Thanksgiving and other Thursday NFL Trends

Let’s stop all this talk about changing out Detroit and Dallas on Thanksgiving to allow other teams to play. The Lions have been bad for years, so what, we still watch at least a good portion of the game and would it kill you to talk to a family member if the game isn’t a classic. We have three games to choose from during the course of the day, let’s just enjoy what we have.

• If both teams played at home last week, the home underdog is 2-9 ATS and 9-2 OVER. (Detroit and Denver)
• If both teams played at home last week, the home favorite is 10-4-1 ATS. (Dallas)
• If both teams were favorites in last contest, the home team 7-12-2 ATS (Detroit)
• If the home team was favored last week and the visitor was an underdog, the home team is 11-0 ATS. (Dallas)
• If the home team was an underdog in last game and the visiting team was a favorite, the home club is 1-8 ATS and 5-1 UNDER. (Denver)
• If the home town team is off a SU loss and the visitor is off a SU win, the road team is 7-1 ATS and 8-3 UNDER. (New York Giants)
• If the road team is off two wins, they are 10-3 ATS. (Green Bay)
• Road teams that were underdogs last week are 5-22 ATS. (Oakland)
• Home favorites of seven or more 7-1 UNDER. (Dallas)
• Home teams that were favored by six or more points in last contest are 12-3-1 ATS. (Dallas)
• Home teams of a SU win are 9-4-1 ATS and 22-13-1 OVER (Detroit and Dallas)
• Home teams off a SU loss are 4-8 ATS. (Denver)
• Home teams after scoring 28 or more points are 8-1 ATS and 12-4-1 OVER. (Detroit)
• In the last six years, home favorites are 18-8-1 ATS, including 8-1 ATS if favored by a touchdown or more. (Dallas)
• Away favorites are 9-0 ATS since 2004. (Green Bay and New York Giants)

Additional angles to think about.

• Take the OVER on turkey consumption.
• Play the OVER on one person having too much to drink.
• Take the OVER on at least 20 percent of those in attendance taking a nap.
• Play the OVER on potatoes consumed.
• Take the OVER on eyes rolled, snickers and laughter.
• Take the UNDER on cranberries eaten.
• Take the OVER on pumpkin pie and desserts.

College Football's Best Rivalries Betting Info

The fabric of college football is wrapped in its traditions and many of its colorful rivalries that make college football such a great sport. This upcoming week, many of the more historic matchups will take place yet again this holiday weekend starting Thanksgiving night.

On Thursday night, No. 3 Texas and Texas A&M will hookup for their annual battle. These archrivals have always had a “big brother, little brother” relationship, with the Aggies trying to outdo Texas. Years ago these two schools set up a program that awarded points to every athletic competition, be it men’s or women’s sports, which were totaled at the end of the year and a winner was announced. Texas has won this competition every year. The home team is 5-6, but 8-2-1 against the spread. Texas is still in the BCS hunt and will be looking to chew up the Aggies like a leftover turkey leg.

On Friday afternoon, there is no game that has loyalties running deeper than Alabama and Auburn. This is a regionalized affair that is important to every Alabamian. In a state that has had a century-old love affair with college football, this one is about 60 minutes of football determining bragging rights in Alabama for the next 364 days. The losers have only "next year" to cling to because the scores of other games during the season really do not matter.

The game is known as the Iron Bowl because its birthplace is in Birmingham, which was built around huge iron ore deposits in the Alabama hill country. What is truly unusual about this historic rivalry is it was not played for 41 years from 1907-1948. The universities had reached an impasse in 1907, with unfair officiating being one of the charges, and neither side could come to an agreement, thus no game was played in that time period. The 1950’s saw Auburn’s Shug Jordan dominate the Crimson Tide, until Paul “Bear” Bryant returned and eventually the series turned to Alabama’s favor. Bryant teams went on to crush the Tigers for years before losing in his final game in the series. Shortly thereafter, “The Bear” announced his retirement and two months later he passed away. The names like Joe Namath, Ken Stabler, Bo Jackson and Shaun Alexander are all part of the lore along with the infamous kicker Van Kiffen, who made what became known as “The Kick” in 1985. Kiffen drilled a 52-yard field goal with just seconds left to give Alabama a 25-23 triumph.

No.2 Alabama can’t afford a misstep if it expects to keep national championship hopes alive. The Crimson Tide lead the all-time series 39-33-1 and will face a vengeful Auburn squad who was embarrassed 36-0 last season, the most lop-sided margin in the series since 1962. This will be Tigers coach Gene Chizik’s first real involvement in this rivalry, rest assured he’s heard about its importance since his hiring. Auburn can shatter most of the dreams of Alabama if they could win for the seventh time (4-3 ATS) in the last eight years. The home team however is a dismal 5-9 against the spread.

The action really picks up on Saturday with the Egg Bowl rivalry, as Mississippi heads over to Starkville to renew unpleasantries with the Bulldogs. This match-up is best described as a “family feud” as read in William Barner’s book on the history of the rivalry. Back in the old days, fans would break out into fights before, during and after the games. In 1926, the fighting got so ugly after the first Ole Miss victory in 13 years that officials came up with the concept of the Golden Egg Trophy, awarded to the winner in a formal ceremony each year. It was supposed to cut down on such ugliness, instead the fans just fought outside the stadium as opposed to in it. The Rebels have carried the action most of the last decade, being an underdog just once 2001. Ole Miss has won five of last seven and is 7-2-1 ATS in last 10 contests.

A regionalized rivalry known as the “Border War” between Kansas and Missouri will once again have great meaning to the combatants. This will be the third consecutive year they will meet in neutral Kansas City (19 of the first 20 games were played in K.C.). Surprisingly this is the second oldest rivalry in D-1 (FBS), with the winner earning The Indian War Drum. The underdog is 9-5 ATS the last 14 years, which includes the Jayhawks 40-37 upset as 15-point dogs last year. The all-time series record is a dead heat after all these years at 54-54, with 9 ties.

The “Bedlam Game” will be played in Norman this season, when the Oklahoma State Cowboys arrive. It’s hard to almost call this a rivalry since Oklahoma leads with an all-time record of 79-16-7. Billionaire Boone Pickens is doing his best to change all that, upgrading the facilities in Stillwater to be better than any in the Big 12 and among the best in the country. Unfortunately, he can’t buy the Cowboys many victories since his increased involvement in his alma mater. The home team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 fracases.

The battle of Palmetto State is a heated rivalry with origins back to the 1880’s, concerning historic tensions regarding their respective charters. The two institutions are separated by just over 125 miles, holding the longest uninterrupted series in the South and the third longest uninterrupted series overall, having been played every year since 1909. The meeting has a strange ritual dating back to early 1900’s and is carried on today. Without going into all the long details, South Carolina and Clemson University bring a made-up symbol about the other and burns it on Friday night before the big encounter. The 2004 game is the most recent contest etched in the minds of the schools and people across the country, when both teams started brawling at the conclusion of Clemson’s 29-7 victory. Each team had won a total of six games that year and was technically bowl eligible. However, both schools elected to forfeit their postseason opportunity because of the shameful nature of the fight. This series typifies as much as any the frenzied excitement, with the visitor 15-5 ATS in the last 20 meetings. How Clemson approaches this battle will be intriguing, with more important game against Georgia Tech next for ACC title.

Georgia and Georgia Tech can best be explained by book Bill Cromartie penned – Clean, Good Old Fashion Hate. These teams can’t even agree on the number of games they have competed on the gridiron. Georgia Tech’s records show two more then Georgia’s, as the Bulldogs do not acknowledge the games played in 1943-44, since many of their players were in World War II. Georgia has a 20-game edge in the series after the Yellow Jackets thrilling 45-42 upset last year in Athens. That was coach Mark Richt’s first loss (7-1, 5-1-1 ATS) in this encounter, raising the visitors record to 9-2 ATS since 1998.

Always of significance is the BYU and Utah conflict, known as the “Holy War”. The term Holy War, rather than denoting a war between religions, refers to the intensity of the competitors. Both teams have 9-2 record and the fierceness of these battles in Provo and Salt Lake City is legendary in these parts. These conflicts are annually very close. Only twice in the last 12 years has a game been decided by more than a touchdown. The underdog is a top quality 12-4 ATS.

