Totals System in Baseball Ready to Unload

No pennant race talk in this article, instead we’re on the hunt for a baseball betting winner and the potential is there to cash winning ticket. The Cincinnati Reds were spotted as frauds at the All-Star break hovering around .500, despite having the 14th rated runs scored and runs allowed figures in the National League. The baseball gods finally caught up with the Reds and they lost 14 out of 15 after the break.

Fortunately for Cincinnati (66-79, -2.9 units), they play in the same division as Pittsburgh, so finishing last is usually taken care of by the Pirates. The Reds have had their share of injuries, which might have contributed to better offensive numbers, yet the facts state what the Reds are, not very good offensively, ranked 28th in baseball.

It hasn’t been a marquee season in Houston (70-75, -0.9 units) either, trying to squeeze one more pennant chase out of the oldest team in the big leagues, with a pitching staff being held together with yarn and duct tape beyond Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez. The Astros don’t swing the bats a whole lot better than Cincinnati, ranked 25th in runs scored at 4.1 runs per game.

September baseball is a real challenge to wager on, with so many unexpected occurrences. Take this series, Houston had won seven out of ten and came to play on the banks of the Ohio River, having beaten the Reds 16 out of last 21 in their own ballpark. Cincinnati returned home after losing five of last six on extended road trip and they were set to be underdogs against the Astros best starters Rodriguez and Oswalt, in the first two meetings.

So what happens, Cincy wins the first two games as home underdogs and goes for the sweep today. The Reds are -120 money line favorites at DiamondSportsbook.com, with a total of Ov9 (remember that number).

Today’s pitching matchup won’t make this the game of the day, with Justin Lehr (4-2, 4.93 ERA) facing Yorman Bazardo (0-1, 9.00). What these pitchers lack in name brand recognition, they are expected to contribute to a top notch Totals system today.

Play Over on all teams when the total is 9 to 9.5, with a winning percentage between 38 and 46 percent, off two straight upset wins over division rivals as a home underdog.

Since 1997, this Total system is 35-11, 76.1 percent, with the average total score being 11.1 runs per game. This system is further aided by Cincinnati sporting a 9-1 OVER record off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog (note the similarity) over the last two seasons and Houston is 29-15 OVER vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 since 2007. September baseball, the strangeness never stops, yet winners can still be uncovered.

The Day after Monday Action

Even though I thought the Top Trend was lame based on the spreads. the outcomes were certainly a surprise. I’m not actually going to count that in the record, just call the best I could find yesterday. I will count today’s Trend which has a winning margin of three runs! Today’s Best System is special and 12-0 this season. The Free Pick was a loser Monday, thus we turn to Ken who’s doing quite well the last few days. Good Luck

What I learned today: The Patriots' win over the Bills on Monday was the first in team history in which New England trailed by 11 or more points with less than 2 1/2 minutes to play. Ben Watson became the first player since 1999 to catch two touchdown passes in the final 2:06 of a game which his team won, after his team was trailing by at least 10 points at the time of the first TD catch. Shane Matthews and Curtis Conway combined on two TD passes in the final 1:48 of a Bears' comeback win over the Saints on October 3, 1999.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 like Pittsburgh, who can’t hit a lick batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against a hot starting pitcher with WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. This isn’t your everyday system at 70-5, 93.3 percent the last five years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Roy Oswalt and the Astros are 44-7 vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game in the second half of the season, winning by THREE runs per game.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Ken of the LCC is 14-4 in all sports since Saturday (6-0 in MLB) and views Tampa Bay trumping Baltimore.

Check out Guaranteed Football Picks for this next week. We were 3-0 in the NFL and Paul Buck was 7-4 for the entire week.

The Platinum Sheet doing big numbers in New York area with satisfied customers.

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Looking ahead in the Rearview Mirror

On Saturday, it’s obvious the talent level at Wisconsin has dropped. Former coach and now AD Barry Alvarez locked up most every top recruits in the state of Wisconsin and several very good ones in Iowa and certain pockets of Illinois. Though Barry hand-picked Bret Bielema as his successor, the quality of players on the Madison campus is not the same and Fresno State was superior at several skill positions. The Bulldogs would have beaten the Badgers except for 3-0 turnover margin. Wisky’s first three Big Ten games are Michigan State, at Minnesota and at Ohio State, looking at 1-2 at best.

Speaking of the Spartans, losing at home to Central Michigan! That makes them 1-8-1 ATS before playing Notre Dame, however they have won and covered six straight in South Bend, five as underdogs.

It’s always from adversity we learn about ourselves and have self-examination. After not being able to hold Michigan out of the end zone in its final drive, more than one Notre Dame player talked about lousy practices early in the week, too many players feeling too good about themselves, which they expressed in several news outlets as for the real reason for losing. Notre Dame fans can talk about being jobbed by a few shaky calls, however if you cannot stop opponent from going 57 yards with a little over two minutes in the game, are you really a BCS team? If the Irish are to get back into BCS conversations, that means one loss at best the rest of the way and it can’t be against USC.

The opposite side of the Notre Dame crumble was USC. It’s supposed four NFL offensive linemen were either nullified or outplayed for over three quarters by Ohio State’s defense, until they bulled their necks and carried the team on 14-play, 86-yard drive for the winning score. Freshman sensation QB Matt Barkley was at the controls and he put it best about what separates USC. "We're Trojans. That's what we do," Barkley said. They travel north to see some of their old coaches at Washington and are only 1-6 ATS on the back end of two-game road trip.

It doesn’t matter if Oklahoma State was flat after beating Georgia in its opener, the Houston Cougars can play and have big time athletes. The Cougars led 24-7 at the half and were overwhelmed in the third quarter by the Cowboys 21-0, to fall behind 28-24. Most non-BCS schools would have caved in, but not Houston, they out-scored Okie State 21-7 in the final 15 minutes and gained 512 yards of total offense. QB Case Keenum is legit and Houston has speed all over the field. After covering the 16.5-point spread with ease in Stillwater, Houston has a week off before hosting another Big 12 team in Texas Tech. Don’t be shocked by total around 80.
So much for Jonathan Crompton of Tennessee maturing and being more under control after 13 for 26 performance, that totaled 136 passing yards and three interceptions in 19-15 home loss to UCLA. Crompton found out Bruins players were JUST a touch more talented than those from Western Kentucky. Nothing like having confidence heading to Gainesville.

I believe this was a first for me, literally officially losing a football wager 17 minutes and 29 seconds into a game. Everything pointed to another low-scoring South Carolina and Georgia game, until they started playing. Holding a ticket that said UNDER 40, the Bulldogs kicked a 50-yard field goal to make the score 24-17 Georgia, with 12:29 left in the second quarter. OUCH!

Time for Colorado’s Dan Hawkins to update the old resume after another loathsome performance by his Buffalos team at Akron. I’d be thinking Monster.com ahead of the Ladders.com website right now however.

Upon further review in the NFL

Denver and Cincinnati’s offenses looked fairly uncertain until the final minutes. After bottling up the Bengals the entire game with aggressive blitz packages and man coverage, the Broncos go zone, rush either three or four and Carson Palmer led Cincy down the field for looked like the winning score. Denver got lucky bounce probably of the year they needed for the 12-7 upset win and the wagering public and many Hilton Contest contestants took a bath on the Bengals.

Is Jake Delhomme done? It sure looks that way since teams are going to stack the line of scrimmage forcing him to throw. We’ll see what happens with Donovan McNabb, but you can’t help but be impressed with Philadelphia’s skill players and their team speed.

Tony Romo might have had career yardage passing day, however don’t go gaga. In the first half, he missed several open receivers and benefitted immensely from Tampa Bay’s secondary confused with new system, as much as his own skill.

It’s making more sense all the time why Matt Schaub was never a threat to be starting quarterback in Atlanta before being traded to Houston. Nice work Mark Sanchez.

A hugely popular play Sunday was San Francisco with the points and on the money line. Arizona had shown nothing in the preseason in losing four times and the Niners were prepared mentally for the challenge. Though QB Shaun Hill was intimidated by the Cardinals pass rush for over three quarters, the line buckled down late and Hill led San Fran to outright upset. The impression one has listening to comments from Cards players after the game, this team has acted like they were 13-3 and lost in the Super Bowl, not 9-7. Next is dreaded three time-zone flight to Jacksonville for early start for the Redbirds.

The Giants really controlled Washington and though they got back-doored on the spread, New York has the appearance of a team that should only improve.

Millions of sports bettors were held hostage by Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy’s decision to go for two points after scoring go-head touchdown over Chicago late in the game. This gave the Packers a 19-15 lead and the vast majority of bettors had Green Bay at -4.5 or less. In typical coach fear, McCarthy decides to go for two points trying to give his team a six-point lead, on the rare chance the Bears come back and score and miss the extra point. How rare you ask, at NFL.com, the top 39 kickers last year missed six of 1,176 extra points. That is a success rate of 99.489. Your team just scored late in the game to take the lead and grasp the momentum and you’re willing to give your opponent a reason for hope by stopping two-point attempt for an edge of over a half of one percent? Not smart decision-making unless you are from the Jim Carrey school of math deduction, from the “Dumb and Dumber” movie, with the classic line, “so I still have a chance?”

