SEC versus Big 12 – Who’s the Best?

The SEC is the acknowledged best conference in college football this decade. In fact the discussion has changed from the first part of the millennium from what is the best league, to who is second behind the Southeastern Conference? The Big Ten resembles some of its states, Ohio and Michigan are losing population base, and college players are not as interested in attending most of these schools as in decades ago. The Big East will rise up now and again, but never be a year after year power. The ACC is a basketball conference, adding Boston College and Miami-Fl. has brought zilch to the league’s prestige or the overall results, though Virginia Tech is a big plus, but only as long as Frank Beamer is there is my guess. Pac-10 is down this year, but they’ll be back as soon as they restock the quarterback positions.

That leaves the Big 12 as the only true contender. Though the final results won’t be in until after the bowl games, these conferences are not as far apart as one might think.

Since 2000, Florida and LSU have combined to be the kings of college football three times. The Big 12 has had its stalwarts in Oklahoma and Texas, winning the BCS trophy twice and the Sooners played in the title game two other times, losing both.

I went back and looked at each teams and league’s non-conference record since 2003 and the results were mildly surprising. (Bowl games excluded)

SEC 191-59 76.4 percent
Big 12 197-67 74.3 percent

The SEC will have a chance to widen this margin since they schedule so many non-league games late in the season or have regional rivalries (Florida- Florida State, Georgia –Georgia Tech), still leaving 15 non-conference games to be played, while the Big 12 has the more traditional approach and has completed their schedule.

For the most part, both leagues schedule beatable teams out of conference and generally are medium to extra-large favorites in most instances. The SEC is well-known for digging up what is now referred to today as FCS schools, to beat the daylights out of, but the Big 12 has actually played more of these guaranteed winners, (49-43) over the last six seasons. Against the spread in non-conference action the two leagues are extremely close.

Big 12 118-106 52.5 percent
SEC 107-101 51.4 percent

One of the beauties of college football is the contrast of how conferences play the same game. The Big 10 has been known for big strong players who are not particularly fast across the board. The Pac-10 has been noted for quarterbacks and skill position players.

The Big 12 has only been around since 1996, with its roots in the Southwest Conference, which was a known as running league. The fundamentals have been altered in recent years to be more offensive-minded. How this occurred was at the lower levels of the conference, schools like Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech were likely to never get the quality of athlete a Texas or Oklahoma would year in, year out. Thus the coaches that have been hired were all offensive by trade, taking the approach of competing by scoring, as compared to defending. This method has seen the Big 12 attract far better talent at quarterback and skill positions then in the past, in terms of league depth.

The SEC is like a video game on fast forward. The amount of speed is astonishing on both sides of the line of scrimmage. In this conference, with so much speed on offense, coaches have to have defensive players that can be disrupters and halt the speed they are facing. This has changed the Southeastern Conference into more of a defensive-first league. To illustrate this point, review the year to year figures of the Top 20 teams in total offense and total defense from these leagues.

2004-Top 20 Offenses
Big 12 (4) Texas Tech- Texas- Oklahoma-Texas A&M
SEC – none

2004 Top 20 Defenses
Big 12 (2) Oklahoma – Missouri
SEC (5) Alabama –LSU- Auburn-Georgia- So. Carolina

2005-Top 20 Offenses
Big 12 (2) Texas-Texas Tech
SEC – none

2005 Top 20 Defenses
Big 12 (3) Kansas- Texas- Oklahoma-
SEC (5) Alabama – LSU- Tennessee- Florida- Georgia

2006-Top 20 Offenses
Big 12 (5) Texas Tech- Missouri- Nebraska- Okla. State- Texas A&M
SEC (2) LSU- Florida

2006 Top 20 Defenses
Big 12 (1) Oklahoma
SEC (4) LSU- Florida- Georgia- Auburn

2007-Top 20 Offenses
Big 12 (7) Texas Tech- Missouri- Okla. State- Kansas- Nebraska-Texas-Oklahoma
SEC (2) Florida- Arkansas

2007 Top 20 Defenses
Big 12 (1) Kansas
SEC (4) LSU- Auburn- Georgia-Vanderbilt

2008-Top 20 Offenses (year-to-date)
Big 12 (7) Texas Tech- Missouri-Oklahoma- Okla. State-Texas- Kansas- Nebraska
SEC -none

2008 Top 20 Defenses (year-to-date)
Big 12 -none
SEC (7) South Carolina- Alabama-Auburn-Georgia-Florida-Kentucky-Tennessee

It’s abundantly clear the difference in the two leagues this season, the quarterback position. In 2008, the Big 12 returned 11 of 12 starting quarterbacks from a season ago, setting the table of success in this conference. Names like Sam Bradford, Chase Daniel, Colt McCoy, Todd Reesing and Graham Harrell and others all returned, it stood to reason this would be a more offensive league, especially when it came to throwing the ball. A check of the top 50 quarterbacks in passing yards shows the Big 12 having seven in the top 20 and nine overall. The first visible signal caller throwing the ball from the SEC is Mathew Stafford of Georgia at #25, with a total of three overall. (Heisman winner Tim Tebow is 69th)

Anytime you have a good quarterback in the college game you have a chance to win. Much like the professional football, the quarterback position is taking on greater importance. He’s has to read multiple defenses, run the option well enough to be a threat and throw with accuracy. A top notch thrower on a team with any sort of defense can be a threat to cover the spread. He can lead his team to victory as an upset winner, or provide that backdoor cover late in the game. This is why I believe this year the Big 12 is on par with the SEC.

In the last five years, the Big 12 has held their own against the SEC in regular season matchups. Overall they are 6-4 straight up and 6-3-1 ATS, including 4-2-1 against the spread on the road.

Bowl games have been a different story and this year more than ever might be most telling. In the last five seasons, the SEC has a decided edge at 7-3 SU and ATS record in the post-season.

Don’t assume the SEC is the best just because of history, since if we assumed everything, the price of gas should be less than half of what it was in May, because the price of a barrel of oil is today, right?

Your thoughts welcome.

Tuesday's Top Betting Info at 3Daily Winners

Our NHL expert just missed going to 3-0, with Boston losing in a shootout last night. Our Top System looks at the money line in the NFL on a short number and is fabulous 92.8 percent. The Carolina Panthers play one way off a division victory, can you guess which way. Nobody is to enthusiastic about tonight’s action, however a few members like the Total in college football. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON Home favorites vs. the money line with an average offensive team (4.9 to 5.4 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.9 to 5.4 YPP), after allowing 250 or less total yards in two consecutive games. This money line system is sensational 26-2 over the last 25 years and points to Pittsburgh Steelers as the right side.

Free Football Trend -2) Carolina is 18-4 UNDER off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival.

Free Football Selection -3) No real strong plays in CFB or the NHL, thus we’ll offer the Under in Ohio/Temple game with 3 Left Coast Connection members favoring that side compared to 2 on the Over.

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You have to see this......

I just heard about this, tell me what you think.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=V3Z-kAmbZCc

Bragging Rights and Other Notes

If you have been following this blog for any time, you know we try and present top notch information. Along with this we try to give out as many winners as possible and always tell the truth, good or bad about our the record. Right today a number of people and our trio of plays are doing incredibly well, thus I going to brag on on us for a moment, because I'm damn proud of how we're doing and the information and people we have assembled.

Our last 11 official Systems, Trends and Free plays have won, that right 11-0. You can look it up yourself right here. Paul Buck has hit his last nine football wagers and myself, the 96-yard touchdown pass by Detroit ended a 13-game winning streak for me. Kendall gave out Baltimore winner on Sunday and had two more winners in the NFL raising his record on the season to 26-5 and another individual from the LCC was on Northern Illinois Saturday and picked up three other winners putting him on 18-2 college football roll.

When myself and few others started this blog, this is what we wanted, useful information to help you win. Eveyone associated with this venture knows all us can start losing almost immediately, which is why the information is so important, because facts don't lie. Traffic is up 43 percent from a month ago, I personally thank you.

Concerning today, Paul likes New England and so do I, yet not enough to make it an official play on his part. Kendall bought the Monday night game at Over 46, but is not making it an official play either. One Trend is in the article below about how Denver does in this totals range. Our Hockey guy is 2-0 thus far and likes Boston in their home opener being 17-6 against Pittsburgh. Good Luck.

Monday Night Betting Matchup

In terms of coaching matchups, it hardly gets any better than this in the NFL with Mike Shanahan versus Bill Belichick. The sideline chess game may be just as good as the one on the field. Both head coaches could be poster boys for “No Guts, No Glory,” especially Shanahan, who went for two points and the win against San Diego in Week 2.

Belichick’s probably the only other coach with enough confidence in his team, and desire to drop the hammer on an opponent. And you can bet he’ll be ready to go for broke given Shanahan’s current three-game winning streak in the series and Denver 4-1 and 5-0 ATS in New England.

