Running with the Bowls

Other sports journalists can whine about too many bowl games, sports bettors like us are just grateful for the chance of most action, with 34 sides and totals to consider over the next 20 days. The first four are available Saturday and plenty of tough decisions to made. Navy and Wake Forest start the festivities in Washington, D.C. Two bowl games will be offered in afternoon action, with 7-5 clubs squaring off against .500 teams. In the nitecap, Arizona and BYU matchup that could have a little more spice than your typical pre-Christmas contest. Take note that favorites before Dec.25 are 21-2 and 14-9 ATS.

EagleBank Bowl –ESPN 11:00 E
Navy (8-4, 6-5 ATS) vs Wake Forest (7-5, 5-7 ATS)

The bowl season starts in our nation’s capital without the usual bang, but with more of a whimper. It’s a rematch (any bowls worst nightmare) of Navy and Wake Forest from Sept. 27, when Navy pulled the 24-17 upset catching 17-points on the road. The Demon Deacons turned out to be vastly overrated and are just 13-24 ATS as a favorite. Wake Forest is 5-3 and 4-2 ATS in bowls.

The Navy’s top-rated running game deserves most of the attention at 294.7 yards per game, however many will be singing the praises of the defense off consecutive shutouts. The Midshipmen have been one of the best spread teams for a numbers of years and they are 18-5 ATS in all December games since 1992. A 6-7-1 bowl record is fair, but a 7-2 ATS mark will fatten a wallet.

Why to Watch and Wager:

This is the first time in 63 years Wake Forest is playing the same team twice in the season. You would believe revenge would be a big motivator for the Demon Deacons, who are 20-6 ATS vs. meager passing teams averaging 150 or less passing yards a game. Navy’s defense has to feel pretty proud after hanging eight straight zeros on the scoreboard and not a touchdown scored on them in over nine quarters. Their must have been something about the letter “W” this season, with Wake 103rd in total offense, among five different universities with that letter that finished in the 100’s in total yards gained. The Middies are 17-5 ATS on the road versus poor offensive teams averaging 310 or less yards per game.

Bookmaker Line – Wake Forest -3, 43.5

New Mexico Bowl –ESPN 2:30 E
Colorado State (6-6, 6-5 ATS) vs Fresno State (7-5, 2-10 ATS)

It was another disappointing campaign for Fresno State, who was the preseason favorite to win the WAC. The 105th ranked run defense took care of any hopes of the Bulldogs being extremely successful this season. Fresno State became a steady play against team this season at 2-10 ATS and is on a 1-9 ATS run as a favorite. Fresno State is 10-7 and 6-5 ATS in the postseason, thou 0-4 ATS as faves.

Colorado State won its last two games to become bowl eligible after two losing seasons. First year coach Steve Fairchild’s team should have a chance if the Rams can gear up the running game, being 15-3 ATS when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt. "We still have a lot of work to do here at Colorado State, in all areas of our program, but this is obviously a step in the right direction, and a tremendous reward for our 17 seniors, who've worked extremely hard during their time here in Fort Collins," Fairchild said. Colorado State is 1-4 ATS as a bowl underdog to go with 4-7 record.

Why to Watch and Wager:

Colorado State averages 263.3 yards passing per game with senior Billy Farris at the controls. Fresno State is weaker against the run than the pass, yet lacks playmakers in the secondary with a FBS-low four interceptions on the season. The Bulldogs roll over like a puppy after a spread loss like they suffered in last game to Boise State and are odorous 1-15 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three seasons. If Fresno State gets the running game in order, they should have no problems slugging it out in the trenches against Rams run defense that was allowed 185.7 yards per game, which is ranked 100th.

Bookmaker Line – Fresno State -3, 60

MagicJack St. Petersburg Bowl –ESPN2, 4:30 E
South Florida (7-5, 4-7-1 ATS) vs. Memphis (6-6, 5-5-1 ATS)

South Florida, based in Tampa, will be very close to home in inaugural St. Petersburg, FL Bowl. The Bulls never came together as a team predicted to win the Big East title this season, as they were undermined by -7 turnover margin, in losing four of last five. The South Florida defense did its best, finishing 13th in the country in yards allowed at 291.1 per game. South Florida is 23-15 ATS in non-conference action.

Memphis made another late season push to finish 6-6, winning three of last four contests. The Tigers tamed Tulane 45-6 to have a chance to be invited to a bowl; however are 2-15 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game. Neither team has played in many bowls, though South Florida has an excuse being a FBS member only since 2001. The Bulls are 1-2 SU and ATS and Memphis is 3-2 all-time failing to cover as underdog on both occasions.

Why to Watch and Wager:

It’s hard to say if coach Tommy West is getting the max out of the Memphis program, yet with his continued back luck at the quarterback position, just earning a bowl invite is darn good. West teams have had a penchant for playing well against good defenses like South Florida , with 9-1 ATS in road games vs. defensive teams allowing 310 or fewer yards a game. The Bulls have to travel all of 32 miles to the home of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for this bowl encounter. Quarterback Matt Grothe had a fairly disappointing senior season, trying to do too much with not much help from receivers who couldn’t get open. This is his one last chance for redemption in front of a largely partisan USF crowd. Check out defensive tackle George Selvie, who will likely go into NFL draft as a junior. After scoring only seven points in snowy and wind-swept West Virginia in last contest, the Bulls are 8-1 ATS after scoring nine points or less last game.

Bookmaker Line – South Florida -11, 55

Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl-ESPN 8:00 E
BYU (10-2, 3-8 ATS vs Arizona (7-5 SU & ATS)

BYU is probably mildly unhappy about not winning the conference, yet backers of the Mormon University always enjoy making the trek to Sin City. This will be their fourth consecutive trip to this bowl, thus the enthusiasm of the players is a question mark. The Cougars 17th ranked offense will match wits with the 21st ranked Arizona defense. What ended up costing BYU an undefeated season was a defense that was too slow against faster teams. The Cougars are 1-7 ATS since October.

The Wildcats only had one real bad defensive game against Oregon, allowing 55 points, otherwise were solid. Arizona is a field goal favorite with quarterback Willie Tuitama leading a balance attack averaging over 400 yards a game, which is 3-10 ATS in that role in non-conference play. Interesting to note, the Mountain West was 6-1 and 4-3 ATS in regular season meetings. The ‘Cats are in first bowl since 1998.

Why to Watch and Wager:

BYU has won eight in a row at Boyd Stadium, including two in a row over Pac-10 opponents. This should be the motivating factor for quarterback Max Hall and the offense to play well. The Cougars are 13-3 ATS in road games versus defensive teams allowing 310 yards or fewer yards per game, nevertheless this will be their third consecutive contest away from Provo and they are just 4-20 ATS after a two-game road trip. Count the ‘Cats as excited to be in a bowl game and this might be a prickly encounter as theses two schools have faced off the previous two seasons, splitting the contests. Coach Mike Stoops saved his job for the time being and hopes his team is ready, since they 3-8 and 4-7 ATS away from Tucson.

Bookmaker Line – Arizona -3.5, 59.5

Getting Ready for Wagering Weekend

Came back with a winning 2-1 mark and prepare for a big sports weekend. Our Best Trend looks in the NBA with a dysfunctional team that still manages to cover spreads. Jason of the Left Coast Connection returns on a real streak and gives us his Best Bet for Friday. No outstanding systems in sports today, thus we’ll supply a rare NFL Totals system for Sunday. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY UNDER on home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points, off two consecutive road losses, with a winning record on the season. Tampa Bay is the qualifying team and this totals system is 22-4, 84.6 percent, dating back 25 years for this extremely rare play.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The New York Knicks are 11-1 ATS after playing three consecutive games as an underdog this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Jason from the LLC did not do very well in football this season and started poorly in basketball. To his credit, he kept fighting and retuned some of his methods and over the last 5 days is 24-9, 72.7 percent in all his wagers. He loves the Detroit Pistons and went large on them.

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Making a Case for Betting Good College Hoops Teams

Last week I wrote an article about an easy method to handicapping the National Basketball Association. It is so easy, you don’t even have to be smarter than a fifth grader to do it (I have to give one of my favorite TV shows a free plug in a round about way). Speaking of the Jeff Foxworthy-hosted show on Fox, Friday’s at 8:00, my favorite question I have seen a contestant answer incorrectly was “What ocean is named after India”? Not quite as easy of question as “What state is named after the Mississippi River, but very close. The poor guy, I believe he was an accountant from Toledo, had used up all of his “lifelines” of help so he was stuck coming up with the answer himself. After a considerable amount of thinking coupled with stammering, he responded with “the Bay of Bombay”. How would you like that guy doing your taxes?

Regarding the NBA handicapping article, I had some readers question me if this simplistic method I wrote about was also good for handicapping college basketball games. If you didn’t see the article, the basic premise was to place your bets on teams with winning straight-up records as compared to losing teams. There was a distinct correlation of cashing tickets by sticking to teams with the better straight-up record and staying away from the bottom dwellers.

In college hoops, with having over 200 regularly lined-teams playing 25 to 40 games a season, I went about looking at this methodology a little differently than how I did it for the NBA with its 30 teams. I wanted to keep it very basic but needed to keep the qualifying data set somewhat small.

