Conference Tournament Pointspread Tendencies

As with any other type of game in college basketball betting, certain trends or tendencies form in the conference tournaments. These annual events are loaded with tradition and offer, in some cases, nearly identical circumstances from one year to the next. This is the type of foundation from which successful betting systems are built. Think about it, in many leagues, some of the teams, depending upon their seedings, will play at home. In other leagues, all the games are in a neutral environment. Some of the games are on multiple consecutive days, while in others, the schedules tend to favor the better teams. It all adds up to what should be a goldmine of data from which to dig. Let’s see what we can uncover for this first group of conference tournaments starting this week. Next week, I’ll be back to cover more of the major conferences.

Horizon League

*Since ’06, FAVORITES have held the upper hand in Horizon League Tournament games, going 21-12 ATS (63.6%).
*Horizon League FAVORITES playing on their home court in the conference tournament are 15-7 ATS (68.2%) since ’06.
*The last 20 Horizon League Tournament FAVORITES of 7-points or more have won outright and are 14-6 ATS (70%).
*Horizon League tournament games have been high scoring than expected of late, with the OVER the total going 21-13 (61.7%) over the L4 seasons.

Ohio Valley Conference

*UNDERDOGS have held a slight edge in the last five seasons of Ohio Valley Conference Tournament action, going 18-15 ATS (54.5%).
*The most successful UNDERDOGS in the OVC tournament are those that reach the semifinal round, as they are 5-5 SU & 7-3 ATS (70%) since ’05, including 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS the L2 years. * Only one UNDERDOG of 6.5-points or more has pulled an upset in the OVC Tournament since ’02, going 1-27 SU. However, these teams are 14-14 ATS (50%).

Missouri Valley Conference

*The Missouri Valley Conference has seen some significant trends develop by round. In the Opening Round games, UNDERDOGS are a profitable 11-11 SU & 14-8 ATS (63.6%) since ’98. *In the Quarterfinals, FAVORITES turn the tables, 14-6 ATS (70%) over the last five seasons.
*There have been 11 instances since ’04 where a LOWER SEEDED MVC tourney team was FAVORED. They are just 3-8 SU & ATS (27.3%) in that span.
*Large FAVORITES, or those laying 7-points or more have been very successful in the MVC tourney of late, 16-0 SU & 10-6 ATS (62.5%) since ’02.
*Since the MVC Tournament games started having totals on every contest (’05), the UNDER the total has dominated at a 30-15 (66.7%) rate.

Colonial Athletic Association

*The Colonial Athletic Association tournament has shown some strong trends dependent upon the round of play. In the Quarterfinals, UNDERDOGS are just 5-15 SU but on a 13-7 ATS (65%) run over the L5 seasons. In the Championship, the FAVORITE has won nine straight games while going 6-2-1 ATS (75%).
*DOUBLE-DIGIT UNDERDOGS have been an unbelievable cover in the CAA tournament of late, going 2-15 SU but 15-2 ATS (88.2%) since ’03.
*FAVORITES of less than 10-points have also been a highly profitable bet in the CAA tournament since ’02, going 40-19 ATS (67.8%).
*UNDER has been the flavor of choice on totals for CAA tournament games, with a bankroll-building 37-17 (68.5%) mark since ’04.

Sun Belt Conference

*Like a few of the other conferences already discussed, the Sun Belt Conference has shown some distinctive tendencies by round. In the opening round, UNDERDOGS have covered eight of 10 games (80%) over the L2 years.

*In the semifinals, FAVORITES are on a run of 7-3 ATS.
*SMALL FAVORITES of 3-points or less have produced a 16-9 ATS (64%) record in the Sun Belt Conference Tournament since ’02.
*Totals have shown a favoritism towards the OVER in the L5 Sun Belt Conference tournaments, going 35-20 (63.6%).

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

*FAVORITES have had their way in the opening round of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament of late, going 10-4-1 ATS (71.4%) since ’04.
*UNDERDOGS of 4.5-points or more have only won five of the L44 MAAC tournament opportunities they’ve had while going 18-25-1 ATS (41.9%).
*Where offense has ruled the day in the MAAC Semifinals (7-1 OVER L4 years), defense has taken over the title game (6-1 UNDER L7).

Southern Conference

*Despite a 3-7 ATS mark in the 2007 Southern Conference Tournament, UNDERDOGS have held the upper hand in the league’s postseason proceedings, going 26-21 ATS (55.3%) since ’05.
*The early Southern Conference Tournament action has shown the most distinctive trends forming, with FAVORITES 18-10 ATS (64.3%) since ’02, and the UNDER 14-3 (82.3%) since ’04 in the Opening Round.
*Those favorites that survive the Opening Round of the Southern Conference Tournament also tend to fare well in the Quarterfinals, as UNDERDOGS in that round are on a 12-6 ATS (66.7%) run since ’05.
*Like the CAA, Southern Conference Tournament games have shown a strong UNDER tendency, going 36-17 (67.9%) on that side of the total since ’05.

West Coast Conference

*The West Coast Conference Tournament has been dominated by FAVORITES since ’98 to the tune of a 55-28 ATS (66.3%) record.
*FAVORITES own the edge in every round of the West Coast Conference Tournament over the L12 seasons, highlighted by a 10-3 ATS (76.9%) record in Round One.
*Neutral court FAVORITES of 7-points or more are 27-0 SU & 19-8 ATS (70.4%) in the WCC tournament since ’98.
*Oddsmakers have hinted which games in the WCC tournament have been high scoring, as on those with totals of 146 or higher since ’01, OVER the total is 10-1 (90.9%).

Big Sky Conference

*The Big Sky Conference has shown a shift to FAVORITES in the last three seasons, as those teams laying points have converted 10 of the 15 (66.7%) games during that stretch.
*There have only been two upsets in the Big Sky Conference tournament semifinals over the last seven years, and FAVORITES are 10-4 ATS (71.4%) in that span.
*The Big Sky Conference is one of few where LARGE UNDERDOGS, or those getting 7-points or more, have a good shot at an upset, owning a 4-8 SU & 8-4 ATS record since ’98, including 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS over the L2 years.
*FAVORITES in the -4 to -6.5-point line range have been nearly automatic in Big Sky Conference tournament action, 16-1 SU & 15-2 ATS (88.2%).

Summit League

This year’s Summit League Tournament will be the first one where games beyond the championship will be lined. In the previous two title games, the FAVORITE is 2-0 SU & 1-1 ATS.

Mid-American Conference

*FAVORITES are the preferred betting choice in MAC tournament games in recent years, with a record of 40-26 ATS (60.6%) over the L6 seasons.
*The MAC title game has seen the FAVORITE go 9-3 SU & ATS (75%) since its inception. The straight up winner is 12-0 ATS.
*Semifinal FAVORITES in the MAC tournament have swept the last three years of action and are 5-1 ATS (83%) in that span.
*The best spot for playing UNDERDOGS in the MAC tournament has proven to be in games when the lines are 3-points or less. In such cases, they are 23-16 ATS (59%) since ’98.
*OVER the total has been the preferred choice on that wagering option since ’04, with a 37-24 (60.7%) record since ’04.

By Steve Makinen of StatFox.com.

Sac-Town in Tuesday Totals Play

The Kings have won consecutive games and will try for three in a row, something they have not been able to accomplish since winning four straight Nov. 25 –Dec. 2. Sacramento is again having a miserable season at 20-39, being outscored by 4.4 points per game and are 26th in scoring defense at 105.4 points per game. Among the few bright spots has been rookie Tyreke Evans (he of the well placed elbow) for the Kings, who are horrifying 5-25 on the road (14-15-1 ATS) this season.

Sacramento wants to build a product like Oklahoma City (35-23 SU & ATS), who is one of the up and coming teams in the NBA, led by Kevin Durant. The Thunder has also won two consecutive games, each in blowout fashion (17 and 20 points) and has emerged victorious in 11 of last 13 contests.

“… We have that mindset of trying to be guys that go out and get after it and have that competitive spirit for 48 minutes straight,” Durant said. “That’s our brand of basketball here in Oklahoma City, and that’s how it’s going to be for a long time.”

Bookmaker.com has Oklahoma City as 10-point favorites with total of 202.5. Pay particular attention to the total for this reason.

Dreadful road teams, being outscored by three or more points a game, against opponent after two straight wins by 10 points or more, with a total in the range of 200 to 209.5, are 37-11 OVER the last 14 years.

In this situation, the average total score is 212.6 points and this super situation has really been heating up with 17-3 record the previous three seasons. Sacramento is 8-3 OVER as an underdog, while OKC is 8-3 OVER after scoring 100 or more points. Consider this NBA system tonight.

College teams make case for Big Dance

This evening, ranked teams Vanderbilt, UTEP and Ohio State are looking for brownie points in enhance position for NCAA Tournament, but what about their opponents, what kind of noise can they make, since it is because of them you even know the name Joe Lunardi. Here is a look at what the three OTHER teams have to do tonight in the final week of college basketball.

Leave the alligator alone

Florida (20-9, 13-11 ATS) is attempting to reenter the NCAA Tournament after a two-year period making their way thru the minor leagues of the NIT. Depending on one’s point of view, the optimist would see playing ranked teams Vanderbilt (22-6, 13-12 ATS) and Kentucky as a real opportunity to lockdown a bid, while the pessimist would see two more losses coming.
The Gators didn’t help their own confidence, losing at Georgia 78-76 this past Saturday and they are 6-15 ATS off a loss. Nevertheless, the coach believes they will come back.

“This team has played hard all year, and they’ve responded well,” coach Billy Donovan said. “I anticipate that they’ll respond and play as hard as they can. Our guys understand we have to play well to put ourselves in a good position.”

