A peculiar 1-1-1 day as Tennessee pushed at home with line moving up to -27. I was pleased to be on Florida State and escaped by a single point. The Washington Generals couldn’t beat the Harlem Globetrotters, sorry Miami Heat as expected. We have a perfect Trend loaded for reasoning in the NBA this evening. No great systems available today, thus will look to college football on Saturday with TWO plays out an 81.8 percent system. Also, the LCC checks in on tonight's important college football game.Good Luck.
Updating 3Daily Winners at monitors.
Free Sports Monitor #1 NFL
Free Sports Monitor #2 CBB
The Sports Eye #3 NFL
The Sports Eye #5 CFB
The Sports Eye #1 NHL (Free Plays)
Cappers Watchdog #7 NFL (Win percentage - Min.20 plays)
Cappers Watchdog #2 NHL (Win percentage)
Free Football System-1) Play Against road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points after having won three out of their last four games against opponent after having won six or seven out of their last eight games. This college football system is 27-6 ATS, 81.8 percent. There are two Play Against teams the fit, Air Force and Michigan State.
Free Basketball Trend -2) UTAH is 11-0 ATS in home games after failing to cover three of their last four against the spread over the last two seasons.
Free Football Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection has tonight's big MAC game this way - Central Michigan 10 members, Ball State minus the points 3 members.
Tuesday Wagering Options
Yesterday’s 2-1 record makes 3Daily Winners 7-2 the last three days, which is nice to see. We are not expecting these types of results all the time, especially with basketball coming more into focus, creating more volatility. All we ask is be patient, take it one day at a time and as we have shown the results will be there. The highly ranked Tennessee Vols are very difficult to beat at home as you can see in today’s Top Trend. Our Top System will summon strength from a lower region to play this NBA team, yet impossible to say a 95.2 percent play is a bad idea. Free Plays nothing special, with strong opinion offered. Good Luck.
Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON any team like the Washington (Generals) Wizards after going under the total by more than six points in three consecutive games, who have a winning percentage of 25 percent or less on the season. This system is sumptuous 20-1 ATS. Holy _ _ _ _!
Free Basketball Trend -2) The Tennessee Vols are 16-2 ATS in home games after one or more consecutive wins over the last 2+ seasons.
Free Football Selection -3) Nobody is too crazy about tonight's card in any sports. Only six guys from the Left Coast Connection are betting NIU and Kent State, with the Huskies a 4-2 choice. A few like the Indiana Pacers in the NBA and the college basketball plays are all over the board. Myself, I like Florida State because they were favored by 17.5 at home to LaSalle last season and with both teams having similar players back, the Noles are just a three point play on the road, with typical swing about eight points.
Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON any team like the Washington (Generals) Wizards after going under the total by more than six points in three consecutive games, who have a winning percentage of 25 percent or less on the season. This system is sumptuous 20-1 ATS. Holy _ _ _ _!
Free Basketball Trend -2) The Tennessee Vols are 16-2 ATS in home games after one or more consecutive wins over the last 2+ seasons.
Free Football Selection -3) Nobody is too crazy about tonight's card in any sports. Only six guys from the Left Coast Connection are betting NIU and Kent State, with the Huskies a 4-2 choice. A few like the Indiana Pacers in the NBA and the college basketball plays are all over the board. Myself, I like Florida State because they were favored by 17.5 at home to LaSalle last season and with both teams having similar players back, the Noles are just a three point play on the road, with typical swing about eight points.
Monday Nov. 17 Betting Info
Another solid winning day Sunday with 2-1 record (5-1 the last two days) and we turn out attention to college basketball wagering with a System that is 80 percent the last few seasons and is based on solid principles. Those with the Versus Network on your cable system can watch how tonight’s Top Trend play out. Good Luck.
Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON favorites of 10 or more points like Boston College against a marginal losing team from last season like Loyola-MD, who won 40-49 percent of their games, with four starters returning from last season. This hoops system is 20-5 ATS, 80 percent since 2006.
Free Hockey Trend -2) The Toronto Maple Leafs are 1-7 against the money line off back to back road games.
Free Football Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection has 10 for Buffalo, 3 for Cleveland and 17 for the Under. One member called me today and said he has quality information that says Central Michigan is strong play in CBB tonight. Let's see what happens.
Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.
Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON favorites of 10 or more points like Boston College against a marginal losing team from last season like Loyola-MD, who won 40-49 percent of their games, with four starters returning from last season. This hoops system is 20-5 ATS, 80 percent since 2006.
Free Hockey Trend -2) The Toronto Maple Leafs are 1-7 against the money line off back to back road games.
Free Football Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection has 10 for Buffalo, 3 for Cleveland and 17 for the Under. One member called me today and said he has quality information that says Central Michigan is strong play in CBB tonight. Let's see what happens.
Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.
MNF in Buffalo has Two Quarterbacks who can wing it
As far as Mr. Quinn’s long anticipated first game at quarterback in the NFL, Brady earned an ‘A’ for the Browns last Thursday night but the rest of the bunch got a failing grade as Cleveland (3-6, 5-4 ATS) slipped further out of playoff contention with a crippling 34-30 loss to visiting Denver.The Browns second collapse in five days was no fault of Quinn, who completed 23 of 35 passes for 239 yards and two touchdowns and no turnovers. Both scoring tosses went to tight end Kellen Winslow, who had 11 catches for 111 yards. Cleveland also had a season-high 160 yards rushing; however, its defense was torched by Jay Cutler and allowed 564 total yards—the second-most produced in Broncos history. Cleveland is 10-2 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last three seasons.
Barring injury, there’s no turning back for the Browns. Quinn’s the starter; Derek Anderson’s the backup and likely trade bait during the off-season. Sooner or later it had to happen, and the last straw came in Week 9 against Baltimore when Anderson threw an ill-advised, game-sealing interception that Terrell Suggs brought back for a touchdown.
In Buffalo, Quinn will face a defense that’s allowed only eight passing touchdowns in nine games. But the Bills, 5-4 (4-5 ATS) after last week’s 20-10 loss at New England and mired in a three-game funk, are having trouble getting to the quarterback (14 sacks) and forcing turnovers (12). The Bills are 14-2 ATS after playing the Patriots.
Buffalo has only one win and cover since September and they’ve cracked 20 points just once during the same span. Many fans in Buffalo are lobbying for more carries for running back Marshawn Lynch, who has yet to surpass 100 yards in a game in 2008 after doing so three times in 13 starts as a rookie. However, he does have six touchdowns for a team that 11-1 in November as home favorite versus a non-division team.
Last year’s meeting between these teams was a classic old school viewing. Played in a blizzard in Cleveland, the Browns won 8-0 on two Phil Dawson field goals and a safety. Winds gusted to 40 miles per hour, and Anderson and Trent Edwards combined to complete 22 of 57 passes (38.6 percent) but neither turned the ball over. The victory gave the Browns an 8-5 lead in the all-time regular-season series.
Bookmaker.com has Buffalo as five-point favorite with a total of 41.5. The Bills are 8-1 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record the last two years. A sharp contrast in totals trends is noted for this Monday night affair. Cleveland is 8-1 OVER after allowing 30 points or more last game and coach Dick Jauron’s squad is 6-0 UNDER after two or more consecutive losses against the spread since 2006.
Cleveland covers if they change up a little more this week, being more aggressive in setting up passing game with Quinn and letting Jamal Lewis pound away up the gut later in the game. The former Fighting Irish star showed good poise in throwing short and medium routes and should take shots deep to Braylon (concrete hands) Edwards. Defensive coordinator Mel Tucker has to be wiser to not expose his cornerbacks like last week, since they lack confidence and can be beaten. The Browns are 22-11 ATS after one or more consecutive spread losses.
Buffalo covers by playing the right opponent at the right time. The Bills have rushed for a sliver over 80 yards in losing four of five. The Browns surrender 145 yards on the ground, making this the right moment for Buffalo to get running game back in order. It’s becoming more obvious Trent Edwards, like most quarterbacks does better with good ground attack and is not nearly as comfortable having to play passer all game. Run the pigskin against weak Cleveland run defense and throw shorter passes to rebuild Edwards confidence. Can Quinn chuck the ball around the gridiron, find out be taking away the Browns running game. The Bills are 19-7 ATS in home games in weeks 10 through 13 at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
This week’s Monday night system is to Play Against any road underdog that has failed to cover the spread in last two games. This means voting against the Browns, with this system 20-8 ATS, 71.4 percent and racking up earlier win against Denver when they lost to New England 41-7.
WILD, WILD NFL
WildCat. WildHog. WildThing.Call it anything you want, but some form of the WildWhatever offense has stampeded onto a playing field near you.
This latest NFL trend is confusing the defenses and entertaining the masses. The unorthodox offensive scheme, referred to by most as the WildCat offense or formation, is somewhat of a rarity to catch with only 10 to 15 of these plays being called in a given week.
I don't know the exact position terminology and it would probably get confusing so I'm just going to breakdown this formation with simplicity. A skill player such as a running back or wide receiver lines up in shotgun formation. A second skill player player is positioned to that player's right or left. Once the ball is snapped to the player directly behind center he has three options. Run the ball, hand the ball off to his teammate or throw the ball.
You may have seen a version of this offense in college football called the spread offense. The same principles are applied here except that the quarterback is taken out of the backfield. On some occasions the quarterback is positioned as a wideout and in others he's watching from the sidelines.
The primary advantage of utilizing this formation is that instead of playing with 10 offensive players versus 11 defensive players when the quarterback is on the field, the offense can operate on an even level with 11 on 11 in personnel terms. The element of surprise is also an edge as the defense has to be on its toes when this formation is presented.
The Miami Dolphins unleashed this ground-borne virus that is spreading throughout the league against New England in Week 3 of the season. They absolutely ran all over the Pats, combining backs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams to create 216 yards of offense and parlaying that success into a 38-13 victory. In Week 5 they made mincemeat of the San Diego Chargers, shredding them for 167 yards on 12 WildCat carries.
Bill Parcell's freshest Frankenstein is logging the most attempts of the Wildcat offense. Miami is averaging about five per game since its introduction and it has proved to be prolific - yielding eight of their 23 offensive touchdowns. And they are showing no signs of slowing down the game plan either. The 'Phins ran it on eight instances last week versus Seattle and six times in Sunday's defensive bout against Oakland.
Speaking of the Raiders, even with their porous offense they are able to get in on the fun and roll out the WildCat offense. After all, super-talented back Darren McFadden is no stranger to the atypical run game having executed a version of it when playing at Arkansas under head coach Houston Nutt. He and current Dallas Cowboys player Felix Jones used to make opposing defenses look clueless as they racked up hundreds of yards on the ground.