Florida State and Florida is all about protecting the home turf as demonstrated by 15-6 ATS record in which some of the best athletes in college football have played in this battle. Florida has had the better of it in recent years with five consecutive wins and like most years, the outcome has national implications.

Don't blame us for Ball State and Western Michigan

For most of the season, the Broncos defense has been a liability allowing 28 points per game and ranking 107th in total defense, surrendering 437.3 yards per game. Ten days ago the defense as a group stepped up and forced six turnovers against Eastern Michigan and won handily 35-13 as 13-point favorites. They will attempt to generate the same kind of pressure and hard hitting against Ball State on ESPN2 MAC contest.

Western Michigan (5-6, 3-8 ATS) players after a long season, seem to understand finally what is needed. “I felt things pick up right from the beginning,” Broncos safety Jamail Berry said. “We just came out with the emphasis (that) we need turnovers. Anything’s possible from the D-line all the way back to the secondary. That’s just what we tried to do.”

The Broncos have not been a good cover team the last few years, sporting a 10-22 ATS record. Quarterback Tim Hiller has 98 career touchdown passes and two more ties the MAC’s all-time record and a victory keeps a glimmer of hope for a bowl invite at 6-6.

Ball State (1-10, 5-6 ATS) fell off the planet this season after playing in the conference championship game a season ago. The Cardinals suffered extensive losses on offense and it showed, averaging 18.9 points per game.

They also lost their coach Brady Hoke, who maybe knew what he was doing in getting out and taking San Diego State head job. Ball State made a curious hire in naming Stan Parrish as head coach. Though his credentials as assistant are excellent, coming into this position his record was 2-31-1 and has kept along same career path. After being blasted by Central Michigan 35-3 in final home game and passing for 105 yards, Ball State is 17-6 ATS after gaining 125 or less passing yards in last their game.

Bookmaker.com has Western Michigan as 11-point favorites with total 51.5 and the Broncos are 12-5 ATS in home season finales. Ball State is 9-1 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons.

This utterly fascinating (really?) MAC matchup begins at 7:00 Eastern and Ball State is 6-2 SU and ATS in last eight meetings.

The beginning of holiday week

We should have gone 3-0 yesterday, but the Giants lousy pass defense couldn’t hold a two touchdown lead in the fourth quarter, allowing us to slip to 2-1. Today out Best System is in the NFL and is in article listed below. The Top Trend heads all the way out to Maui and the Sal’s Top Free Play will arrive shortly.Good Luck

What I learned yesterday – The Colts defeated the Ravens, 17-15, to continue their recent trend of extending their winning streak in closely-contested games. The Colts' three other victories this month had come by scores of 18-14 over the 49ers, 20-17 over the Texans and 35-34 over the Patriots, and as in their win over the Ravens, the Colts had trailed in the fourth quarter in each game. Indianapolis became the first team in NFL history to win four consecutive games after trailing during the fourth quarter in each of those games.

The Colts became the first team in NFL history to win four consecutive games in the same season by a total margin of 10-or-fewer points. And they did it by filling an inside straight, having won those games by margins of one, two, three and four points. The previous record was set by the 1986 Giants: en route to winning the Super Bowl, Bill Parcells's team defeated the Cowboys, Eagles, Vikings and Broncos by a combined margin of 11 points. Thanks, Elias

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Free Football System-1) See the Monday night system in below article

Free Basketball Trend-2) The Cincinnati Bearcats are 1-12 ATS after two or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Sal’s says take the points with the Titans, he's also playing them on the money line.

Paul Buck’s Monday Night Magic- Guaranteed

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Houston in Big Division Matchup

Two weeks after Texans suffered a hard-fought 20-17 defeat in Indianapolis; their run defense will be put to the test by league rushing leader Chris Johnson, who had a career day in Tennessee’s Week 2 home loss to them with 284 total yards and three touchdowns. But Johnson, who rushed for 197 yards and two scores and caught a 69-yard touchdown pass from Kerry Collins that day, had the spotlight stolen from him by Matt Schaub (357 yards, four touchdown passes) as Houston won for just the second time in Nashville in eight tries.

The 5-4 Texans have had 15 days ponder its heartbreaking loss at Indy, as Kris Brown’s last second potential game-tying 42-yard field goal attempt sailed wide left, and now they prepare for first true franchise run toward the postseason. How Houston (5-3-1 ATS) comes out on Monday night vs. Tennessee will say a lot about how much they’ve grown. They have won two straight against Tennessee, but only by a combined four points. At home, they are just 1-3 SU and ATS in the last four meetings and 4-10 ATS against a team who won last game by 14 or more points.

The Tennessee Titans (3-6, 4-5 ATS) have opened a Pandora’s Box of questions in winning three in a row after losing first six games of the season. Should Tennessee and coach Jeff Fisher be praised for turning season around or chastised for protracted beginning of the year? Coach Fisher, who didn’t appear to be any fan of Vince Young, was left with little choice but to play the former Texas star after humbling 59-0 pasting by New England.

Young has brought energy to the offense in his three starts and been efficient (44-for-62, 507 yards, two touchdowns, one interception) in leading his squad to a trio of wins and covers.

Coach Fisher’s club is just 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six AFC South contests, however is 12-3 ATS in road games after three or more consecutive wins against the spread.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Houston as four-point favorites with a total of 48 and Schaub assuredly will attack the Titans 31st ranked pass defense from the start. The Texans are 13-4 ATS when they gain eight or more net passing yards per attempt and are 12-3 OVER versus division opponents over the last three seasons.

Tennessee’s running game keys their offense and they are 16-6 ATS after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in two straight games. Tonight’s visitors are 10-2 UNDER on the road revenging a close loss by seven points or less.

Tennessee covers if they run the ball effectively against Houston’s 14th ranked run defense. The Texans are not known for gap control, which is real plus for Johnson, who can pop into the secondary in a heartbeat. Last week Buffalo made life tough on the Titans by playing eight-men in the box and press coverage on their unimpressive receivers, before self-destructing. With Houston having two weeks to prepare, Tennessee will see more the same, which means taking shots down the field. Young’s arm is more than strong enough; he just needs the pass catchers to make a few plays. After a mediocre start, the Titans pass rush is coming along and they will need to pressure Schaub. Monday night road teams with only one appearance on the season are 34-17-2 ATS, including 5-2 ATS in 2009.

Houston covers if they create a semblance of a running game with zone-blocking scheme. Granted, the Texans are 28th rushing the pigskin, but Tennessee is nothing special stopping the run (16th) and is vulnerable against teams that run and pass the ball effectively. This helps Schaub, whose been forced to throw the ball too often, which has led to nine picks. Just keeping the Titans honest on defense allows Houston to play to their strength, the passing game, which is the best way to move the ball against them. Though Young has shown greater maturity and better decision-making, a steady pass rush that doesn’t allow him to leave the pocket makes a below average passer even worse. Home teams own a record of 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in Texans post-bye week games since 2003.

Monday Night System – Same as last week’s, Play Against home team off a bye hosting a division foe. (12-2 ATS L16Y, 2-0 this season)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

Seeking the Big Bounce Back

Hoy Cow, got kicked around but good yesterday with 0-4 record. We’ll look to bounce back immediately, starting with NFL system that is 86.6 percent. The Top Trend is once again perfect, just in the opposite direction. Sal is back and gives out his top play. Good Luck

What I learned yesterday – I’ve been getting my can kicked in college football (below.500) and was talking to friend from Las Vegas whom I haven’t spoken to since early September. He’s up on all happenings on the betting scene in the town and he had a very interesting observation about college football. He said guys that are math-based handicappers are having a below average to bad years (that would be me), but streak players or guys that fly from the seat of their pants are doing quite well, because how they look at numbers and situations is different and things have gone their way.

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Free Football System-1) PLAY ON favorites off a bye week that lost by four or less points in their last outing as a favorite. Since 1990, this system is 13-2 ATS and is focused on the Giants this week.

Free Football Trend-2) The Jacksonville Jaguars are 1-10 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons, losing by more than two points per game.

Free Football Pick -3) One of my favorite guys in Sal, who is on 14-5 roll in the NFL, including his sweet call on Miami on Thursday. Today he doesn’t care what the price is on the Chargers, take them.

3Daily Winners Guaranteed NFL Game of the Week.

The Platinum Sheet has an expert hitting 57 percent ATS picking ALL NFL games.

