Two Big East teams in need of W

After 25 games, the only question remaining for Syracuse was would they be the top seed in the East Region when the NCAA bids come out in just over three weeks? Despite suffering just their second loss of the year this past Sunday, now they might not even be in first place in their conference this upcoming weekend with another defeat. And what about Georgetown, whose as reliable as Toyota these days. College basketball in February, the bettors dream and nightmare all rolled into one.

Maybe the Orangemen (24-2, 15-7 ATS) were due for a flat outing like they suffered at home to Louisville, losing 66-60 as seven-point favorites. Save about seven total minutes, Syracuse players looked like zombies, going through the motions.

They have played similar to this of late with 3-4 ATS mark, winning games in the last five minutes, until they finally got burned. The Orangemen can still play, inside or out and their 2-3 zone is the most active coach Jim Boeheim has had in years. With the tenacity of the Big East, fouls are inevitable and Syracuse has a bench, with Scoop Jardine, Kris Joseph and Mookie Jones in particular making immediate contributions for a team already loaded. The ‘Cuse is 13-5 ATS playing against a team with a winning record this season.

A closer look reveals Wesley Johnson doesn’t appear to be completely healthy from a couple of spills this month (10-35 shooting) and his game has lacked the explosiveness seen earlier. With opponents taking a wait and see attitude with Johnson, they’ve been shadowing Andy Rautins more and his shooting has been off and Syracuse guards have been less inclined to dump the ball down to the big guys in the paint. Add it up and team averaging 80.8 points per game, has scored 72 or less in four of last five.

Coach John Thompson III has tried to develop a bench, with no success. Yes, sophomore guard Jesse Clark continues to improve and Georgetown (18-6, 11-9 ATS) might well become a very treacherous club to play in March with Austin Freeman, Greg Monroe, Chris Wright the principle scorers. Clark would make the Hoyas almost impossible to guard, likely giving them at least three bonafide scorers each contest with a fourth possible almost any time.

The conundrum arises when two of guys are off their game, who does Thompson turn to. Of course he’s going to say his players know they have to play heavy minutes and it’s not a big deal. What are his options? Admit he could be a little less stern and have fewer players transfer or fess up his recruiting efforts haven’t been as good as other top level programs, he lives in Washington D.C. for goodness sake, why be completely honest when hardly anyone else in town is. Georgetown is 9-24 ATS at home after playing consecutive games as favorite.

Though the Hoyas haven’t won three in a row since Jan. 3, they haven’t lost two in a row either and are 5-0 and 4-1 ATS off a loss, returning home after being upset by Rutgers 71-68 as 10.5-point favorites. In fact, G-Town is sensational 8-0 SU after failing to cover with 6-1 ATS record.

Bookmaker.com has the Hoyas as two-point favorites for this Big East battle and Georgetown is 9-22 ATS in last 31 conference clashes and Syracuse 9-0 and 8-1 ATS away from the Carrier Dome this season.

These are two universities that helped make the Big East Conference nationally known in basketball and they have played oodles of memorable contests. The Jan. 25 meeting was noteworthy for its unusualness. The Hoyas opened up a 14-0 lead and slattern away the good fortune, being outscored 73-41 from that point forward.

This is part of ESPN2 Thursday Showcase, with the SU winner 14-2 ATS since 2000 in the regular season.

NBA Road Teams as Hot as Brooklyn Decker

While Phoenix is known as a great vacation spot other than the summer time and Utah is known for, well, being Utah, both basketball teams are heating up in what should be another scintillating run for eight playoff spots in the Western Conference. Both teams are in action tonight, on the road, seeking to keep the momentum building.

Jazz hitting all the right notes

The Jazz (33-19, 31-18-3 ATS) opened the second part of their schedule with a road win last night in Houston 104-95 and they will have three more games away from home on this trip. Utah has won 10 of 11 (8-2-1 ATS) and 14 of last 16 (11-2-3 ATS). Never regarded as superior visiting club, the Jazz are attempting to win their fifth consecutive road game for the first time in two years when they visit New Orleans (28-25, 26-27 ATS).

The Hornets are adjusting to life without superstar guard Chris Paul, who had surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee and is out a minimum of three more weeks. New Orleans, after losing three in a row, won two of last three before the break, covering all of them thanks to hot shooting, which hid defensive flaws. The Hornets are 9-1 ATS after three straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 47 percent or higher over the last two seasons.

Utah is playing outstanding team basketball and is 30-13 ATS after a game with 30 or more assists, which raised their record to 13-3 ATS in the last two February’s. This leads to the Jazz as 3.5-point favorite at DiamondSportsbook.com, with total of 201.5. New Orleans has won the only meeting between these teams this season in Utah, yet is 7-17 ATS when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last two seasons. This encounter starts just after 8:00 Eastern in local markets, with the Hornets 13-3 UNDER as a home underdog.

Farewell Amare?

The Phoenix Suns (32-22, 28-25-1 ATS) have been playing their best basketball since early November, on 6-1 SU and ATS roll off their impressive 109-95 win at Memphis yesterday. This was the second time the Suns have held an opponent under 40 percent shooting in this stretch of games; however the chemistry of this team is expected to be in flux.

Insider reports in Phoenix have contract talks between Amare Stoudemire and the Suns as wide apart as the Grand Canyon; fueling speculation a trade is imminent. Cleveland is still believed the most likely destination, though Miami is still in the mix. Charlotte’s name has been mentioned, however they have nothing the Suns would want or need, particularly since they sit at seventh seed presently, but just a couple of games out of moving up to fourth slot. As far as tonight, Phoenix is 13-5 ATS in road games after scoring 100 points or more five consecutive contests this year.

Dallas (32-21, 21-32 ATS) was lauded for acquiring Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood and DeShawn Stevenson from Washington in a seven-player deal, nonetheless this much upheaval changes team dynamics and it takes at least a little time to sort out players roles. How the Mavericks handle this transitional period will likely decide they playoff positioning.

After losing at Oklahoma City 99-86 on Tuesday, shooting a season 32.3 percent, Dallas now has as many losses as San Antonio (21) and could tumble from third seed to eighth with a losing streak. The Mavericks are 4-7 (2-9 ATS) in last 11 and are 2-12 ATS at home after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.

Dallas is a 4.5-point home favorite, for reasons unknown. The Mavs are undistinguished 15-9 at American Airlines Center and gut-wrenching (for backers) 5-19 (that’s true) against the spread. The total of 217.5 might be the most important number to consider, since Dallas is 0-10 ATS on home floor versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots a game this campaign. Dallas has flustered Phoenix, winning seven of last eight in Big D (4-3-1 ATS) including four in a row.

This showdown is on ESPN starting at 9 Eastern and the Suns are 8-3 ATS as underdogs of 4.5 or fewer points. The Stoudemire watch continues.

Hurry up Tuesday

This whole 2-1 thing is working out rather well for bankroll builders. Have to make this quick, running late I know. Kick ass Kyle has another hopefully Free Winner. The Top Trend is perfection and a 83.3 percent Big Ten system is runnin’. Good Luck

What I thought today- (From 11:30 MST) The NBA returns to complete the remainder of the regular season and rumors and trades are flying fast and furious as teams look to position themselves for playoff seedings and runs. NBA bettors will have to adjust quickly.

As for today, the time off can not only break the rhythm of a given team, but also the handicapper. Excessive time off can create doubt, which is shown by not one game having moved more than a point on side action. Totals have shown more movement with New Jersey at Charlotte up two from opening 185.5 and Clippers and Trailblazers up 2.5-points to 193.5.

Possibly another explanation is bettors are getting a late start or the numbers are sharp, since the only side move of note in college basketball betting is Murray State, moving from -25 to -27, not exactly desirable either way for a team that wins by 23.8 points per game at home and holds opponents to 38.4 shooting.

The college totals are showing action heading in both directions. Favorites Hofstra, Georgia State, Virginia Tech and Michigan have all had totals move upward, anywhere from 2.5 to four points.

Underdogs North Carolina and Cincinnati have seen their matchups drop at least two points from original number.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play on road favorites of 10 or more points like Michigan State in a game involving two average three point shooting teams (32-36.5 percent), with the Spartans a good ball handling team at 14.4 or less turnovers vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-17.5 TO) after 15 or more games on the year. Since 1997 this system is 25-5 ATS.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Indiana State is 8-0 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season, winning by 8.2 points per game.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Even though I’ve been doing almost as well as Kyle, he’s on cruise control lapping the field. He likes Georgia Tech big tonight.

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Does hot shooting matter (for wagering) in college hoops?

In the late 1990’s, a person I had known for a number years had told me about a method of betting college and professional basketball that he used as part of his way of picking games. His reasoning was sound; though I’d never taken the time to go on a fact finding mission to see if what he was saying was true.

Over the years I never forgot he told me and would use his methodology as one last piece of the wagering puzzle in looking at a given contest. Three years ago I delved into the NBA numbers and found his idea to be somewhat accurate, with one area more profitable than the other. With a bit more time to look into different elements with football fading away in the rearview mirror, decided to check his beliefs in college hoops.

My gambling friend said this – Bet on college basketball teams that shoot 55 to 59.9 percent in last game and wager against those that connect on 60 percent or better of shot attempts in the same circumstance.

His logic was this, if a team shot the ball extremely well, in the 55 to almost 60 percent range, this would have a positive carryover affect into the next encounter, regardless of the opponent. The team would be playing with extreme confidence and though they might not win, they ended up playing well enough to cover the spread.

