Denver Earning Respect

Coach George Karl has been around basketball his entire life, playing at North Carolina, a solid ABA and NBA player and later a coach. His reputation as NBA head coach is somewhere between above average to never rated in top five. This is his fifth stop on the professional coaching trail. Though he’s won over 900 games as NBA coach, he’s probably known more for his team’s failures than success. As coach of Seattle (1992–1998), Karl's 1994 squad won 63 games, yet flamed out when Sonics were upset in the first round by the Denver Nuggets, making them the first number one seed in NBA history to fall to an eight seed.

After departing Seattle, Karl was lured by lucrative contract to Milwaukee and immediately helped turn around a moribund franchise, which culminated in a losing in seven games in the 2001 Eastern Finals to Philadelphia, led by Allen Iverson.

Karl had been reunited with Iverson, this time as his coach in Denver, however it was obvious to veteran NBA followers, Iverson was not a facilitator and they traded him to Detroit for Chauncey Billups. The former Piston embraced returning home to Colorado and his new teammates appreciated the pass-first mentality.

Denver looked headed down another nice season only to be dismissed in the first round of the playoffs, especially after losing a third straight game in early March, the last at home, to a tougher-minded Houston team.

Whatever happened at that point, only the players and coaches know, but the Nuggets as a team scrapped the “soft” label and finished the year 14-3 (10-7 ATS), winning the Northwest Division with franchise-tying 54 victories and securing number two seed in the Western Conference.

The next test was beating New Orleans in opening round of playoffs. Yes, the Hornets were banged up, but that wasn’t Denver’s problem, they had enough playoff failures to write an e-book. The Nuggets completely neutralized the Hornets the first two games on home court to take 2-0. Denver had upper hand early against New Orleans in Game 3, but the Hornets fought their way back to victory 95-93.

This placed onus on a better Denver team to standup and prove they deserved second seed and did they ever. A 36-15 first quarter blitz left New Orleans with no gear to find to comeback and the Nuggets seared them 121-63. Denver's 58-point win matched the most lopsided victory in NBA playoff history, since the Minneapolis Lakers 133-75 blowout of the St. Louis Hawks in 1956. Without digging into the research, taking a stab at saying the 59.5-point cover is the largest in postseason history.

Coach Karl considered Game 4 the most complete and efficient game in his coaching career and now wants his club to go for the kill and polish off New Orleans. Denver is 16-5 ATS after playing as road underdog and is on the verge of winning first playoff series in 15 years and first best of seven in 24 years.

Denver understands the professional pride aspect of the Hornets losing in such a manner and they have to be prepared for New Orleans best shot. "I don't think we're overconfident," Anthony Carter said. "We weren't overconfident on the bus ride from the area. It was quiet like we just lost. We weren't playing loud music, celebrating or none of that." The Nuggets are 10-4 ATS after scoring 100 or more points.

Oddsmakers, like those at BetJamaica.com believe in coach Karl’s team after four covers in four games and have installed them as 10-point favorites, the highest figure of the series. Denver is 8-3 ATS after covering the number. The total has gone back up heading back to the Mile High city to 197 and Carmelo Anthony and friends are 9-3 OVER as favorites.

It’s a tall mountain for New Orleans to climb, as Chris Paul looked thoroughly spent in having one of the worst games of his career after playing 46 minutes in Game 3 and they are 7-20 as road underdogs and 14-2 UNDER after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half.

Denver goes for knockout on TNT at 10:35 Eastern, with Hornets 5-15 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points, losing by average of 11.2 points a game.

Nationals Building Profits as play against team

Our nation’s capital is closely monitored by those on the left and the right and everyone in between. Their actions ultimately impact everyone in our country and they should be justifiably be scrutinized. Though is appeals to a much smaller audience, the actions of another outfit in Washington bares keeping taps on, which if used wisely, is very much to the financial benefit of those paying attention.

The Washington Nationals are hemorrhaging losses with 4-15 record and have already lost -9.7 units before the first month of the season has even completed. They have already covered the gamut of ways to lose. They have lost close games, suffered blowouts, blown leads, come up just short on comebacks and been shutout.

What is interesting about the Nats being the worst team in baseball is statistically in many cases, they are not as bad as their record shows.

They are 13th overall in batting average as team at .266 and are mild underachievers in scoring runs comparatively, ranked 19th at 4.5 per game. Many Washington hitters are Jekyll and Hyde at the dish, with the Nationals second in walks per game at 4.6 per game, but dead last in striking out at 8.7 per nine innings. The latter number is especially troubling, meaning basically one-third of all outs, the ball in never put into play to advance runner or give opponent chance to make error. Leaving runners on base can be an overrated statistic, since having players on the base paths shows you are at least hitting the ball and taking walks, however being 30th in never good.

As one might expect, the Washington pitching is extremely poor, but not the worst. The Nationals allow the most runs per game at six in the National League, yet still surrender fewer than the vaunted New York Yankees. They are in the mid-20’s in strikeouts and top six in walks allowed. The Nats can receive a good pitched game, yet someone in the bullpen will undermine all the good work as 0-7 record and six blown saves shows.

What makes Washington so bad and a play against team; they are a sum of their parts. They are below average to meager in virtually everything they do. Outside of third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, who has 17-game hitting streak, too many holes in the lineup and a pitching staff lacking talent.

Manager Manny Acta will send Scott Olson (0-3, 7.29 ERA, 1.810 WHIP) to the hill, trying to salvage one game against Philadelphia in the series. This will conclude six-game road trip for Washington who is 7-30 against the money line after five or more consecutive road games over the last two seasons.

They will face Brett Myers (1-1, 4.91, 1.480) who is striking out nearly a batter per inning this season. The Nationals are 7-34 vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters per start, nevertheless can take some hope into the game. The Phillies have given up league-leading total of 40 long balls with at least one in a record 16 consecutive games to begin 2009. Myers has been a big culprit with eight.

Bookmaker.com has Philadelphia as -175 money line favorites with a total Un10.5. The Phils are 20-5 vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 or worse. Washington is 12-35 as a road underdog of +125 to +175 and Olson is 13-3 OVER in road games against division opponents over the last three seasons. (Team's Record)

First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 Eastern and series final finale will be available for viewing in local markets and MLB.TV. Maybe the return of shortstop Cristian Guzman from the 15-day disabled list will spark the offense and improve the defense for Washington, or not.

Trying to keep winning on a Tuesday

3Daily Winners has reached the 60 percent barrier after yesterday’s 2-1 day, taking us to 27-18-2 over last 17 days. The Top Trend was winner with imposing figure and we have another in the NL Central. We have a fabulous MLB system that is 90 percent. (No snikes, it’s true) Kendall has a strong feeling about tonight’s game on the diamond this evening for Free Play. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – Dan Haren of the Snakes is throwing about as well as anybody in baseball to start the season.

Free Baseball System-1) Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175, who are below average hitting team (BA .265 or less), against a good American League starting pitcher (ERA of 4.20 or less), with a starting pitcher whose gives up one or more home runs a start. The team to go against is Oakland and this system is crazy 36-4, 90 percent the last four years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Milwaukee is 18-1 playing host to Pittsburgh.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Kendall has hit last six MLB plays and loves the Cardinals tonight.

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NFL Draft – Who got it right and who screwed up

When you think about it, what goes into selecting young men to build a football team, it is a lot like a NASCAR race. The strong teams have the right people in place to succeed and they have a very clear understanding of the task, no matter where their position is in the field (draft board). Others view the race (upcoming season) as reason to take chances and try to make the right moves that will help not only this year, but in the future as well. Also, there are others who could have the best car in the field and they would go hire Cal Naughton, Jr. as their driver.

The NFL draft’s impact as a whole is seldom felt or correctly determined until three or more years down the road, when all aspects can be judged. Were starters added, based on value of draft position and was adequate depth brought in to help when injuries occur. Nevertheless, subjective evaluation can be determined by where most experts thought players should be drafted and how each NFL team presumably improved there stock for upcoming season and beyond.

Teams Taking Step Forward

Kansas City Chiefs

For the second year in a row, the Chiefs added to foundation of turnaround with a completely new front office. The New England flavor was apparent with new Kansas City GM Scott Pioli running the show. The defensive front is a priority, taking DE Tyson Jackson and DT Alex Magee to blend with Glenn Dorsey. If this group matures quickly, they can cover up other defensive weaknesses and within a year or two the Chiefs are right in the thick of AFC West race again, with San Diego and Denver coming back to the pack.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The running game slipped to 18th last season in north Florida and coach Jack Del Rio needed reinforcements to upgrade the offensive line to play his preferred style. Picking offensive tackles Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton takes Jacksonville towards short term goal of establishing running game and protecting quarterback David Garrard.

Cincinnati Bengals

Some draftniks were not as impressed with the Bengals draft as whole, but for a team needing something more than a collection of average players, Cincinnati met those requirements. Supposedly OT Andre Smith and LB Rey Maulaluga have character issues, but that is why coaches are asked to make players accountable. How has Randy Moss done in New England, trouble-maker, I think not. These two are arguably as good as any players at there positions coming out of college and neither is finished product, meaning with proper coaching, they have room to grow. DE Michael Johnson could be passing rushing specialist off the edge and TE Chase Coffman has to be inviting target to Carson Palmer as real threat all over the field.

