to visit along the waterfront.

Having been to the Big A in Anaheim previously, I knew it was pretty sharp ball yard, though older. Chip (once again not real name) was immediately struck how the fans are dressed like going to football game. We guesstimated 75 percent of the people walking into the Stadium were wearing Angels gear. Of course, we saw the source of this affection, as the Angels gift shop, which might be 1000 square feet, had eight checkouts humming with people buying Halos merchandise. No recession here. Granted having the best baseball team in 2008 certainly helps, but this place was rockin’ as fans really get into the game. The Angels took three over the wall and beat sorry Seattle.

Note to owner Artie Moreno- Artie we loved what you have done to make this a beacon of baseball, but please paint the Big A structure outside the stadium, the paint is so faded it looks like a 1960 Chevy El Camino. Went to Hooters after the game, the food, drinks and women, not good.

Day Four

Headed south, with San Diego next destination. Drove along Pacific Coast Highway, seeing all the surfer dudes in the water waiting for waves. Went to La Jolla to view The Cove and ended up walking about the equivalent of 15 miles, (bad parking spot on my part and modest exaggeration) and had lunch downtown. Went to Coronado Island to take in Hotel Del and sit by the ocean again, in incredibly relaxing area.

Left there to take in Petco Park and what a unique place. Built in the downtown waterfront district, the Padres home is a wonderful and unique modern park. Children’s sand play area and benches for fans in right-centerfield, this place is loaded with features we both have never seen. Perfectly blending the local landscape with modern touches, this place is awesome. If you are in the San Diego area in the summer time, definitely a must see facility. The Padres stink, lacking talent at most positions on the field.

This explains what I did and where I was. One more thing to cover, never ask somebody what their favorite college uniform is, it’s often conversation killer. I asked my friend and he responded with Penn State. The only comeback for that response is to change the subject. Next I asked him what his favorite kind of vanilla ice cream was.

Back in the saddle for the rest of baseball and football.

Sorry wish I could make it work.

I am sorry. There won't be any free selection until Friday. My laptop is not able to get a strong internet connection.

Strong MLB System and Trend for Sunday

Yesterday was one of those days, had a weird feeling while placing this information that it might not be a great day. This turned out to be true with 0-2 record. Today feel much better, starting with a MLB System that is a high quality 84.7 percent winner. The Top Trend heads to the Brew City with useful tip about Milwaukee and Paul Buck has been on good run, winning 13 of his last 17 selections. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more like Atlanta, who average less than a home run a game, against a starting pitcher like Brandon Webb, who gives up less than a home run every other start, after five straight games where they stranded seven or less runners on base. This system is a sultry 50-9 since O.J. Simpson was found liable in civil court for the death of Ron Goldman and for the battery of Nicole Brown Simpson.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Milwaukee is 22-3 against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck has been on a nice streak of 13-4 and is backing Cincinnati to finally wake up and nab a win against Houston.

Sports Selections on August 9 from 3Daily Winners

As KC and the Sunshine Band used to say, “That’s the way we like it” after another 3-0 day here at 3DW. Our last 34 plays are now 26-8, 76.4 percent. Atlanta has beaten Arizona twice in their series; today’s Top Trend looks at if they can do it again. The LCC was correct on the Dodgers last night and has another consensus selection. No great systems in baseball, thus have unofficial one to ponder in the NFL. Good Luck.

Free Football System -1) PLAY UNDER on any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points in the first two weeks of the NFL Preseason. Teams that fit are Indy, Dallas and Washington. This system is 44-14, 72.4 percent. Please note this will not be official system play.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Atlanta is 1-12 against the money line in road games after a win by four runs or more this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection has seven bettors on the Chicago Cubs today and not a soul on the Cardinals.

Free Baseball Selections at 3Daily Winners

It’s been awhile, but it was due to happen, we finally had a losing 1-2 day. The Top Trend lost for the first time in eight days and comes back with perfect angle, which have hit nine of ten. A top notch System has several variables, with the day of the week being one of them and has won over 84 percent of the time. The Left Coast Connection has supplied many consensus winners as Free plays and has another. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST home underdogs, like Seattle with a money line of +125 to +175, who are below average AL hitting team (.265 or lower BA) against a team with a good bullpen like Tampa Bay, with an ERA under 3.75, playing on Friday. This system is ruthless 39-7, 84.8 percent the last 11 years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Minnesota is 12-0 (+13.9 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .393 or better over their last three games this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection has eight members on the Dodgers with nary a soul backing the Giants. Like yesterday, divided opinions on the NFL tonight.

Broadway Brett affecting NFL

The Brett Favre soap opera has come to a conclusion and it couldn’t end soon enough for most people. The Green Bay Packers have traded Farve to the Jets for a conditional fourth round pick that should at the very least be a second round selection. Unfortunately, this will be play out longer in Wisconsin than most of the new shows that will be debuting on the various television networks this fall. This whole circumstance could have been avoided if Favre and the Green Bay Packers had acted like smart business people, interested in win-win scenario, instead of narcissistic individuals, playing to the crowd. This whole mess will end up having an impact on several teams, leading one to be cautious about making win total wagers.

