Baseball Betting in the Second Half

With the All-Star game behind us and three well-deserved days away from wagering on Major League Baseball, it’s time to get back in the saddle and continue the delightful daily grind. If you have had the good fortune of making a solid profit like this reporter betting baseball, it is time to consider a few adjustments for the remainder of the regular season. What could change in three days with no games played, a lot!

Playing Favorites is more costly

Remember when the New England Patriots were in the midst of unbeaten regular season and were 9-0 and 8-1 ATS? The very next week oddsmakers had enough of squares and sharps kicking their behinds and made the Pats 16-point road favorites at Buffalo. Their thinking was you want to play them, go ahead, beat this number and it continued the rest of the season. Though, not to that extreme because of pitching matchups, the same thing occurs in baseball the rest of the season. Boston, the Yankees and the Dodgers will see ever increasing prices if they continue to win, making them poor risk-reward choices. The same will be true on the opposite end of the spectrum, with baneful teams like Washington and San Diego, helping inflate numbers of their opponents.

My advise on money line wagering is stick to certain limit (I use -175, normally about -155 otherwise) on favorites, since virtually anything above that number means you have to win two games for every loss.

Find bad teams playing well

It’s impossible to determine at the moment, however a few sub .500 teams are going to play unexpectedly well for long stretches and can be real bankroll builders. The absolute best recent example is the 2005 Houston Astros. At the end of July, Houston was 47-56 and going nowhere. Phil Garner was brought in as interim manager and nothing happen at first, then the Astros sky-rocketed, winning 42 of last 59 games and made the playoffs as wild card team before losing in the World Series to the Chicago White Sox. Keep antennae on high alert for this opportunity.

Ride Streaks Good and Bad

Just like in surfing, it’s not easy to catch the right wave. Too often, we as sports bettors are leery of streaks. We pay attention when a team wins or loses five in a row and often lack the confidence to “ride the tide” figuring the game we choose will be the loser. I’m not advocating “chase systems”, rather finding teams that have won possibly three in a row, are scoring runs like people flocking to a Harry Potter movie opening weekend and the right pitcher is starting. Play that team and who knows, they could have streak of seven or eight wins and you profited each time. One other piece of advise, think about playing that team one more time after a loss, since like many streaks, its not always consecutive wins, but winning nine of 11 or 12 of 15, those add up quickly also. Do the 2007 Colorado Rockies jog the memory, winning 11 in a row and 13 of 14 starting in mid-September? The exact method works for Play Against teams on losing binges.
Bullpens still matter

As innings start to mount on starting pitchers, the significance of the bullpen increases. Teams that have their house in order can see ERA of bullpen drop a half a run or more from here on out. This collection of relievers can provide a number of winning bets, saving small leads or games that are tied in the middle innings. Watch these numbers carefully.

Follow home/road records

By now, most teams have set up a pattern of playing tangible baseball home or away. The Red Sox, Dodgers, Tigers and Giants are all strong home wagers, while the Phillies, Rockies and both Los Angeles teams are the most profitable bets as visitors. Knowing this enhances chances to cash winning tickets more frequently.

September can be scary

For most sports bettors, once football starts, baseball is either finished or put on the back-burner. This is not a bad strategy for a number of reasons. Start with what teams care about winning and those waiting for the season to end. Contending teams offer little value unless they are playing each other, which is more a crap shoot late in the season. Expanded rosters, means more research to check who is or isn’t playing and being unfamiliar with called-up pitchers adds to the quandary.

Don’t blindly bet just to do so, since a bankroll that took five months to build can disappear quickly in 30 days. Be extremely judicious and only play games you feel are next to “locks”. Otherwise, set aside a few days to do baseball exclusively. An extremely successful bettor friend of mine bets baseball just on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday in September, giving him what he feels is ample time to prepare for football weekends.

Rockies in Great Betting Spot

The Colorado Rockies return to action with a four-game road excursion to San Diego to start the second half of the season. Colorado is solidly entrenched in third place in the NL West and is two games behind San Francisco for the wild card spot. The Rockies have just completed a 10-game homestand that was mildly disappointing with series records of 1-1-1 for a total of 6-4 record.

Long known for home/road dichotomy, Colorado (47-41, +6.6 units) has made tremendous strides this season with 24-22 mark as visitors and they are the third best bet in baseball in the traveling uniforms at +8.3 units.

In their opening game against San Diego, they will send their ace Aaron Cook (8-3, 3.98 ERA, 1.390 WHIP) to the mound. After a sluggish start to the season, Cook has been cookin’ with 5-0 record in last seven starts, only conceding more than two earned runs twice in that time.
The sinkerball specialist has always enjoyed facing Padres hitters, as they continually beat the ball into the ground against him. This has led to Cook posing 12-4 record versus San Diego, with sparking 2.71 ERA. With the Rockies having defeated Atlanta last Sunday to end the homestand, Cook and Colorado are 10-3 in road games after a win over the last two seasons.

San Diego (36-52, -12.1 units) has hit the skids and about the only thing that is going to change their luck is cloning Adrian Gonzalez. The Padres are dead last in the Major Leagues in scoring, averaging meager 3.8 runs per game. Gonzalez is the only effective run producer on a team that has lost 21 of last 29 games and is 11-26 in July the last two years.

The Friars will start Chad Gaudin (4-7, 5.03, 1.409), who is a pitching rollercoaster. Throughout most of the season he’s alternated good and bad performances and is off one of the better ones, allowing one run in 6 2/3 against Arizona, which resulted in no-decision for him.

Bookmaker.com has Colorado as -135 money line favorites with total Ov7, which fits very comfortably into a system supporting the Rocks.

Play On road favorites with a money line of -125 or more after seven or more consecutive home games, in July games.

There is no mystical reason why this superb system works; it just does with 51-12, 81 percent record since 1997. These matchups tend to one-sided as well, with teams like Colorado winning on the road by 2.7 runs per game. With San Diego really finding it challenging to scratch in the win column and 9-25 having lost two of their last three games this season, consider this exceptional situation.

British Open Betting Preview

The oldest and most prestigious major golf championship to those golfers around the world commences Thursday, with Tiger Woods commanding the lion’s share of attention, but not all of it. Though Mr. Woods is a decided favorite, several other top golfers are being considered for this weekend’s action, as potential champions in the third major tournament of the year.

Woods has three wins and eight top 10 finishes since returning to stroke play events in 2009, coming off knee surgery. It has been evident Tiger has not always trusted his full arsenal of shots this year, however with each tournament played; his confidence in different aspects of his game has grown.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Woods as +180 money line pick and links golf plays into his greatest strength, his mind. No professional golfer has a better imagination to develop shots and with his ability to execute; this is the reason why he is always the top choice to be champion. Don’t look to see the driver much from Woods, looking to keep the ball out of the deep rough.

Maybe it’s because Tiger hasn’t nailed down a major in 2009, but several different golfers are being given a chance to win the British Open.

One difference is just the fact it is a links course, making it more difficult to predict a winner by the ever-changing conditions one could see at Turnberry. Those who arrived early to play practice rounds have seen the weather fairly normal (sun, rain, sun and more rain), however the wind has blown from three different directions in three days.

Retief Goosen, Ian Poulter and Sergio Garcia are listed as +2000 choices to walk away with the Claret Jug. Goosen is always mentioned in any major, since his game is steady and he’s always at or near the top of the leaderboard. Poulter has been a little more erratic this season, with four Top 10 finishes, yet he’s finished below 50th in two of his last four starts. What can you say about Sergio? He’s only had one Top 10 finish in the States this season, as his balky putter continues to haunt him. One aspect in his favor, the greens at Turnberry are relatively flat, which should help, as he strives to finally win the “big one”.

The next group at +2500 is a cauldron of players and styles, which is as perplexing and wonderful as you will find. Padraig Harrington tried to improve his swing after winning the British Open and PGA Championship last year. To say it hasn’t worked as planned is similar is to saying former baseball star Lenny Dykstra has a few financial difficulties. Harrington recently won the Irish Open and even he wasn’t sure what this has done for his confidence, as he has two Top 20 (no Top 10’s) finishes in 13 other starts, with seven missed cuts.

Hunter Mahan is being given a chance to be solid contender, based on his last three tournaments in which he’s finished in order T6th, T4th and 2nd. The 6th place finish was at the U.S. Open and he fired a closing round 62 at the AT&T National, having the clubhouse lead until Tiger passed him with birdie late in his last event.

Rory Mcllroy gathers a great deal of attention as a young golf prodigy at 20 years old. Mcllroy has immense talent and if he can play well for first three days, he’s shown the pedigree of being able to knock down a good number on Sunday’s.

Lee Westwood has been playing consistent golf for over a year and is off two Top 10 finishes, making him a contender.