New York Jets

Give credit to GM Mike Tannenbaum for being aggressive and going after the player he wanted in Mark Sanchez. The feeling one gets in watching Sanchez is he seems ideal for New York, with confident easy manner. He might not be prototypical laser thrower, but he can make all the right throws and has look of natural born leader. RB Shonn Green doesn’t have 0-60 speed, but he makes people miss in the hole and runs for the tough yards on third down. Did a lot with a little.

New England Patriots

The best organization in football flows like the St. Charles River. After just missing on perfect year and another Super Bowl in 2007, New England has committed to rebuilding with youth, with not much perceptible dip in productivity, after finishing 11-5 with a quarterback who had essentially not played in the NFL before last year. S Patrick Chang and CB Darius Butler should make secondary better, possibly as soon as late in the season. DT Ron Brace helps keep defensive front stout and three offensive linemen if as good as the Patriots believe, will add depth and be possible replacements down the line. As usual, Bill Belichick secured even more future picks. Rollin’ down the river.

Green Bay Packers

General Manager Ted Thompson took a great deal of heat for Brett Favre ordeal last year, but this is his strength and it showed. B.J. Raji is perfect nose tackle in new 3-4 defense scheme and Clay Mathews is versatile, intelligent linebacker who adds spice to what has been vanilla defense. The offensive linemen will be expected to work their way up the ladder as eventual replacements.

Teams Taking Step Backward

Oakland Raiders

Honestly have no idea if Darius Heyward-Bey will be a star, but I do know the seventh player taken in the draft should be a fairly complete player. Some TV analysts were trying to cover up for Al Davis saying Cliff Branch was raw player coming out of college, who cares, that was 37 years ago. You seldom hear of a top 10 pick exceeding expectations, however you hear about a whole truck-full that doesn’t live up to expectations. Oakland is smarter than everyone else, that is why they drafted S Michael Mitchell, whom most projected as latter round draft choice. Another throw away draft for organization living in the past.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers need a quarterback, but having seen Byron Leftwich play in the NFL all these years, Josh Freeman looks like the second coming. The big man has all the intangibles, however most agree, something is missing. The windup delivery should surface as problem and he doesn’t possess the greatest mobility, which would be less of issue if he released the ball quicker. DT Roy Miller is known as plugger and DE Kyle Moore has potential, not what you would call electrifying.

Buffalo Bills

Aaron Maybin may be the pass rushing specialist the Bills have lacked at linebacker for years; nonetheless, the term “one year wonder” has to creep into conversation, since that is how long he started at Penn State. Trading away Jason Peters meant offensive line needs had to be addressed and neither C Eric Wood nor Andy Levitre was not distinguished players who overwhelmed scouts. CB Jairus Byrd could save this pedestrian looking group for a team off a trio of 7-9 seasons.

The Winning Continues at 3Daily Winners

Another 2-1 delivery takes us to 25-17-2 over extended period of time and we have a HOT baseball system that is 34-4. Paul gave us a Free Winner yesterday and comes right back playing on the very team he went against yesterday. We have an article on Roy Oswalt today and it is almost impossible to play against him on principle for today’s Top Trend. Good Luck.

What I couldn’t figure out yesterday – Why the Orlando Magic doesn’t get the ball inside to Dwight Howard in the final four minutes of the game. They would certainly have better looks on kick-out passes and he can score inside.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON all favorites with a money line of -150 or more like Milwaukee, who are below average NL hitting team (BA .255 or less), against a team with a very good bullpen that has 3.33 ERA or less, with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits a start. Talk about a great system, the record is 34-4, 89.5 percent and for a touch more, the Brew Crew is 17-1 hosting the Bucs.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Roy Oswalt is 23-1 SU against Cincinnati.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck has hit 10 of last 12 MLB plays and believes the Marlins will break out of slump.

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Hornets favored to even series behind Paul

The Hornets went home down 0-2 and clawed their way to victory over Denver 95-93 Saturday. New Orleans did it the old-fashion way, just like their coach Byron Scott used to do it with the Los Angeles Lakers as a player, by shortening the bench and relying on starters. Scott used a total of eight players in Game 3, including having point guard Chris Paul play 46 minutes. In order to even up the series, the all-star may have to reach same threshold or more in tonight’s contest.

“It’s the playoffs. There’s nothing to save and Chris is such a passionate player, he wants to be out there,” Hornets center Tyson Chandler said after practice on Sunday. “It’s like you almost have to peal him off the court. He does a good job of letting coaches know when he’s really gassed so he can get a breather and get back out there.” The former Wake Forest product scored 32 points and dished out 12 assists, in his first big performance of the series.

Paul played 34 minutes in Game 1 and 38 minutes in Game 2. New Orleans lost both games by double digits and coach Scott had to change the formula.

Scott said of the eight-man rotation on Sunday, “worked pretty good for us and it’s obviously something I’ll probably do tomorrow.” The Hornets did fail to cover the 4.5-point spread in last game and has failed to cover the number in this series. They are 15-5 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games.

Denver’s Chauncey Billups hopes his team is more patient on offense in the next game if Paul is asked again to play heavy minutes. “We feel like he has to play that many minutes for them to have a shot,” said Billups. “His responsibility for his team is probably more than anybody’s in the league. We have to try to take advantage of him on the other end of the court, make him defend and try to wear him down a little bit.”

After shooting 50 percent or better in the first two games of the series, the Nuggets struggled in the bayou, connecting on just 40.5 percent (30-74) from the field. Denver has to force the tempo and raise the score, since they are 9-2 ATS when they score 103 or more points since Mar. 23.

Bookmaker.com has lowered the Hornets down to 2.5-point home favorites with total of 194. Denver is 15-5 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog and 12-3 OVER in road games after a loss by six points or less. New Orleans continues to have difficulties beating the spread and they are 3-8 ATS in last 11 games and 8-2 UNDER playing at home.

NBA-TV will have the coverage starting at 8:35 Eastern, with the Hornets 8-3 ATS as postseason favorites.

Oswalt looks to continue dominance over Cincy

Though Roy Oswalt has yet to win a game this season, there is no better team for him and Houston to face at this moment than Cincinnati. To say Oswalt has had success against the Reds is like saying the Cleveland Cavaliers had a pretty good home record this season.

Oswalt (0-2, 4.68 ERA, 1.440 WHIP) is 23-1 over 29 career games, including 27 starts. He has a 2.39 career ERA versus the Reds. He last faced them on April 17, taking a no-decision after throwing six shutout innings. Overall, Houston (7-12, -5.1 Units) has won 22 of his 27 times he has taken the ball to begin a game against Cincinnati (10-8, +3.4) and is 11-1 in 16 road starts.

The Astros have not been playing good baseball, losing six of last 10, including dropping three of four against the Reds earlier this month. Houston despite a veteran lineup is not hitting, tied for last in baseball in runs scored at 3.5 per game. The Astros are 19-6 against the money line revenging two straight home losses vs opponent over the last three seasons.

Cincinnati has been a little more consistent and avoided being swept at home against Atlanta yesterday with 8-2 triumph. The Reds offense has been nominally better at 3.9 runs scored per game, though its batting average is quite a bit lower than Houston’s (.233 vs .248). What has helped Cincinnati is better starting pitching, as in half their games the Reds have held opposition to three or less runs. The Cincy bullpen ERA is nothing special at 4.30, however when it has counted most, Francisco Cordero has led bullpen that is six for six in save opportunities.

The Reds are 31-50 (-26.8 Units) against the money line in home games after a win by six runs or more and give the ball to Johnny Cueto (1-1, 2.55, 1.188), who was brilliant in last outing. The 23-year old pitched seven scoreless innings against Chicago in 3-0 whitewashing for the win. Cueto allowed just four singles and didn’t walk a batter, following instructions from pitching coach to stop nibbling and be aggressive.

Cueto has not enjoyed much success against Houston with 0-3 record and 6.75 ERA in five starts. He has been a victim and another reason why the Reds have lost 14 of 15 at home to Houston. BetJamaica.com has the Reds as -114 money line favorites with total Un8.5. If the line holds, this will mark the first time Oswalt has been underdog to Cincinnati, with the Astros having won 12 of his last 17 starts. Houston is 10-2 UNDER as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season.

The Reds have not excelled as favorites at -150 or less, with 2-5 mark and are 7-2 UNDER if Cueto starts after scoring five or more runs.

The Central Division action starts at 7:10 Eastern in both local markets and on MLB.TV, with Oswalt and ‘Stros 2-6 on the road against teams with winning records.

Seeking Sunday Wagering Success

Would have had a perfect day if Florida could get ANYBODY out in the ninth inning. This takes record to solid 23-16-2 and dug up a perfect Trend on Atlanta today. The Best System is 83-17 and Paul Buck chimes in about Fish for Free Play. Good Luck.

