Home court is everything to Cavs and Celtics

Last season when the Cleveland Cavaliers altered their roster to help change the look of the team, this became the first step to changing the mind-set of the franchise. Cleveland for some time had seen the writing on the wall, when LeBron James contract was up, he would be not only interested in getting a maximum deal, he wanted to win championships, not being satisfied to lead the NBA in scoring or other rudimentary details of being a top player.

With additional shuffling of the roster, the Cavaliers have eliminated the 21 game difference between them and Boston from last season and has a two game lead over the Celtics for the best record in the Eastern Conference and they will look to build on that differential with a trip to Bean-town.

Cleveland (48-12, 39-21 ATS) has always been a defense-first team under coach Mike Brown, but this year things changed. The Cavs learned a valuable lesson last season from the defending champions; you have to bring it every night. Cleveland leads the NBA in fewest points allowed at 90.3 per game and field goal percentage at 42.7 percent. Because of their ability to defend, they are 26-9 ATS versus good shooting teams making 46 percent of their shots. With Cleveland having chosen to play hard every game, that explains why they are tied with the best record against the spread and have the best point differential in the league at +9.3.

Like Boston (48-14, 33-29 ATS), the Cavs have made defense their calling card, nevertheless you still have put the ball in the basket. James is having MVP-caliber season and point guard Mo Williams has been a big part in being another offensive weapon, both scoring and distributing the ball. He’s helped cultivate the objective.

“We got one goal,” James said win over Milwaukee on Wednesday. “That’s to win an NBA championship.”

Cleveland is 10-1 SU and ATS against the Atlantic Division, with the lone straight up loss coming on the first night of the regular season at Boston 90-85, as six point underdogs. That night quickly drove home a point for James and his teammates in case they may have forgotten from last spring. Win the home court advantage for the playoffs.

The home team won all seven games between these teams in the postseason last year, which was the main reason Boston was able to advance. This series has been dominated by the home team, with a double bakers dozen total of 14 consecutive home triumphs (7-7 ATS).

The Celtics also know the importance and are struggling some, without their leader Kevin Garnett. Boston is only 4-3 in last seven outings, with two covers. The usual defensive intensity is not their, having surrendered 97.4 points per game, compared to 92.6 on the season.

Boston did light up New Jersey for 115 points in last contest and is 13-4 ATS after a game where they made 55 percent or more of their shots and 12-4 against the spread after scoring 110 or more points. Coach Doc Rivers is trying to find minutes that make sense for and Stephon Marbury and Mikki Moore, their late season acquisitions.

Bookmaker.com has Boston as two-point favorites, with a total of 184. The C’s are 25-5 and 16-14 ATS at TD Banknorth Garden and are 9-0 OVER off a road no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite. Cleveland is 21-11 and 18-14 ATS as visitors and 26-13 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last two years.

ESPN will have the telecast of this anticipated matchup stating at 8 Eastern, with the Cavs 1-8 and 6-2-1 ATS in last nine visits to Boston.

Onward-Ho to Thursday Wagering

What a weird night in college basketball as almost none of the so-called bubble teams secured a victory including Miami-Fl, which gave us a 2-2 day. One team in really jeopardy of having the longest streak of tournament appearances snapped is the Arizona Wildcats and they are in a must win weekend along with playing well next week in Pac-10 tourney and are featured as the Top Trend. No outstanding systems in basketball today, but a 25-5 winner in the NHL goes for Thursday. Sal returns and believes he has the key winner in tonight’s important SEC East showdown. Good Luck.

Free Hockey System-1) PLAY ON road favorites against the money line like the N.Y. Rangers, after failing to cover four of their last five, against opponent having won two of their last three contests. This money line system is 83.3 percent with 25-5 record.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Arizona Wildcats are 9-0 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60 to 80 percent) this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Sal of the Left Coast Connection has nailed 60.7 percent of his last 79 college basketball plays and is playing South Carolina at home.

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What to look for Wagering on the NHL

Ron Raymond of Phoenix Sports.com has been a pioneer in the handicapping business when it comes to on-line presence. Ron is a well-known authority when it comes to NHL sports wagering and it only seems like he has been around since it was just the Original Six. With less then 20 games left in the regular season, thought we would converse with Ron about what teams might be good or bad plays the rest of the season and who might be in or out of the playoffs, come the completion of the season.

3Daily Winners: Let’s start in the East, Pittsburgh has moved up to be among the eight teams that would currently make the postseason in the East with a 7-2-1 spurt and is only six points behind Philadelphia for the No.4 seed, what do you see happening?

Ron Raymond: What happened to Pittsburgh is they lost a lot of their “sandpaper”. What I mean by that is guys on the third and fourth lines, who bring that edge to the game. Names like Ryan Malone, Georges LaRaque and Gary Roberts, those were guys that went into the corners and made room for the superstars like Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby on the ice. Pittsburgh just lost too much of their “sandpaper” guys in the off-season. Now, Pittsburgh superstars are fending for themselves and their chemistry looks poor. In those tight checking games, especially in the division, when the opposing team is taking a run at your superstars, you don’t have the players to respond. Plus let’s face it; Pittsburgh went to the Stanley Cup finals last year and any team that goes to the Super Bowl, World Series or the NBA Finals, it’s tough to come back, since every playoff series in hockey is a best of seven and you are playing every other night, it takes a toll on the body. What you end up seeing is teams like Pittsburgh going through dry periods, which in hockey circles is known as the Stanley Cup hangover.

3DW: Do you see Pittsburgh making the playoffs or falling back?

Ron: I see them falling, with Carolina and Buffalo pushing them. The Sabres lost goalie Ryan Miller leaving open the possibility they could sneak in, but I see them finishing eight or ninth. When Pittsburgh has to play those road games the remainder of the season, I see them coming up empty.

3DW: What about Carolina?

Ron: Carolina is coming on strong and had recent win over Washington. Cam Ward has been playing well in goal.

3DW: So you’re thinking Pittsburgh could be playing golf by late April?

Ron: Pretty much.

3DW: Only Ottawa and the Islanders have scored fewer goals than the New York Rangers, can the Rangers survive and make the playoffs with such a lack of offense?

Ron: The Rangers is a funny situation. If you look at all the teams that went to Europe last year, Pittsburgh, Ottawa and the Rangers, all have lost their head coach. The Rangers are bringing in Sean Avery and the big question is how that will affect the dressing room. Guys like Scott Gomez and Markus Naslund have not produced and you can’t expect the defense to carry the entire load. I would not support the Rangers, especially as a heavy favorite.

3DW: In summation, you see Carolina in and Pittsburgh out in the East.

Ron: That is correct.

3DW: One other question about the East, Boston has been very loose in the defensive end and has only three wins in last 10 games, what has happened?

Ron: What happened was Michael Ryder got injured about a month ago in Montreal and Phil Kessel was also injured. When you start losing goal scorers from your lineup and playing at the pace they were (21-5-3 from Nov. 1 to Jan. 31), there is no way you can keep up that pace, as they don’t have the talent on that team like the Detroit Red Wings or San Jose Sharks. Boston has fallen back more towards their talent level, being among the top 10 teams in hockey.

3DW: Out in the Western Conference, Los Angeles, Phoenix and Colorado look to be finished with recent slumps, of the remaining teams, Anaheim, Dallas, Minnesota and St. Louis, which would be good plays to pick up points and make the postseason?

Ron: Of the teams to be the best bet to make the playoffs, I’d put my money on Dallas. Goalie Marty Turco has come back and since they have gotten rid of Sean Avery, the Stars have had one of the best records since January. The loss of Mike Modano is set back, but Mike Ribeiro has picked up his game and Dallas proved last year they know how to win on the road. Look for Dallas to make run at the playoffs.

3DW: Nashville is 7-2-1 in last 10 games, what do you see from them?

Ron: In a given week, Nashville could go from 8th to 10th and probably back again.

3DW: Vancouver has made a big move, winning eight of 10, are they for real?

Ron: What happened for Vancouver is they got Mats Sundin. Anytime you get a quality superstar like that, he changes the dynamic of the team. I thought Vancouver was a little too confident after acquiring him. They seemed to think Sundin would their savior. It took Sundin about a month to get his timing, especially overcoming a groin injury. Any time a hockey player has a groin injury, he’s not going to trust it, always wondering if he will re-injure himself. Until the groin was 100 percent, he didn’t trust it. Now Sundin is healthy, got his confidence back and the rest of the team is playing well. Vancouver looks very good right now.

3DW: With San Jose and Detroit neck and neck for most points in the West, who do you see coming out ahead?

Ron: I like San Jose. Even though they are not a strong playoff team with unsure goaltending and Joe Thornton having never proven to a playoff hockey player, Detroit lost Marian Hossa for the second time in a week and their 8-0 loss at Nashville could signal a problem since the Red Wings don’t lose by eight goals. I checked my database at Phoenix Sports and Detroit has only lost by six or more goals twice since 1996.

