New Methodology for Betting NFL Win Totals

This time of year, football sports bettors are putting together their thoughts about how certain teams might perform in the upcoming NFL season. They are picking up magazines, reading thru a variety of there favorite websites, all intended to collect information for the season ahead. One aspect looked at profoundly for the sports bettor this time of year is futures wagers. These wagers involve betting on team’s total wins, winning the division, conference and the Super Bowl. Here, we will focus on team win totals and a different way of looking at trying to find value.

For those that have read any of my previous articles, you know I’m big on score differentials in almost every sport. Baseball tends to be the easiest to make sense of these numbers, because of the number of games played and runs (points) being scored one at a time. I recently wrote the Cincinnati Reds might have second half problems based on runs scored and allowed and that the Cleveland Indians should not be forgotten because they still have a potent lineup with descent peripheral numbers and they have won six of last 10 despite being out of pennant contention.

While I have followed the same numbers in football, I haven’t always been able to determine a way to view them, until now.

What I’m looking for is can last year’s points scored and allowed results lead to winning wagers on win totals? Football is completely different because of roster changes at key positions, schedules being significantly different from one year to the next and injuries often time being even more important with so few games played.

Using the same method I borrowed from Bill James from his Baseball Abstract days, I went through and devised a methodology to determine accurate win percentages based on points scored and given up.

I’ll use the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers as the example. The Steelers scored 347 points during the regular season and begrudgingly conceded 223. Take both numbers and square them.

347 x 347 =120409
223 x 223 = 49729

Add the two numbers together and divide the points scored into the total to achieve percentage.

120409 divided by 170138 = .707

What I found about doing this for football as compared to baseball is you have to add .050 for teams with 10 or more wins and subtract .050 for teams that won six or less games. If a team has won seven, eight or nine contests, take the number at face value.

Thus for Pittsburgh, take the .707 percentage, add .050 and new total is .757. Last year, during the regular season, coach Mike Tomlin’s squad was 12-4, with win percentage of .750.

Let’s look back at past teams for proof this should work. The 2007 Detroit Lions were 7-9, as were the Chicago Bears. The Lions scored 346 points and allowed 444, while the Bears totaled 334 and surrendered 348. Calculating the numbers, Detroit should have won 6.03 games and Chicago 7.6. The conclusion is the Lions probably overachieved and were set up to do worse, which they did with flying colors, in completing first 0-16 season. The Bears played about as expected given their numbers.

With only 16 games in the regular season, any difference of one or greater is noteworthy.

Another example is Jacksonville in 2006, which finished 8-8, scoring 371 points and giving up 274, a positive difference of 97. Based on the figures, the Jaguars should have won 10.3 games, not eight and they went on to 11-5 record and made the AFC Conference semi-finals in 2007.

What teams meet the criteria for success or failure in 2009? The San Diego Chargers deserved credit for coming back and winning AFC West, though Denver shared equal blame in failing to win. The Chargers garnered 439 points, while permitting 347. This means the Bolts should have won 9.8 games last season, not finishing 8-8. Sportsbook.com has them listed as Ov9.5 wins for the upcoming campaign, which is reasonable wager given the players coming back and change of direction to Phillip Rivers team.

The Green Bay Packers were 6-10, through no fault of Aaron Rodgers, who played beyond most expectations. The Pack was 419 and 380 in points scored and allowed. Using this method of interpretation, Green Bay should have won almost eight games (7.9) and could be poised to surprise in 2009 and surpass the Un9 number posted on them.

Three NFL teams could be poised to fall in 2009. The Indianapolis Colts have made a coaching change as Tony Dungy retired, which means change and the defense will see the biggest alteration. New head coach Jim Caldwell may see a few growing pains, as last year’s 12-4 club projected out at 10.6 victories.

Miami found lightening in a bottle on the way to 11-5 season, after one win the prior season. The Dolphins only had a point differential of +28, which extrapolated out totals 9.4 wins.

Finally, the aforementioned Denver Broncos lost a three game lead with three games to play to blow the division title with unfortunate 8-8 record. That led to the firing of Mike Shanahan and new coach Josh McDaniels poorly handled the Jay Cutler situation, leaving Denver without a franchise-type quarterback and with Kyle Orton. The Broncos -78 point differential was most similar to Seattle (-98) who finished 4-12. Denver’s numbers projected to 6.4 wins and they are listed as Un7 for upcoming season.

I’m not suggesting these plays are rock solid; take them to the bank action. In the time allotted for research completed, this came to make sense with verifiable proof these numbers don’t lie. If you liked any of these teams to begin with, just one more reason to place a wager.

One last thing, if you choose to do some searching of your own, forget about the Tennessee Titans. The expression “all rules don’t apply to everyone” perfectly fits Tennessee with Jeff Fisher as coach. His teams consistently overachieve and they are the newer version of “Just win baby”.

Nats streak in jeopardy facing gruesome system

Breakup the Nationals! That’s what New York, San Diego and Milwaukee are thinking. The Mets and Padres lost series to Washington last week on the road and Milwaukee could become their third straight victim with a victory either tonight or tomorrow. The Nationals have won four in a row and six of eight, picking up seven units of profit for the shrewd sports bettor.

The Nationals are ninth in runs scored in the National League at 4.4 per game and are hotter than scalding water from the plate, averaging 9.5 runs during this winning streak, batting .342 as a team. Washington’s pitching staff has many faults and several ghastly numbers, however, they have held six of last eight opponents to four or less runs.

Washington, honestly (those two words are an oxymoron) should have a better record than 32-68 (-30.3 units), but a group of young starters are going to make mistakes as part of the growing process. Where things really fall apart is when the bullpen has gotten involved.

These non-starters have themselves accounted for 30 losses, while gaining only 11 victories. They have collective ERA of 5.24, having allowed 325 base hits in just over 309 innings, plus walking 173 more batters. Washington is the only team in the Major Leagues with a save percentage below .500, at 44.1 percent, blowing 19 saves in 34 attempts.

This month has been a full-blown disaster for Milwaukee, with seven wins in 23 games, which has seen them drift downwardly to fourth place in the NL Central, after starting July in first place. Brewers’ batters for the most part are holding up their end of the bargain, totaling 10 or more hits in 13 contests this month, but the pitching staff deserves a Dick Enberg “Oh my”.

Milwaukee has lost seven of last nine contests and no wonder, since the pitching staff has ERA of almost seven (6.81), with starting pitchers slightly worse, surrendering 6.89 earned runs and 10 home runs during this time span.

Tonight’s starter Manny Parra, has made a season long contribution to Milwaukee’s below .500 mark (49-51, -6.5 units) with 4-8 record. Parra has ERA of 6.42 and the Brew Crew has won exactly 25 percent of the left-hander’s starts (4-12) in 2009.

Many sports bettors don’t have the cold detachment of the oddsmakers to create a line objectively, based on a body of work, not just recent trends. This is why DiamondSportsbook.com for example has Milwaukee as -195 money line favorites, despite many reasons not to play the Brewers. Here is one outstanding reason to back the Brewers tonight.

Play Against road teams with average offensive, scoring 4.3 to 4.8 runs a game, against a faulty NL starting pitcher with ERA of 5.70 or higher, with a bad bullpen, whose ERA is 5.00 or worse on the season.

How this system has proven to work is the road club will return to typical numbers they produce. The opposing teams starting pitcher could well have better outing against an ordinary offensive club and if the game is close in the later innings, the road team’s bullpen will probably find a way to lose the game.

Dating back to when Madeleine Albright became first female Secretary of State of the United States (1997), this system is 34-8, 81 percent. In fact, this system has been especially lethal in the last five years with 20-3 record, with average winning margin of almost two runs.

Seeking Tuesday Triumphs

Wasn’t that something about King Felix getting crowned to keep Seattle’s negative streak alive? We bounce right back off losing day with three winners, just like the blog says. Only one top notch system and it involves two AL East squads. Throwing out two Top Trends that are combined 22-0. The Free Plays continue to percolate and Mark has a parlay on tap. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – Aerosmith can still rock with the best of them. Steven Tyler doesn’t run around like he used to, but still a very good frontman. Joe Perry has more active role these days, maybe because of Guitar Hero or possibility to take a little pressure off Tyler. ZZ Top was good and they showed popular MTV videos from the 80’s when they played the songs. My daughter knew most of the songs and enjoyed it, having heard them growing up.

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Free Baseball System-1) The only qualify system today suggests to PLAY ON home favorites like Boston with a money line of -175 to -250, with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL), after a win by four runs or more. Over the last dozen years, this system checks in 83-17, 83 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Going to step out a bit and provide two trends on teams off losses. The L.A. Dodgers are 10-0 this season off a pair of defeats and Tampa Bay is 12-0 in home games after allowing nine runs or more.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Mark moved up to 8-2, with his top play cashing yesterday. Tonight he has a Yankees and Red Sox money line parlay.

