With conference play on across the country, important matchups popup the second Saturday in October that will have a massive impact on what the standings will look like in early December. The winners will emerge with a decided edge and the losers will be playing catch-up unless the breaks fall their way.
Ole Miss has to beat Alabama, since another SEC loss relegates them to less bowl possibilities. The winner of Wisconsin and Ohio State grabs the upper hand in the Big Ten and both host Iowa. Oregon is playing like many thought they would back in August; however that has been in Eugene, they’ll see what they can do at UCLA. The Hawkeyes will try and move to 6-0 hosting Michigan after dark. The loser of Georgia and Tennessee will have to take a look at their goals for the rest of the year. Odds courtesy of Bookmaker.com.
Georgia (+1, 46) at Tennessee 12:00E SEC Network
The SEC is steeped in football tradition, which makes no sense why Georgia and Tennessee can’t be played on what it historically known for “the third Saturday in October”. Every college football fan south of the Mason-Dixon Line knows this; but the schedule-makers have decided to ignore tradition. The Bulldogs (3-2, 1-4 ATS) are off emotionally draining 20-13 home joust with LSU, which was their last home game until Nov.7. Coach Mark Richt’s squad has had to fight for everything this season, not having supreme talent difference. Quarterback Joe Cox has played fairly well, but has made his contribution to Georgia having 13 turnovers this season. A.J. Green and Cox have been clicking with more regularity, opening up the running game. The Bulldogs are 3-7 ATS in the first of two or more SEC true road encounters.
After losing to Auburn 26-22, Tennessee (2-3 SU&ATS) is in a very demanding position. The Volunteers defense has been struck by a large amount of injuries, forcing backups to compete in this extremely competitive conference. Coaches can say the next person has to be prepared and step up, however, when you are facing multiple substitutions, the task becomes more daunting. Tennessee is seeing more eight man fronts, daring quarterback Jonathan Crompton to throw and he needs to keep his poise and deliver strikes. The Vols are 10-23 ATS in home games in weeks 5 through 9.
Off last week’s challenging encounters, this is gut-check time for both SEC squads. Another conference loss could send Tennessee tumbling, with Alabama and South Carolina on deck after a bye week. The visiting team is 4-2 and 5-1 ATS and Georgia stays in the SEC East hunt with a victory. Totals players beware, the Vols are 10-0 UNDER against SEC opponents over the last two seasons.
3DWLine – Tennessee by 7
Alabama (-4.5, 46) at Mississippi 3:30E CBSAlabama (5-0, 4-1 ATS) continues to look like the most complete team in the country after cornering Kentucky 38-20 and can take another step closer to realizing just how good they could be. Quarterback Greg McElroy has surpassed all outsiders’ expectations and runs an efficient attack with ample weaponry. McElroy’s claim to fame before this season was sitting and waiting his turn to become starter. However, he’s earning other acclaim with 22-0 record as starter dating back to high school. To date, the defense has shutdown every offense, with its domineering defensive line and has incredible size and speed everywhere else. The Crimson Tide are 12-5-1 ATS on the road against ranked teams.
Mississippi’s hopes of being SEC West champs hinge on the outcome of this contest in Oxford. This means Jevan Snead has to forget about all the preseason hype that surrounded him and be the same player he was last season. The offense has had zero rhythm all season. Besides Snead’s accuracy issues, pass protection has been failing in obvious pass situations and the running game is more inconsistent than an episode of “Brothers”. The defense has carried Ole Miss (3-1, 2-1 ATS) and they will need another ginormous effort against the Crimson Tide. Mississippi is 9-3 ATS as home underdogs at The Grove vs ranked teams.
Alabama has won 13 of last 15 meetings, but the visitor is 2-7 ATS in last nine get-togethers. The Tide has won five in a row, including controversial contest two years ago in Oxford on shaky at best call that went their way late, that preserved 27-24 win as six-point road favorites. Bama has not covered the spread against the Rebels since 2004.
3DW Line – Alabama by 3.5
Wisconsin (+16, 47) at Ohio State 3:30E ABC-ESPNThis will be Wisconsin’s second straight road game and they are 29-14 ATS in road games in the first half of the season. QB Scott Tolzien continues to be efficient and re-juggled offensive line has kept his uniform clean. Tolzien has found different receivers, but when it’s time to move the Badgers into the end zone, tight end Garrett Graham is the preferred choice. On defense, Wisconsin (5-0, 2-2 ATS) is finding better combinations to slow opponents running game and rush the passer; nonetheless, the secondary still allows too many big plays. Wisky is 0-8 ATS versus excellent defensive teams allowing 285 or fewer yards per game over the last three seasons.
