Rangers trying to buck the system in Bronx

There had been a great deal of speculation the Texas Rangers were perfectly positioned to steal a game from the New York Yankees in the opener on forums and chat sites catering to sports wagering talk on Tuesday. The belief was from underdog and value players, the Yankees would be flat after a big series win in Boston and Joba Chamberlain had not been very effective of late, making Texas a delicious choice at +185 on the money line.

New York (78-47, +5.6 units) looked anything but flat taking a 4-0 lead in the bottom of the first inning. This Texas (70-54, +19.4 units) team is a little different from the past, not wilting under the heat and humidity the Lone Star State brings this time of year and they kept battling, earning a 10-5 lead and almost gave it away, with New York scoring four runs in the bottom of the ninth, to come up just short at 10-9.

High scoring games are nothing new at the new Yankees Stadium, where the average score totals 10.3 runs per game. The Rangers will attempt to win the series tonight on ESPN2 at 7:05 Eastern and possibly further close the gap in the AL West with Los Angeles with another victory.
Texas will have New York’s full attention, as the Yankees lost for just the 19th time in 60 games (best in baseball) in the Bronx this season. The Rangers will be in virtually the same exact position as last night, being +185 underdogs according to DiamondSportsbook.com.

Texas is feeling spry after defeating the Yanks and will send 22-year-old left-hander Derek Holland (7-7, 4.72 ERA) to the mound. The rookie will face an intimidating New York lineup that punishes left-hand pitchers, sporting a 28-14 record and he’s been rocked for eight runs in 6 1/3 innings against the Bronx Bombers this season. Holland has found a groove in last three starts, with 3-0 record and 1.29 ERA; expect the Yankees to test him.

Andy Pettitte (10-6, 4.25) will take the ball for Joe Girardi’s club, seeking a third straight win. Pettitte and his teammates will go after a fifth consecutive triumph when he’s been the starter. Though the veteran left-hander did not have his best stuff last Friday against Boston in wild 20-11 win (seven runs allowed in five innings), prior to that he had 2.61 ERA in last five starts.
By all appearances Texas should have another shot as big underdog, until this sobering system is unveiled.

Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 after allowing nine runs or more against opponent after a combined score of 15 runs or more.

This system is a proven winner and consistent. Since 1997, the record is 184-48, 79.3 percent and over the last five years has been equally as steady with 64-17 (79 percent) mark. What makes this system work is teams involved in high scoring affairs and positioned as large underdogs typically don’t respond well in next contest and this is acknowledged with teams like Texas losing by 2.5 runs per game.

Can Texas win tonight, sure, is it a good idea to place a wager on them, after reading to this point, you decide.

Tuesday Plays and Standings Update

Yesterday’s 3-0 record was sweeeet, raising record to 209-141-3, 59.7 percent since April 10. Today we come back with a system that is 83.6 percent and sparkling this season also. The Top Trend follows the exploits of Padres and though I personally haven’t agreed with the LLC plays, who cares, they’ve won three in a row and have another today. Good Luck

What I learned today – Ryan Spilborghs' grand slam in the bottom of the 14th inning gave the Rockies a 6-4 win against the Giants. Since 1900, only one player hit a walk-off grand slam in a later inning. On July 28, 1951 Clyde Vollmer of the Red Sox hit a grand slam in the bottom of the 16th inning to beat the Indians at Fenway Park. The last walk-off slam in the 14th inning was hit by Jason Giambi, on May 17, 2002 at Yankee Stadium against the Twins. (Thanks, Elias)

Haven’t mentions this in awhile, however here is where we stand at monitored sites.

The Sports Eye #1 MLB
Free Sports Monitor #2 MLB
Cappers Watchdog #7 MLB

Cappers Watchdog #4 NFLX

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) This is one system we’ve used several times before and why not. PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like the White Sox with a money line of +175 to +250 after allowing 10 runs or more. Over the last five years the record is 102-20, including 12-2 this season.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The San Diego Friars are 3-20 vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better this season, losing by gargantuan three runs per game.

Free Baseball Pick -3) The Left Coast Connection has clicked off three straight winners and is 6-1 behind Toronto as home underdog,

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StatFox Top Tips – The Platinum Sheet – Yours truly a writer.

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The First State Parlay: A Solution For Delaware’s Sports Betting Quandry

A federal appeals court shocked everyone yesterday by yanking the rug out from under Delaware’s plan for single game sports betting. The three-judge panel decided that Delaware (state motto: Our Lawyers Suck) could only offer parlay bets, and not single game wagers as planned. They also have limited the wagering to the NFL. In their infinite wisdom, the jurists interpreted the 1992 federal law banning sports betting except in grandfathered states Nevada, Delaware, Montana, and Oregon as limiting Delaware to the wagering options they offered before 1992. Delaware offered a few months of NFL parlay card betting in 1976.

The governor and state officials are understandably upset, as are officials at the three Delaware racetracks that are in the midst of multi-million dollar renovations to turn portions of their facilities into Vegas-style sports books.

Delaware politicians who were counting on a revenue boost were stunned by the unexpectedly far-reaching decision. Fortunately for these officials, I have their solution, it’s called “The First State Parlay.”

Delaware is permitted to offer parlay wagers on NFL football, but not single game wagering. So why not create a parlay that comes as close to possible as mimicking single game wagering. Here’s how it works.

The “First State Parlay” requires the bettor to pick one team at the prevailing pointspread. That team must win to complete the first leg of the parlay. The bettor then picks a second game where they are allowed to move the line 47 points. The bettor must lay 11 to 10 odds on his parlay bet. 11-10 is the standard for single-game wagers in the sports betting industry.

Let’s show an example of how the “First State Parlay” would work. In the first week of NFL action, let’s say Vinnie Cheesesteak from Philadelphia wants to drive down to Delaware Park to bet $110 to win $100 on his beloved Eagles at +2 over the Panthers. He must combine the Eagles at +2 with a second game that he gets to move 47 points, so he takes the Bears, currently a 3-point dog, at +50 over the Packers.

If the Eagles cover +2, and the Bears can stay within 50 points of the Packers, Vinnie Cheesesteak wins $100. If the Eagles don’t cover the spread he loses $110. If either game lands right on the number it’s a push, and his stake is refunded, no matter the result of the other game.

While this comes very close to replicating single game wagering, by stipulating that the second leg of the parlay can be moved by 47-points, and no more, Delaware can claim that there is still an element of chance. In the playoffs following the 1999 season the Jacksonville Jaguars hosted the Miami Dolphins in the what proved to be the last NFL game for both QB Dan Marino and coach Jimmy Johnson. If you took the Dolphins from +7.5 and moved them 47 points to +54.5, you would have lost your bet by a half-point when the Dolphins were filleted by the Jags 52-7.

Is the “First State Parlay” an obvious workaround to try to turn single game betting into parlay betting? Yes. But it seems to fit into the new parameters set by the court. Delaware should hire some new lawyers and have them consider it as a potential solution.

By Kevin O'Neill of Real World Sports.

Study on College Football Talent

In order for the very best teams to play in the biggest bowls their conferences have tie-ins to; the first thing they have to do is win their conference championship. The BCS has its teams they select first from its conference champions and Conference USA, the MAC, the Mountain West and Sun Belt winners all have bowl games lined up for them to play for winning the league title.

Coaching is important, however recruiting in what makes the very best teams. Having the best talent year after year will keep most any school at or near the top of the conference standings. I devised a way several years ago that breaks down whom the most talented players are by position with a weighted system that creates a point value, within each conference. Like all-preseason rankings, this doesn’t assure who will finish where, since players we have never heard of will emerge (does Knowshon Moreno ring a bell) and alter the dynamics of a team. Nevertheless, this is trustworthy guide leading into the season that could open up a few eyes and either make or save the sports bettor money in September and later. Key point, this does not take into consideration how a schedule will affect the outcome, just the talent aspect.