3DW: In looking at the rest of the regular season, is their any wager or wagers you see that might be worthwhile?

Ron: There is always that one team in the playoffs you don’t understand, they screw up the whole party. I’m telling you right now, people better look out for Florida. If I was a betting man and I am, the Panthers are +1200 to win the East and +3000 at Bookmaker.com to win the Cup. If you have an extra few dollars to play with, might be worth looking into. I remember in 2004, I put nickel ($500) on the Calgary Flames at 44-1 to win the Stanley Cup and they got to the Finals. I hedged my bet once they got there, and I was lucky enough to come out a winner. If you have some fun money, put it on the Florida Panthers and let it ride.

3DW: That is great stuff Ron, I appreciate you wisdom and insights and good luck the rest of the regular season.

Ron: Thanks, Doug it’s been fun and good luck to you also.

Conference Tournament Tendencies

It’s March and the Madness began on March 3rd with some conference tournaments tipping off. There are some tendencies that different conferences have shown in the past. While knowing what happened at a certain frequency in the past does not ensure that pattern will continue in the future, I believe it is an additional tool that handicappers can add to their arsenal in their endeavors to make money betting on sports.

I looked at the results of all lined conference tournament games since the 1997-98 season, unless noted differently. In the overall records, I included the results of 33 games from conferences that aren’t lined on a regular basis, such as the Atlantic Sun and Big South. I compared the higher seeded teams versus the lower seeded teams, which does not always necessarily mean I was comparing the team that was favored over the underdog. For clarity, a #2 seed is the higher seed when playing a #7 seed.

It is a lower seed world in the ACC with a 54-41 56.8%, ATS record. There was also a lower than normal straight-up mark of only 64.6% of the higher seeds winning outright.The Atlantic 10 saw the higher seeded squads prevail at a nice 57.8% ATS rate, 67-49, coupled with a 86-33, 72.3%, SU mark.

The Big 12 had a higher rate of the better-seeded teams winning outright, 74.6% coupled with a small bias to the Under at a 54.5% clip.The longest post-season conference tournament belongs to the Big East with all 16 teams participating. It starts March 10th and runs for five consecutive days. Nothing noteworthy except for the lowest success rate for the higher seeds to win straight-up, 63.1%.

Nothing worthy of reporting for the Big Sky Championship except that only the top six schools get in with the #5 and #6 seeds playing at the homes of the #4 and #3 seeds respectively on March 7th. Those winners travel to Ogden March 10th for the conclusion of the tourney.The Big Ten showed a much more competitive landscape with the lower-seeded teams covering at a 57.8% rate. Not surprisingly, but this slow-paced conference saw the Under happen 56.2% of the time.

The Big West has been a very good spot for totals players with a 63.6% Under rate. However, the Colonial Athletic Association outdid the Big West playing the Under, at 68.7%. Conference USA kept with the prevailing totals trend with a 60-38 Under record, 60.2%.

The Horizon League Basketball Championship began Tuesday, March 3 with the first round being played at the campus sites of the #4,5,6 and 7 seeds. On Friday the second round happens with Tuesday’s winners advancing to Indianapolis and the court where Gene Hackman had his players measure the height of the baskets in the movie “Hoosiers”, Hinkle Field House at Butler University. The number one seed has won 15 of the previous 29 league championships including each of the last four. Not surprisingly, the straight-up record overall is 77.7% with an impressive ATS mark of 59.3% since the 1997-98 tourney, back when it was known as the Midwestern Collegiate Conference.

The Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference’s tourney tips off Friday, March 6, with the bottom four seeds playing the first round. This has been a play on the higher-seed tournament with those squads covering the point spread 61.4% of the time while winning straight up 79.1%. Once again we have a prejudice to the Under at 56.4%.

The Mid-American Conference is celebrating its tenth year of holding the tournament in Cleveland and starts March 10th. The higher-seeded teams have beaten the number set by the oddsmaker 58.6% of the time. For a change, we find the Over cashing tickets at a 57.5% clip in the MAC.

Beginning Thursday, March 5th, in St. Louis is the Missouri Valley Conference tournament. We are back to strongly considering the Under with a historical 64.3% track record and a slight bias to the higher seed at 54.1%.

The Mountain West has only been around since the beginning of the 1999 season. Supporters of the lower-seeds smile frequently in the MWC with a 58.6% ATS record. This has been an “Over” conference with 56.1% of the games going over the lined total.

Another early tourney that started Tuesday, March 3rd is the Ohio Valley Conference affair with four games at the home venue of the higher seed. Those winners move Friday to Nashville. Nothing noteworthy from an ATS perspective but the Under does happen at a 62.1% rate.

The PAC-10 stopped their tournament after a four-year run ending in 1990. The tourney was given a second life starting with the 2001-02 season. In those tourneys since the rebirth, the higher seed has covered the point spread a respectable 57.4% of the time with 59.3% of the games going Over the posted total.

With the results from the 1997-98 season on, the Southeastern Conference has also had a spate of Overs, 61.6% to be exact. The higher seed only wins straight-up 64.2% of the time but does cover the linesmaker’s number at a 55.9% frequency.

The only thing you need to know about the Southern Conference Tournament since 1998 is to bet the Under. If you had done so blindly, you would have won 70.4% of your wagers. The Sun Belt Conference’s bottom ten teams start their tournament at the campus of the higher seed on Wednesday, March 4th. The winners of those games travel to Hot Springs to start back up on March 8th. The higher seeds win outright 73.1% and are 57.8% ATS.

A healthy 61.2% of the games go Over the total.The Western Athletic Conference has no edge to report in their tournament games. The WAC starts tourney play in Reno, NV March 10th.

Since the 1997-98 season, the West Coast Conference Tournament has produced 60.5% ATS winners on the higher seeds with 54.3% of the games topping the lined total. This year the WCC moves to a completely neutral site in Las Vegas with tip-off Friday, March 6th.

In looking at all of the tournament games for the conferences broken down by the line of the higher seed, big favorites of 15.5 to 19.5 points covered the point spread 54.8% of the time but faves of 20 points or more only won ATS 38.8%. At 15 points and below, I normally break down the groups by possession, three-point increments. Teams laying 12.5 to 15 points only had a success ATS rate of 43.5%. However, the sweetest area was the 9.5 to 12 point faves beating the number 61.5% of the time. No other line-group had a 54% or better rate, betting on or against, except for two-possession underdogs, getting 3.5 to 6 points. No, it wasn’t favorable to the dogs as they only beat the spread 43.1% of the time while winning 31.8% of the games outright.

As for tendencies in totals, the only 4% or more variance from 50% was with lined totals of 160 or higher, 57.1% Under, and a 55.7% Under rate with games lined in the 130’s.

The non-regularly lined conferences had interesting marks in the games that have been lined in the past few years. While the higher seeded team had a 20-12 SU mark, their ATS record was a dismal 11-21. The Under posted a 19-13 record.

Regarding games that were played in a venue that was a true home-court advantage, other than a SU record of 76.7%, overall there was nothing noteworthy. However, breaking it down by the line of the game, home favorites of 9.5 to 14.5 points covered the point spread 61.6% of the time, 45-28. There were only 6 outright upsets out of the 74 game sample. Big faves of 15+ points still covered 55.6% of their games. Home faves of two possessions, 3.5 to 6 points, also did well at a 56.9% rate. The same can’t be said for home teams from pick’em to 3-point faves as they covered the point spread just 38.7% while winning SU only 53.1% of the time. Underdogs on their home court only won straight-up 34.6% of the games while covering an exact 50%.

Enjoy the next five weeks. For college hoops fans, this is the best time of the year.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority did the research for this article.

Time to Whack'em Wednesday

Ah, what’s that smell, oh yes, the smell of success after a 3-0 day. I can assure you we won’t go 3-0 today, since we will have four plays for Wednesday. We get two plays out of today’s best System, which is a shade over 80 percent the last four years in college basketball. The Perfect Trend pops up in the NBA and the results have been definitive. Free Play is forthcoming. Good Luck.

Like to give a shout out to “Prodegy”, who has been providing winners for readers in the Comment section. Thanks Prodegy, we appreciate it.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home teams as a favorite or pick after a cover as a double digit favorite, in March games. This timely system is 37-9 ATS, 80.4 percent since 2005 and yields two plays, both in the Big East, Pittsburgh and West Virginia.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Golden State Warriors are is 0-9 ATS in road games after scoring 110 points or more this season, losing by an average of 17.6 points per game.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Marty’s pick is Miami-Fl. to keep Georgia Tech grounded.

