Saints look to go heavenly 14-0

The Saints look to stay perfect when they host the Cowboys in a special Saturday night NFL Network contest. New Orleans has just Dallas, Tampa, and Carolina standing in the way of a 16-0 season, and although being the NFC representative for the Super Bowl is foremost on the coaches and players minds, Sean Payton and his team at least outwardly is embracing the idea of seeking perfection.

New Orleans (13-0, 8-5 ATS) will look to do what they do best, score points. The Saints score NFL-best 35.8 points per game and they have done so against teams allowing 23 PPG. They are still within striking distance of setting the all-time record for points at 36.8, set by the New England Patriots in 2007. New Orleans is 24-4 ATS when they have scored 30 or more points under coach Payton.

The Saints are 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS at home, scoring 36.7 PPG. After years of being one of the most melancholy home franchises in the NFL, New Orleans is 11-2 and 10-3 ATS at the Superdome the last two years.

For this contest and the remaining other two, coach Payton would probably like to get more balanced offensively, as they have thrown 90 times compared to 50 rush attempts in last two outings.

Drew Brees is the NFL's top-rated passer, and he leads the league with 32 touchdown passes. Brees can go to four different receivers, all with big play ability and can hand the ball off to three distinct running backs that each have a style and unique way to be productive. Off last week’s win at Atlanta, the Saints are 10-2 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the last two seasons.

The sports bettor has to make a decision in the contest, spunk or funk? The Saints have come from behind several times in the second half to win games and Dallas is a December punching bag. After losing to San Diego at home, any talk of Dallas players saying December is just another month is like saying the Cowboys are unbeaten in June.

Dallas last month woes have gotten to them mentally. Though they still have two division games left on the docket, in a lot of ways, this is the swing game. Win at New Orleans and the Cowboys feel like Tiger Woods finding out Elin wants him back without a new pre-nup. Another loss sinks Dallas further into the December abyss and suddenly they have gone from looking like division champions to the Denver Broncos of last season. The Boys are 10-22 ATS in road games off a non-conference clash and as widely reported, 1-9 ATS in December games over the last three seasons.

It would seem logical for the Cowboys to lean on their ground attack, even after it combined for just 153 yards over the last two weeks, because the Saints have struggled against the run and rank near the bottom of the NFL in rushing touchdowns allowed (15). Doing so, however, still doesn’t guarantee that Drew Brees won’t find a way to drop at least four touchdowns on the board, because he can move the offense upfield faster than any quarterback in the league. Throw in Tony Romo’s history of poor play in December—he has a 16-to-19 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 15 final month games and Jerry Jones club at 10-22 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards a game looks about right.

Bookmaker.com has the Saints as 7.5-point favorites with total of 53.5. The New Orleans defense has been picked on and despite incredible offensive numbers; they are just 2-5 ATS in last seven games. The Saints are 8-1 OVER against conference opponents over the last two seasons. Dallas is going to have to generate a pass rush without DeMarcus Ware and they are 9-1 ATS after being burned for 250 or more yards thru the air. The Cowboys are 9-4 OVER as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points.

Keys to follow are the beginning of the game. Most of the Saints covers have been with fast starts and with raucous crowd, the Cowboys “want to” will be tested early. Wade Phillips will need big game from his offensive and defensive lines to control the game and Romo can’t revert to old ways of chucking the pigskin up for grabs against opportunistic defense.

With Dallas expected to blitz, the Saints immensely effective screen game applies. One aspect in the Cowboys recent losses, Miles Austin has been a non-factor, giving them no long threat.

At the end of this contest, the question will be – Who dat?

3DW Line – New Orleans by 10.5

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

Making it a December to remember

Somebody in this country has been less affected by the recession, as Lexus is still trotting out those car commercials encouraging those that have the financial means to stay above the mayhem and fork over the cash for a luxury car. While that might be out of most working stiffs price range, we as NFL sports bettors can still at least add to the nest egg when it comes down to the last three weeks of the NFL season. (Used the picture of Detroit since they fit two systems listed in this article this week)

One of the realities every sports bettor must face at the end of another season is the dreaded “this team has to win”. In wagering talk, if ever there was a situation set up for a person to be – trapped - it is following that line of thinking.

There is no doubt teams have to win to make the playoffs, however many characteristics can prevent them from doing so. Among them is pressure, not playing well at the end of the season, injuries or a care-free opponent who has nothing to lose. All of these end up being reasons for failure instead of success.

Instead of looking at situations that appear to be favorable, go instead with ones that are. December is a cold, cruel month, (as many of you in the northern part of the United States recently felt), yet there are circumstances that will warm your heart and heat up your wagering account with a little work and determination.

In December, Play On a home underdog when both teams scored 10 or fewer points in previous contest.

Reason: With each team off a less than satisfactory offense performance, the home team has the added benefit of playing before the home fans. The oddsmakers are also telling us the visiting team is the better club, thus we have a motivated team at home off a lousy offensive performance. (13-5 ATS L23Y)

In December, Play Against a home favorite of three or less when both teams are coming off a loss.

Reason: By now all the teams fighting for the playoffs are established. Any team working to play in the postseason would at least warrant a standard NFL home field advantage of three points. If not, the oddsmaker is suggesting the home team is not worthy of supporting the conventional figure associated with home teams and is likely beatable. Seems like a good spot to take the points and consider the money line on the visitor. (41-13-1 ATS L18Y)

In December, Play On a home team off a SU home win if they have at least one extra day of rest.

