Perspective thoughts

I’ve run out of time before the games are starting tonight to go into great depth about are the best sides and totals from 3Daily Winners, however have had good material about the NBA for today. I’d like to share an experience I had in college basketball wagering this season.

Last night’s trifling loss concluded my CBB season at 183-150, +18 SU units. (I’m dropping pushes) While I’ve had better records on a season, I’ve never been more proud of what I accomplished since on Jan. 23, I was 36-54, a +51 game turnaround.

In addition, I was down over 57 units and ended up officially +46.2 units for the year. Most satisfy. My main point is to keep working hard at whatever you do to be the best you can be. I couldn’t have been in any worse shape, but I rethought what I was doing and changed my approach, if not my methods.

While the world focuses on being No.1 because they believe that’s all that matters, the fact is persevering can be even more satisfying.

What I thought yesterday- What a game last night!

From a coaching perspective, the chess game was really a thing of beauty asboth Coach K and Stevens made a number of tactical moves that were brilliant. I don’t know if you noticed but Butler had a very clear intent to touch/foul Duke after every regular jump shot attempt. Their intent of course was to make the Blue Devils players aware they were going to be right on them and Coach K was pissed near the end of the first half about it.

Midway thru the second half, officials started to pay closer attention and called two fouls and the Bulldogs backed off.

In a world that loves the underdog, I was rooting for Duke. The amount of money I wagered was peanuts and I have not one thing against Butler, but I admire people or business’ that have built something and are able to maintain it at or near the top for long periods. (Legally of course)

If you noticed Coach K was shaking his head in disbelief that his team actually had won the national championship and I’m sure he realized in that moment, this was an improbable collection of players to win a title and it might have been his least talented team in his eight title game appearances.

While unemployment continues to run high and many others fear for their jobs because of potential cuts by employer, what must it be like to be Brad Stevens today? He’ll decide when it time to go, but what a future he’s set for himself.

Tuesday's Top NBA Systems

The professional basketball regular season is rapidly drawing to a close and after an off day, nine games are back on the schedule. Five of these matchups in particular have caught our attention, each with a system that has proven to be a very good winner over time, including a totals system that is 82.1 percent. Sides and totals from Bookmaker.com.

Toronto (+6, 206) at Cleveland

The system for this Eastern Conference matchup is sound, with home favorites having a +7 or more point differential 29-10 ATS against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after a loss by six points or less. The problem is the Cavaliers have wrapped up almost everything they need for the playoffs, with the best record in the league a formality at this juncture. Reports have LeBron James as questionable and the line has fallen three points to present level.

Boston (-7.5, 208.5) at New York

For all the grief the Celtics have taken this year for bring too old, one constant since Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen hit town has been their play on the road within the division. Boston is 21-1 and 17-5 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents and they are in favorable position this evening as well. Play Against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who allow 99 or points a game on the season, against opponent after allowing 105 points or more two straight games. This system is mouth-watering 50-19 ATS the last 14 years.

Milwaukee (+6, 189) at Chicago

The Bucks suffered a devastating loss when center Andrew Bogut had an ugly and awkward fall on breakaway dunk against Phoenix, in which he suffered a broken hand, dislocated elbow and sprained wrist. Milwaukee will have to press on without him, still trying to move into fifth position in the East. Chicago (37-39 SU) is fighting for its playoff life, trailing Toronto by a game for the last position in the conference, having won six of eight after 10-game losing streak. When the total is between 180 and 189.5 points and the home team has a winning percentage between 40-49 percent on the season, in April games, the OVER is 39-16.

Oklahoma City (+6, 213) at Utah

With just five games left, Utah and Denver are in a dead heat for the Northwest Division lead at 50-27. The Jazz get a tough opponent in Oklahoma City, who has won four in a row and six of seven and is only one game behind in the loss column to Utah and three other teams in the West. However, road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, having covered five or six of their last seven against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 27- 63 ATS the past five years, including lamentable 2-9 ATS this season.

San Antonio (-6.5, 193) at Sacramento

The Spurs are playing their best basketball of the season, having won five of six facing a schedule built to cause teams to fail. San Antonio laid out the Lakers on Easter 100-81 and this late-season rush has a more offensive-minded club, ranked 14th at 101.2 points per contest. The Spurs continue their three game Western sojourn in Sacramento, who is 26th in points allowed in the NBA at 104.2. Consider the total when the number is between 190 and 199.5 points and a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) takes on a horrible defensive team (102 or more PPG), after allowing 85 points or less. The play is the OVER, with 32-7 record since 1996.

Last exit to make NHL postseason

The hockey season is down to a precious few days and several teams have been fighting for survival just to make the playoffs, let alone worrying about what happens when they get there. Each conference has teams fighting to hang on or struggling to get in, looking to join the chase for the Stanley Cup. Here is look at the possibilities for all the contenders.

Eastern teams presently in

Montreal, Boston and Philadelphia occupy slots six thru eight in the Eastern Conference. Canadiens coach Jacques Martin has all but confirmed that Jaroslav Halak will be the starting goaltender for the remainder of the regular season. Montreal is 19-20 SU on the road and has winnable games at the New York Islanders and at Carolina before returning home to close the season against Toronto. Montreal should emerge as sixth seed.

After finishing second in goals scored a year ago in the NHL, the Bruins have been last most of the season putting the puck in the net and their only saving grace has been defense, with only New Jersey allowing fewer goals. Boston has home games against Buffalo and Carolina; however that isn’t necessarily a good thing for team that is 3-14 SU on home ice since Winter Classic at Fenway Park. Boston’s last game at Washington may be critical, however the Capitals might not bring best effort having wrapped up everything for the playoffs.

Philadelphia has lost nine of last 12 and has placed itself in precarious position. The Flyers can determine their own fate playing home and home with the New York Rangers whom they lead by a point in the standings. Right now Philadelphia also has an edge in a tie-breaker, with the first aspect looked at being number of wins.

Eastern teams trying to move up

The Rangers have won five of six including last three in a row and could use wins over Buffalo and Toronto to set up “all in” matchups with the Flyers. “We do not want to be the New York Rangers team that didn't make the playoffs," Brandon Dubinsky told the New York Post. "That's really important to us.”

Atlanta had a brutal close to the season schedule-wise, facing Washington and Pittsburgh twice along with taking on New Jersey. The Thrashers already lost to the Caps and Penguins last week and have to come up with six points in final three games to realistically even have a chance. Against this type of competition, that could be too tall an order.

Western teams presently in

Detroit has placed themselves in good position in the West, winning 10 of 13 and being as healthy as they have been all season. Rookie Jimmy Howard’s fine play between the pipes is the biggest reason why the Red Wings have gone from being a shaky participant to virtually in and has two matchups with Columbus that should give them the stamp of approval.

Of all the teams fighting to make the postseason, the Los Angeles Kings are the most impressive on their body of work for the year. The Kings are +22 in goal differential, basically the same as New Jersey and Phoenix, both who are comfortably in the playoff picture. L.A. can end Anaheim’s faint hopes with a victory and should earn two easy points hosting Edmonton before closing out the regular season at Colorado.

The Avalanche is gasping for air having tumbled to eighth in the West standings, by virtue of losing seven of nine. This young squad by appearances is just worn out from a long season after playing beyond expectations most of the year, which is evident on the defensive end, conceding three or more goals in all but one of their defeats. Playing at Edmonton should be a win; however with games at Vancouver, plus Chicago and the Kings on home ice, nothing is secured yet. The Avs are 24-15 SU on home ice which could help.

Western teams trying to move up

Calgary is attempting to make late charge, winning six of last 10, but its anemic offense will have to come up big vs. San Jose, Minnesota and at Vancouver to sneak into the playoffs.
Anaheim and St. Louis mathematically are still alive; however each has to win remaining contests to even get a sniff.

My Personal Title Game Play

The big moment has arrived and you have seen every conceivable angle about how the NCAA title game will play out. The Left Coast Connection members are 16 -9 on Butler with the points and the Under 10-3 from those that are betting it.

Personally I think the number is correct and this is one title game I don’t have definite feel for. What I’m about to tell is not super compelling, yet this is among the reasons I’m betting Duke at -7 at 1*. (I'm 15-5-1 ATS in the tournament)

When Butler shoots under 40 percent this season, they are pedestrian 4-3 ATS in next contest. When Duke shoots over 50 percent they are 4-1 ATS the following game, meaning at least to me they have a good carry over.

In common opponents this year, Butler is -4 in point differential, while the Blue Devils are +7.3.

Duke’s size is part of the difference they collar the Bulldogs and they drain free throws to win by 10 in the last few minutes.

For those that were not here a year ago, I finished No.1 at Free Sports Monitor and The Sports Eye in baseball last season with 178-124 record, good for +32.80 units.

Though I’m excited for MLB action, I take it slow the first couple of weeks, letting the season unfold, as there are lots of surprise teams and upsets early on. Everyone should play how they are most comfortable and this works for me. If you are not receiving my FREE plays, you are missing out, look to the right and sign up on email list.

