National League East vs West leaders collide

Two of the wagering capitals in the United States are heavily populated areas in New York and Los Angeles. Both groups of bettors have a completely different outlook on life and each will tell you the other lives life the wrong way. Every now and again, they have teams that meet each other in sports at the top of their game, which sets off further sparks, sort of coast-to-coast shouting match if you will about which is the better team. Over the next three days, the Mets and Dodgers will let fans and sports bettors but their cash on the line to support their favorite team.

This will be another rare test for the Dodgers (26-13, 11.4 units), who have only played one team (Philadelphia) with a winning record to start a series this season. Los Angeles, off its record-setting performance to start the season is 14-3 at Dodger Stadium, scoring 6.5 runs per game, with on-base percentage of .393 and winning by ginormous 3.4 runs per game.

While Manny Ramirez’s suspension has been much discussed, one Dodger who has stepped up his game is Manny’s replacement Juan Pierre. The left-fielder has raised his batting average to .419, with 20 hits in 43 at bats, since taking over, which includes seven doubles, nine RBIs, 11 runs and six steals in the 10 games.

The Dodgers have won 15 of last 20 at home against teams with winning records and will start Randy Wolf (2-1, 2.77 ERA, 1.089 WHIP), who has been howling hot in his last three starts with 1.56 ERA, never permitting more than one run each time. Wolf is coming off season-high of 113 pitches, which included eight strikeouts against the Phillies, earning his only victory over this span.

This Wolf has proven to be nocturnal, with 19-5 record in home games in night games over the last three seasons. (Team's Record)

The Mets (21-16, +0.7) were slowed by Matt Cain of the Giants last night in 2-0 loss, however still won three of four over San Francisco and are 11-3 in last fourteen to take over first place in the NL East. Prior to yesterday’s white-washing, New York had scored seven runs per game in previous 10. Everyone in the lineup had contributed, including Gary Sheffield, who has revitalized career in the Big Apple.

The Mets are 9-8 on the road this season, but have shone tendency to jump out ahead of opponents, with recent 8-2 record in Game 1’s. They will reach into bag of tricks and extract Tim Redding to be the starter. The veteran right-hander will join the rotation after missing the first six weeks of the season with a strained right rotator cuff. In two Minor League rehab starts, Redding allowed a combined four runs over 13 innings. In his career, Redding is 1-3 with a 5.64 ERA in four starts and six lifetime appearances against the Dodgers.

DiamondSportsbook.com has established L.A. as -140 money line favorite, with total Un9.5. The Dodgers are 38-13 as home chalk, dating back to last year and are 21-7 as a home favorite of -110 to -150. With Wolf on the hill, Los Angeles is 16-6 UNDER off a win. The Mets are 20-6 as road underdogs of less than +150, though are 2-9 after three straight games with no home runs. New York has played in a number of high scoring affairs when not favored and is 13-1 OVER as an underdog of +125 to +175 over the last two seasons.

The Mets took the season series last year 4-3, but will be facing Wolf, who has won last five decisions over the Metropolitans (7-0 team record in L7starts). First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 Eastern in local markets and on MLB.TV.

Carolina and Pittsburgh Preview

The Eastern Conference Finals are filled with storylines and questions, since as recently as Mar. 14, the precise knowledge of either Carolina or Pittsburgh being in the postseason was still in doubt, let alone either squad dreaming of making it to this point. Nevertheless, both have shown championship mettle, Carolina as the Cardiac ‘Canes and Pittsburgh overcoming severe rivalry series’. Each has to be somewhat fatigued, however, within four victories of playing for the Stanley Cup, now is not the time to give into selfish feelings.

Both teams will try and Staal

Not your traditional spelling and not your traditional matchup, as Pittsburgh’s Jordan Staal with go up against his brother Eric from Carolina, which is the first time this has happened since 1974.

One replacement coach will lead team to Cup Finals

Carolina’s Paul Maurice and Pittsburgh’s Dan Bylsma were both coaches who came in during the season to shake up lethargy each club was suffering from. One of these gentlemen will try to the first coach since Larry Robinson in New Jersey in 2000, to arrive late and still walk off with Lord Stanley’s trophy.

Star Power vs Finding a Way

Sidney Crosby has established himself as the best player in the NHL. He has 12 goals in 13 games in the postseason and his maturity and determination has taken his game to another level. Evgeni Malkin is the perfect second fiddle to make life miserable for any opposing team and creates added pressure to all defenses. Pittsburgh is talent-laden and deep and is playing like team that has unfinished business from a season ago.

Visiting Carolina scored with a minute to go to upset New Jersey in Game 7 and lit the lamp in Boston in overtime to take that series. The Hurricanes have won six series in a row, (two-year playoff hiatus) which included Stanley Cup title in 2006. Carolina has balanced attack and could cause Penguins problems since as they proved in last two series; they have a knack for getting right at the net to score goals.

Goalies on Demand

Carolina’s Cam Ward has been the biggest story among goaltenders to the point. Ward has had to step up to various pressure situations (down 3-2 in series to Devils, going to Boston after team blew 3-1 series lead) and came thru brightly. He’s a former playoff MVP and he gives Hurricanes lots of confidence.
This places more pressure on Marc-Andre Fleury for Pittsburgh, whose play is best described as timely, rather than secure. The Penguin between the pipes has let in more than one soft or somewhat surprising goal thus far and has to match his counterpart for Pitt to move on.

Chasm is Special Teams

Pittsburgh’s power play is coming around after slow start in postseason, up to 19.7 percent (13 for 66). Carolina has played like they preferred opponents wouldn’t take penalties, with embarrassing five goals in 48 chances (10.7 percent). The Penguins heavy artillery attack has generated 18 more chances than the Hurricanes, which suggests they can’t make many miscues and hope Pittsburgh doesn’t score.

Numbers

Pittsburgh can go on feeding frenzies and is 25-8 in home games after a blowout win by four goals or more and they are 70-31 when in the favorite role. Carolina has won 19 of last 30 contests against teams with winning records and goalie Ward is 9-3-1 against the Penguins. The teams split four games, each winning once on opposing ice, with the Canes taking last two. In the opener, Pittsburgh could have edge with 26-7 record in home games revenging a same season loss.

Outcome

There are a number of reasons to pick Carolina, but generally speaking, talent wins out over the long haul. As long as Fleury is competent in net, Pittsburgh should return to Finals.