Martin Kaymer of Germany falls into the darkhorse category at +3000. Kaymer has quietly moved up to 11th in World Rankings with consecutive wins in the French Open and Barclays Scottish Open this past week. Kaymer’s short game is Top 10 material and he’s shown grace under pressure when leading.

Though 18 years older, Steve Stricker has a lot in common with Kaymer, besides the same odds to win the British Open. Sticker has four Top 3 finishes in 2009, including winning two of his last four starts. His win at the John Deere continues his career resurgence and he can roll the ball with the best of them with flat stick when confidence is at top level.

Geoff Ogilvy, Henrik Stenson, Jim Furyk and Paul Casey all deserve mention; nonetheless it all starts with El Tigre.

Tiger has won three previous British Opens, but as Mark Reason writes in the Sunday Independent, Woods’ wins have come on dry and more burned-out links courses. Turnberry has thick, lush rough and similar courses like Birkdale, Lytham, Troon, St George's and Carnoustie, have all kept him out of the winners circle.

Turnberry is in a remote part of Scotland and was used as an air-base for World War II. Now it will face the assault of the world’s best golfers, hosting the Open Championship for only the fourth time.

Looking back at Preseason MLB Futures Wagers

Back in March, one of my assignments was to go cover the strengths and weakness of each Major League Baseball team and make a prediction on how each club would likely measure up against the season totals set by the oddsmakers. With the baseball season roughly 54 percent completed, thought I would look back and see how I preformed four months ago and how I might end up when the final results are officially in.

National League (My pick and future record based on current form)

Philadelphia (Un88 – projected 90 wins)

The Phillies finally started to play well at Citizens Bank Park and are up to 22-23 record, having won nine of last 10. If the bullpen continues to improve and National League’s best offense keeps firing, playing in mediocre division, Philly should comfortably surpass 88 wins.

Florida (Ov75 – projected 83 wins)

Though the Marlins are -12 in runs scored/runs allowed, their starting pitching is expected to continue to improve, making me look I made the right choice.

Atlanta (84.5 No Call – projected 79 wins)

All the numbers prove this is .500 club and nothing really shows Atlanta should be any different the rest of the way. Might have overestimated the Braves slightly.

N.Y. York Mets (Ov89 – projected 78 wins)

Injuries to several starters have made the Mets a pedestrian offensive club. Beyond Johan Santana, unreliable starters pitch in rotation and bullpen allows too many keys hits. New York seldom rises to the occasion, as 16-25 record acknowledges as an underdog. Missed badly.

Washington (Un72.5 – projected 48 wins)

Firing the manager doesn’t change the players. The Nationals have too many young starting pitchers, deplorable bullpen and not enough every day players that care, all leading to another Washington failure. About as easy as it gets on this call.

St. Louis (Ov83.5 – projected 87 wins)

Called for the Cardinals to compete for division crown and they have been the best team in the NL Central thus far. They are on schedule to go Over the number and if Rick Ankiel, Chris Duncan and Ryan Ludwick find batting stroke, St. Louis should win 90 games.

Milwaukee (Ov81.5 – projected 83 wins)

I thought the Brewers were barely above .500 club and they have proven me correct thus far. Milwaukee lacks enough starting pitchers that could send the team on seven or eight game winning streak or play well over extended period, taking 15 of 20 contests for example. For the most part, the Crew wins when favored (28-19) and lose when expected (17-24 as underdogs).

Chicago Cubs (Ov92.5 – projected 81 wins)

As correct as I was about Washington, like everyone, missed the Cubs by a magnificent Michigan Mile. Offense has been horrendous, ranking 14th in the National League in run production at 4.1 per game. Inconsistent starting pitching and injuries, means the Chicago would have to go 50-26 the rest of the way to surpass total. In the words of Al Borland, “I don’t think so Tim.”

Houston (O73.5 – projected 81 wins)

Despite having more retreads in starting staff than a used car lot, the Astros have overachieved thus far. Nonetheless, staring at -30 in RS/RA means this isn’t put to bed yet.

Cincinnati (78.5 No call– projected 78 wins)

Cincinnati has played as presumed and if anything could go Under in the second half. Only two NL teams have worse RS/RA allowed figures.

Pittsburgh (Ov69 – projected 70 wins)

Thought the Pirates might climb to 71 or 72 wins and gave them waffling approval months ago. Unless they remain snake-bit in one run games (5-14), could have a winner here.

L.A. Dodgers (Ov85 – projected 103 wins)

The Dodgers figured to be better than last season, but on pace to win over 100 games, nobody saw that coming. The ability to dominate division foes (30-12) makes this easy winner.

San Francisco (Un79.5 – projected 90 wins)

The Giants pitching was to be their calling card in 2009 and has it ever. The wild card leader at the moment, San Francisco is first in fewest runs allowed (3.7) and strikeouts (7.9 PG) and second in hits allowed (7.9 PG) and batting average (.239). Still weary of offense holding up in late August and September, yet have to say I blew this one.

Colorado (Ov76.5 – projected 86 wins)

The Rockies are making me look smart, in their now typical fashion, closing 28-9 before the All-Star break. One aspect nobody counted on was Jason Marquis leading the senior circuit with 11 wins at this point.

Arizona (86 No call – projected 69 wins)

Though I had no real thoughts on the Diamondbacks, misjudged how badly this team can play. This club lacks focus and true determination. Playing better the rest of the way would not be a shocker, however the only way they get 86 wins is taking whole squad to Arizona Fall Instructional League and pick up wins there.

San Diego (Un71 – projected 66 wins)

Never wavered in my belief that San Diego is the least talented team in baseball, even after 9-3 start. The Padres are proving to be what they are, awful.

American League (My pick and future record based on current form)

Boston (Un94.5 – projected 99 wins)

The Red Sox are putting together another superb season, with first-class offense, good starting pitching and a deep and varied bullpen with lots of answers. Thought this would be really solid team, but not at this pace.

N.Y. Yankees (Ov94.5 – projected 93 wins)

New York bumbled early and have bounced back to play superior baseball, if you disregard another lost trip in Anaheim. Expect this total to come down to last few days of the season.

Tampa Bay (Un88.5 – projected 87 wins)

Really believed the Rays would to come back to earth after unforeseen 2008 campaign. Tampa Bay is in wild card contention at the minimum, how they finish on the road (18-26 presently) will go a long way in determining final results. They will not have the benefit of playing the NL East any longer, whom they were 12-3 against.

Toronto (Un72 – projected 79 wins)

Though this prediction appears to be a loser, if Roy Halladay is traded soon, have to think this still could be good, with 35 of the Blue Jays remaining 62 games against Red Sox, Yankees and Rays.

Baltimore (Un78.5 – projected 73 wins)

The Orioles do have some positives, with young talent starting to emerge in spots. Nevertheless, too challenging a division has the Birds falling short.

Detroit (Ov81.5 – projected 89 wins)

Detroit made too many wise decisions in the off-season not to be better than last year. With improved defense, a potent batting order and better than presumed bullpen, this is the team to beat in AL Central.

Chic. White Sox (Ov77.5 – projected 83 wins)

The peripheral numbers suggest nothing more than a .500 team and have to agree. This is still accurate enough to project a correct prognostication for the White Sox.

Minnesota (Ov83.5 – projected 82 wins)

You never count Minnesota out until they are dead. Manager Ron Gardenhire is one of the best and the Twins +29 in runs RS/RA suggests they could well compete with Detroit (+32) down the stretch and go Over the total.

Kansas City (Un76.5 – projected 68 wins)

The Royals higher expectations have met resistance, as sorry offense that is 29th in runs scored, wastes too many good outings by starting pitchers, who feel compelled to be almost perfect to win.

Cleveland (Ov85.5 – projected 64 wins)

Having seen Cleveland a few times in spring training, I really believed the Indians had enough offense to overcome below average staff. Could not have been more wrong than Washington (past and present), believing stimulus packages are solution to fixing economy.

L.A. Angels (Ov88.5 – projected 92 wins)

Even with the preseason injuries, who would have thought journeyman Matt Palmer would have more wins as starting pitcher (7), than John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar (5) combined and the Angels would be on pace to win 92 games at break. Juan Rivera, Bobby Abreu, Chone Figgins and Torii Hunter have kept Los Angeles busy on the base paths with top hitting team and second in runs scored.

Texas (Ov74 – projected 89 wins)

The Rangers can still hit, averaging 4.9 runs per game, but it has been the pitching that has turned Texas into division and wild card contender. After years of having pathetic pitching, the Rangers are middle of the pack in runs surrendered at 4.6 per game, thanks to off-season regiment and organizational influence. Spotted preseason banter and jumped on board.