Reason: At this time of year, every player that has played a full campaign is beat-up and has lots of aches and pains. Being able to play consecutive home games is a real value and any additional rest vs. opponent that is also weary and having to travel is a substantial edge. (22-10-1 ATS L19Y)

In December, Play Against any away favorite that scored 28 or more points in last outing.

Reason: Following the logic here, the public tends to follow the results of the previous game instead of looking at a body of work and more specifically the last three or four games teams have played. Unless a team is an offensive juggernaut, scoring four or more touchdowns is a good day at the office. Place this team in the role of road chalk off a solid scoring game, especially if that is six or more points better than their season average and we have the numbers in our favor. (55-30 ATS L11Y and 15-6 ATS the last three years)

In the final four weeks of the season, play on a non-conference home team that won outright as an away underdog.

Reason: All victories accumulated at the end of the season are earned, especially on the road. Winning in the visiting uniforms is a real boost for the home team coming into next contest. The road team circumstances could be varied. Winning or losing a non-conference game may not affect standings, especially if they have a division game or two left on the schedule. Another factor is unfamiliarity, as these teams are meeting every four years and if the visiting squad has division encounter on tap, can the bettor be assured of top effort, unlikely. (38-16 ATS, L20Y)

Play On a non-conference home favorite off a division win of 14 or more points, in the last month of the season.

Reason: Similar to last situation, this system is about putting in a satisfying performance and building momentum. The home team did a number on division foe and non-conference games tend to be looser because teams not knowing opponents’ tendencies as much, due to not playing them as frequently. Backing the home favorite in this spot has been a sound investment. (12-4, ATS L15Y)

Play Against a double digit road favorite facing a division rival in the last four weeks of the season.

Reason: No matter the disparity in talent, beating a division companion by 10 or more points on the road is difficult any time of the year. This is further enhanced since the oddsmakers are telling us the road team is likely in the playoff hunt and the home team is not. For the home underdog, this might be the last game on the schedule to really get fired up about and they will have the support of those in attendance and can take pride in potentially damaging their rival’s postseason plans. Pittsburgh and New Orleans were both victims in Week 14. (16-5-1 ATS L11Y)

Play On a non-division home underdog if they allowed 175 or more yards rushing in previous game in the last month of the year.

Reason: All coaches try and stay away from placing more emphasis on one game more than another, since the players understand the state of affairs they are dealing with. The head coach and the defensive coordinator are going to be scathing in their comments in the film room about their defense that was pushed around, seemingly from lack of effort and execution in last outing. After listening all week to coaches complain about performing with a sense of urgency, the reportedly inferior home dog plays at or beyond capabilities versus foe not used to facing them. (29-13 ATS, L20Y)

Play On a division home underdog off a home loss in the last four weeks of the season.

Reason: With teams playing just six division games a season, it’s not hard to be motivated for a rivalry conflict, particularly if the public perception is the home squad is the lesser team and needs points to cover a spread. This position is further enhanced off a disappointing home loss that left a bad taste in the team’s collective mouths. A win over division partner is great mouthwash late in the year. Cleveland and Atlanta both covered this past week. (16-5 ATS, L20Y)

Back for Thursday

After Monday’s poor showing, we came back Tuesday with 3-0 day and look to keep building on that occurrence. No great systems today (80 percent or higher), nonetheless one that is very solid in college hoops at 76 percent. The Top Trend looks in on an ACC team tonight. Good Luck

What I thought today – Really sad about Chris Henry. He was always in trouble for one thing or another from his days at West Virginia and it turns out to be just another tragic story.

I keep hearing sports bettors are pounding the Colts, however in the circles I’m traveling everyone is on Jacksonville. Interesting to note several sportsbooks do not want to let go of Indy at -3 and I’m seeing and hearing -125 or -130 on them, which tells me they don’t want Jacksonville at +3.5.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against a home team like Troy, who is an offensive team scoring 76 or more points a game, against a defensive team allowing 63-67 PPG, after allowing 90 points or more. Over the last five years this system is 38-12 ATS.

Free Basketball Trend-2) N.C. State is 12-3 ATS after playing a game as favorite over the last two seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Slick Rick like many so-called sharp bettors has Jacksonville tonight.

Do yourself a favor for the Bowl Season, order this guide, you will thank me.

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Unbeaten Indy looks to tame Jaguars

Week 15 of the NFL season begins with a divisional rivalry and arguably some very bizarre circumstances. The Indianapolis Colts are one of two undefeated teams still walking around the NFL and they have been known to shut it down, at least partially, once their playoff determination has been made. Jacksonville is fighting to make playoffs in the AFC, despite being outscored by 52 points per game.

The Setup

The game is critical on several fronts, as Indy has clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs, but doesn’t want to lose momentum while trying to get healthier, while the Jaguars look to keep pace in the wildcard hunt. These teams have played a very competitive series of late, and in fact, with the Colts’ tight 14-12 win in the season opener, the visitor is on a five-game ATS winning streak. Jacksonville boasts a 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS mark versus AFC South foes, but is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight home finales. Indy is a perfect 6-0 SU & ATS on the road in ’09, outscoring opponents 30.5-15.0 on average.