Concerning teams shooting 60 percent or higher, that is almost a freakish occurrence, as teams made a large number of shots close the bucket or they just shot “lights out”. Since this was such an unusual event, invariably the basketball gods would punish this team and they would shoot below their average in the next contest and lose against the spread. Again, sound logic.
For every college basketball team that shoots 55 to 59.5 percent, just over a third of the time (37.3 percent) will any team shoot 60 percent or higher. I went thru 18 different conferences to see what kind of results I could find for this season. If a team made enough shots in either category but did not face an opponent that would yield a pointspread, I discounted that game. Otherwise, everything else mattered.

Starting with the 55-59.9 percent range, the results were hugely disappointing. Through yesterday, teams that converted this many shots were 138-83 SU, with 107-110-5 ATS record. Not only were these teams not a good bet, they weren’t even .500.

Have to admit to being shocked, since over the years as I stated earlier, I had used this as part of handicapping arsenal and believed it was somewhat beneficial. Not having the time to check back over several years does leave open questions, however thinking about it, because the diversity of college opponents is far more varied for any team compared to the NBA, I could at least reason why this was the end result.

A number of the results did reveal or at least cause a moment of betting reflection. The Big East is the biggest conference, thus they have the most number of games that fit the criteria and the winners were 18-6 and 12-10-2 ATS. The A-10 has 14 teams despite its name and they were third with 16 qualifiers at 9-7 and 7-9 ATS, which is a rather low win percentage considering the number of baskets per attempts. The Big 12 was second in volume of games at 14-4, with unimpressive 7-11 ATS mark.

Teams from the Big Ten were 12-4 and 10-6 ATS; with Horizon League squads having same exact spread record with 7-9 SU mark.

A few other aspects stood out and are noteworthy. The Colonial Athletic Conference and MAC are well-respected mid-majors so to speak, with 12 teams in each league, yet they have had only six and eight games that made this study. It is to be presumed these conferences don’t have the same talent level as so-called BCS conferences, yet once you get beyond non-conference play, they are matched up against similar competition. Just an observation.

St. Mary’s and Syracuse are 5-0 ATS and 7-0 ATS respectively after shooting 55 to 59.9 percent this season.

The next area was also a surprise on a couple of levels and though better for gamblers, not overwhelming.

It starts with teams shooting 60 percent or higher are 54-34 SU in next game, which is 61.3 percent. The lower winning percentage made sense given how they played the previous outing, yet the spread results were nothing better than fair (in my opinion) at 40-48 ATS, 45.4 percent.

Once again perception vs. reality is frequently different and while this is just one not completed college basketball season, these are the facts as I could find. Its fun to note the Pac-10 is having a down year and teams off a hot shooting night of 60 percent or better are 3-3 with 1-5 ATS record, more in line with my thinking.

We’ve all witnessed Georgetown’s ups and downs and they are 0-3 SU and ATS after bursting to 60 percent bubble this year.

The final conclusion is it’s not a bad idea to bet against teams after they shoot the ball extremely well and this could be particularly true if they are facing a solid defensive club. Otherwise, burning the nets doesn’t carry much weight in betting on next contest.

One final sad, yet mildly humorous note. I had not spoken to this individual in a few years since we both moved away from where we used to live and I called him to tell him about this article and research and before I could even give him all the results he blurted out “I haven’t used that in years for college buckets, doesn’t work to well these days”. Now I find out.

Another example of always trying to understand the ever changing world of sports betting.

Battle of Big Men in SEC Action

Kentucky’s second ranked basketball team is the tallest in the country and at any time they could play a NBA-sized frontline and often do. Four of their keys players are freshmen and from a purely talent standpoint only Syracuse might have more arguably, with Kansas right behind them. Though the Wildcats have been tripped up just once all season, they have not been to Starksville, where it is not unusual for Mississippi State (18-7, 11-8-1 ATS) to play beyond their ability when a top level team arrives in town.

Mississippi State’s offense may go up and like the stock market, but its defense delivers like UPS. Center Jarvis Varnado is a swatting machine near the bucket and has a real hunger for grabbing rebounds. The Bulldogs have been at the top of the SEC in fewest points allowed (62.6 points per game) nearly the entire season and would be a Top 25 team if coach Rick Stansbury could get reliable point guard play. Whether its regular starter Dee Bost or backups, too many forced plays and poor shot selection have contributed to Mississippi State losing six games by five points or less.

The Bulldogs defeated Auburn in overtime 85-75 in last contest and are 8-1 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season. They are tied with Arkansas at 6-4 for the SEC West lead and their offense is built around making long bombs. Mississippi State made 11 three’s balls against the Tigers for the win and they are proficient at home shooting the long ball with 39.7 percent marksmanship, converting on 10 of 26 attempts. With a defense that allows 36.8 percent shooting percentage and ability to score in bunches, it’s no wonder Mississippi State is 14-2 ATS against offensive clubs scoring 77 or points a game.

The Wildcats (24-1, 12-11 ATS) might not do everything right to please coach John Calipari, but they are awfully close. This team is dominated by freshmen who can play and they have grown as the season as progressed. That is not only a compliment to the players, but to Coach Cal who has impressed on them the importance of playing defense, holding opponents 37.6 percent shooting, by effectively cutting off the lane area. Though the Bulldogs are good rebounding team with a +4 in margin differential, Kentucky is one of the best in the country at +10. The Wildcats are 26-8 ATS after three straight games outrebounding opponent by six or more.

Kentucky will have to stand-up to three point barrage they will face. “They are going to shoot them whether you are there or not, you just have to make them hard,” Calipari said. “You have to understand what you’re playing against. You can’t fall asleep.” The Wildcats are 3-8 ATS off a spread win, including dropping last five.

Kentucky is three-point favorite at Bookmaker.com, with total of 143. The game features a potential unique matchup of big men, Varnado against DeMarcus Cousins. Varnado leads the SEC and ranks sixth nationally with 11.3 rebounds per game, and he’s second in NCAA history with 519 career blocked shots. Cousins’ has exceptional offensive skills in the paint, is an aggressive defender and can really run the court. “They’re two different kinds of players,” coach Calipari said. “One is going to block shots and be active and be quicker to the ball. The other is just a hard matchup for teams.” Kentucky is 14-5 UNDER after consecutive wins against conference rivals over the last three seasons.

This is the second game on Super Tuesday on ESPN and Mississippi State has won 12 in a row at Humphrey Coliseum since losing home opener (4-3-1 ATS) and they are 10-1 ATS versus teams making 48 percent of their shots since 2007-08 season. Big Blue has won four of last six in Starksville and is 17-8 ATS off a home win. Because the Bulldogs are not great at guard, John Wall could be the difference.

Keep in mind, the team with the higher three-point shooting percentage is 4-1 ATS.

NBA AT THE BREAK… Teams and Trends to Ponder

Some say the NBA is simply an acronym for Nothing But Aggravation. Others contend it’s merely a Nice Bankroll Additive. Whatever your take, there is no better time than the present – with Pro Basketball taking a time out for the All-Star break - to examine the condition of each team in the league at this stage of the season. From the surprise teams to the disappointments, the run to the playoffs is about to take off.

What we’ve seen thus far is some teams have excelled against foes that do not own a winning record, such as the Hawks (18-8 ATS) and the Kings (17-9-1 ATS), while others have struggled in games against lousy competition, such as the Mavericks (9-17 ATS), the Nets (8-16-1 ATS) and the Hornets (8-18 ATS).

On the flip, a handful of teams have risen to the occasion when squaring off against quality, winning opposition – teams like the Cavaliers (21-4 SU and 16-7-2 ATS), the Hornets 18-9 ATS) and the Thunder (19-9 ATS). The Wizards are biggest money burner in games against winning teams (7-14 ATS), season to date.

Here’s a quick look at some of the GOOD, BAD, and UGLY team trends on every team and how they have fared SU (Straight Up) and ATS (Against The Spread) this season in games played through the All-Star break. In addition, I also break down performance records for each team in games versus .500 or less and greater than .500 opponents this campaign. Do your homework now, and enjoy the rest of the season…

ATLANTA
Good: 12-2 ATS vs. .375 or less opp
Bad: 1-4 ATS as dog less than five points
Ugly: 0-3 ATS with no rest vs. division
Vs. .500 or less: 19-7 SU, 18-8 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 15-10 SU, 14-11 ATS

BOSTON
Good: 6-1-1 ATS pick or favorite 4 or less points
Bad: 1-7 ATS favorites 12 or more points
Ugly: 1-11 ATS home off loss
Vs. .500 or less: 23-6 SU, 10-19 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 9-12 SU, 9-11-1 ATS

CHICAGO
Good: 5-0-1 ATS vs. division opp off loss
Bad: 3-9 ATS away off SU and ATS loss
Ugly: 1-5 ATS off SU favorite loss
Vs. .500 or less: 13-12 SU, 10-13-2 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 12-14 SU, 14-12 ATS

CLEVELAND
Good: 8-0 SU and ATS vs. .750 or greater opp
Bad: 1-4 ATS home with no rest
Ugly: 0-3 SU and ATS vs. opp with 3+ days rest
Vs. .500 or less: 20-6 SU, 10-16 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 21-4 SU, 16-7-2 ATS

DALLAS
Good: 7-1 ATS away off loss
Bad: 3-16 ATS home vs. non-division opp
Ugly: 0-4 ATS off BB SU and ATS losses
Vs. .500 or less: 18-8 SU, 9-17 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 14-12 SU, 12-14 ATS

DENVER
Good: 7-0-1 ATS home vs opp off double-digit win
Bad: 1-6 ATS off SU dog win
Ugly: 0-4 ATS away vs. opp off SU dog win
Vs. .500 or less: 11-18 SU, 11-16-2 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 6-16 SU, 10-11-1 ATS

DETROIT
Good: 4-1-1 ATS vs. .250 or less opp
Bad: 4-14-2 ATS off ATS loss 4 or more points
Ugly: 0-5-1 ATS fav off SU and ATS loss
Vs. .500 or less: 11-18 SU, 11-16-2 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 6-16 SU, 10-11-1 ATS