Seattle (Un73 – projected 85 wins)

Is it possible the Mariners are really fifth in runs given up? I can not see this holding up, especially with 25th ranked offense. Seattle is 21-13 in one run games, which has kept the Mariners afloat.

Oakland (Un82.5 – projected 70 wins)

“Moneyball” is about as relevant as the Stone Temple Pilots these days, with the Athletics having more “For Sale” signs than a neighborhood full of foreclosures.

Total Betting Withdrawal Today

This is never a fun day. The whole Home Run Derby is a mild distraction Monday night, watching long prestigious shots that look like they could hit the Mississippi River on the one bounce in St. Louis, but that is not what I’m talking about. This is about no real sports to bet on. There two days every year, where no major sports are available to wager on, the day before and after the baseball All-Star game.

Today is the worst of the two days by far in my opinion, because most of the time there is a WNBA game, horse racing or something to at least think about betting on, but for this Monday, well it stinks. (Couldn’t use the word I wanted)

I mean really, think about it, especially when it comes to basketball followed by baseball. You study, analyze and go over a myriad of possibilities for months daily and suddenly; you’re Will Smith in “I am Legend”, nothing to do. Damn it’s not fair.

So what does a sports bettor do, this is what I’m thinking about. I bought a fresh batch of college and pro football annuals, so this year instead of working 80+ hours a week getting to know all the ins and outs of all the teams at the end of August, I won’t procrastinate and get a head start.

(Is this Tim Tebow’s sixth year of eligibility?) In fact, I just received in the mail my 2009 StatFox Edge (cheesy plug) and I’ll start combing thru what college starters are coming back, along with the all important quarterback position and the number of linemen and backups reporting. Actually this is really a good idea, because the last time I was truly prepared for almost anything was my sister’s wedding and that was because my parents were all over me.

Don’t misunderstand, I’m ready to go when the bell sounds, it’s the whole preparation deal is not my strongest suit. I’ve checked around and New England, the Giants and Philadelphia look like Super Bowl potential teams at Bookmaker.com, along with the defending champion Steelers. Pittsburgh has plenty to admire, nevertheless, I seldom wager on NFL futures on last year’s champions.

Gee, I wonder if Brett Favre is going to sign with Minnesota, they even have a picture on the internet of the place he bought. Or possibly, Favre’s going into real estate investment after staying up late one night and watching one of the guru’s talk about buying homes “with almost nothing down”.

“Hi I’m Brett Favre and I’ve made millions playing football and turned into prima donna, however, I think I retired for the last time and now am buying real estate properties across the country, trying to improve my image and doing my part to stimulate the economy, all while wearing my Wrangler jeans.”

I thought of something else I could do, review all my notes I made on baseball before the season. That might be a pretty good way to see if what I believed is still true or am I living under false pretense. I think the last time I did this Vida Blue was pitching in the All-Star game as a rookie. I’m having an average baseball season by my standards; maybe a refresher is a good idea.
I have golf wagering down cold and would study the British Open this week anyways, but now I have to fit it in somewhere the next couple of days.

This is invigorating thinking about being productive with this time off. I can catch up, look ahead and act like people that really work for a living.

Come Wednesday morning, I’ll be waiting at this computer for Thursday’s eight baseball games to have official odds, because that is what gambling degens like me do, live for the action.

Written by Red Wydley.

Wagering on the Home Run Derby

Over the weekend an unofficial poll was taken and 52+ percent of the people given the choice between watching the All-Star game or the Home Run Derby preferred to watch the latter. While that fits nicely into Major League baseball wanting to promote the entire event, the folks at FOX Sports can’t be crazy about the outcome.

The Home Run Derby is meaningless fun and eight contestants have been chosen, here is a breakdown of what to look for, with odds courtesy of DiamondSportsbook.com.

Albert Pujols (+200)

Baseball’s best player will have a few inherent advantages, with one being in his own home park and being able to stay emotionally charged with fan support. Pujols is a legitimate Triple Crown threat, leading the National League in home runs (32), runs batted in (87) and fourth in batting average (.332). Pujols should hit over 50 home runs for the first time in his career and will try to not alter his swing too much to win this contest, not wanting to mess with it after coming out of mild slump. The Redbird first baseman is odds-on favorite to win after making semis two seasons ago and runner-up in 2003.

Ryan Howard (+250)

The 2006 champion is tied for fifth in the National League with 22 dingers and will have fan support at Busch Stadium, being a Missouri native. Howard’s bat has been a trifle slower in 2009, but his uppercut swing against beach ball tosses is tailor-made for this event. His biggest worry is being too jacked-up and expending a great deal of energy early.

Adrian Gonzalez (+500)

Gonzalez is the first Padre to being in this event since 1992, when Fred McGriff and Gary Sheffield were participants and the game was in San Diego. Gonzalez is tied for second in the senior circuit with 24 home runs and his 67 walks in 88 games is sure to double, being San Diego’s only true threat in the lineup. The easy-going first baseman could make a name for himself in winning The Derby, since it will be the only time you will hear or see him based on the Friars play this season.

Prince Fielder (+500)

After failing to hit 40 home runs last season, Fielder is back on pace in 2009 and has to be darkhorse for this competition. He has the power to compete and like Howard has natural uppercut swing. His downfall could be the heat and humidity of St. Louis and using up a lot of energy early and not having much in the tank if he would make the final round.

Brandon Inge (+1200)

This is turning out to be quite a season of change of Inge. After being the Detroit catcher in the middle of 2008 campaign, Inge was moved back to his more normal third base position to improve Tigers defense. Though not a noted power hitter, Inge has 21 long balls this season, playing for division leader and was voted on by the fans to make the All-Star game. He probably more than anyone knows his hard work has paid off in good fortune and will be excited about gaining notoriety. Definite long shot.

Joe Mauer (+800)

Mauer’s inclusion in the Home Run Derby is somewhat mystery based on volume; however this could be a precursor of things to come. Mauer leads the Major Leagues in hitting with .373 batting average. He has a career high 15 homers at the break, despite playing in only 64 games due to missing the first few weeks of the season. At 26, he starting to show the track of top notch player whose power numbers go up with age. He’ll be trying to two in a row for Minnesota players, as he is the other half of the M&M boys, with Justin Morneau last year’s champion.

Nelson Cruz (+600)

The most exciting player in last’s year Home Run Derby was Josh Hamilton of Texas, who was too tired to finish the deal after putting on a memorable show early on. Nelson Cruz has 22 shots that have cleared fences this season and Cruz has stated he expects to be in the thick of the action, though doesn’t see himself hitting 28 in the first round like Hamilton his last season.

Carlos Pena (+600)

The American League’s leading home run hitter is truly honored to make the team as replacement for Dustin Pedroia, who instead went to be with pregnant wife. Pena has found a home in Tampa Bay and the slugging first baseman has 24 home runs and is another darkhorse, if he can keep emotions in check.

Winner –Albert Pujols
Runner up - Carlos Pena

Last Day of Baseball Betting for now

It wasn’t perfection, thanks to the Nats rapping out 21 hits, but 2-1 will do. Today we have an 89.4 percent system in the Keystone State. Though I was personally 1-2, had a winner here and look to make in five straight. Top Trend is perfect 10-0. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday: The victory over the Yankees on Saturday marked the fourth time in nine games on its current homestand that Mike Scioscia's Angels team has won a game in which it had trailed by four-or-more runs. Think that's no big deal? It's only the fifth time since 1900 that a major league team has done so, and the first time since the St. Louis Browns earned four such wins during a 20-game homestand back in June 1940! This is also the first time in the team's 49-year history that the Angels have won four such games in the same month - single homestand or no. (Thanks, Elias)

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like Pittsburgh with a money line of +150 or more, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for five or more earned runs, against opponent with a hot bullpen who’s WHIP is under 1.200 the last 10 games. The last three years this is wondrous system at 34-3.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Tampa Bay Rays are 10-0 in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 over the last two seasons. The average wining margin has been 3.4 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) I’ve hit four in a row; let’s make it five with the battling Birds of Baltimore with starting pitcher Brad Bergesen. (Say that fast five times)

New StatFox Football Annual on Sale – Must for Every Sports Bettor

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In Search of Super Saturday

Winner, winner chicken dinner. I said I felt lucky and we nailed all four plays to get us back over 60 percent. Speaking of lucky, I hit another Free Play and go to the Land of 10,000 Lakes to hopefully deliver another. Have a 100 percent reverse Trend and today’s Best System is 85.7 percent. Good Luck.

Baseball Bits: It might only last a day, but 3Daily Winners is #1 in MLB at Free Sports Monitor. I’m not a D-backs fan, but I love the way Dan Haren is pitching. He’s totally dominating. Not saying this is play, however Baltimore is 7-0 after being shutout at Camden Yards. The Left Coast Connection loves L.A. today, playing the two teams for a combined 15-0 today (Halos 9-0, Dodgers 6-0).