NFL teams in need of bounce back in Week 11

Last week saw a number of professionals football teams lose or play poorly. The New England Patriots are the case study for this week, having to overcome an excruciating loss and arguably coach’s miscalculation. Coaches Rex Ryan and Josh McDaniels have gone from looking like the next Vince Lombardi to Rich Kotite in just weeks, as their teams seek a win. Atlanta’s season is going the wrong direction and the Giants have not won Oct.11. Dallas went from being to team on the move in the NFC to almost being shutout, how will they respond against division foe. The Colts and Ravens were beatable last week, and go head to head trying to get back in groove of playing best football.

Indianapolis at Baltimore 1:00E CBS

After rallying to top the Patriots Sunday night, Indianapolis’ perfect record is still intact, having now set its sights on home field advantage in the playoffs. The Colts (9-0, 5-4 ATS) begin a two-game road trip in Baltimore, looking to extend a 7-1-1 ATS stretch on the road. The average score in this season’s four wins has been 32.7-12.0. Baltimore (5-4, 6-3 ATS) comes in off the Monday night game in Cleveland, and is riding a stretch of 10-3 ATS in its previous 13 as hosts. Only three of those games were as the home underdog however, and the Ravens are 2-1 SU and ATS in those. The Colts have won six straight games in this series, including three over the last two seasons, and are 5-1 ATS in that span. Indy has scored 26 points per game on the vaunted Ravens’ defense in those contests.

Keys to the Game-

This isn’t the same Baltimore defense from earlier in the decade and Peyton Manning has stayed away from trouble and picked the Ravens apart. Nobody ever runs really well on Baltimore’s defense, as noted by 3.5 yards per carry (3rd), however using Joseph Addai to keep the Ravens off-balance in the run and passing game opens up other possibilities. Indianapolis is 6-0 ATS in road games off a home win and no-cover as a favorite and will look to stop Ravens run game and make Joe Flacco a pocket passer, whose been sacked 20 times.

The Ravens will be without LB Terrell Suggs, which means DC Greg Mattison has to be innovative to create doubt or hesitation in Manning’s mind. The blueprint has been out there, run the ball on the Colts and take advantage of all scoring opportunities to limit the Indianapolis offense. With three distinctly different running backs, find the one that troubles the Colts defense the most. The Birds are 12-2 ATS after allowing 100 or less passing yards in their last game and have to bracket TE Dallas Clark, taking away one of Manning’s favorite targets.

3DW Line – Indianapolis by 3
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Indianapolis -2, 44

Atlanta at N.Y. Giants 1:00E FOX

New York (5-4 SU&ATS) has had two weeks to sit and dwell on what has become a four-game losing streak, and another setback against Atlanta in Week 11 would mark the longest skid since 2004, Tom Coughlin’s first year with the team. It would also mark the fifth straight home loss to the Falcons, both SU and ATS. The Giants are still in the hunt in the NFC East, owning a win over the division leading Cowboys already, but are facing a schedule which features five out of seven games against bonafide playoff contenders. They are just 2-4 SU and 2-3-1 ATS coming out of the bye week under Coughlin. Atlanta (5-4, 6-3 ATS) plays its second straight road game after losing at Carolina, before heading home for its next three contests. The Falcons are 7-0 ATS as underdogs in November vs. opponent off back-to-back losses.

Keys to the Game-

Atlanta knew coming into the season they had a few defensive deficiencies, but they would have never guessed they would be ranked 25th against the run and 28th against the pass. This week they have to beat the Giants at the point of attack and disguise coverage’s to protect corners. With no Michael Turner, Jason Snelling and possibly Jerious Norwood have to be effective, especially for third down runs and in the red zone. The Falcons are 11-27 ATS vs. good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points a game in the second half of season and need the Matty Ice from last season and earlier this campaign and not the one that has 10 interceptions in last five games.

With Atlanta’s poor run defense, the Giants should bludgeon the Birds for four quarters in a test of manhood, a Coughlin specialty. The New York run defense has been up and down and not having to face Turner, who was hitting his stride, should be a big help. The G-Men are 14-5 ATS after playing a game at home over the last three seasons, in part because defensive line has been able to create constant pressure on the quarterback. This is imperative against Atlanta with a weakened secondary.

3DW Line – Giants by 3
Bookmaker.com Line – Giants -7, 46

Washington at Dallas 1:00E FOX

Dallas (6-3, 5-4 ATS) returns home after a two-game road trip with the NFC East Division lead in hand and getting ready to face Washington and Oakland, a pair of teams that have combined for five wins in 2009. Dallas is 14-3 SU and 11-6 ATS when hosting Washington since 1992, but overall the series has been dominated by underdogs, 14-9 SU and 18-5 ATS in the last 23 meetings. The Cowboys have struggled to cover in the heavy favorite role under Wade Phillips, despite sparkling 8-0 SU record as double-digit chalk, they are just 3-5 ATS. They are also just 7-15 ATS in previous divisional games, including 3-8 ATS at home. Dallas is 6-3 ATS after losing in Green Bay. The Redskins (2-7 ATS) are 3-6 after upsetting Denver at home last Sunday, and have covered the Vegas number in just three of their last 17 games overall.

Keys to the Game-

This is a winnable game if Washington plays intelligently. On defense, they are among the best in winning first down and have to maintain that edge, forcing Dallas to throw. In passing situations, bombard the Cowboys tackles, with Mark Colombo out and Flozell Adams looking like he could be timed with hour glass in pass drop-backs last week. The Washington secondary can’t suckered into being out of position by double moves and pump fakes. The Skins are 9-1 ATS vs. passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards a game after the midpoint of the season. On offense, keep honest down and distances like they did last week and Jason Campbell has to throw with same confidence and readiness as he showed when pressured by the Broncos.

Coach Wade Phillips receives plenty of heat; however he didn’t pick the offensive coordinator and Jason Garrett has run the Dallas offense like he has the Patriots team of 2007, as the running backs have taken 30 handoffs in last two contests. Dallas is second to Tennessee in yards per carry at 5.1, run the ball! The fact is Tony Romo is a far more effective quarterback with a running game and the passing game opens up for the Boys when they commit. Santana Moss could be headed to the Hall of Fame if he played against everyone else like he does against Dallas. The Cowboys move to 10-1 ATS after a double digit loss if they put the clamps in Moss.

3DW Line – Dallas by 10
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Dallas -11, 41.5

N.Y. Jets at New England 4:15E CBS

The budding rivalry between the Jets and Patriots picked up some intensity in Week 2 when New York won at home. This time around, it’s New England (6-3, 5-4 ATS) that gets to play the role as host. The light switch might have gone on for the Patriots in that 16-9 loss, as since that point, they’ve gone on a tear, 5-2 SU & ATS while scoring 33 points per game. Still, it will be interesting to see their reaction after the meltdown loss to the Colts. New England will be looking to stem the tide of 3-9 ATS record at home when hosting the Jets. As a divisional host, Belichick’s team is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven as well. The Jets (4-5 ATS) are 4-5 after losing to Jacksonville, and three of their losses have come in divisional play. Dating back to mid-’07, New York is 5-1 ATS on the road vs. AFC East rivals.

Keys to the Game –

Mark Sanchez has regressed at various points this season and won’t see the same vanilla defense he faced the last time he saw the Patriots uniforms. The old adage of players needing to make plays falls directly into Sanchez’s lap. The Jets are 16-7-1 ATS as division away dogs and have to attempt to win the battle of field position, be it by special teams or forcing turnovers. Wes Welker missed the first matchup, he must be contained or the schwarmerei about the Jets will continue.

Laurence Maroney's fumble near the goal line was important play last week and he played little after the miscue. The New England running game wasn’t the same afterwards, which helped fuel the Colts comeback. Maroney or some Patriots running back has to carry the pigskin and allow them to control the line of scrimmage. Welker is so important to New England’s passing game, since he opens up the other levels. If the former Texas Tech star has eight or more catches, Pats cruise. No matter what has been said, the Patriots defense has been slighted by their head coach. It’s up to the players and defensive coaches to rebuild confidence and make stops, preferably three and outs, which bring back the mojo. New England is 26-10 ATS revenging a same season loss against opponent

3DW Line – New England by 13.5
Bookmaker.com Line – New England -10.5, 45

San Diego at Denver 4:15E CBS

For the second straight season, San Diego (6-3, 4-5 ATS) let Denver (6-3 SU&ATS) out to a comfortable lead in the AFC West Division. Once again, the Chargers have reeled the Broncos back in, and have pulled even as the teams prepare to meet on Sunday. Denver owns a head-to-head victory in San Diego already, so another victory could go a long way to clinching a first division crown since 2005. Of late though, it is the Chargers who have been playing well in their trips to Mile High, having covered three straight while posting 2-1 record. If you recall last year’s meeting, the Broncos prevailed in a one-point game gift wrapped by referee Ed Hochuli’s botched fumble call. That game will surely be reflected on this week, as will Denver’s 1-8 ATS record at home vs. AFC West foes since 2006. The straight up is 21-1-4 against the spread.

