Washington Needs Leadership in LaLa-Land

It’s a huge weekend for the first place Washington Huskies, as they try and add to Pac-10 lead, taking in the scenery of Los Angeles. The Huskies are off a home sweep of the Oregon schools and have budding confidence after ending 15-year losing steak at Stanford two weekend’s ago. Washington has proven this season the sum of the parts is better than the individual components and basketball bettors have profited also with 15-8 against the spread mark tracking the Huskies.

Getting a gauge on Washington (19-6) is relatively easy to do. If the Huskies players are sharing the ball and passing to find the open man, they will have a very good shot at winning. If the Huskies are taking quick shots and doing too much dribbling, a loss is likely.

Once again we find in college basketball, veteran leadership is important. Seniors Justin Dentmon and Jon Brockman have been the driving force behind the success of coach Lorenzo Romar’s squad. However, this is far from a two man team. Big time recruit, forward Quincy Pondexter has finally settled in at U-Dub in his junior season. In his first two seasons, he put pressure on himself, with visions beyond Seattle. His focus this season has been being part of the team and is averaging 11.1 points and 5.6 rebounds, being a big contributor for a team that is 10-3 and 8-5 ATS in Pac-10 play.

I think the biggest thing Quincy (Pondexter) has done is taken the pressure off himself," Brockman said. "He's taken the whole NBA thing out of the deal and just said to himself, 'Forget about that. I'm going to think about the team. I'm going to think about our season instead of worrying about my future.' The hard working leader also added, “….this season, Quincy has come in and concentrated more on defense and rebounding and passing, and it's paying off."

After putting a beat down on Oregon 103-84, Washington has covered next five contests after scoring 90 or more points.

After registering four straight wins since losing at Washington, UCLA (19-6, 12-12 ATS) looked like a mirage playing in the Arizona desert, being swept, to fall into second place tie. UCLA’s resurgence had been led by its three seniors, Darren Collison, Alfred Aboya and Josh Shipp, but the latter two were ineffective last week. Collison continued his steady play, however freshman running mate Jrue Holiday played like a young player, having more turnovers (7) than points (6) in two games in the Grand Canyon State.

Maybe the Bruins players were a little too comfortable after finding there offense and believed they could just continue on, piling up offensive numbers. This was not the case, as the UCLA defense was tattered for 60 and 50 percent shooting last week and will have to rebound quickly in keeping hopes alive of winning Pac-10 again. The Bruins are 18-8 ATS off a spread loss.

Bookmaker.com has UCLA as 7.5-point favorites at Pauley Pavilion, having won and covered four in a row and posting 14-1 record (8-6 ATS), winning by 22.2 points per game. Washington is 8-3 ATS against teams with winning home record and a victory would be a tremendous step toward securing Pac-10 title, since after USC game Saturday, their remaining four games are all at home. The Huskies are 5-3 SU and ATS in road games and perfect 3-0 both ways as a road underdog.

UCLA coach Ben Howland knows what’s at stake, being three-time Pac-10 regular season champions, "This is going to be a gut-check week for us." His players are going to have to be ready to fight, as Washington is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation, while UCLA accrues the second fewest rebounds in the conference. The Bruins have not lost three in a row in over four years and have lost once to Washington at home in 22 years and is 8-3 ATS since 1998.

This Pac-10 tilt will be on FSN in many parts of the country, starting at 8 Pacific and the Huskies better be prepared to defend the perimeter, as they are 3-11 ATS in road games versus three-point shooting teams making 37 percent or more of their attempts.

Can you Profit from a Hot Goalie?

In the NHL playoffs, a hot netminder or two can carry a team deep into the postseason, as the style of play is more grinding and teams take fewer chances. But what about the regular season, can a hockey better profit from wagering on a goalie and his defensemen keeping the puck out of the net over a period of time?

First, had to determine what would constitute sizzling defensive play. The decision was made allowing four goals or less over a group of three games. From wagering perspective, how would the team do in next visit to the rink?

The breakdown was home and road favorites and home and road underdog roles. We wanted to know how all NHL teams would react, can they continue to play well or does their skill and luck run out?

Playing on home favorites would seem to make the most sense, since at least one aspect of the team seemed in order on half of the ice. This area enjoyed the finest recrord at 17-10, with the profits almost negligible at +0.40. Arriving at this result is not surprising, considering oddsmakers would shade the home favorite a bit more based on solid defensive play and losses would in turn be more costly. Seven of the losses suffered were at a -160 or higher on the money line, really dragging down profit potential, in spite of winning percentage of 63 percent.

Interestingly, the Eastern Conference teams were superior at 8-3, for +2.98 units.
There were just five instances of home underdogs that fit this study. Though the 3-2 record and +1.78 units mark is adequate, would have believed the record to be better because of stellar defense.

Taking this act on the road figured to be more trying and it was, though not dreadful. Road favorites are 9-8, losing 1.74 units. The best lesson to be learned from this group is what happens to the smaller visiting favorites. Of the eight defeats suffered, six were listed as -130 money line or less favorites. This suggests the road team is competent, yet hardly overwhelming and might be overrated after playing so well defensively.

Road underdogs could not be thought of a good wager and they were not. These travelers won just 10 of 25 contests, for -3.48 units. Similar to the story above, the best way to win is finding shorter road dogs. Eight of the 10 wins came in situations of +150 or less, which places the numbers in your favor to improve profit potential.

While digging for this exercise, a few other intriguing elements arose. The Eastern Conference has a dramatically better record at 17-10 (+6.93 units) compared to the Western Conference, which limped in at 22-25 (10.07 units.) The West ended up with significantly more situations, at 63.5 percent of all, in part because three teams in the East have not gone three games in a row with strong defensive play. Atlanta and Tampa Bay being among the three is no shocking, however if you believe Montreal is poised to make a run in the NHL playoffs, you might want to reconsider that notion based on shaky defense at present time.

Returning to original question, is it a good idea to wager on a hot goaltender, a 39-35 record, with -3.04 units lost would signify no. There are a few instances that could be bankroll builder, like playing East teams or finding shorter money line plays on road underdogs. In addition, playing against smallish road favorites has have proven in profitable in 2008-09 campaign. The best advice is be very selective and know the numbers, otherwise pass.

NBA: Favorites or Dogs Post All-Star Break?

The All-Star Break gave players a chance to rest up, party, relax, or do whatever they so desire in the few days off they have. Coaches and general managers have the time to look more closely at their teams to come up with a strategy for the rest of the season. That strategy could even be more so for seasons to come through the addition or subtraction of players through trades or acquisitions.

Will there be a team that makes a second half push to make the playoffs similar to the way Philadelphia did last season rallying from an 18-30 SU record with their 22-12 run to grab a playoff berth? The 76ers cashed tickets during that amazing turnaround at a 61.8% clip. Even more amazing was Houston’s second-half thrust going 33-8 SU, 27-12 ATS, in their final 41 games. They rallied from a 22-19 SU, 20-21 ATS mark at the half-way point.

Looking more at the norm, once an NBA season gets past the halfway point, there isn’t much left to the element of surprise. Squads that are outperforming their preseason expectations, such as the Atlanta Hawks, are now common knowledge. There is no sneaking up on the competition, no catching the other squad with their guard down.

Teams that haven’t lived up to what their outlook was before the season tipped off, like the Phoenix Suns, aren’t going to be feared by their competitors. There probably won’t be as many “look aheads” for teams who will be playing Phoenix in their next game after they play their current one.

While teams and players have some preconceived notions on what to expect from the competition based on what has transpired so far this year, so do the public and the oddsmakers. So does this mean there might be some advantages and betting edges that we can find which will help us win more wagers than we lose? Let’s see if we can find some.

I wanted to compare how teams do in the second half of the season using a few qualifiers to see if the first half is much different than the second half. The All-Star break comes slightly past the true 41-game halfway median with teams playing at least 50 games already. As my measuring stick, I called the first half of the season up to game #49 and the second half involved games 50 to 82. I went back in the exercise to the beginning of the 2003 season. Playoff games were not included in the data sample and I only looked at against the spread and Over/Under records, not straight-up marks.

I first compared a very basic situation: home favorites with no additional qualifiers. There was very little difference in the ATS numbers with home faves covering 50.9% of the time in the second half but not quite as good in the first half, 49.4%. The comparative Over/Under records were very close to the same.

I then made my home favorite a double-digit fave and we did get a little more differential with the home team in the second half improving to 51.7% versus 47.0% in the first half. Again, the O/U records were very close.