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175, who are run of the mill AL offensive team scoring 4.7 to 5.2 runs a game, against a descent starter (ERA of 4.20 or lower), after a combined score of four runs or less. The Red Sox fit the criteria for a system that is 36-6, 85.7 percent since President Bill Clinton bars federal funding for any research on human cloning.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Washington Nationals are 0-12 in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs a game in the second half of the season over the last two years.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Hey this is fun, I’ve hit three in a row here and like the White Sox to continue my winning streak.

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'Haunted' Milwaukee Hotel Spooks Baseball Teams

Saturday, July 11, 2009

Associated Press

MILWAUKEE — First Carlos Gomez heard voices. Then he watched his iPod go haywire after he got out of the shower, sending him scrambling for the lobby without stopping to put on his pants and shoes.

After last year's experience, the Minnesota Twins outfielder didn't want to go back to Milwaukee's Pfister Hotel. But Gomez had to stay there when the Twins were in town to play the Brewers last month, so he brought some protection: teammate-turned-roommate Francisco Liriano and a Bible.

"Everything's scary," Gomez said. "Everything in the hotel, the paintings and pictures, it's a lot of old, crazy stuff. No good, man. No good."

The Pfister is Milwaukee's most regal address, having hosted every U.S. president since William McKinley and scores of celebrities who can take a self-guided tour of the hotel's Victorian art collection. Today, it's the place to stay for upscale business travelers and out-of-town visitors, including many Major League Baseball teams. Commissioner Bud Selig, a Milwaukee native, is a frequent visitor.

But some players don't care for the 116-year-old hotel's posh accommodations and reputation for privacy. They swear it's haunted.

Gomez, San Francisco's Pablo Sandoval, St. Louis' Brendan Ryan and several Florida Marlins all say they've had odd experiences, though Ryan later said nothing really happened. Others aren't willing to talk publicly about what they've seen and heard.

Brewers visiting clubhouse manager Phil Rozewicz has heard it all from sleepy-eyed players who would rather hang out at Miller Park than spend one minute more than they have to at the Pfister.

"There was a rookie ball player and he was back in his room and he woke up in the middle of the night and his blinds were open, the window was opened and he was panicked," Rozewicz said.

"So he went into the bathroom, splashed water on his face, came back out and went to bed. Shut the blinds, the window. Woke up in the morning. Same thing. Slept on the couch in the lobby the next night. Refused to go to his room. Finally, went to a Motel 6 or whatever up the street and just stayed there."

Of course, some of this could be mischievous teammates pulling pranks. But Pfister ghost stories go well beyond the ballpark.

Allison Jornlin, who leads haunted history tours for the folklore research organization Milwaukee Ghosts, said guests have reported seeing a "portly, smiling gentleman" roaming the halls, riding the elevator and even walking his dog. The apparition is said to resemble Charles Pfister, who founded the hotel with his father, Guido.

"His ghost is thought, usually, to behave very well," Jornlin said. "But MLB players seem to bring out his mischievous side."

Why's that?

"Obviously, he's a Brewers fan," Jornlin said.

But even some of the Brewers won't stay there in the offseason.

"Even if I come into town for FanFest or whatever, I'm staying somewhere else," said Brewers center fielder Mike Cameron, who moved his family to another hotel after one night last offseason. "I mean, it's not a bad place. But there has been a lot of stories, a lot of creepy things that have gone on."

Hotel general manager Joe Kurth won't acknowledge any specific ghost stories from ballplayers or other guests, citing privacy concerns. But he doesn't shy away from the rumors, suggesting that guests interested in seeing a spirit might want to stay in the hotel's historic wing.

The Pfister does have its fans. Colorado Rockies manager Jim Tracy loves the quiet atmosphere, though the same couldn't be said for Tracy's players when he was managing the Los Angeles Dodgers.

"I was hearing suggestions, to the point that they were saying, "I've got to go to a different hotel,"' Tracy said.

That sounds familiar to Gomez, who said he hears voices and noises when he stays there and had his worst experience after hopping out of the shower last year.

He'd just started putting his clothes on when his iPod started playing with a static noise. He grabbed it and the iPod changed music suddenly before going to static again.

"I grabbed my pants and my shoes and I ran to the lobby," Gomez said.

Gomez wishes the Twins would stay somewhere else.

"I'm scared to go there," he said. "They should change the hotel. Everybody here doesn't like the hotel. Why (do) they always put us in the same hotel when you can't sleep?"

Trying to roar into weekend wagering

Another winning day gives us 137-92-3 record with tomorrow being exactly three months since this started. We’ll try and crawl back over 60 percent with a Top System that is 35-6. Feeling a little lucky and going to hand out TWO perfect Trends for today. My Free Play is one of five today, which you can sign up for to the right, however this is my favorite. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday: The Florida Marlins trailed the Arizona in the sixth inning, 7-0, but came roaring back to win, 14-7. Only two other teams in major-league history have won by seven or more after trailing by seven or more in the sixth inning or later: the Cardinals in 1911 against the Reds (trailed 8-0, won, 15-8) and the Indians in 1999 against the Devil Rays (trailed 10-2, won, 20-11).

It's the fifth time this season that a team won a game after trailing by seven or more runs in the sixth inning or later. That matches the total number of wins in the major leagues over the previous five seasons combined. The Marlins have had only one previous win like that in team history, at Fenway Park in 2003. (Thanks Elias)

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites like Detroit with a money line of -125 to -175, who are pedestrian AL offensive team scoring 4.7 to 5.2 runs per game, against a good starter (ERA of 4.20 or less), after a combined score of four runs or less. This systems clocks in at 35-6, 85.4 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Jeff Neimann and Tampa Bay are 8-0 as a favorite of -110 or higher and Jon Lester and Boston are 11-0 when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Have won two straight and look for a trio here at 3Daily Winners and like Texas as Top Play.

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MLB Series Wagering- White Sox at Twins

The Detroit Tigers lead the American League Central Division and their two closest pursuers will tangle in the Twin Cities, each with eyes on closing the gap before the All-Star break. After winning home series last weekend against the front-running Tigers, Minnesota (43-43, -4-1 units) had set its sights on gathering momentum on their nine-game homestand. Unfortunately, faster then you can say “Bruno”, that attempt has been blunted with three straight losses to the Yankees. The Twins have to pick themselves up and get ready to face divisional rival, who is playing very good baseball also.

The White Sox (44-41, +3.4 units) have won nine of last 12 to propel themselves past Minnesota and are 6-0-2 in last eight series. "The White Sox are playing very good baseball," manager Ron Gardenhire said. "If we go out and play like we did against the Yankees, we'll probably get our butts kicked here at home again. That's not too much fun." The Twins hope to recapture magic and are 40-17 at the Metrodome vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse.

Chicago’s resurgence has been led by the offense and improved starting pitching. On the season, the White Sox are averaging 4.6 runs per game (11th in AL), however in last dozen outings, they have tallied a terrific 6.3 RPG. Manager Ozzie Guillen understands that continuing to play well won’t be easy in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. The Pale Hose have lost four in a row in Minnesota and nine of 10 overall. He’ll have to hope his Friday starter John Danks (7-6, 3.76 ERA) can provide a spark. Danks has 1.51 ERA in his last five starts and Bookmaker.com has Chicago as +115 underdogs, which suits Danks and teammates, who are 11-4 (+9.9 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last two seasons.

Minnesota will counter with Nick Blackburn (7-4, 2.94), who has been moved up a day because of illness to Glen Perkins. Blackburn has been imposing in his own right; with 1.81 ERA the last nine times he’s toed the rubber, which has included three complete games. Blackburn and the Twins are 10-1 off consecutive losses.

Game 1 Edge: Twins

After being scratched Wednesday, Perkins (4-4, 4.38) is expected to give it go in Game 2. The left-hander is at his best when he has the opposition wearing out the Astroturf, beating ground ball after ground ball and keeping his infielders busy. Coming into the series, Minnesota had won 37 of last 54 games against teams with winning records and will want to reestablish that dominance.

Earlier, had mentioned the White Sox were receiving strong starting pitching and Gavin Floyd (6-6, 4.43) is another example. After throwing like the pitcher Philadelphia had given up on, Floyd put together a string of eight quality starts, which featured a glittering ERA of 1.39, before being roughed up for five runs in just over five innings at Kansas City in last start.

Watch for outcome of opening tilt, since Floyd is 4-0 if Chicago is off a loss. Otherwise the Sox are 7-2 in last nine as visitors and 15-3 in Game 2’s.

