Cooley's Comtemplations -103 Damnations

One big name leaked into our laps so may we please have the remaining 103?

On Monday afternoon, New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez confessed to using performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs) for three seasons during his illustrious baseball career.

This is about as big of news as there has been since steroids, HGH and PEDs entered the diamond of the public eye. Baseball fans across the nation have been waiting for a confession like this, and the renaissance of cleaner games on the sandlot is eagerly anticipated by all.

But rest assured, there are many more dark days to come before the Steroid Era is gone.

This is a period in baseball that will never be forgotten. It will be talked about by our children, our children's children and their children's children. The game will eventually rid itself of this disease with its deep and rich history, and it looks like now could be the beginning of the cleansing process.

But more players must follow the lead Alex Rodriguez provided.

Rodriguez has been a Mariner, a Ranger and a Yankee, but on Monday he was a sacrificial lamb. He tossed aside his pride and said, "I am pretty tired of being stupid and selfish and the truth needed to be told a long time ago, and I'm glad it's coming out today. I was young, I was stupid, I was naive. I am very sorry and deeply regretful."

Rodriguez seemed to be sincerely remorseful for taking illegal PEDs from 2001 to 2003 while playing for Texas. As he gave his testimony to Peter Gammons sitting in a chair with a blue sweater and white collar, he appeared to be relieved, scared, contemplative and emotional all at the same time. He even began to choke-up when speaking about his fans "that will never look at (him) the same."

Perhaps his white collar in the interview had an unknowing symbolic significance. Maybe it proves that even celebrities are normal people, just like the white collar worker who is prone to human error.

Rodriguez coming clean in front of the nation is commendable, but he should have done it sooner. When Jason Giambi and Andy Pettitte admitted their transgressions a new found respect from fans, coaches, players and the media surfaced.

Over time, this will most likely happen with Rodriguez as well. But now while the iron is hot, the other 103 players should raise their hands and also confess to what they did.

In 2003, Major League Baseball gave an unannounced drug test to a group of active players to see if mandatory, random testings were needed in the sport. After results were gathered and it was determined baseball had a steroid problem, MLB was going to destroy the 104 positive samples, but the federal government issued a subpoena and the list was taken by investigators.

This testing was a secret screening where the results were supposed to be kept confidential and no punishments for positive results were to be handed out. The players' samples were even locked away in one location while the list was stored in another.

One can't help but image what sort of encasement the list and samples were kept in and what kind of credentials a person needed to access them? Did the key holder have to go through a series of fingerprint and retina scans to get to the list?

It kind of sounds like Area 51 with the extra terrestrials and the government hiding everything.

The same place one might find the remaining 103 culprits who cheated the game, the fans and their teams.

Why is it fair for one player to be thrown to the wolves but not the others? Why was it that only Rodriguez's name was divulged from this confidential investigation? Is it so terrible to ask for others to come forward?

Honesty has always been and will always be the best policy.

Houston Astros shortstop Miguel Tejada appear in court on Wednesday for lying to Congressional investigators when he told them he had not taken PEDs during his baseball career.

It looks as if Tejada is one of the lingering 103. Perhaps baseball fans will be able to cross a second name off the infamous list.

Beyond the shadows where the cowardly will remain silent is a tiny golf clap of applause for what Alex Rodriguez accomplished on Monday. The praise can be heard over the continuous song of sarcastic pity played by the critics who hold the world's smallest violin.

"Regardless of what we want to mask and say and justify there is absolutely no excuse for what I did," stated Rodriguez. "If I was a fan, I would be very pissed off."

We are very pissed off. But we are also human and have the ability to forgive, but that begins with more players admitting guilt.

Rodriguez got the monkey off his back, now we need to get the elephant out of the room.


Scott Cooley is Freelance Writer who shares his wisdom here.

Betting on Abe Lincoln's Birthday

I’ll be getting to record keeping soon, but 3Daily Winners have had a number of nice short runs since the beginning of 2009, without any bad losing streaks. Yesterday’s 2-1 mark gives us 6-2 record the last three days, plus the Tar Heels win that was not official. Today’s Free Play is a Philly special, involving two teams with rich basketball tradition. The Top Trend failed yesterday and takes a look at if Notre Dame will extend its losing streak to the longest in 44 years. The Top System is about betting college basketball totals and is exciting 25-3. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY UNDER when the total is 129.5 or less, with a team off three straight wins against conference rivals, with a winning percentage of 80 percent or higher (Utah State in this case), playing a marginal losing team (40 to 49 percent), which is Idaho. This total system is 25-3, 89.3 percent over the last dozen years and has picked up two more wins this season.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Louisville Cardinals are 14-2 ATS in road lined games over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) The LCC member was correct last evening and comes right back taking St. Joseph’s to beat Big 5 member Temple.

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The Latest info from 3Daily Winners

I have to admit, feel bad for Sal, he went 4-1 last night in college basketball and the only one he had wrong was his top play Wichita State here. But those are the rules at 3Daily Winners and a new Free Play is forthcoming after 2-1 day. Yesterday’s prefect Trend was winner, thus I dug another out in the NBA, situated where Mickey lives in Central Florida. LeBron and the boys have lost two in a row, read what the Best System believes will happen tonight to the Cavs. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites like Cleveland, who have a seven point or higher score differential per game, against an pedestrian club like Phoenix, who is (+) or (-) three points in same category, after a loss by six points or less. Color the Cavs 25-4 ATS, 86.2 percent in this system, which has added 3-0 record this year.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Orlando Magic are 9-0 ATS when playing with two days rest this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) A person from the Left Coast Connection who prefers privacy is 14-3 the last three days in all his bets, says the Oklahoma Sooners are the play tonight. FYI- 10 members on North Carolina and three on the Dukies.

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North Carolina at Duke Preview

It all started on January 24, 1920, when North Carolina beat Trinity College (which four years later was change to Duke University) 36-25. Since that contest, this matchup has grown to be voted the third best rivalry in all of sports according to ESPN poll taken this decade. The intensity of the rivalry is augmented by the proximity of the two universities, roughly eight miles apart and is further enhanced with North Carolina being a public school and Duke a private university.

Just the two names of these schools evoke the joy of watching college basketball. North Carolina leads the all-time series 128-97 and annually these are among the best teams in the country. These two schools have played 123 consecutive games with one or both being in the AP Top 20 or Top 25. (It changed to the latter years ago) Duke and North Carolina have met 64 times when both teams were ranked in the Top 25, with the series tied, 32-32.

Though always a fierce rivalry, the modern era of hatred had its roots in the early 1960’s when Duke star and eventual national player of the year Art Heyman got into a fight on the court with North Carolina's Larry Brown, (that’s right, the long-time and current Charlotte Bobcats coach) which resulted in suspensions for both players. With the evolution of cable television in the mid-1980’s, these encounters were regularly broadcast to a larger audience, making coaches Dean Smith and Mike Krzyzewski even bigger stars. The Mar. 4, 2006 battle is the most viewed college basketball game ever on ESPN.

The number of legendary games are too numerous to mention, but they helped cultivate Dick Vitale’s broadcasting career and he has shown his appreciation countless times with his admiration by name-dropping each school at almost every broadcast he does.

With a couple of losses and a few closer than expected contests, North Carolina (21-2, 10-12 ATS) is no longer the most feared team in the country. Though extremely talented, the game to game intensity is not always there, granted, this won’t be an issue for this matchup. If the Tar Heels bring their A-Game, possibly only two or three teams in college basketball are capable of beating them, period.

Coach Roy Williams has two players that can drive the Cameron Crazies nuts, Tyler Hansbrough and Wayne Ellington. Hansbrough and teammate Danny Greene are trying to become the first players since Tim Duncan and Rusty LaRue marched into Durham and won four years in a row. Those Wake Forest teams did so five straight times from 1993-97. "You said it right there - it's winning," Hansbrough said. "Any time you beat them, here or there, it means a lot."

Ellington is nifty shooter and can stroke it with the best in college basketball. Duke has had their problems with guards that have two-way abilities to score, like Ellington. The Tar Heels are 9-2 but just 2-8 ATS playing with three or more days rest.

For Duke (20-3, 11-10-1 ATS) to win, they must keep up defensive intensity, like they have shown most of the year, but not recently. Three of the Blue Devils last four opponents have scored 70 or more points and they have failed to cover on each occasion. On offense, fewer forced three-point shots and more trips to the foul line would help. Duke can not afford to just have Gerald Henderson and Kyle Singler do the scoring. Guards Greg Paulus, Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer must make stronger contributions and center Brian Zoubek will have to have eight points and seven rebounds to be a factor. The Blue Devils are 20-6 ATS when they score 81 or more points in a game over the last two seasons.