I felt a good way to reduce risk would be to take a look at teams who have covered the point spread at a good rate over each of the past four years and see if I can uncover any gems that will help me win. While I do believe in longer-term views as for uncovering trends and tendencies, I do also believe that each sport evolves and changes from year to year.

I went to the StatFox website where they have the best collection and history of college basketball statistics that I have ever seen available on the Internet. If you have never been to the StatFox website and you love statistics, you will be making this site a regular stop when you see what’s available. And, even more importantly, the numbers are sortable. They don’t just put up the top 25 or the top fifty in a category, they have all lined teams with virtually any statistic you would want to follow. Statfox.com is one of the best tools any handicapper can utilize no matter what sport they are handicapping. And the greatest thing about it, the StatFox site is entirely free!

I went to the team report page and sorted the teams by their ATS winning percentage. I eliminated teams that did not play a full season of lined games, ones with a point spread every week. You often have a Texas State or Alcorn State that plays just a few lined games against large non-conference schools every year. There is no point in having their statistics skew the results.

I then looked at teams that covered the point spread at least 60% of the time for the entire season. I did this for the past four years. There were a total of 134 teams that qualified at that rate. The number each year was very constant, between 30 and 36 each year. In 2004-05, of the 34 teams on the 60% list, 25 had winning records and nine had a season below .500, then a 28-6 mark in 2005-06 of over .500 teams, and followed by a 30-6 tally for the 2006-07 season. Last year there was a drop-off to only 30 teams total that had an ATS record of 60% or better. Of those 30teams, 23 had winning records. The total for all four years was 28 teams out of 134, just 20.9%, had losing records but still covered 60% or better of their games against the number.
We have talked about betting on teams that win straight-up at a good rate. How about finding teams to bet against? Let’s go back four seasons and see what we can find.

I looked at teams that did not cover at least 40% of their games for the season. Over the four years analyzed, 122 teams in total did not reach our Mendoza line. Of those 122 money-burning teams, only 26 of them had winning records for the season, a paltry 17.6%. Just like in betting on teams with winning records can help you be profitable in your wagering endeavors, betting against teams that have below .500 records can put money in your pocket, also.

Out of curiosity, I took another way to look at this concept. How do very high percentage winning teams do against the point spread? I trekked back to the StatFox team report page, sorted the teams by straight-up winning percentage each of the past four years. I looked at teams that won 75% or better of their games.

Would you believe that 85% of these high-quality teams had .500 or better ATS records? I was surprised the number would be that high. Combined over the four-year span, there were 107 teams that won 75% of their games. Again, these are only regularly-lined teams. Last year there were 27 qualifying squads with only 4 losing ATS marks. In the 2006-07 campaign, not one out of 24 teams had a losing ATS record and only one, Memphis, had a .500 mark covering the number. Three seasons ago it was 6 teams with a below .500 ATS out of 26 at 75% or better. And in 2005-06 saw 28 high-quality teams and just 6 with losing ATS tallies.

Granted, nobody can see in the future to know with 100% accuracy what teams are going to win 75%+ of their games, or for that matter, even have a winning or losing year. However, at this time of the season you should have a very good idea of teams with that potential.

In trying to come up with things that could sink this generalized method of handicapping, my first thought was how do “public teams” do ATS. These are teams with a strong national following, sterling reputation, and who are usually high-quality teams winning year after year. Last year I looked at what I consider the top five “public teams”: North Carolina, Duke, Kansas, UCLA, and Kentucky.

I could find nothing over the past several years that uncovered a high degree of point spread profits betting against them. Last year all five teams had winning ATS scores combining for a 98-70 mark, 58.3%. In fact, I unearthed more profitable spots than negative ones, such as North Carolina since 2000 is 55-24, 69.6 %, as a home double-digit favorite below 30 points.

Well, need to run. My favorite television show is starting. Tonight’s contestant is a dentist from Denver. I want to see how he does in Fifth Grade American History.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority is frequent contributor.

Seven Betting Days until Christmas

Finally got nailed with a losing day (1-2) as our string of perfect trends ended, thus we had to find one and did in the NHL tonight. Today’s Top System is scintillating 88.9 percent winner and involves college basketball totals. Kendall isn’t losing, this is why he gets to stick around with his Free Play. For those that frequent this location, they know Kendall is having sensational NFL season. He is passing on tonight’s contest, initially favoring the Colts, but with all the injuries is waiting for better chance to win. Good Luck.

I’d like to mention to all readers, this isn’t just an information blog, it is a shared information blog. Some of you respond when asked, that’s great, but you don’t have to be asked, just comment on anything you read. All we ask is not be profane, rather be clever, it shows greater intelligence. This is a shared experience, so share!

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY UNDER on all teams like Louisville where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points, after four straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after playing a game where both teams score 80 points or more. This system is sensational 24-3, 88.9 percent.

Free Hockey Trend -2) The Boston Bruins are 12-0 against the money line after having won two of their last three games this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Kendall of the Left Coast Connection has not lost in this spot in fours days (2-0-2) and likes Louisiana Tech to upset Samford outright.

Do the Jaguars Have Bite as a Home Underdog?

A year after winning a dozen games, including one in the postseason, and reaching the divisional round of the AFC playoffs, nobody predicted Jacksonville would fall so precipitously to 5-9 after beating Green Bay. Buried in last place in the AFC South, the Jaguars own poor numbers that reflect their position in the standings. The Jaguars are 20th in total offense, 17th in rushing defense, T-17th in sacks and a turnover ratio of minus-2.

Jacksonville (4-10 ATS), which split its first six games, has won just two of seven at home heading into this Thursday night game at Municipal Stadium. After topping Detroit, 31-21, the Colts have the longest current winning streak in the NFL—seven games—and are approaching their seventh straight trip to the playoffs.

The Jaguars have been chasing Indianapolis (10-4, 5-8-1 ATS) ever since the NFL went to its current division format in 2002 and pitted them as rivals in the AFC South. But that’s not to say these teams have been separated by a wide margin. Even though Jacksonville trails the all-time series, 11-4, all but five of the matchups have been decided by a touchdown or fewer, with the Jaguars 9-3-1 ATS in last dozen meetings.

Indianapolis is one of five teams the Jaguars have beaten this season. It happened in Week 3 at Lucas Oil Stadium. Fred Taylor, who two weeks ago passed O.J. Simpson on the all-time rushing list, moving into 16th place, rushed for 121 yards and Maurice Jones-Drew added 107 yards and a touchdown to lead Jacksonville to a 23-21 victory in one of their highlight victories of the season. Quarterback David Garrard completed 16 of 22 passes for 167 yards.

The Colts knocked Garrard out of the first of two meetings a year ago when they rolled to an easy 29-7 victory in Week 7 as three-point road favorites. Garrard left in the second quarter with an ankle injury and former backup Quinn Gray was picked off twice and held to 56 yards passing on 24 attempts. Seven weeks later, a healthy Garrard (257 yards, two touchdowns) and Peyton Manning (288, 4 TDs) hooked up in an old-fashioned shootout also won by Indianapolis, 28-25, failing to cover the touchdown favorite role.

Both Garrard and head coach Jack Del Rio received hefty offseason contracts, and neither has delivered in the first year of the deal. Just last week Garrard eclipsed 3,000 yards and has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 13-to-10, and Del Rio has been unable to keep problems from spilling out of the locker room.

For the most part, the Colts bring out the best in the Jaguars. Typically they give a great effort and Jacksonville is 8-2 ATS as December dogs against AFC South foes. It will be interesting to see if the Jags use a similar offensive game plan as last week, using tight ends in short passing game and throwing deeper passes to Dennis Northcutt, who had first 100-yard receiving game in four years last week. Jacksonville has not covered consecutive games since weeks 15 and 16 last season.

Bookmaker.com has the Colts as six-point pick, with the total lodged at 44. Indianapolis is 8-2 ATS as road favorite of six or less with revenge, plus 14-3 against the spread after two straight wins by 10 or more points.

Normally at this time, Indy has wrapped up division and is healing injuries for playoffs. Not this year and despite the Jaguars record, this will be good test for Colts run defense, which appears improved, however facing Cleveland, Cincinnati and Detroit might be a bigger reason why they look better. Amazingly, Tony Dungy’s club is only 1-10 ATS versus weaker defensive teams allowing 5.65 or more yards per play.

This will be the final Thursday night telecast on the NFL Network for this season, which will start at usual 8:15 Eastern time. This series is like Charley Brown and Lucy, with Jacksonville being the underdog for the 16th time in a row facing the Colts.

A Hump Day of Betting Action

That’s what we’ve been looking for, a 3-0 day Tuesday and we are 7-0-2 the last three days. Kendall of the LLC had sharp winner on Houston last night and offers another Free Play. Today’s Top Trend isn’t perfect but awfully close at 13-1 in college hoops. The Best Basketball System on the planet for Wednesday in the NBA is 84.6 ATS, with a different viewpoint. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home favorites like Detroit after a win by six points or less against opponent after trailing their last two games by 10+ points at the half. Since 2004 this system is 22-4 ATS, 84.6 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) N. C. State is 1-13 ATS after playing a game as an underdog over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Kendall of the Left Coast Connection has not lost in this spot in three days (granted 2 pushes) and likes UTEP to take down Texas Tech.