Study the numbers

In college football, favorites took one in the mustache (Rece Davis reference) with 21-24-1 ATS record. Though all games are not wagered equally, the Totals were split right down the middle in games played at 23 apiece. Double digit favorites were 12-14-1 ATS, however road favorites of 10 to 24 points were 5-0 against the number. Home underdogs were decent 10-7 ATS.

Last week only four games moved three points or more from opening number until closing on the sides and they were 2-2 ATS. Nonetheless, this may be worth following as totals that had the same movement cashed 17 of 23, following the money.

In the NFL, favorites were 8-8 ATS, with the Total dead even at 8-8. Favorites of a touchdown or more were 3-2 ATS and home underdogs were a 1-3 against the number.

3Daily Winners out to stay boiling hot

That’s one heck of a way to start off a full weekend of football with a 7-0 record, including 3-0 yesterday. Today, Slick Rick will go after yet another winner in Free Plays. The Top Trend is really good, but rather expensive and the Best System in baseball is outstanding 89.6 percent. Good Luck

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like Colorado with a money line of +150 or more, who are batting .200 or worse over their last three games, against opponent with a starting pitcher who has WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. This system has cranked out winners 89.6 percent of the time at 43-5 since 2005.

Free Football Trend -2) On Monday Night, NFL favorites of 10 or more are 22-1 straight up.
Free Baseball Pick -3) Slick Rick has four straight winners here and is chasing down a fifth with the Texas Rangers tonight. (FYI- He played both NFL favorites tonight for smaller wagers he told me)

Guaranteed NFL Plays here at 3Daily Winners.

StatFox Top Tips – The Platinum Sheet has terrific information

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Raiders need miracle as underdog

San Diego’s quest for a fourth consecutive AFC West title begins with a trip to Oakland, which finished three games behind the lackluster division winners with a record of 5-11 but managed four wins in 12 outings under Tom Cable, who was retained as head coach after replacing the fired Lane Kiffin.

The Raiders, a miserable 24-72 and 33-62-1 ATS over the last six seasons, haven’t won an opener since 2002 and lost a Week 1 Monday night game to Denver a year ago by a 27-point margin. They were swept by the Chargers, falling 28-18 at home in Kiffin’s finale, after leading by 15 at halftime and 34-7 on the road in the rematch.

Offseason headlines were nothing new for Oakland, which made a splash on draft day but didn’t spend foolishly on free agents. The big additions are wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey (1-Maryland), offensive tackle Khalif Barnes (Jaguars) and defensive end Greg Ellis (Cowboys). The Raiders also acquired Richard Seymour this last week from New England and he’s been less than enthusiastic about wearing the Black and Silver after hearing about all the horror stories in Al Davis’ nuthouse.

Considering the Raiders ranked 29th in total offense and dead last in passing offense, and owner Al Davis’ need for speed, the selection of Heyward-Bey at No. 7 overall shouldn’t have created such an uproar. The fleet-footed rookie, along with Johnnie Lee Higgins, will allow strong-armed quarterback JaMarcus Russell (13 touchdowns, eight interceptions) to let the pigskin fly. It should be noted Heyward-Bey has been dropping passes, which was his weakness coming out of Maryland. Oakland starts the season as 10-point home underdogs at DiamondSportsbook.com, with a total of 42 and they are 9-19-1 ATS as home underdogs.

While Russell completed only 53.8 percent of his passes, San Diego’s Philip Rivers (4,009 yards, 34 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, league-best 105.5 rating) ranked among the leaders with a 65.3 success rate. Funny thing, though, two of Rivers’ three weakest games from an accuracy standpoint came against the Raiders last season. He went 24-for-47 versus Oakland with four touchdowns and two interceptions.

If Rivers comes anywhere close to his production from last season or surpasses it, the Chargers are likely to run away with the division. Their defense, under the direction of Ron Rivera since the midway point of last season, became more attack-oriented than read-and-react, and welcomes back linebacker Shawne Merriman from knee surgery. The unit has some question marks up front. Travis Johnson replaces Igor Olshansky (Cowboys) at left end, fifth-year right end Luis Castillo has yet to play up to his contract and tackle Jamal Williams, entering his 12th year, isn’t getting younger. Even so, it might not matter with San Diego having won 11 in a row over Oakland, covering the spread 10 times.

San Diego covers because they always do against the Raiders. The Chargers have covered seven straight at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, winning six times. San Diego has a number of edges, all related to talent. LaDainian Tomlinson could break back big against unsettled Oakland defensive front that was last against the run in 2008. Though Shawne Merriman missed last season due to injury, he’s shown no ill effects in the preseason and should expose Oakland at either offensive tackle position. The Raiders outside of CB Nnamdi Asomugha are inexperienced and unproven in the secondary, look for San Diego to attack. Lastly, make JaMarcus Russell beat you. Stack the middle against the run and force the former No.1 pick to make consistent throws to inconsistent wide receivers and score enough points to matter. Winning by two touchdowns should not be an issue for the Bolts against a sorry franchise that is 2-11 ATS at home when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points.

Oakland covers if they shorten the game by effectively running the ball. Darren McFadden needs the ball in space to be most effective, which means quick pitches or screens to either side. Though the Chargers are big and powerful, they are not more than average in the speed category. Get them moving from side to side and possibly the Raiders can wear down the defense. Tight end Zach Miller needs 7-10 catches in this game, to keep the chains moving and Oakland has to score points of some kind every time they cross the 50-yard line. Defensively, play with a lot of energy and don’t get discouraged by a few big plays. Force field goals and keep Chargers out of the end zone. As a coach, Norv Turner is just 1-9-1 ATS in first division matchup. Execute the plan and THE RAIDERS are within five points with a chance to win late.

Monday Night Angles –Teams like Oakland with just one MNF appearance playing at home are 6-14 ATS as hosts. Road favorites of 10 or more points like San Diego are 1-6 ATS since 1999 on MNF.

College and Pro Football Newsweekly contributed to this article.

Tom Brady returns for Monday Night Football

Not even the absence of Tom Brady last year stopped the Patriots from continuing their dominance of Buffalo. New England swept a fifth straight season series (8-2 ATS) from its AFC East rival and takes an 11-game series winning streak into the Monday night opener at Gillette Stadium. The Bills haven’t defeated the Patriots since Week 1 of the 2003 campaign, and even worse is they haven’t scored more than 17 points in any meeting since that game.

Perhaps the debut of flamboyant wide receiver Terrell Owens can get Buffalo over the hump against New England and set the tone for the team’s first playoff season since 1999.

But as Boston rockers Aerosmith would suggest: Dream On.

Brady, not Owens, will be the center of attention in this one after going down in last year’s opener and missing the remainder of the season following a record-setting 2007. Brady’s reconstructed ACL and MCL have passed all the tests, and he’s still got Randy Moss and Wes Welker as primary targets and another potential home-run threat in Joey Galloway. The Patriots have covered six of last eight games against the AFC.

Buffalo’s defense needs to be better and more consistent, especially against the run. Even with Marcus Stroud up front, the unit gave up 121.6 rushing yards per game and 18 touchdowns, ranking 22nd and tied for 24th in those categories, respectively. The Bills also had only 24 sacks, which prompted the drafting of Aaron Maybin (1a-Penn State) at No. 11 overall. Maybin led the Big Ten in sacks with 12. One matchup to watch closely is right end Aaron Schobel, who missed the last 11 games of last season with a foot injury, against Patriots left tackle Matt Light. After 5-1 start last season, the Bills closed 2-8 and 3-7 ATS.

Offensively, with Marshawn Lynch serving the first of his three-game suspension for violating the league’s personal conduct policy the Bills will turn to Fred Jackson and Xavier Omon for ground work. Lynch topped 1,000 yards in each of his first two seasons, while Jackson (571 yards) averaged 4.4 yards on 130 carries in 2008. The Bills are only 2-9-1 ATS in last dozen trips to New England.

New England could also use a three-pronged running game. Laurence Maroney is still considered the starter, but he’s on thin ice and coming off an injury that limited him to a 28-carry year. Fred Taylor, formerly of Jacksonville, wasn’t given a contract to watch from the sideline and will see action. Pats backers have been taking it on the chin at home with 3-8 ATS record since 2007.

DiamondSportsbook.com has New England favored by 11 over the Bills, with a total of 46.5. The UNDER has been good 17 times in last 22 matchups and the Patriots have not covered their last seven home games as favorites of 10 or more points. Here is a look at how either team covers the spread.

Buffalo covers if they attack New England vertically. The Bills didn’t bring in T.O. to run five yard out-routes, they need him to be dynamic presence in pushing the ball downfield. This could open up chances for Lee Evans who also has breakaway speed with big play explosiveness. The New England secondary isn’t exactly rock solid at the moment and if Bills linemen can keep Trent Edwards clean, they will have opportunities. Though Brady looked comfortable in limited action in the preseason, every quarterback who has gone thru major knee surgery, has to be a little nervous with players around their feet, it’s only natural. The best way to bother Brady is with pressure. If the Bills can execute properly they could make this a touchdown or less contest.