I then looked at home underdogs and got an opposite result as before. Instead of the home team doing better after game 50+ as compared to earlier in the campaign, the home team, the dog, now did worse, 45.0%, 302-369, compared to a 581-599 record, 49.2%.

Where I got some very distinct numbers was when I made the home dogs getting ten or more points. Again, an exact opposite depending upon which half of the season the game was played in. The first half saw home double-digit dogs cover the spread 61.3% of the time, with the second half HD’s suffering a huge drop to only covering the number 26.7% of the time. That is a very large dichotomy.

So far we have data supporting that favorites do a better job in covering the point spread in the second half of the season versus the first half with the bigger favorites doing even much better.
I next wanted to test the belief that as the season wears on, playing a back-to-back game has a bigger effect on teams than it does earlier in the season when players are fresher. When you factor in travel to an 82-game season, the number of games played has to have a cumulative effect on the players.

Home favorites with zero rest playing in the first 49 games covered the point spread 48.0% of the time of the season. This improved slightly to 50.0% from game 50 onward. Where there was a more significant second half of the season improvement was when a home fave’s opponent is playing without any rest. There our home fave jumped from a 49.1% ATS mark to a 54.2% success ratio.

Looking at the home underdogs having no rest in a game, there is a difference from the first part of the season covering the spread 47.0% of the time to 41.4% for the second half. Even a bigger swing is noted if you make this game between two conference foes. The first half ATS tally climbs to 52.2% ATS for the home dog while the second half drops to beating the number only 35.1% of the time.

Not having any rest clearly affects the underdog team much more in the second half of the season than the team that is favored. We can make the assumption that the underdog team is usually the lower quality team, especially if they are getting points at home. But let’s ignore who is favored or getting points in a game and just look at the teams’ winning percentages. Do higher quality teams win more games against the number against poor quality teams in the second half than they did in the first half?

The answer to that question is yes as teams with a 60% winning percentage playing a team who is winning less than 40% of their game covers the spread only 45.6% during the first 49 games. However, the good team’s ATS record improves to 52.2% from game 50 on. In this scenario of good versus bad team, there is quite a swing in the totals with the first-half games going Over the lined total at a 52.7% frequency. This is the opposite in the second half of the season with the Under happening 56.3% of the time.

Good teams improve in their ATS rate in the final part of the season when they are going against bad teams along with a dichotomy in Over/Unders.

Last year I wrote an article about a high number of teams at both ends of the ATS spectrum around the mid-point of the season. There were seven teams covering the point spread at a rate above 60%. In doing research I learned that beginning with the 2002 campaign, there have been a TOTAL of four instances when a team has finished the season with a 60% or better ATS winning percentage. And, what was even more amazing, two of those four times a team barely made it to that level with an exact 60% ATS winning percentage.

I stated it might be a good time to consider fading or avoiding betting on those seven teams as I did not believe that number of teams would maintain such a high rate of covering the point spread. Only three teams finished at 60%+ last season, which is still a high number in relationship to the past.

Last season at the time of my article there were four teams winning at a 40% or worst rate against the spread. And just like the number of high percentage winning teams, that is quite unusual. It had only happened a total of four times the prior five seasons that a team failed to cover more than 40% of their games! All four of those teams last season climbed above a 40% ATS rate, even though the Clippers came close at only 40.4%.

This season we only have two teams at or above a 60% mark covering the number, Orlando and Cleveland. However, we do have four teams below the Mendoza line of 40% ATS: Phoenix, Washington, Detroit, and Memphis, with a fifth team very close at 40.4%, Toronto. If history holds true, most of those teams should climb above the 40% ATS winning rate.

Jim Kruger is the man at Vegas Sports Authority.

Interesting Wednesday at 3DW

I’ll take another 2 out 3 day and if the guys from the LCC start hitting a few more Free Plays, we’ll really get on a roll. One individual is going HUGE on a NBA game tonight and I’m supporting him all the way. Today’s Top Trend involves the best team in the NBA in a perfect situation. If you like underdogs, we have a system in college hoops that an 82.1 winner, which you should enjoy. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON road underdogs like N.C. State of 10 to 19.5 points, off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival, against opponent off two straight wins within the league. Over the last 11 seasons, this system is 32-7 ATS. 82.1 percent, adding three more winners this year without a loss.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Los Angeles Lakers are 10-0 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams, allowing shooting percentage defense of 46 percent or worse, in the second half of the season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) A member of the Left Coast Connection made a max bet at every location he could on the Milwaukee Bucks at +2, +1.5 or money line. The dude has to have “onions” and I hope he wins.

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The NBA Second Half Picture

The NBA’s second half of the season is about to begin and though the playoffs can be interesting like last season, only a few select teams have a realistic chance to win the NBA title. The rest are pretenders and wanna-be’s and are or could be in the NBA playoffs, with little or no chance to be champions. Here is a look into the crystal ball from this point forward.

True Eastern Conference Contenders

There are three teams in the East with a legitimate chance to be the Eastern Conference representative in the finals and Bookmaker.com bares this out. Under the category of odds for number one seeds, Boston is -145, Cleveland +130 and Orlando +1275.

Boston being the favorite, still has problems to consider, especially with ability to look back to last season. P.J. Brown and James Posey were two valuable bench players the Celtics had and neither is around this year. This would not seem to be an issue finishing out the regular season with a flourish and it might not mean anything if they lack height in the East, since nobody has exceptionally tall players to contend with. However, if the Lakers are the opponent in the finals and Andrew Bynum is back to at least play 20-25 minutes per game, Boston could be caught short, literally, with bad mismatches and not enough scoring. No deals are possible to make the Celtics better at this time.

Cleveland not being healthy limits what they can realistically do to be in position to defeat Boston four times in seven games. With Sasha Pavlovic and Delonte West still sidelined, Wally Szczerbiak is the best option at shooting guard, though making a trade with Phoenix to acquire Amare Stoudemire or Jason “Speedy” Richardson (caught driving 90 MPH in 35 speed zone with child in the car) is tempting if one of Robert Sarver’s multiple personalities is available at that moment to make deal. You wouldn’t think the Cavs could keep covering at 33-18 ATS rate, however the East has enough softies and LeBron has the club ready to go almost every night. GM Danny Ferry either stands pat or finds perfect deal to add paint scorer and rebounder.

With Jameer Nelson listed at 6’0, it’s hard to fathom a player of his stature would have such an impact on a NBA team. However, his value is easy to measure for the Orlando Magic. Since being injured on Feb.2, Orlando is 2-3 SU and ATS, with two of the losses coming at home. What Nelson added besides being part of a contingent of deadly three-point shooters was the ability to penetrate deep and find Dwight Howard or open shooter. Nobody else has that talent on the Magic roster. The most obvious solution to improve is to sit down with Rashard Lewis and explain to him his salary is based on elite production, not what he feels like any given game. Get Lewis to match the value of paycheck, more possibilities open up.

True Western Conference Contenders

This might be a misnomer anyways, but this is how the West shakes out. The L.A. Lakers are prohibitive -2200 favorites to be top seed, San Antonio second at +1400 and Denver third at +1600. The Lakers sweeping Cleveland and Boston does point to them being more tough-minded than a year ago. Pau Gasol has meshed into the fold and the players know what it is like to play without Andrew Bynum. That doesn’t mean the Lakers are cinch to beat either club without Bynum. The task could be made easier with a focused Lamar Odom, who has been a force since returning to starting lineup. Keep his head on straight (good luck Phil) and maybe Los Angeles has enough. Counting on Odom three and four months down the road is like believing Shaq is coming back to the Lakers.

Tim Duncan was campaigning for a partner to score near the bucket and who likes to rebound, during the All-Star break. That is easier said than done and coach Greg Popovich is more concerned with how his team’s defensive efforts have fallen (18th field goal defense percentage) then adding a Vince Carter whose salary but doesn’t improve defense.

The Denver Nuggets look to have their best team since George Karl arrived as coach. Denver shoots a higher percentage than San Antonio (47.2 vs 46.5), plays better positional defense, in ranking as the best team in the West (fourth overall) at 44.1 percent field goal defense and has a slightly better points differential than the Spurs (+3.6 to +3.3). For the Nuggets, it is the mental hurdle of surpassing the Spurs. They trail the Duncan Gang by one game, which means they have to be two games better than the Spurs the rest of the way, since they won’t meet again in regular season.

East Playoff Contenders

Atlanta has a three game lead for the fourth seed in the East and as long as they keep winning at home with 19-6 mark (12-13 ATS) they should stay right where they are. Throw a limp blanket over Miami, Philadelphia and Detroit for slots five thru seven. Based on all-around play, Philadelphia appears to have the best shot to be fifth seed and outside chance of moving all the way to fourth. The Sixers have home and home with both other contenders and if they keep focusing on team, they should have an excellent chance for success.