Starting with Favre, his behavior off the field the several seasons has left a lot to be desired. The constant flip-flopping of retirement talk has made even boxers blush by comparison. In fact, its surprising Republicans haven’t come out and said Barack Obama is like Brett Favre, wavering on decisions.

Favre has given his all for the Green and Gold, no denying that, yet his constant off-field self-induced dramas has made him the butt of jokes. You have to ask yourself, why Favre would go on Fox’s Greta Van Susteren show. This is sports news, not national news in a traditional sense. Plus, calling out his employers, not feeling loved and wanted, despite making 12 million a year and having about 90 percent of the people in the state in your corner, no matter how many slip-ups over the years. Flying back to be at Lambeau Field for the team’s first official controlled scrimmage with Aaron Rodgers under center last Sunday, told everyone about how important Favre felt about his own shadow.

It’s not like the Green Bay front office is blame-less. General Manager Ted Thompson has never publicly stated any ill-will towards Favre, but has never gone out of this too praise him a great deal, more talking about the team in football-speak. His ridiculous stance of not wanting to Favre back is plain idiotic, since even if Favre were to play back to 2005-06 levels, he’s still in the top half of all starting quarterbacks in the NFL. Where do you or any other GM believes Aaron Rodgers ranks coming into 2008?

The sense you get is Thompson has done a good job rebuilding the Packers into a playoff team and he has fairly high opinion of himself for doing so. His Seattle days left more than a few feathers ruffled and he seems to have the full support of coach Mike McCarthy. This off-season, all of us have seen and heard more from McCarthy than any of his previous two seasons in Packer-land and it’s quite clear, he has his coach-speak down cold. The whole “80-man team” works well in July and August, but what about a divided locker after a few losses early in the season.

Kudos to Aaron Rodgers for being the best adult in the room. His situation was almost impossible after Favre retired, now with this, wow. If adversity determines the strength of a man, than Rodgers could probably win the gold medal for “clean and jerk” portion of the Beijing Olympics right today and the regular season is a month away. He’s done everything flawlessly off the field, however will be judged with greater scrutiny for what he does on the gridiron.

It is of note; the Packers have stayed at 9-1 odds to be NFC Super Bowl representative, however have been passed by Minnesota (5-1) and New Orleans (7-1) and tied by Philadelphia and Seattle as possible Super Bowl teams. Green Bay’s win total has also dropped from opening of Un9 to even money (-115 each side) at 8.5 wins at every sportsbook I could find.

Packer players have talked about being tired of all this talk about one man, who just recently became officially un-retired. What happens if the team gets off to slow start as Steve Makinen from StatFox.com wondered? “Opening Minnesota game has to be emotional on several levels, followed by a short week at sometimes challenging Detroit. Next is home game with Dallas. I’m not saying a 0-3 start will happen, but if it did, you could likely pull the plug on 2008 dreams.”

Tampa Bay figured to be the favorite all along, however something just didn’t click and will be determined in the days ahead. The New York Jets made plenty of noise in the off-season, with signings and now have made the play to knock the Giants off the front page of the sports section. A reasonable argument can be made that the Flyboys offensive skill players are every bit as good as the Packers with receiver Laveranues Coles and running back Thomas Jones leading the way. New York’s offensive line has to be considered above average with youthful talent blended with All-Pro free agent Alan Faneca. Sportsbooks across the world immediately pulled the Jets season total of wins and other long term projection odds. It would seem having the Flyboys at 7.5 or 8 wins, is looking a whole lot better today than on original purchase.

Minnesota thought they were seriously in the running, but underestimated Green Bay’s stubborn in keeping number four out of the division. The Vikings can say what they want, but having arguably the best offensive and defensive lines in the NFL, playing six games against Rodgers, Jon Kitna and T-Rex/Orton, would have made them feel pretty secure having the grey-speckled signal caller under center and improved their odds dramatically as NFC Central and NFC rep down in Tampa in February.

At this juncture, rehashing what should have occurred won’t change what did. Nonetheless, the miscalculations and ego-driven behavior will have direct impact on how the 2008 season will play out for all the teams involved in this fracas. It’s a sad day for Green Bay, but Broadway Brett is the new center of attention in the Big Apple.

Free Baseball Picks at 3Daily Winners

Hard to get too upset when a 2-1 day lowers your average, but that’s what has happened at 3Daily Winners, now a paltry (?) 22-6, 78.5 percent in last 28 Free Selections. Sal from the LCC has what he believes is another Free Winner out West. The Top Trends have won seven straight and looks at Rocky Mountain matchup. Super System play came up short and has intriguing play at 52-11 up today. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like the A’s with a money line of +100 or higher, who are poor AL offensive team scoring 4.2 runs a game or less against a team with a very good bullpen like Toronto (ERA of 3.33 or less), with a starting pitcher like Justin Duchscherer who gives up 5.5 or less hits a start. This scintillating system is 52-11, 82.5 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Washington is 3-13 in 2008 when Jason Bergmann is starting pitcher.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal’s tremendous baseball exploits continue after yesterday’s winner and he is on Arizona to rebound versus Atlanta. FYI- The Left Coast Connection members are all over the board on tonight’s NFL preseason games, thus nothing to report.