Swingman Gerald Henderson is the type of player that can been bothersome to the Tar Heels, being able to score as slasher or bury the jumper. Duke has similar record to UNC with rest at 11-2, however is much better against the spread at 8-4.

Bookmaker.com has listed Duke as two-point home underdogs. The Dukies are 6-2 ATS off a non-cover this season and North Carolina are 5-2 ATS if their opponent has a winning home record The Tar Heels best shot every game, is imposing will on opponent. If the other teams starts playing aggressive defense, this band of Heels will sag for periods when they can’t score. Being as talented as they are, North Carolina is 7-1 and 5-3 ATS in true road games.

Duke is 14-0 at home (6-6-1 ATS) this year and is 7-4 SU in Durham against the team in the Carolina blue jerseys, but just 2-9 ATS. ESPN of course has the telecast starting at 9 Eastern and maybe they will play that unusual clip of Coach K talking about never making the eight mile trip to Chapel Hill.

Bomb Pops and Three Point Bombs

Growing up during the summer, one of the biggest thrills was the arrival of the ice cream man in the neighborhood. The most popular frozen treat was the bomb pop, a popsicle shaped like something ready to drop from a B-17 bomber. They were big and came in a number of flavors including sky blue, which nobody could ever figure out what sky blue tasted like, but eating something with an aqua tint was pretty cool when you were eight years old.

Years later in high school, a friend, Hunter Leathers, asked if I wanted a summer job at Merritt Foods in Kansas City, KS. The owner, James Merritt, had invented and trademarked the bomb pop. I would be working at the only plant in the world that manufactured bomb pops! The job also came with the benefit of all you could eat for free!

The bomb pop syrup went into molds in a large wheel that slowly rotated. The bomb pops froze as the wheel turned. Towards the end of the rotation, an arm would come down injecting a stick into each bomb pop. For some reason, the last stick at the end of a row always went into the bomb pop crooked. My job was to sit there for eight hours a day straightening that last stick. I was a specialist at the factory, a “stick straightener”.

The NBA also has specialists. Some specialists are defensive stoppers, enforcers, or good ball handlers who can shoot free throws well late in the game. The specialist with the most influence on a game is the three-point specialist.

The three-pointer has seen a quantum leap in popularity these past ten years. To begin with, teams are putting up 36.5% more three-point attempts since the beginning of the 1998 season.

In the 1998-99 season, the league average was 13.16 three-point attempts per team in a game.
This season that average is 17.96 downtown shots going up by a team per game. Before you start thinking that part of the reason for the increase is the pace of the game has increased tremendously over the past ten seasons, be mindful that the number of overall field goal attempts in a game has gone from 78.2 to 79.9, an increase of 2.2%. Also, with the increase in attempts, the shooting percentage has improved significantly from 33.9% ten seasons ago to 36.6% this year. Has the players’ shooting improved or has the defense gotten worse over the past ten years? That’s a question for another day.

The gap between the worse three-point shooting team to the best in the league has narrowed measurably from 10.9% ten-seasons ago to just 7.3%. Interestingly enough, in the 1998-99
season the Philadelphia 76ers were the team clanging the most 3’s off of the rim, a paltry 26.4% average. Philly resides at the bottom this year at 32.6%.

Many of the better teams in the league this year are hitting a high accuracy in their bombs from downtown, 39% or better. These include the league leader, Orlando at 39.9%, and San Antonio, New Orleans, and Boston. Phoenix, Cleveland, and Portland are the next three from the top. Except for Phoenix at 57.1%, all of these teams are winning above 60% of their games.

In looking at the worst five teams in shooting the three, only one, Philadelphia, has a winning percentage above .350. The other four, Washington, LA Clippers, Memphis, and Minnesota all shoot 34% or worse on their three-pointers.

Those facts obviously raise the question of the influence on a team’s success in defending behind the arc. Are the bottom teams in the NBA also on the bottom in defensive ability against the three-pointer and visa versa? While the bottom five does include Golden State, Sacramento, and Washington again, a near .500 team, New Jersey, is down there along with a 60%+ squad, Portland. Four of the top five in defending the arc were all 60%+ winners, Orlando, Houston, Boston, and Cleveland, but it is interesting to see the number one defensive squad is the Chicago Bulls, a team several games below .500.

With the weight of importance of the three-pointer increasing over the past decade, how can we profit from this?

Since the beginning of the 2005 season, the team who made more three-pointers won straight-up 63.4% of the time while covering the point spread at a 61.8% rate. That makes sense.

However, if a team made more 3’s than their competitor in a game but the opponent shot a higher percentage on their three-pointers, the team who made more baskets but shot worse only won 41.9% of the games straight-up and covered just 38.1% of the time. Those games went over the lined total 55.3% of the time. The percentage of shots made has a larger influence than the number of 3’s a team drained. If the optimum happens and you make more 3’s and shoot a better percentage than your foe in a game, your winning percentage improves to 69.5% and your ATS mark is a sweet 68.5%.

It seems like common sense to anticipate a game between two poor shooting three-point squads, 33.0% or worse for their season-to-date average, to have a tendency to go Under the lined total. In reality, the exact opposite occurs. Such a game between two poor three-point shooting squads has gone Over the total 57.1% of the time since the start of the 2005 campaign. That mark can be improved to 61.5% going Over, 75-47, if the home team went Over the total in their previous game. One last final improvement to a 65.8% winning rate for playing the Over is if both teams have at least a day of rest from their last game played.And, if you think a game between two good shooting long-range clubs, 36.5% or better for the season, will be a good bet to go Over the lined total, you should think twice. There might be other reasons to bet the Over, but just because both teams can drain 3’s at a good rate isn’t enough as the Under actually happens in 53% of those matches.

A team having good success in their previous game from long-range has some good wagering advantages in their next contest. If a team made more than ten 3’s hitting over 50% of their attempts winning the game by more than ten points, they are 91-69 Over in their next game, 56.9%. We can bump that up to 63.8% if our team happens to be a home favorite in that next game. Instead of being a home fave, if our team is an away dog the Over still does well, 64.4%, and they also cover the point spread 60% of the time.

A similar situation with our team making more than 10 three-pointers at a rate over 50% in their previous game but lost that game, has done poorly in their next game, only winning 39.1% of the time and covering the spread just 41.7% of the time. Having both teams hitting 50%+ from deep with each squad sinking six or more 3’s has produced a poor next-game ATS rate of 36.2% for the loser of the previous game if he is a home favorite.

The Under is also a good play winning 60.4% of the time in those contests.Another example to remember is that a team who shoots over 50% on 3’s two games in a row only covers the point spread 41.3% of the time in their next game.Logic says that a team who does well from downtown in their previous game will have expectations of continued success hoisting shots deep from the perimeter. False expectations of being able to maintain that high of success level leads to failure more times than not. The influence of the three-point shot has increased over the years. The most successful teams are the ones who can both shoot it well and defend against it.


Jim Kruger fires from deep for Vegas Sports Authority.

3Daily Winners for February 10

Great way to start the week at 2-0 and the LCC had two out of three winners on consensus basis. Another rather slow day for system plays, however we found one that fits over the last three years in the NBA. The perfect Trend as correct yesterday and we have another, this time in college hoops. Sal remains very strong in college basketball has his Best Bet for today. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home teams like Atlanta off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, playing with two days rest. In the past three years this system is 26-5 ATS, 83.3 percent, with average margin of victory 10.1 points per game.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Old Dominion is 0-10 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Sal was recently in this spot and thou he missed his play; it hasn’t slowed his down, now at 17-5 in last 22 plays. His top play for Tuesday is Wichita State.

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Betting Lessons Learned from the Hardwood

How could you not come away impressed with how Memphis completely bottled up Gonzaga’s offense. The Bulldogs had no good looks, never got close to an offensive rhythm. The difference in quickness resembled college vs high school teams. Not putting the Tigers back in the Final Four, however this is a team on the come and oddsmakers are going to be adding points the rest of the season.

The SEC has caught a lot of grief and deservedly so. One team that has quietly emerged is the LSU Tigers. They have the conferences best record at 7-1 (6-1-1 ATS) and have bountiful experience with upperclassmen like Marcus Thornton, Tasmin Mitchell and Garrett Temple who were all on the team that went to the Final Four. With the SEC down and the Tigers losing by 30 at Utah and recently by 10 at home to Xavier, this is hardly an elite team, but they still have time to come together and be a force in March and should keep covering conference spreads.

While talking SEC, with Alabama’s loss at LSU, this makes it 17 consecutive road defeats for the Crimson Tide in conference play. (6-11 ATS)

Notre Dame’s performance (or lack there of) looked like the Irish football team when it flew West the last several years to face USC. No determination, no desire. Losing seven games in a row with do that after you have been in the Top 10. Luke Harangody is a great college player, yet obviously, not a locker room lawyer who shake up his teammates. No fight left in the Irish, being strictly play against.

