Memphis and Pac-10 in Focus for Bettor's Tonight

The thought of Arizona State and Washington playing for first place in the Pac-10 with less than two weeks to go in the regular season is as preposterous as Rush Limbaugh liking something the Democrats do. While that will never happen, the Sun Devils and Huskies have a key contest in Seattle that will weigh heavily on the outcome of Pac-10 title. Memphis’ string of C-USA wins only seems like the Harlem Globetrotters winning streak, and they hope not to have water thrown on them by Alabama-Birmingham, who will be trying to end the streak.

Memphis at UAB

Over the last several seasons, Memphis basketball has been known for ultra-talented athletes that can run and score points in bunches. This year’s team may lack the primordial skills of coach John Calipari’s previous teams, yet this squad is proving to be every bit a challenge to beat as his other clubs. The Tigers (24-3, 16-9-1 ATS) are holding opponents to under 38 percent shooting and have held nine different teams to 52 or fewer points this season, in spite of uptempo style. Memphis is 20-10 ATS after nine or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons (7-2 this year). The Tigers stupefying 54-game C-USA winning streak could again be tested at a place where they almost succumbed last year.

UAB (19-8, 12-13-1 ATS) is a dangerous team; they don’t make many mistakes and have known quantities that make winning plays. Robert Vaden has an all-round game, Paul Delaney III is among the conference leaders in shooting percentage from the guard spot and Lawrence Kinnard has been in the top three in C-USA all season in rebounding. The Blazers are 12-0 at home (6-5 ATS) and will want to finish what they started last year, blowing a late lead to lose to Memphis 79-78.

Bookmaker.com has Memphis as 4.5-point favorites and they are 7-1 ATS versus teams with winning records. UAB has lost six straight (1-4-1 ATS) to Memphis, however the home team 6-1 ATS in last seven meetings.

ESPN will have this C-USA conflict at 9 Eastern.

Arizona State at Washington

If the Sun Devils are in an important contest late in the season, most fans and alumni would assume it is baseball game. But coach Herb Sendik grew tired of being unappreciated in the ACC by his former employer and instead has taken over a sleepy basketball program that couldn’t draw many more than 200 students to come watch a game unless their rival Arizona was on the other bench. That has all changed with Arizona State (21-5, 14-8 ATS) nationally ranked and bidding for a Pac-10 title.

Since joining the conference 30 years ago, the Sun Devils have seldom contended for league honors, let alone win a Pac-10 basketball title. Yet seldom have they had a player of sophomore James Harden’s ability. The team is a classic Sendik assembly job, not appearing to work cohesively until they hit the floor. ASU is 7-2-1 ATS facing teams with winning home records.

Washington (20-7, 16-8-1 ATS) is just as unlikely to be in first place this late in the season with a chance to be outright Pac-10 champs. The Huskies were co-champs a couple of times in the mid-1980’s, otherwise the only basketball regular season championship was during the Eisenhower administration (1953), when the league was known as the Pacific Coast Conference.

Senior leadership or experienced upperclassmen is often why ordinary teams exceed expectations and Washington has a pair of hard to beat in bruising Jon Brockman and guard Justin Dentmon. These two warriors have been through it all in Seattle and are relishing their senior seasons with the help of a youngster, freshman Isaiah Thomas who added the extra dimension. The Huskies are 14-1 and 9-4 at home and will have raucous crowd at the venerable B.O.A. Arena, the old Hec Edmonson Pavilion.

Washington is 11-4 in the Pac-10 and is two-point favorite over Arizona State, who is 10-4 in conference and 6-2 SU and ATS in true road games. The Huskies won the earlier meeting in Tempe 84-71 as six point road dogs.

FSN has the tip at 8 Pacific, with the road team 6-1 against the spread.

Trying to get over the hump on Hump Day

Got hammered yesterday as Orlando has stopped playing defense, New Mexico missed covering by a point and San Diego State didn’t utilize home court to their advantage. We’ll try and change our luck with a prefect Trend that is 11-0 since 1997 for a Missouri Valley team. Also, from the way back machine, found a system that is 78.2 percent (non-qualifying) from the year when Suddenly Susan was the No.3 rated TV show. (1996) Good Luck.

Had a good laugh about the Northern Trust bank using millions of dollars to host and throw parties in Los Angeles area for L.A. Open despite receiving bailout money from the government that is essentially yours and mine. Granted, they had already committed to hosting golf tournament, but just maybe pull back on all the festivities, I think people would understand. What was really humorous was they said no money was used from the bailout cash they received. Maybe somebody should look and see how much cash there is in reserve for entertainment division.

Free Basketball System-1) Play Against underdogs like Portland, off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60 to 75 percentage). Dating all the way back to 1996, this system is 36-10 ATS. (Thanks, StatFox)

Free Basketball Trend -2) Evansville is 11-0 ATS after scoring 75 points or more three straight games since 1997.

Free Basketball Selection -3) This is hard to believe, but 10 bettors from the LCC are on Marquette and not one on UConn.

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Making Sense of Numbers in Revenge Games

With less then two weeks remaining in the regular reason for college basketball, nearly every game has a revenge twist to it. Some of the bigger conferences will not have every game playing into pay back contests, with the unruly nature of trying to play most every team once, with leagues of more than 12 universities. In fact, the Mid-American Conference to date has not had a single return match this season.

In looking for an edge in gambling on college basketball, trying to comprehend what certain numbers mean from the oddsmakers is important. For example, if two teams in the same conference are evenly matched, the standard deviation should have the home team favored by four to five points, depending on the league and what a typical home court advantage would be. This would mean any normal return game should have a swing of eight to 10 points. When this doesn’t occur, what does this mean?

If a team was favored by 10 points playing at home and is now favored by eight on the road (instead of about two), how should this information be interpreted? Was the favorite undervalued to start with or has the other team gotten worse and needs more points from those setting the line to make a more even contest from wagering point of view?

For this and other answers, went thru every conference that keeps track of point spreads and limited all revenge situations to in-conference only. (Random tournaments and scheduled games did pop up) Stayed with the standard deviation of 8-10 points, also added revenge games where the spread was 7.5 or less or 10.5 or greater.

The specific question was -how do teams perform in following meeting after having beaten their opponent, be it home or away, against the spread? Ended up studying the results of 21 conferences and this is what was found thru Feb. 23.

Starting with the normal turnaround numbers of 8-10 points, the first time winner was not very successful in posting 91-104 ATS record, good for 46.6 percent mark. This is not entirely surprising given the fact the numbers fell within conventional parameters. If the two schools are somewhat comparable, then it would stand to reason the more motivated previous loser would play better. Certain conference contributed more to the losing than others as you can see.

Big 12 1-6 ATS
Horizon 3-7 ATS
Ivy 1-5 ATS
Sun Belt 4-8 ATS
WAC 2-5 ATS
West Coast 1-4-1 ATS

Each of the other two categories essentially generated the same meanings, depending on how you interpret the numbers; however the volume of games was dramatically different.

The spread differential of 7.5 or less points yielded 189 games almost as many as what was perceived as average point spread differences. (195) In this case, the results again favored the team in revenge, even to a greater degree. The revenge-minded club was 104-85 ATS, 55 percent. Why this number could be higher, is the results of the initial contest might not have accurately reflected the strengths or weakness of the two teams and enough has changed since prior encounter to limit the amount of movement in the spread.

Here we find sharp figures pointing pronounced results in particular conferences, with teams looking a for season split very profitable.

Big Ten 7-3 ATS
Big West 8-1 ATS
Colonial 6-1 ATS

Nevertheless, the numbers are balanced out is some method and other leagues saw the previous winning team covering the spread in next contest.

Ohio Valley 11-7-1 ATS
Pac-10 8-5 ATS
WAC 2-0 ATS

Spread differentials that were greater than 10 points were less than half, with a total of 89 recognized plays. The results were remarkably similar to the other groups, with the revenger 48-41 ATS, 54 percent.

In this part of the study, two conferences stood out for different reasons. In the Colonial, the winning team looking for a cover was 0-4 ATS, while the same squad in the Pac-10 was an even better going the other way at 6-0 ATS.

For the rest of the regular season, look to certain conferences which have had a proclivity to revenge situations. Here are the best and worst records against the linemaker for teams trying to sweep league rivals and cover the number.

Colonial 9-22 ATS
Horizon 13-20 ATS
Ivy 3-8-1 ATS
MAAC 13-21-1 ATS
WAC 9-14 ATS
West Coast 6-12-1 ATS

Pac-10 19-7-1 ATS
Big Sky 16-10 ATS

Keep these numbers handy over the next several days and remember, revenge is best served with a purpose.