Not sure if A.I. cutting hair helps the Pistons, who look like a prize fighter well past his prime. Miami has been better, yet beyond D-Wade, not built for stretch run.

It doesn’t seem humanly possible Milwaukee can or will hang on to last playoff position with all the injuries, especially if they move Richard Jefferson. This would open the door for New Jersey, Chicago, New York and Charlotte, with the Nets the choice if they start to play better at home (11-16 SU and ATS).

West Playoff Contenders

Three games separate the six teams fighting for five playoff slots. Portland is the likely choice to finish fourth, with still a chance to catch Denver for Northwest Division crown. The Blazers have the best point differential at +3.5 among the contenders. Portland has the second best home record out West at 20-5 (15-9-1 ATS) and like Dallas, has the most remaining home games (16), which should help a young and improving club.

With All-Stars Chris Paul and David West back to full health and Tyson Chandler reportedly not far behind, New Orleans is poised to make a run at No.4 seed. With 18 of the remaining 32 games on the road, the Hornets would appear to be at disadvantage; however Chandler is the key, does he plays with the intensity of last year or the nonplussed performer he has been most of this year.

Not certain about the rest of squads in contention. Houston and Dallas are above average hangers on. Utah has had the injury bug most of the year and has a long way to go to overcome 9-17 (11-15 ATS) road record. Phoenix is quickly sinking into a laughable franchise with owner Robert Sarver being the Joe Biden of the NBA, never really sure what he’s going to do next.

Tuesday's Top Wagering Action

Two out of three winners is a good way to start the week and we’ll be looking for at least that for Tuesday. The Top Trend came thru yesterday in college basketball and we’ll go with it again, focusing attention on the Missouri Valley. Have an electric system ready to ignite, posting an 86.6 percent record the last five seasons. Even though we have had hot bettors, their top plays have not been so hot. Let’s hope they start hitting again. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites like the Lakers, who have a +7 point or higher per game differential, against an average team (+ or - 3 PPG differential), after a loss by six points or less. Have to give system high marks with 26-4 ATS record since 2004, including 4-0 this season.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Bradley Braves are 14-2 ATS off a win against a conference rival over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Paul Buck nailed six of his last seven NBA plays before the break and is taking San Antonio to continue his winning ways.

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Pittsburgh and Connecticut Thoughts

So you want to play NBA general manager and take Hasheem Thabeet as the number one pick? Before you decide to do that, I’d play the tape Pittsburgh and Connecticut contest over and over again before making up my mind. You can defend the fact he was in foul trouble, yet the fact is the Pittsburgh game plan was to go right at him and it succeeded. DeJuan Blair so outplayed him (22 points and a career-high 23 rebounds), Thabeet looked like another tall stiff against a REAL All-American.

In the game write-up, I mentioned the Huskies really didn’t have anybody to match up with Sam Young and did that turn out to be true. Pittsburgh just had more options to score and was tougher-minded throughout.

I really like what Kemba Walker brings at guard and I believe he is going to have to be the player to take Jerome Dyson’s place. The huge advantage UConn had over opponents has disappeared in the backcourt.

Both teams are certainly capable of making it to the Final Four and already the season ending matchup on March 7 is something to look forward to.

Eyes Wide Open in Phoenix

Are the Phoenix Suns turning into a joke? For starters, Commish Stern has to peeved the biggest news each day over the weekend in the NBA was not the All-Star game, but the ongoing front office saga of the Suns. Owner Robert Sarver changes his mind quicker than a six year old. One minute he wants to win the NBA title and the next, move salary. Bobby, make up your mind!

Steve Kerr has shown his inexperience throughout since being hired. The move for Shaq was calculated risk and though nobody really believed it would work, Phoenix wasn’t going to win a NBA title unless they tried something. The Suns have turned out to be one of those teams that were elite in the league for a number of years, but never good enough to get over the hump. The hiring of Porter was misguided for many reasons, which ultimately all turned out to be true.

Terry Porter was good hire in principle, the problem was the roster. The Suns are littered with one dimensional offensive-minded player’s with almost no interest in playing solid defense. Asking Porter to coach established players that have had a higher level (not the top level like the Big Cactus) of success to change their ways, well unless the team leaders bought in, this was going nowhere and Kerr should have been wise enough to know this.

Porter might be a good coach, however was in the wrong situation. Part of being a coach or any leader for that matter is being a salesman. Porter appeared to believe the professionalism he played with should be how the players should react. The former Portland Trailblazer was never able to line up the right players to get the team to follow his leadership, which ultimately led to his demise.

The Suns players have also been child-like. Here is a group of players who have never won anything (except one) and they flat out refused to truly embrace something different that MIGHT have made them better. Amare Stoudemire was one of the biggest frauds. He was happy as clam last season when Shaq arrived and he could play power forward and dominate with greater freedom in uptempo style. But when his touches and scoring opportunities were being used up in new scheme, his displeasure and body language could not have been more apparent.

With Jason Richardson getting into trouble twice with the law since being traded to the desert, this is a volatile situation and Alvin Gentry himself goes into a dicey spot.

Gentry is used to being a go between as assistant, now he will be calling the shots. The players may be thankful for looser offensive reins, but he is still going to ask them to play defense. Throw in the roster isn’t settled yet either, with Stoudemire still possibly on the move, since Sarver isn’t about to overpay for a fringe playoff team that is over the salary cap.

What was for years one of the most stable franchises in the NBA, is now in turmoil with no simple solutions.

All-Star Party in the Desert

It is confirmed. The NBA's All-Star extravaganza has officially become the weekend's biggest block party.

After watching the Eastern and Western Conference team introductions last night I felt like I had just seen a rap video on MTV.

They didn't have the chrome rims or bikini car washes, but the elaborate production glistened with a stage full of dancers, blaring music, DJs and whatever else you might need to make the hardfloor go hip-hop.

And just when I thought the event couldn't get any more gangsta, Shaquille O'Neal appeared. Sirens went off, smoke filled the air and the Diesel emerged from a closed box.

Flanked by these JabbaWockeeZ mimes (I guess they won some reality show called America's Best Dance Crew but I wouldn't know anything about that because I don't watch that stuff) Shaq busted into some sort of rhythmic movement of the body and legs that might be considered a form of dancing. It was comparable to his professional "rapping" endeavors.

So after about 45 minutes of meaningless charades the association's 58th All-Star game commenced, and actually started out with some defense. At the end of the first quarter it looked like a normal game with the score 34-27 in favor of the West. But by halftime both teams had nearly hit the 70-point mark (72-67), defense was lagging and the game began to look like a Suns and Warriors shootout.

The West expanded their lead to about 20, giving them a nice cushion throughout the third quarter (and the rest of the game). Then the fourth quarter started and the contest began to emulate a traveling circus. Four to five steps were being taken on every non-existent traveling violation and cherry-picking was happening at both ends of the court.

The last minute of the game was the Dunk Contest Part Deaux. Alley oops, windmill jams and reverse slams. And let me just tell you how the last score of the game went down. LeBron James held the ball for about 20 seconds and then both teams cleared out so he could toss himself a pass off the backboard and throw down a thundering dunk.

This final bucket promptly sent the score over the total Vegas had offered by one point. I would have been sick if I had taken the under, but then again you might already be sick if you're betting on the NBA All-Star game.

And if what TNT and the NBA provided already wasn't enough to roll around in laughter until next year, they capped it off with a rekindling love affair.

Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O'Neal were named the co-MVPs. How cute is that? Can they build up the love/hate soap opera of these two any more? Give me a break.

I can't wait until the 59th NBA All-Star game next year, it should be about as uneventful as all the other ones.


Scott Cooley shares his thoughts on various subjects.

President's Day is more than Mattress Sales

What an insane day in college basketball yesterday, with underdogs 10-7 against the spread, which included EIGHT outright upsets. 3Daily Winners took it on the chin with 1-3 mark and will look to regroup today. Mark of the Left Coast Connection is back and is smoldering hot with his plays over the last several days. The Top Trend hones in how Louisiana Tech has fared against quality competition this season. The Best System out there on President’s Day is on the ice and a solid winner. Good Luck.

I’m somewhat surprised, but a number of big time bettors are staying away from Pitt and UConn tonight. They must believe the line is dead on.