GOLDEN STATE
Good: 7-1 ATS dog vs. unrested opp
Bad: 2-6 SU and ATS fav less 6 points
Ugly: 1-5 ATS off loss vs. opp of SU dog win
Vs. .500 or less: 10-15, 12-12-1 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 4-22 SU, 16-10 ATS

HOUSTON
Good: 3-0 ATS vs. opp with 3 more days rest
Bad: 2-9 ATS fav with revenge
Ugly: 0-5 ATS vs. non div opp off SU dog win
Vs. .500 or less: 18-8, 13-13 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 9-16 SU, 11-14 ATS

INDIANA
Good: 5-0 ATS double-digit dog
Bad: 1-5 ATS off loss vs div opp
Ugly: 1-7 ATS dog 3 less points
Vs. .500 or less: 14-16 SU, 13-17 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 4-18 SU, 9-13 ATS

LA CLIPPERS
Good: 5-1-1 ATS fav vs Eastern Conference
Bad: 1-6 ATS dog vs opp off double-digit win
Ugly: 0-7 ATS with rest vs. con opp off BB SU and ATS losses
Vs. .500 or less: 14-15 SU, 13-15-1 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 7-16 SU, 11-12 ATS

LA LAKERS
Good: 6-1 ATS away vs. opp off double-digit loss
Bad: 2-7-1 ATS fav 5 less points
Ugly: 1-6 ATS av vs opp off BB SU and ATS wins
Vs. .500 or less: 23-3 SU, 14-12 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 18-10 SU, 11-15-2 ATS

MEMPHIS
Good: 12-1 ATS off win vs. opp of loss
Bad: 3-8 ATS away off loss
Ugly: 0-5 ATS off loss vs opp off SU and ATS win
Vs. .500 or less: 12-7 SU, 11-7-1 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 14-18 SU, 16-16 ATS

MIAMI
Good: 10-2 ATS vs. less .400 opp
Bad: 1-5 ATS vs. opp off SU dog win
Ugly: 0-3 SU and ATS off 3 wins
Vs. .500 or less: 16-10 SU, 14-12 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 10-17 SU, 12-14-1 ATS

MILWAUKEE
Good: 7-1 ATS no rest vs unrested opp
Bad: 1-5 ATS off SU dog win vs. opp off win
Ugly: 0-3 ATS off 3-0 SU and ATS
Vs. .500 or less: 19-11 SU, 19-11 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 5-16 SU, 12-9 ATS

MINNESOTA
Good: 9-0 ATS dog less 4 points
Bad: 4-11 ATS off BB losses vs opp off loss
Ugly: 0-5 ATS vs unrested con opp
Vs. .500 or less: 8-20 SU, 15-13 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 5-20 SU, 13-12 ATS

NEW JERSEY
Good: 4-0 ATS double-digit div dog
Bad: 12-27-2 ATS vs. non div opp
Ugly: 0-3 SU and ATS fav
Vs. .500 or less: 4-21 SU, 8-16-1 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 0-27 SU, 11-15-1 ATS

NEW ORLEANS
Good: 10-2 ATS dog more 7 points
Bad: 2-10 ATS fav off win
Ugly: 0-9 ATS vs. less .300 opp
Vs. .500 or less: 15-11 SU, 8-18 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 13-14 SU, 18-9 ATS

NEW YORK
Good: 8-1 ATS off loss 14 more points
Bad: 1-5 ATS off double-digit win
Ugly: 1-6 ATS away with no rest
Vs. .500 or less: 14-18 SU, 14-17-1 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 5-14 SU, 9-10 ATS

OKLAHOMA CITY
Good: 14-1 ATS off SU and ATS loss
Bad: 2-6 ATS vs unrested opp
Ugly: 1-6 ATS off double-digit ATS win vs opp off BB wins
Vs. .500 or less: 16-7 SU, 13-10 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 14-14 SU, 19-9 ATS

ORLANDO
Good: 8-0 ATS vs. unrested opp off win
Bad: 1-5 ATS vs opp off BB SU and ATS losses
Ugly: 1-7 ATS home off SU and ATS win
Vs. .500 or less: 22-7 SU, 15-12-2 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 14-11 SU, 9-13-3 ATS

PHILADELPHIA
Good: 5-0 ATS dog more 10 points
Bad: 7-18 ATS home
Ugly: 1-8 ATS home dog
Vs. .500 or less: 13-17 SU, 12-18 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 7-15 SU, 11-11 ATS

PHOENIX
Good: 4-0 ATS away vs opp off BB SU and ATS losses
Bad: 2-7 ATS off win 18 more points
Ugly: 0-5-1 ATS with revenge vs. unrested opp
Vs. .500 or less: 17-9 SU, 13-13 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 14-13 SU, 14-12-1 ATS

PORTLAND
Good: 5-0 ATS no rest vs. opp of loss
Bad: 2-6-1 ATS off SU and ATS loss vs. opp off SU and ATS win
Ugly: 0-4 ATS off win vs. unrested opp
Vs. .500 or less: 18-9 SU, 14-12-1 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 13-15 SU, 15-12-1 ATS

SACRAMENTO
Good: 8-1 double-digit dog
Bad: 3-9 ATS vs. Eastern Conference opp off win
Ugly: 0-5 ATS away vs. opp off SU favorite loss
Vs. .500 or less: 15-12 SU, 17-9-1 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 3-22 SU, 10-14-1 ATS

SAN ANTONIO
Good: 5-1 ATS off double-digit win vs opp off BB wins
Bad: 2-5 ATS dog 2 more points
Ugly: 1-8 ATS off division
Vs. .500 or less: 20-8 SU, 15-13 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 10-13 SU, 10-13 ATS

TORONTO
Good: 8-2 ATS vs unrested opp
Bad: 3-9 ATS with no rest
Ugly: 1-7 ATS away off loss vs. non div opp
Vs. .500 or less: 21-10 SU, 17-14 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 8-13 SU, 10-11 ATS

UTAH
Good: 9-0 SU and ATS home vs unrested opp
Bad: 2-5 ATS vs. div opp off loss
Ugly: 0-5 ATS fav more 7 points vs div opp off loss
Vs. .500 or less: 17-7 SU, 14-10 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 15-12 SU, 17-8-2 ATS

WASHINGTON
Good: 4-1 ATS off win by less than 4 points
Bad: 1-6 ATS vs. .750 greater opp
Ugly: 1-10 ATS fav more 2 points
Vs. .500 or less: 11-18 SU, 11-15-3 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 6-15 SU, 7-14 ATS

Written by Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com.

Let's have fun on Monday - Winning that is

Take the old 2-1 day every day. Wouldn’t it be great to go 2-1 for a year and bet each day progressively! Have Big Monday system and Top Trend in action in separate games. The former is 82.4 percent and the latter is perfect. While not perfect, Kyle is damn close with the runs he’s on. His next top play is up. Good Luck

What I thought today- What’s not to like about New Mexico? The Lobos were one of the early surprise teams in the country starting 12-0. After a few early stumbles in the Mountain West Conference, New Mexico stabilized and has won nine in a row, including two very impressive road games at UNLV and Utah, raising their record to 23-3 and mostly importantly to all of us 16-8-1 ATS.

Baylor is 19-5 after their 64-62 win over Missouri Saturday. Watching the Bears, they do a lot of things well, which is why it is hard to understand why they have only covered two of their last six games. Tweety Carter and Ekpe Udah are special talents for Scott Drew’s team. Shot selection seems to be the biggest problem at winning time.

Duke is obviously the best team in a so-so ACC league, yet being such a public team, they are 10-3 ATS at home. With a 14-0 SU record, maybe winning by 27.6 points per game has something to do with.

Illinois played like a team on Sunday that ran out of gas playing one tough after another in the Big Ten and couldn’t muster the emotion needed for a focused and clearly superior Ohio State club.

Louisville has become one those teams you can’t trust to bet for or against. The Cardinals stood at 1-6 and 2-5 ATS in true road games after being ripped to shreds by St. John’s 74-55 as 5.5-point road favorites. You would figure they would play better at Syracuse since Rick Pitino is too good of coach. However, after the Orangemen took a lead in the final seven minutes, you had to believe Louisville would again find a way to lose on the road to the No.2 team in the country and instead they fought right back and pulled the upset. Are you watching Villanova?

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Free Basketball System -1) Play Against a favorite like Villanova after scoring 80 points or more in a win over a conference rival, against opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite. Since 2005, this dandy system is 28-6 ATS, 82.4 percent.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Kansas is 12-0 ATS when playing against teams with 60-80 percent win percentage after 15 or more games over the last two seasons, winning by 14.9 PPG.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Kyle was 3-0 yesterday, the dude is just freakin’ sick right now. He’s thinking Maryland mashes Virginia.

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Is Kansas Good Bet on the road as No.1?

When any team is ranked No.1 and takes to the road in conference action, they are a massive target. Kansas (24-1, 10-11-1 ATS) has been finding that out with regularity (2-2-1 ATS Big 12 roadies) and hits the pavement to College Station, looking to avoid the upset. The Jayhawks have a plethora of talent on its roster, but those blue jerseys bring out the best in their opponents, making the 17-8 ATS record against Big 12 combatants since last year all the greater an accomplishment.

Coach Bill Self won his 400th game Saturday night in less than 17 seasons, in non-cover over Iowa State 73-59. When asked about thoughts of joining the legends of coaching like Bobby Knight and Dean Smith who have over 800 wins, Self said this, “I don’t think there’s going to be a lot of guys who win 800 from this point forward. I think the business has changed enough where guys aren’t going to coach for as many years as they had.