As opposed to college hoops and NBA this past season, I’m ready with knowledge about baseball.

Enjoy the game tonight.

Blue Monday for Butler and Duke

It comes down to this. Yahoo Sports probably had it best with this headline –David vs. Duke. The lovable Butler Bulldogs have captured college basketball’s imagination with its improbable run to the national championship game with a coach and its best player looking younger than next year’s incoming recruiting class. Big bad Duke, sort of the New York Yankees of the hardwood, is loved by their fans hated by everyone else.

This is setting up as the sequel of “Hoosiers”, just in modern day. A band of talented young men led a by a coach who looks like an AAU coach just out of college goes to the sports title game in the school’s home city and nearby Hinkle Fieldhouse (the team’s real home) is replaced by Lucas Oil Stadium. This is so ridiculous a movie producer would can the screen play as a joke.

There is no joking about the talent of Gordon Hayward, who had 19 points and nine rebounds in the first Final Four contest and was the calmest player you will ever see when introduced for a big game. Butler (33-4, 17-20 ATS) has won 25 contents in a row and knocked off Syracuse, Kansas State and Michigan State, after many had believed they could have lost to UTEP or Murray State in their first two encounters of this tournament.

Even losing coach Tom Izzo was impressed.

“If I was not playing, I'd be a Butler fan," Michigan State coach Tom Izzo said. "I like they way they play, I like their story. They play like a Big Ten team." The Bulldogs are now 26-14 ATS in non-conference games over the last three seasons.

Duke’s return to prominence has some people feeling blue. The Blue Devils (34-5, 23-14-1 ATS) are back, playing with that confidence that comes from wearing a uniform that many consider a four-letter word. Coach Mike Krzyzewski had his team so well prepared it looked like a scrimmage against West Virginia at various points of the game.

Duke regularly solved the Mountaineers switching defense, getting a number of shot attempts within four feet of the rim. Once West Virginia players became overly conscious of Blue Devils players on the inside, it was target practice, as the Big 3 (Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer) shredded their defense on 12 for 23 shooting behind the three-point line.

The Blue Devils are 19-11 ATS after playing four consecutive games as favorite this season and know this isn’t about just three players shooting the ball well.

“We won this game as a team," Singler said. "It wasn't just put on my shoulders, or Jon's or Nolan's. We won this game from all sides contributing."

Part of the team is a man possessed, center Brian Zoubek who again pulled down 10 rebounds. His determination, which borders on serious anger, has him pulling down rebounds like mad man from a Rob Zombie movie. As Duke goes after its fourth national championship for Coach K, this is how Zoubek feels. “This is the culmination of four years for me. To have a shot at the championship my senior year, after everything we've been through, is a dream come true."

Duke was near perfect against West Virginia and they are 9-1 ATS after a game committing eight or less turnovers which plays a part why DiamondSportsbook.com has them as 7.5-point favorites, with total of 128.5. Coach Krzyzewski is making sure everyone knows that despite Butler not having the brand recognition of the team he coach’s, this opponent is no fairy tale.

“I think they're one of the best teams in the country," Krzyzewski said of Butler. "I think a Cinderella would be more if somebody had eight or nine losses and pulled some upsets." The Devils are 12-5 ATS versus defensive teams allowing 64 or fewer points a game this season and are 8-1 UNDER after they’ve made 50 percent or more of their three-point shots the last three years.

Butler could start this game at a real disadvantage, considering Duke’s size and rebounding ability. Forward Matt Howard did not practice with his team Sunday and is a "game-time decision" according to his coach Brad Stevens. Howard is averaging 12.3 points and 5.4 rebounds per game and would be sorely missed. Butler guard Shelvin Mack said he suffered cramps and will be ready.

Butler’s help-defense has become the talk of the tournament, along with its incredible patience on offense, which is why they are 12-5 ATS after one or more Under’s this year. The Bulldogs are 11-2 OVER after scoring 60 points or less.

This matchup seems real simple, Butler cannot shoot 30.6 percent like they did against the Spartans and they cannot allow Duke to convert 52.7 percent as they did vs. West Virginia. If the Blue Devils are raining shots, Duke covers and wins convincingly. However, if the Bulldogs find three players to make shots consistently, box-out effectively to draw Duke fouls, where they can march to the charity stripe and convert 73.8 percent like they have all season, well, it is game on.

No matter what, one team will be blue and green with envy.

Now to Baseball's Real Opening Day

The made for TV part of the beginning of the baseball season was last night, today we move ahead to the 13 parks stuffed with fans, the aroma of people grilling a collection of wonder foods and everyone is in good mood because baseball is back. This is yet another sign that warmer weather and outdoor activities are on the way and the local nine has yet to disappoint one person, plus the activity of watching scores from out-of-town ads to the experience. Let the romance begin with five nationally televised games.

St. Louis at Cincinnati 1:10E ESPN

No better place to start baseball than in Cincinnati, the first professional baseball team that started way back in 1869, then known as Red Stockings. While no one expects this Cincinnati team to start the way their predecessor did (the Red Stockings won 130 consecutive games from 1969-70), the Reds have good young talent with the likes of Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce.

Aaron Harang makes his fifth consecutive Opening Day start and believes he’s made enough mechanical tweaks to fix what has caused him to lose 31 total games the two years. Harang is 7-10 with 4.54 ERA against St. Louis.

The Cardinals are favorites to win the NL Central, with the best hitter in baseball in Albert Pujols, now backed with coverage for the entire season by Matt Holiday. St. Louis also has arguably the best pitcher in the National League in Cris Carpenter who gets the start. The Cy Young runner-up last year is also making his fifth start in an opener and is 7-3 with low 2.11 ERA against the Reds.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Cards as -150 money line favorites, with total Un7.5. Carpenter is 39-22 in road games in the first half of the season in his career. This is the first time these two teams have squared off in game one of a new season since 1994.

Cleveland at Chicago White Sox 2:05E ESPN2

The Indians are being picked last in the AL Central by many baseball experts. That doesn’t mean the Indians are devoid of talent with CF Grady Sizemore, DH Travis Hafner, Shin-Soo Choo, SS Asdrubal Cabrera and players dripping with potential in Matt LaPorta and outfielder Michael Brantley. Pitching is the big concern in Cleveland and Jake Westbrook is the game one starter for the first time is five seasons. The Tribe is +160 money line road underdog with total at Un9 and Westbrook is 11-28 on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5. (Team's Record)

The White Sox open 2010 more athletic and presumably better defensively. They also have four very good starting pitchers which is why they should be competing for the division title. One of them is Mark Buehrle, making his franchise-record eighth Opening Day start, previously shared with Billy Pierce. The left-hander threw a perfect game last season and set a Major League record of 45 straight batters retired. Beuhrle is 76-46 all-time at U.S. Cellular Field and is 82-41 as a favorite of -125 to -175. (White Sox Record)

Chicago Cubs at Atlanta 4:10E ESPN

The Cubs and Braves enter 2010 with buoyed enthusiasm. Chicago got rid of clubhouse cancer Milton Bradley and added Marlon Byrd and Xavier Nady to their outfield mix, looking for more production. Manager Lou Pinella is hoping the injury bug stays away and that a 15 pounds lighter Carlos Zambrano can rebound from off year. Chicago is a +120 road dog and was undesirable 8-27 as an underdog of +100 to +150 last season, however Cubs fans could be mildly optimistic since Big Z is 41-20 as visitor when the total is 8.5 to 10. (Cubs Record)

Atlanta made bullpen modifications they believe will lead to more victories in skipper Bobby Cox swan song season. The venerable Cox likes his starting pitching and is excited about 20-year-old phenom Jason Heyward who brings power and speed to the Braves. Atlanta is 93-57 UNDER in the first half of the season over the last two seasons and Derek Lowe will be the Braves first hurler to toe the rubber.

San Francisco at Houston 7:05E ESPN2

The Giants look to take the next step after startling 88-win campaign and be in the hunt for division crown. Having back to back Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum is a wonderful place to start and the front office thinks Mark DeRosa and Aubrey Huff will help the offense generate more runs, after averaging only 4.1 per game in 2009.

The best news out of Houston is new manager Brad Mills is earning glowing praise with his positive energy, however not one game has mattered yet. The pitching staff has been bolstered with Brandon Lyon, Brett Myers and Matt Lindstrom. Unfortunately, Lance Berkman begins the year on the DL. The Astros will have Roy Oswalt making his eighth consecutive Opening Day start, but his club is 2-5 in those contests despite a solid 3.35 from the right-hander, whose been nursing a sore left hamstring.

Houston is a +120 money line home underdog with total Un7, nonetheless the ‘Stros won all eight of Oswalt’s assignments against the NL West last season. San Francisco has to be considered dangerous anyways, with 40-22 mark when a -150 favorite or less and Lincecum is 2-0 with 1.67 ERA vs. Houston.

Minnesota at L.A. Angels 10:05E ESPN2

Only one game features division champions on Opening Day and that is in Anaheim with Minnesota beginning with the Angels. These two squads are different than a season ago, one presumably for the better and the other to be determined.

