Double-Digit NBA Pointspreads and Lots More

I love handicapping and betting the NBA as well as enjoy reading articles and books about the same. I continuously read or talk to people that say there is no way to beat the NBA on a regular basis. I understand why they feel that way. It can be very frustrating to watch a team blow a 20-point second-half lead or an elite team lose outright to a cellar-dweller. If you are going to bet the NBA, you first have to realize those type of games are going to happen. The NBA is the most situational sport to handicap bar none. There are games with teams that have no rest versus teams with two or three days rest. There are teams that have a non-conference game in between two divisional games. If you just handicap NBA games based on fundamentals, I believe you are missing the big picture and will have a very difficult time in winning on a consistent basis.

There are as many different thoughts and ideas on how to handicap the NBA as there are people that bet it. As I did last year, this season I will again write about betting myths, handicapping fallacies, and other pertinent points involving betting the NBA. The point is to help readers understand what handicapping the NBA entails and how to make money at doing so.

I just read an article that somebody had written and put on the Internet talking about how to handicap the NBA. Their first rule was to eliminate any game with a double-digit point spread. If you would have done this last year, you would have immediately eliminated 19.6% of all regular season games, 237 games. That is one reason why I love the NBA: there is a plethora of games and they happen every single day, even Christmas and Thanksgiving. I get to pick and choose what games I bet on but the oddsmaker has to put lines and totals up for every game. In my mind, I get to cherry pick which gives me the advantage.

Saying to eliminate double-digit dogs from betting consideration caught me by surprise because there are some very good trends involving double-digit dogs that are worthy of betting. Yes, they may take some work to uncover, but isn't that is what handicapping is all about? Anybody who says to not even consider games with double-digit dogs needs to quickly re-examine their line of logic.

A great trend that I found on the StatFox FoxSheets is to bet on a road double-digit underdog when it is playing a team that has lost two of its last three games. The qualifier is the double-digit favorite has to be a team with a winning record but less than a 60% winning percentage. Over the past five years, betting on this trend, you would have a 31-9 record, 77.5%. The double-digit dog sees a vulnerable team in their opponent as they have dropped some games recently and they aren't a first-tier NBA team. The dog definitely has some bite to it. Its bite gets bigger to the tune of 16-2 ATS if the dog was playing at home in their previous game.

Let's look at some other profitable trends involving double-digit dogs. A team's rest and their opponent's rest can have a factor in the outcome of a game. Double-digit dogs over the past five years that have rest and are playing a team who played a game yesterday don't give us a trend worth betting on a side, but we do have a 60% winning wager betting on the Under. That is an easy-to-find situation that pays nicely.

There are many factors to look at in handicapping the NBA. One qualifier to take into account is the quality of the teams based on their winning percentage. If our double-digit dog is winning only 30% of less of it's games, not a very good team, and they are playing a team with a 60% or better winning percentage, the Under happens 57.1% of the time, 76-57, over the past three years. We can improve our winning percentage to 64% if both teams have played their previous game on the road.

A lot of handicappers like to bet on teams that have recently covered the spread on a better than average basis. It is best to look at very basic trends and to add different qualifiers to such teams. Let’s start with a team that is on a 3 game ATS covering streak as a double-digit dog. Again, there is nothing worthwhile in betting on the double-digit dog, just a 51.4% winner over the past five years. However, if you bet the Under in such a situation, you would be winning 63.2% of your bets. Move that winning ATS streak up to at least 4 straight games and you are cashing your Under tickets 66.7% of the time.

How about if a team has covered the point spread in at least 4 or more of their last 6 contests and now they find themselves getting 10 or more points by the linesmaker? You do have a 56.8% winning bet on the big dog, but a much better money-maker is betting the Under in such games. With that wager you have a 70.5% winner, 31-13, over the past three seasons. Yeah, I’ll take a look at double-digit dogs.

A more basic trend involving double-digit dogs is if the lined total is 180 or lower, just play the Under and you have a 73.9% winner over the past three years.

This brings me to a point that really needs to be brought up. I don't like to go back very many years when using a specific totals range as scoring in the NBA has changed over the years. A totals range in the 170's was more prevalent five years ago than it is today. In 2003, there were 279 games during the regular season with a lined total in the 170's. Last year there were only 15 games with that low of total posted by the linesmakers. Looking at the other end, lined totals of 210 to 220, there were only three in all of the 2000-01 season. Last year there were 173.

Incidentally, 55.3% of those games with that total range last year went Over.

To the people who are immediately eliminating handicapping NBA games with double-digit dogs, shame on you. You are missing some very good betting opportunities by putting blinders on.

Jim Kruger is a basketball expert and is the main man for Vegas Sports Authority.

Wagering Tips for Friday Dec. 6

A .500 day for Thursday left us thirsting for more and we’ll try and find it with a NBA system that is 82.1 percent. Also in the NBA, we follow the exploits of the Detroit Pistons who thrive this month in recent years. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home favorites after being beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games. In this case we are looking to play against Utah, who could be on the short end of system that has won 23 of 28 times the last five years.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Detroit Pistons are 17-1 ATS in December the last few years.

Free Football Selection -3) From the Left Coast Connection, we have 11 on Ball State, 4 on Buffalo and 7 on the Over in tonight MAC title game.

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Top Wagering Info for Dec. 4

Gosh we love boring here, another 2-1 day at 3Daily Winners. The big Texas vs. UCLA game tonight has a perfect angle favoring one of the combatants. We have an 88.8 percent money line NHL system riding this evening. The guy that gave us the Air Force winner in college hoops on Thursday, has two more free plays today. Good Luck.

Free Hockey System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs of +100 to +150 against the money line like New Jersey, revenging a same season loss vs opponent, well rested team - playing three or less games in 10 days like Philadelphia. This puck system is 24-3 on the money line since 2004.

Free Basketball Trend -2) UCLA is 8-0 ATS in road games off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

Free Selections -3) The same person from the Left Coast Connection that gave us the winner here yesterday is on Kent State in basketball and Rutgers in football tonight.

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Bet the Freakin' Farm on Rutgers

Earlier this year, it was suggested by several writers across the lower 48 and myself that possibly Greg Schiano, the Rutgers coach, had made a bad career move and not moved on from Rutgers after celebrated 11-2 season in 2006. As we are all aware, timing is extremely important in life. Last season was not expected to be as positive as the previous year with too many defensive players graduated, and the Scarlet Knights went to a second consecutive bowl game for the first time ever and got a pat on the head for finishing 8-5.

The warm and fuzzy feelings were dissipating for Rutgers, being predicted no better than fourth in most preseason magazines despite 15 returning starters and an experienced signal caller like Mike Teel. The season started a complete disaster, with home televised losses to Fresno State and North Carolina, followed by a loss at Navy. At 0-3 and turnover margin of -8, things were looking bleaker than the New Jersey economy.

A 38-0 win against Morgan State did not turn anyone’s head, especially after losing at West Virginia and Cincinnati, though covering the spread the last two. A gut wrenching, hard fought 12-10 win over Connecticut stemmed the negativity and changed the entire attitude of the team and the program.

After the offense went three weeks without committing a turnover, Teel and his receivers finally clicked, totaling 371 yards passing at Pittsburgh, who had been hot, and cruised to a 54-34 road upset as 9.5-point underdogs. The Knights have won their last three games by 114-36, becoming bowl eligible and can cement the invite with win tonight over Louisville (5-6, 4-6 ATS).

Once college football teams hit November, their lot is cast, oh sure the occasional upset occurs, but for the most part if you are playing well, you continue to and the same goes the other way. With Rutgers on five game winning streak, with an average margin of victory of 20 points, no team is playing better in the Big East and that might include BCS bound league champ Cincinnati. With Teel and the offense on fire, Rutgers is 10-1 ATS when they score 28 or more points over the last two seasons.

Now take a team picture of Louisville. Since upsetting what was believed to be a still good South Florida team 24-20 at home in late October (Rutgers beat USF 49-13 at there place), the Cardinals have crashed to earth with four losses in a row, committing 14 turnovers along the way. None of these defeats have been competitive either, failing to cover the spread in any of the four, making Louisville colder than a Papa John’s pizza delivered an hour late.

A few hardy contrarians will point to this is the perfect setup for Louisville to upset Rutgers, thinking another Brohm brother is still playing quarterback and this is the Cardinals from a few seasons ago. Enough bettors are going that way with the line at Bookmaker.com and other wagering outlets having dropped to 10.5 points after opening at 13, with a total of 51. The Knights are 8-1 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last three seasons.
Remember all the love defensive coordinator Ron English was receiving for keeping the Cardinals in games with the defense, 132 points and 435 yards per game later after four straight losses, the praise has turned to mumbling.