Arizona State has won four Pac-10 road games in a row (4-0 ATS) for the first time in 28 years. True.

Two of the best teams in the Atlantic 10 were upset this past weekend. Xavier and Dayton both could have been looking ahead to this Wednesday’s matchup and got clipped in unusual fashion. The Musketeers were beaten because DuQuesne shot a blistering 81 percent in the first half and lost by four as five-point favorites. The next day, Dayton was in position to be tied for first place in the A-10 and they never came out of the locker room at halftime, outscored by Charlotte 46-29, who won for just the second time in league play.

Florida State is 18-5 (11-5-1 ATS) and four of their losses have come against North Carolina, Duke, Miami-Fl. and Pittsburgh. The Seminoles are the tallest team in the country and wore down Clemson at there place, closing the contest on 23-4 run to pull the upset. This is a dangerous underdog.

If anyone finds the Texas, Syracuse and Georgetown teams from early January, please make sure to call respective coaches, each is wondering where they disappeared to.

In the NBA, arguably the most impressive performance all season was the Los Angeles Lakers sweeping Boston and Cleveland on the road. They did so without Andrew Bynum and pedestrian to sub-par efforts from a somewhat ill Kobe Bryant. The Lakers demonstrated mental toughness not normally associated with this club.

You can’t help but feel for the Minnesota losing Al Harrington, back to being a doormat after 10-4 and 9-4-1 ATS January.

Did the Clippers really win back-to-back road games by a total of 45 points or was I just punch drunk from going a few a rounds with Chris Brown? That is the first time the Clips have won two road games consecutively since Nov. 6-7, 2007.

Monday's Best Bets + Rant

Good way to close the week with a 2-1 Sunday. Today’s all-around sports window is a little light and no conventional systems are noteworthy. I’ll step out a bit, thanks to our friends at StatFox and present a 80 percent system in college basketball, focusing just on the first half of the game, which has scintillating results this season. The Top Trend comes from the NBA and looks after how the Sixers play at home this month. Good Luck.

I’d like your opinion on something I noticed that started a couple of years ago in college basketball and is common place today. A few years ago, the coaches thru the NCAA rules committee changed the timeout status to include a grand total of six timeouts per team plus media timeouts. (There are specific rules in place for when a coach calls a 75-second timeout as opposed to 30-second, which eliminates media timeout. Yes, it is confusing) With all these timeouts the flow of the game is interrupted on a continual basis and virtually every coach will call a time out at the first hint the opposing team will go off on 6-0 run.

This really makes the game choppier and is another example of young people being coddled. Ben Howland of UCLA was the first coach I really noticed calling several timeouts in the first half of a game. Though I agree in principle with the idea you can’t necessarily win the game in the first half, but you can certainly lose it, the players need to learn to fight through a bit of adversity to become better players and team, instead of the coach calling time out at the first sign of trouble.
Besides the flow, these coaches who are paid to win, will often now overuse timeouts to stay in games and will have just one or two once the under four minute media timeout is taken.

Wouldn’t it be more beneficial to have three or possibly four timeouts in the final minutes, when the game is really on the line? The coaches are so consumed with getting to winning time; they waste a valuable commodity when they need it the most.

Consider a tight ball game could have a tie-score with a minute to go and had been close throughout. Because of the nature of basketball, runs occur and each team might have had a lead by seven points as some juncture, yet the head coach needlessly had so little faith in his players to fight thru a dull period, he kept calling timeouts and now with the game in the balance, he’s got one T.O. left.

Do you agree, disagree or could care less. Chime in.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON road underdogs like Kansas, vs. the first half line (Kansas +2 presumably), off three straight wins against conference rivals, against opponent off two or more consecutive road wins. The record on this unique system is 44-11 ATS and white hot at 7-0 this season.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Philadelphia 76ers are 10-0 ATS in home games in February games over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) With nobody I would describe as hot in wagering at the moment, three Left Coast Connection consensus plays. The Missouri Tigers at 75 percent and the Calgary Flames and Charlotte Bobcats at 100 percent. (The latter two each had five bettors)

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ESPN's Rivalry Week Starts with Bettors Paradise

The worldwide leader in sports is big on marketing themes and starts with a doozy pair of college hoops games Monday night. The first game of Rivalry Week is the Backyard Brawl, between West Virginia and Pittsburgh, followed immediately by the Border War in the Midwest, which has Kansas and Missouri doing battle. No matter the stakes or reputations, the intensity is always electric and they will be heightened with national cable television appearances and frenzied crowds. College basketball bettors can test their skills and watch the outcome of two heated confrontations.

West Virginia at Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh (21-2, 11-6 ATS) easily handled West Virginia 79-67 as a “pick” in part one of this year’s Backyard Brawl and they are solid eight-point favorites at Bookmaker.com to finish the Mountaineers off again at home. The key was their ability to work the offense inside-out, using the frontcourt, with Sam Young scoring inside and making outside shots to keep West Virginia off balance. The Panthers big men stayed at home in the paint, instead of wandering outside, and it paid off. DeJuan Blair has been a beast of late, scoring 24.3 points and ripping down 14.7 rebounds in last three contests. This is Panthers basketball and it is this type action that has them playing so well, with 8-1 ATS record in home games after two straight games giving up nine or less offensive rebounds.

With the arrival of February, one thing is apparent; West Virginia (16-7, 9-11 ATS) is part of a group of Big East teams that is good, but not elite. They can pull upsets when they outwork opponents, however when the game is tight or they trail, the ‘Teers don’t have answers.

“As of right now we are ninth in our league and that’s not good enough,” Mountaineers coach Bob Huggins told the school’s official athletic Web site. “We have got to win some games here and make a move here in the second half of the conference schedule.”

This West Virginia club isn’t built to play in high scoring affairs as 2-8 ATS mark versus offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a game this season shows. "We're just not scoring the ball," said guard Alex Ruoff, trying to explain where the deficiencies are. "We don't have that guy to take over the game the way Joe [Alexander] did last year."

The Mountaineers have to take the momentum of wasting Providence 86-59 and use it to their advantage like in the past; with an 11-2 ATS record off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last three seasons. Nevertheless, West Virginia is 1-7 and 3-4-1 ATS at Pittsburgh since 1997.

Kansas at Missouri

When it comes to rivalries, this Big 12 battle does not receive nearly enough publicity. The fans of Kansas and Missouri truly do hate each other and the players brought in from other areas of the country quickly learn what the “Border War” means. Despite losing all five starters from its national championship team, Kansas coach Bill Self has nicely cultivated a fresh crop of ambitious youngsters.

The Jayhawks (19-4, 12-6 ATS) are playing with the same steely determination and JC transfer Mario Little has gotten healthy, adding depth to Kansas. As expected, the Jayhawks are playing remarkable defense, holding opponents to 38.2 percent shooting and are 4-1 ATS against teams averaging 84 or more points a game.

The Jayhawks are off to their best start in the Big 12 in four years (8-0 and 7-1 ATS) and are playing game four of five, out of seven on the road. Kansas is 15-6 ATS after seven or more consecutive wins and 6-0 ATS versus teams outscoring opponents by four or points per game after 15 had been played on the season.

Missouri (20-4, 10-7 ATS) is improving under coach Mike Anderson and they have reestablished home court advantage at Mizzou Arena, where they are 14-0 and 5-2 ATS scoring over 90 points per game. Defensive pressure is a constant in Anderson’s system and he wants to keep adding pieces to the Tigers assortment of different techniques for turning up pressure. Opposing teams convert less than 38 percent of attempts in Columbia and Missouri is 15-5 ATS in home games vs. top caliber foes outscoring their opponents by 12 or points a contest, past the mid-point of the season.

The Tigers were a popular play against team Saturday at Iowa State, but showed newfound mental toughness in 82-68 win as nine-point chalk, behind DeMarre Carroll career-high 31 points. Missouri reached the 20-win mark for the first time in six years.

Coach Anderson knows Kansas is a smart team that can find open shots even against the Tigers press. Mizzou will have to get the ball out of Sherrod Collins hands and force others to make plays. Missouri is a 4.5-point favorite and is 7-3-1 ATS at home against KU.

Bounce Back Sunday at 3Daily Winners

The one bright spot was from our Midwest contact, who was on the nose about UW-Milwaukee, thanks friend. He helped what was otherwise a pretty dismal day at 1-3. I have to admit, I was shocked yesterday’s system wasn’t close and I took a good jolt to the wagering account on otherwise what was a decent day.