The Arkansas Razorbacks called it the WildHog in honor of their mascot. Nutt has since moved on to Ole Miss where they run a variation of the offense and have given it the moniker WildRebel.
The naming origins of this unique offensive explosion have been interesting to say the least. It is rumored that the Dolphins' labeling of the formation came from the Wildcats of West Genesee High School where Miami assistant coach Steve Bush once worked.
Last Monday against the 49ers Anquan Boldin became the first wide receiver to take a direct snap. Ken Wisenhunt and the Arizona Cardinals call this the Pahokee formation which was Boldin's hometown and high school in Florida.
Tonight we may see the Cleveland Browns bust out the Flash formation with Josh Cribbs taking the ball from center like he did last Thursday against the Broncos. Cribbs' alma mater is the Kent State Golden Flashes.
While the WildCat offense has been very productive, there have to be some problems with it or every team would use it, right? Maybe the availability and reliability of a skill player who can handle a snap and read a defense quickly poses a hindrance for some teams.
Or in the case of a wide receiver taking the snap, maybe some teams don't want their franchise player getting blown up by guys like Ray Lewis. I realize that Anquan Boldin is a big, physical receiver but he is not invincible. And what about the quarterback being used downfield as a blocker? You can bet defenses will be licking their chops to take a shot.
But there is no doubt teams are taking notice and are doing some experimenting. I don't have the luxury of the Elias Sports Bureau at my fingertips to check the stats but from my count a total of nine teams (Buccaneers, Jaguars, Falcons, Cardinals, Raiders, Dolphins, Jets, Browns, 49ers) have run some form of the WildCat offense.
It seems that better defenses will prevail against it, but will some mastermind come up with a way to completely shut down the WildCat offense?
I sure hope not. I hope it sticks around forever. It makes the running game more exciting and improves the overall entertainment of the game.
Scott Cooley offers his perspective as freelance writer and friend of 3Daily Winners.
NFL Sunday Betting Options
An awesome 3-0 college football betting Saturday and 4-0 if you used Wednesday’s trend play on Alabama as an Under selection. Let’s try and follow this up with another great day, starting with a NFL System that is 12-1 the last few years and back that up with a perfect Trend. Slick Rick was 4-0 in college football yesterday and has it 13 in a row in amateur football, we’ll let him take a swing at the NFL today. Good Luck.
Free Football System-1) PLAY ON road favorites who are good rushing team averaging 125-150 YPG against an average rushing defense who allows 95-125 YPG after the halfway point of the season. Since 2006, this system is 12-1 ATS, 92.3 percent; with the average margin of victory a whopping 12.1 points. Who would be this outstanding play today, none other than the Tennessee Titans.
Free Football Trend -2) The Denver Broncos are 0-12 ATS after gaining six or more yards a play in their previous game over the last two seasons.
Free Football Selection -3) Slick Rick is riding Tampa Bay as his best play.
Yesterday in this very spot it was mentioned about a system being followed in playing totals. For the week in college football ended up 3-1 and is 60.7 percent for the season. The same system is available in the NFL and is 9-2-1 on the year. Just one play, Cincinnati and Under today.
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Free Football System-1) PLAY ON road favorites who are good rushing team averaging 125-150 YPG against an average rushing defense who allows 95-125 YPG after the halfway point of the season. Since 2006, this system is 12-1 ATS, 92.3 percent; with the average margin of victory a whopping 12.1 points. Who would be this outstanding play today, none other than the Tennessee Titans.
Free Football Trend -2) The Denver Broncos are 0-12 ATS after gaining six or more yards a play in their previous game over the last two seasons.
Free Football Selection -3) Slick Rick is riding Tampa Bay as his best play.
Yesterday in this very spot it was mentioned about a system being followed in playing totals. For the week in college football ended up 3-1 and is 60.7 percent for the season. The same system is available in the NFL and is 9-2-1 on the year. Just one play, Cincinnati and Under today.
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Football Line Moves and Bonus Betting Info
For the Early Line Moves, we seek out the earliest lines and compare them on late Tuesday nights numbers to see what the so-called Line Movers do. Last week in college football these plays were solid 5-3-1 on the sides and 5-6 in college totals. This makes season record 50-33-1, 60.2 percent on sides and 37-29, 56 percent on Totals in CFB. In the NFL, it was not good with 0-1 mark on sides bringing the record to 12-10, 54.5 percent. On the Totals they were just as bad at 0-2. making the updated figure 17-13-1, 56.6 percent. Enjoy reading and closely follow these numbers for wagering portfolio.
College Sides
Ball State -15.5 to -18.5 Lost
Iowa -14 to -16
Colo. State +2.5 to Pick
S. Miss Pick to -2.5
Oregon -4 to -6
Ohio State -7.5 to -9.5
UTEP -9 to -12.5
LSU -18 to -16
College Totals
CMU/NIU 48 to 51 Winner
N.D./Navy 48.5 to 51
Tex.A&M/Baylor 64 to 62
AZ/Oreg. 64 to 61
S.J. St/Nevada 56.5 to 53
Neb/K-State 74 to 71
SMU/UTEP 75.5 to 71
NFL Sides
Atlanta -4.5 to 6
NFL Totals
Phil/Cin 43 to 45
NO/KC 47.5 to 49.5
Minn/TB 41.5 to 38.5
Dall/Wash 46 to 43
I’m not a big college football Totals player, but have been tracking a system this year that is 44-30, 59.4 percent. Here are today’s plays to follow or do as you wish. (Had the CMU/NIU game Over, not included in these numbers)
UNC/ Maryland OVER
UAB/Tulane OVER
Rutgers/USF OVER
College Sides
Ball State -15.5 to -18.5 Lost
Iowa -14 to -16
Colo. State +2.5 to Pick
S. Miss Pick to -2.5
Oregon -4 to -6
Ohio State -7.5 to -9.5
UTEP -9 to -12.5
LSU -18 to -16
College Totals
CMU/NIU 48 to 51 Winner
N.D./Navy 48.5 to 51
Tex.A&M/Baylor 64 to 62
AZ/Oreg. 64 to 61
S.J. St/Nevada 56.5 to 53
Neb/K-State 74 to 71
SMU/UTEP 75.5 to 71
NFL Sides
Atlanta -4.5 to 6
NFL Totals
Phil/Cin 43 to 45
NO/KC 47.5 to 49.5
Minn/TB 41.5 to 38.5
Dall/Wash 46 to 43
I’m not a big college football Totals player, but have been tracking a system this year that is 44-30, 59.4 percent. Here are today’s plays to follow or do as you wish. (Had the CMU/NIU game Over, not included in these numbers)
UNC/ Maryland OVER
UAB/Tulane OVER
Rutgers/USF OVER
College Football Game Writeups
The old Florida football coach returns for a second trip to many of his greatest triumphs. Steve Spurrier arrives in Gainesville with a ranked South Carolina club, trying to defeat what many consider the best team in the country today. Ohio State was thought to be that team by many in August; instead they are seeking revenge at Illinois. The ACC continues to try to solve convoluted mess with North Carolina and Maryland winner staying in contention. Texas still has hopes to win the Big 12 South and can’t slip up on the road against risky Kansas club. Oregon State still has the inside track to win the Pac-10 and go to Rose Bowl for the first since 1965 and has to defeat Cal at home to keep advancing.To read the complete article, click here.
College Football Wagering Stuff
A 1-2 Friday, as San Antonio dug deep and pulled out a win over Houston. Started right for college basketball bettors with Penn State coming thru in the first official play of the season. We have an awfully good System Play for Saturday that is 87.1 percent. Today’s Top Trend is a continuation of what a certain Bulldog does, being quite overrated. Good Luck.
Free Football System-1) – PLAY ON favorites of 21.5 to 31 points in conference games, after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival. The Florida Gators fit this mold for this system that is 27-4 ATS, 87.1 percent, including 4-0 this season.
Free Football Trend -2) Fresno State is 1-14 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three seasons.
Free Football Selection -3) Slick Rick has nailed his last nine college football plays including his HUGE play on Buffalo two nights ago. Though his wager won't be that big, his favorite play today is Texas.
Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.
Free Football System-1) – PLAY ON favorites of 21.5 to 31 points in conference games, after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival. The Florida Gators fit this mold for this system that is 27-4 ATS, 87.1 percent, including 4-0 this season.
Free Football Trend -2) Fresno State is 1-14 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three seasons.
Free Football Selection -3) Slick Rick has nailed his last nine college football plays including his HUGE play on Buffalo two nights ago. Though his wager won't be that big, his favorite play today is Texas.
Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.
Get Your Friday Betting Groove On
An excellent bounce back Thursday with 3-1 record. We do feel bad for the Left Coast Connection member who had the Miami Hurricanes, but that’s gambling. With college basketball starting in earnest tonight, thought we’d throw out the best System available tonight, which has been 90 percent the last two years. We have a peculiar Top Trend to follow in the NBA and it’s never lost. Free Play ready. Good Luck.
Free Basketball System-1) - Play On favorites of 10 or more points like Penn State, who were marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49 percent of their games, with four starters returning from last season. This system is 30-8 ATS, 78.9 percent and 9-1 the last two years.
Free Basketball Trend -2) The Charlotte Bobcats are 0-13 ATS versus crummy 3-point shooting teams making 30 percent or less of their attempts.
Free Basketball Selection -3) Five members of the LLC are backing the Houston Rockets tonight.
Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.
Free Basketball System-1) - Play On favorites of 10 or more points like Penn State, who were marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49 percent of their games, with four starters returning from last season. This system is 30-8 ATS, 78.9 percent and 9-1 the last two years.
Free Basketball Trend -2) The Charlotte Bobcats are 0-13 ATS versus crummy 3-point shooting teams making 30 percent or less of their attempts.
Free Basketball Selection -3) Five members of the LLC are backing the Houston Rockets tonight.
Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.
Lots of Thursday Wagering Action
We’ve stumbled the last few days collectively, including 0-2 yesterday. It’s time to pick ourselves up and dust off and find some winners. Today’s we have TWO Free Plays each coming from LLC members who are going deep. The Top Trend is from the Keystone State on the ice. The Best System going is in the NFL and is 22-4 84.6 percent. Good Luck.
Free Football System-1) PLAY ON any team revenging a home loss against opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60 to 75 percent) in the second half of the season. This is easy to comprehend system is 22-4 ATS, 84.6 percent. The revenge-minded team has won by almost six points a game. Oh yea, the team is the Jets, Jets, Jets.