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Don’t Go Bowling for Fun – Execute to Win

All the bowl games are set with a wide spectrum of choices for fans and bettors alike. With 34 choices spread out over 20 days, it is very easy to get caught up in having the desire to wager on every game. What anyone does is their business, however it is wise to take a step back and take this all in. One of the real advantages for bettors in this position is time, so make sure not to waste it.

It is best to start with fundamental handicapping to establish a base. Here is where you break apart what a team has done running and passing the ball and stopping the run and the pass. When doing this it is best to use the overall statistics as a snap shot and not have it become the whole picture. The reason is every team is essentially different in some aspects from what they were in September. Thus it is important to understand how any team has played from November until the end of the season. Along the same lines it is also wise to use the numbers for how a team played on the road. Here is a simple exercise you can do to seek strengths or weaknesses among the 68 teams competing in the bowl game. Using Excel spreadsheet or the trusty paper and pencil, put the match-ups together using the following categories, seeking the national rankings 1-119 and make sure to leave a column open next to number used:

*Yards rushing
*Points per game
*Total yards per game
*Yards passing
*Yards per point

Remember, defense may win championships, but offense wins bowl games. After you have completed this, next fill in how these various teams have performed on the road (Hawaii being only true exception) right next numbers you previously listed. The point of this is to find out how teams perform on the road compared to playing all games. If you find real disparity, now you have the makings of a fundamental difference in how a team plays and this should be duly noted. Repeat the process for defensive numbers.

The reason I listed running yards first, is I feel it is the single most important number in fundamental handicapping for bowl games. Being able to run the ball or stop the run is about desire and goes to the very core of the game. The minimum layoff any team will have is Navy, who is playing just two weeks after last game and Ohio State will once again have the longest layoff, having last played on December 22. To execute the passing game, timing and repetitiveness are the most important factors. With these types of layoffs, it is easy to get stale no matter how hard you practice, as game speed is far different than practice. The running game is about getting off the ball and knocking somebody down and a runner willing to hit the hole with abandon. Of course skill is required; however a rough and tumble attitude will carry a team a long way.

While throwing out words like desire and attitude, this is another large component in looking at bowl match-ups. What teams are excited to go to a bowl game and what teams are “settling” for the bowl experience?

Wake Forest ended up with just a 7-5 season and a revenge game would seem to be a motivator having lost to Navy already this season, but if you didn’t respect them the first time, why would the Demon Deacons now? South Florida plays in the new St. Petersburg Bowl, not far from home, but is that enough of a reason to be charged up after losing four of last five contests facing 6-6 Memphis? Other teams that could be flat emotionally are Missouri off two bad losses, LSU with three straight defeats and a national championship plays in the Chick-fil-A Bowl in a virtual home game for Georgia Tech. Can Texas Tech and Alabama overcome initial losses late in the season and beat hungry quality opponents?

Other schools might be genuinely excited about bowl assignments. Arizona will have first bowl experience in a decade and not that far from home in Las Vegas. California closed the season with 4-2 record and plays in nearby San Francisco against Miami-Fl, who lost last games and might bring 50 fans plus alum that live in the Bay Area. Rice will charged up, playing in home city at the Texas Bowl and having just second bowl experience since 1949. Mississippi goes bowling for the first time since 2003 at the Cotton Bowl and Cincinnati plays in first major bowl game in school history as Big East champions.

Another factor to consider is strength of a conference. This year, much like the national scene, it was hard to pick a clear conference or two that stood above the rest. The SEC always gets all the love, but beyond Florida and Alabama, clear weaknesses were exposed in and out of conference play. In fact five of the other six teams from this league are underdogs in their respective games. The Big 12 was all over prime time having unprecedented talent at the quarterback position, including Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford and runner-up Colt McCoy. The conference ended up with five of the top nine scoring teams in the country, which also means we all will find how good or bad those defenses were against teams from other leagues. The Big East was bullied in non-conference play and is unlikely to draw much action from bettors. The Big East was actually rated ahead of the Pac-10 in the Sagarin ratings; however that takes into consideration all teams in the league. The Big East had Syracuse to drop their rating, while the Pac-10 had the twin Washington universities to lower there figures. Studying the lines, the lowly Pac-10 is favored in four of their five bowl games and the only underdog is Oregon, who scores 155 points in last three outings.

The Big Ten secured seven slots, mostly because they travel well to get out of bad weather and only Iowa is presently listed as favorite among the group. If you want a shocker, try this on, the aforementioned Sagarin Ratings have the ACC as the top conference in the country. That is a crazy notion, considering they sent the team with the worst record (9-4) Virginia Tech to a BCS Bowl. Nonetheless, the ACC had the best non-conference record among all leagues and is favored in five of its nine post-season conflicts.

One league you will see a great deal is Conference USA, with six teams, likely assuring five or six Over plays on the total, being an offense first – defense second, football conference. The Mountain West Conference had one of their better years in recent memory, with three teams going being Top 25 material most of the season, with 12-0 Utah the strongest. Of the five teams invited to play ball, only TCU is a favorite in the Poinsettia Bowl.

Other points to consider are quarterback play. All the Big 12 teams will have a leg up in this area, being superior in this category. As it turns out, that is among the reasons why the SEC has so many underdogs this bowl season. Rice with Chase Clement, Rutgers with Mike Teel and Nevada with Colin Kaepernick, all deserve an extra look, because these quarterbacks have proven themselves all season. Conversely, expecting Miami-Fl, Maryland and Connecticut to come from behind should they trail by 10 points in their games might be asking too much.

Another point to follow is betting strategy. Most bettors prefer favorites, and a select group will love to play underdogs, both strategies are flawed. The bowls are essentially no different than the regular season. In the last three years of bowl games, the straight up winner is 70-20-2 against the spread, winning 77.7 percent of the time. This points to the simplest and at the same time most complex answer- determine the winner of the game and the money will come to you.

Lastly check out websites relating to the teams in specific games about two weeks prior to the bowl. From informational standpoint, the investigative handicapper can often find nuggets relating to the goals of a coach in a bowl game. If the game is a reward for the season, sometimes those teams come in loose and unfocused. If a coach like say Brian Kelly of Cincinnati is in charge, he is all about demands and pushing his team and will likely have them more focused.

If you have had good, bad or great season in wagering on college football, utilize the time wisely and finish the season with a flourish, loaded with the right information.

Tuesday's Best Bets and Quick Look at MNF Total

Well this is a first, two straight 2-0-1 days at 3Daily Winners. I saw the trend of bettors taking the total upward on the Monday night affair and bet the Under 40 points. In all honesty it was probably fitting the game Pushed, because those on either side had two very lucky or unlucky breaks forcing the outcome. One of the wackier totals games of the year.

A rather thin sports card has us turning attention to the NHL for today’s Best System that is an 82.7 percent winner. Very curious about the outcome, as a number of notable hockey cappers are on the other side. The Perfect Trends have been perfect lately and we have another in the NBA. Good Luck.

Free Hockey System-1) PLAY AGAINST road teams like New Jersey when the money line is -100 to -150, revenging a loss where opponent scored five or more goals, off a home loss by two goals or more. This super system has delivered winners 24 of the last 29 times in the last 10 seasons, including 2-0 this year.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Charlotte Bobcats are 10-0 ATS in home games after a game with five or less offensive rebounds.

Free Basketball Selection -3)Kendall is off two Pushes in the NFL and says take Houston in the NBA tonight.

2008-09 Bowl Handicapping Guide

Some may call this shilling, I'm going with if you want to win big this bowl season, you should purchase a copy of this 2008-09 Bowl Handicapping Guide from StatFox. It should be noted I was not asked to do this, I'm doing it because it's a very good product, packed with relevant information to help you win.

The 2008-09 StatFox Bowl Game Handicapping Guide can be ordered either a hard copy or the PDF version will be in your e-mail boxes shortly. If you haven't ordered one yet, I'd certainly recommend it. Yours truly has written a great deal of information for this superb publication and in fact I'll have an article I write wrote tomorrow right here. To receive a hard copy, you MUST have your order placed by Wednesday Dec.17, 12 PM CT. Call 1.888.578.2836 and ask for Steve. Otherwise order online by clicking here, you will be pleased.

Here is a sample:

ACC
The Atlantic Coast Conference will have a record 10 teams playing in the postseason with five teams in the favorite slot. Two others, Maryland and North Carolina are in pick em’ spreads, and the three remaining teams are underdogs. League champion Virginia Tech plays in the highlight game vs. Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl. Be sure to note the trends below regarding the ACC’s success or lack thereof when favored or getting points. According to past records versus other conferences, North Carolina, Miami, NC State, and Virginia Tech would be “play on” teams while Boston College and Georgia Tech would be in fade spots.


