Betting Options for NBA Draft

It’s nothing short of amazing how drafts in various sports have become a cottage industry onto themselves. The next one of importance is in the NBA. The fine folks of ESPN will have enough visible personnel during its broadcast of who is going where in professional basketball, they could invade Malta. They will tell the story of what happens, while you can turn into recreational sports bettor and play along making prop bets on the various happenings. Here’s hoping Jay Bilas and Dick Vitale have another on-screen argument and what to look for from the draft.

Most NBA experts that follow the draft believe this could be one of the craziest and most entertaining nights of professional basketball, without one center jump. Speaking to an avid NBA bettor and one who follows the game 24/7, he points to organizational philosophies making the difference. “One player can turn a NBA franchise around. The Bulls took Derrick Rose, in the playoffs with brighter future. It comes down to front office types making shrewd decisions. Take the right player, fortunes will rise; take the wrong player, Hello lottery again.”

One wretched franchise that can change what has become a way of life is the Los Angeles Clippers. They have the first pick and the world expects them to take Blake Griffin. He has the look and determination of a player who COULD (not will) lead the Clips out of the NBA abyss. The Clippers might be wise to sign his brother Taylor as free agent and keep him on the team as 12th man and have Blake be happier to start his NBA career.

From here, the NBA water gets a littler murky, though certain things should happen. (Picks based on current slots as of writing)

Player to get Drafted First from DiamondSportsbook.com

Hasheem Thabeet -350
James Harden +225

This is not as easy as it looks since Memphis would prefer to move out of No. 2 slot. Thabeet is the obvious choice to build with A.J. Mayo and Rudy Gay, however questions surround how good a defender and rebounder he will be a next level. Harden is actually a more proven commodity, but might be too similar to Mayo and appears to have less upside than Thabeet. The Grizzlies want to believe they are getting the real deal and not taking the next Andrew Bogut. Play Thabeet.

Stephen Curry -200
Johnny Flynn +155

Curry is the correct choice; nevertheless, as mentioned, different front offices are not always in sync. Sacramento has the fourth pick and wants a point guard. Depending on the day, time or if the humidity is a little higher in Sac-Town, the Kings have professed to like Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holiday, Flynn and Brandon Jennings name has started popping up. In the end, Sacramento takes Evans based on last impression and Curry goes to Minnesota, ahead of Flynn.

Tyler Hansbrough -300
Chase Budinger +200

Going to play the dog here with Budinger and here’s why. When it comes down to it, Hansbrough’s lack of athletic ability will scare teams off, in spite of toughness which many teams could use. (I’m hoping Charlotte doesn’t screw this up) The absolute perfect place for Hansbrough to flourish to start professional career is Utah, which has 20th pick. Though Budinger isn’t all that well liked with many GM’s believing he is nearly finished product, the Philadelphia 76ers need players that can shoot, which is the former volleyball player’s greatest strength. Granted, Philly needs a point guard for aging before your eyes Andre Miller at No. 17, nonetheless having player off the bench to score immediately is more pressing need.

Wayne Ellington -140
DaJaun Summers Even

This is a hard play to make, since it becomes about need. A team like Atlanta could use another outside shooter, which Ellington is. Though there are reservations about his ability to put the ball on the deck and create, as a spot-up shooter, as good as you will find in the draft. Summers is a fit for a team like Memphis looking for size and is interchangeable at three or four spot. A smallish play on Ellington because he can make shots and Summers has been more unreliable.

Brandon Jennings -110
Jrue Holiday -130

Any NBA General Manager only has to think back to Sebastian Telfair, when considering Brandon Jennings. If I lose this wager, will call up offending team and ask them to bet me double or nothing which player has better NBA career.

Darren Collison (UCLA) - When Will He be Drafted (1st or 2nd Round)

First –Even
Second -140

Collison goes in the first round, with Oklahoma City and Portland as possible destinations. I would shocked if the Lakers took him at #29 since they already have one UCLA point guard with marginal ability in Jordan Farmar.

DeJuan Blair (Pittsburgh) - Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)

1 -14th choice -160
15th or later +120

Though his knees are a concern to potential suitors, Blair’s crew has supplied the right information about his health and his stock has risen as much as anyone’s. Top 14 choices New Jersey and Indiana make the most sense for the big man. Bet the -160.

Gerald Henderson (Duke) - Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)

1 -14th choice -170
15th or later +130

Henderson got better each season at Duke, proving he’s willing to do what it takes to be a pro. With too many attitude players with potentially bigger upsides having egos already that of superstar, having the chance to pick more level-headed player has to make lottery teams like Toronto or Charlotte pleased. Take the -170.

Ty Lawson (North Carolina) - Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)

1 -14th choice +120
15th or later -160

Lawson could go to Pacers early, but his lack of size and potential problematic ability to find clear shots have him falling out of the first 14 selections.

DeMar DeRozan (USC) - Over/Under Draft Position

Over 10.5 -Even
Under 10.5 -140

This is the perfect example why GM’s and coaches can’t sleep nights. DeRozan has Top 5 ability, nobody questions that. At USC as a freshman, he showed his brilliance and lack of maturity almost evenly. There are genuine concerns about his true readiness at this level. Toronto at No.9 is the team most in need of his skills, however, DeRozan has made it known he’s not cool about the idea of playing north of the border. Take the Over.

Number of North Carolina players chosen in first round

One - +600
Two - +200
Three – minus 200
Four - +800

The Tar Heels are the national champions and will get the respect they likely deserve and will have three players chosen in the first round, all who have been mentioned already, leaving no need to be redundant as to who they are.

Tuesday's Top Plays

Baltimore’s extra inning loss gave us 1-2 day and moved record to 114-78-3 over the last two and half months. The Top Trend was our lone winner and we have a perfect one going tonight down in Houston. Kendall makes a return visit on a nice run and offers his Best Bet. The Best System is one of the best all season at 39-2, however a word of caution does creep up. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – The Texas Rangers will eventually hit again, but check out some of the numbers below in article about them. I saw them last night and Texas hitters might be pressing, because the Arizona scouting report was obvious, with two strikes throw high heat, they will swing. The Rangers Matt Harrison looked very hittable and was, and Justin Upton needs to lose 15 pounds, take his fielding seriously and the guy could be one of the top outfielders in baseball.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like Texas with a money line of +150 or more, batting .200 or worse over their last three games, against opponent with a potent starting pitcher with WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. This system rocks at 39-2, 95.1 percent. (Note- Texas and Vicente Padilla are 10-0 when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last two seasons)

Free Baseball Trend -2) Roy Oswalt and Houston are 10-0 when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38 to 46%) since last season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Kendall crops up with +9 units the last three days of wagering and views Florida as top choice.

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What College Football Teams have Guts?

With the advent of the 12th game added to college football schedule in 2006, it was reported by the NCAA, this was designed to create more interesting non-conference conflicts. Well, like any government bureaucracy, the plan was short-sighted, not thought all the way through and turns out to be nothing like it was intended to be. Most BCS universities used this opportunity to add a home game as revenue builder and brushed up on geography, trying to Google locations of FCS schools that could use cold hard cash and would not mind trading a loss for green-backs.

These FCS schools quickly passed a class in economics, no longer settling for a quarter of a million dollars to get beat, raising the price to current levels of $500,000 to close seven digits for the right of bigger schools to build winning records.

This does not go on at every large university thankfully. There are those who have the courage to play home and home with another big program and try and have the team prepared for conference action. They will still play a cream-puff, but at least it doesn’t look like a whole box of Dunkin Donuts, like many other schools.

Here is a review of the schools that have courage and a couple that are cowardly lions. (Any nicknames with lions is purely coincidental)

Georgia and LSU

Mark Richt works well with his athletic director to schedule the right combination. You don’t have to play USC and Ohio State every year in non-conference action, however, find the right above average program that will be tough competition and have the interest of the local fans to come out and watch with a purpose. Georgia opens at Oklahoma State and you can ask Oklahoma and Texas how much fun Stillwater can be to play as a highly ranked team. The Bulldogs have return match in Athens against Arizona State and closes the season as per usual, with in-state rival Georgia Tech, this year in Atlanta. Nobody will begrudge Georgia hosting Tennessee Tech, as a doughnut game between Florida and Auburn.

Contrast Georgia’s slate with that of LSU. It’s not the Tigers fault Washington is moribund, it just worked out that way for the season opener on the road. In their remaining three non-SEC contests, LSU doesn’t even leave the state of Louisiana. The Tigers play Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana Tech and Tulane at Tiger Stadium. And please don’t send email suggesting LSU wants to promote football in the Bayou, nobody is buying it.

Virginia Tech

Someday coach Frank Beamer will retire and fans of college football will be poorer because of it. Beamer will play anyone anywhere, as long as they will visit Blacksburg. No big time program has played as often on Thursday’s, trying to promote what they have going and build on winning tradition. This season, Beamer takes the Hokies down to Atlanta for a beauty against Alabama on Sept. 5. Two weeks later, Nebraska arrives at Lane Stadium and they will have revenge on their minds from last year against East Carolina at home on the first Thursday of November. Even Marshall is a representative opponent.

