Top NBA Teams Trickier to Bet Now

The NBA season is one of the most mentally and physically grueling there is in professional sports. No matter how good or a bad a team is, eventually the 82- game grind catches up with you. This can be especially troubling for NBA bettors, since it is widely considered the most difficult sport to bet sides on, since you are not only going against sharp numbers on a daily basis, but having to speculate on the mental condition of any given team, no matter how good your power ratings are or whatever methods you are inclined to use.

With the regular season approaching the mid-point of the year, boredom is often one of factors that play a huge part in how NBA players perform. The beginning of the season energized the good teams or those who were presumed to be good. Now 30-plus games into the season and the playoffs months away, it is easy for teams to lose focus, especially against inferior competition, whom they would normally toy with if in the mood.

The defending NBA champion Boston Celtics are a veteran bunch at most key positions and they started the season right where they left off in battering opponents by over 13 points a game, showing little mercy if the opponent choose not to put in four quarters of work. From the middle of November until Christmas Day, Boston won 19 games in a row, tying for the third longest streak in NBA history before succumbing to the Lakers in Los Angeles. During that amazing stretch, the Celtics won by an average of 14.6 points per game and were 13-6 against the oddsmakers, being a superb Play On club.

Since having the long winning streak snapped, Boston has played indifferent basketball. Doc Rivers’ team ended up losing three of four on Western swing and came home and walloped Washington and was totally disinterested in losing at New York 100-88 as 10.5 point favorites two nights later. Now would be a good time to be very selective with Paul Pierce and company, as the team looks for motivational spots to succeed.

The L.A. Lakers had a similar circumstance; theirs just came earlier in December. On December 1, Kobe Bryant and friends had already put together two win streaks of seven games and stood at 14-1. A one point loss at Indiana didn’t set off any alarms, since it was immediately followed by a 114-102 win over Philadelphia. Two nights later a close 106-104 victory at Washington signaled something might not be right and did that turn out to be true for the NBA bettor. Starting with the Wizards game, the Gold and Purple-clad Lakers would go on to lose an unconscionable 10 games in a row against the spread, though winning outright seven times. The oddsmakers likely feasted on all the Lakers money coming in, since they had to cover at some point, right? (Those that “chase” losses, have moved into one bedroom flats, trying to figure out next move)

What finally broke the cycle for Phil Jackson’s team was the role of an underdog on December 23 in New Orleans (just their second of the season, both in New Orleans), catching 2.5 points and routing the Hornets 100-87. This brought back the focus along with big win at home against Boston and the Lakers are now on new six-game winning streak, with five continuous covers.
What brought the Lakers back to winning ways, defensive intensity. While failing to cover the number in 10 consecutive games, they allowed over 101 points per game. Since then, L.A. has surrendered just 93.8 PPG.

No team is immune from a prolonged NBA campaign, even a younger team with fresher legs. The Cleveland Cavaliers haven’t received tremendous notary this season, since both of last year’s NBA finalists have played so well. That is not to say Cleveland is the Clippers when it comes to pub, especially with LeBron James, let’s just say it quieter.

From Nov. 3 until Dec. 23, Cleveland was beastly 23-2, with absolutely sick 18-5 ATS record. The Cavaliers were scintillating, tearing apart teams like a seven year old opening Christmas presents. A full 18 of their 23 victories were by 10 or more points and 14 of those were by 14 or more points. Finally, Cleveland could go no further. The schedule brought them woeful Washington twice and a back to back with an above average Miami team proved little incentive, as the Cavs are on 1-4 ATS bender, which includes a pair of losses. No doubt the Friday encounter with Boston will get the juices flowing again, but you have to be very careful.

Betting basketball every day is not easy, but it sure helps to know when to ride or get off hot teams. The more you know the better you will do.

Huge Spread Flip in GMAC Bowl

This almost was the fourth matchup of conference champions during the bowl season, but Tulsa and Ball State lost in the championship games. For each team, this is a redemption game, wanting to prove they were as good as they played during the regular year and finish on a positive note. This contest should help Ball State 12-1 (8-3-1 ATS), trying to win a bowl for the first time after four failures. The Cardinals have covered 23 of last 34 games. Tulsa (10-3, 7-5-1 ATS) limited East Carolina to just 278 yards, but the seven turnovers cost them the C-USA title. The Golden Hurricane is just 2-9 ATS in road games after the first month of the season the last couple of years and will be seeking to improve on 6-9 and 4-2 ATS bowl record.

Why to Watch and Wager

There should be no shortage of points and oddsmakers are backing up that point with a total of 75. Ball State quarterback Nate Davis was the star of stars in the MAC this season, passing for 26 touchdowns and 3,446 yards, leading an offense that averaged 459.4 yards per game and among the best in the country in throwing for 9.2 yards per attempt. Ball State is 7-2 ATS off a loss and 16-5 against the spread versus teams with winning records.

As good as the Ball State offense has been, they look like a mid-level D-2 team compared to Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane was second in the country in total offense with 565 yards per game. This is not a one dimensional offense either, rushing for 254.8 yards per game, which compliments David Johnson pass attack that averaged 310.2 YPG in constant hurry-up mode. Tulsa has excellent wide receivers that were part of countless big plays with 10.2 yards gained per pass attempt.

The Golden Hurricane is just 3-8 ATS against teams with winning records, in part because their defense is ordinary, even by C-USA standards in allowing 29.1 points per game. Conversely, Ball State surrendered 18.6 PPG against teams with similar power ratings; however the Cardinals will be without their head coach of six seasons Brady Hoke, who moved west to San Diego State.

Bettors of the GMAC Bowl are ignoring the negatives about Tulsa and moved them 2.5-point underdogs to 2.5-point favorites at Bookmaker.com. Ball State 7-2 ATS as an underdog. GMAC favorites have won and covered last six encounters, with average margin of victory 30 points.

Back to Regular Work Week Plays

A 1-2 day failed to yield any profit, but as we all know, that happens. Do you get the same feeling I do that Brad Childress is over his head in important games? That was among the reasons I played the Eagles yesterday. The best system I could find is not one I’ll personally be wagering on for various reasons, but I can’t argue with the results and hope it is correct. Not that Golden State needs a reason to fail again, but today’s Top Trend is yet another why the Warriors could fail. I have to admit to being surprised by how many bettors from the LCC like the Buckeyes tonight. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON all teams New Mexico State where the line is +3 to -3, off a road win by 10 points or more, with just one or fewer starters returning from last season. This system comes in a 24-5 ATS, 82.8 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Golden State Warriors are 2-11 ATS vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 76 percent or more of their attempts this season.

Free Football Selection -3) The members of the Left Coast Connection are solidly behind Ohio State in tonight’s game, with over 78 percent support.

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Texas and Ohio State Wagering Preview

Considering the circumstances involved, tons of plot lines for the Fiesta Bowl with these two heavyweights. One of the issues with the BCS games spread out over several days, it can sway the opinion of the public in a hurry and cause even more confusion. Who didn’t think USC was as good as or better than any team in the country after pummeling Penn State for the first three quarters of the Rose Bowl. The very next day unbeaten Utah ambushed Alabama at their own game, beating them at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball in decisive 31-17 victory. That night and the next day, it made everybody stop and realize the Utes just beat a team that was 15 minutes away for playing for national title having led Florida 20-17 entering the final quarter of the SEC championship game. The general consensus was Utah should finish no worse than number two in the polls.

This brings us to Texas (11-1, 9-3 ATS), who is the next flavor in line trying to regain the trust of the public and restate their argument, that yes it was them who was wronged, since neither USC or Utah beat Oklahoma in the first place. The Longhorn coaches for sure and likely the players realize fellow Big 12 partners Oklahoma State and Texas Tech have failed to hold up their end of the bargain in bowls in making the argument the Big 12 was the big cheese this last football campaign.

Texas really needs to come out and obliterate Ohio State (10-2, 5-6 ATS) to get back in the front of people minds and hope Oklahoma losses to make their case even stronger, so Longhorns fans and the media can whine for weeks. If Colt McCoy and rest of his teammates play like teams of the past with a 7-1 ATS record after a win by 21 or more points, they should be in good shape.

If you think about it, Texas is in a very similar situation to the 2004 Auburn team that got left behind, with Oklahoma and USC playing in the BCS title game that season. Everyone assumed Auburn who to fighting mad to go pound Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl. Instead the Tigers controlled the game behind Jason Campbell and a stout defense, but never put Virginia Tech away and the Hokies scored late to cover the six-points in 16-13 loss. Though USC crushed Oklahoma 55-19 and some wondered why Auburn wasn’t chosen instead of the Sooners, the unimpressive performance in the Sugar Bowl prevented an uprising. Does the same fate await Texas?

The Longhorns are terrible bowlers. Texas is 8-16 ATS all-time and even worse 5-12 ATS as favorites. Bookmaker.com opened Mack Brown’s team at 11.5-point favorites and after much scrutiny, has seen them fall all the way down to eight points.

Are you old enough to remember when the Big Ten used to be revered as football conference? Like most of the major cities in the Rust Belt area, with declining population, high unemployment and other maladies, the Big Ten isn’t even mentioned in conversations about the top conference in college football. Ohio State has been swept up in those very conversations with its recent failures. Jim Tressel’s teams have failed to come up in more big games than A-Rod.