Keys to the Game-

It appears Chris Simms will get the start for Denver, who looked rustier than a 1974 Chevy Vega. Though coach McDaniels has assured the game plan won’t change with Simms, he’s going to have to be more accurate on passes 15 or more yards down the field to take advantage of his talented receivers and keep San Diego from crowding the line of scrimmage. The offense line has to start taking charge again. Denver averaged 132 yards rushing in six-game winning streak and 71yards per contest in last three losses. The offense has to start controlling the clock again with the defense wearing out. The Broncos are 4-13 ATS vs. passing teams with a completion percentage of 61 percent or better and to reverse that trend they have to do what they did the first matchup, get to Phillip Rivers.

In the first game, San Diego lost the special teams battle with two Eddie Royal kick returns and the offensive line could not keep Rivers in vertical position. Both of these elements have to be addressed, especially against angry and desperate home team. The Chargers are 13-3 ATS after two or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons and the defense can’t get lazy. Last week against Eagles in their comeback and previous game with Denver, the secondary and linebackers took terrible angles in surrendering too many yards after the catch. If San Diego tackles effectively, they might be one first place all by themselves at the end of the day.

3DWLine – San Diego by 3.5
Diamond Sportsbook.com Line – San Diego -4, 44.5

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

A Big Saturday and Commentary

Today we have four instead of the usual three plays, as our tremendous 90 percent system yields two plays. The Top Trend is a reverse 100 percent selection and Slick Rick is on fire this week and offers his Free Top Play. Good Luck

What I thought this week- Whatever your opinion of Bill Belichick’s decision, did you notice that all the people that agreed with it in the media had the same smugness as Bill himself? Like it was some foregone conclusion that Peyton Manning could go 70 yards just as easily as going 29. I wondered if now departed Dick Jauron had made the same exact call, if he would have as many devoted followers.

Oh look, Brady Quinn just threw another long pass out of bounds by 15 yards. Speaking of Cleveland, great read about John Gruden by Mike Silver in Yahoo Sports. (Click here)

Because I switched off the game last week, I wasn’t aware Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh went for two points with his team ahead 48-21 over USC. It’s fine if Harbaugh wants to rub USC’s nose in it, that’s his choice, but please save me the next coach-speak about “winning with dignity” or “act like we’ve been here before”. Just remember Jimbo payback can be a B****. Now go sit on your throne in your 70G customized private bathroom, you’ve earned it.

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Free Football System-1) PLAY ON favorites of 3.5 to 10 points, who are average passing team (175-230 PY/game), facing an average passing defense (175-230 PY/game), after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. This system is remarkable 27-3 ATS, 90 percent, which includes 4-0 this season. Two teams rise to the surface for this one, Oregon and Fresno State.

Free Football Trend-2) BYU is 0-11 ATS as home favorite of less than 14 points off back to back road games.

Free Football Pick -3) Slick Rick is 20-3 in all his side and totals wagers this week rides a hot Stanford team today.

3Daily Winners Guaranteed C-USA Football Game of the Year

The Platinum Sheet has two experts hitting 60 percent on Best Bets.

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Not your ordinary college football Saturday

The third Saturday in November is always special on the gridiron. No matter the circumstances, Ohio State and Michigan automatically makes this day standout. However, this is not all that matters in college football, not a long shot. The ACC Atlantic could well be determined if Clemson wins, nevertheless, Boston College is right there to take their place should they falter. Oregon heads the desert at night, still searching for Rose Bowl bid and takes on assiduous Arizona squad. Nebraska wraps up Big 12 North with victory at home; while Texas looks to make it official they would play the Cornhuskers for the conference crown with a win over Kansas. While LSU and Mississippi have are playing only for pride, these are still two of the better teams in the country, which makes this intriguing SEC matchup. All numbers from Bookmaker.com.

Ohio State (-12, 47) at Michigan 12:00E ABC

From the standpoint of being truly meaningful, this won’t be the most dynamic of Ohio State and Michigan matchups, nevertheless it still counts just because it is these two teams. The Buckeyes squeaked by Iowa at home last week 27-24 in overtime and will be playing in first Rose Bowl in 13 years. The last thing Ohio State (9-2, 8-3 ATS ) looked like a month ago was team going to Pasadena as Big Ten representative after losing at Purdue 26-18, as two touchdown road favorites. But as coach Jim Tressel said, “We have to go back to work and fix things” which is exactly what the Buckeyes did. What Ohio State has really done in putting this four-game winning streak together is keep it simple and basic. Play great defense, win the field position battle and make enough plays on offense to turn the tide of the game. The Buckeyes are 14-4 ATS a Big ten road favorites since 2005.

After a promising 4-0 start, Michigan (5-6, 4-6 ATS) is staggering to the finish line. Their only win after quick beginning is against FCS Delaware State. The defense is squarely to blame, having conceded 35 points per game in Big Ten action. As coached Rich Rodriguez correctly pointed out after recent 38-36 loss to Purdue, “You score 36 points you ought to be able to win it.”

This is the one contest on the schedule that can heal some Michigan wounds and though Ohio State is still going to the Rose Bowl on January 1, the Wolverines would take away satisfaction in knowing they made Ohio State co-champions of the conference, instead of outright winners. The issue for Michigan is how to change, since they are 1-9 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two years losing by 14.1 points per contest.

Ohio State is on 7-1 and 6-2 ATS run against Michigan in the “Big Game” and has held the Wolverines to seven or less points in consecutive games for the first time in 54 years.

3DW Line – Ohio State by 15

North Carolina (+3.5, 38.5) at Boston College 12:00E ESPN2

Boston College will be going to a bowl game somewhere this season, but before they do, their preference would be to play in third consecutive ACC championship contest. The Eagles could have incurred a tumultuous campaign, but head coach Frank Spaziani brought stability to the program this season and for the most part it has been business as usual for Boston College (7-3, 6-2-1 ATS). Quarterback Dave Shinskie is a freshman in name only, after spending six seasons in the Minnesota Twins farm system. He added life to a stale offense and wide receiver Rich Gunnell will leave the school at or near the top of numerous B.C. pass catching records. Boston College has regained their home field edge this season, with 6-0 and 5-0 ATS mark. In conference action the last 11 years, the Eagles are 27-12 ATS.

This year has not produced the numbers many thought possible in Butch Davis’ third season, but don’t blame the defense. The entire year, this group has been in the Top 15 in several defensive categories and realistically has only had one bad half which came against Florida State in 30-27 loss. What has been North Carolina’s (7-3, 5-4 ATS) strength is ability to get off the field, with opposing teams converting on just over 30 percent on third down, among the best in the nation. The offense has been plagued by injuries and new receivers learning to blend with quarterback T.J. Yates. The Tar Heels are 12-4 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record the last three years.

This is North Carolina’s first ever trip to Chestnut Hill and they are 13-8 ATS on the November road. Boston College is 9-2 ATS in home games over the last two seasons and 7-3 ATS in last home contest over the past 10 years.

3DW Line – Boston College by 1.5

LSU (+4.5, 42.5) at Mississippi 3:30E CBS

This was supposed to be a portentous conflict back in August, but Alabama killed that notion and other SEC losses took care of it living up to preseason hype. That doesn’t mean it won’t hold value, since these two squads came in with high hopes and want to finish the regular season proudly. The goal for LSU (8-2, 4-5-1 ATS) is simple, win 10 games, which would be the fourth such occurrence under coach Les Miles in the last five years. The Tigers have several players sucking it up and playing hurt. Quarterback Jordan Jefferson is playing with ankle issues and a number of linemen on either side of the ball are limping or playing thru the pain. Look for coach Miles to dial up the pressure on Ole Miss QB Jevan Snead, who has not reacted well in the face of adversity. The Tigers will most likely walk up a safety to take away Rebels run game, to force obvious passing situations. Check this number out, LSU is 1-12-3 ATS in the SEC off a non-conference tilt.