Florida State

Bobby Bowden is the modern version of building a program from scratch and playing anyone wherever, which he started doing 34 years ago in Tallahassee. After getting away from his roots for a few years earlier this decade, Florida State is getting back to what it used to do. On Sept. 19, the Seminoles will make treacherous trip to Provo, to face BYU. Florida State has more athletes than BYU, nevertheless, the Cougars passing game could be equalizer. Of course defending national champs Florida will close the regular season, but kudos to FSU for scheduling South Florida. It’s not a gimme, as the Bulls have talent and they have plenty of players that Florida State probably never recruited, thus will be motivated to prove Bowden and his team they made mistake.

Miami- Florida

Head coach Randy Shannon is in his third year, trying to rebuild the Hurricanes program back to past glories. Similar to LSU, Miami never leaves Florida for its four non-conference games, with a sharp contrast in quality and whereabouts. The AD didn’t do Shannon any favors, scheduling Oklahoma on Oct. 3, right after encounter at Virginia Tech. The following week they have Florida A&M coming into Landshark Stadium. What separates the Miami from LSU, they go right into the eye of the hurricane so to speak with road challenges at Central and South Florida.

BYU

The Cougars will be more than ready for Mountain West Conference play in 2009. BYU will travel to Arlington, Texas, to play in Jerry Jones new palace against Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford and Oklahoma in season opener. This is followed by another road excursion to Tulane, before heading home to prepare for Florida State. That is ambitious start for the Cougs, who are preseason MWC favorites.

Houston and Rice

It’s not easy playing in a non-BCS conference, since finding games means traveling for the most part. This is true for Conference USA favorite Houston, who had to make one-sided deal with Oklahoma State and returns to Stillwater for second straight year. The Cougars will at least have Texas Tech at Robertson Stadium on Sept. 26. Following that battle, Houston has three straight road games, with the middle one at Mississippi State.

Rice is off rewarding 10-3 campaign and Texas Bowl rout of Western Michigan. The Owls suffered major losses on offense, which included QB Chase Clement and receiver Jarett Dillard. Having September road games versus Texas Tech and Oklahoma State will test mettle early, with Vanderbilt home game to follow. Later in the middle of October, it’s off to face a good East Carolina club. Nothing easy for Rice this season.

Illinois

The Fighting Illini’s non-Big Ten schedule isn’t so pressing, as it is unusual. This will be the third consecutive year Illinois opens with Missouri, which hasn’t worked out well for coach Ron Zook trying to get off to fast start with a pair of defeats. Illinois State makes the journey south to Champaign for next game and home opener for Illinois. Because the Big Ten slate has the Illini playing at Ohio State, home to Penn State and Michigan State in first three affairs starting Sept. 26, they made Sept. 19 an open date. How the Zookers decided to play the rest of non-conference games was wait until the Big Ten was over, take a bye week and play at Cincinnati the day after Thanksgiving and have Fresno State visit in December to finish the year. Certainly creative, especially for the Big Ten.

Penn State

Joe Paterno has been at Penn State forever, or so it seems. Paterno earlier this year was lobbying for the Big Ten to add a twelfth team to the league and wasn’t shy about his feelings in saying he didn’t want Notre Dame, when Pittsburgh or Syracuse would do fine in his mind. Of course Jo Pa wouldn’t want to do what the Pac-10 did in adding ninth conference game, not when you can schedule Akron, the Orangemen, Temple and Eastern Illinois all at Beaver Stadium.

Texas batters have Rangers up against Rough System

Over the years, the best baseball played in the state of Texas has in been in Austin at the University of Texas, who plays in tonight’s College World Series championship game. The Texas Rangers have long been known for something also, hitting the ball and not winning many games. The Rangers organization has never been able to develop pitchers, thus having everyday hitters has been their best road to what success they have enjoyed.

This season, with a better bullpen and change in pitching philosophy, Texas has spent the vast majority of the time in first place in the American League West by themselves, until know. Having lost five in a row and nine of last 14, the Rangers have been caught by favored Los Angeles. To the casual baseball observer, one would expect another collapse of Texas pitching to be the culprit; however this is not the case at the present time, as the Rangers bats have gone uncommonly quiet.

In their current batting slump, Texas is hitting below .250 as a team, scoring as many as six runs only twice and averaging 2.64 runs per game. Though management is saying they are not concerned per se, there are troubling signs.

“Obviously we’ve hit a speed bump and the players know that,” general manager Jon Daniels told the Rangers’ official Web site. “But I’d much rather talk about an offensive slump than the pitching issues we’ve had to deal with in the past.”

In looking at Lone Star Ball blog, we find a series of Rangers woes when it comes to hitting.
In the American League, Texas has the highest percentage of swings and misses at 20 percent. The Rangers are last in pitches taken for strikes at 24 percent. Texas batters swing at 48 percent of the pitches they see, which is the highest in the AL, with first place Boston taking hacks the fewest amount of times at 41 percent. The Rangers only make contact 74 percent of the time, which is again dead last.

The pitching axiom of throwing first pitch strike is much easier against Texas, since they swing at one-third of these pitches. Consider Tampa Bay is the second most impatient team to swing the bat on the first pitch at 28 percent and doing the math you have a difference of almost 18 percent between first and second positions, which is an enormous gap.

Last night pitcher Max Scherzer of Arizona was able to strikeout seven Texas hitters in six innings, by pitching up the ladder to Rangers hitters. (With each strike pitching higher in the zone) With how undisciplined Texas hitters are right now, six of the seven pitches that resulted in K’s would have been balls with more patience.

There task becomes a lot whole more difficult this evening facing Dan Haren (6-4, 2.23 ERA, 0.822 WHIP). Haren would have much better record be it for more run support and is 11-2 with a 2.90 ERA in his career in interleague play, including 8-0 with a 2.57 ERA in his last nine outings. Haren has been close to un-hittable in last five starts, with a 3-0 record and silly 1.66 ERA.

This places Texas in a conundrum, going up against a system that reads this way:

Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more, who are batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a hot starting pitcher, with WHIP or 1.000 or less over his last five starts.

With Haren posting 96 strikeouts in 101 innings, the free-swinging Rangers might cool off the surroundings of the 100+ degrees heat in downtown Phoenix, providing natural wind flow. This system is 76-13, 85.4 percent since 2004. Haren is 22-7 in June starts (Teams Record) in his career and is 22-8 UNDER in home games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Arizona as -175 money line favorites with the total Ov8. Sure the Rangers miss Josh Hamilton’s bat in the lineup, but what they miss more is plate discipline, after leading the AL in contact on percentage of swings in 2008.

Let's make it a Terrific Tuesday

After a couple of mediocre days, get back in the game with 2-0 day. The Left Coast Connection has another Free consensus play and the Red Sox play a certain way with a day off in today’s Top Trend. The Best System is special at 86 percent in interleague action. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday - Four Atlanta pitchers combined to blank the Chicago Cubs on Monday night, allowing 10 hits, all of them singles. That's not your typical recipe for a shutout. It was only the second time in the last 50 seasons that the Braves posted a shutout while giving up at least 10 hits but none for extra bases. The other one was a complete-game 10-hitter by Carl Morton against the Astros in 1973.

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON any team after five or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two marginal losing teams, which fall into 46 to 49 percent range. This superb system is 37-6, 86 percent and says to support Baltimore tonight.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Boston Red Sox are 9-0 after a day off in 2009.

Free Baseball Selection -3) We have another LCC consensus play, with nine members on Seattle and zero liking San Diego’s chances.

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Can you trust these money-making baseball hurlers?

Each baseball season, we learn by following who are the best pitchers in baseball. We’ve become conditioned to look for names like Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum, C.C. Sabathia and others. Most years, pitchers targeted for greatness also put it all together and this year we have seen Zack Greinke, Chad Billingsley and Dan Haren to name a few become dominate, with bright futures ahead of them.

With success come overvalued money lines, as oddsmakers smell opportunity and will make sports bettors pay to play on their favorite pitchers with proven track records. A big time pitcher like Halladay has 10-1 record and Toronto has won 10 of his 14 starts, yet baseball bettors have walked away with a mere +2.7 units of profit backing the Blue Jays chucker.

A far simpler method of seeking tidy sums of money is to follow what pitchers have brought in the most money. For example, does it make sense to take the Top 5 pitchers in units won and bet those toeing the rubber and their respective team’s until they prove they are not worthy of our money? Or are these pitchers such a crap shoot, that from start to start they are unpredictable as to what type of outcome they will provide?

Here is a look at the best five pitchers in the game and what their prospects are in terms of future playability.