New England covers because they have no fear of the Bills and have won last 11 meetings by 22.7 points per game. Coach Bill Belichick will want to have Brady get comfortable right away, with quick throws to Welker and Moss out of the shotgun. This opens up numerous options in the offense and if the Buffalo pass rush is anywhere as anemic as last season, the Pats explode. The Patriots are not 100 percent situated on defense, especially without Richard Seymour, nonetheless that’s better than the Bills offensive setup, who fired offensive coordinator Turk Schonert September 4, 10 days before this game. Sounds like Pats by say 22.

Monday Night Football System - Play On a favorite of 10 or more points. This system is 15-8 ATS, 65.2 percent with the favored team 22-1 straight up.

College and Pro Football Newsweekly contributed to this article.

Are you ready for some NFL football?

A super 4-0 Saturday in college football, let’s see if we can follow up the opening weekend of the NFL with similar results. There are no outstanding ATS systems in the NFL today; however there is a convincing money line play at 28-4 that is not overpriced. The Top Trend is flat dead perfect over the last nine years and Slick Rick’s Free play has arrived. Good Luck

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST underdogs like Cleveland vs. the money line (note- money line not the spread) in non-conference games, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses. Over the last decade this system is 28-4, 87.5 percent and the ML is reasonable at -210.

Free Football Trend -2) The previous year’s Super Bowl losers are on 0-9 ATS run, which suggests to Play Against Arizona.

Free Football Pick -3) Slick Rick picked the Packers at -3 the other day and has told me to tell you to not worry about the -4.5.

Guaranteed NFL Plays here at 3Daily Winners.

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NFL Opening Weekend

Thursday was a delicious bacon-wrapped filet appetizer, with the first main course coming Sunday in the NFL. Miami at Atlanta is among the early games that please, as should Jacksonville at Indianapolis, with their new head coach. NFL bettors made Philadelphia into a road favorite at Carolina after starting as underdog. The late afternoon has the NFC Super Bowl representative Arizona hosting division opponent and a team that won the Super Bowl the year prior, New York, is also embroiled in early division dogfight. Enjoy my sports wagering friend.

Miami at Atlanta 1:00E CBS

Miami and Atlanta will try to build on playoff seasons when they open the 2009 campaign in one the two inter-conference games scheduled for Week 1. Miami (11-6, 8-9 ATS) was the league’s biggest surprise in 2008, improving by 10-wins from ‘07. Oddsmakers don’t expect it to continue though, dropping the Dolphins’ regular season wins prop bet to 7.5 this fall. Perhaps that has something to due with the fact that the Fish had the best turnover ratio in the NFL. Head coach Tony Sparano’s team was 3-1 SU, but 0-4 ATS vs. the NFC last year.

Keys to the Game-

Miami’s Ronnie Brown has looked sharp in the preseason and if the Dolphins linemen can make a few creases, Brown could be productive. On defense, Fins coaches have kept LB Joey Porter on the weakside and moved Jason Taylor over to strong side of D-Line. They believe this gives them better combination for pass rush. Cornerback Sean Smith will likely have to go it alone with Michael Jenkins, which could determine Miami’s 1-7-2 ATS record in recent September’s.

Atlanta better run Michael Turner early in the season, since those 376 carries from a year ago are bound to affect him. Last year, Matt Ryan threw less than 10 percent of all pass attempts to tight ends, with Tony Gonzalez that will change as of the first quarter. Look for coach Mike Smith to use zone combinations to hide corners, the weakest part of the Falcons defense. The Birds are 9-2 ATS in season openers.

3DW Power Rating – Atlanta by 5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Atlanta -4, 44

Philadelphia at Carolina 1:00E FOX

Top contenders in the NFC go head-to-head Sunday when Philadelphia visits Carolina. The Panthers opened as one-point favorites, but have been flipped to 2.5-point underdogs at most wagering outlets. Carolina (12-5, 8-7 ATS) is hoping to get off to a fast start and erase the memory of January’s embarrassing playoff loss. They rolled to a 12-4 regular season mark but were beaten 33-13 as a 10-point favorite vs. Arizona in the divisional round.

Philadelphia (11-7-1, 12-7 ATS) also lost to the Cardinals a week later in the NFC title game, but has made several well received changes since in the offseason. The Eagles are 8-1 ATS as a road underdog over the last two seasons, and 33-15 ATS in that role under head coach Andy Reid. They have won two straight series, but haven’t visited Carolina since ’03. The Panthers were 5-3 ATS at home in ’08, their first winning mark since ‘02.

Keys to the Game-

Philadelphia’s defense for the first time in years won’t look over and see DC Jim Johnson, who lost battle to cancer. They will have to be strong in the A and B gaps to prevent Carolina running backs from dominating game. The Eagles blitzes could affect Delhomme, who doesn’t handle pressure well on consistent basis, however they must get to him, since DB’s are often on an island. Philly runners will have to soften up vulnerable Panthers run defense. If they don’t, they fall 1-8-1 ATS as road favorites of a field goal or less.

The best way to defeat the Eagles pressure is run the ball right at them. Carolina is certainly capable of this and DeAngelo Williams is great bouncing runs to the outside. Coach John Fox has a defensive quandary; his club must be stout up the gut, yet maintain balance and not let talented Eagles perimeter players expose them. This figures to be close NFC battle, which means Carolina must maintain focus and not turn the ball over. Its bad enough they are 0-6 ATS before playing rival Atlanta.

3DW Power Rating – Carolina by 1
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Philadelphia -2.5, 43.5

Jacksonville at Indianapolis 1:00E CBS

There are seven divisional games scheduled for opening week in the NFL, perhaps none bigger than that in the AFC South between Indianapolis and Jacksonville. The AFC South is expected to be one of the most competitive divisions in football, and both the Colts and Jaguars boast playoff expectations.

This has been a back-and-forth series as well, with road teams owning a 6-4 SU & 7-2-1 ATS record in the last 10 meetings. The last three games have been decided by seven or less points. Ironically, the pointspread for Sunday opened at Colts -7. The Colts were just 3-8 ATS last year as favorites despite winning 12 games. Indy will begin a new era under Jim Caldwell, the former quarterback coach. The Jaguars are hoping to forget ‘08 after losing six of the last seven games, both SU & ATS.

Keys to the Game-

Indianapolis begins the post Tony Dungy-era looking for 10th win in last 11 openers (7-2-1 ATS). Though a new coach means some changes, keeping Manning upright is always the first concern. This is critical year for Joseph Addai, who must come thru or rookie Donald Brown will start taking away his carries. Manning has always been at his best with a good running game. The Colts are only 3-7 ATS in last 10 home games and most expose new Jaguars linemen and punish Garrard.

Jacksonville is going to have to run the ball successfully to stay out of third and long and is starting two rookie offensive tackles against Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. This sets up play-action passing for Garrard and saves his hide. Indy doesn’t have a lot of size in the middle, thus the Jags could wear down the Colts with Maurice Jones-Drew. The Jaguars have also been early money-makers with 8-2 ATS record in Week 1 and they’ll need to change up defenses frequently to cloud Manning’s judgment.

3DW Power Rating – Indianapolis by 7
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Indianapolis -6.5, 44.5

San Francisco at Arizona 4:15E FOX

The defending NFC champs start another run at it on Sunday when they host division-rival San Francisco. Arizona (12-8, 13-7 ATS) was a pleasant postseason surprise, turning a 9-7 regular season mark into a Super Bowl berth. In 2009, the Cardinals will have the target on their backs and be fighting the dogged record of the Super Bowl loser in the follow-up year. One of the main reasons for the success last year was their record in divisional play, 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS.

San Francisco (7-9, 7-8-1 ATS) has dreams of its own in the NFC West after winning five of its final seven games, riding the momentum of head coach Mike Singletary taking over. This has been a very trendy head-to-head series, as the last five games have gone OVER the total, and the road team boasts a 5-3 SU & 8-0 ATS record in the last eight.

Keys to the Game –

This will be a common theme all year for San Francisco, they can’t allow opponent to get off to fast starts since offense isn’t built to overcome big leads. Frank Gore must be moving the chains and Shaun Hill has to be effective in hitting targets and making good reads. Time of possession means everything to the Niners. Kurt Warner isn’t getting younger and mobility is further decreased with bad hip. Try and cover receivers tight and make him hold the ball to create pressure. San Fran is 4-1 ATS as dog in 3.5-10 point range.

Arizona doesn’t figure to have a number of offensive issues as long as they keep LB Patrick Willis relatively blocked. Willis is among the best inside backers in the NFL, thus one-back sets keep him from being as active in opposing teams backfield. Frank Gore has punished the Cards defense; he must be contained and cut off yards after initial contact. The 49ers receivers are mostly possession types except for TE Vernon Davis, who can be home run hitter. He must he watched closely for club that is 6-2 ATS as home chalk.

3DW Power Rating – Arizona by 7
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Arizona -6, 46

Washington at N.Y. Giants 4:15E FOX

The Giants weren’t at their best when it mattered most last year and failed to defend their Super Bowl championship, but they proved too much for the Redskins to handle in a pair of NFC East showdowns. New York (12-5 SU & ATS) outscored Washington 39-14 on the way to sweeping the season series for the second time in three years.