The Twins have a new combination up the middle with shortstop J.J. Hardy and 2B Orlando Hudson and Jim Thome returns to the AL Central as DH for Minnesota. Scott Baker is off a 15-win season, reestablishing himself as the masthead of the staff and he earns the Twins opening start. Baker is 0-4 in six starts in Anaheim with 5.59 ERA. The late innings will look a lot different for Minnesota fans with Joe Nathan gone for the year, setting up bullpen by committee with Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Jon Rauch and Jesse Crain.

The Angels suffered some real blows in losing John Lackey, Vladimir Guerrero and Chone Figgins to other American League clubs and look to pick up the prices adding Joel Pineiro, Hideki Matsui and Brandon Wood in their places. The new lead-dog for the Halos is Jered Weaver, who is a laid-back Cali type, a far cry from Lackey’s bulldog tendencies. Nevertheless, Weaver is 27-12 at the Big A and big reason why the Angles are -130 money line choice with total listed at Ov7. The Twins were 27-11 UNDER in the in the first half of the last season.

MLB 2010 Previews

American League East

Now the breaking news: Yankees and Red Sox favored in American East, more details as soon as they are available. OK, a little too much hype for stating the obvious. This division has the two best clubs in baseball (sorry Philadelphia) and everyone else is chasing. Tampa Bay has made improvements, but likely has to hope for injuries into order to make playoffs as wild card. Baltimore is two years ahead of Toronto in rebuilding process, thus avoids the division’s lowest floor.

Baltimore Orioles

Strengths: Finally understanding you can’t buy a pennant (let alone a division crown) competing with the New York Yankees. Andy MacPhail was brought in as president of baseball operations and immediately put the people in place that started doing a better job in finding talent. Baltimore has a number of pitchers that either are or will be on the Major League 25-man roster soon and the outfield is set with four solid players in the program. Matt Weiters is the trumpeted catcher ready to be a leader.

Weaknesses: Save Brian Roberts, the infield doesn’t earn rave reviews. The bullpen doesn’t fall into the category of “shorten the game” and depth is almost nonexistent.

Rotation Outlook: Kevin Millwood and Jeremy Guthrie will be who the Birds young pitchers lean on during trying times. Millwood lowered his ERA by almost 40 percent getting into better shape and quit nibbling; he should do at least as well in bigger park, with run production less in Orioles uniform. Keep an eye on Guthrie after K’s were down and hits were up in losing 17 games. Good young arms that need innings otherwise.

Bullpen Situation: Mike Gonzalez is likely closer after falling out of favor in Atlanta. In order to keep job, needs calmer demeanor on the mound and handle adversity better. Jim Johnson has unorthodox delivery and can pitch in variety of roles, increasing his value.

Bookmaker.com Season Wins Prop: Over 74/Under 74

3Daily Winners Take: Definitely a better team, but until they prove they won’t make mistakes that the cost them games, it’s hard to see them mounting 74 wins, something they haven’t done since 2005.

Projected Finish: 4th in AL East

Take to the bank: If the Birds lose 61 road games again, even 70 wins would be a stretch.

Boston Red Sox

Strengths: When you have won 93 or more games six of the last seven years, you have a good organization that understands what it takes to win and stay at the highest levels of the game. Theo Epstein and Terry Francona find players that are “gamers” who are full effort guys the lead by example. A corral of young arms is always coming thru the farm system, to be used on the big club or as trade bait to fill a need. Of course having the Yankees as a foil only makes everyone work harder.

Weaknesses: A lack of star power as part of the everyday lineup. Players like Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis are overachievers more than anything. Lineup doesn’t have a great deal of power unless a slimmed down David Ortiz delivers.

Rotation Outlook: The old line of –You can never have enough starting pitching- is what convinced Boston to sign John Lackey. The former Angel has to make the mental adjustment to being the No. 3 starter after being the ace in Anaheim. Josh Beckett and Jon Lester are two power pitchers capable of mowing hitters for innings. Francona is counting on Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka to come around mentally as much as physically to help the Red Sox. Catcher Victor Martinez is under pressure to handle this staff properly after so many years with Jason Varitek.

Bullpen Situation: Having Jonathan Papelbon and Daniel Bard in place is a situation any manager would like to turn to. Getting to this twosome is the only real question if a starter has an off day.

Bookmaker.com Season Wins Prop: Over 94.5/Under 94.5

3DW Take: This total is almost impossible wager since luck more than skill will determine the outcome over 162-game season. Forced to choose I’ll go Under with offense not quite as good as needed to overcome Yankees in head to head battles.

Projected Finish: 2nd in AL East

Take to the bank: As good as they are, can the BoSox really go 22-6 again as -200 or higher money line favorites?

New York Yankees

Strengths: To Yankees fans, order was restored winning their 27th World Series. Based on how the table is set, defending their title is a real possibility. All the notables are still in pinstripes and the addition of Curtis Ganderson in centerfield, Nick Johnson as left-handed DH and pitcher Javier Vazquez makes New York look even stronger on paper. You’ll notice also, with Hank Steinbrenner the figurehead, everything is much quieter and the Yankees seem almost likable to many more people. (I did say almost)

Weaknesses: The Yankees did lose middle relievers that ended up being very effectual in the second half of the season. Derek Jeter is the current version of “Mr. Yankee” but no shortstop has less range in the baseball as the years total up according to sabermetricians. Catcher Jorge Posado would be a welcome DH on many teams, since his catching skills continue to diminish.
Rotation Outlook: It has to be very comforting to C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett to know their teammates are going to bat no matter how they perform. This pair could well be better pitchers this year, more relaxed, not worried about living up to fat contracts and having the satisfaction of being champions. Andy Pettitte and Vazquez are vets who know how to pitch and Phil Hughes won the No. 5 starter slot.

Bullpen Situation: Manager Joe Girardi will figure out middle relief as the season wears own, made easier having Jobs Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera. Enough said.

Bookmaker.com Season Wins Prop: Over 95.5/Under 95.5

3DW Take: Certain players like Jeter, Posada and A-Rod are year older and might not as effective, but a Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano and Granderson can help out and keep the Bronx Bombers hitting machine churning. Betting over feels risky when it’s the highest total to wager on, however this again looks like a team easily capable of 100 or more victories.

Projected Finish: 1st in AL East

Take to the bank: Yankees can’t possibly improve on 45-13 record in games decided by two or three runs.

Tampa Bay Rays

Strengths: Around the horn, this might be the best infield in the majors considering hitting and fielding. From 1B Carlos Pena to 3B Evan Longoria, power, speed and flashy leather abounds. At 28, Carl Crawford is one of the best left-fielders in baseball. The starting pitchers had to deal with expectations as year ago after playing in World Series and should be better mentally equipped to handle the load.

Weaknesses: Pitching nevertheless is still a concern, wondering if they actually will mature. Bullpen needs improvement as does catcher Dioner Navarro and increasingly enigmatic CF B.J. Upton, who needs to bring lunch pail to work. The fans, Tampa drew less than 100,000 new people to the park after going to World Series.

Rotation Outlook: James Shields and Matt Garza both had losing records at the top of the rotation for team that still managed 84 wins. For the Rays to eat at the big boys table, this duo has to be at 30 wins or more, not 20. Jeff Niemann is 6’9 and pounds the lower legions of the strike zone. He and ultra-talented David Price could make this staff special being able to win a vast number of series.

Bullpen Situation: After brilliant 2008, serious regression last season. Manager Joe Maddon has stated Rafael Soriano is just the type of closer this club needs. Getting Dan Wheeler and others back on track puts Tampa Bay back in AL East contention.

Bookmaker.com Season Wins Prop: Over 89/Under 89

3DW Take: Two years ago, this looked like team that would contend for years with Boston and New York. However, the lack of interest by fans in the Tampa area means continued counting of nickels and dimes. With Crawford and Pena up for free agency after the season, this team has to win now. With starting pitching a little iffy, 87 wins is thought to be high water mark.

Projected Finish: 3rd in AL East

Take to the bank: The Rays won’t sniff 87 wins if they only win 32 games on the road like they did last season.

Toronto Blue Jays

Strengths: Losing Ray Halladay would be a blow to any team; however they wouldn’t have led the majors in ERA in 2008 if they didn’t have other pitchers that could throw competently. Last season, Toronto was just bitten by the injury bug, they had total infestation. Many, if not all pitchers are expected to return and the others will come around soon. The organization accepts they have to rebuild after finishing the season 48-73, which is the only way to compete with New York and Boston in the AL East in the coming years. Aaron Hill will look to match last year’s breakout season of 36 home runs and 108 RBI’s.

Weaknesses: Every day lineup has overpaid underachievers like Vernon Wells and Lyle Overbay, both need to start earning their keep. The bullpen really wore down being called into action too frequently with all the injuries and nothing appears to be a whole lot better, as they won’t get that day of rest every fifth day with Halladay in Philadelphia.