World Golf Championship Betting Info

If their was ever a golf event made for sports bettors to wager on, it is the WGC match play event in Marana, Ariz, about 30 minutes north of Tucson at the Ritz-Carlton GC at Dove Mountain. This brings the best 64 players together according to the world rankings and puts them in a format similar to the NCAA basketball tournament, with four brackets and every player seeded. What is different about this event is the match play format, head to head. As opposed college basketball, the number one seeds have lost in the first round. The difference between the best player in the world and No. 64 is not as great as the average person may think.

The lowest rated player might get the putter going and birdie a number of holes, putting pressure on the favorite. Or the underdog could just plod along making pars and hit a stretch and win three holes in a row, essentially winning the match. Among the intriguing aspects of betting this five day tournament, there is no M.O. of a particular type of player that separates them. Tiger Woods has the best mental makeup to win six matches, but he’s also the most talented player in the world.

Match play brings out different aspects of golfers personalities compared to stroke play and certain events can really change the course of a match. The legendary Bobby Jones lamented facing a player scraping by. "When a man misses his drive, and misses his second shot and wins the hole with a birdie, it gets my goat," Jones said.

Tiger Woods return couldn’t be any more welcome to the PGA Tour, as nobody really took over the tour in Tiger’s absence. His return means better attendance at the events he plays and increased television viewership. Woods is a +475 favorite at Bookmaker.com to win, which he has to be in theory because of who he is. However, to ask anyone who has not played a competitive round of golf since June of last year, play 90 holes of golf (give or take depending on how the matches go) just to get to the 36-hole final, well even that seems like a challenge for Mr. Woods.

Phil Mickelson and Henrik Stenson are +1500, followed by Sergio Garcia at +1600 and Anthony Kim at +2000. My personal choice is Geoff Ogilvy at +2000, who won this event in 2006 and lost to Tiger last year. Even this selection comes with trepidation, since this is the first year they are playing at the new 7,849-yard Jack Nicklaus-designed layout, after playing across the street at the Gallery. The layout has four par fives, wide fairways and rambunctious greens with more undulation and turns than the local rattlesnakes.

Here are my first round wagers for Wednesday.

Retief Goosen -120 over Tim Clark

Rory Sabbatini -150 over Miguel Angel Jimenez

Soren Hanson +130 over Ernie Els

Dustin Johnson +110 over Steve Stricker

Mathew Googin +140 over Kenny Perry

Stuart Appleby -105 over Martin Kaymer

Turnaround Tuesday at 3Daily Winners

Marty of the LCC is having a solid season betting college hoops and offers his top play after an official 1-1 day here. Today’s system is a recent repeat and is 30-7 against the spread. New Mexico has long been a great home favorite and they are in one of their best spots tonight. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON all teams like Orlando where the line is +3 to -3, scoring 102 or more points a game against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG), after a win by 10 points or more. This system was just used Sunday and actually lost as I warned it might, however the situation and the teams are completely different, lending credibility. This system is 30-7 ATS, 81.1 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The New Mexico Lobos are 13-2 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points the last two years.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Marty of the Left Coast Connection had Kansas and Louisville last night, giving him a record of 119-92, 56.3 percent in college basketball and his Best Bet is on San Diego State.

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Jockeying for Position in College Hoops

The final week to two weeks before conferences start playing their tournaments can be full of land mines. A situation to watch for are teams that have just achieved a meaningful goal or hit a milestone. Those teams can be a great “go against” in their next game as many times it is a letdown situation. A team winning its 20th game or clinching a conference title should be noted. Drake last year exceeded their goals in winning the Missouri Valley Conference title. Their next game was at home against Bradley as a 6.5-point favorite. They lost outright.

You should know if a team is locked into a certain seed or within a range of their conference standings and have really nothing to gain in their final few conference games prior to their tournament. Be careful with those squads as the coach might want to rest key players or be more concerned in preparation for the tournament than for individual games.

What teams took a tumble this past week or at least lost some of their shine? Let’s start with Davidson. Their foe, Butler, became the only real victor who gained anything in Bracket Busters weekend. The Bulldogs had just lost two games back to back in the Horizon League, one of them at home, and were looking vulnerable. Butler, a very young team, but one who plays tremendous defense with intensity handled the more experienced Davidson squad rather easily.

Stephen Curry did play for Davidson but stated he was not 100%. Davidson’s chance of securing an at-large bid was already in jeopardy as they had lost at home to The Citadel by 16 points within the week. Curry missed that game but a Tourney team should never lose to The Citadel at home, especially by double-digits.

A case could be made that St. Mary’s also got a huge up-tick in their stock beating Utah State, and covering the point spread I should add. However, with an RPI of 53 and playing in the 15th ranked West Coast Conference, it is the NIT unless they beat the #1 WCC Tournament seed, Gonzaga, in the conference tournament. If that happens, the conspiracy theorists will come out of the woodwork saying the Zags loss was orchestrated by the conference to get the extra money they earn by having an additional team in the big dance.

Going into the weekend there was talk the Mountain West could get four teams into the NCAA’s: BYU, Utah, UNLV, and San Diego State. UNLV beat BYU over the weekend but San Diego State got mauled by New Mexico on the road losing by 26 points. The Aztecs have a slightly higher RPI than the Rebels, 47th to 50th, and did beat UNLV in OT in Vegas. UNLV also suffered from losing three road games to second tier Mountain West schools. Two big games on the road for UNLV are Utah on 2/25 and San Diego State on 3/7.

The Ohio Valley Conference only accepts the top eight of its ten schools into their tournament. This coming Saturday there is a true elimination game as the two teams tied for 8th in the conference with 5-12 records meet each other in their final regular season game. Tennessee Tech travels to Jacksonville State with the winner grabbing the #8 seed for the tourney and the loser calling it a season. Tennessee Tech did lose at home to Jacksonville St. earlier this year, 82-66.

The Pac-10 is a conference that has byes going to the top 6 teams in round 1 of their tourney. The bottom four schools have to play an extra game and thus will have to be victorious in four straight games without any rest to win their tournament, an almost impossible accomplishment. The two teams with the best chance of getting the #6 seed are USC and Oregon State, which incidentally meet on their last P-10 game.

UCLA is showing some deficiencies. They dropped their Saturday home game to Washington St. and have now lost three of their past four. Believe it or not, the Bruin defense has been performing terribly allowing a defensive efficiency rating of over 116 in those past four games. Their RPI has slipped to #36 and have a game at Cal Saturday, #32, which will help determine conference tourney seeding.

In the Big 12, the first four teams get a bye. Right now, there are four squads fighting for that #4 seed: Texas, Kansas St., Oklahoma St., and Nebraska. It is always important to be aware of any added motivation a team might have in a game.

The bottom two teams don’t go to the Atlantic 10 Tournament. These should be George Washington and Fordham. Even though it appears Fordham long ago gave up on the season, 4-18 ATS, their last game of the season is at home against St. Joseph’s and it could be a spot to consider the Rams.

St. Joseph had high aspirations going into the season, some people picked them to win the A-10. They looked good winning nine of ten games after the beginning of the year but have stumbled losing four in a row. The Hawks play cross-town rival Temple the Thursday before their final scheduled game against Fordham on Saturday, 3/7. The St. Joe bench is the next to shortest in the D-1 with only 14.96% of all minutes not coming from their starters. With this being Fordham’s final game of the year and St. Joseph possibly resting players who are exhausted from a long season, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rams cover the point spread.

The Big Ten grants first-round byes to the top five finishers. The middle of the pack, Penn St., Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio St., and Michigan, are fighting for seeds 4 and 5. All five of these are also on or very close to the bubble.

Assuming Memphis wins the Conference USA Tournament, they will probably be the only league representative in the NCAA Tournament. However, if #39 RPI UAB beats Memphis at home this Thursday and runs the table, they would probably make it the final cut. The Blazers looked impressive humiliating Southern Miss by 30 points Saturday.

Teams like to feel as if they have “locked in” an invitation to the big dance before going to their conference post-season play. They don’t want to be in a position where they possibly have to win the tournament, or at minimum are required to have a very good showing, to make it to the NCAA Tourney.

Kentucky is sitting on the fence with a convincing win over Tennessee this past Saturday that they sorely needed. Their final four regular season games will make or break them as they still face South Carolina, LSU, and Florida. Only LSU of those teams is probably a lock for the NCAA so they should be hotly contested battles. Inconsistency, a #61 RPI, and an opening game loss to the Big South’s VMI are hurting the Wildcats.

Like other 12-team leagues, the ACC’s top four teams get a bye while the other 8 play. Wake Forest is fighting to overtake the current #4 team, Florida State. One team you can count out for an at-large berth is Virginia Tech. Not only have the Hokies lost 5 of their last 7, but their remaining four games are with Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, and Florida State.

A couple of RPI oddities are out there. Siena could be this year’s version of the 2006 Missouri State program that finished with a #21 RPI but didn’t get an at-large bid. The Saints played a tough schedule and are 5-0 against teams ranked 51-100. However, they have two losses to 101-200 schools.