3DW Pick- Pittsburgh (-210) in six

Series odds from DiamondSportsbook.com

Hopefully a shining Sunday

Two more official winners (would have liked system to be right since I bet it) takes us to 58-38-3, as we hunt for more winners. Outstanding System Play at 38-6 on the diamond goes today. The Blue Jays keeping winning, how do they do in daylight? See Top Trend. Slick Rick should change his name to Sick Rick on the money run he’s on and crosses over to hoops here for Free Play. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday –Even though I swear off parlays like I do potato chips, it’s nice when I stay VERY selective and hit one that I REALLY like I did yesterday the New York teams.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites with a money line of -150 or more like the Tigers, after three straight games where they committed no errors, starting a pitcher who was hit for five or more runs in his last two outings. Dating back to ’97, this dandy is 38-6, 86.4 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Toronto Blue Jays are on 12-2 run in day games.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Slick Rick of the LCC was 3-1 Saturday, with early morning loss on Reds, yet maintains snazzy 25-5-1 run and prefers the Celtics at -2.5 as best bet.

Chicago and Detroit Preview

Think back to the first day of 2009, when a jam-packed Wrigley Field was hosting this year’s Winter Classic in the NHL, who would have had any idea the Red Wings and Blackhawks would later meet in the Western Conference Finals? This will be the 15th meeting in the playoffs of these Original Six rivals, the last coming 14 years ago.

Chicago is the biggest underdog of the remaining teams chasing the Stanley Cup and just not because they are playing Detroit. The Blackhawks have picked up fewer extra credit hours than a D-student hosting all-night parties. Chicago’s postseason resume reads like Cat in the Hat. However, things are changing quickly in the city of broad shoulders, as the Hawks has amassed a large quantity of young and speedy skaters, with an average age of under 25, who are growing up quickly.

Consider this tidbit, Chicago sophomore stud Patrick Kane was two years old when six-time Norris Trophy winner Nicklas Lidstrom played his first NHL game. The Blackhawks closed the season 9-3 and took down Calgary and Vancouver without any playoff pedigree. Jonathan Toews is another young star and Martin Havlat is as big a reason as any the Canucks were sent packing. The Hawks power play has been on fire, converting almost 30 percent in the postseason and they are 24-9 ATS when they get four to five power play opportunities per game this season.

The Detroit Red Wings should have their interest piqued, facing a division rival and considered one of the up and coming teams in the NHL. This is a perfect opportunity for Detroit to show their Central foe that playoff hockey is significantly different from the regular season. The Red Wings blueliners will be in charge of limiting speed rushes by the Blackhawks and if they can steal the puck, the defensemen are well-skilled in playing keep away to frustrate the younger team, which Detroit coach Mike Babacock hopes leads to miscues and scoring chances for his team.

Goalie Chris Osgood won’t go down as an all-time great netminder, just a winner who picks up jewelry for winning Stanley Cups. Johan Franzen has been scoring machine in the postseason with eight goals and 15 points. Hockey fans know what Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk bring to the party, plus the Red Wings have all that experience which has helped them be 22-2 in home games off a home win scoring four or more goals over the last two seasons.

Detroit won the first four meetings, which were all played by Jan. 1, before either team new what specifically they would end up with. Chicago won a pair of meaningless games on the last weekend of regular season to secure fourth seed. The Wings are 8-3 in the postseason and the Hawks are 8-4. From the standpoint of pure talent these two aren’t that apart, but in the end, the experience factor will matter as Detroit keeps dream alive for fifth Cup in last dozen years.

3DW Pick- Detroit (-220) in six

Series odds from DiamondSportsbook.com

Cavs and Nuggets will finally have somebody to play

The Cleveland Cavaliers have had more off days than an Ohio congressman, during the postseason, playing eight games in the past 30 days. The second seeded Denver Nuggets are 8-2 in the playoffs and will be in Conference Finals for the first time since 1985. Presently, they are second all-time in postseason scoring differential at +15.6 points per game, to the NBA champion Milwaukee Bucks of 1971 and could have never guessed it would be them waiting to find out whom they will play. The Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics are the home favorites; can they deliver and match up with anxious opponents?

Houston at L.A. Lakers 3:30E ABC

Before the series began, I did run across a few different guys from the various major sports websites that had this series going seven games. Of course, everyone one of them expected Yao Ming to play in all seven contests, not the 42.1 percent he will credited with. So what’s the deal for Game 7?

In the history of the NBA playoffs, if ever one series showed what determination and desire could do against an obviously more talented team, this one fits the bill. Even Houston knows it. “We’re not talented enough to play with this (Lakers) team,” Shane Battier said.

He’s right, but there is one huge difference, you slug the Lakers in the mouth, maybe they throw a punch back and maybe they don’t. This has to be Rockets coach Rick Adelman’s strategy. ALL of the pressure is on the Lakers, who have lost two or three more games in this series than the majority of people would have believed.

Houston has to continue to run screens that leave Aaron Brooks wide open, pound the ball into Luis Scola until the Los Angeles has any answer and keep fingers crossed Ron Artest and Battier can keep making shots. Houston might be 6-1-1 ATS playing with two days rest, but the smartest thing they can do is play a game that mentally tests how much the Lakers REALLY want to get into 94-feet of physical, tough-minded basketball.

Phil Jackson has received criticism for three non-efforts by his team in this series and while it is the coach’s responsibility to have his team prepared, these are professional basketball players, who are handsomely paid give effort, especially when the stakes are at their highest. In every championship Jackson has produced, he’s always had that second guy, who was almost as feared as the leader of the team, Michael and Scottie, Shaq and Kobe. Now its Kobe and ____ (If you think of someone, please fill in).

Who among you doesn’t expect Los Angeles to play better today? The oddsmakers at DiamondSportsbook.com still do, making them 12.5-point favorites with total of 194. The Lakers have covered their last four losses and have had plenty of team to soul search (7-2 ATS, with two days off). Maybe each Laker fills up bathtub with water and looks into it and asks them self is this reflection of a champion?

The Lakers need 10 players with the mindset of doing their individual jobs, nothing more, nothing less. Coach Jackson has to strongly suggest to each player to stay within capabilities, not force the action, stay within the team concept and fight for rebounds and outwork Houston for loose balls.

The Rockets 2-10 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season, showing their vulnerability, it’s just how bad do the Lakers want it compared to Houston?

