Kevin O’Neill operates Strategic Sports Publishing in Atlanta, offering publications and services to those interested in sports handicapping and wagering. Kevin has published books that are intelligently written and designed for the sports bettor who has thirst for knowledge and genuinely wants to be a better sports player. Kevin is well-respected within the industry, not being a shameless self-promoter, rather, building customers and loyalty through hard work and delivering useful winning information. Kevin’s accomplishments include a 56 percent college football record of the past six years, several Top 5 finishes with The Sports Monitor and he has an always interesting reading website called
Realworldsports.com.
Here is an interview with one the best in the business.
Doug Upstone: You have long been one of the most successful sports handicappers in the industry, what methods have allowed you to stay on top?
Kevin O’Neill: That's kind of you to say, Doug. I think the most important "method" is not being beholden to a single method. Different forms of analysis will have value for a while and most will come around to being properly reflected in the marketplace, which depletes their value. While it's important to have a good defense, a balanced offense, and be well-coached, you have to look for changes in the sports that you handicap. For instance, several years ago I would have said that the running game (both offensively and defensively) is a lot more important than the passing game in handicapping matchups, even in the NFL. There's no way you can make that statement today. Things are always changing in every sport, and you have stay ahead of the curve.
DU: What in your background led you to doing this kind of work?
KO: As a kid I was a sports fan, and I liked statistics. I used to bet small amounts with a friend and we would ride our bikes down to the barber shop every week to play a dollar parlay card. I realized that I had a good feel for it. So I'd always bet on sports, but I didn't intend to get in the business. After publishing a couple of articles on sports betting in the early-90's I was encouraged to self-publish a little book on football betting in 1996. It sold a surprising number of copies pretty quickly and people really seemed to like it. All of the sudden people were writing to me and asking me questions, asking me if I sold picks, etc. So being in the business is kind of a happy accident. It just happened organically from people liking my work. I was also helped by several people to get exposure. People like Tim Trushel, Jeff Nelson, Marc Lawrence, and the late, great Mike Lee all were interested in what I was doing and supported me. Some of the early online guys like Oddswiz.com and Heath Boutwel helped me out as well.
DU: You recently had another Gambler's Boot Camp; can you explain how a sports bettor could value from attending one of these?
KO: I've known Fezzik, the pro sports bettor who won the Hilton contest last year, for a number of years and every time I'm out in Vegas we would get together for dinner. I found myself writing down a couple of things after every meeting and I think he benefited from some stuff I would share as well. I thought it would be a good opportunity to teach a small group of people about how to pursue the handicapping and wagering process at a pretty high level. He didn't want to do it and I hadn't really thought much more about it but then he called me out of the blue this year and was suddenly amenable to it. It's been a great experience, we get some pretty sharp attendees and some other guys who know a decent amount but are really eager to learn. It's a good process to tell what you do and then have to explain why it is done that way. We just did one and the preparation for it really gave me a head start on this upcoming football season, both in handicapping and refining some of my wagering techniques.
DU: Kevin, you have written three books related to sports wagering, the latest - Real World Sports Betting: How Real People Make Money in a Global Sports Marketplace. Without giving away all the juicy details- please explain how this book would be valuable to the sports bettor?
KO: I think if you're interested in a subject, you really need to be trying to learn from people who know a little bit more about it. I'm proud that from what people tell me, the beginner and intermediate guy learns a lot from my books, while people who bet for a living will tell me that there's usually a nugget or two in there for them, even if they're experienced and have a high level of expertise. I've actually got a juicy -if I can steal your word- little ebook coming out this fall that I think people would like and if they get on my mailing list at
http://www.footballannual.com/ they can get it at no charge.
DU: You publish a newsletter called the Maximum Profit Football Weekly, what makes "The Max" different in the marketplace?
KO: I think what really differentiates it is that it stands on its own as a valuable product. It's not just a vehicle to sell picks, and in fact, there's far less promotional content than other newsletters. I've also got some pretty serious contributors in Dave Fobare, Erik Scheponik, and Matty Baiungo who do a very good job and give people some real food for thought.
DU: Kevin, I also know you write an article for the Marc Lawrence’s Playbook Yearbook, where you pick the conference and division winners for college football. I’ve always liked your “Spotlight Team” previews from each conference. The two most interesting one’s to me were Illinois and San Jose State this upcoming season, can you share your thoughts.
KO: Years ago Marc asked me to do those for the annual magazine, and the process helps me get ahead of the season. I’ve always enjoyed sitting down and doing research early on teams, which helps me formulate ideas on teams for the upcoming season.
Illinois is not a strong defensive group, with the secondary likely the biggest problem. But some of those guys were big recruits, so they may develop. But Ron Zook has a ton of firepower offensively. Quarterback Juice Williams is back for senior year and he’ll be throwing to talented wide receivers like Arrelious Benn. Zook brought in Mike Schultz from TCU to be new offensive coordinator and Schultz has stated he wants offense to play fast, which is, of course, what every coach in America is saying right now. Illinois has talent on defense; it’s just a question can they step up. If not, it could be shootout after shootout for the Illini, particularly if they keep their promise about a new pace on offense.