At the ripe old age of 29, Matt Palmer (6-1, 8-2 team record, +9.1 units) made his way onto major league roster in San Francisco and started three games for Giants with 0-2 record and ERA of 8.53 last season. Palmer made his way south to join the Los Angeles Angels and was ticketed for more minor league duty. The Angels pitching staff was a quandary in the spring and Palmer showed enough to be a starter. Working with pitching coach John Butcher, Palmer became more consistent in throwing strikes and has been hitting his spots while changing speeds.

Palmer has kept the Halos in games and has been the beneficiary of good offensive outings, as Los Angeles has scored four or more runs in all but one of his starts. Palmer has been up to the pitching challenge, having faced the ace of opposing team in seven of his 10 starts. You can’t help but wonder if the right-hander is enjoying his proverbial 15 minutes of fame. Right-hand hitters are batting just .223 against him; however history is not on his side arriving in the bigs so late in his career.

Betting- Consider mostly home starts at -125 or less

Josh Johnson (7-1, 12-3, +8.9 units) is mountain of a man at 6’7, 230 pounds for Florida. The 25-year old is blossoming into quite a pitcher, be it relative obscurity. Johnson’s fastball of 92-96 looks faster because of his size and downhill angle. He’s become proficient of going up the ladder (low pitches early in the count and moving up later) and has power slider. His mental makeup comes thru, as he and the Marlins are 5-1 on the road and perfect 5-0 as underdogs. Night vision goggles required for opposing hitters, with 1.74 ERA after dark.

Betting – Strong play as present time

In the last few years, if you wanted to make money, it was bet against the Giants with Matt Cain (9-1, 11-3, +8.2 units) pitching. The 24-year old former first round pick, either received little run support, or had one bad inning that resulted in too many 5-4 or 3-2 losses. He’s been everyone’s favorite play against pitcher, until this season. With a reduction of weight in the off-season, his four-seam fastball is more in the mid-90’s and tailing two-seamer has been lower in the strike zone, resulting in fewer fly balls. He’s better than 2-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio for the first time in three years and has more pitched games with two or less walks then in the past. Still has big upside, if he keeps command and wants to thrive as strong No.2 with Lincecum.

Betting – Terrific play as favorite with San Fran 9-1.

To give you an idea of how long Tim Wakefield has played Major League baseball, the year he came up “Aladdin” was the top grossing movie (1992). Back then, Wakefield probably messed around throwing a knuckleball with his teammates in jest. In about six weeks, Wakefield (9-3, 11-3, +7.9 units) will be 43 years old and he’s been a god-send for Boston with an ineffective Daisuke Matsuzaka and John Smoltz finally making the active roster. Nothing has really changed for Wakefield’s fluttering pitch, other than the fact he’s seen Red Sox hitters pound out six or more runs in nine of his 14 starts.

Betting – Red Sox are 7-0 at Fenway with Wakefield tossing, nonetheless hard to support at much more than -160 at home.

Here’s a rarity, Jason Marquis (9-4, 10-4, +7.3 units) admits he likes pitching at Coors Field. The traveled right-hander took the right attitude and embraced pitching in the Colorado Mountains and he along with newfound teammates are 5-2 at home or on the road. Granted his ERA and WHIP are decidedly higher at home, but that is to be expected. Since being hammered in the middle of May by Houston (nine runs), Marquis has surrender four or less runs in last seven starts. He’s been much more effective during the day with 2.93 ERA compared 4.33 under the lights.

Betting – Other then 2005, when Marquis was 15-7 in St. Louis, little reason to believe he will keep pitching this well unless the Rockies score seven runs a game. He is however worth a look as underdog with 6-1 mark. (Rockies record)

Load it up for Monday

An extremely rare couple of losing days has us changing things up a bit, as does a light schedule. We have a run line system going today in a makeup game. The Top Trend is a Totals play and the Free Play is based on consensus action for a Monday. Good Luck.

What I saw yesterday and today – If you don’t believe pressure affects a person, you couldn’t be more wrong if you watched Ricky Barnes the last two days. The halfway leader at the U.S. Open completely changed his swing, going from fluid controlled motion to looking like Arnold Palmer, at current age. Barnes had terrible left side thrust and his hands couldn’t get up with his body and was all over the place. Congrats to Lucas Glover who more held his composure.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON road underdogs (Cubs) against a 1.5 run line, (Money Line =-190 to +165) who are below average NL hitting team with .255 or less batting average, against a good starting pitcher (3.70 or less ERA), starting a pitcher who walked five or more hitters last outing, This run line system is 47-15, 75.8 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The San Francisco Giants are 14-1 UNDER after scoring and allowing three runs or less this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Today, 11 LCC members are on Oakland, with not one backing the Giants in Bay Area battle.

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Monday Baseball Wagering Action

Besides a makeup game on tap today, three other games are on the baseball docket. Each has its own story to tell, here is what each looks like tonight to the sports bettor on a sleepy Monday.

Cardinals in control

St. Louis (39-31, +2.7 units) has reeled of three consecutive wins and eight of last 11, to take over first place in the NL Central. The Cards bats crushed Kansas City pitching for 29 runs on 37 hits in sweeping the Royals. The Cardinals were led by, who else, Albert Pujols, who abused K.C., with three home runs and 10 runs batted in. “It’s nothing special. I’m just seeing good pitches and hitting them,” Pujols said. That’s what Kansas City pitchers thought also.

New York (34-33, -2.3 units) has lost four series in a row, in compiling 4-8 record and will look to turn things around quickly. Mets pitching has been in the tank, conceding a hair over six runs per game and when they get a better effort like Johan Santana provided Saturday, the bats go deathly silent in 3-1 loss. The only good news comes from the fact New York is 8-0 having lost four of their last five games this season. They will send a shaky Tim Redding (0-2, 6.27) to the mound.

The Redbirds are slight -108 favorites with total Un9.5 at DiamondSportsbook.com. They are 31-19 vs. teams with a good bullpen, whose ERA is 3.75 or better. Todd Wellemeyer (6-6, 5.36) gets the call and New York is 11-17 (-17.4 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 over the last three seasons. ESPN2 will have the coverage at 7:10 Eastern.

Colorado is Hot Hot Hot

The 1970’s punk band, New York Dolls, have reunited recently with some of its original members, including front man David Johansen. For a time in the late 80’s, Johansen, repackaged himself as pseudonym Buster Poindexter and was part of the Saturday Night Live house band. He later recorded his one and only hit, which completely describes the Colorado Rockies at the moment - Hot Hot Hot. Colorado (36-33, +4.8 units) is on 16-1 roll to move into third place in the NL West, picking up +17.7 units of profit in the process. The Rockies are 16-4 in June and will start Aaron Cook (6-3, 4.23) against a team who had almost as hot.

The Los Angeles Angels (36-31, +5.5 units) had won seven straight before losing last two games to cross-town rival Dodgers. The Angels will start Matt Palmer (6-0, 4.13) who has won just once in last four starts. The Angels are hoping the journeyman Palmer can keep changing speeds and be effective and improve Angels record to 51-31 having lost two of their last three games.
The Halos are -113 money line favorites and Cook and Rockies are 6-0 in road games after two or more consecutive wins.

Bay Area Battle

The Oakland A’s (30-38, -5.8 units) are happy to return home after 3-6 interleague road trip, which started with three losses against tonight’s opponent San Francisco. The A’s are a tremendous 73-36 at home in interleague action and are keeping fingers crossed rookie Trevor Cahill (4-5, 3.89) can help turn around their fortunes.

San Francisco (37-31, +6.3) has shown multiple personalities of late, sweeping Oakland and Texas, while being swept by the Angels in the middle grouping of last three series, all at home. The Giants are 13-19 on the road and 18-38 after six or more consecutive home games since the start of 2007 campaign. Struggling Jonathan Sanchez 2-7, 5.43) will climb the hill for San Fran, who are +139 underdogs.

Oakland took the series over San Diego over the weekend; however is miserable 6-17 having won two of three in 2009.

Happy Father's Day to All

As a father, we too often get wrapped in our own little worlds and don’t give our children time enough to express what this day means to them, more than what it might mean to us. It’s a wonderful day to tell you kids and your dad what you are really thinking about them. Happy Father’s Day to you.

An unbecoming 1-2 Saturday record has us 110-74-3. Found an 81.2 percent system this is ready to fire in Boston. Today’s Top Trend looks in on the overpaid and underperforming Barry Zito. Mark goes for another Free Winner and has sharp angle to back it up. Good Luck.

What I saw yesterday – Jared and Jeff Weaver were the opposing starting pitchers in Los Angeles. It was the 21st time in major-league history that siblings started against each other in a game but only the second in which neither brother pitched at least six innings. The only other such occurrence came back on June 26, 1924, when Jesse Barnes pitched only 3 2/3 innings for the Boston Braves while Virgil Barnes lasted just 1/3 of an inning for the New York Giants.