ACC -Atlantic
1) Clemson -16.5
2) N.C. State -16
3) Boston College -14.5
4) Florida State -12.5
5) Maryland - 6.5
6) Wake Forest -6

ACC – Coastal
1) Virginia Tech -23
2) Georgia Tech -20
3) North Carolina – 13.5
4) Duke -7
5) Miami- 6.5
6) Duke -6

Analysis- What was absolutely shocking about doing this study was Florida State is picked to win the ACC Atlantic by most observers, yet ranks sixth in top level talent. That is not to say the Seminoles lack ability, rather, they don’t appear to have a number of difference-makers like Virginia Tech for example. Another aspect that caught me off-guard was how devoid of superior talent the Miami Hurricanes really are. Again, similar to their rival Florida State, the “U” could emerge as a better than expected TEAM overall, but they don’t start the season blessed with tremendous ability. Clemson is under the radar a bit, which might be to their liking, since their offensive and defensive lines will be among the best in the ACC. Nine of the 12 ACC teams have winning overall records as underdogs the last four years. (Check with Sportsbook.com for the latest odds)

Big East
1) Pittsburgh -26.5
2) West Virginia -22.5
3) South Florida -20.5
4) Rutgers -19.5
5) Connecticut -17.5
6) Cincinnati -15
7) Louisville -13
8) Syracuse -10.5

Analysis- Coach Dave Wannstedt has 15 returning Pitt starters in what should be a highly competitive Big East race. Pittsburgh and Rutgers should have the best offensive lines and the Panthers will be rather stout up front on defense. West Virginia is officially in transition on offense with Pat White gone at quarterback and new passing offense will reflect changes in the coming years. South Florida and Rutgers should very competitive, with the Bulls a year smarter having learned what it means to be chased rather than a team on the rise. If USF’s defensive front plays to capabilities, watch out. Cincinnati will score points, however they have 10 new defensive starters. I know Greg Paulus would have been big time recruit if he had chosen football over playing basketball at Duke, but what does it say about how bad the Syracuse football program is when a player walks in to play the most important position on the field, having not played in four years? A ploy to sell tickets, we’ll find out.

Mountain West

1) BYU -25
2) TCU -24
3) Utah -21.5
4) Air Force -18.5
5) Colorado State -15.5
6) UNLV -14
7) Wyoming -10.5
8) New Mexico -6
9) San Diego State -3.5

Analysis – This should be another exciting season in the Mountain West, with three teams capable of winning title. BYU has the slight edge over TCU and Max Hall is poised for monster senior campaign. Utah will be in the mix after perfect season, but lost a lot of talent from last season. It’s a rare occurrence when a military school has a number of players back, but this Air Force club might have a couple of upsets they can pull off. The rest of the MWC is several rungs below, meaning they are unlikely to cover many road spreads and could cover home games, especially if top contenders have look-ahead game.

Big 12 North
1) Missouri -12
2) Kansas -10.5
3) Nebraska -8.5
4) Kansas State 4.5
5) Iowa State -2
6) Colorado -1.5

Big 12 South
1) Oklahoma -41.5
2) Texas -24.5
3) Oklahoma State 18.5
4) Texas Tech -13.5
5) Baylor -12
6) Texas A&M -0

Analysis – What jumps off the page about the Big 12 is the disparity in the two divisions. Missouri is rated talent-wise on par with Baylor, who would quality as “cash for clunkers” in the Big 12 South. Texas brings back 16 starters including quarterback Colt McCoy, nevertheless, Oklahoma will score points with QB Sam Bradford and could be a great defensive team, while the Longhorns lost numbers in the defensive line. Oklahoma State should have similar season to a year ago, with all its offense. The Big 12 North looks like winner by default and Texas A&M is the first team in four years I’ve had that doesn’t rate a player with any All-Big 12 potential. Oddmakers will have their hands full trying to find right numbers when North meets South.

WAC
1) Boise State -31.5
2) Nevada -28.5
3) Louisiana Tech-24
4) Fresno State -18.5
5) San Jose State -16.5
6) Hawaii -9.5
7) Idaho -7.5
8) New Mexico State -7.5
9) Utah State -6

Analysis- The numbers are a bit of fooler, since Boise State has easily more overall talent than any other team in the WAC, just not all-league material everywhere. That is actually good for the WAC and Nevada is the one team that could upset the Broncos, with QB Colin Kaepernick leading explosive offense behind a very good offensive line and arguably the best D-line in the conference. Louisiana Tech is going the right direct under coach Derek Dooley, having moved from seventh to third in talent outlook in three years. These Bulldogs have definite Play On potential in 2009. Maybe Fresno State should become independent, since coach Pat Hill seems to focus on those contests more anyway, for a program that looks to have stalled and is stellar Play Against conference club.

Conference USA East Division
1) East Carolina -26.5
2) Southern Miss -23.5
3) Marshall -18
4) Central Florida -9.5
5) Memphis -8.5
6) UAB -8

Conference USA West Division
1) Houston -17
2) Tulsa -13
3) UTEP -6.5
4) SMU -5
5) Tulane -4.5
6) Rice -3.5

Analysis- East Carolina and Southern Miss are the class of C-USA and should have intriguing battle. Coach Mark Snyder is in hot water at Marshall with 16-31 (16-25-2 ATS) record and has the talent to have respectable season that could save his job. All the better teams in the West Division have offensive talent and are very thin on defense to stop anybody. After 7-1 record in conference and bowl experience, Rice returns to being Rice with exceptional skill players graduated. Still a conference to watch totals on because of lack of defense.

Big Ten
1) Penn State -29
2) Iowa -18
3) Wisconsin -15
4) Illinois -14.5
5) Ohio State -14
6) Michigan State -13.5
7) Michigan -13
8) Northwestern -9
9) Minnesota -8
10) Indiana -4
11) Purdue -3.5

Analysis- I spent more time on this conference than any other. Not because I lived most of my life in Big Ten country, but because I could not believe Ohio State graded out so low. The Buckeyes won’t finish this far down in the standings, as talented players coach Jim Tressel recruited will step forward, possibly similar to the 2007 team that played LSU in the BCS title tilt. However, I’m not sure until the Buckeyes play, which those players will be. Iowa and Illinois both could be surprise teams if the Hawkeyes offense improves and the Fighting Illini come together beyond the defensive line. Wisconsin has players concentrated in certain areas and Michigan State is improving, still lacking qualities to really make a major move. Penn State, grading out this high made me think the Big Ten might be really weak this season, since the Nittany Lions suffered heavy losses, but have QB Daryll Clark and RB Evan Royster in the fold. If instincts are correct, lots of dogs will cover.

Pac-10
1) USC -31
2) California -22
3) UCLA -17
4) Oregon State -16
5) Oregon -15
6) Arizona State -15
7) Arizona -11.5
8) Stanford -9
9) Washington -7
10) Washington State -1

Analysis – Listen closely, it’s the familiar beat of top level recruits beating the doors down to play at USC for coach Pete Carroll. While some talk that California might have closed the gap this season, the Trojans most difficult opponent the last several seasons has been complacency when you least expect it, which suggests the Bears don’t fit the mold. UCLA has definite Play On potential after losing 44-man starts last season and its quarterback play couldn’t have been worse. Watch the Bruins in 2009. This is league devoid of renowned quarterback play it appears. Most teams’ fortunes (and sports bettors) will rise and fall with how well their signal callers do in making plays.

SEC East
1) Florida -35
2) Georgia -16
3) Tennessee -11
4) Kentucky -8
5) South Carolina -3.5
6) Vanderbilt-2

SEC West
1) Alabama -22
2) LSU -16.5
3) Mississippi -13
4) Arkansas -7.5
5) Auburn -6
6) Mississippi State -2

Analysis – There is an 800-pound gorilla in the SEC and everyone is trying to figure how to knock it off. Only Florida seems capable of beating Florida, in what could be somewhat of a down year for the SEC, maybe unfairly compared to the Gators squad. Georgia and Tennessee look eons away from matching up. This might be the end of the line for Steve Spurrier in Columbia, not being able to work recruiting magic to bring in high-caliber players to compete, especially on offense. Ole Miss is mildly popular pick to win the SEC West, but both Alabama and LSU have more talented players, with the Rebels better at skill positions. It’s shocking to see how far Auburn has slipped this fast from ability perspective. The SEC has several one-sided crazy against the spread rivalries that make little sense and unless you play and win.

MAC-East
1) Buffalo -20.5
2) Temple -12
3) Akron -10
4) Ohio U -7.5
5) Bowling Green -7
6) Kent State -7
7) Miami-O -0.5

MAC –West
1) Central Michigan -25
2) Western Michigan -17
3) Ball State -15
4) Northern Illinois -12
5) Toledo -6.5
6) Eastern Michigan -4.5

Analysis- Buffalo caught more than their fair share of breaks in winning the MAC in 2008. Whether they will have anywhere close to the same success is debatable, yet no arguing head coach Turner Gill has done a fine job of adding players that can compete at this level. The rest of the MAC East teams are fairly close outside of Miami-O and a startling winner could come forward, just like Buffalo did. Central and Western Michigan are head and shoulders above the MAC West pack with good talent around superior quarterbacks Dan LeFevour and Tim Hiller respectively. The MAC’s better teams usually cover spreads and the weaker teams fail to do so.