Self’s Jayhawks are 9-3-1 ATS off a spread loss since last season.

The Aggies have enjoyed a genial campaign in 2009-10 at 18-6 and are tied for second place in the Big 12 with Kansas State at 7-3, nonetheless the schedule-maker back-loaded Texas A&M (12-8 ATS) with one toughie after another. This Big Monday matchup will test their endurance, after Saturday’s 67-65 winning conflict at Texas Tech. B.J. Holmes led the way with 18 points for Aggies club that has won six of seven, including winning and covering four in a row.

For senior guard Donald Sloan this is really meaningful and a “W” would punctuate a fine career. Reed Arena will be rocking with Texas A&M 16-0 at home (8-4 ATS) dating back to last year and averaging better than 1,300 fans over stated capacity this season.

Kansas is favored by seven points at DiamondSportsbook.com and is 18-6 ATS versus good teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a contest after 15 or more games over the last two seasons. The Jayhawks have won last six against Aggies, covering four of them. Texas A&M coach Mark Turgeon has his team feeling good about itself at 8-3 and 7-3 ATS after a cover and 6-3 ATS as an underdog this season.

This is the second game on Big Monday and Kansas is 17-5 ATS in last 22 Monday assignments.

Nova takes over Big East with win

Prior to the season, Villanova was expected to be strong contender for the Big East regular season title after their Final Four appearance from a year ago and many of their backcourt players returning. The Wildcats have been exceptional all season at 22-2 (16-7 ATS) and with Syracuse being upset yesterday, can take over sole possession of first place with a victory.

The key player for Villanova is Scottie Reynolds, who directs an offense that scores 85.4 points per game. Reynolds finds ways to involve all his teammates and rarely dominates the ball despite scoring 19 points a game, which is fourth in the Big East.

I don’t want it to always be, Scottie will get us going,” Villanova coach Jay Wright said. “But I’m glad we have that. That’s something I always have in the back of my mind.” The Wildcats handled Providence Saturday 92-81 in non-cover and is 16-6 ATS in home games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival.

Connecticut (14-11, 8-14-1 ATS) was also thought to be among those teams capable of contending for Big East title, but that plan never got off the table. The Huskies are 4-8 in league play and have lost five of last six, covering the spread just one time. Even the return of coach Jim Calhoun (out seven games with undisclosed illness) did nothing to lift the spirits of UConn players who shot a season low 34.6 percent in home loss to Cincinnati 60-48.

“I thought it was one of the worst performances I’ve had here at UConn in 24 years,” said Calhoun. “I’m really incredibly disappointed by the performance, and I’m embarrassed by it, quite frankly.” The Huskies are 5-5 and 2-7 ATS off a loss this season.

That doesn’t mean to sell Connecticut short however. Calhoun is a Hall of Fame coach. In much the same manner, Louisville was sickly at St. John’s, losing by 19 points this past Thursday and came immediately back to knock off No. 2 Syracuse on Sunday. It would not be a shock if the Huskies are ferocious with plenty of spunk tonight in Philadelphia.

DiamondSportsbook.com has UConn catching 9.5-points with total of 155.5. The Huskies are 9-4 ATS as road underdogs and 6-2 ATS off a loss by 10 or more points. Villanova on the other hand is 19-8 ATS playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last two seasons and has covered last seven of 10 as a favorite.

This is the opening game on Big Monday starting at 7:00 Eastern and the home teams has covered eight of last 10 meetings.

Valentine's Day lineup

If you happened to follow our plays yesterday, you did quite well with 3-0 or 2-0-1 ATS record depending on when you bet against Denver. With no great plays on sides in college hoops, found one on the totals side at 26-5. Kyle continues to romp and has Big 10 (11) play as his best bet. The Top Trend is heavily against one club in A-10 action. We’ll look to duplicate that success today. Good Luck

What I thought today- Even if you don’t like golf, the televised views of Pebble Beach this weekend are truly amazing. I was lucky enough to go to the tournament and play the course the day after the event and believe me, if you are a golfer, don’t worry about the price, it’s a once in a life time experience. The first five holes over at Spyglass are equally as amazing.

Here are two articles that are must reads about the Daytona 500 and the NBA All-Star game. (I had nothing to do with them)

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Free Basketball System-1) Play Over when the total is 119.5 or less, in a game involving two slow-down teams (55 or fewer shots a game) after 15+ games, with one team making 47 percent or more of their shots in three straight contests. The hot shooting team is UCLA and the system is 26-5, 83.9 percent since 1997.

Free Basketball Trend- 2) DuQuesne 1-10 ATS in home games after consecutive conference games over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Kyle was 8-3 on Saturday including his winner on Richmond. His top for today is Northwestern.

Time for another Super Saturday

When I was last able to fill this feature in, we had a 2-1 day. Today we venture into the Ohio Valley for Best System at 82 percent and smokin’ this season as well. The Top Trend is reverse perfect following one of the best home teams in the country on the road and Kyle of the LCC continues to kill it and will have his Top Play for FREE. Good Luck

What I thought today- I will occasionally whine like a baby about bad beats, however I just like to get it out of my system and not as upset as I come across from time to time. In order to meet required checks and balances in life, I will report I was convinced I was 0-2 last night turning off Pittsburgh game with under a minute, only to come back to turn off computer but has CBS CBB score page open and see the game was in 3OT with 50 seconds left. I quick flipped on the TV and watched the Panthers pull it out and I understand completely how lucky I was to win.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against favorites of 10 or more points like Murray State, who own winning percentage of 80 percent or higher and have won eight or more consecutive wins, playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%). In the previous five years this system is 50-11 ATS, 82 percent and is 7-1 this year.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Denver U. is 0-9 ATS in road games this season, losing by nine points per game.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Kyle continues building a nice bankroll in college hoops, 58.9 percent for the season and up +178.4 units and his top free play is Richmond.

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Time to get serious about wagering college basketball

What a weird weekend for television viewing in college hoops. With conference races heating up, to be taken seriously as college basketball bettor you have to know the surroundings. While ESPN for the most part does fine work in identify quality matchups, they first are concerned about ratings. And while a lot of people like to watch and wager, do really trite matchups like Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and N.C. State and North Carolina really hold anyone’s interest these days, unless you attended those universities, even during rivalry week. We’ll have information on many of the key games that are televised, however we also will inform readers about important contests like those in the Big Sky and Colonial Athletic Conferences, where something is at stake. Are you with me here! I thought so. Lines from Bookmaker.com.

Saturday, Feb. 13

Maryland at Duke (-10, 147.5)1:00E CBS

Before the season began, the general feeling was the ACC might be more competitive top to bottom than in years. Those beliefs have been prophetic and this will be a matchup that will help sort out the logjam. Maryland (16-6, 10-7 ATS) has nice collection of players, but for them to emerge victorious, forward Landon Milbourne and guard Greivis Vasquez have to be the Terps top point producers. Look for Duke to play rough and do some talking, since Vasquez can get off his game, flapping the lips and being too emotional. Maryland is 16-7 AT in road games when facing a team with a winning record past the midpoint of season and is 5-2 and 5-1 ATS in true away games this season.

Duke (20-4, 15-8 ATS) looked like a tired squad in loss to Georgetown at the end of January, playing four games in 10 days. Now this ACC clash will be their fourth in nine days, at least they will have the crowd support to spur them on. The Blue Devils could really use Kyle Singler to begin filling the bucket with greater regularity, since the team has become too dependent of Jon Scheyer to do everything. Singler has to hit medium and three-point shots to open up the lane for players in the paint, which in turn opens up jump shooters to have clearer looks. Duke is 8-1 ATS vs. good passing teams, averaging 16 or more assists a contest.

Maryland is 8-1 ATS in 2010 and Duke is 13-0 and 9-3 ATS at Cameron Indoor. What will happen, the outright winner is 13-0-1 ATS in last 14 encounters for the only teams with two ACC losses.

Missouri at Baylor (-4, 144.5) 1:45E Big 12 Network

The Tigers and Bears are looking to move up in the Big 12 standings and do battle in Baylor. Missouri’s style is to pressure the entire court, nonetheless that is nearly impossible to do unless they make shots, which sets up the press. A quick perusal of Mizzou’s season shows most losses have occurred on off-shooting outings. Make baskets and the Tigers (18-6, 10-8 ATS) are 13-5 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a game.

This is important contest for Baylor (18-5, 11-5 ATS), since they will either be favored or a short road underdog in next five Big 12 engagements. The Bears follow the lead of guard Tweety Carter, who can score or dish. The Baylor big people add more than expected and do nice work cleaning the glass. That point is meaningful since Missouri will force turnovers, making rebounding a must to control an aspect of the contest. The Bears are 22-9 AT against teams who make eight or more 3-point shots a game.

Baylor has covered last six meetings in Waco, winning four times.

Rhode Island at Temple (-4.5, 133) 4:00E Comcast

A glance at the A-10 standings shows this race is going down to final weekend to crown regular season champion, with seven teams having either two or three league losses. One of the matchups that will help determine the eventual outcome is this tilt. Rhode Island (19-4, 8-10-2 ATS) would make Al Davis smile, since all they do is win. That method of play makes the Rams a poor play at home and swell choice on the road as 8-2 and 6-2-2 ATS proves. On game by game basis, Rhode Island has a lot of answers to take down opposing clubs.

No. 21 Temple (19-5, 14-10 ATS) has put together an impressive body of work in 2009-10. Victories over Villanova, Siena and Virginia Tech, along with its strong play in the A-10 makes the Owls a hoot. All year Temple has been among the best teams in college basketball in fewest points allowed (57.6), yet is not deficient in scoring (65.0), like other comparable units. This is not a squib; the Owls are 32-13 ATS against conference opponents over the last three seasons.