Paul Buck returns after going thru one of the worst losing periods in the NBA of his wagering life and is warming back up and has Lakers/Cavs Free play. The Top Trend doesn’t involve an A-List team, yet who wants to argue with 100 percent. Have a make sense system play in college hoops that is 81.1 percent. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST a road team like Boston College, revenging a home loss vs opponent (Wake Forest in this case) off two or more consecutive upset losses as a road favorite. Since 1997, this system is 30-7 ATS. 81.1 percent and is 2-0 this year.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Canisius is 0-8 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pick over the last three seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) After a terrible spell, Paul is back, having hit seven of last nine NBA games and he on Cleveland at -4.5 today.

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Michael Phelps stoned by the media

Is anyone else getting tired of seeing our Olympic hero Michael Phelps being crucified by the mainstream media?

I know I am and was disgusted to see this poll question on SportsCenter Thursday night:

Do you think less of Michael Phelps after what he did?

Ummm...let me think about that...NO WAY! He actually gained some ground in my book because now I don't think of him as a dorky swimmer kid.

Just because Phelps likes to party every once in awhile doesn't mean he is a bad person. The guy is an adult at 23 years of age and can make decisions for himself, right or wrong.

And do you know how many millions of Americans smoke weed? Let me just help you out, it is A LOT more than you think. There are probably about as many people partaking in the marijuana pastime as there are speeding on the roads.

Both offenses are breaking the law right? I can guarantee you speeding kills more people every year than marijuana does.

So after an apology from Phelps the USA Swimming committee suspended him from competition for three months.

Wait a second, this is news to me. They actually have real swim meets outside of the Olympics? And people actually go and watch them? Okay seriously, I know they have competitive swimming events but my point is why would Michael Phelps even care about this suspension?

I've seen a picture of Phelps from these non-Olympic events and the dude doesn't even shave. You know how swimmers are supposed to cut down on water resistance by removing every hair on their body? Well, he doesn't even do that for these because he is competing against other Americans who he probably beats by a pool length, with one arm tied behind his back!

I am sure his training and preparation are all aimed at one goal every four years, and that is winning as many gold medals at the Olympics as possible. I seriously doubt his financial well-being is dependant on the $3,500 first place check from the Long Beach Aqua Classic presented by Speedo.

But he may have to downgrade his ride from a Bentley to a Lamborghini because he did lose ONE of his sponsors in wake of this public scrutiny.

The Kellogg Co. has decided not to endorse the acclaimed athlete in the future, but the rest of his sponsors decided to stick with him and accepted the incident as a mistake. Since most of Kellogg's products are sold for children, I guess there were too many soccer moms picketing at the corporate office for them to continue their partnership with Phelps.

I know Phelps said he wanted to be a role model but hey, even those guys make mistakes sometimes. Remember the Kobe Bryant saga in Colorado? How about the former president of our country named William Jefferson Clinton?

Until Phelps starts costing the United States gold medals in the Olympics, let the kid do whatever he wants.


Freelance writer Scott Cooley shares his thoughts.

Memphis visits the Northwest

The Memphis Tigers are stepping out of Conference USA action one last time for a matchup against 18th-ranked Gonzaga. The 15th-ranked Tigers (19-3, 12-8-1 ATS) have been improving and coach John Calipari wants his team to be pushed in a hostile setting one last time before the NCAA tourney.

Antonio Anderson has gotten more comfortable in his role as shooting guard and his accuracy has improved since freshman Tyreke Evans has taken over the point. The Tigers' defense has been great so far, holding teams to 61.5 points a game on 37.7 percent shooting. The team seems to finally have bought into coach Cal’s preaching about toughness and they are 16-6 ATS versus defensive teams allowing 39 percent or less shooting after 15 or games on the season.

Gonzaga (17-4, 10-9 ATS) is very similar to Memphis in the respect they have been the dominant team in their conference and go after a demanding non-league schedule to improve resume and hopefully seeding. Since losing four of five games to finish December, the Bulldogs have regained their confidence and have a balanced attack.

Four players average in double digits; with Josh Heytvelt the leading scoring and West Coast Conference assist leader and reigning player of the year Jeremy Pargo, nearly at 10 points per game. Mark Few squads are 11-3 ATS vs. teams that average nine or more steals a game past the midpoint of the season.

The official line has the Tigers catching five points. Memphis has won 13 in a row (8-3-1 ATS) and is 11-3 and 8-5 ATS in non-conference action. The Tigers have covered last four outings against teams with winning records.

Gonzaga has offensive firepower, however their defense is overlooked; surrendering just 61.9 points per game and leads the country in defensive field goal percentage at 36.4 percent. The Bulldogs have had problems with teams with records above .500 with 2-7 ATS mark.

ESPN will have the telecast at 9 Eastern in what should be a very compelling matchup.

The Effect of the Quality of NBA Opponents

When handicapping an NBA game, a common thing to look at is who does the team play next. Is it a good team, a divisional foe, or one that a team can take very lightly as they aren’t very good?

Also, most cappers like to look at a team’s previous schedule. Have they played tough teams or have then been facing cupcakes recently? Is the team off of a game versus one of the elite squads in the league or were they playing a cellar dweller?

Are there any advantages in looking at different situations based upon the quality of the teams as measured by their season winning percentage? Do teams perform better after directly playing a high quality team? Is there a pattern to the results if a squad that has just played a bad team? (Editor's Note- Picture is cheap ploy to have you read)

We are calling a good team as one who is winning 60% or more of their games. A poor team is one who is winning less than 40% of their contests and an average one is winning straight-up below 60% down to 40% of their games.

Currently, there are an equal number of teams playing 60% or better ball as well as playing below 40%, nine in each category. There are 12 “average” teams with a winning percentage below 60% but no lower than 40%.

Let’s start with something very basic and see how two bad teams playing each other do against the spread and against the lined total. I have friends who swear to taking the Over in these situations. The general belief is that bad teams don’t play very good defense and that pairing two such teams means the Over is a money cow. Let’s see if history backs that premise up.

Basic Two Bad Teams Playing

Over the past three seasons, when two bad teams meet, the visiting team covers 54.6% of the time with the game going Over the total at a 53.5% rate. That’s a start, but let’s drill down a bit.
We quickly find a better betting angle to pay attention to by making the home team an underdog. The road team now covers 59.0% of the time with a surprise in the result of the totals as 63.4% of these games go Under the total. If the home team lost their previous game, the Under jumps to 69.4%.

The Over is predominant when the home team is favored to win the game, a 56.7% OU rate. That jumps to 61.9% if both teams are off of losses. However, if the home fave’s opponent is off of a win, the Under raises its head and is a 60% play.

So, while there are some nice situations to play the Over when two bad teams meet each other, you need to know a few more details to avoid making a wager with a big edge against you.

Basic Two Good Teams Playing

Looking at the other end of the spectrum, how do two good teams do matching up against each other? With no qualifiers, the home team covers 56.2% of these games with the Under winning at a 56.4% rate. If they are a home dog, that ATS rate moves up to 59.3% and the Under ticks up to 62.0%. The Under even goes up to a 66.7% mark if the home dog lost their previous game. The best basic angle I found was if you’re a home dog and both of you won your previous game, the home team getting points covered the point spread 63.4% of the time.

In looking at what quality of opponent our team played in their previous game, there was nothing worth noting on the results in our team’s next game. It didn’t matter if they played a bad or good or average team, the ATS and Over/Under results of the next games were all very close to 50%. In order to find some trends that will make us money, we need to add some qualifiers.

Two Good Teams playing and one just played a Good Team

The first qualifier I am going to add is the quality of the previous opponent. Let’s check results depending upon whether the opponents are good, average, or bad teams and add some other qualifiers as we go along.

A trend that happens a number of times the remainder of this season is when you have a good team, 60%+, who just played another good team and their current game is also against a good team. If this game is away, our team is only covering the spread 41% of the time. If the game is at home, you win against the number 55.5% of the time and the game goes Under at a 57.3% rate. That Under improves to a 69.4% winning situation at home if the team is an underdog. If our good team has just played an average or bad team in their game before facing a good team, there are no fairly basic trends that give us an edge.

Two Bad Teams Playing after playing a Good Team

If we switch our team to a bad team who has just played a good team and their current foe is a fellow bad team, we have a couple of advantageous edges to talk about. If the current game is away, our team off of playing a good team has an ATS record over the past three years of 65-41, 61.3%. The sweet spot in this situation is if this team happens to be a favorite in this road game, you will see an ATS improvement to 71.4%.

As for Over/Under winning trends, the Over is happening between 59 to 59.5% of the time if our team is an away dog or if it is listed as a home favorite in their game against their equally bad team. However, if, after playing a good team, our team is an away favorite, the totals results are the opposite with the Under cashing tickets at a 68.0% clip.

Average Team after playing a Bad Team vs. another Bad Team

For average teams, 40-60%, how about playing a bad team and then playing another bad team? It’s not a great day for you if you are on the road and lined as an underdog. In the past, you have covered the number only 32% of the time versus that bad team after previously playing a bad squad.