Orlando at Boston 8:00E TNT

Nobody should be shocked this game is being played, it is just how we got here is the madness. Each team has won and covered a trio of tilts, with the Under leading 4-2 in the series. Boston is a 2.5-point favorite, with 186.5-point total.

Orlando wins if Dwight Howard brings same mindset from Game 6 and savagely controls the glass and stays aggressive in wanting the ball. (A few more made free throws only enhances value) The Magic convert 37.4 percent of shots behind the arc, they have to be in the 30’s for Game 7 to have a shot on the road, not 6 for 26 like last contest. Bench J.J. Redick already, he offers little as player unless he makes shots and he’s been given ample time to show he can against Boston. Get Courtney Lee back in starting lineup, even if he has to wear mask of the Joker. Run offense to get Hedo Turkoglu or Rashard Lewis to their favorite spots on the floor and let them chuck it up. Orlando is 15-5 ATS as a road underdog of three points or less and knows they can win; they just have to believe it, when it counts most.

Boston wins if Orlando continues to let Rajon Rondo run free. Rondo picked off 16 rebounds for the Celtics and helped keep them in the game until the very end. Coach Doc Rivers must convince Rondo, a slick Bob Cousy pass from yesteryear is not his best option and instead make the right safe pass to assist team. Find a way to isolate Ray Allen for a couple of 12-15 foot wide open looks early, to build quick confidence and possibly the vet gives you 25-30 points in a game the C’s need most. Keep Paul Pierce away from Ray Allen by 20 feet or more on offense, this frees up both players to help offense. Kendrick Perkins and Glen Davis have to be wiser with Howard. Make him start offense two feet further away from basket and Howard instigates contact, absorb and let his limited offensive moves find some other way to tickle the twine.

The Celtics are 12-4 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog and are 22-9 ATS after scoring 75 points or less. Like most any boxing champ, the only way Boston does down is by knockout, not by hanging with them for 45 minutes, particularly on the road and hope you can close them out. It means too much to this team to not fight every step of the way.

This is Orlando’s chance to show the new guard is taking over the East, Cleveland’s established them self and the Magic could go right with them. Orlando’s 11-2 ATS in road games after allowing 80 points or less, do they trust themselves enough to complete the task and travel to Northern Ohio?

Saturday Selections

Came back to earth a bit with 1-2 day, yet are still 56-38-3, 59.5 percent in over a month of plays. I’ll be the first to admit that money lines are much easier to win than spreads. And yes, 3Daily Winners record does not reflect units on money lines, since I don’t have the time to mess around trying to keep records of that also. But when you consider there are very few places on the internet you could go anywhere and find a record like this over an extended period of time, for free, you know you have a pretty decent deal. Hopefully you also enjoy reading the articles, since the idea is to inform and teach and get better at this difficult game. Before football season comes around, their will be improvements here that hopefully will make you want to visit us every day if you don’t already. Feedback welcome.

Found a MLB system that makes a great deal of sense and though it won’t be official play, it’s on my bets for today with 43-11 record. Slick Rick is slicker than a bikini wax and has another smooth Free Play. The Top Trend is in the AL and has teeth to it (based on team nickname). Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – Going to the doctor is a lot like going to a large amusement park. Though you may be 10 yards away from destination when you first arrive, it can take upwards of 90 minutes to two hours to finally get to what you intended initially to do.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150, when a bad offensive team like San Diego is averaging 4.1 or less runs per game, against an average NL starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20), with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season. Though just missing as 80 percent qualifying system, pretty darn good at 43-11, 79.6 percent with 2-0 record in 2009.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Detroit Tigers are is 15-2 after two straight games where they stranded five or less runners on base since last season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Slick Rick of the Left Coast Connection picked up three more winners taking him to sizzling 22-4-1 and he has Toronto on his radar today.

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Friday Forecast

Will take a 2-1 record any day of the week and have bettor’s delight with sharp underdog as Top Trend. Slick Rick continues to mow down winners and releases another in the AL tonight as Free Play. Have a killer MLB system at an arousing 85.1 percent. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home underdogs like Seattle with a money line of +125 to +175, who are below average AL hitting team (BA .265 or less) against a team with a superior bullpen (ERA of 3.75 or less), playing on Friday. This is a real kick-butt system at 40-7, 85.1 percent and is coming up for the first time this year.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Joe Saunders and the Halos are 10-1 (+10.7 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Slick Rick continues to roll with 19-4-1 record and like the Tigers to hunt down Oakland.

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Betting Baseball with numbers that matter

Over the last couple of decades, intelligent baseball fans have moved away from the rudimentary statistics to more thought-provoking and useful numbers. The ideas of batting average and earned run average telling the whole story just isn’t true anymore and we moved ahead to more sophisticated methods of measuring performance.

From the batting perspective, one commonly seen on television and heard on radio broadcasts is on-base percentage. Some may wonder how an on-base percentage is calculated.

You add together hits, walks and hit by pitch and divide that by at bats, walks, hit by pitch and sacrifice flies.

What we learn from on-base percentage is the hitting value of the player to the team. For example, Ted Williams hold the all-time record for OBP for career at .481. Second is Babe Ruth at .474 and others in the top 10 includes Lou Gehrig, Barry Bonds, Rogers Hornsby and Ty Cobb. In the top 15 all-time are a couple of modern day players, Todd Helton and Albert Pujols.
Why is OBP valuable to sports bettors?

Start with the fact the easiest way to score runs is having men on base. Former Baltimore Orioles manager Earl Weaver said the best offense play in the game was a three-run homer and while you can’t argue with his logic, two players had to get on base for that to occur. Many of the all-time great pitchers gave up 20 or more home runs a year, even into the 30’s, but they limited damage by having them be solo shots.

On-base percentage means players are willing to help the team. These hitters will take walks, adding to hurlers pitch counts, and play the game the right way, by hitting to opposite field if pitcher works the outside corner continually or with two strikes.

A quick review of the top five teams in Major League Baseball for OBP looks like this.

L.A. Dodgers .374
N.Y. Mets .369
Boston .366
Washington .361 (see pitching numbers)
Toronto .359

Three of these teams are in first place in their respective divisions and the Red Sox are right on the heels of the Blue Jays. Though Manny Ramirez is suspended, his work ethic and attention to detail has rubbed off on his Dodgers teammates. The Mets have been more patient at the dish and are 5th in walks. Boston is just being Boston and Toronto manager Cito Gaston has convinced his team to be more aggressive at the plate, yet be selective at what you swing at. After having doubts, maybe Nationals third-sacker Ryan Zimmerman is correct is saying “….we’re better than our record shows”, however allowing six runs per game puts a great deal of pressure on any offense.