Sun Belt
1) Troy -33
2) Arkansas State -21
3) Florida Atlantic -20
4) UL-Monroe -20
5) Louisiana – Lafayette -17
6) Florida International -16.5
7) Middle Tenn. State -13
8) North Texas -6
9) Western Kentucky -1

Analysis- What separates Troy from the competition is incoming quality players ready to move into starting spots after seeing action the previous year. These replacements help keep the Trojans near the top of the Sun Belt standings under coach Larry Blakeney. From talent standpoint, the standings in the SBC could go many ways in slots 2-7, with these teams fairly balanced. What Western Kentucky brings to the party will be worth watching in their first season of conference play. Road teams have often been the best wager in conference action.

NL West Heats Up

Exactly one month ago, the Los Angeles Dodgers were as close to a lock to win the division as there was in baseball. Manager Joe Torre’s club led the National League West by nine games and was running smoother than a brand new Nissan 370Z on the Pacific Coast Highway. However, baseball’s fortunes can shift gears quickly and over a 162-game schedule, very few teams in the history of the game have managed to avoid rough patches and run wide open all season.

Los Angeles (74-51, +12.4 units) has seen their lead in the division diminish to three games for two reasons, one of their own doing. The Dodgers are 12-16 since July 25, and have a faulty offense to blame. L.A. has scored three or less runs in 13 of its recent 16 losses and it doesn’t seem to be a coincidence that without Juan Pierre in the lineup on a regular basis, with Manny Ramirez back patrolling leftfield, there are fewer scoring chances with runners in scoring position. Though the Dodgers won three of four over the Chicago Cubs, they managed to score five total runs in last three contests and are 27-45 after scoring two runs or less three straight games.

The Colorado Rockies (71-54, +14 units) have been the other reason for the club from La-La Land hasn’t been able to get away with playing undistinguished baseball. Since former Dodger manager Jim Tracy took over, Colorado is 53-26, proving not to be the mercurial club like in the past. The Rockies have won 18 of last 28 to close the gap to present number and came from behind three times against San Francisco, their nearest wild card competitor, to win the series 3-1, which included last night’s improbable walk off grand slam by Ryan Spilbroghs in the bottom of the 14th. Colorado comes into this series 15-4 after consecutive wins by two runs or less.

The Rockies will be tested mentally, since they have lost 10 of 12 to Los Angeles, including five of six at Coors Field. Jason Hammel (8-7, 4.54 ERA) will be the game one hurler for the Rocks and they have won seven of his last 10 starts. Los Angeles will counter with Clayton Kershaw (8-7, 2.96) who’s needed a directional-finder this month. The young lefty had been pitching brilliantly this season, however since August; he’s walked 15 batters in 19 innings. The increased wildness and the lack of run support (2.3 RPG) have seen the Dodgers lose Kershaw’s last six starts, after winning the previous seven.

This NL West affair opened with the Dodgers as -125 money line favorites at Bookmaker.com and the number has moved against L.A. to -110, with total Un9.5. Colorado is on 26-10 roll at home and has punished lefties, winning 11 of last 12 at Coors. The Rockies are 9-1-1 OVER against teams with a winning record.

The Dodgers have experience in handling Colorado and are 14-5 on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season and is 15-5 UNDER when the money line is -100 to -150, with Kershaw pitching.

This anticipated conflict and series will be available in local markets and on MLB.TV starting at 8:40 Eastern.

Make a mark on a Monday

Slipped a bit on Sunday with 1-2 day, as Mark Buehrle continues to struggle since throwing “Perfecto”. The LCC consensus has left a couple of winners and goes for third straight with Free Play. The Top Trend explains part of Washington’s woes (not the White House). Best System involves the best game on the NL board today and is 36-9. Good Luck

What I thought today – With the Yankees winning the series in Boston, they have shown their current superiority. New York is on pace to win about 101 games, which would mean the Red Sox would have to go 32-7 to finish the season to surpass them, very unlikely. Instead, Boston should work on holding off Texas for wild card, get everybody healthy and hopefully be playing best baseball come October and see if they can make another strong run.

Almost forgot to mention about Phillies triple play yesterday. Though triple plays don't happen often, whenever they do, I'm always reminded of Yogi Berraism which states, "Triple plays can really take out of an inning."

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150, who are poor power hitting team like San Francisco (<=0.9 HR's/game), against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less home runs a start, with a NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 on the season. Since 2005, this system checks in a 36-9, 80 percent. Free Baseball Trend -2) The Washington Nat it nals are 5-28 vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game on the season, losing by 1.7 RPG.

Free Baseball Pick -3) The Left Coast Connection has been a wise consensus the last couple of days and is 7-0 on the Seattle Mariners tonight.

New Guaranteed NFL Picks – They are cleaning up check out our packages.

StatFox Top Tips – The Platinum Sheet – Yours truly a writer.

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Monday Night Football Preview

As far as NFL preseason games go, this Monday night contest has a number of story lines to follow. The New York Jets have a new head coach in Rex Ryan and it is taking all of one game to return to Baltimore, where he spent the last 10 years, the last four as defensive coordinator. While Ryan will acquaint himself with friends on the Ravens sidelines and others in the stands, he will have to soon make his first really challenging decision of who will the Flyboys starting quarterback.

In many ways it’s a no-lose decision, since top draft choice Mark Sanchez will be under center as the starting quarterback in New York eventually. Sanchez is battling with holdover Kellen Clemens and the former USC Trojan will take the field first when the Jets have the ball on Monday.

New York lost at home to St. Louis 23-20 as four-point favorites and arrives in Baltimore in a favorable spot. The Jets are three-point underdogs at DiamondSportsbook.com and underdogs (or Pick) off an upset loss as a favorite are 29-9 ATS this week of the preseason.

Sanchez, Clemens and Erik Anige will go against what has been one the best defenses of this decade in the Ravens. Linebacker Ray Lewis may no longer have the speed and quickness of a few seasons ago, yet he spearheads a fearsome bunch that enjoys hitting whatever moves in opposing uniforms. The defense befuddled Washington last week, holding them to 196 total points and kept them from registering any points.

Offensively, second year signal caller Joe Flacco was efficient 9-of-15 for 103 yards in two series and will see greater action this week. Troy Smith will follow Flacco after throwing for 200 yards last week, part of the 500 yards the Ravens totaled. With John Beck out with shoulder injury, Baltimore signed Cleo Lemon this week, since he is familiar with offensive coordinator Cam Cameron's system, having played in Miami when Cameron was there. With last week’s shutout win, Baltimore is 4-5 ATS at home the last five years in the preseason.

Oddsmakers have set the total at 32.5 and which would appear to favor New York who is 11-1 ATS in a road game where the total is 35 or less. The low figure could also attract the attention of totals players, with the Ravens 22-10 UNDER as a favorite and 11-2 UNDER as a home favorite of three points or less.

Kickoff is set for 8 Eastern on ESPN with New York 6-2 SU and ATS in its last eight preseason games as the visitor.

Two Monday Tilts Highlight MLB Schedule

With only nine wagering opportunities on the baseball beat this Monday, some games take on greater importance than others. Two games in particular standout for today, Detroit at Los Angeles Angels and the final game between San Francisco and Colorado. Here is a betting outlook at each conflict.

Tigers at Angels

With football programming taking over the mother-ship on Monday’s, baseball gets moved to the side slightly, over to ESPN2 (remember when they tried to make it sound cool by calling it “The Deuce”). For real baseball and sports fans, that should not detract from the fact that two American League division leaders matchup, with a superb pitching matchup.

Detroit (65-58, -1.2 units) is three games clear in the loss column of Chicago, thanks to its efforts at home, not on the road. The Tigers have had nothing to roar about with 25-38 road record, scoring just four runs per game, which is 25th in baseball. Detroit just lost series to appalling Oakland club and will take on team from Anaheim that loves to scoot. The Tigers are 3-14 in road games vs. good base-running teams averaging 0.85 or more stolen bases a game over the last three seasons.

Justin Verlander (13-7, 3.29 ERA) will be entrusted with limiting the Angels, having 2.70 ERA in his last eight starts and has pitched at least eight innings in four of his last six outings. The only knock on Verlander is 0-2 record with a 4.55 ERA in five starts (Tigers 1-4) against the Angels.

The Halos (74-48, +24.1 units) are six games ahead of Texas in the loss column in the AL West and will send their best pitcher to the mound in Jered Weaver (13-4, 3.89). Weaver’s been a little spotty in the second half of the season, but is off complete game road shutout at Cleveland. Weaver is 5-1 in his last nine starts, with an ERA of 5.43, however that has gone somewhat unnoticed with the Angels batters scoring 8.2 runs in that stretch. Weaver is 8-1 at the Big A this season (Halos 11-2) and his ERA is more than a full run lower at home.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Angels as -125 money line favorites with total Un8.5, in part because how effective they have been at home against Detroit. L.A. has won eight of 10 and 27 of last 35 at home against the Tigers and are 15-5 having lost three of their last four games this season. The Angels are 10-2 OVER after seven or more consecutive road games and Verlander and the Tigers are 10-1 OVER playing on Monday’s.