This is Mississippi’s last home game of the season and they would like to put away previous disappointments. This would ideal situation for Snead to regain confidence and get ready for rivalry game with Mississippi State next week. Snead’s lack of confidence has made him reluctant decision-maker, which has led to interceptions or trying to steer the ball to receivers, instead of playing instinctively. Running backs Dexter McCluster and Brandon Bolden have been good behind a spotty offensive line, especially at tackle. The Rebels (7-3, 6-3 ATS) are 10-5 ATS vs. ranked teams at home.

Ole Miss has been the spread winner 10 of last 12 games played against LSU.

3DW Line – Mississippi by 4.5

Virginia (+21, 44.5) at Clemson 3:30E ABC/GP

Since being upset by Maryland 24-21 as 12.5-point road favorites, the Clemson Tigers (7-3, 7-2 ATS) have rattled off five consecutive wins and are still in the hunt for a first ACC Atlantic Division crown. The Tigers revival has been about playing more complete football games. In the losses against the Terps and Georgia Tech, they appeared like many Clemson teams before them, unfocused and not ready to play. Though they played less than perfect games against conference partners Miami and Florida State, they kept the down time to a minimum and made the right plays when it counted most. Clemson also has skill position players that are a threat to score from anywhere. Running back C.J. Spiller and receiver Jacoby Ford are a threat to score anytime they touch the ball. Clemson has alternated spread wins and losses the last 10 games before rivalry game with South Carolina and they beat Virginia last year 13-3 as two-point favorites. Oh boy!

Virginia (3-7, 4-4-1 ATS) is relegated to third losing season in four years, which could spell the end of nine years of Al Groh as coach in Charlottesville. After averaging in the upper 20’s in points scored for a number of years, the Cavaliers have been at 20 or below in their losing seasons. (19.8 in 2009) This year Groh tried to install spread offense run by offensive coordinator Gregg Brandon, but wasn’t happy with results and went back to pro-style, which left the team without an offensive identity and explains ranking 118th in total offense. Virginia is 18-33 ATS in road games in the second half of the season.

Virginia is 8-36-1 all-time against Clemson; however the underdog is on 12-4 ATS run.

3DW Line – Clemson by 20.5

Kansas State (+16.5, 44.5) at Nebraska 7:45E ESPN

The rehiring of Bill Snyder at Kansas State coach was met with tremendous skepticism, as many figured his run had ended after finishing below .500 in 2004 and 2005. The program did not improve under Ron Prince and Snyder was thought to be a good go-between until a younger and more energetic coach could be hired in Manhattan. An unexpected development occurred along the way. The Wildcats started playing more disciplined football than what was seen in recent years, which helped reduce mistakes. With the Big 12 North full of average teams, Kansas State (6-5, 6-4 ATS) can potentially win the division with the upset of Nebraska. The offensive line came together and running back Daniel Thomas has been putting the hurt on opposing tacklers, while the ‘Cats play keep away with the pigskin. K-State comes into this meaningful confrontation 9-1 ATS after a loss by 21 or more points under coach Snyder since 1992.

The best description of Nebraska (7-3 SU&ATS) football in 2009 style is “they find a way”. It ends up that phrase has a dual meaning. Against Iowa State and Virginia Tech, a -10 turnover margin sealed a pair of losses. However, despite seven first downs and 180 yards of offense against Oklahoma, the Cornhuskers picked off five Sooners passes in 10-3 upset in Lincoln. Take away the Texas Tech misstep; Nebraska defenders have earned back the name “Blackshirts”, holding nine other opponents to 17 points or less. Inconsistent quarterback play has stalled the offense, placing dependence on junior RB Roy Helu to carry the load. The Huskers are 8-3 in home finales, but only 3-8 ATS.

If you haven’t seen Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, make a point, he’s a shredder. These teams have played every year since 1922 and K-State in 6-3 ATS the last nine. The favorite is 5-2 ATS since 2002.

3DW Line – Nebraska by 14

Oregon (-6, 60) at Arizona 8:00E ABC/GP

Over most of this decade, the amount of intrigue in the Pacific 10 this time of year has been who is going to win the conference in basketball, as USC has held a stranglehold on this league. But with the Trojans being knocked out and Oregon slipping at Stanford two weeks ago, an un-thought of matchup like this breathes life into the league.

Let’s start with trivia question, what Pac-10 team has never won the conference and played in Rose Bowl? If you answered Arizona, you are a sage college football fan. Coach Mike Stoops has had the wolves at his doorstep the last couple of years, yet somehow his team pulls an upset late and plays well enough down the stretch. This season the Wildcats didn’t wait as long to get started and are 6-3 and 4-5 ATS. The Arizona defense has been troubled by teams that can move the ball, but the insertion of Nick Foles at quarterback has kept the ‘Cats in every game. The Tucson troops are just 3-12 ATS in last home game.

Oregon (8-2, 7-3 ATS) rebounded from Stanford debacle in dumping the other state of Arizona university last week 44-21. The Ducks still control their own destiny with two more wins to become Pac-10 champs for the first time since 2001 and they haven’t been part of the Rose Bowl pageantry since the 1994 season. Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli and the offense should have too much speed for Arizona defense, but Wildcats stadium is every bit as intimidating as Autzen Stadium when the joint is packed, which should help their defense.

Despite the Ducks defense having a number of very good games, they are better at running and chasing and not facing power football. Oregon is 13-5 and 12-6 ATS against Zona, yet is 1-3 ATS in last four.

3DW Line – Oregon by 5

Kansas (+27.5, 57.5) at Texas 8:00E ABC/GP

A combination of factors has led to a disappointing campaign for Kansas QB Todd Reesing. A less talented squad, especially on defense, coupled with having to play the stronger contingent from the Big 12 South, has led to 1-5 and 0-6 ATS mark in the conference. Like a lot of Big 12 signal callers coming off banner seasons, Reesing hasn’t been able to put it together. A bothersome groin injury and the lack of running game has allowed defenses to play deep zones and take away quick strike offense that was prevalent two years ago in Orange Bowl season. On defense; not enough size, speed or quickness. Jayhawks defensive coaches have played conservative to force opponents to work the length of the field and blitzed like madmen to force negative plays. Nothing much has worked over a complete contest. Unlike the hoops squad, Kansas (5-5, 2-7 ATS) is 1-5 ATS vs. Top 10 teams.

Texas (10-0, 4-5-1 ATS) has three more games to win before presumed date with SEC champion for the national championship. The way the season has worked out, next week’s rivalry battle at Texas A&M might be the most difficult. One aspect coach Mack Brown would like to repair in the last few games is his players’ mental outlook. When the opposing team is a perceived threat, Texas players have been ready since the first kickoff; however in many other contests in which the Horns were Texas-sized favorites, the wakeup call often came in the second quarter or later, before dominating. Texas is 13-3 ATS in home finales and Colt McCoy could win the Heisman with three outstanding performances.

Kansas hasn’t beaten Texas since 1938, though only seven games have been played with the Jayhawks 0-7 and 1-6 ATS.

3DW Line – Texas by 31

Boise State Seeks Televised Blowout

Boise State continues its quest for perfection, playing its final road game of 2009. The Broncos failed to impress two weeks ago at Louisiana Tech in televised tilt and their impressive win over Idaho was largely seen as highlights. Boise State needs gigantic blowout and to keep winning to set up possible Fiesta Bowl date.

That is not a sure thing either, since it looks like TCU, who is two spots ahead of the Broncos in the latest BCS ratings, is also going to be undefeated this season. That places Boise State in at-large pool and no non-BCS team has ever been selected as an at-large team. With some luck of other teams losing and truly impressive wins in last three WAC contests, they still have a chance.

This Boise State (10-0, 7-2 ATS) team is different than their predecessors, oh sure the 43.6 points per game is impressive, however this team has a formidable defense. Coach Chris Peterson has assembled a hard working crew that runs to the football and to borrow from ESPN analyst Chris Speilman “arrives with bad intentions”. They are ranked 12th in total defense at 295.8 yards per game and are 8-1 ATS after six or more consecutive straight up wins over the last two seasons. On the season they have forced 27 turnovers.