The rivalry renews in Week 1 at the Meadowlands, where the top-seeded Giants lost only once during the regular season (6-2 ATS) but then suffered a divisional round playoff loss to Philadelphia. The Redskins (8-8, 6-8-2 ATS) watched the playoffs from home following an ugly second half that saw them drop six of eight to finish .500, which placed them last in what many experts believe will again be the best division in football.

Keys to the Game-

Quarterback Jason Campbell answered the challenge in the preseason and now has to establish himself as the leader in Redskins locker room. He’ll have to make intelligent decisions in the face of ferocious Giants pass rush and make plays. Clinton Portis is slowing down, but will have to should the load if Washington is to pull the upset. This is perfect game why Albert Haynesworth was showed with cash, he needs to help contain Giants running game for Skins squad that is15-6-1 ATS as NFC East visitor.

When New York has problems with Washington, it usually revolves around failure of pass defense giving up big plays. Contain the Redskins deep ball and make them go long distances by moving the chains. The Giants linemen have to keep Haynesworth from being disruptive force and maintain manageable third down sequences. A healthy Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora should spell trouble for Jim Zorn’s offense and the blue-clad Giants are 8-3 ATS as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.

3DW Power Rating – New York by 9
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – New York -6.5, 37

Super Saturday of College Football

Can you feel it? A full weekend of college and professional football, yea baby. We have two plays lined up in our Best System that is 26-4, not straight up, against the spread. We have a two for one price on the Top Trend, same game coming out a winner both ways. Slick Rick has his Free Play up. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday- Did you have the same impression I did about Pittsburgh and Tennessee? The difference between the two teams at least in that game was at quarterback. Time to start looking for the next coach in Colorado, Dan Hawkins has not and will not succeed in Boulder. The first mistake, if you want to call it that, was having his son Cody as QB. He’s supposed to be 5’11, which is debatable. The younger Hawkins has fairly strong arm, but unlike a Chase Daniel, Drew Brees or even Doug Flutie from years ago, he’s not especially accurate. It’s also clear Cody’s not real comfortable rolling out, he’s more a “plant and chuck” quarterback as opposed to being able to run around or be particularly good with touch passes. As guys like to say, at the end of the day, how many BCS schools could Cody Hawkins play for that would be successful?

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Free Football System-1) PLAY ON underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses, team that had a winning record last season. This system is 26-4 ATS. 86.4 percent and says to play South Carolina and Fresno State. Two for two last week.

Free Football Trend -2) We have double angle that counts as one. Boston College is 11-1 ATS after gaining 7.25 or more yards a play in their previous game and Kent State is 2-14 ATS playing on a Saturday over the last three seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Slick Rick is taking the points with UNLV.

Guaranteed Plays here at 3Daily Winners.

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College Football Betting Saturday

It’s a busy Saturday of college football and sports bettors should be ready with a number of compelling televised matchups. The most important contest of the day has USC traveling to Ohio to tackle the Buckeyes; however that isn’t the only one. Notre Dame and Michigan get to prove which program is further along on rebuilding process. Lane Kiffin and Tennessee will try to extract revenge for last year’s loss at UCLA. West Virginia is also looking to settle a score with East Carolina, after being dressed down by the Pirates last season. Finally, it’s the SEC opener for South Carolina and Georgia, with both teams seeking offense. It promises to be quite a day. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

East Carolina (+6, 44) at West Virginia 3:30E

Last year, East Carolina burst onto the scene with opening game upsets over Virginia Tech and West Virginia. The Pirates went on to win the Conference USA championship. With 16 returning starters, they’ll try and take the next step in beating a major BCS school on the road. In a league known for wide-open offenses, coach Skip Holtz went for defense. The D-line is a particular is a strength, with the likes of Jay Ross and Linval Joseph on the inside at tackle and C.J. Wilson and Scotty Robinson covering up the ends. Whatever they miss, last year’s leading tackler, middle linebacker Nick Johnson cleans up. East Carolina is 13-3 ATS on the road the last four seasons.

A new era of West Virginia football continues without Pat White at quarterback. Jarrett Brown is the new big on campus and he’ll hopefully lead a more varied attack with four or five exciting targets to throw to like slot receiver Jock Sanders. The one mainstay is running back Noel Devine, who will now be the featured runner. Devine ran for over 1200 yards a season ago and with White no longer toting the pigskin as much, the junior scat back could add 300 to 500 yards to his total if the offensive line comes together. The Mountaineers are mediocre 11-18-1 ATS as home favorites since 2003.

West Virginia had seven-game winning streak snapped last year at East Carolina, but is still 17-3 and 5-3 ATS all-time against the Pirates. The Mountaineers are perfect 12-0 at home versus the squad from Greenville, NC and are 4-1 ATS. Last year was the first time in 79 games the ‘Teers had been held without touchdown and they’ll have serious revenge on their minds this season. Just keep in mind East Carolina is 10-2 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points.

UCLA (+10, 45) at Tennessee ESPN 4:00E

Last year’s 27-24 overtime loss at UCLA set the wheels in motion for Philip Fullmer to be done as coach in Knoxville. Two games later, a home drubbing by Florida showed just how far the talent level has slipped at Tennessee. Lane Kiffin left the Oakland Raiders in controversy and created plenty being hired in Tennessee. With one impressive win over Western Kentucky under their belts, this is a game the Vols must have if they want to go bowling this season. The offensive line returns four starters and they got off to great start with the Vols runners totaling 380 yards on the ground last week. Granted, the competition was much, but quarterback Jonathan Crompton appeared more poised and mature. Look for Tennessee to run the ball with a decent collection of backs and Crompton throwing mainly play-action passes to better receivers than a year ago who lack experience. The Vols are 7-14 ATS vs. present Pac-10 teams.

It’s year two in Rick Neuheisel’s return to UCLA campus, however it might be only a little better than last year’s 4-8 opening salvo. The starting signal caller is red-shirt freshman Kevin Prince and the Bruins offensive staff likes his ability, however, will have to be patient with his inexperience. The offensive line and running backs are strictly generic, which will limit production. The defense will be the strength of this squad with solid performers up and down the starting 11. They will have to pressure and confuse Crompton, similar to last year and hopefully force a few miscues to place offense in position to score. UCLA is 8-2 ATS as underdogs when opponents are in revenge spot.

The Bruins are 6-2 against the spread vs. Tennessee and are 20-7 ATS the first two weeks of the season. Off last week’s rout of Western Kentucky, the Volunteers are 8-3-1 ATS at Neyland Stadium as a home favorite the last three years and are 9-0 UNDER in home games after a win by 28 or more points. This could be table-setter for big trip to Gainesville next week.

Notre Dame (-3, 48) at Michigan ABC 3:30E

If adversity builds character, then Rich Rodriguez and Charley Weis are two men well-versed in character issues to sell their respective teams on. No coach in America probably is looking forward to game day more than RichRod as controversy follows him around like a shadow. Rodriguez primarily stayed with Tate Forcier as his quarterback last week against Western Michigan and the results were impressive in Michigan’s 31-7 victory. The offense showed more continuity with everyone more experienced and knowing what the expectations are concerning assignments. The Wolverines should be nastier on defense with defensive coordinator Greg Robinson in charge of that side of the ball. Nevertheless, he installed a new 3-4 concept, which means a learning curve for a team that is 14-21-1 ATS at the Big House since 2004.

Notre Dame gave a stunning performance at home against a pretty good Nevada club winning 35-0. Weis’ Fighting Irish will take this act on the road for the first time in 2009. Offensively, Notre Dame is expected to be score points all season with junior Jimmy Clausen in command, throwing to a receiver contingent as good as any in the country. The offensive line has to come off the ball and open holes for an above average stable of backs and if Notre Dame can run effectively, the offense should really hum. From athletic perspective, this is best defense in South Bend in years. The question is how badly will the youth hurt them? The Irish are 3-6 and 2-7 ATS in road openers.

This is one of those crazy college football series, with the underdog 12-2 ATS, which has included five upsets in last seven meetings. How Forcier handles the Irish onslaught of pressure will go a long way in determining outcome. If he can make big plays, the Wolverines have a shot, if not, Notre Dame should win. In watching both teams, the most striking aspect is RichRod’s team should be where Weis’ squad is next season. Michigan is 0-7 ATS after playing a game at home, the Fighting Irish are 10-1 UNDER in road games over the last three seasons.

South Carolina (+7, 38) at Georgia ESPN 7:00E

South Carolina has been dying to have a top level football program for some time now; the problem is history doesn’t back them up. The Gamecocks had won 28 games in last four seasons for only the second time in school history (granted, more chances to win with expanded schedule) during Steve Spurrier’s four years. Off the 7-3 defensive struggle with N.C. State, it’s fairly clear Spurrier has a team that should finish above .500, with a losing SEC record. They can attempt to alter people’s perceptions with an upset between the hedges at Georgia. Sophomore QB Stephen Garcia has to be the leader of an offense that has many deficiencies. The defense showed they have ability in holding the Wolfpack to three points and the Gamecocks arrive in Athens 7-3-1 ATS as SEC road underdogs.