The opening pitch is set for 7:05 Pacific with Detroit 17-36 in road games when playing against a team with a winning record.

San Francisco at Colorado

The Rockies (70-54, +13 units) turned a deficit into an advantage with one swing of the bat yesterday and is positioned to win three of four against their closest wild card competitor. Colorado’s Seth Smith homered a hanging changeup from Tim Lincecum, giving the Rockies the lead and they went on to win 4-2. Colorado is now three games ahead of San Francisco (67-57, +10.1 units) and would like to build on that lead before traveling to the Bay Area next week to play three at San Fran.

Colorado is 20-9 after a win by two runs or less and will send Jason Marquis (14-8, 3.58) to the mound trying to become the National League’s first 15-game winner. The Rocks will face a rejuvenated Barry Zito (8-11, 4.26), who has allowed three or less runs in his last seven starts. The left-hander has been victimized by offense that has produced a league-low 2.9 runs for a regular starting pitcher.

The Rockies are -165 money line favorites with total Un9.5. Colorado is 16-4 (+14.6 Units) against the ML playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season and 21-12 OVER as a home favorite of -125 to -175. San Francisco is looking for the split and is 12-6 vs. a starting pitcher who throws more than 6.5 innings per start and Zito and the Giants are 13-3 UNDER in August games since 2007.

This NL West confrontation is 5:40 Pacific start.

In Search of Perfect Sunday

Another rock solid 2-1 Saturday, leads us into Sunday. The Best System is a little frightful backing a bad team, however 80 percent odds in your favor is exceptional. The LCC delivered yesterday and have very strong opinion on tonight’s Yankees-Red Sox matchup. The Top Trend is nearly solid gold with this pitcher on the mound. Good Luck

What I learned yesterday – Michael Cuddyer hit his 20th home run of the year to help lead the Twins to an 8-7 victory over the Royals Saturday night, becoming the fourth Twins' player to hit 20 homers this season (Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer and Jason Kubel are the others). This marks the first time in 22 years that the Twins have had at least four players hit 20 home runs in the same season. In 1987, a year in which the Twins won the World Series, Tom Brunansky, Gary Gaetti, Kent Hrbek and Kirby Puckett all went deep at least 20 times.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like Cincinnati with a money line of +100 to +150 with a frosty starting pitcher- ERA of 6.50 or higher over his last 10 starts, with an on-base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games. In the last five years this system is delightful 40-10.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Mark Buehrle and the White Sox are 22-2 against the money line in home games vs. teams outscored by 0.5 or more runs a game in the second half of the season, in his career.

Free Baseball Pick -3) The Left Coast Connection has a somewhat surprising 8-0 consensus (in my opinion) playing the New York Yankees tonight.

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Wagering on the NFL is about uncovering edges

For sports bettors, there is no greater challenge than trying to beat the oddsmakers in wagering on professional football. This on going battle is reminiscent of golf, though you might have great days and sometimes outstanding years, you never really beat the game, it’s more of a survival. The sharpest minds are always on the prowl seeking ways to profit against the untamed beast, knowing full well what works today could be as meaningless as Week 1 stats at the end of the season.

This process is like being an archeologist, you keep digging, and often, no matter how pointless it seems, you’ll come across something when you least expect it, something that pays dividends immediately and down the road.

I ended up spending a great deal of time searching for different winning information and like the previously mentioned archeologist, came up empty more than once, despite what were believed to be solid fundamental principles, applying to making money betting the NFL.

The methodology was to pick a category and review the top and bottom aspects of each one. Ideally, hitting the bomb would be fantastic, however, realistically, moving the chains would work just fine, as long as it scored in the end.

One element that seemed to make sense was time of possession. If a team has the ball and scores enough points within the given time they have the ball, they place added pressure on the opposing team to match scores. Many analysts and play-by-play announcers are quick to point out T.O.P. is useless in a given game, when say turnovers or quick strikes are involved in their respective contest they are broadcasting. While this certainly happens, too often this is taken as factual material, with little substance behind it other than personal opinion for the telecast they are covering.

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Let's take a Saturday Adventure

Knocked down two of three on Friday and have another hopefully winning MLB system play that is 85.1 percent since 2005. The Free Pick is a NFL consensus play and the Top Trend is in afternoon action as 89.4 percent. Good Luck

What I learned yesterday – These new energy bulbs that are designed to save electricity and are more expensive, end up being more costly because they burn WAY sooner. Anybody else experience this?

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like San Diego with a money line of +150 or more, a NL team with a low on-base percentage of .350 or less, against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP of 1.350 or less), with a hot starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.00 over his last three starts. This system is 85.1 percent the last five years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The New York Yankees are 17-2 after six or more consecutive road games this season, winning by 2.6 runs per game.

Free Football Pick -3) The Left Coast Connection has eight bettors on Washington (when it was still -3) and one on Pittsburgh.

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Looking for a NFL Week 2 Upset Saturday?

The NFL preseason is even more unpredictable than the regular season, as incentives, coaching decisions and lack of continuity all play a larger role in August football. If one follows this line of thinking, this should suggest taking the points with the underdog is not a bad option, especially given the right circumstances. Here is a look at several potential upsets that could be in play on Saturday.

Oakland at San Francisco

Around the Oakland practice field this week, head coach Tom Cable heard the chant “Cable, Bumaye” - a reference to the “Ali, Bumaye” during the 1974 “Rumble In The Jungle” heavyweight fight between Muhammad Ali and George Foreman. The chant loosely translates to “Cable kill him”. This refers to reports of coach Cable clobbering assistant coach Randy Hanson, a reported Al Davis snitch.

Along with the usual absurdness that follows the Raiders, they have been running scrimmages recently against Bay Area partner San Francisco and getting their lunch and dinner handed to them. The 49ers’ players have been mocking them, which should lend itself to some professional pride by Oakland as three-point underdogs at Bookmaker.com. If nothing else, maybe the Niners will be too satisfied.

Carolina at Miami

Carolina committed a sloppy five turnovers in losing to the Giants on Monday night and will seek to tighten things down this week. Quarterback Jake Delhomme will see more action and the Panthers are a solid 8-4 ATS as dogs under coach John Fox and 6-1 SU & ATS against the AFC. Miami is a three-point home favorite and they are 16-24-3 against the spread when the favored squad.

Detroit at Cleveland

Both teams have a lot to prove this upcoming season, however Detroit has a greater sense of urgency after a winless regular season. Most people know the Lions were 4-0 (3-0-1 ATS) last preseason, before going on to make dubious history. Nevertheless, the circumstances are different as Detroit has new coaches and a real desire to bury the past. Cleveland looked absurdly pathetic in totaling 191 yards of offense against Green Bay in 17-0 loss. The Browns quarterback battle looks like it could have winner by default instead of someone earning the job. The Browns are 1-5 ATS against the NFC and are on 0-5 SU and ATS roll in the preseason. The Lions are catching 3.5-points.


San Diego at Arizona

Neither team played well in suffering defeat in first preseason games. San Diego threw for 329 yards last week, but had -2 turnover difference in losing 20-14 to Seattle as three-point favorites. The Chargers could be in a great situation since they are 9-1 ATS off a home loss. San Diego hits a rather potent system that states to Play On underdogs or pick, off an upset loss as a favorite, this week of the preseason. (28-8 ATS)

New Orleans at Houston

Both the Saints and Texans were winners last week. Houston was actually outgained by Kansas City by 27 yards, however was +3 in turnover margin. Matt Schaub was superb 7 for 7 in opener; however behind him Houston is thin at quarterback. Rex Grossman was presumed backup, but he injured hamstring and is out. That leaves Dan Orlovsky and Alex Brink to put up points for the Texans who are oddly 3-2-3 ATS at home. New Orleans has Drew Brees and experienced Mark Brunell to turn to and the Saints are 24-10 ATS in road games.

It's Friday Let it Rip!