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Oddmakers allowing Miami Dolphins to play respect card

The five year win pattern of the Miami Dolphins resembles most bettors wagering accounts over the same period. Starting in 2004, four wins, nine wins (2005), six wins (2006), one win (2007), followed up with last year’s miraculous turnaround that led to division crown and 11 conquests. The oddsmakers were so unimpressed with last year’s performance; they have established them as Un7.5 total wins for 2009 campaign.

You can’t blame the messenger for setting the numbers, like those at Bookmaker.com; all they can do is look at the facts and make a highly educated prediction. And while 50 percent of the football public outside of Dade County still thinks the Miami’s head coach’s name is Tony Soprano, from the TV show, the real coach, Tony Sparano, can utilize the “lack of respect card”, placing it in his back pocket this August as motivational tool. They question is, are the oddmakers wrong?

A team coming off a 15-loss season should be happy to beat almost anyone to get back on track. Last year’s complete turnaround was surrounded by many factors. The first was the hiring of Bill Parcells, who set a different tone in South Beach; he wanted football players committed to winning, not just earning a living. The hiring of Sparano was the right fit, as his contagious enthusiasm and positive belief system filtered throughout the locker room, which was less antagonistic to Parcells often acidic tongue. Lastly, Chad Pennington had been discarded by the Jets and had a chip on his shoulder the length of Ocean Drive.

After losing four of first six contests, Miami started to sizzle like a Caribbean nightclub. The Dolphins won nine of last 10 regular season games (5-5 ATS), including last five, of which four were on the road. A closer look reveals mostly beatable teams and Miami did a splendid job in defeating those clubs. In there last 10 contests, only New England and the Jets had winning records at the end of the season. With plenty of hype surrounding a rebuilt Patriots team, the Fins were squashed at home 48-28 as two-point underdogs. Miami won the division beating Jets team in free fall 24-17, in the last game of the regular season. Certainly noteworthy accomplishment given they manufactured one win the previous year; however they were the better team at that point, as customary +3 points on the road proved.

This year’s schedule looks like a massive upgrade, starting with trading the NFC West for the much better NFC South. Only Tampa Bay looks to be worse than .500 team in this group. In the AFC, the West contingent of four teams has been exchanged for arguably the best division in football, the AFC South. This switch of divisions alone could account for two or three losses, even if Miami plays at the same level as last season.

New England is presumed to be better with Tom Brady back in control and Buffalo and the Jets are thought to be similar, with the Bills a touch better and the Flyboys a little worse.

Miami would not seem to have the same luxury of slow start, followed by big finish. The first three games are at Atlanta, home to Indianapolis on Monday night, followed by a short week cross-country journey to San Diego. The final six encounters read this way in exact order - @ Buffalo, New England, @ Jacksonville, @ Tennessee, Houston and Pittsburgh. Depending on various factors, the Dolphins might only be favored twice in last six tilts.

Pick up any fantasy football magazine and you will have a difficult time finding Chad Pennington in the upper half of quarterback ratings. True, winning and fantasy football are completely different, however does anyone really expect Pennington to improve? Since becoming a starter in the Big Apple in 2002, Pennington has averaged 15 starts in the even-numbered years, in the three odd-numbered years, less than seven.

Ronnie Brown should have greater offensive impact as running back and the offensive line should be even more cohesive with a year under their belts. The wide receivers are average, as Ted Ginn Jr. has shown little improvement as route runner, though Pennington and tight end Anthony Fasano clicked.

The Fins defense improved greatly last season to 15th in total defense and ninth in points allowed. With a schedule of much better offenses, linebacker Joey Porter will have to lead the younger players by example. Porter was revitalized in playing 3-4 defense again and Jason Ferguson has to be the anchor at nose tackle. The secondary allowed yards (227.5, ranked 25th), but yanked 18 interceptions out of the air.

Turnover margin is the single biggest influence on any team and Miami was No.1 last year at +17. It is infrequently teams come anywhere close to replicating high turnover figures the next season. Recent examples include the unbeaten Patriots going from +16 to +1, as record fell from 16-0 to 11-5. In 2006, Baltimore had 13-3 record and +15 in turnover margin. The following season, racked with injuries, a complete reversal to -17 and 5-11 campaign. Seattle was a 10-6 division champion in 2007, with +10 on turnovers, last season, -7 and dismal 4-12 season.

Just after 2010 arrives, we’ll have clear idea how right or wrong the oddsmakers were on Miami, here is one vote for the Under, with 7-9 season for disappointed Dolphins fans.

Pitching Matchups to ponder

In the National League, two games standout Tuesday, one because of its importance and who the starting pitcher’s are and the other strictly because the two hurlers have dominating potential. These two contests overshadow the rest the other six games in the senior circuit and should be entertaining for sports bettors and baseball fans alike.

Houston at Chicago

The Chicago Cubs (52-45, -1.9 units) played liked they preferred first place, as Alfonso Soriano hit a walk-off grand slam in the bottom of the 13th inning last night that allowed the Cubs to stay at the top of the division. Chicago has played fewer games to date than any NL Central team; however is three games clear of any competitor in the loss column.

Ryan Dempster (5-5, 4.09) comes off the DL today for Chicago, after missing just over three weeks with a fractured toe after jumping over the dugout railing to go on the field and celebrate a win over Milwaukee on July 5. Dempster has loved pitching at Wrigley Field and is 4-1 there this season. Bookmaker.com has established the Cubs as -110 money line home favorites, which suits Dempster, who is 32-12 at home when the money line is +125 to -125 during his big league career. (Team's Record)

He will go to battle against Roy Oswalt (6-4, 3.66) of Houston. Earlier this season, whispers were circulating maybe Oswalt was no longer a first-rate pitcher. In his last six starts, Oswalt has proven otherwise to his critics. The right-hander has 2.00 ERA in his last six outings, with the Astros having won the last five. He and his Astros teammates are 20-5 vs. a NL team with an on-base percentage .325 or worse.

The Cubs will be chasing a sixth straight win and are 47-24 as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. This division battle begins at 8:05 Eastern on WGN.

Philadelphia at Arizona

The Phillies (57-40, +10.2 units) are thankful Arizona has a retractable roof in downtown Phoenix, since tonight’s game time temperature is expected to be around 115 degrees again. Philadelphia hopes Cole Hamels (6-5, 4.66) can regain late season form from a year ago and put some heat on the Diamondbacks. With the Phillies having won 18 of last 21 games, they will be facing one of the hottest pitchers in baseball all season in Dan Haren (10-5, 2.14).

Many have speculated Hamels heavy workload from a season ago has taken a toll this season, with a number poor performances and missed starts. The lefthander has looked better lately, allowing four runs in 12 innings in his last two starts. This will be a good test for Hamels to see if he really has regained prior form, since he is 2-3, with hefty 5.81 ERA on the road. In the past, Hamels and the Phils have feasted on revolting teams like Arizona (43-57, -16.2 units), with 13-3 road record against losing teams.

The D-Backs play a whole lot better when Haren in on the mound, winning 13 of 20 games, with the strong possibility of emerging victorious five other times if they would have had any offensive production. Haren showed a human side in his last start, charged with four runs on eight hits in five innings against the Pittsburgh, as he struggled with command. That was only the second time all season Haren surrendered more than three runs, his first such outing since May 23 in Oakland.

Haren has been a shutdown starter, with 7-0 record after the opposing team scored five or more runs. (D-Backs Record) Arizona opened as a -135 money line favorite, but sports bettors quickly pounded that line and the Snakes are now -112. That doesn’t change the fact Haren and Arizona are 9-3 as -110 to -150 home favorites, with the Phillies 11-3 in road games after a win by four runs or more this season.

Haren will throw the first pitch in the desert at 9:40 Eastern and fans can watch in local markets or on MLB.TV.

Monday, Monday I still love that day

An almost odd losing day gives us 166-104-3, 61.4 percent mark over three and half months. With yesterday killer system a failure, we’ll try and come right back with another that is 93.2 percent. If you like Felix Hernandez as much as I do, you at least have to pause with Trend that is out there tonight. Free Plays are broiling and Mark has one for tonight. Good Luck.

Activity Report – No baseball viewing or listening tonight, its ZZ Top and Aerosmith on the west side of Phoenix. Temperature at show time should be around 109, that’s degrees.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250, who couldn’t break a air-filled plastic bag with a bat, hitting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a molten starting pitcher, with WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. Pittsburgh goes against Tim Lincecum for a system that is 55-4, 93.2 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) This won’t be official play because King Felix is pitching for Seattle, nonetheless it does make it a bit scary to support the Seattle when they are 0-18 after allowing 10 runs or more. On the record, Philadelphia is the play since they are 10-1 in road games after two or more consecutive Overs this season, winning by 2.2 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) The Free Play is 14-2 the last 16 days and Mark of the Left Coast Connection was 6-1 this weekend and likes Texas to tame the Tigers.