The Pats return home after splitting a West Coast trip to San Francisco and San Diego. Despite the loss of Tom Brady, New England is 3-2 (2-3 ATS) after a 30-10 loss against the Chargers last Sunday night. New England wasn’t going to beat San Diego last week; however that game illustrated Matt Cassel’s issues.

Besides taking far too many sacks (19), Cassel’s is slow to react to what is placed in front of him on the football field. Speaking to a person who watches tape on every NFL game, Cassel’s lacks presence in the pocket and finding open receivers at this level of football. He expressed it was clear, despite physical talent, his not starting a football game since high school limits the scope of what he is capable of, thus the vertical passing game of the Patriots is strictly hit or miss. He will be helped playing at Gillette Stadium where New England is 37-21 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record.

He takes aim at a Denver defense that continues to sputter, being ranked 30th no matter where it plays. The Broncos fell for the second time in three weeks, losing at home to Jacksonville, 24-17, and the defense was gored for 416 yards, including 276 yards through the air by David Garrard.

The Pats can still score in bunches and from anywhere—just ask the 49ers, who watched Randy Moss burn the secondary for a 66-yard touchdown. What New England desperately needs to improve is a running game split amongst three players (Sammy Morris, LaMont Jordan and Laurence Maroney), none of whom have distinguished themselves. For the bruising—and often bruised—Maroney and shifty Morris at least Denver’s defense, which allows an average of 137.5 yards per game, offers an opportunity to get on the right track. They will seek to get back to normal off of loss at San Diego, which was first spread loss in October in three seasons.

Jay Cutler looked like the second coming of John Elway as the Broncos averaged 38 points in their first three games. Since then an inexplicable loss to Kansas City, a defensive squeaker against the Bucs and a dull effort against Jacksonville. The Broncos have serious problems on defense against the run and pass and scoring 17.3 points a game like they have in the last three outings won’t mask them.

Bookmaker.com has seen New England hold steady as a three-point favorite, with the total having rose to 48 points. What’s intriguing about the upward movement of the total is Denver is 4-12 ATS when both teams score 20 or more points and New England is 43-18 ATS when they score 22 to 28 points.

Denver covers if they confuse Cassel and make him uncomfortable. Stop the run on the early downs against the Patriots and force Cassel to make plays down the field. Cutler needs to be smarter with the football, as they have seven turnovers in two losses. Cutler needs to be patient, since the New England defense is beatable. If the Broncos maximize efficiency, they move to 15-4 ATS after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games

New England covers by finding Randy Moss. Last week Moss started to revert to Oakland day’s, looking disinterested, get him the ball. Belichick has to change up defense to get more pressure, as defensive backs are below average and can be beaten on middle to deep patterns when the quarterback has time to throw. The offensive line has to block well and control the game. With the total at present figure, it favors the Pats, with Denver disastrous 0-11 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last two seasons.

Our Monday night system looks to play against any away underdog that has failed to cover its last two games. This system is 19-8 ATS, 70.3 percent.

NFL Wagering Info for Week 7

What a superb day at 3Daily Winners with 4-0 record in college football and we have been lucky enough to hit seven in a row. Today you get two systems for the same game, with the latter 15-1 ATS. The Top Trend takes a look at an important divisional contest and Kendall, who is 23-5 in the NFL, serves up what we hope is another Winner. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) Tennessee and Kansas City are off a bye and when two teams meet off a bye week, if the home team is off a loss and the visitor is off a win, the visitor is 15-6 ATS. For the clincher, it is best to Play On any unbeaten favorite with an extra week's rest, since they are 15-1 ATS, 93.7 percent.

Free Football Trend -2) Carolina is 10-2 ATS after scoring 6 points or less in last game.

Free Football Selection -3) We’ll give Kendall one more tour of duty here, seeing he is 23-5 in the NFL and he is playing Baltimore as his Best Bet.

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Early Line Moves in Football

For the Early Line Moves, we seek out the earliest lines and compare them on late Tuesday nights numbers to see what the so-called Line Movers do. By and large their track record is solid and dependable. Last week in college football was not good at 2-5-1 on the sides and 3-3 in college totals. This makes season record 30-22-2, 57.6 percent on sides and 25-15, 62.5 percent on Totals in CFB. In the NFL, they were 0-3 on sides bringing the record to 9-7, 56.2 percent. On the Totals a 3-1 week makes the updated figure 9-9, 50 percent. I wouldn’t be surprised if these did well this week. Enjoy reading and closely follow these numbers for wagering portfolio.

College Sides
TCU +1.5 to -1.5 Winner
Conn. +3.5 to -1
Wake Forest Pick to -2.5
W. Mich +3.5 to -1
Nevada -18.5 to -21
Kentucky -10 to -7.5
Louis. Tech 17.5 to 20.5
Stanford +2.5 to -1
Flor. Atl +1 to -2

College Totals
BYU/TCU 47 to 44 Winner
Miami/Duke 46 to 43
Pur/Northw 42 to 45.5
Oreg.St./Wash 62.5 to 59.5
Ark.St/ULL 68.5 to 62

NFL Sides
Buffalo +2 to Pick
N.Y. Giants -13 to -11

NFL Totals
SD/Buff 46.5 to 44.5
Sea/TB 41.5 to 39
Den/NE 46 to 48

College Football Select Game Writeups

The Missouri and Texas matchup was close to being 1 vs 2, unfortunately the Tigers did not hold up their end of the deal. Vanderbilt and Oklahoma both suffered first loss of the season, each as favorites and will look to rebound in very different roles this Saturday. Michigan State and Arizona are both home underdogs this week and can make national noise with upset victories of which they are both capable. Defensive dogs like the Wildcats holding teams to under 275 yards of offense are dangerous. All the lines shown are from Bookmaker.com. To read the Game write-up click here.

Off the Red River Rivalry battle, Oklahoma looks to rebound with a tricky foe. The Sooners (5-1, 4-1 ATS) flunked their first true challenge against Texas. What has been seen is the purpose of which the Oklahoma offense has played with this season, borrowing from 70’s rock group Bachman-Turner Overdrive and later Office Depot; the Sooners have been taking care of business. Sam Bradford continues his amazing season, with more poise in 2008 and trio of running backs, led by DeMarco Murray run behind a nasty offensive line, averaging over a 157 yards per game.

College Football Betting for Saturday

Officially 3Daily Winners ended up 2-0 for Thursday, nonetheless it was good to have all readers hopefully take advantage of all four winning plays. Our top NHL guy was right on Buffalo Friday night. One small thought, what would be the outcry if Tom Brady had the same knee problem Peyton Manning has had and it had been kept equally as quiet as the Colts have done it.

Saturday’s Best System has two plays with a 90 percent spread record. The Top Trend ventures into the ACC to take a peek at the Turtles. A piping hot sports bettor ways in again with his Best Bet on Saturday’s card. Good Luck.

A thought to ponder, if the price of a barrel of oil is half of what it was in May, how come gas prices are not? Of that’s right, the oil companies are reinvesting in alternative fuels, forgot about that.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON road favorites after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game, with five or more offensive starters back. How this works is enough offensive talent is available for this team to put up a better performance than what they had in last game. Seeing the oddsmakers still have enough faith in them to make road chalk, they should be good. This succulent system is 27-3 ATS, 90 percent. The teams to consider are the U at Miami and Georgia Tech.

Free Football Trend -2) Maryland is 10-1 ATS at home after a loss of 28 or more points.

Free Football Selection -3) Last Saturday we gave you a member of the Left Coast Connection’s best bet on South Carolina, which was part of his picks that went 3-0 to raise his college football record to 14-2 the last month. This week his Top Play is Northern Illinois.

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Free College Football Plays at 3Daily Winners

We’ll go a little more football intensive today, with all three plays covering various aspects. The system play is “a don’t make sense” one, but who cares if it goes to 31-8 record. We are giving out two trends today, with both being more obscure, yet potentially quite useful. The Left Coast Connection members chime in on the big BYU-TCU contest. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with a good rushing defense allowing 125 or less rushing yards a game, after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game. Not really sure why this system works, since the two aspects seem to have nothing in common, but who are we to argue with 30-8 ATS record. Florida State is the play against team.

Free Football Trends -2) Thou neither will be counted officially, here are two trends to consider tonight. TCU is 5-0 ATS the last decade when Top 25 teams visit Fort Worth and Florida State is 0-6 ATS after scoring 40 or more points.

Free Football Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection has 10 betting on TCU and two favoring BYU tonight.

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Betting on tonight's ACC Game

While this Atlantic Coast Conference contest is not even the most important game on Thursday night, there is more than enough intrigue for those surfing channels and college football bettors alike. Let’s start with the TMZ-like stuff first. Long time Florida State assistant coach Chuck Amato left Tallahassee to coach is alma mater N.C. State in 2000 and his teams were known for undisciplined play, winning when they shouldn’t and losing when they should. His most notable accomplishment (besides the weird sunglasses) was beating the Seminoles three times, twice in North Florida. After being fired in 2006 for a 3-9 season in Raleigh, Bobby Bowden brought him back as linebacker coach and the Chuckster returns to the Carter-Finley Stadium for the first time since.