Took a right cross to the chin with 1-2 day, but can hardly complain about 9-2 mark the last four days. That takes up to 201-137-3, almost back to 60 percent (59.4) since early April. Yesterday’s Best System was lone winner and has an 83.5 percent play in action. Want to know how the Dodgers might do tonight, check out the perfect Trend. Trent of the LCC is crazy NFL player and is already 7-1 in the preseason and offers his best play for Friday. Good Luck

What I learned yesterday – I really liked Philadelphia after they lost to New England last week, but as the week progressed and I saw them as field goal road favorites, I pulled the plug and let the game slide, halfway thinking the Colts might be sharp after scoring three points. I was correct and like I’ve said before, sometimes it’s what you don’t do that saves you money.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Arizona with a money line of +175 to +250 after allowing 10 runs or more. This bulging system is 101-20, 83.5 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Randy Wolf and the Dodgers are 10-0 in home games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since last season, winning by 3.1 runs per game.

Free Football Pick -3) Trent of the Left Coast Connection loves preseason NFL action and likes Kansas City to manipulate Minnesota and win outright.

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Friday NFL Wagering Opportunities

The Week 2 NFL preseason card thickens with a trio of wagering options to start the weekend. The showcase contest is Tennessee at Dallas, which will be on Fox starting at 8 Eastern. Kansas City will make the trip north to Brett Favre country (now west of Wisconsin) to face the Vikings and former division rivals Atlanta and St. Louis will collide near the shores of the Mississippi River. (Picture made you take a closer look, admit it)

Tennessee at Dallas

The world will get its first look at the brand new Cowboys Stadium, with its retractable-roof, built for reported price of $1.15 billion, which is big even by Texas standards. Dallas gave their usual desultory first game effort (2-5 SU and ATS), in being whacked by Oakland 31-10. Quarterback Tony Romo should see increased playing time in preparation for the regular season. Dallas will look to control Tennessee’s running game since they are 0-11 ATS when they allow 125 to 150 rushing yards.

Tennessee already has wrapped up two wins in August and would gladly take a third if the Cowboys want to go thru the motions again. The storyline for the Titans is this, will Vince Young be able to build on last week’s crisp performance (9-14 for 131 yards, TD)? DiamondSportsbook.com has Dallas as three-point favorites with the total at 37 points. Tennessee is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) as a road underdog, while the Cowboys are 2-9 ATS at home when the total is between 35.5 and 38 points.

Kansas City at Minnesota

The circus has come to Minneapolis, not the Big Top with cotton candy, thrills and chills, no its Brett Favre, this time wearing a Barney-colored number four. Whatever the reasons for Favre’s return, coach Brad Childress has believed since last season the former Packer and Jet quarterback is better than what he’s had on his roster. Sage Rosenfels is now the backup and in all likelihood, Tarvaris Jackson and John David Booty are playing for a roster spot.

The Vikings defense bottled up the Indianapolis last week (142 total yards) and is 5-1 ATS after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game. Minnesota is a three-point favorite on the home turf and will sell more tickets for this encounter than anticipated.

With last week’s 16-10 home loss to Houston, Kansas City is now 5-16 and 4-16-1 ATS since 2004 in the preseason. New coach Todd Haley and Chiefs front office won’t say anything publicly, but there has to be a few furrowed brows after Matt Cassel was outplayed by both Brodie Croyle and Tyler Thigpen in Week 1. Kansas City has failed to cover six straight Week 2 assignments and is 3-12 ATS off a home loss.

Atlanta at St. Louis

New Coach Steve Spagnuolo will be on the home team sidelines in St. Louis for the first time Friday. The always intense former defensive coordinator was pleased with the play of the offensive line that helped generate 6.6 yards per attempt on 29 carries in 23-20 win as four-point road underdogs against the New York Jets. Everything isn’t perfect in Rams-land however, as starting quarterback Mark Bulger fractured pinkie on his throwing hand in practice this past Monday, and is presumed out two weeks. That means the reins are turned over to Kyle Boller as first choice, along with Brock Berlin and Keith Null. With top receiver Donny Avery already out bettors have pounced on Atlanta, taking them from one-point underdogs to three point favorites.

The Falcons backups couldn’t hold a 23-10 lead midway thru the third quarter at Detroit and were passed on the last play of the game 27-26. Matt Ryan and the rest of the first team are expected to see extended minutes this week; however the play of the Atlanta reserves is of note if the Birds face injuries during the regular season. The Falcons are 20-8 ATS after playing their last game on the road and are 6-1 against the number playing the second of two consecutive road encounters.

MLB Series Wagering - Yankees at Red Sox

With two World Series championship rings in the past five years, the Boston Red Sox don’t play baseball games hoping to make the postseason; they play for division titles and settle for the wild card if that is last option. With roughly a quarter of the season to be played, Boston knows this is their best chance to close the six game differential in the loss column with New York, with just three games remaining between these two rivals. "There's [42 games] of our season left," Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek said. "We have too many good characters on this team. We won't quit."

Boston (69-51, +3.3 units) feels they are gathering momentum, having won seven of last 10, including sweeping Toronto on the road. The Red Sox return home where they are 38-18 and could tie the Yankees for the best home record in baseball with a sweep. Terry Francona’s club is third in baseball in runs scored on home turf at 5.7 per contest and hopes to improve on that figure tonight. Besides all the obvious aspects that are in front of the BoSox, being bludgeoned 25-8 at Yankees Stadium two weeks ago in a four-game sweep adds incentive.

How good have the Yankees (76-45, +6.9 units) been since the All-Star break? The Bronx Bombers are 25-8 and have won nine of 10 series, including the last five in a row. "The one thing that I've been really proud about [with] this club is that there's a sense of urgency every night," Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. "This club knows how to continue to push, and that's a good feeling.”

In the opener, Brad Penny (7-7, 5.22 ERA) will take the ball and he been awful of late with 0-3 record and a 7.54 ERA over his last four starts. New York will counter with Andy Pettitte (9-6, 4.09), whose been particularly sharp in allowing two or fewer runs in his last four starts. Only a lack of run support has kept him at 1-0 mark in these assignments. DiamondSportsbook.com has New York as -110 money road favorites, with total Ov10.5. The Yankees are 4-15 on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5, while Boston is 37-10 at home when the total is 10 or higher over the last two seasons.

Game 1 Edge: Boston

As expected, Saturday’s contest will be a Fox Sports afternoon affair and New York will be a decided favorite. The pitching mismatch is the top reason; with A. J. Burnett (10-6, 3.69) facing Junichi Tazawa (1-2, 5.40). The Japanese right-hander came to this country noted for low-90’s fastball, splitter and change, but right-hand hitters are batting .542 in his 11.2 innings of work. The Yanks entered this series without a win in Bean-Town in 2009, nevertheless are 16-2 after six or more consecutive road games this year. Conversely, the Red Sox have really floundered against the better teams and are 4-12 playing against a club with a winning record in the second half of this season.

Game 2 Edge: Yankees

The final contest is night-time conflict on ESPN and should be a beauty. Two big time pitchers will be paired in C.C. Sabathia (14-7, 3.58) versus Josh Beckett (14-4, 3.58). The Yankees came into the weekend with a stellar 50-27 record in night games. The New York front office paid Sabathia a Hudson River barge of money and with crunch time now here, the big lefty is 4-0 this month, with 2.35 ERA and opposing batters hitting a feeble .185 against him. Boston also plays a decent brand of baseball under the lights at 50-34. Beckett has allowed three or fewer runs in 15 of his last 18 starts, with the Red Sox 14-4. He’s been especially effective at Fenway Park with 8-0 mark and the team winning 10 of 11 starts. Beckett and the BoSox are 17-5 as favorites.

Game 3 Edge: Boston

The Yankees are the better team and have the more favorable pitching matchups in two of the three games with the last contest arguably a push. Nonetheless, the Red Sox will want to flush the unsavory taste of being swept in the Bronx and have the confidence of winning seven straight at Fenway over New York. Thus, I’ll make a slightly wavering choice of Boston for this weekend.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: N.Y. Yankees -135, Boston +105

3DW Pick: Boston

2009 Record – 7-9 (4 straight wins)

3Daily Winners is Hot - Join the Fun

Over the last three days we’re a perfect 8-0 off Wednesday’s effort. The Sal train is rollin’ again as this professional gambler is making a mint in baseball this season (he’s told me) and will take another swing at Free Pick today. The Best System is in the City of Brotherly Love and who would love 83.6 percent? The Top Trend also involves Philly, just using the oblong ball. Good Luck

What I learned yesterday – Seven of the pitchers who started major-league games on Wednesday entered the day with an ERA below 3.00 this season: Zack Greinke (2.33), Dan Haren (2.50), Adam Wainwright (2.62), Roy Halladay (2.65), Cliff Lee (2.86), Clayton Kershaw (2.91) and Jair Jurrjens (2.99). It was the first time that at least seven qualifying pitchers with an ERA below 3.00 started on the same day this late in a calendar year since Aug. 30, 1992: Juan Guzman (2.35), Kevin Appier (2.44), Tom Glavine (2.56), Charles Nagy (2.69), Jim Abbott (2.82), Ken Hill (2.82) and Sid Fernandez (2.95). (Thanks Elias)

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON all favorites like the Phillies with a money line of -175 to -250, after allowing four runs or less in four straight games, against opponent after a loss by four runs or more. In the last five years this system is 51-10, 83.6 percent.