Free Hockey Trend -2) The Pittsburgh Penguins are 11-1 at home against Philadelphia in last dozen meetings.
Free Football Selections -3) Two members of the Left Coast Connection are making HUGE wagers tonight. One backing Buffalo with the points and the other Miami-FL. Hope it works out for them.
Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.
Free Football System-1) PLAY ON any team revenging a home loss against opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60 to 75 percent) in the second half of the season. This is easy to comprehend system is 22-4 ATS, 84.6 percent. The revenge-minded team has won by almost six points a game. Oh yea, the team is the Jets, Jets, Jets.
Free Hockey Trend -2) The Pittsburgh Penguins are 11-1 at home against Philadelphia in last dozen meetings.
Free Football Selections -3) Two members of the Left Coast Connection are making HUGE wagers tonight. One backing Buffalo with the points and the other Miami-FL. Hope it works out for them.
Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.
Jets and Patroits Thursday Night Struggle
First place in the AFC East is up for grabs Thursday night when the New York Jets and New England Patriots renew one of the emerging rivalries in the NFL. Both teams are 6-3 and fans and sports bettors have more storylines to follow than As the World Turns. New England would have what amounts to a two-game lead in the tiebreaker, giving them the edge with six games left. New York would have a lesser advantage, nevertheless, both teams have similar schedules the rest of the way and the Jets have one more home game than the Patriots.The Jets(5-4 ATS) had a historic first half against St. Louis last week, scoring on each of their seven possessions to build a 40-point lead, en route to a 47-3 victory. Their defense forced four turnovers, returning one for a touchdown, and kicker Jay Feely hit field goals of 22, 49, 46 and 55 yards. Feely had 17 points a week after getting 14 in a win at Buffalo, and running back Thomas Jones totaled 149 yards and scored three times.
With most of their starters rested in the fourth quarter, the Jets shouldn’t have any issues dealing with the short work week. Perhaps it’ll help them snap a longstanding funk against New England, which has captured 11 of the last 12 meetings, including a 2006 playoff game and a 19-10 decision in Week 2 of this season. New York is 11-2 ATS as road underdog off a double digit cover against and opponent who is won and covered last week.
Coach Eric Mangini has become obsessed with wanting to beat his former mentor. Since signing with the Jets, Bill Belichick turned his back on Mangini, basically disregarding him as a person for going to division foe. Mangini was taken aback by most insiders and has made it his personal mission to win the AFC East and stick it to his former boss. Since beating the Patriots in New England 17-14 two seasons ago, Mangini and the Flyboys have lost four in a row, getting no closer than nine points. New York is 1-7 ATS after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game.
The Patriots (5-4 ATS) come off an impressive 20-10 victory over the free-falling Bills. Running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who began the season fourth on the depth chart, had 105 yards and one touchdown as head coach Belichick’s offense continues to find a suitable ball carrier. Quarterback Matt Cassel (23 of 34, 234 yards) ran an efficient offense that soaked up more than 37 minutes of clock, and the defense held Buffalo without a touchdown until inside of two minutes. That win raised the Pats record to 11-3 ATS after two or more consecutive wins against the spread.
The Cassel vs. Brett Favre matchup is good stuff. This is why the Jets acquired Favre for games just like this. They want his veteran leadership and savvy to make it through the rough spots. Favre however, has regressed in terms of playing under control this season with 12 interceptions. The New England coaching staff has learned Cassel is much more effective throwing the short ball and has adjusted their offense to match his talents, getting the ball to Wes Welker and Randy Moss more efficiently. The Patriots are 10-1 ATS off a win and cover, having gone Under the total two games in a row and playing division opponent.
Bookmaker.com has New England as three-point favorite with total of 41.5. The host team is just 2-16 ATS in these meetings.
New England is facing a much more confident Jones and Brett Favre than it did Sept. 14. Jones has seven touchdowns in the last five games, and Favre has hit on 33 of his last 47 pass attempts with only one interception. New York has the No. 5 rushing defense in the NFL (76.4 yards per game), thanks to Kris Jenkins being stout in the middle of the 3-4 defense and withstanding constant double-teams at the point of attack. The Patriots have won recently with massive time-of-possession advantages that won't be possible against the Jets if they can't run. The Jets have covered five of their last seven road games.
The Patriots are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 tilts following a win. They will need to confuse Favre into mistakes and have Cassel continue to manage the game and provide ball protection.
The NFL Network will once again broadcast this Thursday night showcase starting at 8:15 Eastern.
The Odds of Winning the BCS Championship
With just four weeks left in the college football regular season, it’s time to sit down and conclude who has the best chance to win the BCS trophy and more importantly for college football bettors, who is the best team to wager on. The question has come my way, why make a wager now on who could be national champions. Let me think, how many of you threw away futures tickets on say Georgia, Ohio State, LSU, Missouri and (clearing throat for comedic affect) Clemson.Oh I’m sure some of you took long shots on Alabama or Texas before the season started, but what the heck, it’s much easier to win when the field is narrowed down. For all you that took Clemson and play 10-team parlays on a regular basis, the true idea behind sports betting is to win, not hope you win.
Penn State went from the odds-on favorite last week to essentially out of the picture with upset loss to Iowa. Check these teams out.
Florida Gators (9-5 odds)
Urban Meyer’s team is situated as the odds on favorite to be BCS champions again. They will be favored against South Carolina at home and have no reason to look ahead playing The Citadel next week (can anyone explain why). The usual end of the season battle with Florida State won’t be quite as easy as the last few years; however Tim Tebow should find a way to beat the Seminoles. The matchup with Alabama will be very interesting. The Crimson Tide has the athletic skills to play with Florida and is more physical. Meyer won’t have a coaching edge in this meeting, in fact might have somebody his superior. Alabama is more disciplined, especially in the big games. If the Gators survive, they would be a favorite against any other championship contender except USC. Consider the lower odds a fair bet.
Alabama Crimson Tide (5-2 odds)
The Crimson Tide has one the most important intangibles many recent champions have had. Since 2000, three different coaches have won a national championship in their second season coaching at that university. This means they walked into a good situation with talented players who needed direction and added more by their recruiting efforts. In fact, every coach except Mack Brown has won the title within the first four years with the school in the last eight years, which includes Nick Saban at LSU. Today, coaches have to get talented players on the field right away, to maximize their time, as the cream of the crop heads to the NFL draft board once eligible. Though Mississippi State and Auburn have been tussles in the past, playing at home should make winning a foregone conclusion for Bama. To beat Florida in SEC title game, Alabama will have to have same steely resolve they have had in every big game. They have the ability to make Florida one-dimensional and can control the clock. If they move past them, the Tide is three-point favorite or more against anybody not named USC.
Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-1 odds)
Texas Tech is in control of their own destiny ranked number two in the BCS standings after beating Texas and Oklahoma State in back to back games. The Red Raiders offense has proven to be all but unstoppable as quarterback Graham Harrell has the inside trck on standing at the podium at the New York Downtown Athletic Club in mid-December. The Texas Tech offense places so much pressure on opposing defenses figuring out best way to stop them. This ways heavy on the minds of the other team’s offense once the Red Raiders score, as they feel compelled to match scores and press, not playing with fluidity they normally would. Skeptics have to be impressed with what Mike Leach’s club has accomplished; however want to see them play the same way on the road, which they do on Nov. 22 at Oklahoma. If they survive the trip to Norman, they have Baylor at home, followed by Big 12 championship, in which they would be a double digit favorite. With the remaining contenders, Texas Tech would be an underdog against any SEC team or USC, though the number keeps shrinking with each victory.
Oklahoma Sooners (9-2 odds)
This has the appearance of a poor wager at this time, with Oklahoma needing a lot of help. Oklahoma can steer its path to a degree, still being able to play Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. If they win out and all the other Big 12 South contenders remain victorious, watch out. According to Big 12 rules, the first four tiebreakers will not be enough to declare a winner. The fifth rule becomes the most important; the team with the highest BCS ranking is declared the winner. Think about that for a second. (That’s a completely different article) Like all the teams in contention in the Big 12 South, the Sooners would be a double digit favorite against whoever comes out of the North Division.
If they managed to get all the way to the title game, Bob Stoops team would be an underdog to whoever came out of the SEC, in large part to a faulty defense that has given up a bundle of points against the better offenses in the Big 12.
USC Trojans (5-1 odds)
Head coach Pete Carroll is frustrated with the BCS and on point he is correct. He knows he very likely has one the best teams in college football that was asleep for a half at Oregon State and groggy for another 15 minutes in various parts. A playoff would settle any doubts, however that won’t happen this year or in the foreseeable future with too much money coming to easily. USC needs Florida State to beat Florida, the Gators to defeat Alabama, the Big 12 North champion to beat what would be a one or two loss team out of the Big South. If all that happened and the Trojans win out, they would meet somebody for the national championship game and would be at least a field goal if not more favorite.
Oddsmakers love USC and would make them a favorite against any team in the country, except maybe the Tennessee Titans and New York Giants.
Texas Longhorns (4-1 odds)
Like the rest of the teams, Texas needs help. Winning out the regular season won’t be problem with Kansas and Texas A&M, needing Texas Tech to slip up twice is. The loss at Lubbock has been discussed way out of context in the state of Texas considering whom the Horns had to play. Complaints of the Longhorns not being ready to play were foolish, having to play that many strong teams consecutively. Only Notre Dame in 1943 has been able to defeat a top-12 squad four weeks in a row. The Longhorns remain in the hunt, but have lost control of their destiny.
Utah (100-1 field bet) and Boise State (200-1)
The odds of either of these teams making it to the BCS championship are somewhat better than the Conference USA champion earning a BCS at-large berth, but not a lot better.
Betting Thoughts and Great Hockey System
Really thought we had a winner with Charlotte Bobcats last night with our system play, rats, (OK a little too old school but I have a reputation to keep up) which gave us a 1-2 day. We have another fantastic Hockey System running tonight that is 23-2 since 1997. Today’s Top Trend is not relevant to today, but keep in your back pocket for betting college football on Saturday. Jason gave out nice upset winner in the NBA and is invited back to do so again today. Good Luck.
I have the updated figures at the monitors we belong to. As stated Monday, we are #1 at Free Sports Monitor in the NFL. We are #3 in the NFL at The Sports Eye and #6 in college football. We would be higher ranked in both sports at Cappers Watchdog, but they use the 1-5 unit measure and these plays are placed the same way we would bet on them. Many others us max five all the time, we have chosen to be consistent with our values. However, we are #6 at Cappers Watchdog in the NHL with every play two units.