Free Hockey System-1) PLAY UNDER on road teams like the N.Y. Rangers where the total is 5.5 - off a home loss against a division rival, with a winning record on the season. Over the last five seasons, this has been a steady winner at 34-8, 81 percent, which has held true again this season at 4-1.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Louisiana Tech is 9-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Mark of the LCC is turning heads with 22-10 all sports record since Thursday and he expects Texas to lasso the rival Aggies.

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Talk about your BIG Monday's!

All season long, it has been one exceptional game after another on the first day of the work week in nation’s best conference. This Monday, the importance, entertainment and wagering opportunity hits a season high as No.4 Pittsburgh visits Big East rival and No.1 Connecticut. No sushi or triple lattes will be served for this Big East smash mouth bash. This will be “enter at your risk” war in the paint. This is the first of two meetings between Pitt and UConn, and a third is quite possible.

The Huskies (24-1, 12-9 ATS) had started to show the promise most believed they were capable of back in November and have the look of the odds on favorite to emerge as national champs. Those beliefs have hit a fork in the road with the likely season ending injury to starting guard Jerome Dyson, due to a torn meniscus. As is the case when this happens to any team late in the season, you just have to pick a direction and keep your fingers crossed it works out.

No team in the country has Hasheem Thabeet to rule the lane and if he is going to be the player that is to elevate his game for coach Jim Calhoun’s club, than the injury might not matter. The 7-foot-3 junior set new career highs with 25 points and 20 rebounds in a 62-54 win at Seton Hall on Saturday and for good measure blocked nine shots.

“The difference tonight (Saturday) was there were nine players and Hasheem,” Calhoun said. “Every once in a while you see that.” When the big man plays that way, UConn can only add to 83-47 ATS record when they make 47 to 53 percent of their shots.

Don’t look for Pittsburgh’s tough-minded crew to back away from the challenge. DeJuan Blair and Tyrell Biggs are going to try to bring Thabeet down to their level with physical play. Blair ranks fifth nationally with 12.3 rebounds per game, including 5.8 on the offensive end— easily the most in the country, while averaging a double-double.

Pittsburgh forward Sam Young can create matchup issues for UConn, with his ability to go inside and out to fill the net. Though the Huskies have not been out-rebounded all season, the Panthers (23-2, 13-6 ATS) are fundamentally sound in rebounding and could gather Huskies fouls and easy put-back baskets with their technique. Pittsburgh is 11-2 ATS playing teams with 80 percent or higher win percentage over the last two seasons.

The battle of point guards should be worth viewing all by itself. Levance Fields has been downright unstoppable of late, scoring better than 12 points a game and dealing the rock incredibly in piling up the “dimes”. Fields has 56 assists and six turnovers in his past five games. Connecticut’s A.J. Price has not been as consistent on offense as in prior years, but he has distributed the ball better in his senior season and wants the ball to make the big shot at crunch time.

Connecticut still has senior Craig Austrie to plug in as guard and freshman Kemba Walker is a big time talent. Forward Jeff Adrien is a beast near the glass for both rebounding and scoring and Stanley Robinson offers several flexible options for a team that is 25-15 ATS in home games after five or more consecutive wins.

Bookmaker.com has opened Connecticut as three-point favorites with a total of 136.5. The Huskies are 16-4 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pick. Pittsburgh is 7-2 and 6-3 ATS on the road and UConn is 1-6-1 ATS if opponent has winning percentage of 60 percent or higher on the road. The Panthers have won last five games by 16.6 points per game since losing to Villanova and is 8-1 ATS after four straight wins by 10 points or more. Nonetheless, playing the top-rated team in the country on their floor is treacherous and Pitt is 0-13 all-time.

The Huskies are 12-1 and 8-5 ATS in Big East action, winning by 13.1 points a game and they are 9-3-1 against the spread in last 13 Monday night assignments. ESPN will have the coverage of round one of these two highly ranked squads starting at 7 Eastern, with the road team 7-3 ATS.

Two Sunday System Plays -88.9 Percent

Slightly disappointed didn’t get the 3-0 day we were looking for, however can never complain about 2-1. Today’s Top System yields TWO plays from an 88.9 situation. Sunday means ACC action and we have a sharp angle that is 92.3 percent. Sal is bubbling hot in college hoops, watch for his Top Play today. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON road favorites of 10 or more points, in a game involving two average three point shooting teams (32-36.5 percent) after 15+ games, with the favorite averaging 14 or fewer turnovers and the underdog an average pressure defensive team, forcing 14.5-17.5 turnovers. The idea behind this spectacular 24-3 ATS system is the favorite is unlikely to be effected by dog’s defense and the points the underdog might normally earn of turnovers won’t materialize and the road favorite covers. Play On Illinois and Akron today.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Clemson Tigers are 12-1 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams forcing 14 or fewer turnovers a game over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Sal of the Left Coast Connection is en fuego after 6-1 Saturday, taking him to 34-9, 79 percent in last 43 plays in betting college basketball. He's expecting Northwestern to overcome disappointment earlier this week and take down Michigan.

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Valentine Day Plays - Hope they are Sweet

Good turnaround day with 2-1 record and have the taste on Valentine’s Day for 3-0 mark. We’ll start with a system that is 86.2 percent over a dozen seasons and should be better than those heart-shaped candies. An unbeaten trend hopefully won’t break any hearts and Sal has been digging up more winners than a box of chocolates and will has his Best Bet. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Bradley, after two straight losses by 10 points or more, against opponent after four straight games where both teams score 70 points or less. This system checks in a very healthy 25-4 ATS, 86.2 percent over the last 12 years.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Citadel is 9-0 ATS in road lined games this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Sal of the Left Coast Connection continues his spirited run in betting college basketball with winner yesterday, taking him to 28-8 and his Top Play is Creighton.

NBA All-Star Saturday Wagering Options

With the NBA teams off for a few days, one can idly pass the time by placing wagers on the action in downtown Phoenix Saturday night, while watching on TNT. The always popular Slam Dunk Contest will be shown, with Dwight Howard returning to defend title. The Skills Challenge and 3-Point Shooting Contest are still in the mix and a new fun event was added. Players will play the old-school game of H-O-R-S-E and though the corporate sponsor will have the naming rights, it doesn’t have to be mentioned here.

Slam Dunk Contest Odds

Dwight Howard -135
J.R. Smith +235
Nate Robinson +500
Rudy Fernandez +500

Analysis – The last two of three Slam Dunk champions are in the field and the dynamics of this event have changed. Fans will be able to determine the winner for the second time in the history of the event, instead of a panel of judges. Fans will be able to cast their votes by sending a text message or by voting on NBA.com. This seems to lend the competition not so much to skill, rather to theatrics, like Howard had last year. Since Howard is the biggest name, you have to go with him, unless Robinson comes up with a ploy to excite texters.

Winner- Howard
Longshot - Robinson

3-Point Shooting Odds

Jason Kapono +120
Rashard Lewis +300
Danny Granger +300
Mike Bibby +800
Roger Mason +500
Daequan Cook +800

Analysis- Jason Kapono tries to become the first three-peat winner of the 3-point shootout since Craig Hodges (1990-92). Have to agree with oddsmakers, Bibby and Cook are longshots. Lewis is probably the most dangerous competitor to Kapono, since he can stroke it and stay hot for a period of time. Granger is proof of hard-working self-made player who developed an outside game. Unfortunately, it won’t matter much on this stage, running around the half circle. Mason has become a big time clutch shooter with the Spurs when they need a basket and is intriguing choice to pull the upset. Expect Kapono to be focused to tie Hodges and his boyhood hero Larry Bird as three-time long distance champion.

Winner- Kapono
Longshot - Mason

Skills Challenge Odds

Tony Parker +200
Derrick Rose +300
Devin Harris +200
Mo Williams +250

Analysis- A big part of this competition is desire. In the past, the winner is a proven commodity who wants to show the world his multiple skills or a player ready to take it to next level, like Deron Williams did last season. Parker doesn’t need the pub; however Harris and Williams are hungry for a taste. Rose certainly has the skills, look for next time.

Winner- Harris
Longshot - Williams

HORSE Competition Odds

O.J. Mayo +150
Kevin Durant +165
Joe Johnson +175

Analysis- The first thing everyone needs to know is no dunking, this is about shot making and creativity is important. Though this group is packed tightly together, Durant has range and is more of a gym rat player and probably has plenty of shimmy in his repertoire to have the other competitors chasing him.

Winner - Durant

Friday the 13th- Non-Movie version

What a difference determination makes. Notre Dame wanted to win so badly and Louisville looked like they would have just as soon played video games and ordered Papa John’s pizzas. I was trying to think of school that has lost more close games in improbable ways at home than Northwestern. How they lost to Illinois was inconceivable.