Underdogs have been the flavor of choice in ACC bowl games recently, going just 10-15 SU but 18-7 ATS (72%) in the L25 games. Over the L2 seasons, that dog record is 12-4 ATS (75%).

ACC teams have made for lousy bowl game favorites, going just 6-7 SU & 3-10 ATS (23%) as chalk since 12/29/05.

Against non-BCS conferences, the ACC has stumbled to a 5-4 SU & 3-5-1 ATS (38%) record since ‘98, all as favorites. Versus other BCS conferences, the ACC has been overwhelmed to the tune of a 2-8 SU & 3-6-1 ATS (33%) record in its L10.

The ACC has enjoyed bowl game success vs. the Big East (9-4 SU & 10-3 ATS) and the Pac 10 (5-1 SU & ATS). However, against the SEC, the ACC has been awful, 4-16 SU & 5-13-2 ATS (28%).

Does Sean Avery Deserve a Break?

Sticks and stones may break my bones but words will never hurt me. Unfortunately for the cantankerous Dallas Stars forward Sean Avery, the playground proverb did not hold up in the NHL court of conduct.

Two weeks ago prior to a game against Calgary, Commissioner Gary Bettman cold-cocked Avery with a six-game suspension after making “comments detrimental to the league” regarding his ex-girlfriends and fellow hockey players.

Here is Avery’s statement in its entirety: “I'm really happy to be back in Calgary; I love Canada. I just want to comment on how it's become like a common thing in the NHL for guys to fall in love with my sloppy seconds. I don't know what that's about, but enjoy the game tonight.”

The 28-year old Avery, who just signed a four-year 15.5 million dollar contract with Dallas, offered “building excitement” for the game that evening as his alibi. Hollywood actress Elisha Cuthbert is Avery’s old flame and is currently dating Calgary defenseman Dion Phaneuf.

Sounds about right to me…one hockey player talking trash about his opponent’s girlfriend in hopes of getting into his head and getting a rise out of him for some quality entertainment? Isn’t that why hockey fans go to games anyway? To watch these men on skates beat each other’s brains out? And they walk away disappointed if the gloves don’t drop at least once a night.

I am not trying to defend that what Sean Avery said was copacetic. His remarks were off-color and no professional athlete should leverage his status to speak in a derogative manner toward anyone – especially women. These guys are privileged to be playing sports for millions of dollars and most don’t possess the intelligence to make a comment without offending someone so they should keep their mouths shut.

But I am going to argue that Avery’s punishment was not reasonable.

Let’s examine a couple of the most recent suspensions handed out in the National Hockey League. On November 14, New York Islanders defenseman Thomas Pock was banned five games for an ill-advised elbow to the head of Ottawa Senators forward Ryan Shannon. The blow concussed Shannon and he does not recall the incident. Days later, a two-game suspension was placed on the New Jersey Devils Mike Mottau for a hit that put his victim out of commission for 12 weeks with head and leg injuries.

These guys do a lot more than talking on the ice and the sticks they use do break bones. But Sean Avery gets six games for two words?

Precedent set in a league surrounded in criminal turmoil seems to be even softer. Kansas City Chiefs running back Larry Johnson slaps a woman in the face at a bar and only got suspended a single game. Matt Jones of the Jacksonville Jaguars got caught cutting up lines of cocaine with a Wal-Mart card in a parking lot and is disciplined with a three-game banishment.

Did Sean Avery carry a weapon into a public setting, did he physically attack another person or test positive for any kind of illegal drug? No. In an attempt to possibly be humorous, he made a remark about his former love affairs.

What happened to freedom of speech in this country?

Plus, it isn’t like this is the first time (or last) a celebrity has made her way around NHL locker rooms. Remember Anna Kournikova? I’m sure there was worse said about her among the hockey sewing circles, maybe just not publicly.

In 2004 the outspoken wife of MLB pitcher Kris Benson told Howard Stern on his radio show that if her hubby was ever unfaithful to her and got caught, she would have sex with the entire Mets team – including the bat boys. Anna Benson’s remarks were not crude but amusing. Probably not something you want the kids to overhear, much like Avery’s, but not much different than something they might encounter on late night cable.

Avery’s first game eligible to return from suspension would be tonight against the Phoenix Coyotes but he won’t be in the Dallas Stars locker room come game time.

As of Sunday, the organization has decided to part ways with Avery. Details of Avery’s termination are still up in the air but the Stars could trade him (if any teams have interest), send him to the minor leagues or buy out his contract next summer.

Since entering the league in 2001, Sean Avery has quickly become what Dennis Rodman was to the NBA during his tenure. An agitator, the most-hated player in hockey and some have even called him an embarrassment to the sport.

Avery is currently dealing with his personal problems. In addition to the six-game suspension, Avery was requested to enter a 10-day anger counseling and treatment program where he is addressing his “who gives a crap” attitude.

But the NHL and Commissioner Bettman crossed the blue line of injustice while handling this matter.

Forget about the six games without pay, they might have cost an athlete his future in professional hockey. Many, many athletes have done far worse and have received far less in terms of punishment.

I think he deserves another chance. After all of this, maybe Sean Avery has learned to clean up some of his own sloppiness.


Scott Cooley is a freelance write and make contributions at 3Daily Winners and other locales. If you agree or disagree let Scott know here.

Going After it Hard with Monday Wagering Action

A tie may be like kissing your sister, but every gambler knows it’s better than a loss, as we finished 2-0-1 yesterday in the NFL. This Monday we have the Denver in a tremendous system that is great against the spread and on the money line. The Top Trend is perfect once again, looking in on a bad NBA defensive club. Kendall of the LLC pushed here yesterday, but had a super day overall in the NFL and has a play for tonight. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON teams when the line is +3 to -3, who are a higher scoring offensive team, averaging 102 or more points a game, against a good offensive team averaging 98-102 PPG, after a win by 10 points or more. The Denver Nuggets are the team that fits this system that is 26-4 ATS, 86.7 percent, with the outright winner 24-6!

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Golden State Warriors are 0-7 ATS after allowing 105 or more points in consecutive games.

Free Football Selection -3) Kendall of the Left Coast Connection was as good as anyone yesterday, with 3-0-1 record, raising his NFL record to 41-21-1, 66.1 percent. He pushed here at 3Daily Winners with Atlanta and is playing the UNDER this Monday night in Philly.

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Are you Trusting 3rd String Cleveland QB to Cover?

Since it’s the season for giving, perhaps Philadelphia Eagles should send a package to Cleveland quarterback Ken Dorsey in anticipation of this Sunday’s matchup at Lincoln Financial Field—the biggest bottle of Advil money can buy. Sacked just once, but on the run more than Lincoln Burrows from Fox’s Prison Break, Dorsey completed 22 of 43 passes for 150 yards and one interception in the 28-9 loss last week at Tennessee.

It was his first start since 2005, and more of the same pressure can be expected when the Browns visit the City of Brotherly Love for their third Monday Night game of the year. Philadelphia (7-5-1, 8-5 ATS), coming off a 20-14 road win over the Giants, is just 2-2-1 in the last five games and trying to hang on in the NFC playoff race. What better way to stay on a roll than by beating up on a Cleveland (4-9, 6-6-1 ATS) franchise that’s lost two quarterbacks to season-ending injuries in the last three games and has one win since Halloween?

Defensive coordinator Jim Johnson loves to dial up blitzes from every angle, and the rusty Dorsey will find himself under attack from the rush of Eagles, who are 8-1 ATS off a division game over the last two seasons.

Jamal Lewis is averaging a mere 3.53 yards per carry, and the world should be using Braylon Edwards blood to stop sickness, since he couldn’t catch a cold, let alone a pass this season. He’s dropped nearly half of the attempts thrown his way and has just 45 receptions. The Browns are just 10-22 ATS versus good rushing defenses allowing 3.5 or less rushing yards a carry.

The explosion has been missing from the Cleveland offense (21 points in the last three games), save for Brady Quinn’s first two NFL starts, and expecting it to return in Philadelphia with a third-string quarterback is a bigger longshot than the elves dropping off a 50-inch plasma TV.

Donovan McNabb’s bounced back since his benching in Baltimore, throwing for 451 yards and five touchdowns in two games, but more importantly not a single interception. The real trigger to the offense, however, isn’t McNabb but Brian Westbrook, and he has 333 total yards and six scores of his own since the debacle in Baltimore. The Eagles are 13-4 ATS at home vs. passing defenses permitting a completion percentage of 61 percent or worse in the second half of the season.

The Browns defense, led by D’Qwell Jackson’s 130 tackles, has limited the high-powered Texans, Colts and Titans to just 54 combined points and lost to them all. The defeats are more of a direct reflection of the offense’s struggles at the quarterback position, than any shortcoming on defense most of the time.

Bookmaker.com has Philadelphia as 14-point favorite with a total of 39. This could be difficult number for the Eagles to overcome, given they are 14-5 UNDER as a home favorite since 2006. Double digit home favorites are just 8-14 ATS this season.