Florida is a three-point home favorite at Bookmaker.com with total of 146.5. The Gators are 6-2 ATS against teams with winning records and are 11-1 and 8-4 ATS at the O'Connell Center against the Commodores. Vandy is only 4-15 ATS after having won four of their last five games over the last three seasons.

Watch out for Thundering Herd

For the last several years, a good trivia question pertaining to college basketball would have been, “In 30 seconds, name the other teams in Conference USA besides Memphis?” With John Calipari taking his recruiting skills and likely probation to Kentucky, like a field filled with small holes, C-USA teams are like prairie dogs popping their heads above ground level and scurrying about. One such team is UTEP (22-5, 11-12 ATS), who is seeking outright title this evening in the state West Virginia and are set to be a treacherous foe for a higher seed in the Big Dance.

Another team trying to get noticed is Marshall (22-7, 14-8 ATS), who is 10-4 and in fourth place in C-USA. Not familiar with the Thundering Herd, than you are missing out. Marshall started the season 15-2, and then lost five in a row, with three of the losses by a total of nine points. This experience made this club tougher and they have reeled off seven wins in a row (4-2 ATS). The Herd holds teams to 38.7 percent shooting, 14th in the country. Marshall has a swatting machine in 6’11 Hassan Whiteside. The freshman leads the country in blocked shots at almost unimaginable 5.5 per game and his 159 rejection notices are 16th all-time in the NCAA with two games to go. For good measure, Whiteside also averages 13.2 points and 9.0 rebounds. Marshall is 11-4 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

This should be a tremendous matchup, as the Miners also play great defense (38.9 percent shooting allowed) and shoot the ball well (47.8) and create defensive pressure and are 15-6 ATS in road games off a home win over the last three seasons. Marshall is a slim one point favorite, with total having risen to 147.5 and the Herd is 8-1 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.

What kind of fight does Illini have?

Illinois’ home loss to Minnesota this past Saturday might be the deciding factor as to why they don’t make the field of 65. Coach Bruce Webber’s team has lost three of four and needs to beat ranked teams Ohio State and Wisconsin this week and probably at least get into Big Ten tourney semifinals to secure a spot. After going thru a period of six games starting in late January where they shot 51.1 percent as team (5-1, 4-2 ATS), Illinois (18-11, 11-15-1 ATS) has gone frigid, shooting 37.3 percent or worse in three of last four contests.

The off-target Illini were 23 for 72 against the Golden Gophers, yet remain hopeful since they are 11-1 ATS in road games after a game where they made 33 percent of their shots or less.
They will take on a motivated Ohio State squad (23-7, 15-15 ATS) who has plenty to play for. This is the Buckeyes last Big Ten game and a victory assures them of finishing no worse than tied for conference crown, with a chance to still win it outright, pending the results of Purdue and Michigan State, who also have four league losses. The Buckeyes have won nine of 10 (5-5 ATS) and are off a non-cover against Michigan, which plays to their favor since they are 27-12 ATS off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite.

The sixth ranked Buckeyes are led by Evan Turner, whose stellar all-around play (21.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, 6.0 assists and 2.1 steals) has him as virtual shoo-in for Big Ten player of the year and in a small group for national player of the year. “I wanted to win a Big Ten title, try to get a national championship and try to be one of the best to ever come out of here,” Turner said.

Ohio State is a 9.5-point favorite, however the way the Big Ten season has gone, road teams have enjoyed much success when you least expect it, especially among the top level clubs. Illinois is 7-1 ATS in road games this season, while the grey and scarlet clad Buckeyes are 0-7 ATS in home games after five straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this campaign.

Ridin' High on a Monday

Nailed all three plays yesterday, which was a welcome figure after Friday’s not so special day. We have a number of NBA systems to consider which are listed below on this page. The Top Trend applies to the Big Monday contest in the Big East. Good Luck

What I saw today – (11:30 MST) As per usual, NBA bettors are hitting the totals and three games in particular stand out. Orlando and Philadelphia have gone from 195.5 to 198, in spite of the Magic being 22-9 UNDER on the road this season. New York and Cleveland have also risen, up 2.5-points to 213, which makes more sense as the Knicks are 14-2 OVER in road games having lost 12 or more of their last 15 games over the last three seasons.

Oddsmakers opened Denver and Phoenix at 225, and that figure swiftly went south to 221. That seems to be the right direction as the Nuggets average total score is 210.2 points per game with no rest and the Suns is 215.

Very interesting to see Charlotte move from a one point favorite to three, seeing they have never beaten Dallas since joining the NBA and the Mavs have won seven straight.

There are just six college basketball games on the Monday docket. Favored West Virginia has moved up a point to 6.5, while Texas and Utah State have dropped one digit as favorites.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) See article listed below.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Georgetown is 4-19 ATS after one or more Under’s over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) After yesterday's winner, Steve has the Hornets with the points over the Spurs.

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Top NBA Monday Systems

Changes will be occurring in Charlotte as an ownership bid has been made, headed by one of the NBA’s best players ever. Tonight’s question does that lift the burden off the Bobcats to finally take down Dallas for the first time ever? The numbers point to no, at least as far as system plays are concerned, as we review the possibilities on an NBA Monday. Sides and totals from DiamondSportsbook.com.

Dallas (+2, 192) at Charlotte

The Bobcats will officially have a new ownership group led by Michael Jordan once the league approves them. Until then, the next order of business is doing something they have never done, beat Dallas. Charlotte is 0-11 (4-6-1 ATS) against the Mavericks since joining the league and faces a club that has won seven in a row and is not in a favorable position tonight. Play against teams when the line is +3 to -3, who are average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) against a weaker defensive team (45.5-47.5%), after three straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 47 percent or higher, since they are 27-6 ATS the last 14 years.

Orlando (-4, 196) at Philadelphia

The Magic have been playing their usual solid defense, holding last six opponents to 95.5 points per game, however the offense has been a little stagnant, averaging 97 points a contest in last five tries compared to season average of 101. Look to play against (7-24 ATS, L5Y) teams after five or more consecutive Unders, who are a good offensive team (98-102 PPG), against an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games.

New York (+11.5, 211) at Cleveland

The Cavaliers have won three in a row, shooting over 50 percent as a team, while the Knicks have lost nine of 10 and dream about tendering LeBron James a contract in the off-season. For now, play Over on home teams when the total is greater than or equal to 200, off two or more consecutive road wins, with a winning record on the season, playing a losing team. This situation is 61-22 since 1996.

San Antonio (-2.5, 195) at New Orleans

At times this season, it’s been almost hard to believe this is the San Antonio Spurs coached by Greg Popovich. Take their last four games in which they have allowed 109 or more points three times. Nevertheless, teams like the Spurs who are road favorites and ordinary defensive team (92-98 PPG), taking on poorer defensive team (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 205 points or more two straight games are 47-18 ATS, including 4-1 against the spread this season.

Portland (+1, 195) at Memphis

Portland concludes their five game road trip in the mid-south off a mauling of division partner Minnesota 110-91. Given the total on this contest, look to play Under on road teams when the number is between 190 and 199.5 points, off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival. In the last five seasons, this system is 72-33.

Denver (+2.5, 221) at Phoenix

Both teams suffered defeats against conference rivals yesterday, ending winning streaks. Phoenix is 22-7 SU at Planet Orange (home court) winning by eight points per game and appears to be in the better spot. Home favorites having successfully covered the spread in four or more consecutive games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 20-3 ATS the last three years.

Utah (-6, 202) at L.A. Clippers

Los Angeles has lost three of four to the Jazz at home, including Feb. 9 matchup 109-99 as five point underdogs. This places the Clips in a negative predicament since home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, revenging a home loss of 10 points or more, with a winning percentage of between 40-49 percent on the season, are 9-30 ATS.

Hoyas faltering at the finish

When Georgetown (19-8, 12-11 ATS) is at their best, it can literally beat any team in the country. When the mental aspect is off-kilter, unsightly performances are the norm rather than an aberration, similar to what happened at home in loss to Notre Dame 78-64, their third loss in four games.

Though this subject has been beaten to death here and other places, the lack of spark off the bench has never helped ignite the Hoyas out of lethargic play or for other reasons. Against the Irish, leading scorer Austin Freeman was battling the flu and scored a season-low five points, with no help in sight. Georgetown better bring the energy to Morgantown or they tumble to 11-26 ATS against Big East foes the last two campaigns.

It’s not easy what to make of West Virginia (22-6, 11-16 ATS), being similar to other clubs coach Bob Huggins had at Cincinnati. With the available talent, an Elite 8 showing or better is possible, but when Mountaineer players are clanging hoists off the rim, a second round NCAA Tournament upset appears just as likely. Though the Big East is rugged enough, Georgetown is the right opponent to test West Virginia, since they are 8-2 ATS this season off a spread loss.

The Mountaineers off their come from behind home win over Cincinnati 74-68 is 33-13 ATS on their own floor off a home triumph and is a 5.5-point favorite over Georgetown with a total of 138 at DiamondSportsbook.com. Georgetown’s lack of scoring in last outing had them falling below the oddsmakers number and they are only 4-19 ATS after one or more Under’s over the last two seasons. The Hoyas are 21-9 UNDER after a loss by 10 points or more and West Virginia is 14-3 UNDER at home after a win by six points or less.

This final Big Monday, Big East matchup begins at 7:00 Eastern and has West Virginia 6-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more games this season, winning by 17 points per contest.

Back to Business Sunday

Sorry I missed everyone yesterday; to make a long story short, my daughter lives in Hawaii, which caused a few anxious moments early in the day and ended up going to the Phoenix Open. I decided it was better to do nothing than a poor job.