What I’m proposing in the title of the article, is to bet the farm, seeing most people don’t have farms to wager, from a legal standpoint, I’m on solid ground. With the Rutgers defense having allowed more than 17 points just once in last six games and Teel throwing laser shots to receivers Kenny Britt, Tiquan Underwood, and Tim Brown, expect coach Schiano and his team to triumph by 20 points and easily cover the spread like a fresh cover of snow on the grass.

Methods to Improve your College Hoops Handicapping

College basketball is a sport that has more variance by teams from season to season than any other. You are dealing only with five players competing at one time against another team. One player can make a huge difference in a team’s results on a straight-up basis and also in covering the point spread. If you were a NCAA hoops fan in 1988, you will remember Danny and the Miracles winning it all for the University of Kansas. Can anyone name any of Danny Manning’s teammates?

It is never too early to start looking at a team’s characteristics and tendencies in college hoops. After all, you want to get on a team or find squads to bet against as early as possible when the point spreads and totals might not be entirely in line. Many of the teams you find to bet against will not be in the same form they were last year or not living up to expectations. And, obviously, just the opposite is true when looking for teams to put on your “play on list”. You can find line value on the surprise teams that everybody else hasn’t already spotted and you can find get extra points going against the disappointing teams.

Many times when a coach leaves a program, especially after a few good years, it seems the program takes a downturn, as if the outgoing coach knew the incoming and returning talent wasn’t going to be able to keep up with the success of prior campaigns. This appears to be the situation at Wichita State with Mark Turgeon leaving the wheat fields of Kansas for the Aggies of Texas A&M last year. WSU struggled with all types of bad luck last season even though they were able to hire a fine coach, Greg Marshall, with a very good track record. As head coach of Big South Winthrop, Marshall led his team to seven NCAA Tournament appearances in nine years. That is even more impressive when you realize this is a league that gets one invitation to the Big Dance.

Marshall has taken a diverse team of newbies and covered the spread three games in a row against quality competition including Georgetown and Michigan State. This is a team that was picked in the bottom three of the Missouri Valley Conference. Marshall is an excellent teacher and I expect WSU to outperform preseason predictions. They are currently sporting a 4-0 against the spread record and a team worth watching.

UNLV is a team that was picked to win the Mountain West and finish in the Top 25. A strong recruiting class was supposed to help the three returning starters, especially in the middle where the Rebels started 6-7 Joe Darger at center last year. Five-star recruit 7-0 Beas Hamga has seen virtually zero minutes as he is the epitome of a project. UNLV is counting on 3-point shots to fall as their lack of an inside presence has hurt them. The offense revolves around star guard Wink Adams. If he is not playing up to par, UNLV is an average team at best. The Rebels are 1-4-1 ATS even though they were picked to win the Mountain West Conference. UNLV dropped two games over the weekend with Adams going 5 for 25 from the field averaging 7.5 ppg.

In determining which teams to wager on, a statistic I like to look at is the difference in offensive field goal shooting and defensive shooting percentage. I have long maintained that good shooting teams are ones you want to look at to back against the point spread. Playing good defense only makes a team tougher to beat. Wake Forest is among leaders the nation in this category along with Arizona and Utah. Stew Morrill’s teams are always tough Utah State and they lead the country in shooting percentage at 56.6 percent. These are the types of teams I will look to play on as the season progresses.

Teams that are at the other end of the spectrum are Wright State, Louisiana-Monroe, Drexel, and UC-Irvine. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that a team that doesn’t shoot well and doesn’t defend well is not a good team to bet on. These are teams I put in my “play against” file.

Another statistical area I like to examine is a teams’ turnover differential. When you have many teams only taking 57 to 63 shots per game, a discrepancy in the number of net turnovers each team has can make a difference in the outcome of the game. Teams that have a very good differential include Louisville, Houston, Davidson, West Virginia, Missouri, and Nebraska. These teams also have a 14-6 ATS mark at the time of writing this article. Protecting the rock while being able to steal it are two qualities I want in teams I back.

I am always wary of putting my money on teams that shoot an extraordinary number of three-point goals relative to their two-point field goal attempts. If hoisting shots up from downtown is a team’s main method of offense, it can be a long day if the bombs are not going down. A bad shooting night can obviously happen, especially on the road away from the comforts and familiarity of your home gym. Teams rarely get to the free throw often when they are camping out behind the three-point arc which increases the reliance of making those 3’s.

Some good examples of teams shooting a relatively high number of 3’s and a low number of free throws are Iowa State, 14th out of 344 teams on three-point attempts, 326th on free-throw attempts. Troy is 22nd in TPA’s and 340th in FTA’s, Tennessee-Martin, 42nd and 324th, and Akron, 47th and 320th. Combined, these teams have a 3-11 ATS record. These will be teams I will avoid playing on and will be on my play against list when they are on the road.

On a side note, it is still too early to determine if moving the three-point line back a foot to 20’9” will make much of a difference. Currently there is a 1.2% reduction in the percentage of 3’s being made out of the 344 Division-1 teams, 33.2% this year compared to 34.4% last year. Teams overall are cutting back just a shade on the percentage of shots from behind the arc, 33.3% of all field goal attempts this year versus 34.4% last season.

These are some basic methods to start making a play on/against directory of teams. With so many lined teams, it is wise to have some methodologies to par your respective lists down.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority contributed this article.

Wednesday Dec.3 Betting Info

It’s been awhile since I can remember losing a wager directly to the fact a player got kicked out of a game. But that’s what happened to me and several members of the Left Coast Connection with the Hurricanes going down, otherwise a steady 2-1 day at this location. The Top Trends have been quite good for weeks now and looks at a NBA team in a great situation. The Free Play is from one confident individual and today’s Top System is sweet 22-4. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY OVER on home teams like San Jose State against the total, off a close road loss by three points or less, playing with seven or more days rest. This system has rocked at 22-4, 84.6 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Orlando Magic are 16-2 ATS off a road loss.

Free Basketball Selection -3) One member of the LLC called me today and said Air Force will blow out Northern Illinois. I told him I’d post it and let the world see if he’s right.

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The Latest NFL Turkey

Last week while families gathered for fellowship and feasts during the Thanksgiving holiday, one of the biggest turkeys the NFL has to offer roasted in the headlines.

And now Commissioner Roger Goodell has Plaxico Burress to thank for his latest PR crisis.

The embattled New York Giants receiver carried a loaded gun into a Manhattan nightclub on Friday evening and accidentally shot himself in the leg. That's right, shot himself in the leg while flashing his weapon to his entourage and having a glass of wine.

Events that transpired for Burress after "the shooting" were a trip to the emergency room, a brief stay in the New York-Presbyterian Hospital and two counts of criminal possession of a weapon charged to his name.

Monday morning, the 31-year old Michigan State alum turned himself in to the authorities and was reminded of the pair of felonies incurred. Burress posted the $100,000 bail and climbed back into his jet black, chrome-rimmed Cadillac Escalade.

If Plax is anything like his NFL receiving brethren Randy Moss, he probably paid the bail with "straight cash, homey."

Hopefully Mr. Burress is lucky enough to still have a mother around and if so I really want to believe she was there to slap him on the backside of the head and scream, "What the hell are you doin' boy!"

Seriously though, how careless do you have to be to shoot yourself in the leg? And why in the world are you carrying a gun, especially without a legal permit to do so?

Protection was his reasoning. Burress claimed he was carrying large amounts of cash and was wearing expensive jewelry that evening.

He might not be aware of this phenomenon but society has embraced a monetary credit system where instead of using dollar bills to purchase items one can satisfy an outstanding balance by providing payment with a rectangular plastic card.

But that would just be too easy and plus, Plax wouldn't have the fat stack of Benjamins to throw down when buying that case of Dom Perignon.

Okay, here's another option for Mr. Burress. Why not stay in your lavish bazillion-dollar home, stock the bar with booze and have as many friends over as you want? He might even be able to afford a DJ to spin some tunes. Create that club scene in the west wing sports room that is rarely used and make it rain right there on the pool table.

And if he is really that worried about being attacked while out in public, just hire a bunch of body guards to protect you who are actually licensed to carry guns. It is that simple. Look normal, blend in and don't try to draw attention to yourself. But wait I almost forgot, he is an NFL wide receiver and that egocentric attitude is embedded into his genes.

New York's Mayor Bloomberg wants Burress prosecuted to the fullest extent, seven years behind bars. Unless this hotshot lawyer he's hired can turn water into wine, Plax could looking at the minimum of three and a half years in the slammer.

He caught the game winning touchdown in the Super Bowl to defeat the undefeated Patriots. The Giants rewarded him with a 35 million dollar contract extension with 11 million coming as a signing bonus. But you can bet Burress will be looking for another team to play for next season. This isn't the first "Plaxico being Plaxico" incident this season and head coach Tom Coughlin is a disciplinarian that has most likely reached his limit. The Giants have packed it in on Plax after Dr. Scott Rodeo, a team physician, examined Burress and told them the gunshot wound would sideline the 31-year-old player for 4-6 weeks.

