While in college, I got a job as a cave guide one summer at a regional theme park, Silver Dollar City, in Branson, MO. It is based on an 1880’s Ozark Mountain village and was built around a large cave that originally was believed would be a great source of marble. Marble was never found in the cave but a St. Louis entrepreneur, Henry T. Blow (real name, honest), made a fortune mining bat guano in the cave and changed its name from Marble Cave to Marvel Cave. I quickly learned how to get a group of 60 people through the cave in our allotted one-hour time frame. After about a week of being sincere and passionate answering tourists’ questions extensively, I became jaded. It was hard to tolerate people continuously asking me “how long did it take to dig this cave” and “what would we do if an earthquake hit?” I discovered working in a theme park produced an “us against the tourist” mentality rather quickly.Instead of talking about nature’s underground springs, I told people the water coming down the wall in the cave was from a leak in the bathroom above. Kids learned from me it was okay to lick stalactites and that they tasted like lemonade.
You can only imagine the other ideas came up with, yes, I was a terrible cave guide. But, more importantly, I was an efficient cave guide. I got people through the cave and I made every moment count. I walked while answering questions so people had to walk with me. Not to waste time, I used a catchy phrase, “as the mites go up, the tights go down”, to explain the differences between stalactites and stalagmites. I didn’t lose tourists wandering away from the tour. Lemmings, and tourists, like to keep moving and don’t enjoy being enclosed in small areas.
Just like in giving cave tours, efficiency is very important in college basketball. Basically, efficiency is accomplishing something with a minimum expenditure of time and effort.
Offensive efficiency is a much better method of measuring how good a team is on offense rather than just looking at how many points they score in a game. A team’s offensive efficiency is simply the points they score per 100 offensive possessions. A team who plays at a very fast pace might score a lot of points but not be very efficient offensively.
A perfect example of this is Georgia Tech this year. The Yellow Jackets play at the 16th fastest pace in the country, 73.3. This number represents the average number of possessions Georgia Tech gets in a game this season. They are averaging 74.1 points per game, a pretty respectable number. However, their offensive efficiency rating, adjusted for added weight of recent games, strength of opponent’s played, and game locations, is only 99.2. That number means Georgia Tech does not average one point per possession.
Compare this to Niagara who plays at a slower pace, 71.7, but has a considerably better OE rating of 108.5. Even with a slower tempo, the Purple Aces average 5.8 points per game more than the Techsters. Georgia Tech is 4-8 ATS, Niagara is 12-5.
One of the greatest advantages a handicapper can attain is when he has spotted a team turning it around. That can be a team getting better or a team getting worse.
Teams with first-year coaches can take a number of games to learn the new systems. Learning a new offense or playing a different style of defense is a task that improves with experience. New players are becoming acclimated to each other and are performing more like a team instead of five individuals. Sometimes mid-season transfers, previously injured players, or formerly academically suspended players are now able to play.
Many positive turnarounds happen during the end of the year holidays when students aren’t in class and there are no rules for how long a team can practice in one day. Most teams are playing limited games during this span so the players practically live in the gym. Without class and most students not around, distractions are limited.
By paying attention to the offensive and defensive efficiency ratings on a game-by-game basis, sometimes a turnaround can be spotted before the oddsmaker notices it and adjusts the lines accordingly. This gives the cognizant capper an advantage and he can find extra value in some games.
UNC-Greensboro of the Southern Conference has one of the worst offensive efficiency ratings in the country. Incidentally, the national average for the 344 Division 1 schools is 100.2. Excluding a game against NAIA Webber International University, in 10 games, the Spartans had not achieved higher than a 94.4 offensive efficiency rating in a game. Their highest point total for any game was 62 points even though they had a middle-of-the-pack pace rating of 67.1. Their straight-up record was 2-10 and a dismal 1-8 ATS.
In a road conference game on January 8th, UNC-Greensboro was a 16-point underdog to Western Carolina. They lost to a good Western Carolina squad by only five points. What was most impressive was a 113.0 OE rating the Spartans achieved.
Their next game two days later was at Appalachian St. as a 13.5 point dog. UNC-Greensboro won in overtime shooting over 50% for the first time this season and even bested their previous game’s OE with a 117.7 rating. These two games improved their OE rating from 336th 82.3 to their current #316, 88.6.
What is happening in Greensboro? First, freshman 6-7 F Damian Eargle was inserted into the starting line-up playing the most minutes for him of the season and scoring 25 points in their win. Turnovers were also cut by ten below their seasonal average.
Second, this looks like a team coming together. One of the school’s greatest players of all time, two-time SoCon Player of the Year, Kyle Hines, used up his eligibility last year. Hines was everything to this team last season scoring 19.1 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 95 blocks, and making all-conference four years in a row. Add the loss of two other starters, your second leading scorer and top two assist men, and you get a team close to starting from scratch.
While it is very possible the Spartans have a letdown in their next game after their overtime upset, UNC-Greensboro is going to be a team I keep my eye on.
Everybody always loves systems. Systems seem to be a short-cut to having to do the extra research and work in handicapping a game. But, the bottom line is winning and it really doesn’t matter how you got there. What sports bettor wouldn’t love to have a child that could pick winners at the blazing success rate Homer Simpson had in his daughter Lisa a few years ago in that classic episode. (Well, by my standards it was a classic)
While this isn’t a system for blindly picking teams, it is a guideline you can use for helping you select winners in college hoops. The basic premise is to only play on the team that has an adjusted offensive efficiency rating four points or higher than their opponent. There are system exclusions such as don’t play on double-digit favorites no matter what the difference in OE ratings are. There are a number of other school-specific exclusions such as don’t play against Bradley or Nebraska at home.
It is a good way to help narrow large cards down. This does not mean you should ignore schools that don’t have at least a four-point differential. By watching teams’ offensive efficiency ratings It helps keep you in tune with how schools are doing and not judge them by how many points they score. You will realize quickly you usually don’t want to lay a number of points on a team that has a low OE. Low OE teams can go on scoring droughts due to excessive turnovers, poor shooting, not getting to the free throw line very often, and having a poor FT%. For totals players, squads with a poor OE rating are ones you want to consider putting on your Under list.
Paying close attention to teams offensive efficiency ratings will help your handicapping in a number of ways. Just don’t ask a cave guide what OE ratings mean.
Note - These ratings are at http://www.kenpom.com/.
Jim Kruger is the main man behind Vegas Sports Authority.
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