Opposite type of previous opponents

What would the results be if one team played a bad team previously and their opponent recently faced a good team? Would the team be more rested after playing a lower quality squad, perhaps not having to put out quite the same level of effort or intensity that they would have against a better unit. Would they have “more in the bank” than their opponent who is off of a contest against a good team?

Would the other team after playing a good team not have played as hard knowing they will lose and they are saving it up for the next squad they face. Or, does playing a good team prepare you better when you face an equally bad team in your next game?

Taking a game between two bad teams, our team’s previous game was against a bad team and their opponent has just played a good team. This is very interesting in that the team off of playing the bad team only covered the spread 28.6% of the time if this game was at home.
After playing a poor squad, combined with playing this game at home, our team was not prepared very well for this game very well. The lack of intensity for our team on the defensive side in this game also shows with the Over happening 64.5% of the time. With the other team off of a match against a good team, they apparently are the sharper team, at least for this game.

Playing a bad team can put another team into exhibiting bad habits, especially if they aren’t a good team to begin with. And just the opposite is true when a bad team plays a good one. They have to be at the top of their game to have a shot at winning. Playing at that higher level can carry over to the next game.

SUMMARY

Obviously there is an effect on a team depending upon what type of team they just played even in just the few cases we looked at. Here is a short cheat sheet to help in handicapping the NBA.

Two bad teams playing each other:
Play on the Visitor

Play Over if the home team is favored
Play Under if the home team is a dog

Two good teams playing each other:
Play on the home team, especially if a dog
Play the Under

Good vs. Good after playing a Good:
If home, look at playing Under, especially if dog
If away, play on home team

Bad vs. Bad after playing a Good:
Play on road team, especially if favorite

Avg Team after playing a Bad vs. Bad:
Play against Avg. Team if road dog


Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority wrote this NBA article.

Best System Play of the Season Goes Today

The Knicks got wiped out in the fourth quarter by Boston, costing us winning day. Not a big college totals guy, but found a system today that is the single best of the entire college basketball season at 93.7 percent. Not going to argue with that figure. Have a perfect Trend also on the amateur side of basketball that is 8-0. Sal from the Left Coast Connection comes back with TWO college Best Bets, riding a 10-1 week. Good Luck.

Also one of the regular readers of this blog and a sharp bettor from the Midwest told me UW-Milwaukee is a very solid play today.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY OVER on all teams where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points, in a game involving two up-tempo teams averaging 60 shots or more after the mid-point of the season. In addition these teams must commit 14.5 or fewer turnovers per game, thus proving they handle the ball well. This system is 30-2 (Gulp) 93.7 percent, including perfect 6-0 this season. The game is Virginia and North Carolina and I actually have another system that supports this at over 86 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Denver U. is 8-0 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Going to cut Sal a little slack since he has been hot on college basketball betting with 10-1 week, not the NBA, which he got wrong here yesterday. He’s giving out two plays, UCLA and Wyoming.

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3Daily Winners on 68.4 percent run on plays

The Lakers and Celtics matchup was an excellent contest, seemingly one of the 20-25 regular season games that is compelling in the NBA. A 2-0-1 Thursday moved us to 13-6-1 in recent days and we’ll see if we can continue our good fortune with the Knicks in a favorable position against Boston, based on the total of the game. Found a heck of a NBA system that is 87.1 percent over the last five years. Today’s Free Play won’t be late, I promise. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON all teams like Utah, when the line is +3 to -3, who score 102 or more points a game against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG), after a win by 10 points or more. This system has +22.6 units of profit with 27-4 ATS record over the last five years.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The New York Knicks are 12-1 ATS in a home game where the total is 200 to 209.5 this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Sal is passing on college hoops, instead is playing Charlotte to continue winning against Atlanta.

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NBA Systems in Absurd Contest

There are lovable dogs, ugly dogs, mean dogs and yappy dogs that never shut-up, barking all the time. The NBA has a couple of mutts in the Western Conference, the L.A. Clippers and Memphis, with very little to love about either of these two squads. On Friday night, these two putrid clubs will meet, which begs the question, why would 3Daily Winners take up valuable time and space to showcase these two dowdy dogs?

Before that question is answered directly, let’s take a brief look at each team. (Don’t worry, it won’t take long) The Los Angeles Clippers are easy fodder for Jay Leno on nightly basis. Their latest losing streak has reached seven games, losing by 20.2 points per game. This is game five of seven in what has to seem like a road trip that started last year. The Clippers are 5-19 as visitors and are 11-13 against the spread.

All these blowouts aren’t good for any team’s confidence and that shows up for the Clips who are 3-14 ATS after a loss by 15 points or more this season. This doesn’t mean it is all for naught, especially when Memphis is the opposition. The Grizzlies have actually won two games in a row (who said pigs don’t fly); with the latter two days ago against a good Houston club 104-93, as six-point home underdogs.

This could actually work to the Clippers advantage and here is why.

Play Against home teams off an upset win as an underdog, against opponent off three or more consecutive road losses.

Teams like Los Angeles have benefited in this position to the tune of 23-3 ATS, 88.5 percent.

In fairness, the league’s worst run franchise and possibly the worst in all of sports can’t have it come that easy. As an NBA writer said years ago, if the Clippers ever won the NBA championship, the champagne would probably be tainted and all the players would end up dying in the celebration.

Believe it or not, Memphis also fits an incredible system that is just a little less potent, but can place the sports bettor on the right side of the action. The Grizzlies on Monday ended a losing streak that reached a dozen (remarkably 0-12 ATS also), taking out the ugliest dog in the Eastern Conference, Washington 113-97. With the victory over the Rockets, that marked the first time Memphis has won back to back games by double digits since the final three games of the 2006-07 season. (Holy Cow!)

This in turn shines the light on the Grizzlies as system play on team too.

Play On home teams off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, against opponent off two consecutive road losses by 10 points or more.

This beautiful situation also is in the rarified air of 82.8 percent with 24-5 ATS mark since 1996.

Bookmaker.com has Memphis as 5.5-point favorites and not because they are 4-13 ATS after playing a game as a home underdog this season.

If you are confused about which system is the better to play, consider the matchup, which tells you everything you need to know.

Best Plays for Thursday, Feb. 5

A special thanks to Kendall who was 4-1 here before losing yesterday. He finally got bit a little with 3-4 day. Sal will take his place later today with his best offering. One last chance to brag on ourselves off 1-2 Hump Day, now at 11-6 in last six days. The Indiana Pacers head to Philly armed with a Top Trend in their arsenal. Today’s best system looks at a pair of teams out of the mildly obscure Big Sky Conference, but nothing obscure about an 81.2 percent winning system. Good Luck.

The weird line on Northeastern and William & Mary ended up being correct, as that lovely couple won outright. (See yesterday’s read)

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST any team like No. Arizona revenging a home loss, against an opponent off two or more consecutive upset losses as a road favorite. This makes the play Portland State in this situation, with 30-7 ATS mark, good for 81.2 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Indiana Pacers are 13-3 ATS after two or more consecutive losses this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Sal was 3-0 in college hoops yesterday and is 6-0 this week. His Best Bet is Wisconsin. (Sorry to be so late)

Lakers Playing Respect Card in Beantown

Revenge can be such an ugly word and today’s athlete doesn’t always find it to be a compelling argument to go out and give it everything you have. Choose a different say, “embarrassment” or even worse “disrespect” those are fightin’ words in this era. Players of today make a lot of money, which leads to bigger egos and when their friends and hangers on tell them they were essentially Punk’d, that’s not going to sit well. For the Los Angeles Lakers, they return to Boston for the first time since Game Six of the NBA finals, where they embarrassed 131-92.

“We had our most disappointing moments on that Boston Celtic court in Game 6,” Lakers coach Phil Jackson stated. “To be not only beaten, but humiliated, in a game like that to end the series, and have them celebrating and throwing (stuff) all over the court, disrupting the game with 2 1/2 minutes left to go. It was in your face and everybody remembers that. There’s a certain element of, you know, we have some serious work to do.”

The Lakers (39-9, 24-23-1 ATS) relieved some of that embarrassment on Christmas Day, with their 92-83 win as two-point home favorites. Back then Boston was in the midst of playing their worst basketball of the season, winning twice in nine games. The competitive nature of elite athletes, they want to beat others who are also at their best, which is exactly where the Celtics are at present, having won 12 in a row (9-3 ATS).

For L.A., this almost becomes a crusade of sorts with so many factors working against them.

Just like in last year’s finals, the purple-clad Lakers will be without center Andrew Bynum, who will miss eight to 12 weeks after tearing the medial collateral ligament in his right knee. This will be game five of a six-game road trip (4-0 SU and ATS) and doesn’t go unnoticed in the Lakers locker room; this will be their fifth game in seven days, having to play last night in Toronto, while Boston had the night off. Bryant and the Lakers will try and build on recent success which has them 12-3 ATS playing back to back road games.