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Time for Rays to Roll

You will have to forgive the Tampa Bay Rays for possibly not giving their best performance on Sunday, losing 5-1 to Toronto. Tampa Bay still won the series north of the border and completed one of the better road trips of the year with 6-4 record. While it’s true, every game will count the same no matter when it’s played over a 162-game schedule, some games and series have more meaning then others, which would be the case starting Monday night for the Rays.

Manager Joe Madden’s club is 54-45 (+1.3 units) and trails the first place New York Yankees by 6.5 games in the AL East. In order for Tampa Bay to start closing the gap, they have to do no worse than win two out of three encounters in opening up big nine-game homestand.

“This is a crucial homestand,” Pat Burrell said. “I think it will dictate a lot, especially with the (July 31 trade) deadline coming up. If we have a real good homestand, I mean real good; we’re going to be in a good place.”

The Rays will try to build on recent success they have enjoyed at Tropicana Field, where they have won 20 of last 25. Tampa Bay knows the Bronx Bombers have explosive offensive, which they have managed to turnaround to their favor with 22-6 mark at home vs. an AL team with an on-base percentage of .345 or better.

James Shields (6-6, 3.70 ERA) will be given the assignment of containing New York and he’s had more than his share of problems. Shields’ hasn’t won a game since June 20 and his ERA is 5.89 in his last three starts. Fortunately, he loves pitching at The Trop and is 4-2 there this season and with the Rays off a loss, Shields and mates are 8-2 on home turf.

The Yankees (60-38, +1.2 units) leave home having won 10 of 11 and open an important road trip in West Florida. Besides facing Tampa Bay, New York will have four in the Windy City with the White Sox and head to Toronto for two tilts before returning home to take on the challenge of Boston.

The Yankees haven’t always been dominant during this streak, but they found ways to win. Joe Girardi’s veteran club is 12-2 in last 14 contests against right-hander hurlers and has conquered teams with winning records to the tune of 15-5. A.J. Burnett (9-4, 3.74) has settled into the role the New York front office had in mind when they doled out $82.5 million contract to him. Over his last six starts, Burnett has been dominating, sporting 5-1 record and 1.82 ERA.

DiamondSportsbook.com has New York as -110 money line road favorites, with total Un9. The Yanks have won 12 of 14 when Burnett is wearing the favorite cap and they are 41-17 as chalk. New York is 6-0 UNDER in Burnett’s last six starts. Though Shields is effective pitcher at home, Yankees hitters have brought out the worst in him with 1-6 record, 5.73 ERA in eight career starts. He’ll seek previous magic which has allowed the Rays to win 27 of his 35 home starts, including four of five as underdog. Since leaving the name Devil Rays behind, Tampa Bay is 13-3 UNDER as a home underdog of +100 to +125.

Game 1 of this weighty series is set to commence at 7:08 Eastern and can be viewed on YES and Fox Sports Florida, along with MLB.TV. Burnett is 8-4 versus the Rays in his career and New York is 12-9 the last few years as visitor where Big Stein resides.

No Slack Sunday Info

Keep those 2-1 days comin’! Our goal today is that or more and Sal has been a huge part of recent success and has another Free Play. The Top Trend examines how the Royals play in a particular situation and the Best System is a virgin this season; however is the highest of quality at 91.8 percent. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday –Including tonight, the Detroit Tigers have seven more games left with the Chicago White Sox. The Tigers lead the season series 7-4 and if they can finish with a winning record over the Pale Hose, it will be just the second time in 18 years they will have won a season series against Chicago, remarkable.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON all favorites like the Red Sox with a money line of -175 to 250, who are slightly below average AL hitting team at .265 or less, against a passable starting pitcher (ERA of 4.20 or less), in the second half of season. This is the first time this system has appeared this year and why it is so potent is because if the team is this large a favorite, given the situation as explained, they should win. Since 1997, 45-4, 91.8 percent. Gulp!

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Kansas City Royals are 1-11 as a home underdog of +125 or more this season, losing by 3.2 runs per contest.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal’s was 3-1 again on Saturday making him 28-7, 75 percent and he believes Houston is just too hot for the Mets.

New StatFox Football Annual on Sale – A must for Every Sports Bettor – If you wonder if this publication is worth the money, read this review. http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/ncaafootballbetting/fr/statfox09.htm

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Sunday Night Baseball Preview

Carlos Guillen’s return from the disabled list might be the spark the Detroit Tigers need to help them remain on top of the AL Central. The first-place Tigers look to stay perfect with Guillen back and complete their first four-game sweep of the Chicago White Sox in almost 21 years Sunday night at Comerica Park. These division rivals entered this series tied atop the AL Central, but after Detroit (52-44, +5.3 units) swept a doubleheader Friday and rallied for a 4-3, 10-inning victory Saturday, the Tigers have a three-game lead over the second-place White Sox.

Guillen’s return has helped put the Tigers on the verge of their first four-game sweep of the White Sox (50-48, +2.4 units) since Aug. 18-21, 1988.

After missing over 2 1/2 months with a shoulder injury, Guillen went 3 for 7 with a homer Friday and 2 for 5 with two RBIs, including the game-winning single Saturday to help the Tigers to a third straight victory after losing five of six. “I’m excited to be back, and I’m happy that I’m helping us win,” said Guillen, a lifetime .330 hitter against the White Sox.


While Detroit has struggled to consistently produce at the plate, the presence of a veteran like Guillen should make opposing pitchers a bit more careful when facing a lineup that also features All-Stars Miguel Cabrera, Brandon Inge and Curtis Granderson and the Tigers are 17-6 with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games this season.


“He (Guillen) makes the whole offense different,” shortstop Ramon Santiago told the Tigers’ official Web site.


Granderson’s double off Chicago closer Bobby Jenks with two outs in the ninth tied the game Saturday. Jenks, who has failed to convert his last two save chances, has a 9.45 ERA in his last six appearances.


“I’m not even mad,” Jenks said another shaky outing. “The way things had gone in the last week, we had worked on stuff mechanically, and we got the little kinks worked out. (Saturday), everything was sharp.”


A.J. Pierzynski homered for one of his four hits and Scott Podsednik added three hits with an RBI for the White Sox, who haven’t been able to carry over the momentum from Mark Buehrle’s perfect game against Tampa Bay on Thursday and they have fallen to 8-21 in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs a game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.


“When he pitched his last no-hitter in 2007, we lost five in a row, and now we’ve lost three,” manager Ozzie Guillen said. “Mark Buehrle, this is all your fault.”


Podsednik is 7 for 17 (.412) in his last four games, while Pierzynski is 6 for 9 in this series. Chicago looks to bounce back while facing Detroit rookie Rick Porcello (9-6, 4.40 ERA) for the first time and they have lost seven contests against right-handed hurlers.


Looking to lighten the 20-year-old’s workload, Porcello made his first start since July 5, and allowed five runs and nine hits in five innings of a 9-7 win over Seattle on Tuesday. The right-hander is 1-2 with a 9.45 ERA in his last three starts.


“I just have to stay sharp physically and mentally,” Porcello told the Tigers’ official Web site. Porcello should benefit from his Tiger teammates being 18-6 at home against teams with winning record.


The White Sox counter with Clayton Richard (3-3, 5.00), who allowed one run and four hits in eight innings, but didn’t factor in the decision of a 3-2 loss to Tampa Bay on Tuesday after Jenks couldn’t hold a one-run lead in the ninth. Despite the outcome, it was a step in the right direction for Richard, whose 0-2 with a 7.82 ERA in his last three starts. In his only start versus Detroit, the left-hander allowed three runs while walking five in 4 2/3 innings, but left without a decision in a 5-4 loss to Detroit on June 8.


DiamondSportsbook.com has Detroit as -140 money line favorites, with the total listed at Un9.5. The Tigers are 12-2 at Comerica Park versus left-hand starters and 16-5 UNDER after three consecutive games versus a division rival this year. The White are 19-39 as road underdogs of +150 or less and are 19-8 UNDER vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game.

First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 Eastern on ESPN and manager Jim Leyland’s club is 9-0 in home games vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 in 2009.




Jeff Mezydlo, STATS Senior writer and Doug Upstone contributed to this article.