Jerry Jones could be looking for his number right now.

But if Burress does somehow escape the long arm of the law, you know the Commish will be there to thwart his immediate return to the league. Plaxico isn't putting up Pacman Jones numbers but he has quickly climbed to second on Goodell's most wanted list.

Scott Cooley free lance writer shares his thoughts here at 3Daily Winners.

A Terrific Tuesday from 3Daily Winners

I had a feeling we would come back and missed by two points in the Monday night game of going 3-0. Great to see our Top System play deliver and we have another beauty in college hoops tonight at 23-5 against the spread. The LLC majority was correct last night on Houston and has unanimous selection tonight. The Top Trend peeks in on a particular NBA team in an awful situation. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON a team like Minnesota , a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against a bad defensive team like Virginia (78 or more PPG), after scoring 85 points or more in last outing. This singular system is 23-5 ATS, 82.1 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Chicago Bulls are 2-14 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection consensus the Miami Hurricanes as unanimous selection (8-0) in college hoops tonight.

ACC/Big Ten Challenge

The Big Ten jetted to 1-0 lead with Wisconsin taking down Virginia Tech 74-72 yesterday and based on the previous results of this event, they better relish it while they can. Tonight five more games will be played, with Duke at Purdue being the showcase contest. If and it is a really big if, the Big Ten wants a realistic chance to finally win The Challenge, they have to hold serve as home favorites tonight, being favored in three of the five games on their home court. All lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

Ohio State at Miami-FL (-8) ESPN 7:00E

The Hurricanes are in the group of teams right behind North Carolina and Duke, trying to make noise this season in the ACC. Miami is 4-1 (2-1 ATS), with only loss coming to second-ranked Connecticut 76-63. Guard Jack McClinton is the team’s leading scorer and catalyst from a team that welcomed back four starters and is 11-1 ATS in non-conference action.

Ohio State (3-0, 2-1 ATS) held Samford to 22 points, not for the half, but for the game. They will be tested more severely today, against what might be the best perimeter shooting team in the ACC. The Buckeyes have had to rebuild for the second straight season and have wing David Lighty and F Evan Turner to fall back on. Ohio State has another very good freshman class; however this will be their first road adventure, though in the past this has not been a problem with 14-5 ATS mark after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite.

Ohio State is 2-5 in this challenge and Miami 0-2, but the edge has to go veteran Canes at home with 10-2 ATS record after playing a home game.

Iowa at Boston College (-8) ESPNU 7:00E

Boston College (4-2, 4-1 ATS) fell behind Purdue by 19-points in New York and rallied to within seven before losing. They came from behind to beat UAB in the NIT third place game 83-77 as three-point underdogs. G Tyrese Rice is what makes these Eagles fly and B.C. is 14-4 ATS after three consecutive non-conference games.

Second year coach Frank Lickliter has thrown three freshman into the fray, seeing this as his future and thus far they have responded well with 6-1 (3-1 ATS) record, including 65-63 upset of Kansas State, despite shooting 36.4 percent. Sophomore point guard Jeff Peterson has been an early stabilizer and the Hawkeyes have shot the ball well early at 49.8 percent. Iowa doesn’t appear to be in a favorable situation, but could cover the number if they play physical with Rice like St. Louis did in holding him to six points.

Iowa, like most Big Ten teams has losing record in this event at 2-5 and Boston College is 0-2 in their previous tries.

Clemson at Illinois (-2) ESPN2 7:30E

Coach Bruce Weber's Fighting Illini take a 6-0 (3-1) record into ACC/Big Ten Challenge battle with fellow unbeaten Clemson (7-0, 2-3 ATS). Illinois has been a surprise, vanquishing Vanderbilt on the road and beating Kent State and Tulsa in San Padre Tournament. Contributions are coming from all top seven players, but the big improvement has come from PG Chester Frazier, who has astonishing 42-to-9 assist-to-turnover ratio. Illinois had one of the best home court edges for years but is only 4-12 ATS since the beginning of last season.

Clemson is a sparking 7-2 in this conference challenge and has returned seven of top 10 players from NCAA Tournament team. K.C. Rivers makes this team flow and Raymond Sykes has brought the energy to the Tigers, with Trevor Booker being a force inside. Clemson is 6-15 ATS after playing a road game over the last three seasons.

This is one of the swing games the ACC has invariably won in this Challenge and how Illinois handles the Clemson pressure defense will directly relate to the outcome.

Duke at Purdue (-2) ESPN 9:00E

Duke (7-0, 4-3 ATS) has a perfect 9-0 record in this battle between well-known conferences and they face an engaging test. The Blue Devils are still perimeter oriented, with any number of players capable of beating opponent off the dribble taking the ball to the rim. Duke is at its best when the leading scorer is to be determined in a game, whether it is Kyle Singler, Lance Thomas or Gerald Henderson. The Dukies are 14-7 after a blowout win by 20 points or more.

Purdue (5-1, 3-2 ATS) is a mere 2-5 in The Challenge, with both wins coming at home. The Boilermakers are coming off disappointing loss to Oklahoma in the NIT final, losing in overtime 87-82, in a game they led almost from start to finish. E’Twaun Moore and Robbie Hummel are the stars of Purdue; nevertheless this is a solid basketball team that plays very good defense and has answers on the offensive end. The Boilers have won 13 in a row at Mackey Arena (10-3 ATS) and are 9-1 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pick over the last three seasons.

Duke has to be considered dangerous in this position, yet Purdue is angry off a loss and rabid crowd could make it challenging on the Blue Devils.

Virginia at Minnesota (-7) ESPN2 9:30E

The first full night off ACC/Big Ten action concludes at The Barn in Minnesota. The Golden Gophers (6-0, 2-2 ATS) are a youthful bunch, having lost top three scorers from a year ago. Coach Tubby Smith made up a schedule of home games versus beatable opponents, with this being one of the more engaging encounters. Minnesota has had their share of early season injuries in the frontcourt, leaving PG Al Nolen to soldier the load. Coach Smith hopes good shooting fortune continues, being 10-0 ATS after a game where they made 60 percent of their shots or better.

Virginia (3-2, 1-1 ATS) has been sluggish to start a new campaign, due to lack of defense. Teams are shooting 47.4 percent against the Cavaliers, as coach Dave Leitao continues to tinker with his lineup, using five different combinations in five games. Hard to determine what Virginia will do off it worst performance in loss to Liberty and best effort in narrow defeat to Syracuse 73-70 as 16-point underdogs. After years of being a laughable road team (34-57 ATS as road underdogs), Virginia is 11-6 against the spread the last few seasons.

With two inexperienced squads, count this as another swing game.

Looking Ahead in Rearview Mirror in the NFL

Go ahead, I dare you to guess what the Denver Broncos season ending record will be, let alone how they will perform over the next four weeks against the spread. The 2008 Broncos seem to be a mix of Britney, Lindsey, and Paris all wrapped into one. A closer look at the team is more confounding than Mike Shanahan having a darkly tanned face in December living in Rocky Mountain country.

Denver is in first place in the AFC West, which is akin to Arizona being in the top spot in the other West division. The list of division contenders is null and void. This would take more research time than presently available, but I’m quite comfortable in saying it’s been awhile since a division leader has failed to cover a spread AT HOME (0-6, same as Detroit) this late in the season. All the more incredible when you consider those six opponents are 33-38 on the season. Of equal or possibly greater lunacy, Denver has a seven game spread losing streak this season, this is not something normally associated with good teams headed for the playoffs, no matter the division. Quarterback Jay Cutler’s up and down efforts seem to match the Broncos play and so does the sometimes brilliant and indifferent gameplans Shanahan puts together. For wagering purposes, M.C. Hammer has the best advice, “Can’t touch this”.

The San Diego Chargers are more done than bacon left in the microwave too long. The reasons are varied, but here are the nuts and bolts (slight play on words). General Manager A.J. Smith wanted to be in charge. He’s done a good job in assembling a team presumably destined for the Super Bowl. Along the way, Smith also wanted to play coach and he and Marty Shottenheimer couldn’t work together, thus he made Norv Turner, the architect of the offense, his head coach. Problem is this team was built to play Marty-ball, tough, physical and aggressive. Turner who would best described as nice guy; he doesn’t fit the A-personality type that many teams need. The Chargers have turned into a soft, finesse-styled squad under Turner and it’s no coincidence it would appear this is why they can’t close out games. Hard decisions for GM Smith in the off-season, since L.T. seems to have reached his peak and this team needs a new direction.
Just asking, did you think the Detroit Lions thought maybe their Thanksgiving game was supposed to be two-hand touch instead of tackle football?