Pau Gasol tried to sum up the team’s feelings. “Last time we played there it was a pretty bad game for us,” he said. “I’m looking forward to bounce back there and prove a point.”

Boston (28-22 ATS) will be hell-bent on defending their own turf, where they are 24-2 and 16-10 ATS. The Celtics have followed up winning the championship, with quite an encore thus far with 41-9 record, best in the NBA. They will welcome back Kevin Garnett who has missed the last two games due to illness and look to sustain winning ways. Boston is 11-3 ATS in home games after having won eight or more of their last 10 games this season.

Bookmaker.com has Boston as six-point pick with total of 204.5. The Celtics could have the edge being 12-2 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 200. The Lakers will attempt to counter posting 17-6 ATS record in road games after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive outings.

With contrasting styles of play, tempo will be important. L.A. is 17-4 OVER after three or more consecutive wins this season, winning by almost seven points a game. On the other hand, Paul Pierce and his gang (possibly poor choice of words) is 10-1 UNDER after scoring 100 points or more two straight contests, with average margin of victory 13 points.

The excitement starts at 8:05 Eastern on TNT with the C’s 4-1SU and ATS in last five meetings in Beantown.

Need a Profile for Winning NHL Wagers?

All of us have heard endlessly that defense wins championships, which is fine if you are betting in the postseason of a particular sport or the final game or series of games. However, the vast majority of action occurs during the regular season in any every sport, giving us countless more chances to win. With the NHL on the backside of their regular season, decided to see what characteristics one could find in determining winning hockey wagers.

Other than in Canada, the vast majority of people are now betting the money line in the NHL, based on its simplicity of having winners and losers, without a puck line (spread) to deal with. Here is the list of the Top 5 money-making teams in the NHL at this given moment with their true won/loss records.

1) Boston 38-14 +19 units
2) San Jose 36-12 +13.9 units
3) Washington 33-19 +10 units
4) New Jersey 32-19 +9.7 units
5) Calgary 30-20 +5.7 units

It is not a coincidence that each of these five teams leads their respective divisions. The only team missing is Detroit, who should creep back up in this list; however, they are like the New York Yankees, with bloated numbers placed on them. When the Red Wings lose as -200 to -300 favorites, it takes a toll trying to recoup those losses.

What do these teams do that separates them from the pack to win games and beat betting lines, they score goals. Fine, it’s not solving the current financial crisis; nonetheless it opens the door to potential wagering wealth. Here are the top scoring teams in the NHL.

1) Detroit
2) Boston
3) Washington
4) San Jose
5) Chicago

If you score on a consistent basis, your chances of winning are significantly increased. I know this sounds like Fox’s Tim McCarver in stating the obvious, but too often we can become overindulged in trying to find every edge imaginable, we lose sight of the obvious. Noted baseball expert and historian Bill James, probably said it best, “The idea of team sports is to score more than the other team.” Detroit making this group is not a surprise and Chicago actually has a winning record for the first time in years (28-21), because, they can score.

Next I took a gander at the importance of fast starts in a game and looked at from two angles. The first part of this study was to understand importance of scoring first and secondly, what scoring goals in the first period meant.

Scoring First
1) Detroit
2) San Jose
3) Vancouver
4) Boston
5) Philadelphia

In the 2008-09 campaign, seeing three of the top four teams here is not earth-shattering, as they pounce on opponents and keep the pressure on for 60 minutes. Philadelphia is close to showing a profit, with Vancouver the only anomaly. New Jersey and Washington are one goal behind Philadelphia, thus right in the mix.

Goals Scored 1st Period
1) San Jose
2) Chicago
3) Washington
4) Detroit
5) Boston

Very similar to above, as the more talented squads are able to secure an early lead and force the competition to play catch-up, which has been shown this season, the opposing teams don’t do very well.

The next category was team’s abilities to either close out games or come from behind which either did or could lead to victory. Deeper, more talented clubs have the resources to wear down inferior opposition and win presumably close games. Here are the best teams for goals scored in the 3rd period.

1) Boston
2) Washington
3) Detroit
4) Atlanta
5) Calgary

By now, the picture should start to look like a Vizio flat panel HDTV.

To wrap up our study of profiling winning bets in the NHL, we addressed the segment of power play goals. Since the strike season, a greater emphasis has been placed on special teams, meaning those that can either score with man advantage situations or are skilled as penalty killers, have a distinct edge in most games. Staying with our theme of scoring goals, hockey teams that can put the pressure on in the offensive zone have a real advantage. This can lead to opposing teams being out of position, playing scared, trying to not make a miscue. This can lead to goals or taking penalties, which leads to more scoring chances for these offensive-minded clubs. Here are the top 5 teams in power play goals scored this year.

1) Detroit
2) San Jose
3) Washington
4) St. Louis
5) Boston

Living in a very complicated world, sometimes taking the easiest route can be the most profitable.

Plays, Thoughts and Oddity for Wednesday

Kendall has made a major move to improve his income level. He’s a member of the Left Coast Connection and is self-proclaimed “feel” better. When he’s hot, he rides his streaks hard and is 26-7 in his last 33 wagers, making thousands of dollars. He’s provided us with four winners in a row and goes for number five this evening.

Kind of a weird day for systems and trends. I really don’t today’s system, because I have no faith in St. Louis’ ability to shoot with any consistency. I hope it wins, but not placing my money on it despite 81.4 percent mark. The Top Trend shows what the Grizzlies do when they start losing again. Good Luck.

A real oddity and can’t remember the last time I saw this. Northeastern is eight road favorite at William & Mary. The line appears to be accurate based on current figures; however 32 days ago, Northeastern was an eight point favorite at home against W&M. Your normal line of all things being equal would have this game as a Pick if the first number was actually correct. Granted, Northeastern is much better than anticipated and W&M is much worse. Even so, the typical number would be adjusted in worse case scenarios, possibly three points, but EIGHT! Share with everyone if you remember anything like this.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON a favorite like St. Louis after beating the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, whose a marginal winning team (51 to 60 percent) playing a winning team. Despite a plethora of college basketball games, this was the only side that was over an 80 percent system at 22-5.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Memphis Grizzlies are 2-15 ATS after having lost three of their last four games this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Kendall’s Best Bet is Central Florida -3 at home.

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Hunting for Hoops Winners Can Be Done

With football over for yet another season, unless the Pro Bowl is part of your betting plans, it is time to turn full attention to college basketball wagering. With Wednesday, Thursday and especially Saturday cards often cumbersome because of the sheer volume of games, it can be wise to shave the number of contests down to more manageable numbers. How this can be accomplished is finding particular conferences that have proven to have value.

By now, every league is either at or halfway past the midpoint of conference slate and solid information can be found to utilize for wagering purposes. Three conferences in particular have yielded distinct info, which should be followed, with the intent of cashing in for significant profits.

The Sun Belt Conference is like a few other leagues in college landscape. The Big Ten has 11 teams, the Atlantic 10 has 14 squads and Denver U. and North Texas (Denton) would hardly be considered part of anybody’s list of vacation spots in the Sun Belt region. Fortunately, the goal isn’t to be like the late George Carlin and make sense of the arrangement, instead just to study the facts.

Presently, the Sun Belt ranks 19th in the latest Sagarin Ratings in college hoops among the 33 conferences. With the SBC a bit unwieldy with its 13 teams, certain numbers can be skewed in determining different factors. For example, a conference with vast number of universities could see the records of home team wins watered-down by those occupying the lower regions. The Big East is a perfect example of this, with the division between the have’s and have-nots, roughly the size of our domestic and foreign trade imbalance.

Sun Belt home teams have won 63 percent of conference games (41-24) which is about average overall. This is where things get interesting. Only one team in the league has a defense that allows below 40 percent shooting (39.8), and that is Arkansas State who comes in at 13-8 and .500 in league play.

Thus we establish the SBC is not a great defensive league, which leads to the profit point we are seeking. Sun Belt home teams cough up the cash with great regularity, sporting a 23-41-1, 35.9 ATS mark. With just a few better teams like Western Kentucky, Ark-Little Rock and Middle Tenn. State, the rest are pedestrian, with no atrocious teams, save Florida Atlantic.

This looks to be a real opportunity, with one caveat. Denver University, year in, year out, is one of the toughest stops in the Sun Belt because of the altitude. This season the Pioneers are 4-1 SU and ATS in league action playing at Magness Arena. Subtract Denver’s wins and are wager on SBC road teams improves.

The Western Athletic Conference from time to time makes some noise and is ranked 13th by the Sagarin numbers. Utah State has just one blemish on the docket this season, losing to BYU. In truth, the rest of the conference record-wise leaves much to be desired. Nevada and Boise State are both not as strong as a year ago and the rest of the other six schools are at or below .500.