The first really big question is how does the Wolfpack extend spread cover record to 7-1 against Florida State? For practical purposes let’s assume it won’t be from running the ball, with N.C. State 117th in the country toting the pigskin and the Seminoles fifth stopping opposing ball carriers. Maybe the Wolfpack players will all excited to play on Thursday night before the home crowd and unknowingly raise their record to 8-0 ATS after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in two straight games. Yea, that’s gonna happen, let’s get out the lipstick for the pig.

Passing the ball is not a great option, as Wolfpack quarterbacks complete less than 50 percent of their attempts. No wonder Bookmaker.com has N.C. State as a 10.5-point home underdog, their offense is downright offensive.

Moving on, can the Wolfpack defense help pull the upset? Looking at the numbers at face value, the answer would be unequivocal, NO. They give up 430 yards a game compared to the teams they’ve played that have averaged 359 yards a game. That’s a difference of 71 yards (those high school math classes paying off again) which makes this as likely to happen as Linda and Hulk Hogan getting back together.

Does this mean N.C. State has no shot? No, no, no, of course not. Were talking a hulking young men interested in women, video games, UFC and women (not necessarily in that order). The Florida State offensive line is WAY better than what they have had in the last five years, yet is won’t be mentioned among the best 20 in the country. Stoic coach Tom O’Brien defense has to jam up the middle and take away Florida State run game. The idea is to force frosh QB Christian Ponder to be a playmaker as passer. Ponder is completing 40 percent of his passes for 165 yards a game in last three outings. Bobby Bowden’s team is starting to look more like the Navy offense than the Noles. Make Ponder ponder about passing and maybe N.C. State can improve to 7-2 in ACC games.

Let’s not forget, Florida State has beaten two FCS teams, Colorado and the U (Miami), with the latter two both .500. Offensive prosperity has not officially returned just yet with head-coach-in-waiting Jimbo Fisher running the offense. The Seminoles are 0-6 ATS in next game if oddsmakers have a line on it after cracking the 40 point barrier. Bowden’s bunch is 4-10 against the spread after holding a team to under the century mark rushing the ball.

I’ll give very shaky support to the cranked up home team to cover. What I really prefer is the total which is at 47.5. Turnovers could turn this into a loser for this guest writer, but what the heck, I found out Florida State is 12-3 Under as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points, with average score coming in at just a hair over 42 points. N.C. State is 12-3 Under playing on Thursday’s with average score a trifle beyond 44 total points.

In conclusion, I’m betting the Under and still thinking about a parlay with the total and Wolfpack and you can do whatever you like. Thanks for reading.

Red Wydley

Looking in the Rearview Mirror in Betting Football

Week 6 of the NFL saw a return of low scoring football, with 10 of the 14 games played going Under the number. That was the first time since week 1 the majority of games had followed that path. For the season, the record stands at 47-40-1 Over. On the topic of totals, one aspect bookmakers are getting crushed in is the Monday night total. After the Giants and Browns affair, the number is 7-0 Over to start a new work week.

Over the last four years betting against the bottom five teams in the Yards Per Point category has netted a winning percentage of 55 to 62 percent after week 3 of the season. In 2008, it has been completely the opposite, with these bottom feeders astonishing 9-1 ATS, the first three weeks. Based on the past, can’t say this trend will continue, however if Kansas City, St. Louis, Baltimore, Oakland or Minnesota make sense as potential plays this week, this might be one more reason to back them. Coincidently, all five are underdogs.

One of the most overlooked aspects of wagering on football is coaching. It’s not technical handicapping and not exactly like situational handicapping per se, since you can’t be sure when the light goes on for a coach and his staff. Two great examples were on prime time this past week. San Diego got off to another tough 0-2 start this season. No doubt injuries played a part. The Chargers flew by the Jets on a Monday night and beat Oakland with a sharp second half 28-18 to square record at 2-2.

San Diego traveled to Miami and Norv Turner and his offensive staff prepared a game plan of trying to run the ball down the throats of Miami, having determined they had a physical advantage to do so. On defense, the loss of Shawne Merriman had seen the Chargers return to a softer bend-but-don’t break approach. The Dolphins came into the game feeling spry after whipping New England and off a bye. Miami was the aggressor from the start and carried the game to San Diego, who quickly found out they were not going to have success running the ball and coach Turner was slow to react. The Chargers ended up losing 17-10 and were undermined by a poorly conceived game plan on both sides of the ball.

This past Sunday, Turner and his staff finally assembled a game plan that matched the situation, and better utilized the talents of the players on the team. New England might not have Tom Brady; however I don’t recall him taking a snap playing in the secondary. CB Delta O’Neal has played for a number of NFL teams for a reason, he’s adequate at best. The Chargers have big athletic receivers who can go get the ball. They attacked the Patriots from the opening play with the long pass and never relented. As John Madden pointed out, L.T. is not 100 percent and thus passing first, forced New England to not commit as many players to hang around the line of scrimmage, which gave the Bolts a better opportunity to run the ball.

Defensively, DC Ted Cottrell is known for playing tendencies of opponents, rather than attacking. In this game he understood the limitations of the Matt Cassel and attacked him. While Cottrell is obviously a smart man to stay employed in the NFL, he doesn’t always play to the players he has on hand. With or without Merriman, the Chargers players are more emotional lot and play their best when on the attack. He set up such a plan last week; watch to see if he does so in the coming weeks.

The Cleveland Browns were in the words of Tony Kornheiser, “A sexy pick to win the AFC North” and instead started 0-3. They limped past a skuzzy Cincinnati squad 20-12 and nearly benched quarterback Derek Anderson for being terrible. With two weeks to prepare for the Giants, Romeo Crennel and has coaching staff must have had an epiphany. The strength of the team is the offensive line and its receivers. Braylon Edwards had played dreadful, which undermined success, but like most prima-donna receivers in the NFL, he needs to be a focal point and has to have that confidence early in the game. Cleveland got the ball in his hands quickly and the offensive line took the challenge of going up against one of the best defensive fronts in football and ran for 144 yards along with providing superior pass blocking in what turned into a 35-14 rout.

The point is intelligent NFL coaches will devise aggressive game plans that utilize the strengths of their teams and attack the weaknesses of their opponents. It sounds like this is something they should do every week, yet as any football bettor or interested fan knows this is not the case. The players still have to play; nonetheless coaches have to place players in the best position for success.

Some might wonder about the other team making adjustments based on what they see on tape to counteract what an opponent had success at. That is a logical conclusion, which is exactly why the elite coaches come up with the right answers most of the time in a 16-game season and are paid handsomely to do so.

College Football Betting Thoughts

We are at the unofficial half way point of the college football season and this past week was a killer for two areas of college football teams from wagering perspective. Home teams that were favored by 10 or more points were abysmal 4-15-1 ATS, including five outright losses and Texas Tech holding on to win in overtime. On the season, home underdogs had been hovering around .500 against the spread. This past week they were sickly 6-14 ATS for a two week total of 11-25-3 against the spread. On the season home underdogs that have won outright, are 5-11 ATS in next game.

As opposed to what normally happens in the pro game, spread losses tend to snow ball in the college game. What we look for is teams off of exactly three spread losses. After another crummy 1-3-1 week, the season record on these squads in next game is 5-10-1 ATS, offering play against possibilities this week on Wisconsin, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, Washington State, Washington, Southern Miss, Mid. Tenn. State and Colorado.

Though the timing was somewhat curious, Tommy Bowden being fired at Clemson does not come as a shock. Much like the cat with nine lives, Bowden had time and time again managed to survive disappointment from the Clemson faithful, with the Tigers rallying down the stretch. This year was different, as Clemson was the clear choice to conquer a winnable ACC. Their first game against Alabama taught us two things, how good the Crimson Tide really was and this Clemson team was not ready for prime time.

For most of Bowden’s tenure at Clemson, bettors rode the wave with the Tigers, play them when they’re hot and going the other way when they are not. The last straw was the Wake Forest loss, after a disappointing defeat to Maryland. A quality football team that believes in the coach and the staff comes out focused and wins that game. Instead, these Tigers yawned, with the message very clear the team wasn’t buying what Bowden was selling.

Remember when Oklahoma won the national championship in 2000? Those early years for Bob Stoops were defensive teams that popped opponents and let them know more was coming. Watching the Sooners against Texas, it was obvious in the first half, this team didn’t have that “pop” most top teams in the country have. Oklahoma made tackles just fine, but no gusto behind them. The best way to describe it is when you watch a minor bowl game between evenly matched teams and you end up thinking, these are two competent teams, you wonder how they ended up 7-5. Then on New Year’s Day, a matchup of two BCS teams takes place and you suddenly see the real difference. With how competitive the Big 12 is going to be the rest of the way, the Sooners are still very much in the hunt; nonetheless they will need a more physical presence to give themselves a chance.