Rotation Outlook: Place Shaun Marcum and Ricky Romeo as starters, with the rest being sorted out by manager Cito Gaston. Marc Rzepczynski will have to work his way back in May after suffering a fractured finger. Holdovers Brian Tallet and Brett Cecil should be starters in Blue Jays uniform. In a division with three teams capable of winning 90 or more games not having starting pitching in order makes for tenuous prospects.

Bullpen Situation: Jason Frasor is the closer in spite of 5’10 175 pound frame. Frasor has live arm and is extremely aggressive with mid-90’s heat and has a tight late breaking slider. Scott Downs is good compliment as port-sider, touching 90 MPH on occasion, but more of a ground ball pitcher. Brandon Morrow and Scott Richmond fit into this mix somewhere.

Bookmaker.com Season Wins Prop: Over 70.5/Under 70.5

3DW Take: It’s absurd to think Toronto was actually 27-14 in May a year ago before they came unhinged. A few quality players dot the roster, just not enough in the AL East. Ability to climb over 70 wins could be determined by how they play against National League at home in June, where they will face the Giants, Cardinals and Phillies. Voting Under.

Projected Finish: 5th in AL East

Take to the bank: Toronto was 42-30 against the AL Central and West, I’d rather bet Kate Gosselin makes DWTS finals.

To view the other division previews click on the one of choice: AL Central, AL West, NL East, NL Central and NL West.

Happy Easter

Happy Easter to You

Let's watch a little sports and enjoy our families and the betting and wait until tomorrow.

Easter Bunny brings it for Easter Sunday in NBA

Four teams very familiar with one another are set to face off against each other in NBA action this Easter Sunday. Cleveland has all but wrapped up the league’s best record and wants to continue playing well headed into the playoffs. They will face Boston who is search of finding their way. Immediately following, the surging San Antonio Spurs try to lasso the Los Angeles Lakers at the Staples Center. Enjoy the Easter ham, enjoy the games.

Cleveland at Boston 1:00E ABC

The Atlantic Division champion Boston Celtics (47-28, 30-43-2 ATS) close out a six-game homestand which has been dismal to say the least. Having won nine of 13 games coming off a three game road trip, Boston started an extended stay at home dumping Denver by 14 points and secured a non-cover win over Sacramento by eight as 11-point favorites.

Last Sunday the Celtics were in position to prove they had gotten over three month slide of being incredibly ordinary, facing a hot San Antonio team and they were vanquished 94-73 by the Spurs. That loss must have left an emotional scar or Boston really isn’t anything but average, losing games to Oklahoma City and Houston on their own floor since, which left their coach to say this after Rockets defeat.

"There are so many things I could point out, but I won't," Doc Rivers said. "We played like a high school team at times, as far as the way our thought process was."

The C’s are just 23-15 at home, with a pediculous spread record of 11-26-1 ATS. Chances are this is not their last home loss.

In comes Cleveland with the best record in the NBA at 60-16 (37-37-2 ATS), having won 17 of 19 (10-8-1 ATS) since Feb. 21 and in high gear heading towards the playoffs. The Cavaliers almost traded J.J. Hickson to Phoenix and right now they are thrilled they did not. Coach Mike Brown is defensive-minded and gets wacky when his team doesn’t perform on that end of the floor.

Lately, he has used Hickson as defensive stopper late in games and he has come through, grabbing career-high 16 rebounds on Friday in the Cavaliers win over Atlanta and working a trap with Jamario Moon on Milwaukee’s John Salmons that forced key turnover to help preserve victory earlier in the week. Cleveland is 26-12 and 21-16-1 ATS outside of Ohio.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Cleveland as 1.5-point road favorites with total of 193.5 on this Easter Sunday clash and the Cavs are 12-5 ATS on this day of the week and 6-2 UNDER in last eight games. Boston is proving more and more they can’t compete with the better teams and are 7-18-1 ATS if the opponent has record of .600 or higher. The Celtics are 29-11 OVER off a loss.

The favorite in this matchup is 5-1 ATS and the previous five contests in Boston are 4-1 OVER.

San Antonio at L.A. Lakers 3:30E ABC

Despite trying circumstances, San Antonio (46-29, 39-35-1 ATS) has flourished. Playing without Tony Parker, other players like Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan missing a game here and there and schedule back-loaded with games, the Spurs have managed to win 15 of last 20 (14-6 ATS). San Antonio is in seventh spot in the hostile Western Conference, but is only one loss behind Oklahoma City and two behind Denver and Utah, and can move up possibly if they continue to win.

Off the 112-100 triumph over Orlando, the Spurs are 9-1 ATS after crossing the century mark.
The Lakers (55-21, 32-42-2 ATS) have not played very good basketball, with an 8-6 (5-9 ATS) record since Mar. 4, before facing Utah two days ago. The Jazz bring out the best in Los Angeles, as Kobe Bryant and teammates handed Utah their eighth straight loss at the Staples Center 106-92 as 4.5-point favorites.

L.A. has played almost arrogantly bored of late, more going thru the motions waiting for the playoffs to begin, however playing against other quality teams like Utah in the West brought back the intensity and it will be interesting to see if they play with same passion against the Spurs. The Lakers haven’t covered back to back games since Feb. 6-10, when they did so three consecutive times.

The Lakers are a six-point favorite with total of 194, but are just 3-9 ATS on previous dozen home tilts and are 20-7-1 UNDER off a win by double digits. San Antonio is perfect against the number if their opponent scored 100 or more points in last contest at 8-0 ATS and is 10-4-1 UNDER on Sunday’s.

The Lakers are on 7-1 ATS run against the Greg Popovich’s Spurs and the UNDER is 5-0 in L.A.

Final Four Saturday

It ended up being a very good Friday with 3-0 record, let’s see what we can pull off today. Slick Rick continues to pound the books and offers a Final Four selection. The Top Trend is perfect and the score differential is imposing. The Best System involves a couple of West Coast NBA teams, with the visitor in 80.4 percent winning situation. Good Luck

What I thought today- I’ve never been to a Final Four but probably like many of you know people that have. The one thing everyone says which I find so cool is all the fans (players and coaches also) gathered at the event believe their team is going to be crowned national champs before the games begin. I like that.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play On road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Portland, outscoring their opponents by three or more points a game, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. This easy to figure system is 38-9 ATS, 80.4 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Chicago Bulls are 8-0 ATS in home games after playing a game as a road favorite over the last two seasons, winning by an average of 12.9 PPG.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Slick Rick has not had a losing day in 13 consecutive days and has Duke as his top play this Saturday.

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Mountaineers vs Blue Devils Final Four Matchup

You want intensity? I said do you want intensity! Well get up off the couch, sit straight up with both feet planted firmly on the floor, because Bob Huggins and Mike Krzyzewski have narrowed eyes, with taunt faces, having prepared their teams as only they can for the second Final Four game of the day involving a 1 and 2 seed.

Missed shots, no problem

Of the four finalists in downtown Indianapolis, West Virginia (31-6, 17-19 ATS) is the poorest shooting team at 43.1 percent. For the Mountaineers, this just means opportunity for their athletic leapers to spring into action, collect the orange and put it back in the basket. West Virginia averages 15.5 offensive rebounds a game and is 8-1 ATS in road affairs when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds a contest since Huggins returned to alma mater.

Butler University isn’t the only butler in town, as the Mountaineers have Da'Sean Butler, who at least in West Virginia circles has opponents saying “the butler did it”. This is what a Big East coach said about Butler the player.

“[Da’Sean Butler] is so versatile. Our guy did a good job on him. We tried to limit his touches. In their five-man motion [offense], they’ll run 25 seconds off the clock if they don’t get a quick one. They keep moving. Butler has won so many games and hit so many big shots. We kind of overplayed him and let someone else do it. When he has the ball, he can score from ‘3.’ He can penetrate, and he hits the boards hard.”

Long athletes like Devin Ebanks, Kevin Jones and Wellington Smith pound the glass and have understood their roles in the offense better as the season has unfolded. It’s little wonder why the ‘Teers have tore off 10-game (7-3 ATS) winning streak.

Dukies have depth

Quietly, a few whispers had been heard that possibly Coach K no longer had the Midas touch in bringing in top-rate recruits to Durham, particularly tall ones. This has led to a few early exits in the Big Dance the past few seasons. This season has been a renaissance for Duke (33-5, 22-14-1 ATS), with frontline players complimenting its best players and adding a physical aggressiveness not seen around the program lately.

Maybe it was the practices, or Mason and Miles Plumlee acting like the Hanson brothers from “Slap Shot”, but all of the sudden the Blue Devils were devilish on defense and demons on the offensive boards. Brian Zoubek finally became the player the Duke coaches had envisioned, being an ill-tempered rebounder and defender, with a real thirst for winning. Lance Thomas had played an undersized center in his career, but was allowed to move to four spot on the floor and his confidence and energy increased.

The Plumlee brothers gained confidence themselves and started moving out opposing players like bouncers at a Durham night spot. Kyle Singler got into the act and Duke was like the Pistons of 1989-90, the “Bad Boys” with polite smiles as opposed to snarls. This Duke team fooled everyone, even the oddsmakers, which is why they are 21-13 ATS after playing consecutive games as favorite this season.