The Indianapolis Colts have won five in a row, by a grand total of 20 points, explaining why they have covered twice in that stretch. I thought playing against the Colts was the second best bet on the board this past week, since they don’t have the look of a team that can cover many numbers. Injuries are a big reason, missing center Jeff Saturday and safety Bob Sanders for too many games. I’d like to throw out the idea that all the fast, light (weight-wise) players Tony Dungy prefers, breakdown quicker being undersized, having given or taken too many hits. Call it an observation, not an indictment and worth consideration.

There is no doubt the best team in the NFL is the New York football Giants and I’m amazed at one subtle difference that has happened over the last few years. Coach Tom Coughlin, now in his fifth season, had a locker room filled with outspoken players and wild antics his first three years. Jeremy Shockey, Michael Strahan and Tiki Barber were all worth a few quotes each week and not always to the positive of the team. As the leaders, they didn’t like his rules and Coughlin always ended up defending many of his actions both on an off the field. Is it a coincidence, after Barber leaves, Strahan quiets down and Shockey gets injured and the Giants roll to Super Bowl win? Is it more striking that even with Plaxico Burress doing everything to be a distraction, a group of committed football players are more like their coach and are seemingly immune to distraction? Think about this, in a different style of play; are the Giants any less dominant than New England was a year ago? Since losing to Cleveland on Monday night, they are 7-0 SU and ATS. The G-Men are very much like the Patriots teams of 2003-06, they just win games and cover spreads, not getting pinned with unrealistic spreads from oddsmakers.

Aaron Rodgers has been a pretty solid first year quarterback, with “first year” being the operative two words. He’s become more inconsistent as the season progressed and has shown the lack of patience in crunch time, like throwing the off-balance 30-yard interception into triple coverage in Carolina loss.

Matt Cassel will still likely make a lot of money in the free agent market, but he should come with –buyer beware- tags as was shown in Pittsburgh losses. He’s made great strides since being thrown into the fire with Tom Brady’s injury; however the Steelers showed the world, Cassel still has work to do.

Should Mike Singletary be the next coach of San Francisco? He still has four games to go to prove himself, however no questioning the visible difference in how the 49ers are playing. Singletary knows what he wants and will not settle for less and that attitude is showing in how the Niners are playing, being 3-1 ATS.

Quick Hits – Teams that commit five or more turnovers are 7-2 ATS in next game this season. The four NFC South teams are matched against each other this week. Strongly contemplate the home teams, who are 21-2 and 16-6-1 ATS this season. How bad are home underdog bets? In the last six weeks they are 6-19-1 ATS with only TWO outright upsets.

NBA December Betting Knowledge

I don’t know how many NBA sports bettors ever think about the differences in the time of the season and what influence, if any, it might have on which team will cover a point spread or what games in what situations might go Over or Under the lined total? Is this a valid angle to look at?

Living in Las Vegas and having gambled in all capacities for more years than I care to remember (those cocktail waitresses coming around all the time playing you with free drinks might have something to do with my memory insufficiencies), I’ve seen all types of beliefs, superstitions, methodologies, mantras, etc. of people who sit in the sports book, in front of slots and video poker machines, and at the card and dice tables.

Standing at the rail of the craps table, or more likely leaning on it, I’ve watched people increase their wager tenfold because somebody has thrown three naturals in a row, 7 or 11, on the come out roll. Their logic is he’s hot and he will roll another 7 or 11 winner giving them enough money to pay the cover charge to the casino’s super nightclub with a party being hosted by Corey Feldman. They don’t realize, or forget (those cocktail waitresses fault again?) that every roll of the dice is an independent event with prior results having no effect on the upcoming roll.


I think the phrase “I’m due”, “he’s due,”, “they’re due”, or for heaven’s sake, “somebody is due”! is one of the most frequently-uttered axioms in gambling. “I’m down $400 in blackjack, I’m due to win”. Well, maybe if you would learn to double-down when you have a total of ten and the dealer has a four showing, you wouldn’t be losing so badly. It is also one of the most fruitless expressions there is not just in gambling, but in life. I went through six years of college thinking I was due for an “A” in a class, any class. It finally happened in Bowling 101. I was so ecstatic until I found out that anybody who showed up for every class got a perfect grade. I guess I was somewhat ignorant thinking my 119 average on the lanes would achieve such a high grade.


It is not just a superstition or a wild belief that certain times of the season have certain tendencies. Just like at the beginning of a new baseball season, the first 30 days has some strong trends as many teams are getting used to working with new teammates on both offense and defense. There are always a few new coaches or changes in systems that teams have to become fluid with. December has its own certain trends that occur that not many people are aware of. These aren’t all 60%+ winning systems. They are more like tendencies to give you an edge, which in betting the NBA, it is very important to have any edge you can get.


Getting an edge is easy for December games. Since the beginning of the 2004 season during the month of December, away dogs have cashed a ticket 54.1% of the time. Except for the last couple of weeks of the season in April, December is the only month that has greater than a 50.5% winning rate for road dogs. That is as basic as you can get. Does this mean you should blindly bet on away dogs in December? In my opinion it doesn’t, but it does make me look at road dogs first before considering a home favorite. It’s nice to start capping a game with a 4.1% edge.


A situation that has averaged about nine occurrences a season but is worth looking for due to such a high winning percentage is: Since the 2002 season, a team off of a road win of 20 points or more has a 31-15 ATS record in December, 67.4%. There is only one other month with even a winning record in this situation, 28-22 in the month of March. The linesmaker doesn’t catch up with shading the line enough this early in the season. By January he does with the result of a 16-26 ATS record for the team off the big road victory.


How about following an easy trend for December that gives you two-for-one results: winners in both the side and the total? This out of sight trend only entails playing on teams that have won two road games in a row and also playing Over the lined total in that game. In December over the past three years, you would have cashed 15 out of twenty tickets on the winning side, one push, and 17 out of 21 times on the winning total. You don’t have to be a maverick of a handicapper to make money betting that trend.



A general rule many handicappers follow is to play on teams that have lost a couple of games in a row. They believe the line will be adjusted enough so the losing team is getting some value. This isn’t the case in December games. Teams that have lost two straight games only have a losing ATS record in that third game during one month of the season. And naturally that month is December. Just as in one of our earlier examples, the line has not adjusted accordingly this early in the season.


As in most sports, revenge can be a great tool to look for when handicapping games. First, in this example, we have to exclude April where you have about two weeks left of the regular season and a lot of funny stuff can happen such as teams tanking games to achieve a good draft spot, teams with playoff spots cinched that are resting regulars, and teams looking at young players to determine their future with the squad.


So, excluding April, if you just blindly played on a team seeking revenge from a same-season defeat, you would make money in every month over the past three years except what month? Move to the head of the class (or the front of the betting line) if you said December! Playing on same-season revenge-seeking teams in November, January, February, or March, means you would have a winning record of 55.5%. If you have played the NBA before, you will know that is not a bad record to hang your hat on. Maybe same-season revenge-seeking teams in December get into the holiday spirit as they only cover the point spread 45.5% of the time.


Pay attention to these December trends to help make you money. Right now, I am in the middle of a tough bowling match, but not to worry. I’m due to pick this 7-10 split up.


Jim Kruger is a noted NBA handicapper and owner of Vegas Sports Authority.

Wagering Activity for Monday Dec. 1

A most disappointing 0-3 day here at 3Daily Winners, fortunately they are far and few between. We’ll be out to rebound back, following what has been incredible angle on Monday night football. The LLC has a good majority of bettors backing one side in tonight’s football contest. Our Top System might just bust loose with an 84.6 percent totals play in the NBA. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY OVER on road teams like the Miami Heat where the total is greater than or equal to 210 after a close loss by 3 points or less against opponent after scoring 105 points or more. This system is 22-4, 84.6 percent, including 2-0 this season.

Free Football Trend -2) Monday Night football games are 12-1 OVER this season.

Free Football Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection consensus has Houston as the play with 63.6 percent wagering on them tonight.

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First Monday Night Home Game for Texans

In the first Monday night game ever at Reliant Stadium, Houston will go for its third straight win against Jacksonville on its home turf. While both of these teams appear headed home in January, recent get-togethers between these two have been interesting.

Case in point: The Jaguars won the earlier meeting in Week 3 on a 37-yard field goal by Josh Scobee in overtime to prevail, 30-27, failing to cover the 6.5-point spread on Sept.28. Kris Brown tied the game up on a 47-yarder with a second left, but consecutive David Garrard passes to Matt and Greg Jones, no relation, in the extra stanza set up the game-winning field goal. Matt Schaub was brilliant that day with 307 passing yards and three touchdowns in the losing cause.