Quarterback Kellen Moore leads the nation in pass efficiency, touchdown passes and touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has 32 touchdown passes and three interceptions. Moore and tailback Jeremy Avery also helped Boise State solve red zone problems they had until recently. With Utah State 106th in the county in total defense, allowing 435.9 yards per game, the Broncos are 7-0 ATS when they gain 450 to 500 total yards since last year.

Utah State’s record (3-7) doesn’t reflect a general improvement under first year coach Gary Anderson; however they have been much more competitive. This is authenticated by the fact the Aggies are 7-3 against the oddsmakers in 2009.

Romney Stadium should be packed for this nationally televised cable contest and coach Anderson knows a thing or two about the spotlight, having been the defensive coordinator at Utah last year when his team ousted Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.

“I think it is big for us regardless of the outcome of the game. We are on national television. I remember going through this at Utah where our helmet wasn’t known. Now it is,” Andersen said. “Boise State was the same way at one point. It is not that way anymore. That is where we are at. We will take that national stage anyway we can.” Utah State is 8-1 ATS in home lined games over the last two seasons.

Junior QB Diondre Borel has led efficient attack that averages 33 points per game at home and like Moore; he doesn’t give the ball away, with only three picks. He helped lead USU to 24-9 win over San Jose State at home last week and they are 10-2 ATS after playing a game at home since 2007.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Boise State as 23.5-point favorites, with a total of 61. The Broncos are 31-11 ATS off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival and 38-12 ATS off two straight wins over WAC opponent. This might be the wrong contest to show the strides Utah State has made since they are 0-8, 0-7-1 ATS against the Broncos. They have lost last four games by 49-11 average score.

But that doesn’t mean Utah State won’t be psyched. “We are all excited, especially the seniors. We haven’t really thought about it being senior night. It is just another game we have to prepare for,” USU senior linebacker Adrian Bybee said. “It is our last home game and we want to keep our home record strong. We want to finish up with a 4-1 record at home. That is something, as seniors, that we can be proud of. That is what we are preparing for.”

A sharp Utah State media relations person found the Aggies have won six of last seven SU on November 20. Nevertheless, Utah State is 0-25 vs Top 25 teams the last 18 years and has lost its last 15 non-Saturday encounters.

The excitement starts 9:30 Eastern on ESPN2.

In Search of Perfect Thursday

I was shaky on the system play yesterday and it was proven out for 1-2 day. Today’s system has two offerings on the same game both over 80 percent. Today you get to choose. The Top Trend is in a televised NBA game and absolutely perfect. For today’s Free Play it is one-sided in the NFL. Good Luck

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Free Football System-1) PLAY ON favorites when playing on a Thursday. (25-6 ATS L5Y) OR>>> PLAY AGAINST favorites after covering the spread in four or five out of their last six games, with a losing record. (24-3 ATS (24-3 ATS L5Y)

Free Basketball Trend-2) The Chicago Bulls are 8-0 ATS after playing a game as a road favorite over the last two seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Out of 14 LCC members on tonight’s NFL game, 12 are backing Carolina.

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Carolina at Miami Matchup

For any team with a smashmouth running attack, it stands to reason that a strong offensive line and group of running backs would be key. So it’s easy to see why Carolina and Miami might be in a little trouble when they square off in Week 11. The Panthers lost starting left tackle Jordan Gross to a broken ankle in last week’s 28-19 win over Atlanta, while the status of Dolphins Ronnie Brown now officially listed as done for the season. The Wildcat stud left last week’s 25-23 win over Tampa Bay in the third quarter with an ankle injury, though Ricky Williams more than picked up the slack with 102 yards on 20 carries.

Miami and Carolina have met just three times previously and not in Carolina since 1998. The Dolphins swept all three prior meetings, both SU and ATS, holding the Panthers to just 39 points. The fourth meeting could be the deathblow to the loser’s postseason hopes for 2009.

Both teams are 4-5 SU and ATS after nine games and currently on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. Miami has lost three of its four games on the road this season, but that road has been a treacherous one, as all four opponents have a winning record at this point. Under coach Tony Sparano, the ‘Fins are 0-7 ATS when squaring off vs. NFC foes.

Miami’s defense was picked apart late in last week’s game by rookie Josh Freeman for a pair of touchdowns and were bailed out by quarterback Chad Henne’s game-saving field goal dive that secured the win over the Bucs. The Dolphins arrive in Carolina 7-19-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Carolina stumbled out of the gate with a 0-3 start but has rebounded with victories in four of the last six, due in large part to much-improved play by veteran quarterback Jake Delhomme. In the first three games he threw two touchdowns with seven interceptions, but coming out of the win over the Falcons has now gone interception-free for three in a row. The rededication to the running game has also helped.

DeAngelo Williams has run for 640 yards and five touchdowns over the last five games, while Jonathan Stewart’s numbers are equally impressive (328 yards, five touchdowns). The loss of Gross for the balance of the season is a big one, but it didn’t hurt the ground attack right off the bat. The two still combined for 174 yards against the Falcons last week.

Carolina is only 2-2 at home with one cover and is 0-5 ATS in November off a division upset as underdog. Bookmaker.com has Carolina as three-point favorites, with total of 42.5. This could be a situational wagering conflict. The Panthers are 15-5 ATS vs. poor passing teams like Miami (30th) averaging 175 or less passing yards a game in the second half of the season. While Miami is 9-23 ATS versus rushing teams like Carolina (3rd) averaging 130 or more rushing yards a game after the midpoint of the season.

This is NFL Network telecast which begins at 8:20 Eastern. With Miami’s defense allowing 25.2 points per game, it should be noted that the Panthers are 41-17 ATS vs. teams allowing 24 or more per outing.

Steve Makinen of StatFox and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

Cowboys expected to ride Buffalos hard

Among the surprises in college football this season is Oklahoma State. Not in the traditional sense, though the possibility of the Cowboys finishing in second place in the Big 12 South does carry some shock value. It is how Oklahoma State has compiled 8-2 record, having a solid defense that is the cause for surprise.

Oklahoma State’s season has been startling, considering their terrific trio has been reduced to basically just one, with quarterback Zac Robinson carrying the burden. All-America receiver Dez Bryant was lost because of a NCAA suspension and running back Kendall Hunter has been slowed by a nagging ankle/foot injuries and only recently has come back to play, lacking his usual explosiveness.

The Cowboys (6-3 ATS) are ranked fourth in the Big 12 in defense and 32nd nationally, surrendering 333.9 yards per game. Okie State has been incredibly stingy on the ground, allowing 89.6 yards per game, good for sixth nationally. Linebacker Patrick Lavine is among those who accepted the challenge once the offense lost several weapons. “He’s a great playmaker for us,” said teammate Andre Sexton, another senior linebacker. “He steps up and makes game-changing plays when we need it.”

Oklahoma State has lost only to Texas in last eight games and is 22-8 ATS in home games after covering the spread in two out of their last three contests. The Cowboys will take on Colorado (3-7, 5-5 ATS), who might have another coach on the sidelines next season.

Dan Hawkins is dismissing reports he’s under fire despite 16-31 record in Boulder. Though Hawkins was brought in to help clean up the program from the scandal-laden days under Gary Barnett and succeeded, big time football isn’t just about getting the players to go to class and keep trouble to a minimum, it’s about winning. This will be the third time in four years with no bowl game for Buffs under Hawkins, who are plagued with inconsistencies and penalties.

This is a burdensome spot Colorado, having lost at Iowa State 17-10 on Saturday and having to playing another road game on a short week. Under Hawkins, the Buffs are 4-12 ATS after scoring 14 points or less and 4-13 against the spread after playing their last game on the road.

Bookmaker.com has Oklahoma State as 17-point home favorites with total of 47.5, suggesting a final score of roughly 32-15. If that score appears to low, than the fact the Cowboys are 11-3 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons and 13-4-2 ATS at home in November should be more comforting. Colorado doesn’t look to be in a very good situation and 6-15 ATS road record backs up that point up. However, for those that see the glass half full as opposed to half empty, the Buffalos are 4-0 ATS catching 17 or more points in last four tries.

ESPN of course will have this telecast at 7:45 Eastern, with Chris Fowler watching his alma mater. (Colorado if you didn’t know) In the last 17 encounters between these squads, the SU winner has won by 10 or more points 14 times.