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Atlanta with a money line of +100 to +150, who average less than a homer run per game against a starting pitcher who allows one or less long balls per every two starts, with a NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 on the season. Over the last three years this system is 26-6, 81.2 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Barry Zito and the Giants are 1-12 vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Mark of the LCC goes for three in a row in the I-5 Freeway series taking the Halos, with John Lackey and mates 11-0 at the Big A in interleague games.

Sunday Night Baseball Preview

After missing the first six weeks with an elbow injury, Los Angeles Angels right-hander John Lackey has had an up-and-down season. When he has faced the Los Angeles Dodgers in Anaheim in the Freeway Series, however, he’s enjoyed nothing but success. Lackey brings a 21-inning scoreless home streak against the Dodgers into Sunday night’s series finale as he tries to improve to 9-0 in his career in interleague starts at Angel Stadium.

The Angels (36-30, +7 units) have seen Lackey (2-2, 6.10 ERA, 1.565 WHIP) sprinkle in a few solid outings while getting hit hard in others in 2009 since he made his season debut May 16.
At home in interleague play, though, Lackey is 8-0 with a 2.00 ERA in 11 starts - all wins for the Angels. That includes a 4-0 mark with a 0.33 ERA in four outings against the Dodgers, with 21 straight scoreless innings.

Lackey faced the Dodgers (45-24, +18 units) on the road May 23 and yielded three runs over seven innings in a 5-4, 10-inning loss. In his last start, he won Monday at San Francisco by allowing three runs over seven innings while striking out a season-high 10 and walking none in a 9-7 victory.

“I really established the ball inside early in the game,” Lackey told the Angels’ official Web site Monday, “and that allowed me to get guys to go after the curveball. It’s probably the best curveball I’ve had so far this year.” The tall Texan and his Angels’ teammates have won last five Game 3’s his been the hurler.

Several hitters for the Dodgers have fared poorly versus Lackey. Casey Blake is 2 for 16, Andre Ethier 2 for 9 and Matt Kemp is hitless in nine at-bats with seven strikeouts. Those three hitters combined for four hits and three RBIs Saturday as the Dodgers ended the Angels’ season-high seven-game winning streak with a 6-4 victory. Russell Martin added three hits, including his first homer of the year, to help the Dodgers improve to 2-3 against the Angels.

With the Dodgers starting left-hander Clayton Kershaw (3-5, 4.13, 1.364) on Sunday, the Angels are hoping Juan Rivera can take advantage. Rivera is 0 for 2 with a walk in his career versus Kershaw, but he is one of the top hitters in the majors against left-handers with a .431 average. Rivera is 7 for 20 with two homers and five runs scored against the Dodgers this year while leadoff hitter Chone Figgins is 10 for 20 in the Freeway Series, and 19 for 45 (.422) with 11 runs scored in 11 interleague games.

“When you’re a line-drive-hitting team like we are,” Figgins told the Angels’ site, “you build on your own momentum. We get a base hit, go first to third, and suddenly, everything is in motion.”
Kershaw is 0-2 with a 3.29 ERA in three starts since his last win May 27 at Colorado. He gave up four hits over 5 2/3 innings Tuesday in a 5-4, 10-inning win over Oakland. The Dodgers are hoping Kershaw can just keep them in the game and get into the Halos putrid bullpen, since they are 24-11 vs. a mediocre pen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse this season.

The Dodgers victory over the A’s is the only win in Kershaw’s five career interleague starts - he is 0-1 with a 2.66 ERA in those outings. Kershaw’s lone career start against the Angels came May 22 and he gave up one run in five innings in a 3-1 loss.

Bookmaker.com has the Angels as -128 money line favorites with a total of Ov8.5. The team from Anaheim is 15-3 playing at the Big A when playing on Sunday over the last two seasons and 24-6 at home after three straight games where they committed no errors. With Lackey on the hill, the Angels are 17-5 UNDER in intrleague contests.

The Dodgers are 13-6 (+10.1 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 and 24-8 when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season. The team actually from L.A. is 15-6 UNDER in interleague action against club that has winning record.

The starting time for this Father’s Day game is 8:05 Eastern on ESPN, with the Halos having won six of the last eight meetings on home turf.

Santosh Venkataraman, STATS Senior writer contributed to this article.

Saturday Selections

Engineered a good comeback with 2-0 day. The Top Trend reviews how the Twinkies handle playing against teams in the National League. The Best System is an 83.7 percent winner over an extended period of time and Mark goes a for second straight winner here at 3DW. Good Luck.

What I saw yesterday – The last few years haven’t watched as much of the College World Series, but my interest was piqued a little more this season for some reason. Many of the games have been outstanding and the 9th inning by Arizona State and Texas will be remembered in Omaha for some time. In case you didn’t see it, the Sun Devils broke 2-2 tie in the top of the ninth and the Longhorns hit two solo shots in the bottom of the inning to win, and will now play for title. My LSU pick is still alive.

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road teams who are below average AL hitting team, hitting .265 or less as a team, against a good NL starting pitcher (3.70 ERA or less), who are batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games. Texas fits this style for a system that is 41-8 the last 12 seasons.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Minnesota Twins are 22-6 in interleague play since 2008.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Mark of the LCC nailed yesterday’s play and likes Toronto to bounce back from extra innings loss.

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MLB Series Wagering- Dodgers at Angels

The I-5 series moves south, down to Orange County, with the Dodgers taking on the Angels. Without question this is the best series of the weekend with a lot of reasons to follow the action. The team actually from Los Angeles has the best record in the Major Leagues at 44-23 and has garnered +17.3 units of profit for backers. The L.A. area club who plays in Anaheim has gotten hot, winning six in a row and seven of nine, to crawl within 1.5 games of Texas for the AL West lead.

The Dodgers are averaging five runs per game and that numbers figures only to rise once Manny Ramirez returns to the lineup. Manager Joe Torre has been fortunate that Juan Pierre had step up his game so well and they have won 11 of last 15 road games, thanks to better than expected starting pitching.

The Halos (35-29, +7.8 units) have been tearing the cover off the ball during this win streak, batting .350 as a team, giving them highest batting average in baseball at .282. (Though 10th in runs scored) They have accomplished this in spite of not having all their big sluggers in the lineup like Torii Hunter, Vladimir Guerrero and Bobby Abreu, who have missed time with various ailments. The Angels are 8-1 interleague action and 32-13 against the National League the last three seasons.

The Dodgers will send their ace Chad Billingsley (9-3, 2.72 ERA) to the mound in the opener. Billingsley has exceeded expectations tossing at least six innings in 13 of 14 starts and lasting at least seven innings in eight of those starts. The right-hander has allowed more than four runs just once this season and the Dodgers are 11-3 when he’s been given the starting assignment. The visitor has opened as -107 money line favorite with total of Un8 at DiamondSportsbook.com and they are 47-19 in that role.

Joe Saunders (7-4, 3.66 ERA) might have something to say about that for the Angels. Saunders went through a rugged stretch recently where he allowed 13 runs in 18 innings, but he was back on his game against San Diego, pitching 8 1/3 innings surrendering one run in 9-1 wipeout. Saunders and the Halos are 16-3 versus team averaging less than a home run per game and 10-3 as underdogs of +150 or less.

The difference could turn on the Dodgers ability to hit lefties, with 15-6 record this season.

Game 1 Edge: Dodgers

Game 2 of the series will have a very unusual flavor, as brothers will meet for the first time in their lives. Jered Weaver (7-2, 2.08) will face his older brother Jeff (3-1, 3.72), who is expected to make first start since May 20, filling in for other Dodger starters on the DL. “That'll be weird," Jered Weaver said. "I just wish we could face each other in the batter's box. That would be fun."

Jered has matured into the type of pitcher many in the Angels organization had expected. He’s been brutal on right-hand hitters, with them batting .155 and loves pitching at the Big A, with microscopic 1.01 ERA. Manager Mike Scioscia has enjoyed sending the younger Weaver to the mound, since they have won his last five outings and they are 21-8 at home when Jered is the starter. Look for the Angels to be decided favorite with Jered Weaver 3-1 in five career outings against the Dodgers with a 1.59 ERA.

Game 2 Edge: Angels

The series finale is the ESPN Sunday night game and Torre has seen plenty of the team from Anaheim to know what to expect. "They are getting it together. They are intimidating; they can beat you in a lot of different ways. We don't have the speed they have. We bite and scratch, but [Mike Scioscia's] club is pretty much bred to do that. They keep plugging in another fast guy. I really respect what Mike has done in the years he's been there. You knew from the get-go what kind of club he wanted to have. You know as a catcher the kind of club that makes you uncomfortable, and that's the kind of club that makes you uncomfortable."

Torre of course has plenty of faith in his own club and will send Clayton Kershaw (3-5, 4.13) to the mound. Kershaw bounced bad from his worst outing of the year, shutting out Oakland for 5 2/3 innings, striking out eight. Coming into this series, the Dodgers are 32-16 in night games and 13-7 as underdogs. If the game is close, the team from northern L.A. has superior bullpen and is 16-6 in one run games.