Free Picks back at 3Daily Winners

Back to deliver more winning information on 20-5 run, we’ve found a Super System that hits 80 percent right on the nose, on a large number of plays. Top Trend returns and it turns out to be one of those perfect, 100 percent angles. Sal from the LCC was hot in Vegas, will he continue, see below. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON All favorites like Arizona with a money line of -150 or more, having won two of their last three games and is marginal winning team (51% to 54%), playing a weak team (38 to 46%) like Pittsburgh. This play comes up fairly frequently on the last five years with 140 plays, winning an astonishing 112 times. Reasoning is based on two teams not that far apart in terms of record, have a significant money line differential, suggesting reasons why a slightly above average team would be such a large favorite.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Minnesota is 11-0 against the money line with an on base percentage of .393 or better over their last three games this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal off a number of winners in Las Vegas, is playing the White Sox to win as Free pick here.

Back from Vegas

After little sleep, too many adult beverages, it’s back to reality. No doubt things are quieter these days in Sin City. The economy has had an impact, even in Las Vegas. Many more food deals, tons more one and two-cent slot machines and happy hours in most places we ventured. Normally craps is very good to me, however, only found one really hot table and came up a little short overall. I’d never played Let it Ride before, but Sal convinced me to try it and generally thought it was a pretty solid game and won a little. One of the guys pounded a five-team baseball parlay and hit it, wagering on Washington, Cincy, Arizona, Cleveland and Angels on Monday. Thou not something I would do, props to him on fantastic 29-1 payout. This was legit, since I saw the ticket.

Speaking of legit went and saw Carrot Top. The guy was hilarious with all his props and kept the jokes coming rabid fire. Everyone agreed, best stand-up they had seen in sometime. Went to Hawaiian Tropic restaurant after seeing something on the Travel Channel (yes, other things in life besides just sports, just not many) about this place. Despite girls walking around in bikini-tops and short cover-ups, no way to hide bad food. Calamari was the worst I’ve had in years and everyone agreed this place was pretty bad. Girls – Yes, Food – NO!

Mandalay Bay put in new bar called Eye-Candy, you can figure out the rest. The Palazzo is newer joint, next to the Venetian and though nice, didn’t grab anybody. Took my car out to Red Rock Hotel since nobody had been their besides me, everyone very impressed and quite a bit of action, being 15-20 minutes from The Strip.

Looking forward to getting back into routine, at least for a few days, more on that later.

Be Smart in Betting NFL Pre-Season

Many professional bettors and those that wager significant amounts of money on NFL football have differing opinions on this topic. There are those that see this as a real opportunity to build up a bankroll, taking advantage of lines they consider weak, especially totals. Others take the opposite approach and are extremely selective or pass all together, with too many variables that come into place which do not give them the advantage they are used to holding. While nobody is right or wrong based on personal taste, there are definitely wise precautions to take and enhance your position and make additional cash.

Never bet just to bet

One of the gentlemen from Las Vegas I spoke to said, “They line up at the windows like salivating dogs, dying to place that first football wager. I sit back and laugh my ass off watchin’ those fools so damn anxious to give away their money.” His point is well taken, the first couple of games are not necessarily the best games to bet on, be selective.

Know coaching tendencies

This is big, since August NFL football is completely different from the regular season. Coach like Tony Dungy of Indianapolis uses this month to prepare team for the regular season, not to win games. He plays it more vanilla than his public persona and the Colts play accordingly with 3-10 ATS record in last 13 outings. No matter whom the coach is; Dallas is another team that doesn’t place much stock in winning and is 16-29-2 ATS as a favorite in the preseason.

Other coaches want to establish a winning atmosphere from day one. Bill Belichick is one such coach and he is 7-0-1 ATS in week 1. Denver, with Mike Shanahan and all the coaches that came before him have wanted to win from the get-go and are 22-6 ATS for that first preseason game. The Broncos don’t mess around either off a loss, being 12-2-1 ATS if they were beaten as a favorite.

First year coaches and those feeling the pressure of poor previous seasons, will turn up the heat on players and demand immediate results to let the players know who is in charge or things have to change in order to have greater success. These head coaches want more of a sense of urgency.

Seek the right spot to find winners

Sal from the Left Coast Connection said this, “You’ll find plenty of gold backing teams winning or losing by 12 or more points. When teams win big, coaches will play nice to keep the players happy and they’re often unmotivated in next game, love to play against those teams. Conversely, a team plays badly, the head coach will become a lunatic and the players will go out and beat the crap out of next opponent just to shut the coach up.” Great example of this last August was Baltimore destroyed Philadelphia 29-3 at home as three-point favorites. The next contest, still playing at home, they were out-rushed 182-75 by the New York Giants and lost 13-12 as field goal favorites.