Game 2 Edge: White Sox

If the series is tied or Chicago had won previous two games, skipper Guillen has to like his chances going into All-Star break with a win. His starter is Mark Buehrle (9-2, 3.14), who will be flying to St. Louis after the conclusion of the contest to take part in fourth All-Star game. The lefthander has been nothing short of brilliant all year and the Twinkies have issues with lefties, posting 12-17 record coming into the series.

Scott Baker (6-7, 5.31) has not been nearly as proficient for Minnesota. If the former ace of the staff is unscathed one time thru the lineup, he’s done little to make adjustments going forward, which is odd for a veteran chucker, and is lit up the next time around. Difficult to like Baker in this spot, since he has 6.85 ERA in nine appearances against Chicago and Buehrle is 23-13, with 3.72 ERA versus the Twins.

Game 3 Edge: White Sox

This is a really challenging series to pick a winner, with Minnesota having history edge and Chicago playing better baseball. With the Twins not hitting as well and White Sox having more favorable pitching matchups, will support the Pale Hose and keep fingers crossed that is the correct wager.

Bookmaker.com series odds: Chicago +115, Minnesota -145

3DW Pick: White Sox

2009 Record – 4-7

3DW Baseball Betting Beat

The three things you can count on in life are death, taxes and change. In each case, how we react to them helps sculpt our lives. In baseball, one aspect that has changed dramatically is pitchers willingness to throw inside. There are reasons this has occurred. Starting when a pitcher tries to throw inside and misses, he could either hit a batter hanging over the inside part of the plate or throw room-service pitch that is launched over the fence. Pitching away plays to the batters weakness, making him chase and swing unnaturally at outside pitches.

The problem with this style or mentality of pitching is batters have no fear. Take the Los Angeles Angels pitching staff. Only the Toronto Blue Jays have been even close to suffering as much bad luck to the staff as the Angels. To start the season, John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar started on the disabled list. Lackey and Santana have returned, with neither pitching like they have in the past. Escobar gave it try, but whispers out of Anaheim have many wondering if his career is threatened. Dustin Moseley was supposed to step in and he too ended up on the DL and Nick Adenhart was tragically killed.

The Angels were forced to look anywhere for healthy bodies to pitch, which has contributed to them being 26th in runs allowed at five per game.

The departure of Francisco Rodriguez set off a change of events to the bullpen. Brian Fuentes was brought in to be the closer and looked like a batting practice pitcher for almost eight weeks, with an ERA of almost eight at his lowest point. Scott Shields was always Mr. Durability, until his plant leg and knee gave out, requiring season-ending knee surgery. Supposed closer in the making Jose Arredondo is now in Triple-A trying to get back in groove, while fighting elbow issues.

This has left manager Mike Scioscia and pitching coach Mike Butcher with a huge dilemma almost every night. The Los Angeles bullpen is 28th in ERA, with opposing batters hitting a blistering .278 against them.

Part of the problem besides command, is lack of knowledge or ability to own the inside part of the plate. Texas Ranger and nearly washed up Andruw Jones hit four home runs in last two games against the Angels and was never threatened with inside pitch. The Rangers hit five home runs in Game 3 to take the series. Wouldn’t you think one Angels’ pitcher would have been peeved and drilled somebody? Nope. They just took it and start Friday’s action in second place, behind Texas.

The easy excuse is “that’s not how the game is played anymore” Really? Do you think Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Zack Greinke, Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana and Justin Verlander to name a few, just work the outside black of the plate? Of course not. Each pitcher effectively works both sides of the plate and is unafraid to come-up-and-in to move a batter who looks a little too comfortable in the box.

Unless the Angels suddenly turn into the 1927 Yankees, it’s very difficult to place a wager on them on a consistent basis, since no lead is safe and even when they do lose, the pitchers are only too happy to just accept it and move on to next game.

Don’t know if you saw this the other day, but it is EXTREMELY simple to determine what is wrong with the Cleveland Indians this season. On average, they have allowed almost 14 opposing players per game to reach bases (13.6) when combining hits and walks. This is the highest number in baseball (Yes, even Washington is better), no wonder they have lost -22.7 units, despite scoring over five runs per game.

Dan Haren of Arizona is going to the All-Star; however he hasn’t received near the notoriety he deserves for his season’s work. His record is respectable 8-5, with the Diamondbacks 10-7 for -0.2 units in his 17 starts. Consider Haren has allowed more than three earned runs just once this season. (May 23 against his former team Oakland) A total of 14 times he has pitched a minimum of six innings and surrendered two or fewer runs for a record of 8-5, which is nondescript, considering the production. His ERA is flabbergasting 2.16 and in his five defeats, the Snakes have scored THREE total runs. Consider if the Arizona scored below their average and totaled just four runs per game in Haren’s losses (He allowed eight total runs in defeats), he would have 13-0 record, at +10.85 units and the most celebrated pitcher in the game.

The Florida Marlins are hanging around in contention in the NL East, even though their supposed strength coming into the season has not materialized. The Marlins staff of fine young hurlers is 12th in ERA in the National League and they are ordinary eighth in quality starts. How has Florida succeeded? The Fish are granulating left-handed pitchers, posting 20-11 record, picking up +10.1 units. Florida averages 0.5 more runs per game against southpaws (4.9 vs. 4.4) compared to right-handers. It’s the way the rotation works out; nonetheless, the Marlins are tied for third in facing the most lefties, which seems peculiar at this juncture given there results. What is even more outlandish is the fact Florida pitchers have conceded one less run per game (4.1 vs 5.1) when a left-hander starts for the opposition.

Working on Thunderous Thursday

Nice way to wipeout Monday with 3-0 day on Wednesday. We’ll try and match it, starting with 92.9 percent system that comes with high price. Dug up another perfect trend, this time in the American League and though I was 1-2 on personal plays, had a winner here yesterday. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday: Forty-two year old Boston knuckle-baller Tim Wakefield is now 11-3. Only two other pitchers had 11 wins at the All-Star break at the age of 42-or-older: Warren Spahn for the Braves in 1963 (12-4) and Phil Niekro for the Yankees in 1984 (11-4).

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like San Diego, with a money line of +175 to +250, who are having trouble making connections, batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a steaming hot starting pitcher, who has WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. The price is heavy but the results are 52-4, 92.9 percent since 2005.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Boston Red Sox are 12-0 against the money line after five or more consecutive home games this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Tough card today in my opinion, with the only team from L.A. on my personal menu to come away a winner.

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Betting Baseball Looking Forward by Understanding Past

The interpretation of how baseball was to be viewed differently came about with Bill James book “Baseball Abstract”. He and his fellow scribes developed an illuminating way to no longer take a batting average at face value, rather look inside the numbers to understand what it really might means. The term “sabermetric” became part of the language of baseball in the late 1980’s and still is widely renowned in today’s world.

This has lead to other methods of interpreting statistics, opening the door for Baseball Prospectus and Baseball-Reference.com to name a couple. This in-depth type of analysis of numbers has benefited fans and those who love to wager on baseball. For those seeking opportunity to place futures wagers on baseball, being able to see halfway thru the season eliminates some of the guess work that appeared cumbersome back in March.

Today you have a track record to follow and an inkling what might occur in the last 81 games of the baseball season. The oddsmakers do also, and a Detroit Tigers preseason wager of Over/Under 81.5 wins at DiamondSportsbook.com looks safer today then it did before the season started. The Tigers price of -140 to win the Central Division appears to be a much more palatable bet than possibly money laid down on Cleveland before opening day to conquer the division.

One element of James’ work that is as fresh today as it was when he first brought up the topics is the runs scored vs. runs allowed aspect of the game. If you score more runs then your opponent, you can not lose. If you score a great deal more runs then the opposition, then you might have a dominate team. From the wagering standpoint, the value in this information is which teams are playing to their potential, which are playing above their potential and which are playing below. The last two elements are especially valuable, since if a team or teams continue on the same path, ultimately, they should reach their water mark and play accordingly.

Our goal in making long and short term wagers for baseball is to ensure equal representation of all teams. Every Major League squad had to play 81 games or half the schedule. This presents a balanced look at all the teams.

How this exercise works is to multiply the number of runs scored and square it, followed by doing the same with number of runs allowed. We’ll use Los Angeles Dodgers as the example.

Dodgers runs scored – 391
Dodgers runs allowed – 307

391 x 391 = 152881
307 x 307 = 94249

Add the two numbers together and divide the runs scored into the total to achieve a percentage.

152881 + 94249 = 247130
152881 divided by 247130 = .618

Now take the number 81 (half the season) and multiply by .618, this gives you a total of 50.05. What this means is the Dodgers should have a record of 50-31, based on runs scored and allowed and their actual record was 51-30, thus right on schedule.