Another aspect to think about is what a quality OBP does to opposing teams pitching staff. The pitch count aspect has already been mentioned for starting pitchers, which transcends into more innings for bullpens. This is an area that is a moving target for many teams from year to year, as teams feel compelled to pay everyday ball players more and will let go of effective reliever over cost concerns.

Drilling down, we find only 10 teams have a bullpen ERA of less than 3.80, suggesting batters going to the plate with an idea to execute could see tasty deliveries coming their way.

Reviewing the other end of the spectrum here are the five worst teams in OBP.

Seattle .307
Arizona .307
San Francisco .314
Oakland .314
San Diego .314

Two of the five clubs are in the bottom five for walks (Mariners and Giants). Only San Francisco has a record above .500, but that has been due to superior starting pitching, led by Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and the possible revitalization of Barry Zito. It would be rare to see Seattle, Oakland and San Diego at the top of this list anyways, since they play in parks conducive to pitching. Nevertheless, all these teams lack talented hitters and the ones on the active roster go up to the plate just hacking, making them easy fodder for pitchers that can hit the right spots.

Arizona is the biggest disgrace, since the core players on the team should be approaching best years. The Snakes have to tie their shoes extra tight, because they swing so hard trying to jack everything over the fence. To this point, the D-Backs hitters have shown no adaptability to wanting to improve and strike out or hit lazy pop-ups and fly balls.

Winning against those setting the line is never easy, but utilizing tools like on-base percentage can keep you in the black.

MLB Series Wagering- Brewers at Cardinals

The top two teams in the National League Central Division will collide near the shores of the Mississippi River for a weekend series. Milwaukee has been one of the hottest teams in baseball, winning nine of 11 and doing so in impressive fashion. The Brewers have scored 6.8 runs per game, while looking like “Harvey’s Wallbangers” (circa 1982), sending 18 balls over the fence. During this same period, opposing teams have only mustered just over four runs a contest, showing Milwaukee has really been clubbing the competition.

After a 2-4 road trip, St. Louis returns home for an attention-grabbing homestand. They start with Milwaukee, followed by the Cubs and commence interleague action against in- state rival Kansas City. Though seldom mentioned publicly, the Cardinals are one of the teams that do not enjoy the Brewers act. Milwaukee is known in baseball circles as being a bit showier about their actions and reactions. Skipper Tony LaRussa being more old-school in baseball traditions, doesn’t always appreciate some of what they do and over the last couple of years there has been a dust-up or two between these division rivals.

Milwaukee is 11-2 having won three of last four games and sends ace Yovani Gallardo (4-1, 3.09 ERA) up the hill. Gallardo was handed the role of being top pitcher for Milwaukee and has responded. He’s struck-out better than a batter per inning and has 1.80 ERA in last three starts. If he continues to pitch this way, he’ll improve the Brewers 24-7 record with an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last five games.

The Cardinals will look to get Kyle Lohse (3-2, 4.25) back on track after a pair of rugged outings. Lohse was 3-0 with 1.97 ERA in April, but has been bombed in first two starts in May for 13 runs, 16 hits (three home runs) in 10 1/3 innings. The Cardinals are 27-13 vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits a start and Lohse has always been an effective pitcher at home against division teams with 37-17 mark (team’s record) during his career.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Milwaukee as -115 road favorites with total of 8.5 and Lohse is 17-6 at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last three seasons. (team's record) This being a low scoring affair would not be a surprise, with the Brewers 17-6 UNDER vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 and the Cards 13-3 UNDER at home vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better.

Game 1 Edge: Milwaukee

Coming into the series, these were the No.2 and No.3 scoring teams in the National League behind the Dodgers. St. Louis has lost some of its firepower with outfielders Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel on the DL. This means they have to work harder to manufacture runs and would like to believe they have the right pitcher to help slow down Milwaukee offense. Adam Wainwright (3-1, 4.35) and the Redbirds are 16-5 in his last 21 home starts and he’s been particularly effective if opponent has winning record with 10-1 mark. Milwaukee will need to have same patience they have shown at the dish all season in being second in baseball in walks and make Wainwright bring the ball up.

They will counter with Jeff Suppan (2-3, 5.50) who was part of the 2006 World Series championship team in the Gateway City. With the off day last Monday, that gave the righthander an extra day of rest and he is 4-0 pitching with five days between games. Suppan has enjoyed facing his old team and is 4-0 with a 1.93 ERA since becoming a Brewer. Only negative is the Crew and Suppan are 3-10 in road games against teams with winning records.

Game 2 Edge: St. Louis

The Redbirds might have a slight advantage coming into this game as they were 9-5 playing in daylight compared to Milwaukee’s 6-5 mark before Saturday’s contest. The outcome could be decided early for the series finals. Todd Wellemeyer (3-3, 5.80) has started poorly in most every start. Too many times, he's dug himself too deep a hole to be able to dig out, with opposing teams hitting an arresting .337 against him.

Milwaukee’s Manny Parra (2-4, 4.82) was on much the same path with 0-4 start, but has bounced back with consecutive wins. Surprisingly, the lefthander has not held lefty hitters in check, with them batting .321 against him compared to .246 by righty’s. Parra’s control is still an issue as he walks almost six batters per nine innings and has yet to get past six innings this season. The Cardinals are 7-4 against left-hand starters this season.

Game 3 Edge: Milwaukee

Milwaukee has won eight of 15 at the newer Busch Stadium and right now is in a great groove. This team has matured to the point of they now play much better on the road (9-7 this season) then in the past. If the Cardinals had all their top guns in the lineup, might be inclined to look their way, but since they don’t, the Brewers look like the play for this series wager.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Milwaukee +130, St. Louis -160

StatFox Edge Pick: Milwaukee

2009 Record – 1-4

Three Plays for Thursday

On Tuesday we had 3-0 day, taking record to 53-35-3, 60.2 percent. Really light in top quality systems today for some reason, thus today’s is very solid, however it won’t count officially. Got a terrific trend in a game in the Windy City that is perfect 12-0. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – It does little good to be ill since there is nothing on television.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road teams after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for four or more earned runs, against opponent after a game where the bullpen was rocked for five or more earned runs. This system is 62-20, 75.6 percent, including perfect 4-0 in 2009. The play against team is the Houston Astros.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Ryan Dempster and the Chicago Cubs are 12-0 in home games in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Slick Rick continues to pile up the cash with 17-4-1 record and is playing the Yankees tonight.