Very curious about tonight’s Central Michigan and Northern Illinois game and here’s why. The average score of an NIU game is 42.9 points and 38.7 PPG at home. In conference games the average is 42.5 PPG. CMU has averaged 56.2 PPG and 61.4 on the road. In MAC action they have averaged 52.4 PPG. Because of how good NIU plays defense, I believe the conference numbers are more useful for both teams. If my thinking is correct, is the oddsmaker telling us the 49.5 total favors the underdog Chippewas being a potentially higher scoring game? Think my logic is correct? Let me know your thoughts.
Free Hockey System-1) PLAY ON home Favorites of -200 or less like the Vancouver Canucks against the money line off a home win where they shut out their opponent against opponent off a close home win by one goal. This NHL system rocks with 23-2 mark, 92 percent the last 11 seasons.
Free Football Trend -2) The Central Michigan and Northern Illinois contest both have really good trends supporting both sides. The NBA angles are fairly pedestrian, thus will turn to college football this Saturday where the #1 Alabama Crimson Tide are 11-1 UNDER in home games after five or more consecutive straight up wins.
Free Selection -3) Jason of the Left Coast Connection is playing New Orleans Hornets as his Best Bet in the NBA.
Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.
I have the updated figures at the monitors we belong to. As stated Monday, we are #1 at Free Sports Monitor in the NFL. We are #3 in the NFL at The Sports Eye and #6 in college football. We would be higher ranked in both sports at Cappers Watchdog, but they use the 1-5 unit measure and these plays are placed the same way we would bet on them. Many others us max five all the time, we have chosen to be consistent with our values. However, we are #6 at Cappers Watchdog in the NHL with every play two units.
Very curious about tonight’s Central Michigan and Northern Illinois game and here’s why. The average score of an NIU game is 42.9 points and 38.7 PPG at home. In conference games the average is 42.5 PPG. CMU has averaged 56.2 PPG and 61.4 on the road. In MAC action they have averaged 52.4 PPG. Because of how good NIU plays defense, I believe the conference numbers are more useful for both teams. If my thinking is correct, is the oddsmaker telling us the 49.5 total favors the underdog Chippewas being a potentially higher scoring game? Think my logic is correct? Let me know your thoughts.
Free Hockey System-1) PLAY ON home Favorites of -200 or less like the Vancouver Canucks against the money line off a home win where they shut out their opponent against opponent off a close home win by one goal. This NHL system rocks with 23-2 mark, 92 percent the last 11 seasons.
Free Football Trend -2) The Central Michigan and Northern Illinois contest both have really good trends supporting both sides. The NBA angles are fairly pedestrian, thus will turn to college football this Saturday where the #1 Alabama Crimson Tide are 11-1 UNDER in home games after five or more consecutive straight up wins.
Free Selection -3) Jason of the Left Coast Connection is playing New Orleans Hornets as his Best Bet in the NBA.
Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.
Looking in Rearview Mirror Betting College Football
One of the great things about being a college football sports bettor, you can live in the present and look towards the future. This week the BCS talk is running rampant, borderline Michael Douglas in “Falling Down”, with too many angry types speculating about everything that is wrong with the BCS system. It is far from a perfect system, but the drama is incredible.Think about how watered-down the Texas Tech at Oklahoma upcoming game would be if both teams already new they were in an eight-team postseason. The Penn State loss at Iowa, no problem guys, shake it off, beat Michigan State and we’re still playing for the national championship. This is do-or-die drama, especially late in the season; it could hardly be more fun.
Those of us who wager on college football can join in on these borderline unhealthy discussions with more knowledge than your average fan, since we cover the entire scope of college football. We might have our favorite teams or know more about a certain conference depending on our proximity; however we are much more informed, even as our personal opinions differ. Just like the coach preaches, we play’em one week at a time and let somebody else worry about what might happen.
Texas Tech was extremely impressive against Oklahoma State. The Cowboys needed two more players on defense to either create a pass rush to stop quarterback Graham Harrell or more help in the secondary. After awhile it was like watching Gary Busey on Celebrity Rehab, you just felt sorry for Okie State. What is most impressive is the play the Red Raiders are getting on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Harrell could have worn a dress suit and gone out to eat after the game, with nary a wrinkle with the protection he received. Though the defense is unheralded, they make enough of a mess to spoil the other team’s offensive flow. In a league where the offense overflows more than Pamela Anderson, the best way to measure the Texas Tech defense is points allowed in their last three games.
Kansas averages 34.5 PPG – scored 21 vs Texas Tech
Texas averages 44.3 PPG – scored 33 vs Texas Tech
Oklahoma State averages 42.8 PPG – scored 20 vs. Texas Tech
The Red Raiders are the first team since Oklahoma in 1984 to defeat a number one team and beat a Top 10 club the following week.
You think the Rose Bowl and wagering outlets were worried about Ohio State- USC rematch; they might have a bigger conundrum on their hands. If Penn State and Oregon State win out, they are set for rematch in Pasadena from Sept.6, when the Nittany Lions pulverized the Beavers 45-14 in Happy Valley. You can bet the West Coast crowd is praying Oregon State loses, setting up JoPa against Pete Carroll. Have to hand it to coach Mike Riley and Oregon State as they are peeking again late in the season. As noted in the Platinum Sheet, they have won a won a minimum of three of last five games of the regular season all but once in the last nine seasons.
For the first time ever, the Mid-American Conference beat their Midwestern heavyweight neighbor four times. Not really sure if that points to the MAC being improved in 2008 or that the Big 10 (11) is brutal. Here’s one other little known fact this season about these two conferences, the MAC was 4-9 straight up, yet covered 10 of 13 meetings. HUMMMM
Nice to see Charley Weis of Notre Dame come to the rescue of suddenly inept offense after being shutout by Boston College 17-0. That’s the second posted zero in last 14 games for the offensive genius. He made it clear that he had nothing to do with being blanked directly and will try to resurrect the offense against defensive powerhouses Navy and Syracuse. His true genius will be shown when his team finishes the season at USC. I never bought into this 9-3 or 10-2 business Beano Cook or others were selling, thinking 7-5 seemed about right. Until Weis can start bringing in offensive and defensive linemen that have ability and bad intentions, there won’t be much fight in the Irish.
This past week was a bad week to be a big home favorite or a home team catching points. Double digit home chalk was 5-9-2 against the spread last week, making them 23-39-3 ATS the last month. After posting positive numbers a week ago, home underdogs returned to sorry ways with 5-11 ATS figure. They are 32-58-3 ATS the last five weeks.
Quick notes- Do you think the Oklahoma Sooners offense is peaking? In their last three games they have averaged 47.3 points per game, in the first half!
If you think the Big 12 South is a confusing mess, try the ACC. Every team in the conference has two losses, meaning tie-breakers deluxe are a possibility to determine who plays in the conference championship game. Not surprisingly with this kind of balance, ACC home teams are 18-13 and 15-16 ATS. Also, home underdogs at 5-2 against the spread should make perfect sense this season.
Most preseason magazines had Iowa in the bottom half of the Big 10 standings. Based on their schedule and defense, believed they would finish fourth in the conference. Coach Kirk Ferentz has his team positioned to finish strong after Penn State upset and their four losses have been by a total of 12 points. The Hawkeyes are younger, which could mean even better days ahead for the honest and glib Ferentz.
In the SEC, Florida is showing they just might be not only the best team in the conference, but in the country the way they are playing. On the other hard, Tennessee coaches are to blame, but the Volunteers players should embarrassed for how they played in losing to Wyoming 13-7 as 27-point home favorites. Departing Phil Fulmer deserves to be criticized for letting program slip, but the guys in the orange jerseys are culpable also for not beating a team that has been outscored by the top four teams in the Mountain West Conference 161-13.
The Texas A&M defense is slower than an express checkout lane as the grocery store.
West Virginia is stuck with Bill Stewart as coach and the program will sink. My guess is the Pittsburgh at Cincinnati Big East conflict on Nov.22 will decide who wins the BCS berth, other games not withstanding.
Tuesday November 11, Wagering Action
The Miami Heat was cooled off last night, winning but failing to cover and Orlando was defeated outright at home. We have a thought-provoking NBA System today that favors a home underdog on a couple of levels. The Utah Jazz have started the season in fine fashion, will it continue in Philadelphia, check out today’s Top Trend. Good Luck.
A salute to all Veterans on what has become a lost holiday.
Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home teams vs. the money line like Charlotte who are a weak offensive team (88-92 PPG) against a fair defensive team like Denver (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 175 points or less. This money line system is 28-7, 80 percent. What is really intriguing about this system is the home underdog and the current payout is +155 on the Bobcats if they win. Otherwise appears to be a pretty fair wager catching the points.
Free Basketball Trend -2) The Utah Jazz are 3-13 ATS in road games after playing five consecutive games as favorite over the last three seasons.
Free Basketball Selection -3) Jason of the LLC prefers the Atlanta Hawks to upset Chicago on the road.
A salute to all Veterans on what has become a lost holiday.
Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home teams vs. the money line like Charlotte who are a weak offensive team (88-92 PPG) against a fair defensive team like Denver (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 175 points or less. This money line system is 28-7, 80 percent. What is really intriguing about this system is the home underdog and the current payout is +155 on the Bobcats if they win. Otherwise appears to be a pretty fair wager catching the points.
Free Basketball Trend -2) The Utah Jazz are 3-13 ATS in road games after playing five consecutive games as favorite over the last three seasons.
Free Basketball Selection -3) Jason of the LLC prefers the Atlanta Hawks to upset Chicago on the road.
A New Week of Wagering Action
3Daily Winners nailed all three winners yesterday in the NFL and are proud to be #1 at Free Sports Monitor in the NFL, with a couple of other monitors updating their stats later this week. Today’s Top Trend is in the NBA and takes a look-see on how Orlando has played this month over the last few years. Though not an official System Play by our standards, a pretty solid 77.8 percent system to consider also in the NBA. Good Luck.
Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Boston Celtics, who are making four or less 3-point shots a game on the season in November. This system is 35-10 ATS, 77.8 percent and is 1-0 to start the year.
Free Basketball Trend -2) The Orlando Magic are 17-4 ATS in November the last few seasons.
Free Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection consensus is close to even on tonight's Monday night game, but yesterday's winner Sal and three others like the Miami Heat in the NBA.
Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.
Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Boston Celtics, who are making four or less 3-point shots a game on the season in November. This system is 35-10 ATS, 77.8 percent and is 1-0 to start the year.