Why Watch

In wagering circles, this game created a reported firestorm of activity. Most wagering outlets opened this matchup with Indianapolis at -5 and word spread late Sunday into early Monday that the Colts were going to rest many of their star players and walking wounded on a short week. Though not officially confirmed or acknowledged, there were internet reports of huge amounts of money wagered on Jacksonville taking the line on the Jags either to pick or slightly favored.

Colts head coach Jim Caldwell came out Monday and stated that his team won’t willingly “try not to win” and “those that are healthy enough to play, will on Thursday night and the rest of the (regular) season”. This seemed to have calmed the situation and Indianapolis is listed as field goal favorite.

As of Tuesday, Indianapolis had 29 players listed on their injury report, including such notables as Joseph Addai, offensive tackles Ryan Diem and Tony Ugoh and defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. Jacksonville is far from 100 percent healthy and the status of cornerback Rashean Mathis, defensive tackle John Henderson and receiver Mike Sims-Walker remains questionable.

Coaches and players can talk about getting ready for the playoffs, but once the game starts and the player is dressed, the juices are flowing and they want to compete. Some Colts players may not play the whole game, however their mission at least internally is to build enough of a lead, they can come out and let the reserves finish off the win.

Another reason to check this game out is a rare scene; all the seats will be full in Jacksonville Municipal Stadium with this contest an unusual sellout in northern Florida. That only helps the Jaguars be that much more ready for a must win game to keep postseason hopes alive.

Why Wager

Colts backers know how good they’ve been on the road, and though this isn’t a big rivalry for Indianapolis, they have always handled like a big brother-little brother situation and wanted to keep Jacksonville from feeling too good about themselves. Indy is 21-7 ATS after two consecutive covers as a favorite the last 17 years and is 13-3 ATS on the road after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games.

The truth is Jacksonville is ordinary at best, but is one of four teams that are 7-6, fighting for that last playoff slot. The Jaguars are 10-4 ATS the last 14 times they have been a home underdog, which in part helps soothe their recent 3-12 ATS mark at home. Coach Jack Del Rio’s defense is wafer thin with all the injuries and was pushed around last week by Miami (352 yards) and they are 4-12 ATS after surrendering 350 or more yards.

Streak players have to love the UNDER is 8-0 on Thursday nights this season.

The Line

Bookmaker.com has the Colts by 3 with total lowered to 42.

What Happens

Indianapolis will look for fast start similar to what they did in 2007, when they jumped the Jaguars early on the way to a super easy 29-7 win as three-point favorites. That means Peyton Manning attacking soft corners and going for the throat in the red zone. After early season struggles in the red zone, the Colts have scored 17 touchdowns in last 23 tries inside the opponents’ 20-yard line. On defense, bottle Maurice Jones-Drew and make David Garrard beat you thru air.

Evidently Garrard missed the meeting on ball security, as he continues to put the pigskin on the ground when pressured. Coach Del Rio has to coach up the offensive line to pound away at injury-plagued Indianapolis defense. This gives Jacksonville best chance to pull upset and opens up play-action passing game. Defensively, force Manning to hit checkdowns. This strategy makes the Colts be more patient and forces them to drive the length of the field instead of hitting killer big plays, which the Jags lack the offensive firepower to recover from.

The Outcome

3DW ratings picks Indianapolis by 11


Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

TNT Thursday NBA tilts

The Miami Heat hasn’t won back to back games twice in over five weeks and they will attempt to do so at home against their in-state and division rival Orlando. Miami has played nine games without consecutive victories and prior to that, their longest streak was three in a row from Nov. 4-10. Heat backers have seen enough losing bets they could hang all the “L’s” on a Christmas tree as ornaments and fill it up with 5-11 ATS mark in last 16 games.

Miami (12-11, 11-12 ATS) needs more scoring options besides Dwayne Wade and Michael Beasley is the person who has to elevate his game. Beasley was the No. 2 pick of the 2008 NBA draft yet finished seventh in the rookie of the year voting first season. Beasley has scored at least 20 points seven times this season and Miami is 4-3 when he does.

“I think it’s been long enough for me playing average,” Beasley said. “I’m just kind of mad at myself for not stepping out of the box. I’m kind of angry right now.”

The Heat tumbled Toronto 115-95 on Tuesday but is just 15-29 ATS off a home win over the last three seasons.

Orlando (19-6, 14-10-1 ATS) throttled the very same Raptors last evening 118-99, as Dwight Howard was close to a triple-double with 18 points, 14 rebounds and eight blocked shots.
“He’s a monster,” reserve forward Matt Barnes, told the NBA’s official Web site. “He gives the other players a chance to really get into their opponent, knowing if we get beat he has our back.”
The Magic will come into this contest 20-8 ATS on the road playing back-to-back days since 2007.

Bookmaker.com has Orlando as four-point road favorites, with a total of 201. The Magic lost a controversial 99-98 decision back on Nov.25 to Miami, where Orlando thought the game-winning basket was goaltending. The Magic are 23-9 ATS revenging a home loss.

According to the oddsmakers total, the pace of the game should suit the Heat, as they have 27-10 ATS home record when the total is between 200 and 204.5 points and they are 9-1 OVER after losing two of their last three games this season. Orlando has averaged 109.5 points per game in last four outings and is 17-5 UNDER after scoring 100 points or more four straight games.