Combat gear required

Duke is a 2.5-point favorite at Bookmaker.com, with total falling to 131. The Blue Devils do not shoot the rock a great deal better than West Virginia at 44 percent, but tracks down 14.6 offensive rebounds a contest and they are 20-8 ATS after two straight games with 15 or more offensive boards. Duke is 12-2 OVER in a neutral court setting where the total is 130 to 139.5.
The Mountaineers are the bettor’s best pal with 16-2 ATS record in a NCAA tournament conflicts and 11-4 UNDER after they have covered the spread this season.

Games involving 1 vs. 2 seeds have the higher seed 5-4 SU in the Final Four since field was taken to 64 teams. Two betting twists of note: two seeds off a double digit spread win are 1-7 ATS in this round, but a top seed that is unbeaten ATS to this point is 1-5 ATS in next outing.

Spartans vs Bulldogs Final Four Matchup

The first semi-final of the Final Four is the most unusual pairing since No.11 George Mason was matched against No. 3 Florida in 2006. Though we weren’t really certain just how good the Gators truly were until a couple days later, at least they were among the top 12 seeds in that tournament. This year, Michigan State and Butler are a pair of five seeds, which happens to be the lowest matchup of seeds since fifth-seeded Florida faced eighth-seeded North Carolina ten years ago.

Doing it the Izzo way

Michigan State (28-8, 15-20 ATS) is trying to return to national championship game and has had quite a journey. In this tournament alone, the Spartans have wins by 1, 2 and 3 points and “beat down” of Northern Iowa by a whole seven points. Michigan State players do deserve props for making it this far, since it would appear unlikely that any of the other three teams still playing college basketball would be here if they lost their leading scorer like Tom Izzo’s team did in Kalin Lucas.

The Spartans are 19-8 ATS in all neutral court games over the last three seasons and will have to follow the same formula that got them to Indianapolis. Durrell Summers is averaging 22 points in last three contests, scoring from inside and out. Raymar Morgan has more picked his spots, but made a volume of buckets when his team needed it most. Draymond Green is big body that is difficult to maneuver on either side of the floor and is among the reasons Michigan State outrebounds teams by 8.7 per contest. Korie Lucious has stepped his game taking over the point and though he makes the occasional head-shaking turnover, he’s been an exceptional facilitator and has a feel when to take the right shot. The Spartans are 15-6 ATS away from home having won four of their last five games over the last two years.

Bulldogs believe in the “Butler Way”

Cinderella doesn’t get to this dance scrubbing floors, which by why Butler (32-4, 16-20 ATS) is not a fairly tale. The Bulldogs have won 24 consecutive games (13-11 ATS) with a staunch defense, not having surrendered more than 59 points in the tournament and doing so just once in previous 12 encounters. This makes them difficult to beat as a coach that has faced Butler noted.

“They’re the best late-game defensive team I’ve played against, with switching and making all the right decisions. They’re really good in late-game decisions both offensively and defensively. I was really impressed. Everything they do is so solid.”

Butler is up to 7-3 ATS in the NCAA’s and while Brad Stevens looks like Tom Izzo’s unpaid assistant in charge of taping opposing teams games, this dude can coach. He’s put together this smothering help-defense and brings calmness, as you don’t see Butler players wide-eyed when the opponent makes a surge.

Sophomore point guard Ronald Nored said this, “If you beat us, it won’t be because you rattled us.”

Butler will experiment with four guards and Gordon Hayward against the Spartans to see how they adjust. This offense has given the Bulldogs a quickness edge which opens up the lane for different players to take their man off the bounce or run “pick and rolls” or “pick and pops” in isolation sequences.

This is close

DiamondSportsbook.com has Butler as one-point favorites, with total of 126.

Coach Stevens has a motto made for texting-TGHT- which stands for, The Game Honors Toughness. Butler showed their “onions” giving away leads to Syracuse and Kansas State, before bulling the neck and putting each team away in the final minutes. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less in consecutive contests and 7-1 against the number when seeded 5th to 8th in the NCAA tournament. They are 8-0 OVER on a neutral court floor when the total is 129.5 or less, however the crowd will be far from neutral with hometown team getting the support from locals.

Michigan State is 29-15 ATS in all their NCAA appearances over the last 13 years and is 8-1 ATS as a neutral court underdog of six points or less or pick and are 25-11 UNDER versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds a game on the season after 15 or more have been played.

The excitement swells until 6:05 Eastern tip, with Final Four squads off two upset victories like Butler 2-8 ATS.

Hopefully a very Good Friday

Great to be back among the living after an intense week of baseball preparation and writing. Let’s start tonight off a NBA totals system that is 87.1 percent. Let’s motor along to Slick Rick who delivers another Free Play. The Celtics are today’s Top Trend, are they in good or bad situation? Good Luck

What I thought today- Actually I will share it over the weekend about the all but certain NCAA (money comes first) Tournament.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play UNDER on all teams like Detroit when the total is 200 or higher, having failed to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15, a well rested team playing six or less games in 14 days. This system is super 27-4 the last 14 seasons.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Boston Celtics are 4-16 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Slick Rick is bordering on two week hot streak and is playing the Spurs as his best bet.

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MLB 's Best and Worst Pitcher in April

Gave our friend Marc Lawrence a call to talk a little baseball and see what he is up to with college basketball windowing closing. We got talking about the importance of starting pitchers and bullpens when it comes to wagering on the big leagues. We both agreed you can’t win the pennant in April but you can certainly lose it with a sluggish start and weaknesses exposed.

At Marc’s Playbook.com, he has for the last several years compiled a list of good and bad pitchers per month and he shared that list with me. Below is the complete list, along with why each of them performs in this manner.

APRIL GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:
Beckett, Josh 10-4
Buehrle, Mark 10-3
Greinke, Zach 10-5
Hernandez, Felix 10-4
Hudson, Tim 8-3
Looper, Braden 12-3
Matsuzaka, Daisuke 8-4
Moyer, Jamie 10-5
Penny, Brad 10-4
Saunders, Joe 11-3
Wainwright, Adam 11-4
Webb, Brandon 11-1

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:
Arroyo, Bronson 5-10
Zito, Barry 4-10

Arroyo – Throws strikes and changes speeds on his fastball continually. Likes to mix in changeup and eats up a number of innings. He is more a feel pitcher and with the colder weather in the opening month, the baseball tends to be slicker which doesn’t give him as much command, explaining his slow starts.

Beckett- Power pitcher with drop and drive delivery. His strength is low to mid-90’s fastball with one of the best curveball’s in baseball.

Buehrle – Doesn’t impress many radar guns topping out around 87 MPH, but is expert at working both sides of the plate and like most left-handers has tailing fastball to right-hand batters. Changeup and slow curve makes fastball appear quicker.

Greinke – Skill and ability finally meshed as Greinke started last season 6-0 in 2-009 with late-1960’s Bob Gibson-like like ERA of 0.40. Tremendous arm, with a real feel for how to pitch, who put it all together to be AL Cy Young winner in 2009 on a bad ballclub.

Hernandez –Still only 23 years old, King Felix has mid-90 fastball and superior breaking pitches. He also a heavy sinker that batters have said is like “swinging and hitting a bowling ball”. That’s a pitch most hitter’s don’t want to swing at when the temps are in the 30’s and 40’s.

Hudson – Coming off Tommy John surgery, interesting to see how he starts.

Looper- Last reported as free agent.

Matsuzaka – Has neck injury rehabbing.

Moyer – Internet reports of Moyer being a rookie learning to pitch from Christy Mathewson (google this name) are unfound, as the lefty continues to confound batters with slow, slower and slower yet pitches, being able to spot them where needed.

Penny –The big right-hander could not have found a better place to resurrect his career. Working with pitching guru Dave Duncan should be a blessing for this flyball pitcher. Duncan will work with Penny not to overthrow and improve slow breaking pitches.

Saunders – Lost ability to work down and inside on right-hand batters and was tattooed frequently last season. Historically, fast starter and needs to for confidence reason on Angels club that needs him more this season.

Wainwright – The last two seasons has been among the best pitchers in all of baseball. Helps himself by being good hitter and won Golden Glove for fielding.

Webb – Out indefinitely coming back from shoulder surgery.

Zito – Similar to Arroyo, doesn’t throw hard, but not as good at spotting pitches. Has big loopy curveball that is batting practice material if it doesn’t break to the knees. Can sail along for four innings and give up a five-spot in a manner of minutes.

Dayton picked to fly home as NIT champions

At this point in time, not sure a college hoops team has a better nickname than the University of Dayton. The Flyers are flying by opposing teams in their four games in the NIT. For this reason, they are favored to be the best of the field when they take on North Carolina in Madison Square Garden for the title.