The loss of Schaub hurt any chances the Texans even had of heading to the postseason and his replacement, Sage Rosenfels, has been subpar. Houston finally won without Schaub, beating Cleveland 16-6 behind a breakout game from a sagging defense (three interceptions, including two of Brady Quinn). This was just the Texans second road win and cover in 13 games.

The emergence of rookie running back Steve Slaton has been one of many rookie tailbacks who have stepped up in a big way in 2008 and his 774 yards and six touchdowns are proof of how important he has been. Slaton has also caught 32 passes and hasn’t fumbled.

Like Slaton, wideout Andre Johnson has also emerged after a slow September. Since the beginning of October, Johnson has caught 76 passes for 892 yards and three touchdowns. Playing against Jacksonville is a real boost of confidence for Houston, who is 7-6 and 10-3 ATS versus the Jags.

Beside San Diego, there hasn’t been a bigger disappointment than Jacksonville, which sits at 4-7 with 3-8 against the spread record. Losses to Cleveland, Cincinnati and Tennessee really did the team in and rumblings about head coach Jack Del Rio’s job security have surfaced again.

Garrard has failed to continue the success and progression from a year ago and has only nine touchdown passes through 11 games. The lack of production from Garrard has not been contagious to Maurice Jones-Drew, who leads the team with 11 touchdowns. With Jones-Drew reaping all the fruit, the cupboard has been bare for fellow running back Fred Taylor, who has yet to score and is averaging a career-low 3.6 yards per carry.

Bookmaker.com has Houston as a three-point favorite, with a total of 48. This will be only the third time the Texans have been favored in this series in 13 meetings, thou they were an expansion team early on. With Monday night games on 12-1 OVER roll this season, this one is worth a look also. The Jaguars are 8-1 OVER as a road underdog over the last two seasons and the Texans are amazing 10-0 OVER versus AFC South opponents over the same time span.

Jacksonville covers if they protect Garrard, who has been sacked 11 times the last two weeks. The patchwork offensive line is springing more leaks than a White House classified report. The Houston run defense is beatable, meaning Jones-Drew and friends can have enough moments to matter. The passing game has become real predictable. Any empty backfield means slant to Matt Jones or seam route to Mercedes Lewis, with bailout to Jones-Drew. Throw down the field and maybe the Jags improve to 13-3-1 ATS as division road underdogs.

Houston covers if they keep finding Johnson, since they have won four of the six games he has 100 yards or more receiving. His presence has opened up Kevin Walter, who has seven touchdowns this season. Their running backs are beat up; however spot production is necessary against pedestrian Jaguars defense. The defense forced five turnovers last week, unlikely to happen again, but the same aggressive attitude could take the Texans to 12-5 ATS hosting division rivals.

This week’s Monday night system is to play against any Monday night road underdog that has failed to cover the spread in consecutive games. This system is 20-9 ATS, 68.9 percent.

Sunday Best for NFL Betting

Ahh, nice to be back on the winning side with 2-1 record, though we have to get this system thing sorted out. Today’s best system has different twist than anything we have had all season and is 83.3 percent since 1999. Our Top Trends have been a serious winner of late, let’s see if a bad team can make us look good again. Left Coast Connection member Sal is having a outstanding week and has his best NFL play available. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON home teams off two or more consecutive Unders, in a game involving two good offensive teams averaging 23-27 PPG after eight or more games on the season. This dandy system is 15-3 ATS, 83.3 percent the last decade. It says here San Diego is the team that fits this system.

Free Football Trend -2) The St. Louis Rams are 2-17 ATS after allowing 200 or more rushing yards last game.

Free Football Selection -3) Sal gave us the Florida Gators winner on the way to a 6-2 day and comes back with Tampa Bay as his Best Bet on the NFL board.

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Early Line Moves in Football

For the Early Line Moves, we seek out the earliest lines and compare them on late Tuesday nights numbers to see what the so-called Line Movers do. Last week in college football these plays were magnificent 5-1 on the sides and desultory 1-3 in college totals. This makes season record 61-36-1, 62.8 percent on sides and 41-36, 53.2 percent on Totals in CFB. In the NFL, it was not good with another 0-1 mark on sides bringing the record to 12-12, 50 percent. On the Totals they came in meekly at 0-2, making the updated figure 20-16-1, 55.5 percent. Enjoy reading and closely follow these numbers for wagering portfolio.

College Sides
Mississippi -13 to -18 Winner
Boise State -18.5.5 to -21 Winner
Nebraska -15 to -18.5 Lost
Missouri -13 to -15.5
Georgia -9 to -7
Tulsa -14 to -16
USC -27 to -30

College Totals
We.Mich/ Ball St. 53 to 55.5 Winner
Hou/Rice 80 to 78

NFL Sides
NY Jets -9 to -7.5

NFL Totals
AZ/ Phil 47 to 48.5 Winner
Chic/Minn 43 to 41.5

College Football Wagering Material

An uninspired 1-2 day leaves us yearning for more. This Saturday we believe we have it what is takes, as the Top Trend continues to deliver and comes in 14-0 today. Saturday’s Best System is fabulous 19-2 ATS. Sal from the Left Coast Connection is 11-2 this week, including 4-0 yesterday in all sports and has his best college play.Good Luck.

Soap box moment- I have to my detriment defended Dick Vitale more times than I care to remember. Dicky V used to holler and scream, but he actually knew what he was talking about when finding the finer points of a particular game. Now he is compelled to share his opinions on a variety of subjects, some basketball related, some not. This week he talked about no 6-6 team should be able to play in a bowl game. While in principle I agree with Vitale, having 34 bowl games and even number of games creates issues. Hey Dicky V, why no problem with teams having losing records that make the NCAA tournament because they played well for three or four days?

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON home teams like Texas Tech off one or more straight Overs, who score more than 34 points per game, against a poor defensive team like Baylor (28-34 PPG) after 7 or more games. Since 2004, this system is 19-2 ATS, 90.4 percent and has average winning margin of over 31 points.

Free Football Trend -2) The Rice Owls are 14-0 ATS in home games vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes a game.

Free Football Selection -3) Sal of the LLC has has heated up again and is on the Florida Gators today.

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College Football Game Day Writeups

Is it really possible that Oregon State will be playing in the Rose Bowl and not during the regular season for the first time in 44 years? For the Beavers, the most treacherous of opponents, an in-state rival with hated in their hearts is looking to spoil an improbable journey. Florida and Alabama each have rivalry game tune-ups before the big SEC title game showdown. So much for USC and Notre Dame being a big deal this season, the only stories here are Charley Weis’ continued employment in South Bend or to give or take the 30+ points. Something seems a little fishy about Oklahoma and Oklahoma State line, watch how this plays out Saturday night in Stillwater. All the lines shown are from Bookmaker.com.

Florida (-16.5, 57.5) at Florida State 3:30E ABC

After igniting The Citadel 70-19, the Florida Gators travel north to Tallahassee for bragging rights between these universities. Florida is on everyone’s “don’t’ play” list, outscoring opponents by 41 points a game since losing to Mississippi in late September. Even coach Urban Meyer is impressed with what he is witnessing. "The chemistry (on this team) borders on phenomenal," Meyer said. "I love these guys. I trust them. I believe in them, and I like watching them work." The versatility of this Florida team is being shown more frequently, as they rushed for 346 yards against what was the SEC’s best defense in South Carolina. On defense, they don’t have the dominating front four like the national champs of two years ago; however they might be more complete. The Gators have forced SEC-best 27 turnovers this season. "We're playing as hard as we can, out of our minds right now," Florida sophomore cornerback Joe Haden said. Florida is 10-3-1 ATS in non-conference action under Meyer.

To continue reading click here.

How Real Sports Bettors Spend Black Friday

While watching television this week and starting Brooke Burke withdrawal on Dancing with the Stars, I saw some ridiculous store is opening at 4:00 am Friday morning to get my business. The only retail business I’m doing at that time of the day is at a 24-hour Denny’s or Micky D’s after carousing the night before. My only goal is to wake up in time to place a few bets on football and basketball before the first game starts.

While the few remaining people that actually have a couple hundred dollars in their saving accounts and about the same left on credit card limits, goes out to spends the rest, with the knowledge the new year could bring unemployment, you like me don’t have a care in the world other than making sure the TV works, there’s beer in the fridge and three pounds of turkey your mom or relative sent home for the weekend is still cold.

Their might not be a more appropriately termed expression than playing in “the losers bracket”, on the day after Thanksgiving at 10:30 am Eastern in Orlando, in the Old Spice Basketball Classic. This follows from playing basketball ON Thanksgiving. (I wonder if you get the Old Spice gift pack swag for showing up) I’ll probably pass on that and get ready for West Virginia and Pitt in the backyard brawl and take West Virginia in big revenge game.