This is the Buckeyes big opportunity to repair some of the pride of the Scarlet and Gray. Nobody at all is talking about Ohio State, eerily similar to discussion this time of year about the Indians and the Reds. Coach Tressel has to hope this club can improve upon18-9 ATS record vs. offensive teams scoring 31 or more points per game.

The Big Ten is abysmal 1-5 and 2-4 ATS in bowl games, with the Buckeyes the last lone hope for their tattered banner to wave somewhat proudly. The defense that allowed 13.1 points per game has to play at a level that most expected all season, not the one that was shredded by USC. The Buckeyes will have to make life hard on McCoy and hope they give just yards and not points. Terrelle Pryor will need the game of his young life finding receivers against a mediocre Texas secondary. Beanie Wells can be a big confidence builder if he can bust a few long runs. Ohio State is 2-7 ATS in last nine non-conference games.

Coach Brown will sell his team on jumping hard and fast on Ohio State, trying to give them that, “Oh no, not this again” feeling. If they can rush the passer and control Wells, they choke off the Buckeyes offense. Protecting McCoy is imperative and the receivers have to be prepared to take some big hits from linebackers and secondary that likes to smack people. Texas is 9-3 ATS in last 12 favorite roles.

The Fiesta Bowl has seen the underdog win and cover five of last seven, with Ohio State participating in two of those victories.

Sunday Best from 3Daily Winners

I know its sour grapes, but I hated to see the refs help decide the Colts and Chargers game. I’m not saying any of the penalties were bad calls, but if is close; let the players on the field decide the game, not the guys with hankies. In all honesty would have felt the same way if I had picked San Diego, having thought I was extremely lucky. What are your thoughts?

Hats off to UW-Milwaukee, who made two trips to Chicago this week for conference games and came away winners both times and gave us a system loss for a 2-1 day. Today we have a rare money line college basketball play. Besides it being right over 90 percent of the time, you can read the rest to understand why I choose it. Sal from the LCC continues his run in the NFL and offers another Free play today. Today’s Top Trend follows the always amusing exploits of the Clippers. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites vs. the money line like UC-Riverside, off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival, being a good team, winning 60-80 percent or more of their games on the season. This money line system is an extremely productive play at 137-15, 90.1 percent. I can recommend a play like this since the money line is not heavy at -140.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The L.A. Clippers are 4-16 ATS in home games off a road loss over the last two years.

Free Football Selection -3) Sal from the Left Coast Connection is now on 16-3 run in the NFL, with Arizona winner here and the Under on Indy and San Diego last night. Today he rides Miami at +3.5.

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When Confidence is out of Control in the NBA

When I left Highlands Elementary School and moved up to Indian Hills Junior High, I felt pretty good about myself. I believed I had conquered grade school and was more than ready for the next step. In fact, I had done so well at Highlands (the school crossing guard of the year award was my proudest achievement) that I had a touch of arrogance (even though I didn’t know what that word meant at such a tender age).

I enrolled in Edna Hulquist’s seventh grade Spanish class. Miss Hulquist had to be in her late 70’s, maybe even in her 80’s (twelve-year old kids aren’t a good judge of age). She was about 4’10” tall, maybe 4’11” in heels. She had the oddest habit when she cleaned the chalkboard. She put the eraser in her right hand and rapidly moved it back and forth across the board. There is nothing unusual in that, but what was unique was she also lifted her left hand up while she was erasing and moved it rapidly back and forth just like her right hand even though there was no eraser in her left hand. This is one of those things you have to see in person or view a video of it, but this was before YouTube.

I was doing very well in class. I felt like I was from south of the border when I would trill my double r’s and use the phrase “con mucho gusto”. I became cocky and was confident I was good enough speaking Spanish where I didn’t’ need to read the assigned chapters. My bubble burst as I failed the final exam not knowing the differences between the verbs estar and ser. Yo no estaba contento.

NBA teams can be just like I was. Things are going too well and you lose your edge and bad things happen, such as not covering the point spread. Let’s look at some real-life examples to illustrate this point.

A team can become overconfident when it is performing above its norm such as when a squad is burning the nets shooting 50%+ for three straight games. This has happened 152 times over the past three seasons. Overall, there is nothing worth betting on but if you make the team a home favorite we uncover a 59.6% ticket-cashing angle to play against our hot-shooting boys in their next game. Being home, the team gets to sleep in their own beds and has all of the “advantages” of playing in their own arena. Since they have been shooting lights out, they have to believe they are going to win. Of course, we do have them laying points so they have to win by margin to cover the point spread.

Let’s add in one more factor to see if we can improve that almost 60% angle to play against this team. Let’s make their opponent a losing team, one whose record is below .500. That should help the new opponent be overlooked by our excessively confident team. It improves to the tune of a 75% angle to play against them, 24-8 ATS, the past three seasons.

It doesn’t have to be an opponents’ winning percentage to help make a situation an overly profitable occurrence. Taking our hot team from the field hitting 50%+ three games in a row and put them against a team that has a poor defense, one that is allowing its foes to shoot at 46% or better from the floor, and you have a team that is only covering 33% of the next game following their three contests of blazing nets.

Now, if you want to drill down further by making their next opponent a team with a below .500 mark, they cover only 27.8% of the time. One final additional qualifier of making this a home game and you have a team only beating the point spread 19% of the time.

Our next example involves a team shooting well and playing good defense. A team in its previous game hits 50% or higher from the field. They also play tough defense holding their opponent to less than 40% shooting. The team’s current opponent did the exact opposite in their previous game. They shot poorly, below 40%, and played poor defense allowing 50% or higher shooting from the field. Most people’s first thought would be we have a team that is in good current form playing a team that is not in good current form. Therefore, you would think you have to bet on the team which shot well and defended well in their last game against the team that didn’t play very well.

However, as in many handicapping situations in virtually every sport, you have to think deeper than just considering what appears to be the obvious. Our good shooting/good defending squad played a well-rounded game, good on offense and good on defense. After such a fine performance in the NBA, it is difficult for a team to recreate the effort needed to sustain such a fine showing.

Our bad shooting and poor defensive team played a terrible game on both ends of the court. They are going to be focused in their next game to hopefully make sure it doesn’t happen again. There will be a stronger effort put out by players who are paid to do so. The result when two teams with this type of immediate past performance is the previous “bad team” covers the point spread 68.3% of the time over the past three years. This is the opposite result of what many people would expect.

The quality of competition you are facing can breed a false-sense of superiority. Teams that play a number of lower quality teams in a row and beat up on them are susceptible to a losing game against the point spread. Over the past three seasons, if a team has beaten three teams in a row with each team not having a winning percentage of 45% or higher and now they are playing a worse losing team, one with a below 40% success ratio of winning games, they are covering the number only 28.9% of the time. If our bully team is playing at home, their winning percentage in that fourth game drops even lower to 23.5%.

It is so very interesting how the level of competition you face after your three wins against sub-par teams makes a difference in your spread coverage rate. We mentioned how poorly a team does against a bad team. Just the opposite is true if they are facing a team winning 55% or better of their games after their three-game winning streak. Then our team is cashing tickets in 38 of the 58 instances this situation happened over the past three seasons, a 65.5% success ratio. Playing a better team keeps our team from laying down their guard and has them winning at a better ATS rate than if they were playing a weaker team.

A below average team that is tasting short term success usually reverts back to its normal form. As an example, a team with a season winning percentage below 45% that has won three of its past four games and is playing at home, and their previous game was also at home, only covers the points spread at a 35.7% frequency. If this team is favored by more than three points, their ATS pace falls to 21.7%.

Make sure you take notice when a team could incur a too-relaxed approach to a game due to their recent success. If you do, maybe you won’t have to stay after class and clean the erasers for Miss Hulquist.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority is a frequent visitor.

Sunday NFL Wild Card Betting Info

Baltimore at Miami

Though it won’t matter to the loser of this AFC Wild Card contest, each team will have made tremendous strides in just one season. What a difference a year has made for these two teams. Last January the Miami and Baltimore were in the market for new head coaches after a tough campaign that saw them finish 1-15 and 5-11, respectively. This January they’re meeting in an AFC wild-card game after winning 11 games apiece.

Has Baltimore really gone from a three point underdog to three point favorite in the same venue since Week 7? The oddsmakers believe so and answers why are just below the surface. Miami’s running was 15th in yards per carry at 4.2. Strip away the success of the Wildcat formation and that number tumbles to 3.8 YPC, which matches up with what Baltimore allows at 3.6, which was fifth in the NFL. Baltimore can also guard the Dolphins receivers, since they might have speed like Ted Ginn Jr or hands like Devone Bess, both are only average in height. Miami will have to continue to use their trio of tight ends to score points if the running game is stuffed in the red zone. The Fins are 18-6 ATS revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points.

A number of intangibles for Baltimore arise. Can Joe Flacco continue to show the poise in a road game where everything is geared towards playing faster in January? His steadiness will be tested. As the season wore on, the coaches had more faith in the deeper passing game and the Dolphins were 25th in yards allowed via the air. Will John Harbaugh and the offensive staff have faith in the rookie signal caller to throw down the field if he has shaky start? The Baltimore defense must play assignment football against the run and not allow Ronnie Brown to cutback to the weakside. The Ravens covered five of last six road games, but are just 1-8 ATS as road chalk.

Teams like Miami that have not been in the playoffs for three or more years are 18-8 ATS in the Wild Card round.