Cleveland covers if they go for broke and play smart. Utilize running back Jerome Harrison with Jamal Lewis in the backfield to keep the Eagles defense guessing. Harrison is electrifying runner with a seam and Lewis can lay the lumber to the defensive front. The Cleveland coaches have to set up Dorsey for success with short passes on quick reads, otherwise hello Advil. The Browns secondary gives WAY too much cushion to receivers. The Philly contingent of pass-grabbers is good, certainly not great, play tighter, what do you have to lose as two touchdown underdogs? Cleveland is 7-0 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.

Philadelphia covers if they remember they are still in the playoff hunt and the Washington and Dallas are too be played no matter what, focus on this contest, the others will follow. Good teams punish bad teams by taking them out of the game. The Eagles have rushed 81 times in the past two games, the most ever under coach Andy Reid in a two-game span, and came out with victories and covers each time. Man up the Browns shaky receivers and organize a sack party in the Cleveland backfield.

This week’s Monday Night system is to play on favorites like the Eagles, off a win against a division rival, when playing football on the first day of a new work week. This system is 30-10 ATS, 75 percent the last decade.

Free NFL Betting Info- Week 15

Many friends of 3Daily Winners including myself got there rear-end handed to them yesterday. It was one of those days you are just thankful it’s December and a long basketball season still awaits. By comparison, 1-2 here for Saturday looks pretty good compared to some of the numbers I saw. Kendall from the LLC returns and is still having a very good NFL season and offers his Best Play for Free. The impossible to figure Denver Broncos are featured in today’s Top Trend. The best NFL System available today is an unlikely team and is 86.1 percent Winner. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the second half of the season. This sweet sounding system is 31-5 ATS, 86.1 percent over a 25-year period, including 2-0 in 2008. The team to consider is the Seattle Seahawks.

Free Football Trend -2) The Denver Broncos are is 1-14 ATS after gaining six or more yards a play in their previous game over the last two seasons.

Free Football Selection -3) Kendall of the Left Coast Connection did cool off from his amazing 17-2 NFL start and is 38-21, 64.4 percent current for the year. He’s started to heat up again with 5-0 record last week and is on Atlanta this week.

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Betting Keys to Five Key NFL Games in Week 15

The regular season is winding down and so are the remaining opportunities to keep winning wagers in the NFL. The NFC South has three of its teams involved in crucial contests, which will be critical to who ends at the top of the division and who makes the playoffs. The New York Jets have been grounded with a pair of defeats and will attempt to take flight again and keep share of the division lead versus AFC East rival Buffalo. Arizona won first division title since Bruce Springsteen released instant classic ‘Born to Run” album and now have to deal with celebrity and how to prepare for postseason and teams on the remainder schedule like Minnesota. Finally, Pittsburgh and Baltimore renew un-pleasantries, with extra ambulances and doctors on call. Bookmaker.com provides the Week 15 numbers.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (Falcons -3, 44.5)

It’s inconceivable the Tampa Bay defense will be steamrolled a second straight time, even facing Michael Turner. Similar to Carolina, Atlanta prefers to move the chains and try a few deep balls. The Buccaneers defense has to control third downs or it could be another tough road loss. On offense Garcia needs more help from offensive line, to start running game and play-action passing. The Bucs are 11-4-1 ATS in recent battles. Atlanta leads the league in first quarter points with 94. This shows excellent planning and execution and home keeps the crowd in the game. The Falcons defense has to do better job against the run, permitting 123.4 yards a game the last five weeks. Make Tampa Bay one dimensional, which frees up John Abraham to rush Jeff Garcia. If Roddy White catches three long passes, good chance the favorite moves to 16-5-1 ATS in this southern showdown.

Buffalo at N.Y. Jets (Jets -7.5, 41)

Brett Favre has to load up on Red Bull or some energy drink, as once again his play is noticeably slipping late in the season. Opposing teams have devised ways to take away deep ball from Jets, with no burners and the secondary has more holes than Dunkin Donuts without a pass rush. When New York had five game winning streak, they scored on first possession, put the right plays together to make that happen again. Buffalo players are wondering why offensive coordinator Turk Schonert has gotten so pass happy, especially with two quarterbacks with limited ability in that persuasion. The Bills work better running the pigskin and blending the pass. Buffalo has covered seven of last 10, the defense will need to win field position battle and force two or more miscues.

Denver at Carolina (Panthers -7.5, 48)

Mike Shanahan’s team has been impossible to figure, however they might bloviate having the opportunity to attack Carolina corners with Jay Cutler tossing the ball, after seeing how open Tampa Bay receivers were down the field. By now the Broncos don’t worry whose running, with turnstile efforts this season. Carolina can be run on. Denver has actually been better against the run with 4-3 setup and safety near the line of scrimmage. If they fail to stop Panthers back, Broncos drop to 1-9 ATS in December after a pair of wins and covers. This is Carolina’s last home game and NFC South teams are 23-2, 18-6-1 ATS at home in 2008. Off the huge win last Monday, a drop in intensity would wipe out potential importance of Giants game next week. John Fox’s squad can control the line of scrimmage on both sides in this matchup and bludgeon Broncos with Steve Smith down the field.

Minnesota at Arizona (Cardinals -3, 47)

Tavaris Jackson will get the call for the Vikes who want him to play like he did last week in relief of Frerotte. If Arizona could, they would wear Detroit helmets, as Adrian Peterson has five fumbles against the Lions this season. Peterson knows he has to secure the ball better, with Cardinals swooping in to swipe the ball away. The Vikings run of the mill secondary will need Jared Allen and others to rattle Warner. The Cardinals will want to improve certain areas before playoffs (does that sound odd), while keeping wins coming. Kurt Warner has eight turnovers in last four games, not acceptable. The running game has to rise to well below average instead of 32nd. A hundred yard effort against Minny would be big confidence boost. Play like a division champion at home against a visitor that is 2-6 ATS against teams with winning home records.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (Ravens -2.5, 34)

Pittsburgh is well renowned for playing with intensity, however this stage will have Baltimore stoked. The Steelers must match the Ravens and stop them at the point of attack when running the ball. Flacco was often confused last week, with Dick LeBeau calling the defense he’ll do whatever he can to the rookie to keep in same state of mind. Baltimore has to consistently win first and second down, Keeping Joe Flacco in manageable situations and Ben Roethlisberger in third and long. Baltimore will take stupid penalties when they are too juiced up, they must maintain poise and not give away free yards to Steelers. The Ravens are 10-2 ATS in home games after three or more consecutive wins.

First Big Saturday of College Basketball Betting

We move into Saturday off a 2-1 day, as Detroit was a three-pointer away from giving us a perfect day. The focus today will be college basketball on its first big Saturday and we have a Top System that rings up winners 80.6 percent of the time. Another perfect Trend is in place, having won a few in a row. Eric of the Left Coast Connection goes for his third straight winner. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who were a good team from last season like Ohio State, shooting 45 percent or higher, with a defense permitting 42 percent or less shots made this season, with just two starters returning from last year. The logic here is if a team is favored in this price range with not many returning players, they must be talented enough to cover the spread. This system is 25-6 ATS, 80.6 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Oregon State is 0-9 as a home underdog or pick over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Eric has been very strong in basketball and is taking UCLA to crush DePaul.

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Early Football Line Moves

The Early Line Moves segment of college football for the regular season has ended and it was quite a year. Last week in college football these plays were 1-2 on the sides and fabulous 5-0 in college totals. This makes season record 66-41-1, 61.6 percent on sides and 48-36, 57.1 percent on Totals in CFB. We will start for the bowl season, but my experience has been this is harder to determine because of the timing aspect. I talked to sharps that jump on numbers the day they are posted, however the vast majority wait about a week before the game and try to buy the market at what price they want. This makes the marketplace for these games more convoluted, when mixed in with others and the results vary from year to year.

In the NFL, there were no Sides plays, leaving the record at 13-12, 52 percent. On the Totals, a sparkling 3-1 record, making the updated figure 24-18-1, 57.1 percent. Enjoy reading and closely follow these numbers for wagering portfolio.

NFL Sides
Seattle -3 to -1 (Has gone back up since)
Baltimore Pick to -2
New England -8 to -6.5

NFL Totals
SF/ Miami 43 to 41.5
Buff/NYJ 43 to 41.5
SD/KC 48 to 46

Bowl Game Sides
TCU Pick to -2.5

Bowl Game Totals
TCU/Boise 48 to 46

That is all for the first seven bowl games.

College Hoops Wagering Options + Bonus

For the first time since last season, college basketball fans and bettors get to have their day, with very little competition on a Saturday other than Christmas shoppers being out and about. Basketball bettors will be walking past televisions to catch the occasional score; otherwise a very solid day of basketball action is on tap. Last year’s NCAA finalist’s Memphis and Kansas can both be seen, being very different squads from a last year’s overtime thriller. Indiana and Kentucky used to be a big game, not this season. Depending where you live, finding time to see Oklahoma’s talented Blake Griffin is a wise decision. You can visit a Free StatFox FoxSheet for the battle of the Queen City with Xavier and Cincinnati in the Crosstown Shootout. Look to Bookmaker.com to review the latest odds.