On the topic of the Big 12, all those SEC snobs can stick your nose up to the rest of college football about your superiority, but I’m not backing you up this time. The Big 12 has better quarterbacks, enough speed and can play the power game. A few SEC know-it-alls who arrive at games to start tailgating on Thursday (actually I’m a little jealous about that idea) will point to the Texas and Oklahoma game as no defense being played, like they do in the South. Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t Florida hang on 51 on LSU? The overall quarterback play of the Big 12 is just better this season and I’ll rate the leagues as even.

Depending on when a bettor purchased Georgia against Tennessee, all three outcomes were possible. (Win, lose or push) If you are a Bulldogs fan or betting Georgia games with regularity, isn’t it shocking the number of bad (dumb) plays Mathew Stafford continues to make? Stafford had career day throwing for 310 yards against Tennessee, however made what looked liked two bad passes in the red zone costing the ‘Dogs a chance to bury Tennessee by 21 or more points. If this was the first time it had happened all year, I might have different opinion, yet watching him, he makes a couple of these decisions a game. Backing Georgia right now as favorite has risky feel.

Take this spread and shove it! That’s what Tommy Tuberville did at Auburn, sending offensive coordinator Tony Franklin away and about 110,000 and more Michigan football fans would like to do the same to Rich Rodriquez. Auburn is a mess and the timing could hardly be any worse for Tigers fans with Alabama a rising tide. With games still at Penn State and Ohio State, plus home to improving Michigan State, Rodriquez might become more famous for being the coach that engineered the Wolverines 33-year bowl streak coming to an end. Betting against these two offensive misfits is the only way to go today.

Hump Day Action at 3Daily Winners

We received a nice Free Winner on Minnesota in the NHL last night, if our guy from the Left Coast Connection has another we’ll post it later today. Yesterday’s trend was a loser, as it looks like Tampa Bay; (think about that for a second) is one game away from going to the World Series. Fox Sports worst nightmare is about to happen if it’s the Phillies and Rays. Speaking of the City of Brotherly Love, our Top Trend involves their team tonight. The System play looks at the total of an AFC North division encounter with a 32-8 track record. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY OVER on any team where the total is 35 or less after failing to cover the spread in four or five out of their last six games. This total system is 32-8, 80 percent since 2004 and Cincinnati is the team the matches this system as they get ready to host Pittsburgh.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Philadelphia and Los Angeles have played Over 11 of 12 times at Dodger Stadium the last three years.

Free Selection -3) Pass today

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Understanding Valuable Football Betting Aspects

With most teams at the mid-point of the college football campaign, conference races are taking shape and meaningful data is being accumulated. Those wagering on college football should be gearing up for a successful second half of the season, no matter what the earlier results were.

In order to be successful you have to be extremely savvy. Too many bettors in any sport focus on too few aspects that can help them win. Some focus on statistical data, which is great way to understand how teams play. Here you can view how teams run the ball and pass the pigskin. At the same time you can see how they do defensively in the same areas. As the season continues, searching for similar opponents can be a big advantage, pitting one team against another in head to head comparison. This can show the strengths and weaknesses of teams against a given foe.

The negative to this type of comparison is placing absolute value on the predictive nature of the next game. How does a team like Michigan State that had averaged 234 yards rushing in its four previous games, run for just 91 yards at home against Iowa on Oct.4, in a game the Spartans should have lost (Iowa in the end zone –awful) and barely managed to cover at six-point favorites 16-13? This is where the sports bettor has to be armed with more then on the surface knowledge and be ready to take the next step.

Situational handicapping is needed to be blended with technical material. Michigan State was off four satisfying wins and could have covered the spread in all four games, except for inclement weather at home against Florida Atlantic. Iowa was off a pair of losses, mostly due to inferior quarterback play that prevented them from scoring more points. The Hawkeyes had the motivational edge in desire, wanting to break losing skid and Michigan State might be a little satisfied after playing quite well.

In studying statistics, Iowa had held its earlier opponents to about three yards per carry. A look at the numbers saw the Spartans had only rushed for 91 yards at California in their only loss. A quick check of the stats shows the Bears are allowing 2.5 yards per carry.

The final piece to this puzzle is the play of guarterback Brian Hoyer. The numbers suggest Hoyer is having a decent season; however Michigan State is built around the running game. Hoyer has the ability to throw the ball, but is not a great playmaker. He’s more suited to lead a team into scoring position and then the running game takes over. Despite a 4-1 record (at the time), Hoyer had three touchdown passes and three interceptions coming into first Spartans Big 10 home game.

Let’s review why Iowa was great underdog play. They needed to win after a pair of losses and Michigan State was at home hearing about how well they are playing. The Hawkeyes run defense is quite good and the Spartans had shown they could be stopped rushing the ball. In spite of a quarterback edge for Michigan State, their signal caller had not made “difference” plays most of the season.

This type of analysis might seem overwhelming or very time consuming. The fact is once the proper routine is setup, a schedule of 40-50 games can be knocked off in an evening. Studying your stats lays down a solid foundation of understanding teams, yet I have never seen a number that tells me when a team might be more or less motivated for a specific game. Winning isn’t supposed to be easy, that’s why most bettors lose.

In today’s world, where everything is seemingly going wrong, people are looking to those who have substantive answers (not those seeking to be elected officials) that can get the world back on track. Betting football changes every year, as home underdogs are super one year and not the next. This is where it pays to look beyond the curtain and see what else is available.

One of my colleagues at the Platinum Sheet is a big supporter in Yards Per Play. Most of our discussions have centered on the NFL, however this statistic can work in the college game as well.

Yards Per Play can work for a number of reasons, starting with a team like Missouri for example. The Tigers are led by Heisman contender Chase Daniel. With his skill and weaponry in the Missouri offense, they average 7.9 YPP. In is simplest form, the Tigers have shown the ability to create a first down every other play. Of course a number of teams would have that same ability by using that scale. But why it works for Missouri and other teams of its ilk, they have good first down gain, typically have short third down conversions to be made and make big plays that lead to points.

Here are the Top 10 teams in Yards Per Play (Regular and Spread Records)

Tulsa 6-0 4-1
Missouri 5-1 3-2
Texas Tech 6-0 2-1-1
UL-Louisiana 3-3 5-1
Oklahoma State 6-0 5-0
Arkansas State 4-2 2-3
Penn State 7-0 4-1-1
Ball State 7-0 5-0-1
Houston 3-3 2-3
Oklahoma 5-1 4-1

Total 52-10, 36-13-3 ATS

Rest assured these numbers will change since the Big 12 has four teams in the Top 10 in this category and many will face off against one another before the end of the regular season.

A question that comes to mind is will all these teams continue to be good wagers? Obviously defense, special teams and the schedule will all impact how these teams perform, however looking purely offensively, relative balance would seem to be imperative. Texas Tech is fine example. The Red Raiders passing game has been unsurpassed since Mike Leach has been the coach. For Texas Tech, 74.2 percent of their offense is generated thru the air. Now having to face stiffer competition in the Big 12, stronger defenses will try to take away the Red Raiders running game and limit the pass, making them even more one-dimensional and beatable.

Penn State seems well-suited for success, gaining able yardage per play and rushing accounting for 48.5 percent of their total yards gained and passing the rest.

What we are shown is pays well (sometimes very well) to be a multi-talented handicapper understanding several points to make you a winner. Plus, being able to do research to find hidden treasure can be worth its weight in gold.

Wagering info for Tuesday October 14

Our only official play yesterday was a winner on the trend with Cleveland. We’d like to thank Bill from Indiana for supplying us that fantastic angle. Today’s Top Trend is from the world of baseball and applies to tonight’s Game 4 contest. Our Best System is a first half play on one of Thursday night’s college football games and comes from Statfox.com. A few of the guys from the Left Coast Connection wager on the NHL and we’ll post their plays from time to time on slow days like today. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY UNDER on road teams where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 and the school is an excellent offensive team scoring 35 or more points a game, after a win by 17 or more points. BYU fits this profile for Thursday night on a system that is 25-4, 86.2 percent. This makes the play UNDER for the first half.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Tampa Bay is 1-13 against the money line in road games after scoring seven runs or more two straight games.

Free Selections -3) Eddie from the LCC bets football and hockey period. We'll give him a try with Minnesota tonight on the money line against Atlanta.

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Free Football Betting info for Columbus Day

Another good day with 2-1 record here, as Kendall missed on Oakland and was “only” 3-2 yesterday dropping him to 23-5 on the season. (Don’t we all wish we were doing this poorly) The only official play will be today’s Top Trend and it is a good one. Our system play doesn’t meet our standards, but is thought provoking on its own merit. On a personal note, I was 4-0 yesterday, hopefully I’ll get moving on all plays with momentum. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) Our Monday night system states its best to play on a team that rushed for 200 or more yards last week and won by more than seven points. This system is 16-7 ATS, 69.5 percent and is saying the Giants are the play.

Free Football Trend -2) Teams off a bye, playing at home and on the receiving end of six or more points are 24-3 ATS in this situation. That would be Cleveland tonight.