Georgia got an early wakeup call at Oklahoma State and were handled 24-10. The Bulldogs have ample talent in supply with one of the best offensive lines in the SEC, however they were held in check for 95 total yards last week. Senior QB Joe Cox, can’t be “no ordinary Joe” like last Saturday and must be more accurate tossing the ball to talented A.J. Green among others. This is big year for defensive coordinator Willie Martinez, with 10 of the 11 projected starters for this SEC showdown either juniors or seniors. Georgia has surrendered 30 or more points in last 53 games under Martinez compared to four times in previous four years before his arrival. The Bulldogs are just 4-9 ATS the last four years as conference favorites.

These matchups have been low scoring, tight contests. Georgia was the last team to score 20 points in this confrontation in 2004 and six of last eight have been decided by seven points or less. The wagering public has taken the total from 41 to present level. The Gamecocks are 16-4 UNDER the first two weeks of the season and the Bulldogs are 23-9 UNDER in the first month of a new campaign. The visitor is 5-2-1 ATS of late, with the favorite 7-4-1 against the number.

USC (-6.5, 45) at Ohio State ESPN 8:00E

Though it will be downplayed as such, every Big Ten fan (except possibly in Ann Arbor) would relish an Ohio State victory, even if they hate the Buckeyes. The Big Ten could be a running joke on the new Jay Leno nightly show if they are clobbered again by the Trojans. What’s unfortunate is Jim Tressel’s teams just haven’t been able to beat Florida and USC in the last several seasons in the biggest games and now they are looked upon as outcasts. A strong case can be made the Buckeyes are Phil Mickelson playing in the Tiger Woods era, among the very best, just not the best. Sophomore sensation Terrelle Pryor has enough faith in himself that he can take Ohio State to next plateau starting now. The Buckeyes have had success against Pac-10 teams, but not against USC (0-4 ATS).

Does any team relish the spotlight more than Pete Carroll’s squad? When the lights come, USC is usually at their best and they are 11-1 SU and ATS in initial road game of the season. The offensive line is Top 3 in every preseason publication and seldom is there a short supply of running backs at USC. Junior RB Joe McKnight is starting to play up to expectations when he hit the USC campus and last week had a scintillating 145-yard, two touchdown game on 14 carries. Freshman Matt Barkley will have to play his way out of the starting job and looks to be the next great Trojans field general. The defense lost a ton of NFL talent, however no one is thinking the replacements won’t be top level.

Statement games are a USC specialty and they are 13-3 and 12-4 ATS against Top 10 teams since 2001. The Ohio State defense must finds ways to rattle the youngster Barkley and possibly create turnovers that lead to points. The Trojans are 36-18 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game and 8-1 ATS in non-conference games. Unless Buckeyes come up big, it will be the same old “overrated” mantra about the Big Ten.

Baffling Buffalos in Toledo

Coach Dan Hawkins must have read motivational books about setting high goals as a method to reach better than expected results. In the off-season, Hawkins stated he expected Colorado to win 10 games this season, which is ambitious to say the least for team picked fourth in the Big 12 North. Nevertheless, unless you set the bar high things won’t change and he’s hoping his son Cody or Tyler Hanson come thru at quarterback. Running back Darrell Scott needs to live up star billing and has the ability to make the Buffaloes special on the ground.

Well, none of this happened in upset 23-17 upset loss to Colorado State in the open in Boulder. The Rams jumped all over Colorado in building 17-0 lead. The Buffalos were forced to play catch-up the rest of the way and had the opposite of what they wanted from offense with 40 pass attempts, compared to 21 runs. QB Cody Hawkins was off target and when he was accurate, balls were clanging off receivers hands.

Defensively, Colorado has to come up with answers beyond a solid linebacker group led by Jeff Smart. The Buffs secondary was burned repeatedly by QB Grant Stucker of the Rams and with Toledo wanting to throw the ball all over the field, as pass rush is tantamount. Colorado is 5-9 and 5-7 ATS the last three years in non-conference games.

It’s a new era of Toledo football with coach Tim Beckman now at the helm. Reports out of Toledo have he’s sold his squad on the fact of taking ownership, convincing them it’s their team, not his. This will be the third time in four years a Big 12 team has visited the Glass Bowl and the Rockets have won and covered the previous two. Toledo has offensive talent with seniors Aaron Opelt under center, running back DaJuane Collins and wide receiver Stephen Williams. This trio contributed to 493 yards in 52-31 loss to Purdue.

Where coach Beckman has to make impact is on defense, a weak spot the last couple of seasons and again last Saturday, where they were run over for 305 yards and passed on for 220 more. Beckman’s background is defense and he likes swarming defenders to the ball. Right now he needs to have about 13 Rocket defenders on the field at all times. The best news is a nationally televised game before an excited Friday night crowd, with Toledo 15-5 ATS in home games off a road loss.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Rockets as 3.5-point underdogs with a total of 54.5 and they are 8-3 ATS as a home underdog, which has included six outright upsets in the last 10 years. Colorado has to be ready to play against fired-up Rockets club or this could be the start of the end of the Dan Hawkins era in Boulder. The Buffaloes are just 4-9 SU and ATS in true road openers.

ESPN will be in Klinger’s backyard (of MASH fame) starting at 9 Eastern and Toledo is 21-7 OVER in home games.

NFL Opening Day and other News

Another great opening day of NFL action. Speaking of great that was yesterday’s 3-0 record. Today we have a terrific NFL system that is 82.8 percent against the number. The Top Trend follows the exploits of a great MLB pitcher on his home turf. Slick Rick attacks football, in a way seldom seen here with Free Play. Good Luck

What I thought today- I read where Brett Favre said he wouldn’t let his streak of consecutive games get in the way of Minnesota winning if he was hurt or not playing well. Brett, please, for the love of god just shut up. I used to think the world of you, but enough already. Your super-sized ego didn’t stop you from wanting to continue to play football. Besides wanting to play, you have to carry vendetta against Green Bay, but now all you care about is not being a problem as an almost 40-year old quarterback. Brett how stupid do you think we are? You can’t quit playing; only a broken leg or right arm will keep you out and EVERYONE including you knows it. Give it up; the act is way beyond tired.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) This is about as simple as gets. Play On NFL favorites when playing on a Thursday. This system is 24-5 ATS, 82.8 percent and believes the Steelers are the play.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Roy Oswalt and the Astros are is 19-3 in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) in his career.

Free Football Pick -3) Slick Rick picked up two more winners yesterday and has a two-teaser, Clemson +11 along with Titans +12.5.

Paul Buck has a Guaranteed Play in the NFL tonight.

StatFox Top Tips – The Platinum Sheet has terrific information

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A New NFL Wagering Season Begins

Keeping with recent NFL tradition, the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers open the new season at home before a national television audience on Thursday night. Pittsburgh, fresh off its second crown in four years, hosts Tennessee in a battle of the AFC's top two playoff seeds from 2008.

The Titans (13-4, 14-4-1 ATS in 2008), who defeated the Steelers 31-14 in Week 16 last season and captured the AFC South title with 13 victories, are eager to be back in action after suffering a mistake-filled playoff loss at home to Baltimore in the divisional round. Tennessee outgained the Ravens by 180 yards, but three turnovers in the red zone proved too much to overcome.

Turnovers, a stifling defense, a deft running game and sound quarterback play from veteran Kerry Collins made the Titans the team to beat entering last year's postseason. And even with menacing tackle Albert Haynesworth (Redskins) gone from a defense that ranked in the top six in most categories, Tennessee is certain to be a factor in a division any of the four clubs could win and is 7-0 ATS in September the last couple of years.

Pittsburgh's competition in the AFC North may only go one deep, with nobody outside of Baltimore expected to contend. The Steelers (15-4, 11-8 ATS) have essentially the same personnel and are a safe bet to pick up right where they left off as 27-23 winners over Arizona in Super Bowl XLIII. Aside from an Achilles' scare in practice, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger enjoyed a quiet offseason, unlike 2006, and is primed to top last year's numbers (3,301 yards, 17 touchdowns, 15 interceptions) with a new second tier of receivers in Limas Sweed and Shaun McDonald (Lions) to go with veteran Hines Ward and Santonio "Super Bowl MVP" Holmes. Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in first game of a new season.

Roethlisberger passed for 331 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions versus the Titans last Dec. 21 in a game that saw Pittsburgh's top-ranked defense allow just one scoring drive of more than 40 yards. That came midway through the third quarter when Tennessee went 79 yards on 11 plays and took the lead for good on Chris Johnson's 21-yard touchdown run on fourth-and-inches.

Pittsburgh can expect a heavy dose of Johnson and LenDale White, but as the Titans showed in last year's meeting they won't hesitate to pass, as Collins went 20-for-29. That means Justin Gage will see plenty of action after totaling 104 yards last season against the Steelers defense. Look for the Titans to want to clock Big Ben just like last season, when they sacked him five times. Though Haynesworth will be missed, he didn’t play in last year’s matchup.

The Titans are six-point underdogs, with total of 35 at Bookmaker.com and are 16-6 ATS when catching points and are 8-2 UNDER in September.