Speaking of poor, that’s what we were Friday at just 1-3, so let’s make this a bounce back day. Have a terrific system play that is 87.5 percent in the ACC and found a strong Top Trend in the NBA. Good Luck

What I noticed yesterday – The Phoenix Open is easily the craziest golf tournament on the PGA Tour. 30,000+ people at the 16th hole cheering all the time, while downing a few(?) adult beverages. Large groups of people dressed in similar fashion (about 30 people were all dressed in various forms of yellow and white) moving around as group. In all, fun to watch, even the golf.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Virginia, who are average three-point shooting team (32-36.5 percent) against a good three-point defense (32 percent or less), after two straight games making 37 percent of their shots or worse. This is really a superb system at 28-4 ATS, 87.5 percent the last 13 years.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) The L.A. Clippers are 2-13 ATS after a combined score of 205 points or more this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Steve from the LCC really is good with Western Region teams in all sports and tells me UC-Davis is the play.

Something new for Sunday

Looking at 5 Sunday college games from a basketball betting perspective:

1. Ordinarily a team off such an important win as Temple's 49-41 smothering of Dayton would be a candidate for a letdown. But the Big 5 is still important in Philadelphia and if Temple can beat LaSalle they'll be the first Temple team to go 5-0 in the intra-city series since the Mark Macon-led 1987-88 squad. Since their blowout loss at Richmond , the Owls have held their four opponents combined to less than 34% from the field, with none of those teams shooting any higher than 40%.

2. UConn hosts Louisville in a game with the vibe of a postseason affair. Pointspread watchers may see the Cardinals "surge" as an illusion, as the only game that Pitino's charges have covered in their last 6 affairs was the outright upset win at Syracuse. The Cardinal are on a 3-10 pointspread run overall. Meanwhile, UConn is suddenly popular among sports bettors, as they've won and covered three in a row, including outright upsets over West Virginia and Villanova. Previously the Huskies had a potential massive outright upset thwarted by the officials in Syracuse . A win by either club here may wrap up a tourney berth.

3. If you don't have the Big 10 Network, well, no big deal. All you're missing is Indiana at Iowa at 6PM EST. Indiana has lost 9 straight and failed to cover 6 straight. Iowa has lost 8 of 9. Iowa wasted Indiana 58-43 earlier this season in Bloomington as 6-point road dogs, holding the homestanding Hoosiers without a 3-point field goal in 9 tries. Ironically, at a slow time in the sports day this game will be prominently featured on the big screens in Las Vegas sports books.

4. The earlier Big 10 game is no prize either. Northwestern is in unfriendly pointspread territory, as this is only the second time that Vegas and online sportsbooks haven't had Northwestern taking 7.5 points or more in a conference road game. The other outlier was when Northwestern lost by 13 at Iowa as a small road favorite. Previously considered to be a potential NCAA tourney team, Northwestern has managed to lose to both Iowa (2-12 in the rest of their conference games) and Penn State (1-13 in their other conference games).

5. Fortunately, despite the ugly affairs provided by a few "power conferences" there is a real beauty between a pair of underrated teams in the strong Atlantic 10 on ESPN2 this afternoon. Overlooked Xavier and underrated Richmond are two teams with potential to do some damage in the NCAA tournament. It is clearly Sunday's most attractive matchup, and you'll be a little bit better prepared for March Madness if you try to catch it.

Good luck on Sunday, and be careful.

Written by Kevin O'Neill of Real World Sports.com

NBA Sunday Action

Four of the top seven teams in the highly competitive Western Conference will be on display Sunday afternoon before a national television audience. Phoenix starts the day with southwest theme, traveling to face their postseason nemesis San Antonio. Later, two of the three division leaders from the West, Denver and the L.A. Lakers, will meet for a second time this month. This should be two quality contests and who knows; maybe Phil Jackson will give a parabolic dissertation during a break talking to ABC sideline reporter.

Suns are hot

The Phoenix Suns (37-23, 33-26-1 ATS) are at their highest winning percentage in two years and look to make it six wins in a row. Phoenix has won six of seven and is doing it in a way nobody thought possible, with defense. The suddenly defensive-minded Suns have held last seven opponents to 97 points per game, a jaw-dropping 8.2 points below season average. Coach Alvin Gentry is going to hate to see February disappear since his club is 9-2 SU and 9-2 ATS this month, performing like a ruling dictator, with a perfect 9-0 record when leading by 10 points or more in a contest.

Don’t dismiss San Antonio (32-24, 26-29-1 ATS) just yet. A measure of a team’s strength is their margin of victory. The Spurs might have just the seventh best record in the West, but they are fourth in point differential at +4.o, ahead of division leading Dallas (+2.1). They have blown an uncharacteristic number of leads and suffered defensive meltdowns at inopportune times. This team might not resemble the won that won four NBA titles is nine years, but there core players are still intact, making the Spurs dangerous. San Antonio is just 1-3 in previous four tries and is 22-10 ATS at home after failing to cover three of their last four against the spread over the last three seasons.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Spurs favored by 3.5-points with total of 208.5 and after losing to Houston Friday, is just 1-8 ATS after a division game this season. Phoenix beat the Clippers two days ago 125-112 and is 20-11 ATS after allowing 105 points or more this season.
The opening game is set for 1:00 Eastern with the Suns 4-2-1 ATS in last seven visits.

Revenge is best served cold

The Lakers (44-15, 25-32-2 ATS) lost at the Staples Center just over three weeks ago to Denver 126-113 and will be thinking payback. The great orator coach Jackson, seldom passes up an opportunity to play with opponent’s minds and recently said, “Some of these guys' (the Lakers) sentiment is Utah is going to outplay Denver,". Phil, Phil, Phil.

Los Angeles has been meandering most of the month with 7-4 (3-8 ATS) record and players have wondered aloud about their own effort. “Maybe we weren't going to get the ball with the will necessary." -- Pau Gasol, on the Lakers getting outrebounded in Dallas and Memphis this past week.

The Lakers defeated Philadelphia in last contest 99-90 as 11-point favorites and is 3-8 ATS off a home no-cover were the team won straight up as a favorite.

The Nuggets (39-19, 27-28-3 ATS) start a strenuous week, beginning with the Lakers, followed up at Phoenix and home to Oklahoma City. Denver understands the way to beat the Lakers, you have to be more aggressive, limit mistakes and not let them control the lane. In the last contest, they took the game to L.A. shooting 57.1 percent and doing a better job in half court sets in shot selection. Denver comes in 12-1 ATS after three straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more.

L.A. is a 6.5-point favorite and total is posted at 208.5. They may have the edge since Denver is 3-11 ATS playing their third game in four days this year. The Lake show is 22-8 UNDER on Sunday’s since last season. Mark this matchup for 3:30 Eastern.

College Hoops Weekend Preview

For many of the smaller conferences, the regular season concludes this weekend, while the larger leagues are still fighting to determine who the regular season champions will be. This Saturday and Sunday, a large number of these confrontations are on tap in several conferences and college basketball bettors are going to have to bring their A-game to determine winners and spread beaters. Enjoy the fray. Lines from Bookmaker.com.

Saturday, Feb. 27

Northeastern at George Mason (+3, 125)12:00E ESPN2

One of the most underrated leagues in college basketball is the Colonial Athletic Conference. Each season is highly competitive and the top teams have invariably pulled a few upsets over BCS-type conferences and the quality of play usually leads to good showings in the NCAA Tourney or the minor post-season events. On the final weekend of the regular season, Northeastern (18-11, 15-12-1 ATS) can still tie for conference crown with Old Dominion with a win and Monarchs loss, thanks to league leading defense that has permitted more than 64 points in CAA action just once. The Huskies are 7-5 and 8-3 ATS on the road this season.

George Mason (17-12, 10-15-1 ATS) sky-rocketed to the top off conference standings with 10-1 record, but a closer look revealed a 5-5-1 ATS mark, providing info the Patriots were not quite as potent as they appeared. February has been cruel to George Mason (2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS), as the freshmen stocked team has hit the wall. Don’t be shocked if senior guard Cam Long has a big day in his last home game at the Patriot Center. Watch for oddsmakers number since Patriots are 3-0 ATS as home underdogs.

George Mason has won and covered previous four confrontations in Fairfax, VA and the home team is 8-1-1 ATS in these CAA contests.

Kentucky at Tennessee (+2.5, 140.5) 12:00E CBS (split)

Nothing stirs the orange-clad Tennessee fans to see red, like the blue in Kentucky basketball uniform. The Hatfield’s and McCoy’s feud had nothing on these two universities, where genuine hatred exists between the neighboring states. Coach Bruce Pearl has coached up his team since the trials and tribulations of the new year occurred, however recently, the loss of Tyler Smith, injuries and slumps have seen them struggle. “You can’t feel sorry for ourselves,” senior guard J.P. Prince said. Pearl almost assuredly will be in the orange sports jacket and the Vols (20-7, 10-14 ATS) are 20-5 ATS as a home underdog or pick.

Though Kentucky (27-1, 15-11 ATS) plays its four freshmen extensively, John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins are arguably as talented as anyone playing their respective positions. The earlier South Carolina road loss may have been a blessing, since forward Patrick Patterson listened to the criticism and has raised his play to the level of his ability and his team has gone on to win eight straight (6-2 ATS). He was the difference-maker in recent overtime wins at Mississippi State and at Vanderbilt. The Wildcats are 6-1 and 5-2 ATS on the road this season and 7-2 ATS dating back to last season if the opponent has a winning home record.

Kentucky has taken seven of the last dozen in Knoxville, and the SU winner is 11-2 ATS wherever they have played in previous 13 outings.