A word of caution going both ways in MLB today. Eight road teams are going for sweeps today, making them tenuous plays in my opinion. Just be smart and don’t go overboard either way.

What I couldn’t figure out yesterday – How the draft works. Some of the picks were astonishing in my opinion, more on that this upcoming week. Darrius Heyward-Bey the seventh pick, only the Raiders.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON all favorites with a money line of -175 to -250, who are averaging less than a home run per game on the season, after a win by four runs or more. The Metropolitans are the team and the system is 83-17, 83.3 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Atlanta Braves are 0-11 on the road after a win by six or more runs.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck has hit seven of last nine MLB plays and believes Florida will be lost cause against Philadelphia before the ninth inning.

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NBA Sunday Betting Previews

The second big day of professional basketball action this weekend has the other eight teams still competing to advance in the playoffs. Detroit has all but thrown in the towel as eighth-seed and series could end today. Chicago was feeling great about themselves just days ago, but a loss puts them on the critical list. Orlando and Portland are both are the road and need wins to avoid being down three games to one.

Boston at Chicago 1:00E ABC

Reports out of the Windy City had the Bulls feeling pretty plucky about almost winning two games at the defending NBA champs place and with a couple of home wins, Chicago was thinking upset. Instead, Boston but the basketball equivalent of water-boarding on the Bulls and blew them away by halftime. Chicago did themselves in also with 22 turnovers. Bulls coach Vinny Del Negro said nerves weren’t a problem, but how else do you explain a team making 90 percent of free throws in the first two games, misses nine in the first half? Maybe the coach is right; it’s not nerves, its expectations. With more than 48 hours to prepare, Chicago is in advantageous spot since home teams off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, playing with two days rest are 54-15 ATS the last five years. For some reason, the Celtics are still three-point underdogs.

Cleveland at Detroit 3:30E ABC

If this was a MMA fight, they would have already called it. Though Detroit will say all the right things about playing possession by possession and trying to win quarters, in there hearts do they really want to put off the inevitable? The Pistons are .500 at home this season with cheerless 13-29 ATS record. They are on 0-6 SU and ATS run and 3-11 ATS at home after failing to cover the spread in two or more games this series. The final nail in the coffin is Cleveland is 15-1 ATS after leading their last three games by five or more points at the half this season. The Cavs are eight-point road favorites.

Orlando at Philadelphia 6:30E TNT

The Orlando Magic are quickly finding out they have flaws and more than most realized. They have blown double-digit second half leads in two games, winning once in the series and trailed by 17-points to come all the way back, only to be nipped with just seconds to play. Two more buzzer beaters and Philadelphia sends Orlando home for the summer most unexpectedly, but why?

Asked King Creole of Playbook.com why he thought Orlando has been less than magical. “I'm not surprised that they are struggling in this series. Orlando is historically a very POOR favorite in the NBA Playoffs (13-23-2 ATS in their history). That includes 1-5 ATS as playoff road favorites. And they're even worse when they have high aspirations. Orlando is 6-15-2 ATS in the playoffs when they have a current win/loss percentage of .666 or greater. When priced as a favorite of 11 or less points, they are 3-12 ATS.”

He went on to add, “The rims get 'tighter' in the NBA playoffs for teams who are so dependent on three-point shooting success, like the Magic. After hitting 38-percent in the regular season on three-point attempts, the numbers are down to only 31.1 percent so far in the post-season. In Game One, they shot only 27.8 percent (5 for 18). In Game Two, they shot only 26.2 percent (6 for 23).”

Bookmaker.com still has the Magic as four-point favorites with total of 191; however they are far from safe bet at 1-8 ATS record in last nine games.

Portland at Houston 9:00E TNT

This is quickly turning into a coach’s nightmare series. Both teams have had moments of utter brilliances, which were followed by foolhardy play; those watching could have laughed out loud like at a Chris Rock concert. Yao Ming has lateral movement of a battleship, yet Portland players keep taking the ball right to him. One trip the Blazers’ players set a perfect screen to free up dribble penetration and the trip down the floor, it’s a good thing NBA refs don’t call moving screens, because the attention to detail is forgotten. Portland has to put Game 3 behind them, which might not be that easy since they are 22-41 ATS off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog.

Somebody on the Houston coaching staff needs to let Aaron Brooks know he doesn’t HAVE to shoot the ball in every important situation. They might also want to remind the Rockets players that nothing bad will happen if they maintain defensive focus for four quarters. Houston continues to dominate Portland at home with 11-1 record (5-7 ATS) and they are 29-12 ATS after they failed to cover the spread this season. Oddsmakers have lowered Houston to 4-point favorites.

Saturday Stuff

Didn’t get everything back from Thursday, but at least produced a winning day. The Top Trend was the only loser and we found a dandy in the NHL for Saturday. Marty is making serious cash and has a Free play and today’s Best System is 83.7 percent in the big leagues. Good Luck.

What I couldn’t figure out yesterday –Florida had a 3-0 lead going into bottom the ninth with closer Matt Lindstrom. He was just terrible and with the score now 3-2 Marlins and bases loaded, Fish manager Gonzalez didn't bring in lefty reliever he had in the bullpen ready to face Shane Victorino. I understand Victorino is switch hitter, but he had batted left-handed all night, flip him over to other side of plate, plus Utley and Howard were next, both lefty's. Victorino hits grand salami and Lindstrom gives up seven runs and Marlins lose. I understand the result could have been the same, but it was obvious Lindstrom just didn't have it. It's nice to want to build a guy's confidence, but last I checked the manager's job is to win games.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher, who are a good AL hitting team with a batting average of .285 or higher against a team with a below average bullpen (ERA of 4.50 or higher), who hot hitting team - batting .333 or better over their last three games. This is the Toronto Blue jays and this system is 36-7, 83.7 percent.

Free Hockey Trend -2) The Chicago Blackhawks are 12-1 against the money line in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored five or more goals.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Marty raised his streak to 22-5 and likes Florida not to blow game tonight.

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Betting Options for NFL Draft

For professional football fans, weeks and months of speculation come to a head. For fans of specific teams, you hope the general manager can fill the needs of your team and they can start improving right from day one. For many, this is the best kind of reality TV, as just when you believe will occur and the people paid to tell you what is going to happen, well faster than you can say “Brady Quinn” something out of the blue changes that would even throw off Heidi Montag. With this annual event going more prime time, the sports bettor can place wagers on a variety of options at various sportsbooks and have a little fun while sippin’ a few cold ones with friends.

The draft itself will hinge on two things that will happen early. At the moment, Detroit is trying to get deal done with Matthew Stafford. If for some reason that doesn’t work out, don’t be surprised if Lions take tackle Jason Smith and trade for quarterback Derrick Alexander of Cleveland setting of an unforeseen chain of events.

If the first three picks go as planned with Stafford, Smith and Aaron Curry, Seattle controls the board and whom they choose will have trickle affect on the next 15 to 20 picks. Please note, all plays are based on normal events, trades and other outside factors are beyond my control. Here are several props I found online.

Number of Quarterbacks taken in Round One
Over 2.5 (-350) - Under 2.5 (+225)

The safest play is Over with Stafford and Mark Sanchez a given, however I’m hearing rumblings Josh Freeman might be in free fall and have Aaron Rodgers and Quinn moment, possibly all the way to second round. Still hard to fathom he would fall that far in a draft not loaded with extraordinary talent early.

Number of Running Backs taken in Round One
Over 2.5 (+120) - Under 2.5 ( -160)

Knowshon Moreno and Chris Wells will be taken. The wild card is Donald Brown out of Connecticut. A number of the draft experts have his going to Arizona, but a Cardinals insider suggested to me defensive tackle or tight end is more important and they will look at finding this year’s Steve Slaton in round two. That’s enough to make me play Under.

Number of Wide Receivers and Tight Ends taken in Round One
Over 6 (-170) - Under 6 (+130)

This is a really tough call, since six seems to be the right number with Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Brandon Pettigrew, and Darrius Heyward-Bey all certain and Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt and Percy Harvin all liked by different teams on the back end of first round. I could put on chicken suit and pass, but I’ll say the latter three are all playmakers and this prop goes Over.

Number of Offensive Linemen taken in Round One
Over 6.5 (-105) – Under 6.5 (-135)

Playing the Under here and feel strongly this one is accurate. Jason Smith, Eugene Monroe, Michael Oher, Andre Smith and Eben Britton are locks. A few reports have William Beatty well liked by Minnesota and Pittsburgh might draft a center to cause a defeat, however don’t see it happening and going with original feelings.

What will Michael Crabtree’s Draft Position be?
Over 7.5 (+200) – Under 7.5 (-300)

Crabtree is arguably the most NFL ready player and the last spot he should fall to is Oakland at seven. Play Under.

What will Andre Smith’s Draft Position be?
Over 6.5 (Even) – Under 6.5 (-130)

In December this was an easy answer and the Under would have -130 at 5.5. But because of several gaffes by Smith and other quality tackles available with less baggage, Smith has become Over play, with Washington a likely destination.