Philadelphia at Minnesota

Intriguing coaching matchup, with Brad Childress going up against his former boss Andy Reid. If Philadelphia gets off to good start, Reid is more inclined to stay with the run, which helps McNabb immeasurably. In this playoff contest, Reid should have a greater focus than Donovan McNabb for how the offense performs. Look DC Jim Johnson to demand gang-tackling on Adrian Peterson, feeling very comfortable his secondary can handle the pedestrian Vikings pass-catchers. Expect Johnson to work on getting into Tavaris Jackson’s head with exotic blitzes to confuse and force bad decisions. The Birds are 10-4 ATS on the road.

Talk about responsibility, Jackson and Peterson will be the two most important offensive players on the turf for Minnesota and both have been shoddy in pigskin protection. If they continue to not be mindful, they open the door for Philadelphia to run thru. Defensively, the Vikes are capable of taking away Eagles running game, which sets up the pass rush on McNabb which is particularly potent at home.

This might not be the right matchup for Minny who is 1-8 ATS vs. good teams outscoring opponents by six or more points per game on the season.

Saturday Selections from 3Daily Winners

Our totals system just missed last night giving us 1-1 day. Today we have a Top System in college hoops that is 24-5 and a Top Trend that is perfect in the Missouri Valley Conference. We have a Free Play in the NFL from one hot sports bettor. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road teams like UW-Milwaukee where the line is +3 to -3, off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off two or more consecutive home wins. This system is 24-5 ATS, 82.8 percent, the last five seasons.

Free Basketball Trend -2) BRADLEY is 10-0 ATS off a win against a conference rival over the last two seasons.

Free Football Selection -3) Sal from the Left Coast Connection closed the NFL season strong with a 14-3 record the last month and is on Arizona to win outright today.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

Saturday Wild Card Playoff Betting Info

Atlanta at Arizona

The Arizona Cardinals franchise will be hosting first playoff game since 1947, when they still resided in Chicago, which was about nine years before air-conditioning was introduced to a still budding metropolis called Phoenix in 1956.

For the most part, this is matchup of post-season neophytes, with Atlanta’s roster far different than the team that won division title in 2004. As this juncture, you have to dance with what brought you too this point. Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood of late have been quite a combination and Arizona has had problems with the power rushing teams, especially tackling. Matt Ryan must continue to keep his composure and get Roddy White in the right spots to attack ordinary Cards pass defense. Atlanta is 6-1 ATS off a spread loss.

You have to question the Cardinals mental toughness at this point. They have been unfocused for a month, and it’s not like they have an abundance of talent to just turn it on. It is imperative on offense they click from the very first play and put up points of some kind on the first drive to build confidence and three and out on defense wouldn’t hurt either. Remember, not only for this opening game, but what looks to be all the Wild Card games, home underdogs are 9-2 ATS.

Indianapolis at San Diego

This is you perfect example of why non-traditionalist want to abolish winning the division holding greater importance over having a better record. Indianapolis has won nine games in a row which is one more than what San Diego won all season. The Colts even hung a loss on San Diego earlier this season, with a 23-20 on a last-second field goal in November as three point road underdogs.

Indianapolis is far from a great team; not nearly as good as many of the teams they had earlier this decade. What Manning and the coaching staff have done is piece together a team that just wins, seldom by much as 7-8-1 ATS record proves. Since Ron Rivera started calling defensive signals, the Chargers have at least returned to more aggressive style, better suited to personnel. The Colts O-Line has to give Manning time to throw, since the Chargers secondary is just playing poorly this season. Indy can’t give up on the run either. A good method to keep the Bolts off guard is short completions on first down and run on second down. This loosens San Diego front seven. The Colts are 11-3 ATS after three or more triumphs.

Norv Turner it seems forgets what the strengths of his teams are. Anywhere he has coached, when his teams play physical, they win. San Diego played most of the year like a flag football team on offense and defense. Once they just started smacking people and trading paint, the Chargers started to win. The Bolts style is contrarian to how Indianapolis plays, which is why they give them so much trouble over the years. Manning has had more than one sour effort against San Diego, with pressure coming right up and A-and-B gaps. Phillip Rivers despite have sensational season, has made incredibly bad turnovers at the wrong time, he must play smart for San Diego to raise record to 14-4 ATS off a home blowout win by 21 points or more.

Chew on this, playoff teams that lost in the conference semi-finals the prior year and scored 24 or less points are 10-0-1 ATS in first playoff game the next year. Hello Indianapolis.

Early Line Moves in Football

The early Line Moves completed the regular season in the NFL with a 4-1 Week 17 on the sides, making the final record to 18-17, 51.4 percent just below profitability. The Totals did well with 2-1 record, raising season record to 31-22-1, 58.4 percent. Combining the college and NFL final records for the regular season, we have a superb 163-116-2, 58.4 percent. That you can take to the bank friends.

The Bowls are currently 5-5 on the sides and finished 3-4-1. Like I mentioned last week, it is difficult to pinpoint the smart money with bowls, but we still have two to go.

Bowl Game Sides
Nevada -1 to -3 Lost
Oklahoma State -4 to -2 Won
Clemson +1 to -2 Lost
Georgia -5 to -7 Won
Alabama -11 to -9 Won
UConn -4 to -6
Texas -10.5 to -8

Bowl Game Totals
Nev/Mary 58 to 61 Won
LSU/GT 49 to 52 Lost
Pitt/OSU 56 to 52.5 Won
Penn St/USC 48 to 45.5 Lost
Miss/TT 72 to 69.5 Lost

NFL Playoffs Sides and Totals
San Diego -1 to +1
Phil/Minn 43.5 to 41.5

January 2, Let'r Rip

My goodness, USC is just head and shoulders above almost anybody. It would be fantastic to see them play the winner of next week’s BCS title game. I could all but guarantee they would be favored. It was obvious South Carolina acted like they could have cared less about playing against Iowa. I think the Ol’ Ball Coach is recruiting too many players who have ability, but a me-first attitude.

Nice way to start the New Year at 2-0 and will suggest to start keep an eye on the Gamecocks basketball team instead today in the Top Trend. Have a rather interesting NBA Totals System that has been delivering winners at 82.5 percent clip. The LCC came back with excellent day and we have today’s consensus plays. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY UNDER on road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points - off a home non-cover like Sacramento performed, where the team won straight up as a favorite and are well rested team playing six or less games in exactly two week period. This Totals system is 28-6, 82.5 percent over the last five seasons, including 3-0 this NBA season. The average total score is eight points below today’s posted total of 188.5.

Free Basketball Trend -2) South Carolina basketball team is 8-0 ATS in road games after allowing 80 points or more over the last three seasons.

Free Football Selections -3) The Left Coast Connection consensus rebounded nicely with 4-1 day, more back to their usual standards. Today Ole Miss is at 57 percent, Kentucky at 75 percent, and Alabama at 61.5 percent.

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Suger Bowl Wagering Preview

What mindset does Alabama (12-1) bring to the Sugar Bowl? Are they angry about losing to Florida or do they have hangover like many unbeaten teams before them, losing last game. The Crimson Tide ended up 9-4 ATS this season and third in the country on defense. At least they will have head coach Nick Saban harping at them to finish the season the right way.

“Our players are certainly disappointed,” Saban said. “But this is an opportunity. If you’re going to be a great team, when you lose, you want to come back and play your best the next time you play.” Alabama returns to New Orleans for the first time since New Year’s Day 1993, when they won their last national championship, in upsetting Miami-Fl. 34-13 as eight point underdogs.

Alabama has tremendous talent on both sides of the ball and could impose their will on Utah. Make no mistake; this by all appearances is not last year’s Georgia and Hawaii Sugar Bowl. Utah has a football program that has gone unbeaten twice during the regular season in the last five years. The Utes have won seven consecutive bowl games and have beaten proven teams like TCU and Oregon State this season, albeit in Salt Lake City. Utah (12-0, 7-4 ATS) does have added pressure of trying to uphold the non-BCS schools that have gotten to this stage. The Utes are 10-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

The Crimson Tide are in a bad spot from public relations viewpoint, because a win and cover or even blowout will be looked upon with a yawn, and a close game or even upset of Bama would send shockwaves for a team that was number one not that many weeks ago. Alabama is 4-9 ATS off a spread loss.

Bookmaker.com has Utah as 9.5-point underdogs with total of 45.5. The Utes are 23-9 ATS when playing with two weeks or more of rest and can make even further noise about a playoff system with the upset. Utah has been one the best bowl team’s period with 10-3 and 8-3 ATS record. How they pull the upset is halting the Tide running game. Utah was 14th in the country against the run and Alabama’s toughest games were when the running game was held in check, like Ole Miss, Tulane and Florida did in particular. Offensively, Utah has to move the chains and hope to hit big plays that lead to touchdowns. The Utes are 22-9 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.

Watching film of Utah, probably was like scouting yourself is what the Alabama coaches thought. They like to control the clock with the run and have efficient passing game that chews up real estate. If the Tide can jump to quick lead like they often have in big games, they put the pressure on Utah to succeed immediately, not necessarily their strength. In many ways this is the reverse of the SEC title game for Saban’s squad. Bama was a significant underdog and managed to take a lead into the fourth quarter before wilting. The possibility strongly exists that Utah could do the same, before the stronger and better Alabama team controls the game in the final stanza.