Look for bad scheduling spots

Last season the Green Bay Packers dismantled Seattle 48-13 on a Saturday in the second week of the preseason. The so-called all important third game is thought to be the dress rehearsal for the regular season, however the Pack had to come back just five days later to play Jacksonville in a nationally televised encounter and were defeated 21-13, as coach Mike McCarthy decided to not play regulars as much and word leaked out. Green Bay went from a 2.5-point favorite to three-point home underdog.

Read various team pages

As opposed to the regular season, when every coach become more tight-lipped then Teller (the guy that doesn’t talk) of Penn and Teller, coaches will openly discuss with the media their plans from game to game and provide information that provides insights to all the teams. Pick your favorite site and read up. One Vegas insider confided, “I wouldn’t bet a nickel unless I knew what the coach was thinking (in the preseason).”

Understand money management

Nobody will get rich betting NFL football this time of year, however serious damage could be done to a bankroll by being foolhardy trying to cash in. Set strict limits on each wager and NEVER deviate. Take your winnings into the regular season to have more to work with, instead of foolishly doubling down on a streak of good luck.

3Daily Winners take Time-Out

The 3Daily Winners crew is heading to Vegas to hit the tables and have a LITTLE FUN. No plays for Sunday for sure, Monday is very possible. Based on Monday night's plans, forget Tuesday, back in the saddle on Wednesday, hopefully with thicker wallets.

Good Luck to all of you.

Free Baseball Selections on Major Roll

You have to admit, this is fun getting Free Plays that are on 18-4 run, including 3-0yesterday. If you liked Friday’s Top System, you will love today’s with 42-5 record. Paul Buck, chief handicapper at 3DW is burning up the base paths and has another Free pick. Top Trends have been hotter than then Bullhead City, AZ and feature Boston. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON all favorites like Milwaukee, with a money line of -175 to -250, with a rested bullpen, that has thrown two innings or less in each of the last two games against opponent after a game where the bullpen threw six or more innings. This unique system is 42-5, 89.4 percent in last 11 years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Pitcher John Lester and Boston are 14-2 in the second half of the season in his career.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck has been smokin’, hitting seven of his last nine MLB plays and is on Minnesota again to scalp the Tribe as his Free Play.

Free Baseball Selections, with Awesome System

Another winning 2-1 day has 3Daily Winners on nice 15-4 run. Today’s Top System is a remarkable 84.4 percent and must be considered. Will the Dodgers bounce back off 2-1 at home to Arizona, read the Top Trend for insight. Paul Buck returns with one his best plays of the day. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON home favorites like Tampa Bay with a money line of -175 to -250, with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL), after allowing two runs or less. This awesome system is 60-11, 84.4 percent. The average differential in these games has been +2.7 runs, plus you have to like the fact the Rays are 40-16 at The Trop.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Los Angeles Dodgers are 3-10 after a one run loss.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck has hit four of his last six MLB plays and is on Minnesota to maul Cleveland as his Free Play.

Free Baseball Selections at 3Daily Winners

After yesterday’s perfect 3-0 day, the 3Daily Winners plays are 13-3 since last Saturday. The LLC has another consensus Free play looking for two in a row. The Top Trends keep winning and showcase the big battle out West in the National League. Top System play takes a look at final White Sox and Twins matchup, with 80+ percent play. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like the White Sox with a money line of +100 or higher, starting a pitcher like John Danks who did not walk a hitter in last outing (six innings), with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 15 games. This system perks up bettor’s days being 37-9 record, 80.4 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Brandon Webb and Arizona are 11-2 in NL West road contests.

Free Baseball Selection -3) After being correct yesterday, five members of the Left Coast Connection have Cardinals as Best Bet, with nobody supporting Atlanta.

2008 Indianapolis Colts Preview

Even off of last year’s stunning playoff loss to San Diego, plenty of excitement abounds the Colts facilities this season. The opening of Lucas Oil Stadium has the town buzzing and Indianapolis did not suffer many casualties to free agency. The Colts ended up allowing the fewest points in the league (16.4 PPG), but the omnipresent pass rush was curtailed when Dwight Freeney went down. The return to health of Freeney and others should have the Colts back on course.

With Peyton Manning, the “other Manning” these days, he’s been freed to work on improving himself and showing the patience he occasionally lacked last season. This situation took a bit of a U-turn when Manning had to have what essentially was emergency surgery on his knee, due to infection, which had suddenly caused him pain in early July. While playing in one of the Colts' final two preseason games remains a possibility, Manning's primary goal is to be fully prepared for the Sept. 7 season and home opener against the Chicago Bears.

Marvin Harrison has looked good thus far in camp, with no noticeable limp and the more familiar explosiveness Colts fans are used to. Manning learned to play without Harrison the second half of the season and no longer needs him as security blanket. Peyton still led an offense that was third in points scored (28.1), fifth in total offense (358.7 YPG) and number one in third down conversion at 49.3 percent. It’s hard to find much fault, as long as Bill Polian and Tony Dungy are in charge.