Free Football Trend -2) The Philadelphia Eagles are 9-0-1 ATS in Week 2 of the preseason under coach Andy Reid.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal is another one of his hot streaks (17-5) and is never afraid to ride a hot club and comes right back with the Angels to topple the Tribe.

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Football Wagering Returns Tonight

The second week of the NFL Preseason gets underway with a pair of contests involving mostly elite teams. The headliner will be Philadelphia at Indianapolis, which is a Fox Sports telecast, with New England hosting Cincinnati in the other ballgame. This is often a solid wagering week, as coaches start to really formulate what kind of squad they will put together. Teams coming off losing efforts typically want to rebound, while clubs that won might be inclined to let up a bit and don’t give best efforts.

The Eagles are one such team that is tastier than a Philly cheesesteak in Week 2 of the preseason. Coach Andy Reid is in his 11th season in the City of Brotherly Love and doesn’t place much stock in August football. This is preparation time and his goal is to put together the most talented roster he can, with hopes of winning NFC East and returning to Super Bowl.

In the first game, Reid is reviewing as many players as possible and winning is an afterthought as six consecutive losses (0-6 ATS) prove. However, Reid isn’t foolish and has picked his spots, just like the man he worked under, Mike Holmgren did at Green Bay and Seattle. Reid has shown proclivity of wanting to win off first preseason loss and the Eagles are 7-3, with outstanding 9-0-1 ATS record this week, which includes 5-0 SU and ATS run since 2004.

Indianapolis is an established power in the AFC, yet having a new head coach does bring change. The Colts are notoriously poor preseason team, with 3-16 record and 5-13-1 ATS mark since 2005. Among the questions about Indianapolis, would new coach Jim Caldwell run a different camp than his predecessor Tony Dungy or would preparing for the regular season still be tantamount? The early answer suggests more of the same, with Colts totaling dismal 142 yards of offense last week in 13-3 loss to Minnesota. Without Jim Sorgi as backup quarterback, the fall is precipitous after Peyton Manning, with Curtis Painter and Chris Crane.

Bookmaker.com oddsmakers know these facts and have established Philadelphia as three-point road favorites with total of 36. Indianapolis is just 1-8 on home turf with 1-7-1 ATS mark; however they are 11-2 ATS after a loss by 10 or more points. The action starts at 8 Eastern and Michael Vick is not expected to even make the trip for Philly, making it less a story this week.

Thirty minutes earlier in the New England area, the Patriots welcome the Bengals. Tom Brady will look to continue his recovery process, this time in front of the home folks. The former Michigan man was 10 of 15 for 100 yards with two touchdowns and an interception and showed little rust. He’ll be matched against a Cincinnati defense not known for stopping the run or the pass.

The line on this encounter has moved significantly, with Cincy signal caller Carson Palmer unlikely to see the field after suffering a moderate high ankle sprain in 17-7 loss to New Orleans. New England opened as 4.5-point favorite and the swiftly moved to a touchdown choice. The injury means extensive playing time for backups J.T. O'Sullivan and Carson’s brother Jordan Palmer.

New England is 21-13 ATS as preseason chalk and they are 10-2 against the spread at home after one or more consecutive straight up wins under Bill Belichick. For underdog players, the most encouraging news is the Pats fit a negative system that states to play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games, off a road win. Teams in this spot are 5-20 ATS, winning by 2.8 points per game.

Trying to stay hot (even in Phoenix) on a Wednesday

A sweet 3-0 day helps building our momentum. Today’s Best System is 88.8 percent, but could be nerve-racking with pitching matchup. Top Trend looks like blowout, will it be? Sal is on another sensational role; check his Best Bet for Wednesday. Good Luck

What I found today – http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/9956006/The-world-according-to-Favre

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs with a money line of +150 or more who are hitting .200 or worse over their last three games, against opponent with a torrid starting pitcher with WHIP of 1.000 or less the last five times he toed the slap. This will be intriguing with Lee and Haren, but system shows 40-5 record since 2005 and suggests play against the Snakes.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Tampa Bay is 12-1 in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20, winning by 2.8 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal was 3-1 yesterday including another winner here. Today he expects the Angels to be heavenly, even in Cleveland.

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System Play has Nats in nasty spot

The Washington Nationals are like the dimmest bulb on a set of outdoor lights, they standout for not shining brightly. While the Nationals have a comfortable lead as the worst team in baseball with 43-76 record (-24.1 units), they do deserve props for playing like paid professionals and not throwing in the towel. Even with last night’s loss, Washington has won eight of 12, thanks to a potent offense that has average 6.6 runs per game, compared to season average of 4.5 runs per contest.

In spite of playing better baseball, the Nationals have earned their stripes as the worst team in the game. Washington has the highest earned run average in the National League at 4.98. When the starting pitchers fail, which is often the case, a collection of less than desirable relievers take their place, with an even worse ERA (5.07). Washington’s non-starters have brought little relief as 17-33 record proves and the recent spike in run production has helped the closers get over the .500 mark (.533) since the first week of the season.

The Nats were 4-3 losers to Colorado last night in Game 1 of the series and will face the ace of the Rockies staff, Jason Marquis (13-8, 3.55 ERA). The veteran right-hander has embraced pitching for Colorado and has spearheaded a staff which has contributed mightily to the Rockies leading the wild card race in the senior circuit, while within striking distance of the division leading Los Angeles Dodgers.

Colorado (66-53, +10.6 units) is giving no indication of fading away, winning seven of last 11 and continuing to play surprisingly well on the road with 34-30 record, despite a team batting average of .238.

Colorado is 30-14 (+21.5 Units) against the money line after three or more consecutive road games this season and will face starter Collin Balester (1-2, 6.00), who has been allowing the long ball early and often. The rookie right-hander has surrendered three homers and five runs in each of his last two outings. Washington comes into this contest 13-34 revenging a one run loss to opponent over the last two seasons.

If this doesn’t sound like a great situation for Washington, it’s not and Colorado is a -160 money line favorite at DiamondSportsbook.com. Here is the situation the Nationals face tonight.

Play Against home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175, who are ordinary offensive team scoring 4.3 to 4.8 runs per game, against a good NL starter (ERA of 3.70 or less), after a loss by two runs or less.

This system has been a reliable winner for a dozen years at 52-14, 78.8 percent. For the most part, these games have not been close, opening the door for potential run line action, with a score differential 2.6 runs. Take a closer look at this contest, the odds lineup in the bettor’s favor on the road favorite.

Inside the mind of Professional Sports Bettor

Fezzik is a professional gambler living in Las Vegas. He’s made a name for himself winning the 2008 Hilton Super Contest with 67.5 percent record against the spread on 85 wagers. Last year he also finished second in college football in Leroy’s contest, with 53-31 ATS record. He’s a featured guest on many Vegas sports betting shows since arriving in Sin City and has joined forces with Anthony Curtis at LVASports.com, which is populated by many of the industry's top gambling professionals. We sat down with Fezzik and picked his brain.


Doug Upstone: You are a highly acclaimed professional gambler, explain what that means?

Fezzik: What it means is you make you living by winning at gambling. I would call myself an “advantage player”. I will also play poker and blackjack, anything I can get an advantage at. Primarily its sports betting, that’s the most lucrative.

DU: With the football season fast approaching, explain your typical work week schedule in terms of preparation?

Fezzik: For me, you have to start on Sunday evening. Most professional gamblers I know are betting the halftime numbers on the late games and are preparing for opening numbers. For the very best players, there is no time to rest, they are not watching games to see how their bets turn out, though they may have them on, they are focused on the opening lines for the following week.

They are making their numbers for the following week on college and NFL games, so they are ready to bet as soon as the lines come up on Sunday afternoon. Because of their skill, they are able to get some really sharp bets. These bettors are not looking for in-depth analysis; they are searching for oddsmakers mistakes. They are looking for numbers they know are off by two points. Any number that is off by two or more points and they think is obvious that anybody who does serious work in studying numbers, they will just fire (bet), even if the limits are low. They are going to hit what they see as mistakes.

On Monday, they are looking at props for Monday Night Football, looking to play a middle if available or fading a public move on the side or total.

Myself, on Monday I start breaking down totals on college football for the following week, since those numbers don’t come until Tuesday.