If Alabama has the same thirst as USC did in the Rose Bowl, the results could be similar, however if the Crimson Tide come with the same emotional level as fellow SEC bowler South Carolina did, now this gets real interesting.

Alabama is 8-4 SU all-time in the Sugar Bowl and the SEC is 6-1 and 5-2 ATS. The favorite is 15-7 ATS the last 22 matchups in New Orleans.

Betting Home Courts in College Hoops

The home court advantage in college basketball varies widely. Some handicappers automatically assign a number to everybody’s home court, usually 3 to 5 points. The well-known statistician, Jeff Sagarin, whose work appears in “USA Today”, usually has it pegged on average as slightly less than four points.

It is my belief the value of the home court varies among teams. Certain conferences even show tendencies on how teams generally perform as a home favorite or underdog. One of the biggest challenges in handicapping college hoops is the sheer number of games to wager on. With way over 200 lined teams to wager on, I will look at any thing that gives me an edge. Using the generalization of conference tendencies helps me eliminate some games or put them on my “short list” for further evaluation.

For example, UC-Riverside is a team I believe is worthy of backing and recently made my “play on” list. They were visiting Denver University. Denver is on my list of not to play against at home. The reason is Denver is 29-13 against the point spread at home the past four seasons, a 69% success rate. UCR was a 4 to 5.5 underdog but ending up losing and failing to cover, albeit it was a close game. Even though I am looking to play UCR, I am not going to play them against a team with such a great home court ATS record as Denver’s.

Other teams with excellent home ATS records the past four years are Weber State, 29-13, Southern Miss, 25-13, 65.8%, Mississippi State, 35-20, 63.6%, and Bradley, Tennessee, Wright State, and New Mexico, all above 60%. Love ‘em or hate ‘em, ACC powerhouses North Carolina, 39-18, 68.4%, and Duke, 35-23, 60.3%, are money-makers at home.

Many people call great winning straight-up records at home a “great home court advantage”. Well, to the average fan that is correct who doesn’t care about point spread results. To the sports bettor, a great home court straight-up record might even mean a team is good to bet against on their “strong home court” as the linesmaker might be giving their opponents extra value. Wisconsin has a great home record straight-up, 141-14, over the past ten seasons going into this year. I easily can see playing the Badgers in a short-lined game or as a home underdog. However, over the past four years Wisconsin is only 28-29 ATS in home lined games. Their SU record is impressive, 64-5, over those four years, but the ATS mark is what I look at first.

As mentioned above, let’s look at some of the conference tendencies we have discovered.

Since the 2004 season, The Big 12 has had a very good record when they are at home lined at pick’em or a very short favorite up to -2.5 points: 30-13, 69.8%. The home favorite advantage stops when Big 12 teams are laying 7 to 17 points as at that level the home squad can only muster a 44.2% coverage rate, 68-86. Home dogs fare fairly well in the Big 12 as home teams getting 3 or more points but less than 10 are 40-29, 58.0%.

Another strong home court advantage in conference play shows up in the Big Ten where single-digit home favorites are covering the spread at a wallet-fattening 58.9% of the time, 99-69, since 2004. However, those point spread wins don’t come very easily when the home favorite is laying double-digits. Teams laying ten-points or more have cashed tickets only 43.7% of the time even though straight-up the highly-favored home team has won 105 out of 108 games.

Something many sports bettors don’t do is to look at lined totals in college hoops. Maybe this stat will have you start paying more attention to playing totals: In Big 10 conference games involving double-digit home favorites, the Under is 61-36, 62.9%. If the points being laid is 14 or more, the Under improves to 68.2%.

The Big East is one of the worst conferences overall when it comes to home-court advantage. With 16 teams in the basketball version of the conference, there is a larger gap in quality of the top-tier and bottom-rung teams. Home underdogs of any point spread have only covered the number 43.7% of the time over the past four seasons. An interesting side note is the Over wins 54.2% of the time when a home dog in league play is involved.

A strong home-court advantage is not the case in the Big East when the home team is a single-digit underdog covering the spread only 43.2% of the time. The Big East is such a large league that many times there is a bigger difference in talent from the top to the bottom and the number of sub-par teams.

In direct contrast to the Big East, the Sun Belt Conference has an exceptional record for home dogs since 2004, 49-34 ATS, 59.0%. The sweet spot is when a home team is getting 3 to 6.5 points, 22-9 ATS, 71.0%. The geographic range of the SBC is rather large stretching from Denver to the tip of Florida. Some of the smaller cities where schools are located also helps make travel a challenge.

Of course if you want to believe that a fair amount of distance traveled to a road destination is a factor, then you would want to look at the WAC. There are schools located in Louisiana to Idaho to Hawaii. There is a super-sharp differential between the point spread record of home favorites and underdogs at home. Regardless of the line, WAC teams laying points at home in a conference game have only covered the number 42.8% of the time since the 2004 season. The best line to bet against home faves is when they are favored by less than seven points to pick’em, 64.8% winners taking the road team and the points.

Road favorites in the WAC don’t do well either, 39-51, 43.3%. Again, the good spot to go against these favorites is when they are favored by less than seven points to pick’em, 26-36, 41.9%. However, a past trend you should know about is these WAC road teams giving less than seven points are 26-12 Over the lined total, 68.4%.

I imagine a lot of people assume that teams traveling to Hawaii for a conference game helps skew the numbers believing the visiting team will be too tired and the influence of the time zone difference. Actually, over the past four seasons, Hawaii has virtually an exact .500 ATS record in conference play. Yes, their straight-up record is very good, but the point spread is the great equalizer and you know the oddsmaker is shading the line to Hawaii’s side in home games on the island.

In conference play, an exceptional home court advantage when the line is a pick’em to a 2.5 point underdog occurs in the Southeastern Conference. Small home dogs are 22-12, 64.7%, against the spread since 2004 in the SEC. The straight-up record isn’t bad either at 19-15. With the line that small, the teams are very evenly matched and the advantage of playing at home comes through.

However, in SEC games if the two teams aren’t as evenly matched and the home team is getting 3 to 7 points, the ATS record of the home team is a losing 21-31, 40.4%, and a dismal 18-34 SU, 34.6%.

For you totals players, a great spot in SEC games that wins 73.9% of the time since 2004 is to take the Under when a home team is favored by 14 or more points.

The Mid-American Conference has a very strong home-court advantage overall. However, it really is because of the huge quality difference between a few good squads and three to six squads that fall below 200 in college RPI ratings. Home favorites in MAC games over the past four seasons are winning ATS at a 58.6% rate, 157-111. Teams from pick’em to 2.5 point favorites are virtually .500, 28-30 ATS. However, with such a wide differential in the top MAC squads and the bottom-feeders, you would assume home dogs don’t do so well. Overall, the past four seasons home MAC dogs are covering 47.6% of the point spreads.

Knowing the true value of home courts helps the sports bettor gain an edge for profitability.

Author Jim Kruger is the brains behind Las Vegas Sports Authority.

Happy New Year - Let's Get Started with More Winners

Happy New Year to everyone, my wish is for a prosperous 2009 for you. Set your goals high and reach for the stars, that’s how you get thinks done. By pushing yourself, you will be amazed what you can accomplish.

No outstanding systems in football or college basketball today, but there is a very good one in today’s cool outdoor hockey at Wrigley Field in Chicago. Today’s Top Trend is really incredible and involves Penn State in the Rose Bowl. The majority of the Left Coast Connection stunk to close out 2008 yesterday, let’s hope they do better today. Good Luck.

Free Hockey System-1) PLAY AGAINST any team on the money line like Chicago, off an embarrassing loss by four goals or more to a division rival, being a marginal winning team (51% to 60%), playing a winning team like Detroit. This system is 22-5, 81.5 percent on the money line.

Free Football Trend -2) PENN ST is 0-13 ATS vs. defensive teams who give up 12 or less points a game.

Free Football Selections -3) The Left Coast Connection consensus got their butt handed to them yesterday, let’s see how they to start the New Year. Iowa 55 percent, Georgia 66 percent, Nebraska 52 percent, Penn State 58 percent and Virginia Tech 56 percent.

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2009 Orange Bowl Betting Preview

Even in the middle of November, nobody could have foreseen this as an Orange Bowl encounter. What each team proved down the stretch how resilient they were and seized the opportunity when presented with it to be conference champs. Cincinnati (11-2, 6-6 ATS) arrives in South Florida as the more impressive team, with balance on both sides of the ball. The Bearcats are 14-4 ATS vs defensive teams permitting 285 or less yards per game. Don’t sell Virginia Tech (9-4, 5-7 ATS) short, with seventh-ranked defense and offense with almost a month to improve. The Hokies are 12-2 ATS off an upset win as an underdog. This is an important game for the ACC’s reputation, as they have lost eight straight BCS games and are 2-6 against the spread.

Why to Watch and Wager

In terms of national excitement, the Poinsettia Bowl had a better matchup with TCU and Boise State. This BCS Bowl has drawn a collective yawn form the media and frankly is drawing a good slot playing New Year’s night, as opposed to the other bowls.

Irregardless, these two schools managed to do something nobody in their respective conferences could, take charge and win. Coach Brian Kelly, thought to be goner, will stay at least for one more year in the Queen City, and is a fabulous taskmaster, getting the most out of players by not accepting excuses. When the Bearcats had more quarterback injuries than a five-car pileup, Kelly told everyone not to fell sorry for them, it’s part of the game and his squad persevered. This team has proven they can win anywhere and are 13-4 ATS away from home when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%).