Rhode Island tries to prevent season sweep, however is 2-9 and 4-7 ATS at the Liacouras Center, against a Temple team that is 10-1 and 7-4 ATS on its home court.

George Mason at Old Dominion (-13.5, 122.5)4:00E Comcast-DC

These two squads trail Northeastern by a game in the Colonial Conference at 13-3 and each will look to at least keep pace Saturday afternoon. George Mason (16-9, 10-11-1 ATS) was school record 10-1 in January (6-4-1 ATS) and has stumbled a couple of times this month at Georgia State and at Drexel. The Patriots are young team and they are about to find just how good they really are. With guard Cam Long their best player, George Mason is 6-2 ATS on Saturday’s.

Old Dominion (19-7, 8-13-1 ATS) was pasted by the Patriots 71-55 as six-point road favorites on Jan. 2, before anyone realized how good they might be. The Monarchs are built around playing solid defense, permitting a meager 55.2 points per game. ODU came together as a team when Kent Bazemore was paired with Darius James in the backcourt. Old Dominion is 12-0 at the Constant Convocation Center, winning by whopping 19.8 PPG, however is only 3-5-1 ATS.

Watch the underdog in this one, who is sporting 6-2 ATS mark

Memphis at Tulsa (-2.5, 132) 7:00E ESPN2

Memphis fans are finding out what it is like to no longer be elite. The Tigers have been clipped for a couple of C-USA losses, as Tigers’ fan jealously think of how John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins would have looked in Memphis blue. The Tigers (17-7, 6-13 ATS) are no longer privileged, going just seven deep and six players absorbing the majority of the minutes. Coach Josh Pastner knows what he will receive most nights from the backcourt, up front, not so much. Memphis is just 1-6 ATS against clubs with winning home record.

Tulsa (19-5, 7-13-1 ATS) has two exemplary players in guard Ben Uzoh and center Jerome Jordan and they are the only two to start every game this season. With Memphis finally vulnerable, the senior duo understands this is their time and they want to be the top dog of the league. The Golden Hurricane can board, leading the conference in rebound margin, but get very few easy baskets ranking last in creating turnovers. Tulsa still has other taxing affairs ahead, yet a win here breeds confidence for a team that is 12-3 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pick.

Both teams have two conference losses and trail once beaten UTEP. The loser could be out of C-USA contention and Memphis likes their chances since they have won last 10 of 11 (6-5 ATS), including last four visits to Tulsa, covering three times.

Northern Colorado at Weber State (-4.5, 148 ) 9:00E

In the Big Sky Conference, Northern Colorado (20-5, 11-11 ATS) attempts to catch Weber State (16-8, 12-8 ATS) for first place. Will Figures and Devon Beitzel are the Bears two leading scorers this team is at its best against quality competition with 8-3 ATS record vs. outfits with a winning record.

Weber State is at the head of the conference leaderboard, having won six of seven since losing at Northern Colorado. The Wildcats are trying to win their second straight regular-season conference championship which is meaningful since the regular-season champ plays host to the semifinals and championship game of the league tournament. A usual, Weber State is tyrant at home with 10-1 mark and 5-3 ATS record. They have covered 41 of last 61 home games.

Northern Colorado is the underdog and covered the spread last night for the first time since beating Weber State eight games ago.

Tennessee at Kentucky (-9.5, 147) 9:00E ESPN

You have to tip your cap to coach Bruce Pearl. While most coaches and players talk about overcoming adversity, which many people never quite grasp, this Tennessee (18-5, 9-11 ATS) club really has with earlier suspensions that rocked the team. It says a lot about the coach and players. Though basketball is a team game, each individual had to make conscious decision to played better, work harder and the basketball world marvels at what the Volunteers have been able to accomplish since the new year began. Pearl will need another trick up his sleeve at Kentucky; however the Vols are 6-3 ATS as road underdogs.

All the early discussion was how terrific guard John Wall was the best point guard since Jason Kidd coming into college. Wall has not disappointed anyone with his singular play, but as the season has worn on, center DeMarcus Cousins has turned into a double-double machine. He wants the ball when Kentucky (23-1, 11-11 ATS) needs a basket and as opposed to many 6’11 big guys, he’s got a good stroke from the free throw line. One of the most striking aspects of these two and fellow freshman Eric Bledsoe, they love to compete and when Big Blue is off a non-cover like what happened against Alabama the last time out, they are 20-8 ATS, including this group at 10-0 and 7-1 ATS.

The Wildcats have taken 10 of last 12 at Rupp Arena vs. the Vols, thou are 6-6 ATS.

Sunday, Feb. 14

Ohio State at Illinois (+1.5, 137) 1:00E CBS

This matchup has Big Ten Network written all over two weeks ago, instead it’s an indicator of who might emerge as conference champions. Illinois (17-8, 9-13-1 ATS) was NIT bound after losing three league games in a row in the middle of January. Nobody gave them much a chance, since they still had the meat of their schedule ahead, however three wins gave the team confidence, which were followed by upsets of Michigan State and Wisconsin and an overzealous Brent Musburger has Bruce Webber up for coach of the year with this turnaround. What Webber really did is punish bad behavior from various players by giving them splinter time and they have roared back. The Fighting Illini are 12-1 in Champaign and perfect 9-0 as home favorites, though 3-6 ATS.

Ohio State (19-6, 12-13 ATS) has won eight of nine (5-4 ATS) to crawl back into Big Ten chase. The return of Evan Turner has made this team complete and they are hell-bent on winning it all since Turner is likely to enter NBA Draft after the season. Turner’s ability to score allows William Buford and David Lighty to find more open shots. Illinois will also have to contend with center Dallas Lauderdale, who is a load in the low blocks. The Buckeyes are 3-7 ATS away from Columbus and Thad Matta coached teams are 6-17 ATS after making 20 percent from the three-point arc.

The Illini are 6-3 SU and ATS hosting Ohio State and swept them last season.

Louisville at Syracuse (-8, 150.5) 1:00E ESPN

Louisville (15-9, 7-12 ATS) has not met lowered expectations from a season ago, facing a slate loaded with landmines. The Cardinals have been on the short side of a number of road games in the Big East, however Rick Pitino isn’t about to lay all the blame on his players. “I’ve had it with the officiating (in the conference). That’s why I’m not going to say anymore. I’ve had it.”—Coach Pitino. He’ll hope the zebras won’t be an issue on Valentine’s Day, with his club 14-5 ATS in February games over the last three seasons.

Syracuse (24-1, 15-6 ATS) caught many prognosticators off guard in November, yet this club has methodically gone about its basketball business and keeps winning games. The Orangemen have suffered a couple of sleepy starts in recent weeks, but showed their talent and grit in overcoming Georgetown and DePaul. If Syracuse is really Final Four material, over the next month have to be less risky when handling the ball, trying to make too many ESPN highlight plays. Facing a pressing Louisville squad could be a step in the right direction for a team that is 13-5 ATS playing a team with a winning record this season.

The Orange is 2-5 and 1-5-1 ATS vs. the ‘Ville in last 12 years.

Backyard Brawl - Part 2

In ESPN’s endless pursuit to attract viewers 24/7, an extremely rare Big East Friday night affair is on tap. Two rivals with long history of hatred collide for second time in nine days, this time in Pittsburgh. Off home loss to Villanova 82-75 as 5.5-point, West Virginia opens two game road trip, facing the pumped-up Panthers.

For just the fifth time in 180 meetings and the second in a row, West Virginia and Pittsburgh meet as ranked teams. The great aspect about these two teams facing off is the overused expression “these two teams really don’t like is each other” is 100 percent accurate.

The fan incident that occurred in Morgantown, with things being thrown on the floor and Pittsburgh assistant coach being hit in the face with a coin, will only serve to heighten the tension as the Peterson Center, since West Virginia punished 70-51 on Feb. 3.

The fifth-ranked Mountaineers (19-4, 9-13 ATS) are led by forward Da’Sean Butler, whose been carrying the load. Butler continues to move up in every important school hoops record and his support group has playing back to early season level. Though Pittsburgh’s roster isn’t setup the same as Villanova, expect them to use some of the defensive elements the Wildcats sprung on West Virginia, like the triangle and two, which limited Butler to 2 for 12 shooting. Coach Bob Huggins crew has room for improvement and is 7-0 ATS versus teams averaging 53 or less shot a game.

No. 25 Pittsburgh’s offense tends to plod along, needing concerted effort from everyone. This was shown when the Panthers (18-6, 11-8-2 ATS) lost four of five and averaged 60.4 points per game a few weeks ago. Coach Jamie Dixon has preached to his team about picking up the tempo to find easier shots. The Panthers have, scoring 160 points combined in last two wins. This approach has also worked at the defensive end, where they have held last two opponents below 37 percent shooting and Pitt is 6-0 ATS in home games having won two of last three games the last two seasons.

This becomes important since Pittsburgh has been victimized by some Big East’s top scorers, not having an answer. The Panthers players have been slow in making proper adjustments if someone from the opposing team gets hot, either not creating enough on-ball pressure or making poor rotations. West Virginia has a few different players that can hot, thus making correct evaluation is tantamount for club that is 15-6 ATS at home after playing a game as favorite.

The intensity will be off the charts since it is a Friday night, with a 9:00 Eastern start (giving Pitt students time to fuel up) and hated rival in town off a loss. Pittsburgh is a two-point home underdog with total of 126.5 and is 13-5 ATS on their home floor against a team with a winning record. West Virginia expects a tough environment and coach Huggins will stress this is not the time to let one upset loss turn into two. However, the Mountaineers are 1-10 ATS and 7-0 UNDER after a combined score of 155 points or more.

Pittsburgh is 8-1 and 5-3-1 ATS in West Virginia’s last nine visits and 6-0 OVER revenging a road loss.