There is a very good reason why Indianapolis has been as good as they have without a decline. GM Bill Polian and head coach Tony Dungy live in the present, always thinking about the future. The Colts lost G Jake Scott and back-up TE Ben Utecht, yet was able to keep every other player they needed. The offense line, though still strong, was given full attention, with three picks used. Arizona State’s Mike Pollack was chosen first and Remington runner-up, C Steve Justice was chosen in sixth round. Pollack is already showing promise, sharing playing time early in camp with vet Charlie Johnson at right guard for the departed Scott. The Colts M.O. has been to choose versatile linemen who can play more than one position and ultimately excel at one, once they find their niche. Tough Mike Hart of Michigan will compete for carries behind Joe Addai and bring winning attitude to the club. Adding outside linebackers Marcus Howard and Philip Wheeler means more speed from players that look like a good fit for Dungy’s defensive system. The beat goes on in Indy.

2008 Outlook- The expression, “luck is a residue of design” embarks what Indianapolis Colts are all about. GM Polian has carefully crafted a roster in harmony to his and coach Dungy’s preferences. Though the Colts are heavily wagered upon, they have still managed to be 15-10-1 ATS on the road the last three years. Indianapolis has the NFL’s second toughest schedule, yet nothing to fret; they just keep putting up “W’s” and head off all challengers. The Colts at 4-1, is quality wager to win the AFC. Even with the teams in the division improving and rugged slate of games, you either bet Indianapolis to go Over 11 wins at wagering outlets or pass.

Free Baseball Winners at 3Daily Winners

A 2-1Tuesday, with System and Trend plays coming up Winners. Today’s Top System goes right back to Texas, with 79.1 winning percentage. With Atlanta crying “uncle”, the Top Trend assesses their chances against the Redbirds. The Free Play in a consensus selection from the Left Coast Connection. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON home favorites with a money line of -150 or more like Texas, a good offensive team scoring 5.2 or more runs a game on the season (AL), after a combined score of 15 runs or more. This system is sultry 57-15, 79.1 percent since 2006 and average winning margin is 2.5 runs per game.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Atlanta is 4-16 with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 15 games over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Six members of the Left Coast Connection have Arizona as Best Bet, with nobody backing San Diego.

Free Baseball Selections from 3Daily Winners

Our Top Trend was yet again a winner for a 1-1 day at 3DW. A new member of the LCC has started well in hitting 75 percent of his plays and he’s focused on Tampa Bay and Toronto matchup as his top selection. The Top Trend is back, with another 100 percent perfect angle, which has won nine of last 10. Today’s Top System is in the American League and is 85.7 Winner the last three seasons. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON home favorites, like Texas with money line of -110 or higher, with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season, against opponent with a starting pitcher like Carlos Silva (4-12, 5.62 ERA), whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season (AL). Since 2006, this has been killer system at 18-3, 85.7 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Milwaukee is 9-0 OVER when the total is 7.5 or less.

Free Baseball Selection -3) A newer member of the Left Coast Connection has gotten off to a good start with 6-2 record and he has Toronto as his best play tonight. (All Free Plays are 80-37, since this blog started.)

Free Baseball Plays at 3Daily Winners

The L.A. Angels prevented another perfect day, instead settled for just 3-1. (We know that’s good) In the National League, one dominant pitcher tries to extend streak in our Top Trend, while the Free Play in taking place in the Bronx. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) No truly valuable systems going today. Since we started this blog, System plays are 40-23.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Houston’s Roy Oswalt is 19-1 against Cincinnati lifetime.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Slick Rick is back from the Left Coast Connection and is on the New York Yankees to extend home winning streak to 11 games.

Random Thoughts for a Sunday

Been another hectic week, trying to get everything in place with upcoming football season. Went to Cubs and Arizona game, this past Wednesday, in which Chicago won 10-6. The funniest aspect of the night was when Reed Johnson hit grand slam home run to put the Cubs up 10-3, you would have sworn every D-Backs fan in attendance just was text-messaged their car was on fire in the parking lot. I've never seen so many people leave a sporting event at one time before the game was over. Hilarious.

Yesterday our Top System play had Philadelphia and it is now 30-1. Truth is, it was a function of luck and skill. Cole Hamels and other Phillies pitchers were lit for nine runs in the four inning and Atlanta led 9-3. In the bottom of the fifth, Philly scored seven runs to take a 10-9 lead and hung on to win by that exact score. What's interesting about the final score, is this was the 14th one run road loss (0-14 this season) for the Bravos and they lost 20 in a row dating back to August 10, 2007. That reminds of Seattle Mariners some years ago, who went seven games without back-to-back hits.

This whole Brett Favre thing has become about as interesting at a Britney Spears story. Like I said and I heard Mel Kiper Jr. even say (for what that's worth), Favre reports to camp, declares he wants to compete for job and if he beats out Rodgers fair and square, no beefs and if other teams have injuries to starting QB's in preseason, Green Bay has leverage to make trade. Packers asking (wanting?) for 1st round pick is stupid, no team other than Oakland would be dumb.

Does anyone know what's going on with the Cleveland Indians? One game away from the World Series last October and now are willing to deal almost any player for remastered CD's of Emerson, Lake and Palmer (for those that don't get this, think of commercial that have song "Welcome back my friends to the show that never ends") or Blackfoot!