The Angels will use veteran John Lackey (2-2, 6.10) who might being rounding into form after starting the season on the DL. Lackey hurled seven strong innings against San Francisco, ringing up 10 K’s and not walking a batter. He had his best fastball of the season and curveball really had downward motion. If the Halos bats stay hot, Lackey could improve on 5-1 record with a 1.50 ERA against the other Angelinos.

Game 3 Edge: Angels

Though the Dodgers are the better team, they have played with a mental block in this Los Angeles turf war. Since 2001, those in Dodger blue have won only six times in 24 tries near Disneyland. Based on how this series has played out over the years and the Angels playing best baseball of the season right now, will back them this weekend, looking for a second straight winner and working back towards .500.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Dodgers +125, Angels -155

3DW Pick: Los Angeles (The Angels)

2009 Record – 3-6

Bounce Back Friday

We got hammered with an ugly 0-3 day. No great system plays today, but one that just missed at 79.1 percent. The I-70 series ends up being part of the Top Trend and Mark of the LCC is +8 units in last nine baseball plays and has top choice as today’s Free Play. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – Rick Porcello of the Detroit Tigers has won seven of his last nine starts, making him the first pitcher under 21 to win seven of nine starts since Dwight Gooden did it in 1985. The last American League pitcher to do so was Jim Palmer in 1966.

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON all teams like the Red Sox with a money line of -100 to -150, when the team's hitters draw four walks or more a game on the season, after allowing two runs or less three straight games. This just missed qualify at 79.1 percent with 68-18 record.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Brad Thompson and the Cardinals are 15-3 in night games since 2007.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Mark of the Left Coast Connection likes Oakland’s matchup against San Diego on the road.

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Why are these baseball teams playing Under?

There has been more of movement the last several years for baseball bettors to play totals. It is easy to trace the origins as totals today have price tags of -135 or -140 on a particular number, compared to mostly -120 at the highest point before a number change not that many seasons ago. (Ex. - Under 9 (-120) moves down to 8.5) With betting lines like the stock market, what creates this kind of volatility? Let’s examine the top four teams playing UNDER the total in 2009.

The Texas Rangers are 40-23-2 UNDER, which is in and of itself a shocker. Texas has long been known as offensive club playing in run-friendly Rangers Park at Arlington. Along with this, the Rangers pitchers have not exactly cast a spell over the opposition, as they have given up about the same number of runs as the offense generates. Their have been changes within the organization since Nolan Ryan became President and they are apparent.

The offense still scores runs, averaging five a game, which is down a little, with the offense slumping a bit lately. The biggest change comes in the pitching. It is doesn’t seem plausible Texas will lead the American League or baseball for that matter in earned run average playing half their games in Arlington bandbox. That doesn’t mean they can’t improve and have they ever.

After finishing 30th in baseball with 5.37 ERA in 2008, the Rangers pitchers (really have a different look about them) have improved nearly a whole run to 4.42, ranking 18th overall. (Thru 6-17-09) The most noticeable difference has been throwing strikes. This season, Rangers’ pitchers are 11th in walks allowed, last year they were 24th. Texas also has legitimate ways to close out games, as closers Frank Francisco and C.J. Wilson have led the way in the Rangers converting 82.6 percent of save attempts. (19 of 23)

The feel is oddsmakers have been slow to adjust and the wagering public has not gotten on board with Texas playing this way.

The Chicago White Sox are another team that has played UNDER with 39-26-1 mark. The reasoning for the South Siders to be playing this style of ball is not scoring as many runs, averaging 4.1 per game. The White Sox are at their best when they are hitting the long ball. That was true in 2005 when they won the World Series, finishing fifth in the baseball with 200 home runs and last year when they made the playoffs, leading the Major Leagues with 235. At this juncture they are strictly middle-of-the-road ranked 14th overall.

The big boppers are getting older like Jim Thome and Carlos Quentin has been injured and not the same player as last season. One can not overlook the weather factor, with many cold and cloudy days in Chi-town, with the wind blowing in more frequently off of Lake Michigan.
Seattle is 39-25-2 UNDER, with their everyday lineup performing much like Starbucks stock. The Mariners are at the bottom of the barrel in runs scored at 3.7 per game. They have been among the worst on baseball all year for on-base percentage and are next to last in drawing walks.

Another component is the pitching the M’s have delivered. Only the Los Angeles Dodgers have a lower team ERA than Seattle, who has nine pitchers that have seen action in at least nine games with earned run average below four.

The Detroit Tigers are another club on the UNDER train, with 38-27-1 record. The Tigers situation is a little more difficult to understand until to bring out the shovel and start digging around. Detroit is a respectable 13th in runs scored at 4.8 per outing and they allow 4.5 per game. What isn’t so readily seen unless you follow this Motown team, is they have scored three runs or less 29 times, which is over 40 percent of the time they have played in 2009. This inconsistent offense has lent itself to falling below the total.

Manager Jim Leyland has three dependable starters in Jason Verlander, Edwin Jackson and rookie Rick Porcello, who have 3.71 ERA’s or less. Detroit at this writing is tied for the lead in shutouts in baseball with seven.

Part of finding winners on totals is understanding why teams play the way they do and trying to beat the oddsmakers to the punch.

Action for Thursday June 18

Paul Buck and we got taken down yesterday. I’d like to say thanks to Paul for all his fantastic plays, I hope you grabbed some winners with his plays. Yesterday’s 1-2 mark has us at 107-69-3, 60.8 percent. The Top Trend has not lost and is in afternoon action. Slick Rick is having a nice week and offers free play. The best System is 82.1 percent and is in Beantown. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday - Milwaukee swept their series against the Cleveland by scores of 14-12, 7-5 and 9-8. The total of 55 runs was the second-highest in any three-game series this year, behind the 56 runs the Orioles and Rangers combined to score when they met in Texas in the second week of the season. It was the highest run total in a three-game interleague series since 2005, when Cincinnati and Tampa Bay combined for 55 runs in a three-game Reds sweep (9-7, 11-9, 14-5).

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Florida, with a money line of +150 or more, allowing 4.8 or more runs a game on the season, against opponent with a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. Over the last five years this system grades out at 78-17, 82.1 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The San Diego Padres have lost 13 consecutive interleague encounters.

Free Baseball Selection -3) We move ahead and Slick Rick is 7-3 this week and prefers the Metropolitans this evening.

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From the House of Sports - June 18

Does The Punishment Fit The Crime?

Cleveland Browns wide receiver Donte’ Stallworth pleaded guilty to DUI manslaughter and was sentenced yesterday in Florida to one month in jail. Before you go ballistic over what initially appears to be a slap-on-the-wrist miscarriage of justice, let’s take a closer look. Stallworth was also sentenced to two years’ house arrest, eight years’ probation, loss of his drivers license for life, 1,000 hours of community service and an undisclosed financial settlement with the family of the man he killed, Mario Reyes. Let’s be honest here: what good would be served by locking up Stallworth for five or ten years? At least he remained at the scene of the crime when countless others would have fled, he took responsibility and admitted his guilt, and has agreed to the Reyes family’s desire to avoid a protracted legal proceeding. Miami-Dade State Attorney Katherine Rundle emphatically stated, “He is being punished appropriately. This is what the family wanted.” Even a representative for Mothers Against Drunk Driving said the deal was the best outcome. “I think there are a lot of kids as well as adults who will listen to his message,” said Miami-Dade MADD Director Janet Mondshein. “I think he’ll do more good being out of jail and being active in prevention.” Now Stallworth must await further punishment from the NFL, usually meted out in the form of game suspensions.

Tiger Time

A fully recovered Tiger Woods can make history by winning this week’s U.S. Open in Farmingdale, NY. Playing on a course that will include THREE par-4 holes of 500 yards or more for the first time ever, Woods will try to become the first man since Curtis Strange in 1988-89 to win back-to-back Opens. Already the owner of a whopping 14 Major championships at age 33, Tiger modestly summed up the possibility of taking home the 109th Open trophy by saying, “I like my chances in any Major.”

Someone Finally Said It FINALLY!

A professional tennis coach has spoken out on an aspect of the game that we’ve felt needed to be addressed for quite some time. Nick Bollettieri believes some sort of action should be taken against touring players who GRUNT loudly during matches! “There is a need for some sort of regulation,” declared Bollettieri. “Players on both the men’s and women’s tours grunt. Something eventually needs to be done.” We couldn’t agree more, Nick. In fact, we’d like to see Maria Sharapova and other main offenders play a match with their mouths taped shut so they can’t bellow like farm animals on every serve and shot.

NBA Wipeout

No surprise here. The five NBA Finals games just shown on ABC between the Lakers and Magic recorded a viewer loss of 10% compared to last season’s matchup between the Lakers and Celtics. May not sound like much to the average Joe but to the NBA, ABC and the game advertisers, the dropoff was HUGE.

Danica, Danica...