Trying to catch the wave on a Saturday

Missed out on perfect day, but what the heck, 2-1 brings home the money right? Sal continues his amazing work and has another top play for Free. The Top Trend is another reverse perfect play. The Best System is in the AL and is 57-14. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – Brett Anderson struck out the side in order in the first inning of his loss at Yankee Stadium, getting Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon swinging, and Mark Teixeira looking. Anderson was the first rookie to strike out the first three Yankees batters of a game in the Bronx since July 17, 1999, when Atlanta's Odalis Perez K'd Chuck Knoblauch, Jeter and Paul O'Neill. The rest of that game did not go well for Perez: he took the loss after allowing eight runs in four-and-two-thirds innings. (Thanks Elias)

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites like Seattle with a money line of -150 or more, averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game on the season, after a loss by four runs or more. This system is delivering winning 80.3 percent of the time with 57-14 record.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Baltimore Orioles are 0-11in road games vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season, losing by an average of 2.9 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal’s was 3-1 yesterday and had another Free Winner and he’s playing Boston on the run line against bumbling Baltimore.

New StatFox Football Annual on Sale – A must for Every Sports Bettor – If you wonder if this publication is worth the money, read this review. http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/ncaafootballbetting/fr/statfox09.htm

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Seeking Fabulous Friday

Hotter than a handful of jalapeños, we go back to back 3-0. We’ll go for a trio of treys to start the weekend. Our opening salvo is a Best System play that is 37-6. One pitcher and his team are a collective 8-49 surveying a few Top Trends. Our Free Plays are 12-1 since last week and Sal goes for six straight. Good Luck.

Thoughts on Today – How sweet was Mark Beuhrle’s perfecto? What an amazing catch to boot, given the circumstances. Went to Snakes and Pirates game last night (I know, what a sorry existence) to see Dan Haren pitch. He wasn’t close to having his best stuff, but at least got run support, just not enough to give him the win soon enough. Granted it was the Bucs pitchers, nonetheless, you can see why people shouldn’t completely give up on Arizona. There are talented players to build around for the future.

Did you realize Oakland's Brett Anderson hasn't allowed a run in three starts? He's at Yankee Stadium tonight.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites like Boston, with a money line of -125 to -175, who are pedestrian AL offensive team scoring 4.7 to 5.2 runs a game, against a decent starting pitcher with ERA of 4.20 or less, after a combined score of four runs or less. No its not as good as yesterday’s easy winner, but no whining about 86 percent system. (37-6)

Free Baseball Trend -2) It's just one play, but I found this fasinating. Zack Duke and Pittsburgh are 0-11 vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game in the second half of the season. In addition, they are 6-24 as a road underdog of +100 to +150 and 2-14 on Friday's.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal’s 2-0 performance yesterday has him at 22-5. He's on board with Atlanta to make the Brewers punch-drunk.

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MLB Series Wagering- Cardinals at Phillies

The last time the Philadelphia Phillies were playing this well, they were on their way to a World Series title. The Phillies are working on a third consecutive NL East division title, having won 15 of last 17 games. Philadelphia (54-39, +8.5 units) is the most offensive team in the National League scoring 5.4 runs per game. The have great diversity, being able to get runners on base and stealing bases to keep the opposing pitcher and defense on edge. If they trail in a contest, the batting order is loaded with big boppers who can help them come from behind.

St. Louis (52-46, -1.2 units) was able to help itself out of mini-slump like many have before them by beating Washington in a rain-shorten makeup game Thursday. The Cardinals are just 4-6 in last 10 games and have seen NL Central lead diminish to 1.5 games. They arrive in the City of Brotherly Love 5-12 vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game on the season.

J.A. Happ (7-0 2.68 ERA) will be the opening game starter for the Phillies, which could be his last based on circulating reports. Happ is the main piece Toronto would want in return for Roy Halladay trade and why not. Happ is 26-year old lefthander, has posted 5-0 record since going into the rotation in late May and over his last five outings, he is 3-0 with a 1.46 ERA, with 24 strikeouts and five walks in 37 innings. Philadelphia is -135 money line favorite at DiamondSportsbook.com, with total of U9. The Phils come into Friday’s tilt 42-20 having won four of their last five games.

St. Louis will attempt to build on Thursday’s victory and might start their newest member, Julio Lugo at shortstop. Lugo was acquired from Boston for outfielder Chris Duncan and is thought as offensive sparkplug to ignite Cards offense which is eighth in the NL in runs scored. Joel Pineiro (8-9, 3.09) has mediocre record, yet has pitched well as ERA indicates. Though not a strikeout pitcher, Pineiro has kept the ball down and has not been taken out of the yard like in the past. Nevertheless, he and Cardinals are 7-17 after a win.

Game 1 Edge: Philadelphia

Game 2 will be Fox late afternoon affair. Philadelphia started this series 38-20 playing against a team with a winning record in the second half the last two years and will entrust Rodrigo Lopez (2-0, 2.60) with another start. Lopez’s spot in the rotation is also in jeopardy with Pedro Martinez not far away from coming off the DL. The 33-year old Lopez has at least shown he should be part of the Phillies pitching staff and could spot start or be used in long relief for a team that has won 12 of last 14 home games.

Manager Tony LaRussa will turn to Kyle Lohse (4-6, 4.21) to cool down Philly. Lohse was roughed up on July 12th after coming off the DL by the Cubs, however turned in a more typical performance, pitching seven innings and allowing three runs against Houston his last time out. The situation definitely favors Charley Manuel’s squad since Lohse and the Cards are 1-10 when he starts on the road.

Game 2 Edge: St. Louis

The series finale has the Cardinals turning to Todd Wellemeyer (7-8, 5.68), which has not been a suitable option for awhile for a team in a pennant race. Wellemeyer has ERA over 6.5 in his last eight starts. He’s been hit hard, with right-hand batters hitting .301 and lefties crushing him with .340 average. Joe Blanton (6-4, 4.24) of Philadelphia has been just the opposite. After a slow beginning to the season, Blanton is 4-1 with 2.43 ERA since May 21, which covers 10 starts. Blanton has no magical reason why he’s pitched so well. “It's a little more quality pitches, maybe," Blanton said. "Maybe my changeup has come around lately. My sinker is down instead of flat and over the plate, and that always helps. Other than that, I'm just trying to pitch." This Sunday contest is afternoon game and the Phillies came in 18-10 in day ball, compared to the Redbirds 20-17 mark.

Game 3 Edge: Philadelphia

Since I’ve done so poorly picking these series, brought in a guest expert and they’ve been 2-0 this season. Red Wydley has this to say about who wins this series of division leaders. “Philadelphia wins handily, with a sweep possible. The Phillies are scoring 6.4 runs in last 17 games; the Cards have tallied more than five runs twice in last 10. Philadelphia is playing before packed houses every night and has caught fire at home winning 12 of 14. Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan should go into Hall of Fame the way he figures out how to maximize pitchers, but I’ll still take the Phillies relievers late in games. The ONLY way St. Louis wins this series is if Albert (Pujols) the Great hits .500 with four dingers. Philly, no problem.”

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: St. Louis +140, Philadelphia -180

3DW Pick: Philadelphia

2009 Record – 4-9

Thursday July 23 Betting Buzz

A clean sweep yesterday raised our record to 158-100-3, a super 61.2 percent. Have a ridiculous system today this 54-4, yea, that’s right. The Top Trend is a keeper at 12-0 and Sal has hopefully another Free Winner. Good Luck.

Thoughts on Today – There is a number of big favorites today. It is often tempting to parlay a group like this (I have in the past), however something tells me one is going down. I wish I could identify which one.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Pittsburgh with a money line of +175 to +250, with a team batting average .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with sizzling starting pitcher, who has WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. Good gravy, this system is 54-4, 93.1 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The New York Yankees are 12-0 in home games after allowing four runs or less four straight games over the last two seasons, winning by and average of 4.2 runs per game in next contest.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal was 2-2 yesterday, which included his winner here. That makes him 20-5 in baseball of late. I had conference call I had to take, so missed his White Sox play, but I checked and he says he likes the Phillies on the run line equally as well.

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3DW Baseball Betting Beat

Before the Los Angeles Dodgers are anointed a World Series slot out of the National League, a potential deadly flaw is emerging. There is still plenty of time for manager Joe Torre’s team to pull away from this nasty grouping, yet it certainly is water cooler fodder.

Coming into the season, the Dodgers pitching was the big question mark. No established ace was viewed, with Chad Billingsley (10-5, 3.72) expected to accept the role, before his 25th birthday. The rest of the rotation was up in the air and despite the team’s success, Los Angeles still has issues. Billingsley and Randy Wolf (5-4, 3.45) have 21 starts and young Clayton Kershaw (8-5, 2.95) has been given the ball 19 times. Beyond that, things become a little fuzzy, like many of the everyday inhabitants of Venice Beach.