Free Selections -3) We are all over the place from our members of the Left Coast Connection, but here is what the majority of these guys are doing today. On the basepaths the Dodgers and Red Sox are the choices and Cleveland in the NFL. None of these plays will be rated by our standards.

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NFL Wagering Info from 3Daily Winners

It was one heck a day at 3Daily Winners and in fact a great college football week. Yesterday, all three of our selections were correct and if you review Friday’s system and trend we ended up 5-0, love to see those kind of numbers. Let’s try and do it again. Our Top System is an oldie but goodie at 85.7 percent dating back to 1983. Today’s Top Trend involves where numbers fall concerning Denver. Kendall from the Left Coast Connection is blistering bookies with a remarkable 20-3 record and has his Best Bet here today. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST all teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing six points or less last game against opponent after a loss by three or less points. In the last 25 years, this system is 24-4 ATS, 85.7 percent and suggests playing against Carolina today.

Free Football Trend -2) Denver is 0-10 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last two seasons.

Free Football Selection -3) The hottest handicapper in the NFL world we know of is Kendall at 20-3 and today his best play is on Oakland plus the points.

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Early Line Moves

For the Early Line Moves, we seek out the earliest lines and compare them on late Tuesday nights numbers to see what the so-called Line Movers do. By and large their track record is solid and dependable. Last week in college football, they were smashing 5-1 on sides and very nice 4-2 in college totals. This makes season record 28-17-1, 62.2 percent on sides and 22-12, 64.7 percent on Totals in CFB. In the NFL, they were 2-1 on sides bringing record to 9-4, 69.3 percent. On the Totals a 1-1 week makes the updated figure 6-8, 42.8 percent. This is the first time in years I’ve seen the NFL total below .500 at this point of the season. Enjoy reading and closely follow these numbers for wagering portfolio.

College Sides
South Carolina Pick to -2.5
Ce. Mich -10.5 to – 7.5
TCU -13 to -15.5
USC -25.5 to -28
Oregon -17 to -20.5
No. Carolina -5.5 to -11
Arkansas State 10.5 to 14
Flor. Int +2.5 to -2

College Totals
Troy/FAU 50 to 54 Lost
Mich. St/North 44 to 47
NM St./Nevada 64 to 67
BG/Akron 48.5 to 51.5
LSU/Flor. 49.5 to 46
Tulane/UTEP 55 to 58

NFL Sides
Indianapolis -6.5 to -4
Tampa Bay -3 to -1.5
Seattle +1 to -1

NFL Totals
Cin/NYJ 46.5 to 44.5
Det/Minn 47 to 45
Phil/SF 45 to 42.5
NE/SD 47 to 44.5

LSU vs Florida - You decide

We would love to have your opinion on tonight's Florida and LSU contest. Just click on the comment link and give us your thoughts.

More College Football Betting Material

Wrapped around a big Saturday of college football are a number of other important contests on the wagering docket. Among the monster matchups is Oklahoma State visiting Missouri in a battle of unbeaten Big 12 teams. The Big 10 has two big games with Michigan State playing at unbeaten Northwestern in afternoon action and Penn State making the journey to Madison to take on Wisconsin at night. No matter who starts at quarterback for either team, USC is large favorite over Arizona State. Click here to read more.

College Football Wagering Info

Our only play was incredible loss, as Louisville covered the spread with kickoff return, blocked field goal and fumble recovery, all for touchdowns. I’ll take my chances each time with a team like Memphis that out-gains the opponent 481-299. Just plain bad luck. Let’s turn out attention to what might go right today, like our Top System that is 26-4 ATS. We actually have 2 Top Trends and both involve the same game. An LLC member on a hot streak has an SEC Top Play today. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) Today’s Red River Rivalry shows to PLAY AGAINST Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points, off a road blowout win by 28 points or more, and undefeated on the season. This system is 26-4, 86.7 percent dating all the way back to 1992 and suggests playing Texas.

Free Football Trends -2) Two Trends actually collide pointing toward the same direction. Utah is 9-0 ATS after a game where they forced one or less turnovers over the last three seasons and their opponent Wyoming is 0-9 ATS after two or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last two years.

Free Football Selection -3) A member of the Left Coast Connection goes about his business and prefers not to be named and is on 11-2 run in college football and has South Carolina as his top play today.

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Oklahoma vs Texas

Without a doubt the biggest game this week is a familiar one, having been renamed the Red River Rivalry. Once again both bring in vast amounts of talented players, who are well-coached and primed for such a contest. Oklahoma arrives wearing the crown of number one after Baylor battering 49-17. Behind Sam Bradford, the Sooners are one of the most prolific scoring teams in the country, averaging 49.6 points per game. Bradford continues to be one of the most accurate chuckers of the pigskin in the country. The only time the sophomore ever has problems is when heavy pressure gets after him. This will be the assignment of Texas’ defensive front to make Bradford hesitant. Oklahoma is 11-7-1 ATS versus ranked teams in neutral settings.

The Texas defense is showing they are indeed a much more aggressive group under first-year coordinator Will Muschamp, who has the Texas defenders meeting at the quarterback this season. "We've been doing a good job all season," Muschamp said. "I kept telling the guys not to worry about sacks, because we were getting to the quarterback. I told them the sacks would come."

Quarterback Colt McCoy has been a more polished performer as a junior and will start garnering Heisman consideration if he keeps playing this well. Besides his usual pinpoint accuracy, McCoy has been a very effective runner, maybe too effective. Coach Mack Brown needs to find a ball-carrier that can carry the load and let McCoy not feel he has to do everything. Texas is only 2-8 ATS playing Top 10 teams at neutral sites.

This will not be the week for either team to be even slightly off their game. Media types questioned if Texas would look ahead playing a fair Colorado club on the road, and they waxed them 38-14. The Longhorns are outscoring teams by 35.8 points a game and are 21-8 ATS off two or more consecutive games playing Over the Total.

In much the same manner, Oklahoma has been completely dominant, also winning by 35.8 PPG. The only hiccup the Sooners have had was against TCU, gaining only 25 net yards on the ground, however were able to fully exploit the Horned Frogs secondary, passing for a season high 411 yards. Coach Bob Stoops club is 9-1 ATS after out-gaining the opposition by 125 or more total yards in two consecutive games.

Bookmaker.com has Oklahoma as 6.5-point favorites in Dallas with a total of 55.5. Besides the obvious intrigue of the Big 12 battle, the total shows quite a contrast between the two contestants. The Longhorns are 13-1 OVER after out-rushing opponent by 100 or more yards in three straight games, while Boomer Sooner is 9-1 UNDER on a neutral field where the total is between 52.5 and 56.

Oklahoma is the more complete team in this tussle and has won six of last eight, including 28-21 last season. When these Big 12 schools compete, many times the games are competitive, though not necessarily close, with nine of the last 10 decided by double digits. With Texas the underdog, bettors might take heed the dog is 13-7 ATS when these two collide. The winner has gone on to the Big 12 South title nine of 12 years.

Kickoff is at appropriately at high noon Eastern on ABC.

Friday Football Plays and Advise

I’d like to make a public apology to people that have signed up for my Free Plays. Yesterday I gave out a 2* play on Clemson. It’s not the fact they lost that bothers me, but how I came to that conclusion. Among the various publications I write for is the Platinum Sheet. It’s a sports betting tip sheet and in there I make picks for the NFL and college football. In this issue I had Wake Forest as one of my five Best Bets, based on the games we could select from. We have to submit these Monday morning for publication deadline. When I went and studied the numbers, honestly, I didn’t like the game either way and still preferred Wake Forest based on the same reasoning I had chosen them for the tip sheet. As the days wore on, smart bettors I talk to were all on Clemson for more reasons than I want to take the time to explain. I went back and looked at numbers and didn’t see any reason why my thinking was wrong. After literally over 30 people I respect told me the Tigers were the play, I convinced myself that I was the one who was wrong and changed my mind strong enough to make it play. When I saw how the line moved by game time I already knew I was beaten.

In the end, it should have been Wake or no play. Follow the wisdom of Yogi Berra who said, “You know what you know”. This won’t happen again this year. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Tulane in conference games, off an upset loss as a double digit home favorite. This system clicks along at a very comfortable 24-3, 88.9 percent the last decade, including picking up two wins already this season.

Free Football Trend -2) The Air Force is 9-0 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the last two seasons.

Free Football Selection -3) The Consensus from the Left Coast Connection is backing Memphis and I’ll agree for this very reason. I understand it’s not wise to back terrible defensive underdogs of the Tigers; however I have something that makes me overlook that fact. This is Louisville’s first road game and teams that hit the road for the first time on their fifth contest are 9-18-1 ATS when favored or a pick.

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American League Series Preview

If familiarity breeds contempt, than this has the making of a special American League pennant series. Start with the fact these are division partners, hard to call them rivals until this year with the history of the two clubs. In the first 13 games between these teams, the home team won every time. Tampa Bay finally broke the string on Sept. 9 in Boston and won the next day also, winning a series in Beantown for the first time in their existence (1-23-2). Later in the month, the Red Sox won for the first time in Tampa and many believed this is where they would roll past the Rays and win the division, instead Joe Maddon’s young team stood up and won the next two games, effectively holding serve and later captured the AL East crown.