Arizona State at California (-6, 140.5) 3:00E FSN

These are likely to be the only two Pac-10 schools invited to the Big Dance and if either falters in their conference tournament early, even that becomes a question mark. This is Arizona State’s third consecutive and final road game of the year and they hope next weekend’s home finales will be meaningful for the Pac-10 title. The first order of business is knocking off Cal and the Sun Devils (20-8, 11-13 ATS) don’t believe in trickery to upset opposing teams. Arizona State isn’t going to “wow” anyone with personnel, instead they play defense and take care of the ball, which is why they are 8-1 ATS in road games when they commit 10 to 13 turnovers.

California (19-9, 15-12 ATS) was the preseason choice to win the Pac-10 and they have positioned themselves to do just that 11-5 record. Senior point guard Jerome Randle, with a strong finish might be conference Player of the Year and fellow senior Jamal Boykin has been playing his best basketball of the season. The Bears are a much better club when sophomore guard Jorge Gutierrez (out six games in January) is on the floor, because he adds ferocity and energy. Cal is 15-3 ATS at home facing a team with a winning record.

Both teams have five conferences defeats and California has a game in hand, having only Stanford remaining on the schedule. The Bears won in Tempe 78-70 as four-point underdogs previously and are 14-1 and 10-4 ATS at home, mauling opponents by 19.3 points per contest. Cal is 7-5 at the Haas Pavilion against ASU since ’97, however have only covered the spread three times.

Kansas at Oklahoma State (+5.5, 144) 4:00E CBS

The Jayhawks (27-1, 10-14-1 ATS) have been learning valuable lessons as the season has progressed. Being No. 1 most of the year has forced the Kansas players to expect everyone to be gunning for them. In games at Kansas State, at Colorado, at Texas A&M and even at home vs. Baylor, the Jayhawks had to fight to win, were a less mentally strong team would have lost. Coach Bill Self has his squad back playing for each other and nobody wants to let anyone down. The next adventure is in Stillwater and Kansas is 17-4 ATS against teams with 60%-80% win percentage.

The Cowboys (19-8, 12-8-1 ATS) internal mettle is being tested, facing their third consecutive ranked team in the Jayhawks, after beating Baylor and tumbling to Texas. Any chance for an upset lies in the hands of James Anderson. The junior guard can go from mild to habanero hot in two shots and teammates Keiton Page, Obi Muonelo and Matt Pilgrim end up benefiting as opponents become focused on cooling down Anderson. Oklahoma State has the worst assist-to-turnover ratio in the Big 12, which won’t cut it against Kansas. Okie State is 15-5 ATS on own floor vs. teams outscoring opponents by four or more points a contest.

The Cowboys have split six tilts at home vs. Kansas with four covers and the UNDER is 5-0.

New Mexico at BYU (-8,152.5) 4:00E VERSUS

The Mountain West crown could be on the line in Provo, with New Mexico (26-3, 17-10-1 ATS) looking for the sweep of BYU. The Lobos have been dealing and have ample confidence, which is supported by 9-2 and 5-5-1 ATS road record. We're just real confident," senior forward Roman Martinez said. "We always respect our opponent, but I think we're playing confident now and more calm than we used to be." This will help New Mexico who is 12-3 and 10-4 ATS when playing with three or more days off.

This MWC matchup is doubly important for BYU (26-3, 16-10 ATS), since they try to even season series and still have road games remaining. Senior Jonathan Tavernari has had a relatively disappointing final season, nevertheless has started to find the range in last few weeks, proving why he is the school’s 12th all-time leading scorer. Tavernari has maintained a positive outlook as being just the Cougars fourth leading scorer this season. “The reason this team is so good is we have so many options," Tavernari said. BYU is on 12-1 ATS mission in February contests.

With both clubs having two losses in the conference, the straight up winner is perfect 13-0 ATS since 2003.

Villanova at Syracuse (-5.5,157) 9:00E ESPN

While this won’t necessarily determine the champion of the Big East, it will go a long way towards deciding it. This is the most anticipated regular season game of the year in the conference and Scottie Reynolds will lead a veteran Villanova (23-4, 17-9 ATS) squad into the Carrier Dome, long on big game experience. Both teams have talented deep backcourts, which could offset one another, meaning what goes on in the painted area might determine your winner. Forward Antonio Pena, will need the likes of Taylor King, Maurice Sutton, Isaiah Armwood and possibly even Mouphtaou Yarou, all to be a factor for a club that 11-3 and 9-5 ATS away from home.

Coach Jay Wright will play funky defenses designed to confuse, which he can with his guard contingent that are amoeba-like in adaptability, which is why Syracuse (26-2, 17-7 ATS) has to establish dominance in the lane. Finding ways to feed the post to Rick Jackson and Arinze Onuaku opens up wing players like Wes Johnson and sub Kris Joseph, to score in various ways and clears shooting lines for Andy Rautins and others. The Orangemen are 9-2 ATS versus good defensive teams permitting 42 or less field goal accuracy.

Coaching adjustments will also be important and so will rebounding. The team with most boards is 13-1 SU and ATS.

Sunday, Feb. 28

Richmond at Xavier (-7, 136.6) 1:00E ESPN2

It wasn’t supposed to be this way in the Atlantic 10, with three teams tied for first place this late in the campaign, especially if the roll call was Richmond, Xavier and Temple. The Spiders (22-6, 15-9 ATS) have given opposing teams arachnophobia, with its crawling defense that permits just 60.1 points per game. Richmond plays mostly upperclassmen, many of whom were on 8-22 squad from three years ago. The Spiders defense really started to get under opponents skin when coach Chris Mooney inserted center Darrius Garrett into starting lineup, being a shot blocking specialist. Who makes Richmond go is 5’11 Kevin Anderson, whose elevated the program to first Top 25 ranking in 24 years. The Spiders are 6-2 ATS this season as creepy underdogs.

Xavier (20-7, 17-9 ATS) was thought to have lost too much talent from last season and not defend their A-10 crown. Taking a wider perspective, new coach Chris Mack took over a program widely successful and placed his personal stamp on in, having senior Jason Love follow his lead. What Musketeers insiders have marveled at is Mack sets expectations for each player on the team and demands they meet them every day. He doesn’t holler and scream all the time, but uses several techniques to keep them focused on pushing themselves. Indiana transfer Jordan Crawford has helped this team exceed others expectations, not Xavier’s. The Musketeers are 13-0 and 10-2 ATS at the Cintas Center, destroying foes by 23.4 points per game.

Xavier is 7-2 and 6-3 ATS in previous nine matchups.

Michigan State at Purdue (-4, 135) 4:00E CBS

The way the Big Ten schedule has played out, every couple of days, a national game of importance is on tap and another is coming on Sunday. Despite a collection of top returning players, it has been anything but easy for Michigan State (21-7, 10-17 ATS). After losing three straight to start February, the Spartans had been showing signs of improving daily (until Ohio State), with guard Kalin Lucas back in control from sprained ankle. Others like Durrell Summers are finally playing smarter and Tom Izzo’s crew is 22-10 ATS revenging a same season loss.

A win against Michigan State might well place Purdue (24-3, 13-14 ATS) on the top row to draw a top seed when the tournament bids come out in couple of weeks, however that belief is now clouded with the season ending injury to Robbie Hummel. Like coach Izzo, Matt Painter deserves a boiler room full of credit, riding out tumultuous times in the early part of Big Ten schedule. The Boilermakers stayed the course, fought thru the challenging moments and emerged a mentally tougher club, with road wins at Champaign, East Lansing and Columbus. In Purdue’s latest winning streak, center JaJuan Johnson has been a beast and E'Twaun Moore is their leading scorer. However, Hummel was second leading scorer and rebounder on a team not blessed with size. Purdue will have to adjust swiftly and they are 16-5 ATS vs. teams averaging 16 assists a game.

Purdue is 5-1 SU and ATS when Spartans come to Mackey Arena.

Clemson at Florida State (-4, 133.5) 5:30E FSN

The bracketolgists (is there a more worthless job) of college hoops have seven ACC teams making the field of 65 right now. If this information is to be believed, these two teams are fighting to move up toward better seeds, making this a mega-matchup in the ACC. Clemson (19-8, 12-12 ATS) is like Mark McGwire on roids at home (13-2, 9-3 ATS) and about as intimidating as David Spade on the road (4-5 SU and 0-4 ATS as road pooch). The Tigers are in the midst of playing last three of five conference conflicts away from home and are 0-9 ATS in road tilts taking on teams with a winning record.

Most so-called experts believe Florida State (20-7, 8-14 ATS) has to hold serve in last two home games to punch their ticket for NCAA berth. The Seminoles have been a potent squad at the Donald L. Tucker Center at 12-2, but a woeful wager at 2-8 ATS. Florida State has been at or near the top of the defensive field goal percentage numbers all season in the ACC and has the ability to stifle Clemson, who malfunctions when it comes to half court offense. Center Solomon Alabi has been the team’s leading scorer (12.0) and he’ll have a chance to improve the Noles fortunes.

Clemson is only 3-9 and 6-6 ATS in Tallahassee.

Light'em up on a Friday

Had a few extra minutes to get this up and after yesterday’s 2-1 performance, we now stand at 22-11 in last 33, not too shabby. We’ll start with a NBA totals system at over 81 percent that yields two plays. That is followed by a CBB angle following a team that doesn’t adjust well to opponents that just fire away. The LLC goes for three in a row with Top Free Play. Good Luck

What I read yesterday – Though I’m not a big fan of Bill Simmons of ESPN, I thought this was outstanding article and wonder what your think about it.

Http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/100224

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Under on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5, a marginal winning team (51 to 60 percent), playing a winning team, in February games. This totals system yields two plays involving New Orleans and Toronto. Since 2004-5 season, this system is 44-10, 81.5 percent.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Manhattan is 2-14 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more three-point shots a game over the last three seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) The Left Coast Connection consensus play has Atlanta with 7-0 wagering position.