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No Trouble Tuesday

That feels better, a 2-1 day, thanks to the Citadel, where football TV analyst Paul McGuire attended school. Have sweet system that is 87.5 percent in pro hoops the last five years and hopefully another free winner from Marty. Weber State looks to continue winning ways as today’s Top Trend. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON underdogs of 10 or more points like Memphis, after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games. In the last five seasons this NBA system is 14-2 ATS, and is further supported with the Lakers being 2-12 ATS off consecutive road losses.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Weber State is 12-1 ATS after two or more consecutive wins this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Marty comes right back with Oklahoma State in college hoops tonight after yesterday’s winner.

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Things to Ponder Betting Futures for Baseball

In many parts of country, another long winter just won’t end. With the cold and snow, you like all your neighbors and co-workers have had more than enough. One very good sign of future weather changing events is the calendar has turned over to March, which means spring training baseball is in session and the colder days will be fewer and further between. Most teams also do either radio or television broadcasts from Arizona or Florida, creating an even greater fever pitch for spring to arrive.

Though baseball bettors pale in comparison to football brethren, there are many who enjoy the day to day grind of trying to beat the oddsmaker and relish the chance to go at it every day. Before you can get to that point, taking stock and studying futures odds gives you a good feel for each team. Here is the list of the most recent odds to win the National League pennant, with the American League arriving next week. (Odds found at various sportsbooks)

Arizona Diamondbacks +650

Arizona has assembled a fine collection of talent, which though still young, should start to produce more consistent results with the experience they have acquired the last few seasons. Brandon Webb and Dan Haren comprise potentially the best one-two punch in baseball at the top of the rotation and if hitters quit trying to jack everything out of the park and hit for better average, no reason the Diamondbacks shouldn’t win the NL West and be solid wager to be in contention for NL crown.

Atlanta Braves +1000

The Atlanta Braves lost 90 games last season and are trying to work back towards contention in unorthodox ways. Derek Lowe has 106 wins since 2002 (tied for third in baseball) and is now the ace of the Atlanta staff. Kenshin Kawakami is a former Japanese Central League MVP and will be called upon to shore up starting pitching. Offensively, outfielder Jeff Francoeur must recover after below average year or too much of the responsibility falls to Chipper Jones, who turns 37 in April and hasn’t played 140 games a year in five seasons.

Chicago Cubs +275

Betting on the Cubs to have another excellent regular season should not be an issue; it’s the postseason that causes fans of Cubbie blue their greatest concern. With no obvious needs in the batting order and in the rotation, how Carlos Marmol holds up as the closer will be watched closely. That is not to say they don’t have other question marks like Kosuke Fukudome and Milton Bradley, however Lou Pinella and Cubs will be judged by how they perform in October, should they get there.

Cincinnati Reds +1600

The old guard is gone and the youngsters have taken over in the Queen City. If Cincinnati fans are skeptical, it’s understandable after eight consecutive losing seasons. If Aaron Harang returns to normal and Edinson Volquez , Johnny Cueto and Micah Owings continue to mature as starters, this club could be surprise in the NL Central.

Colorado Rockies +2500

Did the Colorado Rockies really make it to the World Series in 2007 or was that a mirage? This Denver club was sizzling for about six weeks at the end of that season and returned to being Colorado last year with 74 wins. Manager Clint Hurdle, who is in the final year of contract, has stopped short of saying players were complacent after Fall Classic appearance, yet you have to ask, how can a team that has accomplished almost nothing be complacent? The Rocks are picked fourth in the West which seems about right.

Florida Marlins +3000

Just think if Florida fans actually gave two cents about their baseball team and the Marlins ownership has enough money to keep talented players. Another year of purging players scheduled to make a few extra bucks, only has allowed the seemingly endless supply of talented players coming up through the farm system to make the big club, without much a drop in the standings. Shortstop Hanley Ramirez is the franchise player and his supporting cast is pretty solid. The rotation looks better than most in the National League and closer Matt Lindstrom can bring the heat as fast as summer day in Miami.

Houston Astros +4000

A few preseason magazines have Houston rated as high as third in the Central Division, but oddsmakers are not buying it. Any pitching staff that has Mike Hampton on it can’t be considered a threat and if a baseball team is supposed to be strong up the middle, than how do the Astros deserve any consideration?

Los Angeles Dodgers +800

The Dodgers are still a slightly above average ball club even if Manny Ramirez does decide to sign with the club. Manager Joe Torre watched his club mature late in the season and the best thing they have going again this season is playing in the NL West. If outfielder Juan Pierre can draw more walks and shortstop Rafael Furcal can stay healthy, L.A. can place pressure on opposing defenses and the middle of the order will see more fastballs. Pitcher Chad Billingsley is off 16-win season, but is the 24-year old really ready to be anchor of staff?

Milwaukee Brewers +1700

Off a 90-win season, there should be a lot of excitement surrounding the Milwaukee Brewers right? Instead the Brew Crew is shrouded in relative obscurity. The starting rotation is fair, but who is the bell-cow that can stop a losing streak? If the last place San Diego Padres weren’t willing to pay closer Trevor Hoffman in a big ballpark, how does he figure to do in Milwaukee? The Brewers have plenty of free swingers, too many in fact that hurts offense. Oddsmakers number tells the story of this club for 2009.

New York Mets +275

New York occupies new surroundings at Citi (bailout) Field and believes they have the right combination in the bullpen to overcome what have been serious woes the last couple of seasons. Francisco (K-Rod) Rodriguez brings his 62 saves from a year ago to the Big Apple and J.J. Putz could be the most intimidating setup man in baseball. The everyday lineup still have flaws, but as long as Jose Reyes, David Wright and Carlos Beltran continue to perform, the Mets are legit choice to potentially be NL champs, if they don’t fold in September again.

Philadelphia Phillies +550

It has to drive Mets fans crazy that Philadelphia has sped by them twice and are the defending World Series champions. The game of baseball has changed in trying to pick a World Series contender. Today, keep yourself on the fringes of contention and make September push. The Phillies were 24-6 in last 30 games including post-season and return the nucleus of team that was underrated a season ago. They were second in runs scored and had best bullpen ERA in the National League, plus best stolen base percentage in the majors (84.5 percent on 161 attempts). No reason to believe they shouldn’t be contender again, especially knowing they can bypass New York.

Pittsburgh Pirates +5000

Have to give the Pirates credit; they are consistent, having tied the Phillies record (1933-48) of ineptitude, with 16th straight losing season. 2009 looks like a slam dunk to break the record, as Pittsburgh has little or no farm system to speak of and trades best players for hopefully potential young players that could turn franchise around. It’s not working!

San Diego Padres +4000

Divorce can be messy and nowhere is that more evident than in San Diego. Owner John Moores is trying to comply with California laws of community property, with his soon to be former wife Becky and the Padres are caught in the middle. Jake Peavy will be the opening day starter for San Diego, but don’t expect him to be in Padres uniform by the All-Star break. This cash-strapped organization has many players who may or may not have major league ability, nevertheless will get a shot because of troubles.

San Francisco Giants +1200

The Giants number appears to be too low considering the everyday lineup in less than intimidating. What excites most followers is the pitching staff potential in a weak division. San Francisco has the current Cy Young winner in Tim Lincecum, who won’t be 25-years old until almost mid-season. Matt Cain’s record would improve with run support and general manager Brian Sabean views the Randy Johnson signing as two fold solution. Hopefully, he can help straighten out fellow lefty Barry Zito and Johnson should enjoy spacious area from left-center to right-center.

St. Louis Cardinals +1200

St. Louis won 86 games last season despite having no bullpen to speak of and a frequently patchwork rotation. Though some of the issues that derailed the Cardinals last year still exist, at least answers are possible. Chris Carpenter is the trump card manager Tony LaRussa needs for starting staff. It would be terrific if Carpenter returned to Cy Young form, however having him as reliable No. 2 or 3 starter would not be bad alternative. La Russa also hopes to find the right combination at short and second and have Rick Ankiel play centerfield all year. If closer Chris Perez emerges, could challenge rival Cubs for first place in division.

Washington Nationals +5000

So much for a new ballpark helping Washington out after winning a grand total of 59 games last season. Injuries played a part in the 14-game decline, nonetheless, the Nationals are a long way from entertaining ideas of being .500 club and a new general manager will have to hired after Jim Bowden resigned amid a cloud of suspicion, sending the team in a new direction yet again.

Slower Day in Sports Betting- Just like most work Monday's

No question we have been in a slump of late. Found a really interesting first half system in the NBA. Though this won’t officially count, thought I would as least pass it along because of the record. A thin day in both the NBA and college basketball, but did find a perfect trend in college hoops. Free Play up later. Good Luck.