After this contest, the scene shifts to the Northwest where Portland (15-11, 13-13 ATS) hosts Phoenix (17-8, 14-10-1 ATS). The Blazers have enough personnel injured to fill a ward at a hospital, with six players having missed 95-88 win over Sacramento. The most noticeable absence is Greg Oden, lost again for the season; however Portland has gotten used to playing without him. Even the coach missed time, as Nate McMillan is expected to be on the bench for a second straight time after missing four previous contests following surgery for a ruptured Achilles’ tendon. The Trailblazers are 32-15 ATS in home games after a game where they covered the spread over the last three seasons.

For Phoenix, this marks the end of a voodoo schedule the NBA handed them to start the year. The Suns have played a league-low nine home games and will have four straight and 10 of 12 at US Airways Center after tonight. Before then Phoenix will try to break December road slump, as they are 0-5 this month, at least having covered the last two games.

“We’ve been playing well at home (9-0, 5-3-1 ATS) and after this Portland game we’ll be home for a while and it would be nice to get a good road win against a good team,” forward Grant Hill said. “We’ve got a good opportunity (Thursday) night.”

The Suns top scoring offense (108.7 points per game) has flamed out in recent road assignments, not breaking the century mark in four consecutive tries.

Phoenix has a rather peculiar trend going tonight. In their last win over San Antonio, they only sunk seven of 13 free throws and they are 12-3 ATS after a game where they made 60 percent or worse from the charity stripe.

Portland is two-point pick according to oddsmakers with total of 201. At first glance, the total would seem to be a negative for Phoenix being this low, yet they are 27-18 ATS on the road when the total is between 200 and 204.5 points. Those setting the numbers also have a beat on Suns defense, since they are 9-1 UNDER after allowing 100 points or more three straight games this season.The Blazers almost always are tough to beat at the Rose Garden and they can contain excellent deep shooting teams like the Suns, since they are 14-4 ATS in home games versus good 3-point shooting clubs making 36 percent or more of their attempts. Portland is 32-13 UNDER when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last three years.

Both of these conflicts are on TNT with the first game starting just after 8 Eastern.

Cowboys try to lasso Stanford on the road

Oklahoma State’s first true road game of the season was a complete disaster at in-state rival Tulsa, losing 86-65 and they will look to give a much better performance in Big12/Pac-10 Hardwood Series. In the Cowboys loss, they were held back when guard James Anderson was limited to 10 points. Despite having three players 6’10 or taller on the roster, coach Travis Ford doesn’t have enough players that can handle the post effectively.

In that contest, the Cowboys shot a season low 39.4 percent and will have to be more careful in shot selection. On the year, Oklahoma State (8-1, 2-1-1 ATS) is converting 46.5 percent from the field and they are 8-1 ATS when they make 47 to 53 percent of their shots.

Coach Johnny Dawkins second season at Stanford (5-3, 3-2-1 ATS) figures to be rockier than his first. Last year’s 20-win campaign was fueled by schedule that was softer than marshmallows. This year’s slate has been more foreboding, as the three losses explain.

This doesn’t suggest Dawkins team is talentless, as 6’7 senior Landry Fields is a keeper and Jeremy Green has added scoring punch from the backcourt. Dawkins have been willing to go small, to add quickness and being able to play his preferred style of 94-feet. This forces 6’8 sophomore transfer Andrew Zimmerman to get with the program or take a seat. The Cardinal is 12-4 ATS at Maple Pavilion the last two seasons.

Oklahoma States snuffed out Arkansas-Pine Bluff 81-66 in last contest and is 10-2-1 ATS off a SU victory. DiamondSportsbook.com has the Cowboys as 1.5-point underdogs, with a total of 146. This situation has not been the best fit for Okie State who is a mere 4-10-1 ATS as a road dog.

Since losing to highly ranked Kentucky 73-65 as 10-point underdogs, Stanford has won its last two games handily over Portland State (83-64) and Cal-Davis (85-69) and is 12-4 ATS in non-conference games over the last two years. The Cardinal was a 19.5-point chalk over the Cal-Davis and is 6-0 ATS at home after failing to cover last outing.

This non-conference clash is on FSN at 11 Eastern with Stanford 13-3 OVER as a home favorite of three points or less or pick and Oklahoma State 11-2 UNDER after four straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers.

NBA boss rethinking sports betting stance

David Stern is the boss of the NBA and like many sports czars, has taken a hard line on sporting wagering on team sports. He was particularly affronted by former referee Tim Donaghy revelations of betting on games he worked, which was in strict violation of the rules of conduct in the league.

At that point, print and television commentators coast to coast suggested the NBA was about to go the way of the Arena Football League, because its public trust had been comprised. And while many wondered what would happen to the NBA, something unexpected occurred that Stern’s minions and most other supposed “know it all’s” didn’t see coming, nothing.

All the presumed outrage, people thinking the NBA was going to become the WWE with predetermined winners (enough people believed that already), however once they started playing basketball, it was business as usual and television ratings have gone up, with attendance hurt by the recession, not by wagering allegations.

Stern recently sat down with Sports Illustrated’s Ian Thomsen and betting on the NBA was brought up during the interview.

During this conversation, it was clear Stern has changed his views on people betting on the NBA for a variety of reasons.

With many country’s worldwide accepting wagers on team or individual sports, Stern was asked about potential for scandals.

"We used [the Donaghy revelations] as an opportunity to get better, to coordinate with law enforcement and go through a variety of processes that I don't necessarily want to detail publicly, but you are on ready alert," he said. "And we're mindful of what can happen, because we're more-than-interested bystanders in the European football scandal. Two-hundred [soccer] games are being looked at by law enforcement across the continent. It's fascinating to see what's happening. And we're mindful of the cricket [2007 World Cup match-fixing] issues, of the football referees in Germany -- there's a lot going on."