Last Chance for NBA Bettors

All but four NBA teams go into hibernation for a few days starting Thursday. The lucky(?) four clubs are part of the TNT Thursday night televised package and at least they know they will have something to play for after the All-Star break, unlike the New Jersey Nets. The first contest brings together the Eastern Conference finalists from last season and San Antonio will be off the road for brief reprieve from Rodeo Trip, after visiting Denver.

Cleveland seeks small measure of revenge

In sports were told every season and every team is different from year to year. Players are taught to let go of past failures or success, since what is happening this moment is what you are playing for, not what previously occurred. Fans and often sports bettors don’t have that acquired skill, they remember.

If Cleveland’s unassailable 12-game winning streak conjures up memories of the Cavaliers (42-11, 27-25-1 ATS) marching into the East Finals last season, that’s understandable. However, in search of No. 13, pardon those who wonder if this could be unlucky number since they held tickets on Cleveland to win series wager over Orlando last spring and saw those ducats become combustible.

“They’re coming into our building, and right now we’re the best team in the NBA,” LeBron James said Tuesday after beating New Jersey. “It’s going to be a fun one.” The Cavs are 7-5 ATS during this hot streak and have won 20 of last 21 contests played at Quicken Loans Arena (23-3 and 11-15 ATS on the season).

Cleveland believes they are better equipped this season to make the NBA Finals, having acquired Shaquille O’Neal, who was brought in largely because the Cavs had no answer for Dwight Howard in the playoffs last year. The Cavaliers come into tonight 14-2 ATS at home after two games converting 50 percent or more of their shots.

Orlando (36-17, 25-24-4 ATS) doesn’t arrive in Cleveland like the Washington Generals. The Magic have won 10 of 12, including last three in a row. They have done this playing great defense, permitting just one team to break the century mark against them. Orlando was on fire against Chicago last night and is 16-5 ATS after scoring 60 points or more in the first half of last game. The Magic’s confidence is growing as Vince Carter, who has suffered the worst slump of his career, has averaged 24.2 points in his last five games.

Cleveland is a 6.5-point favorite with total of 194 at Bookmaker.com and is deceiving 16-7 ATS facing a team with a winning record this year, as their average margin of victory is 8.5 points a game. Here is an odd stat for a top notch team; Orlando attempts more three point shots than free throws (27.9 vs. 27.3) and they arrive near Lake Erie 21-9 ATS as a road underdog over the last two seasons. The Magic lost earlier meeting at home to Cavs 102-93, nevertheless has split last six visits in Cleveland, covering five of them. Tipoff is just 8 Eastern.

Spurs might need lasso to contain Denver on Rodeo Trip

San Antonio (29-21, 24-25-1 ATS) is .500 after its first four games of annual road adventure, but both losses have come against teams lacking their stars. The Spurs didn’t have to see Brandon Roy or Kobe Bryant in uniform, yet failed to win or cover in either case. Richard Jefferson thought his coach had the answer.

“Coach (Gregg Popovich) said it best: ‘We’re playing soft.’ And that’s starting with me. I haven’t shot the ball well the last 10 or so games.” -Jefferson stated.

The Spurs won’t catch such a break tonight, as Carmelo Anthony is back for Denver and they are 2-10 ATS against Northwest Division opponents this season. Jefferson was brought in to add energy and wing player skills on the fast break; instead he’s averaging 12.1 points, his lowest since his rookie year. The Spurs are commonplace 14th in points scored and 12th in defensive field goal percentage, their highest figure since Tim Duncan’s rookie year (1997).

Denver (35-17, 24-25-3 ATS) has missed Anthony, just 4-3 in last seven outings, however is off best shooting night since Nov.17, as they destroyed Dallas 127-91, draining 60.8 percent from the field. With last offensive output, the Nuggets are 10-2 ATS after a combined score of 205 points or more in consecutive games this season.

Denver is a 5.5-point pick with total of 206 and is 23-4 (14-12 -1 ATS) at the Pepsi Center, winning by 10.2 PPG. The Nuggets are 43-24 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite since last year and are 18-8 OVER on their own floor after scoring 100 points or more three straight contests. San Antonio would like to end first leg of road trip on positive note, but are 15-29 ATS as a road underdog of six points or less since 2007. The Spurs are 9-1 UNDER as visitors after playing a road game this season.

Denver has won and covered three in a row over the Spurs, largely because they have outrebounded them by over 10 a game. This Western Conference conflict starts after preceding contest.

WCC Clash - Round 2

One of the most overused words in sports today is- adversity. The moment that struck everyone that this particular word was being taken too conveniently to describe too broad a subject matter was when Tom Brady said his New England Patriots has overcome a lot of “adversity” in putting together 18-0 record after his team had just won the 2008 AFC championship on the way to playing the New York Giants in the Super Bowl. As it turned out Brady did face real adversity the following season, blowing out his knee and coming back to play this past season.

Instead of adversity, let’s start a new word for sports speak, resiliency. Gonzaga (19-4, 11-8-1 ATS) started the season with two very good guards, a potentially outstanding freshman forward and their usual rugged schedule. The Bulldogs exceeded early season expectations and quickly grew as a team under the leadership of coach Mark Few and established they would still be the favorite in the West Coast Conference.

After plowing thru the first part of the WCC slate, at the end of January, Gonzaga trailed by 14 points in the second half to last place Santa Clara, before winning 71-64 as 12-point favorites. Two nights later, at San Francisco, no such luck as they lost to the Dons 81-77 to fall into first place tie with St. Mary’s.

The Zags didn’t take the defeat lightly and pounded Portland 76-49 at home next, but less than 48 hours later they had a date with Memphis at their place. It turns out this contest was the top play in most forums that day; play against Gonzaga with the five points by professionals and amateurs alike.

What focus the Bulldogs had lost, it was back like a HD picture and they upset Memphis 66-58. Seniors Matt Bouldin and Steven Gray exhibited leadership and dragged the younger players back to playing 40 minutes of basketball, which they did against the Tigers. Gonzaga is 10-0 and 7-2 ATS this season off a spread cover and showed ample resiliency.

Saint Mary’s (21-3, 16-6-1 ATS) has just one loss in the West Coast Conference and it was to Gonzaga 89-82, in which the team collectively felt they placed too much pressure on themselves to play perfectly. The Gaels have been buoyed by that fact and have also shown resiliency, as they have come right back and played the same kind of basketball they had all year, winning six straight (3-2-1 ATS). The St. Mary’s players, led by center Omar Samhan, know this is their chance to take control of WCC and they are 8-0 and 7-1 ATS in road games this season.

Bookmaker.com has the Gaels as six-point underdogs since they have lost 13 in a row at Gonzaga, though been competitive in covering six times. St. Mary’s is 10-2 and 9-3 ATS playing with three or more days rest and has to hope their three freshmen are more settled this time around. A loss sets up a very negative state of affair for the Gaels, who have to play Saturday against an improved Portland squad and one loss could easily turn into two.

Gonzaga has covered their last six contests vs. teams with .600 or better records and would love to see the athletic Elias Harris match his last effort against St. Mary’s where he scored 31 points. The Zags are often a top heavy home favorite and are 2-4 ATS at the McCarthey Athletic Center, in spite of 8-1 record. Since last season, they are 1-7 ATS at home playing teams with a winning record.

This WCC tilt is on ESPN2 starting at 8:00 Pacific and one factor every bettor has to think about is Gonzaga’s 66.1 free throw percentage, dead last in the conference for accuracy.

Heat and Suns look to increase temperatures

Dwayne Wade and his Heat teammates ended their five game losing streak last evening, in humbling Houston 99-66. They will seek just their third road win in 10 attempts in a place that has not hospitable to them. Meanwhile, the Phoenix Suns are playing their best basketball since the beginning of the season and are rested for opponent who is injured and off playing last night.

Miami (25-27 SU & ATS) had lost five in a row, and been beaten rather severally (9.6 points per game) and was determined to change their attitude around at home against the Rockets. The Heat turned up the heat on Houston, building a 56-31 halftime lead and never looked back. “Instead of feeling sorry for ourselves, we came in with the right mindset to work and try to get better,” coach Erik Spoelstra said.

To take positive momentum into the All-Star break, the Heat players will need a non-placet attitude about playing consecutive nights. Miami is 2-8 and 3-7 ATS playing with no rest and been bashed by 12.4 points a contest in this situation. The Heat are 3-12 ATS after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half over the last two seasons and head to a joint where success is tough to come by.

Miami has lost five in a row at Phillips Arena during the regular season and eight of nine if you include the playoffs in almost three seasons (3-6 ATS). Atlanta (33-17, 32-18 ATS) has the second best home record in the Eastern Conference at 21-5 and the finest spread record in the NBA at 18-8 ATS. The Hawks have captured nine of last 10 (7-3 ATS) and are 15-5 ATS on home floor after playing three consecutive games as favorite.

The Heat is a seven-point road underdog at DiamondSportsbook.com, with a total of 191 and is 17-34 ATS off a home win since 2007. Atlanta on the other hand is 15-6 ATS overall and 10-2 OVER in a home game facing a team with a losing record this season.

This doesn’t look like a crucial contest for Phoenix (31-21, 27-24-1 ATS), however it is important for the following reasons. The Suns five game winning streak has restored the club’s confidence, especially with the last four victories coming on the road. A sixth straight W might cool talk of trading All-Star center Amare Stoudemire, whose averaged 27.8 points and 12.3 rebounds in those four road triumphs.

Phoenix has gone from a low Western Conference seed to now with visions of moving up to fourth slot if they continue with big second half. Besides trying to earn another win, the Suns will begin playing their final 29 games well-rested, with this being their only contest in 11 day period. Phoenix won and covered at Sacramento last Friday 114-102 and is 12-4 ATS after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points.