Having seen how well Tampa Bay played all year, it’s easy to forget how incredibly bad this franchise has been since its inception, thus a little history lesson. Until this year, Tampa Bay had never been above .500; in fact they had never won 71 games in a season. Just two seasons ago, the Rays tied the major league record (Philadelphia Athletics 1943) for fewest road wins after July 1, winning three times in last 39 games played. On top of that, they led the major leagues in the number of leads blown with 94 and set a new American League record by losing 60 games that they had led. The Rays led in 121 games, but won only 61. Based on its putrid past and playing in baseball’s toughest division, Tampa had about as much chance of winning the AL East as the world’s fattest man getting married (he is).

The Boston Red Sox are the best example of what a well run organization looks like in baseball today. The Boston Red Sox were New England’s version of the Chicago Cubs for decades. The “Sox” had several close calls over the years to be World Series champions, but in the end, always came up short. That was until 2004, with a new ownership group in place, Red Sox management took what appeared to be huge risk in hiring 28-year old Theo Epstein to be their general manager the prior year. Epstein and the rest of the franchise put a plan together to play a certain style of baseball and trade away players that didn’t fit or trade for those that did. The farm system was immediately revamped to reflect this culture and in short, this has worked to near perfection with two World Series titles in four years.

These two teams had a pretty good baseball fight in June, by the sports standards and bad blood was spilled at least verbally by both teams. Daisuke Matsuzaka (18-3, 2.97) will pitch Game 1 in Tampa, mostly because how well he has pitched on the road with 9-0 record and Boston winning 11 of his 13 starts. Josh Beckett (14-12, 4-12) will follow, with Red Sox manager Terry Francona saying Beckett is healthy and was just rusty against Los Angeles. Back home, baseball’s best postseason starting pitcher of late Jon Lester (17-6, 3.01) will go and Tim Wakefield (10-11, 4.13) will start Game 4.

Manager Maddon will go with the rotation he had for the ALDS, with James Shields (15-8, 3.58) leading off at Tropicana Field, where he and Rays are 15-3 this year. Left-hander Scott Kazmir (13-8, 3.48) is next being their most experienced member on the staff. When they travel to Boston, Matt Garza (11-10 3.82) will start Game 3 despite being 4-7 on the road. Andy Sonnanstine (14-9, 4.34) will complete the initial go-round.

My Take: Because Boston is so patient at the plate, their approach can be demoralizing to competitors, ask the Angels about the number of two strike hits and two out runs the Red Sox scored in the ALDS. Because Tampa Bay pitchers don’t have overpowering stuff other than Kazmir, Boston will have their chances if they continue same approach. Tampa Bay actually is similar to the Red Sox in how they work at the plate, with a high walk total. The Rays hit more home runs and can make things happen on the base paths with 142 steals this year.

The Red Sox are tough, intelligent team that understands how to win. Their starting pitching beyond Matsuzaka and Lester is a question mark coming into this series. Will Tampa Bay’s youth catch up to them? This team is no fluke and with a couple of guys hitting home runs like B.J. Upton or Evan Longoria, anything becomes possible. Tampa Bay won the season series 10-8, however the “been there, done that” approach of Boston wins out in a long series.

Series odds from Bookmaker.com: Boston -133, Tampa Bay +113

Friday October 10
Boston (Matsuzaka) at Tampa Bay (Shields) 8:37 EDT

Saturday October 11
Boston (Beckett) at Tampa Bay (Kazmir) 8:07 EDT

Monday October 13
Tampa Bay (Garza) at Boston (Lester) 4:37 EDT

Tuesday October 14
Tampa Bay (Sonnanstine) at Boston (Wakefield) 8:37 EDT

Thursday October 16
Tampa Bay at Boston if necessary

Saturday October 18
Boston at Tampa Bay if necessary

Sunday October 19
Boston at Tampa Bay if necessary


Offensive – American League
Runs scored -Boston 2nd Tampa Bay 9th
Home Runs -Boston 6th Tampa Bay 5th
Total Bases -Boston 4th Tampa Bay 8th
Slugging Ptc. -Boston 3rd Tampa Bay8th
Walks -Boston 7th Tampa Bay 2nd
On base Ptc. -Boston 1st Tampa Bay 5th

Pitching & Defense
ERA -Boston 4th Tampa Bay 2nd
Strikeouts -Boston 1st Tampa Bay 3rd
Walks -Boston 6th Tampa Bay 8th
On base Ptc. -Boston 4th Tampa Bay 2nd
Putouts -Boston 5th Tampa Bay 1st
Errors -Boston 3rd Tampa Bay 4th

October 9 Sports Betting Information

That was an odd couple of days of almost no sports; thank goodness that’s over. At least was able to catch up on few things I had got behind on in terms of information. We have a very good System play and Top Trend to think about this upcoming weekend in the NFL for today. Our top guy Sal from the Left Coast Connection has made two wagers on the MLB series, see whom he choose to win. Special Note - Clemson has gone from +2.5 point underdog to one point favorite today alone. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY UNDER on any team like Arizona against the total after beating the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game, being a team with 60% to 75% winning percentage, playing a team with a winning record. This system is 27-6, 81.8 percent over the last decade. Consider the total for Cowboys and Cards.

Free Football Trend -2) The New Orleans Saints are 1-16 ATS as home favorite of more than two points off a loss and non-cover and the total is 42 or more points.

Free Baseball Selections -3) Sal our baseball guru has bet the Dodgers and the Red Sox to win their respective series.

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National League Series Preview

Postseason baseball has changed dramatically over the last several years. In the past, normally the best team in each league would advance to the World Series and the favored team would win more often than not or the occasional upset would occur. Presently, those days are more gone than the thought of one’s house increasing in value. In today’s modern playoff baseball it’s similar to most people’s outlook on life, “What have you done for me lately?”

The Los Angeles Dodgers took a calculated risk in trading for Manny Ramirez, hoping the talented, yet eccentric player could ignite a clubhouse that was as exciting as trip through a McDonald’s drive-thru. Ramirez proved to the lightning rod, showing his teammates how to be a professional baseball player in terms of preparation, yet having fun and being just wacky enough he could fit right in at Venice Beach. The Dodgers so outplayed the Cubs, you would have thought they won 97 games during the regular season and are since September 6, are 22-8.

While the Chicago Cubs have spent a century not being a very good baseball team, the Philadelphia Phillies have not exactly been stuffing their trophy case with championship hardware. Since first becoming a big league franchise in 1883 (Chester Arthur was President) the Phillies went 97 years before being World Series champions in 1980 and the newest streak is up to a mere 27 years. Philadelphia was barely given credit for winning the NL East a year ago, winning it on the last day of the regular season thanks to the New York Mets collapse and being swept quickly in three games by Colorado. This season the Phillies had many peaks and valleys, yet at crunch time, they were tough. With the series win over Milwaukee, the Phils are on 16-4 run-out.

To win this series, Los Angeles needs to play to its tactical edges. With Rafael Furcal and Russell Martin on-base at the top of the lineup, Manny Ramirez creates fear as a RBI-machine. When Manny either gets a hit or is semi-intentionally walked, this gives James Loney and Andre Ethier a chance to finish off a big inning. The Dodgers bullpen has been as steady as Amy Winehouse, but reliever Jonathan Broxton as been anchor of late. After Cole Hamels, the Dodgers have the next three starters in the NLCS with starters Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley and Hiroki Kuroda.

Having won 16 of 20, the Philadelphia offense receives a great deal of credit. The real secret to this winning stretch has been the pitching. In their last 20 games, the Phillies have allowed more than four runs just three times, keeping them in games the offense can win. Having home field advantage in the series, the Phils must show patience at the dish. The Dodgers and Philly bullpens have similar ERA’s at 3.34 and 3.21 respectively; however the Dodgers are nearly a full run higher on the road. Chase Utley and his teammates need to go deep into counts, piling up Dodgers pitch counts and takes hacks the L.A. bullpen.

3DW Take – If good pitching stops good hitting, than the edge has to go to the Dodgers. Joe Torre can run out three starters all capable of winning each game and a case can be made in Lowe’s favor in the opener, being 40-20 vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game on the season. (Team’s Record) It’s difficult to gauge Dodgers mediocre road record on the season, as this is a different team. In order to win the series, Philadelphia is going to need two wins on the days Brett Myers and Jamie Moyer pitch and not sure that will happen. Home field has meant everything between these two teams, each sweeping a four game series this season. Slight edge to the Dodgers to advance.