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East vs West Televised Tilts

Once again this season, the Western Conference has the edge over the East. The West has 11 teams at .500 or better, compared to those from the Eastern side with eight. One distinct disadvantage the East has is New Jersey (1-21 SU vs. the West), that would be the Nets, not the state. ESPN will have two confrontations to wager on Friday night with the NBA bettor being able to show his allegiance.

Dallas at Atlanta 7:00 E

While a number of Eastern Conference teams have been pummeled by the West, one club that hasn’t is Atlanta (36-20, 34-22 ATS). The Hawks are 18-8 against the other conference with a 15-11 ATS mark. Atlanta is even more imposing at Phillips Arena with 10-1 (6-5 ATS) record.

The Hawks return home from .500 four game road trip and gave a run of the mill performance in defeating Minnesota 98-92 as 11.5-point favorites. Atlanta was bailed out by Josh Smith, who had 27 points, 10 rebounds and five assists.

He was all over the place,” coach Mike Woodson said. “He blocked some shots. He scored for us, made some free throws. He was solid from beginning to end, and we’re going to need him the rest of the way.” Atlanta is 18-9 ATS after playing a home game this season.

The Hawks are going to need Smith and a complete team effort to slow down Dallas (37-21, 24-34 ATS). The Mavericks have won five in a row and have really put the defensive clamps down on opposing teams, limiting them to 90.2 points per game during this win streak. Dallas has a number of negative trends this season, but they are 16-9 ATS when they hold opponents to 96 or fewer points.

The Mavs are only three-point road underdogs at DiamondSportsbook.com, possibly because they are 17-5 (10-12 ATS) against the East. Dallas will have to overcome frightening angle that has them at 5-15 ATS after two or more consecutive wins this season. Atlanta on the other hand is 22-6 and 19-10 ATS at home and 26-12 ATS on their own court after three straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last two years.

Atlanta has won and covered last two meeting at home and is 17-6 OVER after one or more Under’s this season. The Hawks also won at Dallas 80-75 on Dec. 5 as six-point underdogs and the Mavericks are 9-1 UNDER in road games revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a home favorite.

Orlando at New Orleans 9:30 E

The Magic have won 13 of last 17 (9-7-1 ATS) and no tricks have been involved. Center Dwight Howard has been the centerpiece of Orlando (39-19, 28-26-4 ATS) surge, that has catapulted them into first place in the Southwest Division and ahead of Boston for the second best record in the East.

“He’s worked hard. He’s made improvement and I think he’s going to play at a high level all of the time.” – Coach Stan Van Gundy said about Howard.

The Magic humiliated Houston 110-92 at their place and is 17-6 ATS after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last contest. Orlando has been above average against the West with 12-8 mark and 8-9-3 ATS record.

New Orleans (30-28, 29-29 ATS) could use some help, having lost seven of last 11. The Hornets have pressed on without their leader Chris Paul, as their rookie backcourt of Darren Collison and Marcus Thornton has played well on the offensive end, but possibly isn’t getting the rest of the team into the offense. As one might expect, defense is an on-going lesson for this duo at this level and they and their teammates permitted Milwaukee to score 72 of their 115 points in the paint in last outing, which is dreadful, since the Bucks aren’t exactly known as inside scoring team.

We just didn’t have enough fight, which is inexcusable for a team like this,” Collison said. “Mentally, we weren’t in it on the defensive end.” The Hornets will have to get into it or they will fall to 2-11 ATS on Friday night’s.

New Orleans is five-point home underdog with total of 201 and they are 10-15 (13-12 ATS) facing teams east of the nearby Mississippi River. The Hornets lost by six at Orlando earlier this month and is 25-11 ATS at home revenging a same season loss and 14-3 UNDER as a home underdog. The Magic has mesmerized non-conference foes on the road the last three years with 29-13 ATS record and is 16-6 UNDER as a road favorite this season.

The Hornets are 5-4 and 4-5 ATS against Orlando since moving to the Crescent City.

Thursday Action and in a hurry!

Running late, wanted to get something up at least. Good Luck

What I thought today – Watch Jerome Jordan of Tulsa. He has a number of good offensive moves at center, interesting to see how Duke guards him.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against home teams like Furman when the line is +3 to -3, off a close road loss by 3 points or less, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season. This system is 30-7 ATS, 81.1 percent.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) I have a million of them against Tenn-Martin tonight, however number is good size.

Free Basketball Pick -3) The Left Coast Connection consensus is on North Texas 8-0.

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Cavs visit Beantown tonight

The Cleveland Cavaliers ended their three game losing streak with a 105-95 non-cover over New Orleans Tuesday, next up is to end losing skid that goes back years. Cleveland has made nine trips to Boston and has come up on the short end of the score each time. The last time the Cavs (44-14, 28-29-1 ATS) won at TD Garden was Jan. 3, 2007 and they are 6-3 ATS in those visits, which is little consolation unless you are a sports bettor.

There has been a great deal of doom and gloom surrounding Cleveland’s recent slide and the fact they are 1-6 ATS in last seven, but a certain high profile Cavs player tries to put things into perspective.

“There’s 82 games in the regular season. You’ll have ups and downs,” said LeBron James. “We’ve had way more ups than downs. We have the best record in the Eastern Conference and one of the best records in the league. You can go two or three games where you don’t win a game. That’s not our worries.”

Cleveland’s recent struggles have had to do with defense. Coach Mike Brown’s squad prior to last game had allowed 100 or more points in five of previous six contests. Before this, the Cavs surrendered that many points over a span of 26 games, showing the decline in effort. They will seek reversal and are 8-4 ATS off a victory.

Like anything in life, it could be worse, like being a loyal Boston Celtics (36-19, 21-33-1 ATS)bettor. Boston has won four of last five, but for Celtics backers, betting the C’s is similar to getting a hot stock tip that the Hummer is coming back strong, with 8-18-1 ATS record since Dec. 27.

General Manager Danny Ainge was being barbequed in Boston until he made the bold moves to bring in Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, which restored Celtics pride and brought them a championship. This would have never happened had Boston lost the top pick in the draft in the lottery, which would have brought Kevin Durant and the Celtics would more likely resemble Oklahoma City, than the current model.

Like most GM’s in the NBA, do one thing right and you have a free pass for years. Ainge thought Rasheed Wallace would be good fit for the green and white and he probably more than any other player exemplifies what is wrong with Boston this season and in part explains why they are 3-8 ATS off a SU win.

Wallace isn’t close to being the defense player he was even two years ago when his skills were diminishing. He was supposed to add scoring in the paint, however as 82games.com points out, over 80 percent of his shots come outside the lane and like in recent years he believes he’s Ray Allen deep, despite shooting 28.4 percent beyond the arc. One more thing, guard Rajon Rondo averages more rebounds per game than Wallace (4.4 vs 4.2).

No question injuries have played a part in Boston’s season and Paul Pierce is doubtful for this evening. The Celtics are 6-18-1 ATS at home and 1-7-1 ATS with a day between contests.
Bookmaker.com has Cleveland as 1.5-point faves and they are 7-3 ATS with one day of rest and they are 5-1-1 OVER this month after scoring 100 or more points. Boston has covered 17 of last 25 Thursday assignments and is 20-8 UNDER on this day of the week going back even further.

This confrontation of Eastern powers begins just after 8:00 in East time zone on TNT and the home team is 16-1 SU, though just 8-8-1 ATS in previous 17 meetings.

CBB Giants in Action Thursday

Duke and Kentucky are both involved in attempting to be on the top line where the four seeds of the NCAA Tournament will reside in just over two weeks and each will look to continue to make sure they are in the conversation, being in action on Thursday night on ESPN2. Take a gander at each team and see if you believe they belong as a top seed and review the situation to see if you think they are play on team.

Tulsa at Duke 7:00E

The last several years, coach Mike Krzyzewski has scheduled one of these non-conference games in February with two things in mind. One, to break up the strain of playing in the ACC and also give his players a chance to face an average to better than average team, typically fighting to earn a NCAA berth. This current collection of Blue Devils’ players has never won a ACC title and that is foremost on their minds, leading Maryland by a game, nonetheless this great preparation taking on unknown opponent as this club is starting to gel, having won six straight and eight of nine (5-3-1 ATS).

Coach K knows what he’s going to get from his Big Three (Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler) and recently he’s been working on putting certain players like Lance Thomas, center Brian Zoubek and the Plumlee brothers in more comfortable positions on the floor for them to score. Duke (23-4, 16-9-1 ATS) is 15-0 and 10-4 ATS at home this season.

With Memphis presumably down at the start of the year, Tulsa (19-8, 7-16-1 ATS) believed this might be their opportunity to take charge of Conference USA, with its two senior leaders. Unfortunately the rest of the league has not cooperated and the Golden Hurricane is distant fifth in the league, having lost four of last five to teams that are ahead of them in the standings. Coach Doug Wojcik has never been able to develop a bench and possibly the heavy minutes the starters are playing is taking a toll. Tulsa’s two best players are guard Ben Uzoh and center Jerome Jordan, who’s really blossomed into a very good offensive player. Tulsa has not covered a spread since Jan. 16, a span of 10 games.

Bookmaker.com has Duke as 18-point favorites and they are 12-2 and 8-5 ATS in non-conference action. The Blue Devils are 13-1 and 9-3-1 ATS with three or more days off. Tulsa is 0-7-1 ATS taking on a team with winning record and is 4-10 ATS off a spread loss, including eight failures in a row.

South Carolina at Kentucky 9:00E

The Wildcats will seek revenge for their lone defeat this season at the hands of the Gamecocks. In the 68-62 loss, Kentucky was “Downey-ized” by Devan Downey, who torched them for 30 points. One important element from the earlier matchup that played a key role was the undersized South Carolina squad held a +4 rebounding edge. Kentucky (26-1, 14-11 ATS) no doubt will seek redemption and is 13-4 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a road favorite.