What will Mark Sanchez’s Draft Position be?
Over 10.5 (+160) – Under 10.5 (-220)

I’d wait until Saturday morning on this prop. If Stafford goes to Detroit, probably safe Seattle takes Sanchez. If those events don’t take place, watch out. Seattle could still pass on the USC signal caller even if Stafford is chosen by Lions; however this is supposed to be quarterback-driven league right?

What will Jeremy Maclin’s Draft Position be?
Over 7.5 (-140) – Under 7.5 (even)

This has to be Over, unless Al Davis is more goofy than believed. Only way this loses is if Cleveland makes late deal and moves Braylon Edwards.

What will Knowshon Moreno’s Draft Position be?
Over 21.5 (+110) – Under 21.5 (-150)

Hard to believe New Orleans, San Diego and Philadelphia would pass on the best running back coming out of college. Play Under.

What will Chris Well’s Draft Position be?
Over 15.5 (-170) – Under 15.5 (+130)

New Orleans and San Diego are the presumed destinations and if I were GM, I’d pass, because I see this guy out of the league in four years with one injury after another. Trying to wager with my head and not my heart, the Saints need a big back to compliment Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas. Play Under.

What will BJ Raji’s Draft Position be?
Over 7.5 (+200) – Under 7.5 (-300)

Cleveland needs help in defensive line and Raji is perfect fit at fifth slot.

Which Player Will Get Drafted 1st?
Knowshon Moreno (Georgia) +150
Chris Wells (Ohio State) -200

Checked in with friend Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com for this prop and he offered his opinion. “I see Knowshon Moreno going ahead of Chris Wells. Moreno is quicker and more competitive than Wells, who has been sidelined too often with injuries. Moreno should go in the middle of the 1st round whereas Wells will likely be nabbed late in the round. In fact, don't be surprised if Donald Brown or LeSean McCoy goes ahead of Wells.”

Which Player Will Get Drafted 1st ?
James Laurinaitis (Ohio State) +175
Clay Matthews (USC) -250

At the beginning of the year, this might have been even bet, not anymore. Unless Detroit takes Laurinaitis at 20, a few draftniks I spoke to are no longer even sure if the Ohio State linebacker will be chosen in first round. Play Mathews.

Total SEC Players Drafted in the 1st Round
Over 7.5 (+160) – Under 7.5 (-200)

In studying the draft from several different angles, just can’t come up with the eight player to make this an Over play.

Total ACC Players Drafted in the 1st Round
Over 5 (-170) – Under 5 (+130)

The swing player seems to be Nicks from North Carolina and I believe he is picked, probably by the Giants, making this Over play.

Total Big 12 Players Drafted in the 1st Round
Over 5.5 (-135) – Under 5.5 (-105)

I have six players even if Freeman would happen to fall out of the first round. Defensive tackle Evander Hood out of Missouri looks ticketed for Indianapolis more and more. Make the move on Over.

Total Pac 10 Players Drafted in the 1st Round
Over 5.5 (-135) – Under 5.5 (-105)

Have to play Under, with the four from USC and Britton from Arizona. Centers Max Unger or Alex Mack could blow up my bet late, but I don’t believe so.

Total Big Ten Players Drafted in the 1st Round
Over 4.5 (-120) – Under 4.5 (-120)

This is easily the hardest of the conferences, with only three virtually guaranteed spots. Laurinaitis is likely and Vontae Davis has first round ability with questionable maturity. Receiver Brian Robiske could be surprise with his stock rising with particular teams. A hesitant Over play.

Patrick White (West Virginia) - Will he be Drafted on Day 1 of the Draft (Rounds 1 and 2)
Yes (-150) – No (+110)

Though many NFL teams are enamored with White’s athletic ability, his stock has fallen as first day choice from -200 to -150 in just days. With this negative trend, betting No.

3DW Bounce Back Friday

It was bound to happen and did, took one in the chops with 0-3 day. Time to pick ourselves up and show MLB system that is 51-10 the last five years. The Rangers travel to Baltimore and are in negative situation according to Top Trend. Congrats to Marty who made HUGE score and he likes K.C. this evening. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – Every now and again, like all sports bettors, I act like a real amateur. Even though the line didn’t make sense, I played the Bulls. One of the guys in LCC lives in San Antonio and has a real pulse on the Spurs. He wins two/thirds of the times betting for or against them and he even told be that Dallas was good in Game 3, I just ignored him. Lastly, the White Sox and O’s looked like an easy Over, it wasn’t. I don’t mind losing, but I hate being foolish and too often when we are, we lose.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites like the Mets with a money line of -150 or more, averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game on the season, after a loss by four runs or more. This system rings up very nicely at 83.6 percent

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Texas Rangers are 2-14 against the money line vs. a sickly bullpen whose ERA is 5.00 or worse over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Marty and golfing partner just took home a large sum of cash winning best ball event, which goes right along with his 17-4 betting streak and he likes Kansas City tonight.

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MLB Series Wagering- Yankees at Red Sox

Just the words -Yankees and Red Sox- bring a strong passion for every baseball fan. Oh sure, we all know ESPN and Fox are biased towards covering these teams, but why shouldn’t they be. In today’s world of fighting for every position and yielding no quarter, New York and Boston are like Coke and Pepsi competing for your attention. Think about it, what rivalry in sports is acted out in the national media 12 months a year? They compete strenuously during the regular season and on occasion in the playoffs. After one has potentially gained the slightest edge on the other, they compete for free agents and try to make newsworthy splash in trade to out-do one another. These two teams and organizations exemplify the very word, competition.

What also makes this rivalry great is how the teams approach each series. This weekend starts the first of 18 meetings between these AL East combatants and even though the score isn’t always close, a compelling tale emerges from each contest. Over the last seven regular seasons, New York leads 68-63 overall. The widest margin has been 11-8 in any given year, with 10-9 occurring three times and one split. Of course New York fans will tell anybody that will listen; their team has won five of last seven series.

All the players also know it’s just not another series and guys like Mark Teixeira will feel the wrath of Boston fans, after shunning Boston’s advances, to wear the pinstripes. Both teams start the weekend tied for second place in the division behind Toronto. The Red Sox are the hotter team having won seven in a row and they are 43-15 (+20.8 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 5.2 or more runs a game like New York who is sorting out bullpen and a few spots in the starting rotation. They will have Jon Lester (1-2, 5.50 ERA) take the ball first. The left-hander fired seven shutout innings in last outing after a pair of shaky performances to start the year. Boston is a -135 money line favorite at most sportsbooks, with total Un9.5. Lester and BoSox are 21-4 at Fenway Park the last three seasons.

Joba Chamberlain (0-0, 5.06 ERA) has a pair of no-decisions, pitching well against Kansas City and was wild against Cleveland. Chamberlain has similar stuff to Lester, with mid-90s fastball and sharp slider and the Yanks are 9-4 when he starts for them.

Game 1 Edge: Red Sox

The second meeting will be a Fox afternoon affair, with a couple of old Florida teammates from 2003 World Series champion doing battle. The Yankees coming into the series had won three in a row and five of seven and trot out one of their high-priced acquisitions, A.J. Burnett (2-0, 3.20). After two crisp outings, Burnett was wild against Cleveland walking seven, however permitted just three runs in 6 1/3 innings. The right-hander hopes to benefit from Robinson Cano’s hot bat, which included 10-game hitting streak arriving in Bean-town. Burnett has enjoyed much success against Boston with 5-0 record and 2.56 ERA in eight career starts. Josh Beckett’s (2-1, 3.79) suspension moved him back one game. The Texas native has kept the ball in the yard, not allowing a home run and opponents are batting just .229 against his servings and he is 7-4 with a 5.33 ERA versus the Bronx Bombers. Both teams have performed well in Game 2 situations with New York 20-8 and Boston 17-8 when Beckett is starter.

Game 2 Edge: Yankees

To complete the series, it’s something old and something new, as 37-year old Andy Pettitte (2-0, 2.53) faces 24-year Juston Masterson (1-0, 3.18). Pettitte has not only given the Yankees wins, but saved the bullpen in his three starts, going at least seven innings each time in 2009. The cagy lefty has spotted his two-seam fastball expertly and his cutter has been almost un-hittable. After starting in the bullpen, the 6’6 Masterson made adjustment to starter Monday, picking up first win with 5 1/3 effective innings. He’s been very sharp with control, ringing up 10 strikeouts and three walks. In his brief career, opposing batters are hitting measly .221 against Masterson, while Pettitte is 6-2 in 13 career starts at Fenway.

Game 3 Edge: Yankees

These rivals have split last 18 contests the last two years in Boston with OVER 12-6. If the games continue to be played Over the total, this should favor Boston who has 2.49 bullpen ERA, compared to New York’s unsightly 6.00. Yet, this is still the Yankees and Red Sox, which suggests anything is possible, thus I’ll side with underdog New York whom I believe has better pitching matchup in last two games to win the series.