Series odds from Sportbook.com: Dodgers -110, Phillies -110

Thursday October 9
L.A. Dodgers (Lowe) at Philadelphia (Hamels) 8:22 EDT

Friday October 10
L.A. Dodgers (Billingsley) at Philadelphia (Myers) 4:35 EDT

Saturday October 12
Philadelphia (Moyer) at L.A. Dodgers (Kuroda) 8:22 EDT

Sunday October 13
Philadelphia () at L.A. Dodgers () 8:22 EDT

Tuesday October 15
Philadelphia at L.A. Dodgers if necessary

Thursday October 17
L.A. Dodgers at Philadelphia if necessary

Friday October 18
L.A. Dodgers at Philadelphia if necessary



Offensive – National League
Runs scored -Dodgers 13th Philadelphia 3rd
Home Runs -Dodgers 13th Philadelphia 1st
Total Bases -Dodgers 13th Philadelphia 3rd
Slugging Ptc. -Dodgers 13th Philadelphia 2nd
Walks -Dodgers 11th Philadelphia 5th
On base Ptc. -Dodgers 6th Philadelphia 7th

Pitching & Defense
ERA -Dodgers 1st Philadelphia 4th
Strikeouts -Dodgers 5th Philadelphia 11th
Walks -Dodgers 2nd Philadelphia 6th
On base Ptc. -Dodgers 1st Philadelphia 6th
Putouts -Dodgers 9th Philadelphia 7th
Errors -Dodgers 10th Philadelphia 5th

Defensive Dogs are Great Bets in College Football

It was probably around 1995 when I first came across this betting system for college football. For some reason it stuck in my mind, probably because it always made sense, though for some reason never committed it the vast amount of material I keep track of in all the various sports. In fact, one part of the original system I found is not an aspect of this equation, strictly because it’s been forgotten. As you will read, this will have no affect on how profitable this college football betting system can be.

Like most of the systems that I uncover, I prefer to keep in simple, not having too much to clutter my simpe mind or think about with my University of Phoenix degree (just kidding). What we want is a clean system, easy to understand and an easy way to track down the information. Here it is:

Look to Play On a college football team that allows 275 or less yards per game, particularly in the role of underdog.

The first part of this system makes all the sense in the world, since the number of teams we’re talking about is very few from year to year. The old cliché, “defenses win championships” holds up, even in weekly situations, because if any team is holding opponents to 275 or fewer yards, they should be in almost any game they are playing in.

To prove the point, we went back five years to discover how good these defensive gems actually were. It must be noted, this perspective is based on the whole body of work for the season, not the individual games and team ranking at that moment. This strengthens the point at the end of any particular year. However, during the course a season, starting this week, you should have confidence to consider any team for a potential wager. Never base a selection on one aspect, yet if you have other reasons to like specific team, this could be the clincher as a reason to officially make such a wager.

Starting in 2003, the two best teams in the country that season were LSU and Oklahoma. Both teams had exceptional regular seasons and were chosen to play in the BCS championship in New Orleans. The Tigers ended up holding teams to 252 yards per game on the way to BCS title and were monster money-makers at 11-2 that season. The only time they were an underdog was against Oklahoma in season finale. The Sooners had been among the best defensive teams all season and were unbeaten until they lost to Kansas State in the Big 12 title game. Oklahoma was never an underdog in 2003. Miami-FL. ended up being second in the country in total defense that season and was an underdog twice that year, both times to Florida State, whom they beat during the regular season and in the Orange Bowl.

Four teams made the cut in 2004; they were N.C. State, Alabama, LSU and Virginia Tech. The Wolfpack (5-6) and the Crimson Tide (6-5) were run of the mill teams because of terrible offenses. N.C. State finished 82nd nationally and Alabama 97th, proving even outstanding defenses need some help. Because of these deficiencies, Bama was 2-2 ATS as underdogs and Wolfpack was slightly better at 2-1-1 ATS. A year after being the kings of college football, LSU was 9-3 overall and was 2-1 ATS as underdogs. Virginia Tech was one of the surprises of 2004 in posting a 9-2 regular season. The Hokies were led a thumping defense and gave an unbeaten Auburn team all they could handle in the Sugar Bowl, before falling 16-13, catching six points. They were perfect 3-0 on the receiving end of points.

In 2005, three of the same teams that were on the defensive list from the previous year were on it again. Virginia Tech, LSU and Alabama made the roster and Miami-FL reappeared again. These four universities were barking dogs in the truest sense that season, posting an 8-1-1 against the spread record, led by the Hokies who were once against 3-0.

Two seasons ago, the NCAA instituted rule changes to speed up the college football game, which led 14 fewer plays per game that season. At the same time, defenses just happened to have a more dominant season and 10 teams held the opposition to 275 yards or less, led by the omnipresent Hokies of Frank Beamer, who surrendered just 219.5 yards per game. No question the fewer plays mattered, based on averages. Of the 14 plays, presume seven each were on offense and the better defensive teams of that season allowed 4.4 yards per play, lowering any teams total by at least 30 yards per game.

It turned out to be a banner campaign for Rutgers, who emerged from nowhere to hit the national spotlight and their fourth-ranked defense was 5-0 ATS as underdogs. Michigan won both their matchups on the receiving end of points and Georgia was 3-1 against the number in the same role. The top 10 defense teams were 17-9-1 ATS when positioned as underdogs by oddsmakers.

In 2007, those rules were reconfigured and only two teams were stout enough to repress the opposition from making more than 275 yards of offense. By this time of the last football season, Ohio State and LSU had distinguished themselves as the two most talented teams in the country. The Buckeyes arrived earlier than believed, however the talent was obvious. The Bayou Tigers didn’t always play their best football for 60 minutes, but they made plays when they had to. Because these teams were so good, neither was an underdog until Ohio State was given the role in the BCS championship game. LSU had their way with coach Jim Tressel’s Buckeyes, making this the only game that qualified for this system.

Here is a review of the years of this system against the spread.

2007 0-1
2006 17-9-1
2005 8-1-1
2004 9-4-1
2003 3-0

Total 37-15-3, 71.1 percent

As previously stated, this is with the benefit of looking back, not being in the present. There are currently 20 teams that are under the 275-yard threshold. One has to have football acumen to realize Boston College probably doesn’t figure to be here for long, having played Kent State, Central Florida and FCS squad Rhode Island.

Louisville is unlikely to be hanging out in this neighborhood for long, since teams that give 23 points per game, will eventually find their watermark.

Coach Bob Toledo is making exceptional alterations at Tulane and the defense is much improved, since the days when a younger Tommy Bowden had an unbeaten Green Wave squad in 1998. Nonetheless, the idea of Tulane hanging in the area is ludicrous. They fell from eight to 17th in total defense after Army ran roughshod over the Green Wave for 290 yards rushing. With five of last seven remaining games on the road, playing in offensive-minded Conference USA, it seems Tulane will stay with this contingent as likely as the return of “Elf” to NBC.

Just this past weekend, underdog members of this club, Florida State, South Carolina and Kentucky all covered the linemakers number, with the first two winning outright.

Among the teams that fit this week are LSU as an underdog at Florida, holding teams to 262.2 yards per game and Tennessee at Georgia.

Being able to Play On a defensive dandy on the receiving end of points can be a very enjoyable and profitable venture.

Betting Football in Rearview Mirror

With how the year has started, beginning to wonder if we will see a return to 2006 with college football teams having lost exactly three games against the spread. This is subject which has been followed the previous four seasons. In 2005 and 2007, the results were mediocre with these spread losers 29-28 and 27-23 ATS respectively. Two seasons ago was a watershed year to play against these teams with 16-33 ATS record and this season they have started 4-7 against the spread. This is worth keeping a close eye on. Of similar interest for sports bettors is teams off three consecutive covers are 5-8-1 ATS in next outing.

Delving into another area, we look at all college football teams off a home underdog win in next game. Thus far in 2008, these teams are 4-10 ATS. After being around .500 in previous seasons, FBS squads were 23-29 ATS last year and the trend continues in an election year (not that has anything to do with it) to play against these teams. To be honest, this is what I thought it would be every year, with college age football players having a “football hangover” from winning as home dogs and coming up flat, being slightly overrated the next week.

Do’s

The up and down lethargy associated with the Georgia Tech football program has been replaced by crisp, hard-nosed, solid football at the Atlanta based university. Head coach Paul Johnson has brought a disciplined style of organization, with different expectations in his first season. Johnson’s run option attack is chewing up 290.2 yards per game, which is fifth in the country. Yes, the Yellow Jackets still turn the ball over too much learning the intricacies of how to run the offense. However, they can overcome this problem by having the 14th ranked defense that has more than one player in the defensive line with NFL ability. This is a Play On team, already at 4-0 ATS.

I know I’ve been over this more than once and you might be getting sick of reading about it, but it bears repeating, since it’s such a winner. With not many games remaining, the Big East is 6-21 ATS in non-conference play. This is so bad it breaks up the day for Wall Street workers, looking for something to cheer them up. In an article I wrote on this subject, I also mentioned once conference play started, underdogs would hold real value, as the league as whole is right with “Lipstick Jungle” when it comes to rankings. To date, all four favorites in Big East action are 0-4 ATS.