Conversely, Portland (30-24, 29-24-1 ATS) can’t get to break quick enough. The Trailblazers have been injury-plagued again and have missed the heart and soul of their team, Brandon Roy. Portland is 4-7 (7-4 ATS) in Roy’s absence and though Jerryd Bayless filled in admirable for a time, averaging 14 points per game, he’s down to 6.5 PPG in last two tries and the Blazers have scored 82 and 77 points in last two games played at home. Coach Nate McMillan’s team is 47-70 ATS playing eight or more games in 14 days.

The Suns are eight-point home chalk, with total of 210.5 and they are 12-2 ATS after playing a game as a road favorite and 9-0 OVER at home off two or more consecutive road wins. Portland is 17-8 ATS versus teams who make six or more 3-point shots a game and 12-3 OVER as a road underdog this season.

Tuesday's Top Tips

Got clipped for 1-2 day as the LCC members took it in the shorts on West Virginia. Kyle didn’t play that contest and has enjoyed a terrific season and gives out his top play for Free. The Top Trend is in the NBA following a Southeast Division teams and the Best System is a Super Tuesday tilt at 26-5 ATS. Good Luck

What I found today- (As of 11:30 MST) Let’s be honest, last night’s biggest Monday was a big disappointment for viewers, unless you had Villanova and Kansas. Let’s hope that Super Tuesday has more to offer. College basketball bettors are jumping all over Wisconsin at home against Illinois squad off emotional win over Michigan State Saturday night, moving them from opening -7 to -9.5.

Wake Forest is receiving almost the same treatment, being taken from -4 to -6 at home, however Boston College forward Joe Trapani is doubtful.

College hoops bettors also see two totals going higher than opening numbers. The MAC matchup of Akron and Central Michigan has risen from 128 to 130.5 and in the battle of saints; St. Louis and St. Joseph opened at 126.5 and is now 129.

The NBA is relatively quiet, with Memphis moving from one-point home favorite to underdog; however that could well be a Pick by tipoff.

Much more action on the totals side in the NBA, with the Jazz and Clippers pounded hard on the overnight line, taken from 198.5 to 201 this morning and still trending upward to 202. Though many angles support Chicago and Indiana falling below the number, this total has gone from 202 to 205 with heavy wagering. Lastly, Sac-Town and New York began at 212.5 and resides three points higher at present.

Vancouver in the midst of unreal 14 consecutive road games because of the Olympics and are a -145 money line road choice after opening at -130 against Tampa Bay.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play On home teams as a favorite or pick like Vanderbilt off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite against opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more. Since 2005 this hoops system is 26-5 ATS, 83.9 percent.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) The Washington Loaded Guns are 2-13 ATS in a road game where the total is between 185 and 189.5 points over the last three seasons losing by better than 15 points per game.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Kyle building a nice bankroll in college hoops, 58.7 percent for the season, up over 175 units and likes Colorado State in the MWC.

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Rivalry Week lives up to billing tonight

For the most part, this made for cable sports broadcasting concept work well putting on a variety of top line games to watch and wager on. The situations are presumed to work and sometimes the schedule and prior events bring added importance to these matchups. It’s a battle of Tennessee when Vandy hosts the Volunteers in Nashville and the Big Ten has four of its top five teams in action in extremely important conference clashes. It promises to be quite a Tuesday for Rivalry Week.

Volunteer State Scuffle

Vanderbilt and Tennessee are positioned one game behind Kentucky in the SEC East and the winner will be no worse off at the completion of this conflict. Vanderbilt (17-5, 10-9 ATS) blew a golden opportunity Saturday to stay tied with the Wildcats falling at last place Georgia 72-58 as 4.5-point favorites. The Commodores shot 32.8 percent from the field (6-23 from 3’s) and did a real poor job defensively as the Bulldogs shot 53.2 percent and had nearly as many assists as baskets. Vandy will have to be much more efficient at home since they are 5-13-1 ATS off a SU loss.

Tennessee (18-4, 9-10 ATS) continues to confound, winners of three in a row after suffering a pair of SEC losses, one of which was to Vanderbilt. Wayne Chism is off a career high 30 points against South Carolina and he needs to be a defensive stalwart on the road. The Vols are just 2-5 ATS in last seven conference games.

The Volunteers are 13-5-1 ATS in last 19 battles, including 7-2 ATS at Vandy and are 3.5-point road underdogs at Bookmaker.com. This contest is on ESPN at 7 Eastern.

State Line Collision

Illinois and Wisconsin really don’t have much of a rivalry except for those that live on either side of the border between the two states. Folks south of the border see Wisconsin as nice quiet place to visit for vacations and those from the Badger State have little use for “those Flat-landers”. The Kohl Center will be no vacation spot for coach Bruce Pearl’s club, who is off its signature win of the season against Michigan State 78-73. The Fighting Illini (16-8, 8-13-1 ATS) has won four in a row and is in three-way tie for second place, one game behind Michigan State, however they are only 2-7-1 ATS off a cover since last season.

The Badgers (18-5, 13-8 ATS) have just taken care of both Michigan schools and return home where they are 13-0 and 8-3 ATS this season. Wisconsin is receiving fine performances Keaton Nankivil and Jordan Taylor, both who have raised their play since Jon Leuer was injured and coach Bo Ryan has developed a little depth with forward Ryan Evans and guard Rob Wilson making solid contributions. Off their win and cover at Ann Arbor, Wisconsin is 10-2 and 7-3 ATS after covering the oddsmakers number.

Wisconsin is a 9.5-point favorite and is 3-0-1 ATS the last four times Illinois has visited and the Under is 4-1 in the Mad City. This encounter is on the Big Ten Network at 7 Eastern.

Spartans in survival mode

Michigan State (19-5, 8-15 ATS) had kept winning, yet aesthetically was far from pleasing in starting Big Ten play 9-0. Among the reasons have been Raymar Morgan hasn’t always played with complete effort and is Casper the Ghost on the floor at times, particularly when foul problems arrive. Sophomore forward Delvon Roe continues to struggle, which is why sixth man Draymond Green continues to see heavy minutes. The Spartans were blasted by the Badgers for their first conference loss and with injured Kalin Lucas on the sidelines, could not match baskets with improbable Illinois club. Lucas’ status is still up in the air for tonight and it is time for these other players to assertive themselves, since Purdue is in town and their mindset is aggressive. Sparty is 33-14 ATS when they grab more than 45 rebounds.

It seems odd a Top 20 team would still be tinkering with main players in February, yet this is exactly what coach Matt Painter has been doing. A few Purdue (19-3, 10-12 ATS) bench players and occasionally starters have been more erratic than the Real Housewives of Orange Country. Nobody would prefer to have certain individuals step up more than Painter, with eight Big Ten games on the docket. Sophomore point guard Lewis Jackson has played 41 total minutes in three games since returning from a broken left foot that sidelined him and some of the rust is starting to come off which would help since the Boilermakers are 4-14 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points.

First place Michigan State is favored by 2.5points and is 9-1 and 7-3 ATS at the Breslin Center vs. Purdue with 6-2 UNDER mark. Game time will be just after 9 Eastern on ESPN.

The NBA is TOTALLY Cool on Tuesday

Tonight in professional basketball, the focus is on checking out the latest trend totals for a Tuesday evening. More than few sharp bettors will tell whoever is listening that the best way to beat the NBA is to play totals, with the numbers often more difficult to beat on side action. Here are totals aspects to consider tonight.

Less than two weeks ago, who didn’t want to play the Minnesota Timberwolves, since a relatively easy victory awaited any team that put forth the effort. Like grandma using the “clapper”, the T-Wolves have taken on juggernaut status like turning on a light switch. Minnesota’s unlikely uprising has coincided with putting the ball in the basket, shooting 50 percent or better in four consecutive games in which they have won and covered. The Timberwolves are on a 6-1 OVER run and as they head to Philadelphia and Minny is 16-9 OVER on the road this season. Bookmaker.com is producing a 205.5 figure on this matchup and Minnesota is 10-2 OVER in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 this season.

Any game Indiana is involved in just has the feel of an Over. The Pacers are 25th in points allowed at 104 per game and are average offensive at 99.1 PPG. Oddsmakers have had a good read on Indiana most of the season in the totals category, since they are 29-21-1 UNDER for the year. The Pacers are a 1.5-point home favorite against Chicago tonight with total of 203.5 and are 10-2 UNDER as a home favorite of six points or less this season. This Central Division contest also shows the Bulls leaning one way, as they are is 8-1 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200 this campaign.

Those trying to sell Sacramento and New York as a defensive conflict are laying out the galimatias on sports bettors. The total is 212.5, which is the lowest in three previous meetings between these teams, all that went Under the number. Even with this change of events, eight of the last dozen games between these mediocre teams have gone OVER and the Knicks are 13-3 OVER in February games since last year. However, maybe those setting the numbers know something. The Kings are on a three-game Eastern swing, having lost six in a row and are 11-1 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games. New York allowed 74 points in the first half of last contest to the Cavaliers, but came back to cover in loss at Cleveland. The Knickerbockers are 10-1 UNDER after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half over the last three seasons. Maybe this East vs West affair isn’t as obvious as it looks.

The Utah Jazz have won eight in a row and 12 of 13 to move within two games of division leading Denver. Utah’s offense has been incredibly effective in this stretch, averaging 110.7 points per game and they are 9-4 OVER. The Jazz defeated Denver 116-106 and is 13-4 OVER in road games after scoring 110 points or more. The Clippers can’t possibly keep up with Utah in high scoring tilt and are 17-7 UNDER at the Staples Center this season. Los Angeles lost at Utah in their third game of the season by 13 points and is 9-1 UNDER in home games revenging a road loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more this season. Oddsmakers opened this encounter at 198.5 and NBA totals players have hit it hard, raising it three points.