If anybody has the time, could you please explain to me how Utah has managed to be the #11 RPI rated team? They lost to Southwest Baptist, a non-Division 1 team, and the #186 team, Idaho State. They are 0-1 versus 1-25 teams and 4-4 against 51-100 squads.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority wrote article.

Question and Your Comment

What basketball teams in college or pro have you been dialed in on or what teams cause you to lose sleep at night, were you just never win?

Looking to Start a Winning Streak

Not being able to get any winners out of free plays, which are costing us winning days. I’m not surprised at all the system lost yesterday (which I warned about), however I would be today. This will not be official system play since it is below 80 percent. Have another Top Trend that is perfect and looks at tonight’s Big 12 battle. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home teams like the Clippers, after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games, against opponent after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game. This situational system is 30-8 ATS, 78.9 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Kansas Jayhawks are 10-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Paul Buck is 6-1 in last seven NBA plays and is on Philadelphia to end two game losing streak to New Jersey.

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Cashing in on the Louisville Money-Making Express

Coach Rick Pitino is a truly unique individual, he gets life. Not just in the basketball sense, but on broader subjects. Of course he wrote the obligatory basketball book - Full-court Pressure: A Year in Kentucky Basketball, when he was at Lexington, on his way to winning national championship. However, his scope is much larger, with books like – Success is a Choice and Lead to Success, telling stories how to overachieve and be a great leader in business and in life. Though no known new book is forthcoming, the title would be easy to identify for astute followers of Pitino at Louisville - Finding Success Betting the Big East.

In what arguably has been the toughest conference in college basketball over the last three years, Coach Pitino’s team’s are 38-10 the last three years in the regular season in the conference and an astonishing 36-11-1 against the spread. That is +23.9 units of profit playing some of the fiercest competition any team can face.

The Cardinals (21-5, 16-10 ATS) are one of four teams with a pair of losses in the Big East, still with hopes of trying to win the league regular season title. Louisville has won and covered three in a row since running into the Notre Dame buzz saw on the road. Louisville responded with home wins over DePaul and Providence by a combined 63 points and overcame a good Cincinnati team on there home court 72-63, as 5.5-point favorites, which even impressed the coach.

“I think our passing has gotten better,” Pitino said. “We made some excellent passes. We executed great against their full-court pressure. We just played a terrific game.”

Louisville will play a second straight conference road game at ghastly Georgetown (14-11, 7-13-1 ATS). The Cardinals make every sports bettor giddy, with their 22-4 ATS road record since 2007. Part of the Cards success has come in the second month of the year, where they are 17-4 against the oddsmakers number. With Pitino’s books being about learning to build success the right way, his teams the last three years are 15-4 ATS off a road win.

Coach John Thompson III might have gone to Amazon.com and picked up enough copies of Pitino’s books and handed them out to his players once the new year arrived. Georgetown was supposed to be run of the mill in conference, but after knocking then No.1 Connecticut at there place to raise record to 10-1, hopes of Hoyas uprising were taking place. Similar to the euphoria of President Barack Obama taking up residence in nearly Washington, D.C., reality set in and problems arose.

If any team has a weaknesses, conference opponents will be the ones to expose them and Georgetown ended up with a Pandora’s boxful. The Hoyas have lost eight of 10 (1-8-1 ATS) and are 4-10 and 2-11-1 ATS since hitting 2009. When asked if he thought this was a difficult season, Thompson offered these thoughts.

“Period. Not just at Georgetown,” Thompson said. “But we’ll get through this. Yeah, it’s trying. But we’re going to do what we do. We’re going to try to get better from the top on down.” The Hoyas are 5-9 and 3-11 ATS in the Big East.

Despite the problems, oddsmakers haven’t written off Georgetown, as they opened as a one-point underdog with a total of 130 at many sportsbooks. When checking different angles, it’s not easy to support G-Town, since they are 0-8 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3. The Cardinals would look to be in a more favorable position with 13-2 ATS mark as road favorite or pick and 8-1 ATS if the number is six or less.

Angles, trends and book sales don’t win games, players and coaches do. ESPN will have the next story unfold for both teams at 7 Eastern on Big Monday, with likely many bettors waiting for Pitino’s club to add another winning chapter.

Three Weeks until Selection Sunday

It was a tough way to lose, getting back-doored, as Siena led by 12 or points for 33 minutes against Northern Iowa, only to have the number fall below in the last minute and fail to cover for 1-2 day. We have a Free Play in the Big East going today. Michigan State is in a perfect situation in Big Ten action after being blown out. Hardly any good systems in play for Sunday and I would be cautious with this one also, because of the uncertainty of the rosters and the huge line move made by those wagering. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON all teams like Phoenix where the line is +3 to -3, scoring 102 or more points a game, against a good offensive team averaging 98-102 PPG (like Boston), after a win by 10 points or more. This system is 30-6 ATS, 83.3 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Michigan State is 8-0 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) One member of the LCC who focuses primarily on short numbers in basketball (four or less) is playing Syracuse today.

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Bracket Buster Saturday

I was disappointed didn’t come right back with winners yesterday, thus have to turn to today. This is one of the days I really look forward to watching all the Bracket Buster games and get a good feel for all the teams you can see.

The Kansas Jayhawks are in an outstanding situation for today’s Top Trend. The best early afternoon system is in the Big East and is 23-5 ATS. The official Free Play is posted with other news also. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON a favorite like Georgetown, after beating the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, being a marginal winning team (51 to 60 percent) playing a winning team. This system is 23-5 ATS, 82.1 percent the last five years.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Kansas Jayhawks are 9-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection top consensus play is Siena. Interestingly, Texas was picked by 75 percent of those wagering this contest.

Winning Bracket Buster info and Top Tilts

In this era of corporate greed being exposed, government self-interests more important than the people who elected these same officials, it’s good to see the average Joe being able to stand up and be heard. In college basketball, the Bracket Buster has become an annual event, where the so-called mid-major schools go head-to-head across the country, being able to compare themselves against a variety of different conferences.

For the serious college basketball and sports bettor, this is an important weekend, being able to visibly see a number of teams they would not view otherwise and make key determinations on a variety of these clubs for the end of the season, conference tournaments and those invited to post-season activities.

This can be a little like interleague baseball, where bettors are thrown off normal routines. In an effort to make this situation more palatable, here is key wagering information over the last three years to consider.

The first aspect that smacks you in the face is road teams are 90-53-4 ATS, 62.9 percent. In trying to explain why this would happen, it has to do with team and conference pride. This is a big moment for the visitor, going into hostile territory. The home team or the crowd doesn’t know what to make of this opponent and can be caught off-guard. This has been particularly true if the oddsmakers are expecting tight contest, with the road teams 23-11 SU & 25-9 ATS (73.5 percent), when the line is +3 to -3.

Certain conferences have shown extreme results that should be followed. The Missouri Valley Conference teams have hosted a number of these matchups. Though, The Valley is highly thought of, they are just 9-8 SU and 4-12-1 ATS at home, including hideous 0-8-1 spread run in last nine games.

A few of those encounters have come against the Colonial Athletic Association, who is 8-7 in Bracket Buster roadies, with sparkling 10-5 ATS mark.

The MAC over the years has done well in the Big Dance and has unexpected results in this event. The MAC is .500 in 32 tilts over three seasons, but is 7-11 ATS at home and 8-5 against the spread on the road, matching the aforementioned profile.

The Big West Conference receives little if any acclaim, since UNLV moved on years ago. They are often fodder for larger schools in non-conference, yet have held their own against teams of their ilk. The Big West is 12-12 SU, with 13-10-1 ATS record and watch for these squads as favorites, boasting 7-3-1 ATS mark.

The MAAC teams are having another spirited campaign. This league ends up playing primarily road games for this competition and they are 9-6 ATS, with six victories.

Make certain to scout out double digit road underdogs. They may be 2-18, but they are 12-7-1 against the spread.

Here is a look at the key televised Bracket Buster contests.

Butler at Davidson 12:00ET, ESPN

The gem of the Bracket Buster is this matchup, two teams all but certain to be in the field of 65 teams in mid-March; however they have made situation more tenuous with recent play. Over the last two seasons, Butler (22-4, 15-9 ATS) has won a staggering 26 games away from home. The Bulldogs do this by playing outstanding defense, limiting both made baskets and quality shots and offense is not afraid to run down the shot clock to earn a better look at the rim. Since Butler became an elite mid-major, the types of players have gotten noticeably more athletic, providing even greater versatility. However they have dropped two in row Horizon League play, which will not help their cause. The Bulldogs are 12-4 ATS playing against a team with a winning record this season.