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Rugged choices for bettors in pair of Game 6’s

The Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers proved their mettle in Game 5’s in different ways. Boston showed the true heart of a champion in overcoming 14-point deficit to oust Orlando 92-88. The Lakers on the other hand reeked with determination and easily buried an out-classed and undermanned Houston club. What will Game 6 provide, lets take a look inside.

The Orlando Magic is quickly becoming the Houston Astros and Washington Nationals of playoff basketball. The ‘Stros and Nats lead the majors in blown saves with 10 and the Magic keep coming up more empty than a group of guys leaving Hooters on Church Street in downtown Orlando at closing.

It is evident Orlando is the better team without Kevin Garnett playing for Boston, yet this Celtics team keeps fighting, clawing and scratching to win, which is a testament to the players and coach Doc Rivers. The Celtics are a team Al Davis would love, “Just win baby” and they manage to just so as compared to the Raiders. Boston makes one more trip South and is 8-2-1 ATS on the road.

Dwight Howard was right and wrong to call out his coach Stan Van Gundy about touches in the fourth quarter. He was wrong in the sense you don’t do that after losing a game you clearly had in the bag and let escape, down 3-2 in postseason. He is right that this has been a continual pattern for Orlando in the playoffs, blowing big leads, sometimes winning and sometimes not.

Looking into the issue deeper, here is what is uncovered. If Howard, aka “Superman” is such a dynamic offensive threat, why don’t his own players trust him in the last five minutes of the game? NBA players might not be the sharpest lot off the court, but they understand the game. Are Orlando players too concerned that Howard will make a turnover with the ball at crunch time? Does Howard really work to get the ball, spreading himself out to demand it? Finally, some believe Howard in the best center in the NBA right now, which by my calculations in similar to being heavyweight boxing champion, doesn’t mean much.

Let’s not forget, Howard is a rebounding and dunking machine, but his post moves couldn’t fill a Dunkin Donuts Yahoo sports minute.

Oddsmakers at Diamond Sportsbook.com see an angry Orlando club looking to square the series at 3-3 and have made them the largest favorite of the series at seven-points, with total of 190. The Magic are 12-4 ATS off a road loss this season and are 7-1 UNDER off a spread loss.

Van Gundy received deserved criticism for playing J.J. Redick 29 minutes in Game 5, especially when he had only one basket.

Boston is 17-4 ATS after a win by six points or less this season and is 14-6 UNDER after consecutive wins. The C’s don’t win last contest without Stephon Marbury, can he deliver again?

The L.A. Lakers finally showed why they are best wager to win the NBA title. The Los Angeles Zen Master would never sink to such low depths of using simple math to motivate his team, but the Lakers are NBA champions if they understand 12 x 4 = 48.

Los Angeles showed they are capable of playing all 48 minutes, though in Game 5 they really didn’t need to. They shot over 51 percent, manufactured countless steals and actually showed toughness with Lamar Odom battling through bad back to play 19 minutes.

The Lakers are 31-14 (24-20-1 ATS) as visitors and if they come to play, should win this contest to close out series. It is all about steely resolve and Phil Jackson’s Lakers’ teams are 11-1 ATS in road games after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half.

Houston is on the receiving end of nine-points with total of 197. The Rockets have no chance to win if they can’t contain Lakers and not let them sniff the century mark. Houston is 15-4 ATS revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points and it comes as no surprise the average total score in those contests is 186.9. Rick Adelman’s club is 13-4 UNDER after allowing 105 points or more this season, but that included the big man in the middle.

The coverage turns over to ESPN on Thursday starting at 7 Eastern and the series leaders either closeout or head back home for Game 7 finale.

It's going to be empty Wednesday

Thanks for looking in, but I have the flu in a very bad way and will not be able to offer anything today. Hopefully with rest and fluids be back at you tomorrow.

Doug - 3DW

Anything possible in Denver for Game 5

For a series that has been either as bland as guacamole or as fiery as 100 jalapeño peppers, this next game has caught the attention of sports fans, bloggers, those on Twitter and sports bettors. Nobody expects Dallas to emerge victorious after losing first three games to Denver, however this is kind of like discovering a television show that you’ve grown to like recently and just found out it is about to be cancelled.

The first two games in Denver were like old episodes of the Andy Griffith show on TV Land. Mildly entertaining, with an outcome you saw coming. When the venue changed to Dallas, all of the sudden it looked like an episode of American Chopper.

Without going over ALL the delicious details, Mavericks owner Mark Cuban loses cool and calls out Kenyon Martin’s mother. After seeing the commotion he caused, he later apologizes. Kind of like throwing confetti and realizing later somebody has to clean it up.

Kenyon Martin evidently bought the Rosetta Stone version of Al Pacino in “Scarface” after Game 3 and let those in attendance and to a lesser degree those on television, share his new language and was particularly fond of one word he used over and over again.

If you are a Dallas fan, you can take solace in the fact; your team avoided being swept. The Mavericks to a man showed guts and pride, seldom associated with teams down 3-0. Dirk Nowitzki looked exactly like the same player that led Dallas to NBA Finals a few years ago. Josh Howard is running like Yao Ming, without the broken bones and showed extreme courage. The Mavs laid it all on the line and is 14-5 ATS after a combined score of 215 points or more this season.

The Denver bettor and fan is far from disappointed, as the Nuggets covered the spread for a ninth consecutive time. Denver didn’t play A-Game or put forth much defensive effort, yet could look at the box score and see 12 missed free throws cost them a chance at victory.
Coach George Karl had his first off game of the postseason also, failing to have his team switch properly on high screen and rolls and not doubling Nowitzki more, as Martin was schooled like a high-schooler.

There is blood in the water for Game 5 and Denver knows it. They are 38-8 (28-17-1 ATS) at the Pepsi Center and 15-4 ATS after allowing 100 points or more three straight games this season. Chris Anderson should be back to add energy, after missing last contest and Nuggets fans in attendance will be able to share the same kind of joy Mavs fans did two nights ago.
No need to worry about Carmelo Anthony or Chauncey Billups, they will be fine, it’s K-Mart who needs to take his game from the discount aisle back to blue light special.