Memphis at Georgetown 2:00ET, CBS

Memphis (5-1, 4-2 ATS) looks to continue to build its pre-conference resume taking on Georgetown. The Tigers have missed Derrick Rose at the point (who wouldn’t) and are trying to work in freshman Wesley Witherspoon, who was handed the keys to the Tigers offense. Coach John Calipari tried to use Antonio Anderson; however he’s better suited as off-the-ball wing that can rebound and play reckless defense. It is evident at present this is not a good shooting team, behind 17-feet. These Tigers play best when running, shooting and crashing the boards. Memphis had final exams and is 8-2 ATS when playing with seven or more days rest.

Georgetown (6-1, 2-2 ATS) may lack the veteran leadership of last season, but something could be cookin’ in Hoya country with talented youngsters. Freshmen Greg Monroe and Jason Clark, as well as sophomore Chris Wright have contributed nicely with holdovers Jessie Sapp and DaJuan Summers. Coach John Thompson III wants this game as a great tune-up before the Big East wars start. Thompson knows what he will receive from Sapp and has to keep prodding Summers to be more diversified, by grabbing rebounds and not settling for jump shots. The Hoyas need to control tempo at a slower pace, since they are 5-17 ATS in home games when they allow 67 to 74 points in a game.

Think of this as an excellent measuring stick for both programs to determine where they are and where they are headed with conference play around the corner.

To review the rest of the games click here.

Only 13 Wagering Days before Christmas

Sometimes you just have to trust things and I was incorrect about yesterday’s system that led to 2-0 day here at 3Daily Winners. I was pleased it won but also pleased I passed on the game since I would have been displeased to have lost. We come back today with another sound System which is 80.4 percent and grinded out three winners this season. We uncovered another perfect Trend, this time in the NBA. Good Luck.

A thought for today, with 34 bowl games and countless sponsors, why hasn’t Campbell’s and Progresso stepped into the fray, it seems so natural. What guys don’t eat soup?

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home teams like the Detroit Pistons off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, playing with two days rest. These rested fellows are 45-11 ATS, 80.4 percent since 2004 and perfect 3-0 this season.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Minnesota Timberwolves are 0-12 ATS in home games revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Eric of the Left Coast Connection has Boston -7 as his top play in the NBA.

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It Pays to Know NBA Betting and Your State Capitals

I was on a radio station a couple of weeks ago to talk about betting on the National Basketball Association. The host of the show asked me a question which I am sure he wanted to receive a highly intelligent, insightful answer that would be enlightening to his listeners. We then could have an extended discussion going into great detail that would be quite informative.

The radio host asked me, “What is the secret to making money betting the NBA”? Perhaps he was looking for me to talk about predicting team wins using the bell curve method or employing individual player ratings to determine the outcome of key match-ups and how they will affect a game. Or maybe he was looking for a humorous response such as “have Tim Donaghy introduce you to a few of his referee friends”.

Considering his expectations, it was quite deflating to him when I answered, “just pick winners”. There was a pause on the other end as his brain was scrambling for ways he was going to fill twelve minutes of air time until the next commercial break. I assume he was determining whether I was being a smart aleck or if I was just a moron.

I wasn’t trying to be a jerk nor was I giving him a flippant answer. Actually, my response carries a lot of validity. It would have been more accurate if I worded it “bet on winning teams”, but I guess working a couple of summers in a theme park while going to school left me with a habit of giving offhand and glib remarks to thoughtless questions posed by tourists and now, obviously, radio hosts.

The radio interview continued with another dead spot or two. I did finally impress the radio guy when I told him I knew the capitals of all fifty states. He quickly quizzed me asking what was Vermont’s state capital? Not only did I correctly answer Montpelier, but I added the fun fact that with a population of under 9,000 people, it is the smallest capital city in the country. The interview ended with me trying to convince him that the state capital of West Virginia, Charleston, was named after a lively popular dance in the 1920’s.

Back to the initial point though…Let’s take a look at whether betting on winning teams has been profitable in the NBA. Is there a connection between teams winning straight-up and covering the point spread? Do teams that have a higher winning percentage cover the point spread more than teams that lose a fair amount of their games?

One thing about the NBA, as well as the NFL, you normally see many teams closer to .500 in ATS and in Over/Under stats than you do compared to their amateur cohorts. With much smaller leagues, 30 or 32 teams in pro hoops and pro football, and a much smaller degree of differences and variances in style of play, you get more standardization of results and margins.

In college sports you have a wide diversity in talent as well as styles. Depth on college teams is much thinner, in most cases, than it is at the professional level. There is not nearly the drop-off in talent between the first-string and the reserves on an NBA team as there is in, say, the Missouri Valley Conference. Injuries can decimate teams at the amateur level. Look at a team like the Houston Rockets. Last year they frequently played without one or even both of their stars, Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, due to injury. Houston still managed the sixth best record in the NBA winning 55 games in the regular season.

Last season in the NBA showed more of a gap between the top ten teams and the bottom ten squads. Each of the past three years the best team won right around 80% of their games straight up. Boston had the best record last year, Dallas in 2006-07, and before that it was Detroit. In the 2005-06 and 2006-07 campaigns, the tenth best record in the NBA regular season was 45-37, 54.9%. Last year Dallas had the tenth best winning percentage with a record of 51-31, 62.2%.

Looking for a correlation between straight-up winning and beating the number, last season the bottom ten teams in straight-up winning percentage contained seven of the ten worst point-spread covering teams. Not one team that finished in the top third in ATS% was in the bottom third in straight-up winning percentage.

The bottom ten teams combined regular season winning percentage was 250-570, 30.49%. Betting on those losing teams last season to win against the spread saw you only winning 44.06% of your wagers, 356-452.

Seven of the top ten teams who covered the point spread last year were also in the ten best overall winning teams. Only one team who was in the bottom third of the league in ATS%, Dallas, had the one of the top ten SU records.

The SU mark of the 2007-08 top ten teams was 561-269, 68.41%. Faithfully betting on these teams gave you a winning ATS slate of 56.07%. So last year, betting on the top ten teams with the best SU record was a very profitable venture.

One thing that you do have to remember is you have bad teams playing other bad teams as well as the top ten teams going against each other. Since there is a winner and a loser in every game, records will be padded on both sides at a .500 rate when a similar caliber team plays each other. I wanted to see if our results from last season, “just betting winners”, was being replicated this season. The quick answer was yes as six of the bottom ten teams against the spread are also in the bottom third of the straight-up winning percentage. Bad teams can cover as evidenced by the worst team in the league, Oklahoma City, 2-19 SU, being in the top ten in covering the number. Charlotte, one of the bottom SU teams, is also in the top ten in ATS records. The problem is these teams are few and far between.

On the contrary, of the ten best SU teams this season, six of those are also in the top ten for winning against the spread. Not one of the bad teams is in the top ten in covering the number.
The gap last year between very good and bad teams was assisted by having a couple of very bad teams. Two and three seasons ago, no team had below a 25% winning percentage. Last year two teams, Oklahoma City (Seattle) and Miami, finished below that mark winning 20 and 15 games respectively. This season is showing even a larger gap with amazingly seven teams with a 25% or lower winning percentage straight up.

In fact, the bottom ten teams right now are winning straight-up at a rate of 25.38%, 50-147, more than five percentage points below last years ten cellar dwellers. They are covering the point spread at a slightly worse pace than last year, 43.88%.

The top third winning teams this year have an impressive combined mark of 142-53, 72.82% SU. They are covering the oddsmaker’s line even better than last year, 57.51%, 111-82. A record which can’t stay this high is Cleveland’s 16-4, 80% ATS tally.

There are betting trends that come and go in sports wagering. A few years ago betting on favorites in the NFL was at an all-time best rate. This year NFL double-digit underdogs are money in the bank. Last year and this season have seen a very profitable NBA trend to just bet on the best ten teams as gauged by their straight-up record and to bet against the worst ten teams. If handicapping NBA games continues to be this easy, I will have a lot of free time on my hands. Maybe even enough time to visit Montpelier, VT, and see that impressive gold dome on the capital building.

Free lancewriter Jim Kruger is a sharp basketball handicapper and state capital expert, who has no idea what he had for lunch.

Betting Info for Dec.11

Good to have 2-1 day, though that 3-0 has been elusive. Anyways, the Top Trend was winner and looks at one of the more obscure teams in college basketball betting and they are in perfect 10-0 situation. I have to say, I can only think of one time since September I questioned if the Best System would win, today’s another. It’s hard to argue with 22-3 ATS, I hope I’m wrong. No Free Play from Eric today, who does offer NBA opinion, however have numbers on tonight’s NFL contest. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON road teams like the Bobcats, who are a poor offensive team (88-92 PPG) against a poor defensive team like Dallas (98-102 PPG), after allowing 105 points or more. The system has delivered the spread winner 22 of 25 times.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Weber State is 10-0 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last three seasons.

Free Selection -3) Eric of the Left Coast Connection gave us a solid winner, but doesn’t like anything that much and said he made a small wager on the Washington Wizards. The final tabulation on tonight’s NFL game from the LLC is Chicago-8 and New Orleans-6, with not one person playing the Total.