With Davidson (22-5, 12-12-1 ATS) losing to the College of Charleston and the Citadel at home, this meeting suddenly takes on greater importance. The earlier losses on the road to ranked teams didn’t hurt the Wildcats value, but this pair of defeats certainly does. Stephen Curry missed the last game with a sprained ankle and will be game time decision. Beating a team like Butler, who has been ranked for sometime, helps restore faith among those that matter. Look for Davidson to want to set the tempo and they are 17-6 ATS versus teams outscoring opponents by eight or more points a game after 15 contests have been played.

Davidson is 11-3 ATS in last 14 non-conference games and could use a win to stem the negative tide.

Buffalo at Vermont 1:00ET, ESPN2

Buffalo U. is going for the rare double, being MAC football and basketball champions in the same year. The Bulls (17-7, 12-11 ATS) are off to their best start in league play since joining the conference in 1998. Guard Rodney Pierce is candidate for MAC Player of the Year and forward Calvin Betts is worthy of all-MAC mention, but they key has been moving Greg Gamble to the point guard spot to bring everything together. Buffalo has lost last two contests and is only 1-5 ATS since late January. The shocking home loss to Bowling Green was unexpected and they are 7-1 ATS off a loss by 10 or more points.

Vermont (21-7) is again in the thick of the America East race and a dangerous team. The Catamounts average better than 77 points a game, with quality scorers like forward Marcus Blakely, who numerous double-double’s and point guard Mike Trimboli is doubled-edged threat as scorer and passer. Few of Vermont’s games have lines, however this will and they are 11-3 at home.

Northern Iowa at Siena 3:00 ET, ESPN2

Two leaders of their respective conferences will share the afternoon spotlight. Northern Iowa (18-9, 11-12 ATS) has been the best team in the Missouri Valley, before falling twice this past week. The Panthers are battled tested, with 11 of their games being decided by six points or fewer. UNI is not reliant on any one player, preferring a mix of players to add up to winning formula. Whether it is Ali Farokhmanesch dropping three-points or Adam Koch and Jordan Eglelander controlling the paint, this is club with more than one answer. Look for the Panthers to be up to the challenge with 7-4 and 6-5 ATS road record.

Coming into this week, Siena (21-6, 11-14 ATS) had the second highest RPI ranking (29) of any Bracket Buster team. The Saints have won the MAAC thanks to the efforts of Kenny Hasbrouck and swingman Edwin Ubiles. Siena brought back all five starters and averages better than 77 points per game, yet are not ambitious defenders, with opponents converting 43.6 percent from the field. Teams like Northern Iowa can bother the Saints, since they are 5-13 ATS in home games versus teams making 45 percent or more of their shots.

Northern Iowa could be in dubious spot with recent 1-10 ATS non-conference record and going against Siena who is 13-5 ATS if opponent has better than 60 percent win percentage.

Utah State at St. Mary’s 5:00ET, ESPN2

Utah State (25-2, 13-8 ATS) is having their way with the Western Athletic Conference, holding a substantial lead and will test the waters of the West Coast Conference. The Aggies are doing what they always do, just better this season. Utah State under coach Stew Morrill is again one of the best shooting teams in the country and plays tenacious defense. Utah State is the only team in the nation to win at least 23 games in each of the past 10 seasons and was recently featured in an article in the USA Today. The Aggies brilliant campaign has been spear-headed by junior college transfer Jared Quayle. Utah State is 10-1 and 7-2 ATS in road games.

It hasn’t been a happy time for St. Mary’s since losing guard Patty Mills to broken hand. His ability as scorer and playmaker has left the Gaels (21-5, 14-8 ATS) with a massive void having lost four of seven. His departure has eroded the confidence of the team and players like Diamon Simpson have not stepped in to fill scoring gap. Center Omar Samhan is a good player, but he needs someone to feed him the ball in the post to be effective. St. Mary’s covers roughly one-third of their games against teams that have 42 or lower field goal percentage defense.

St. Mary’s is still hopeful Mills will return before the end of season and a win over a Top 25 team, without him would bolster the confidence of those choosing the field of 65. It will take a supreme effort by the Gaels with Utah State 10-3 ATS in non-conference action.

George Mason at Creighton 9:30ET, ESPNU

Creighton (22-6, 15-9 ATS) has steadily improved since a slow start in Missouri Valley action, winning seven straight encounters (5-2 ATS), to move into first place tie with Northern Iowa, which is no surprise with coach Dana Altman at the helm. Altman recently registered his 300th Valley victory and typically focused the attention on his team, instead of himself. As hobbling players like guard Booker Woodfox are returning to health and Justin Carter, Kenny Lawson and Kenton Walker continue to improve, this might be the best team in the conference by the time the post-season tourney arrives. The Blue Jays are 13-2, but just 5-6 ATS in Omaha.

George Mason (18-8, 14-6-1 ATS) could be the best team in the Colonial, if they could win on the road. The Patriots have suffered five road losses by a total of 18 points. The fault lies with the defense, which allows 10.1 more points per game on the road than at the Patriot Center. In this contest, watch the backcourt of John Vaughn and Dre Smith both can fill up the basket in a hurry. Louis Birdsong is George Mason’s best inside defender. The Patriots are 9-1 ATS versus good ball handling teams committing 14 or fewer turnovers a game this season.

George Mason is the underdog, nonetheless is 8-2 ATS against teams with winning records.

What a Difference a Day can make Betting Hoops

There are a multitude of different angles, trends, and tendencies that can help a person pick winners in college basketball. Some of them are well known and some are only known by a few people. Some are obvious and there are some that are obscure.

Some, such as the trend to play on an unranked home team if they are playing a ranked team and the home team is favored, become almost urban legend. Often these types of trends will have a supposed unbelievable gaudy record attached to them. Like many trends, they might work for a while until enough people have found out about them and drive the line too far in one direction and subsequently the trend starts losing. Also, the linesmakers might discover the trend, after all, that is their job, and help end its profitability. They do this by adjusting the line enough against the trend that it can go from a winning angle to one that burns sports bettors’ money.

I don’t know how many sports bettors realize there are different tendencies in college hoops for certain days of the week. What results teams have in certain situations on Saturdays might be totally different than the same situation has on Wednesdays. Thursday games might have an opposite pattern to Sunday games.

Why do we see such contrasts in ATS and O/U results on different days of the week? There are a number of potential reasons. Very rarely is a game during the week, Monday through Friday, played during the day. Almost 100% of these games, unless on a holiday, take place at night.
A good portion of the games on Saturdays and Sundays are during the day. Teams can play differently during the day as compared to in the evening.Weekday games at many venues won’t draw the same size of crowd as weekend games. The students at a Tuesday night game will probably be more subdued with classes and tests the next day than they would on a Saturday. Alumni attendance might very well be down and the alums more reserved with a full day of work looming ahead. Home-court crowds with their noise and fervor do influence teams, both home and visitors.

Most conferences play a basic schedule during league play with variations thrown in, many times for television games. There are two main basic schedules, the Thursday-Saturday and the Wednesday-Saturday formats. The obvious difference is the extra day of rest the Wednesday-Saturday schedule provides.

With games being played on Thursday night, Friday in most all cases becomes a travel day. Depending upon the length and mode of travel, any practice or preparation time for their Saturday opponent can be greatly reduced. This is compounded even more so if the Saturday game is being played during the day. There are many significant differences in a team’s results playing on Saturday as to whether the team is off of a Thursday game or one with more rest, such as a Tuesday or Wednesday clash.

Conferences that are on the Thursday-Saturday type of schedule are the Big Sky, Big West, Horizon, Ohio Valley Conference, Pac-10, Sun Belt, Southern, WAC, and West Coast Conference. Everybody else is on the Wednesday-Saturday timetable with a couple of exceptions. The Ivy League is the most unique playing their conference games on Fridays and Saturdays. The Metro Atlantic’s base is a Friday-Sunday agenda, but has variations just like most all conferences. All trends cited start with the 2000 season and only pertain to games between two teams of the same conference.If you just look at the most basic results of Saturday games, about the only thing worth noting is big home favorites of 14 or more points don’t do well, 336-404, 45.4%, and big road dogs obviously do. This is not a situation you want to bet blindly, but it is enough of an edge to be aware of before you place a wager. There was not even a trend that good for the basic results with no additional qualifiers of games being played on Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday.

However starting with Monday, there are some situations worth talking about. In conference play, if a team had a game on Saturday and is now playing two days later on Monday, there is a strong overall bias to the Under, 518-400, 56.4%. The Under is strongest if our team is a road favorite going 78-51, 60.5%. There is a sweet spot if the away team is favored by 3 to 6.5 points, 40-17 Under, 70.2%. Wagering on the Under on away dogs getting up to 6.5 points also does quite well, 97-61, 61.4%.