Since their moment of the year, South Carolina (14-12, 9-14 ATS) has returned to being what they are, a slightly above average squad with limited ability in the paint and dependent on Downey to score and distribute the ball to others. The Gamecocks have shriveled up as visitors with 1-8 and 2-7 ATS record away from Columbia. South Carolina will need an even better performance to sweep Kentucky, but they are 3-12 ATS vs. shooting teams making 45 percent or more of their shots this season.

Big Blue is 11-1 and 8-4 ATS against South Carolina in Lexington, with last seven contests going OVER the number and they are a solid 16.5-point favorite to avenge loss.

The Lakers and other winning info

The Los Angeles Lakers won four of five while Kobe Bryant was sidelined with an injury, as only loss occurred to Boston 87-86. While wagering pundits will debate about the loss one player can make, Bryant gave a perfect illustration of what the right answer should be, one basket.

With the Lakers (43-14, 25-30-2 ATS) down two points to Memphis on the road yesterday, Bryant hit a 3-pointer with 4.3 second left in the contest and his club won 99-98 as 5.5-point road favorites. Bryant showed his clutch ability, scoring the team’s last nine points on the way to totaling 32. “It’s fun,” Bryant said. “It’s my responsibility to make plays down the stretch. I enjoy it.”

With little time to enjoy, Kobe and company move south to Dallas (36-21, 23-24 ATS) to face the Mavericks on an ESPN televised tilt. Los Angeles has now won seven of last eight road games (5-2-1 ATS) and head to Big D where Dallas has been friendlier this season than in the past.

The Mavs are 18-9 SU at home; winning by a mere two points a game, accounting for to be pitied for league worst 6-21 ATS record. Dallas recently turned over its roster with big trade, attempting to shake the lethargy that had settled in despite being in first place in the Southwest Division. The addition of center Brendan Haywood has been an immediate benefit for the Mavericks, having won four in a row (2-2 ATS). Once Erick Dampier returns from dislocated finger, Dallas has the size to matchup with Lakers in the paint, along with another scorer in Caron Butler.

Those setting the numbers at DiamondSportsbook.com are not backing off Dallas, in spite of puny numbers, making them 1.5-point home favorites with total of 195. Who cares if the Mavs are 2-10 ATS at American Airlines Center after hosting a game or the fact they are 1-9 ATS in a home game when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season. It’s not like the Lakers are sure thing, with 7-15 ATS mark having won four of their last five games and are 4-11 and 6-8-1 ATS with no rest this year.

This contest has a 9:05 Eastern tipoff and L.A is 7-0 UNDER as a road underdog and Dallas is 14-5 UNDER revenging a loss vs. opponent this season.

NBA cash grab

A New Orleans and Milwaukee encounter is hardly a headliner, (take this article for example) unless you are a sage NBA bettor in search of the right hot team. Despite playing without All-Star Chris Paul, the Hornets (30-27, 29-28 ATS) have won four of last seven and are 6-1 ATS, with all-rookie backcourt of Darren Collison and Marcus Thornton.

The Bucks (27-28, 34-21 ATS) have won three in a row and six of eight and they have been handing out bonuses faster than Wall Street with 14-3 ATS run. Center Andrew Bogut has been more assertive in all areas and rookie Brandon Jennings and John Salmons have clicked since Milwaukee acquired him from Chicago.

New Orleans is a six-point road underdog and would appear to have several decided edges. The Hornets have stung Milwaukee eight straight times (5-3 ATS), dating back to Jan. 30, 2006. New Orleans is 8-1 ATS versus teams who make six or more 3-point shots a game in the second half of the season and the Bucks are 4-16 ATS revenging a close loss (Hornets 102-99, Nov. 25) of three points or less since 2007.

This battle begins at 8:05 Eastern and can be seen in local markets, with somebody taking home another winner, following spread covering clubs.

Let's shoot for Super Tuesday

Going to take a 0-1-1 Monday, since the Mavs were anywhere from -8.5 to -9.5 and landed on nine, thus we’ll take a push when the final number would actually have given us a winner. Our system play was actually right, but didn’t qualify, leaving us at 19-8 in last 27. We have a qualifying play today for certain in the NBA at 85.3 percent. The Top Trend is flat dead perfect and the Free Play has those betting in agreement this is the right side. Good Luck

What I thought today – I really like John Calipari the basketball coach. Though he has left a trail of debris behind him, he always has been able to get his players to play hard. What makes him a great salesman is this season at Kentucky, consistently downplaying either the team or himself, however when he was at Memphis, he was always talking about how underrated and good his team was. Adaptability and teaching work ethic are his strengths.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play On home teams like Golden State when the line is +3 to -3, averaging 103 or more points a game on the season, against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more. Dating back to 1996, this system is 29-5 ATS. 85.3 percent.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) New Mexico is 8-0 ATS after allowing 65 points or less three straight games, winning by almost 15 points a game.

Free Basketball Pick -3) The Left Coast Connection consensus says to play Hofstra with the points.

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Ranked squads hit the road

This evening in college basketball, three teams from various power conferences will place their Top 25 ranking on display against opponents on their home floor. This certainly adds to the degree of difficulty trying to emerge victorious and keep lofty status with an eye on seeding for the NCAA Tournament. Each has something to accomplish in enemy territory, here is a preview of what might happen.

Trying to break fall

Georgetown (18-7, 11-10 ATS) has lost two in a row for the first time all season and will visit a place where victories for road teams are like reduced bank fees, not as easy to come by as they might appear. The Hoyas are 6-3 and 5-4 ATS against ranked teams, but recent losses to Rutgers and South Florida shows focus is an issue, not being able to stay on an even enough keel.

Georgetown is 10-24 ATS against conference opponents over the last two seasons and travels to Louisville (18-9, 8-14 ATS), who has moved a game ahead of the Hoyas in the Big East standings with 9-5 record, thanks to three wins in a row. Coach John Thompson III team has not been on the floor since last Thursday and they will need every ounce of energy, since they lack depth and the Cardinals will press most likely the entire game using 10 or more players to keep up the pressure before the home crowd where Louisville is 14-3 (4-8 ATS). After being a top Big East plays for a few seasons, Rick Pitino’s crew has sagged noticeably with 3-10 ATS record after a conference game this season.

Bookmaker.com has Georgetown as three-point underdog at 7:00 Eastern for ESPN2 clash and they cannot allow the Cardinals to reach their typical home scoring average (78.1) since they are 10-26 ATS when they allow 75 to 80 points.

Rarified air intoxicating for Wildcats

Kansas State has moved to its highest ranking since John Kennedy was still the president of the United States (1962) and this is a treacherous matchup for team with visions of revenge and No. 2 seed. The Wildcats are 22-4 (15-6 ATS) and their next two contests are vs. teams they’ve lost to, however, unless they are careful, K-State could get nicked again. Kansas State is 9-19 ATS in road games after playing a game as favorite over the last three seasons.

Texas Tech (16-10, 12-8 ATS) can scare the life out a team in Lubbock. The Red Raiders are 13-3 (8-3 ATS) on their own floor, with the losses by a total of 11 points. Texas Tech lacks the physical ability of Kansas State, but not the heart. “Our kids just didn’t quit and battled all the way to the end,” coach Pat Knight said of four point loss to Texas. “I kept telling them ‘if you hang around good things can happen.’ The Red Raiders are 14-5 ATS at home versus teams outscoring opponents by eight or points a game the last few years.

Kansas State is a six-point road choice, with total of 158.5 and is tough to beat after a hot shooting game and is 6-0 ATS after they’ve made 50 percent or more of 3-point shots. Do not discount the Red Raiders who are 9-2 ATS in home games when the total is 150 to 159.5.

Tennessee tries to avoid being Gator bait

After losing four of seven, Tennessee (20-6, 10-13 ATS) would like to believe they have stabilized with consecutive wins. The Volunteers are tied with Florida at 8-4 in the SEC East, one game behind Vanderbilt and want to keep building late season momentum. Seniors like guard Bobby Maze are feeling their college basketball mortality and want to assure they are doing things right. “As the clock ticks down, I want people to remember me here,” Maze said of his collegiate career. “That I gave it my all on the floor and against the best players, I rise to the occasion.” In all likelihood, he and his Vols teammates will have to rise to the occasion since they are 11-22 ATS in road games after playing consecutive games as favorite.

Florida (19-8, 12-10 ATS) is looking to make late season push also. The Gators won and covered at Mississippi as road underdogs 64-61, despite shooting 36.5 percent and would seem to have the greater motivation. Florida has missed out on last two NCAA Tournaments after being back to back champions and has a strong desire to return to Big Dance. In addition, they have lost six straight to Tennessee (1-4-1 ATS) and are 14-5 ATS off a close win by three points or less over a SEC rival.

The Volunteers are three-point road dogs and are 13-26 ATS facing poor 3-point shooting teams, converting on 31 percent or less of their attempts. This SEC showdown begins after 9:00 Eastern on ESPN.

Are Tired NBA clubs Good or Bad Bet?

The professional basketball season is long arduous task for the players. The 82-game season has a number of nights where the travel is too tough, the sleep too short and the coach’s preaching too boring. For as long as people have been giving advice on how to bet and win in the NBA, one of the most (over) used terms is “a tired team”. What constitutes a tired team?

There are many different ways to mentally and physically tucker out a NBA squad, one of the cruelest is four games in five days. This used to be far more common than it is today, though several teams will still end up with one on the docket. Another is eight or nine games in a two week period. The games themselves are exhausting enough, but there is the morning walk-thru’s or shoot-arounds, possibly a quick film session, where the assistant coaches found a previously unknown weakness to exploit. This all takes a toll.