Forgot to mention spot on call on Geoff Ogilvy to win the WGC golf tournament. Sometimes you get lucky.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY UNDER on teams like Cleveland in the first half line, revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite and have a winning percentage of 75 percent or higher, playing a marginal winning team like Miami, at 51 to 60 win percentage. This first half system is 24-4, 85.7 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Citadel is 11-0 ATS in road lined games this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Marty of the LCC knows we have had troubles here with free plays and assures me Citadel -5 is winner tonight.

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Manny Being Lazy

I honestly don't think Manny Ramirez will be on a Major League Baseball team when the 2009 season commences on Sunday, April 5.

Ramirez rejected a two-year $45 million dollar offer from the Dodgers on Thursday evening. This was an increase from L.A.'s original offer of two years, $37.5 million and an extension of the team's second attempt that was put on the table at one year, $25 million.

I think Ramirez and his slimy, Gollum-like agent Scott Boras will hold out until they see a three-year deal in front of them at the very least.

Manny is content with being Manny, and if that means prolonging his offseason vacation in whatever Latin America country he is sipping on umbrella drinks in I'm sure he won't mind having another round.

I really do believe Ramirez could sit out for the first few months of the season because he is that lazy. Seriously, you've seen the guy play left field, some days he isn't even worthy of a spot on a men's softball league roster.

Unless he was the designated hitter.

Because when Manny steps into that batter's box it's all business. There is no denying, the guy can flat out rake. Ramirez is one of the top three hitters in the game and you could argue even the best. If anyone can get away with missing spring training or more, and come back as a ballistic ball-basher, it is Manny.

I think he will take advantage of a few extra siestas in the early stages of 2009 and then see which team really needs him. As clubhouses, rosters and injuries begin to shake out the demand for Manny will increase. If Ramirez somehow stays out until the All-Star break then he could be auctioned to the highest playoff-contending bidder.

Dodgers owner Frank McCourt said that he feels that his organization is "negotiating against (themselves)" at this stage of the game. He is right, and every time they throw out another offer, the price tag for Manny keeps inflating.

If Los Angeles does finally land the biggest fish in the free agent pool, they will win the NL West. If the San Francisco Giants (the other team supposedly shopping in Manny's Market) make a push, they will take the division because all that club needs is one bat in the lineup with Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Randy Johnson taking the mound every few days.

Again, I don't expect to see Ramirez lacing up any cleats until at least a few weeks into the season. And the longer Manny sits, the more rested he will be for a playoff run and October.

Writer Scott Cooley offers his thoughts here at 3Daily Winners and other locales.

Notre Dame Needs to have Fight at South Bend

Notre Dame was left for dead (playing in the NIT) after not even being competitive at UCLA, losing their seventh straight game, being blistered by the Bruins 89-63 on Feb. 7. After being ranked in the Top 10, the fall from the hierarchy of college basketball was complete. The Irish players had little fight on the west coast and their body language suggested the squad had lost complete confidence and was feeling sorry for itself. Without going into details, coach Mike Brey said he challenged his team to see if they could still be good enough to earn a NCAA tournament berth. While the world had written off Notre Dame, they found confidence and courage.

It started five days later at home against highly ranked Louisville in the Joyce Center, where the team that had looked so impressive in late November remerged. Notre Dame made the Cardinals look like DePaul, in steamrolling them 90-57. Suddenly, somebody besides Luke Harangody was making shots. Kyle McAlarney stopped forcing off-balance heaves, Ryan Ayers found the bottom of the net instead of clanging the rim with his attempts and Tory Jackson started attacking the basket again.

Notre Dame is 16-12 (8-15 ATS) having won four of last six and their loss at Connecticut, whom they essentially played even with for 38 minutes, probably earned respect among voters on the Huskies Senior Day. With two more wins, they are at the presumed magic number of .500 in the Big East to at least give themselves a chance for bid.

The Irish return home where they are 11-2 (3-5 ATS) to take on Villanova (23-6, 14-11 ATS). Both the Wildcats and Notre Dame are playing the dreaded Saturday-Monday Big East turnaround and the Irish are one of only two teams that have had this schedule four times in the league. Harangody and his teammates are 4-12 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a game this season and are the only team in the Big East that has played at Connecticut, at Pittsburgh, at Louisville and at Syracuse. “You have to take it into consideration," Harangody said.

Don’t expect Villanova to be pleased coming into South Bend. The Wildcats still have visions of earning a first round bye in next week’s conference tournament, but those aspirations took a monster hit after shooting a season a low 33.3 percent, in shocking 56-54 home loss to Georgetown, who had lost nine of previous contests.

"I thought we played hard but we didn't execute and didn't adjust to their defense, “ coach Jay Wright said. "They played better. They knew our personnel and did a great job of playing our personnel and executing their game plan." Villanova could still finish fourth and earn the double bye into the quarterfinals; however two wins and a numbers of events would have to go perfectly for them. After converting just 3 of 16 three-point shots, ‘Nova is 21-8 ATS after a game where they made 20 percent or less beyond the arc.

Bookmaker.com has Notre Dame as 3.5-point favorites with the total at 159. Villanova would seem to have no problem playing in a high scoring affair and are 6-0 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 77 or more points per game in the second half of this season. The Irish are not nearly on as solid a footing with 4-8 ATS record as a favorite (8-4 SU) and 1-5 against the spread off a cover.

This is the last Big Monday of the year on ESPN and Scottie Reynolds is key for Villanova. He was 2 for 10 against the Hoyas, for a dozen points. When he scores 18 or more points, the ‘Cats are perfect 9-0.

The action starts at 7 Eastern and both teams need a win if they hope to accomplish their goals.

Sunday info at your service

All my whining about Free plays not winning can stop as this was our only winner yesterday. Just can’t seem to get over the hump. Slick Rick has another Free Play, this time in the SEC. The Detroit Pistons are in a perfect negative Trend and today’s best System takes a gander at the big one in the Big 12. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Missouri, off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival against opponent after a road game where both teams scored 75 points or more. This system is 25-6 ATS, 80.6 percent since 1997 and is making first appearance this season.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Detroit Pistons are 0-11 ATS on Sunday games this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Slick Rick of the LCC gave us our only winner yesterday so let’s hope he’s right with Florida.

Two Has Been’s Trying to Hang On

The Detroit Pistons and Phoenix Suns have been prominent teams in the NBA playoff picture for years, but their fall from hierarchy this season has been swifter than Mike Meyer’s recent film career failures. Both front offices tried to make adjustments as their fortunes were changing and the results have been less than positive. Both are in action Sunday afternoon and each is trying to find one last bit of magic to make a playoff run.

It only figures the Detroit Pistons are not hitting on all cylinders and are very reminiscent of General Motors and Chrysler, totaling up the losses. This is a club in turmoil. Rasheed Wallace returns after sitting out a one game suspension for reaching the league limit on technical fouls and has had returned to the ‘Sheed of old, being combustible player that has own agenda and snaps when restraint would be more beneficial to the team.

Richard Hamilton wants to see a change scenery, not leave Detroit, just not start the game from the bench and return to starters role. When Hamilton was suffering from groin injury he agreed to come off the bench if it helped the team.

"I said I would come off the bench as long as we win," Hamilton said. "But we've been losing. We are 4-12 (4-12 ATS also) with me coming off the bench. Something's got to give. Something's got to change. I am on board with doing whatever for the team but coming off the bench and we're not winning, that's something totally different." It turns out Rip got his wish, but possibly by default as Allen Iverson has been sent to the plastic chair, in part because of an ailing back. This means A.I. is coming off the bench for the first time in his career and you already know how well he’s going to take that demotion.

Sports bettors have noticed the spread losses also, though the Pistons are not as pitiful on the road at 13-14 and 14-13 ATS. Detroit will be in Boston for a 1 Eastern start on ABC and they are 8-18 ATS against teams with winning records this season and off the charts awful 1-9 against the spread in the second half of the season. The Pistons are a nine-point underdog at Bookmaker.com with a total of 189.

When Alvin Gentry agreed to take over the Phoenix Suns as coach, he probably believed a change to more preferred style would alter the fortunes of Phoenix and maybe they could make enough defensive stops with all the offensive firepower still on the roster. Yet, like reaching for a car door handle in July in downtown Phoenix, the Suns have been burned with bad luck.
In less then two weeks, All-Star Amare Stoudemire has been lost for the season, Steve Nash has gone down with a sprained ankle and what was already a thin bench has been stretched beyond reason. With Nash sitting, this means Goran Dragic and Alando Tucker are on the floor and suddenly the Suns take on a Timberwolves look.

If that weren’t bad enough, Grant Hill is hopelessly mismatched as a power forward and it is starting too make more sense why teams as Golden State and Charlotte were willing to trade Jason Richardson. As the losses have mounted, the Big Cactus (Shaquille O’Neal) has become a little more disinterested, since he wants to plays for rings, not to make the playoffs.
The Suns are 17-11 and 11-17 ATS at home and are 6-16 ATS after scoring 100 points or more three straight games this season. Having to face the best team in the NBA, the Lakers, twice in four days, is not what this team needs. Phoenix is 3-11 ATS when playing their third game in four days this season.

