Will Notre Dame Irish Eyes be Smiling this Autumn?

Being a Notre Dame football fan or supporter just isn’t as much fun as it used to be. Coming off regular seasons of 3-9 and 6-6 respectively, its put up or shut up time for the sometimes Fighting Irish. Will this finally be the year Charley Weis and quarterback Jimmy Clausen make Notre Dame football relevant again?

Weis might be on par with “the most interesting man in the world” who occasionally drinks Dos Equis beer, just in the gridiron sense. Weis came to South Bend as this larger than life character and sold everyone with his bravado and New Jersey tough-guy attitude. He was reported offensive genius behind the New England Patriots (until the next one came along) and was never shy about taking credit for Tom Brady’s growth and success.

Weis was 9-2 and 10-2 in his first two seasons, utilizing former coaches Bob Davie’s and Ty Willingham’s recruits as upperclassmen. In retrospect, Willingham’s firing makes more sense today, as the Irish have lacked talent from its junior and senior classes the previous two years.

Weis made a fundamental mistake to start, he should have preached patience like current president Barack Obama did on the campaign trail. That’s easier said then done with the Subway Alumni and big financial backers; however it would have gone a lot further than making promises he hasn’t kept.

Jimmy Clausen was to be the great savior, partnered with the perfect coach under the Golden Dome. This is a critical year for the junior Clausen also. His freshman season he was overwhelmed and played behind an offensive line that couldn’t keep an army of ants out of the backfield, let a lone a 300-pound defensive lineman. Clausen was much improved last season, but had several forgettable outings, like those against Boston College (0-17) and USC (3-38). Though Clausen had a spectacular game in the Hawaii Bowl, legends are not made around South Bend playing football in Hawaii on Christmas Eve.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Notre Dame at Ov8.5 win total, which doesn’t sound like BSC material, unless they change the schedule back to nine games.

Offensively, Notre Dame has a chance to really be productive. Clausen can wing the pigskin and reports have greater dedication to making better throws, plus positive signs of improved accuracy, especially on out-routes and balls thrown in seven to 15-yard range outside the tackles. Golden Tate and Michael Floyd should be heard of a great deal as receivers and sophomore Kyle Randolph has the look of the next Notre Dame tight end who will end up playing Sunday’s once his college career is complete. This group of pass catchers is arguably the best in the country.

Notre Dame could pass the 8.5 win total, if the power running game returns. The Irish have averaged sickly 110 and 75 yards per game the last two seasons. To be taken seriously, the four returning offensive linemen must play like men, with the Irish averaging at least 150 yards per game, with a stable of above average running backs.

What will determine Weis’ fate probably is something he’s not a big part of, the Notre Dame defense. Six starters return with a load of uncertainty. Three returning lettermen are in secondary, meaning only three starters in the front seven. The Fighting Irish should be better in blitzing defense in year two of defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta’s style. Though far more athletes are on the two-deep roster, many are sophomores and juniors without a great deal of experience. In many top-flight programs, that would not be an issue, however Notre Dame hasn’t been in the class of elite football programs for some time.

Jeff Makinen of StatFox isn’t convinced the Irish are on the rise until they prove it. “Notre Dame has proven to be overrated year after year. Weis is 29-21 and 23-26-1 against the spread, not coach of the year material. Clausen has gotten a large amount of publicity, with what kind of results on the field? Ron Powlus (former Irish QB) was supposed to be great; I’m seeing similarities between the two quarterbacks. I’d bet Under until you see a reason to change.”

The schedule appears to be conducive to success, at least right today. Nevada, Washington, Boston College, Navy and Connecticut should all be winnable encounters at Notre Dame Stadium. Michigan will be improved, nevertheless is about where the Irish was last season after 3-9 campaign and Purdue brings in a new coach, giving Weis two shots at road wins. Washington State is rebuilding off 2-11 season and will meet the Irish in San Antonio, as showcase for potential Texas recruits to come to northern Indiana to play football and earn an exceptional education.

If Notre Dame is truly a better team, they win those eight games, period.

Concerns start with Michigan State, who continues to get better under coach Mark Dantonio and they have won and covered six straight in South Bend. Do the Irish finally put up a fight?

November road games at Pittsburgh and Stanford could be BCS berth games. The Panthers defeated Clausen and company 36-33 in overtime last season and they will give Notre Dame full attention with a bye week to follow. Coach Weis’ crew could catch a break in season closer against Stanford, who will have played Oregon, USC and bitter rival Cal in the previous three weeks.

For many followers and detractors of the Blue and Gold, the benchmark matchup is USC. The last three games have been losses by total score of 120-27 and it could have been worse. The Trojans are on 7-0 and 6-1 ATS roll against Notre Dame, but look to be the most vulnerable in years with three starters back on defense and new assistant coaches taking over. This doesn’t mean USC is reverting back to pre-Pete Carroll days, just the slightest opportunity for Weis to regain much of his lost stature.

The season will be a success if the Irish earn BCS berth. One rung down on the acceptability scale would be 9-3, with USC upset. Anything less could mean sorry Charlie.

Best educated guess is the Irish get to nine wins and cover the Over.

Reds with backs to wall, up against Rugged System

The Cincinnati Reds are fading faster than a budget surplus at any city across the United States. The Reds have lost 17 of last 27 games to tumble into fifth place in the National League Central. In fact, with there 44-49 record (-2.3 units), Pittsburgh can actually see an opportunity of climbing out of the cellar. Just how valueless has Cincinnati become, only San Diego and Washington have a worse runs scored-runs allowed deficit (-61) in the senior circuit.

The Reds problems are scattered like tornado going thru a neighborhood. Offensively, Cincinnati has a “full house” of defective numbers. The Reds rank 14th in the National League in runs scored, batting average and on-base percentage. Those numbers are coupled with ranking 13th in total bases and slugging percentage. No wonder Cincy has lost six of last eight against teams with winning record.

The pitching numbers though better, are not exactly inspiring. Cincinnati ranks 9th in ERA at 4.27. They concede too many walks, ranked 11th and don’t earn many easy outs, positioned 12th in strikeouts. The Reds are tied for 12th in quality starts with 45 on the season. Fortunately they have been able to win when leading late with 82.1 percent save percentage.

Bronson Arroyo (10-8, 5.07, 1.454) is having another Six Flags seasons, going up and down. At the present time he’s in the zone, not allowing a run in last two starts over 16 innings and has posted 2.14 ERA in his last three trips to the mound. “I’m a roller coaster out there,” Arroyo told the Reds’ official Web site. “Right now, I’m going good. I’ll take every zero on the board I can get. The more you go out there like that, you feel confident. … You just try to ride the wave.” (Dude, were with you man)

Cincinnati is trying to not to be swept by the Dodgers (60-34, +19.6), who are 32-15 at home and 42-23 against right-hand starters.

Chad Billingsley (9-5, 3.76, 1.283) has been the Los Angeles ace, but not of late. Billingsley has been hit hard in his last two starts, allowing 11 runs in 6 2/3 innings. He’ll hope to find an early rhythm and save a bullpen that has done phenomenal work with 3.21 ERA and 1.238 WHIP.
This all leads to Bookmaker.com making L.A. a -200 money line favorite with a total Ov8 and the Reds being in unfit area.

Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more, who are NL team with a low on-base percentage of .350 or less, against a team with a solid bullpen (WHIP of 1.350 or less ), with a scalding starting pitcher sporting ERA less than 2.50 over his last three starts.

Over the last five seasons, this system is sizzling 54-11, 83.1 percent. The Reds are 8-21 as +150 to +200 underdogs and unimaginable 50-100 after a game where they stranded three or less runners on base. The Dodgers have won 52 of last 75 games at Dodger Stadium and are 8-1 in Billingsley’s last nine starts against teams with losing record.

If the money line makes one feel a bit uncomfortable backing the Dodgers, the average score differential of this superb system is 2.1 runs, adding the run line as potential wager. One more aspect to consider, the Reds have lost eight in a row at the home of the Dodgers.

Could Delaware Sports Betting Be A “First State” Failure?

Delaware has legalized sports betting. Governor Jack Martell signed legislation permitting it and The First State’s Supreme Court has determined that betting on individual games, as well as parlays, will be legal. Operations are scheduled to be in place by the start of the football season. With table games on the way this winter, Governor Martell estimates that $50 million in fresh revenues will hit the state’s coffers in 2010.

The wagering will take place through Delaware’s race tracks, which have become “racinos” in recent years with the addition of slot machines. The betting will take place on the premesis (no apparent provision for phone/online) and the racetrack will act as the bookmaker.

Obviously, the Delaware racinos welcome this opportunity to attract new bettors. In a press release, Delaware Park COO Bill Fasy said “We believe that the single game sports lottery, with a proper betting line, will provide an exciting entertainment option for our guests…”

(Presumably, the use of “a proper betting line” was a great relief to sports bettors who feared that an improper betting line would somehow find it’s way into use at Delaware Park.)

Is Delaware Ready? Do the racinos and politicians of Delaware know what they’re doing? They better. But both the regulators and those who will be taking the action are a long way from having things ready to go, and even knowing how things will work. Nobody in Delaware is prepared to answer questions on what kind of bet offerings will be available and what the limits will be. It is also unclear whether the state will collect tax money based on volume of wagering or profitability.