The most common way teams are wore down these days in three games in four days, with last two back to back. To date there has been 222 such occurrences in the NBA, an average of about seven per team. The league’s schedule-maker has a tricky task, trying to juggle dates around car shows, rodeo’s and empowerment seminars. In researching the third game in four days this campaign, maybe it’s just a coincidence (not really) but the teams fitting this criteria play the last game on the road better than 74 percent of the time (166 road – 56 home).

Now that we’ve established what a supposed tired team should look like and what they are up against, let’s move on. In reading thru various forums for years, a common description those that sell picks will use is the aforementioned - tired team. In the three weeks before the All-Star break, on 59 occasions, coming from 27 different cappers, some form of the word “tired” was used to describe a NBA team and in EVERY situation, these were Play Against teams. This had the feel of a handy way to describe a condition, but as old as a dudeen.

Though I have no axe to grind with those that make a full or part-time living selling sports wagering information, I became curious enough to want to find out if what they are saying is actually true both SU and against the spread.

The research of all 30 teams was broken down this way, playing three games in four days, the last two consecutively.

*Off a SU win
*Off a SU loss
*As a home favorite
*As a home underdog
*As a road favorite
*As a road underdog

The initial aspect was to find out how these NBA teams fit compared to normal circumstances. The so-called “tired teams” are 91-131 SU, 40.9 percent. For the season, all road teams play at 40.1 percent clip and visiting clubs matching this system are 54-112 SU, a much lower 32.5 percent SU record, which in theory is quite logical, thank you Mr. Spock.

This in turn leads to all home teams winning 59.1 percent of the time in 2009-10, yet clubs at home and reportedly tired are 31-25 SU, down to 55.3 percent winning percentage, which correlates to conventional reasoning. The next question is what about against the numbers the oddsmakers put out?

This is where facts and reality meet.

Let’s review areas already mentioned and see how the numbers shake out. Road underdogs are 36-84 SU, winning just 30 percent of the time, seemingly a poor wager. Yet when sifting thru all the losing numbers, these dogs are not nearly ugly as they appear with 58-58-4 ATS record. While 50 percent is not the breakeven point of 52.4 percent, these numbers do not add up to making many, if any at all spread wagers on road underdogs.

Supposedly worn out road favorites are 25-19 SU, a healthy 56.8 percent, yet are only a slightly better than average bet at 23-20-1 ATS. The most important way to look at this angle is if those providing sports wagering information say road favorites are a bad bet playing a trio of games in about 96 hours, the last two back to back, well, it’s just not true, at least this season.

Home teams don’t receive a whole of play from the league in this case and while the favorite and underdog roles are in sharp contrast straight up, they are pedestrian in nature against those setting the lines.

Home favorites are sparkling 27-12 SU, yet dull 20-19 ATS. Picked up the phone and called a long-time friend named Tony who has booked, been on both sides of the counter in Nevada and lives a quieter life in Laughlin, while still making daily trips to casinos to place his bets. I asked Tony why these home favorites don’t often cover, despite solid winning records.

“Typically these are overvalued home teams who are actually tired. They would go thru the motions for 40 minutes and when it is time to win the game, they turn it up a notch and pull through. This is very true against inferior competition.”

This led to another similar question, coming from the opposite direction. Home underdogs are 4-11 SU in this same variable of games and days, yet are 7-8 ATS, why would this be?

“Douglas my friend, very simple, your numbers match up with league averages of home underdogs, which at my last count was running about 50-50 against the number (118-115 ATS). Let’s face it, there is a good reason why teams are home dogs, they’re not very good and teams playing them will not take them very seriously and cover as often as not, making this horse crap bet, if you know what I mean.”

The last two areas of concern were how these NBA teams performed the night after a SU victory or defeat. In each instance, the team was generally unable to muster the energy, though as noted, most of the matchups were away from home.

Teams off a win are 46-53 SU; yet don’t provide an inkling of opportunity to cash on them with 49-48-2 against the spread record.

When a NBA squad off a loss is faced with this circumstance, the numbers would have you believing this a wonderful opportunity to build up the bankroll. Their record is a mere 45-78, 36.5 percent SU. This looks like a sure-fire way to profit, however, instead of this being a negative opportunity to play against a team; it’s actually a positive one! Despite their mediocre record, these teams are 63-57-3 ATS, suggesting the oddsmaker is shading them for public consumption as a worn out club.

After all the digging, not one truly useful angle except this. Teams playing three games in four days, with the last two back to back and the third game is a pick, the road team is 0-4 SU and ATS. Needless to say, the sample is hardly worth the wager.

The real lesson is this, the next time you read about a play against team in the aforementioned situation, you will already know it is not a winning play. The only thing “tired” is using the word to make an unsubstantiated point.

Monday, Monday

Another quality 2-1 day takes us to 19-7 against the spread the last 26 tries. For the Top Trend, we have a double angle in a game I personally don’t like. Slick Rick hopefully has another Free Play Winner and the Best System doesn’t quite qualify, yet is 5-0 this season. Good Luck

What I thought today – What a great weekend of sports! The best entertainment all weekend was on MSNBC of all places Sunday night, with the United States upset of Canada in hockey. It showed why when hockey is played at high level; it’s an outstanding sport, pulling in even novice fans.

I haven’t had time to look at any web information sites north of the border, but I really don’t have to, since today is truly a sad day in Canada, not only being beaten, but being outworked at key moments. It would normally be considered a fluke to be outshot 45-23 and win, nonetheless, Canada made numerous miscues and goalie Martin Brodeur looked like an imposter with his name on the back of his red uniform, allowing four goals in 22 shots, while Ryan Miller of the U.S. was like an octopus, stopping all but three attempts.

Can Canada come back and win the gold, undoubtedly, but for those that had the red, white and blue on the money or puck line, congrats.

What the Bracket Buster proved

The Colonial Athletic Conference is normally a dependable league; with above average teams for a so-called mid-major, but after this past weekend, the conference has as many long faces per capita as Canada. The CAA was 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS among its membership. The really bad news was the seven teams with a .500 or better in league play were 2-5 and unfathomable 1-6 ATS. In each case, when the game was on the line, none of these teams stepped up and the only club that looked like they could win a NCAA Tournament game was Virginia Commonwealth, who has a big man in Larry Sanders and a pressing defense that could make runs in games.

Playing at Butler is hardly a fun trip for any team (ask Ohio State), nevertheless when you are presented with opportunity, you have to make the most of it. Siena did not and was completely outclassed in the second half, being outscored 42-22 in 17-point loss. The Saints are a nice team at 22-6 and 14-10-2 ATS, however they lack the skill and athleticism to be considered a team that could pull a first round upset should they make the tournament.

Utah State and Northern Iowa both looked capable, however they would need to be matched against teams without superior athletes who tend to play out of control to win a NCAA game or two.

Big Ten beat goes on

The Big Ten Conference has returned to prominence this season, with four teams that are an absolute lock to make the field and two others that still have to do a bit more work. One aspect clear in this league, the contenders put so much effort into beating one another; they have little energy to keep it going.

It started with Illinois, after upsetting Michigan State and Wisconsin, the tank was empty against Ohio State and was throttled at home 72-53. The Buckeyes were nearly perfect at Champaign and returned home to face Purdue. Except for about 10 total minutes, the Buckeyes were outplayed by Purdue and lost as favorites at home 60-57.

The Boilermakers played brilliantly at Columbus, but made Illinois look like Elite 8 team for 30 minutes on their home floor. Senior Keaton Grant kept Purdue in the game and in the end, Robbie Hummel and E’Twaun Moore started to score, as the Boilers won but failed to cover. Michigan State was starting to look like they had their house in order after winning and covering on the road against Penn State and Indiana and they return to East Lansing ready to…..shoot 41.3 percent, be outrebounded by six and fall 74-67 to Ohio State as four point home favorites. Go figure.

Random mumbling

Vanderbilt was a popular play against Kentucky, but 2-20 from beyond the arc closed the door on the Commodores bid to take down No. 2. It was really the first time the Wildcats played like youngsters for prolonged periods, but John Wall and Patrick Patterson were money when it counted.

I wouldn’t discount Vandy as being a good tournament team however; they have weapons to score despite bad shooting night and proved they can D-it up also.

UTEP is 20-5 (11-10 ATS) and has 10-game winning streak. Their worst loss of the season was at Houston, at least by team’s ability and they have a number of ways to score along with quickness and size.

According to my sources, there is no truth to the blog rumor that the top two teams from the Pac-10 will be involved in the Tuesday plan-in game before for the NCAA tourney.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play On all teams like UConn when the line is +3 to -3, who are solid defensive team holding opponent to 40 percent or less shooting, against an average defensive team (42.5-45%) after 15+ games, and they are average ball handling team (14.5-17.5 turnovers) against a poor pressure defensive team forcing 14.5 or less turnovers. This system has been around since 1997 and is 55-19 ATS, 74.3 percent including 5-0 this year.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) If you like the Pacers, here are two more reasons to like them. Indiana is 10-0 ATS off a double digit win as a road underdog of six more and Dallas is 3-12 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Slick Rick is 33-19 the last eight days and is on Utah tonight.

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This Big Monday, check out the ranked clubs

West Virginia and Kansas are both highly ranked teams as they have been all year and both will be in action Monday night looking to hang on to their lofty status. Because their seems to be no great teams in college basketball, there are a number of very good clubs that can still improve and each will be looking to do just that with the NCAA bids coming out in less than three weeks. Sports bettors can review what kind of progress each is making.