Betjamaica.com series odds: N.Y. Yankees +125, Boston -155

3DW Pick: Yankees

2009 Record – 1-1

Philadelphia and Houston in Monster Matchups

The 76ers and Rockets both made good on the proverbial “we’re just happy for split” statement to open their respective NBA series. Each did so in different, yet dramatic fashion and now they have opportunity to not only maintain homecourt advantage, but start placing themselves in position to possibly upset higher seeds in first round of playoff basketball.

Orlando at Philadelphia

The Sixers have covered both games in this series and they have proven unequivocally they can play with Orlando, in spite of closing the season so poorly. Philadelphia has shown if they double-down on Dwight Howard at just the right moment, they can limit his and Magic’s effectiveness in the half-court offense. Philadelphia has played with enough defensive energy to limit the effectiveness of Orlando guards and wing players for long stretches.

While it is evident Orlando has the better team; the Sixers have more athleticism and have used that to their advantage even after making bone-headed plays. Philly is less than intimidating 24-17 and 18-20-1 ATS at home and they are 11-22 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 99 or more points a game this season.

This is a young team that can be fueled by emotion, with Andre Iguodala and Thaddeus Young leading the way. They’ve learned in the first two games the Magic are not focused enough about playing hard for four quarters and can be had with steadier play. Orlando does present a different challenge on the road, where they are 27-14 SU and ATS. The Magic were not as magical at the end of the season in the bright blue uniforms, with .500 record in last ten tries.

Bookmaker.com has Philadelphia as 3.5-point home underdogs with a total of 191 and they are 10-3 ATS on the receiving end of 4.5 or fewer points at the Wachovia Center. Orlando is a slick 12-4 ATS in road games where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season, but just 4-9 ATS as favorites in last 13 contests.

One thing to watch for has been the bizarre behavior of Magic coach Stan Van Gundy's courtside manner. Van Gundy has been incredibly frustrated, visibly berating players, which isn’t the brightest idea come playoff time. (Maybe their was more to Pat Riley taking over in Miami when they won the title than we heard) His actions and wild-eyed looks bring to mind the crazed looks of former Dallas coach Avery Johnson in the finals against the Heat, which ultimately became his demise.

If the 76ers can get Orlando off their game and play shoddy defense, they’ll pull the upset and improve to 39-17 ATS versus teams who average seven or less steals a game. This contest will be on ESPN2 starting at 8:05 Eastern.

Portland at Houston

Houston governed the opener of the series and didn’t play especially well in the second game, but still lost by only four, 107-103. Portland made a number of fine adjustments, both physically and mentally to even up series at one.

The Blazers doubled Yao Ming more frequently, fronting him with Joel Przybilla and having backside support from Greg Oden. Though Ming said he expected such tactics, he didn’t respond well to it, with 11 points and eight rebounds, while getting into foul trouble.

It's a combination," Rockets coach Rick Adelman said of the problems getting Yao touches. "He has to find a way to get position better. He has to find a way to hold their people off. And we have to have patience to look for him. We ran some stuff and he came in the middle with a guy on his back and we chucked it up there." Houston has covered five of last six off a straight up defeat.

Portland also brought a more aggressive outlook and it especially paid off for its two best players. Guard Brandon Roy was almost unstoppable with 42 points and LaMarcus Aldridge had 27 points and 12 rebounds.

Now we know what we have to do," Aldridge said. "We have to be physical with these guys and play with confidence." The Blazers are 26-10 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season.

The chess match continues and it is Houston’s turn to make move. The effort will certainly have to be increase from Game 2, with Ming, Shane Battier and Luis Scola playing more like they did on the first contest. The Rockets are 19-10 ATS off one or more losses this season, winning by average of 7.3 points per game. They have to return to keeping Roy in virtual square-shaped defensive box on the floor, always having defender in his face and Scola has to reassert aggressiveness against Aldridge.

Houston’s a six-point favorite, with total of 185. The Rockets have won 10 of last 11 (5-6 ATS) at Toyota Center against Portland and this could be defensive tussle. The Trailblazers are 12-4 UNDER after a combined score of 205 points or more and the Rockets are 11-3 UNDER after allowing 105 points or more this season. This Western Conference confrontation begins at 9:35 Eastern on ESPN.

Lakers looking for killer instinct

The Los Angeles Lakers being up 2-0 in their series with Utah is hardly traumatizing, since you get the impression the Jazz coach Jerry Sloan probably believed a similar account was a foregone conclusion. What has Coach Phil Jackson, the folks at the Staples Center and the millions who have wagered on the Lakers concerned is the lack of “want to” to bury Utah and make a statement.

In the series opener, Kobe Bryant were near perfect is building a 62-40 halftime lead as 12.5-point home favorites. It would be expected Utah would show professional pride and at least make a run or two in the last 24 minutes and they did, before falling 113-100.

After the game, the Zen Master expressed his dissatisfaction with his team’s effort in the second half, being outscored 60-51, in terms even the common man would understand, "It wasn't a coach's delight, that's for sure," Jackson said.

The players took there coach’s words to heart in the next contest, for 12 minutes. Los Angeles played like the best team in basketball since center Moses Malone eloquently predicted his Philadelphia team would steamroll thru the postseason in “Fo, Fo, Fo”. The Lakers converted on 85.7 percent of shots launched (18 of 21) and immediately built 41-29 first quarter lead as six different gold-clad players scored.

From that point forward, the Lakers went from looking like NBA champions to like many who go out to eat and attend parties in La-La Land, a bit fake. Los Angeles was actually outscored by two points in the final three quarters and needed a late pulse, after blowing all but three points to the Jazz as 12.5-point favorites in 119-109 victory.

Jackson fell on his own sword after Game 2 taking the blame; however he can’t alter the thought process of grown men who believe they deserve a championship banner, instead of going out and earning it.

Maybe a hostile pro-Mormon crowd will stimulate the Lakers who were 29-12 and 22-18-1 ATS on the road. Possibly it will be more of challenge to face a desperate team, who knows the series is over for all practical purposes unless they win on the home court, where they were 33-8 and 22-19 ATS and are 28-13 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.

Coach Sloan has to cringe thinking back to his days as a NBA player when he was defensive maven, after watching his Utah team let the Lakers convert 55.6 and 60 percent of shot attempts in first two games. Playing before the home folks should ratchet up the defensive intensity for the Jazz, who are among the 14 teams all-time in the NBA playoffs that have come from behind down 2-0.

"Regardless of those last couple games, we're a lot better home team," Deron Williams said.
"They were supposed to win these two games. They did what they're supposed to do, so now we've got to go and do what we're supposed to do -- win at home and hopefully even it back up and come back out here with a chance to steal one again."

Los Angeles enters the game as 1.5-point favorites and the total is at a series high of 214 at Bookmaker.com. Bryant and his mates continue to bludgeon meager defensive teams and are 15-3 ATS in road games versus clubs that allow 46 percent or worse shooting percentage in the second half of the year over the last two seasons. When L.A. has the offense cranking, they are 14-3 OVER off two or more consecutive home wins this year.

Utah has to find a way to contain the Lakers and it won’t be easy having 4-14 spread record after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points. The Jazz will likely have to play better defense in the regard of creating turnovers that can lead to easy buckets to defeat L.A. and they are 15-4 OVER after allowing 110 points or more.

TNT will have Game 3 of the series at 10:35 Eastern, with the Jazz 5-3 and 4-3-1 ATS hosting the Lakers. It will be intriguing to see if Jackson can have his team compete for all 48 minutes, no matter the score.

Time for Thursday Action

If only in life we could two of three everyday. Yesterday raised our record to 19-12-2 and much of today’s baseball action is this afternoon. The Top System is confusing except for 38-5 record. The Top Trend also involves afternoon affair in Chicago. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday –The Denver Nuggets are pretty good basketball team. Can’t see series going more than five with New Orleans. Len Dykstra of the Mets and Phillies lives in pretend world if you read ESPN.com article.

Free Baseball System-1) Play On home favorites with a money line of -150 or more after three straight games where they committed no errors, starting a pitcher who was hit for five or more runs in his last two outings. If anyone wants to take a stab as to why this system is unreal 38-5, 88.4 percent, please do so. I found it at StatFox and the Phillies are the fit.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Carlos Zambrano and the Cubs are 13-3 as -151 to -200 favorites.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Kendall off of last night is backing the Pale Hose to cover the Birds.

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Trying to get over the Hump on Hump Day

Going to take a 1-1-1 day though easily could count the tie as a win as Cleveland was 11.5-point favorite most of the day, before going to 12 at the books I check. The 17-11-2 record still isn’t too shabby and we found a perfect Trend on the diamond tonight. Kendall hasn’t had his name mentioned lately and he has a Free Play in the big leagues. The Best System is in the NBA and is 82.8 percent in 29 plays. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – Missed free throws ruin a lot of bets. I had Portland -5.5 last night and they missed three free throws in the last 19 seconds causing a spread loss. The Tampa Bay Rays let Pat Burrell fly to Philadelphia to receive World Series ring. Burrell is just the fifth player in baseball history to win a championship and play for the opposing team the following season.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON any team after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after a combined score of 160 points or less. Since 2004 this system is 24-5 ATS, 82.8 percent and is squarely on the Miami Heat.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Joe Saunders and the Halos are perfect 13-0 against teams outscoring opponents by a half a run or more a game on the season since 2008 campaign began.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Our free pick just missed and Kendall has hit seven MLB favorites in a row and has the Braves as his top play.