And chances are the folks in Delaware are overestimating the profitability of their sports betting operation. One unpleasant aspect for the house is the opportunity to lose. Bookmaking is a skill, and risk management is imperative to a proper sports betting operation. And bettors in target markets may already have more convenient options.

Let’s take a look at some things that could lead to Delaware sports betting being a disappointment.

Unattractive Propositions: Does a “single game sports lottery” include not only sides but totals, money lines, teasers, buying points, etc.? While there will be more money bet on sides than anything else, people are used to betting on the other offerings. Delaware better have a well-rounded product offering, because they have more competition, and potential competition, than they realize.

Potential Legal Competition: New Jersey governor John Corzine is suing the federal government to repeal a law that makes sports betting illegal for all but four grandfathered states (Nevada, Delaware, Oregon, and Montana) that have had sports betting in the past. Of those states only Nevada has had full scale betting. The others simply had parlay card offerings.

Opinions are mixed as to how serious New Jersey is about this, but they certainly want to protect Atlantic City wagering interests. And Pennsylvania is keeping an eye on things as well. Rather than a long-term exclusive, Delaware could have merely a head start on sports betting.

Quasi-Legal Competition: Bill Frist’s celebrated “slide it into national security bill” legislation that supposedly made offshore wagering illegal (it actually addressed banking, not the actual gambling) has had little effect on those who actually want to bet. Plenty of people are still betting at offshore sports books and poker rooms as some foreign entities and even banks have picked up the slack for American banks who can no longer transfer funds into the online operations.

Illegal Competition With A Technological Edge: Legislation targeting funding of offshore wagering has been a boon for illegal bookies, with many who left the business now back in the game. A majority of those bookies now offer online wagering for their customers via service bureaus located outside the US. Bets are made online or via phone, then the weekly settling up occurs, as it traditionally has, at the local tavern. Delaware’s sports betting relies substantially on Philadelphia and South Jersey players. Will players enjoying the convenience of playing online on credit feel compelled to make the trip to the actual sports books to put their cash on the counter?

Poor Management Leading to Losses: Both government and racino types are used to their betting having a guaranteed 17%-25% (depending on the wager) skimmed right off the top of each mutuel pool in horse racing, as well as a guaranteed cut for the house programmed into each slot machine. There is no such mathematical certainty built into sports betting.

While making bettors lay $11 for every $10 they are trying to win gives the house a good head start, winning as a bookmaker is no sure thing. Online and Nevada bookmakers have found that out the hard way. Consistent winners betting big money have shut down the occassional poorly managed offshore sports book and have led to tremendous consolidation among Nevada sports books. Knowing that sports books require active and intelligent management to win, casino companies take all their properties in Nevada and turn them into affiliates of a central book, cutting the overall costs of operation and putting their (theoretically) best talent in charge of the overall bookmaking. But even those steps have not led to a surge of profitability for Nevada bookmakers.

Smart bettors can overcome the 52.38% poinstpread winners needed to win money from the bookmaker. And there are smart bettors who make money on a regular basis by doing so. That’s part of the dance required to set the proper wagering limits. It’s tough to manage the risk of the smart bettors while welcoming the unsophisticated action of the weekend plunger.

The fact that Delaware sports books could have periods of time where they don’t only not win, but lose, is a part of sports betting history in the state. As Mike Wilkening of Pro Football Weekly dug up, the original parlay offerings in the state of Delaware were shut down suddenly in late 1976 after bettors took advantage of arbitrage opportunities created when the Delaware lines and those in Vegas differered significantly. It is likely that lines weren’t adjusted to account for what was late season injury/weather information. This is the kind of mistake that is unlikely to be made in the information age, but there are a lot of new ways for sharp bettors to beat up on sports book mistakes.

Will Puny Profits Lead to Patience or Panic? Bettors in Nevada actually beat the casinos with their basketball wagers in the month of April. This shows that while earnings are highly likely, there will be fallow periods for the sports books. Winning streaks against the spread by local favorites like the Eagles, Giants, and Penn State could lead to losses for periods of time. Are the racinos ready for that? And if the contribution to the state is tied to profitability, how will state officials react to less revenue than is projected?

Some Nevada casino operators consider sports betting a convenience to their guests, knowing that the sports book is likely to earn less per square foot than any other part of the gambling floor. On the other extreme is Bally’s in Las Vegas, whose palatial sports book sits empty, closed down for not earning enought money. Which view will prevail in Delaware, and will that view be the same for both the racinos and the state?

Success Is No Lock: The legalization of sports betting in Delaware is far from a slam dunk for the state. It will take solid bookmakers backed by patient management and understanding state government regulators to make it work. Count me among the sports bettors looking to put them to the test this fall.

This article was written of Kevin O'Neill of Strategic Sports Publishing and RealWorldSports.com. An expert handicapper and researcher, Kevin is the recipient of numerous handicapping honors, awards, and top 10 documented rankings.

Kevin’s third book, Real World Sports Betting: How Real People Make Real Money in the Global Sports Marketplace, is available at a discount from his office. Additional titles include Football Betting: Strategies for the Smart Player and Football Betting’s Cutting Edge: New Strategies for a New Era.

Look for more from Kevin later in August.

In search of Tantalizing Tuesday

Yesterday’s rainout took two plays off the board and we settled for 1-1. We kickoff Tuesday with an 84.6 percent baseball system and follow that up with hopefully another Free winner from my pal Sal. The Top Trend is an oddity, but has proven correct with 11-0 record. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – How's this for a pitcher getting taken off the hook: A's starter Gio Gonzalez gave up 11 runs in two and two-thirds innings Monday night but he did not get a loss as Oakland rallied from a ten-run deficit to beat the Twins, 14-13. Gonzalez is only the second starting pitcher in baseball's modern era (i.e., since 1900) to avoid a loss in a game in which he pitched fewer than three innings and gave up at least 11 runs. You don't have to search back very far to find the other instance: the Rangers' Scott Feldman was charged with 12 runs in two and two-thirds innings in Boston on August 12 last year but he was not involved in the decision as Texas lost to the Red Sox, 19-17. (Thanks Elias)

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON all favorites like Boston with a money line of -150 or more, who are hitting below .265 as a team, against a decent AL starting pitcher with 4.20 ERA or less, in the second half of the season. To be listed this big a favorite based on batting average suggests this team should win and 22-4 record the last three years backs it up.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Baltimore Orioles are 0-11against the money line in road games vs. poor defensive catchers - allowing 0.85 or more stolen bases a game this season. (Thanks, StatFox)

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal’s 2-0 record yesterday takes him to 13-2 and his Best Bet is Philadelphia to flourish against the Cubs.

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Do these Big Underdogs have a shot?

The Tuesday offerings on the Major League schedule have four games with four significant underdogs. The reasons are varied as to why, but what sports bettors want to know is if these pooches have to chance to pull the upset, leading to a significant payday. Here is a breakdown of each large underdog’s chances.

Baltimore at New York

The Orioles are trying to rebuild again, this time going thru the draft and using their young players. Unfortunately, this to will take time and in the mean while, Baltimore (41-51, -7 units) fans are once asked to be patient. The Orioles lost a close 2-1 game last night against the Yankees, however doing pretty well only counts if you are an AIG employee, which entitles you to bonus no matter what. Baltimore is 2-23 on the road versus AL East opponents and after surrendering only four runs in last two games, the O’s are 4-17 after allowing three runs or less in consecutive contests over the last two seasons. Bookmaker.com has Baltimore as +165 money line road underdogs with Rich Hill (3-2, 7.22 ERA) facing the Yankees. How little do the oddmakers think of Baltimore, New York is starting Sergio Mitre, who last started a big league game in Sept. 2007. The Orioles chances are not so hot with 11-39 record as dogs of +150 or higher.

Boston at Texas

The Red Sox (55-37, +6.9) have lost three in a row to fall into a first place tie with the Yankees and baseball bettors like their chances of ending streak even more than oddsmakers. Texas (50-41, +10.4), who defeated Boston 6-3 last evening, opened as +135 home underdogs were swiftly taken to +155, presumably with believers seeing a real pitching mismatch. Josh Beckett (11-3, 3.35) is BoSox hurler and he’s 9-1 with 2.14 ERA in last 13 outings. Beckett and the Red Sox are 21-4 as a road favorite of -125 or more since last season and they will face Rangers rookie Tommy Hunter (1-1, 2.35). The 23-year Hunter looks more like a standup outside linebacker than a pitcher, throws a low 90’s sinker, though like most young pitchers has control issues. Give Texas a punchers chance since they are 11-4 as home dogs and Boston has scored three runs against the last five rookie starting pitchers they have seen this season.