There is only one side play on Monday teams playing with just one day of rest that is worth noting and it is just a small slice. Home dogs of 3 to 6.5 points have only been covering the point spread 41.7% of the time since the 2000 season.Now let’s look at games played on Monday by a team with more than one day of rest. While home favorites with just one day of rest covered the point spread 49.2% of the time, our better-rested home squads laying points are beating the number just 37.9% of the time. That is a huge differential. We no longer have an overall Under bias, in our previous Monday example, 56.4%, now just 50.5%. Road favorites now actually have a small lean to the Over, 50.9%, as compared to a 60.5% Under trend.

Our Monday, teams with more rest are doing well as single-digit road dogs cashing tickets at a 58.3% rate versus a 51.4% clip for teams who played Saturday. The amount of rest a team has when playing on Monday definitely makes a difference.

How about if we add a qualifier into this Monday game mix. What if our team is off of a road win? Will the additional rest give us a contrast in results? It shows a huge difference between home favorites of the teams with extra rest versus the ones with just one day, a 32.3% ATS mark compared to a 56.5% record respectively. The team with extra time to think about their road win and be congratulated by their fans and media does much more poorly than the squad who has a very quick turnaround playing their next game.

Incidentally, those Monday home faves off of a Saturday road win are an excellent Under wager, 66.2% winners. The sweet spot here is from pick’em to less than a seven point chalk, an amazing 25-4 Under mark. With such interesting differences in teams playing on Monday off of a road win, let’s see what the same situation in Saturday games provides.

A great play against spot is when a team wins a road game on Thursday and is now put in the position of a home favorite on Saturday, 45-77 ATS, 36.9%. A fantastic optimum wagering spot is if the home team is favored by 10 to 20 points, a pitiful 24.4% record of covering the spread. As compared to home favorites on Monday off a road win with a quick turnaround, we get the opposite results if the game happens to be played on a Saturday.

Now looking at a team that has more than one day of rest playing on a Saturday and their previous game was a road win, there is nothing of ATS significance as a home favorite, almost an exact 50% rate. However, if they are a single-digit home fave they have been going Over the lined total 55.3% of the time.

There is a 56.0% ATS edge if our rested team playing on Saturday off of a road win is still on the road and is favored. If this team is an Away dog, there is a sweet spot of 58.2% ATS if they are getting 3 to 10 points.

Games played on the same day of the week can show widely different results depending upon how much rest a team has and the results and location of their previous game.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority wrote this article.

Fingers Crossed by Bounce Back Friday

No sugar-coating it, we were waylaid yesterday with 0-3 record. Can’t change it or do much about it other than coming back today with winners. Actually have two tremendous systems in the NBA. Both are at 85.7 percent and Oklahoma City is the play on team, but with the line moving against the Thunder, due to Phoenix tough luck situation, the value is evaporating swiftly. The Knickerbockers are in sensational Top Trend look at home and new individual from the LCC has today’s Free Play. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON all teams like the Denver Nuggets where the line is +3 to -3, who score 102 or more points a game, against a good offensive team like Chicago (98-102 PPG), after a win by 10 points or more. Sporting a 30-5 ATS record is an eye-catcher (sorry for Amare reference) at 85.7 percent and this season’s 5-1 mark helps support it.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The New York Knicks are 14-1 ATS after scoring 105 points or more three straight games.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Marty of the Left Coast Connection is 11-4 this week in college basketball and is using Penn tonight as his Best Bet.

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Lesson Learned and Top Plays

Yesterday a member of the LCC unloaded on Milwaukee as I reported here for Free Pick. While I was out last night, this person called me about an hour before game time. I had never spoken to this individual and he explained who he was. He informed me once hearing about the Bulls trade, he made the decision to forgo this Bucks as a huge play and wagered the same amount of money on Chicago to counter all his previous wagers. He explained that teams on the road in this situation are often a great bet, since the remaining players pull together, especially on the road.

I asked him how he could eat all the juice, since it was a substantial amount and he told me as a professional bettor, it was better to buy out of what is bad investment than just sit and sustain a potential loss on principle. I asked him why he called and he said he saw the blog and also my email to people that had signed up and wanted me to follow his lead. I understood his position, but was not going to change my wager, since I had enough faith in other plays to break even if I lost on Milwaukee.

It turns out he made a wise play and showed me a lesson about why he does what he does and I do what I do.

Ho-Hum another 2-1 day. (Yea right) The Top Trend was a winner and today one of the teams that has a distinct home court advantage is in an extremely favorable angle. After nailing another system winner, we have one that is 82.1 percent in college basketball. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites like Middle Tennessee State, favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points, off two straight losses against conference rivals, versus opponent off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival. This spiffy system is 23-5 ATS since 2004.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Denver Pioneers are 10-1 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection is 18-9 in their last 27 consensus plays in college basketball (which you can receive for Free while they stay hot by joining mailing list on the upper right) and Appalachian State is one of their two offerings this evening.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

Washington Needs Leadership in LaLa-Land

It’s a huge weekend for the first place Washington Huskies, as they try and add to Pac-10 lead, taking in the scenery of Los Angeles. The Huskies are off a home sweep of the Oregon schools and have budding confidence after ending 15-year losing steak at Stanford two weekend’s ago. Washington has proven this season the sum of the parts is better than the individual components and basketball bettors have profited also with 15-8 against the spread mark tracking the Huskies.

Getting a gauge on Washington (19-6) is relatively easy to do. If the Huskies players are sharing the ball and passing to find the open man, they will have a very good shot at winning. If the Huskies are taking quick shots and doing too much dribbling, a loss is likely.

Once again we find in college basketball, veteran leadership is important. Seniors Justin Dentmon and Jon Brockman have been the driving force behind the success of coach Lorenzo Romar’s squad. However, this is far from a two man team. Big time recruit, forward Quincy Pondexter has finally settled in at U-Dub in his junior season. In his first two seasons, he put pressure on himself, with visions beyond Seattle. His focus this season has been being part of the team and is averaging 11.1 points and 5.6 rebounds, being a big contributor for a team that is 10-3 and 8-5 ATS in Pac-10 play.

I think the biggest thing Quincy (Pondexter) has done is taken the pressure off himself," Brockman said. "He's taken the whole NBA thing out of the deal and just said to himself, 'Forget about that. I'm going to think about the team. I'm going to think about our season instead of worrying about my future.' The hard working leader also added, “….this season, Quincy has come in and concentrated more on defense and rebounding and passing, and it's paying off."

After putting a beat down on Oregon 103-84, Washington has covered next five contests after scoring 90 or more points.

After registering four straight wins since losing at Washington, UCLA (19-6, 12-12 ATS) looked like a mirage playing in the Arizona desert, being swept, to fall into second place tie. UCLA’s resurgence had been led by its three seniors, Darren Collison, Alfred Aboya and Josh Shipp, but the latter two were ineffective last week. Collison continued his steady play, however freshman running mate Jrue Holiday played like a young player, having more turnovers (7) than points (6) in two games in the Grand Canyon State.

Maybe the Bruins players were a little too comfortable after finding there offense and believed they could just continue on, piling up offensive numbers. This was not the case, as the UCLA defense was tattered for 60 and 50 percent shooting last week and will have to rebound quickly in keeping hopes alive of winning Pac-10 again. The Bruins are 18-8 ATS off a spread loss.

Bookmaker.com has UCLA as 7.5-point favorites at Pauley Pavilion, having won and covered four in a row and posting 14-1 record (8-6 ATS), winning by 22.2 points per game. Washington is 8-3 ATS against teams with winning home record and a victory would be a tremendous step toward securing Pac-10 title, since after USC game Saturday, their remaining four games are all at home. The Huskies are 5-3 SU and ATS in road games and perfect 3-0 both ways as a road underdog.

UCLA coach Ben Howland knows what’s at stake, being three-time Pac-10 regular season champions, "This is going to be a gut-check week for us." His players are going to have to be ready to fight, as Washington is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation, while UCLA accrues the second fewest rebounds in the conference. The Bruins have not lost three in a row in over four years and have lost once to Washington at home in 22 years and is 8-3 ATS since 1998.

This Pac-10 tilt will be on FSN in many parts of the country, starting at 8 Pacific and the Huskies better be prepared to defend the perimeter, as they are 3-11 ATS in road games versus three-point shooting teams making 37 percent or more of their attempts.

Can you Profit from a Hot Goalie?

In the NHL playoffs, a hot netminder or two can carry a team deep into the postseason, as the style of play is more grinding and teams take fewer chances. But what about the regular season, can a hockey better profit from wagering on a goalie and his defensemen keeping the puck out of the net over a period of time?

First, had to determine what would constitute sizzling defensive play. The decision was made allowing four goals or less over a group of three games. From wagering perspective, how would the team do in next visit to the rink?

The breakdown was home and road favorites and home and road underdog roles. We wanted to know how all NHL teams would react, can they continue to play well or does their skill and luck run out?