With the new term- Bucket List- working on one of mine this week, after all these years, going to CrueFest to see Motley Crue. Can't wait.

Free Baseball Plays and more at 3Daily Winners

Those 3-0 days are always a welcome sight at 3Daily Winners, let’s go get some more. Top System takes us over to Oakland and has been right on the money with 79.9 percent Winners. Review today’s top Trend to see if Colorado should sweep Cincy. Kendall goes for three Free Winners in a row, will he do it? Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Texas with a money line of +100 or higher, starting a pitcher like Eric Hurley who gave up one or less earned runs last outing (one run, 5 2/3 innings) against opponent with a cold starting pitcher like Dana Eveland, who has WHIP 2.000 or higher over his last three starts. One again this follows baseball betting logic, If Hurley and the hot-hitting Rangers were really believable, oddsmakers would make them a favorite in this spot. This system is 49-13, 79.9 percent the last five years and Texas is 13-23 against lefties.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Colorado is 16-2 after allowing two runs or less in BB games.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Kendall of the Left Coast Connection is in 11-4 run +8.95 units in baseball and is going right back to backing the Los Angeles Angels for a third straight time, expecting the sweep. I’d like to add, I’m playing San Jose +4 in ArenaBowl title game today. The LCC is 9-8 Philadelphia on this game for those interested. Nobody has this as big play.

Free Baseball Plays at 3Daily Winners

A steady as it goes 2-1 Friday. Today we have what might be the best System play we have found all year, at least record wise, amazing. Kendall of the LCC was on the money with the Angels last night, what is his Top Play tonight? Our Top Trend focuses on Minnesota, in a very interesting situation. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like Atlanta with a money line of +175 to +250, batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a hot starting pitcher like Cole Hamels of the Phillies with a WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. This truly astonishing system is 29-1, that’s correct, 29-1 the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Minnesota is 12-1 after scoring four runs or less five straight games.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Kendall of the Left Coast Connection is in 8-3 run +5.95 units in baseball and is going right back to backing the Los Angeles Angels again tonight.

2008 Washington Redskins Preview

With the first exhibition game just over a week away, NFL talk is coming fast and furious. Washington and Indianapolis will play in the Hall-of-Fame game on Sunday, August 3. This week we’ll take a look at the Redskins chances for the upcoming season and see what the best bet for season total wins is.

Joe Gibbs was never able to re-create his success in return visit to Washington, other than a couple of playoff appearances. Gibbs had given it his all, but the demands were more than he wanted to continue to deal with and new head coach Jim Zorn was hired to build on last year’s 9-7 campaign. Gibbs never quite found the magic, having hired assistant coaches that he was more comfortable with (his age) who never really effectively attacked opponent’s weakness. Gibbs spiritualism did help guide the team thru last year’s senseless death of Sean Taylor and as a human being, Gibbs should be commended for that alone.

One of the first orders of business is to restructure the offense. Quarterback Jason Campbell is still a work in progress and Zorn believes he can teach him to be more effective. The offense only ranked 20th in points scored (20.9) and 20th in total offense at 333.3 yards per game. Adding weapons thru the draft should make the offense more productive, especially in the second half of the season when a higher degree of comfort is met. Campbell will have the chance to be more effective in traditional West Coast offense, featuring slants and passes into the flat.

What could be more challenging for the new coach is maintain excellence on the defense. In 2007, the Redskins were 8th in total defense and 11th in points allowed. That was on the heels of being 30th in yards allowed in 2006, after being 8th in same category in 2005. DC Gregg Williams super aggressive schemes have been replaced by new DC Greg Blache, who was not deemed good enough to hold the job after 2004 season and had been managing the defense line in our nation’s capital since. Washington has age on the left side of defense, which could hold them back from moving forward in Zorn’s maiden adventure as the skipper.

It was nearly impossible to comprehend, but owner Dan Snyder’s wallet actually had dust coming out of this off-season. For the first time since buying the Redskins, Danny Boy made no splashy signings (unless you’re related to former Texans WR Jerome Mathis). In spite of only three playoff appearances since taking ownership, Snyder trusted his staff and new coach Jim Zorn. Under Joe Gibbs second tour of duty in Washington, he made a point to have munchkin receivers. This placed added pressure on QB Jason Campbell to make the perfect throws down the field. This time, the Skins chose the right path and landed 6’2 Devin Thomas and 6’4 Malcolm Thomas. In a weak group of wide receivers, this tandem were rated two of the best three. Trojans TE Fred Davis has good skills and could free up Chris Cooley in down the field routes. Executive vice president Vinny Cerrato was not afraid to play to Zorn’s strengths on the offensive side, nonetheless, has harbored criticism for not better addressing age in the defensive line and strong side LB spots. After losing DE Philip Daniels with tear to left knee ligament the first day of training camp, Cerrato picked up the phone and made trade for Jason Taylor to shore up weak area.