The express slowed with 1-2 outcome and the action is thinner than a side view of Paris Hilton. Going NHL for today’s Top Trend and have to bring Sal right back for free play as he stays white hot in college basketball betting. Today’s best system is not official play at 78 percent, but worth noting. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON an underdog like St. Peter’s off a close road win by three points or less, playing on Friday nights. This system is 32-9 ATS, 78 percent, with average margin of victory 3.6 points.

Free Hockey Trend -2) The San Jose Sharks are 12-1 against the money line after failing to win four of their last five over the last three seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Sal continues to fill his basket with winners at 27-8 and is playing Butler tonight.

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Be Sure to Watch for the (Poison) Ivy League

Being a coach in the Ivy League has to be a hard job, you can only recruit a very select group of young men, who have virtually no interest in playing in the NBA and they went to college, ready for this, for an education. Betting the Ivy League can be a real education also. Playing only when school is out on Friday and Saturday nights, (expect for the occasional Penn and Princeton weekday game –their so special), they at least draw attention, especially when the NBA takes a break for All-Star weekend. Here is what to watch (or lookout) for in Ivy action tonight.

Handicapping the Ivy is extremely difficult unless you read up on all eight teams, as seven of the eight started league play with losing records, so you have to just focus on what they are doing now. Take the Big Green from Dartmouth; they were supposed to be a one man team behind senior forward Alex Barnett. Though Barnett is indispensable, coach Terry Dunn has played 10 players in games, when most experts weren’t sure if they had five useable players. Dartmouth is 4-2 and 5-1 in league play and 15-5 ATS after two or more consecutive Unders.

Bookmaker.com has Columbia as 8.5-point favorite over the Big Green (what’s that mascot look like, Gumby). The Lions have a ferocious defense which only allows 40.2 percent of shot attempts. They need to since the offense only makes 39.7 percent of heaves towards the rim. Columbia (3-3, 4-2 ATS in Ivy) lost at Princeton and is 9-2 ATS after one or more consecutive losses. The Lions appear to be oversized favorite until you notice the Big Green is like a small light green sponge on the road losing by over 18 points a game.

Princeton (4-0 SU & ATS) is in first place, after stammering through non-conference slate like Joaquin Phoenix on Letterman the other night. The Tigers have a seven game winning streak and have guarded like the Secret Service in giving up just 56.8 ppg. Princeton is making the trip up to Yale and is 5-0 ATS on the road this season.

This will be just Yale’s second league home game (3-3, 2-4 ATS) and they 4-1 on the year at John J. Lee Amphitheater (typical Ivy, can’t call it gym, have to call it an amphitheater). In tonight’s performance, err contest, the Bulldogs are going to have to do better than convert 28.5 percent from beyond the arc and make more than 65.7 percent from the charity stripe to win as two-point favorites. Yale has won last four matchups.

Had to go back and actually confirm Harvard (2-4, 0-6 ATS) beat Boston College after the Eagles had tumbled than No. 1 North Carolina. Based on how the Crimson has played since, the B.C. loss should go down as one of the great all-time flat performances ever. Can’t help but think Harvard will regret the day they hired Tommy Amaker as coach, since the term “good coach” and his last name are never used in the same sentence. Harvard is 2-11 ATS as a road underdog or pick under Amaker, but at least has Jeremy Lin who scores 20 ppg in Ivy play.

Cornell (5-1, 4-2 ATS) is the most powerful team in the league and has a record that worthy at 15-7. The Big Red saw their 19-game Ivy League winning streak end last weekend at Princeton 61-41 and they are better than a two touchdown favorite over Harvard to make it two wins in a row, starting another streak. Cornell has been dealing with injuries and has enough talent to work thru them. Big Red (not a gum reference) is 12-4 ATS after playing a road game.

One of my favorite sports betting movies is James Caan in “The Gambler”. In that movie, Caan is listening for basketball scores and hears one he doesn’t like and says, “Brown? Brown ain’t crap” or words very similar. Well, Caan is correct again, with the Bears in last place (0-6, 2-4 ATS), but they actually favored by a point over Penn (1-3 SU & ATS) at home, since they have also played like a, a, crap. With Brown (Chris Berman’s alma mater) 0-7 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog, not sure I’d support either team. The Quakers are 9-18 ATS as underdogs and don’t exactly exude the confidence infomercial maven Kevin Trudeau.

Be careful playing in the Ivy League patch, you don’t want to wake up scratching in the morning.

Red Wydley wrote this article.

Winning Hockey Systems offer G-R-E-A-T Profits

With most NHL teams having less than 30 games left on the regular season docket, the juggling for playoff positions is about to begin in earnest, thought now would be an excellent time to pinpoint a narrow group of hockey systems that would be easy to follow and have quite a track record of success. Let’s start the perusing the action with one of the best.

Play Against - Road underdogs against the money line, revenging a road loss versus opponent, who is winning 30 percent or less of their games into the second half of the entire season.

If this underdog is matched up against an inferior opponent, who has already beaten them and the oddsmakers think so little of this hockey team on the road, why should we put what money we have made betting on the NHL on this loser? At this juncture, we are talking about a team that wins maybe one of every three games, being a home favorite. Yet those setting the money line are telling us the road dog is not to be trusted. Since 1996, playing against this droopy road pooch has yielded 26-3, 89.7 percent record.

Play On - Road favorites against the money line, after failing to cover four of their last five against the spread - versus opponent after having covered two of their last three games.

This renowned system takes into consideration the “due” factor and matches it with the oddmakers judgment. If a hockey club is in a minor slump, like virtually all teams will suffer, and is still well thought of enough to be road chalk, this deserves our attention. The home team has played fairly well, but doesn’t impress anyone, especially those setting the numbers as a home underdog. If the home dog would have beaten a San Jose, Boston or Detroit, they would certainly have earned more respect, particularly versus a club down on its luck. Over the last three years, a 21-2 record is more than good; it’s Tony the Tiger G-R-E-A-T!

Play Against - Road favorites against the money line, who are a good offensive team - scoring 2.85 or more goals a game, after four straight wins by two goals or more in the second half of the season.

This system plays to the fact it is hard to keep giving domineering performances, no matter how talented a team may be offensively. This would be similar to a baseball team averaging eight runs a game and winning by four or more over extended time, it can’t last forever. With most hockey totals hovering around 5.5 goals and home teams winning a hair over 56 percent of the time this season, it is extremely difficult for a road favorite to keep winning later in the season as 22-5, 81.5 percent record shows.

Play Against - Any team against the money line, after successfully winning two or more consecutive games - in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49 percent).

This is not a system that is profitable every NHL season, nonetheless it is this year. A few teams have separated themselves in division races and only Ottawa, Atlanta and the New York Islanders are truly dreadful. This means if a team is below .500, they are unlikely to put together a substantial winning streak, even facing similar competition. In 2008-09, this system has been a winner 15 out of 20 times.

Play Against - road teams against the money line, who are weak defensively, allowing three or more goals a game on the season, after a loss by two goals or more in their previous game, after half the season is completed.

No need to pull that online degree you can buy having a doctorate in Mathematical Sciences, this is merely a case of sieve-like defenses unable to stop the puck in the own end. Whether its poor defensemen or a goalie having another off-night between the pipes, this squad is going to have to play unusually well on defense or score a handful of goals to pull out a win on the road. Since the start of the 2006-07 campaign, this money line system is 47-20, 70.1 percent. At present, a dozen teams meet the criteria of being poor on defense, which is the point of entry for this situation.

Cooley's Comtemplations -103 Damnations

One big name leaked into our laps so may we please have the remaining 103?

On Monday afternoon, New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez confessed to using performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs) for three seasons during his illustrious baseball career.

This is about as big of news as there has been since steroids, HGH and PEDs entered the diamond of the public eye. Baseball fans across the nation have been waiting for a confession like this, and the renaissance of cleaner games on the sandlot is eagerly anticipated by all.

But rest assured, there are many more dark days to come before the Steroid Era is gone.

This is a period in baseball that will never be forgotten. It will be talked about by our children, our children's children and their children's children. The game will eventually rid itself of this disease with its deep and rich history, and it looks like now could be the beginning of the cleansing process.

But more players must follow the lead Alex Rodriguez provided.

Rodriguez has been a Mariner, a Ranger and a Yankee, but on Monday he was a sacrificial lamb. He tossed aside his pride and said, "I am pretty tired of being stupid and selfish and the truth needed to be told a long time ago, and I'm glad it's coming out today. I was young, I was stupid, I was naive. I am very sorry and deeply regretful."