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NBA Sunshine StateTeams in Peril

The Orlando Magic had built an 18-point lead on Philadelphia in the series opener and looked as relaxed and comfortable as riding “It’s a Small World” at nearby Disney World. Evidently, Orlando must have visions of Tomorrowland and started thinking about Game Two instead of finishing off the first four quarters. Well, quicker then the 13-story fall from the Twilight Zone Tower of Terror, Orlando was completely discombobulated and were upset by the 76ers 100-98 as 10-point home favorites.

Coming into the playoffs, whispers were being passed around like candy that the Magic had gone soft when they had a chance to take second seed in the East and lost four of last six games. Orlando’s collapse was virtually unforeseen since they were 48-4 this season when leading after three quarters. They also were 52-1 this season when leading with five minutes remaining and held a four point lead Sunday with that much time on the clock.

The Magic will have every reason to believe they should rebound and win next contest, since they are 13-2 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points and 18-6 against the spread if the defeat was six or less points. However, history and numbers crunching are cause from concern.

Start with Orlando might win this conflict, but it is bad omen to lose opening game, as they are 0-9 in series after falling in first contest. The Sixers were able to comeback because of a combination of getting hot from long range and hapless perimeter defense by Magic players.

Philly was the worst three-point shooting team in the NBA at 31.8 percent, however, faulty coverage late in the game saw the Sixers end up draining seven of 12 for the game. As poise-less coach Stan Van Gundy was pleading with his team to cover up in transition in the fourth quarter, it was too late and the black-clad 76er’s were brimming with confidence.

Oddsmakers at Betjamaica.com are not buying what Philly did and made them 10.5-point underdogs again with total of 193.5. You can’t argue, the Sixers are 4-12 ATS when playing against club with 70 percent or higher win percentage this season and the likelihood of Andre Iguodala and his teammates making that many three’s again and holding the Magic to 5-18 beyond the arc is foolish, right?

Further north in Georgia, Miami thought they were primed for big effort against division rival Atlanta. If South Beach is the haven for beautiful people to stroll along the beach, than the Heat looked like a couple of 300-pounders in thongs the way they played.

A friend of yours truly said Dwayne Wade and Joe Johnson shouldn’t be in the same conversation talking about elite guards in the NBA, and while this may be true over the long term, it wasn’t Sunday. Atlanta showed a complete disregard for the other Heat players and attacked Wade from every angle and he turned the ball over eight times, while making just over a third (8-21) of his attempts. Johnson looked much more comfortable in converting seven of 16 shots.

Miami scored 43 points the last three quarters on the way to 64 total and looked every bit as young a team as they are. “There is an element of unknown with this group," coach Erik Spoelstra said before the game. "None of us knows what to expect."

Basketball is a team game and most post-game comments by Miami players centered on “we didn’t do this” or “we didn’t do that”, yet the fact is each player has to accept accountability for dreadful individual performances. The Pendulum Theory is custom-made for Game Two; nonetheless, the Heat is 4-13 ATS revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more.

It’s not wise to presume Atlanta will letdown either. The Hawks were well-schooled to switch under on screens, leaving Wade few opportunities to burst to the rim. This was followed up by boxing D-Wade into areas, leaving few passing lanes open for him to find open teammates.

"I just thought tonight our focus was there from beginning all the way to the end. The defensive schemes were right on the money," said Hawks coach Mike Woodson. "I said from day one in training camp, the Boston Celtics taught us how to play Playoff basketball last year."

Atlanta raised their record at Phillips Arena to 32-10 (24-18 ATS) and they are 8-1 ATS in home games after allowing 85 points or less this season. The Hawks are five point favorites to extend series lead to 2-0 and have won five in a row at home against Miami (3-2 ATS).

The teams from the Sunshine State better shine or vacation will start early for these two NBA squads.

Royals up against Baseball System

The Kansas City Royals have taken last year’s end of the season and carried it over to a pretty good start in 2009 with 7-6 (+1.8 units) record. The offense hasn’t been overwhelming, ranked 21st, scoring 4.4 runs per game. However, the pitching has been quite good, allowing 3.5 RPG, which is second in the American League.

The Royals have a solid trio of starters in ace Gil Meche, Zack Greinke and Kyle Davies, but beyond those three, the starting pitching drops off like a baseball thrown off a cliff. Last evening was a perfect example, as the much-traveled Sidney Ponson was battered for six runs and eight hits, surrendering four walks in three and third innings to Cleveland. To the Royals credit, they never gave up and scored six runs in the final two innings to fall just short in 8-7 defeat.

Yesterday, Kansas City recalled Brian Bannister from Triple-A Omaha. The 28-year old right-hander started 59 games for the Royals over the past two seasons but didn’t make the team in spring training. A spot was found for him when Doug Waechter was placed on the DL. Bannister will get the nod in Game 2 and has pitched well against the Indians with 3-1 record and 1.91 ERA in five career appearances.

Cleveland will start their ace Cliff Lee (1-2, 6.75 ERA, 2.000 WHIP), who looked more like himself in last outing, giving up one run over six innings against New York. Lee is the current Cy Young holder in the American League, after 22-3 season and has held a mastery over Kansas City. The left-hander is 12-4, with a 4.47 ERA versus the Royals in 19 starts. Though Lee’s earned run average is pedestrian against K.C., his presence and poor Royals pitching has him on the receiving end of 5.9 runs per start in his career.

Cleveland (5-9, -3.7) is attempting to overcome doleful 1-7 start and has won four of six thanks to potent offense. The Tribe is scoring 6.5 runs per game and has averaged eight per game in last seven outings. Bookmaker.com has Cleveland as -190 money line favorites and they are backed with a long running system that has delivered a boatload of winners.

Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 after allowing eight runs or more against opponent after a combined score of 15 runs or more.

Over the last dozen years, this system is 210-52, 79.4 percent against the ML. The results have tended to be remarkably consistent with 32-8 (80 percent) mark over the last three years. The oddsmakers money line suggests the underdog should win about a third of the time and for the most part, these games haven’t even been close, with average score differential 2.4 runs per game.

Tonight, consider Cleveland with their ace on the hill, with the deck stacked in your favor.

Seeking Tuesday Betting Triumphs

Because of rain and not so hot information, we battled to have 1-0 Monday and moved to 16-10-1. The system will remain the same with slightly different twist to guess the year of the system started. Can you guess what year with yesterday’s and today’s clues? The Cavs and LeBron are featured in the Top Trend and Greg looks to build on hot streak with another Free winner. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – The Boston Celtics are in real trouble, made worse with Leon Powe done. Lefty Arthur Rhodes may be 100 and pitched for all 30 teams (modest exaggeration), but he can still get hitters out in the clutch.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON all favorites like the Yankees with a money line of -175 to -250, with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL), after a win by four runs or more. Somewhat similar to yesterday system in the regard the oddsmakers are leading us in certain direction despite contrarian information. This system is 92-20, 82.1 percent since Babyface and Eric Clapton won the Grammy for “Record of the Year” for - Change the World.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Cleveland Cavaliers are 13-1 ATS after leading their last three games by five or more points at the half this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Greg from the Left Coast Connection is 14-3 over the last nine days in all wagers, including yesterday’s winner and believes Portland will blaze a trail over Houston.

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Blazers poised for bounce back

Coach Nate McMillan knew the difference, evidently his team did not. The Portland coach saw his young charges become caught up in the moment and they never responded, in 108-81 hazing by Houston as playoff “freshmen”. Having one of the best home court advantages in the NBA in compiling 34-7 (26-15 ATS) record, the Trailblazers immediately surrendered hard fought edge and have to bounce back in Game Two or prospects for surviving the first round are dim.

Houston’s strategy of clamping down on Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge worked as they were combined 13-35 from the field and only Greg Oden was force on offense with 15 points, as Portland shot 41.7 percent from the floor. The Blazers shot the three-ball like they were basketball Luddites, clanging 10 of 11 from behind the arc, suffering their worst defeat of the season.

Portland is 16-6 ATS in home games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more and the coach and players are anxious to put this behind them. “There are two seasons - the regular season and the postseason," McMillan said. "We lost our first game of this season. They (the Rockets) have to win four. We'll go back to work (Sunday) and make some adjustments and get ready for Tuesday."

Brandon Roy said he needs more help from his teammates than he got Saturday night.

"I can't wait for Tuesday," Portland's all-star guard said. "At the same time, we're going to have to make some adjustments. You can't just say we're going to play better. They (the Rockets) knew their game plan. I kept telling guys, 'Don't let this break us.'

“It's our first (playoff) experience. We're trying to learn as much as we can, but we do need to play basketball for 48 minutes. We didn't do that tonight. Everybody has to bring it. We can't rely on one or two guys. We have to play better team basketball and play with a little more effort and sense of urgency."