Since surrendering 27 points against the Navy’s option offense, Ohio State’s defense has conceded 32 total points in next four games. Normally this would draw huge media attention, but with the Buckeyes big game woes and the Big Ten’s fall in stature, the Kardashian’s attract more interest. Ohio State (4-1 SU&ATS) has turned into Coke Zero under coach Jim Tressel. They look and feel like the original, but are rather dull, leaving nobody all that excited. The defense recently pitched a pair of shutouts for the first time in 13 years, but few outside of Columbus could name a Buckeyes defensive starter. QB Terrelle Pryor was flashy recruit, but he’s been mostly effective in Tressel’s offense, lacking pizzazz. Ohio State is 3-7 ATS in the middle of a road sandwich.
Wisconsin is the only team to conquer Ohio State three times this decade and they are 6-3 ATS since 1996. No reason for the Buckeyes not to be focused since they will be large favorites in next three games and they are 17-4 ATS in home games versus offensive clubs averaging 425 or more yards per game.
3DW Line – Ohio State by 14.5
Oregon (-3.5, 46.5) at UCLA 3:30E ABC-GP
The word is out; don’t go to sleep on UCLA, as they stand 3-1 this season after Stanford conflict. The Bruins defense doesn’t have much depth, but their front-line players can stop the run and chase down frightened quarterbacks, ranking 20th nationally in total defense. Coach Rick Neuheisel isn’t certain if regular starting signal caller Kevin Prince’s broken jaw is sufficiently healed, but if not, senior Kevin Craft is an adequate replacement. Coach Rick would really like to get freshman Randall Carroll and Morrell Presley more involved in the passing game and utilize their speed for longer gains. The Bruins (3-1 ATS) are big and bad at home with 17-5 ATS Pac-10 record in the last five seasons.
Oregon (4-1, 3-2 ATS) followed up dismantling of California by rubbing out Washington State 52-6. This will be the Ducks first road game since losing to Boise State. Since dispirited effort in Idaho, the Oregon offense has averaged 40.7 points per game, with junior quarterback Jeremiah Masoli regaining his passing eye and touch. The big turnaround in confidence for Masoli has coincided with playing pitch and catch with tight end Ed Dickson. Redshirt freshman running back LaMichael James is quickly making people forget what’s his name (LeGarrette Blount). The Ducks make plenty of noise with a 9-2 spread record in their second road of the year.
Oregon would just as soon forget their last trip to the Rose Bowl, being shutout 16-0 as one-point favorites. The home team has had the higher number on the scoreboard in the last three meetings, but the visitor is 12-5 ATS the last 19 years. The Ducks play on the fake turf at home, nevertheless are 19-8 ATS playing on real grass during the regular season. The oddsmakers number might be key, since the underdog is 11-5 against the spread.
3DW Line – Oregon by 1Michigan (+8, 47.5) at Iowa 8:00E ABC
Michigan (4-1, 3-2 ATS) ran out of gas at in-state rival Michigan State 26-20 in overtime and takes to the road a second straight time. One major difference in the Wolverines revival has been coach Rich Rodriquez’s ability to sell this team on his methods. Michigan is marginally more talented than a season ago, having more speed in key positions along with quarterback more suited to run the offense. However, this team enjoyed early success and came together. The Wolverines are averaging 34 points per game mostly behind QB Tate Forcier, thanks in part to offensive line punching holes in defenses. The Michigan stop unit has yet to stop an offense not in the MAC (ranked 91st) and lacks ability and presumably desire to raise their level of play. Ann Arbor’s finest are 2-6-1 the last few years as Big Ten road underdogs.
After completing non-conference slate with triumph against Arkansas State 24-21, the 5-0 Hawkeyes (3-1 ATS) return to Big Ten battles. This is homecoming weekend and if Iowa can win the next three weeks (at Wisconsin and at Michigan State), the conference crown could be decided quite possibly when they travel to Ohio State in mid-November. Iowa has won with defense and special teams this year. It’s been a foregone conclusion the defense will find a strategy to stop opposing offense (10th in scoring defense) and one aspect of the special teams has delivered weekly. The running game is in good hands with Brandon Wegher and Adam Robinson, but at some point, QB Ricky Stanzi is going to have to lead his team to victory. The Hawkeyes are 27-8 ATS versus rushing teams averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards a carry.
Michigan arrives in Iowa City 7-1 ATS in the second of two straight road encounters. These teams don’t meet annually, but the Hawkeyes are 6-2-2 ATS in last 10 meetings.
3DW Line – Iowa by 9
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