Playing on home favorites would seem to make the most sense, since at least one aspect of the team seemed in order on half of the ice. This area enjoyed the finest recrord at 17-10, with the profits almost negligible at +0.40. Arriving at this result is not surprising, considering oddsmakers would shade the home favorite a bit more based on solid defensive play and losses would in turn be more costly. Seven of the losses suffered were at a -160 or higher on the money line, really dragging down profit potential, in spite of winning percentage of 63 percent.

Interestingly, the Eastern Conference teams were superior at 8-3, for +2.98 units.
There were just five instances of home underdogs that fit this study. Though the 3-2 record and +1.78 units mark is adequate, would have believed the record to be better because of stellar defense.

Taking this act on the road figured to be more trying and it was, though not dreadful. Road favorites are 9-8, losing 1.74 units. The best lesson to be learned from this group is what happens to the smaller visiting favorites. Of the eight defeats suffered, six were listed as -130 money line or less favorites. This suggests the road team is competent, yet hardly overwhelming and might be overrated after playing so well defensively.

Road underdogs could not be thought of a good wager and they were not. These travelers won just 10 of 25 contests, for -3.48 units. Similar to the story above, the best way to win is finding shorter road dogs. Eight of the 10 wins came in situations of +150 or less, which places the numbers in your favor to improve profit potential.

While digging for this exercise, a few other intriguing elements arose. The Eastern Conference has a dramatically better record at 17-10 (+6.93 units) compared to the Western Conference, which limped in at 22-25 (10.07 units.) The West ended up with significantly more situations, at 63.5 percent of all, in part because three teams in the East have not gone three games in a row with strong defensive play. Atlanta and Tampa Bay being among the three is no shocking, however if you believe Montreal is poised to make a run in the NHL playoffs, you might want to reconsider that notion based on shaky defense at present time.

Returning to original question, is it a good idea to wager on a hot goaltender, a 39-35 record, with -3.04 units lost would signify no. There are a few instances that could be bankroll builder, like playing East teams or finding shorter money line plays on road underdogs. In addition, playing against smallish road favorites has have proven in profitable in 2008-09 campaign. The best advice is be very selective and know the numbers, otherwise pass.

NBA: Favorites or Dogs Post All-Star Break?

The All-Star Break gave players a chance to rest up, party, relax, or do whatever they so desire in the few days off they have. Coaches and general managers have the time to look more closely at their teams to come up with a strategy for the rest of the season. That strategy could even be more so for seasons to come through the addition or subtraction of players through trades or acquisitions.

Will there be a team that makes a second half push to make the playoffs similar to the way Philadelphia did last season rallying from an 18-30 SU record with their 22-12 run to grab a playoff berth? The 76ers cashed tickets during that amazing turnaround at a 61.8% clip. Even more amazing was Houston’s second-half thrust going 33-8 SU, 27-12 ATS, in their final 41 games. They rallied from a 22-19 SU, 20-21 ATS mark at the half-way point.

Looking more at the norm, once an NBA season gets past the halfway point, there isn’t much left to the element of surprise. Squads that are outperforming their preseason expectations, such as the Atlanta Hawks, are now common knowledge. There is no sneaking up on the competition, no catching the other squad with their guard down.

Teams that haven’t lived up to what their outlook was before the season tipped off, like the Phoenix Suns, aren’t going to be feared by their competitors. There probably won’t be as many “look aheads” for teams who will be playing Phoenix in their next game after they play their current one.

While teams and players have some preconceived notions on what to expect from the competition based on what has transpired so far this year, so do the public and the oddsmakers. So does this mean there might be some advantages and betting edges that we can find which will help us win more wagers than we lose? Let’s see if we can find some.

I wanted to compare how teams do in the second half of the season using a few qualifiers to see if the first half is much different than the second half. The All-Star break comes slightly past the true 41-game halfway median with teams playing at least 50 games already. As my measuring stick, I called the first half of the season up to game #49 and the second half involved games 50 to 82. I went back in the exercise to the beginning of the 2003 season. Playoff games were not included in the data sample and I only looked at against the spread and Over/Under records, not straight-up marks.

I first compared a very basic situation: home favorites with no additional qualifiers. There was very little difference in the ATS numbers with home faves covering 50.9% of the time in the second half but not quite as good in the first half, 49.4%. The comparative Over/Under records were very close to the same.

I then made my home favorite a double-digit fave and we did get a little more differential with the home team in the second half improving to 51.7% versus 47.0% in the first half. Again, the O/U records were very close.

I then looked at home underdogs and got an opposite result as before. Instead of the home team doing better after game 50+ as compared to earlier in the campaign, the home team, the dog, now did worse, 45.0%, 302-369, compared to a 581-599 record, 49.2%.

Where I got some very distinct numbers was when I made the home dogs getting ten or more points. Again, an exact opposite depending upon which half of the season the game was played in. The first half saw home double-digit dogs cover the spread 61.3% of the time, with the second half HD’s suffering a huge drop to only covering the number 26.7% of the time. That is a very large dichotomy.

So far we have data supporting that favorites do a better job in covering the point spread in the second half of the season versus the first half with the bigger favorites doing even much better.
I next wanted to test the belief that as the season wears on, playing a back-to-back game has a bigger effect on teams than it does earlier in the season when players are fresher. When you factor in travel to an 82-game season, the number of games played has to have a cumulative effect on the players.

Home favorites with zero rest playing in the first 49 games covered the point spread 48.0% of the time of the season. This improved slightly to 50.0% from game 50 onward. Where there was a more significant second half of the season improvement was when a home fave’s opponent is playing without any rest. There our home fave jumped from a 49.1% ATS mark to a 54.2% success ratio.

Looking at the home underdogs having no rest in a game, there is a difference from the first part of the season covering the spread 47.0% of the time to 41.4% for the second half. Even a bigger swing is noted if you make this game between two conference foes. The first half ATS tally climbs to 52.2% ATS for the home dog while the second half drops to beating the number only 35.1% of the time.

Not having any rest clearly affects the underdog team much more in the second half of the season than the team that is favored. We can make the assumption that the underdog team is usually the lower quality team, especially if they are getting points at home. But let’s ignore who is favored or getting points in a game and just look at the teams’ winning percentages. Do higher quality teams win more games against the number against poor quality teams in the second half than they did in the first half?

The answer to that question is yes as teams with a 60% winning percentage playing a team who is winning less than 40% of their game covers the spread only 45.6% during the first 49 games. However, the good team’s ATS record improves to 52.2% from game 50 on. In this scenario of good versus bad team, there is quite a swing in the totals with the first-half games going Over the lined total at a 52.7% frequency. This is the opposite in the second half of the season with the Under happening 56.3% of the time.

Good teams improve in their ATS rate in the final part of the season when they are going against bad teams along with a dichotomy in Over/Unders.

Last year I wrote an article about a high number of teams at both ends of the ATS spectrum around the mid-point of the season. There were seven teams covering the point spread at a rate above 60%. In doing research I learned that beginning with the 2002 campaign, there have been a TOTAL of four instances when a team has finished the season with a 60% or better ATS winning percentage. And, what was even more amazing, two of those four times a team barely made it to that level with an exact 60% ATS winning percentage.

I stated it might be a good time to consider fading or avoiding betting on those seven teams as I did not believe that number of teams would maintain such a high rate of covering the point spread. Only three teams finished at 60%+ last season, which is still a high number in relationship to the past.

Last season at the time of my article there were four teams winning at a 40% or worst rate against the spread. And just like the number of high percentage winning teams, that is quite unusual. It had only happened a total of four times the prior five seasons that a team failed to cover more than 40% of their games! All four of those teams last season climbed above a 40% ATS rate, even though the Clippers came close at only 40.4%.

This season we only have two teams at or above a 60% mark covering the number, Orlando and Cleveland. However, we do have four teams below the Mendoza line of 40% ATS: Phoenix, Washington, Detroit, and Memphis, with a fifth team very close at 40.4%, Toronto. If history holds true, most of those teams should climb above the 40% ATS winning rate.

Jim Kruger is the man at Vegas Sports Authority.

Interesting Wednesday at 3DW

I’ll take another 2 out 3 day and if the guys from the LCC start hitting a few more Free Plays, we’ll really get on a roll. One individual is going HUGE on a NBA game tonight and I’m supporting him all the way. Today’s Top Trend involves the best team in the NBA in a perfect situation. If you like underdogs, we have a system in college hoops that an 82.1 winner, which you should enjoy. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON road underdogs like N.C. State of 10 to 19.5 points, off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival, against opponent off two straight wins within the league. Over the last 11 seasons, this system is 32-7 ATS. 82.1 percent, adding three more winners this year without a loss.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Los Angeles Lakers are 10-0 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams, allowing shooting percentage defense of 46 percent or worse, in the second half of the season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) A member of the Left Coast Connection made a max bet at every location he could on the Milwaukee Bucks at +2, +1.5 or money line. The dude has to have “onions” and I hope he wins.