Dayton (24-12, 17-15-1 ATS) is a difficult opponent on many levels, they press on defense the entire game to force physical turnovers while anticipating the mental aspect of their performance will also cause teams to falter. Coach Brian Gregory has a veteran cast that he substitutes liberally, as much as 50 times a game. Every player has been taught to get the ball and go on any rebound or made basketball by the opposition and Dayton players fly down the court looking for easy buckets and slam opportunities. It’s not hard to figure why they are 11-4 ATS in non-conference games this season.

So how did Flyers lose a dozen games? The answer was in the semifinal win over Mississippi. Dayton held a few double digit leads; however their frantic style led to Rebels runs, as they took wild off-balance shots or just threw the ball away playing out of control. A patient offensive team can breakdown individual defenders since Dayton players seem almost bored having to guard a player more than 20 seconds. This would explain 4-13 ATS record away from home when they commit 14 to 18 turnovers in a game.

North Carolina (20-16, 13-20-1 ATS) was hoping to be playing in a different championship, but this one will do after the kind of year the Tar Heels have had. The story all year for Roy Williams’ team has been turnovers and no question point guard play has been part of the issue. Larry Drew has taken heated criticism and much deservedly so, yet upon closer inspection, he’s not the only player to blame.

Drew could do a better job in judgment terms, sometimes throwing errant passes or delivering the ball almost carelessly at his teammates feet, however enough of those in Carolina blue do mediocre work in using their bodies to receive passes, letting defenders work a side to slap the ball away or start into a move without catching the rock first. The last two examples occurred at least a half a dozen times in overtime win over Rhode Island, which was better than a third of the Tar Heels 17 miscues. It’s no wonder North Carolina is 3-10 ATS versus good defensive teams allowing 64 or fewer points game this season.

Dayton is a 2.5-point favorite at Bookmaker.com with total of 139. The Flyers pressure defense would appear to be a conundrum for North Carolina the way they handle the ball so loosely and the Flyers have sped to eight non-A-10 covers in a row. Dayton’s previous contest fell below stated total and they are 19-5 OVER after one or more Under’s over the last two seasons.
North Carolina doesn’t act all that thrilled about being in New York for this game, at least from the quote from coach Williams – “We put ourselves in this position because we didn't play as well as we needed to play, but then we accepted that and we tried to do the best we possibly could."

Though the season has not been up to typical Tar Heels standards, you cannot ignore the pedigree and they are 8-1 ATS in a postseason tournament games over the last two years and 11-3 ATS after covering three of their last four against the spread. UNC is 15-4 UNDER playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

The NIT championship has a 7:00 Eastern start time, with Dayton going after third title (1962-68) and North Carolina its first since 1971.

Elderly Celtics in fine betting system

For over two and half months, the Boston Celtics had listened to how old they have gotten, with 17-19 record since Christmas Day and crushing backers with 12-22-2 ATS record in the same time span. Critics of the team thought Boston should replace the Gatorade bottles with Geritol to get more iron and minerals into this aging group. (Blog rumors of Neutrogena use in Celtics locker room for age spots have proven unfounded)

On March 15, Boston (47-26) had apparently had enough of this “old men” talk and started playing basketball as most had expected from them, winning six of seven and covering five times. Doc Rivers club was in a position to make a statement that they indeed were turning the corner, hosting a sizzling San Antonio squad at home as 3.5-point favorites this past Sunday.

Instead, the Celtics were lamentable, missing 13 of 14 three-point shot heaves, shooting 37 percent for the game, on the way to a season low in scoring of 73 points in 21-point thrashing.

Even post-game comments were not about to change people’s perception that this Boston team was turning into the USS Constitution (known as ‘Old Ironsides’), which is stationed in the nearby harbor.

“This does not change our progress,” said 13-year veteran Ray Allen unconvincingly. “You trip up a little here, but it doesn’t change the mission we’re on or the direction we’re heading.”

The Celtics have had over 69 hours to think about Spurs debacle and get ready for one of the young and up and coming teams in the NBA, Oklahoma City (45-28). The Thunder is in sixth place in the Western Conference, led by Kevin Durant and a host of several exciting and skilled players all under 25 years of age. Oklahoma City has been one of finest bets in the NBA all season, ranked third at 43-30 ATS.

Boston on the other hand is play against material, ranked 29th at 30-41-2 ATS, due to incredibly poor home record of 11-24-1 ATS.

Can the C’s turn it around quickly? DiamondSportsbook.com oddsmakers have made Boston 3.5-point favorites, even with Paul Pierce and Kendrick Perkins listed as questionable and today’s super situation gives them more than fighting chance.

Play On home teams off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite, playing with two days’ rest.

In the last five years, this sweltering system is 27-6 ATS, 81.8 percent and it has been even sharper in the past three seasons at 18-3 against the spread. The outcomes generally have been more comfortable than a Therapeutic Bed, with the home town team winning by 9.6 points per game.

Take a moment or two to review today’s top betting system.

Final Four Wagering Outlook

The last time this many low seeds made it to their final destination was 2000, when Michigan State (1 seed) was paired with Florida (5), Wisconsin (8) and North Carolina (8). For students of the game, it was obvious there were no great teams this season. Many of the higher seeds had flaws and most were exposed by opponents who brought a little something extra on the day these teams fell. While people talk about parity, a more concise assessment about the 2009-10 campaign was competitive balance, meaning on any given day, any team could beat another in a one game setting.

This brings together an eclectic combination and no matter what, a five seed will play for the championship for the first time since the Gators did a decade ago.

Who can be crowned champion in this most uncommon of years, here is a look at each team’s brings to the table.

Butler (+350 to win national championship at DiamondSportsbook.com)

Butler (32-4, 16-20 ATS) advances to their first ever Final Four and as luck would have it, they don’t even have to travel to a far away destination. The Bulldogs have the highest winning percentage among the four teams at 88.8 percent, thanks to reeling off 24 (13-11 ATS) straight wins. This season the prize for doing so is playing in downtown Indianapolis, less than eight miles away from the Butler campus. The Bulldogs will be the first team to play in home city since UCLA in Los Angeles in 1971.

In the beginning of the season, Butler was top 10 material, but losses to Minnesota, Clemson, Georgetown and UAB (the first three in NCAA tournament) had people saying they weren’t quick or strong enough to compete at the higher levels. Looking at the kenpom.com for -Opponents average adjusted defensive efficiency- finds the Bulldogs have been in the Top 10 most of 2010 and explains why they have allowed more than 60 points once in last 12 games.

Butler has a star in Gordon Hayward and very good collegiate players like Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack along with Horizon League co-defensive player of the year Ronald Nored. The Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS in last 10 NCAA tourney tilts.

Bulter can win the title at “home” if they continue to play the “Butler” way, which is hard-nosed defense, intelligent on offense and strict use of fundamentals which makes up for athletic shortcomings. Though not a good spread team, they are 11-4 ATS the last 15 times they’ve scored 70 or more points.

Michigan State (+450)

In the words of CBS announcer Verne Lundquist, “Well how do you do?” Michigan State (28-8, 15-20 ATS) keeps being counted out and for the sixth time since 1999 and in back to back years, the Spartans will their way to the Final Four. Tom Izzo’s squad will welcome the week off before playing on Saturday, as their road to Indianapolis has been the most nerve-wracking, winning four games by a total of 13 points, including the “blowout” of Northern Iowa by seven.

Many times we hear about coaches winning games in March and now April in college basketball, however a coach has never made or missed a shot from the sidelines. What makes Tom Izzo so special this time of year is attention to detail. He prepares his players to succeed all the time. A striking contrast between Michigan State and Kentucky in their Elite Eight games was the Spartans were more thoughtful and executed their passes better than the Wildcats, who were too casual. Izzo’s teams are 22-9 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pick.

Michigan State is 19-8 ATS in all neutral court games over the last three seasons and its players have taken it upon themselves to make-up for the loss of top scorer Kalin Lucas. Looking at tape of the determination level of Durrell Summers and Raymar Morgan is striking from a month ago; were it was not unusual for them to disappear on the floor for periods of time; no more for these Spartans in their hunt for a second straight championship game appearance.

The Spartans finish the job they started last season, by out-executing opponents and making shots.

West Virginia (+225)

It’s been 51 years since West Virginia (31-6, 17-19 ATS) has been to a Final Four, led by Jerry West, who would become NBA Hall of Famer and have his likeness be part of NBA logo. The Mountaineers were a team many believed capable of playing in Indianapolis in early April, way back in November.

This is a team that just keeps on working, being average in shooting at 43.1 percent, tenacious on the offensive glass and literally finding ways to win. This tournament more than in the past several years, shows the ability to win four games to reach this juncture is razor thin. A missed shot and a made basket at the other end within 10-20 seconds has ended up the difference or critical point for all these winners.

West Virginia is very much like their coach Bob Huggins, scrappy, tenacious and unrelenting. The Mountaineers look to impose their will on you with smothering defense, getting in your face with switching man-to-man. Huggins also has shown his flexibility in using 1-3-1 zone, something the older players were used to when John Beilein was still in Morgantown. Because of the height and wingspan of many of Huggins’ players, this zone has shutdown opposing teams, nearly every time is use. WVU is 16-2 ATS in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.