Rodriguez seemed to be sincerely remorseful for taking illegal PEDs from 2001 to 2003 while playing for Texas. As he gave his testimony to Peter Gammons sitting in a chair with a blue sweater and white collar, he appeared to be relieved, scared, contemplative and emotional all at the same time. He even began to choke-up when speaking about his fans "that will never look at (him) the same."

Perhaps his white collar in the interview had an unknowing symbolic significance. Maybe it proves that even celebrities are normal people, just like the white collar worker who is prone to human error.

Rodriguez coming clean in front of the nation is commendable, but he should have done it sooner. When Jason Giambi and Andy Pettitte admitted their transgressions a new found respect from fans, coaches, players and the media surfaced.

Over time, this will most likely happen with Rodriguez as well. But now while the iron is hot, the other 103 players should raise their hands and also confess to what they did.

In 2003, Major League Baseball gave an unannounced drug test to a group of active players to see if mandatory, random testings were needed in the sport. After results were gathered and it was determined baseball had a steroid problem, MLB was going to destroy the 104 positive samples, but the federal government issued a subpoena and the list was taken by investigators.

This testing was a secret screening where the results were supposed to be kept confidential and no punishments for positive results were to be handed out. The players' samples were even locked away in one location while the list was stored in another.

One can't help but image what sort of encasement the list and samples were kept in and what kind of credentials a person needed to access them? Did the key holder have to go through a series of fingerprint and retina scans to get to the list?

It kind of sounds like Area 51 with the extra terrestrials and the government hiding everything.

The same place one might find the remaining 103 culprits who cheated the game, the fans and their teams.

Why is it fair for one player to be thrown to the wolves but not the others? Why was it that only Rodriguez's name was divulged from this confidential investigation? Is it so terrible to ask for others to come forward?

Honesty has always been and will always be the best policy.

Houston Astros shortstop Miguel Tejada appear in court on Wednesday for lying to Congressional investigators when he told them he had not taken PEDs during his baseball career.

It looks as if Tejada is one of the lingering 103. Perhaps baseball fans will be able to cross a second name off the infamous list.

Beyond the shadows where the cowardly will remain silent is a tiny golf clap of applause for what Alex Rodriguez accomplished on Monday. The praise can be heard over the continuous song of sarcastic pity played by the critics who hold the world's smallest violin.

"Regardless of what we want to mask and say and justify there is absolutely no excuse for what I did," stated Rodriguez. "If I was a fan, I would be very pissed off."

We are very pissed off. But we are also human and have the ability to forgive, but that begins with more players admitting guilt.

Rodriguez got the monkey off his back, now we need to get the elephant out of the room.


Scott Cooley is Freelance Writer who shares his wisdom here.

Betting on Abe Lincoln's Birthday

I’ll be getting to record keeping soon, but 3Daily Winners have had a number of nice short runs since the beginning of 2009, without any bad losing streaks. Yesterday’s 2-1 mark gives us 6-2 record the last three days, plus the Tar Heels win that was not official. Today’s Free Play is a Philly special, involving two teams with rich basketball tradition. The Top Trend failed yesterday and takes a look at if Notre Dame will extend its losing streak to the longest in 44 years. The Top System is about betting college basketball totals and is exciting 25-3. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY UNDER when the total is 129.5 or less, with a team off three straight wins against conference rivals, with a winning percentage of 80 percent or higher (Utah State in this case), playing a marginal losing team (40 to 49 percent), which is Idaho. This total system is 25-3, 89.3 percent over the last dozen years and has picked up two more wins this season.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Louisville Cardinals are 14-2 ATS in road lined games over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) The LCC member was correct last evening and comes right back taking St. Joseph’s to beat Big 5 member Temple.

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The Latest info from 3Daily Winners

I have to admit, feel bad for Sal, he went 4-1 last night in college basketball and the only one he had wrong was his top play Wichita State here. But those are the rules at 3Daily Winners and a new Free Play is forthcoming after 2-1 day. Yesterday’s prefect Trend was winner, thus I dug another out in the NBA, situated where Mickey lives in Central Florida. LeBron and the boys have lost two in a row, read what the Best System believes will happen tonight to the Cavs. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites like Cleveland, who have a seven point or higher score differential per game, against an pedestrian club like Phoenix, who is (+) or (-) three points in same category, after a loss by six points or less. Color the Cavs 25-4 ATS, 86.2 percent in this system, which has added 3-0 record this year.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Orlando Magic are 9-0 ATS when playing with two days rest this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) A person from the Left Coast Connection who prefers privacy is 14-3 the last three days in all his bets, says the Oklahoma Sooners are the play tonight. FYI- 10 members on North Carolina and three on the Dukies.

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North Carolina at Duke Preview

It all started on January 24, 1920, when North Carolina beat Trinity College (which four years later was change to Duke University) 36-25. Since that contest, this matchup has grown to be voted the third best rivalry in all of sports according to ESPN poll taken this decade. The intensity of the rivalry is augmented by the proximity of the two universities, roughly eight miles apart and is further enhanced with North Carolina being a public school and Duke a private university.

Just the two names of these schools evoke the joy of watching college basketball. North Carolina leads the all-time series 128-97 and annually these are among the best teams in the country. These two schools have played 123 consecutive games with one or both being in the AP Top 20 or Top 25. (It changed to the latter years ago) Duke and North Carolina have met 64 times when both teams were ranked in the Top 25, with the series tied, 32-32.

Though always a fierce rivalry, the modern era of hatred had its roots in the early 1960’s when Duke star and eventual national player of the year Art Heyman got into a fight on the court with North Carolina's Larry Brown, (that’s right, the long-time and current Charlotte Bobcats coach) which resulted in suspensions for both players. With the evolution of cable television in the mid-1980’s, these encounters were regularly broadcast to a larger audience, making coaches Dean Smith and Mike Krzyzewski even bigger stars. The Mar. 4, 2006 battle is the most viewed college basketball game ever on ESPN.

The number of legendary games are too numerous to mention, but they helped cultivate Dick Vitale’s broadcasting career and he has shown his appreciation countless times with his admiration by name-dropping each school at almost every broadcast he does.

With a couple of losses and a few closer than expected contests, North Carolina (21-2, 10-12 ATS) is no longer the most feared team in the country. Though extremely talented, the game to game intensity is not always there, granted, this won’t be an issue for this matchup. If the Tar Heels bring their A-Game, possibly only two or three teams in college basketball are capable of beating them, period.

Coach Roy Williams has two players that can drive the Cameron Crazies nuts, Tyler Hansbrough and Wayne Ellington. Hansbrough and teammate Danny Greene are trying to become the first players since Tim Duncan and Rusty LaRue marched into Durham and won four years in a row. Those Wake Forest teams did so five straight times from 1993-97. "You said it right there - it's winning," Hansbrough said. "Any time you beat them, here or there, it means a lot."

Ellington is nifty shooter and can stroke it with the best in college basketball. Duke has had their problems with guards that have two-way abilities to score, like Ellington. The Tar Heels are 9-2 but just 2-8 ATS playing with three or more days rest.

For Duke (20-3, 11-10-1 ATS) to win, they must keep up defensive intensity, like they have shown most of the year, but not recently. Three of the Blue Devils last four opponents have scored 70 or more points and they have failed to cover on each occasion. On offense, fewer forced three-point shots and more trips to the foul line would help. Duke can not afford to just have Gerald Henderson and Kyle Singler do the scoring. Guards Greg Paulus, Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer must make stronger contributions and center Brian Zoubek will have to have eight points and seven rebounds to be a factor. The Blue Devils are 20-6 ATS when they score 81 or more points in a game over the last two seasons.

Swingman Gerald Henderson is the type of player that can been bothersome to the Tar Heels, being able to score as slasher or bury the jumper. Duke has similar record to UNC with rest at 11-2, however is much better against the spread at 8-4.

Bookmaker.com has listed Duke as two-point home underdogs. The Dukies are 6-2 ATS off a non-cover this season and North Carolina are 5-2 ATS if their opponent has a winning home record The Tar Heels best shot every game, is imposing will on opponent. If the other teams starts playing aggressive defense, this band of Heels will sag for periods when they can’t score. Being as talented as they are, North Carolina is 7-1 and 5-3 ATS in true road games.

Duke is 14-0 at home (6-6-1 ATS) this year and is 7-4 SU in Durham against the team in the Carolina blue jerseys, but just 2-9 ATS. ESPN of course has the telecast starting at 9 Eastern and maybe they will play that unusual clip of Coach K talking about never making the eight mile trip to Chapel Hill.