DiamondSportsbook.com is offering the Nuggets as 9.5-point favorites and they are 10-1 ATS as a home chalk of 6.5 to 9 points this season. The total will be the highest of the series at 213.5 and Denver has to crash the boards with more authority and is 14-3 OVER in home games after consecutive affairs being outrebounded by opponent by 10 or more.

Is Dallas really capable of another max effort game on the road? The Mavericks are 3-12 ATS on the road after failing to cover four of their last five contests and are 24-10 OVER in the second round of the playoffs.

It’s too bad this won’t be a seven game series, since it has certainly turned dramatic and nobody does drama like TNT, who has Game 5 at 9 Eastern. Still, difficult to not see Denver is 8-2 and 9-1 ATS at home versus Dallas, even if they serve Pepsi Throwback at the Pepsi Center.

Time for a Terrific Tuesday

Came in at .500 yesterday with 1-1-1 record. Found a rare perfect Totals Trend in the senior circuit. Slick Rick delivered a winner and goes for another on the base paths. Today’s best system is 80 percent and 5-1 this year. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – The Washington and Pittsburgh NHL series has been every bit as good as hoped for and can’t wait for Game 7.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON home teams like the Mets, who are good hitting team (BA .275 or higher), against a good NL starting pitcher with ERA of 3.70 or less in May games. This simple system is 36-9, 80 percent, including 5-1 this year.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Washington Nats are 10-0 OVER after two games with no homers.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Slick Rick is now 10-2-1 the last four days and likes Toronto behind Roy Halladay.

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Will NBA home teams have heart tonight?

Both of Tuesday night’s NBA playoff series are tied at 2-2. In their previous contest, one of tonight’s home teams played with heart and the other was flat-lined. Each team will be able to retake the lead in the series and be one game away from advancing, with the question remaining; will the blood be pumping at enough of a rapid pace to finish the job?

For those that placed a futures wager on the Los Angeles Lakers to be NBA champions, you probably feel like you are being setup as part of a Ponzi scheme, with your money being leveraged to pay of somebody else if you were to lose.

Just when it seemed the Lakers couldn’t play any worse than they did in non-caring Game 1 performance, they sink three levels lower. The only player with a noticeable pulse in Houston Sunday was Jordan Farmar and when he is your hardest working player, it’s going to be a long four quarters.

For all the talk of playing more physical and being mentally tougher, Los Angeles looks very much like the team that played Boston in finals last year and was soft. If you think the Lakers come out and play like they are on fire, you might want to dial back expectations, since they are 8-27 ATS off a double digit loss as a favorite of six points or more.

Without Yao Ming, it’s very difficult for anyone not drinking Houston Rockets red kool-aid to believe Houston really has a chance to win the series. It would be one of the all-time great NBA playoff upsets if it were to happen, given the current circumstances, but unlike the Lakers, the Rockets play with a greater passion and genuinely seem to care, as opposed to their opponent.

No Yao means larger spread and DiamondSportsbook.com has the L.A. favored by 12, with 198 total. The Rockets are 19-7 ATS as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points and 19-7 UNDER if opponent plays over .600 basketball. The Lakers 14-27 ATS in home games revenging a same season loss and 9-1 UNDER after a game with 15 or less assists.

Earlier on the other coast, the Boston Celtics will try to do something they have failed to do in this series, win an odd-numbered contest. Boston has yet to lead in this series and can go up with a win. After being demolished in Game 3, the Celtics showed heart and guts in squeaking by Orlando 95-94 as five–point underdogs.

Boston even showed trust and faith in one another as teammates, as Paul Pierce passed out double-team, of what would have been a nearly impossible shot to make and found wide open Glen Davis who baby-ed in medium range jump shot for the winner.

“Since I have been with the Celtics, I have been trying to fine my niche in our system,” Davis said. “Doc (Rivers) told me that if you work on that shot and show me you can make it, I am going to let you shoot it. This year has been proof of hard work. You just have to be focused.”

Boston returns home as 2.5-point home favorites and they are not a lock to take command of series. In the postseason alone they are 4-2 SU with only two covers at TD Northbank and are 7-15 ATS as home favorites. The better news is they have carried momentum forward and are 15-5 ATS off an upset win as an underdog.

The loss by Orlando was certainly deflating, however the Magic have been resilient and are 18-6 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite. The negative is Dwight Howard’s team is 4-13 ATS in Bean-Town.

The total of 192 appears to be a compromise of the first four games. Boston is 9-1 OVER in a home game when the total is between 190 and 194.5 points this season and Orlando is 6-1 UNDER off a spread loss.

Tonight’s NBA action starts at 8 Eastern on TNT in Boston and immediately following the scene shifts to L.A. This is no place for the meek of heart and it will show this evening.

Keeping track of the Numbers Game

Every now and again it is a good time to take stock of things around us. Though we feel everything is under control, sometimes our perceptions don’t deal with the facts and we go around thinking we have the right information, when we really don’t. Decided to take some time and do some digging and see what can be found in the three major sports that are playing presently.

NBA

Wagering on the playoffs tends to be unsettling for most sports bettors. Starting with you can watch virtually every game and just have so few contests to take into account for, it’s as easy as grabbing that one more piece of pizza, when you have already had one too many. It can be a quixotic crusade if one gets upside down or if things go well, a real confidence booster.

Home Favorites against the spread have been about as ordinary has the come with 24-25-1 ATS record, with the chalk 36-14 straight up. The totals have shown a modest lean to the OVER side with 28-22 mark.

Road Favorites are 7-3 and 5-4-1 ATS and have played UNDER in eight of 10 meetings, including 6-0 UNDER in the Eastern Conference.

NHL

As usual, home ice is not especially important in the Stanley Cup playoffs, particularly early. The difference in talent between a high seed and low seed is not as dramatic as what you will find in professional basketball. Overall, home favorites are 29-21, with teams in the Western Conference doing a better job at 15-8.

Because postseason hockey is less free-wheeling, the UNDER is often a solid play and again has been in 2009 with 26-19-5 record.

Big home favorites (-200 or higher) have shown a real division by conferences thus far. East home faves are 4-0 and 3-1 OVER, while out West, they are losing proposition at 4-3 and are 5-1-1 UNDER.

Road favorites are 9-6 and the totals have been down the middle in these contests with 5-5-5 showing.