At 12:30 Eastern on Game Plan or if you live in the South somewhere, the Egg Bowl will be played. For those unfamiliar, this is Mississippi State vs Mississippi. In case you haven’t read or heard this, how they came up with the name Egg Bowl was from a trophy they came up that was egg-shaped to present after the game to stop fighting between the fans of each team, that’s nuts. Nothing nuts about Houston Nutt taking Ole Miss to first bowl game since some quarterback named Eli followed his old man there in Oxford. I like that the Rebels have won four in a row (3-1 ATS) and are 6-0 ATS in November the last few years.

At 2:30 Eastern, CBS turns on the way-back machine and has Don Criqui and Dan Fouts do the LSU at Arkansas contest. Both announcers are well past their prime, which this year is true of the Tigers and Hogs. Remember how were told all the speed the SEC has and this is the best conference known to mankind. If it’s so special, how come a team supposedly as powerful as LSU has only held Appalachian State, North Texas and Tulane to less than two touchdowns? I talked to a SEC scout about two weeks ago and he said Arkansas definitely doesn’t have the same talent as the last few years, but in his eyes, the Razorback players don’t play nearly as hard for Bobby (vagabond) Petrino. I know Sportsbook.com has LSU as 4.5-point favorites and I like the fact Miles minions are 12-3 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite.

At about 3:30E on ABC, two Big 12 teams who used to sit at the big table for the holidays, will meet when Colorado travels Lincoln to take on Nebraska. Once the Big 12 was formulated, this became the marquee matchup in the Big 12 North, with these two schools having battled for Big 8 titles in the late 1980’s and early 90’s. Both are trying to make a comeback bigger than the Sex Pistols. Nebraska is 18-point favorite in this meaningless game and I’ll bite with the Children of the Corn 18-6 ATS in home games off two straight wins against conference rivals. I’ll also back the Huskers since the defense, though still bad by Blackshirt standards, had 65 painted on them in Boulder last year on this day.

Did you know they are playing they are playing the preseason NIT championship at 4 Eastern on Friday? Can’t figure that out, but will have to keep flipping channels while opening more adult beverages and stuffing face with leftovers. (Is it me or is turkey like chips the day after Thanksgiving)

I have to admit it, I can not stand Fresno State coach Pat Hill and I’m looking forward to Boise State blasting them into the next universe commencing at 6 Eastern on ESPN also (2). Seriously, have you ever heard or seen a coach who puts more emphasis on big non-conference games than winning a league title! This is his 12th year in Raisin Country and he tied for first in the WAC twice in his tenure and nothing since 1999. Yet he gets all these accolades for beating the occasional BCS team or coming oh so close. When Hill first took over at Fresno State, he said he wanted to build a program like Florida State’s. In the end he has, mediocre. The Wussdogs have been outscored by 87 total points in their last three trips into Boise. With the Broncos 9-1 and 8-2 against the spread in their last home game and gorgeous 20-4 ATS as conference home favorite of 28 or less, I’ll back Boise.

By 9:30E, I’ll be really bloated, looking more like Micky Rourke and catch a little of the UCLA and Arizona State game. I’ll probably be asleep before the first quarter is over, but I’ll rest comfortably knowing UCLA is 10-2 UNDER after playing three straight Pac-10 games.

This whole Black Friday thing is way overrated; I’ve got a great day planned.


Writer Red Wydley made this holiday contribution.

Black Friday Wagering Tips

I hope everybody had a great Thanksgiving and we hope to get our Top System plays back in order with 81.2 percent play that has been even hotter the last few years. Our lone winner was a Top Trend and we think we have another winner in the WAC on Friday. The LLC has a Free consensus play up on tap. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON a home team like Nebraska off one or more straight Overs, who are an excellent offensive team , averaging 34 or more PPG, against a poor defensive team (28-34 PPG) like Colorado after 7 or more games. This system is tantalizing is 26-6 ATS, 81.2 percent since 1999 and is 9-2 the last three years.

Free Football Trend -2) Boise State is 20-4 ATS as conference home favorite of 28 or less points.

Free Football Selection -3) Left Coast Connection has a consensus play on Toledo today, with eight backers and no dissenters.

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HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ALL

I and the rest of the Left Coast Connection members wish all of you a Wonderful Thanksgiving. Enjoy the company you keep today and have a lot of fun.

Purdue blew a 19-point lead in the last six minutes unfortunately and took others besides us in failing to cover and giving us 1-2 day. We have stupendous system in the NFL, but be warned, it will take courage to play. We have a spot trend involving Thursday’s and the Detroit Lions. Our Free Play will be a 100 percent Winner! Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON underdogs of 10.5 or more points, who are a pathetic team, being out-gained by their opponents by 100 or more yards a game, after being out-gained by 100 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This system is 25-4 ATS, 86.2 percent, including 3-0 this year. Seattle is the team that makes the grade here. Note the average spread margin for this play in 13.5 PPG and average margin of victory is 8.8 points.

Free Football Trend -2) Thursday home underdogs of 7.5 or more points are worse than overcooked sweet potatoes at 2-8-1 ATS, play against Detroit.

Free Football Selection -3) Everyone I’ve talked to agrees; take the OVER on eating and drinking today.

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Thanksgiving NFL Football Feast

Many are clamoring to have the Detroit Lions not play on Thanksgiving. Why, because the Lions are terrible, have been and will be for the foreseeable future. But this country needs traditions, things that we can count on, not changing everything for the sake of change. If you don’t like the game, here is a thought, don’t watch it and talk to your family or relatives. Enjoy the company of another; just don’t whine about the Detroit Lions. In fact to make it more interesting, bet the game or have everybody at the house pick a side with the spread, it’s sure to add to the camaraderie of the day rooting for certain teams.

Tennessee at Detroit (Lions +11, 44.5)

Dating back to 1934, the Lions have been a proud part of the American celebration of Thanksgiving Day. They’ve played 68 games on the national Holiday and take a 33-33-2 record into this year’s contest against Tennessee. Detroit (4-7 ATS) has dropped four straight on the fourth Thursday of November while being outscored by a lopsided 121-50 margin, yet even worse is the fact it has lost 12 in a row and 17 of 18 on Sundays.

Combine the Lions 0-11 start to 2008 with the Titans 10-1 (9-1-1 ATS) mark and the NFL nearly had the setting for the perfect storm at Ford Field. But even if Tennessee enters the stadium under a ladder, breaks a mirror in the locker room and spills the salt during its pre-game turkey meal with extra tryptophan, it should feast on a team that last celebrated a win before the holidays in ‘07. The Titans have won and covered their last seven games on the road.

After losing to the Jets, 34-13, the Titans need a few more wins to wrap up the No. 1 seed in the AFC and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Now that veteran quarterback Kerry Collins has shown he can win games for Tennessee—like he did in Weeks 10 and 11 in Chicago and Jacksonville—it’s hard to find something to knock. The offense is balanced, the defense is smothering and the special teams are pretty special. The appearance of the Jets loss was New York just wanted it more and was set up to beat them literally at their own game. Tennessee is still a delectable 25-10-2 ATS versus the NFC.

Collins, whose been sacked six times in 310 pass attempts, has only nine touchdowns but five came in the last three games. It took him eight starts to throw for 200 yards in a game, but it’s rarely a necessity with a backfield tandem of LenDale White (11 touchdowns) and Chris Johnson (833 yards, five scores) and a defense allowing 15.0 points per game. Though when the Bears and Jaguars shut the running game down, Collins delivered.

While Tennessee is fully loaded, Detroit has a couple of budding stars capable of turning the franchise around a season or two down the road. Second-year wide receiver Calvin Johnson is developing a knack for big plays but can stand to be more consistent. He’s got six touchdowns in the last seven games and six receptions of at least 40 yards on the year. In addition, rookie running back Kevin Smith has 294 yards in the last three games after totaling 305 in the first eight. If you want an upside, The Lions are 7-0 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last three seasons.

Bookmaker.com has the Lions on the receiving end of 11.5-points with a total of 44. Detroit is on a run for four straight Over’s and is 7-0 OVER after five or more consecutive losses.

Thanksgiving Tasty Angle- Thursday home underdogs of 7.5 or more points are worse than overcooked sweet potatoes at 2-8-1 ATS.

To read about the other two games click here.

Betting College Hoops Non-Conference Action

The college basketball season has started with most teams already having played three or more games. For some sports bettors, the beginning of the college season presents as many challenges and unknowns as making heads or tails of who is going to win a match in the Czech Gambrinus Soccer League between FK Jablonec and AC Sparta Prague.