Bomb Pops and Three Point Bombs

Growing up during the summer, one of the biggest thrills was the arrival of the ice cream man in the neighborhood. The most popular frozen treat was the bomb pop, a popsicle shaped like something ready to drop from a B-17 bomber. They were big and came in a number of flavors including sky blue, which nobody could ever figure out what sky blue tasted like, but eating something with an aqua tint was pretty cool when you were eight years old.

Years later in high school, a friend, Hunter Leathers, asked if I wanted a summer job at Merritt Foods in Kansas City, KS. The owner, James Merritt, had invented and trademarked the bomb pop. I would be working at the only plant in the world that manufactured bomb pops! The job also came with the benefit of all you could eat for free!

The bomb pop syrup went into molds in a large wheel that slowly rotated. The bomb pops froze as the wheel turned. Towards the end of the rotation, an arm would come down injecting a stick into each bomb pop. For some reason, the last stick at the end of a row always went into the bomb pop crooked. My job was to sit there for eight hours a day straightening that last stick. I was a specialist at the factory, a “stick straightener”.

The NBA also has specialists. Some specialists are defensive stoppers, enforcers, or good ball handlers who can shoot free throws well late in the game. The specialist with the most influence on a game is the three-point specialist.

The three-pointer has seen a quantum leap in popularity these past ten years. To begin with, teams are putting up 36.5% more three-point attempts since the beginning of the 1998 season.

In the 1998-99 season, the league average was 13.16 three-point attempts per team in a game.
This season that average is 17.96 downtown shots going up by a team per game. Before you start thinking that part of the reason for the increase is the pace of the game has increased tremendously over the past ten seasons, be mindful that the number of overall field goal attempts in a game has gone from 78.2 to 79.9, an increase of 2.2%. Also, with the increase in attempts, the shooting percentage has improved significantly from 33.9% ten seasons ago to 36.6% this year. Has the players’ shooting improved or has the defense gotten worse over the past ten years? That’s a question for another day.

The gap between the worse three-point shooting team to the best in the league has narrowed measurably from 10.9% ten-seasons ago to just 7.3%. Interestingly enough, in the 1998-99
season the Philadelphia 76ers were the team clanging the most 3’s off of the rim, a paltry 26.4% average. Philly resides at the bottom this year at 32.6%.

Many of the better teams in the league this year are hitting a high accuracy in their bombs from downtown, 39% or better. These include the league leader, Orlando at 39.9%, and San Antonio, New Orleans, and Boston. Phoenix, Cleveland, and Portland are the next three from the top. Except for Phoenix at 57.1%, all of these teams are winning above 60% of their games.

In looking at the worst five teams in shooting the three, only one, Philadelphia, has a winning percentage above .350. The other four, Washington, LA Clippers, Memphis, and Minnesota all shoot 34% or worse on their three-pointers.

Those facts obviously raise the question of the influence on a team’s success in defending behind the arc. Are the bottom teams in the NBA also on the bottom in defensive ability against the three-pointer and visa versa? While the bottom five does include Golden State, Sacramento, and Washington again, a near .500 team, New Jersey, is down there along with a 60%+ squad, Portland. Four of the top five in defending the arc were all 60%+ winners, Orlando, Houston, Boston, and Cleveland, but it is interesting to see the number one defensive squad is the Chicago Bulls, a team several games below .500.

With the weight of importance of the three-pointer increasing over the past decade, how can we profit from this?

Since the beginning of the 2005 season, the team who made more three-pointers won straight-up 63.4% of the time while covering the point spread at a 61.8% rate. That makes sense.

However, if a team made more 3’s than their competitor in a game but the opponent shot a higher percentage on their three-pointers, the team who made more baskets but shot worse only won 41.9% of the games straight-up and covered just 38.1% of the time. Those games went over the lined total 55.3% of the time. The percentage of shots made has a larger influence than the number of 3’s a team drained. If the optimum happens and you make more 3’s and shoot a better percentage than your foe in a game, your winning percentage improves to 69.5% and your ATS mark is a sweet 68.5%.

It seems like common sense to anticipate a game between two poor shooting three-point squads, 33.0% or worse for their season-to-date average, to have a tendency to go Under the lined total. In reality, the exact opposite occurs. Such a game between two poor three-point shooting squads has gone Over the total 57.1% of the time since the start of the 2005 campaign. That mark can be improved to 61.5% going Over, 75-47, if the home team went Over the total in their previous game. One last final improvement to a 65.8% winning rate for playing the Over is if both teams have at least a day of rest from their last game played.And, if you think a game between two good shooting long-range clubs, 36.5% or better for the season, will be a good bet to go Over the lined total, you should think twice. There might be other reasons to bet the Over, but just because both teams can drain 3’s at a good rate isn’t enough as the Under actually happens in 53% of those matches.

A team having good success in their previous game from long-range has some good wagering advantages in their next contest. If a team made more than ten 3’s hitting over 50% of their attempts winning the game by more than ten points, they are 91-69 Over in their next game, 56.9%. We can bump that up to 63.8% if our team happens to be a home favorite in that next game. Instead of being a home fave, if our team is an away dog the Over still does well, 64.4%, and they also cover the point spread 60% of the time.

A similar situation with our team making more than 10 three-pointers at a rate over 50% in their previous game but lost that game, has done poorly in their next game, only winning 39.1% of the time and covering the spread just 41.7% of the time. Having both teams hitting 50%+ from deep with each squad sinking six or more 3’s has produced a poor next-game ATS rate of 36.2% for the loser of the previous game if he is a home favorite.

The Under is also a good play winning 60.4% of the time in those contests.Another example to remember is that a team who shoots over 50% on 3’s two games in a row only covers the point spread 41.3% of the time in their next game.Logic says that a team who does well from downtown in their previous game will have expectations of continued success hoisting shots deep from the perimeter. False expectations of being able to maintain that high of success level leads to failure more times than not. The influence of the three-point shot has increased over the years. The most successful teams are the ones who can both shoot it well and defend against it.

Jim Kruger fires from deep for Vegas Sports Authority.

3Daily Winners for February 10

Great way to start the week at 2-0 and the LCC had two out of three winners on consensus basis. Another rather slow day for system plays, however we found one that fits over the last three years in the NBA. The perfect Trend as correct yesterday and we have another, this time in college hoops. Sal remains very strong in college basketball has his Best Bet for today. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home teams like Atlanta off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, playing with two days rest. In the past three years this system is 26-5 ATS, 83.3 percent, with average margin of victory 10.1 points per game.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Old Dominion is 0-10 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Sal was recently in this spot and thou he missed his play; it hasn’t slowed his down, now at 17-5 in last 22 plays. His top play for Tuesday is Wichita State.

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Betting Lessons Learned from the Hardwood

How could you not come away impressed with how Memphis completely bottled up Gonzaga’s offense. The Bulldogs had no good looks, never got close to an offensive rhythm. The difference in quickness resembled college vs high school teams. Not putting the Tigers back in the Final Four, however this is a team on the come and oddsmakers are going to be adding points the rest of the season.

The SEC has caught a lot of grief and deservedly so. One team that has quietly emerged is the LSU Tigers. They have the conferences best record at 7-1 (6-1-1 ATS) and have bountiful experience with upperclassmen like Marcus Thornton, Tasmin Mitchell and Garrett Temple who were all on the team that went to the Final Four. With the SEC down and the Tigers losing by 30 at Utah and recently by 10 at home to Xavier, this is hardly an elite team, but they still have time to come together and be a force in March and should keep covering conference spreads.

While talking SEC, with Alabama’s loss at LSU, this makes it 17 consecutive road defeats for the Crimson Tide in conference play. (6-11 ATS)

Notre Dame’s performance (or lack there of) looked like the Irish football team when it flew West the last several years to face USC. No determination, no desire. Losing seven games in a row with do that after you have been in the Top 10. Luke Harangody is a great college player, yet obviously, not a locker room lawyer who shake up his teammates. No fight left in the Irish, being strictly play against.

Arizona State has won four Pac-10 road games in a row (4-0 ATS) for the first time in 28 years. True.

Two of the best teams in the Atlantic 10 were upset this past weekend. Xavier and Dayton both could have been looking ahead to this Wednesday’s matchup and got clipped in unusual fashion. The Musketeers were beaten because DuQuesne shot a blistering 81 percent in the first half and lost by four as five-point favorites. The next day, Dayton was in position to be tied for first place in the A-10 and they never came out of the locker room at halftime, outscored by Charlotte 46-29, who won for just the second time in league play.