Hiroki Kuroda has 10 starts wrapped around an injury. Eric Stults made nine before hitting the DL and Jeff Weaver and Eric Milton have five a piece. The Dodgers have even tried oft-injured Jason Schmidt recently, trying to extract innings for salary, since wins are 50-50 prop at best.

This leads to the Dodgers being 28th in baseball in quality starts (six or more innings, three or fewer earned runs) with 41. Only Washington and Baltimore have fewer quality starts. Since 2002, only three teams have finished with winning records if they finished in the bottom five of this category and none made the playoffs. While a winning record and postseason entry certainly appear in the Dodgers future, possibly playing at .642 clip might not. The Dodgers bullpen is second only to Oakland in innings used at 3.42 per game and they might have a few tired arms when August and September roll around. This could mean excellent underdog opportunities, especially if the offense hits a slump.

Bookmaker.com had projected Houston for 73.5 wins for the 2009 campaign. The Astros are well ahead of that pace with 49-46 (+4.5 units) record, yet don’t count that money as winnings just yet. Houston started the year 6-12, however recent 11-3 stretch have brought them back to respectability and into NL Central boat race. Houston has the oldest everyday starting lineup and starting pitching staff in the National League.

The ‘Stros numbers have this club opening up a can of commonplace. They are 10th in runs scored in the senior circuit, 12th in home runs, 14th in walks and 8th in on-base and slugging percentages. About the only aspect of Houston’s offense that stands out is they are second in baseball in fewest strikeouts.

Because owner Drayton McLane set limits on expenditures, while wanting to keep his aging assets, general manager Ed Wade made a trip to the junkyard to try to piece together starting pitching staff beyond Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriquez. Digging thru the scrapheap, he found 37-year Brian Moehler (7-5, 4.92 ERA), Russ Ortiz (2-3, 5.02), whose like a pesky rash that won’t go away and Mike Hampton (5-7, 4.63), who left New York Mets for Colorado in 2000, not because of money (wink-wink), but because he and his wife liked the school system in Denver area. (Oh that makes more sense now)

Houston will be depending on three golden oldies in the starting staff, a veteran lineup that has been through the baseball wars. They could be mentally tough and persevere or physically challenged by season’s end and fall apart. Let’s speculate the season total of 73.5 comes into play for the year is out.

All indications are Toronto will deal Roy Halladay. The Blue Jays front office better be prepared to make the right deal, or they will fall even further behind the three teams into front of them in the AL East, in the short and long term. For every Josh Beckett to Boston (along with Mike Lowell and Guillermo Mota) for essentially Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez trade, is Tim Hudson to Atlanta for three baseball cards with the pictures of Dan Meyer, Juan Cruz and Charles Thomas.

If or when Halladay is dealt, that makes 24-year old Ricky Romero (8-4, 3.45) the ace of the Blue Jays staff. Toronto will play 29 of remaining 66 games starting Friday against Boston, Tampa Bay and the Yankees, along with eight other matchups versus AL Division leaders Detroit and Los Angeles. This could be a birdbath full of opportunities to play against the Jays.

Wednesday Action and Crazy Stuff (Bonus Pic)

A little luck came our way as Sal’s Philly pick won in extra frames, providing 2-1 day. He’s quite confident his play today will be over much sooner. Another Prefect Trend cropped up, this time in the American League. Today’s Best System comes with complete game analysis and is 83.1 percent. Good Luck.

God Save Us – Seattle Seahawks wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh will be boycotting Madden 2010 in protest over his player rating. “Man, they don't get my rating right," Houshmandzadeh said while appearing on Colin Cowherd's ESPN Radio show Monday. "I just looked at the game and they have this wrong and that wrong. And I understand I averaged 10 yards a catch (in 2008), but it's the offense, man, not me." The game shows T.J. as sixth best receiver, which is in direct correlation to his stats. “I'm not playing Madden no more, until they get my rating right," Houshmandzadeh said. John Madden must be ready to cry.

Oh the Humanity! - (I’ve never included picture in this segment, but this is too good.) This has nothing to do with sports directly, another than the fact who she is married to (Hank Baskett), but Kendra Wilkinson won’t be watching John and Kate +8 when it returns to television in early August. Well if Kendra’s not watching, NOBODY is watching!

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Free Baseball System-1) See Cincinnati Reds article below. (Add in Reds are 0-15 as a 170+ underdog if it’s the last game of the series.)

Free Baseball Trend -2) The L.A. Angels are 9-0 after a win by six runs or more this season, winning by 2.9 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal was 5-1 Tuesday and got his best play winner in extra innings. He’s now 18 of last 21 MLB plays and has Florida handing out holy water to the Padres after beating them.

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Will Notre Dame Irish Eyes be Smiling this Autumn?

Being a Notre Dame football fan or supporter just isn’t as much fun as it used to be. Coming off regular seasons of 3-9 and 6-6 respectively, its put up or shut up time for the sometimes Fighting Irish. Will this finally be the year Charley Weis and quarterback Jimmy Clausen make Notre Dame football relevant again?

Weis might be on par with “the most interesting man in the world” who occasionally drinks Dos Equis beer, just in the gridiron sense. Weis came to South Bend as this larger than life character and sold everyone with his bravado and New Jersey tough-guy attitude. He was reported offensive genius behind the New England Patriots (until the next one came along) and was never shy about taking credit for Tom Brady’s growth and success.

Weis was 9-2 and 10-2 in his first two seasons, utilizing former coaches Bob Davie’s and Ty Willingham’s recruits as upperclassmen. In retrospect, Willingham’s firing makes more sense today, as the Irish have lacked talent from its junior and senior classes the previous two years.

Weis made a fundamental mistake to start, he should have preached patience like current president Barack Obama did on the campaign trail. That’s easier said then done with the Subway Alumni and big financial backers; however it would have gone a lot further than making promises he hasn’t kept.

Jimmy Clausen was to be the great savior, partnered with the perfect coach under the Golden Dome. This is a critical year for the junior Clausen also. His freshman season he was overwhelmed and played behind an offensive line that couldn’t keep an army of ants out of the backfield, let a lone a 300-pound defensive lineman. Clausen was much improved last season, but had several forgettable outings, like those against Boston College (0-17) and USC (3-38). Though Clausen had a spectacular game in the Hawaii Bowl, legends are not made around South Bend playing football in Hawaii on Christmas Eve.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Notre Dame at Ov8.5 win total, which doesn’t sound like BSC material, unless they change the schedule back to nine games.

Offensively, Notre Dame has a chance to really be productive. Clausen can wing the pigskin and reports have greater dedication to making better throws, plus positive signs of improved accuracy, especially on out-routes and balls thrown in seven to 15-yard range outside the tackles. Golden Tate and Michael Floyd should be heard of a great deal as receivers and sophomore Kyle Randolph has the look of the next Notre Dame tight end who will end up playing Sunday’s once his college career is complete. This group of pass catchers is arguably the best in the country.

Notre Dame could pass the 8.5 win total, if the power running game returns. The Irish have averaged sickly 110 and 75 yards per game the last two seasons. To be taken seriously, the four returning offensive linemen must play like men, with the Irish averaging at least 150 yards per game, with a stable of above average running backs.

What will determine Weis’ fate probably is something he’s not a big part of, the Notre Dame defense. Six starters return with a load of uncertainty. Three returning lettermen are in secondary, meaning only three starters in the front seven. The Fighting Irish should be better in blitzing defense in year two of defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta’s style. Though far more athletes are on the two-deep roster, many are sophomores and juniors without a great deal of experience. In many top-flight programs, that would not be an issue, however Notre Dame hasn’t been in the class of elite football programs for some time.

Jeff Makinen of StatFox isn’t convinced the Irish are on the rise until they prove it. “Notre Dame has proven to be overrated year after year. Weis is 29-21 and 23-26-1 against the spread, not coach of the year material. Clausen has gotten a large amount of publicity, with what kind of results on the field? Ron Powlus (former Irish QB) was supposed to be great; I’m seeing similarities between the two quarterbacks. I’d bet Under until you see a reason to change.”

The schedule appears to be conducive to success, at least right today. Nevada, Washington, Boston College, Navy and Connecticut should all be winnable encounters at Notre Dame Stadium. Michigan will be improved, nevertheless is about where the Irish was last season after 3-9 campaign and Purdue brings in a new coach, giving Weis two shots at road wins. Washington State is rebuilding off 2-11 season and will meet the Irish in San Antonio, as showcase for potential Texas recruits to come to northern Indiana to play football and earn an exceptional education.

If Notre Dame is truly a better team, they win those eight games, period.

Concerns start with Michigan State, who continues to get better under coach Mark Dantonio and they have won and covered six straight in South Bend. Do the Irish finally put up a fight?