Frank Beamer has been through many situations as coach of Virginia Tech, but getting a team that ranks 107th in total offense to a BCS game, well that might be a bigger miracle than not having a hangover after drinking two bottles of $3.00 bubbly. With limited weapons on offense, the defense has to force turnovers and the Hokies must win the field position battle or else. Virginia Tech is 26-11 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games.

Players to watch for Cincinnati are quarterback Tony Pike, receiver Mardy Gilyard, safety Brandon Underwood and punter Kevin Huber, who led the nation in net punting and could force Virginia Tech to travel long distances to score. For the Hokies, impact players include Tyrod Taylor, corners Victor Harris and Stephan Virgil and tight end Greg Boone. If the Virginia Tech secondary limits the Cincy passing game, they have a real shot.

Look for each team to be selling out for respect in South Florida.

2009 Rose Bowl Betting Preview

This year’s Rose Bowl matchup embodies the tradition of the event. Two long time college football powers, both of whom could have easily been playing for the BCS title will collide. In the last seven Rose Bowl games, the average total score has been 52.8 points per game. The way these two defenses line up, that seems as likely to happen as keeping your New Year’s resolution by the end of the month.

This figures to be a Keith Jackson special, with the “big hosses” up front controlling the action, particularly on defense. For a refresher, here are some of the numbers USC and Penn State put up on defense.

Total Defense
USC – 1st 206.1 yards per game
Penn State -5th 263.9 yards per game

Run Defense
USC – 5th 83.2 YPG
Penn State -8th 92.9 YPG

Pass Defense
USC – 1st 122.1 YPG
Penn State -12th 168 YPG

Points Allowed
USC – 1st 7.7 points per game
Penn State -3rd 12.4 points per game


The heralded USC (11-1, 7-5 ATS) defense was as good as advertised, except for one half against Oregon State. That’s not to say the Trojans didn’t catch any breaks. They played Ohio State without Beanie Wells, Oregon during its quarterback injury problems and the Pac-10 for the most part was weak. That’s not to take away anything from their performance on the field; these are just facts for team that is 13-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

The Rose Bowl has been a graveyard for the Big Ten, with a 10-19 ATS record in their meeting with the Pac-10. They haven’t won since 2001, when Wisconsin Barry Alvarez was in his hey-day and this conference has not covered the number against a Pacific 10 team since Ohio State scored late as two-point favorites against Arizona State to win 20-17, back in 1997.

Why should Penn State (11-1, 7-3-1 ATS) be any different? In many ways the Nittany Lions shouldn’t, since they are 0-10 ATS in road games vs. excellent defenses allowing 2.75 or less yards a carry. Penn State has also struggled mightily against defensive teams who give up 12 or less points a game, with 0-13 spread record. For all the early season talk about the new offense, the Nittany Lions were stymied by Ohio State and non-existent against Iowa in the second half in their only loss, when they failed to capitalize on scoring chances in the first half in Iowa City.

So how does Penn State not only cover, but pull the upset against USC? Bookmaker.com has the Nittany Lions on the receiving end of 8.5-points with a total of 45, down three points from opening number. Joe Paterno and his staff have the best offensive line the Trojans have faced all year, period. The way to get them off-guard is to smack them in the mouth and utilize “trickeration” to get them to think, as opposed to play instinctively. USC is outstanding, however they don’t rise to every occasion and their offense can be contained as Arizona and California proved holding them to 17 points.

USC has to cut off the head, which in this case is quarterback, Daryll Clark. If the senior has issues, the Penn State offense has issues. As can be the case in big games, if USC jumps off to 10-0 lead in the first quarter, the Nittany Lions might get a little panicky, especially against this defense and start trying to make unnatural plays. If Pete Carroll’s crew can do this, they’ll move Penn State to 1-10 ATS vs. offensive teams scoring 31 or more points a game.

Jo Paterno happily returns to Pasadena for the first time in 14 years with his best team since then, he hopes he can leave just as happy as last time.

New Year’s Day Bowl Games Early Starters

Happy New Year! With the advent of 2009 (doesn’t the turn of the century seem like it wasn’t that long ago) the Cotton Bowl opted out for a date for tomorrow, helping out all of us that had a little too much fun and stayed up a little too late last night. On paper at least, we appear to have three games that have possibilities of being close. The old-school belief is now when the favorites start coming in with regularity in bowl contests, let’s see if the New Year starts out that way.

Outback Bowl - Iowa vs South Carolina

More than one eyebrow was raised when this contest was announced to start the New Year’s Day bowl festivities. This makes this a more compelling meeting for each, looking to erase doubts. Iowa started 3-3, with three defeats by nine points. The Hawkeyes put it together, culminating in an upset of Penn State. After 55-0 drubbing of Minnesota, Iowa is 17-5 ATS after a game committing no turnovers. The vaunted South Carolina defense caved in for 87 points in last two losses, with zero help from offense. With Iowa solid defensively, surprisingly the Gamecocks are 5-1 ATS vs teams who give up 14 or less PPG. The Hawkeyes are meager 2-6 ATS as bowl favorite, with USC marginally better 2-4 ATS as dog.

Why to Watch and Wager

Steve Spurrier is very aware his team has faded down the stretch the last two years. In fact losing the last couple of games have become common place in Columbia, having done so six of the last seven seasons. Spurrier, seldom the positive sort, has taken a more positive approach since losing to Clemson and wants his players to enjoy the moment and end the season on upbeat note. It might not be that easy for the Gamecocks who are 3-7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 2-6-1 ATS as an underdog. Iowa has won five of last six with ball-hawking defense that is +8 in turnover margin during this streak. Running back Shonn Greene has led the Hawkeyes offense and they have gotten just enough out the passing game to average 30.2 points per game. Iowa is 12-4 ATS as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. In the Outback Bowl, the favorite is 14-6 against the spread with Big Ten 4-2 ATS.

Bookmaker.com Line – Iowa -3.5, 43

Capital One Bowl- Michigan State vs Georgia

Michigan State (9-3, 6-6 ATS) is playing in a New Year’s Day bowl for the first time in nine seasons as they believe they are on the right track to make this annual event. The Spartans were waxed 49-18 by Penn State in their finale, but that’s nothing new and coach Mark Dantonio teams are 9-1 ATS after a loss by 17 or more points. Possibly Georgia (9-3, 3-6-2 ATS) could have lived up to the preseason hype of number one if they could have fielded the team they thought they had in July, but injuries took care of any dreams. Coach Mark Richt teams traditionally have been good away from home, 15-6 ATS playing against a team with 75 percent or higher win percentage. The Bulldogs are good 15-11 ATS in bowls (7-3 ATS L10), with Spartans 5-4 ATS as underdogs.

Why to Watch and Wager

For Georgia, it’s about getting the running game going against Michigan State. In the Bulldogs three losses, Knowshon Moreno was held under the century mark. The coaches have also reviewed the run defense, which allowed 226.4 yards per game in last five encounters, including distressing 409 to Georgia. The Bulldogs are 1-5-1 ATS as favorites in last seven outings. Michigan State assuredly will test that Georgia front with Javon Ringer, who finished third nationally in rushing at 132.5 yards per game and tied for second in touchdowns with 21. Quarterback Brian Hoyer needs to play well for the Spartans to pull the upset and Michigan State is 10-4 ATS vs. teams with winning records. This bowl has been recently dominated by the Big Ten with five covers in six games, with the only loser being in overtime. In fact, the Big Ten has a streak of four consecutive outright upsets in Orlando.

Bookmaker.com Line – Georgia -7.5, 55

Gator Bowl - Clemson vs Nebraska

Clemson University rewarded Dabo Swinney with head coaching position, for making the best of difficult situation and guiding the Tigers (7-5, 4-6 ATS) to three wins to close the season. Clemson finally lived up to preseason hype, with defense that was ranked 15th overall. They will be called on again against high-powered Nebraska offense that scores 36.2 points per game. The Cornhuskers (8-4, 6-6 ATS) made strides to return to past glories with eight wins this season. Nebraska is a ball-hog on offense, holding it for over 33 minutes a game. The Huskers out-played Colorado in final home game, yet is 0-7 ATS after out-gaining foe by 125 or more total yards. Oddly, Nebraska is 15-15 ATS in bowls. The ACC is 7-0 ATS in this bowl, though Clemson was the last loser in 2001 game.

Why to Watch and Wager

After a tumultuous season, Clemson can still cap the year with a New Year’s Day triumph. The Tigers are making their ninth Gator Bowl appearance and have the same number of functioning weapons they had to start the season. Quarterback Cullen Harper and the backfield of James Davis and C.J. Spiller were all swallowed up by ineffective offensive line, until gaining confidence late in year, which allowed them to win four of five. It should be noted, Clemson averaged just 16.8 points per game away from home compared to 25.5 overall. The Tigers are only 2-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Nebraska returns to bowl game after one year absence and plays in this bowl for the first time ever. Senior quarterback Joe Ganz was among the plethora of fine signal callers in the Big 12. The Cornhuskers won five of last six and averaged 38 points per game in last three. Even in winning, Nebraska average better than two turnovers a game and is 2-10 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up wins. The favorite has cashed in nine of last 12 Gator Bowls.