Free Basketball Trend -2) The Orlando Magic are 17-4 ATS in November the last few seasons.
Free Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection consensus is close to even on tonight's Monday night game, but yesterday's winner Sal and three others like the Miami Heat in the NBA.
Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.
The Cardinals are Big Chalk on Monday Night Football
If the Cardinals don’t find a way to win the NFC West this year, they never will. Since the move from St. Louis to Arizona in 1988, the franchise has suffered a losing record in 17 of 20 seasons, but not last year when the Cardinals closed with back-to-back wins to finish 8-8. Sun Devil Stadium didn’t offer much in terms of home-field advantage during the Cardinals’ first 18 years in the desert, but their new state-of-the-art venue in Glendale seems to have changed that parameter for the better with a 9-2 and 8-3 spread record since its opening.Arizona has done some serious home cooking with five straight wins (4-1 ATS), beating Miami, Buffalo and Dallas so far this season by a combined 102-51.
Bookmaker.com has established the division leading Redbirds as 10-point home favorites (down from opening 11), with a total of 47.5. The Cards are flushed with new-found success and have to take the next step in overcoming the past with 0-7 ATS record as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points.
With San Francisco in town on Monday night, the Cardinals will take the University of Phoenix Stadium field for the first time in a month. The last time they were home they made NFL history, beating the Cowboys 30-24 in overtime on a recovered blocked punt in the end zone. Arizona had a bye the following week, lost 27-23 in Carolina in Week 8 and won 34-13 in St. Louis last Sunday.
A postseason berth is the goal for the Cardinals, who had to face only two returning playoff teams over their first nine games. They lead the NFC West by three games over each of their three rivals, none of which seems capable of a turnaround.
The 49ers are 2-6 SU and ATS, and making headlines for all the wrong reasons. San Francisco, which lost 23-13 at home to Arizona in Week 1 thanks to five turnovers, became a league spectacle two weeks ago when interim head coach Mike Singletary sent Vernon Davis to the locker room after the third quarter of a 34-13 loss to Seattle, blasted the third-year tight end in the post-game press conference and apologized to fans. The next day, Singletary benched quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan in favor of Shaun Hill. The Niners will come into this AFC West encounter only 5-14 ATS against conference opponents over the last two seasons.
Hill led the 49ers to a pair of victories late last season and had the benefit of a bye week to help get ready for Arizona, which has allowed 218.2 yards passing per game (18th overall) and 16 touchdowns—most in the NFL. Hill looked relatively sharp in relief of O’Sullivan against the Seahawks and completed 15 of 23 attempts for 173 yards and one touchdown with no interceptions. This will be his first career start on the road for a squad that is 6-15 ATS as an underdog over the last two years.
San Francisco covers if they do what they do best, run the ball. Frank Gore is still their best weapon; make him the top priority is establish a pace to the game, which should help Hill in the short passing game. Hill has shown the ability in his limited action to read and get rid of the ball, something O’Sullivan was getting worse at each week taking so many sacks. Defensively, San Fran needs an identity; pick one, 3-4 or 4-3 scheme. Lastly, get Vernon Davis the ball, otherwise he becomes a distraction by not touching the ball as the team and media views it as a rift. The 49ers must control the clock and score. Otherwise they fall to 0-8 ATS vs. good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points a game since 2006.
Arizona covers if they are focused. Being so far ahead in the division despite having a lack of organizational success for decades, this is the kind of game the Cardinals can prove before a national audience they should be taken seriously. The easiest way to beat a beleaguered opponent is to jump on them early, this should figure into Arizona’s game plan. This should also be a contest the Cards can get back to fundamentals by tackling better, something that been a problem all season. Kurt Warner and company averages 387 yards of offense, if they can do just a little better, they’ll take care of the Niners who are 3-16 ATS in road games when they allow 400 or more total yards.
This week’s Monday Night system is to play against any underdog who has allowed 24 or more points in two straight games. This system is 25-11-1 ATS, 69.4 percent.
NFL Sunday Best Wagering Options
A so-so 2-2 Saturday, but a profitable 4-3 week in college football overall. Today we have a NFL System that supports a super-sized underdog, which is 22-3, 88 percent. The Top Trend takes us to the Windy City, literally I hear, for Da Bears and Da Titans. Sal from the Left Coast Connection is back and doing well and has his Best Bet for Free. Good Luck.
Free Football System-1) PLAY ON road teams after one or more consecutive wins against the spread, who are a terrible team, winning 25 percent or less of their games, in the second half of the season. This system is 22-3 ATS, 88 percent and it doesn’t take a genius to figure out this team is Kansas City.
Free Football Trend -2) The Chicago Bears are 2-14 ATS after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games.
Free Football Selection -3) We haven’t heard much from Sal of the LCC lately and he is one 12-5 run in the NFL and is playing Atlanta Falcons today as his personal best bet.
Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.
Free Football System-1) PLAY ON road teams after one or more consecutive wins against the spread, who are a terrible team, winning 25 percent or less of their games, in the second half of the season. This system is 22-3 ATS, 88 percent and it doesn’t take a genius to figure out this team is Kansas City.
Free Football Trend -2) The Chicago Bears are 2-14 ATS after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games.
Free Football Selection -3) We haven’t heard much from Sal of the LCC lately and he is one 12-5 run in the NFL and is playing Atlanta Falcons today as his personal best bet.
Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.
NFL Quarterback Carousel
Round and round, up and down.So goes the beloved amusement park pastime and so goes the quarterback carousel in the National Football League.
The scenario that has played out in 2008 could not have been predicted by anyone and has the signs of becoming even more complex. This is about as crazy of a game of musical quarterbacks as I've seen in my brief sportslife.
Through nine weeks of the season we’ve witnessed 46 different signal callers under center for 32 teams. There have been six permanent quarterback changes due to performance or injury and after this week, only half of the teams will still be playing with the same QB they started the season with.
You might be able to point the blame of this quarterback chaos to Kansas City Chiefs safety Bernard Pollard. He sparked this uncontrollable downward spiral after rolling into Tom Brady’s knee, effectively ending his year (and my fantasy football season) in the first quarter of Week 1.
And now Matt Cassel, who never started a game in college and was probably a better baseball prospect than football player, is attempting to lead the New England Patriots back to the Super Bowl where perfection narrowly escaped the dynasty a season ago.
The QB changes are many I have to use extreme brevity in this recap because you would grow tired of scrolling through the pages if I delved deep into the intricacies of each alteration.
I'm going to spare elaborating on teams like the Chiefs who have had 16 different quarterbacks (okay, maybe just three) and the Lions who also have a new QB, but still haven’t won a game even with the departure of the evil Matt Millen.
I won't even begin to mention how the Tennessee Titans made the right move by benching youngster Vince Young, whose commitment to football is questionable at this point, and opting for wily veteran Kerry Collins.
Vikings head man Brad Childress must have stolen a play from the Jeff Fisher quarterback school of thought as Minnesota also elected to resurrect a has-been from the brink of extinction in Gus Ferrotte, opposed to enduring another learning season from inexperienced gunslinger Tavaris Jackson.
And who could forget the Brian Griese experiment? He did throw for 407 yards after winging the ball 67 times in a win at Chicago but subsequently lost his starting job two games later to Jeff Garcia.
If I haven’t lost you already, strap into those saddles and stirrups because this ride is about to get rowdy.
The merry-go-round continues with the NFC West, which has experienced complete quarterback disarray. All four teams have encountered some form of QB controversy at one point this season. Trent “I Have A Concussion” Green got a sympathy start from the Rams former head coach Scott Linehan but current coach Jim Haslett has since reverted back to old ways with Marc Bulger at the helm.
The Seahawks went 1-3 with Matt “Bad Back” Hasselbeck to begin the season and are 1-3 without him since. That team has been decimated by injuries all over the field and you can’t expect Seneca Wallace to guide Seattle to a fifth consecutive division title. Hasselbeck is expected to return in Week 11.
How about the laughable San Francisco 49ers? They drop 24 million on a #1 overall pick in Alex Smith who has turned out to be about as good as Ryan Leaf. So they opt to go with offensive coordinator Martz’s man who came to the Bay from Detroit. But that guinea pig failed as J.T. O’Sullivan helped them to a 2-6 record and as soon as Mike Singletary replaced Nolan as the head coach, found himself standing on the sidelines. This week, Shaun Hill is preparing himself to be the most recent 49ers quarterback failure.
I have the perfect remedy for the Niners. They need to put Michael Robinson, former Penn State QB, and Frank Gore in the backfield and run the Wildcat formation every down. You even have Arnaz Battle, who was a thrower back in his days with the Irish, to set up the triple Wildcat backfield! What defense wouldn’t be confused with all the reverses, pitches, handoffs and an occasional toss to Vernon Davis?
The final portion of this NFC West shakedown involves the division leader in a pre-season QB change. Question remains, will Matt Leinhart ever live up to the expectations bestowed upon him?
Ken Wisenhunt surely isn’t sold on him as being the future of his Arizona Cardinals club. He has had three seasons to take the starting job that has essentially been shoved to him on a silver platter. But Arena Football League star turned Super Bowl MVP Kurt Warner has claimed the top spot season after season.
And Warner is ready to retire at the drop of a dime. He threw a bad pass to Anquan Boldin who got his jaw shattered and felt bad so he wanted to quit. How bad do you have to be to not snatch the starting job away from a guy who doesn’t even really want to play anymore?
I guess if you have Reggie Bush, LenDale White, Dwayne Jarrett and Steve Smith you really don’t have to be that good to win ballgames. And maybe he wasn’t, perhaps we should ask the 2005 National Champion Texas Longhorns.
Speaking of USC Heisman Trophy winners, this should have been the year that Carson Palmer was talked about in the same breath as Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Brett Favre. But that may never happen.
Palmer put together a stellar season in 2005 and showed glimpses of greatness, but ever since that knee injury has been nothing but disappointing. Now he needs Tommy John surgery? Isn’t that a surgical procedure for baseball players? Regardless, Ryan Fitzpatrick is slinging it around in Cincy and that should hint to someone that the team needs a complete overhaul.
So the Houston Texans finally found their man huh? Snatched Matt Schaub away from the Falcons, just before the Vickster gets indicted on dog fighting charges, to replace David Carr. Who I have to say was the beneficiary of a good college team and system…ahem…Alex Smith.
But now Schaub is out 2-4 weeks with a sprained MCL and “Pinch of Sage” Rosenfels will get a second opportunity to prove his worth. He suited up against the Colts in Week 5 and nearly had a stranglehold on the starting gig but threw a pick-six and fumbled away two balls to allow Indy to overcome a 17-point fourth quarter deficit.