San Francisco at Atlanta

San Francisco (50-42, +9.1) has not been an offensive juggernaut to begin with; ranking 27th in runs scored at 4.1. Lately, the Giants have not done much to improve that position, scoring 14 total runs in last six contests, causing them to lose four times. Chances are it won’t get a whole easier, since they are +185 underdogs facing Atlanta’s Derek Lowe (8-7, 4.40). San Francisco faced Lowe plenty of times when he was with the Dodgers and they haven’t scored on him in last two starts covering 10 innings. The Giants will send rookie Ryan Sadowski (2-1, 1.00) up the hill and he’s shown good poise according to manager Bruce Boche. Trouble is San Fran is 8-19 as road underdog of +150 to +200. Atlanta (47-46, -6.3) has been hitting the ball, but is 8-19 after scoring seven runs or more two straight games. If the Giants can score early to build confidence and Sadowski finds early rhythm, San Francisco’s is bullpen capable of containing the Braves for upset.

Cincinnati at L.A. Dodgers

The Reds (44-48, -1.3) have lost nine of 13 to fall into fifth place in the NL Central. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has sprung a leak except for Bronson Arroyo, conceding 78 runs in last nine losses. They don’t figure to improve with Homer Bailey (1-1, 6.43) pitching against the Dodgers (59-34, +18.6). Bailey is a former first round draft choice of the Reds. The Reds are losing patience with the 23-year, who is known as much for his silly stubbornness as his ability. Bailey and the Reds are 1-12 in games he has started the last two years. Cincy is a +175 road dog and would appear in a horrible situation with the Dodgers 31-12 as +110 or higher home favorites.

Wagering on Quality Pitchers after poor outing

We have all been there as sports bettors, an attractive wager has been made on the team ace and he’s shelled and gone by the fourth inning, causing wagering accounts to decline. You understand as baseball bettor, the good pitchers are going to get beat, but when they are battered like the heavy bag at the gym, that is more gut-wrenching. After taking such a loss, is it a good or bad idea to follow up with that same pitcher in his next start?

The first order of business was to determine what makes a quality pitcher in 2009 and decided a minimum of 10 starts had to be made, with a personal winning percentage of 60 percent or higher. This pitcher had to be active or not injured, since it would do us no good to follow somebody who wasn’t pitching to begin with.

A bad outing was determined to be five or more earned runs in a single start. There were a couple of instances where particular hurlers fit the criteria in surrendering five or more runs with one or zero being earned. The argument becomes where to draw the line, thus settled on five earned and disregarded everything else.

Of course many of the names are quite familiar, like a who’s-who in baseball with Tim Lincecum, Josh Beckett, Roy Halladay, Johan Santana and Felix Hernandez to name a few all making the list. As always, confounding pitchers have big years out of nowhere. A Matt Palmer from the Angels, Tim Wakefield, Matt Cain, Scott Feldman and Kevin Slowey all pop up unexpectedly. Even discarded Jason Marquis, who is baseball’s first 12-game winner, finds a home in Colorado of all places.

In trying to learn how top notch hurlers would pitch after being cuffed around, the categories were broken down into favorites, underdogs and pick, with the end result of the game, not the pitchers record what we were seeking.

When a pitcher is tattooed (possibly poor word choice in today’s world) and favored in next game, his record is well above average, but not a great help to the sports bettors. The pitcher’s team is 33-21, 61.1 percent, not bad, however not the best bet one could find at +3.9 units of profit.

How would a capable thrower of the horsehide do when the game could go either way with a money line of -105? It turned out to be about as expected with 6-5 record and squeaking out a slight profit.

Where the real money can be found, is when this pummeled pitcher takes the mound as an underdog in next start. Most baseball players could tell you the spread of a football game or even basketball contest before they would know the money line on a game they were playing. In many cases, the pitcher is likely to know he has to bare-down more off a substandard outing and would have a sense what his team needs based on opposing team and opposition pitcher.

In this spot the underdog chucker is 19-9, 67.8 percent and baseball bettors pick up a sweet +16.35 units.

When you add all the numbers together, the total arrives at 58-35, +21 units. The 62.3 percent winning percentage is nothing special, which is not that far above the minimum requirement.

Nevertheless, place our roughed up delivery man in the miscast role of underdog and watch him deliver a profit worth crowing about.

Kick Start your Monday

Hit two of three on Sunday, taking our record to 152-98-3, 60.8 percent, since the first part of April. The Top Trend is again a reverse perfect play, taking place in the Midwest. Sal is hotter than Phoenix, AZ steering wheel that sits outside during the day uncovered and has Free Play. The Best System is found in run line action, with two plays that are 86 percent winners. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday: Joel Pineiro helped his own cause with a two-run double in the Cardinals 2-1 win over the Diamondbacks. Pineiro was the second pitcher in the last three seasons to win a game in which he drove in all of his team's runs, joining Milwaukee's Yovani Gallardo, who homered in a 1-0 victory over the Pirates earlier this season (April 29). Pineiro was the first St. Louis pitcher to turn the trick since Ray Sadecki in a 3-1 win over the Phillies in the first game of a twinbill on August 6, 1961. (Thanks Elias)

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all teams against a run line of (+1.5, -155) to (-1.5, +135), after shutting out a division rival, starting an over-rested pitcher who is working on seven or more days rest. I’ll be honest, I’m not a huge run line fan, however this system is 37-6, 86 percent, including 3-0 this season. This would mean to play against Philadelphia and the L.A. Angels on the run line.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Kansas City Royals are 0-12 after two straight games with one or less extra base hits over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal was 4-1 yesterday taking him to 11-2 run-out and he is backing Colorado to crush Arizona near the Rocky Mountains.

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Cubs and Phillies converge as hot teams

For many people, a trip to Washington, D.C. is a wonderful and historic adventure. The city has many great things to see and do and a short drive in several directions can further enhance the experience. For the Chicago Cubs, the four day excursion to out nation’s capitol turned out to be just the right kind of stimulus package needed to start the second half of the year.

The Cubs (47-43, -4.9 units) marched into woeful Washington and swept the Nationals in four games and have taken over second place in the NL Central, trailing St. Louis by two games, though are tied with them in the loss column. If Washington was the right team for manager Lou Pinella’s squad to play at the moment, Monday’s opponent, Philadelphia is just the exact opposite.

The Phillies (51-38, +6.5 units) are fresh off a weekend in Miami and swept their then nearest competitor in the NL East, Florida, building a 6.5 game lead in the division. The defending World Series champions are on eight-game winning streak and have been the conqueror in 12 of last 13 contests. The Phils have won every way imaginable; from a 2-0 shutout to a 22-1 blowout and Sunday’s victory improves them to incomparable 29-15 (+16.8 units) record on the road.

Philadelphia returns home to Citizens Bank Park, where they have turned around, after a half a season of dismal play. The Phils have won nine of last 10 at home to raise record to 22-23 (-10.3 units) and they are 21-8 vs. teams like Chicago whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game this year.

Rodrigo Lopez (1-0, 3.18 ERA) is the No.5 starter at present; however this job is in serious jeopardy with the signing of Pedro Martinez. Lopez will have likely a total of three starts before Martinez comes off the DL, meaning he will have to have a few inspired efforts. Lopez is pitching on 11 days rest and in his career, is 10-1 in home games when working on seven or more days rest. (Team's Record)

The Cubs will counter with their only All-Star, Ted Lilly (9-6, 3.18), who is pitching with two additional off days, since developing inflammation in his left knee. The Cubs lefthander has been extra sharp in last three outings with 2.11 ERA, striking out 20 and walking only three in 21 1/3 innings. Here is a little known fact on Lilly. In the last three years, including this season, only Roy Halladay (47) and Josh Beckett (44) have more wins than Lilly’s total of 41.

DiamondSportsbook.com has established Philadelphia as a -115 money line favorite, with a total of Un9.5. The Phillies are 51-23 off a win and 22-8 UNDER with an on-base percentage of .350 or better over their last 20 games. The Cubs have played like they are in hibernation as underdogs with 2-15 mark in 2009. Chicago is 30-12 UNDER vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season.

This is the ESPN Monday night telecast which will start at 7:05 Eastern, with Philly having taken four of the last six on home turf over the Cubs.

Enough Already!

I’ve had enough; I’m like Peter Finch in the classic 1976 movie “Network”. In that brilliant movie, Finch played the character Howard Beale and used an on-air rant that ended up coining the phrase “I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take it anymore.”

Some if not many of you either watched or saw the highlights of the British Open. 59-year old Tom Watson missed a putt on the 72nd hole that would have given him a sixth British Open title and a special place in history. The only other really comparable story I could think of was the Miracle on Ice, however that is a team sport. Watson’s triumph would have been onto itself.
Of course he missed the putt, badly, and never regained rhythm in playoff, as Stewart Cink won his first major going away.

What really angers me (I know it’s my blog, but won’t use preferred words because somebody more important than me might be paying attention) is the rest of the day, people all over the media used the word “choke” to describe Watson’s effort.

I know I ranted on this somewhere earlier this year, but I hate that word in relation to sports. It is thrown out as loosely as “superstar”. Watson for 71 holes was the best golfer at Turnberry, age aside. He admitted he hit the shot he wanted that went over the green, which left him in tenuous situation to save par and win The Open.

Somewhere in his subconscious, Watson realized his age, the moment at which he stood and hit a bad putt. If you’ve played golf, you know the feeling of walking after the ball the moment after you struck it. But CHOKE?