Any difference greater than three games means something is occurring that needs to be understood. Typically, bullpen production or lack of it is the biggest culprit in terms of wins and losses. Below is the complete list showing each team’s actual record and record based on RS/RA methodology.

American League (actual – projected)

Boston 49-32 48-33
NY Yankees 48-33 46-35
Tampa Bay 44-37 49-32
Toronto 42-39 44-37
Baltimore 36-45 34-47

Detroit 44-37 42-39
Chicago WS 42-39 41-40
Minnesota 41-40 43-38
Kansas City 35-46 33-48
Cleveland 32-49 38-43

L.A. Angels 46-35 43-38
Texas 45-36 43-38
Seattle 42-39 38-43
Oakland 35-46 36-45

AL Observations – The most notable team to standout is the defending American League champ Tampa Bay Rays. The Tampa Bay bullpen did have early issues, however has settled down. The offense will go thru streaks of inconsistency, with as many free swingers as they have. If the Rays improve on the road (18-26) in the second half of the season and do a better job in one-run games (9-14), they could really make the AL East a three team race down the stretch.

The AL Central will be about what team puts it together and can play solid baseball for extended period of time. From wagering aspect, Cleveland looks to hold value, only if their pitching staff does a better job holding the opposition. A collection of mediocre starting pitchers is made worse with bullpen ERA of 5.13 and 50% save percentage. If the Indians can muster even average pitching numbers out of its staff, they will be more of a Play On team in last half of the year.

It looks like the Angels and Texas will battle for the AL West crown. Normally, when a team overachieves like Los Angeles has, it’s due to the bullpen. This couldn’t be any further from the truth concerning the Angels when reviewing season numbers. However, the group has started to stabilize, lowering ERA by almost a run over the last three weeks and kept them in games, with Halos No.1 hitting team in baseball (up to 4th in runs scored) doing the rest.

National League (actual – projected)

Philadelphia 43-38 44-37
Florida 41-40 38-43
N.Y. Mets 39-42 38-43
Atlanta 39-42 39-42
Washington 24-57 30-51

St. Louis 43-38 42-39
Milwaukee 43-38 42-39
Chic. Cubs 41-40 41-40
Cincinnati 41-40 36-45
Houston 40-41 37-44
Pittsburgh 37-44 41-40

L.A. Dodgers 51-30 50-31
San Francisco 44-37 45-36
Colorado 42-39 43-38
San Diego 35-46 30-41
Arizona 32-49 36-45

NL Observations – Right now the NL East is the Phillies to lose, with more hangers-on than true contenders. Florida has overachieved largely due to 14-9 record in one-run games and lambasting left-hand pitching with 21-9 mark. The Florida bullpen has a real oddity in the works and chances are these numbers will come towards the center, with uncertain impact to be determined, yet whacky nonetheless. On the road, the Marlins pen-sters have 2.26 ERA with 8-1 save record. At Landshark Stadium, these hurlers are a mess with 5.22 ERA and 10 blown saves in 22 chances.

Question- Who has the better offense, Atlanta or Washington? After half the season, each team had scored 344 total runs. The difference is the Nationals pitchers have surrendered 93 more runs. The Nats have mostly kiddie-corps for starters and will see fair share of good and bad outings. However, the bullpen, well yuck is one word that won’t offend anyone and they are the reason Washington is baseball’s biggest underachievers. A woebegone 7-29 record, with ERA over 5.5 and more blown saves than a Capitols goalie has in a month (16 in 30 attempts), leads the Nationals down a cheerless path. If they can dig up any relief help (cadavers welcome), Washington will have Play On possibilities when hitters are on hot streaks.

The NL Central doesn’t offer much insight who will eventually win the division; nevertheless, Cincinnati could be heading south. Thanks to non-starters posting imposing 3.54 ERA and closer Francisco Cordero leading efforts to finish off games with 81.5 save percentage (team’s record), the Reds are playing better than they should. This team is worth watching, with Play Against potential. Pittsburgh has underachieved, hard to consider that really newsworthy.

The Giants might be the biggest surprise of all 30 teams that take the diamond daily; however the numbers back them up as not being flukes. They have been extremely fortunate to use virtually the minimum of starters, until Randy Johnson recently became sidelined. Keep a weary eye on San Fran. The Padres were supposed to have a fowl smell and chances are this will happen by all indicators in the second half. With no offense beyond Adrian Gonzalez and pitchers certain to wear down, it is time to play the Chubby Checker song “Limbo Rock” and wonder how low can San Diego go.

Arizona should be better and will have moments throughout the second half of the season, if offensive can score runs. Difficult to be demonstrative about a team looking to move starting pitchers to contenders.

Lining up for Wednesday Winners

It’s it great to follow up losing day with winning day? That’s what we did at 3Daily Winners and we’ll try to keep it moving forward with a Perfect Trend in afternoon action. The Best System is also a matinee affair and is in the burn your hand on door handle desert sun. I’m on 10-3 run and you can get my top play below and sign up to receive them daily to the right >. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday: Barry Zito pitched eight and one-third scoreless innings in the Giants 3-0 win over Florida in San Francisco. Between his major-league debut in 2000 and the end of the 2004 season, Zito threw eight-plus innings in a game without allowing a run 11 times, the seventh-highest total in the majors. But this was only Zito's second such game since 2005. The other was last August at San Diego.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like San Diego with a money line of +125 to +175, who can’t hit a lick with batting average of .250 or less, against a decent NL starting pitcher (ERA between 3.70 to 4.20), with an on-base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games. Since 1997, this system checks in at 41-9, 82 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) This might be like the Republicans wondering about Mrs. Palin, but the Washington Nationals are 0-12 in road games after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) With a number of my friends going to Cubs game in afternoon and taking train to the South Side, taking the White Sox again today.

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Cleveland woes could continue against rugged system

When last season looked like a washout for the Cleveland Indians, they did what they could to trade off assets like C. C. Sabathia and Casey Blake, in looking towards the future. The way Cleveland has played in 2009; it’s hard to say what they will do for an encore after being so miserable.

The Indians offense by all appearances is still productive, ranking sixth in runs scored at 5.2. The Tribe’s team batting average is ordinary at .261 and they have been slumping of late, hitting under .250 as club the last 20 games, despite hanging 15 runs on Oakland last Friday.

While some will quote baseball statistics and point out – what you see is not what you get – the fact is Cleveland pitching shows precisely what it has to offer.

The Tribe allows 5.5 runs per game, same as Washington, making this tandem the two worst in baseball. Cleveland hurlers surrender the second most free passes at 3.9 per game, which is huge problem if you concede 9.8 hits per contest (29th), meaning opposing team have almost 14 base-runners each night, not including errors, placing tremendous pressure on the offense to score six runs every contest at a minimum.

If starting pitchers David Huff, Tomo Ohka, Carl Pavano, Jeremy Sowers and tonight’s starter Aaron Laffey (3-1, 3.93 ERA) don’t exactly seem impressive; think about what hitters in the opposite clubhouse are dreaming of. Adding fuel to this combustible situation is the Indians bullpen, which has 5.13 ERA, 12-17 record and paid closer Kerry Wood (he’d be fired as car salesman for not closing) leads a pen that is 50-50 (14 of 28) in save opportunities this season. It’s no wonder Cleveland is 33-51 and lost 22.8 units.

The Indians after losing 10-6 to AL Central division adversary Chicago last evening will face an aging pitcher who likely salvaged his career in Charlotte of all places. Jose Contreras (3-7, 4.84) at age 37, probably can figure his best days are behind him and it looked like it might be way behind him after starting 0-5 with an ERA over eight, placing him behind the 8-ball so to speak.

He went to Triple-A Charlotte, worked on his mechanics and rewound his career. Since returning to the White Sox (43-30, +3.6 units), Contreras is 3-2 with a sparkling 2.17 ERA in five starts. He’s been part of the Sox surge which has led to 12 wins in last 16 outings. “I’ve got it back,” said Contreras, when asked about 3-0 record in last four starts.

With Cleveland pitching in ruins, the batters not hitting as well and having to tackle a starting pitcher in a zone, this sets up as awful situation for the Tribe and DiamondSportsbook.com has the Indians as +130 underdogs.

Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher, who are cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a hot starting pitcher, with WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts.

This system comes up fairly frequently and is 110-34 since 2005, 76.4 percent. In 2009, the numbers have improved slightly at 12-3, adding even more confidence. And speaking of confidence that is exactly what White Sox hitters have after posting big crooked numbers at US Cellular Field, with 17-4 mark after scoring nine or more runs. Even more impressive for the Pale Hose is 13-1 record at home after a game where they had six or more extra base hits over the last two seasons.

For the sports bettor looking for one big play tonight, this might be the one at affordable number.