Our pinkie finger is probably the most expendable appendage we have. But to Tony Romo and the Cowboys it is worth its weight in gold. Seriously though, a pinkie? I pick my nose with my pinkie finger, and that’s about all it is good for. You should be able to throw a football with a bum pinkie.
No matter, the ‘Boys are 1-2 without their savior and his second coming may be too late. They sit at the bottom of the NFC East standings with a 5-4 record and have a brutal schedule left after their bye week, starting with a date in Washington against the ‘Skins.
The most recent changing of the guard happened in our first NFL Network Thursday night matchup. Four-year pro Derek Anderson might have splintered his booty squirming around on the bench having to watch pretty-boy Brady Quinn get the nod after starting 23 straight contests.
Anderson just hadn’t appeared to have been able to put up to the lofty numbers he did a season ago (29 TDs, 3700+ yards), but maybe if Braylon Edwards could catch a pass or Kellen Winslow actually tried to run a route he could have kept his job.
And I’m sure his uneasiness didn’t subside after the kid went 23-35 with 239 yards and a couple of touchies. Well, at least Kellen Winslow was still dropping passes and fumbling balls. That guy needs to take a seat in the corner and put on the dunce hat or he is about to REALLY start pissing some people off.
There looks to be another QB swap on the horizon as well, but most likely a temporary one. We never heard the end of “Rex is our quarterback” from Chicago coach Lovie Smith in 2007. And then Da Bears roll into 2008 with the “Kyle is our quarterback” campaign plastered all over the walls.
This worked out pretty well until Orton went down with a high ankle sprain last weekend. And now we will get to see how disgusting Grossman can look against the mighty Titans defense. He was able to mount a comeback in last week’s game, throwing for a score and running in another, but this test won’t be against the hapless Detroit Lions.
As long as quarterbacks in the NFL keep underachieving and getting injured, we’ll keep pumping tokens into this carousel.
Scott Cooley is a free-lance writer and chimes in from time to time at 3Daily Winners.
College Football Game Writeups
The college football landscape is dotted with landmines this week. Alabama takes its number one ranking to Baton Rouge, with LSU lying in wait to ruin their unblemished record. Texas Tech is second in the BCS standings, but might have an even tougher opponent in Oklahoma State this week. Penn State got passed by in the rankings last week and has what could be their last chance to lose in the regular season traveling to Iowa City. All USC can do is wallop Pac-10 teams and hope those higher than them happen to lose, as they host California this week. In the ACC, anything is possible and Virginia and Wake Forest play in an elimination game. The All lines shown are from Bookmaker.com.Oklahoma State at Texas Tech
After last week’s spine-tingling upset of number one Texas, its right back into the Big 12 grinder for Texas Tech. Red Raiders quarterback Graham Harrell had trouble being noticed nationally until last week, playing in a conference stocked with quality throwers. What makes this Texas Tech team better is the little things that go unnoticed. Running back Shannon Woods is an effective runner, but where he helps his team as much if not more is picking up blitzes to keep Harrell upright and give him that split second longer to deliver the pigskin. Click here to continue.
Early Football Line Moves
For the Early Line Moves, we seek out the earliest lines and compare them on late Tuesday nights numbers to see what the so-called Line Movers do. Last week in college football these plays were ordinary 3-3 on the sides and 3-5 in college totals. This makes season record 45-30-2, 60 percent on sides and 32-23, 58.1 percent on Totals in CFB. In the NFL, they were 1-0 on sides bringing the record to 12-9, 57.1 percent. On the Totals they were quality 2-1 (11-3-1 the last month) making the updated figure 17-11-1, 60.7 percent. Enjoy reading and closely follow these numbers for wagering portfolio.
College Sides
TCU +1 to -2 Lost
Nevada +2 to -1 Winner
Duke -5.5 to -3.5
South Carolina -11 to -13
Boise State -31.5 to -34
Oklahoma -25 to -27.5
Nebraska +2 to -1
Texas -24 to -27
USC -18.5 to -21
College Totals
Pur/Mich St. 49 to 50
Illini/W. Mich 63 to 60
N.C. State/Duke 47 to 49
OK St./TT 73.5 to 69
Army/Rice 61 to 58
ISU/Colo 53 to 50
K-State/Misso 74 to 70
Kan/Neb 69 to 64
OSU/UCLA 52.5 to 49
Bay/Tex 66 to 62.5
Ark St/FIU 51 to 48
NFL Sides
Balt -2 to Pick
NFL Totals
GB/Minn 48 to 46
NYG/Phil 45 to 43.5
College Sides
TCU +1 to -2 Lost
Nevada +2 to -1 Winner
Duke -5.5 to -3.5
South Carolina -11 to -13
Boise State -31.5 to -34
Oklahoma -25 to -27.5
Nebraska +2 to -1
Texas -24 to -27
USC -18.5 to -21
College Totals
Pur/Mich St. 49 to 50
Illini/W. Mich 63 to 60
N.C. State/Duke 47 to 49
OK St./TT 73.5 to 69
Army/Rice 61 to 58
ISU/Colo 53 to 50
K-State/Misso 74 to 70
Kan/Neb 69 to 64
OSU/UCLA 52.5 to 49
Bay/Tex 66 to 62.5
Ark St/FIU 51 to 48
NFL Sides
Balt -2 to Pick
NFL Totals
GB/Minn 48 to 46
NYG/Phil 45 to 43.5
College Football Wagering Answers
Nice job by the Left Coast Connection with two Free Winners on Friday with Nevada and Atlanta Hawks. Greg of the LLC has hit seven straight winners in college football, he has four plays riding today and gives us his best Bet. A pair of plays out of one College Football System that is 26-2, 92.9 percent. We revisit a Top Trend we used earlier this season, which is still 100 percent accurate. Good Luck.
Free Football System-1) PLAY ON home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points off a road win, when playing on a Saturday. This incredible system is 26-2 ATS (not a typo) 92.9 percent, including 2-0 this season. The qualifying teams are Kentucky and Northwestern.
Free Football Trend -2) Oklahoma State is 13-0 ATS after scoring 50 points or more last game.
Free Football Selection -3) Greg has hit seven college football games in a row and is using South Carolina as his best play for Saturday.
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Free Football System-1) PLAY ON home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points off a road win, when playing on a Saturday. This incredible system is 26-2 ATS (not a typo) 92.9 percent, including 2-0 this season. The qualifying teams are Kentucky and Northwestern.
Free Football Trend -2) Oklahoma State is 13-0 ATS after scoring 50 points or more last game.
Free Football Selection -3) Greg has hit seven college football games in a row and is using South Carolina as his best play for Saturday.
Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.
Thursday's Top Wagering Information
Officially a 1-2 day, though certain many of you got a push with San Antonio unless you wagered about 2.5 hours or less before game time. The Top System was a winner and delves into the latter season NFL games on Thursday night with an 82.3 percent system. Had never seen so many Left Coast Connection players be so wrong on a game like NIU/Ball State (count me among the fools) we’ll see what they have to offer. Today’s Top Trend has a dandy in the world of hockey. Good Luck.
Free Football System-1) PLAY ON favorites like the Cleveland Browns that off a home loss, in weeks 10 through 13. This system is 14-3 ATS, 82.3 percent the last three years, with average margin of victory 8.8 points a game.
Free Hockey Trend -2) The Vancouver Canucks are 11-1 against the money line off a win by four or more goals.
Free Football Selection 3) – Greg of the LLC was the only guy from the group on Ball State last night and is playing Utah tonight. His logic consists of taking the pointspread and making it a neutral field matchup. Last night, the line showed him Ball State would have been 6.5 point favorite on a neutral field by the line (-9.5 minus 3 for home field = -6.5) and he had them as nine points better, plus the home field. Tonight using the same logic, Utah has a four point home advantage, meaning TCU is six points better than Utah (take away home field and add two points for spread) and he has TCU only three points better and Utah has home field edge.
Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.
Free Football System-1) PLAY ON favorites like the Cleveland Browns that off a home loss, in weeks 10 through 13. This system is 14-3 ATS, 82.3 percent the last three years, with average margin of victory 8.8 points a game.
Free Hockey Trend -2) The Vancouver Canucks are 11-1 against the money line off a win by four or more goals.
Free Football Selection 3) – Greg of the LLC was the only guy from the group on Ball State last night and is playing Utah tonight. His logic consists of taking the pointspread and making it a neutral field matchup. Last night, the line showed him Ball State would have been 6.5 point favorite on a neutral field by the line (-9.5 minus 3 for home field = -6.5) and he had them as nine points better, plus the home field. Tonight using the same logic, Utah has a four point home advantage, meaning TCU is six points better than Utah (take away home field and add two points for spread) and he has TCU only three points better and Utah has home field edge.
Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.
Mountain West Big Betting Matchup
Both Mountain West front-runners TCU and Utah are off treacherous road games and meet in one what is the biggest game to date in the conference. This is Act Two in what is supposed to be a trilogy; however a bunch of Horned Frogs could turn Act 3 into dinner theater at Holiday Inn at Salt Lake City. A whole group of Utes will have something to say about this, seeing they are the team that has come to this point unscathed and should be ornerier than a Utah ski resort owner waiting for the first snow fall, being a home underdog in this meaningful matchup.Utah (9-0, 4-4 ATS) sneaked by New Mexico 13-10 as 7.5-point favorites, in spite of a -2 turnover margin. The Utes has been guided all season by the steadiness of senior quarterback Brian Johnson, as he has led Utah to better than 400 yards total offense and kept mistakes to a minimum. His ability to stay away from those momentum-changing plays will be critical in showdowns against TCU (9-1, 7-2 ATS) tonight and BYU later in the month. Two big differences this year compared to the last few for coach Kyle Whittingham. Wide receiver David Reed has given Utah a speed element it has lacked, that element seems to have opened up the rest of the offensive attack. When he's in the game, defenses have to pay attention. This year’s defense has been ranked in the Top 10 in yards allowed almost all season and has given up just 266.2 yards per game. Utah is 6-0 ATS in home games in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.
The Texas Christian defense is the one of best in the country. They are second behind USC in total defense, allowing 214.5 yards per game. The Horned Frogs are third in the nation in points allowed (10.8 per game) and in seven different games they have allowed seven points or less and only in three games has the opposition managed to score two or more touchdowns. They are a wrecking crew (with apologies to Texas A&M) against the run, holding the opposition to 38.9 net rushing yards and 1.4 yards per attempt, easily both the best in the FBS football.