The Lakers are road favorites and have taken six of last seven with 5-2 ATS record versus the setting Suns. This Pacific Division tilt starts at 3:30 Eastern.

Saturday Specials

Well, .500 beats the heck out of zero, but is only halfway to where we want to go. Have a system play that is 88.5 percent in college hoops and has the look of winner as long as the favorite is interested. James Madison was our fourth president and makes a good play off being an underdog. It’s about time we hit a damn free play. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON road favorites of 10 to 19.5 points like St. Mary’s, who own an eight point or bettor point differential, against a terrible team like Loyola-Marymount, who is just the opposite (- 8 or greater point differential) after 15 or more games and allowing 30 points or less in the first half in two straight games. That is a lot to let sink in, but it has been worth it at 23-3 ATS, 88.5 percent since 1997.

Free Basketball Trend -2) James Madison is 13-2 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Slick Rick of the LCC is laying the lumber on Western Kentucky.

Let's Start the Weekend with Winners

We have certainly hit a stretch of poor action after another no-winning day. I have an awesome system today that is 87.1 percent and 5-0 this year, but please check the status of the players on selected team before passing judgment. Throwing two perfect NBA Top Trends at you today. I have an NBA play that will be my largest play of the season in Free Picks. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home teams like Boston, who own a point differential of seven or more points per game against an average team like Indiana (+/- 3 PPG differential), after a loss by six points or less. I would like to believe 27-4 ATS, 87.1 win percentage should float anybody’s boat.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Cleveland Cavaliers are 10-0 ATS off a road loss this season and Minnesota is 0-9 ATS versus defensive teams forcing 14 or fewer turnovers a game, in the second half of this season

Free Basketball Selection -3) I’m lovin’ the Lakers against a Denver defense that has allowed 114.7 points in last four games.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

World Golf Championship Betting Blog –Friday

No, those wallowing sounds you heard weren’t the executives for the Golf Channel and ABC crying and moaning about their precious commodity Mr. Woods being eliminated (though it could have been), it was just the local coyotes howling. Tiger’s loss did prove he is human after all, that even a well tuned machine like him needs to play in competitive situations in order to get back to the top of his game after such a long layoff. Though this has nothing to do with the outcome, it is noticeable Woods has made a swing change with his irons. His feet are now closer together and left foot slightly open, which is designed to reduce the stress on the knee.

Besides the Tiger excitement and upset, three other matches went into extra holes, all won by seasoned veterans, Geoff Ogilvy, Luke Donald and Stewart Cink. Much like betting itself, match play shows you can be on the right or wrong side and still come away victorious or with a hard luck loss. Anthony Kim has an eagle and six birdies and lost and Sean O'Hair shot one over par and won his match against Boo Weekley.

Because were down to eight matches, the action doesn’t start to 12:45 Eastern, with some exceptional matchups. Probably the best matchup is Luke Donald and Ernie Els. Both players look to be at their best and Els now has the added benefit of not having to worry about Tiger, as has been his penchant in recent years. Els at -125 looks very tempting.

Phil Mickelson and Stewart Cink is another dandy, with two tough hombres. Most probably don’t remember Cink lost to Woods in the finals last year and Mickelson, isn’t playing to his fullest abilities, and yet keeps on grinding out wins. Take Lefty in a tight match.

My pick to win the tournament, Geoff Ogilvy, runs into the most dominate player, at least in terms of outcomes today. Camilo Villegas first two matches have been blowouts 7and 5 and 5 and 4. Villegas has the look of a champion and is actually a -120 favorite today.

Will Tim Clark have the same steely determination today? He’s a -125 favorite, however I believe tracking down a Tiger leaves you a little flat and Rory Mcllory picks him off.

My picks have been strictly play against material at 3-9 and here is what I see today.

Mickelson -140 over Cink

Poulter -130 over O’Hair

Furyk -155 over Fisher

Second Half NBA Comebacks and Failures

How many times have you heard somebody say “just watch the final five minutes of the game” when describing the NBA? The reasoning behind this statement is basically anything can happen for the first 43 minutes and it really doesn’t matter. Leads come and go, sometimes even quite large leads.

Since the 2003 season, do you know what the largest lead a team had in a game that they ended up losing straight up? (hint: it happened this season) I’ll give the answer at the end of the article. Maybe watching the final five minutes of a game is fine for a fan, but sports bettors need to know more about the dynamics of a game to assist them in handicapping.

I like to look at basic occurrences in a previous game or games and see how a team reacts in their next game. A dynamic that happens frequently in the NBA is when a team comes from being behind by a big margin to win the game outright. I wanted to see if there were any angles worth noting in a team’s next game after such a comeback victory. It would seem like a good spot for a letdown since the team has to be feeling pretty good about themselves to snatch victory from the hands of defeat. Plus, a letdown could occur as a team might have expended quite a lot of energy in their comeback. Starters might have played longer than normal so physical fatigue could be an issue. So could mental fatigue as comebacks require tremendous focus and intensity.

The time frame I used for my research was the beginning of the 2003 season onward and did not include any playoff games. I started with a basic situation of a team in their previous game being down by ten or more points at halftime but who came back in the second half to win the game. Teams that had this type of win in their previous game only covered the spread 41.8% of the time, 110-153, in their next game. This is an exceptionally easy angle to look for that has produced 58.1% winners betting against comeback winners since 2003. The Under had a slight edge at 52.1%.

I could end this article here and be pretty happy with providing that 58.1% stat all by itself. (it would also save me hours of work!) But, as always, it is good to try to find additional examples of winning angles to make money with.

I wanted to use halftime scores as they are more etched into players' minds than just taking the biggest point deficit during a game. There is discussion at halftime between coaches and players about first half-performance and how to play the second half with new strategies and ways to attack and defend the other team.

I did research on what happens in a team’s next game after they overcame a ten-point deficit at anytime during the game, not just halftime, and went on to win straight up. Whereas our halftime deficit of 10+ results in a 41.8% ATS rate in the following game, if the deficit occurred at anytime during the game there is a 48.0% ATS rate in the team’s next game. So a halftime margin is more important than a random one. Let’s add some qualifiers to our base trend, down by 10+ at half and winning the game. First, if our team is playing their next game without any rest, there was not much of an improvement betting against them but it did give us a totals situation worth considering with the Under happening in 56.2% of those games.

If our comeback team is favored in their next game they only cover the number at a 39.7% rate as compared to the dogs at 44.8%. Away favorites are 36.8% ATS and home favorites clock in at 40.8%. You don’t want to bet against home dogs, 51.4% winning ATS, but away dogs are only 42.1%. Another nice trend to note is the Under cashes tickets at a 65.8% clip for away favorites.

Would the competition in the next game make a difference in our results? Not in the case of whether the next opponent is a conference or non-conference foe as the ATS records are almost exactly the same in coverage rate. If the previous game where our team rallied to win was against a non-conference foe and now we are playing a divisional rival, the game goes Over the lined total 63.0% of the time. If the opponent in the previous game was a divisional one and this one is a non-conference game, playing against our team improves to a 65.2% mark. Beating a divisional rival after being down to them at halftime obviously carries more of a hangover for our team if they are playing a non-conference squad in their next contest.

I next looked at the location of the games. We did have an improvement of betting against our team from the base rate of 58.1% when no exact site was specified to 63.5% if both the previous game and the current game are on the road. The Under has a 58.8% success rate, also. An interesting twist on looking at the sites of the games is when both games are being played at home with the added condition of our team’s next game being on the road. When that happens, playing against our team in the second game is a 65.9% winner with now the Over being the total to bet on, a 56.8% occurrence.

We have talked about teams that rally from a halftime shortage of ten or more points to win a game. How about the team that blew that lead and lost, how do they do in their next game?

Since the start of the 2003 season, teams off of a blown lead and loss are covering the point spread in 54.7% of their next games. Teams that are playing on the road after their previous game was also on the road win 58.1% of those second games against the point spread. The best advantage came in betting the Under in these games, a 62.7% winning situation.

In this post-blown lead and loss circumstance, dogs and pick’ems were the side to bet on winning 57.0% of the time versus just 51.4% for favorites. In looking at conference and division combinations, there were a couple of situations that improved our base trend significantly. If the second game was against a divisional rival, our team covers the spread 61.5% of the time along with a 60% Under bias. If the previous game where our squad let the lead and game slip away was against a divisional foe and we are now an underdog in our next game, our ATS success rate improves to 64% and our Under bias raises to 72%. Our Under rate improves further to 77.3% if we are now playing a conference foe in the second game.