Here’s the most interesting news we’ve heard in awhile. Even though she says she won’t make an announcement about her future in racing until after the current IndyCar Series season ends in October, Danica Patrick is supposedly gathering info about a possible switch to NASCAR! Although many Sprint Cup drivers have dismissed Patrick’s abilities with comments like, “You’ve got to DRIVE these cars, not just point ‘em straight ahead,” the fact is NASCAR is struggling in a major way this year and the addition of a mega-star like Patrick would give stock car racing a desperately needed boost in 2010.

Thoughts from the House of Sports.com.

Another Brett Favre Story- WTF?

It’s unfortunate, but how can I possibly not comment like the rest of the Free World about the antics of Number 4 (fill in jersey color). In the state of Wisconsin, Brett Favre had become the most revered Green Bay Packer since Bart Starr and even after his hissy fit with General Manager Ted Thompson last year; most were willing to let bygone’s be bygone’s and wished him luck in New Jersey.

Favre’s dreadful play at the end of last season, which played a huge part in the New York Jets missing the playoffs and Eric Mangini being fired, looked to have signaled the end of the road for the future Hall of Famer. Favre reiterated as much and only the most sarcastic of people really believed the Wrangler Jeans pitchman would come back for another season.

Much like a woman scorned and a boxer not sure when to hang them up, reports started surfacing in April, that Favre was “thinking” about coming back again. He knew his shoulder still wasn’t right, but this time he held the cards and wanted to gauge the interest of the Minnesota Vikings, the team he really wanted to play after Green Bay couldn’t wait any longer for his decision before the 2008 season.

Most folks dismissed the idea of Favre coming back, since common sense would suggest how many times can a guy retire? It ended up being “where there is smoke, there is probably fire” and the old Green and Gold hero wanted to go at it again.

The media savvy Favre will tell anyone (I do mean anyone) that he still thinks he can play at a high level, yes he’s not the same quarterback that won multiple MVP awards, nonetheless, he can contribute on what would hopefully be a Super Bowl contender.

However, in the same vein of Joan Rivers act from years ago (that would six or seven face procedures ago) “Can we talk?” anyone with an IQ over 60 can see Favre’s real intention, stick it to Thompson, coach Mike McCarthy and the Packers organization. Favre’s real or imagined obsession with what happened in Green Bay behind closed doors is unhealthy for any adult, let alone a child.

At some point you have to move on, life does go on. I once worked for a guy who I and other co-workers believed made Adolph Hitler seem likeable. After leaving his business, I swore I’d never mention or think of that man again. But in time, I realized he did teach me things I’ve been able to apply and though I’d never go out of my way to greet him in a grocery store, I ended up respecting his knowledge as it related to work.

Favre’s not reached that point and coach Brad Childress and Minnesota are willing to give #4 a purple jersey and roll the dice. When you think about, what do the Vikings have to lose?

Bookmaker.com already has Minnesota as the betting division favorite at +160 and they are with a large contingent at +900 to win the NFC. Childress knows they are not going to Super Bowl with Tarvaris Jackson under center on a regular basis, which is why they signed Sage Rosenfels. The Houston backup performed well when starter Matt Schaub went down, however the more he played the less effective he became in 2008.

The Vikings thought he was the best available signal caller that fit into salary structure and they believe they have enough pieces on the squad as a whole that they just need above average, not great quarterback play to succeed. Minnesota has Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor to take handoffs, behind a solid offensive line, which utilizes zone-blocking scheme that suits the runner’s talents.

The Minnesota receivers are now at least average, with Bernard Berrian a big play receiver and Bobby Wade serviceable in the slot. Percy Harvon brings ample home run potential and tight end Visanthe Shiancoe developed as useable seam threat.

Defensively, the Vikes are as good as anyone, ranked No.1 against the run and improved markedly against the pass. This group might not be as effective early if tackles Kevin and Pat Williams are suspended for first four games, however you don’t make the Super Bowl based on first four games of the season.

Favre would be playing in offense he already knows, with Childress and his good buddy Darrell Bevell calling the shots. What does Minnesota lose by bringing Favre in?

The risks though are many for the Vikings. Favre has faded each of the last two seasons, as his aging body doesn’t recover as quickly. Granted, he would not have as many cold weather games in late November in December playing in the Metrodome, yet if the Minny makes the playoffs with a 9-7 record that means hitting the road to a likely cold weather destination. Last I checked, Astroturf or Fieldturf is still extremely hard, which means every hit Favre takes will be a harder shock to the system.

You have to know Minnesota fans will be in the state of shock, seeing the guy with the funny name being on their team, after literally hating him for a long time. If the Vikings get to or win the Super Bowl this next season, the front office would deserve all the accolades thrown their way for signing the Kiln, Mississippi product. But what happens if it doesn’t workout? Minnesota was in the playoffs last year and the reason for signing Rosenfels was to move beyond being one and done in the postseason. Childress has enough detractors already; he could fill up about half of the 10,000 lakes with people not on his side.

And what about Favre, when asked about playing this season on HBO’s new Joe Buck show, he paused and said “Maybe”. He went on to add, “I know people are tired of it, really,” Favre said about his drama queen act over retirement. “My intentions are not to — although it’s good for you (the media)—create controversy.”

It did seem odd that Favre used the “we” in talking about Minnesota as possible destination. Maybe it was honest slip, or something already in his subconscious. It Favre fails; he’ll be hated even more in Minnesota and mocked in Wisconsin and most other parts of the country for not knowing when to let go. If he succeeds, he can pump out his chest and have that infectious smile and know he just stuck it to the Packers.

Whatever Brett.

Paul Buck Goes for Number 12 in a Row

The only thing better than a 3-0 day at 3DW is Paul Buck’s remarkable streak. He’s hit 11 in a row and like his chances for 12. Today’s Best System is 89.5 percent and is presented in article form. The Top Trend is perfect, will it stay that way? Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday - The Blue Jays rallied for a tying run in the ninth inning and five runs in the 10th in an 8-3 win at Philadelphia. It was the Phillies fifth loss this season in which they led in the ninth inning or later. That's the highest total in the majors in 2009, and a total reversal from last season when the Phillies posted a 92-0 mark when leading in the ninth inning or extras.

Free Baseball System-1) See Minnesota Twins article below.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Jeff Suppan and the Milwaukee Brewers are 8-0 after a game where he did not walk a batter over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck owns the record for the greatest streak of Free Winners here at 3Daily Winners and tries to make it an even dozen with Detroit Tigers on the banks of the Mississippi tonight.

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Minnesota Twins feasting in interleague action

Based on history, maybe the upper Midwest franchise, whose state borders Canada, should put in for moving to the National League and cause a reshuffling of the teams in Major League Baseball. Minnesota has won the World Series twice, in 1987 and again in 1991, before free agency removed the age of innocence. The Twins are and always will a small market team, but it has never stopped them from competing and they continue to be in the thick of the race in the AL Central, virtually every year.

Another characteristic of Minnesota baseball is their dominance in interleague play. The Twins have the second-best record in baseball since this began in 1997, trailing only the New York Yankees. With last’s night’s 8-2 win over Pittsburgh, Minnesota is 6-1 in interleague play in 2009, which follows the pattern they has established over the last 5+ years.

Since 2004, the Twinkies are tasty 66-31 (68 percent) against their National League counterparts and in the last three years, they are Richardo Montalban “Marvelous” 31-12, 72 percent. This season they are crushing those from the senior circuit by 3.6 runs per game (6 to 2.4).

It’s really no mystery that leads to Minnesota’s success against the National League, the teams from the other league can’t hit Twins pitching. On the season, all teams score 4.6 runs per game against manager Ron Gardenhire’s club; however the NL lineups have scored only 2.4 per game, which is noted by them allowing nine runs in last four interleague contests, all victories.

With catcher Joe Mauer’s four base-knocks leading the16-hit parade, the Twins won handily last night and Mauer’s sick .429 batting average will start to make people take notice, even if it’s only the middle of June.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Twins as -183 money line favorites against Pittsburgh and why not, as they fall into one of the best super situations that has occurred all year.

Play On all favorites with money line of -175 to -250, after allowing four runs or less, four straight games, against opponent after a loss by four runs or more.

That is a simple and straight forward system with astonishing results. Over the last five seasons, there have been 51 winners out of 57 situations (89.5 percent). The winning margin has been almost as good as Minnesota’s in interleague action at 2.9 per game.

Let’s not also forget about how Minnesota plays when they receive exceptional pitching, with 7-0 record after allowing four runs or less six straight games. They will start Francisco Liriano (2-7, 5.99 ERA), who is finally showing signs of turning season around, allowing four total runs in last two starts, which is more than he can say for his mound opponent Ian Snell. The Pirates right-hander is 1-7 with 5.25 ERA and hasn’t won since April 18. In fact, Snell and the Bucs are 2-14 in road games in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.

No doubt the price is a trifle high on Minnesota; nevertheless, the results suggest another Twins killing.