Bookmaker.com Line – Clemson -2, 56

New Year's Eve Betting Action

Split yesterday’s action, but the LCC was perfect 3-0 in bowl games on consensus basis. I’ve posted the consensus again for today. The always popular Perfect Trend is back, this time in the NBA. Yesterday’s college basketball system lost and we come back with an even better one today at 88 percent. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Southern Illinois, after going over the total by more than six points in three consecutive games. This college hoops system is 22-3 ATS, 88 percent the last five years.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Detroit Pistons are 11-0 ATS after allowing 85 points or less two straight games over the last two seasons.

Free Football Selections -3) The Left Coast Connection consensus was 3-0 yesterday; let’s see how they do today. Air Force (+4) 52 percent, Boston College (-3.5) 75 percent, Pittsburgh (+2) 54 percent, Minnesota (+9) 58 percent and Georgia Tech (-4) 52 percent.

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Five Bowls Games to Send 2008 out with a Bang

The last day of 2008 offers up five bowls encounters, staggered by times, as an appetizer before New Year’s Eve celebration. It will feature running teams like the Air Force and Georgia Tech, along with teams that love to throw the ball like Houston and Kansas. Other universities will be attempting to end losing streaks like Minnesota and LSU, while a squad like Pittsburgh wants to keep that winning feeling prevailing into next season. On this the 366th day of the leap year, we even get a team that last appeared in a bowl game in 1982 (Vanderbilt), when one of the most popular groups of that year was Culture Club, fronted by Boy George.

Armed Forces Bowl - Air Force vs Houston

This bowl contest is a marvelous matchup in contrast in styles. Air Force uses the option ground game to rack up 268.9 yards per game (5th in the nation) and Houston (7-5, 4-7 ATS) prefers spread attack with the pass in totaling 413.5 yards per game (2nd in the country). This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Falcons, being one of the youngest teams in the country. They exceeded expectations with 8-4 and 7-4 ATS record and are 13-4 ATS in road games with two or more weeks off. Houston’s defense cost them C-USA title shot in 56-42 loss to Rice and they are only 4-13 ATS after allowing 50 or more points. Air Force may be just 8-9-1 in bowls; nevertheless a 10-5 ATS record makes them attractive potential play. Houston is 6-6 ATS in a dozen tries in the postseason.

Why to Watch and Wager

The Mountain West Conference was believed to be stronger than presumed this season and the Air Force could essentially cement that belief with a victory, assuring the league of a winning postseason record with unbeaten Utah still to come. Military schools are normally very good bowl wagers, since they play with the same intensity all the time and are accomplished in running the ball and eating up time, making bowl foes nervous. The Flyboys are 8-1 ATS after gaining 125 or less passing yards in three straight games. Most people didn’t realize these teams met on Sept.13 when the game was moved to Dallas because of Hurricane Ike. Houston was obviously out of sorts having to give up home game and players worried about their family and friends, losing 31-28 as four point favorites. Some might question the Cougars motivation, but after losing chance to play in C-USA championship, losing three straight bowl games and in revenge spot, there is plenty to prove for Houston.

Bookmaker.com Line – Houston -4, 66

Sun Bowl -Oregon State vs Pittsburgh

The Sun Bowl was able to secure two Top 25 teams and has one of the better non-BCS matchups. If freshman Jacquizz Rodgers is healthy for Oregon State (8-4 SU & ATS), this will set up a hookup between two of the nation's most exciting running backs. Pittsburgh’s LeSean McCoy is sensational runner and totaled 21 touchdowns in 2008. Both squads overcame slow starts to finish strong. The Panthers (9-3, 6-6 ATS) closed 4-1 straight up and ATS, but were sloppy with the ball and are 3-16 ATS after consecutive games committing three or more turnovers. The Beavers were a busy 8-2 ATS after losing first two, and are 8-0 ATS after covering the spread in two of last three games. Oregon State is on 4-0 and 3-1 ATS in recent bowls; Pitt plays in the postseason for first time since 2002.

Why to Watch and Wager

Among the bowls before 2009, this has the possibility of being a real head-knocker. Both teams prefer to run the ball and each has an above average passing game. Pittsburgh will have health edge with Jacquizz Rodgers still a little uncertain, but his bother James is definitely out with broken collarbone which he suffered in last game. Though Pittsburgh faired well, they are still coached by Dave Wannstedt, meaning anything is possible, good or bad. Off their 34-10 pasting of Connecticut, the Panthers are 4-11 ATS following a SU win of more than 20 points. Oregon State slid from trip to Pasadena to El Paso, but chances are still realized they lost four games. Coach Mike Riley has normally been sound in bowl preparation, with the Beavers 6-2 ATS in last eight off a loss. Sun Bowl fact- The underdog is 16-4 ATS the last two decades.

Bookmaker.com Line – Oregon State -2, 51.5

Music City Bowl - Boston College vs Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt waited 26 years to play in first bowl game and they don’t even get to leave Nashville, playing in Music City Bowl. The Commodores (6-6, 7-5 ATS) come in among the coldest bowl teams, losing six of last seven encounters. The offense caused this to happen, finishing 117th in total yards. Vandy is 22-7 ATS away from home after playing their last game on the road. Boston College (9-4, 7-5 ATS) suffered a second straight ACC title game defeat and their motivation will come into question. With two defensive teams, this conflict could go Under. Boston College is 22-9 UNDER on the road after a spread loss and Vanderbilt is 17-6 UNDER in all games over the last two seasons. The Eagles are riding eight bowl game winning streak and had reeled off nine bowl covers in a row before losing last two.

Why to Watch and Wager

Let’s start with the fact if your dad or grandfather was a sports bettor and made you watch the bowls when you were around 10 years old, you would be 36 now being able to witness Vanderbilt in a bowl game again. The Commodores haven’t moved the ball against hardly anyone and with the behemoths Boston College has like B.J. Raji, probably aren’t going to be moved by Vandy’s less than dandy O-Line. At least the ‘Dores are 7-2 ATS as underdogs. The Eagles would most likely have played in a better bowl, but B.C. fans are well known for watching bowl games on television, not in the stands. If Boston College could not cover last year against Michigan State in Champs Bowl, they could have equally as difficult a time against Vanderbilt, who has solid defense. The Music City Bowl is notorious for dogs covering with 8-2 ATS mark, with faves losing outright seven times.

Bookmaker.com Line – Boston College -3.5, 40.5

Insight Bowl - Minnesota vs Kansas

Though Minnesota (7-5, 7-4 ATS) finished with four straight losses, this bowl experience should be cherished after 1-11 2007 campaign. The Golden Gophers have real deficiencies in the offensive line and are 3-12 ATS after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in four straight games. Minnesota was 81st in points scored and figures to have to do better against potent Kansas (7-5, 6-5 ATS) offense. Possibly the defense can get after talented Kansas QB Todd Reesing, who was sacked frequently (92nd overall) in 2008.

The Jayhawks schedule was tougher and the talent not quite as good as last year’s Orange Bowl outfit, however the upset of rival Missouri had to be satisfying. Kansas is 17-6 ATS in all lined games over the last two years and 12-3 ATS as chalk. This is the Jayhawks fourth bowl experience in six years and first ever in back-to-back seasons.

Why to Watch and Wager

Which Minnesota team shows up, the won that beat Purdue and Illinois on the road or the one that gained 134 total yards at home against Iowa in season finale 55-0 massacre? On the heels of 1-11 season, seven wins and bowl should look pretty good; however a fifth consecutive loss wipes away that momentum. The Golden Gophers come in 9-3-1 ATS after allowing 40 or more points. You saw how excited Missouri played in Alamo Bowl; will Kansas have the same feeling after Orange Bowl bout from a season ago? The Jayhawks are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games overall and should be good as long as they don’t turn the ball over excessively. Nevertheless, teams like Minnesota having lost three straight games and catching points cover the spread over 70 percent of the time.

Sportsbook.com Line – Kansas -9, 59

Chick-fil-A Bowl - LSU vs Georgia Tech

Nobody would have expected the final records of these two clubs, heading into this bowl matchup when the 2008 began. The thought of LSU allowing 30 or more points in half their games in ludicrous, yet it occurred. The Tigers (7-5, 2-9 ATS) were the first consensus national champion since Ohio State in 1943 to follow their national championship title with a losing conference record and are 2-10 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record.

The wisdom in hiring Paul Johnson to run option offense with the speed of ACC players was questioned, yet Georgia Tech (9-3, 8-2 ATS) led the league in total offense. The Yellow Jackets were 8-2 ATS this season and are 7-0 ATS off a close road win by three points or less. LSU is 4-1 SU and ATS in last five bowls, with serious questions about their desire after playing in so many big contests.

Why to Watch and Wager

If Georgia Tech can run for almost 1,500 yards in last four games against bowl teams Florida State, North Carolina, Miami-Fl and Georgia, why should LSU be any different? Toss in this angle, the Tigers are 0-10 ATS versus rushing teams averaging 4.75 rushing yards per carry over the last two seasons. The Yellow Jackets will be playing before predominantly home crowd in there own city, though LSU will have plenty of support. What could fire up the Tigers are turnovers. Georgia Tech gave the ball up 24 times and had nearly that many they recovered themselves. If they play dropsies again, LSU still athletes that can be difference makers and cash them in. The Bengal Tigers are 10-1 ATS away from home after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers.