West Virginia at Connecticut 7:00E ESPN

Coaches in all sports will often talk about moving on to the next game, not dwelling too long on a win or loss. However, anyone who has ever spoken to a coach of any kind will know these fellows have long memories and think about the “what if” possibilities all the time. Coach Bob Huggins team is only one game behind second place Villanova in the loss column starting tonight and could do 30 minutes reciting all the ways the Mountaineers (21-5, 11-14 ATS) could have avoided two point loss to Notre Dame, one point loss to Syracuse and double overtime defeat to rival Pittsburgh, which really would have placed them in the thick of Big East race. But Huggins like most coaches will revert to task at hand at Connecticut and West Virginia is 6-3 and 4-5 ATS on the road.

It still looks like an outside shot, yet Connecticut (10-14-1 ATS) has renewed hope for NCAA berth with a victory. The Huskies have two imposing road wins over Rutgers and Villanova and four more victories takes them to 20-11 and a semi-final appearance in the Big East tournament would place them in excellent position. UConn is 6-1 ATS off a SU win and guard Kemba Walker has ignited this club and former starter Alex Oriakhi has been a spark off the bench. The return of Jim Calhoun has helped also, for Huskies team that is 13-3 at home (5-9 ATS).

DiamondSportsbook.com has West Virginia as three-point favorite with total of 134.5. The Mountaineers have won and covered four of previous six games, nonetheless is 3-6 ATS on the year after covering the spread and is 8-3-1 OVER away from Morgantown. Connecticut has covered the spread the last four times they have taken on clubs that win better than 60 percent of road games and are 4-0 OVER to start a new work week.

The Huskies have been howling with a 6-2 ATS mark vs. the ‘Teers.

Oklahoma at Kansas 9:00E ESPN

Kansas (26-1, 10-13-1 ATS) is trying to sweep the Big 12 this year with its talented club and has three remaining games that will put them to the test, however that doesn’t begin until Feb.27, as they figure to have little resistance against Oklahoma (13-13, 9-14 ATS). The Jayhawks may not always play their best, but master recruiter and motivator Bill Self always finds a reason for the team or individual players to test themselves to perform at a higher level. The high flying Jayhawks are 19-5 ATS when they score 81 or more points in a game over the last two years.

To say it has been an eventful campaign in Norman, is like saying the Mid-Atlantic States have seen a little snow the last few weeks. Losing streaks, selfish play, underachieving players, suspensions, you name it, coach Jeff Caple has been going up and the emotional elevator all season. If there has been a bright spot on dismal year, it has been the late maturation and emergence of freshman guard Tommy Mason-Griffin. Opposing teams have picked up on Mason-Griffin is a deadly three-point shooter and been forced to account for him, opening up areas in the lane for the Sooners to have easier shoots. Oklahoma will need him and others since they are 13-25 ATS as an underdog the last few years.

Kansas has covered the spread just once on last seven tries, though could have on at least two other occasions, opening up big leads against large numbers and coasting to victory. The Jayhawks are 22-point favorites with total of 147.5 and are 16-5 ATS in last 21 Monday assignments. It will be intriguing to see what kind of fight Oklahoma actually has as the basketball program, since they have mirrored their football brethren from this past season and are 15-36-3 ATS on the road.

Kansas has swept six straight over the Sooners at Allen Fieldhouse with .500 spread record and own the nation’s longest home winning streak at 57 games and the UNDER is 6-2 in Lawrence for Boomer Sooner’s last eight visits.

All Systems go for NBA Monday

The Utah Jazz are the hottest team in the NBA, winners of 13 of 14 (11-2-1 ATS) and last four in a row, all on the road. They return home against Atlanta who is wrapping up their four game road trip, who has the edge? For the answer to this and other NBA betting edges, read on about today’s top system plays in professional hoops. Numbers from DiamondSportsbook.com.

Chicago (-3, 201) at Washington

Even with an eye on next season already, Chicago Bulls’ players are focused on the present. The Bulls front office has made trades freeing cap space to go after at least one of the enticing free agents in the market place after the season, however the current collection of players have covered seven of eight and five in a row. For tonight’s matchup, the total draws the most attention since road teams with a total of 200 or higher, off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, against opponent after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, are 32-10 OVER since 1996.

Milwaukee (+1.5, 206.5) at New York

The New York Knicks have lost six straight and almost won as Tracy McGrady made his debut in the Knicks uniform, falling 121-118 to Oklahoma City Saturday night. Having lost three of four at home to Milwaukee, tonight’s situation does not set up much better as teams revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a home favorite, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, are 43-70 ATS since 2004-05, including all six this year.

Indiana (+9, 208.5) at Dallas

The Dallas Mavericks have a run of the mill home record at 17-9; however they are positively disgusting or delightful, depending on what side you wager on them, with a league worst 6-20 ATS home record. Everything doesn’t figure to improve immediately, since home teams playing their fifth game in a week, with a win percent of 60 to 75 percent, playing a team with a losing record, are 20-55 the last 12 years.

Atlanta (+5, 196) at Utah

Both teams are playing their third game in four days, with one obvious distinction; Atlanta has lost their last two, while Utah has won not only previous two, but four in a row. That in theory at least gives the Jazz the edge as home teams covering the spread in four or more consecutive games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 31-7 ATS.

Let's continue the winning on Sunday

We took our record to 17-6 in most recent plays after 2-1 Saturday. We bid farewell to Kyle for now, thanks for the nice run. In his place is Slick Rick, hitting 60 percent this week and he likes a Big East underdog. The Top Trend is 89.4 percent and we have a 31-7 totals play in nationally televised tilt. Good Luck

What I thought Saturday – Will have more to say on Monday.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Over on teams like Boston when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, scoring 98-102 PPG, against a defensive team surrendering 102 or more PPG, after allowing 85 points or less. This total system is 31-7, 81.6 percent the last 14 years.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Oklahoma City is 17-2 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season, winning by 7.9 PPG.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Slick Rick is 30-18 the last week in all his bets and prefers Marquette with the points.

Viewable Sunday Afternoon NBA Action

Four division leaders will collide on ABC this afternoon, kind of a playoff primer if you will. The first is a rematch of last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, with Cleveland traveling south to Orlando to try and continue to prove to their loss was a mistake and they are indeed the better team. Later, Boston wraps up their five game road trip in the Mile High City. Two top tilts, lots of wagering options.

I must punish you for past misdeeds

The Cleveland Cavaliers (43-13, 28-27-1 ATS) lost to Orlando in six games in the East Finals and didn’t sit by idly feeling sorry for itself. They were no match for the Magic and Dwight Howard and picked up the one available big man that could be difference-maker in Shaquille O'Neal. The Cavs with LeBron James, have the best record in the NBA and have faced the Magic twice this year, beating them each time while covering the spread.

For the Cavaliers, that wasn’t not enough, which is why they made the trade for forward Antawn Jamison, who can play the jazzy named "stretch 4" position, which is a power forward who can stretch the defense out to the three-point line. (Pretty cool) The Cleveland front office believes once Leon Powe is activated, they have the necessary parts to not only beat Orlando, but take the whole enchilada. The Cavs arrive in central Florida 19-9 and 16-11-1 ATS on the road.

The Magic players acknowledge Cleveland up the ante. "They made themselves better," said Rashard Lewis said after hearing about the trade. "They wanted to match up with me, or down to me, but I'm not their matchup problem. It's the big fellow (Dwight Howard) over there." Lewis averaged 18.3 points and shot 48.4 percent from 3-point range in the conference final against Cleveland last spring.

However, just because you’re comfortable does mean it’s a done deal and Orlando (38-19, 26-26-4 ATS) is still the defending East champs. "They already were the best team in the East, by far, and this makes them stronger," said Magic forward Matt Barnes. "But we're not going to hold our heads down. We're still confident we can beat them."

Orlando is 21-6 at home (13-13-1 ATS) and plays into double revenge and is a two-point favorite at DiamondSportsbook.com with total of 195. The Magic as a less than magical 8-20 ATS off a double digit home loss which they suffered to Dallas (95-85) on Friday and are 22-8 UNDER off a loss. Cleveland is usually an angry club off a whipping (like they felt at Charlotte 110-93) and is 22-6 ATS off a double digit defeat.

This matinee starts at 1:00 Eastern and the Cavaliers are 10-4-1 OVER since Jan. 16.

Denver a Mile High Headache

The Nuggets are fairly perky again after trudging into Cleveland and ending the Cavs 13-game winning streak. Carmelo Anthony upstaged James at crunch time, scoring his 39th and 40th points to break a 116-116 tie with a jumper with 1.9 seconds remaining in overtime to give Denver the win at Cleveland on Thursday night.

"A lot of people got some good pictures out of that moment," Anthony said. "I wanted the ball. I made the shot." Denver (36-19, 25-27-3 ATS) followed that up with dud at Washington, losing by 10 and return home where they are 23-5 (14-13-1 ATS) at the Pepsi Center.

Boston (35-18, 21-31-1 ATS) checks into Denver 3-1 on road trip, looking to return home on a very positive note. The Celtics have been scuffling plenty the last two months (12-13 SU and 8-16-1 ATS), nevertheless are showing signs of returning to earlier form with 6-2 record in February.

Boston hopes to get something immediately out of their newest player Nate Robinson. "He gives us speed, No. 1," coach Doc Rivers said. "He gives us another ball-handler. And he gives us a guy that can have a night. When guys go flat, he's a guy that can create shots without a play (or) after a play has broken down, on a ball swing. The other thing he does is gives us defense. He can pressure the ball. We can use lineups with (Rajon) Rondo and Nate at times against certain teams. The ball pressure alone will be phenomenal."

Denver is a four-point favorite with total of 198 and is 7-1 ATS off a spread failure and 5-1 UNDER in previous six with a day off between games. Boston is a boastful 51-22-1 as a visiting dog and is 8-1 UNDER in last nine, including six in a row.

This encounter is slated for 3:30 Eastern start with the home team 7-2 ATS.