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The NBA Second Half Picture

The NBA’s second half of the season is about to begin and though the playoffs can be interesting like last season, only a few select teams have a realistic chance to win the NBA title. The rest are pretenders and wanna-be’s and are or could be in the NBA playoffs, with little or no chance to be champions. Here is a look into the crystal ball from this point forward.

True Eastern Conference Contenders

There are three teams in the East with a legitimate chance to be the Eastern Conference representative in the finals and Bookmaker.com bares this out. Under the category of odds for number one seeds, Boston is -145, Cleveland +130 and Orlando +1275.

Boston being the favorite, still has problems to consider, especially with ability to look back to last season. P.J. Brown and James Posey were two valuable bench players the Celtics had and neither is around this year. This would not seem to be an issue finishing out the regular season with a flourish and it might not mean anything if they lack height in the East, since nobody has exceptionally tall players to contend with. However, if the Lakers are the opponent in the finals and Andrew Bynum is back to at least play 20-25 minutes per game, Boston could be caught short, literally, with bad mismatches and not enough scoring. No deals are possible to make the Celtics better at this time.

Cleveland not being healthy limits what they can realistically do to be in position to defeat Boston four times in seven games. With Sasha Pavlovic and Delonte West still sidelined, Wally Szczerbiak is the best option at shooting guard, though making a trade with Phoenix to acquire Amare Stoudemire or Jason “Speedy” Richardson (caught driving 90 MPH in 35 speed zone with child in the car) is tempting if one of Robert Sarver’s multiple personalities is available at that moment to make deal. You wouldn’t think the Cavs could keep covering at 33-18 ATS rate, however the East has enough softies and LeBron has the club ready to go almost every night. GM Danny Ferry either stands pat or finds perfect deal to add paint scorer and rebounder.

With Jameer Nelson listed at 6’0, it’s hard to fathom a player of his stature would have such an impact on a NBA team. However, his value is easy to measure for the Orlando Magic. Since being injured on Feb.2, Orlando is 2-3 SU and ATS, with two of the losses coming at home. What Nelson added besides being part of a contingent of deadly three-point shooters was the ability to penetrate deep and find Dwight Howard or open shooter. Nobody else has that talent on the Magic roster. The most obvious solution to improve is to sit down with Rashard Lewis and explain to him his salary is based on elite production, not what he feels like any given game. Get Lewis to match the value of paycheck, more possibilities open up.

True Western Conference Contenders

This might be a misnomer anyways, but this is how the West shakes out. The L.A. Lakers are prohibitive -2200 favorites to be top seed, San Antonio second at +1400 and Denver third at +1600. The Lakers sweeping Cleveland and Boston does point to them being more tough-minded than a year ago. Pau Gasol has meshed into the fold and the players know what it is like to play without Andrew Bynum. That doesn’t mean the Lakers are cinch to beat either club without Bynum. The task could be made easier with a focused Lamar Odom, who has been a force since returning to starting lineup. Keep his head on straight (good luck Phil) and maybe Los Angeles has enough. Counting on Odom three and four months down the road is like believing Shaq is coming back to the Lakers.

Tim Duncan was campaigning for a partner to score near the bucket and who likes to rebound, during the All-Star break. That is easier said than done and coach Greg Popovich is more concerned with how his team’s defensive efforts have fallen (18th field goal defense percentage) then adding a Vince Carter whose salary but doesn’t improve defense.

The Denver Nuggets look to have their best team since George Karl arrived as coach. Denver shoots a higher percentage than San Antonio (47.2 vs 46.5), plays better positional defense, in ranking as the best team in the West (fourth overall) at 44.1 percent field goal defense and has a slightly better points differential than the Spurs (+3.6 to +3.3). For the Nuggets, it is the mental hurdle of surpassing the Spurs. They trail the Duncan Gang by one game, which means they have to be two games better than the Spurs the rest of the way, since they won’t meet again in regular season.

East Playoff Contenders

Atlanta has a three game lead for the fourth seed in the East and as long as they keep winning at home with 19-6 mark (12-13 ATS) they should stay right where they are. Throw a limp blanket over Miami, Philadelphia and Detroit for slots five thru seven. Based on all-around play, Philadelphia appears to have the best shot to be fifth seed and outside chance of moving all the way to fourth. The Sixers have home and home with both other contenders and if they keep focusing on team, they should have an excellent chance for success.

Not sure if A.I. cutting hair helps the Pistons, who look like a prize fighter well past his prime. Miami has been better, yet beyond D-Wade, not built for stretch run.

It doesn’t seem humanly possible Milwaukee can or will hang on to last playoff position with all the injuries, especially if they move Richard Jefferson. This would open the door for New Jersey, Chicago, New York and Charlotte, with the Nets the choice if they start to play better at home (11-16 SU and ATS).

West Playoff Contenders

Three games separate the six teams fighting for five playoff slots. Portland is the likely choice to finish fourth, with still a chance to catch Denver for Northwest Division crown. The Blazers have the best point differential at +3.5 among the contenders. Portland has the second best home record out West at 20-5 (15-9-1 ATS) and like Dallas, has the most remaining home games (16), which should help a young and improving club.

With All-Stars Chris Paul and David West back to full health and Tyson Chandler reportedly not far behind, New Orleans is poised to make a run at No.4 seed. With 18 of the remaining 32 games on the road, the Hornets would appear to be at disadvantage; however Chandler is the key, does he plays with the intensity of last year or the nonplussed performer he has been most of this year.

Not certain about the rest of squads in contention. Houston and Dallas are above average hangers on. Utah has had the injury bug most of the year and has a long way to go to overcome 9-17 (11-15 ATS) road record. Phoenix is quickly sinking into a laughable franchise with owner Robert Sarver being the Joe Biden of the NBA, never really sure what he’s going to do next.

Tuesday's Top Wagering Action

Two out of three winners is a good way to start the week and we’ll be looking for at least that for Tuesday. The Top Trend came thru yesterday in college basketball and we’ll go with it again, focusing attention on the Missouri Valley. Have an electric system ready to ignite, posting an 86.6 percent record the last five seasons. Even though we have had hot bettors, their top plays have not been so hot. Let’s hope they start hitting again. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites like the Lakers, who have a +7 point or higher per game differential, against an average team (+ or - 3 PPG differential), after a loss by six points or less. Have to give system high marks with 26-4 ATS record since 2004, including 4-0 this season.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Bradley Braves are 14-2 ATS off a win against a conference rival over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Paul Buck nailed six of his last seven NBA plays before the break and is taking San Antonio to continue his winning ways.

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Pittsburgh and Connecticut Thoughts

So you want to play NBA general manager and take Hasheem Thabeet as the number one pick? Before you decide to do that, I’d play the tape Pittsburgh and Connecticut contest over and over again before making up my mind. You can defend the fact he was in foul trouble, yet the fact is the Pittsburgh game plan was to go right at him and it succeeded. DeJuan Blair so outplayed him (22 points and a career-high 23 rebounds), Thabeet looked like another tall stiff against a REAL All-American.

In the game write-up, I mentioned the Huskies really didn’t have anybody to match up with Sam Young and did that turn out to be true. Pittsburgh just had more options to score and was tougher-minded throughout.

I really like what Kemba Walker brings at guard and I believe he is going to have to be the player to take Jerome Dyson’s place. The huge advantage UConn had over opponents has disappeared in the backcourt.

Both teams are certainly capable of making it to the Final Four and already the season ending matchup on March 7 is something to look forward to.

Eyes Wide Open in Phoenix

Are the Phoenix Suns turning into a joke? For starters, Commish Stern has to peeved the biggest news each day over the weekend in the NBA was not the All-Star game, but the ongoing front office saga of the Suns. Owner Robert Sarver changes his mind quicker than a six year old. One minute he wants to win the NBA title and the next, move salary. Bobby, make up your mind!

Steve Kerr has shown his inexperience throughout since being hired. The move for Shaq was calculated risk and though nobody really believed it would work, Phoenix wasn’t going to win a NBA title unless they tried something. The Suns have turned out to be one of those teams that were elite in the league for a number of years, but never good enough to get over the hump. The hiring of Porter was misguided for many reasons, which ultimately all turned out to be true.

Terry Porter was good hire in principle, the problem was the roster. The Suns are littered with one dimensional offensive-minded player’s with almost no interest in playing solid defense. Asking Porter to coach established players that have had a higher level (not the top level like the Big Cactus) of success to change their ways, well unless the team leaders bought in, this was going nowhere and Kerr should have been wise enough to know this.

Porter might be a good coach, however was in the wrong situation. Part of being a coach or any leader for that matter is being a salesman. Porter appeared to believe the professionalism he played with should be how the players should react. The former Portland Trailblazer was never able to line up the right players to get the team to follow his leadership, which ultimately led to his demise.