November road games at Pittsburgh and Stanford could be BCS berth games. The Panthers defeated Clausen and company 36-33 in overtime last season and they will give Notre Dame full attention with a bye week to follow. Coach Weis’ crew could catch a break in season closer against Stanford, who will have played Oregon, USC and bitter rival Cal in the previous three weeks.

For many followers and detractors of the Blue and Gold, the benchmark matchup is USC. The last three games have been losses by total score of 120-27 and it could have been worse. The Trojans are on 7-0 and 6-1 ATS roll against Notre Dame, but look to be the most vulnerable in years with three starters back on defense and new assistant coaches taking over. This doesn’t mean USC is reverting back to pre-Pete Carroll days, just the slightest opportunity for Weis to regain much of his lost stature.

The season will be a success if the Irish earn BCS berth. One rung down on the acceptability scale would be 9-3, with USC upset. Anything less could mean sorry Charlie.

Best educated guess is the Irish get to nine wins and cover the Over.

Reds with backs to wall, up against Rugged System

The Cincinnati Reds are fading faster than a budget surplus at any city across the United States. The Reds have lost 17 of last 27 games to tumble into fifth place in the National League Central. In fact, with there 44-49 record (-2.3 units), Pittsburgh can actually see an opportunity of climbing out of the cellar. Just how valueless has Cincinnati become, only San Diego and Washington have a worse runs scored-runs allowed deficit (-61) in the senior circuit.

The Reds problems are scattered like tornado going thru a neighborhood. Offensively, Cincinnati has a “full house” of defective numbers. The Reds rank 14th in the National League in runs scored, batting average and on-base percentage. Those numbers are coupled with ranking 13th in total bases and slugging percentage. No wonder Cincy has lost six of last eight against teams with winning record.

The pitching numbers though better, are not exactly inspiring. Cincinnati ranks 9th in ERA at 4.27. They concede too many walks, ranked 11th and don’t earn many easy outs, positioned 12th in strikeouts. The Reds are tied for 12th in quality starts with 45 on the season. Fortunately they have been able to win when leading late with 82.1 percent save percentage.

Bronson Arroyo (10-8, 5.07, 1.454) is having another Six Flags seasons, going up and down. At the present time he’s in the zone, not allowing a run in last two starts over 16 innings and has posted 2.14 ERA in his last three trips to the mound. “I’m a roller coaster out there,” Arroyo told the Reds’ official Web site. “Right now, I’m going good. I’ll take every zero on the board I can get. The more you go out there like that, you feel confident. … You just try to ride the wave.” (Dude, were with you man)

Cincinnati is trying to not to be swept by the Dodgers (60-34, +19.6), who are 32-15 at home and 42-23 against right-hand starters.

Chad Billingsley (9-5, 3.76, 1.283) has been the Los Angeles ace, but not of late. Billingsley has been hit hard in his last two starts, allowing 11 runs in 6 2/3 innings. He’ll hope to find an early rhythm and save a bullpen that has done phenomenal work with 3.21 ERA and 1.238 WHIP.
This all leads to Bookmaker.com making L.A. a -200 money line favorite with a total Ov8 and the Reds being in unfit area.

Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more, who are NL team with a low on-base percentage of .350 or less, against a team with a solid bullpen (WHIP of 1.350 or less ), with a scalding starting pitcher sporting ERA less than 2.50 over his last three starts.

Over the last five seasons, this system is sizzling 54-11, 83.1 percent. The Reds are 8-21 as +150 to +200 underdogs and unimaginable 50-100 after a game where they stranded three or less runners on base. The Dodgers have won 52 of last 75 games at Dodger Stadium and are 8-1 in Billingsley’s last nine starts against teams with losing record.

If the money line makes one feel a bit uncomfortable backing the Dodgers, the average score differential of this superb system is 2.1 runs, adding the run line as potential wager. One more aspect to consider, the Reds have lost eight in a row at the home of the Dodgers.

Could Delaware Sports Betting Be A “First State” Failure?

Delaware has legalized sports betting. Governor Jack Martell signed legislation permitting it and The First State’s Supreme Court has determined that betting on individual games, as well as parlays, will be legal. Operations are scheduled to be in place by the start of the football season. With table games on the way this winter, Governor Martell estimates that $50 million in fresh revenues will hit the state’s coffers in 2010.

The wagering will take place through Delaware’s race tracks, which have become “racinos” in recent years with the addition of slot machines. The betting will take place on the premesis (no apparent provision for phone/online) and the racetrack will act as the bookmaker.

Obviously, the Delaware racinos welcome this opportunity to attract new bettors. In a press release, Delaware Park COO Bill Fasy said “We believe that the single game sports lottery, with a proper betting line, will provide an exciting entertainment option for our guests…”

(Presumably, the use of “a proper betting line” was a great relief to sports bettors who feared that an improper betting line would somehow find it’s way into use at Delaware Park.)

Is Delaware Ready? Do the racinos and politicians of Delaware know what they’re doing? They better. But both the regulators and those who will be taking the action are a long way from having things ready to go, and even knowing how things will work. Nobody in Delaware is prepared to answer questions on what kind of bet offerings will be available and what the limits will be. It is also unclear whether the state will collect tax money based on volume of wagering or profitability.

And chances are the folks in Delaware are overestimating the profitability of their sports betting operation. One unpleasant aspect for the house is the opportunity to lose. Bookmaking is a skill, and risk management is imperative to a proper sports betting operation. And bettors in target markets may already have more convenient options.

Let’s take a look at some things that could lead to Delaware sports betting being a disappointment.

Unattractive Propositions: Does a “single game sports lottery” include not only sides but totals, money lines, teasers, buying points, etc.? While there will be more money bet on sides than anything else, people are used to betting on the other offerings. Delaware better have a well-rounded product offering, because they have more competition, and potential competition, than they realize.

Potential Legal Competition: New Jersey governor John Corzine is suing the federal government to repeal a law that makes sports betting illegal for all but four grandfathered states (Nevada, Delaware, Oregon, and Montana) that have had sports betting in the past. Of those states only Nevada has had full scale betting. The others simply had parlay card offerings.

Opinions are mixed as to how serious New Jersey is about this, but they certainly want to protect Atlantic City wagering interests. And Pennsylvania is keeping an eye on things as well. Rather than a long-term exclusive, Delaware could have merely a head start on sports betting.

Quasi-Legal Competition: Bill Frist’s celebrated “slide it into national security bill” legislation that supposedly made offshore wagering illegal (it actually addressed banking, not the actual gambling) has had little effect on those who actually want to bet. Plenty of people are still betting at offshore sports books and poker rooms as some foreign entities and even banks have picked up the slack for American banks who can no longer transfer funds into the online operations.

Illegal Competition With A Technological Edge: Legislation targeting funding of offshore wagering has been a boon for illegal bookies, with many who left the business now back in the game. A majority of those bookies now offer online wagering for their customers via service bureaus located outside the US. Bets are made online or via phone, then the weekly settling up occurs, as it traditionally has, at the local tavern. Delaware’s sports betting relies substantially on Philadelphia and South Jersey players. Will players enjoying the convenience of playing online on credit feel compelled to make the trip to the actual sports books to put their cash on the counter?

Poor Management Leading to Losses: Both government and racino types are used to their betting having a guaranteed 17%-25% (depending on the wager) skimmed right off the top of each mutuel pool in horse racing, as well as a guaranteed cut for the house programmed into each slot machine. There is no such mathematical certainty built into sports betting.

While making bettors lay $11 for every $10 they are trying to win gives the house a good head start, winning as a bookmaker is no sure thing. Online and Nevada bookmakers have found that out the hard way. Consistent winners betting big money have shut down the occassional poorly managed offshore sports book and have led to tremendous consolidation among Nevada sports books. Knowing that sports books require active and intelligent management to win, casino companies take all their properties in Nevada and turn them into affiliates of a central book, cutting the overall costs of operation and putting their (theoretically) best talent in charge of the overall bookmaking. But even those steps have not led to a surge of profitability for Nevada bookmakers.

Smart bettors can overcome the 52.38% poinstpread winners needed to win money from the bookmaker. And there are smart bettors who make money on a regular basis by doing so. That’s part of the dance required to set the proper wagering limits. It’s tough to manage the risk of the smart bettors while welcoming the unsophisticated action of the weekend plunger.

The fact that Delaware sports books could have periods of time where they don’t only not win, but lose, is a part of sports betting history in the state. As Mike Wilkening of Pro Football Weekly dug up, the original parlay offerings in the state of Delaware were shut down suddenly in late 1976 after bettors took advantage of arbitrage opportunities created when the Delaware lines and those in Vegas differered significantly. It is likely that lines weren’t adjusted to account for what was late season injury/weather information. This is the kind of mistake that is unlikely to be made in the information age, but there are a lot of new ways for sharp bettors to beat up on sports book mistakes.