He then spoke as someone with a greater understanding of the marketplace and where our country is in general. "The betting issues are actually going to become more intense as states in the U.S. and governments in the world decide that the answers to all of their monetary shortfalls are the tax that is gambling."

While Stern stopped short of saying he would approve of such activity openly at this time, when asked if it were in the best interests of the league to seek legalization of sports wagering in the NBA, Thomsen observed a shift in body language of someone who was going to make a point that could later be used against him, but believed his own words.

"It has been a matter of league policy to answer that question, 'No,' " he said."But I think that that league policy was formulated at a time when gambling was far less widespread -- even legally."

In looking at the landscape, where most states have lotteries, Indian casinos and Delaware presently above revenue expectations just allowing NFL parlays, Stern has absorbed all this information and reformulated his thought process. “Considering the fact that so many state governments -- probably between 40 and 50 -- don't consider it immoral, I don't think that anyone [else] should," Stern went on. "It may be a little immoral, because it really is a tax on the poor, the lotteries. But having said that, it's now a matter of national policy: Gambling is good.

"So we have morphed considerably in our corporate view where we say, Look, Las Vegas is not evil. Las Vegas is a vacation and destination resort, and they have sports gambling and, in fact, there's a federal statute that gives them a monopoly of types [on sports betting]. And we actually supported that statute back in '92."

While Stern has often been considered stubborn and bullish, the whole Donaghy experience has brought out a different side of Stern, one more enlightened and not as close-minded in his beliefs. He sees the popularity of the NFL and has widely varied figures on something related to his sport, basketball, with March Madness, which fills Vegas hotels annually for the opening weekend, and also seemingly everyone filling out a pool sheets and making a bet amongst friends. He understands the revenue potential.

“Gambling, however it may have moved closer to the line [of becoming acceptable], is still viewed on the threat side," he said. "Although we understand fully why, buried within that threat there may be a huge opportunity as well."Of course Stern will have opposition, but will also have those on side like the Maloof brothers who own the Sacramento Kings and the Palms Hotel and Casino just off the Vegas Strip.

Originally when the Palms was opened, they were allowed to have a sportsbook, but not able to take action on NBA games. The Maloof’s later stated their case after the city hosted the NBA All-Star game, wanting to take wagering action on all NBA games, except those involving the Kings and it was approved.

Stern’s latest comments were music the Sacramento owners’ ears.

“I’m thrilled to hear him say that,” Joe Maloof told Yahoo! Sports on Monday. “I think it does two things: First, it legitimizes gambling. It regulates it. That’s the most important thing. It’s clean. It’s honest. It’s fair.

“And then it creates a tremendous excitement for your product. People react differently when they have a bet on a game versus when they don’t. This is going to bring in great interest. If it’s regulated properly, this can be a tremendous revenue source for the league.”

Nationally, there is too much opposition from groups that want a sanitized world more reminiscent of the 1950’s and early 60’s. However, as individual states look to hang on to government programs and continue to see shortfalls, sports gambling will eventually be pursued more actively as another revenue source that will be taxed and monitored and be enjoyed more openly, as sports leagues like the NBA admit the world won’t end if people bet on sports.


Separate articles from Sports Illustrated.com and Yahoo.com provided the quotes for this piece.

Fingers crossed for terrific Tuesday

We got blitzed but good yesterday with 0-3 record and will to turn that right around today. We have three hoops plays to show, first Slick Rick’s Free Best Bet. The Best System is a rare first half play in the NBA and it makes a lot of sense, with low risk, points wise. In college basketball, a Top Trend of note at 16-2 ATS. Good Luck

What I learned yesterday – Sometimes even the best information can be incorrect. I had a friend call me (connected with several Cards players) and tell me Arizona can’t wait to take the field against the Niners Monday. They want so badly to beat this team they can taste it. I didn’t make a huge wager, just my typical that matches a 2* play. As it turns out, the Cardinals were too amped to play (three off-sides defensive penalties on first drive) and since they felt so good about what they were about to do, they lost their confidence in a blizzard of mistakes and turnovers. I was OK with losing, since I trusted the info; the team just didn’t come through.

I wish I could accurately describe this, but a few people that know me understand, since I’ve explained. Once I saw Kurt Warner on the sidelines before the game Monday, I knew I was in trouble. He’s got this look, kind of a wide-eyed, pissed out blank look. For whatever reason, I noticed it several years ago since he’s been in Arizona and he always plays his worst games with that look.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) PLAY ON home favorites like Phoenix vs. the first half line, scoring 103 or more points a game on the season against opponent after leading their last three games by 5 or more points at the half. This system is 30-6 ATS, 83.3 percent since 1996 and since the Suns are currently a two point favorite for the game, they just have to lead at halftime.

Free Basketball Trend-2) Louisiana Tech is 16-2 ATS playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Slick Rick is 5-0 in the NBA the last two days and likes Charlotte to nail the Knicks. (I’m leaning towards New York, though no money on my part)

Do yourself a favor for the Bowl Season, order this guide, you will thank me.

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Looking Ahead in the Rearview Mirror in the NFL

If you played Jacksonville or Kansas City this past Sunday, your nerve-endings were tingling, only to be slapped upside the head late in the game. The Jaguars came into their game against Miami well-positioned at 7-5 to take an AFC playoff berth despite being outscored on the season. Midway thru the second quarter it was apparent, the Dolphins had everything Jacksonville did not. A better running game, solid quarterback play, a stronger defense and more crowd support despite being on the road.