Houston played with the poise of an experienced team, not being affected by raucous crowd to start the game. Coach Rick Adelman, a former Portland coach, deserves accolades for formulating superior game plan.

The Rockets plan was to create more space for point guard Aaron Brooks, especially off screen and rolls, allowing him to use his quickness and he responded with game high 27 points. Adelman also wisely used Luis Scola on offense. In the second half, when Portland would collapse on Yao Ming, Scola was positioned on the other side of the lane for baseline jump shots and he drilled seven of nine, for 19 total points. Scola wisely used his body to defend the quicker Aldridge and the Rockets improved to 5-2 ATS on the receiving end of 5.5 or more points since 2009 began.

Adelman has too many games under his coaching belt to honestly believe his team has gained a tremendous edge. "We've won one," Adelman said. "That's all it is, one game. The next game is going to be totally different. We have to respond better for that game than we did for this game. We're going to take (the Blazers') best shot."

The sciental wise bettor knows of the past travails concerning Houston, like 2-10 ATS record off a win by 15 or more points or 5-14 spread mark after playing as road underdog. This is in part why Betjamaica.com and other sportsbooks have toed the line at 5.5-points on Portland, with total at 184. The Blazers weren’t going to keep playing super basketball forever, coming into the series with six game winning streak and winners of 10 of 11. (Only loss to Houston if you prefer subtle irony)

The Blazers even with the loss are 12-3 ATS as favorites and are 22-9 UNDER in home games revenging a pair of losses where opponent scored 100 or more points. The Rockets have barely launched with 1-8 ATS record off an upset win as an underdog this season and are 12-4 OVER after a double digit triumph.

This 4vs5 match starts at 10 Eastern with Houston 6-1 ATS in last seven meetings.

Wagering on division leaders to win

The Los Angeles Dodgers were picked by most experts to win the National League West and to date they have not disappointed with 10-3 start. The Toronto Blue Jays were presumed to be about as relevant as a Hummer and instead has been nearly as big a surprise as Susan Boyle in taking the lead position in the American League East, ahead of the likely clubs picked to finish ahead of them. The Dodgers and Blue Jays start new series’ and look to improve leads.

Toronto (10-4, +6.2 units) was supposed to have Roy Halladay (3-0, 3.00 ERA, 1.048 WHIP) and little else for starting pitchers, due to injuries. Instead, manager Cito Gaston has been able to piece together a pitching staff and last year’s dormant offense has exploded.

The Blue Jays are fourth in runs allowed in the American League at 4.1 per game, as opponents are hitting just .233 (second in baseball) against them. Offensively, Toronto is tearing the cover off the ball, scoring 6.2 runs per game (4th), thanks to ranking third in home runs with 22. This hasn’t been by accident either, as they lead the major leagues in total bases and are the best hitting team in the AL at .290.

This all makes Halladay’s job easier, as he has been sharp to start the year with 17 strikeouts and only three walks in 21 innings. The Jays are 87-39 (+27.7 Units) against the money line in home games when he takes the ball and Bookmaker.com acknowledges this making Toronto a -215 ML favorite with total Un8.5 against Texas (5-7, -2.9 units).

The Rangers were expected to score runs and they have and the pitching staff was believed to be a problem and it is. Texas leads the majors in scoring and home runs and its bullpen has ERA of 7.45 (gulp), with not many places to turn. As one might expect, the Rangers are 9-2-1 OVER to start 2009 and 13-2 OVER in road games with a struggling bullpen whose WHIP is over 1.750 the last 10 games. Amazingly, Texas is 13-2 (+16.1 Units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 and Brandon McCarthy (1-0, 4.91, 1.455) will try to trade pitches with Halladay.

As impressive as Toronto has been, the Dodgers (+7 units) have been even more so. Los Angeles leads baseball with a .302 batting average and is the top scoring club in the senior circuit at 6.3 RPG. This offensive outburst hasn’t been about Manny Ramirez, more about how others have watched him prepare.

Andre Either was named the NL player of the week after hitting .391 with four homers and 12 RBIs in his last six games, while 2B Orlando Hudson is 13-for-24 (.542) with five RBIs during the same span. For good measure, centerfielder Matt Kemp has hit safely in all 13 games, batting .383 with three homers and 14 RBIs.

While many concerns have been raised about Dodgers starting pitchers being too young to possibly survive a whole season, they have plenty of strength in the early going with team ERA of 3.16 (4th) and opposing hitters right at the Mendoza line at .200.

Clayton Kershaw (0-0, 1.50, 0.667) is off borderline historic performance in his last start, when he struck out 13 Giants in seven innings. The 13 punchouts by the 21-year old lefty is the most by a young Dodger pitcher since a 19-year named Sandy Koufax did the same almost 54 years ago.

The Dodgers make their first trip out of the Pacific Time Zone to Houston (4-9, -5.6). The Astros have a number of veteran players who aren’t hitting, as three runs per game and .250 BA proves. L.A. is 30-14 against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse and is a -161 favorite with total at 9.5.

Houston might be 10-0 UNDER off a one run loss versus a division rival over the last two seasons, however they haven’t started Russ Ortiz (0-0 6.23, 1.839) in next game, who missed all of last year with arm injury and hasn’t been effective big league pitcher in years.

About the only bad thing you can come up with on the Dodgers is the law of averages catching up to them. They have won eight straight and manager Joe Torre is 11-16 after eight or more consecutive wins in all games he has managed since 1997.

Know all your Betting Terms

Merriam-Webster’s Dictionary is one of the handiest tools to have if you write stories for a living. Within its confines are words none of us have heard of along with many that are very familiar, which we use every day. Over the last week, the dictionary has come in quite handy to describe several situations that have made life better or worse for the sports bettor.

Choke (noun) –If you happened to make series bets or individual game wagers on San Jose or Washington in hockey, you are gagging as much as the teams you placed them on. The Sharks in particular are appalling, being well known for postseason failures, which are further enhanced by having the best record during the regular season in 2008-09. Washington was supposed to be offensive juggernaut finishing third in the NHL in scoring. Thus far the mighty Caps have four goals in two games.

Elimination (n) –Calgary, Montreal, St. Louis, Columbus and the aforementioned other two NHL teams are on the brink, without a win the Stanley Cup playoffs. Less than 13 percent of the time, teams down 0-2 have come back to win series this time of year. Only twice in NHL history has a team comeback to win a series down 3-0, the last time was 33 years ago.

Opportunistic (adjective) – The Florida Marlins have set blistering pace coming out of the gate the Kentucky Derby champion would be proud of. The Marlins have four come from behind wins in first dozen played, including three in the ninth inning to tie the game or go ahead, which they eventually won. For backers of Florida, another word comes to mind in what appeared to be glum betting situations, euphoria.

Illusion (n) – As of today, Toronto, Seattle, Kansas City and Florida (to a lesser degree) are all in first place. If one could make such a wager, it would not be a great idea to bet them to be there on May 20.

Pinnacle (n) – The San Diego Padres are either right with or ahead of the Marlins for the biggest surprises in baseball to start the season. The Padres have been the second best in baseball at +7.7 units of profit; however NOBODY expects them to remain anywhere close to where they are as the season continues. They are 10th in runs allowed thanks to the entire pitching staff throwing unbelievably. Nevertheless, beyond Jake Peavy and Chris Young, the starting staff in more unknown than the cast of “Big Bang Theory”. Heath Bell has been terrific as closer, but will he be able to stay at same apex later in the season? Even the Padres radio announcers have said David Eckstein is the team MVP to start the year. That’s not good!

Luscious (adj)- Watching the Cleveland Indians this spring, it was obvious they were going to hit and score a voluminous number of runs. They hung crooked numbers on the Yankees (22) and are among the highest scoring teams early, with 9-3-1 Over record. The Tribe could be top totals play because the pitching staff looks like they can match the offense run for run.

Miscalculation- (n) The New York Yankees ownership spent 1.5 billion dollar to replicate the old Yankees Stadium visually when you walked towards your seat. They tried to gouge the public with prices and have received a fair amount of backlash. By all accounts the park is a sight to behold, but one thing the management didn’t count on was the configuration being inadequate. Granted, the Bronx Bombers and Cleveland have bountiful long ball hitters, but 20 home runs in four-game series, all of the sudden this might have been The House Ruth REALLY wanted to build. Exactly 70 percent left the yard to right field, which is the prevailing wind off the nearby Harlem River and the new joint is not equipped to curtail it.

The other problem is high priced free agents CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, along with late signee Andy Pettitte could have gone to Colorado, Philadelphia or Texas if they wanted to carry around ERA of 5. It’s early, but it is worth watching.