I increased the halftime deficit to 15 or more points for our team that rallied to win to see if there would be a betting advantage we could use. The only thing that really stuck out was the Over in our base trend occurred 56.9% compared to a 47.9% frequency when the deficit at half was only 10 points or more. Teams must be less focused and play with a little less intensity on the defensive side when they have even a bigger come from behind win.

I asked the question earlier in the article what was the biggest lead a team blew in a game that they lost straight up over the past five years. The answer is 29 points, which Minnesota blew on 12/30/08 on the road at Dallas. The Timberwolves were up by 22 at half and increased their lead to 70-41 early in the third before the Mavs reeled off a 22-2 run to get back in the match.
It’s time to start paying attention to halftime scores so you can take advantage of the profitable situations that happen when a team rallies to win in their previous game and also those games after a team blows their halftime lead and loses.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority penned this piece.

Thursday's Action and need your help

Got back on the correct side of the ledger, with a 2-1 day and now looking to build a little momentum. Maybe the perfect Trend can lead us down the path of consistent winning and we have another in Pac-10 play. Today’s best system is an 81.5 winner and let’s see if this can come up a winner also. Good Luck.

Our Free Plays have stunk recently, give me your free play in the ‘comment section’ and let’s see if you can help bailout our poor performance in this category tonight. (Thanks to those who have commented thus far, appreciated, hope you win)

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST underdogs of 10 or more points like Santa Clara, off a close loss by three points or less to a conference rival, against opponent off a home win scoring 85 or more points. This beauty of system is 22-5 ATS, 81.5 percent over the last half decade.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Washington Huskies are 9-0 ATS versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds a game on the season this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Sal has continued to do very well in college buckets and plays UAB with the points and on the money line. (With the points will be our play here)

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World Golf Championship Betting Blog –Thursday

If you just flipped on the Golf Channel for a few minutes or a few hours, it was nice to something in the world not crumbling around us, as Tiger Woods is back. He made spectacular shots, knocked in a few long putts and used a few choice words as he is wont to do when he doesn’t hit the shots he wanted. One of the more interesting aspects of Tiger’s match with Brendan Jones was Jones demeanor. After losing 3 and 2, he was much more euphoric about playing with the living legend than actually trying to defeat him.

I got beat up pretty good with 1-5 record, and was particularly surprised Rory Sabbatini lost, since I had him playing Tiger down the line. I thought Retief Goosen would defeat Tim Clark, who is a very solid player and though there is no way ever to know, you have to wonder if Goosen wanted to avoid El Tigre, since he was the one who questioned if Mr. Woods was really hurt at the U.S. Open and might have been playing martyr to the crowd. Clark will instead get the assignment of facing Tiger as the day’s biggest underdog at Bookmaker.com at +230.

The biggest upsets of the day went completely unnoticed, as top seeded Sergio Garcia and Padraig Harrington both lost in first round matches 1up. Second seeded-Phil Mickelson had to go 19 holes to hold off Angel Cabrera. Camilo (Spiderman) Villegas gave the most dominate performance, winning 7 and 6.

I have my eye on six more plays today. Pat Perez who earlier won the Bob Hope Classic, came in as 16th seed and took down Harrington. I’m going with the oddsmakers who actually have him as -120 favorite today.

Hunter Mahan is a big strong guy and I like his game to take out Rory Mcllory as -105 underdog.

Though I picked against Steve Stricker yesterday, he convinced me he hot, nearly winning the L.A. Open last week and had five birdies and an eagle yesterday. Ernie Els doesn’t much care for these events anyways; I’ll take Stricker at -110.

Lee Westwood and Luke Donald are veteran match play competitors and both should advance as favorites. Though Ian Poulter is anything but a household name unless you are a big golf fan, he is way more well-known then 16th seed Charl Schwartzel. Poulter has six birdies in 15 holes yesterday, thus I’ll lay the -160 on him.

See you tomorrow.

Memphis and Pac-10 in Focus for Bettor's Tonight

The thought of Arizona State and Washington playing for first place in the Pac-10 with less than two weeks to go in the regular season is as preposterous as Rush Limbaugh liking something the Democrats do. While that will never happen, the Sun Devils and Huskies have a key contest in Seattle that will weigh heavily on the outcome of Pac-10 title. Memphis’ string of C-USA wins only seems like the Harlem Globetrotters winning streak, and they hope not to have water thrown on them by Alabama-Birmingham, who will be trying to end the streak.

Memphis at UAB

Over the last several seasons, Memphis basketball has been known for ultra-talented athletes that can run and score points in bunches. This year’s team may lack the primordial skills of coach John Calipari’s previous teams, yet this squad is proving to be every bit a challenge to beat as his other clubs. The Tigers (24-3, 16-9-1 ATS) are holding opponents to under 38 percent shooting and have held nine different teams to 52 or fewer points this season, in spite of uptempo style. Memphis is 20-10 ATS after nine or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons (7-2 this year). The Tigers stupefying 54-game C-USA winning streak could again be tested at a place where they almost succumbed last year.

UAB (19-8, 12-13-1 ATS) is a dangerous team; they don’t make many mistakes and have known quantities that make winning plays. Robert Vaden has an all-round game, Paul Delaney III is among the conference leaders in shooting percentage from the guard spot and Lawrence Kinnard has been in the top three in C-USA all season in rebounding. The Blazers are 12-0 at home (6-5 ATS) and will want to finish what they started last year, blowing a late lead to lose to Memphis 79-78.

Bookmaker.com has Memphis as 4.5-point favorites and they are 7-1 ATS versus teams with winning records. UAB has lost six straight (1-4-1 ATS) to Memphis, however the home team 6-1 ATS in last seven meetings.

ESPN will have this C-USA conflict at 9 Eastern.

Arizona State at Washington

If the Sun Devils are in an important contest late in the season, most fans and alumni would assume it is baseball game. But coach Herb Sendik grew tired of being unappreciated in the ACC by his former employer and instead has taken over a sleepy basketball program that couldn’t draw many more than 200 students to come watch a game unless their rival Arizona was on the other bench. That has all changed with Arizona State (21-5, 14-8 ATS) nationally ranked and bidding for a Pac-10 title.

Since joining the conference 30 years ago, the Sun Devils have seldom contended for league honors, let alone win a Pac-10 basketball title. Yet seldom have they had a player of sophomore James Harden’s ability. The team is a classic Sendik assembly job, not appearing to work cohesively until they hit the floor. ASU is 7-2-1 ATS facing teams with winning home records.

Washington (20-7, 16-8-1 ATS) is just as unlikely to be in first place this late in the season with a chance to be outright Pac-10 champs. The Huskies were co-champs a couple of times in the mid-1980’s, otherwise the only basketball regular season championship was during the Eisenhower administration (1953), when the league was known as the Pacific Coast Conference.

Senior leadership or experienced upperclassmen is often why ordinary teams exceed expectations and Washington has a pair of hard to beat in bruising Jon Brockman and guard Justin Dentmon. These two warriors have been through it all in Seattle and are relishing their senior seasons with the help of a youngster, freshman Isaiah Thomas who added the extra dimension. The Huskies are 14-1 and 9-4 at home and will have raucous crowd at the venerable B.O.A. Arena, the old Hec Edmonson Pavilion.

Washington is 11-4 in the Pac-10 and is two-point favorite over Arizona State, who is 10-4 in conference and 6-2 SU and ATS in true road games. The Huskies won the earlier meeting in Tempe 84-71 as six point road dogs.

FSN has the tip at 8 Pacific, with the road team 6-1 against the spread.

Trying to get over the hump on Hump Day

Got hammered yesterday as Orlando has stopped playing defense, New Mexico missed covering by a point and San Diego State didn’t utilize home court to their advantage. We’ll try and change our luck with a prefect Trend that is 11-0 since 1997 for a Missouri Valley team. Also, from the way back machine, found a system that is 78.2 percent (non-qualifying) from the year when Suddenly Susan was the No.3 rated TV show. (1996) Good Luck.

Had a good laugh about the Northern Trust bank using millions of dollars to host and throw parties in Los Angeles area for L.A. Open despite receiving bailout money from the government that is essentially yours and mine. Granted, they had already committed to hosting golf tournament, but just maybe pull back on all the festivities, I think people would understand. What was really humorous was they said no money was used from the bailout cash they received. Maybe somebody should look and see how much cash there is in reserve for entertainment division.

Free Basketball System-1) Play Against underdogs like Portland, off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60 to 75 percentage). Dating all the way back to 1996, this system is 36-10 ATS. (Thanks, StatFox)

Free Basketball Trend -2) Evansville is 11-0 ATS after scoring 75 points or more three straight games since 1997.