MLB

Toronto and the Los Angeles Dodgers have been the best teams in respective leagues to this point and winning wagers. The Blue Jays are 22-12, +9.4 units and the Dodgers are 22-11, +8.8 units. These teams are not flukes either, with Toronto +50 run differential and L.A. +57, each easily the best in their leagues.

In trying to spot frauds or clubs on the rise, its noteworthy the New York Yankees have allowed the most runs in baseball at 6.2 per game, including seven or more in 12 different games.

If Oakland can find offense, they might make large improvement. The A’s are only -10 run differential and are third in the American League in runs allowed at 131. The bullpen has been tremendous with 2.82 ERA, however scoring only 4.17 runs a game leaves at 11-18. They have been particularly vulnerable against left-hand starters with 3-11 mark.

Maybe the numbers will even out later, but Colorado is 12-18, despite a +3 run difference. The Rockies have been bitten by the one run bug, with 1-8 record in close encounters thus far in 2009.

If you don’t have MLB.TV, you are missing something as a sports bettor. Zack Greinke suffered his first loss of the season at the Big A in Anaheim Saturday, losing 1-0 to Joe Saunders and the Angels. Greinke went into that game just the third pitcher in baseball history to start 6-0 with ERA under 0.50 (Fernando Valenzuela and Walter Johnson the others). Though the 25-year old didn’t have his best stuff of the season, he allowed four hits over eight innings, with five strikeouts and no walks. Not giving up a free pass was particularly impressive, as he went to three balls with a number of Angels hitters.

Saunders was even more outstanding, yielding no runs on five hits, with six K’s and one walk in complete game shutout.

Greinke gave up double to Gary Mathews Jr. and two sacrifices later, Saunders had all the runs he needed in snappy 2:05 of old school baseball that was far from dull despite the score.

Thoughts and Opinions from HOS

So Long To A Class Act

NBA Hall of Famer Chuck Daly, who coached the Dream Team to the Olympic gold medal in 1992 after winning back-to-back NBA championships with the Detroit Pistons, died over the weekend at the age of 78. Perhaps more than any other professional basketball coach, Daly was able to transform a group of marginally talented players with wildly divergent personalities into a cohesive, motivated unit (remember Bill Laimbeer and Dennis Rodman?). Daly took over the Pistons in 1983 and led them to nine consecutive winning seasons. After leaving Detroit, he coached New Jersey and Vancouver before retiring in 1998. A snappy dresser, Daly will forever be remembered by the nickname Daddy Rich, bestowed upon him by Piston John Salley in honor of Daly’s penchant for impeccably tailored suits. Here’s to you, Chuck...

What’s In A Name?

This year’s ‘Mr. Irrelevant’ – the final player chosen in the NFL Draft – has been saddled all his life with a name that sounds like a vulgar insult. So when he appeared before the Kansas City media during a rookie minicamp on Saturday, he was ready for question No. 1. Your last name — uh, exactly how is it pronounced? “It’s ‘suck-up,’, believe it or not,” Ryan Succop said with a big, good-natured grin. When the room fell silent, he looked around and grinned again. “I’ve heard them all,” he said. “If you come up with something new, I’ll be impressed.” Succop failed to mention that he was teammates on last year’s South Carolina Gamecocks team with QB Chris Smelley.

Not So Fast, My Friends

With an injured Yao Ming on the bench for Sunday’s LA Lakers - Houston Rockets NBA Playoff game, the wagering public knew the Rockets had no chance to win and bet accordingly. WRONG! The line closed with Houston a whopping 8-point underdog and the home team never needed the points, cruising to a 99-87 upset that evened their Western Conference semifinal at two games apiece. Houston’s Shane Battier, who sank five 3-pointers while adding 23 points, said it best: “I think everyone but us got the memo that we weren’t supposed to show up without Yao.” The Lakers Kobe Bryant was held to a mere 15 points in the loss and the series now shifts back to LA where the home team has been installed as 12-point chalk in tomorrow night’s contest.

Horning In On The Action

Obviously distressed by all the attention given to Manny Ramirez’ recent drug-related suspension, NASCAR’s Jeremy Mayfield proved that the stock car boys can fail a random drug test just as easily as Major League Baseball players. Mayfield tested positive for a banned substance last weekend at Richmond International Raceway and has been suspended indefinitely by the sport’s ruling body. One thing is for sure: the substance could NOT have been performance-enhancing. Mayfield is currently mired in 44th spot in the 2009 Sprint Cup points standings, 1153 points behind leader Jeff Gordon.

Quote of the Week

Miami Herald columnist Greg Cote, arguing that QB Michael Vick should be reinstated in the NFL:“Ever hear of Leonard Little? The veteran St. Louis Rams defensive end once killed a woman while driving drunk. He was playing in a Super Bowl 16 months later. It was not to be his last DUI episode, either. He’s still in the league. But Vick can’t be? I’m sorry, anamalitos, but what Little did to that woman’s family is worse that what Vick did. By a lot. ”

Infomation from the House of Sports.

Firing up another week of wagering action

Back to back 2-1 days leaves us 49-34-2. Though a pretty thin day in sports found a super Trend in the NBA and dug around and uncovered 82 percent MLB totals system of note. Slick Rick of the Left Coast Connection had a very profitable weekend and gives his Free play. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – After yet another NBA playoff loss, it is time for me to pack it in for this season. After watching a game well on its way to Over, Boston didn’t make a basket for over seven minutes in the fourth quarter, which sent me to defeat. I know when not to send good money after bad situation and refuse to chase losses.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY UNDER the total with offensive team scoring 5.0 or more runs a game, against a NL starting pitcher with ERA between 3.70 to 4.20, with a starting pitcher whose strikes out five or more batters per start. The Mets and Johan Santana fit this 82 percent system. (41-9)

Free Basketball Trend -2) Have used this recently but it is worth repeating, the Cleveland Cavaliers are 14-2 ATS after successfully covering the spread in four or more consecutive games this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Slick Rick had 9-2 three day weekend and prefers the Giants this evening at home.

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NBA Sports Bettors to Ponder Mental State

As evidenced yesterday in Houston, how a professional basketball team feels about a given situation will likely set the tone for the eventual outcome. The old-school ploy of a few handicappers was to suggest they had people in the locker room or inside contacts that would give the sports bettor an edge. If that were true it would have helped in playing against the Lakers yesterday. It would also help to know if Cleveland and Denver want to sweep their respective series up 3-0 or would be content to go home and likely polish off inferior opponents.