Players of all ages have stood over putts like that for decades, sometimes they go in, and sometimes they don’t. All of the people who criticized Watson for missing that putt should being ashamed at their lack of intelligence. Watson had the courage at his age to show up and believe he could still compete. As Paul Azinger of ABC said, “If we (speaking about himself and other professional golfers past their prime for the regular tour) had the same love of the game as Tom Watson, we would still be out there playing.”

I wonder how many of these people, who maybe interviewed various sports figures have asked silly questions or forgotten their questions and stumbled thru an interview. I wonder if they called themselves out for “choking”. Or possibly in an office setting among their peers for the radio or television station they work for, had their direct boss or general manager of the station say, “Yesterday was a great day, except for (fill in the blank) choking on the interview he did.”

To this day I distinctly remember being 21-years old playing on a highly competitive slow-pitch softball team. We were in a big tournament and we played outstanding and made it to the championship game in a double-elimination tourney. I normally batted either second or fifth, but because I was having a great tournament, I was moved to third slot in the batting order. As it turns out, our opponent played perfectly and me, I was 1 for 9 in the two games in which we lost.

In retrospect, driving home, I realized I was too pumped up; I swung too hard and too soon. Did I choke, I never thought so. In fact to this day, I remember playing in that tournament, which was the closest I ever came to winning the whole thing, playing that sport. I remember the excitement beforehand and during the game. It was the chase, not the outcome that left its strongest impression on me. If someone would have said I choked, I would have punched them in the nose.

I must say, I’m not a Watson fan, he’s been too outspoken about topics that he should keep to himself the last decade. However, at the moment who didn’t want Watson to make that putt outside of Cink, who I can assure you would have been proud to finish second to one of the greatest players in the game.

To all those that called out Watson, I can only hope you to are called out someday for your failings as a human being.

Seeking a Sensational Sunday

Ended up with .500 Saturday as my streak was shattered and a smokin’ Sal takes my place with Free Play. With yesterday’s Top Trend a Winner, uncovered another perfect one that is 10-0. The Best System returns at 33-8 in evening action. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday: Mark Buehrle got his 10th win of the season when he beat the Orioles on Saturday. It's Buehrle's ninth consecutive season with 10-or-more wins, tying the White Sox record set by Doc White from 1903 through 1911. Buehrle did not walk a batter in his win over the Orioles. It was Buehrle's seventh walkless start this year, tying him with Zack Greinke and Kevin Slowey for the American League high in that category. (Thanks Elias)

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher, with a good bullpen that converts on 75 percent or more of their save opportunities, against opponent with an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season. In this spot, play against Texas for a system that is 33-8, 80.5 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Chicago Cubs are 10-0 in road games vs. a terrible bullpen whose ERA is 5.50 or worse over the last three seasons, winning by an average of 2.5 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) My luck ran out, but Sal’s hasn’t. He 7-1 since baseball returned and likes the Phils to drown the Fish.

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Super Saturday at 3DW

Another winning day has us on 13-4 run here at 3Daily Winners. I personally have been hot, hitting seven straight here and at season-high for units won on the season on my own personal plays. You can get all my plays for Free by signing up on mailing list. Today’s top trend is perfect and goes up against hot Houston pitching staff. No outstanding systems for Saturday, however did find one that is 7-1 in 2009. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday: Can things get any worse for the New York Mets? Manager Jerry Manuel's team managed only two hits in its 11-0 loss in Atlanta on Friday night. It's only the third time in Mets history that they were shut out by more than 10 runs, while producing two-or-fewer hits. The other instances were both against the Pirates at Shea Stadium - in 1966 and 1984. Thanks Elias

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY OVER on all teams against the total who are a weak AL offensive team like Kansas City, averaging 4.2 runs or less a game, against a team with a solid bullpen (ERA of 3.75 or less), with a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start. This non-qualifying system is 51-18, 73.9 percent since 2005, but 7-1 this season.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Dodgers of Mannywood are 9-0 after two or more consecutive losses this season winning by an average of 4.6 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) This is getting scary good (love the looks of wagering accounts) and I have Texas to maul Minnesota.

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NFL quarterback controversy’s

Competition is healthy right? When someone has to compete, they tend to extend more effort and become better at what they do. But what happens when say two mediocre people go head to head? Does it really benefit a company or organization having to pick the best of an average pairing? And what about the sports bettor, he’s left to analyze the merits of mediocrity.

In the NFL, this happens a lot. The most telling position is under center with the quarterback. In studying the list of 32 NFL teams, it is good business to find the quarterback situations that are up for grabs and give strong consideration to playing Under on futures wagers for team totals.

Why you ask, it allows the old professional football proverb – If you have more than one quarterback, you have none.

The Oakland Raiders drafted JaMarcus Russell No.1 two years ago and to call his progress S L O W would be doing injustice to the word itself. Talent-wise the former LSU quarterback can make all the throws, however work habits, dedication, decision-making and staying in shape were all questions marks when he was drafted and remain today. The Oakland camp is so unsure if he is the right person for the job, they’ve brought in 39-year old Jeff Garcia.

Reports have the Raiders organization thinking Russell can learn from Garcia’s work ethic and understand what it takes to play in this league. One problem, Garcia is a curmudgeon, he has no interest in developing Russell, he wants to be the starting quarterback. If Garcia believes he has earned the job in camp (which he always does) and if coach Tom Cable (with Al Davis calling every 10 seconds) decides Russell is his guy to start the season, Garcia’s past suggests a malcontent who isn’t afraid to speak his mind. This sets up combustible situation for a franchise who makes the Kardashian’s seem normal. Sportsbook.com has Da Raaaiders at 5.5 for season wins, but if Russell fails or Garcia starts seeing the ghosts of linemen chasing him like last season, they will fall short of that total in 2009.

New Tampa Bay head coach Raheem Morris was a big fan Josh Freeman at Kansas State and picked him in first round as long term quarterback solution. While most experts considered Freeman a project, he quickly moved up in the eyes of those in the Buccaneers organization with sharp workouts in mini-camps and OTA’s. Freeman was helped significantly competing with Luke McCown and Byron Leftwich.

Morris can’t be milquetoast in making a decision. His options are more limited than he believes and nobody thinks Freeman is as prepared as Matt Ryan for quarterback duty to start the season. The smart thing to do is start McCown and let Freeman learn and make change at midseason if necessary, with veteran Leftwich in the bullpen. Oddsmakers have pegged the Bucs for 6.5 wins after two nine win campaigns, which makes good sense.

Sweeping changes were made in Cleveland, nevertheless, sports talk radio and Browns blogs are still in debate who should be starting quarterback, Derrick Anderson or Brady Quinn. New head man Eric Mangini’s first true decision as coach will be picking one of the two. No matter who he chooses, a large bucketful of support will be for the player that lost, especially if the winner fails to live up to expectations.

The real issue here is ability. Quinn is local guy, but does not possess strong arm and accuracy isn’t his strong point. He can pick up first downs with his legs and likes to throw to tight end in tough spots. His true value is incomplete due to lack of playing and injury. Anderson is neither as good as he played in 2007 nor as awful as he looked last season. He’s like a hot fudge sundae, hot and cold, and definitely turnover-prone. Mangini needs to take a stand with one and live with it, especially in first season as coach and worry about the future later. Bettors have to do the same with Browns listed at 6.5 wins for 2009.

Of course the craziest quarterback controversy isn’t even one and might not ever be one, yet has the juiciest story. Brett Favre will be a Minnesota Viking if his arm is sound and Sage Rosenfels will wonder how he was blindsided. Even more so than Garcia, Favre isn’t putting on a purple and white uniform to wear a headset. He signs; he expects to start, even if he plays the “I just want a chance to compete” card. Except for 2007, Favre has seen a noticeable deterioration in his skill to throw the medium-deep pass (unless it’s a slant) or long pass over the last four years.

Rosenfels sagged as starter for Houston last season, being too much a risk-taker when not needed. Tarvais Jackson has had his chances and fumbled his opportunities to take the Vikings-mantle by the horns and will have to move on to have real shot at starting again. Though Minnesota fans are mildly excited about Favre coming after seeing him beat their team all these years, be careful for what you wish with a quarterback who turns 40 in October. Minnesota total of nine wins could go south if No. 4 fails to impress.

Several other teams don’t have specific issues at the field general position; however they do not have answers necessarily.

Is Trent Edwards really what Buffalo needs at quarterback? He played the role of Indian-giver in 2008. He made the coaches very comfortable in the first half of the season making him the starter and gave it all back with a repulsive second half. Terrell Owens can help, if Edwards can hit the target. Are the Bills capable of beating 7.5 wins set by oddsmakers, after a trio of seven win seasons?

Also in the AFC East, the Jets have to decide on Kellen Clemens, who has never really impressed or draft pick Mark Sanchez to beat a spot of seven wins.

Tennessee has total of nine W’s set on them. Can Kerry Collins continue to be a winner and if not, is Vince Young ready to resume career and become whom the Titans originally believed they had.

Matt Hasselbeck is the starter in Seattle and he’s become increasingly more injury-prone with advancing age. Will new coach Jim Mora have quick hook if Hasselbeck flounders and go with more athletic Seneca Wallace as Seahawks look to reclaim NFC West?