The Day After

Officially took a 1-1 day on Super Bowl Sunday and we’ll search for better results the day after. Sort of a slow day on Monday, thus the Best System around happens to be on the NHL at 32-6. The Top Trend and Free Pick have a decided view point, see what you think. Good Luck

What I’m thinking today- Congratulations to the New Orleans Saints for winning the first ever Super Bowl and the city’s first ever championship. The most striking aspect of the game was Sean Payton’s ability to be himself. Since becoming a head coach, he’s always been a risk taker and it worked for him again in Miami.

Going for the fourth down and not making it near the end of the second quarter and still being able to come away with three points to get the score to 10-6. The onside kick was a decisive play, that just as easily could have gone the other way (imagine the outcry had the Colts gotten the ball and score to take the lead to 17-6). Finally, the challenge that was reversed to give New Orleans a touchdown lead, which brought into question how the rule actually reads. Three decisions that could just as easily worked against the Saints, but if you are destined to win a Super Bowl, those thinks go your way.

Kudos to Drew Brees, 29 for 32 over final three quarters, as New Orleans literally took what Indianapolis gave them, with eight different receivers reading the Colts zone and running to area and coming back to ball for pitch and catch completions. This is the same Brees San Diego didn’t believe had the ability to win a championship with. The Chargers were probably right, it would have never happened in San Diego.

Gregg Williams’ defense was burned for 10 quick points and switched from 3-4 to 3-3-5, which created more exotic looks and made it tougher for Peyton Manning to be consistent. This defense shuffle ultimately set up the game’s winning Pick Six for the Saints.

The Dwight Freeney injury was a big deal since he was unable to use spin move and the Saints seldom had to double him, particularly in the final 30 minutes after his ankle stiffened up. In a world where instant coffee isn’t fast enough, Peyton Manning went from one of the all-time greats before the game to 9-9 in the post-season immediately after its conclusion by the talking heads.

Early reports are this might be the most watched Super Bowl ever and one of the most wagered on. Because so many books had exposure to the New Orleans on the money line, they either will show a slight loss or profit when everything is tabulated.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Hockey System -1) Play on any team against the money line like Phoenix, off a blowout loss by three goals or more to a division rival against opponent off consecutive road losses by two goals or more. The pucks system is 32-6, 84.2 percent.

Free Basketball Trends - 2) Fairfield is 0-8 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points over the last two years.

Free Basketball Pick -3) The LCC is solidly behind West Virginia to cover tonight with betting members 11-0 in their favor.

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Holy Crap! This truly is a Big Monday!

ESPN viewers have suffered a visual assault this past week promoting tonight’s games and rivalry week in general, yet the matchups from the Big East and Big 12 are exemplary. Negative thinkers may believe Villanova and Texas losing on Saturday takes away from the meaningfulness of these contests; however this college basketball writer and sports bettor chooses to think differently, instead it creates even greater urgency for the Wildcats and Longhorns to play their best and prevail. Football may be history for another season, but what a way to kickoff the off-season!

Villanova at West Virginia 7:00E

Villanova (20-2, 15-6 ATS) completes the gruesome task of two games in three days on the Big East conference road. The Wildcats started their game at Georgetown like many cars around Washington D.C. area Saturday, stuck with no place to go in losing 103-90. Nova ran into a focused Hoyas club off a loss to South Florida, as they shot 56 percent from the field, went 8 of 13 from beyond the arc and hit 12 of 13 free throws before halftime in building 50-31 lead. Coach Jay Wright’s squad did more than fair share to contribute to first conference loss, committing 16 turnovers over the opening 20 minutes.

“That was not one of our better performances, but you’ve got to give Georgetown most of the credit. They jumped on us,” coach Wright said. The Wildcats have won and covered both their games this season with one day between contests and is 18-6 ATS playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last two seasons.

West Virginia (19-3, 9-12 ATS) is in second place, one game behind Villanova and Syracuse and played Saturday in a strange contest even for them. St. John’s was a popular home favorite among sports handicappers receiving 7.5-points with the Mountaineers in look-ahead situation. It certainly seemed like a smart wager with the Red Storm up 16-points in the first half and leading 33-22 at halftime. Coach Bob Huggins lit into his team and six minutes in the second half, they went on 16-0 run on the way to a 57-27 final 20 minutes, for the win and cover.

With a six-game winning streak (4-2 ATS) the Mountaineers are getting their house in order. Devin Ebanks is scoring better, Truck Bryant has regained his shooting eye and though Kevin Jones has been slightly off, he kills opposing teams with his assertive offensive rebounding, adding points in that manner. Da’Sean Butler is West Virginia brightest star and is playing like it. The bottom line, coach Bob Huggins is starting to see the team that started 11-0, albeit, against stiffer competition these days and his club is 10-4 ATS in February.

This has all the makings of a real Big East physical war in which the basketball won’t be pretty, but entertaining nevertheless. DiamondSportsbook.com has West Virginia as five-point favorite with total of 150 and they are 4-1 SU and ATS the last five times Nova came calling.

Villanova is 10-4 ATS facing clubs with winning records and is 5-2 SU and on the road this campaign. The Mountaineers are 11-1 and 4-7 ATS at home and university officials hope the only thing the fans bring is a full throat to scream positively for their team.

Kansas at Texas 9:00E

Studying tape of Texas (19-4, 9-10 ATS) early in the season, the most discernable difference is defensive on-the-ball pressure. The Longhorns played with greater enthusiasm in the first part of the year and have to rekindle that feeling, especially against a team like No. 1 Kansas. The 80-71 loss at Oklahoma as a touchdown favorite was the lowest point of the season for a club that has lost four of six and covered the spread once since Dec.22 (1-9 ATS).

Oklahoma deserved credit for making nine 3-point bombs in the first half, but a hand up or denial defense would have helped. According to Orangebloods.com, Texas missed anywhere from 8 to 17 layups against a second-rate Sooners frontline and the free throw shooting was hysterical if it wasn’t so sad (10 of 27).

Texas is at the top of their game when the points are distributed. Damion James, Avery Bradley and for the most part Dexter Pittman hit their averages, but when Justin Mason, Dogus Balbay, Gary Johnson and J’Covan Brown are at or near double digits, Texas is that much better. The Horns are 31-18 ATS at home against offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a contest.

After suffering brief slump caused by internal and external forces, center Cole Aldrich is back and Kansas (22-1, 9-10-1 ATS) is back on track. The big man is exhibiting many of the qualities why he is being compared to former NBA great Kevin McHale. His presence along with a smokin’ hot Marcus Morris, gives the Jayhawks power in the paint, matched with devastating perimeter game. Kansas plays the 94-foot game led by PG Sherron Collins and the chemistry issue that manifested itself is to behind this team. The Jayhawks are 11-3 ATS vs. clubs outscoring their opponents by eight points a contest after 15 or games on the year.

It’s not official, but if Texas can’t knock off top-ranked Kansas in Austin, their season might be over, trying to be elite club. Both teams are Big Monday winners, with the Longhorns 23-9 ATS and the Jayhawks 16-5 ATS to start another work week.

Kansas is a 1.5-point road favorite and the straight up winner is 8-2 ATS in last 10 meetings, including three in a row.

Top NBA Monday Systems

The New Orleans Hornets probably wish they were at home tonight to be part of the excitement that has engulfed the Crescent City. Instead, they are on the road in Orlando and are part of an extremely light schedule that has just three games to start the week heading into the All-Star break.

New Orleans (+8.5, 194) at Orlando

Normally, when a team like the Magic has a winning percentage of 60 to 75 percent and has played under the total by 30 or more points in last five contests and their next game has a total of 190 to 199.5, the Under is a safe play at 74-45 since 2005. However, this season we have seen a reversal, with this very system 10-4 Over in 2009-10.

San Antonio (+3, 194) at L.A. Lakers

In the last three seasons, nine of the 12 matchups between these teams have gone under the total. The Lakers will be playing their playing ninth game in two weeks and the Spurs their third road game in five days. When conceivably tired teams meet in these circumstances they are 49-19 UNDER the last 14 years.

Dallas (-4, 218) at Golden State

The Warriors have lost eight in a row and are dead last in the league in defense permitting 111.3 points per game. Home teams having allowed 100 points or more five straight games, against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half of consecutive contests are 8-25 ATS the last five years.

Super Bowl Sunday

Iowa State made three 3’s in the final 80 seconds I believe it was, preventing 3-0 day. The Best System follows one of the hottest teams in the Big East and it’s not Syracuse, in a system that is 81 percent. Sal has his top Super Bowl bet and today’s trends are more informational than anything. Plus, I share my SB pick and top prop wagers. Good Luck and enjoy the game and day.

What I’m doing today- I like the Colts to win the game, 34-23, but have decided to have a little fun and bets the Saints with the points and have wagered equal value on Indy on the money line, thus hoping for them to win and not cover.

Here are my favorite prop bets today.

First Quarter –Under 13 points
Largest lead of the game (16.5) Under
Colts rushing yards (95.5) Under
Manning completions (25.5) Over
Reggie Wayne – completions (5.5) Over
Dallas Clark receiving yards (69.5) Over

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play On road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like South Florida off an upset win as an underdog of 10 or more, in February games. The Bulls also get back their second leading scorer for a system that is 34-8 ATS, 81 percent.

Free Football Trends - 2) Not really trends per se, but interesting. When Dallas Clark catches a touchdown pass Indianapolis is 19-1 SU the last three years. The last three quarterbacks to complete 70 or more percent of their passes during the regular season went on to win a Super Bowl, can you say Drew Brees.

Free Football Pick -3) Sal of the Left Coast Connection bet the Colts on the money line.

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