Dialing up another Monday

Good comeback with 2-1 day, taking 3Daily Winners to 15-10-1 the last nine days. Today is a really weird day for trends, what I mean is many overlap. For example, the Chicago Bulls are 13-3 ATS in the second half against teams with winning records yet are 7-21 ATS off a road upset. The best one I could find doesn’t even impress me given the pitching matchup, but if you like Colorado, you’re good. Actually the best trend involved playing against Baltimore, but it was too late to post. The Best System is the televised MLB game and is 82.1 percent. I feel for Jason who went 6-1 in the NBA, but missed on Orlando here, which brings us to Greg for today’s Free Play. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – You have to finish playoff games. Orlando cost me and many others going thru the motions after building 18-point lead. This wasn’t the only game like this, however it hurt. Seeing Toronto, Kansas City, Seattle and Florida atop the standings in their respective divisions only speaks to the absurdity of getting too excited about baseball teams until Memorial Day. If you live in San Diego, let me know who the lead announcer is on the Padres radio games and what you think of him. The dude talks a mile a minute and though is passionate, is tough to listen to in my opinion.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON all favorites like the Yankees with a money line of -175 to -250, with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL), after a win by four runs or more. Somewhat similar to yesterday system in the regard the oddsmakers are leading us in certain direction despite contrarian information. This system is 92-20, 82.1 percent since the spacecraft Pathfinder landed on Mars to explore.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Arizona has started the year 2-8 as a favorite.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Greg from the Left Coast Connection is 12-3 over the last eight days in all wagers and bets the San Antonio Spurs bounce back.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

Could Celtics and Spurs really lose again?

The NBA playoffs started off with a shocker Saturday afternoon and were later followed by another only because of the circumstances. Could Boston or San Antonio really be in danger of losing two home games to open series and have to travel into enemy territory search for two wins? Based on opening game performances, the answer is yes, but will bettors take the line-makers bait on new numbers?

Coach Doc Rivers saw early two signs about his team in 105-103 overtime loss he didn’t like, the first was lack of defensive energy and the other was his players making personal decisions about Kevin Garnett’s absence.

"It just looked like everybody decided that they were going to be 'the guy' tonight. They were going to, you know, replace Kevin for whatever reason," Rivers said. "And then all of a sudden we got into a fight. And one thing I'd say about our guys, they join in. But, at home, you're supposed to start it."

The Celtics work better on offense when they move the ball and don’t dribble just for the sake of it. Chicago is no defensive juggernaut, especially on the road, where they allow 104.7 points per game on 46 percent shooting. Boston shot 39.4 percent in 53 minutes of basketball at home and will have to quickly refocus and is 17-7 ATS after a loss by six or less points.

If there is any question who the next great point guard in the NBA will be, the speculation has ended. Derrick Rose’s 36 points tied a NBA playoff record for points scored, previously held by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and he also dished out 11 assists. That was the most points scored by a Chicago Bulls player in the postseason since that Jordan fellow was in the Windy City.

The win raised the Bulls record to 13-3 ATS playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. Oddsmakers refused to act positively or negatively against the spread and Bookmaker.com has Chicago receiving eight points. The total is down considerably from the last contest to 196 from 199. Boston is 31-13 ATS revenging a home loss and 11-3 OVER in home games where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season. Chicago has not flourished in this spot with 7-21 ATS record off an upset win and are 14-6 OVER as an underdog.

Out west, early in the second quarter in San Antonio, it looked like the Spurs were going to hand Dallas its 10th consecutive road playoff loss. Instead, the Spurs started playing defense like the Mavericks usually do and they squandered the lead and the game in 105-97 shocking loss. What was particularly appalling to Spurs backers, who had given the four points, was the ease in which Dallas scored. Led by gutty Josh Howard’s 25 points, the Mavs scored 60 points in the second half and shot 57.9 percent in the final 12 minutes to salt Game 1 away. The underdog is now 18-6 ATS when these teams meet.

Even though fans might be a little nervous, don’t expect a veteran Spurs team’s team to buckle. We've been here before," Spurs forward Tim Duncan said after scoring 27 points. "But it's a big loss at home for us." San Antonio is 13-3 ATS after surrendering 100 or more points and oddsmakers like their chances to even up the series.

The Spurs are listed as 5.5-point favorites, up a point and a half, with the total also rising to 189. Coach Greg Popovich usually has his team turn up defensive intensity with such a contest and they are 21-7 UNDER when trailing in a series, though brutal 2-9 ATS at the AT&T Center in last 11 outings. Dallas raised record to 16-5 ATS as postseason underdog with its opening game win and is 5-1 OVER in same role.

This NBA doubleheader starts at 7:05 Eastern on TNT with two home teams in desperate need of W.

Putting on Sunday Best

Suffered our first losing day in over a week, however still respectable 13-9-1 over eight days. Our Best System won on Saturday and we come right back with another that an outstanding 87.2 percent. Jason had a splendid day in the NBA and offers his top play of the weekend. Does 18-3 angle in MLB work for you? Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – It looks like it’s just a matter of time before Derrick Rose is the best point guard in the NBA. Also, it doesn’t pay to not pull the trigger; I talked myself out of taking Portland yesterday. To borrow from Yogi Berra, when your teams don’t score in baseball (Seattle, Texas), it’s not easy to win games.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 like the Halos, allowing 5.2 or more runs a game on the season (AL) against a team being outscored by opponents by one or more runs per game on the season. This system is rather easy to understand since if a team is being outscored by that much and is still favored, the oddsmakers are telling us something. A record of 34-5, 87.2 percent also tell its own story.

Free Baseball Trend -2) John Lester and the Red Sox are 18-3 against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last three seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Jason of the Left Coast Connection hit all four NBA games yesterday, but his biggest play of the weekend is on Orlando.

Day 2 of NBA Playoff Hoops

The second day of the postseason gets underway with another four-pack of first round games. If you thought yesterday’s games were difficult to pick, todays might even be worse with teams like Utah, Philadelphia and New Orleans limping worse coming into the playoffs than Martin Crane, “Frasier’s” dad. The Lakers are reportedly on a mission and Orlando and Denver has something to prove besides the fact they had an exceptional regular season record.

Utah at L.A. Lakers 3:05 E ABC

On March 23, the Utah Jazz had just won their third game in a row against Houston and was playing their best defense of the season, looking primed for playoff push. Since that game, Jazz has hit mostly flat notes with 4-8 record (2-10 ATS) and the defense vanished. On the season, Utah capitulated 100.9 points per game, in their last dozen, a whopping 110 PPG. With this kind of effort, having to face the highest scoring team that made the postseason, is like the Guns and Roses album, “Appetite for Destruction”. The Lakers are 11.5-point favorites and Utah is 7-16 ATS as road underdogs. Coach Phil Jackson has to find ways to get Lamar Odom, Jordan Farmar and Sasha Vujacic back in groove physically and mentally, before the competition picks up. Los Angeles has won nine in a row at the Staples Center with 7-1-1 spread record over Utah.

Philadelphia at Orlando 5:35 E TNT

On paper, this doesn’t look like much of a series. Orlando swept Philadelphia 3-0 (though only one game was by double digits) this season and the Magic have won last four games at Amway Arena by 11.5 points per game. The Sixers’ offer little help from the perimeter and could use binoculars, ranked dead last in the NBA in three-point shooting at 31.8 percent. Orlando has crushed teams that shoot below 33 percent from behind the arc with 10-1 ATS record, with average margin of victory 15.6 points per game. For Philly, at least they made it. The 76ers have a dramatic edge in quickness and speed and must play at faster pace and create turnovers for easy baskets. Betjamaica.com has Philadelphia as 9.5-point underdogs with total of 190.5 and they are 6-2 ATS in 5-10-point range receiving points.

Miami at Atlanta 8:05 E TNT

Many of the other series have aspects that point to very specific things occurring one way or the other. This series is absolutely up for grabs, with the team that can play under control and harness emotions your winner. Atlanta has better players who are wilder and can act crazier than Hulk Hogan daydreaming about O.J. The Hawks Josh Smith is either really good or no-show and that is from quarter to quarter. Mike Bibby can make three’s and turn the ball over six times. Atlanta won 31 of 41 home games and was 10-4 ATS in most recent home chalk showings. No worries about Dwayne Wade, the dude is rock solid. Jermaine O’Neal used to be force within 15-feet of the basket, but injury and age have deteriorated his skills to the point of just serviceable. Michael Beasley really came on late in the year, but he plays defense like the man he is guarding has a rash. Miami is catching five-points and is 10-20 ATS versus teams who jack-up 18 or more three-point shots a game this season.

New Orleans at Denver 10:35 E TNT

Denver had a special regular season tying the franchise record for wins at 54. Though the Nuggets are merely average defensively at 100.9 points per game conceded, they make plays and have the offensive capabilities of laying out an opponent that has problems scoring like New Orleans. Denver is favored by six-points and that is as unsettling as Joaquin Phoenix as a rap singer. The Nuggets have crumbled come playoff time with wretched 2-16 and 3-15 ATS playoff record. New Orleans had a chance for fourth seed, but 2-6 (3-5 ATS) record in last eight contests lowered them to seventh slot. Chris Paul and David West must have Peja Stojakovic find the range against a mercurial Nuggets perimeter defense. The Hornets can sting Denver by creating turnovers and protecting the ball themselves. New Orleans has covered seven of last nine in the Mile High City.