Shaun Hill has 7-3 record as San Francisco starter the last two years, which he earned in part because he had a better feel for Mike Martz offense. That offense has been scrapped with his departure. Hill is tough, with strong pocket presence and a good decision-maker. Word out of the Bay Area is he has teammates respect, but the 2005 top selection Alex Smith is hell-bent on proving he’s not a bust. Smith took a huge pay cut to stay with Niners (obviously nobody called) and believes his mended wing and more traditional offense is better suited to have him be leader of 49ers and pass seven win total placed on them.

With this much acrimony floating around this many different NFL teams, it is hard to make a case any of the teams are worthy of an Over play before the season starts.

Trying to Bury the Book on a Friday

The winning just keeps on coming with another 2-1 day, making us 11-3 in this most recent positive streak. I’ve hit a very good personal patch and offer my Free Play seeking seven straight winner. Found a rare perfect Totals Trend, where they played the All-Star game. Top System is out West, following the best team in baseball and is 38-6. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday: Jamie Moyer is 8-0 with a 1.37 earned run average in eight career starts in what is now known as Land Shark Stadium. Moyer is the fifth pitcher since earned runs became an official statistic (1912 in the N.L., 1913 in the A.L.) to win each of his first eight starts with an earned-run average that low in a particular stadium. The four others are: Lefty Tyler at Weeghman Park (8-0, 1.18 ERA in his first eight starts), Lon Warneke at Shibe Park (8-0. 1.24), Jack Sanford at Connie Mack Stadium (8-0, 1.22) and Jim Bunning at Shea Stadium (8-0, 0.38). Thanks Elias

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Free Baseball System-1) Play Against all underdogs like Houston, with a money line of +150 or more, a NL team with a low on-base percentage of .350 or less, against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP of 1.350 or less), with a hot starting pitcher whose ERA less than 2.00 over his last three starts. This hotter than a day in Death Valley system is 38-6, 86.4 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Arizona D-backs are 13-0 UNDER in road games after seven or more consecutive home games over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Too borrow from Harry Carry, Holy Cow, six straight winners by yours truly and we’ll go to the South Side where Harry used to work and play the White Sox.

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MLB Series Wagering- Tampa Bay at Kansas City

The Tampa Bay Rays start the second half of the season believing they can play much better baseball then they did most of the first half of the year. The Rays (48-41, -0.7 units) trail the New York Yankees by four losses in the wild card chase and Boston by seven for the AL East division lead. In some ways, Tampa Bay feels fortunate they are still within reach of the postseason after floundering at or below .500 for the first two months of the season. "We didn't play nearly our best baseball," Rays manager Joe Maddon said. "We did at times, but a little bit too streaky."

One area that needs immediate shoring up is Tampa’s play on the road. They Rays are 18-26 (-7.8) and the skipper thinks his team is capable of turning this around. “We just have to get out there in the second half. We have to take advantage and not make the same kinds of mistakes that put us in a bind in the first half. We're capable of that. We're capable of playing a higher level of baseball on a more consistent basis." Maddon said.

Kansas City (37-51, -13.9 units) starts the second half having lost five of six and in search of winning formula from last September that fueled this season’s optimism. The Royals first order of business is finding ways to score more runs. Kansas City ranks 28th in runs scored at 3.9 per game and hopes Alex Gordon can provide offensive punch coming off of hip surgery.

After bouncing back and forth, Royals manager Trey Hillman has decided on Brian Bannister (6-7, 3.66) as his opening game starter. Bannister is off arguably the best game of his career, throwing seven shutout innings at Boston before tiring slightly in allowing one run on three hits in over 7 2/3 in 3-1 triumph. Coming into the series, Kansas City had won only three of last dozen contests at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals are 4-1 in Bannister’s home starts against winning teams, but 7-20 in night games over the last two seasons when he’s been called upon (Royals Record). The Royals are +130 money line home underdog at DiamondSportsbook.com, with total Un8.5. The Royals are 18-6 UNDER in the second half of the season.

Tampa Bay will counter with James Shields (6-6, 3.42), who is 2-4 on the road, with the Rays winners only twice in his eight starts as visitor. The Rays are off a pair of losses, but have enjoyed great success on Friday’s with 29-11 mark. Shields’ has liked the look of Royals uniform and is 5-0 with a 2.50 ERA in five career starts against Kansas City. He’s averaged nearly a strikeout per inning against K.C. (32) in the 36 innings he’s worked, while allowing just three free passes. The Rays are 14-3 UNDER July in road games since last year.

Game 1 Edge: Tampa Bay

Because of the shifting of Royals rotation, ace Zack Greinke (10-5, 2.12 ERA) only pitched one inning in the All-Star game, will start Game 2. Greinke hasn’t been quite as effective as he was early in the season, when he was un-hittable and has lost his last two starts, though the 3-1 loss the last time out was in part due to shabby K.C. defense. Historically, the Royals and Greinke don’t do as well if he pitches the middle game of series, showing a dismal 12-30 record.

Only staunch baseball bettors might know this, Tampa Bay’s offense ranks third in baseball at 5.3 runs per game. Besides pounding out 9.3 hits per game on average, the former Devil Rays have newfound patience as the dish, walking 4.1 times per game, which is third best in baseball, just behind the Yankees and Red Sox. The former masthead of the Rays staff, Scott Kazmir (4-5, 7.11) will take the ball for middle encounter. Since being injured, the lefthander has not been effective, but at least pain-free. Having last won on May 9, Kazmir hopes pitching in a Game 2 situation will turn luck around since he and his teammates are 22-5 in that spot.

Game 2 Edge: Kansas City

The series finale will be afternoon affair. The Rays are 16-13 playing in the light of day, with Kansas City unsightly 12-19. Matt Garza (6-7, 3.73) is one of the American League’s biggest enigmas. Only a handful of hurlers have his stuff, yet he finds a way to have one bad inning and has losing record. He’s 0-4 with 4.02 ERA against K.C. The Royals will send Luke Hochevar (5-3, 5.34) to toe the slap. Since returning in early June for stint in minors, Hochevar has pitched up to his capabilities, with 5-1 record and 3.97 ERA. Besides the quality record, he’s been innings-eater with six of last seven starts lasting as least six innings.

Game 3 Edge: Kansas City

Thought this was a good week to change it up and go with a few teams that don’t receive much of the acclaim. The matchup is very close, but Tampa Bay has poor road record and two of its starters in this series are fumbling along, not pitching well. Similar to a thin slice of pastrami, I’ll support the Royals by the slimmest of margins.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Tampa Bay -125, Kansas City -105

3DW Pick: Kansas City

Can the Chicago Cubs turn season around?

Many a heart has been broken by Chicago Cubs franchise over the years. The list of failures would make even the Big Three automakers blush. Everyone knows about last year’s playoff bust and a century of nonfulfillment and every Cub supporter has their version of the 1984 playoff series against San Diego or the unforgettable collapse of 1969.

Losing and the Chicago Cubs fit together like two people meeting on EHarmony.com. The Cubs haven’t been complete failures of late putting together back-to-back winning seasons twice since 2003, which were the first since 1971-72. Juxtaposed those figures against there biggest rival, the St. Louis Cardinals, who have suffered consecutive losing seasons twice in the last 49 years.
Since being one of the best teams in baseball from 1929 to 1945 (they lost in the World Series five times in the span), Chicago fans have suffered mightily, once going 16 years without a winning season (1947-1962) playing at a .425 clip.

Last year’s puzzling ending to the Los Angeles led to “wait till next year” for the North Siders and oddsmakers believed the Cubbies were indeed ready to make another run at winning a World Series for the 101st time since last being champions in 1908.

If 2009 was to be “the year”, thus far for the Cubs it’s been like those trying to stop Johnny Depp as John Dillinger in “Public Enemies”. The vaunted Chicago offense has looked like Rex Grossman leading the Bears the last few seasons, averaging 4.1 runs per game, 14th in the National League.

The list of underachievers is remarkable, Kosuke Fukudome batting .251, Milton Bradley .243, Alfonso Soriano .233 and Geovany Soto .230. The Cubs front office decided they would clear cash to sign Bradley and move Mark DeRosa, this season the combined average of the second basemen is .224 with on-base percentage of .280. True, having Bradley hurt was a setback as was Aramis Ramirez being out of the lineup for an extended period.

The fact is manager Lou Pinella’s use of the full roster can’t work if players don’t produce. The Cubs are next to last in doubles, 11th in walks and 13th in on-base percentage. If not for Derrick Lee’s hot spell the last month, no telling how much lower they would be.

The Cubs pitching is better, but not when it counts. They allow 4.1 runs per game, which is third in the National League. There starting pitching has been somewhat erratic beyond Ted Lilly (9-6, 3.18 ERA) and Carlos Zambrano (5-4, 3.53), as the Cubs are 22-12 when those two start. Rich Harden’s mechanical problems have him getting hit hard and Ryan Dempster is a lost cause on the road with Cubs sporting 1-9 record in his 10 starts.