Free Basketball Selection -3) This is hard to believe, but 10 bettors from the LCC are on Marquette and not one on UConn.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

Making Sense of Numbers in Revenge Games

With less then two weeks remaining in the regular reason for college basketball, nearly every game has a revenge twist to it. Some of the bigger conferences will not have every game playing into pay back contests, with the unruly nature of trying to play most every team once, with leagues of more than 12 universities. In fact, the Mid-American Conference to date has not had a single return match this season.

In looking for an edge in gambling on college basketball, trying to comprehend what certain numbers mean from the oddsmakers is important. For example, if two teams in the same conference are evenly matched, the standard deviation should have the home team favored by four to five points, depending on the league and what a typical home court advantage would be. This would mean any normal return game should have a swing of eight to 10 points. When this doesn’t occur, what does this mean?

If a team was favored by 10 points playing at home and is now favored by eight on the road (instead of about two), how should this information be interpreted? Was the favorite undervalued to start with or has the other team gotten worse and needs more points from those setting the line to make a more even contest from wagering point of view?

For this and other answers, went thru every conference that keeps track of point spreads and limited all revenge situations to in-conference only. (Random tournaments and scheduled games did pop up) Stayed with the standard deviation of 8-10 points, also added revenge games where the spread was 7.5 or less or 10.5 or greater.

The specific question was -how do teams perform in following meeting after having beaten their opponent, be it home or away, against the spread? Ended up studying the results of 21 conferences and this is what was found thru Feb. 23.

Starting with the normal turnaround numbers of 8-10 points, the first time winner was not very successful in posting 91-104 ATS record, good for 46.6 percent mark. This is not entirely surprising given the fact the numbers fell within conventional parameters. If the two schools are somewhat comparable, then it would stand to reason the more motivated previous loser would play better. Certain conference contributed more to the losing than others as you can see.

Big 12 1-6 ATS
Horizon 3-7 ATS
Ivy 1-5 ATS
Sun Belt 4-8 ATS
WAC 2-5 ATS
West Coast 1-4-1 ATS

Each of the other two categories essentially generated the same meanings, depending on how you interpret the numbers; however the volume of games was dramatically different.

The spread differential of 7.5 or less points yielded 189 games almost as many as what was perceived as average point spread differences. (195) In this case, the results again favored the team in revenge, even to a greater degree. The revenge-minded club was 104-85 ATS, 55 percent. Why this number could be higher, is the results of the initial contest might not have accurately reflected the strengths or weakness of the two teams and enough has changed since prior encounter to limit the amount of movement in the spread.

Here we find sharp figures pointing pronounced results in particular conferences, with teams looking a for season split very profitable.

Big Ten 7-3 ATS
Big West 8-1 ATS
Colonial 6-1 ATS

Nevertheless, the numbers are balanced out is some method and other leagues saw the previous winning team covering the spread in next contest.

Ohio Valley 11-7-1 ATS
Pac-10 8-5 ATS
WAC 2-0 ATS

Spread differentials that were greater than 10 points were less than half, with a total of 89 recognized plays. The results were remarkably similar to the other groups, with the revenger 48-41 ATS, 54 percent.

In this part of the study, two conferences stood out for different reasons. In the Colonial, the winning team looking for a cover was 0-4 ATS, while the same squad in the Pac-10 was an even better going the other way at 6-0 ATS.

For the rest of the regular season, look to certain conferences which have had a proclivity to revenge situations. Here are the best and worst records against the linemaker for teams trying to sweep league rivals and cover the number.

Colonial 9-22 ATS
Horizon 13-20 ATS
Ivy 3-8-1 ATS
MAAC 13-21-1 ATS
WAC 9-14 ATS
West Coast 6-12-1 ATS

Pac-10 19-7-1 ATS
Big Sky 16-10 ATS

Keep these numbers handy over the next several days and remember, revenge is best served with a purpose.

World Golf Championship Betting Info

If their was ever a golf event made for sports bettors to wager on, it is the WGC match play event in Marana, Ariz, about 30 minutes north of Tucson at the Ritz-Carlton GC at Dove Mountain. This brings the best 64 players together according to the world rankings and puts them in a format similar to the NCAA basketball tournament, with four brackets and every player seeded. What is different about this event is the match play format, head to head. As opposed college basketball, the number one seeds have lost in the first round. The difference between the best player in the world and No. 64 is not as great as the average person may think.

The lowest rated player might get the putter going and birdie a number of holes, putting pressure on the favorite. Or the underdog could just plod along making pars and hit a stretch and win three holes in a row, essentially winning the match. Among the intriguing aspects of betting this five day tournament, there is no M.O. of a particular type of player that separates them. Tiger Woods has the best mental makeup to win six matches, but he’s also the most talented player in the world.

Match play brings out different aspects of golfers personalities compared to stroke play and certain events can really change the course of a match. The legendary Bobby Jones lamented facing a player scraping by. "When a man misses his drive, and misses his second shot and wins the hole with a birdie, it gets my goat," Jones said.

Tiger Woods return couldn’t be any more welcome to the PGA Tour, as nobody really took over the tour in Tiger’s absence. His return means better attendance at the events he plays and increased television viewership. Woods is a +475 favorite at Bookmaker.com to win, which he has to be in theory because of who he is. However, to ask anyone who has not played a competitive round of golf since June of last year, play 90 holes of golf (give or take depending on how the matches go) just to get to the 36-hole final, well even that seems like a challenge for Mr. Woods.

Phil Mickelson and Henrik Stenson are +1500, followed by Sergio Garcia at +1600 and Anthony Kim at +2000. My personal choice is Geoff Ogilvy at +2000, who won this event in 2006 and lost to Tiger last year. Even this selection comes with trepidation, since this is the first year they are playing at the new 7,849-yard Jack Nicklaus-designed layout, after playing across the street at the Gallery. The layout has four par fives, wide fairways and rambunctious greens with more undulation and turns than the local rattlesnakes.

Here are my first round wagers for Wednesday.

Retief Goosen -120 over Tim Clark

Rory Sabbatini -150 over Miguel Angel Jimenez

Soren Hanson +130 over Ernie Els

Dustin Johnson +110 over Steve Stricker

Mathew Googin +140 over Kenny Perry

Stuart Appleby -105 over Martin Kaymer

Turnaround Tuesday at 3Daily Winners

Marty of the LCC is having a solid season betting college hoops and offers his top play after an official 1-1 day here. Today’s system is a recent repeat and is 30-7 against the spread. New Mexico has long been a great home favorite and they are in one of their best spots tonight. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON all teams like Orlando where the line is +3 to -3, scoring 102 or more points a game against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG), after a win by 10 points or more. This system was just used Sunday and actually lost as I warned it might, however the situation and the teams are completely different, lending credibility. This system is 30-7 ATS, 81.1 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The New Mexico Lobos are 13-2 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points the last two years.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Marty of the Left Coast Connection had Kansas and Louisville last night, giving him a record of 119-92, 56.3 percent in college basketball and his Best Bet is on San Diego State.

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Jockeying for Position in College Hoops

The final week to two weeks before conferences start playing their tournaments can be full of land mines. A situation to watch for are teams that have just achieved a meaningful goal or hit a milestone. Those teams can be a great “go against” in their next game as many times it is a letdown situation. A team winning its 20th game or clinching a conference title should be noted. Drake last year exceeded their goals in winning the Missouri Valley Conference title. Their next game was at home against Bradley as a 6.5-point favorite. They lost outright.

You should know if a team is locked into a certain seed or within a range of their conference standings and have really nothing to gain in their final few conference games prior to their tournament. Be careful with those squads as the coach might want to rest key players or be more concerned in preparation for the tournament than for individual games.

What teams took a tumble this past week or at least lost some of their shine? Let’s start with Davidson. Their foe, Butler, became the only real victor who gained anything in Bracket Busters weekend. The Bulldogs had just lost two games back to back in the Horizon League, one of them at home, and were looking vulnerable. Butler, a very young team, but one who plays tremendous defense with intensity handled the more experienced Davidson squad rather easily.

Stephen Curry did play for Davidson but stated he was not 100%. Davidson’s chance of securing an at-large bid was already in jeopardy as they had lost at home to The Citadel by 16 points within the week. Curry missed that game but a Tourney team should never lose to The Citadel at home, especially by double-digits.

A case could be made that St. Mary’s also got a huge up-tick in their stock beating Utah State, and covering the point spread I should add. However, with an RPI of 53 and playing in the 15th ranked West Coast Conference, it is the NIT unless they beat the #1 WCC Tournament seed, Gonzaga, in the conference tournament. If that happens, the conspiracy theorists will come out of the woodwork saying the Zags loss was orchestrated by the conference to get the extra money they earn by having an additional team in the big dance.

Going into the weekend there was talk the Mountain West could get four teams into the NCAA’s: BYU, Utah, UNLV, and San Diego State. UNLV beat BYU over the weekend but San Diego State got mauled by New Mexico on the road losing by 26 points. The Aztecs have a slightly higher RPI than the Rebels, 47th to 50th, and did beat UNLV in OT in Vegas. UNLV also suffered from losing three road games to second tier Mountain West schools. Two big games on the road for UNLV are Utah on 2/25 and San Diego State on 3/7.