Starting on Tuesday, everything to this point has just been my opinion. I will meet with a group of sharp bettors in Las Vegas and kick around thoughts and ideas, often focusing in on certain games and possible player injuries. This is the more intense handicapping day. If we are all in agreement, I’ll shop for the best number and bet more on that game.

Wednesday is supposed to be an off day, but it seldom is, even if the lines have stabilized by this point. It’s fairly typical for me to work until 3 in the morning Monday night and get up at 7AM on Tuesday. I try and sleep in on Wednesday’s to prevent further sleep deprivation. Wednesday is usually date night and Thursday I return to handicapping looking for more particular advantages. I should add, in between I make any number of bets on games, be it sides or totals. Thursday my attention shifts to the various contests I entered and study the lines for what I might play. For me Wednesday, Thursday and Friday are similar.

DU: In summation, you look to attack weak numbers early and if drastic changes occur, you will address those situations if they arise?

Fezzik: Exactly. Thursday is real good for checking weather reports, if I already like an Under and adverse weather is a possibility, I’ll fire on a game that coincides with my number at current value. I won’t play an Under because of bad weather if my numbers come out higher to start.

DU: What led you to this lifestyle?

Fezzik: Always a math geek, always good at numbers and probabilities, forecasts. I view it as day trading; it’s really the same as trading on the stock market, with the exception it’s probably easier to win at this.

DU: Would you recommend this to others?

Fezzik: No. Unless you are really good at math. Most people are not very good at math and those that are move on to make really good money at other lines of work.

DU: What does a professional gambler do for fun?

Fezzik: What’s nice about being a professional gambler is you can always gamble for fun. When I’m running around I might play in poker tournament that isn’t high stakes. I might enter a $100.00 poker tournament, just to play live poker, that’s fun. I like casinos, I like hanging out in sportsbooks.

I do like to go hiking up Mt. Charleston here in Vegas, which is almost 12,000 feet. It’s great to go to Lee Canyon, which is about 9,000 feet. I was there recently and it was 80 degrees, when it was 115 degrees in Vegas. I’ll try to shoot out to Shakespearean festival in Southern Utah before the season starts. I like to play golf, though I’m not very good at it. Golf in Las Vegas is one of the best values in the summer time, playing great courses from $25.00.

DU: If you weren’t a professional gambler, what would you be doing?

Fezzik: I’m pretty sure I’d be in the financial services arena, probably pricing variable annuities or being a bond trader.

DU: Do you have a preference of college or pro football?

Fezzik: I like pro football better, but I was forced to focus on college football more, since the numbers are weaker and it’s easier to beat them. The marketplace dictates the college numbers are more beatable.

DU: Where have you found the greatest opportunities in sports wagering, sides or totals?

Fezzik: The totals are easily the weaker market. The average football better wagers less than $500.00 a game. Why would they bother to beat the most difficult thing to beat, NFL sides, instead of betting college totals? The answer is they are not very good at it as recreational players.

If you told me I could only bet $500.00 a game, I’d go bet WNBA totals and college basketball totals, clearly, which are easier to beat. The frustration is if I want to bet $2,000 on college basketball total, I might have to drive to four places, which is very difficult. The great advantage of betting a NFL side, I can wager $10,000 on a single bet at one location. If you are truly good at wagering in the NFL, you can bet your opinions forcefully and with volume.

DU: What are some of your favorite wagers for the upcoming season?

Fezzik: Do you want the ones still available or the ones that are long gone?

DU: You decide.

Fezzik: I got Seattle at +275 to win the NFC West. Denver and Tampa Bay are both likely to stink this year. If you were able to play Denver at Un7.5 this year, you have a tremendous bet. You have a good bet at U7 and a marginal bet at U6.5 wins and anything less than that is probably a bad bet. Tampa Bay Un7 is great bet; Un6.5 is good bet and Un6, garbage. It’s hard for people to hear that. They wonder how can it be a great bet at Un7 and be a terrible bet Un6? I tell them, it’s worth 100 cents to move one point on a an NFL total, if I told you a baseball team was a great bet at +200 but a bad bet at +100, you would nod your head and say that makes sense.

DU: The Florida Gators are ranked number one and the defending champions. They also have what appears to be a favorable schedule. Do you see them going unbeaten and finishing No.1 again or who else do you like?

Fezzik: Florida is the clear favorite and a monster with Tim Tebow back along with 11 defensive starters. If you give me the field against Florida, I’d take the field. In reviewing the numbers, Florida has about a 38 percent chance of winning the national championship, which is huge number. If I had to do a forecast, I’d say they would win 11 games. LSU has them at home on October 10th, which would seem the game the Gators could fall, but it will be tough to trip them up.

DU: Should the average football bettor be aggressive to start the season or be more cautious?

Fezzik: This is one of my pet peeves, since all the experts say to start slow. In my opinion, that is terrible advice. The very best wagers are made in May for the upcoming football season. The people that do their homework early and quickly, make bets like Broncos and Bengals as Pick (now Bengals -3), which is just a sick bet. That doesn’t guarantee a win, but you won’t find a better play for a variety of reasons. I see this closing at Bengals -3.5.

Last year in Week 5 on Sunday night, Pittsburgh was getting 5.5 points at Jacksonville and +6 was available at different outlets. Clearly, that is going to be a better bet than anything you find Week 10. Earlier in the year, the numbers are much further off then later in the year. For those waiting for perfect information, comes perfect lines or very tight lines. Your largest wagers should come early in the year, if you are prepared. And I don’t know any professional gambler that would disagree with that.

DU: Based on your accomplishments, what advice would you pass along to any sports bettor to give them the best chance to win?

Fezzik: I would simulate the first 200 bets and track how you are doing before betting. Keep track if you are winning or losing and write down why you would have made the bet. Next if you want to bet, I would bet peanuts; way less than you think you should bet. If you can have access to advantage player, I would frequent forums that cater to gaining knowledge. In blackjack, BJ21com, Stanford Wong’s website. I’m biased toward LVASports.com, where I’m a moderator on Anthony Curtis’ website. SharpSportsBetting.com and EOG.com are other great sites to go and ask questions and learn.

It’s hard to determine who knows what they are talking about and who doesn’t. Don’t confuse the vast majority of the touts with a professional gambler. For the most part, handicappers can be successful, but they can’t share the great expertise and teach you anything.

A great example of this is touts have their Game of the Year late in the season, when as I just explained, some of the best opportunities are early in the year. They would never think to have a Game of the Year the first few weeks of the season, because they believe this would make them look foolish.

DU: The cappers that have Game of the Year’s early end up having eight or 10, to keep the customer on the hook.

Fezzik: I like John Kelly’s advise which is “listen to everyone, follow know one”. Do your research, listen to what people like and why and go back and do more research.

DU: I think too frequently everyone is looking for the “hot guy”, whether they are a handicapper or somebody on winning streak in a forum. These guys tend to dry up in time.

Fezzik: A one year record is totally irrelevant to me. Give me someone’s five-year record or lifetime record that’s what’s really significant. Take a coin and flip it 80 times and you’ll be shocked how often you get 50 tails and 30 heads.

I wanted to emphasize this, I hear all the time, “this is the right side or the wrong side of a game”. Every game has a right side for both teams if you give me the right number. Not long ago I liked Winnipeg and Calgary Under 51 points in Canadian Football, but give me 48, sure I’d play Over, since I think the number should be 49.5. I can’t stand when people say “this is the right side of the game”. That is almost never the case. You give me enough points and I’ll take the lesser team in the right value spot.

DU: Do you play many parlays yourself?

Fezzik: There are three reasons to play parlays. Reason One- You are laying less than a $1.10 on each progressive side. Standard odds on a parlay are betting 5 to win 13 on a two-team parlay. If you win more than 13, you are effectively laying less than a $1.10 on each individual bets. You find a book that pays 14 to 5 on two-teamer, you would be playing badly not to be playing parlay. Why not play less than $1.10 if you are going to bet a lot of games?

Reason Two – If there is a correlation. An obvious correlation would be big favorites -200 or higher.

Reason Three – To circumvent the limits at a sportsbook. If you have $500 limit, you could parlay few games and parlay $300 bets and next think you know you have $1,100 in action. That’s an excellent reason to play parlays.

One thing I read is authors saying “If you hit 55 percent, your return on investment is higher playing parlays”. It’s a correct statement, but you won’t be making more money betting parlays, instead you should be betting more on straight bets.

DU: Anything else you would like to add?

Fezzik: Advantage players like me have different perspective on how to bet sports. If a person is wagering for recreational purposes, betting their own money and having fun doing what they want to do, that’s all good.

DU: Great insights, I appreciate it.

Fezzik: Thanks, Doug it’s been fun.