San Jose State has an outstanding coach in Dick Tomey. After starting 1-8 with a dormant program in 2005, Tomey is 20-17 and 21-14-1 against the spread since. He has 14 returning starters, the most experienced club he’s had. San Jose State should get toughened up playing at USC and home against Utah, which should have them ready for conference play.
DU: Besides Florida, Texas, Oklahoma and USC, any other teams you see that could play for the BCS title?
KO: Conceivably a team from the ACC could be undefeated if the conference comes up really weak. If Virginia Tech finds some offense and their defense is good, they could such a team, though I expect them to lose to Alabama this week. Georgia Tech gets Clemson, Virgina Tech, and Clemson at home and are ridiculously tough to defend. If Ohio State can take advantage of the true freshman QB at USC they could be in the mix, but everyone’s tired of seeing them get whipped up on in the champion game. But I’m reaching with some of those teams, because I do agree with the premise of your question, the difference between the top four teams in the polls and the rest of teams’ seems to be a huge gap.
DU: In the NFL, Bill Belichick, Tom Coughlin and John Fox teams have been great plays on the road, any reason to think that won’t continue?
KO: It seems like the best coaches in all of sports all do well on the road. Andy Reid and Philadelphia is another team that fits over the years. One possible explanation is everyone knows these are the best coaches and there teams tend to be overvalued at home, making it difficult for them to cover point spreads at home. It wouldn’t surprise me if these teams and coaches are still covering on the road this upcoming season.
DU: What does Kevin do for fun?
KO: My answer would have been a lot different a few years ago, but right now I just love doing stuff with my kids.
DU: What is your favorite book or movie that you read or seen that left impression on you?
KO:"It's a Wonderful Life" is my favorite movie, because Jimmy Stewart helps me to remember my dad. It also reminds me of the power we have to touch those around us. So it's kind of for personal reasons, but it's also a lot less corny than people think. He goes to some pretty dark places before the people who care about him pull him back out.
As far as reading goes, I read a ton for work but try to work in some investment books, simply to get a feel for how top traders (who are like bettors) and analysts (who are like handicappers) approach their work. I also like the international thriller genre and I read a little theology as well. I've got a bunch of biographies stacked up that I'm sure I won't touch until we're done with football and basketball.
DU: I notice it seems you have low-key presence for someone who has been as successful as yourself, why this path?
K.O: It seems like the people in this business who are constantly throwing a parade for themselves really don't fare all that well when it comes to the bottom line results for their customers. But I'm also able to do so due to the structure of my business and the tremendous loyalty of my customers. You can't buy my picks online, and you can't buy my service for a day or a week, you have to be a member of my service. So I enjoy the luxury of not having to get up in the morning and have to come up with some game to sell on the internet. Being able to just do the work for my customers is a much better way to spend time than trying to remember if I've had my Conference USA Game of the Month yet this month and then try to write copy that will out-hype all the other guys on the web sites. When your focus is on the results for your customers, a daily marketing routine really gets in the way. I don’t envy the guys who have to do that every morning.
DU: What is one key aspect most football bettors miss?
KO: Getting the best possible numbers and arranging to play for reduced juice. For a guy betting $25 to $50 a game, it might not be worth it to shop around for the best lines and pick up a few extra net units a year. For someone who wagers to win beyond just the entertainment value, they should be much more focused on getting the right numbers. This could searching for lower juice, betting earlier to have better line value or taking advantage of sportsbook promotions to maximize money outlay.
In fact, I recently had conversation with OddsWiz about breaking down the variables in looking at -105 vs.-110 and what it could mean in long term money saved on sports betting. The math is pretty staggering over the long run. I’ll probably do something about that on RealWorldSports.com sometime soon.
Having a slow, unsophisticated local guy isn’t the worst thing in the world, but those types are harder to find these days.
DU: Kevin, what is one piece of sound advice you would pass along to any sports bettor?
KO: Develop a coherent strategy. That could mean focusing on an individual sport or conference with a given sport. For most sports bettors, they have jobs and they try to shot-gun analyze every game on the board in college and pro football, it is very difficult to do. If you really want to become an expert, I would specialize. I find the best people in this business are specialists, not generalists.
I’m a specialist myself. I focus on college and pro football and college basketball and the NBA. I do this full-time. A person with limited time should focus on specific area, possibly like where they live. I’m in Atlanta, so the SEC and ACC and maybe even the Sun Belt are natural areas. Because of the internet, you can have the same fan experience no matter where you live. Someone may be transferred to Atlanta from the West Coast and could still be a Pac-10 expert if they wanted. Biggest recommendation for those with time that is more limited than mine, be a specialist.
DU: Great insights and having followed your career from a distance, you’ve delivered the goods as expected. Thanks for your time and good luck this football season.
KO: Thoroughly enjoyed it, Doug. Keep up the good work.
It’s a lighter card in the junior circuit and it’s as good a time as any to look some different wagering possibilities. Most knowledgeable baseball sports bettors prefer to play totals since they believe they are easier to beat and less risk is involved paying the juice. Here is a look at each American League contest reviewing the best ways to consider on the totals front.
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