Will Puny Profits Lead to Patience or Panic? Bettors in Nevada actually beat the casinos with their basketball wagers in the month of April. This shows that while earnings are highly likely, there will be fallow periods for the sports books. Winning streaks against the spread by local favorites like the Eagles, Giants, and Penn State could lead to losses for periods of time. Are the racinos ready for that? And if the contribution to the state is tied to profitability, how will state officials react to less revenue than is projected?

Some Nevada casino operators consider sports betting a convenience to their guests, knowing that the sports book is likely to earn less per square foot than any other part of the gambling floor. On the other extreme is Bally’s in Las Vegas, whose palatial sports book sits empty, closed down for not earning enought money. Which view will prevail in Delaware, and will that view be the same for both the racinos and the state?

Success Is No Lock: The legalization of sports betting in Delaware is far from a slam dunk for the state. It will take solid bookmakers backed by patient management and understanding state government regulators to make it work. Count me among the sports bettors looking to put them to the test this fall.

This article was written of Kevin O'Neill of Strategic Sports Publishing and RealWorldSports.com. An expert handicapper and researcher, Kevin is the recipient of numerous handicapping honors, awards, and top 10 documented rankings.

Kevin’s third book, Real World Sports Betting: How Real People Make Real Money in the Global Sports Marketplace, is available at a discount from his office. Additional titles include Football Betting: Strategies for the Smart Player and Football Betting’s Cutting Edge: New Strategies for a New Era.

Look for more from Kevin later in August.

In search of Tantalizing Tuesday

Yesterday’s rainout took two plays off the board and we settled for 1-1. We kickoff Tuesday with an 84.6 percent baseball system and follow that up with hopefully another Free winner from my pal Sal. The Top Trend is an oddity, but has proven correct with 11-0 record. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – How's this for a pitcher getting taken off the hook: A's starter Gio Gonzalez gave up 11 runs in two and two-thirds innings Monday night but he did not get a loss as Oakland rallied from a ten-run deficit to beat the Twins, 14-13. Gonzalez is only the second starting pitcher in baseball's modern era (i.e., since 1900) to avoid a loss in a game in which he pitched fewer than three innings and gave up at least 11 runs. You don't have to search back very far to find the other instance: the Rangers' Scott Feldman was charged with 12 runs in two and two-thirds innings in Boston on August 12 last year but he was not involved in the decision as Texas lost to the Red Sox, 19-17. (Thanks Elias)

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON all favorites like Boston with a money line of -150 or more, who are hitting below .265 as a team, against a decent AL starting pitcher with 4.20 ERA or less, in the second half of the season. To be listed this big a favorite based on batting average suggests this team should win and 22-4 record the last three years backs it up.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Baltimore Orioles are 0-11against the money line in road games vs. poor defensive catchers - allowing 0.85 or more stolen bases a game this season. (Thanks, StatFox)

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal’s 2-0 record yesterday takes him to 13-2 and his Best Bet is Philadelphia to flourish against the Cubs.

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Do these Big Underdogs have a shot?

The Tuesday offerings on the Major League schedule have four games with four significant underdogs. The reasons are varied as to why, but what sports bettors want to know is if these pooches have to chance to pull the upset, leading to a significant payday. Here is a breakdown of each large underdog’s chances.

Baltimore at New York

The Orioles are trying to rebuild again, this time going thru the draft and using their young players. Unfortunately, this to will take time and in the mean while, Baltimore (41-51, -7 units) fans are once asked to be patient. The Orioles lost a close 2-1 game last night against the Yankees, however doing pretty well only counts if you are an AIG employee, which entitles you to bonus no matter what. Baltimore is 2-23 on the road versus AL East opponents and after surrendering only four runs in last two games, the O’s are 4-17 after allowing three runs or less in consecutive contests over the last two seasons. Bookmaker.com has Baltimore as +165 money line road underdogs with Rich Hill (3-2, 7.22 ERA) facing the Yankees. How little do the oddmakers think of Baltimore, New York is starting Sergio Mitre, who last started a big league game in Sept. 2007. The Orioles chances are not so hot with 11-39 record as dogs of +150 or higher.

Boston at Texas

The Red Sox (55-37, +6.9) have lost three in a row to fall into a first place tie with the Yankees and baseball bettors like their chances of ending streak even more than oddsmakers. Texas (50-41, +10.4), who defeated Boston 6-3 last evening, opened as +135 home underdogs were swiftly taken to +155, presumably with believers seeing a real pitching mismatch. Josh Beckett (11-3, 3.35) is BoSox hurler and he’s 9-1 with 2.14 ERA in last 13 outings. Beckett and the Red Sox are 21-4 as a road favorite of -125 or more since last season and they will face Rangers rookie Tommy Hunter (1-1, 2.35). The 23-year Hunter looks more like a standup outside linebacker than a pitcher, throws a low 90’s sinker, though like most young pitchers has control issues. Give Texas a punchers chance since they are 11-4 as home dogs and Boston has scored three runs against the last five rookie starting pitchers they have seen this season.

San Francisco at Atlanta

San Francisco (50-42, +9.1) has not been an offensive juggernaut to begin with; ranking 27th in runs scored at 4.1. Lately, the Giants have not done much to improve that position, scoring 14 total runs in last six contests, causing them to lose four times. Chances are it won’t get a whole easier, since they are +185 underdogs facing Atlanta’s Derek Lowe (8-7, 4.40). San Francisco faced Lowe plenty of times when he was with the Dodgers and they haven’t scored on him in last two starts covering 10 innings. The Giants will send rookie Ryan Sadowski (2-1, 1.00) up the hill and he’s shown good poise according to manager Bruce Boche. Trouble is San Fran is 8-19 as road underdog of +150 to +200. Atlanta (47-46, -6.3) has been hitting the ball, but is 8-19 after scoring seven runs or more two straight games. If the Giants can score early to build confidence and Sadowski finds early rhythm, San Francisco’s is bullpen capable of containing the Braves for upset.

Cincinnati at L.A. Dodgers

The Reds (44-48, -1.3) have lost nine of 13 to fall into fifth place in the NL Central. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has sprung a leak except for Bronson Arroyo, conceding 78 runs in last nine losses. They don’t figure to improve with Homer Bailey (1-1, 6.43) pitching against the Dodgers (59-34, +18.6). Bailey is a former first round draft choice of the Reds. The Reds are losing patience with the 23-year, who is known as much for his silly stubbornness as his ability. Bailey and the Reds are 1-12 in games he has started the last two years. Cincy is a +175 road dog and would appear in a horrible situation with the Dodgers 31-12 as +110 or higher home favorites.

Wagering on Quality Pitchers after poor outing

We have all been there as sports bettors, an attractive wager has been made on the team ace and he’s shelled and gone by the fourth inning, causing wagering accounts to decline. You understand as baseball bettor, the good pitchers are going to get beat, but when they are battered like the heavy bag at the gym, that is more gut-wrenching. After taking such a loss, is it a good or bad idea to follow up with that same pitcher in his next start?

The first order of business was to determine what makes a quality pitcher in 2009 and decided a minimum of 10 starts had to be made, with a personal winning percentage of 60 percent or higher. This pitcher had to be active or not injured, since it would do us no good to follow somebody who wasn’t pitching to begin with.

A bad outing was determined to be five or more earned runs in a single start. There were a couple of instances where particular hurlers fit the criteria in surrendering five or more runs with one or zero being earned. The argument becomes where to draw the line, thus settled on five earned and disregarded everything else.

Of course many of the names are quite familiar, like a who’s-who in baseball with Tim Lincecum, Josh Beckett, Roy Halladay, Johan Santana and Felix Hernandez to name a few all making the list. As always, confounding pitchers have big years out of nowhere. A Matt Palmer from the Angels, Tim Wakefield, Matt Cain, Scott Feldman and Kevin Slowey all pop up unexpectedly. Even discarded Jason Marquis, who is baseball’s first 12-game winner, finds a home in Colorado of all places.

In trying to learn how top notch hurlers would pitch after being cuffed around, the categories were broken down into favorites, underdogs and pick, with the end result of the game, not the pitchers record what we were seeking.

When a pitcher is tattooed (possibly poor word choice in today’s world) and favored in next game, his record is well above average, but not a great help to the sports bettors. The pitcher’s team is 33-21, 61.1 percent, not bad, however not the best bet one could find at +3.9 units of profit.

How would a capable thrower of the horsehide do when the game could go either way with a money line of -105? It turned out to be about as expected with 6-5 record and squeaking out a slight profit.