If the opening game is to be joyous occasion in the Steel City, then the offensive line has to give Roethlisberger time to throw and not have him running for his life. Look for Pittsburgh to test Tennessee defense with deep shots to Sweed and rookie Mike Wallace. Defensively, the Steelers have to keep Johnson inside the tackles and prevent him from bouncing out wide. Pittsburgh is 39-18 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and has played OVER in seven straight openers.

In the last six meetings between these AFC squads, the OVER is 6-1. The excitement starts at 8:30 Eastern on NBC for the NFL lid-lifter and the previous year’s Super Bowl champions are 9-0 and 7-1-1 ATS in first game of a new season.


College and Pro Football Newsweekly contributed to this article.

Clemson at Georgia Tech -Underdog the Play?

This ACC encounter starts week two of the college football campaign and it should be special. Georgia Tech manhandled Jacksonville State 37-17, while Clemson covered the spread against Middle Tennessee State 37-14.

The Yellow Jackets are getting love in Southern circles with their 16 returning starters. Forget any talk about coach Paul Johnson’s triple option offense won’t work against better athletes. It’s not as if Johnson is recruiting the same level of player he could at Navy. Georgia Tech should be plenty explosive in its second year of this offense, with Josh Nesbitt running the show. The offensive backfield will be as good as any on the ACC and if Nesbitt becomes a better passer, watch out! The Jackets however are just 6-5 ATS as ACC home favorites the last three years.

Dabo Swinney got on the job training last season as interim head coach and his enthusiasm ignited Clemson to win four of last five regular season games. Coach Swinney hopes Kyle Parker steps up as his choice at quarterback. Parker has good arm and is fairly mobile, with his backup Willy Korn more elusive runner with weaker arm. If the offensive line produces as expected, running back C.J. Spiller should have huge season. Spiller is a constant home run threat, but will stick his helmet into the pile to pick up a few yards for a club that is 16-8 ATS as ACC single digit dog.

Bookmaker.com has Georgia Tech as 5.5-point favorite with total at 43. This will be a “Whiteout” contest for the Yellow Jackets, with fans in white t-shirts at Bobby Dodd Stadium. Nesbitt will have to do a better job of hanging onto the ball after a pair of fumbles last week. The Jackets are 16-5 ATS in the first two weeks of the season and 18-5 UNDER when playing on a Thursday. Clemson is 6-1 ATS as road underdogs and is 7-1 UNDER playing on the day before Friday.

This is a wacky series, with the underdog 17-3 against the spread. Clemson is in revenge spot, losing 21-17 at home as 2.5-point favorites last season in what was coach Swinney’s first game as Tigers coach. The road team is 7-3 ATS in this hotly contested series.

ESPN will televise this frantic ACC encounter, with kickoff set for around 7:45 Eastern.

Early Line Moves

Next year 3Daily Winners expects to have a football newsletter, but in the meantime, we will offer Free inside information. When we say “inside information” we mean finding material not commonly found on other websites and blogs. In other words we had to figure it out. One popular and profitable segment I’ve followed for years is Early Line Moves.

If you read the interview with Fezzik, the professional bettor from Las Vegas, he explains how sharp bettors like himself hit the action early, pounding on weak numbers. (You can find the interview, take a minute or two) Over the years I’ve followed this regularly and over 77 percent of the time, the various segments I looked after have shown a profit over the season.

I mentioned last week about not being comfortable with Week 1 numbers, since bookmakers release them so early, it’s hard to tell if the action is sharps or squares. The numbers at least in my opinion bore this out, with the sides 5-8 and the totals 2-3 in college football. All I can say is be careful with the NFL this week. I’m assuming the CFB figures will be more reliable this week. (For those not familiar with this, the numbers showing are opening figures and those found early in the week to establish differences)

College Sides
Wake Forest Pick to -3
Washington -18 to -21
Missouri -16.5 to -19.5
Tulsa -14.5 to -17.5
USC -4.5 to -7

College Totals
So. Carol/Georgia 41 to 38
UCLA/Tenn 48 to 45
SMU/UAB 58 to 61
Pitt/Navy 53.5 to 49
Rice/Tex. Tech 72 to 66
BG/ Misso 61 to 57
Kansas/UTEP 66 to 62.5
K-State/ULL 64.5 to 58.5

NFL Sides
Baltimore -8.5 to -13
Philadelphia +1 to -2
Cincy -1 to -4
Dallas -3 to -6
San Diego -7 to -9

NFL Totals
Dall/TB 42 to 39
Wash/NYG 39.5 to 37
Chic/GB 44 to 46.5

Buckeyes manhood to be called out as home underdog

These are unusual times in Columbus, Ohio, especially considering its football time. The Ohio State University football program has turned into Pepsi. Though the product sells, is well liked among most consumers, it still pales in comparison to Coca-Cola. (Florida and USC in this case) The Big Ten Conference was once the most feared in the land, but like the shifting population base of the country, the upper Midwest just isn’t like it used to be and has become the butt of jokes in every visible sports formats.

Ohio State has taken on a lot of grief in the latter part of this decade, after being the model everyone was trying to copy not that many seasons ago. Three trips to Arizona produced one national championship and a pair of Fiesta Bowl wins from 2003 to 2006. Since then, two disconcerting losses to the SEC in the BCS title games and a “pat on the head” effort that ended in defeat to Texas in Glendale, AZ earlier in 2009.

The Buckeyes were exposed last year also in Los Angeles, as the Men of Troy laid a 35-3 shellacking on Ohio State, who was out-gained 348 to 207, with USC pretty much running a victory lap the last 20 minutes. Midwesterners are a prideful bunch who enjoy a good time, however there is nothing fun about being embarrassed, as Ohio State players could only watch and seethe as joyful USC players took satisfaction in slaying another wanna-be.

If last year’s game was a September Rose Bowl, then this year’s is about pride, Ohio State pride. Though USC has more NFL-ready players on their roster than the Detroit Lions, the Buckeyes couldn’t be in a better spot unless the Trojans top 50 players came down with the swine flu this week.

Though the Trojans are highly ranked in part based on pedigree, they have potential signs of weakness. Start with the personnel, where USC only returned three defensive starters. Yes, the replacements might be as good or better in time, but last year’s Trojan defense was one of the best in the last 30 years as a group. This preseason, three starters have been lost and Aaron Corp, the quarterback who had won the job in the spring, missed enough time which allowed true freshman Matt Barkley to step forward.

Barkley is receiving more praise then former Golden Domer Ron Powles (where is Beano Cook?), with precious little game experience. Barkley might well be the next great NFL quarterback, but first he has to prove he’s the best USC field general this season and will have to so in hostile Ohio environment. Barkley will be behind one of the top three offensive lines in the college game and playing on a squad that thrives in the limelight with 13-3 and 12-4 ATS record against Top 10 teams since 2001.

USC also has two new coordinators, one on each side of the ball. While coach Pete Carroll has said all the right things about his two hand-picked replacements, are the players sold on the new guys?

Ohio State can upset USC and here is how. The Buckeyes have a very good defensive line and have to have a draw against the Trojans O-Line. They must make it uncomfortable for Barkley in the pocket and force him to make quick decisions. The Ohio State defensive backs have to challenge USC’s receivers and take away medium to long gains. Force USC to move the chains using up three downs at a time.

Sophomore sensation Terrelle Pryor has stated he wants the pressure of being “the man” and he’ll have to be. Tressel has been working with “Pistol” formations, giving Pryor more latitude to make decisions. He’ll have to throw accurately to make Carroll’s defense respect the pass. Ohio State has a retooled offensive line that was overwhelmed last year, that can’t happen again. Running backs Dan Herron and Brandon Saine have to hit the hole hard and fight for tough yards to keep Ohio State in reasonable down and distance numbers.

Bookmaker.com opened Ohio State at 4.5-point underdogs and the wagering public couldn’t get enough and quicker than you could dot the “I” in Ohio, they became seven point dogs based in large part on how they had to hold on against the Navy.

The Buckeyes will be a home underdog for just the fourth time in the last decade and face USC club that is 13-4 ATS against Big Ten conference opponents and 11-1 SU and ATS in initial road game of the season. Ohio State is 0-4 ATS against the Pac-10’s finest, having last hosted them in 1990, losing 35-26 as one-point dogs. As of this moment, this looks like one for ESPN Classic or a repeat of last year, we shall see Saturday night.

Wednesday's Best and Unreal Story

We are going to take 2-1 record for yesterday, because our system play was based on Tim Lincecum pitching and the line falling in certain parameters, which ultimately did not happen. Consider a bet with listed pitchers. And yes if the Giants had won I’d be writing the same thing. Have a Top Trend that is difficult to believe. The Best System today happens to be in article form, thus we’ll grab the next best one at 82.5 percent. Good Luck

What I learned today- A lot of people don’t like handicappers that are slimy by appearance and by their actions in telling half truths or outright lies. They pale in comparison to these slime balls. http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/zombie-bankers-haunt-wall-street.aspx

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) We’ve used this system a number of times this year and it keeps working. PLAY AGAINST road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 like Baltimore, after allowing 10 runs or more. Let the record show 104-22 mark, 82.5 percent the last five years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) This trend is actually in the article below and awfully hard to ignore. Jeff Suppan of the Brewers is 1-21 as an underdog of +175 to +250 in his career. (Team's Record)

Free Baseball Pick -3) Slick is 11-4 and picked up over 10 single units (for the sake of making this easier to understand) since last Saturday. His best play was on St. Louis, but his next best is on Arizona which is still open.