Better late than never Wednesday

The day to day nature of the NBA got us yesterday with a pair of losses. Tonight we have a CFB play against a decided road favorite at 25-5 ATS. In hockey, Colorado shows up in perfect situation for Top Trend and our numbers show an NBA team being undervalued against the oddsmakers for Free play. Good Luck

What I learned this week- This aspect 3Daily Winners will be closer to game times over the next few weeks, thought I'd let you know.

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Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST favorites of 10.5 to 21 points like Central Michigan with a win percentage of 60-80 percent off a home win, playing a terrible team with win percentage below 25 percent. This system checks in at 25-5 ATS, 83.3 percent the last five years.

Free Hockey Trend-2) The Colorado Avalanche is 7-0 revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) A check of the numbers has Atlanta Hawks undervalued as a favorite by more than four points making them enticing play.

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Time for a MAC Attack

For weekday college football, it’s been all Mid-American Conference all the time this month and this continues on Hump Day with a two more tilts. Central Michigan is trying to win the league championship for a third time in four years and takes another step closer with a victory over Ball State. Miami-O tries to end dismal season on a positive, hosting Buffalo in the other MAC matchup.

Central Michigan at Ball State 8:00E ESPN2

The Chippewas held serve in blowout win over Toledo 56-28 last week and will try to do the same at Ball State. Central Michigan (8-2, 7-2 ATS) forced five turnovers and quarterback Dan LeFevour threw for 341 yards showing exactly why they are unbeaten (5-1 ATS) in conference play. The Chippewas have big game with Northern Illinois next and are 9-1 ATS before they play them.

Ball State (1-9, 5-4 ATS) just finished with the Huskies, losing 26-20 and is on short week for final home game. The Cardinals are 12-2 ATS in home games having lost two out of their last three games.

It’s been a long season for the Cardinals and with Central Michigan averaging 33.1 points per game, the Ball State is going to have to step up as the Cardinals are 24-49 ATS when they allow 28 or more points since 1992.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Chippewas favored by -15 and the home team is 1-4 ATS in last five meetings; however Ball State is 5-2 ATS in last contest at Scheumann Stadium.

Buffalo at Miami-O 6:00E ESPNU

The whole televised deal hasn’t worked out for Buffalo (3-7, 4-6 ATS), losing last two games by on total of four points on the world wide leader’s family of networks. The Bulls offense moves the ball, but doesn’t always finish drives properly; accounting for the fact they average 23.8 points per game against opponents that have allowed 26.1.

Miami-O (1-10, 5-6 ATS) has had forgettable season and will try and send seniors out with one last blast of glory. The RedHawks problems are easily definable, -23 turnover margin. About the only positive is redshirt freshman QB Zac Dysert’s play. He too has thrown enough interceptions that a meager Miami defense cannot overcome. They are 2-10 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last three seasons.

Buffalo is a 3.5-point favorite and is 11-2 ATS against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse.

Time for Tuesday's Top Tips

Officially had a 1-0 day with our trend play being a fortunate winner, though all three systems ending up being correct. For Tuesday, we have an exceptional total system that is 28-5 over an extended period of time. The Top Trend searches for another winner and has LeBron and company on its side. Good Luck

What I saw yesterday- It’s very difficult to believe the Cleveland Browns will win another game this season, unless the entire opposing team comes down with H1N1 flu.

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Free Basketball System-1) PLAY UNDER on all teams like Denver where the total is greater than or equal to 200, after going Under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, against opponent who went Under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game. In the last 13 years this totals system is 28-5, 84.8 percent, including 1-0 this season. Note – Line dropped three points already.

Free Basketball Trend-2) The Cleveland Cavaliers are 19-2 ATS after leading their last three games by five or more points at the half over the last two seasons, with average margin 16.4 PPG.

Free Basketball Pick -3) By 5:30 Eastern

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College Basketball Marathon

Starting at midnight Eastern, ESPN will have 24 hours of continuous college basketball coverage with enough games to take care of the insomniac and the early and late morning-risers. It is a feast for the basketball bettor, a great way to kick-start another season. Without further ado, here is the complete menu on ESPN, with ESPN2 and ESPNU to also have contests to consider.

11:59E Cal-State Fullerton vs. UCLA (-16.5)

The Titans have the unenviable task of replacing Big West Player of the Year Josh Akognon, however the roster is loaded with nine newcomers many of which are designed to improve rebounding margin which was -4.2 per game a season ago. UCLA will have a completely different look about them with nine freshmen and sophomores. As the season commences, the only familiar name to most people is holdover Michael Roll. Cal-State is 1-4 ATS in last five underdog roles. Cal-State Full wins 68-65 2OT

2:00E San Diego State vs St. Mary’s (-5.5)

San Diego State lost four starters, yet most experts figure the Aztecs will be as good if not better with solid transfers and junior college players meshing with holdovers like power forward Billy White, forward Tim Shelton and guard D.J. Gay. St. Mary’s maybe without outstanding guard Paddy Mills, but Wayne Hunter and Omar Samhan are expected to step up and be the leaders. Matthew Dellavedova could be the next great player from Australia for the Gaels, who are 9-3-1 ATS in non-conference action. St. Mary's wins 80-58

4:00E Northern Colorado vs Hawaii (-5.5)

Northern Colorado lost nine games by five points or less a season ago and they hope starting guards Will Figures and Devon Beitzel can help turn those defeats into wins with more experience. New players will be in the backcourt for Hawaii, looking to increase scoring and be help to forward Roderick Flemings, who has all-WAC talent. The Bears are 14-4-1 ATS in non-Big Sky action, while the Warriors are 10-27-1 ATS in non-conference contests. Northern Colorado wins 81-75

6:00E Monmouth vs St. Peter’s (TBD)

Talk about your early risers! Monmouth welcomes back four starters, including All-NEC guard Jeremy Goode, but lost their big people from a year ago and is 7-3 ATS on the road. St. Peter’s was 6-24 two seasons ago and believes they can finish .500 with a veteran cast back. The Peacocks believe juco forward Jeron Belin could be the reason they have success. St. Pete’s has covered 16 of last 21 games. St.Peter's wins 58-34

8:00E Drexel vs Niagara (-9.5)

Besides St. Peter’s from the MAAC, Niagara is another team from the conference looking to get an early start to the day. The Purple Eagles are perennial contender in their conference and have a veteran backcourt to go along with all-MAAC performer Bilal Benn. Drexel was a surprise team in the CAA last season and will look to build on that foundation with leading returning scorer Gerald Colds and senior Leon Spencer. The Dragons hope to be breathing fire off OT loss to St. Joe’s, yet are 6-17-3 ATS off spread loss. Niagara wins 76-69

10:00E Clemson vs Liberty (+10.5)

Clemson lost a lot of ability from last year’s squad, however coach Oliver Purnell brought in his best recruiting class to play along with holdovers Trevor Booker and point guard Demontez Stitt. The Tigers are 9-3 ATS against teams with winning home record. Liberty was 23-12 last season, but lost talented freshmen Brolin Floyd and Seth Curry, who decided to transfer to bigger schools. Kyle Ohman and Jesse Sanders are main returning starters. Clemson wins 79-39

Noon E Northeastern vs Siena (-8.5)

Siena is the overwhelming choice to make a third consecutive appearance in the NCAA Tournament, something that hasn’t happened in this conference in 20 years. Four starters and Sixth Man of the Year in the conference gives the Saints a formidable group. During lunch it would be smart idea to check this contest out and catch a glimpse of Matt Janning, a versatile all-around shooter for Northeastern. He’ll face a Saints team that is 7-1 ATS in non-conference action.

2:00E UALR vs Tulsa (-16.5)

Arkansas-Little Rock bade farewell to four seniors who helped them to back-to-back Sun Belt divisional titles. This means more than ever they will be dependent on coach Steve Shields stifling defensive principles and they are 8-2 ATS in last 10 road games. With Memphis no longer a sure thing in C-USA, Tulsa is ready to move up and claim the league crown. The return of senior center Jerome Jordan and fellow senior guard Ben Uzoh makes this a real possibility. The Golden Hurricane is 24-9-2 ATS following a SU win of more than 20 points.