The 2009 U.S. Open Preview

The favorite for this year’s United States Open championship is – surprise, Tiger Woods at +125. El Tigre showed the world he is pretty all the way back with his brilliant come from behind win at the Memorial. After not trusting his surgically repaired knee, Woods showed himself and everyone else he’s back, as his previously erratic driver nailed 49 of 56 fairways at Jack Nicklaus’ tournament.

The Open returns to Bethpage Black, after being highly successful there in 2002. This is a public golf course that people arrive at 4 AM in the morning to secure an open tee time. Make no mistakes, this is a great track and it will play 200 yards longer then it did seven years ago, meaning you have to get off the tee or be incredibility accurate with long irons, hybrids and fairway woods.

Is Tiger a shoo-in to win his 15th major?

Though Woods has had great success on public golf courses like Torrey Pines and Pebble Beach, he’s not a lock, despite playing well. This week’s wild card in hardly a longshot, (second betting choice at +1000) but Phil Mickelson has many hats to wear this week. Lefty was a tremendous crowd favorite here in 2002 and that doesn’t figure to change this year, especially with what has gone on with his wife Amy’s breast cancer diagnosis.

Though many golf pros don’t like Phil’s act, New Yorker’s embraced him immediately, consider it like a Mets and Yankees thing. Woods is like the Yankees, big and powerful and always lets you know who is in charge. Mickelson plays to the crowd and though the second best player in the world, he’ll always be in Tiger’s shadow, making him the classic underdog.

Will Mickelson have the patience to play 72 holes of golf under control, with what is swirling around in his head? The crowd will help, but it seems unlikely.

Padraig Harrington (+4000) won the last two major titles of 2008 and has worked to get better; however his swing adjustments have not panned out to date. Angel Cabrera (+7500) won The Masters in overtime in April and is wholly capable of putting up black numbers or shooting 79 twice to start The Open. Sergio Garcia (+4000) is playing with broken heart, having split up with Greg Norman’s daughter. Just wait till he gets within earshot of a New Yorker with a few Bud Light’s in his belly. As Mr. T once said, “I pity the fool.”

Players with the right game or playing well have to be strongly considered. Jim Furyk (+1500) is always a threat and tends to hang around the leaderboard at most majors with is steady play and is solid head to head wager. Geoff Ogilvy (+2000) and Sean O’Hair (+4000) have the length needed and are stable personality-wise to go through the grind that is the U.S. Open. One player that sticks out is Paul Casey (+2500), three wins (two in Europe) this year and a batch of other top finishes. Steve Stricker has played as consistently well as anyone on tour the last 18 months and the same no-name feel another Madison, WI. golfer by the name of Andy North had, being a two-time Open champion. (Ironically, North’s only two wins on the PGA Tour)

In looking over the head-to-head matchups, found a few that will be on my list of wagers at DiamondSportsbook.com.

Steve Stricker -220 over Adam Scott
Retief Goosen -105 over Sergio Garcia
Paul Casey -130 over Angel Cabrera
Vijay Singh -115 over Ernie Els

The U. S. Open is the sternest test in golf. If you like a player who is capable of being a “birdie machine”, save your money. This major is won by players who have the mental capacity to grind through 18 holes, four consecutive days. The course is set up to ensure par is a good score on every hole. The rough was believed to be a little too long right off the fairway seven years ago and Mike Davis of the USGA, the person who sets up the Open courses, went to graduated levels of rough, too truly punish the player who hits it wide.

The greens will be lightning fast, though relatively flat. Professional players are used to seeing breaks and will sometimes “over-read” these greens, believing there is more break than it looks.
Since Davis has taken over course management, the U.S. Open has become watchful again and the theatre spectacular. Expect more of the same in New York starting Thursday.

Tuesday Plays and Updated Rankings

The balls were flying out of AT&T Park last night, thus we lost our only play. Come right back with a perfect Trend that is a little different. Our Top System is a doubleheader at 84.8 percent and Paul Buck goes for yet another winner. Good Luck.

Sorry to be so late had deadline to make and got in long discussion. 3Daily Winners update of monitored plays.

Final NBA #4 Free Sports Monitor
Final NBA #5 The Sports Eye (regular season)

Current MLB
#3 The Sports Eye
#6 Free Sports Monitor
#8 Cappers Watchdog

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road teams, who are below average AL hitting teams with .265 or less batting average, against a good NL starting pitcher (ERA of 3.70 or lower), who are cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games. Two teams from the AL Central fit this play and they are the Tigers and White Sox. (39-7, 84.8 percent)

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Boston Red Sox are 11-0 vs. poor defensive catchers allowing 0.85 or more stolen bases per game this season. (Thanks Statfox)

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck, after a day of relaxing goes for 11 in a row with the Texas Rangers in Lone Star shootout.

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Baseball Betting info you can use

The Florida Marlins swept Toronto on the road over the weekend and are 4-2 in interleague play in 2009. The Marlins are the top OVER team in baseball at 35-27-3 (56.5 percent) and have a number of atypical numbers that should get every sports bettor thinking. The Fish lead Major League baseball in striking out the most and their pitchers strike out the most batters, adding to natural air conditioning at Landshark Stadium when Florida is home or playing away games.

Florida’s home stadium is considered an almost neutral ballpark for hitters and pitchers, yet Marlins relievers have 5.78 ERA at home and 1.98 ERA on the road. The Florida bullpen has blown eight of 14 save attempts in the home white uniforms yet have converted eight of nine in traveling grays.

With so much talk in recent years about the importance of a quality bullpen, what gets lost is what solid starting staff can do for a team. The San Francisco Giants had the oldest team in baseball and knew they had to become younger and restock the farm system after years of trying to surround Barry Bonds with veteran players trying to win division titles. The strength of the team had become its young starting pitching, with the likes of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain.

The everyday lineup would become a work in progress; nevertheless, playing in a pitcher’s park, pitching and defense would have to carry the Giants for now. San Fran is the fifth best bet in baseball at +6.1 units and 34-29 on the year. They have accomplished this despite being 28th in runs scored and on-base percentage and dead last in home runs (36).

The laid-back Lincecum (6-1, 2.66 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) has pitched about as expected and Cain, after dropping some weight, has really come into his own (9-1, 2.39, 1.26). Veterans Randy Johnson and Barry Zito have had rocky outings, but have given the team a chance to win as often as not. Only Jonathan Sanchez has been a real disappointment at 2-6. Manager Bruce Bochy has also had the luxury of trotting out the same group of five pitchers all season, a real rarity.

The San Francisco bullpen has pitched very well of late with 1.29 ERA in last seven games, moving up to eight overall. With the starters taking the pressure off the relievers, Bochy is able to go into late innings with set-up men and closer in place, making everyone more productive, explaining why the Giants have won 14 of last 19, despite not much run support.

Maybe Peter Coors of Coors Brewing is right, there is something in the water in the Rocky Mountains. The Colorado Rockies have again put together one of those out of nowhere streaks, with 11 consecutive wins and are within a game of .500 at 31-32 (+0.9). What was the cause and effect for such a drastic turnaround? The players were forced to look in the mirror after Clint Hurdle was jettisoned as manager.

"A lot of us realized that it wasn't him that wasn't out there executing," pitcher Aaron Cook said. The staff ace realized he was among those who was not performing, as one of the most extreme groundball pitchers in baseball was having too many baseball get air under them and getting hit hard. In his last three starts, Cook (5-3, 4.26, 1.39) has given six total runs in 21 innings and surrendered three walks over that period.

Collectively, the Rockies pitchers have not surrendered more than four runs in a single game during this scalding streak and the batters have started ripping the cover off the ball scoring 6.6 runs per game. Colorado has picked up a stunning +13.8 units during this stretch, giving streak-riders plenty to smile about.

Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh are next to visit this team on a Rocky Mountain high, the Rocks are worth watching for what direction they will go once they finally suffer a loss.

Earlier, mentioned the maturation of Matt Cain and another pitcher that has found a groove (a deep one at that) is Detroit’s Justin Verlander. Last year’s disastrous season (11-17, 4.84) had some wondering what direction the talented hard-throwing right-hander was headed. His first four starts brought back those same questions, yielding 21 earned runs in 22 innings. However, the words of new pitching coach Rick Knapp started to sink in and on April 27 at home against the Yankees, Verlander pitched seven shutout innings, with nine K’s and no walks. Knapp slowed down Verlander’s delivery and suddenly pitches that were up in the zone, were back down, with far greater control. The confidence returned and the speed variation on the breaking pitches was being spotted again.

The 26-year has won his last seven decisions and the Tigers are 8-2 when #35 takes the ball since his fourth start of the year. Verlander has been so dominant in last nine starts; he has 1.10 ERA and leads the American League in hitters swing and missing with 182. (Thanks, Inside Edge) Detroit is 7-1 (+5.4 units) when Verlander starts and he is the only starting pitcher to break triple digits on the radar gun twice in 2009.