Paul Buck finished the weekend in college football with 6-3 record and 3Daily Winners was 3-1 since Saturday. Review our Guaranteed Pick packages and start winning.

StatFox Top Tips – The Platinum Sheet has terrific information

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Cards look to send Milwaukee into vorago

The St. Louis Cardinals are cruising towards their fourth Central Division title and have two legitimate starting pitchers capable of winning the Cy Young this season. In addition, the Cardinals have the best player in baseball in Albert Pujols and the savvy front office move that delivered Matt Holliday to the city with the Arch was genius. With Holliday in the lineup, the Cardinals (83-57, +13.1 units) have soared, with a Major League best record of 31-11.

Today, one of St. Louis’ top hurlers, Adam Wainwright (17-7, 2.68 ERA) will look to become the major’s first 18-game winner and contribute to the sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers (66-72, -12.6 units). Before his last outing in which he allowed six runs in five innings, Wainwright had pitched 13 consecutive times conceding two runs or less. The right-hander’s value goes up even higher when you consider he is 10-1 on the road (Cardinals 12-1 in all starts) making a great choice for the postseason. Lifetime, Wainwright is 4-3 against Milwaukee, however this season is 2-1 with a 0.77 ERA while allowing 14 hits in 23 1/3 innings against the Brew Crew.

Last year’s playoff euphoria has given way to frustration in Milwaukee, with a pitching staff unable to carry the load and too many feast or famine hitters in the lineup. The latter has been especially true with the Brewers having lost six of last eight, and totaling six hits or less in five of last six outings.

Jeff Suppan (6-8, 4.97) will be the Milwaukee starter and he’s 1-0 with 2.81 ERA since coming off the disabled list and he’s 7-3 in 14 starts against his old team.

Oddsmakers like those at DiamondSportsbook.com are unimpressed with Suppan’s recent pitching, looking at the bigger picture of how both teams are playing. They have installed St. Louis as -190 money line favorites, with the total at Ov8.5. Here is another very lucrative reason to think about the Cardinals today.

Play Against all underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250, a cold hitting team, batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a smoking starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.000 or less over his last five starts.

Since the 2005 season began, this has been one of the most reliable baseball systems you will find anywhere at 70-5 (that is correct) 93.3 percent. This has further been backed with the underdog a perfect 12-0 this year, when it comes to losing. If you still have even an inkling of doubt, take into consideration Wainwright and the Redbirds are 10-0 on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season and Suppan is 1-21 as an underdog of +175 to +250 in his career. (Team's Record)

Short Work Week Starts Today

Another 1-1 day, as Kansas City showed rare gumption in winning on Labor Day. Today we have four plays, two coming from the Left Coast Connection as Free plays. The Top Trend has a rock solid appearance and the Best System is SWEEEET at 58-4. Good Luck

What I saw yesterday- High entertainment value in Miami and Florida State last night, with two offenses that appear they could be potent most of the season. Along those same lines, both defenses lacked ability to cover receivers, develop consistent pressure on the opposing quarterback and too many run lanes were available in defensive lines which were masked with swift linebackers making tackles. I believe we’ll need to see both teams play a couple more games before a true read can be taken. On the glass is half full side, both looked much improved over last season at the same time.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like San Diego with a money line of +175 to +250, who are batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a broiling starting pitcher who has WHIP 1.000 or less over his last five starts. This system is similar to one we had the other day and is every bit as potent at 58-4, 93.5 percent, including perfect 10-0 in 2009.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Washington Nationals are 5-29 vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game on the season.

Free Baseball Pick -3) The LCC will have two unanimous MLB plays today, Texas in Game 1 from yesterday and Detroit.

Paul Buck finished the weekend in college football with 6-3 record and 3Daily Winners was 3-1 since Saturday. Review our Guaranteed Pick packages and start winning.

StatFox Top Tips – The Platinum Sheet

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Slump-busters needed for Philadelphia and Atlanta

An old baseball mythical term which has been around for years finds a couple of National League teams in need of its magic. The Philadelphia Phillies were just swept at Houston and Atlanta has lost five in a row. As opposed to other teams with losing streaks at present, both these teams are changing opponents, which might be enough to end this dismal spell. However, in other instances, “slump-busters” might include changing batting order, burning bats, wearing hats differently in the dugout or a few other more crude elements that can’t be mentioned here.

Philadelphia at Washington

The Phillies (77-58, +3.3 units) suffered a lost holiday weekend in Houston in being swept by the Astros in four game series for the first time in a decade. Philadelphia bats have taken a leave of absence, as Philly as scored almost 1.9 runs per game in last nine tries and hasn’t scored more than four runs in a single game since August 24, covering 13 ballgames. Only twice in their last 13 tries have they managed to get to double digit hits.

The Phillies will open up three games series in Washington (47-90, -32.4 units) and the Nationals have often been the perfect elixir for what ails any team. Washington would have nine game losing streak except for scoring three runs in the bottom of the ninth to come from behind and surprise Florida 5-4 Sunday. The Nationals are 15-42 having lost two of their last three games and are woebegone 2-14 with a day off this season.

Philadelphia will face John Lannon (8-10, 4.09 ERA) who is 0-5 with a 5.89 ERA in seven career starts against the Phillies. Ryan Howard and struggling teammates are 27-15 versus left-handed pitchers, scoring 5.3 runs per game in 2009. Bookmaker.com has the Phils as -140 money line favorites behind Pedro Martinez (3-0, 3.52), with a total at Un9. Lannon and the Nats are 12-29 in night games, while the Phillies are 12-4 with an on-base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games this season.

Atlanta at Houston

The Braves (70-67, -12.9 units) have played themselves out of wild card contention by losing five straight, the last three at home to Cincinnati scoring four runs against a Reds pitching staff ranked middle of the road at eighth in the National League in runs allowed. Atlanta travels to hot Houston (67-70, +2.4 units) club, who just wiped out Philadelphia four in a row. Atlanta has touched home plate 14 times in last five contests (2.8 RPG), while hitting well below the Mendoza-line as a team with .185 batting average.

We picked a real bad time to all not hit,” Chipper Jones told the Braves official Web site. “It just doesn’t seem like anybody is swinging the bat real well.” Jones is a big part of the offensive misdeeds, batting .121 in his last 20 games.

A change of venue could ignite Atlanta who lost 4-2 Sunday and they are 12-5 in road games after a loss by two runs or less this season. They will turn to Javier Vazquez (11-9, 3.18) who is 22-7 vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last two seasons. (Team's Record) The Braves are -140 money line favorites with total at Un8.5.

Houston will try to extend their winning streak to five coming off of three consecutive one-run wins over Philadelphia. Felipe Paulino (2-7, 6.62) will be given the pill, attempting to hold the slumping Braves bats in check and Houston is 20-9 at Minute Maid Park in the second half of the season.

Looking ahead in the rear view mirror

Coaching is often an overlooked aspect of sports betting. Sometimes how a coach prepares a team will have a direct impact on the outcome of a game. Oregon and Illinois were two examples of teams that looked extremely unprepared despite plenty of talk from the respective squads how they were going to dish out revenge.

New coach Chip Kelly’s team was impatient on offense and was completely befuddled by Boise State’s defense. No ability to run or pass in a game that shouldn’t have been as close as the final score.

Ron Zook is starting to look very much like he did in Florida, making Illinois an impossible wager. The Illini defense had a few big hits but was outclassed by a prepared Missouri offense. Juice Williams looked like he was past the expiration date and was totally ineffective. After Illinois State this week, the stumbling Illini are at Ohio State, host Penn State and at Michigan State. This team will win when it’s has no chance and lose in spectacular fashion, just like the “Zooker” teams did in Gainesville.

The Big Ten was 10-1, but 1-6 ATS. Ohio State was shaky, Wisconsin had to battle, Minnesota went to overtime with Syracuse and Iowa needed consecutive blocked field goal attempts to hold off FCS Northern Iowa.

At least the Big Ten won a number of games, the ACC was 4-6 and 1-4 ATS. Two of the spread losses were outright upsets as home favorites and Virginia fell at home 26-14 to William and Mary, (maybe they should have just played Mary) and Duke was rounded up by Richmond 24-16. About the only positive for either conference is league play should be competitive.

Syracuse played with more energy than anyone has seen in years and could have beaten Minnesota. Former Duke point guard Greg Paulus gave good accounting as starting Orangemen quarterback after not playing football for four years.

The Washington Huskies are not going to have a winning record; however they will be much improved, with a good offense led by quarterback Jake Locker. Definite underdog and back door potential with the Huskies.

Alabama could be VERY good come October. What’s so impressive about the Crimson Tide is they have players with large bodies and posteriors who can run and really smack people. The offensive line will only get better and they appear to have ability to wear down opponents in the fourth quarter. This team will be quickly overvalued.