Where the real money can be found, is when this pummeled pitcher takes the mound as an underdog in next start. Most baseball players could tell you the spread of a football game or even basketball contest before they would know the money line on a game they were playing. In many cases, the pitcher is likely to know he has to bare-down more off a substandard outing and would have a sense what his team needs based on opposing team and opposition pitcher.

In this spot the underdog chucker is 19-9, 67.8 percent and baseball bettors pick up a sweet +16.35 units.

When you add all the numbers together, the total arrives at 58-35, +21 units. The 62.3 percent winning percentage is nothing special, which is not that far above the minimum requirement.

Nevertheless, place our roughed up delivery man in the miscast role of underdog and watch him deliver a profit worth crowing about.

Kick Start your Monday

Hit two of three on Sunday, taking our record to 152-98-3, 60.8 percent, since the first part of April. The Top Trend is again a reverse perfect play, taking place in the Midwest. Sal is hotter than Phoenix, AZ steering wheel that sits outside during the day uncovered and has Free Play. The Best System is found in run line action, with two plays that are 86 percent winners. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday: Joel Pineiro helped his own cause with a two-run double in the Cardinals 2-1 win over the Diamondbacks. Pineiro was the second pitcher in the last three seasons to win a game in which he drove in all of his team's runs, joining Milwaukee's Yovani Gallardo, who homered in a 1-0 victory over the Pirates earlier this season (April 29). Pineiro was the first St. Louis pitcher to turn the trick since Ray Sadecki in a 3-1 win over the Phillies in the first game of a twinbill on August 6, 1961. (Thanks Elias)

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all teams against a run line of (+1.5, -155) to (-1.5, +135), after shutting out a division rival, starting an over-rested pitcher who is working on seven or more days rest. I’ll be honest, I’m not a huge run line fan, however this system is 37-6, 86 percent, including 3-0 this season. This would mean to play against Philadelphia and the L.A. Angels on the run line.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Kansas City Royals are 0-12 after two straight games with one or less extra base hits over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal was 4-1 yesterday taking him to 11-2 run-out and he is backing Colorado to crush Arizona near the Rocky Mountains.

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Cubs and Phillies converge as hot teams

For many people, a trip to Washington, D.C. is a wonderful and historic adventure. The city has many great things to see and do and a short drive in several directions can further enhance the experience. For the Chicago Cubs, the four day excursion to out nation’s capitol turned out to be just the right kind of stimulus package needed to start the second half of the year.

The Cubs (47-43, -4.9 units) marched into woeful Washington and swept the Nationals in four games and have taken over second place in the NL Central, trailing St. Louis by two games, though are tied with them in the loss column. If Washington was the right team for manager Lou Pinella’s squad to play at the moment, Monday’s opponent, Philadelphia is just the exact opposite.

The Phillies (51-38, +6.5 units) are fresh off a weekend in Miami and swept their then nearest competitor in the NL East, Florida, building a 6.5 game lead in the division. The defending World Series champions are on eight-game winning streak and have been the conqueror in 12 of last 13 contests. The Phils have won every way imaginable; from a 2-0 shutout to a 22-1 blowout and Sunday’s victory improves them to incomparable 29-15 (+16.8 units) record on the road.

Philadelphia returns home to Citizens Bank Park, where they have turned around, after a half a season of dismal play. The Phils have won nine of last 10 at home to raise record to 22-23 (-10.3 units) and they are 21-8 vs. teams like Chicago whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game this year.

Rodrigo Lopez (1-0, 3.18 ERA) is the No.5 starter at present; however this job is in serious jeopardy with the signing of Pedro Martinez. Lopez will have likely a total of three starts before Martinez comes off the DL, meaning he will have to have a few inspired efforts. Lopez is pitching on 11 days rest and in his career, is 10-1 in home games when working on seven or more days rest. (Team's Record)

The Cubs will counter with their only All-Star, Ted Lilly (9-6, 3.18), who is pitching with two additional off days, since developing inflammation in his left knee. The Cubs lefthander has been extra sharp in last three outings with 2.11 ERA, striking out 20 and walking only three in 21 1/3 innings. Here is a little known fact on Lilly. In the last three years, including this season, only Roy Halladay (47) and Josh Beckett (44) have more wins than Lilly’s total of 41.

DiamondSportsbook.com has established Philadelphia as a -115 money line favorite, with a total of Un9.5. The Phillies are 51-23 off a win and 22-8 UNDER with an on-base percentage of .350 or better over their last 20 games. The Cubs have played like they are in hibernation as underdogs with 2-15 mark in 2009. Chicago is 30-12 UNDER vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season.

This is the ESPN Monday night telecast which will start at 7:05 Eastern, with Philly having taken four of the last six on home turf over the Cubs.

Enough Already!

I’ve had enough; I’m like Peter Finch in the classic 1976 movie “Network”. In that brilliant movie, Finch played the character Howard Beale and used an on-air rant that ended up coining the phrase “I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take it anymore.”

Some if not many of you either watched or saw the highlights of the British Open. 59-year old Tom Watson missed a putt on the 72nd hole that would have given him a sixth British Open title and a special place in history. The only other really comparable story I could think of was the Miracle on Ice, however that is a team sport. Watson’s triumph would have been onto itself.
Of course he missed the putt, badly, and never regained rhythm in playoff, as Stewart Cink won his first major going away.

What really angers me (I know it’s my blog, but won’t use preferred words because somebody more important than me might be paying attention) is the rest of the day, people all over the media used the word “choke” to describe Watson’s effort.

I know I ranted on this somewhere earlier this year, but I hate that word in relation to sports. It is thrown out as loosely as “superstar”. Watson for 71 holes was the best golfer at Turnberry, age aside. He admitted he hit the shot he wanted that went over the green, which left him in tenuous situation to save par and win The Open.

Somewhere in his subconscious, Watson realized his age, the moment at which he stood and hit a bad putt. If you’ve played golf, you know the feeling of walking after the ball the moment after you struck it. But CHOKE?

Players of all ages have stood over putts like that for decades, sometimes they go in, and sometimes they don’t. All of the people who criticized Watson for missing that putt should being ashamed at their lack of intelligence. Watson had the courage at his age to show up and believe he could still compete. As Paul Azinger of ABC said, “If we (speaking about himself and other professional golfers past their prime for the regular tour) had the same love of the game as Tom Watson, we would still be out there playing.”

I wonder how many of these people, who maybe interviewed various sports figures have asked silly questions or forgotten their questions and stumbled thru an interview. I wonder if they called themselves out for “choking”. Or possibly in an office setting among their peers for the radio or television station they work for, had their direct boss or general manager of the station say, “Yesterday was a great day, except for (fill in the blank) choking on the interview he did.”

To this day I distinctly remember being 21-years old playing on a highly competitive slow-pitch softball team. We were in a big tournament and we played outstanding and made it to the championship game in a double-elimination tourney. I normally batted either second or fifth, but because I was having a great tournament, I was moved to third slot in the batting order. As it turns out, our opponent played perfectly and me, I was 1 for 9 in the two games in which we lost.

In retrospect, driving home, I realized I was too pumped up; I swung too hard and too soon. Did I choke, I never thought so. In fact to this day, I remember playing in that tournament, which was the closest I ever came to winning the whole thing, playing that sport. I remember the excitement beforehand and during the game. It was the chase, not the outcome that left its strongest impression on me. If someone would have said I choked, I would have punched them in the nose.

I must say, I’m not a Watson fan, he’s been too outspoken about topics that he should keep to himself the last decade. However, at the moment who didn’t want Watson to make that putt outside of Cink, who I can assure you would have been proud to finish second to one of the greatest players in the game.

To all those that called out Watson, I can only hope you to are called out someday for your failings as a human being.

Seeking a Sensational Sunday

Ended up with .500 Saturday as my streak was shattered and a smokin’ Sal takes my place with Free Play. With yesterday’s Top Trend a Winner, uncovered another perfect one that is 10-0. The Best System returns at 33-8 in evening action. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday: Mark Buehrle got his 10th win of the season when he beat the Orioles on Saturday. It's Buehrle's ninth consecutive season with 10-or-more wins, tying the White Sox record set by Doc White from 1903 through 1911. Buehrle did not walk a batter in his win over the Orioles. It was Buehrle's seventh walkless start this year, tying him with Zack Greinke and Kevin Slowey for the American League high in that category. (Thanks Elias)

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher, with a good bullpen that converts on 75 percent or more of their save opportunities, against opponent with an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season. In this spot, play against Texas for a system that is 33-8, 80.5 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Chicago Cubs are 10-0 in road games vs. a terrible bullpen whose ERA is 5.50 or worse over the last three seasons, winning by an average of 2.5 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) My luck ran out, but Sal’s hasn’t. He 7-1 since baseball returned and likes the Phils to drown the Fish.

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