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Sports Wagering Knowledge for Wednesday

We settled for 2-2 Tuesday and look for bigger things on Hump Day. The Cleveland Cavaliers are featured in our Top Trend and did you know they have not only won and covered nine in a row, they have covered the spread by astonishing 9.3 points per game. WOW! The newest member of the LCC joins the fray and shares his Top Play. The Best System we could find in “only” 88.7 percent in college hoops. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON any team cold shooting team like Tulsa, after three straight games making 40% or less of their shots against opponent after two straight games - allowing a shooting percentage of 37% or less, like Missouri State has. Does 14-2 ATS, 87.5 percent work for you too?

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Cleveland Cavaliers are 15-2 ATS as a favorite this season, winning by better than 17 points a game.

Free Basketball Selection -3) One of the newest members of the Left Coast Connection is Eric, who only bets basketball and plays poker. He likes the value of Atlanta against San Antonio off double overtime win, being an older club.

Betting College Hoops Totals Successfully

There is more interest in college totals than there ever has been in the past. Many handicappers are finding it lucrative to bet whether a game will go Over or Under the lined total. As every season goes by, more and more sportsbooks are putting up totals on EVERY lined college basketball game. The liquidity in this market is thin compared to side bets and you can have movements of several points. Also, to combat sports bettors playing college totals, many books have a smaller limit on them and post their totals numbers much later in the day.

In handicapping college hoops totals, you need to determine which team is going to control the tempo. Normally, the home team will be the team who is most able to set a style of play. However, if the visitor is significantly superior, they can be the ones who dictate the overall tempo, especially if they jump out to a lead. Take the point spread into consideration. This is basically the linesmaker’s opinion of the relative strength of each team. How has a team/coach performed when they are double-digit favorites?

While some handicappers first look at how many points a team scores and allows on a per game average, I prefer examining the pace of the two teams involved. The pace is the calculated number of possessions a team has in a game on average. It does not mean the number of shots a team takes in a game. When you lose the ball due to a turnover, consider that a possession. Missing a shot and then getting an offensive rebound is another possession. Generally speaking, it is how fast a team gets up and down the floor coupled with how fast they shoot the ball.

When betting totals, you have to be willing to play the Under OR the Over. Just like in playing favorites or dogs, you are missing out on betting opportunities if you only consider betting one way or the other. Some people don’t even realize they are showing great favoritism to betting one way or the other. A friend of mine refuses to bet Unders. He is terrified of a game going into overtime and causing him to lose his bet with the added time and points being scored. When one accepts the fact that so small of percentage of games ever go into overtime, you realize it is a stupid fear to have.

Knowing the tendencies of a coach is very important. Some coaches will let the air out of the ball when they get a lead of even a small significance. They might be more prone to do this when their team is on the road at a hostile environment in a conference game.

Besides coaches, teams can have different personalities and levels of performance, especially depending upon whether they are playing at home or on the road. A more cautious, steady method of play can work its way into a team that is on the road. This habit can increase as the season proceeds, especially if they have had a bad experience or two in games that resulted in tough, close losses. All of a sudden, players become hesitant to take shots in close or big games.

The visiting team is in an arena they don’t see very often, once a year perhaps if it is a conference game. In a non-conference game, it might be the first time ever playing in a venue. Players’ familiarity to the depth behind the basket, the lines of vision inside the arena, what the crowd is like, all can put a lid on the basket.

I don’t like to bet Overs when a team relies heavily on one player to score a lot of points in games. What if that player has an off night or has a defensive stopper put on him that is extremely effective? You then have to count on other players to perform a duty, score points, they aren’t accustomed to or comfortable in doing.

When you have a team with one or two players who score a large proportion of a team’s points, look at how efficient the scorers are, how many possessions in a game do they take? A player with a 22 points per game scoring average is fine, but if he is taking 40% of a team’s possessions to score those again you can see an Under happening, as well as a loss, if that player is not performing adequately.

Look at the range of total that a team normally plays at. If they are usually lined in the mid 130’s and then have to play a much faster team and now have a lined total in the upper 140’s or even 150’s, how will team respond? Do they have the athletes and the depth to play at a fast pace? Many times slower paced teams become even slower when facing a superior team.

It pays to know a team’s offense and its overall efficiency. Teams are harder to defend if they have an outside and inside scoring presence. They are less likely to have a scoring drought. You have to be cognizant that if teams that like to fast break frequently are playing a very good rebounding team, their opportunities to run the break could be limited. To make up for a lack of rebounding, many teams will send four or even five players to the defensive glass.

If a team relies heavily on the three-point shot, how good is their opponent at guarding beyond the arc? If a team is a poor outside shooting team, does the opposing team play a good zone defense challenging the foe to shoot from outside? Teams with below average guard play and ball handling skills can be limited offensively to good pressure teams like Tennessee.

A team’s offensive free throw rate, how many free throws are made to field goals attempted, can be a valuable number to know, especially when it is a high number such as Xavier’s or Marquette’s this year. If they are playing a team that fouls frequently, one with a high defensive free throw rate, an opponent’s free throw attempts divided by their number of field goal attempts, this factor can be even more important. Southern Illinois and Central Michigan are both fouling a high-percentage of the time this year. That can be magnified more if the team that gets to the line a lot is playing at home versus the team that fouls frequently. Yes, there definitely can be “home cooking” when it comes to a ref blowing his whistle.

Once conference play begins, games can be much more intense. Familiarity in an opponent’s style, players, and even plays can make it more difficult for teams to score. Also, you can’t rely on a team’s points per game average that they have achieved in non-conference action as many of those games were played against smaller schools with lesser athletes. Offensive and defensive game averages can be out of whack significantly compared to a team’s conference averages. Look at previous year’s conference-only statistics to get a better idea of how teams perform in league play.

To increase your abilities to successfully handicap college basketball totals, you should watch a lot of games and read a lot of game recaps. Since there is such an extreme multitude of teams, you need to either focus on a few conferences or teams or keep very good notes and stats. I prefer to use an electronic notebook where I can continue putting notes in from year to year. If there is a coaching change, I have valuable information on how the coach performed at a previous school or the tendencies of the coach he worked for.

The basic creed for winning betting college hoops totals is to know thy teams.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority is noted basketball expert.

Tuesday's Best + Updated Monitored Results

Another impressive 2-1 day at 3Daily Winners. Everyone talks about wanting to follow the hottest handicapper or getting the best information. Honestly haven’t had time to sit down and track our system, trend and free picks of late, but if you are regular, you already know what kind of money you are making just following this simple material. In addition, email followers are also doing quite well signing for my personal picks, which are emailed to those who sign up. Plus our monitored plays speak for themselves.

Free Sports Monitor #1 NFL
Free Sports Monitor #4 CBB and NBA
Free Sports Monitor #3 Last 30 days
The Sports Eye #1 NFL
The Sports Eye # 5 CFB
The Sports Eye #2 NBA and CBB
Cappers Watchdog #6 or higher in every sport

Myself and the rest of those involved understand everything can change quickly, but the fact remains it hasn’t, thus this is where you should be to pick up winning information, everyday.

Today we have a great angle to follow that is has won 14 of 15 times following this ACC club. Today’s Best System has won 80 percent of the time since 1996 and should be looked over. Paul Buck is on a nice streak of 67 percent the last week and has his top college basketball play. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST any team off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog against opponent off an upset loss of 10 points or more as a road favorite. This 28-7 ATS system yields two plays against teams, Atlanta and Washington in the NBA. A word of caution on the Hawks however, with no T-Mac for Houston.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Virginia Tech is 1-14 ATS at road when the line is +3 to -3 the last 11 years.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Paul Buck had Carolina as his big play yesterday and is riding Villanova as his Best Bet in college hoops tonight.

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Looking in Rearview Mirror in the NFL

For those that watched that the Dallas and Pittsburgh contest, with nearly the intensity as same Samuel Louis Charles of North Miami Beach, Fla., (he won a cool million on ESPN's Streak For The Cash game with Steelers triumph) you had to be struck by several key factors. This whole Dallas meltdown deal is taking on a life of its own. For those not familiar, the Cowboys are 18-37 in their last 55 December/January games, with an even worse 15-39-1 ATS record. For Dallas backers and I know there is a whole bunch of you, this makes them among the worst teams in all of football to end and begin different years.

Everybody thought the three wins after the bye had Dallas rolling. Against Pittsburgh, their defense was phenomenal, never letting Ben Roethlisberger breath and shutting down the Steelers passing game almost completely for 53 minutes. But for all the supposed All-Pro players on the Cowboys roster, in the clutch, they make the cowardly lion from the Wizard of Oz seem brave at the end of games. Though Wade Phillips team was the equal, if not the better team, once again, the Boys couldn’t put the cork in the bottle at crunch time and Tony Romo look like the undrafted free agent he is when the chips are all on the table.

Though I’m unbelievably impressed with the Steelers this season, since I didn’t see any way around their brutal schedule, I’m squeamish about Mike Tomlin in the big game. On the fourth and one play early in the fourth quarter when Pittsburgh was stopped on downs, why wouldn’t you kick the field goal to make it a one score game at 13-6. I’m sure his argument would be he has faith in his defense to get the ball right back, great point. But wouldn’t the same argument hold be true if you were down just one score instead of two? Sometimes his strength as a coach is also his weakness and he has done similar things with mixed results as head coach.