Sportsbook.com Line – Georgia Tech -4, 53

Tuesday Dec.30 Wagering Material

Took our lumps a little yesterday with 1-2 day as Davidson just missed out on cover. Today’s Top Trend is in the NBA following the Memphis team. We give you what is happening from betting syndicate in today’s three bowls, plus a college basketball system that is 85.7 percent in rivalry game.Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road teams like Clemson, where the line is +3 to -3, off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off two or more consecutive home wins. This system has brought home winners 85.7 percent of the time, with 24-4 ATS record.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Memphis Grizzlies are 1-13 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last two seasons.

Free Football Selections -3) The Left Coast Connection has Rice covering with 56 percent, Maryland at 51 percent and Oregon at 58 percent, though most that wagered today are on Okie State.

Oregon and Oklahoma State Mean Points in Holiday Bowl

If you are looking to be entertained, it might make sense to plan Tuesday night watching a college bowl game where points will not be in short supply. Oregon comes in averaging 41.9 points per game and Oklahoma State is right behind them 41.6 points. Both schools offer splendid running games that total up yardage faster than a grocery store bill to feed a family of six and have capable running backs that can go the distance at a moments notice.

Oklahoma State (9-3, 8-3 ATS) may be favored by 2.5-points, but one of the most dangerous offenses in the country this side of Norman will invade San Diego. The Oregon Ducks (9-3, 6-6 ATS) are averaging 45 points per game in last five contests, with a running game totaling 281.6 yards per game during the same period. The Ducks have double-barreled duo in senior Jeremiah Johnson and junior LeGarrette Blount, who combined for 2,100 yards and 28 trips to the end zone. Oregon has covered five of last six as bowl underdogs.

Oklahoma State running proficiency isn’t far behind at 256 yards per game and 5.6 per carry. They utilize the talents of Kendall Hunter, who ran for over 1,500 yards along with a few other backs. Quarterback Zac Robinson is the one who runs the show, being a skilled runner and excellent thrower, good for 2,735 yards with 24 TDs and eight interceptions this season. Oklahoma State’s only fault this season was being in wrong division, matched up against Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech, all resulting in losses. The Cowboys off the Sooners loss are 7-2 ATS off a defeat and 4-1 against the number if they permitted 40 or more points.

This marks a unique return for Okie State coach Mike Gundy, who becomes the first person to play and coach in the Holiday Bowl. He’s looking forward to the experience. We’re very excited about heading to San Diego for the Pacific Life Holiday Bowl,” Gundy said. “It was a tremendous experience for me as a player and I’m happy our team will get to enjoy San Diego and the festivities that surround a great bowl game. … We look forward to playing an excellent Oregon team.” Oklahoma State is just 1-4 ATS when favored by three or less points, but Robinson will be matched against the 108th ranked pass defense in the country.

Oregon’s coach Mike Bellotti knows what to expect, “Both of these teams run the ball really well,” Bellotti said. “But in the final analysis the team that plays the best defense in the game is going to win.” His team will look to exploit Cowboys defense which allowed 38.1 points per game against the six bowl teams they faced this season. Bellotti’s teams are on 10-2 ATS in non-conference action.

Oklahoma State is among your better bowl teams with 12-6 record and sporting outstanding 7-1-1 ATS mark as favorite. The Ducks are 5-3 ATS as dogs and 6-5 ATS under coach Bellotti. Big 12 favorites have failed to cover over 77 percent of the time in bowls against the Pac-10.
In the long history of this bowl, the favorite is 11-17 ATS, winning the last two. More often then not, the OVER has been the correct total, presently on a 5-3 run the last eight matchups. Keep an eye on this tidbit; Pac-10 underdogs have paid up 80 percent of the time in last 20 bowl games.

ESPN has coverage starting at 8 Eastern for this year’s Holiday Bowl.

Matt Millen's Perfect Masterpiece

This pride of Lions is not proud of its perfect season.

"No competitor wants to go through something like this," whimpered Detroit Lions head coach Rod Marinelli after his team suffered loss number 16 on the season and completed a winless 2008 campaign.

Kicker Jason Hanson described his feelings with more detail. “It’s so mind-numbingly awful. It’s a feeling of complete utter embarrassment and sadness.”

Don't be so hard on yourself Jason. You put together a career year, but unfortunately it will always be overshadowed by the goose egg your team posted in the win column.

The Detroit Lions became the first team since the league adopted a 16-game schedule in 1978 to go 0-16 and the beleaguered franchise has now lost 23 of their last 24 games. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the last team to go winless during an NFL season, piecing together a laughable 0-14 record in 1976.

But my hat is off to Detroit.

Think about it, it’s probably just as hard to go defeated during a professional sports season as it is to go undefeated. This team had to do quite a few things wrong to not accidentally stumble upon a win. They blew countless leads including a 17-point first quarter margin against Tampa Bay in Week 12.

And this memorable season was a treat for the die-hard fan. It’s not every year we get to witness meaningful sports history being made. Our hopes of perfection were dashed last year after the Giants denied the Patriots a 19-0 season by downing New England in Super Bowl XLII.

With baseball history on the line back in ‘03, I can remember praying for the Detroit Tigers to lose four of their last seven games and rewrite the almanac. They ended up only losing two of their final seven outings but still set an American League record with 119 losses. I love historical sports seasons because I know I will one day be able to say to my grandkid, “Sonny, I can remember back in aught-eight when the Lions didn’t win a stinking game!”

No, not even the firing of former General Manager and Team President Matt Millen on Sept. 24 could save Detroit from infamous perfection. A move that many believe was a step in the right direction for the hapless Lions.

Millen was just a minor thorn in the Lions’ paw however. The lack of talent on this team is blinding.

Detroit never even mustered a 300-yard passing game this season between quarterbacks Jon Kitna, Dan Orlovsky and Daunte Culpepper. Only twice did running back Kevin Jones eclipse the 100-yard mark and stud wideout Calvin Johnson was the only receiver to record a 100-yard game – doing that five times only because of his uncanny ability.

“I thought this team tried hard all year,” Coach Marinelli stated on Sunday. “I thought they gave it their best; I felt I gave it my best, but sometimes your best is not good enough and it wasn’t good enough this year.”

And it wasn’t good enough for the Detroit Lions organization as they relieved Marinelli of his duties on Monday morning after serving as the head coach for three seasons.

This could be just the beginning. Expect to see plenty of turnover for the Lions roster, coaching staff and front office over the course of the next few months.

The question remains, can this faction of perfect losers turn the ship around? Hope is given by the parity of the NFL including this year’s Dolphins, Ravens and Falcons. These three teams boasted records of 1-15, 3-13 and 4-12 a season ago but all have found themselves in the ‘08 postseason beginning next weekend.

But if the courageous-less Lions continue their dismal ways in ’09, I will be cheering them on for another unwanted record. They have lost 17 straight contests dating back to last season and with 10 consecutive defeats to start next year, Detroit can hold the distinction of losing the most games in NFL history.

Scott Cooley is freelance writer and drops in at 3Daily Winners occasionally.

Monday's Best Basketball Wagering Outlooks

Kendall was 3-1 yesterday in the NFL and called me to say he was sorry about Buffalo not covering and being shutout. I told him with all the winners we picked up from him, not a problem. Sal takes his place today after a strong college basketball weekend and offers his best play. The Top Trend takes a look at Davidson in very challenging spot tonight. The Best System play is remarkable 22-3 in the NBA. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home teams like New Jersey off an upset win as an underdog, against opponent off three or more consecutive road losses. This is a very strong system that is 22-3 ATS, 88 percent since 2004.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Davidson is 12-2 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Sal from the LLC was 5-1 in college hoops this past weekend and is riding Connecticut at -6 in Big East bash this Monday.

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Northwestern Double Digit Dogs to end Bowl Drought

Northwestern has something to prove coming into tonight’s Alamo Bowl game, after enjoying their best campaign since 1996, when they were 9-2 and played in Citrus Bowl. The Wildcats have lost five bowl games in a row, all as underdogs (1-4 ATS) and basically none of them have been close. Northwestern has been out-scored 47 to 28 in those five appearances and could start to take some of Notre Dame’s thunder for bowl futility with another embarrassing defeat in San Antonio.

“I think, if anything, (the bowl drought) will provide a little extra motivation,” senior quarterback C.J. Bacher said. “At the beginning of the year we set out to win a bowl game and we’ve put ourselves in a position to do that.”

Northwestern’s 9-3 record ended up quite a feat, though expectations were higher this season with a solid number of quality returning players. “To be at nine wins right now with an opportunity for number ten, the opportunity to achieve our main goal this year—to win a bowl game—is all right here in front of us,” said coach Pat Fitzgerald, the second-youngest head coach in the nation at 33, in his third season after taking over following the unexpected death of Randy Walker in June 2006. Fitzgerald was part of the 1995 Rose Bowl team, the last Northwestern squad to win 10 games.

Most previous Wildcats teams that have made it to bowl games lacked defense, this group is quite a bit more solid in allowing 19.3 points per game. This Northwestern club has a more aggressive approach on defense with 33 sacks on the season. Despite the lack of success in bowls by the ‘Cats, Big 10 bowlers are 21-11-1 ATS if their opponent is off a loss.