The one thing Miami didn’t have after building 14-0 lead, was ability to put the Jaguars away. Jacksonville, despite being thoroughly outplayed (Fins 22-10 edge in first downs and 137 more yards of offense), were in position to cover the 2 or 2.5-points after a first down on their own 49-yard line with under three minutes to play. The Jaguars had no success running the ball all day (3.8 yards per carry), especially up the middle. On a fourth down and three, to keep the drive alive on the Miami 44, the Jacksonville offensive coordinator calls a David Garrard quarterback draw. Those that had the Dolphins with the points had to be laughing hysterically about one of the most foolish offensive calls all season given the circumstances. Did we at 3Daily Winners miss something in not rolling out Garrard to the right, with a three passing options at 5, 10, and 15 yards? No, let’s run the quarterback draw for a four yard loss.

Thanks to Matt Cassel’s four interceptions (not all his fault) Kansas City could not overcome a bumbling Buffalo team that led 16-10, despite Ryan Fitzpatrick’s gargantuan 86 yards of passing. The Chiefs had one final outstanding opportunity to win the game outright as underdogs in the latter stages of fourth quarter and it underscored the value of talent. On third and ten at the Bills 21, Cassel threw a perfect pass to Chris Chambers at the five yard line, right in his belly, with nobody within three yards of him and he dropped it.

While there is no way to know if Kansas City would have scored a touchdown from there, it brought up another point. San Diego released Chambers earlier this season, as they felt he was no longer able to play for a team that still entertained a deep playoff run. The Chiefs picked Chambers up and he immediately became a big part of the coach Todd Haley’s pass offense.

While Chambers has proved he still has NFL ability, he no longer is coveted by championship-type teams. He’s an adequate fill-in for a team lacking in receivers. Though the top receivers in the game fail now and again, Chambers drop likely was the game and illustrated why the Chefs (intentional) are 3-10 and 5-8 ATS.

This whole Dallas dumping in December is a fact, no matter what coaches, players and a certain owner believes. Since 1996, they are 18-33 SU and they have lost 10 of last 15 in the final month of the year. After all these years, it’s not just bad luck or misfortune; it’s a pattern of behavior.

Do you want to know the problem with the Cowboys, they are front-runners. Much like a horse that races out to early lead, Dallas does the same thing year after year and sports bettors turn into lemmings following “America’s Team”. As opposed to a horse that just tires out, Dallas lacks the mental and intestinal fortitude to tough things out. The last two weeks were examples of the Cowboys not losing to better teams, rather to squads better prepared and with greater desire.

How do measure desire, this way. With San Diego leading 13-10 and 9:13 to go in the game, the Chargers had rushed for 41 net yards to that point. From that point forward, the Bolts ran off over seven minutes off the clock and added 32 rushing yards to their total. The San Diego offensive line, LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles wanted the game just a little more than the Cowboys did at that critical juncture and they took it. It’s not a coincidence the Chargers have won 16 consecutive games in December. Dallas doesn’t have the players that can raise their level of play at crunch time, period, making sportsbooks loads of cash with the public backing the ‘Boys.

Betting points – The Bengals streak of games with the underdog covering (12-0 ATS) this season, ended with curious non-effort in Minnesota. You have to wonder if something is wrong with Carson Palmer, as he threw just 25 times for 94 yards, despite his team trailing by 16 or more points most of the second half. Very much a play against team with four consecutive spread losses.

A quick way to rebuild a wagering account is follow the Oakland Raiders off a victory. With the Washington 34-13 wipeout, since their 2002 Super Bowl season, Da Raiders are 6-20 and 9-17 ATS after posting a W, including 0-4 SU and ATS in 2009.

There is still time to fix it, but New Orleans is losing focus late in the year on a balanced offense. All season coach Sean Payton has mixed the run and pass to near perfection, yet in the last two weeks, both spread defeats, the Saints have thrown 90 times compared to 50 runs. Coach Payton needs to lean more on the running game or a surprise early postseason ouster could be in New Orleans future even if they manage 16-0 regular season.

The AFC has clinched at least a tie in not losing to the NFC in inter-conference play for the 14th straight year. The AFC leads 32-23 and needs just one win in last nine games to take season record to 11-0-3 since 1996. For NFL bettors, it has made little difference with the record 27-27-1 ATS this year.

Only 11 days till Christmas

Could Bengals and Cowboys have played any worse? Their efforts (?) caused us a 1-2 day sorry to say. We have a couple of good systems going today; check what you like from today’s articles. We have a prefect trend in the NFL today in game write-up, thus thought we’d add a Top pucks Trend. Sal is having success and offers his best NBA tonight. Good Luck

What I thought today – As of Friday I really the Arizona Cardinals at -3, however the line moving in their direction and a system I discovered that favors the Niners, now I’m on the fence and may have to pass.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Systems -1) The Orlando system which is listed below is very good as is the Monday night one in football.

Free Hockey Trend-2) The Philadelphia Flyers are 2-11 when playing six or more games in 10 days over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Sal is on 10-3 run in the NBA and is playing Dallas this evening.

Paul Buck’s Monday Night Magic- Guaranteed

Do yourself a favor for the Bowl Season, order this guide, you will thank me.