Let's Rock

Good comeback from Sunday with 2-0 day. Today we are back to three plays and Sal has his Free Pick which was a winner on Monday. The Top Trend follows a certain Red Sox hurler and the Best System has to with a particular pitcher on a day of the week. Good Luck

What I saw yesterday – The San Diego Padres scored four runs in the bottom of the ninth inning and beat the Chicago Cubs 4-1 on Monday night. It's the fourth time this season that San Diego won a game that it trailed entering the ninth inning, tying the highest such total in the major leagues. (Thanks, Elias)

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like Oakland with a money line of +150 or more, with a starting pitcher who gives up seven or more hits a start, playing on Tuesday. Not sure what the day of the week has to do with this, but 58-12, 82.9 percent isn’t anything to ignore.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Josh Beckett and the Boston Red Sox are 14-1 as a road favorite of -125 to -150 over the last two seasons, winning by 3.8 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal was correct here yesterday and is 11-4 since Friday and views Florida as the right team to humiliate Houston.

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L.A. favored over soaring Redbirds

Last night’s St. Louis and Los Angeles contest had all the drama and intensity of a playoff game, with the Cardinals coming out on top 3-2 as -160 money line road favorites behind Chris Carpenter. This evening, the roles will be reversed, with the Dodgers the larger favorite and trying to find magic formula that worked earlier this season.

The Dodgers (70-49, +11.2 units) have lost seven of 10 games, seeing their lead in the NL West dwindle to 4.5-games and now have the same amount of losses as Philadelphia in the National League, jeopardizing their hold of the best record in the senior circuit.

It’s been an impotent offense that has hurt the Dodgers. Take away the two nine run explosions that resulted in victories and L.A. has totaled 20 runs in the other eight games (2.5 runs per outing). Matters have been made worse with starting pitchers being mildly ineffective and injuries creeping up.

Tonight’s starter, Chad Billingsley (11-6, 3.73 ERA) hasn’t pitched in 11 days due to left hamstring strain and will have to be watched cautiously. Billingsley hasn’t had much success against St. Louis with 0-2 record, with a 5.23 ERA in four starts, including being rocked for six runs and walking six in 5 2/3 innings of a 10-0 Redbirds whitewashing. The Dodgers have lost Billingsley’s last four home starts against teams with winning record.

St. Louis (68-52, +6.2 units) is making all those trade deadline pickups work and has won nine of last 10 contests. Manager Tony LaRussa’s offense has been improved with Matt Holliday and Mark DeRosa, however the pitching has been brilliant in allowing just over three runs per game during this stretch.

It was evident in last night’s contest the confidence the Cardinals are playing with and tonight’s starter Mitchell Boggs (1-1, 3.78) has given the Cards a chance to win. Though he was roughed in suffering first loss of the season last week against Cincinnati, the 25-year old right-hander has kept his team in the game and they have won five of his six starts in 2009. Boggs would become a permanent part of the rotation, but as has been the case in the past, 20 walks in just over 33 innings has made him less than trustworthy.

The Dodgers are 12-3 revenging a one run loss this season and sports bettors have moved them from -160 money line favorites at Bookmaker.com to -180, with the total Un8.5. L.A. has won 60 of last 86 games as a home favorite and is 12-4 OVER after allowing four runs or less four straight games this season.

St. Louis is decided underdog, yet is 14-3 on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 and has the same record when they have on-base percentage of .375 or better over their last five games this season.

This battle of division leaders is set for 7:10 Pacific and is available for viewing in local markets and the Cards are 16-6 UNDER after a win by two runs or less this season.

Monday wagering offerings

Offered up a rotten 0-2 day, yet still had very good week and have 192-135-3 record since the first part of April for 58.7 percent. Today we have excellent Top Trend in the Windy City. Sal is back off a hot weekend for Free Play and though we lack official Best System, found the best on the board for today. Good Luck

What I saw yesterday – Tiger Woods is human after all. Did you get the impression like I did he was trying too hard.

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like San Diego, with miserable offense (4.1 or less runs per game), against a good NL starting pitcher with ERA of 3.70 or less, with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game. This unofficial play is 133-38, 77.8 percent, however has been quite good this season at 22-5.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Mark Buehrle and the Chicago White Sox are 21-2 in home games vs. teams outscored by 0.5 or more runs a game in the second half of the season. (Sox Record)

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal nailed 9-3 in all sports since Friday and likes the Cards and Chris Carpenter to dodge defeat against the Dodgers.

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The Texas Rangers are what?

One of the more unusual aspects of the 2009 baseball season has been the play of the Texas Rangers and not for the typical reasons many would consider. The Rangers are still within striking distance of the Los Angeles Angels for the lead in the AL West and are running neck and neck with Boston for the wild card after sweeping them at home this past weekend. What makes this Texas team absolutely crazy is how they have evolved against the oddsmakers totals.

After years of being a high scoring club that more resembled a top level slow-pitch softball team the way they could score runs, these Rangers are fairly pedestrian 12th in Major League Baseball at 4.8 runs per game.

The shocker is the pitching. Having played seven more home games than road games to date this season, Texas is sixth in runs allowed at (that is SIXTH, like in 7-1= 6) 4.3 runs per game. While most Rangers fans only dreamed of ever seeing competent big league pitching, manager Ron Washington actually has them performing it, which is about as likely as daytime high of 70 with low humidity in the middle of August in Dallas-Fort Worth area.

With a slightly above average offense and a pitching staff taking this team places it has never seen, Texas has confounded oddmakers and bettors alike. Texas is the top Under team in baseball by a large margin at 73-39-4. If you analyzed the standings of the top Under teams in baseball like the regular baseball standings, the Rangers would have a lead similar to the Yankees, 7.5 games clear of the second place Chicago White Sox, who is 67-48-3 Under this season.

What has accounted for this change in Texas baseball? Rest assured the skipper Washington wished he had more offense, it just hasn’t happened. The Rangers Ballpark at Arlington is still the same; short fences in the power alleys will still surrender an ample amount of home runs, with the Rangers second in baseball to the Yankees. However, when you look at the hitting numbers, they don’t add up like prior years. Michael Young is still Michael Young, hitting well over .300, but he’s the only starter even close. Second baseman Ian Kinsler and Hank Blalock are closer to the Mendoza-line (.200 batting average) than to batting .300. Josh Hamilton’s off-season indiscretions aside, he’s a mere shell of the player who was a true All-Star in 2008, currently with eight homers and 40 runs batted in.

In 2009, this Rangers club is built around pitching (obviously that rings of an oxymoron) and its new philosophy. President Nolan Ryan didn’t want any more coddling of pitchers; he wants them to be a man like he was. Pitch counts are for wusses, throw strikes and have fielders take care of the rest.

Consider these un-Rangers’ like numbers. In the American League, Texas is 3rd in ERA and WHIP, and 5th in batting average allowed and on-base percentage allowed. Frank Francisco and C.J. Wilson lead a bullpen that has converted 35 of 44 save attempts, among the best in baseball. Plus, collectively, the bullpen has a rare better than 2-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio.

Though it takes getting used, at almost three-quarters of the way thru the season, Texas is Under team and it’s not a fluke. This is supported by 39-19-3 Under record at home, 29-11-2 Under record versus left-hand starters and 37-19-2 Under mark as a favorite.

Our sitting president talked a year ago about change, the Texas Rangers represent one of the biggest changes in baseball in 2009, being a decided Under team.

August 16 at 3Daily Winners

An extra inning defeat kept us from perfection again, however two out three isn’t shabby. Today have a sparkling system that is 93 percent and perfect in 2009. Top Trend follows one of the Bay Area teams. Free Play now available. Good Luck

What I saw yesterday – Jonathan Broxton is one of the hardest throwers in baseball, however his fastball tends to straighten out the harder he throws. My daughter and I were getting ready to leave with the Dodgers ahead 3-1 in the bottom of the ninth with one out and Mark Reynolds up. I told her I would challenge Reynolds mano-a-mano and let the best man win, but on the first pitch throw him curve ball to change his viewpoint. Instead, Reynolds is sitting dead red and Broxton throws into his comfort zone and crushes it to straight away center, now 3-2. I told her Miguel Montero is a threat for home run (11 on the year) but only if your him pitch middle in and low. What does Broxton do, game tied 3-3 and Arizona goes on to win in 10 innings. If I understand this, why doesn’t Broxton or catcher Brad Asmus?

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250, who are batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a molten starting pitcher, who has WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. This system is 66-5, 93 percent, including perfect 8-0 this season. Play against Pittsburgh.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Oakland A’s are 2-13 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) this season losing by 2.2 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Mark of the LCC, smells a Yankees sweep in Seattle.

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