2008 Outlook – It’s the dawning of a new era in Washington, with Jim Zorn taking the reins. While improvement seems to be the theme for the Redskins, they received no help from NFL schedule maker. They are the sacrificial lamb in season opener at the Meadowlands for the Super Bowl champs. Also, back-to-back road division games pop-up in Weeks 4 and 5 against Dallas and Philadelphia respectively. From that point Washington needs to play well, since the season concludes with four of last six away from FedEx Field.

The Redskins are presumed to be better in certain areas, nonetheless, putting in new offensive and defensive schemes takes time for adjustment, for the players and coaches. Unless Zorn is the second coming of Bill Walsh, it will take Redskins players time to figure where they need to be on both sides of the ball. In the first part of the year, this means more thinking than reacting, which in this league is the difference between a first down or a tackle for loss. Zorn also will make first year coaching mistakes, further complicating more positive results. Possible tough sledding in Zorn’s first year and we’ll support the Under 7.5 total.

Free Baseball Plays at 3Daily Winners

Top Trend was easy winner backing Roy Halladay and moves on to the big Yankees/Red Sox rivalry, starting this evening. Kendall’s back from the Left Coast Connection and is backing one of the Los Angeles teams as his Top Play and has opinion on CFL selection. Our System play is in the American League and is 80.5 percent the last five seasons. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON home favorites with money line of -110 or higher like Cleveland, with a mediocre bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 like Livan Hernandez on the season (AL). This system has racked up the winners with 41-10 mark the last five years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Boston Red Sox are 20-3 playing into double revenge.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Kendall’s heating up again in baseball and is using the L.A. Angels as his best bet today. He also mentioned to take a strong look at Hamilton with the points in the CFL.

Free Baseball Selections for July 24

Nice rebound yesterday with 3-1 record. Very seldom do you ever see two poor days in a row at 3Daily Winners, since we seek quality information on these Free plays just like the articles that are written. Top notch System play going, which is hitting over 80 percent since 2004. Today’s Top Trend has a pitcher dominating an opponent. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against all underdogs like Kansas City, with a money line of +100 or higher, after five straight games where they stranded seven or less runners on base, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 8.00 the last five games. Why this system works is teams like the Royals are not hitting and their pitching is getting battered. This system is 62-15, 80.5 percent, including perfect 2-0 this year.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Toronto with Ray Halladay starting is 17-3 against Baltimore since 2001.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Most members of the Left Coast Connection including myself are passing today.

Free Baseball Plays from 3Daily Winners

Bad day all the way around yesterday, as everything took a beating. Started today right with System Play a winner and Yankees play was accurate. I'll add one more play for tonight, you can read below. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON all favorites with a money line of -150 or more like Tampa Bay, who are below average hitting team (BA .265 or less), against a good starting pitcher like the A’s Greg Smith (5-8, 3.79), who has an ERA of 4.20 or less in the AL, in the second half of the season. This system is 68-16, 81 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Colorado is 13-0 Over after scoring 9 or more runs in back to back games.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Haven’t received all information yet, thus will give out play I like thus far on the Yankees. UPDATE- Seeing I hit the Yankees, I'll go with other New York team tonight.

Free Baseball Picks at 3Daily Winners

Another 2-1 winning day at 3DW, and our friends at StatFox sent over a top notch System play that has two teams in the mix. The Top Trend of the day seeks two in a row, looking in on Tampa Bay. Our pal Sal from the LCC, has put together great runs here with his Free Plays and has one going today. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs against a +1.5 run line, (Money Line in -190 to +165 range) with a team on-base percentage .320 or worse on the season (AL), in the second half of the season. This run line system is 21-5, 80.7 percent this season and shows Cleveland and Oakland as play against teams.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Tampa Bay is 17-1 as -150 to -200 home favorite this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal from the Left Coast Connection is heating up again, pounding out 8-2 record the last three days and is backing Jake Peavy and San Diego.

Understanding Baseball’s Magic Number 4

The major league baseball All-Star break was a welcome relief for many, a time to take a few days off to stretch the mind, offer a few more simple pleasures and generally take it easy. For others, the void is an unwelcome interruption from the daily grind of churning out numbers. Having studying numbers with regularity at least since April, if not dating back to November when the NBA season started, this chasm is a break that throws off the kismet of where a sports bettor expects to end up.

For those of us that fit the latter group, a healthy exercise is to reflect where we have been and where we are going. This season to date in major league baseball, 4.5 has been the number, this is what all teams have averaged either scoring or allowing in 2008. Since half-numbers of course are impossible to determine outcomes, decided to choose what is the most talked about number in the media these days –four- like the one Brett Favre has worn.

For starters, let’s review the division leaders or those who are very close. The Los Angeles Angels have held opponents 65 times to four runs or less among its 98 games (66.3 percent) and not surprisingly are tied for the best record in baseball. Boston and Tampa Bay are in a dogfight in the AL East and the Red Sox have held opponent to four or fewer runs 57 times and the first place Rays on 58 different occasions. Division leaders out of Chicago, the White Sox and the Cubs, have held opponents to four runs or less 55 and 57 times respectively.