TCU is 14-4 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in two straight games.
Offensively, the Horned Frogs continue to improve, led by quarterback Andy Dalton. Some believed their assignment at UNLV might be a challenge, however the rubbed-out the Rebels 44-14. TCU has long been noted for its prowess rushing the ball and this season is no different at over 224 yards rushing a game. Dalton has found a receiver he really works well with in Jimmy Young. With the team flat against Wyoming recently and not running the ball well, Dalton and Young connected five times for a school-record 226 yards and three touchdowns to propel TCU to victory. They are 11-3 ATS after out-gaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game.
Bookmaker.com has TCU as two-point favorite, up from opening number of -1, with total of 43. As the Horned Frogs proved against BYU, they will have a huge speed advantage. Their defense has blazing athlete’s at all 11 positions and their defensive front in ferocious in rushing the passer. Utah is only average in pass blocking, which could lead to big problems against a team that is 9-0 ATS off two wins against Mountain West rivals.
It would not be wise to sell Utah short. They have won 10 in a row dating back to last season and 17 of 18. They have won nine in a row (5-3 ATS) at Rice-Eccles Stadium and TCU coach Gary Patterson understands how good Utah is. “You always want to play in the big arena,” Patterson said. “Utah is a good football team - lot better at home. We’ve got a lot of work to do. We have to get everyone healed up and ready to go.” The Horned Frogs are just 4-8-1 ATS in November road games.
Utah is 4-1 SU and ATS versus TCU and has the home field advantage. Don’t expect many points unless there are several turnovers, since these teams have only combined for 39 points per game in their meetings. If the game is close the Utes have edge with kicker Louie Sakoda.
CBS College Sports has the broadcasting rights to this contest which starts at 8 Eastern. Utah is 11-3, but just 7-6 ATS on weekdays games since 2003; however are home underdog for just the third time in a decade and are 3-0 ATS.
Looking in Rearview Mirror Betting the NFL
The Buffalo Bills have lost three of their last four games and only covered two of last six contests. Opening the season 4-0 is looking a lot less impressive, considering the four victims were Seattle, Jacksonville, Oakland and St. Louis. The NFL has few secrets and teams have to adjust quickly once figured out. Opponents have determined the best way to stifle Bills offense. The Bills had a number of big plays with receiver Lee Evans, however defenses have started double-teaming him, focus on stopping the running game on early downs and man up on short passing game. Until the Buffalo coaching staff finds ways to adjust, hard to back the Bills.East of Dallas, their might not be a more disappointing team in football than Jacksonville. This was supposed to be breakout season. The Jaguars are believed to be a physical running team, yet are 17th in rushing and 19th in stopping the run. They reached rock bottom is losing to Cincinnati last week as Cedric (Evinrude) Benson rushed for 104 yards, that’s right boat boy got a hundred plus. Jacksonville spent a lot of money on upgrading secondary, it hasn’t worked and the Jaguars are going nowhere in the AFC South.
Watching Dallas get whacked by the Giants, the thought occurred Brad Johnson should have retired at halftime. Tony Romo is far from the only problem with the Cowboys, as the offensive line is playing horrible considering the talent. Dallas is 3-11 ATS since last December and counting.
Looking at the schedule from opponent’s ability, Detroit has a shot at 0-16. Though it is unlikely to happen, they will be an underdog by a minimum of three points in any given game the rest of the year. The Lions have covered three of last four and will play five home games the rest of the way.
The Oakland Raiders, what a sorry franchise. Al Davis spent all kinds of money overpaying for free agents and since another season is being flushed, now he’s going to dump some of them so not to have to pay scheduled bonuses in the off-season. He’s like the guy in the commercial who buys the painting and wants to turn around and sell it. Lane Kiffen at least left with his sanity. Al, it’s time to step away, you are legend in the AFL and NFL, turn the reigns over and let somebody rebuild this team to when Pride and Poise actually meant something.
Quick Outs- Brady Quinn gets to start in Cleveland; will it matter if your best receiver keeps dropping touchdown passes?
The Baltimore defense was supposed to be great again, but rookies Joe Flacco and Ray Rice are two of the big reasons for the Ravens being 6-2 and 5-3 against the spread. Wonders never cease in the NFL.
By the end of Week 10, the Arizona Cardinals could have as big a divisional lead as the Tennessee Titans. Based on the past, Arizona is about as safe a bet as a 10-team parlay, yet the competition is so meager, they almost but can’t help but win the NFC West. The Cardinals still have to make two trips back East to Philadelphia and New England, however earning the number two position in the NFC is not out of the range of possibilities. As has been stated here several times this season, given time, Kurt Warner is still a Top 5 quarterback in the NFL.
With the current state of the Denver Broncos, is a 3-5 San Diego squad in the best position to win the AFC West?
I used to follow this all the time and started again. Take the top and bottom four teams in scoring average in each conference. When any two teams of the higher scoring teams play each other, play OVER and when the lower scoring teams play one another play UNDER. I let each team have somewhat of a track record, thus started with week five. The year to date record is 7-2 against the total.
Touchdown favorites in the NFL continue to be a lousy wager with a 14-16 ATS record and home underdogs are even worse at 15-21 against the spread.
Late Season Betting on Ranked Teams
The other day had a conversation with a close friend and we were talking about the good old days. Among the topics of discussion were our gambling exploits from years ago. We laughed talking about all the cash we made just following certain teams late in the year. It seemed (the years make the memories fuzzy) no matter if we having a bad year, a great year or just ordinary in progress, we always cashed big late in the season.Tennessee was a team we made a mint on, since they were always peaking at the end of the season and played several weak teams in those days to close the year, often covering the bookie’s number by two touchdowns or more. Florida State in their prime under Bobby Bowden was another, more in their Independent days and the early years of being a member of the ACC.
Their were other gift spots we knew about, like playing against Notre Dame no matter how good they were (that’s been awhile) in the last home game or a number of Georgia/Georgia Tech and South Carolina/ Clemson games when the home team it seemed never covered.
After laughing ourselves silly thinking about how he once gave a guy 54-points and Kansas (if memory serves correct) against Oklahoma, with the Sooners covering 62-7 for a few Ben Franklin’s, our discussion turned to betting on ranked teams late in the season. He believed ranked teams were good at home and bad on the road.
His rationale was as long as a team was of quality to be highly ranked late in the season; they should be a good bet at 21 or fewer points. Any pointspread above 21 the team has to be playing extremely well or the opponent so bad, the favorite can’t help but win and be very close to covering the number.
Ranked teams on the road were dicier, starting with the fact they’re favored about 80 percent of the time. A home underdog can make their season late in the year with an upset. These can be very dangerous opponents, especially ones that have the ability to score points, since they can feed off the momentum of the crowd and often play over their heads. Additionally he noted, the coaches and players of ranked teams on the road are probably still playing for some conference positioning and will get tight if pushed by lesser foe.
All this talked about ranked teams late in the year, led to research to determine answers. Here are the three questions that were formulated to be answered.
1) How do ranked teams perform in the last three games of the regular season?
2) How do ranked teams perform at home?
3) How do ranked teams perform on the road?
The answers were to be determined both straight up and seeing this is tip sheet is information driven for sports bettors, how the teams do against the spread.
The answer to the first question was slightly surprising on a couple of points. Of the 293 games played by ranked teams over the last five years (2003-07) in the last three weeks of the season, the Top 25 teams are 224-69, 76.4 percent. What was mildly surprising was my preconceived notion these schools actually won more frequently, closer to 80 percent. When thinking about it more, the number made more sense, as like anyone; you tend to think about the top end, not the bottom. Any team ranked #18-25, likely has a couple of losses or plays in a weaker conference and is more vulnerable to being defeated.
One aspect that did not catch me off-guard was the spread record of these teams. Of the 293 games, the actual record was 148-135-10 against the spread, a 52.2 percent mark, which would cause bettors to have betting accounting accounts similar to many people’s 401K plans, less than what you started with.
Let’s move along to question two, how do ranked teams play at home. This is where the numbers kind of get weird, not in a bad way, just peculiar. Home teams were 135-39 straight up 77.5 percent, almost the same percentage as the overall number, meaning ranked teams played almost the same home or away late in the year.
My friend was accurate in his belief that the elite teams in the country are a good bet at home with a 95-73-6 ATS record, good for 56.5 percent. Among the leaders carrying the torch for this group is USC at 9-0 and 7-2 ATS, Louisville at 5-0 and 4-1 ATS and Boise State at 4-0 SU and against the spread as home favorites the last five years.
I was somewhat stunned ranked teams were so good on the road at 89-30, 74.7 percent. However, when digging into the spread number, the real truth came out. With rare exception, Top 25 teams when listed as road favorites ended up being 52-62-5 ATS, a rather lousy percentage of 45.6 percent, particularly when you consider these teams won nearly three out of four games. As my pal so accurately described, ranked teams have something to play for and might be more conservative, compared to home team underdogs that can play all out with nary a reason to hold anything back.
In doing the research, two other questions came to mind. What is the outcome when both teams are ranked and does it matter if one team has a higher ranking?
The first question offered a staggering result in my opinion. When two highly ranked squads are facing off late in the year, the presumption is the home team has the edge. From a wagering perspective, the road team might offer more value since the two teams are probably fairly close in talent as most positions, at least that would be the traditional method of thinking. Here, either the more focused or relaxed visitor won 21 of 38 games played and covered the spread an astonishing 60 percent of the time at 21-14-3 ATS.
Taking it one step further, how does a higher ranked team do, no matter where the contest is held? Though most Top 25 ratings of any kind are believed superficial, they do mean a great deal to those seeking to add money to wagering accounts. The higher ranked school is 25-13 overall with an almost matching 24-13-1 against the spread record. That is good for a delectable 64.8 winning percentage. This seems contrary to the previous question, but does point out the differences in the two teams. Place two similar teams by ability on the field, each with the same motivation and willingness to perform at peak performance, the better team is without question the better wager.
In conclusion, a wise old goat like my friend has been through enough battles to understand what happens late in the year. Playing visitors when two teams are in the Top 25 is smarter than a 6th grader and forget Warren Buffet and others trying to figure out unstable stock market, buy higher ranked teams when matched versus other ranked clubs to really make money.