Bookmaker.com has Missouri as a 12.5-point favorite, with a total of 66, despite losing last two games. Offensively, the Tigers are exceptional at 43.2 points per game with quarterback Chase Daniel heaving the pigskin to the likes of receiver Jeremy Maclin and tight end Chase Coffman.
What ended up hurting Missouri as much as anything was the offense was always under pressure to score, since the defense was rather pathetic, allowing 27.5 points per game. In particular, the pass defense was atrocious, ranking 117th in the country, which accounted for the Tigers 9-4 season.

Coach Gary Pinkel was asked if this ended up being a disappointing year. “Well, I don’t think that,” he said. “Do I wish the regular season would have ended up that we were 11-1 instead of 9-3? Yeah, we should have done that. But I think we had a good year.” Missouri is was bombed by Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game 62-21 and is 19-7 ATS after allowing 42 points or more last game.

Senior quarterback Daniel has the right perspective, “We can finish off in style. When was the last time a Missouri team won 10 games back-to-back in history? Never. We still have a chance to make history.” It should be noted Misso is 15-4 ATS after trailing by 17 or more points at the half in last contest.

The Alamo Bowl has been a graveyard for Big 12 teams with 4-10 ATS record, including 3-10 against the spread if they favored against Big 10 teams in any recent bowl matchup.

Northwestern will try to emulate what others have done to Daniel, pressure him into mistakes. If the Missouri QB has time, it will be another long bowl date for the Wildcats. If they can make Daniel uncomfortable, they have the offense to play keep away and move the chains against a porous Tigers D. Coach Fitzgerald can also bring up about his team being dissed, since their position in the conference should have meant an Outback Bowl bid, but those representatives went for attendance and took Iowa because it travels better, despite Northwestern beating them on the road.

Missouri put last year’s Big 12 title loss behind them in 38-7 romp of Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl. Two significant differences were the game was played on New Year’s Day and they were playing a SEC team. This game is just another among the batch and purple and white doesn’t raise the hair on the back of the neck. Nevertheless, the Tigers have covered three straight bowl games.

Kick-off is at 8:00 Eastern on ESPN.

The Final Week of NFL Regular Season

The Atlanta Hawks big fourth quarter cost us a 3-0 record, with the Bulls failing to cover by just two points. 3Daily Winners expects to end the NFL season with a bang and has an 88.5 percent Totals System to start things off. Kendall has been masterful in the NFL all year and offers his best play and the Detroit Lions can make history today in Green Bay where they have not won since 1991, as today’s Top Trend. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY OVER on home teams like Arizona against the total, who are poor rushing team (70-95 rushing yards per game) against an average rushing defense like Seattle (95-125 RY/G) after eight or more games on the season, after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game. This is a remarkable system at 22-3, 88.5 percent the last decade.

Free Football Trend -2) The Detroit Lions are is 0-9 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last three years, with average margin of loss 12.1.

Free Football Selection -3) We been with Kendall all year and he has been good to us (and himself) with 42-24-1 (63.6 percent) NFL record and for his final regular reason top play he has Buffalo at +6.

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Week 17 NFL Betting Info

At this juncture we know the New York Giants, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Carolina and Atlanta are in the playoffs, with the latter two still not having a firm spots based on positioning. This means that seven positions have to be filled on Sunday and a total of nine need specific placements before we can say with certainty after the Sunday Night game, which teams are in or out. This week can be as tough as any for NFL bettors in the regular season with so many possibilities. For the sake of simplicity, we’ll eliminate what ties mean as possibilities in accessing playoff chances. Bookmaker.com provides the Week 17 numbers.

Miami at New York Jets (Jets -2.5, 43)

The Dolphins win AFC East with a win and the Jets win division with victory and New England loss.

Keys to the Game-
Chad Pennington can stick it to his former team, for not having faith in him to be playoff quarterback. Miami is 5-2 SU and ATS on the road and HUGE key to their success protecting the football. If they commit one or less turnovers, they will break the NFL's single-season record for fewest turnovers in a season. The Dolphins red zone defense needs to hold up one more game, already the best in 53.3 in stopping opponents from scoring touchdown. Can Miami overcome 5-15 ATS record in road games revenging a home loss? The Jets are long shot and they know it, but better to take somebody down with you. Brett Favre has looked every bit of 39 years old since the colder temperatures have developed and he has to have big game for New York to even have chance. The Jets are 9-3 ATS in season finales.

New England at Buffalo (Bills +5.5, 39)

New England win the AFC East with a win and Miami loss or makes the playoffs with a win and Baltimore loss.

Keys to the Game-
New England has gotten off to flying starts the last two weeks and can take Buffalo out of the game early with another quick start. Matt Cassel is playing exceptionally and the defense has looked better with stronger pass rush. The Patriots are 10-2 ATS as a road favorite of seven points or less and must contain Buffalo special teams or this gets dicey. Bill Belicheck’s defense needs to harass QB Trent Edwards into mistakes, if they do, New England moves to 11-6 and 11-5-1 ATS in Buffalo.

Jacksonville at Baltimore (Ravens -11, 37.5)

Baltimore clinches wild card berth with a win or if Miami and New England lose.

Keys to the Game-
Jacksonville could be dangerous opponent for Baltimore, playing with nothing to lose and being huge underdogs. The Ravens will want to break the Jaguars will and have to take away their running game, while running the pigskin themselves with second ranked run offense at 150.3 yards per game. Baltimore needs to kick-start Willis McGahee, since he is true inside-outside runner, compared to Le’Ron McClain. Baltimore is 11-4 ATS on the season and is 8-1 ATS in home games off a road win since 2006.

N.Y. Giants at Minnesota (Vikings -7, 42)

Minnesota wins NFC North with a win or Chicago loss.

Keys to the Game-
The Giants has clinched what they needed and might not bring best effort, but that doesn’t mean Tom Coughlin won’t have his team compete, especially with a week off. Minnesota must reestablish Adrian Peterson, who has been a bobbling machine in recent weeks. They need him to protect the ball better, yet not be too conservative a running threat. Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson went back to making poor decisions last week at crucial times, the Giants are too good not take advantage of his mistakes. Jackson must be astute in the passing game. Atlanta only has 98 yards rushing, nonetheless had 32 attempts in the Metrodome, this can’t happen again against the Giants or they move to 15-2 ATS facing teams with winning records.

Chicago at Houston (Texans -3, 46.5)

Chicago wins NFC North with a victory and Minnesota loss or takes Wild Card with win and Dallas and Tampa Bay both lose.

Keys to the Game-
Chicago swept their three-game homestand, yet was far from impressive, especially in the latter two. The last two games were overtime wins versus New Orleans and Green Bay and they were out-gained 670 to 436 total yards. Houston came up flat after four consecutive wins and five covers in a row at Oakland. They will want to finish .500 and have best ever home record at 6-2. The Bears either will have to keep up scoring wise with the Texans averaging 25 points per game at home or cling to the ball with time of possession and ring up enough points. Chicago desperately needs a pass rush on what should be a fast track to offset the talented Texans perimeter game. The Bears are 8-19 ATS versus offensive teams averaging six or more yards a play and must come up big.

Carolina at New Orleans (Saints +1.5, 51.5)

Carolina clinches NFC South and first round bye with a win or Atlanta loss. A defeat and Atlanta victory sends them to the Wild Card round next week.

Keys to the Game-
Talk about your tough situations for Carolina! A victory means a week off, followed by a home game for the Panthers. A loss means playing on the road next week on the presumption Atlanta handles St. Louis, saddled with two straight defeats. This has to be accomplished against a live home underdog who has won four of six, with the two losses totaling six points. The Saints will be throwing the ball around; with Drew Brees chasing Dan Marino’s season passing yards record. This means Julius Peppers and the front four must bring pressure, with the Saints gunning for them. Though Jake Delhomme could likely hit a few deep shots with Steve Smith versus Saints secondary, Carolina would be better served to run the ball and limit their possessions. The Cats are 40-16 ATS vs. defensive teams who give up 24 or more points a game.

Oakland at Tampa Bay (Buccaneers -13, 39.5)

Tampa Bay clinches Wild Card with a win and Dallas defeat.

Keys to the Game-
Tampa Bay should win this game by running the ball and having Jeff Garcia pick apart Oakland with short passes. Long time defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin should have fun dialing up blitzes against JaMarcus Russell. Only concern here is covering big number for a Bucs team that has lost three in a row. Maybe the Raiders 0-7 ATS record in non-conference games over the last two years will help.

Dallas at Philadelphia (Eagles -1, 42.5)

Dallas clinches Wild Card with a win or Chicago and Tampa Bay both lose. Philadelphia clinches Wild Card with win and losses by Tampa Bay, Minnesota and or Chicago.

Keys to the Game-
It would behoove an emotionally fragile team like Dallas to play well early against an Eagles squad that's sure to be fired up. Philadelphia has outscored opponents 82-50 in the opening 15 minutes. The Cowboys have to pick up the Eagles blitzes and Tony Romo can not continue to play like an average Joe quarterback. Defensively, Dallas had been solid until last week, they need to control Brian Westbrook and make Donovan McNabb jumpy in the pocket. The Boys are stellar 8-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3. Philadelphia gave up on the running game again too easily in loss to Washington. With the Eagles wide receivers dropping seven catch-able passes last week, the receivers focus has to be improved no matter who is available. The defense has to harass Romo who has thrown one touchdown and five interceptions in two December meetings with Philly. The Birds are 8-1 ATS off a NFC East loss rival over the last three years.