Florida State is 18-5 (11-5-1 ATS) and four of their losses have come against North Carolina, Duke, Miami-Fl. and Pittsburgh. The Seminoles are the tallest team in the country and wore down Clemson at there place, closing the contest on 23-4 run to pull the upset. This is a dangerous underdog.

If anyone finds the Texas, Syracuse and Georgetown teams from early January, please make sure to call respective coaches, each is wondering where they disappeared to.

In the NBA, arguably the most impressive performance all season was the Los Angeles Lakers sweeping Boston and Cleveland on the road. They did so without Andrew Bynum and pedestrian to sub-par efforts from a somewhat ill Kobe Bryant. The Lakers demonstrated mental toughness not normally associated with this club.

You can’t help but feel for the Minnesota losing Al Harrington, back to being a doormat after 10-4 and 9-4-1 ATS January.

Did the Clippers really win back-to-back road games by a total of 45 points or was I just punch drunk from going a few a rounds with Chris Brown? That is the first time the Clips have won two road games consecutively since Nov. 6-7, 2007.

Monday's Best Bets + Rant

Good way to close the week with a 2-1 Sunday. Today’s all-around sports window is a little light and no conventional systems are noteworthy. I’ll step out a bit, thanks to our friends at StatFox and present a 80 percent system in college basketball, focusing just on the first half of the game, which has scintillating results this season. The Top Trend comes from the NBA and looks after how the Sixers play at home this month. Good Luck.

I’d like your opinion on something I noticed that started a couple of years ago in college basketball and is common place today. A few years ago, the coaches thru the NCAA rules committee changed the timeout status to include a grand total of six timeouts per team plus media timeouts. (There are specific rules in place for when a coach calls a 75-second timeout as opposed to 30-second, which eliminates media timeout. Yes, it is confusing) With all these timeouts the flow of the game is interrupted on a continual basis and virtually every coach will call a time out at the first hint the opposing team will go off on 6-0 run.

This really makes the game choppier and is another example of young people being coddled. Ben Howland of UCLA was the first coach I really noticed calling several timeouts in the first half of a game. Though I agree in principle with the idea you can’t necessarily win the game in the first half, but you can certainly lose it, the players need to learn to fight through a bit of adversity to become better players and team, instead of the coach calling time out at the first sign of trouble.
Besides the flow, these coaches who are paid to win, will often now overuse timeouts to stay in games and will have just one or two once the under four minute media timeout is taken.

Wouldn’t it be more beneficial to have three or possibly four timeouts in the final minutes, when the game is really on the line? The coaches are so consumed with getting to winning time; they waste a valuable commodity when they need it the most.

Consider a tight ball game could have a tie-score with a minute to go and had been close throughout. Because of the nature of basketball, runs occur and each team might have had a lead by seven points as some juncture, yet the head coach needlessly had so little faith in his players to fight thru a dull period, he kept calling timeouts and now with the game in the balance, he’s got one T.O. left.

Do you agree, disagree or could care less. Chime in.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON road underdogs like Kansas, vs. the first half line (Kansas +2 presumably), off three straight wins against conference rivals, against opponent off two or more consecutive road wins. The record on this unique system is 44-11 ATS and white hot at 7-0 this season.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Philadelphia 76ers are 10-0 ATS in home games in February games over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) With nobody I would describe as hot in wagering at the moment, three Left Coast Connection consensus plays. The Missouri Tigers at 75 percent and the Calgary Flames and Charlotte Bobcats at 100 percent. (The latter two each had five bettors)

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ESPN's Rivalry Week Starts with Bettors Paradise

The worldwide leader in sports is big on marketing themes and starts with a doozy pair of college hoops games Monday night. The first game of Rivalry Week is the Backyard Brawl, between West Virginia and Pittsburgh, followed immediately by the Border War in the Midwest, which has Kansas and Missouri doing battle. No matter the stakes or reputations, the intensity is always electric and they will be heightened with national cable television appearances and frenzied crowds. College basketball bettors can test their skills and watch the outcome of two heated confrontations.

West Virginia at Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh (21-2, 11-6 ATS) easily handled West Virginia 79-67 as a “pick” in part one of this year’s Backyard Brawl and they are solid eight-point favorites at Bookmaker.com to finish the Mountaineers off again at home. The key was their ability to work the offense inside-out, using the frontcourt, with Sam Young scoring inside and making outside shots to keep West Virginia off balance. The Panthers big men stayed at home in the paint, instead of wandering outside, and it paid off. DeJuan Blair has been a beast of late, scoring 24.3 points and ripping down 14.7 rebounds in last three contests. This is Panthers basketball and it is this type action that has them playing so well, with 8-1 ATS record in home games after two straight games giving up nine or less offensive rebounds.

With the arrival of February, one thing is apparent; West Virginia (16-7, 9-11 ATS) is part of a group of Big East teams that is good, but not elite. They can pull upsets when they outwork opponents, however when the game is tight or they trail, the ‘Teers don’t have answers.

“As of right now we are ninth in our league and that’s not good enough,” Mountaineers coach Bob Huggins told the school’s official athletic Web site. “We have got to win some games here and make a move here in the second half of the conference schedule.”

This West Virginia club isn’t built to play in high scoring affairs as 2-8 ATS mark versus offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a game this season shows. "We're just not scoring the ball," said guard Alex Ruoff, trying to explain where the deficiencies are. "We don't have that guy to take over the game the way Joe [Alexander] did last year."

The Mountaineers have to take the momentum of wasting Providence 86-59 and use it to their advantage like in the past; with an 11-2 ATS record off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last three seasons. Nevertheless, West Virginia is 1-7 and 3-4-1 ATS at Pittsburgh since 1997.

Kansas at Missouri

When it comes to rivalries, this Big 12 battle does not receive nearly enough publicity. The fans of Kansas and Missouri truly do hate each other and the players brought in from other areas of the country quickly learn what the “Border War” means. Despite losing all five starters from its national championship team, Kansas coach Bill Self has nicely cultivated a fresh crop of ambitious youngsters.

The Jayhawks (19-4, 12-6 ATS) are playing with the same steely determination and JC transfer Mario Little has gotten healthy, adding depth to Kansas. As expected, the Jayhawks are playing remarkable defense, holding opponents to 38.2 percent shooting and are 4-1 ATS against teams averaging 84 or more points a game.

The Jayhawks are off to their best start in the Big 12 in four years (8-0 and 7-1 ATS) and are playing game four of five, out of seven on the road. Kansas is 15-6 ATS after seven or more consecutive wins and 6-0 ATS versus teams outscoring opponents by four or points per game after 15 had been played on the season.

Missouri (20-4, 10-7 ATS) is improving under coach Mike Anderson and they have reestablished home court advantage at Mizzou Arena, where they are 14-0 and 5-2 ATS scoring over 90 points per game. Defensive pressure is a constant in Anderson’s system and he wants to keep adding pieces to the Tigers assortment of different techniques for turning up pressure. Opposing teams convert less than 38 percent of attempts in Columbia and Missouri is 15-5 ATS in home games vs. top caliber foes outscoring their opponents by 12 or points a contest, past the mid-point of the season.

The Tigers were a popular play against team Saturday at Iowa State, but showed newfound mental toughness in 82-68 win as nine-point chalk, behind DeMarre Carroll career-high 31 points. Missouri reached the 20-win mark for the first time in six years.

Coach Anderson knows Kansas is a smart team that can find open shots even against the Tigers press. Mizzou will have to get the ball out of Sherrod Collins hands and force others to make plays. Missouri is a 4.5-point favorite and is 7-3-1 ATS at home against KU.

Bounce Back Sunday at 3Daily Winners

The one bright spot was from our Midwest contact, who was on the nose about UW-Milwaukee, thanks friend. He helped what was otherwise a pretty dismal day at 1-3. I have to admit, I was shocked yesterday’s system wasn’t close and I took a good jolt to the wagering account on otherwise what was a decent day.

Paul Buck returns after going thru one of the worst losing periods in the NBA of his wagering life and is warming back up and has Lakers/Cavs Free play. The Top Trend doesn’t involve an A-List team, yet who wants to argue with 100 percent. Have a make sense system play in college hoops that is 81.1 percent. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST a road team like Boston College, revenging a home loss vs opponent (Wake Forest in this case) off two or more consecutive upset losses as a road favorite. Since 1997, this system is 30-7 ATS. 81.1 percent and is 2-0 this year.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Canisius is 0-8 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pick over the last three seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) After a terrible spell, Paul is back, having hit seven of last nine NBA games and he on Cleveland at -4.5 today.

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