Does Notre Dame FINALLY have something in the works? We’ll know more against improved Michigan, but the real tests will come later.

Tennessee and Auburn showed they might be better than expected, however sports bettors shouldn’t get too excited just yet. Both schools were playing at home in very positive environments that lent themselves to big opening games against inferior competition. Were the wins and covers impressive, yes, but much like the U.S. Open tennis tournament being played in New York, the Vols and Tigers just held serve, Let’s see when adversity strikes and see how they react.

Colorado coach Dan Hawkins challenged his team to think big in the off-season and said the goal was to win 10 games in 2009. That task just became a little tougher after being upset 23-17 as 13-point favorites in Boulder. The worst part was the Buffalos looked similar to other teams viewed this weekend; they just weren’t mentally prepared for first game of the season in trailing 17-0, which is inexcusable.

Games to watch this week include Notre Dame at Michigan to see which team is further ahead or possibly can North Carolina defeat Connecticut, as the Huskies were popular play against team last week at Ohio and are 33-17 (20-12-1 ATS) at home since 2003. South Carolina becomes a big opponent for Georgia who hasn’t lost first two games since 1996. East Carolina and West Virginia won’t receive a lot of national exposure, but is important contest for both teams. The Pirates want to show they are Top 25 team and the Mountaineers want to prove they are still the team to beat in the Big East.

Study the numbers

Those who wagered early were not particularly effective with 5-8 ATS record on the sides and 2-3 mark on totals that moved 2.5 or more points as of last Tuesday.

Favorites were 20-19 against the spread and double digit home favorites were 11-9 ATS. Home underdogs didn’t have much luck with 3-5 ATS record.

In studying the final numbers, games in which the final number moved three points or greater, the wagering public was 9-5 ATS on the sides and 6-4-1 on the totals. Overall, the Under was the play at press time with 22-17-1 record for week one.

Labor Day Offerings

The Washington Nationals of all teams came from behind in the bottom of the ninth, giving us official 1-1 record for the day. On Labor Day we have Best College Football System of the weekend at 86.2 percent. The Top Trend is a doozy and the Free Pick has arrived with with material. Good Luck

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the Hurricanes in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses vs team that had a winning record last season. This college football system is 25-4, 86.2 percent and has 1-0 record this weekend.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Kansas City Royals are 1-14 as a home underdog of +125 or more this season, losing by 3.3 runs per game.

Free Baseball Pick -3) The LCC has 7-0 in favor of the Texas Rangers tonight. Bonus- Rutgers has 75 percent of the LCC's action and Miami just over 63 percent.

Paul Buck is having 6-2 weekend in college football and has Big East Winner today. 3Daily Winners was 2-1 on Saturday and prefers one team in ACC matchup tonight on ESPN in our Guaranteed Picks.

Florida Fued Favors Tasty Underdog

This bitter Florida rivalry had gotten duller than Rachel Ray’s Food Network show “$40 a Day”, as both former national behemoths became medial teams. However, Miami and Florida State are headed back towards greater respectability and will play again on Labor Day, after two thrilling matchups the last couple of years.

Miami is 4-1 ATS at Tallahassee and has new coordinators on both sides of the ball to work with 16 returning starters. The Hurricanes will feature pro-style attack, with sophomore Jacory Harris running the show as solo, with Robert Marve a transfer. Graig Cooper leads a rushing attack that should be improved, with a greater commitment after averaging only 129 yards per game a season ago. This key area for Miami since they are 22-8 ATS in road games when they rush for 150 to 200 yards.

Defensively, a number of real solid players are available, though not the typical All-American studs normally seen on the Coral Gables campus. The Hurricanes were last in run defense in the ACC a year ago and defensive packs managed only two interceptions. Linebacker is the best position at the “U”, with Sean Spence the ringleader.

Most of the off-season talk on the Florida State campus has centered on legendary Bobby Bowden losing 14 wins in 2006-07 for rules infractions. As Florida State continues the fight to reinstate those victories, Bowden will work on something he can control, this year’s team.

The Seminoles regained their strength up front on offense, averaging 177 yards rushing per game in 2008. All five starters from that contingent are back and will be leaned on heavily, while new receivers are discovered for sophomore signal caller Christian Ponder. Last season, Ponder played like a talented freshman, showing glimpses of good and bad, he’ll be expected to improve if Florida State expects to be ACC Atlantic champs. On defense, coordinator Mickey Andrews, in his 26th season, will have work to do with just five starters back. How quickly Andrews can make this cohesive unit will set the tone.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Seminoles as six-point favorites with a total of 47. Florida State is only 12-19 ATS a ACC home favorite since 2001 and will be playing in Doak Campbell Stadium at well below capacity. The Canes are 6-3 ATS as conference road underdogs the last five years in this competitive series.

This Florida battle has been dominated by the underdog, covering eight of the last 10 times. That has usually been the road team, who is 8-3 ATS in these gatherings. Keep an eye on first team to score, with this squad emerging as straight up winner 80 percent of the time in last 20 encounters.

ESPN has this ACC opener starting at 8 Eastern.

Sunday Selections

I was thoroughly disgusted with how Twitter didn’t perform yesterday. Couldn’t load analysis consistently and had to try several times just to get one part in numerous times. After four hours, finally gave up, will look for another method this week. One thing I was disappointed in was 4-1 record in CFB over two days, with only Washington State letting us down, which wasn’t a real shocker.

Today its back to baseball and have Top Trend from Coors country. A dearth of best systems and went with the best I could find at 73.1 percent. Mike is sizzling and has Free MLB play. Good Luck

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road teams like Minnesota with a money line of -100 to -150, with a starting pitcher whose gives up seven or more hits a start vs a terrible starting pitcher who has ERA of 6.50 or higher over his last 10 starts. First time for this MLB system all season and it is 38-14 since 1997.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Jorge De La Rosa and the Rockies are 18-5 when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons winning by 1.9 runs per game.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Mike was 4-1 yesterday and will try his luck with Florida to wallop Washington.

Paul Buck hit both his plays here yesterday on Texas A&M and Auburn, while I missed on Illinois, but picked up winners on Cal and the Aggies from College Station. Check our Guaranteed Picks regularly.

Sunday Football Double Dip

Unless you live in the area, most people wouldn’t make the connection that both Sunday college football games are intense local meetings. Ole Miss and Memphis are separated by just 85 miles, while fans from Boulder and Fort Collins get their dander up when these Colorado universities collide. There is a clear morganatic relationship in these heated get-togethers, with the non-BCS schools always feeling they have something to prove. This should be good entertaining football action on Sunday of a long holiday weekend.

Ole Miss at Memphis

This will be the sixth straight time these teams will start a new campaign matched against one another. Ole Miss is sexy SEC West pick, led by QB Jevan Snead, who is legit Heisman candidate, with large groups of NFL scouts hanging around the Oxford campus.

Going from trendy underdog to flashy front-runner has sidetracked more than one team in the past and the Rebels know it according coach Houston Nutt, who is trying to downplay public expectations. “It’s the same attitude we had last year when nobody had us ranked,” Nutt said of his approach to Mississippi being ranked No.8.

Bookmaker.com has Ole Miss as 17.5-point favorites with total of 55. The Rebels are 46-10-2 SU against Memphis but just 3-8-1 ATS as road chalk since 2000. Mississippi is 29-11 ATS in non-SEC action.

Coach Tommy West has found success in Memphis, but wants to play in C-USA title game this season. That might be easier said than done with only 12 returning starters. Quarterback Arkelon Hall has targets to throw to in Carlos Singleton and Duke Calhoun, who matchup well with Rebels secondary. Memphis doesn’t have the strength or power to go toe-to-toe with the offensive or defensive lines with their neighbor to the South, however the underdog is 4-2 ATS and the home team is 6-2-1 ATS.

Pulling a massive upset would get people talking about a Memphis team that is 17-9 ATS as a home dog and 18-12-1 ATS vs. the SEC. ESPN will telecast this contest at 3:30 Eastern.

Colorado State at Colorado

Even if you include last year’s 38-17 drubbing by Colorado, the last seven meetings in this in-state rivalry have been decided by 6.5 points per game. It just turns out to be fun to watch these teams get after one another.

Colorado coach Dan Hawkins believes his team could compete for Big 12 North, if injured players return and offense gels. This is meaningful year for coach Hawkins, who is 13-24 (14-21 ATS) at Boulder and has talked about his team achieving 10 wins this campaign. The coach knows this is swing season for him and his club is 10.5-point favorite, with his son Cody needing big season to ease the pressure. If big time sophomore running Darrell Scott hits his stride, the Buffalos move to 15-7 ATS as double digit favorites.

Colorado State had surprising 7-6 campaign with a bowl victory and looks to build on solid season. That could be easier said than done without established quarterback and only five starters back on defense. If senior QB Grant Stucker can gain early confidence, he’ll be able to throw to some of the best wide receivers in the Mountain West Conference. Dating back to 1986, The Rams are 5-14 SU in this Rocky Mountain confrontation with a 12-7 ATS mark

This rivalry returns back to campus just for a year with Buffs 17-4 in home openers (0-7 ATS run). FSN will broadcast starting at 7 Eastern.