Umpire Report for Baseball Bettors

In searching thru various forums, I will come across enough baseball bettors, who place real value on who is calling balls and strikes. Though this is often an overlooked aspect of sports wagering, much like meaningful trends, it is foolish not to consider, especially when extreme cases are involved. Much like all but washed-up Mike Hampton of Houston having 14-3 career record against Pittsburgh, including four of his five wins this season; it pays to know all the little oddities that surround baseball to have fuller understanding of winning wagers.

The home plate umpire can and does have a direct impact on every game they call. How often do you see the frustrated batter or pitcher either saying something or emitting body language that you understand as the observer they believed the person with the chest protector missed a call?

Commissioner Bud Selig has unified the umpires, eliminating the way American League and National League umps called games and placed them on higher alert by monitoring their games with special cameras to grade them on regular basis. Though this generally has brought the disparity between the league’s closer together, without question, certain men in blue call the game differently and players have to adjust.

For sports bettors, the greatest influence an umpire can have is on the total. Though the strike-zone is supposed to be uniform, much like pass interference in football, different people have differing views as to what they see. For the sake simplicity and accuracy, we only looked at adjudicators that have called balls and strikes for a minimum of 12 games in 2009. Here are the top UNDER umpires this season to date.

1) Andy Fletcher 13-3-2
2) Scott Barry 13-4-1
3) Brian Gorman 12-4-1
4) Fieldin Culbreth 11-4-1
5) Bill Miller 13-5

Collectively, this contingent is 45.5 units Under in the 67 games they crouched behind the catcher. In most cases, one umpire stands out for his method of calling games and Bill Miller would be the one in this group. Miller has a broader strike zone than most mediators, making him a pitchers delight behind the dish. He ranks eighth in fewest walks allowed (5.9) per game and is second in punch-outs at 15.7 per contest, among the 69 umpires that have called a dozen or more games looking in the pitchers eye.

If you happen to be attending or being able to watch a ballgame, in which our next collection of arbiters is involved behind the plate, make sure you three or more hours, since this will likely be the length of time needed to complete nine innings of baseball.

Here is the Top 5 OVER umps as baseball approaches the All-Star break.

1) Tim McClelland 12-5-2
2) Eric Cooper 12-5
3) Randy Marsh 11-5-1
4) Jim Reynolds 8-4
5) Jerry Meals 11-6-1

As you can see, this assemblage is not as one-sided in viewpoint of what they are calling as their fellow brethren in blue. This collection is 46-25 (26.4 units) Over, for a 64.7 percentage. Compare that to the Top 5 umpires who call more strikes and force hitters to have wider and longer strike zones. That collection of umps is 62-20 Under, 75.6 percent.

Most pitchers cringe at the thought of Randy Marsh behind the plate, knowing they have to get more of the plate to get strikes rung up, since he is sixth in most walks called at 8.3 per game (same as McClellend) and registers the fewest strikeouts (11.8) among all plate moderators.
It is probably not a wise choice to pick a total based on an umpire alone, but a fool and his money are soon to part if one isn’t knowledgeable who is calling ball and strikes. Remember this the next time you go to a game and hear the words bellow out, “Come on blue, get your head in the game.”

Seeking Terrific Tuesday of Wagering Action

We got hammered but good yesterday, lowering our record to more than respectable 130-87-3 over almost three months of official plays. Time for us to come back quicker than Brett Favre with a Top Trend that is 10-0. We’ll follow that up with 81.4 percent System and hopefully finish it off with a Free Play from Sal for winning slate. Good Luck.

Current Rankings in MLB:

#2 Free Sports Monitor
#3 The Sports Eye Monitor
#7 Cappers Watchdog Monitor

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like the Nationals with a money line of +100 to +150, who lack power (0.9 or less HR's a game), against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less long balls per start, with a NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 on the season. Playing this system puts you on the winning side 81.4 percent of the time since 2004. (35-8)

Free Baseball Trend -2) Adam Wainwright and the Cards are 10-0 (+11.1 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game in the second half of the season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) My pal Sal likes the Seattle to brutalize Baltimore tonight.

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San Francisco posting Giant betting numbers at home

Remember when the Los Angeles Dodgers started the season by winning their first 13 home games of the season, setting modern day record. Since then they are 15-13, still with the best overall home record, however, that could end tonight and the Dodgers have already been passed as the best bet to play in Major League Baseball by a fellow division rival.

The San Francisco Giants (45-37, +9.8 units) decided to retool what was the oldest team in the big leagues, infusing younger players with the end of the Barry Bonds era. The Giants front office was comfortable with their pitching staff, having Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum at the top of the rotation and Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez ready to emerge as youthful starters. They were supplemented with veterans Barry Zito and Randy Johnson, giving San Francisco a chance to be .500 team if the offense showed any life.

Though Sanchez and not worked out to this point, being replaced by 26-year old Ryan Sadowski at this moment, the Giants trail the Dodgers by seven games in the NL West, but have the second best record in the National League, thanks to pitching and home record. The Giants have the best ERA in the majors at 3.53 and are 27-13 at AT&T Park, picking up +13 units for supporters.

San Francisco hurlers lead baseball in strikeouts and have learned to filter fly-balls to the enormous centerfield area that looks as big as The Bay itself. With last night’s 5-4 win over Florida (43-41, +3.1 units), manager Bruce Bochy’s club is 9-3 against the NL East and have won six of last seven games on home turf.

The Giants are listed as home underdog (11-7, +5.9 units) at Bookmaker.com, thanks to pitching matchup. Barry Zito started the year fairly well, but suffered without much run support. Since then, he’s looked pretty much like the same overpaid pitcher that came across the Bay, with 4-8 record and 4.82 ERA. Zito and his teammates are +115 dogs, with total Un8. Combined, they are 4-10 in Zito’s last 14 starts as a home pooch of +110 to +150.

Florida will send out their ace Josh Johnson (7-1, 2.76), to slow down San Fran. Johnson has 14 quality starts in 17 tries in 2009, with sterling 1.128 WHIP and a better than 3-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio. The Marlins are 12-2 when Johnson starts as favorite and have won last nine outings when the right-hander has been the Game 2 starter. Florida is 15-5 OVER in road games after four straight contests where they stranded seven or less runners on base.

Despite 2.76 ERA against the Giants, Johnson has not defeated San Francisco in three previous attempts, while Zito is 3-0, conceding more than one run once in four starts versus the Fish.
First pitch is set for 7:15 Pacific and this contest is available in local markets as well as on MLB.TV, with the Giants 15-3 OVER in home games in July games.

MLB teams try to capitalize before the All-Star Break

With the 2009 All-Star game in St. Louis next Tuesday, several teams will be doing their best to position themselves to close with a flourish before the break. A number of teams can set themselves up in good spots to start the second half of the season by playing well or be undermined with doubt if they don’t play as good as they had hoped. Here is a look at four specific teams with intriguing schedules before taking a few days off to start next week.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have been in and out of first place the last couple of weeks in the National League Central and can create distance amongst its fellow rivals with a strong week of play. It won’t be easy for St. Louis, as they continue nine-game road trip against the teams in the division that are their closet competitors. Fresh off a series triumph in Cincinnati, the Redbirds are 21-19 as visitors, good for +1.1 units. Manager Tony LaRussa’s club has built a little momentum, winning four of five, after closing out June out with six losses in seven previous. Their mission starts in Milwaukee, with a three-game set. The Brewers come home after losing three of four to the Cubs and have been weaker than expected at Miller Park with 22-18 record. The Cardinals have won two of three in Milwaukee this season. After finishing up with the Brew Crew, they take the short jaunt down I-94 to Wrigley Field for three with the Cubs. Though no division title is going to be wrapped up before the All-Star game, a 4-2 week or better by the Cardinals provides a little working margin to start second half.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs were supposed to run away with the NL Central, but because of injuries, lack of consistent hitting and shaky late inning relief, Chicago is looking up at other teams within the division. The Cubs bats have shown signs of coming around, especially at home, where they are 24-14 (+3.7 units). The North-Siders are respectable fifth in ERA in the National League and have 50 quality starts, the most in the senior circuit. They are matching up with Atlanta presently and after a day off Thursday, play host to rival St. Louis. Though the Cubs have been mediocre all season, a potential 7-3 homestand has them right in the thick of division race. Series losses to Atlanta or the Cards, only raises more questions about how good this year’s Cubs team really is.