4:00E Temple vs Georgetown (-8.5)

Senior guard Ryan Brooks and junior forward Lavoy Allen are Temple’s only returning starters and they will try to improve upon the Owls recent 1-4 ATS mark against the Big East. Georgetown appears poised to rebound from last year’s disappointing season, with Chris Wright and Austin Freeman giving them explosive backcourt. Center Greg Monroe showed enough to almost enter NBA Draft after freshman campaign but wisely came back for second season. The Hoyas have a ways to go to gain the trust of basketball bettors with 5-15-1 ATS record in last 21 tilts.

6:00E Charlotte vs. Duke (TBD )

Duke has handily won its first two games without its full complement of players; however will welcome back guard Nolan Smith who was suspended two games for playing in an unsanctioned summer league. Veteran players like Kyle Singler and Jon Scheyer more than made up for the difference. Charlotte won last night 75-61 over Elon, behind Shamari Spears 23 points. Duke is 9-3 ATS after allowing 50 or less points in last game. This is contest is part of the pre-season NIT and he winner will advance to the semifinals at Madison Square Garden on Nov. 25.

8:00E Gonzaga vs Michigan State (-11)

For the first time in years, Gonzaga doesn’t look like a Top 15 team with frontcourt wiped out. Versatile guard Matt Bouldin is the one remaining stud, with Steven Gray and Demetri Goodson solid backcourt companions. The Bulldogs are 4-12 ATS against teams with winning record, though seldom as underdog. What does second-ranked Michigan State do for encore after being national runner-up? Find ways to improve with deep and talent-laden roster under coach Tom Izzo. The Spartans are 11-3-1 ATS off a by 20 or more.

10:00E Memphis vs Kansas (-11)

How quickly the mighty reload. Less than two years removed from national championship, Kansas is a nearly unanimous preseason No.1. The talent is deep and the addition of guard Xavier Henry, gives coach Bill Self a wing player that can go inside or out, something missing a season ago. Kansas is on 27-9-1 ATS run. Senior G Doneal Mack is the only player back for Memphis with more than 10 starts, as they start a new era with Josh Pastner now as coach. A falloff is expected but how much is to be determined. The Tigers are 6-2 ATS in last eight non-conference clashes.

It's not just another Monday

We’ll take the old 2-1 day anytime to improve recent hot streak to 10-3. Had to make decision to pass on Top System because we have many to choose from in today’s listed articles. Hope it doesn’t haunt me like Bill Belichick’s. The Top Trend is in the NBA and Free Play is coming .Good Luck

What I learned yesterday- The Titans broke at 17-all tie with 24 points in the fourth quarter for a 41-17 win over the Bills. Buffalo, which was outscored 22-0 in the final period of last week's loss to Houston, became the first team in NFL history to be outscored by more than 21 points in the fourth quarter of consecutive games.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Systems-1)We have a whole bunch to consider today in articles below.

Free Basketball Trend-2) The Atlanta Hawks are 14-3 ATS after three or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Most of the guys from the LCC are evidently not to crazy about today and the game with the most action is the Monday night contest, with seven on Cleveland and six on Baltimore.

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NBA Monday System Watch

It’s the start of another week in the NBA with only three games on the menu. Each contest has a valuable system that that can help shape a potential wager or change one’s minded to open up other possibilities. In any event, here are the Top NBA systems for a Monday night of action.

Charlotte at Orlando (-11.5, 178)

The Orlando Magic (7-3, 6-4 ATS) will have the services of Rashard Lewis once again, whose been sitting out a 10-game suspension after testing positive for an elevated testosterone level. The Magic continued New Jersey’s woes this past Friday with 88-82 victory, while Charlotte (3-6, 5-4 ATS) offensive funk continued with 80-74 loss against Portland Saturday.

This sets up potential OVER play, since teams like Orlando after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less, and facing opponent who tallied 35 points or less in the first half of last game are 44-16, 73.3 percent the last five years.

Portland at Atlanta (-4, 189)

The Trailblazers (8-3 SU&ATS) and the Hawks (8-2, 9-1 ATS) are two of the best teams in the early going of the NBA season and having backers build significant bankrolls in the early going with a combined 17-4 spread record.

Something will have to give tonight as Atlanta has won and covered four in a row and Portland is on even better streak at six straight in the two categories. Sportsbook.com has the Hawks as home favorites and that might be correct, as road teams having four or more consecutive wins, playing their third road game in four days are 16-38 ATS, 27 percent in next outing since 2005.

Dallas at Milwaukee (-1.5, 190.5)

Michael Redd better get healthy quick or he might turn into Wally Pipp. (Google it) Rookie Brandon Jennings set a Milwaukee franchise record with 55 points Saturday night in 129-125 win over Golden State (previous rookie record mark of 51 set by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - then known as Lew Alcindor), in just his eighth game. Redd has been out since the second game of the season for the Bucks (5-2 SU&ATS) with a knee injury and Milwaukee has won four consecutively.

Dallas (7-3 SU&ATS) is 2-1 on the last stop of a four-game road trip, which included 95-90 win yesterday at Detroit as 4.5-point favorites. This will be the Mavericks fifth contest in a week, yet the situation favors them. In November, teams playing that many games in seven days, with a line are +3 to -3, are 17-4 ATS the last three years.

The Cleveland Browns are so ugly......

Even the biggest of Browns fans is fed up. “Dawg Pound Mike,” whose real name is Mike Randall, could have an impact Monday night than anyone in uniform. The longtime season-ticket holder in the front row of the rowdy end zone bleacher section is encouraging fans to stay away from their seats for the opening kickoff of this game against Baltimore to send a message to owner Randy Lerner about the sad state of the franchise.

Cleveland is 1-7 (3-5 ATS) and is invoking sarcastic humor from long time comedians of the past like Henny Youngman and Rodney Dangerfield. The Browns’ quarterbacks have been so bad they went massage parlor and found out it was self service.

Cleveland has scored only five offensive touchdowns in 2009, and quarterbacks Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn have combined for three touchdown passes and 13 interceptions. Even Josh Cribbs, the team’s most spectacular player, has been picked off. The Browns are dead last in passing offense at 121.5 yards per game and average 4.2 yards per pass attempt. Cleveland is 20-51 ATS when they gain five or less net passing yards an attempt.

The Browns have had better than two weeks to get ready for this game and the only news out of Cleveland is turmoil. Eric Mangini’s players think he’s more Atilla the Hun than their football coach. Internet reports of extremely long practices and Mangini being too heavy handed, has talk of Mutiny on Lake Erie. Mangini is looking more like some of the evil characters on the “Sopranos”, of which he made a guest appearance back when everything was much rosier as coach of the Jets.

The Browns are looking to snap a six-game losing streak vs. divisional foes, but they are 2-1 ATS in that scenario thus far. The Cleveland fans think there team is playing like dogs and have started calling the team “Egypt”, because they leave a pyramid after each game. (Thanks, Rodney)

DiamondSportsbook.com has Baltimore as 11-point favorites with total of 39. The Ravens are presumed to win and Monday night road teams as chalk of nine or more are 11-5 ATS in most recent outings. The favorite has been the way to go in Cleveland’s post-bye week games, 7-1 ATS in last eight contests. However, the Ravens have struggled in Cleveland of late, going just 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in five previous visits. Baltimore (4-4, 5-3 ATS) has lost four of last five, nevertheless is 15-7-1 ATS after losing as a favorite, which happened in Cincinnati last week.

The Cleveland Browns wives joined a bridge club, they jump off next Tuesday.

Baltimore covers if they change it up a bit. Cleveland is expected to make lots of miscues, thus go no-huddle and take the game to them. Most bad teams only need a reason to quit playing, give them one by having Joe Flacco flinging the ball around and opening up the field for Ray Rice. This is the perfect opponent to blitz like mad-men since Browns receivers are useless in creating separation. In truth, the Ravens just have to play Baltimore football, which should be good enough.

Cleveland covers if Brady Quinn can lead the Browns offense to early scores. Cleveland is devoid of any real game-breakers, thus must move the chains and be mistake-free, something they have been unable to do. Quinn needs to be accurate with his throws, since the Baltimore corners are nothing special. Hopefully the Browns coaching staff added Wildcat to their offense with the time off, giving their one true playmaker Cribbs a chance to at least try and make something happen. If the Brownies were playing attention on Sunday, a number of bad teams gave great effort and either almost won or did win against better teams by playing loose, with nothing to lose, why not do the same.

Monday Night System – Play Against home team off a bye hosting a division foe. (11-2 ATS, L16Y)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.