In traditional handicapping of college hoops, you first have to determine the players who have graduated and what they meant to their team, how many points, rebounds, etc. were they good for? Were they a leader, perhaps a defensive stopper? Did the offense revolve around them or did they create the offense themselves? Then you have to take into account the many freshmen, transfers, any change of coaches, injuries, and academic casualties a team has. How difficult was the travel for the visiting team? Is it as easy to travel to and from Valparaiso (wherever that is!) as it is to get to Duke?

The point is the average Joe the Bettor, let alone even many a professional handicapper, just doesn’t have the time to invest the due diligence required to have a good fundamental background on many NCAA basketball teams or leagues. Instead of trying to let you know about the highly touted freshman point guard at SMU who is teaming up with a quality front line, let’s take a look at some basic stuff that doesn’t require tremendous research and hopefully will help you be on the right side of more wagers than not.

There always is the pervasive belief that betting on underdogs is a higher percentage wager than betting on favorites. Well, not in non-conference college hoops overall. Since the beginning of the 2005 season, in over 3600 lined games, the favorite has covered the spread 51.6% of the time. Single-point favs did better than double-digit favorites beating the number in 52.8% of the games. Small favorites from pick’em to -2.5 were best at 53.9%.

Another common belief is to bet on home dogs and you can’t lose. In that same time frame, home teams getting points in non-conference games only cashed a ticket 46.4% of the time. So now that you have the facts, you don’t have to listen to “bookie crusher Bob” or that know-it-all bartender tell you that dogs cover 55% of the time. You can also throw the fact to them that away favorites of 3 to 9.5 points in non-con games since 2005 have topped the point spread at a 55.1% clip.

Okay, is there a way we can improve upon these poor winning percentages? Let’s add a qualifier or two into the equation. How do teams that won their last game and also beat the point spread do in their next match against a non-conference opponent? It is human nature to believe that a team in this situation would be a good bet in their next game. After all, they beat the linesmakers’ expectations, surely they must be a better team than people thought they were, aren’t they?

I’ve stopped using the now-ubiquitous phrase coined by ESPN college football analyst, Lee Corso, ever since a four-year old at my son’s pre-school barked at me “not so fast my friend” when I asked him if it was okay for Jim Jr. to play with his Hot Wheels Turbo Cars. So, just take my word, you should take a closer look before betting on a team off of a win and point-spread cover when they are playing a non-conference game.

The reason for taking a closer look is over the past three years teams put as a home dog in that situation are only 62-92 ATS, 40.3%. And, to tighten the trend down further, if that win and point spread cover came at home, the home dogs are only beating the number 36.8% of the time, 35-60. As a side note, those games are going Under the total 55.9% of the time.

You don’t run across many spots where you can find a blind 62.5% winning record that takes as much brain power to follow as it does to name who is buried in Grant’s Tomb. Well, maybe that is a trick question. Grant is in a mausoleum, and no one is buried in a mausoleum, the bodies are above ground. So let’s just get to the answer: Teams that won and covered the point spread on the road in non-conference action only cover the spread in their next game 37.5% of the time if they are pick’em to a 2.5 point dog. Since the line is so low, regardless if they are home or on the road, the chances are they are playing an equally talented team.

As a general rule of thumb, I like to keep track of how individual conferences do in a gambling perspective during non-conference action. Certain biases exist amongst the public on what conferences are stronger and do well against other conferences. This in turn helps shape the linesmakers’ opinions on where to make the number and where the number actually moves to.

There are some conferences where the results just flatly state what the quality of the conference is. The Ohio Valley Conference is the perfect example. Overall, in non-conference action, the OVC is 92-141 ATS, 39.5%. As an underdog it is slightly worse, 60-100, 37.5%. The not-so-sweet spot for OVC teams is as a 10 to 20.5 dog, 20-45 ATS, 30.8%. The point being, you better have a very good reason to bet on an Ohio Valley Conference team in non-league play unless you don’t mind helping your bookie make his mortgage payment.

Everybody likes the Big 10. The news of the day is you shouldn’t like them as a non-conference away underdog, 33-45, 42.3%. And if the line is pick’em to +2.5, how does 3-14 ATS sound? It’s not much better in that upper-range single digit dog, 5-14, getting 7 to 9.5 points.

How about a conference that does well, as a favorite or a dog, when they are playing out of their own neighborhood? Try the Missouri Valley Conference, 145-108 all non-con games. They actually do better as a favorite, 67-47, 58.8%, than as a dog. The MVC’s sweet spot is at home at pick’em to laying up to 2.5 points, 10-1 ATS since 2005.

And you always have to look at the wacky WAC for something out of the ordinary. Over the past three seasons, the Western Athletic Conference is a sad 46-67 ATS when installed as a home favorite playing teams not from the WAC. It gets worse if they are favored by 3 to 13.5 points, 29-50, 36.7%.

Follow these guidelines listed above and you should improve your winning percentage in college hoops non-conference action. Oh, incidentally, Josef, my friend from the Czech Republic told me to put my money on AC Sparta Prague. However, I don’t know if they won their previous match or how they do out of conference.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority fashioned this piece.

Pre-Thanksgiving Wagering Info and Insight

I guess a new coach is all the Washington Wizards needed in order to turn, of course the always stellar Golden State defense contributed, as our best system went down. The best trend baled us out for 1-1 day officially and we have another impressive Top Trend, this one on the ice. Our Top System play takes college basketball bettors to Hawaii, looking at the total and two teams playing one another both qualify for the same system that is 87.5 percent. Good Luck.

Patience can be a virtue if you can wait it out. I mentioned last week about not getting hooked by the hook on key numbers. Yesterday, Ball State was -10.5 and I liked them for a 2* play (see below how to get these plays), but was not going to put myself into position to lose by half point. Instead, I saw the a numbers of handicappers were giving out Western Michigan and waited until about an hour before kickoff to grab a -10. As it turns out I didn’t need it, but it was comforting knowing I had a push instead of loss on the right number.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY UNDER on neutral court games, involving teams where the total is greater than or equal to 160 after scoring 75 points or more two straight games. This system is 28-4, 87.5 percent, including 4-0 this season. As luck would have it, Maui finalists Notre Dame and North Carolina both fit this system.

Free Hockey Trend -2) The San Jose Sharks are 11-1 on the money line at home this season and have defeated Chicago Blackhawks nine in a row.

Free Basketball Selection -3) This play is official, eight LLC members are on Purdue tonight.

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Great College Football Rivalries - Part 2

Last week we looked at many of the colorful rivalries that make college football such a rich sport steeped in tradition. This upcoming week will take a further look at several more historic matchups being played this holiday weekend starting Thanksgiving night.

On Thursday night, Texas and Texas A&M will hookup for their annual battle. These archrivals have always had a “big brother, little brother” relationship, with the Aggies trying to outdo Texas. Years ago these two schools set up a program that awarded points to every athletic competition, be it men’s or women’s sports, which were totaled at the end of the year and a winner was announced. Texas has won this competition every year. The home team is 5-5, but 8-2 against the spread. Texas is still in the BCS hunt and will be looking to chew up the Aggies like a left over turkey leg.

On Friday, the Egg Bowl rivalry will be renewed as Mississippi State heads over to Oxford to get in on with the Rebels. This match-up is best described as a “family feud” as read in William Barner’s book on the history of the rivalry. Back in the old days, fans would break out into fights before, during and after the games. In 1926, the fighting got so ugly after the first Ole Miss victory in 13 years that officials came up with the concept of the Golden Egg Trophy, awarded to the winner in a formal ceremony each year. It was supposed to cut down on such ugliness, instead the fans just fought outside the stadium as opposed to in it. The Rebels have won four of last six and are 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine contests.

There is no game that has loyalties running deeper than Alabama and Auburn. This is a regionalized affair that is important to every Alabamian. In a state that has had a century-old love affair with college football, this one is about 60 minutes of football determining bragging rights in Alabama for the next 364 days. The losers have only "next year" to cling to because the scores of other games during the season really do not matter. The game is known as the Iron Bowl because its birthplace is in Birmingham, which was built around huge iron ore deposits in the Alabama hill country. What is truly unusual about this historic rivalry is it was not played for 41 years from 1907-1948. The universities had reached an impasse in 1907, with unfair officiating being one of the charges, and neither side could come to an agreement, thus no game was played in that time period. The 1950’s saw Auburn’s Shug Jordan dominate the Crimson Tide, until Paul “Bear” Bryant returned and eventually the series turned to Alabama’s favor. Bryant teams went on to crush the Tigers for years before losing in his final game in the series. Shortly thereafter, “The Bear” announced his retirement and two months later he passed away. The names like Joe Namath, Ken Stabler, Bo Jackson, Shaun Alexander are all part of the lore along with the infamous kicker Van Kiffen, who made what became known as “The Kick” in 1985. Kiffen drilled a 52-yard field goal with just seconds left to give Alabama a 25-23 win. No.1 Alabama hosts this year’s event trying to break a stranglehold Auburn has had with six straight wins (4-2 ATS) under coach Tommy Tuberville, as the Tigers are creeping ever closer to the Tide who own a 38-33-1 all-time edge. Auburn can shatter most of the dreams of #1 Alabama with a seventh triumph. The home team is just 4-9 ATS; with the Tide 5-5 ATS in last 10 and Tigers 9-6 ATS on the road against ranked teams.