The importance of this figure is shown by the results of another division leader, Arizona. When the D-Backs started 20-8, 19 times (67.8 percent) they held the opposing team to four or fewer runs. Since then, that percent has fallen to 47.1, as only 33 times in the next 70 contests have the Snakes held opponents below this number, in part, accounting for 28-42. With Arizona’s lack of hitting receiving so much attention in slide, aside from All-Stars Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, the rest of the pitching staff has been mediocre at best.

How important is this stat as it relates to teams having winning streaks? Consider the New York Mets as the most recent example. The Mets had won 10 in a row, to catapult back into the NL East race. During that hot streak they were12-2 in those 14encounters, surrendering more than four runs just three times. Compare this success with what it’s taken in blocks of games in which they held opponents to this few of runs. Prior to this successful point in time, it took 24 games to hold foes 12 times below five runs (10-14 record). Before then, 22 games (11-11) and starting April 19, it took 24 trips to the ballpark (11-13) to reach the figure of 12 again, proving how important good pitching is.

The St. Louis Cardinals are a surprise team, hanging around the lead in the NL Central, despite incredible injuries to many pitchers. Manager Tony LaRussa and pitching coach Dave Duncan have pieced together pitching staff, and when the Cards to teams to 0-to-4 runs, they are 47-17 in 2008.

Minnesota’s 24-9 run to creep ever closer to Chicago, has been fueled by great pitching, as clubs in other uniforms have scored four or less runs 23 times.

Because of the differences of ballparks, teams style of play, this is theory is not absolute and has a flip side relating to scoring runs. The San Diego Padres play in the most extreme pitcher’s park in baseball and have matched the Chicago White Sox for allowing opponents to score four or less runs 55 times. The Padres problems revolve around offense, since an enormous 67 times (67.6 percent for those keeping track at home), they have failed to score five or more runs in a game.

Weak hitting teams like Washington and Seattle do not score enough runs with or without decent pitching. The Nationals have failed to break the barrier beyond four runs 61 times and the Mariners an even worse 66 times.

Detroit’s pitching has been suspect all season, thus they are more dependent on scoring runs. In the Tigers first 60 games, they failed to touch home plate five times 27 different ways, this led to 24-36 record. In last 38 contests, they have scored a minimum of five runs 24 times and are 25-13 to square up record at .500.

Do you think Florida counts on hitting? The Marlins are 52-46 and have been outscored by 25 runs in 2008, thanks to allowing the third most runs in the National League. When Florida scores five runs or more, they are 48-14. When the Fish swim into four or fewer runs, they are miserable 14-32.

For those handicapping these figures, you have to understand what you are working with. It a team doesn’t score runs, and is facing starting pitcher with quality earned run average and is backed up with good bullpen, they are not going to have much success. In this situation, to seek value, you would need this team probably to be at home, scoring runs at above average rate of five or more contests and having their number one or two starter throwing. If these elements come together, a solid play on home underdog is worth contemplating.

The other aspect is to match the team’s recent play with how they are scoring and allowing runs compared to the oddsmakers total. If two clubs have been scoring five or more runs, for six or more games on average and the total is 8.5 for example, the oddsmaker is telling us two good starting hurlers are facing one another. In this case, it is a matter of understanding bullpens and which team is better equipped to play lower scoring game, knowing this should lead you down the path of profitability in the second half of the season.

Free Baseball Picks at 3Daily Winners

The White Sox bullpen caused 3Daily Winners to “settle” for 3-1 day on Sunday. The System play today is remarkable; having won 38 of 41 times it has come up. Today’s Top Trend takes us right back to Coffee Town, where Starbucks $8 coffees are no longer the rage on a budget. Since we started giving out Free Plays on this blog, our record is 78-32, 70.9 percent. Paul Buck was correct on both plays on Sunday and has the Winner on NL East showdown. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON all favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 like Tampa Bay, who are below average hitting team ( BA .265 or less), against a good starting pitcher like Dana Eveland (7-6, 3.49 ERA) who has an ERA of 4.20 or less in the AL, in the second half of the season. Logic dictates there is a reason why the Rays should be such a large favorite, despite shortcomings in two mentioned situations. This system is incredible at 38-3, 92.7 percent the last 11 seasons.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Seattle is 3-16 after playing consecutive games Over.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck has been making serious cash, hitting 15 of last 21 wagers, including both Winners here yesterday. He’s on Florida today to keep streak going.

Free Baseball Picks at 3Daily Winners

Rare 1-2 day at 3Daily Winners and we’ll look to climb right back in the saddle today. Yesterday’s winner was a System selection and we have another stupendous one is available hitting 86.2 percent. We uncovered a 100 percent Top Trend and these have near perfect all baseball season. Paul Buck is bucking the system and has 2 outstanding Free Plays. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more like Kansas City, who are poor power team averaging less than a home run per game, against a starting pitcher like John Danks who gives up 0.5 or less long balls a start, after five straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base. This awesome system is 50-8, 86.2 percent the last 11 years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Seattle has yet to win in nine tries after allowing more than 9 runs in last contest in 2008.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck has been on a nice ride, hitting 12 of last 16 wagers and is on Detroit in MLB and gives out Toronto minus the points in Canadien football as his best play in that sport thus far this season.