Da'Sean Butler is the go to guy on offense and Devin Ebanks has learned his role on this club as the season wore on, being more effective offensively as well as defensively. Kevin Jones and Wellington Smith are excellent role players, each with job to do and Joe Mazzulla has stepped up game having to fill in for Darryl "Truck" Bryant.

The ‘Teers have won 10 in a row (7-3 ATS) and keep finding ways to win, which might be enough to be champs of college basketball if they can shorten scoring droughts.

Duke (+120)

On Selection Sunday, a few wondered if Duke (33-5, 22-14-1 ATS) would be a No. 1 seed, as it turns out the selection committee was accurate in their assessment of the Blue Devils. This is as different a team as coach Mike Krzyzewski has taken to what will be his 11th Final Four. Most of the Durham teams of the past were loaded with high school All-Americans, many with pro potential. This team is more like a team of one of his former players and now assistant coach Steve Wojciechowski, just with more overall ability. “Wojo” was a tough-minded player who made the most of his talent and never quit. This Duke squad is much the same way, in attack mode continually.

This Blue Devils team can still fill the basket from all areas of the offensive zone, but now has the height with Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas and the Plumlee brothers, to aggressively rebound at both ends of the floor. The Dukies are 20-8 ATS after two straight games with 15 or more offensive rebounds. Duke also plays very good positional defense, holding teams to 40.2 percent shooting and now the guards and wing players can funnel opposing teams towards the lane where tall timber awaits.

Duke wins it all if they continue to play great defense, especially on the perimeter, rebound and have at least two of their three outside shooters, Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler or Nolan Smith hitting at normal or above figures from the outside. A rested Duke squad is a very good squad this season at 17-1 and 11-5-1 ATS with three or more days off.

Tuesday Quickie

Have a very busy week doing MLB material for the duration. Articles will be up and I'll attempt to get to the plays.

No great systems thus far this week, but the Clippers are 2-13 ATS after three or more consecutive Under's over the last two seasons.

Slick Rick is still piling up profits and he supports our Top Trend by taking Milwaukee tonight.

NIT Semi-Finals Preview

College basketball’s craziness continues in New York in the National Invitational Tournament. While the NCAA tourney only saw one of its top seeds advance to its Final Four, none of the four teams that were seeded at the top of their bracket moved on to Madison Square Garden, the last three all losing at home in prior round. This sets up a wide open finish for the NIT.

(2) Mississippi vs (3) Dayton 7:00E ESPN2

The Dayton Flyers (23-12, 16-15 ATS) came stumbling down the stretch with 3-6 SU record (1-7-1 ATS), being eliminated in A-10 Tournament by eventual champion Xavier. The Flyers were picked to be conference champions, but limped to 8-8 record in a league that was much tougher than expected. For whatever reason, Dayton took flight and has won and covered three games in a row by a margin of 14 points per game.

The Flyers are still playing great defense (holding three teams to 37.3 percent or less shooting), but it has been the offense that has brighten up, shooting over 48 percent in this tournament compared to 44.6 percent on the season. Dayton is 8-1 ATS after playing consecutive road games over the last three seasons.

Mississippi (24-10, 18-11 ATS) saw Arizona State fall in their very first contest in the NIT, which opened the door to three encounters at home for the Rebels. They took advantage of the situation and are running away from the competition. Ole Miss has average 88 points per game, trying to force opponents to keep up, which they have not been able to do. Terrico White and Chris Warren are living up to reputation as a guard tandem. With defense not the primary concern, the Rebels are 12-3 ATS after allowing 75 points or more in back to back contests.

Bookmaker.com had opened Ole Miss as a favorite, but the line has fallen to a one-point underdog and the total of 142 seems about right if these teams were playing 35 minutes instead of 40. This should be true up and down affair, with plenty of dunks and speed from both clubs and Dayton is 19-10 ATS versus good shooting teams making 45 percent or more of their shots. Mississippi is 11-3 ATS away from Oxford off a home win scoring 85 or more points.

(4) North Carolina vs. (2) Rhode Island 9:20E ESPN2

Both of these teams come in the second semi-final really feeling good about their prospects after winning on enemy floors in really challenging environments, where not many opposing teams escape victorious. The Tar Heels (19-16, 12-20 ATS) went into a real hornets’ nest at Alabama-Birmingham and made enough offense plays while playing great defense (UAB shot 28.8 percent) to come away with the win 60-55 as 4.5-point underdogs. Much maligned point guard Larry Drew provided steady ball-handling and leadership. While coach Roy Williams would like to believe his guard is finally figuring out what he has been preaching all year, Drew offers this reason for improved judgment and play.

I just don't want to lose," he told the Raleigh New & Observer. "I just don't want to go home. I just don't want to stop playing. I've done my share of my things wrong this season, and I've made my share of mistakes. And I just want to turn things around for myself, and the team." North Carolina is sensational 7-0 AT in road post-season tournament games the last two seasons.

Rhode Island (26-9, 12-17 ATS) is at its best when it has a three-pronged scoring attack of Delroy James, Lamonte Ulmer and Keith Cothran are making outside shots, which has been the case in the NIT. The Rams overcame a big deficit at Virginia Tech and won going away 79-72. Rhode Island is 26-15 ATS in road games after one or more Over’s.

Similar to North Carolina, this tournament has been therapeutic for Rhode Island, who started 19-3 and looked like a sure-fire NCAA team in early February. The Rams are a one-point favorite with total of 150.5, but are 2-9 ATS after a game where they covered the spread this year. The Tar Heels are in the same boat against the spread with crummy 4-13 ATS record after one or more Under’s this season.

Common opponents might be a telling factor in the nightcap with UNC 2-2 & 1-3 ATS (+3.5 point margin) and URI 3-0 & 2-1 ATS, winning by 6.6 PPG.

NCAA Tournament Wagering Tally

Just when it seemed impossible for this year’s tournament to get any better we were given the instant classic between Kansas State and Xavier in double overtime, along with Tennessee in two titanic struggles, both coming down to the last shot in the last two rounds. As we move ahead, here is a wagering overview of the tournament to date.

Once the Sweet 16 arrives, Cinderella’s usually finds the clock striking midnight and indeed it did for St. Mary’s, Northern Iowa, Cornell and Washington, losing by an average of 15 points per game. High seeds were not completely immune from being struck down as Syracuse and Ohio State were both laid to rest. Still, favorites and higher seeds were 6-2 and 5-2-1 ATS.

In this round, if a team was favored by 7.5 or more points or four or less, they were 3-0 against the number. Totals were also decidedly one way in the Thursday-Friday matchups with the UNDER an overwhelming 7-1.

The Elite Eight brought far different results. Here the favorites were 1-3 SU and ATS. In Kentucky’s case, No.1 seeds are now .500 SU against No. 2 seeds in the last 36 meetings in this round, thus underdog players made out well. Nonetheless, coach John Calipari has to be shaking his head thinking his team did not allow a two-point basket in the first 20 minutes against West Virginia and still trailed.

The higher seeds were 2-2 SU and ATS over the weekend, with the total doing a reversal at 3-1 OVER.

With just three games left to be played in this year’s heart-throbbing NCAA tourney, here are the all the betting numbers.

Favorites - 38-23 SU, 29-31-1 ATS
Higher seeds - 41-19, 30-29-1 ATS
Favorites of 7.5 or more -16-1, 9-8 ATS
Favorites of 4 or less -10-17, 9-18 ATS
Totals – 35-26 UNDER
Totals over 140 – 16-12 UNDER
Totals under 130 – 9-6 UNDER

Looking ahead, all four coaches are perfectly suited for this tournament, with 20 of the games decided by five points or less. That means it comes done to execution and the will to win and performing under pressure. Coaches Tom Izzo, Bob Huggins and Mike Krzyzewski are known for their hard-driving styles that demands excellence and don’t sell Brad Stevens short, as he is known for designing the “Butler way” of playing basketball.

Here is wagering tip. If either Final Four encounters goes into overtime, bet against the winner in the title game. In the last three tournaments, the overtime winner is head-shaking 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS in next outing (Western Kentucky and San Diego are discounted from 2008, since they played each other after overtime games), including 0-5 SU and ATS this season.

NBA Systems ready to fire this Monday

The big game of the evening features Denver at Dallas, with both teams trying to hold off pursuers in division play, while looking to earn second slot in the West behind the Lakers. One of these clubs is in a better system along with three other matchups that have top notch super situations to consider on the last Monday of March. Take a gander of the wagering possibilities tonight in professional hoops.

Toronto (+8, 195.5) at Charlotte

The Bobcats have taken advantage of a break in the schedule, winning and covering three games in a row. With Toronto having lost three straight (the last two by four total points) and nine of last 12, one might expect Charlotte’s good fortune to continue, yet underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in a contest involving two average teams (+/- three points per game differential) after 42 or more games, after two straight losses by six points or less are 35-12 ATS.