The bullpen’s .500 record is in sync with the team record and the save percentage is lowly .625 for a team presumed to be running away with division. Kevin Gregg has stabilized as the closer after abject start, but Carlos Marmol is a half a pack of Marlboro’s with 43 walks in 43 innings of work.

Even being baseball’s biggest underachievers based on preseason prognostications, the Cubs are only one game behind division leading St. Louis in the loss column, though backers are paying for it at -8 units. For Chicago to live up to expectations, they are going to have to average about five runs the rest of the way and hope the pitching holds up.

Blogger hearsay has rumblings in the clubhouse with not everyone pulling on the same rope. Reports have stubborn players unwilling to change to help the team, pitchers becoming testy with the lack of offense and too many lapses of concentration on the field.

Can the Cubs take control of wide open division, undoubtedly if the talent plays to potential. However, after this many games, the Cubs seem wholly capable of finishing just ahead of Pittsburgh in the Central, which means, wait till next year.

Ready to Rock on a Thursday

To get everything back up to speed, we start the second half of baseball season on 8-2 run and since April 11, our official plays are 145-94-3, 60.6 percent or pretty damn good. Let’s hope we can keep the momentum going, leading up to the football season. Our top system involves the Rockies and is listed as regular article for today. The Top Trend involves one of the Los Angeles teams and is 85 percent correct the last two years. I’ve hit five straight at this location and will try and nail down another one. Good Luck.

Positive news: 3Daily Winners is #2 in MLB at Free Sports monitor and at The Sports Eye monitor.

What I thought about: Watching the opening ceremonies of the All-Star game, I couldn’t help think of how much class and dignity is involved and the sharp contrast to that of the NBA All-Star game. Baseball relishes its history, while the NBA is all about the present moment. Let me know if you agree or disagree.

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Free Baseball System-1) See article below about Colorado.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Randy Wolf and the Dodgers are 17-3 in night home games over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) I’ll try and hog more attention with a sixth straight winner here by playing the Rockies.

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Baseball Betting in the Second Half

With the All-Star game behind us and three well-deserved days away from wagering on Major League Baseball, it’s time to get back in the saddle and continue the delightful daily grind. If you have had the good fortune of making a solid profit like this reporter betting baseball, it is time to consider a few adjustments for the remainder of the regular season. What could change in three days with no games played, a lot!

Playing Favorites is more costly

Remember when the New England Patriots were in the midst of unbeaten regular season and were 9-0 and 8-1 ATS? The very next week oddsmakers had enough of squares and sharps kicking their behinds and made the Pats 16-point road favorites at Buffalo. Their thinking was you want to play them, go ahead, beat this number and it continued the rest of the season. Though, not to that extreme because of pitching matchups, the same thing occurs in baseball the rest of the season. Boston, the Yankees and the Dodgers will see ever increasing prices if they continue to win, making them poor risk-reward choices. The same will be true on the opposite end of the spectrum, with baneful teams like Washington and San Diego, helping inflate numbers of their opponents.

My advise on money line wagering is stick to certain limit (I use -175, normally about -155 otherwise) on favorites, since virtually anything above that number means you have to win two games for every loss.

Find bad teams playing well

It’s impossible to determine at the moment, however a few sub .500 teams are going to play unexpectedly well for long stretches and can be real bankroll builders. The absolute best recent example is the 2005 Houston Astros. At the end of July, Houston was 47-56 and going nowhere. Phil Garner was brought in as interim manager and nothing happen at first, then the Astros sky-rocketed, winning 42 of last 59 games and made the playoffs as wild card team before losing in the World Series to the Chicago White Sox. Keep antennae on high alert for this opportunity.

Ride Streaks Good and Bad

Just like in surfing, it’s not easy to catch the right wave. Too often, we as sports bettors are leery of streaks. We pay attention when a team wins or loses five in a row and often lack the confidence to “ride the tide” figuring the game we choose will be the loser. I’m not advocating “chase systems”, rather finding teams that have won possibly three in a row, are scoring runs like people flocking to a Harry Potter movie opening weekend and the right pitcher is starting. Play that team and who knows, they could have streak of seven or eight wins and you profited each time. One other piece of advise, think about playing that team one more time after a loss, since like many streaks, its not always consecutive wins, but winning nine of 11 or 12 of 15, those add up quickly also. Do the 2007 Colorado Rockies jog the memory, winning 11 in a row and 13 of 14 starting in mid-September? The exact method works for Play Against teams on losing binges.
Bullpens still matter

As innings start to mount on starting pitchers, the significance of the bullpen increases. Teams that have their house in order can see ERA of bullpen drop a half a run or more from here on out. This collection of relievers can provide a number of winning bets, saving small leads or games that are tied in the middle innings. Watch these numbers carefully.

Follow home/road records

By now, most teams have set up a pattern of playing tangible baseball home or away. The Red Sox, Dodgers, Tigers and Giants are all strong home wagers, while the Phillies, Rockies and both Los Angeles teams are the most profitable bets as visitors. Knowing this enhances chances to cash winning tickets more frequently.

September can be scary

For most sports bettors, once football starts, baseball is either finished or put on the back-burner. This is not a bad strategy for a number of reasons. Start with what teams care about winning and those waiting for the season to end. Contending teams offer little value unless they are playing each other, which is more a crap shoot late in the season. Expanded rosters, means more research to check who is or isn’t playing and being unfamiliar with called-up pitchers adds to the quandary.

Don’t blindly bet just to do so, since a bankroll that took five months to build can disappear quickly in 30 days. Be extremely judicious and only play games you feel are next to “locks”. Otherwise, set aside a few days to do baseball exclusively. An extremely successful bettor friend of mine bets baseball just on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday in September, giving him what he feels is ample time to prepare for football weekends.

Rockies in Great Betting Spot

The Colorado Rockies return to action with a four-game road excursion to San Diego to start the second half of the season. Colorado is solidly entrenched in third place in the NL West and is two games behind San Francisco for the wild card spot. The Rockies have just completed a 10-game homestand that was mildly disappointing with series records of 1-1-1 for a total of 6-4 record.

Long known for home/road dichotomy, Colorado (47-41, +6.6 units) has made tremendous strides this season with 24-22 mark as visitors and they are the third best bet in baseball in the traveling uniforms at +8.3 units.

In their opening game against San Diego, they will send their ace Aaron Cook (8-3, 3.98 ERA, 1.390 WHIP) to the mound. After a sluggish start to the season, Cook has been cookin’ with 5-0 record in last seven starts, only conceding more than two earned runs twice in that time.
The sinkerball specialist has always enjoyed facing Padres hitters, as they continually beat the ball into the ground against him. This has led to Cook posing 12-4 record versus San Diego, with sparking 2.71 ERA. With the Rockies having defeated Atlanta last Sunday to end the homestand, Cook and Colorado are 10-3 in road games after a win over the last two seasons.

San Diego (36-52, -12.1 units) has hit the skids and about the only thing that is going to change their luck is cloning Adrian Gonzalez. The Padres are dead last in the Major Leagues in scoring, averaging meager 3.8 runs per game. Gonzalez is the only effective run producer on a team that has lost 21 of last 29 games and is 11-26 in July the last two years.

The Friars will start Chad Gaudin (4-7, 5.03, 1.409), who is a pitching rollercoaster. Throughout most of the season he’s alternated good and bad performances and is off one of the better ones, allowing one run in 6 2/3 against Arizona, which resulted in no-decision for him.

Bookmaker.com has Colorado as -135 money line favorites with total Ov7, which fits very comfortably into a system supporting the Rocks.

Play On road favorites with a money line of -125 or more after seven or more consecutive home games, in July games.

There is no mystical reason why this superb system works; it just does with 51-12, 81 percent record since 1997. These matchups tend to one-sided as well, with teams like Colorado winning on the road by 2.7 runs per game. With San Diego really finding it challenging to scratch in the win column and 9-25 having lost two of their last three games this season, consider this exceptional situation.

British Open Betting Preview

The oldest and most prestigious major golf championship to those golfers around the world commences Thursday, with Tiger Woods commanding the lion’s share of attention, but not all of it. Though Mr. Woods is a decided favorite, several other top golfers are being considered for this weekend’s action, as potential champions in the third major tournament of the year.

Woods has three wins and eight top 10 finishes since returning to stroke play events in 2009, coming off knee surgery. It has been evident Tiger has not always trusted his full arsenal of shots this year, however with each tournament played; his confidence in different aspects of his game has grown.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Woods as +180 money line pick and links golf plays into his greatest strength, his mind. No professional golfer has a better imagination to develop shots and with his ability to execute; this is the reason why he is always the top choice to be champion. Don’t look to see the driver much from Woods, looking to keep the ball out of the deep rough.

Maybe it’s because Tiger hasn’t nailed down a major in 2009, but several different golfers are being given a chance to win the British Open.

One difference is just the fact it is a links course, making it more difficult to predict a winner by the ever-changing conditions one could see at Turnberry. Those who arrived early to play practice rounds have seen the weather fairly normal (sun, rain, sun and more rain), however the wind has blown from three different directions in three days.