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Your Monday NBA Systems

One of the bigger NBA cards to start another work week finds a number of very good situations on the side or total of action. Take a gander at each one and find something to your liking and don’t worry about Denver not being in this group. The Nuggets and Thunder didn’t muster a mention for this article.

Indiana at Orlando (-12.5, 211)

The Magic return home from a mediocre road trip that produced 2-2 record and 1-2-1 ATS mark. It could have been viewed as a positive except they lost the last two games at Utah and Orlando. The Magic are big favorites over Indiana tonight and though the number appears cumbersome, they have a definite edge. - Home teams shooting 45.5-47.5 percent and are average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game), taking on an average defensive club like the Pacers (43.5-45.5%), who don’t rebound well (-3 to -5.5 reb/game), are 27-4 ATS the last five years.

Golden State at Philadelphia (-4, 209)

Here is some real top-notch handicapping information, if you have lost 13 straight games, you either have a really pathetic offense or you couldn’t cover a bed with a sheet. Philadelphia is 27th in field goal percentage defense; however they’ve met their match in Golden State, who is last in the same category. Look to play OVER in December on teams that have lost 10 or more contests. (30-10 since 1996)

Boston at Memphis (+7.5, 194.5)

The Celtics are a scintillating 11-1 on the road this season with seven covers, averaging 100.4 points per game overall. On Saturday, Boston crushed Chicago 106-80 and travel to Memphis, who has won four of five, yet ranks 25th in points allowed. Consider the total, as teams like Boston, scoring between 98-102 points a game, facing a crummy defensive team allowing 102 or more points a contest and conceded 85 points or less in last outing, are 29-6 OVER when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points. For good measure these two clubs are 10-3 OVER in Memphis.

New Orleans at Dallas (-8, 194.5)

It has not been much fun in New Orleans, at least on the NBA side, as the Hornets try to get back to .500. In their last game, they suffered unsettling home loss to New York 113-96 as 6.5-point favorites. New Orleans let the Knicks to shoot over 55 percent while converting just 40 percent themselves. Having last played Friday, look to Play On teams like the Hornets off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite, playing with two days rest. (37-12 ATS since 2005)

Minnesota at Utah (-13, 200.5)

The Timberwolves are disgraceful 3-21, however are better than the Celtics or Lakers against the spread at 12-12 ATS. In Utah this evening, road underdogs of 10 or more points, winning 25 percent or less of their games on the season, in December, are 38-10 ATS the last five years.

Washington at L.A. Clippers (-2, 195.5)

The Wizards embark on a four-game West swing starting in Los Angeles. Washington has lost four in a row, including a hard to swallow 114-113 contest to Indiana two days ago. The Wizards have some potential tonight as road teams being outscored by three or more points, off a loss by six or less, with the line at +3 to -3, are solid 19-7 since 2005.

Arizona looks to fly to division title in San Fran

Arizona makes its second straight primetime appearance when it travels to San Francisco to wrap up the Week 14 slate on Monday night football. The Cardinals advanced to 8-4 after the win over the Vikings, and managed to boost their divisional lead over the 49ers and Seattle to three games with four to go coming into the weekend.

With the number of long winning streaks in the NFL this season, it is easy to lose sight of the fact Arizona (7-4-1 ATS) is a last second loss at Tennessee away from having a five-game winning streak. Kurt Warner came back from concussion last week and was razor sharp in 30-17 win over Minnesota, with his dynamic duo of receivers, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, taking turns sharing the spotlight. Boldin did a lot of damage early and late with seven receptions for 98 yards and two scores, while Fitzgerald was the focus more in the middle quarters, having eight pass catches for 143 yards and a touchdown. The Cardinals are 8-1 ATS vs. a division opponent off a SU win.

"It's a middle-of-the-season game and it doesn't have a lot of bearing in the big picture, but it gives you confidence moving forward to think that we can play with anybody," Warner said about Vikings win. "We can play with the big dogs. The key for us is to show up like that every week."

The Monday matchup for Arizona has significance on a couple of levels. They lost the season opener to San Francisco 20-16 at home as 4.5-point favorites and having the chance to win the NFC West in a revenge situation would certainly be sweet. A victory also gives the Cards franchise consecutive division titles, something that has not happened in 34 years, when they were in St. Louis, playing in the old NFC East. In the past, this has been a miserable spot for Arizona, sporting a 2-13 ATS record in division games off SU underdog win, facing a team below .500.

San Francisco (5-7, 7-3-2 ATS) has played well at home in 2009, with a 4-2 SU and ATS mark, and is now 6-2-1 ATS as hosts under coach Mike Singletary.

San Francisco’s inability to pull out close games—five of its losses are by a combined 19 points—and string more than two wins together all season will go down as the biggest reason its lockers will be empty come the first week of January. It suffered four straight defeats following a promising 3-1 start and has alternated wins and losses over the past four weeks. Last week’s 20-17 loss to Seattle was example of letting and opportunity slip away, as quarterback Alex Smith completed 27 of 45 throws for a career-best 310 yards with two touchdowns. The 49ers are 8-2 ATS off a division loss.

A lot of football remains, however, especially if you’re Smith. The first-overall pick of the 2005 draft has four more games to convince the front office and Mike Singletary’s coaching staff he’s their quarterback for next season and beyond. How well Smith plays against Arizona under the Monday night football spotlight could go a long way in determining his fate.