In league play, the home teams have among the worst records in all of college basketball, with a 20-15 record (57.1 percent). In studying the WAC’s numbers, all the teams are ordinary to slight better than average defensively, and offensively, most teams shoot the ball relatively well. The point is, other than Utah State, every team is capable of beating another home or away. This presents a splendid opportunity to play against home teams who are 12-23 against the spread.

Earlier, imbalance was mentioned in different conferences, where the best teams are Dick Vitale “Flat-out superior”. This appears to be the case in the Colonial Athletic Association, where Northeastern, Virginia Commonwealth, George Mason and Drexel are far above the rest, especially playing on the own courts.

These four teams have compiled a 20-3 record in league play at home and are sensational 17-6 ATS against all CAA comers, including playing among themselves.

In these recessionary times, we all have to work a little harder to have what we need and as this proves; the extra work can place more money in your pocket.

Three plays on a Tuesday coming your way

Our streak of good fortune was broken with 1-2 Monday, nonetheless, still 8-3 the last four days. We’ll try and release the evil demons and change things up a bit, with a college basketball system that focuses on the total in a televised tilt tonight in the SEC. Kendall will go after four in a row at 3Daily Winners with a Free Play and it's up now. Look towards the Big 12 for today’s Top Trend which is perfect. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) Play the UNDER when the total is between 150 and 159.5 points, and the road team, South Carolina in this instance, is off a close win by three points or less over a conference rival and has a winning percentage between 60-80 percent on the season. This Totals system is been quite effective the last five years at 25-5.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Kansas State Wildcats are 9-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Kendall’s pick is BYU to cover on the road.

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College Hoops Futures Bets

In last week’s college basketball article, I looked at the past five years of Final Four teams and their offensive and defensive efficiency ratings as well as the differential between the two. Using the minimum numbers for each category that occurred over the past five seasons, I made a list of teams who achieved as high or higher number in all three areas. My list of teams numbered sixteen last week.

After using current data, five teams fell out of my qualifying Final Four list and one new one emerged to reduce this week’s slate to 12 teams. Three teams fell out because their defensive efficiency number worsened above the minimum, Missouri, Utah, and Georgetown. Illinois and Kentucky’s offensive efficiency numbers were reduced below our required minimum. Any of these teams can show up on the list again. This week’s list is as follows ranked by the best margin between offensive and defensive efficiency:

1. Duke
2. North Carolina
3. Pittsburgh
4. Connecticut
5. Gonzaga
6. West Virginia
7. Arizona State
8. Wake Forest
9. Washington
10. Butler
11. Xavier
12. Villanova

I like to look for inside-outside scoring capabilities on a team. A team cannot rely too much on any one player for their points. Balance is key. Having at least two good shooters from three-point range is a strong benefit when playing against a zone. Sure, players like Davidson’s Stephen Curry are special and many times can carry a team on their shoulders. However, it is very difficult for one player to be able to do that for the five NCAA Tournament wins it takes to become national champion.

The past five years has seen two number-one seeds playing in the championship game three times with the other two years having #2 versus #3 seeds to win it all. Out of the 20 Final Four teams, every squad has been no lower than a #3 seed except for two #4’s, one #5, and a rogue #11, George Mason in 2005-06.

In looking at wagering on a futures bet to win it all, I didn’t want to get worse than 10 to 1 odds so that eliminated a number of my teams. Let’s examine some of the ones I considered.Villanova’s 6-8 forward Sr. Dante Cunningham is having a breakout season leading the Wildcats in scoring, rebounding, steals, and blocks. However, after improving last season, Jr. Scottie Reynolds has digressed in shooting this year behind the arc while falling to a field goal percentage of 39.0%. Nova is only 2-4 this season against teams in the top 50 RPI. The Wildcats should fall from my list of top Final Four candidates soon.

West Virginia plays tremendous defense but has had difficulties closing games out. While 6-7 Jr. Da’Sean Butler is an all-Big East caliber player, the Mountaineers have two freshmen in their top 5 minute earners with one of those being their point guard, Truck Bryant. They also have the lowest offensive effective field goal percentage of our 12 teams and along with Washington, are the only team to be below 50% in that category.

Xavier played an exceptional non-conference schedule this year helping prepare them for the Atlantic 10 conference race. They have beaten the likes of Missouri, Memphis, and LSU. Their two losses this season were against fellow elite teams on our list, Duke and Butler. Playing their worst game of the year, the Musketeers were down by 31 points at halftime to Duke before losing by 18. The next game was against Butler where Xavier turned the ball over 17 times and put the Bulldogs at the free-throw line for 33 attempts where Butler shot 78.8%. The bright side was they held Butler to just 35.1% shooting.The Musketeers are a well balanced team with three players scoring in double-digits. Any one of five players can go off for 20. A good inside-outside combo in F Derrick Brown and G C.J. Anderson, a gritty competitor. The team shoots the ball well aided by a lot of back screens, play very good defense, and have the best rate in the country at getting to the charity stripe. Their downside is they have the worst turnover rate of our 12 squads, losing the rock on 22.1% of their possessions, 247th in the country. Xavier doesn’t get the national publicity they deserve. They normally play a top 50 non-conference schedule and have had very good post-season success. The Musketeers have gone to three straight NCAA tournaments and seven in the last eight years. They made the Elite Eight last season before losing to UCLA in the West regional final and are one of only nine programs to make multiple appearances in the final eight in the last five years. Xavier is a projected #4 seed by collegerpi.com. At 75 to 1 current odds, that is a long-shot wager I am going to take. I am not saying the Musketeers are going to win it all, but this is a wager that has value to me.

While Butler has beaten Xavier and UAB with their only loss coming at Ohio State by 3 points, I cannot take a flyer on the Bulldogs to capture the college crown as they are ranked 340th out of 344 Division 1 schools in experience. Butler has two freshmen and two sophomores starting.

The University of Washington is playing the best defense they have for the past six seasons, including when they made the Sweet 16 in 2006 led by Brandon Roy where they lost in overtime to UConn. The Huskies don’t make many three’s ranking in the bottom ten nationally in percentage of points from behind the arc. Washington didn’t play a very tough non-con slate losing to Kansas and Florida in a November tournament in Kansas City. The only other Top 50 school they played was a win at home over Oklahoma State. U-Dub is the second worst shooting team and they have the worst defensive effective field goal percentage out of our elite dozen. This past weekend on the road they beat another of our group, Arizona State, after they had dropped a game to Arizona two nights earlier. The Huskies are led by Frosh sparkplug PG Isaiah Thomas and the physical 6-7 Sr Jon Brockman. Even though the Pac-10 is down this year and I don’t like the UW coach very much plus I have my doubts on the Huskies’ true defensive capabilities, at odds of 100 to 1 to becoming the champions, I am going to skip taking the wife out to dinner one night this week and go drop a Benjamin on a Washington futures bet.

After all, who thought the Arizona Cardinals would be within three minutes of winning the Super Bowl?I listed the odds for the teams on my list of winning the championship courtesy of Sportsbook.com. Wake Forest was 14 to 1. At that price I put money on Wake to end up #1. Wake plays at a frenetic pace, seventh fastest in D-1. The Deamon Deacons play superb defense, #5 in defensive efficiency. Even though they have exceptional size, they cover the perimeter like a blanket ranking third in D-1 in defensive 3-point field goal percentage. They have beaten two teams on my current list, North Carolina and Duke, and two others that are close to being on the list, BYU and Clemson. They are also exceptional in a stat I like to look at, defensive assist-to-field goal ratio. Wake gets to march to the line frequently ranking 20th in their percentage free throw attempts to field goal attempts, 45.4. Collegerpi.com has Wake as one of their current #1 seeds.

I mentioned that Villanova is a team that will probably slide off my list of potential FF teams, and obviously there are some who could possibly move on to the list. Purdue is projected as a #4 seed and just needs to get and stay as healthy as possible while adding one more point to their OE. Rick Pitino’s Louisville is doing their normal second half of the season surge and only need to improve their OE two points to qualify for our list. While Oklahoma is listed as one of the four #1 seeds by collegerpi.com, they have to improve their defensive efficiency by more than 2 points to make my potential Final Four list.

Sure, this is just the first week of February. It is never too early to look at futures bets. It is similar to playing the lottery, but the people who had Celtics futures tickets last year aren’t complaining.


Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority drops by to share his wisdom.