A regionalized rivalry known as the “Border War” between Kansas and Missouri will once again have great meaning to the combatants. This will be the second year of two-year agreement to return to the roots of origination and play the game in somewhat neutral Kansas City (19 of the first 20 games were played in Kansas City). The all-time football series has Missouri leading 54-53, with 9 ties. The underdog is 8-5 ATS in the last 13 years. Surprisingly this is the second oldest rivalry in D-1 (FBS), with the winner getting The Indian War Drum.

The “Bedlam Game” will be played in Stillwater this season, when the Oklahoma Sooners arrive. It’s hard to almost call this a rivalry since Oklahoma leads with an all-time record of 78-16-7. Billionaire Boone Pickens is doing his best to change all that, upgrading the facilities in Stillwater to be better then any in the Big 12 and among the best in the country. Unfortunately he can’t buy the Cowboys a new defense that can stop the sizzling Sooners. The home team is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 fracases.

The battle of Palmetto State is a heated rivalry with origins back to the 1880’s concerning historic tensions regarding their respective charters. The two institutions are separated by just over 125 miles, holding the longest uninterrupted series in the South and the third longest uninterrupted series overall, having been played every year since 1909. The meeting has a strange ritual dating back to early 1900’s and is carried on today. Without going into all the long details, South Carolina and Clemson University bring a made-up symbol about the other and burns it on Friday night before the big encounter. The 2004 game is the most recent contest etched in the minds of the schools and people across the country, when both teams started brawling at the conclusion of Clemson’s 29-7 victory. Each team had won a total of six games that year and were technically bowl eligible. However, both schools elected to forfeit their postseason because of the shameful nature of the fight. This series typifies maybe as much as any the frenzied excitement, with the visitor 15-4 ATS in the last 19 meetings.

Georgia and Georgia Tech can best be explained by book Bill Cromartie penned – Clean, Good Old Fashion Hate. These teams can’t even agree on the number of games they have competed on the gridiron. Georgia Tech’s records show two more then Georgia’s, as the Bulldogs do not acknowledge the games played in 1943-44 since many of there players were in World War II. Georgia has a 21-game edge in the series and under Mark Richt, the Bulldogs have ripped off seven straight. The visitor is 8-2 ATS.

Florida State and Florida is all about protecting the home turf as demonstrated by 15-5 ATS record in which some of the best athletes in college football have played in this battle. Florida has had the better of it in recent years with four consecutive wins and like most years, the outcome has national implications.

The Notre Dame-USC rivalry is regarded as the greatest intersectional series in college football and has been played annually since 1926, except for a brief repose during World War II. The winner of this rivalry game is awarded the coveted Jeweled Shillelagh, a war club adorned with emerald-emblazoned clovers signifying Irish victories and Ruby-emblazoned Trojan warrior heads for Trojan wins. Notre Dame is 3-9 ATS against cross-country rival USC since 1996 and has lost last three games at the L.A. Memorial Coliseum by 82 points.

This Tuesday is about Betting Opportunity

A 1-2 Monday leaves a bad taste in the mouth, as Alabama showed a complete lack of courage in the face of adversity in being drubbed by Oregon. I would be real careful playing the Crimson Tide in hoops for the foreseeable future. We think we have the right elixir to cleanse ourselves from yesterday ,with a prefect trend in the NBA and 95.6 percent professional basketball system. The LLC has interesting look at tonight's big college football contest. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON road teams like Golden State. Who are good offensive teams scoring 103 or more points a game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. This system is nearly airtight at 22-1 ATS the last three years.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The New Jersey Nets 0-9 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last two seasons.

Free Football Selection -3) We have a 50-50 split on tonight's Western Michigan-Ball State matchup. It is noted all the Left Coast Connection players with better CFB records are riding the Broncos with the +10.5.

Monday's Top Wagering info

Never take anything for granted, especially 2-1 days in the NFL. In the NBA on Monday, a very good Top Trend is worth consideration based on shooting. Today’s Best System is 81.5 percent against the spread and this team has never lost outright. Jason from the LLC had a strong weekend in college hoops and has a Best Bet as a Free Play. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites of 10 or more points like Davidson, off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, who won 80 percent or more of their games last season, playing a team who had a losing record last year. This is 22-5 ATS, 81.5 percent and has never lost straight up (27-0), with the winning margin being 27.5 on average.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Miami Heat are 2-11 ATS in home games after a game where they made 50% of their 3-point shots or better over the last three seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Jason of the Left Coast Connection was 7-1 in college basketball wagering the last three days and is playing Alabama as his best bet.

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Green Bay Has Covered on the Road

After upending Minnesota in Week 1, Green Bay will try for another win on Monday night at the expense of New Orleans, which dropped a heartbreaker to those same Vikings on a Monday night four weeks later. With the NFC North still wide open, the Packers (5-5, 6-3-1 ATS) have hurt their chances by losing three games by three points or fewer. A classic example is head coach Mike McCarthy’s team dropping a tough overtime contest to Tennessee one week and following that by losing to Minnesota by a point when kicker Mason Crosby missed a long field goal late at the Metrodome.

Despite the pressure of taking the reins from Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers has settled in quite nicely with 2,351 yards, 15 touchdowns and six interceptions in his first season as a starter. Rodgers also has three rushing touchdowns and has thrown touchdown passes to seven different players, including five to receiver Greg Jennings.

Defensively, Green Bay lost a key cog in the linebacker corps when Nick Barnett went down with an ACL injury, leaving the middle linebacker spot to A.J. Hawk, who along with the secondary, have been stellar against the pass, ranking #3 in the NFL, allowing 176.5 yards a game, and shut down Chicago in last week’s 37-3 romp. Needless to say, the secondary will face a stern test from quarterback Drew Brees; however have a couple of angles in their favor. The Pack has covered seven straight in dome surroundings and is 15-5 ATS in road games over the last three seasons.

A 30-20 win over lowly Kansas City saved the season for the New Orleans (6-4 ATS), who improved to 5-5. Unfortunately, capturing the NFC South crown is a pipedream, but head coach Sean Payton’s team feels a red-hot Brees could propel them to a wild-card spot.

When he is not yelling at tight end Jeremy Shockey, Brees has been lighting it up with a league-leading 3,251 passing yards and 18 touchdowns and should easily surpass the 4,423 yards he threw for a year ago. Another reason Brees could accomplish that feat is the return of wideout Marques Colston, who showed encouraging signs by snagging seven balls for 140 yards in the loss to Atlanta in Week 10.

The possible return of Reggie Bush from knee surgery is an added boost to a New Orleans rushing attack that averages only 91 yards a game. Granted, the Saints have been trailing in most games and have resorted to passing more, but power runners like Deuce McAllister (299 yards) and Pierre Thomas (238) have struggled in Bush’s absence. At least this season, the Saints have been marching home to victory more often with 3-1 SU and ATS record.

Bookmaker.com has New Orleans as jovial one-point home favorite, finally playing at the Superdome for the first time since Oct.12. Considering both teams have the ability to score points and have suspect defenses with weak elements, the total of 51.5 seems like a natural to go over, especially with these teams a combined 22-6 OVER after one or more straight victories. Nonetheless, there is a Totals system to consider- Play Under on any team like the Saints where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5, after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in weeks 10 through 13. The system is a slick 19-3 since 2004.

Green Bay covers if they protect Rodgers like they did last week against Chicago, not like they did versus Minnesota. If the offensive line blocks well enough for RB Ryan Grant to have success again, this opens up the passing game against Saints secondary that ranks 26th. The pass rush hasn't been as good as it was last season, but the front four has done a good job of deflecting passes at the line of scrimmage, which is important against Brees, who though talented, is mildly vertically challenged. Bat down a few passes to make New Orleans adjust pocket. The Green and Gold is 7-1 ATS in November.

New Orleans covers if they get pressure up the middle, since Rodgers has shown a tendency to hang onto the ball a little too long. The defensive backs have to tackle well and limit the number of gains over 10 yards. Get the running game going, testing what has been a vulnerable front seven for Green Bay. If Reggie Bush is truly ready, see how the Packers linebackers handle him is open areas.

This week’s Monday night system is to play against any road team that plays outdoors versus a home team in a dome. This system is 29-14 ATS, 67.4 percent.