Of the two, the Cavaliers look the best to put opposing team out of their misery. LeBron James is playing with the steely determination, probably not seen since No. 23 wore a Chicago Bulls uniform. James won the MVP trophy last week and in Game 3 gave sterling performance, scoring 47 points, nabbing 12 rebounds and handing out eight assists.

When asked what he does when James is having one of nights, Cleveland coach Mike Anderson said, “I try as much as possible,” Brown said Sunday, “to stay out of the way.”

DiamondSportsbook.com has Cleveland as amazing 10-point road favorites, with total of 183. The Cavs deserve this loft status, having outscored Atlanta by over 20 points per game and are destroying them on the boards, with 16 more rebounds per game.

Cleveland has won seven in a row and 12 of 13 (only loss was by one point when James and others either did not play or saw little floor time in final regular season game) and have covered a saucy 11 in a row.

The Cavaliers are 10-0 ATS after four straight wins by 10 points or more this season and have the defense to match, being 11-2 ATS after allowing 85 points or less three consecutive contests. Atlanta’s guard Joe Johnson really wants to be defiant, however the facts speak otherwise. “There’s no way you can tell us this team (Cleveland) is 20 to 30 points better than we are. It’s not possible.”-said Johnson.

Joe, I’m afraid it’s true.

Down in Dallas, if Denver comes to play, they can take a down in the dumps Mavericks team and end their suffering with a big first quarter. The entire Dallas organization is still grieving about the non-called intentional foul attempt by Antione Wright on Carmelo Anthony, who in turn sank game winning three-point shot, giving Denver 3-0 lead as four-point underdogs.

What comes to mind about all the Dallas whining is how they didn’t put the Nuggets away before the miracle shot. Denver missed 15 of first 17 shots and only had two buckets from further than five feet in the first 24 minutes, yet led by three at the half. Dallas also had a four point lead with 31 seconds left in the game and could not hold it.

The NBA in its infinite wisdom wasted little time turning out statement saying a foul probably should have been called. Oh, that makes Dallas feel a lot better! If you thought the 61 fouls in Game 3 was too many, wait until Game 4, both coaches better have reserves ready, since league officials are apt to call every visible or questionable foul and not be shown up.

Similar to Cleveland, Denver has turned into a printing press of cash payouts with 8-0 ATS record in the postseason. The Nuggets are 17-5 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog this season and could be facing a Dallas team who is thinking about the past instead of the present.

“This is about as tough of a loss as I've been a part of in my 11 years," said Dirk Nowitzki, who overcame a difficult week off the court to score 33 points and grab 16 rebounds. "That's a game we've got to have."

He’s right, since no team has ever come back down 3-0 in the NBA Playoffs. Dallas is a 1.5-point favorite and they are just 4-9 ATS in that role in the postseason. Denver is 6-0 against the spread after breaking the 100-point barrier and is 10-1 ATS in last 11 meetings with the Mavericks.

All signs point to sweeps on TNT tonight starting at 7 Eastern, however it all depends about the mental state.

Penguins and Blackhawks favored as closers

Two series underdogs did what most thought would formidable challenge to accomplish, win Game 5 on the road of conference semi-finals to take series lead. Now Pittsburgh and Chicago are poised with one more win, to advance to respective conference finals and still be very much alive for the Stanley Cup. Both teams will have home ice advantage with throaty fans looking to cement one more win.

For Pittsburgh fans, this is getting to be old hat. Though the players and uniform styles change, the Penguins know how to beat Washington. Pittsburgh will be looking for fourth series come from behind win in 17 years against the Capitals in Game 6. Pittsburgh punched across overtime goal in last contest and are 16-6 following a victory.

For the most part, the best Pens players have been at their best, with Evgeni Malkin having two goals and three assists and Sidney Crosby, five goals and three assists. Pittsburgh players and coaches realized that fear can be a great motivator.

“When you get down 2-0, that fear of not winning and not moving on is there,” coach Penguins coach Dan Bylsma said Sunday. “We got the desperation in our game we needed and we’ve put ourselves in a situation to move on. The guys in that (dressing) room know exactly what’s at stake and what’s in front of us for Game 6. We expect a team that’s going to be real desperate … a team that’s good, that’s dangerous, that’s going to be giving everything they’ve got.”

Washington was down 3-1 to New York Rangers in last series and found a way to win and they need to pull out another miracle to survive and their leader believes it’s possible.

Capitals star Alex Ovechkin has seven of Washington’s 15 goals in the series and says this about Game 6.

“Next game is going to be different,” Ovechkin said. “It’s not over yet. If somebody thinks it’s over, it’s not over. … We’re going to come back here (to Washington) again, Game 7.”

Washington is 16-4 revenging a loss where opponent scored four or more goals this season and is 7-1 in road games after three or more consecutive losses.

DiamondSportsbook.com has made Pittsburgh -180 money line favorites to close out the series with total Ov5.5. The Penguins are 16-4 as playoff favorites and 11-2 OVER after two straight games where both teams scored three goals or more. Washington has lost four of last five as postseason underdogs and is 7-3-1 OVER as dogs.

In Chicago, the Blackhawks have moved within one win game of their first conference finals appearance since 1995 after handling Vancouver 4-2 in Game 5. Chicago took advantage of foolish Canucks penalty in the third period with the score tied at 2-2 and Dave Bolland scored the go-ahead goal.

Hawks captain Jonathan Toews said this about Game 6. “We don’t want to get satisfied at all. We’ve got a huge opportunity and we’ve got to take advantage of it.”

The Hawks have won 13 of last 18 and are 5-1 in most recent encounters at the United Center.
Vancouver has to avoid taking unnecessary penalties and turn up the pressure on offense. In the last game, they total only 21 shots, including 10 the first 40 minutes. “There’s no doubt in my mind that we can play better,” Canucks coach Alain Vigneault said. “There’s a lot of room for improvement in our case.”

The Canucks are 12-3 in road games revenging a home loss versus opponent of two goals or more since the 2006-07 season and 5-0 the last two years. They are +155 money line underdogs with total listed at Ov5. Vancouver is 8-1 OVER when facing elimination in a playoff series and 9-2 in a road game when the total is five or less.

Chicago is 10-1 as -145 to -200 money line home favorites and is 12-4 UNDER in home games after a win by two goals or more this season.

The intense Game 6 action in Pittsburgh starts at 7 Eastern and 9 Eastern in Chicago. It promises to be quite a night of hockey.