A what do you think Monday

Our good fortune continues with 3-1 day, giving us 9-1 record the last three days and we continue to roll over two months with 103-66-3, 60.9 percent mark. Because of light sked, Top Trend will be only official play, though the Best System is pretty darn good at 34-9 considering only two games. Good Luck.

What I thought about yesterday – Sunday was one of those confusing betting days. For those that get my Free email picks, I was officially 1-2. (Sign up upper right of page if you would like to receive) I also mentioned I liked two other games (Florida and the Dodgers -winners), plus I actually liked the White Sox (winner) also. It was much like an NFL Sunday, where you have so many plays and just not that many games to choose from. For the most part, you know it is much easier seemingly to go 0-6 than 6-0, which is the reason I decided to be choosy. Seeing I’m going pretty well this season, I should have just played all five or six and let the results fall where they may. What makes it hard for me; I just don’t think that way and get skittish about playing 40 percent of the games on the board. Tell me about what you do in that spot.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road teams like the Brewers, who are average NL offensive team scoring 4.3 to 4.8 runs a game, against an average AL starter (ERA from 4.30 to 5.70), in the first half of the season. Since 2004, this system checks in at 34-9, 79.1 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The San Francisco Giants are 10-0 UNDER in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.500 to 1.600 since 1997.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck is going to sit out today and has hit 37 of last 50 plays, including 10 in a row here at 3Daily Winners. Check back tomorrow for his next Free Play.

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Milwaukee and Cleveland – Just like the old days

Has it been this long already? The Milwaukee Brewers came into existence thanks to the failure of then Seattle Pilots and opened for business in 1970. Milwaukee at that time was an American League franchise, before moving to the National League in 1998, causing the imbalance of teams in each league. For many years, the Brew Crew and the Cleveland Indians were division rivals and they will renew acquaintances on ESPN near the shores of Lake Erie Monday night.

These teams also share bit of history, but only in the movies. The fictional movie “Major League” was about the Cleveland Indians, however, most of the stadium and game scenes were filmed in Milwaukee, at the old County Stadium (which is part of the parking lot for Miller Park), as were several other scenes shot at various locations around the city. Even long-time Brewers radio announcer Bob Uecker, was the infamous “Harry Doyle”, the voice of the Wahoos. (Thanks, Paramount Pictures)

These teams have not met since 2006, also in Cleveland and have faced one another just once since 2001. Dating back to 1998, when they started competing as interleague opponents, Milwaukee holds an 8-7 edge.

Milwaukee (34-29) has been slumping of late, losing six of seven and nine of last 13. The Brewer bats have been the reason for their failures, scoring more than four runs just once in those defeats. The Crew has lost their last four interleague road games and are +113 money line underdogs according to DiamondSportsbook.com, thanks in part to starter Dave Bush (3-3, 4.58 ERA, 1.258 WHIP). Though 2-2 on the road this season (Milwaukee 2-3 in his starts), Bush is a notoriously dreadful road pitcher and has a laundry list of bad numbers.

· Bush is 8-25 in road games in the first half of the season. (Team's Record)
· Bush is 21-49 in road games. (Team's Record)
· Bush is 10-30 as a road underdog of +100 to +150. (Team's Record)
· Bush is 6-21 as a road underdog of +100 to +125. (Team's Record)
· Bush is 1-14 in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game. (Team's Record)

Those pathetic numbers would normally make one believe Milwaukee should be an even bigger underdog, but not against this Cleveland club. The Indians have started slow and kept right at the same pace. Mediocre starting pitching, wildly inconsistent offense and closer Kerry Wood blowing a number of saves early, have Cleveland (29-36) fighting to get back to .500.

Only Washington has surrendered as many runs as the Tribe and its not a mere coincidence no team has walked as many batters in the American League as have the Indians. (Harry Doyle- “Just a bit outside”) Cleveland is 3-8 at Progressive Field against teams with winning records and 3-8 as favorites of -150 or less.

One of the brighter spots this season has been pitcher Carl Pavano (6-5, 5.40, 1.344). For the most part Pavano has exceed expectations, with two starts in which he allowed nine runs, directly relating to blowing up his ERA, including his last against Kansas City. With the total at Un9.5, Cleveland has won six of Pavano’s seven starts when the total is between 9 -10.5.
Milwaukee and Bush are 11-2 UNDER as visitors in night games over the last two seasons, while Cleveland is 17-5 UNDER vs. a starting pitcher who gives up one or more long balls a start during the same period.

Pavano should throw first pitch a little after 7 Eastern and the Tribe is 29-15 playing on Monday’s over the last three years.

Let's makes this Sunday Super

Back to back 3-0 days has me feeling a little frisky and will present a System with two plays today that is 86 percent. Paul Buck is filling up his pockets with cash with continual winners and has another Free Play. Though hardly a perfect Trend, 21-5 is awfully attractive and worth consideration. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – It was another tough night for Armando Galarraga, who allowed four runs in two-plus innings in his loss to the Pirates. Galarraga was 3-0 with a 1.85 earned run average in four starts in April but he's 0-7 with a 7.54 ERA in nine starts since then, allowing at least one home run in each game. Galarraga is the first major-league pitcher to give up home runs in nine consecutive games this season.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175, who are below average AL batting average of .265 or less, against a solid NL starting pitcher (ERA of 3.70 or less), who hitting .250 or worse over their last 20 games. This system rocks at 37-6, 86 percent and yields two offerings, play against Texas and Oakland today.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Boston Red Sox are 21-5 vs. teams averaging 3.5 or more extra base hits per game this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck nailed three winners yesterday and likes the Cubs to win at least one against the Twinkies.

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Magic the favorite in uphill battle

Based on Friday’s accounts of Game 4 between Los Angeles and Orlando, Magic head coach Stan Van Gundy should have been the lead story at the top of every newscast and .com website, since he alone is the reason Orlando failed to tie the series at 2-2 and reportedly killed his team’s chance to be NBA champions. One problem with that thinking, it’s often incorrect. Did Van Gundy error, likely so, he should have had his players foul at almost any point in the final 10.8 seconds, but give Los Angeles a ton of credit, as they perfectly executed out of bounds play that led to Derrick Fisher’s game-tying shot in regulation.

Van Gundy didn’t have the luxury of calling timeout when Jameer Nelson decided to play zone against Fisher at most critical point, in a game known for man defense. Van Gundy played a hunch and he’s being crucified, but let’s not lose sight of another important factor, with 32 seconds remaining in overtime, the score was tied at 91. At that juncture, both teams were still in position to take the game, the Lakers snatched it and the Magic did not.

Van Gundy should be blamed for playing Nelson, when his best option was Rafer Alston, good or bad. It was evident from the first time Nelson took the court in the series, two to three minute stints would be the most useful way to utilize player who hadn’t seen the court in four months. Van Gundy’s trust or lack of in Alston betrayed him and his team fell to 40-12 and 29-23 ATS as home.

Orlando is 21-8 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent, but unless they do all the little things (keep in mind everything counts), they won’t improve that record. Reports had Dwight Howard choking for missing two free throws late; however he just reverted to being Superman shooting kryptonite as he had done much of the season. Missing 15 of 37 attempts from the charity stripe will cause almost any team to lose and the 17 turnovers led directly to 16 L.A. points.

The Magic find themselves in this predicament because they failed to match Lakers intensity in second half and scored a grand total of 42 points in last 29 minutes. Orlando is 14-5 ATS when playing with two days rest this season and has to play like a team that is absolutely desperate. Feed the ball into Howard, who must be decisive and go to the basket with authority. When he has the ball for more then two seconds, evil events often occur (seven turnovers in last contest), Howard has to be powerful and demanding.

Van Gundy has to somehow convince Alston he’s his guy (good luck) and get him mentally back into focus. Rashard Lewis is the only player in the Finals that makes Lamar Odom look a bastion of mental rock-solid stability. Wouldn’t you like to know where these players go during games? It appears Lewis should have sugar levels tested frequently throughout any given.

Orlando has again opened as three-point favorites at DiamondSportsbook.com to send the series back to other coast, with total at 198.5. The Magic have liked Sunday’s well enough, sporting a 9-3 ATS record and are 9-1 UNDER after a game where they made 60 percent of their free throws or less this season.

What makes this a challenging wager is the Lakers mindset. They haven’t always brought A-game on the road this postseason. The purple-clad team from L.A. has been a brilliant road underdog, with 11-3 ATS record this season and Kobe Bryant assuredly will have his mad face on, trying to win a championship and not have to share the limelight with a star player of equal status, giving him an argosy of tales and memories to cherish. The Lake Show hasn’t been as profitable on Sunday’s with 3-7 ATS record and is 13-3-1 UNDER on this day of the week.

It will be interesting to watch Van Gundy, does he continue to play his hunches or go more by the book, unless the players execute, either way can be wrong. Game 5 starts at just after 8 Eastern, with the underdog now 8-1 against the spread when these teams compete against one another.