Three Betting Options for Wednesday
Thanks to everyone for commenting about keeping hockey plays here at 3Daily Winners. I would encourage everyone to comment as often as you like, seeing this is a blog and your voice should be heard. (in good taste of course)
Paul Buck had a great call on Dallas last night in our only play and the Left Coast Connection feels very strongly about a play in college football tonight. The San Antonio Spurs might have been losers last night, will in continue, read the Top Trend. Found a very good System in the NBA concerning Oklahoma City which is 25-4, 86.2 percent. Does Okie City feel like an expansion team to you too? Has that same weird feeling like when Charlotte moved to New Orleans.
Good Luck.
Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points Oklahoma City in non-conference games, off a close home win by three points or less. This system is 25-4, 86.2 percent the last five years.
Free Basketball Trend -2) The San Antonio Spurs are 22-6 ATS after three straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers the last 12 years.
Free Football Selection 3) – The Left Coast Connection has 14 bettors on Northern Illinois and one on Ball State.
Paul Buck had a great call on Dallas last night in our only play and the Left Coast Connection feels very strongly about a play in college football tonight. The San Antonio Spurs might have been losers last night, will in continue, read the Top Trend. Found a very good System in the NBA concerning Oklahoma City which is 25-4, 86.2 percent. Does Okie City feel like an expansion team to you too? Has that same weird feeling like when Charlotte moved to New Orleans.
Good Luck.
Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points Oklahoma City in non-conference games, off a close home win by three points or less. This system is 25-4, 86.2 percent the last five years.
Free Basketball Trend -2) The San Antonio Spurs are 22-6 ATS after three straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers the last 12 years.
Free Football Selection 3) – The Left Coast Connection has 14 bettors on Northern Illinois and one on Ball State.
Need Your Opinion and other Stuff
We need your opinion. For those reading this do you want to see any hockey systems, trends or free plays? The NHL is not widely bet and even though there is often some really good material, if you don’t care, no point in having it here. Click on the "comment" below to respond.
The Top Trend Winner was the only official play for Monday, as the Clippers played as expected. I’m not a big parlay player but have had pretty good success this year blending money line plays with spread bets I really like. I limit it to three or four teams and though the payout isn’t as good as straight parlay (using spread bets) the odds are more in your favor and last I heard winning isn’t bad. I should note this is mostly in college football. Here are is an exceptional system for this upcoming weekend, yielding two plays. With nothing that great in the NBA tonight, the Top Trend looks at the Rice Owls total for this next Saturday. Good Luck.
Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST road teams vs. the money line, having lost 6 or 7 out of their last eight games against opponent after having won 6 or 7 out of their last eight games. The qualifying play against teams would be Purdue and Michigan for a system that is, drum-roll, 38-1. Holy, you know, crap.
Free Football Trend -2) Rice is 17-3 OVER in all lined games over the last two years and 9-0 OVER after allowing 42 or more points.
Free Hoops Selection 3) – Paul Buck is playing Dallas tonight in the NBA. Among the reasons are the underdog is 14-2 ATS when the Mavs meet San Antonio.
The Top Trend Winner was the only official play for Monday, as the Clippers played as expected. I’m not a big parlay player but have had pretty good success this year blending money line plays with spread bets I really like. I limit it to three or four teams and though the payout isn’t as good as straight parlay (using spread bets) the odds are more in your favor and last I heard winning isn’t bad. I should note this is mostly in college football. Here are is an exceptional system for this upcoming weekend, yielding two plays. With nothing that great in the NBA tonight, the Top Trend looks at the Rice Owls total for this next Saturday. Good Luck.
Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST road teams vs. the money line, having lost 6 or 7 out of their last eight games against opponent after having won 6 or 7 out of their last eight games. The qualifying play against teams would be Purdue and Michigan for a system that is, drum-roll, 38-1. Holy, you know, crap.
Free Football Trend -2) Rice is 17-3 OVER in all lined games over the last two years and 9-0 OVER after allowing 42 or more points.
Free Hoops Selection 3) – Paul Buck is playing Dallas tonight in the NBA. Among the reasons are the underdog is 14-2 ATS when the Mavs meet San Antonio.
Betting Material for Monday
It was a mixed bag of sorts for 3Daily Winners with a 1-2 day in the NFL Sunday and 2-3 record on the week. We ended up with four of five Winners in college football and a good week overall totaling everything up. Spoke to Kendall last night, he’s lost his best play two weeks in a row here, but keeps on winning in the NFL. He ended up 3-1, with winners on Green Bay, Cincinnati and New England, losing with the Browns. He’s still hard to comprehend 31-7. Though not an official play, we offer up a 78 percent system for Monday night. Our Top Trend is pure perfection in the NBA. Good Luck.
Free Football System-1) PLAY ON teams like Washington that have gone five consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers against opponent like Pittsburgh after a game where they committed three or more turnovers are 32-9 ATS, 78 percent.
Free Basketball Trend -2) The L.A. (they’ll cut themselves with their own) Clippers are 0-11 ATS revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more over the last three seasons.
Free Football Selection -3) Very interesting dynamic going tonight. The Left Coast Connection has 21 members playing tonight's Monday Night game, 13 on Washington and 8 on Pittsburgh. What makes this thought provoking is 10 of the 13 are making money betting in the NFL this season. Six of the 8 who are on the Steelers are losing money at present wagering in the NFL. Like I said, interesting.
Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.
Free Football System-1) PLAY ON teams like Washington that have gone five consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers against opponent like Pittsburgh after a game where they committed three or more turnovers are 32-9 ATS, 78 percent.
Free Basketball Trend -2) The L.A. (they’ll cut themselves with their own) Clippers are 0-11 ATS revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more over the last three seasons.
Free Football Selection -3) Very interesting dynamic going tonight. The Left Coast Connection has 21 members playing tonight's Monday Night game, 13 on Washington and 8 on Pittsburgh. What makes this thought provoking is 10 of the 13 are making money betting in the NFL this season. Six of the 8 who are on the Steelers are losing money at present wagering in the NFL. Like I said, interesting.
Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.
Monday Night Matchup - Steelers at Redskins
Washington has passed most of their previous tests, save for a final-second loss at home to the Rams in Week 6. But looking at St. Louis these days maybe that defeat isn't as bad as it originally looked. The Redskins steamrolled hapless-and still winless-Detroit, 25-17, and remains just behind the Giants in the NFC East.Maybe owner Daniel Snyder was onto something when he hired head coach Jim Zorn despite no prior experience as a front man. It helps having the NFL's leading rusher, Clinton Portis, who added 126 yards to his total (944) against the Lions, in the same huddle. Rather than the wide-open spaces he's become accustomed to in Zorn's West Coast offense, Portis may have to take more of a bullish approach against Pittsburgh who is 33-18 ATS versus offensive teams averaging 5.65 or more yards a play.
The Steelers, ranked No. 2 in the NFL against the run (71.6 yards per game, three touchdowns), have allowed just three runners in the past 73 games to crack 100 yards. Portis has rushed for more than 120 yards in five-straight games and averages 5.0 yards per carry; opposing backs are rushing for 2.9 YPC vs. Pittsburgh. Washington is 28-12 ATS versus good rushing defenses allowing 90 or less rushing yards a game, including 2-0 against the spread this season.
Jason Campbell did complete 23 of 28 attempts for 328 yards against the Lions but can expect plenty more pressure in Pittsburgh. Much like the Giants did in Week 1, the Steelers are expected to bring the heat from all angles, and may be better at it than even the defending champs. Campbell has just three turnovers (all fumbles), but all have come within the last three games. Washington is 6-15-2 ATS after passing for more than 250 yards.
Campbell's counterpart, Ben Roethlisberger, hasn't yet clicked in offensive coordinator Bruce Arian's system and may have turned in his worst performance yet in a 21-14 loss to the Giants. He threw just one touchdown and four interceptions and absorbed five sacks. At least two of the sacks were because Roethlisberger held the ball too long, something the coaches are trying to get him to change. The Steelers 7-3 ATS off a loss.
Running back Willie Parker missed a fourth consecutive game with a knee injury, but Mewelde Moore, at one point the third-stringer, continues to prove his value and the running hasn’t fallen off as much as expected. Parker might be ready for this encounter.
Bookmaker.com has Washington as a 2.5-point choice with a total of 36.5. Pittsburgh is 17-6 UNDER in road games off an upset loss as a favorite and the Skins are 21-9 UNDER after out-gaining opposition by 150 or more total yards in their previous game.
Pittsburgh covers if they stop Portis, which they well could do since they held the Giants to just over half their average last week. The Steelers have to get after Campbell and force him to make bad choices and create turnovers. Pittsburgh’s special teams have been solid all, year, contain Washington and they improve to 28-10 ATS playing against teams with 75 win percentage or higher.
Washington covers if they can prevent the Pittsburgh linebackers from blitzing Campbell silly. The Redskins defense has only forced eight turnovers on the year, Big Ben will present opportunities, and they must cash in and create shorter fields for the offense. Attack the Steelers guards on defense, since this is the area where they have has the most problems in pass protection. Start trouble in the middle and safeties could have free shots at Roethlisberger. Pitt is 3-7 ATS on the road at teams with winning records.
No pertinent system for Monday night, however teams like Washington that have gone five consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers against opponent like Pittsburgh after a game where they committed three or more turnovers are 32-9 ATS, 78 percent.
Free Sunday Selections at 3Daily Winners
A nice 2-1 day here for Saturday, with winners on Colorado State and Texas A&M. For NFL action, we have some excellent numbers today like today’s Top System this is scintillating 94.1 percent. If you are impressed with that number try perfect 8-0 for the Top Trend. Kendall from the Left Coast Connection is 28-6, 82.6 percent in the NFL and is the best investment anywhere these days and offers his top play for Free. Good Luck.
Free Football System-1) PLAY ON any home team that scored 24 or more points before going on its bye week and lost the game. This system is incredible 16-1, 94.1 percent and has Minnesota today, as they lost 48-41 to Chicago two weeks ago.
Free Football Trend -2) The Indianapolis Colts are 8-0 ATS after two or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last three seasons.
Free Football Selection -3) Kendall did lose last week in this space however will get a free pass here this week seeing he is eye-popping 28-6 in the NFL this season. He’s backing Cleveland to cover today.
Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.
Free Football System-1) PLAY ON any home team that scored 24 or more points before going on its bye week and lost the game. This system is incredible 16-1, 94.1 percent and has Minnesota today, as they lost 48-41 to Chicago two weeks ago.
Free Football Trend -2) The Indianapolis Colts are 8-0 ATS after two or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last three seasons.
Free Football Selection -3) Kendall did lose last week in this space however will get a free pass here this week seeing he is eye-popping 28-6 in the NFL this season. He’s backing Cleveland to cover today.
Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.
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