How can you not like a team that scores 56.4 points a game and averages 596 yards a game? The Tulsa Golden Hurricane was uncertain quantity coming into this campaign, after losing three-year starting quarterback Paul Smith. Nine other offensive players returned and new starter David Johnson has fit in better than John Stamos on ER. At 5-0 and 5-0 ATS, the remainder of the schedule is doable, though hardly certain. Even if Arkansas is down, they are still an SEC team and will present Tulsa problems with their speed in early November. Two weeks later if they are 9-0, a trip to Houston might be the last major obstacle for an unbeaten season. Scoring 50 points a game will help any team cover spreads.

Don’ts

You’ve heard the expression “sometimes things get worse before they get better”; this would apply in Pullman, WA, home of Washington State. After four non-productive seasons with Bill Doba as head coach, Cougars brass picked up the services of Paul Wulff, who had built a strong program at FCS Eastern Washington. Dismiss the 48-9 romp over Portland State and the Wazzou offense has scored 50 total points in the five contests. On the way, the defense has allowed 48.2 points a game, which means they have lost by 38 PPG against schools in BCS conferences. Finding another win or two and cover might require the services of “The Mentalist”.

The fortunes of North Texas have plummeted since winning the Sun Belt Conference four years in a row and going to New Orleans Bowl from 2001-04. Starting in 2005, the Eagles are 7-35, 14-26 ATS since that time. How bad are things in Denton, TX, the former Mean Green is next to last in the country in points scored at 13 a game and dead last in points allowed at a ghastly 52.2 per game. It would not seem prudent to wager on this sad Sun Belt squad.

NFL Betting Thoughts

In the NFL, time zone travel continues to be an issue, as teams flying two or more time zones away from home are 4-8 ATS. Home dog lovers continue to take their lumps at 7-14 against the oddsmaker. Thus far real money can be made finding short favorites right near game time. Any NFL team that is favored by three or less points is 20-10-1 ATS thus far.

What’s the problem with San Diego? Start with all those years LaDainian Tomlinson never played in the preseason. When he was younger, his body could respond to hits more quickly and he could get in a groove swiftly. Last year L.T. started slowly and couldn’t go later in the AFC title game. Again trying to protect the 29-year old running back, who saw no action in the preseason and he’s been dinged in each game. The Chargers can’t run him to set the tone of the game, forced to rely on quarterback Philip Rivers. In a league where quarterback play is so important, San Diego has the worst pass defense in the league surrendering 265.6 yards per game. Add these factors together and Norv Turner has to come up with answers quick.

In watching the Green Bay Packers, one obvious visible note, they are not playing hard and tackling worse. I would like to throw kudos to John Madden for bringing up the lack of effective tackling Green Bay defenders perform. In the Atlanta loss, at least a 15 times, Packer defensive players were in position to make tackles for little or no gain for Falcons runners and instead of wrapping up, they tried to use a shoulder and were bumped off. With injuries piling up and Aaron Rodgers trying to play with a bad wing, the Pack is quickly developing as a play against team.

Enough all ready, sit Jon Kitna! He’s done as a starting quarterback. Let Drew Stanton or somebody else play on a team that will need a fresh start in 2009.

What does a Super Bowl win do for your confidence? Ask Eli Manning. The Giants and Manning were strictly middle of the road in passing yards per attempt in the mid six’s during his career, now Eli is leading a team that is at 7.5 YPA and sixth in this category. Hard to bet against the “other” Manning and his team right now.

Slow Sports Betting Tuesday

With nothing going on the next two days in sports, here is a preview I wrote for Tuesday night's Sun Belt contest.

Coming off a conference championship season and a New Orleans Bowl romp of Memphis, this was supposed to be a banner campaign for Florida Atlantic with 18 returning starters. Instead the weight of another imposing non-conference schedule has proven too much to bare and carried over into Sun Belt action for the Owls. Playing their fourth road contest last week, the Owls controlled Middle Tennessee State 13-0 in the latter stage of the fourth quarter. However, because of four turnovers by Florida Atlantic, the Blue Raiders had one last chance and connected on a 32-yard Hail Mary pass and kicked the extra point with no time on the clock to come away with a kick in the gut 14-13 victory.

Heading into a big showdown Tuesday against Sun Belt Conference title-contender Troy, coach Howard Schnellenberger was still miffed days later about the improbable loss. So Schnellenberger laid into his team during a pre-practice gathering Thursday at the school's practice facility. "I've chewed a lot of football teams out but this is the first time I felt that it was my responsibility to take the hard line (at FAU)," Schnellenberger said. "This is what they needed. They're grown men now. They have enough ability to win and we didn't."

The Owls are at least pleased to be back home and this is critical contest if they are looking to repeat as Sun Belt champs. Florida Atlantic is not in the best position, being 3-7 ATS off a conference loss. Quarterback Rusty Smith is really sputtering. The junior has been projected as NFL draft choice, yet has not thrown a touchdown pass in three games and been intercepted six times after throwing nine all of last season.

The FAU run defense will have to come up big. Last week they held M.T.S. to 55 yards, which is not as imposing as it sounds with the Blue Raiders 118th in the country at 66.4 yards per game. Troy averages 180 yards a game on the ground and is balanced offensively throwing for 262 yards a contest.

Troy’s sophomore quarterback Jamie Hampton has made some mistakes, but has rewarded coach Larry Blakeney by making big plays with his arm and legs. He had passed for more than 900 yards and nine touchdowns and also has shown the ability to hurt opponents running the ball. The Trojans are averaging 442 yards a game against opponents that have allowed 405 YPG.

The Troy defense is solid at linebacker with Boris Lee and Bear Woods, who are having all-conference type seasons, nevertheless, the strength of the Trojans defense is the secondary, ranking 17th in the country at 160.2 yards allowed and only 5.9 yards per attempt. This is a big plus against what could be crisp FAU pass attack.

Troy will also have revenge on their minds, having lost in the final game of last season to Florida Atlantic 38-32, as 16-point home favorites to cost them conference title and bowl game. Knocking the Owls out of contention would be sweet redemption.
Bookmaker.com has Troy as 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 51. The Trojans are 5-1 ATS in this role in conference the last three seasons, including starting the year with a winner at Mid. Tenn. State 31-17 as a six-point choice. Florida Atlantic is 9-5 ATS as a single digit underdog and 2-2 against the spread as home underdog since linemakers started listing their games in 2004.

Look for the team that can capitalize on mistakes to come out the winner. FAU has committed 10 turnovers in last three games and Troy has 13 miscues on the year. ESPN2 will have the broadcast commencing at 8 Eastern with Troy 4-1 and 3-1 ATS versus the Owls.

One other bit of information to consider, Troy is 1-5 ATS in revenge games if opponent is off two or more straight losses.

Sports Betting Info for October 6

In the interest of fairness, we’re going to take a 1-1-1 record for yesterday. Anyone who viewed the blog an hour before game time on Houston and Indianapolis would have been correct at -3.5 points. Accordingly to our contacts, about 60 minutes before the game, the line moved to Indy -4 and just 10-15 minutes before kickoff, several books went to -4.5 (though not all), with extremely heavy action on the Colts. Seeing this happened so close it kickoff, it seems highly unlikely many had this contest at -4.5, but we’ll side even-handed play and call it a push. If you used the Thursday system with New England, our overall record was a profitable 2-1-1 week in the NFL for Sunday. In our Top Trends, we’ll give you and option with two superior angles. Our Top System is a 75 percent winner relating only to MNF. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) We come back with last week’s Monday night system, which is to fade any Monday night football team that lost against the spread on the road last week when their opponent covered the number at home. This easy to understand system is 18-6, 75 percent the last dozen seasons. This means play New Orleans.

Free Baseball Trend -2) John Lackey and the Angels are 9-1 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last two seasons or you might like Jon Lester and Boston who is 13-1as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season.

Free Football Selection -3) In all honesty, surprised this many bettors from the Left Coast Connection are playing the Monday Night contest, easily the most this season by the tally I receive. Fifteen members are on Minnesota and six on New Orleans.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

Free NFL Picks for Week 5

Officially 3Daily Winners was 2-1 yesterday, but I tip my hat to Slick Rick for changing his play as a courtesy to our readers. He understood the line value on Iowa was gone and took another team. In this case Baylor was wrong (SR was 5-1 by the way yesterday) yet he was willing to do the right thing. Overall, with the other college systems from earlier this week, we closed yesterday at profitable 3-2. Kendall is back with another Free Play, he has been just sick (in a good way) this year. Our Free Trend takes a peek at what might happen into tonight’s Sunday night contest. Our Top System is 17-4, 80.9 percent and looks at a divisional game this afternoon. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON a road team that lost by three or less points at home before they had a bye. Why this works is these teams have had two weeks to get over a close loss and are ready to move on. This staunch system is 17-4 ATS, 80.9 percent. Play the Colts for this one.

Free Football Trend -2) Pittsburgh is 0-7 ATS when on the road after a home win.

Free Football Selection -3) Our King of the NFL, Kendall is 17-2 this season and is taking a team from my area, Arizona to cover the short number.

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