L. A. Lakers (-6, 201.5) at New Orleans

Los Angeles was pathetic offensively in loss to Oklahoma City, scoring 75 points on 39.2 percent shooting Friday night. The Lakers immediately came right back, converting on 57.5 percent of shot attempts at Houston in 109-101 victory the next night. When road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points play after a road game where both teams scored 100 or more points in the second half of the season, they are 37-10 ATS the last three seasons.

Denver (+5.5, 211) at Dallas NBA-TV 8:30E

In this important battle for second place in the Western Conference, neither Denver nor Dallas is playing their best basketball. The Nuggets have lost four of five and have not covered a spread in eight games, while the Mavs are 3-4 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in previous eight outings. The Mavericks appear to still have the edge since home favorites are 40-17 ATS after failing to cover five or six of their last seven against the spread, in a game involving two teams with 60% to 75% win percentage.

New York (+11, 213.5) at Utah

The Knicks haven’t played Utah since way back on Nov. 9, losing at home 95-93 as 5.5-point home underdogs. New York opened their five game west trip by being thumped by Phoenix 132-96 two days ago. When these circumstances come together, look towards the total, as revenging teams off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, with the total at 210 or higher, are 55-24 UNDER the last 14 years.

Sunday Plays and thoughts from Saturday

What an odd day in basketball! 3DW was 1-1 in official picks and our system play that was just below 80 percent (79.5) is now over with two winners yesterday. All of our plays today are from the NBA, with an outstanding system that is 26-4 ATS. The Top Trend is from tonight’s ESPN affair and is a perfect total play. Slick Rick looks to hunt down another winner, this one on the road again. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday- I've never seen a team as tired as Kansas State in a big game from start to finish.I've never seen a game where a team did not have a two-point field goal and led at halftime. (West Virginia)

As I wrote in my article about the game, I presumed West Virginia would play more 1-3-1 zone. In theory a good coaching job by Huggins, but a terrible effort by John Calipari in preparation and execution by his players. Yes, Kentucky is young, but that has nothing to do with how you perform execution.

I coached AAU basketball for a number of years and the 1-3-1 zone is one of the easiest to defeat. Like any zone, you have to hit shots which Kentucky did not do. However, how you take it a step further is crisp passing (not look-hold-pass), which forces the wing players to cover about 10 feet of space on continual basis. Over time that should open up shots at 15 feet, not 20 or more.

Next you send weak-side cutter thru and have your player in the middle set screen for possible layup up or catch and pass to big man in the middle. Or you have your big man set screen opposite side when the ball is at the top of either side for weak-side dunk from low wing player against smaller low man in the zone.

I saw none of this by coach Cal.

It's interesting to note both teams that lost Saturday played the later games on Thursday and neither was mentally sharp and both shot the ball incredibly poorly. Curious to see what Michigan State and Duke do in same circumstance.

Do you realize a 5 or 6 seed is guaranteed to play in national championship with Butler, Michigan State and Tennessee alive on that side of the bracket?

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play On road teams like Golden State, scoring 103 or more points a game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half. Since 2005, this system checks in at 26-4 ATS, 86.7 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Boston is 10-0 UNDER after leading their last two games by 10 or points at the half over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Slick Rick is 20-7 since last Sunday and his Best Bet this day is Portland.

Can Baylor really make Final Four?

The NCAA Tournament has enjoyed a number storylines this March, with lower seeds pulling off unpredictable upsets and destroying brackets from coast to coast. One story that isn’t getting enough press, but will explode if they win in Houston is the Baylor Bears.

It was just seven years ago Baylor was rocked with a scandal in the death of basketball player Patrick Dennehy. His teammate Carlton Dotson pleaded guilty to the homicide and coach Dave Bliss was believed to be in a cover-up, which also happened to dig up recruiting violations by Bliss, forcing him to resign. The Baylor basketball program was dead.

Scott Drew was told by almost everyone that the Baylor basketball job was a suicide mission for someone young with upward mobility. Drew took the job anyway and what he has accomplished in this short period of time is as good or better than any Cinderella story in March.

Baylor (28-7, 18-10 ATS) has as much physical ability as any team left in the tournament. LaceDarius Dunn is dominant scorer (witness the 23 points vs. St. Mary’s), Tweety Carter can scorch the nets and distribute dimes with regularity. Ekpe Udoh and Josh Lomers are big bodies around the rim, with Udoh a terrific specimen, just tapping into his potential. The Bears are versatile and have experience and are 12-2 ATS having won four of their last five games this season. One more thing, until 10 days ago, the last time Baylor won a NCAA tournament game was 1950. Gulp.

Standing in their way is one of the dominant programs in recent college basketball history (10 Final Four’s under Coach K), the Duke Blue Devils (32-5, 21-14-1 ATS). In what has been an unusual basketball season, even the Duke-haters have been surprisingly quiet. It’s not like the Duke has snuck up on anyone this year, being co-champions of the ACC, winning the conference tournament and elected as a top seed, yet all this has happened with very little clamor.

Maybe it’s because of the Blue Devils failures in the previous couple of tournaments or lack of superstar talent on the roster. Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith are the three best perimeter players in the country on the balance of the season. None of them carries much of a “wow” factor, yet each is coldly efficient. Even oddsmakers haven’t been able to beat Duke, since they are regularly shaded with additional baggage and they are 10-1 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a game this season.

Where coach Mike Krzyzewski’s team has made the biggest strides is the frontline players add defense and rebounding, two qualities lacking of late. Opposing teams are scoring only 60.5 points per contest against Duke on 40 percent shooting. The combinations of Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas and the Plumlee brothers have stifled opposing offenses and the Blue Devils are 9-2 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last outing.

Duke is a five-point pick at DiamondSportsbook.com and will be in unfriendly environment, with Houston crowd pro-Baylor. The Dukies are 7-3 ATS as neutral site favorites and 16-6 UNDER after five or more consecutive victories. Baylor will be able to feed off the energy from the crowd and are 9-1 ATS after two games as chalk. Their mission in 2-3 zone is to keep what appears to be a tired Jon Scheyer in shooting slump and control the boards. The Bears are 10-1 OVER after a win by 15 points or more this season.

The 1 vs. 3 Elite Eight conflicts show there is not much difference between the teams with 10-8 SU edge for the higher seed. Where separation occurs is when the top seed has won nine of 10 games before the tournament (Duke 12-1 SU), they are 7-2 SU and if the lower seed has inexperienced coach in the Big Dance, they are 2-7 SU.

Something old and something new in Midwest Final

Michigan State is back in the Elite Eight, trying to make their sixth Final Four appearance in a dozen years. Tennessee on the other hand is making their debut as one of the eight finalists in contention for the national championship. Each has endured the most unlikely of circumstances to arrive at this point.

The Spartans (27-8, 14-20 ATS) are battered, bruised and one other factor, still playing. Durrell Summers seems to have taken it upon himself to be the leader with leading scorer Kalin Lucas out. Summers had 19 points in the win over Northern Iowa (26 vs. Maryland) and he and his teammates still believe they have ways to go. “It feels great to be back," forward Draymond Green said of being among the last eight teams. "We've still got bigger dreams."

Michigan State has been thru winning streaks, injuries, suspensions and benching, yet continues to press on. "That's kind of enjoyable, to find a way," coach Tom Izzo said. "It's somewhat more rewarding than the last two." Michigan State has covered 21 of their last 29 Sunday games.

Tennessee (28-8, 15-17-1 ATS) head coach Bruce Pearl knows his team and knows his math which led to upset of Ohio State. “I told our team, 'It's our team vs. their six,"' Pearl said. "We were a better 10 than their six." For Vols fans and backers, the Elite Eight is a better number than the Sweet 16.

Wayne Chism and Brian Williams used their size and bulk to dominate Ohio State in the paint, out-rebounding the Buckeyes 41-29 and scoring 50 of their 76 points in the lane area. Pearl has taken a collection of players that could have folded their tent and disappeared when their leading scorer Tyler Smith was suspended for the year and three other players were disciplined for varying lengths of time, instead he sold them on team and different leaders emerged, leading to Tennessee on 10-2 (6-5-1 ATS) closing run. The Volunteers are 5-1-1 ATS in last seven matchups with teams with winning records.

Tennessee is a two-point favorite at DiamondSportsbook.com, with total of 136.5 and they are 5-1-1 ATS against the Big Ten of late. The Vols will have to continue to play great defense and be prepared for Spartans transition game. Rebounding will be huge factor for Tennessee, as Michigan State is 25-3 SU (11-16 ATS) when they grab more boards than the opponent. Look for Volunteers to again work the ball inside where Izzo’s team doesn’t have a great deal of height.

The Spartans will need a complete team effort once again. Summers and Raymar Morgan need to be the scoring leaders and receive plenty of moxie from Korie Lucious and Green, who comes off the bench. Michigan State is 7-2 ATS in NCAA Tournament tilts and 6-2-1 ATS as a neutral site underdog.

Concerning the total, Michigan State is 7-3-1 UNDER after a cover and Tennessee is 8-2 UNDER since Jan. 31 as a favorite.

Whatever the outcome, the winner will be the lowest seed in the Final Four since 2006 when 11th seeded George Mason waltzed into the surroundings.