The Ohio Valley Conference only accepts the top eight of its ten schools into their tournament. This coming Saturday there is a true elimination game as the two teams tied for 8th in the conference with 5-12 records meet each other in their final regular season game. Tennessee Tech travels to Jacksonville State with the winner grabbing the #8 seed for the tourney and the loser calling it a season. Tennessee Tech did lose at home to Jacksonville St. earlier this year, 82-66.

The Pac-10 is a conference that has byes going to the top 6 teams in round 1 of their tourney. The bottom four schools have to play an extra game and thus will have to be victorious in four straight games without any rest to win their tournament, an almost impossible accomplishment. The two teams with the best chance of getting the #6 seed are USC and Oregon State, which incidentally meet on their last P-10 game.

UCLA is showing some deficiencies. They dropped their Saturday home game to Washington St. and have now lost three of their past four. Believe it or not, the Bruin defense has been performing terribly allowing a defensive efficiency rating of over 116 in those past four games. Their RPI has slipped to #36 and have a game at Cal Saturday, #32, which will help determine conference tourney seeding.

In the Big 12, the first four teams get a bye. Right now, there are four squads fighting for that #4 seed: Texas, Kansas St., Oklahoma St., and Nebraska. It is always important to be aware of any added motivation a team might have in a game.

The bottom two teams don’t go to the Atlantic 10 Tournament. These should be George Washington and Fordham. Even though it appears Fordham long ago gave up on the season, 4-18 ATS, their last game of the season is at home against St. Joseph’s and it could be a spot to consider the Rams.

St. Joseph had high aspirations going into the season, some people picked them to win the A-10. They looked good winning nine of ten games after the beginning of the year but have stumbled losing four in a row. The Hawks play cross-town rival Temple the Thursday before their final scheduled game against Fordham on Saturday, 3/7. The St. Joe bench is the next to shortest in the D-1 with only 14.96% of all minutes not coming from their starters. With this being Fordham’s final game of the year and St. Joseph possibly resting players who are exhausted from a long season, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rams cover the point spread.

The Big Ten grants first-round byes to the top five finishers. The middle of the pack, Penn St., Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio St., and Michigan, are fighting for seeds 4 and 5. All five of these are also on or very close to the bubble.

Assuming Memphis wins the Conference USA Tournament, they will probably be the only league representative in the NCAA Tournament. However, if #39 RPI UAB beats Memphis at home this Thursday and runs the table, they would probably make it the final cut. The Blazers looked impressive humiliating Southern Miss by 30 points Saturday.

Teams like to feel as if they have “locked in” an invitation to the big dance before going to their conference post-season play. They don’t want to be in a position where they possibly have to win the tournament, or at minimum are required to have a very good showing, to make it to the NCAA Tourney.

Kentucky is sitting on the fence with a convincing win over Tennessee this past Saturday that they sorely needed. Their final four regular season games will make or break them as they still face South Carolina, LSU, and Florida. Only LSU of those teams is probably a lock for the NCAA so they should be hotly contested battles. Inconsistency, a #61 RPI, and an opening game loss to the Big South’s VMI are hurting the Wildcats.

Like other 12-team leagues, the ACC’s top four teams get a bye while the other 8 play. Wake Forest is fighting to overtake the current #4 team, Florida State. One team you can count out for an at-large berth is Virginia Tech. Not only have the Hokies lost 5 of their last 7, but their remaining four games are with Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, and Florida State.

A couple of RPI oddities are out there. Siena could be this year’s version of the 2006 Missouri State program that finished with a #21 RPI but didn’t get an at-large bid. The Saints played a tough schedule and are 5-0 against teams ranked 51-100. However, they have two losses to 101-200 schools.

If anybody has the time, could you please explain to me how Utah has managed to be the #11 RPI rated team? They lost to Southwest Baptist, a non-Division 1 team, and the #186 team, Idaho State. They are 0-1 versus 1-25 teams and 4-4 against 51-100 squads.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority wrote article.

Question and Your Comment

What basketball teams in college or pro have you been dialed in on or what teams cause you to lose sleep at night, were you just never win?

Looking to Start a Winning Streak

Not being able to get any winners out of free plays, which are costing us winning days. I’m not surprised at all the system lost yesterday (which I warned about), however I would be today. This will not be official system play since it is below 80 percent. Have another Top Trend that is perfect and looks at tonight’s Big 12 battle. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home teams like the Clippers, after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games, against opponent after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game. This situational system is 30-8 ATS, 78.9 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Kansas Jayhawks are 10-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Paul Buck is 6-1 in last seven NBA plays and is on Philadelphia to end two game losing streak to New Jersey.

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Cashing in on the Louisville Money-Making Express

Coach Rick Pitino is a truly unique individual, he gets life. Not just in the basketball sense, but on broader subjects. Of course he wrote the obligatory basketball book - Full-court Pressure: A Year in Kentucky Basketball, when he was at Lexington, on his way to winning national championship. However, his scope is much larger, with books like – Success is a Choice and Lead to Success, telling stories how to overachieve and be a great leader in business and in life. Though no known new book is forthcoming, the title would be easy to identify for astute followers of Pitino at Louisville - Finding Success Betting the Big East.

In what arguably has been the toughest conference in college basketball over the last three years, Coach Pitino’s team’s are 38-10 the last three years in the regular season in the conference and an astonishing 36-11-1 against the spread. That is +23.9 units of profit playing some of the fiercest competition any team can face.

The Cardinals (21-5, 16-10 ATS) are one of four teams with a pair of losses in the Big East, still with hopes of trying to win the league regular season title. Louisville has won and covered three in a row since running into the Notre Dame buzz saw on the road. Louisville responded with home wins over DePaul and Providence by a combined 63 points and overcame a good Cincinnati team on there home court 72-63, as 5.5-point favorites, which even impressed the coach.

“I think our passing has gotten better,” Pitino said. “We made some excellent passes. We executed great against their full-court pressure. We just played a terrific game.”

Louisville will play a second straight conference road game at ghastly Georgetown (14-11, 7-13-1 ATS). The Cardinals make every sports bettor giddy, with their 22-4 ATS road record since 2007. Part of the Cards success has come in the second month of the year, where they are 17-4 against the oddsmakers number. With Pitino’s books being about learning to build success the right way, his teams the last three years are 15-4 ATS off a road win.

Coach John Thompson III might have gone to Amazon.com and picked up enough copies of Pitino’s books and handed them out to his players once the new year arrived. Georgetown was supposed to be run of the mill in conference, but after knocking then No.1 Connecticut at there place to raise record to 10-1, hopes of Hoyas uprising were taking place. Similar to the euphoria of President Barack Obama taking up residence in nearly Washington, D.C., reality set in and problems arose.

If any team has a weaknesses, conference opponents will be the ones to expose them and Georgetown ended up with a Pandora’s boxful. The Hoyas have lost eight of 10 (1-8-1 ATS) and are 4-10 and 2-11-1 ATS since hitting 2009. When asked if he thought this was a difficult season, Thompson offered these thoughts.

“Period. Not just at Georgetown,” Thompson said. “But we’ll get through this. Yeah, it’s trying. But we’re going to do what we do. We’re going to try to get better from the top on down.” The Hoyas are 5-9 and 3-11 ATS in the Big East.

Despite the problems, oddsmakers haven’t written off Georgetown, as they opened as a one-point underdog with a total of 130 at many sportsbooks. When checking different angles, it’s not easy to support G-Town, since they are 0-8 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3. The Cardinals would look to be in a more favorable position with 13-2 ATS mark as road favorite or pick and 8-1 ATS if the number is six or less.

Angles, trends and book sales don’t win games, players and coaches do. ESPN will have the next story unfold for both teams at 7 Eastern on Big Monday, with likely many bettors waiting for Pitino’s club to add another winning chapter.

Three Weeks until Selection Sunday

It was a tough way to lose, getting back-doored, as Siena led by 12 or points for 33 minutes against Northern Iowa, only to have the number fall below in the last minute and fail to cover for 1-2 day. We have a Free Play in the Big East going today. Michigan State is in a perfect situation in Big Ten action after being blown out. Hardly any good systems in play for Sunday and I would be cautious with this one also, because of the uncertainty of the rosters and the huge line move made by those wagering. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON all teams like Phoenix where the line is +3 to -3, scoring 102 or more points a game, against a good offensive team averaging 98-102 PPG (like Boston), after a win by 10 points or more. This system is 30-6 ATS, 83.3 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Michigan State is 8-0 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) One member of the LCC who focuses primarily on short numbers in basketball (four or less) is playing Syracuse today.

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