Retief Goosen, Ian Poulter and Sergio Garcia are listed as +2000 choices to walk away with the Claret Jug. Goosen is always mentioned in any major, since his game is steady and he’s always at or near the top of the leaderboard. Poulter has been a little more erratic this season, with four Top 10 finishes, yet he’s finished below 50th in two of his last four starts. What can you say about Sergio? He’s only had one Top 10 finish in the States this season, as his balky putter continues to haunt him. One aspect in his favor, the greens at Turnberry are relatively flat, which should help, as he strives to finally win the “big one”.

The next group at +2500 is a cauldron of players and styles, which is as perplexing and wonderful as you will find. Padraig Harrington tried to improve his swing after winning the British Open and PGA Championship last year. To say it hasn’t worked as planned is similar is to saying former baseball star Lenny Dykstra has a few financial difficulties. Harrington recently won the Irish Open and even he wasn’t sure what this has done for his confidence, as he has two Top 20 (no Top 10’s) finishes in 13 other starts, with seven missed cuts.

Hunter Mahan is being given a chance to be solid contender, based on his last three tournaments in which he’s finished in order T6th, T4th and 2nd. The 6th place finish was at the U.S. Open and he fired a closing round 62 at the AT&T National, having the clubhouse lead until Tiger passed him with birdie late in his last event.

Rory Mcllroy gathers a great deal of attention as a young golf prodigy at 20 years old. Mcllroy has immense talent and if he can play well for first three days, he’s shown the pedigree of being able to knock down a good number on Sunday’s.

Lee Westwood has been playing consistent golf for over a year and is off two Top 10 finishes, making him a contender.

Martin Kaymer of Germany falls into the darkhorse category at +3000. Kaymer has quietly moved up to 11th in World Rankings with consecutive wins in the French Open and Barclays Scottish Open this past week. Kaymer’s short game is Top 10 material and he’s shown grace under pressure when leading.

Though 18 years older, Steve Stricker has a lot in common with Kaymer, besides the same odds to win the British Open. Sticker has four Top 3 finishes in 2009, including winning two of his last four starts. His win at the John Deere continues his career resurgence and he can roll the ball with the best of them with flat stick when confidence is at top level.

Geoff Ogilvy, Henrik Stenson, Jim Furyk and Paul Casey all deserve mention; nonetheless it all starts with El Tigre.

Tiger has won three previous British Opens, but as Mark Reason writes in the Sunday Independent, Woods’ wins have come on dry and more burned-out links courses. Turnberry has thick, lush rough and similar courses like Birkdale, Lytham, Troon, St George's and Carnoustie, have all kept him out of the winners circle.

Turnberry is in a remote part of Scotland and was used as an air-base for World War II. Now it will face the assault of the world’s best golfers, hosting the Open Championship for only the fourth time.

Looking back at Preseason MLB Futures Wagers

Back in March, one of my assignments was to go cover the strengths and weakness of each Major League Baseball team and make a prediction on how each club would likely measure up against the season totals set by the oddsmakers. With the baseball season roughly 54 percent completed, thought I would look back and see how I preformed four months ago and how I might end up when the final results are officially in.

National League (My pick and future record based on current form)

Philadelphia (Un88 – projected 90 wins)

The Phillies finally started to play well at Citizens Bank Park and are up to 22-23 record, having won nine of last 10. If the bullpen continues to improve and National League’s best offense keeps firing, playing in mediocre division, Philly should comfortably surpass 88 wins.

Florida (Ov75 – projected 83 wins)

Though the Marlins are -12 in runs scored/runs allowed, their starting pitching is expected to continue to improve, making me look I made the right choice.

Atlanta (84.5 No Call – projected 79 wins)

All the numbers prove this is .500 club and nothing really shows Atlanta should be any different the rest of the way. Might have overestimated the Braves slightly.

N.Y. York Mets (Ov89 – projected 78 wins)

Injuries to several starters have made the Mets a pedestrian offensive club. Beyond Johan Santana, unreliable starters pitch in rotation and bullpen allows too many keys hits. New York seldom rises to the occasion, as 16-25 record acknowledges as an underdog. Missed badly.

Washington (Un72.5 – projected 48 wins)

Firing the manager doesn’t change the players. The Nationals have too many young starting pitchers, deplorable bullpen and not enough every day players that care, all leading to another Washington failure. About as easy as it gets on this call.

St. Louis (Ov83.5 – projected 87 wins)

Called for the Cardinals to compete for division crown and they have been the best team in the NL Central thus far. They are on schedule to go Over the number and if Rick Ankiel, Chris Duncan and Ryan Ludwick find batting stroke, St. Louis should win 90 games.

Milwaukee (Ov81.5 – projected 83 wins)

I thought the Brewers were barely above .500 club and they have proven me correct thus far. Milwaukee lacks enough starting pitchers that could send the team on seven or eight game winning streak or play well over extended period, taking 15 of 20 contests for example. For the most part, the Crew wins when favored (28-19) and lose when expected (17-24 as underdogs).

Chicago Cubs (Ov92.5 – projected 81 wins)

As correct as I was about Washington, like everyone, missed the Cubs by a magnificent Michigan Mile. Offense has been horrendous, ranking 14th in the National League in run production at 4.1 per game. Inconsistent starting pitching and injuries, means the Chicago would have to go 50-26 the rest of the way to surpass total. In the words of Al Borland, “I don’t think so Tim.”

Houston (O73.5 – projected 81 wins)

Despite having more retreads in starting staff than a used car lot, the Astros have overachieved thus far. Nonetheless, staring at -30 in RS/RA means this isn’t put to bed yet.

Cincinnati (78.5 No call– projected 78 wins)

Cincinnati has played as presumed and if anything could go Under in the second half. Only two NL teams have worse RS/RA allowed figures.

Pittsburgh (Ov69 – projected 70 wins)

Thought the Pirates might climb to 71 or 72 wins and gave them waffling approval months ago. Unless they remain snake-bit in one run games (5-14), could have a winner here.

L.A. Dodgers (Ov85 – projected 103 wins)

The Dodgers figured to be better than last season, but on pace to win over 100 games, nobody saw that coming. The ability to dominate division foes (30-12) makes this easy winner.

San Francisco (Un79.5 – projected 90 wins)

The Giants pitching was to be their calling card in 2009 and has it ever. The wild card leader at the moment, San Francisco is first in fewest runs allowed (3.7) and strikeouts (7.9 PG) and second in hits allowed (7.9 PG) and batting average (.239). Still weary of offense holding up in late August and September, yet have to say I blew this one.

Colorado (Ov76.5 – projected 86 wins)

The Rockies are making me look smart, in their now typical fashion, closing 28-9 before the All-Star break. One aspect nobody counted on was Jason Marquis leading the senior circuit with 11 wins at this point.

Arizona (86 No call – projected 69 wins)

Though I had no real thoughts on the Diamondbacks, misjudged how badly this team can play. This club lacks focus and true determination. Playing better the rest of the way would not be a shocker, however the only way they get 86 wins is taking whole squad to Arizona Fall Instructional League and pick up wins there.

San Diego (Un71 – projected 66 wins)

Never wavered in my belief that San Diego is the least talented team in baseball, even after 9-3 start. The Padres are proving to be what they are, awful.

American League (My pick and future record based on current form)

Boston (Un94.5 – projected 99 wins)

The Red Sox are putting together another superb season, with first-class offense, good starting pitching and a deep and varied bullpen with lots of answers. Thought this would be really solid team, but not at this pace.

N.Y. Yankees (Ov94.5 – projected 93 wins)

New York bumbled early and have bounced back to play superior baseball, if you disregard another lost trip in Anaheim. Expect this total to come down to last few days of the season.

Tampa Bay (Un88.5 – projected 87 wins)

Really believed the Rays would to come back to earth after unforeseen 2008 campaign. Tampa Bay is in wild card contention at the minimum, how they finish on the road (18-26 presently) will go a long way in determining final results. They will not have the benefit of playing the NL East any longer, whom they were 12-3 against.

Toronto (Un72 – projected 79 wins)

Though this prediction appears to be a loser, if Roy Halladay is traded soon, have to think this still could be good, with 35 of the Blue Jays remaining 62 games against Red Sox, Yankees and Rays.

Baltimore (Un78.5 – projected 73 wins)

The Orioles do have some positives, with young talent starting to emerge in spots. Nevertheless, too challenging a division has the Birds falling short.

Detroit (Ov81.5 – projected 89 wins)

Detroit made too many wise decisions in the off-season not to be better than last year. With improved defense, a potent batting order and better than presumed bullpen, this is the team to beat in AL Central.

Chic. White Sox (Ov77.5 – projected 83 wins)

The peripheral numbers suggest nothing more than a .500 team and have to agree. This is still accurate enough to project a correct prognostication for the White Sox.

Minnesota (Ov83.5 – projected 82 wins)

You never count Minnesota out until they are dead. Manager Ron Gardenhire is one of the best and the Twins +29 in runs RS/RA suggests they could well compete with Detroit (+32) down the stretch and go Over the total.

Kansas City (Un76.5 – projected 68 wins)

The Royals higher expectations have met resistance, as sorry offense that is 29th in runs scored, wastes too many good outings by starting pitchers, who feel compelled to be almost perfect to win.