Tampa Bay Rays

The defending American League champions gladly return home after lost weekend wipeout in Texas facing the Rangers. Tampa Bay is fighting to close the gap between themselves, Boston and the Yankees. The Rays are in potentially outstanding situation to do just that with six home games, in which they should be favored in each one. Tampa Bay is 26-13 (+6.7 units) at Tropicana Field, leading baseball in runs scored at home (5.8 per game), and has Toronto and Oakland coming in. The Blue Jays and A’s both have losing records on the road this season. Tampa Bay has juicy home numbers that have any sports bettor salivating. The Rays are 89-40 at home the last two years and are 54-19 against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175. When favored as -150 or more on the ML at home, Joe Maddon’s squad is terrific 47-11. A 5-1 week gives the Rays back the momentum, as they try and hunt down the AL East favorites.

Los Angeles Angels

The Angels have won 16 of last 22 games to be back where most thought they would be in the AL West. They are matched up with other division front-runner Texas to start the week, with the series winner emerging as first place leader come Thursday. Los Angeles leads the American League in hitting at over .280 and plays a style of baseball that is reminiscent to craps. For those not familiar with the game, a point is established and many try and wager on the five remaining numbers to win money and build up bankrolls. The Angels play in much the same fashion, getting a couple of base-runners to start and cashing in with base-hits that keep the Halos runners moving on the base paths and runs being compiled. Besides being tested by Texas, the Yankees come to town for weekend series, having won 10 of 12 contests. Though starting rotation lacks more familiar names, skipper Mike Scioscia has gotten by and previously horrific bullpen is improving, getting Halos back to among the best in the American League. A 4-2 week against still competition keeps momentum building.

Back to work off holiday weekend

Came back with 2-1 Sunday and Matt goes for a second straight Free Winner. The Top Trend tumbled yesterday, however we found another perfect one on an underdog for today. With no exceptional money line systems for Monday, venture into the run line arena and uncover a beauty at 89.1 percent. Good Luck. (Articles return tomorrow)

What I learned yesterday – The Los Angeles Dodgers out-hit the San Diego 18-6 in their 7-6 victory at Petco Park on Sunday. It was the 113th time in the last 100 seasons that the Dodgers had at least 12 more hits than their opponent, but it was the first of those 113 games (all of them won by the Dodgers) decided by only one run.

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON road underdogs against a 1.5 run line like Baltimore, (Money Line =-190 to -135) revenging two straight home losses vs opponent, with a sultry starting pitcher who has ERA less than 2.50 over his last five starts. This run line system is 41-5, 89.1 percent since 1997.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Cincinnati Reds are 10-0 (+10.9 Units) against the money line after a loss by six runs or more this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Matt continued his winning ways and is on Detroit to derail Kansas City.

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Sunday Action at 3DW

I hope everyone had a great day yesterday, as 3Daily Winners was 1-2 thanks to another extra inning loss (more on that later). The lone winner was a Best System play and we have one that is 85.2 percent today in the American League. The Top Trend is perfect 10-0 in afternoon action. Good Luck.

I won't bring this up again, but I can't believe my random bad luck in extra innings. After yesterday, now 6-9 on the season in extra frames, which is just about my winning percentage over the last several years. What will probably happen is I'll go 18-0 some year I'm having terrible season and make my record look better than it is.

What I learned yesterday – The Giants 9-0 win over Houston on Saturday followed their 13-0 win over the same club on Friday night. It's the first time since 1949 that San Fran have had back-to-back shutout wins, scoring at least nine runs in each game. On July 31, 1949, Leo Durocher's New York Giants won a doubleheader at Cincinnati by 10-0 and 9-0 scores, with Larry Jansen and Adrian Zabala throwing the shutouts.

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more, who are mediocre AL offensive team, scoring 4.2 or less runs a game, against a team with a good bullpen (ERA of 3.75 or less), with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season. This system has brought home the cash 52 of 61 times since 1997 and suggests going against Seattle.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Cliff Lee and the Cleveland Indians are 10-0 vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse over the last two seasons, with average winning margin 3.6 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Matt from the LCC is backing the Chicago Cubs to win series over Milwaukee.

Fourth of July action and brief history lesson

Happy Fourth of July to All. Have a wonderful day and be smart when it comes to doing certain things on this day. A split of two extra innings games gave us a 2-1 Friday. Today we have a System that could light up the sky all by itself at 92.7 percent. The Top Trend checks in on Manny in Day 2 after suspension. Brad has been bad, as in good and offers another Free Play. Good Luck.

What I learned – During the American Revolution, the legal separation of the American colonies from Great Britain occurred on July 2, 1776, when the Second Continental Congress voted to approve a resolution of independence that had been proposed in June by Richard Henry Lee of Virginia. After voting for independence, Congress turned its attention to the Declaration of Independence, a statement explaining this decision, which had been prepared by a Committee of Five, with Thomas Jefferson as its principal author. Congress debated and revised the Declaration, finally approving it on July 4. (Thanks Wikipedia)

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Houston with a money line of +175 to +250, who batting a frigid .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a sizzling starting pitcher, who owns WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. One of the top systems of the season at 51-4, 92.7 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Los Angeles Dodgers are 15-2 when playing against a crummy team with win percentage in the 38 to 46% range this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Brad of the LCC has picked up winners in 13 of last 15 MLB plays and believes the Blue Jays will light up New York. I agree.

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A Let's Go Get'em Friday

Yesterday’s 2-1 record takes us to 125-80-3 and back over sixty percent at 60.9 percent, approaching three months of plays. The Top System was a winner yesterday and has 49-12 play up for Friday. The Top Trend reviews how the Twinkies play off a road trip. Brad of the LCC makes first appearance here at 3Daily Winners and presents his Best Play. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – With friends in town, went to the Estate House in Old Town Scottsdale. Attractive setting and high end feel the Estate House looked very good. Our waiter seemed a bit confused about a couple of things we questioned, but everything seemed in order. When our food came, one of our guests did not get their food, as the waiter said, “I thought you just wanted dessert.” Seeing she had ordered sea bass, you don’t pop that into a microwave and have a prepared meal in a few minutes.

Needless to say, we were shocked and disappointed and all pitched in to share our food with her. The manager came over and we explained what the situation and he was extremely apologetic and took a similar item off the bill and ended up bringing us three desserts expertly prepared at no charge.

The food as it turns out was fantastic, the desserts were superb and the replacement waiter was professional and upbeat. Everyone again apologized (except our original waiter – probably too embarrassed) as they made a bad situation right. This proves mistakes happen and if all of us accept responsibility for what goes wrong and takes action to correct problems, the results can still be positive. As for our original waiter, hopefully he gets his act together, otherwise he will be using these words, “Welcome to McDonald’s, would you like to try our new McCafe?”

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON road favorites like St. Louis with a money line of -125 or more, after seven or more consecutive home games, in July conflicts. This system reports winners at 80.3 percent of the time with 49-12 mark.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Minnesota Twins are 10-1 in home games after six or more consecutive road games since last season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Brad of the Left Coast Connection has nailed 10 of last 12 MLB plays and forecasts Atlanta to help continue his winning ways.

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Rack'em for a Thursday

Well hello all, had great time away, didn’t look at one baseball score or almost anything related to sports, nice mental break. When we were last here Saturday, posted 3-0 record and will look to build on that starting up again today. We return today with an 81.8 percent system. The Top Trend is flat perfect at 10-0 and the Free Pick as arrived. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – The Arizona D-Backs are now 1-15 in next contest after Dan Haren pitches, after losing again last night.

Took the world’s long tram to the top of Sandia Mountains, almost 11,000 feet up. It states you can see 11,000 square miles and I would believe it, very cool. Came back on Craps table and won a little money playing roulette.

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Arizona with a money line of +125 to +175, who are have .250 or less team batting average, against a decent NL starting pitcher with 3.70 to 4.20, who are hitting even worse, with .240 or less BA over their last 10 games. Since 1997, this system checks in at 45-10, 81.8 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Barry Zito and the San Francisco Giants are 0-10 against the money line against NL Central opponents over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Slick Rick’s has cooled since we last were here and is still 16-10 since last week. He likes the Phillies in underdog role tonight.

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On the road Monday action

What I learned yesterday – Thank God I had my trusty map book yesterday. On I-40 there was a truck or car fire in the middle of the road and reports were people were backed up 15-22 miles. Even though we had to go about 70 minutes out of our way (one way), we got to our destination. Hit the Craps tables last night, had nothing going. It was interesting to observe others play and win with a much different strategy than I’ve seen, will have to look into.

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON All teams with a money line of -100 to -150, revenging two straight losses vs opponent, like Minnesota as a home favorite, starting a pitcher who walked one or fewer hitters each of his last two outings. This is non-qualifying system at 35-10, 77.8 percent; however it is pretty darn good.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Baltimore Orioles are 0-14 against the money line revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of eight runs or more over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Without any research, from a personal perspective, the Mets seem like a reasonable underdog with Nieve pitching and the Tigers as a favorite.