The Suns players have also been child-like. Here is a group of players who have never won anything (except one) and they flat out refused to truly embrace something different that MIGHT have made them better. Amare Stoudemire was one of the biggest frauds. He was happy as clam last season when Shaq arrived and he could play power forward and dominate with greater freedom in uptempo style. But when his touches and scoring opportunities were being used up in new scheme, his displeasure and body language could not have been more apparent.

With Jason Richardson getting into trouble twice with the law since being traded to the desert, this is a volatile situation and Alvin Gentry himself goes into a dicey spot.

Gentry is used to being a go between as assistant, now he will be calling the shots. The players may be thankful for looser offensive reins, but he is still going to ask them to play defense. Throw in the roster isn’t settled yet either, with Stoudemire still possibly on the move, since Sarver isn’t about to overpay for a fringe playoff team that is over the salary cap.

What was for years one of the most stable franchises in the NBA, is now in turmoil with no simple solutions.

All-Star Party in the Desert

It is confirmed. The NBA's All-Star extravaganza has officially become the weekend's biggest block party.

After watching the Eastern and Western Conference team introductions last night I felt like I had just seen a rap video on MTV.

They didn't have the chrome rims or bikini car washes, but the elaborate production glistened with a stage full of dancers, blaring music, DJs and whatever else you might need to make the hardfloor go hip-hop.

And just when I thought the event couldn't get any more gangsta, Shaquille O'Neal appeared. Sirens went off, smoke filled the air and the Diesel emerged from a closed box.

Flanked by these JabbaWockeeZ mimes (I guess they won some reality show called America's Best Dance Crew but I wouldn't know anything about that because I don't watch that stuff) Shaq busted into some sort of rhythmic movement of the body and legs that might be considered a form of dancing. It was comparable to his professional "rapping" endeavors.

So after about 45 minutes of meaningless charades the association's 58th All-Star game commenced, and actually started out with some defense. At the end of the first quarter it looked like a normal game with the score 34-27 in favor of the West. But by halftime both teams had nearly hit the 70-point mark (72-67), defense was lagging and the game began to look like a Suns and Warriors shootout.

The West expanded their lead to about 20, giving them a nice cushion throughout the third quarter (and the rest of the game). Then the fourth quarter started and the contest began to emulate a traveling circus. Four to five steps were being taken on every non-existent traveling violation and cherry-picking was happening at both ends of the court.

The last minute of the game was the Dunk Contest Part Deaux. Alley oops, windmill jams and reverse slams. And let me just tell you how the last score of the game went down. LeBron James held the ball for about 20 seconds and then both teams cleared out so he could toss himself a pass off the backboard and throw down a thundering dunk.

This final bucket promptly sent the score over the total Vegas had offered by one point. I would have been sick if I had taken the under, but then again you might already be sick if you're betting on the NBA All-Star game.

And if what TNT and the NBA provided already wasn't enough to roll around in laughter until next year, they capped it off with a rekindling love affair.

Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O'Neal were named the co-MVPs. How cute is that? Can they build up the love/hate soap opera of these two any more? Give me a break.

I can't wait until the 59th NBA All-Star game next year, it should be about as uneventful as all the other ones.


Scott Cooley shares his thoughts on various subjects.

President's Day is more than Mattress Sales

What an insane day in college basketball yesterday, with underdogs 10-7 against the spread, which included EIGHT outright upsets. 3Daily Winners took it on the chin with 1-3 mark and will look to regroup today. Mark of the Left Coast Connection is back and is smoldering hot with his plays over the last several days. The Top Trend hones in how Louisiana Tech has fared against quality competition this season. The Best System out there on President’s Day is on the ice and a solid winner. Good Luck.

I’m somewhat surprised, but a number of big time bettors are staying away from Pitt and UConn tonight. They must believe the line is dead on.

Free Hockey System-1) PLAY UNDER on road teams like the N.Y. Rangers where the total is 5.5 - off a home loss against a division rival, with a winning record on the season. Over the last five seasons, this has been a steady winner at 34-8, 81 percent, which has held true again this season at 4-1.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Louisiana Tech is 9-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Mark of the LCC is turning heads with 22-10 all sports record since Thursday and he expects Texas to lasso the rival Aggies.

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Talk about your BIG Monday's!

All season long, it has been one exceptional game after another on the first day of the work week in nation’s best conference. This Monday, the importance, entertainment and wagering opportunity hits a season high as No.4 Pittsburgh visits Big East rival and No.1 Connecticut. No sushi or triple lattes will be served for this Big East smash mouth bash. This will be “enter at your risk” war in the paint. This is the first of two meetings between Pitt and UConn, and a third is quite possible.

The Huskies (24-1, 12-9 ATS) had started to show the promise most believed they were capable of back in November and have the look of the odds on favorite to emerge as national champs. Those beliefs have hit a fork in the road with the likely season ending injury to starting guard Jerome Dyson, due to a torn meniscus. As is the case when this happens to any team late in the season, you just have to pick a direction and keep your fingers crossed it works out.

No team in the country has Hasheem Thabeet to rule the lane and if he is going to be the player that is to elevate his game for coach Jim Calhoun’s club, than the injury might not matter. The 7-foot-3 junior set new career highs with 25 points and 20 rebounds in a 62-54 win at Seton Hall on Saturday and for good measure blocked nine shots.

“The difference tonight (Saturday) was there were nine players and Hasheem,” Calhoun said. “Every once in a while you see that.” When the big man plays that way, UConn can only add to 83-47 ATS record when they make 47 to 53 percent of their shots.

Don’t look for Pittsburgh’s tough-minded crew to back away from the challenge. DeJuan Blair and Tyrell Biggs are going to try to bring Thabeet down to their level with physical play. Blair ranks fifth nationally with 12.3 rebounds per game, including 5.8 on the offensive end— easily the most in the country, while averaging a double-double.

Pittsburgh forward Sam Young can create matchup issues for UConn, with his ability to go inside and out to fill the net. Though the Huskies have not been out-rebounded all season, the Panthers (23-2, 13-6 ATS) are fundamentally sound in rebounding and could gather Huskies fouls and easy put-back baskets with their technique. Pittsburgh is 11-2 ATS playing teams with 80 percent or higher win percentage over the last two seasons.

The battle of point guards should be worth viewing all by itself. Levance Fields has been downright unstoppable of late, scoring better than 12 points a game and dealing the rock incredibly in piling up the “dimes”. Fields has 56 assists and six turnovers in his past five games. Connecticut’s A.J. Price has not been as consistent on offense as in prior years, but he has distributed the ball better in his senior season and wants the ball to make the big shot at crunch time.

Connecticut still has senior Craig Austrie to plug in as guard and freshman Kemba Walker is a big time talent. Forward Jeff Adrien is a beast near the glass for both rebounding and scoring and Stanley Robinson offers several flexible options for a team that is 25-15 ATS in home games after five or more consecutive wins.

Bookmaker.com has opened Connecticut as three-point favorites with a total of 136.5. The Huskies are 16-4 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pick. Pittsburgh is 7-2 and 6-3 ATS on the road and UConn is 1-6-1 ATS if opponent has winning percentage of 60 percent or higher on the road. The Panthers have won last five games by 16.6 points per game since losing to Villanova and is 8-1 ATS after four straight wins by 10 points or more. Nonetheless, playing the top-rated team in the country on their floor is treacherous and Pitt is 0-13 all-time.

The Huskies are 12-1 and 8-5 ATS in Big East action, winning by 13.1 points a game and they are 9-3-1 against the spread in last 13 Monday night assignments. ESPN will have the coverage of round one of these two highly ranked squads starting at 7 Eastern, with the road team 7-3 ATS.

Two Sunday System Plays -88.9 Percent

Slightly disappointed didn’t get the 3-0 day we were looking for, however can never complain about 2-1. Today’s Top System yields TWO plays from an 88.9 situation. Sunday means ACC action and we have a sharp angle that is 92.3 percent. Sal is bubbling hot in college hoops, watch for his Top Play today. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON road favorites of 10 or more points, in a game involving two average three point shooting teams (32-36.5 percent) after 15+ games, with the favorite averaging 14 or fewer turnovers and the underdog an average pressure defensive team, forcing 14.5-17.5 turnovers. The idea behind this spectacular 24-3 ATS system is the favorite is unlikely to be effected by dog’s defense and the points the underdog might normally earn of turnovers won’t materialize and the road favorite covers. Play On Illinois and Akron today.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Clemson Tigers are 12-1 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams forcing 14 or fewer turnovers a game over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Sal of the Left Coast Connection is en fuego after 6-1 Saturday, taking him to 34-9, 79 percent in last 43 plays in betting college basketball. He's expecting Northwestern to overcome disappointment earlier this week and take down Michigan.

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