Sadly, Wagering info the Day After

Well, that sadly concludes football for another year and what a great game it was. 3Daily Winners is proud to say we finished #3 at the Free Sports Monitor in the NFL and had the same finish at The Sports Eye for the regular season. We actually finished #1 in the postseason for the NFL at The Sports Eye, all worthy accomplishments. Oh crap, Terry McCauley the Super Bowl ref, just yellow flagged me for excessive celebration. This guy is unbelievable and apparently everywhere. Might as well see if I can earn another penalty. I was fortunate to get both the side and total in the Super Bowl, especially the total. I went 3-1 on prop bets, however the one I'm most proud of was Santonio Holmes as MVP (see earlier post in this blog). It was one of those weird calling things, since I almost never make those kinds of plays being so random. Hitting 14-1 shots are always nice.

We had two more winners here yesterday giving us a three day record of 7-1 and we’ll seek more winners, with a smokin’ hot hockey angle for Monday. Today’s best system is 88 percent in the NBA and should be carefully examined. Kendall off a few winners offers his best bet. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON road teams like Charlotte who are weak offensively, averaging 88-92 points a game, against a mediocre defensive team like Utah (98-102 PPG), after allowing 105 points or more. This combination of factors has produced a 22-3 ATS record since 2004 and is 2-0 this campaign.

Free Hockey Trend -2) The Calgary Flames are 17-2 when playing just their second game in five days.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Kendall’s best bet is Kansas over Baylor, going for three in a row.

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Connecticut to be No. 1, can they stay there?

By game time, Connecticut will be the fourth different team to be ranked number one in as many weeks and will face the challenge of Louisville, who appears now they can beat virtually any team in the country with the type of basketball they are playing now. College basketball bettors have a real tough choice to make tonight in another Big Monday bash.

Coach Jim Calhoun, a veteran of many basketball wars is trying to keep the top ranking in perspective. “You don’t want to be No. 1 for a day,” said Calhoun. “It’s just a number that goes by quickly. But if there are 343 teams playing in the country and at some point in the season, especially 21 games into the season … it’s nice. No more. No less.”

Connecticut (20-1, 10-7 ATS) is caught in scheduling buzz saw, with this being their third game is six days and what a place to be forced to play at in Louisville. Truthfully, DePaul and Providence are not among the Big East hierarchy, however playing this many contests can take physical toll. Arriving to play the Cardinals precludes the Huskies from shilly-shallying around, with the 94-feet game and the pressure Louisville can provide. UConn is 5-14 ATS in road games off a home win over the last three seasons.

This figures to be a game forward Jeff Adrien has to come up big to match the brilliant play of Louisville’s Terrence Williams, who has been the best player on the floor in nearly each conference contest. Like the Cardinals, Connecticut can control the glass and coach Calhoun’s club is 22-8 ATS versus teams who average 40 or more rebounds a game past the midpoint of the season.

Louisville (17-3, 12-8 ATS) has the same scheduling situation as UConn, with the benefit of playing them all at home. Coach Rick Pitino’s squad is building momentum, with nine wins in a row (7-2 ATS) and unlike the Huskies, is still unbeaten in Big East play like Marquette. Starters Earl Clark and Edgar Sosa are back in the coach’s good graces, but like their teammates, are prone to be a little self-indulgent. We fall in love with ourselves too much,” said Pitino, whose team overcame a season high 26 turnovers against West Virginia in 69-63 win. “In the long run, it’s probably better we had a war down the stretch.”

Their goal in this encounter is to make this an end to end game, making center Hasheen Thabeet less important, who is coming off his third double digit effort in blocked shots. This has been go time for the ‘Ville, sporting 13-2 ATS mark in February since 2007.

Bookmaker.com is impressed enough with Louisville to install them as 2.5-point favorites with total of 136.5. The Cardinals coincidently are 16-4 ATS off three straight wins against conference rivals, while UConn is 2-13 ATS in road games after two straight blowout wins by 20 points or more.

Will the top dog Huskies stay No.1 or will they be handled in first game like the last two teams that occupied the top spot? Answers forthcoming on ESPN starting at 7 Eastern.

Super Bowl Sunday Betting Stuff

Maybe I should be in a hurry every day if I’m going to go 3-0 like Saturday. (By the way, 79 and sunny yesterday at the golf tournament. Thought I’d just throw that in. I know I’m an idiot for bring it up, but used to live in Midwest, so I appreciate it here more than most.)

As expected, not much to choose from today, but found consistent NBA Totals system to think about. Our Top Trend involves a club from the Show Me State, playing in Missouri Valley action. Lastly, I present how the LCC wagered on the game with roman numerals. Good Luck and enjoy the game.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY OVER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, in a game involving two good offensive teams (98-102 points per game), after one of the teams (Boston in this case) played in a game with a combined score of 175 points or less. This has been a very steady performer over the last five years at 37-9 and has been right on target this season at 8-2.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Missouri State 2-12 ATS in road games after two consecutive conference games over the last two seasons.

Free Football Selections -3) We’ll get back with Kendall tomorrow after providing us with a couple of winners in a row. Here the final tally for the Super Bowl from the Left Coast Connection. Remarkably, they are split 50-50 on the sides between the two teams. I will note that those that have the line at 7, 54 percent are on Arizona. A total of 53 percent are on the Over 46.5.

Super Bowl XLIII- Who Covers and Why

Finally. That’s right, Sunday night at 6:28 Eastern time, the Super Bowl will start and all the rhetoric about Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm being jilted by the Pittsburgh organization, and the talk of the Steelers secondary having to face the greatest wide receiver ever to play the game in Larry Fitzgerald (That Rice guy used to be pretty good) will end. Now we can get down to the basics, blocking and tackling, who makes the best sight adjustments throughout the 60 minutes and who holds up under pressure. Here is a look at how each team wins and covers the spread. Pittsburgh gets to go first since they are the road team, called heads and will take the ball.

Pittsburgh wins and covers because…

They can play keep away, holding the ball for over 32 minutes during the regular season and almost 35 minutes in the playoffs. They have the ability to demoralize opponents, since offensive coordinator Bruce Arians won’t give up on the run and if Pittsburgh has success, they will just pound away until they break opposing team’s will.

Arizona DC Clancy Pendegrast will attack the Steelers offense with blitzes trying to get the ball out of Ben Roethlisberger’s hands, with the intent of forcing mistakes. The Steelers can counter this with draws, screens and utilizing tight end Heath Miller to move the chains. The goal of the Pittsburgh offense is to push, push and push the Cardinals and hit a few big plays with Willie Parker running the ball or deep shots to Santonio Holmes. Don’t be surprised if Nate Washington has bigger impact than Hines Ward in this big game.

If defense wins championships, Pittsburgh is perfectly situated to take home a record sixth Super Bowl trophy. The Steelers allowed 161.5 yards per game as the NFL’s top pass defense and Arizona has passed for 284.9 yards per game in 19 outings. That is a preposterous 122.4 yards difference comparing the strengths of the two teams. Even if Pittsburgh allows half the total of 61 yards, they have effectively taken away a large chunk of the Arizona attack. The idea with Fitzgerald is to not have him make big plays since he will we get his catches and limit the other receivers.

Dick LeBeau defense first needs to corral the Arizona running game. Though Kurt Warner is having a special season, he has gotten rattled this year and it usually happens early. Make Warner’s emotions work against him and pressure him with different looks. If Warner gets that eye-wided snarl on his face, the Steelers will be wearing the Super Bowl winners t-shirts and hats.

Arizona wins and covers because…

The defense is playing tough, assignment-oriented football. In every playoff game, the Arizona defense has not only stopped the run, they have done so with discipline to prevent big plays. Both Michael Turner and Brian Westbrook made defenders miss running the ball, but the Cardinals defenders maintained gap control and held them to minimal gains time and again. Keeping Parker boxed will force the Steelers to look for other alternatives.

The aforementioned Clancy Pendegrast has to be excited in viewing the tape of all the problems the Pittsburgh offensive linemen had with the Baltimore stunts and games up front, especially on the right side. Look for him to find out if they have corrected this issue, if not, Ben Roethlisberger can expect to see red shirts and white helmets in his line of vision and around him all day. Give a disrespected underdog a reason to play harder, they will.

Part of Arizona’s success in the postseason has been their ability to start and keep the pressure on their opponents. When teams trail in the playoffs, coaches feel a different sense of urgency because a loss means elimination. The Cardinals for the most part have been in control most of the three games. Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower have balanced the Redbirds offense, creating more opportunities in the passing game. Arizona is 9-0 SU and ATS if they out-rush the opposition this season.

The Cards offensive line has to be aware of linebacker James Harrison at all times. He has been the most disruptive individual defender in the NFL this year. Warner has to keep his cool and might be forced to look to receivers Steve Breaston and even Jereme Urban, with how the Steelers can play defense. Though Warner is a seasoned veteran, capable of reading any defense, he still has to make the plays, particularly in the moment. If he realizes the Steelers defense will force enough three and outs, yet can still be had with the multitude of weapons, possibly the most unlikely Super Bowl champion since the New York Jets in the third Super Bowl will be crowned.