Dallas will host the New York Giants, who were finally bitten by the Plaxico Burress bug and played like a team that had been through emotional ringer, losing at home to Philadelphia 20-14 as a touchdown favorite. Like a Trojan computer virus, if contained immediately, the damage can be minimal, however once other players on the team started to come into question for the incident, this story grew and had a lingering affect. It was also noted Domenik Hixon didn’t look nearly as comfortable in role as key receiver as opposed to matching up against weaker DB’s as the third or fourth option. The Eagles Brian Dawkins offered this insight.

Listen," Dawkins said, "I understand that you want to say the correct thing like 'We'll plug in this guy and we'll move on.' And that's all well and good. But when you have the type of player that Plax is and the attention you have to pay to him ... and you have to pay attention to him. You can't allow a corner to play one-on-one with Plax the whole game.

The Giants can certainly overcome this with three weeks left in the season, but the invincible tag lost several layers over the weekend as a play on team.

The Green Bay Packers are done, finished and kaput. Oh sure, in the off-season Packer apologists will point to five losses by four points or less or whatever the final tally is. Yet the fact remains, similar to Dallas, when called upon at the end of the game, the Green and Gold are just green with envy suffering another defeat.

Consider the Green Bay defense allowed 549 yards of offense to Houston at Lambeau Field. The Texans are essentially a dome or warm weather team and they played on the road in temperatures that never saw double digits and moved the ball like a 7 on 7 practice in August. Their is no doubt the Packers defensive backfield has been hamstrung by injuries at the safety position, but do you really take a player like CB Charles Woodson, who was having a Pro Bowl season and move him to safety?

Aaron Rodgers has mostly stayed above the disappointing season, but he was an important reason why they lost to Houston. The Packers were miserable 1 for 10 on third down conversions in the game and on six occasions they ran their favorite slant route play and never converted one. Twice, the receivers ran sloppy routes and didn’t shield defensive players properly. However, on all six passes Rodgers threw, none of the passes were in the tight window necessary to force completions. Instead of the usual December rush were accustomed to seeing by the Pack, they look to be going thru the motions and have to be thought of as play against team on the road in Jacksonville and in Chicago the next two weeks.

In the National Football League, nothing is a given, with the possible exception of blocking in the back on kicks twice or more a game. With the disillusionment Dallas and Green Bay have created, the wonderment the Miami Dolphins has spawned is about as confounding as any story this season. Miami, of course won just one game last season, covering the spread only five times. With an overturned roster, new attitude, improved quarterback play and better game plans, the Dolphins are tied for first place in the AFC East with the Jets and New England. Miami has two winnable contests with San Francisco and Kansas City next, in which they will be favored in both before heading for New Jersey to face the Jets. Think Chad Pennington will have his team ready if they are still tied for first in this matchup?

Quick Hits –This past week, teams that had scored or allowed 40 or more points the previous week were 4-0 ATS. On the season, nothing remarkable, with teams having scored 40+ points 9-8 ATS and those allowing the same number 7-7 ATS. Early in the year, we heard quite a bit about clubs from Pacific Time zone teams traveling East and losing. This last Sunday, three teams traveling west, two or more time zones away failed to cover. Annually, their are not a large number of these games, but teams that force five or more turnovers are 6-3 ATS this season, after producing 11-28-1 spread record the two previous years. Pittsburgh is a live play this week. Several weeks ago it was noted how well teams in the bottom five of Yards Per Point were doing at 16-6 ATS, after being 60 percent spread losers the last several years. As the season as worn on, they are coming back to normal with 7-13-1 ATS record the last five weeks.

Not Just Another Monday

A good back to basics 2-1 day at 3Daily Winners. Today’s Best System takes a good look at what revenge can mean when quality teams meet head on. Today’s Top Trend follows the exploits of the Clippers off an upset (isn’t every Clips win an upset really?). Our hockey guru from the Left Coast Connection has a Free Play. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON any team revenging a same season loss against opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). This means Carolina is the play with 15-2 ATS record, 88.2 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The L.A. Clippers are 3-14 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last two seasons.

Free Hockey Selection -3) Normally if a person hits a winner here, they come back the next day. Paul Buck sells his selections in the Featured Picks and Wagering Options part of this blog and has passed because he has big play tonight. The Free Play is from our NHL expert who is playing Nashville on the money line.

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Carolina Favored with Home Field Advantage

For this Monday Night, ESPN has their best game involving two exceptional teams from the NFC South. Carolina is the home team in this battle, facing Tampa Bay for sole possession of first place in the division. Based on how the season is playing out in NFL’s best and most competitive division, the Panthers could have a distinct edge. The four teams in this division are 22-2, 17-6-1 against the spread in 2008. (Not counting Saints trip to England as home game)

Tampa Bay can be coldly efficient, if not explosive, and won their fourth straight game, in 23-20 non-cover against New Orleans last week. Quarterback Jeff Garcia completed just 9 of 23 passes for 119 yards, and Tampa Bay gained only 254 yards of total offense, but the defense picked off three passes and held the Saints to 44 yards rushing on 18 carries. Traveling to Charlotte, they are in the middle of playing three NFC South contests.

The modus operandi for Jon Gruden is simple: control the clock, make one or two big plays and use a bone-crunching defense to wear down opponents. Running back Earnest Graham was recently lost for the year with an ankle injury, but it coincided with the return of Carnell Williams, out for 15 months (knee). The “Cadillac” has 16 carries in two games and scored his first touchdown since September 2007 in the win over New Orleans. Warrick Dunn has assumed the lead role, but the 12-year veteran isn’t the featured back of season’s past. He did, however, net his only 100-yard game of the year in the previous meeting with Carolina, a 27-3 win for Tampa Bay on Oct. 12. The Buccaneers are 29-2 ATS when they win straight up away in division games.

Carolina had its back against the wall in Green Bay last week, but a 54-yard completion from Jake Delhomme to Steve Smith to the Packers 1-yard line set up the winning touchdown with 1:30 to play in a 35-31 win.

DeAngelo Williams scored a career-high four touchdowns and gets a chance to avenge his worst game of the season, an 11-carry, 27-yard effort at Tampa Bay. He’s all but wrestled the position away from rookie Jonathan Stewart, who’s nursing a heel injury and was caught from behind at the Green Bay 3-yard line on a 43-yard run last week. Williams scored all four his touchdowns from the 1-yard line against the Packers. The Panthers are 17-6 ATS in home games after being out-gained by opposition by 100 or more total yards in last game.

Delhomme was picked off three times in the earlier 27-3 loss to the Bucs but has had their number in previous meetings, throwing for 948 yards and five touchdowns in his last four starts in the series. The quarterback has done his best work at home, leading the Panthers to a perfect 6-0 (3-2-1 ATS) mark while throwing nine of his 12 touchdown passes but just three of his nine interceptions.

Smith continued his tear over the last six weeks, topping the 100-yard mark for the fifth time in seven games and started the run with 112 yards at Tampa Bay.

Bookmaker.com has Carolina as three-point favorite, with a total of 38. In one of the best angles you will find this season, the Panthers 17-0 UNDER at home against division foes.

Tampa Bay covers if they can get off to a better start. The Bucs have been tempting fate with 6-1 record when the other team scores first. True, it speaks to resolve and an excellent defense; however in big games on the road, they could be caught. Tampa Bay is average in third down conversions and could keep the Panthers on the field by converting at a higher rate. Carolina has allowed over 138 yards rushing per game the last month, Gruden assuredly will ride his “Cadillac”, trying to make the underdog 10-4 ATS.

Carolina covers if the defense steps up. The Cats “D” has surrendered 98 points the last three weeks, totally unacceptable for a team with real postseason aspirations. Coach John Fox defenders need to keep Garcia in a bubble, not letting his escape to beat them. At least the Panthers are winning the turnover battle and are 8-0 ATS after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. On offense, be imaginative like they were against Green Bay and be the aggressor.

This week’s Monday Night system is to play on any division team that won by three or less points last week. As mentioned earlier, Tampa Bay won 23-20 last Sunday, making them the qualifying team for a system that is 17-5 ATS, 77.2 percent.

NFL Sunday Best from 3Daily Winners

Sorry to be so late with this today, but hosted a Christmas party and stayed up just a LITTLE later than expected and didn’t sleep fast enough. Have a great total system in the NFL that is 22-3 today. Have a sweet trend that has never lost and Paul Buck from the Left Coast Connection is having a great season and is releasing his Best Play for Free. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY OVER on home teams against the total who are a poor rushing team (70-95 YPG) against an average rushing defense (95-125 TPG) after 8 or more games, after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game. The teams that fit the criteria New Orleans and Atlanta and this system is 22-3, 88 percent.

Free Football Trend -2) The Detroit Lions are 0-10 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the last three seasons.

Free Football Selection -3) Paul Buck has hit over 60 percent in the NFL and is on New Orleans as his Best bet today.

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