Cleveland (Ov85.5 – projected 64 wins)

Having seen Cleveland a few times in spring training, I really believed the Indians had enough offense to overcome below average staff. Could not have been more wrong than Washington (past and present), believing stimulus packages are solution to fixing economy.

L.A. Angels (Ov88.5 – projected 92 wins)

Even with the preseason injuries, who would have thought journeyman Matt Palmer would have more wins as starting pitcher (7), than John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar (5) combined and the Angels would be on pace to win 92 games at break. Juan Rivera, Bobby Abreu, Chone Figgins and Torii Hunter have kept Los Angeles busy on the base paths with top hitting team and second in runs scored.

Texas (Ov74 – projected 89 wins)

The Rangers can still hit, averaging 4.9 runs per game, but it has been the pitching that has turned Texas into division and wild card contender. After years of having pathetic pitching, the Rangers are middle of the pack in runs surrendered at 4.6 per game, thanks to off-season regiment and organizational influence. Spotted preseason banter and jumped on board.

Seattle (Un73 – projected 85 wins)

Is it possible the Mariners are really fifth in runs given up? I can not see this holding up, especially with 25th ranked offense. Seattle is 21-13 in one run games, which has kept the Mariners afloat.

Oakland (Un82.5 – projected 70 wins)

“Moneyball” is about as relevant as the Stone Temple Pilots these days, with the Athletics having more “For Sale” signs than a neighborhood full of foreclosures.

Total Betting Withdrawal Today

This is never a fun day. The whole Home Run Derby is a mild distraction Monday night, watching long prestigious shots that look like they could hit the Mississippi River on the one bounce in St. Louis, but that is not what I’m talking about. This is about no real sports to bet on. There two days every year, where no major sports are available to wager on, the day before and after the baseball All-Star game.

Today is the worst of the two days by far in my opinion, because most of the time there is a WNBA game, horse racing or something to at least think about betting on, but for this Monday, well it stinks. (Couldn’t use the word I wanted)

I mean really, think about it, especially when it comes to basketball followed by baseball. You study, analyze and go over a myriad of possibilities for months daily and suddenly; you’re Will Smith in “I am Legend”, nothing to do. Damn it’s not fair.

So what does a sports bettor do, this is what I’m thinking about. I bought a fresh batch of college and pro football annuals, so this year instead of working 80+ hours a week getting to know all the ins and outs of all the teams at the end of August, I won’t procrastinate and get a head start.

(Is this Tim Tebow’s sixth year of eligibility?) In fact, I just received in the mail my 2009 StatFox Edge (cheesy plug) and I’ll start combing thru what college starters are coming back, along with the all important quarterback position and the number of linemen and backups reporting. Actually this is really a good idea, because the last time I was truly prepared for almost anything was my sister’s wedding and that was because my parents were all over me.

Don’t misunderstand, I’m ready to go when the bell sounds, it’s the whole preparation deal is not my strongest suit. I’ve checked around and New England, the Giants and Philadelphia look like Super Bowl potential teams at Bookmaker.com, along with the defending champion Steelers. Pittsburgh has plenty to admire, nevertheless, I seldom wager on NFL futures on last year’s champions.

Gee, I wonder if Brett Favre is going to sign with Minnesota, they even have a picture on the internet of the place he bought. Or possibly, Favre’s going into real estate investment after staying up late one night and watching one of the guru’s talk about buying homes “with almost nothing down”.

“Hi I’m Brett Favre and I’ve made millions playing football and turned into prima donna, however, I think I retired for the last time and now am buying real estate properties across the country, trying to improve my image and doing my part to stimulate the economy, all while wearing my Wrangler jeans.”

I thought of something else I could do, review all my notes I made on baseball before the season. That might be a pretty good way to see if what I believed is still true or am I living under false pretense. I think the last time I did this Vida Blue was pitching in the All-Star game as a rookie. I’m having an average baseball season by my standards; maybe a refresher is a good idea.
I have golf wagering down cold and would study the British Open this week anyways, but now I have to fit it in somewhere the next couple of days.

This is invigorating thinking about being productive with this time off. I can catch up, look ahead and act like people that really work for a living.

Come Wednesday morning, I’ll be waiting at this computer for Thursday’s eight baseball games to have official odds, because that is what gambling degens like me do, live for the action.

Written by Red Wydley.

Wagering on the Home Run Derby

Over the weekend an unofficial poll was taken and 52+ percent of the people given the choice between watching the All-Star game or the Home Run Derby preferred to watch the latter. While that fits nicely into Major League baseball wanting to promote the entire event, the folks at FOX Sports can’t be crazy about the outcome.

The Home Run Derby is meaningless fun and eight contestants have been chosen, here is a breakdown of what to look for, with odds courtesy of DiamondSportsbook.com.

Albert Pujols (+200)

Baseball’s best player will have a few inherent advantages, with one being in his own home park and being able to stay emotionally charged with fan support. Pujols is a legitimate Triple Crown threat, leading the National League in home runs (32), runs batted in (87) and fourth in batting average (.332). Pujols should hit over 50 home runs for the first time in his career and will try to not alter his swing too much to win this contest, not wanting to mess with it after coming out of mild slump. The Redbird first baseman is odds-on favorite to win after making semis two seasons ago and runner-up in 2003.

Ryan Howard (+250)

The 2006 champion is tied for fifth in the National League with 22 dingers and will have fan support at Busch Stadium, being a Missouri native. Howard’s bat has been a trifle slower in 2009, but his uppercut swing against beach ball tosses is tailor-made for this event. His biggest worry is being too jacked-up and expending a great deal of energy early.

Adrian Gonzalez (+500)

Gonzalez is the first Padre to being in this event since 1992, when Fred McGriff and Gary Sheffield were participants and the game was in San Diego. Gonzalez is tied for second in the senior circuit with 24 home runs and his 67 walks in 88 games is sure to double, being San Diego’s only true threat in the lineup. The easy-going first baseman could make a name for himself in winning The Derby, since it will be the only time you will hear or see him based on the Friars play this season.

Prince Fielder (+500)

After failing to hit 40 home runs last season, Fielder is back on pace in 2009 and has to be darkhorse for this competition. He has the power to compete and like Howard has natural uppercut swing. His downfall could be the heat and humidity of St. Louis and using up a lot of energy early and not having much in the tank if he would make the final round.

Brandon Inge (+1200)

This is turning out to be quite a season of change of Inge. After being the Detroit catcher in the middle of 2008 campaign, Inge was moved back to his more normal third base position to improve Tigers defense. Though not a noted power hitter, Inge has 21 long balls this season, playing for division leader and was voted on by the fans to make the All-Star game. He probably more than anyone knows his hard work has paid off in good fortune and will be excited about gaining notoriety. Definite long shot.

Joe Mauer (+800)

Mauer’s inclusion in the Home Run Derby is somewhat mystery based on volume; however this could be a precursor of things to come. Mauer leads the Major Leagues in hitting with .373 batting average. He has a career high 15 homers at the break, despite playing in only 64 games due to missing the first few weeks of the season. At 26, he starting to show the track of top notch player whose power numbers go up with age. He’ll be trying to two in a row for Minnesota players, as he is the other half of the M&M boys, with Justin Morneau last year’s champion.

Nelson Cruz (+600)

The most exciting player in last’s year Home Run Derby was Josh Hamilton of Texas, who was too tired to finish the deal after putting on a memorable show early on. Nelson Cruz has 22 shots that have cleared fences this season and Cruz has stated he expects to be in the thick of the action, though doesn’t see himself hitting 28 in the first round like Hamilton his last season.

Carlos Pena (+600)

The American League’s leading home run hitter is truly honored to make the team as replacement for Dustin Pedroia, who instead went to be with pregnant wife. Pena has found a home in Tampa Bay and the slugging first baseman has 24 home runs and is another darkhorse, if he can keep emotions in check.

Winner –Albert Pujols
Runner up - Carlos Pena

Last Day of Baseball Betting for now

It wasn’t perfection, thanks to the Nats rapping out 21 hits, but 2-1 will do. Today we have an 89.4 percent system in the Keystone State. Though I was personally 1-2, had a winner here and look to make in five straight. Top Trend is perfect 10-0. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday: The victory over the Yankees on Saturday marked the fourth time in nine games on its current homestand that Mike Scioscia's Angels team has won a game in which it had trailed by four-or-more runs. Think that's no big deal? It's only the fifth time since 1900 that a major league team has done so, and the first time since the St. Louis Browns earned four such wins during a 20-game homestand back in June 1940! This is also the first time in the team's 49-year history that the Angels have won four such games in the same month - single homestand or no. (Thanks, Elias)

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like Pittsburgh with a money line of +150 or more, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for five or more earned runs, against opponent with a hot bullpen who’s WHIP is under 1.200 the last 10 games. The last three years this is wondrous system at 34-3.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Tampa Bay Rays are 10-0 in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 over the last two seasons. The average wining margin has been 3.4 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) I’ve hit four in a row; let’s make it five with the battling Birds of Baltimore with starting pitcher Brad Bergesen. (Say that fast five times)

New StatFox Football Annual on Sale – Must for Every Sports Bettor

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