Elevated to starter midway through Week 7, Smith has played relatively well after missing all of last season with an injury and making just seven starts in 2007. He’s thrown at least two touchdown passes in five outings—something he didn’t do at all in 2007 and accomplished just three times while starting all 16 games in ’06. Part of his success can be traced to a supporting cast that includes rookie first-round wideout Michael Crabtree (32 catches, 406 yards, one touchdown in seven games) and former first-round tight end Vernon Davis (63, 801, 10).

However it has come at a price, as Singletary has abandoned the running game and RB Frank Gore looks completely uncomfortable taking handoffs out of the shotgun. The Niners at least are 5-1-1 ATS after losing outright.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Arizona as 3.5-point road favorites, with total of 45. The Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in last seven road games and 6-2 ATS against teams with losing records. San Francisco has covered 15 of last 20 Monday night appearances; however is 0-4 against the number hosting Arizona. That is part of the reason why the visiting team is perfect 8-0 ATS in this series. The Redbirds are 13-4 UNDER as a road favorite of seven points or less.

Arizona covers if Kurt Warner has as much time to throw as he did last week. The Niners like to play tight coverage, but they can had, especially if they have to cover long distances over time. Keep Warner’s jersey clean and he should be able to fleece San Fran secondary. The Cardinals have the best red zone offense in the NFL when it comes to getting in the end zone, converting 66.6 percent of the time. Keep the pressure on the 49ers to match points. When the defensive line is revved up, they can create pressure. Though Smith sees the field better out of the shotgun, keep him in the pocket and make him throw meaningful strikes for 60 minutes.

San Francisco covers if they remember Gore is a member of the offense. No question Smith is more comfortable away from center and makes better reads. Nonetheless, the Niners have lost offensive identity and are throwing the ball around like Mike Martz is still offensive coordinator. The 49ers need balance in offense to play winning football. San Francisco was dismal 1of 13 in third downs in Seattle and are among the poorer teams in the league in that category. That won’t work against the Cardinals. Make Arizona safeties guard Vernon Davis down the field, since they are not great is deeper pass coverage running with receivers.


Monday Night System – Play Against any team that lost against the spread on the road in prior game versus a team that covered the number at home. (18-6 ATS L12Y)

Steve Makinen of Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

Dialing up a 3-0 Sunday, hopefully

We tracked a 2-0 record yesterday officially and will try and build on that number this Sunday. We have an awesome NFL system in a non-conference game that is 86.3 percent since the turn of the century. Found a prefect trend in the NFL that is certainly odd and Nick will try and keep hot streak going with his Free top choice. Good Luck

What is learned yesterday – Shoppers appear to be out in good numbers, however the number of bags and what is in them is smaller. Last year retailers were panicky and started pounding sales, this year not as much. The cat and mouse game has begun, who gives in first?

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) Play Against a home team if they and their opponent were underdogs of nine or more points last week. This system which dates back to 2000 is 19-3 ATS and the team that fits is Oakland.

Free Football Trend-2) Came across this by accident, the underdog in the Cincinnati Bengals games is perfect 12-0 ATS this year.

Free Football Pick -3) Nick of the LCC is 27-10 in all plays over the eight days and is on Dallas as Top Play.

Do yourself a favor for the Bowl Season, order this guide, you will thank me.

NFL Week 14 Key Games

With a quarter of a season to go, the NFL schedule-makers offer us thought provoking matchups that could send teams down different paths than it looked a few weeks ago. The Cincinnati offense has been languishing, despite adding up victories and figures to have to score at Minnesota. Denver has rebounded with a couple of wins, can they put the brakes on Colts perfect season? The Cowboys final month travails are potentially enhanced with a wicked December slate, now having to face one of the hottest teams in the league from San Diego. Miami and Jacksonville doesn’t generate much buzz outside of the sunshine state, yet both are still in AFC playoff hunt. New England, what is going on? Carolina is about to find out.

Cincinnati at Minnesota 1:00E CBS

Intra-conference division leaders collide in Minnesota, with each hoping to get closer to locking down their titles. The Vikings (7-4-1 ATS) are 10-2 after losing at Arizona. The other loss was of course, at the hands of Cincinnati’s rival, the Steelers. The Bengals (6-6 ATS) are 9-3, embarking on a road trip that features stops at the Metrodome and at San Diego. They will be the underdog in both, which may be a welcomed sign for Marvin Lewis, whose team is a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS in the dog role this season. They are also 3-0 vs. the NFC and have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven overall vs. the opposite conference. Minnesota is 0-6 ATS at home under Brad Childress in the final four weeks of the regular season. The host has been less than cordial in last three meetings between these teams, winning by 17.7 points per game.

Keys to the Game-

Cincinnati has established they can run the ball, ranking sixth at 133.9 yards per game. It is now time to fix the passing game, which has averaged 156.5 yards per game the last month. That might work against the three crummy teams they just played (though they failed to cover each contest), but it won’t cut it come playoff time. No Chris Henry in the slot weakens Bengals passing, however somebody has to take the challenge and Carson Palmer has to be more precise. The Bengals defense has incurred far more injuries than the offense and they keep playing at high level. They will have to on Vikings carpet, first containing Adrian Peterson and then pressuring Brett Favre similar to what Arizona did last week. If not, Cincy falls to 2-10 ATS on the road off a SU non-division victory.

After a slower than expected start, the Minnesota run defense has moved up to second in the NFL. (Behind the Bengals) The front four is going to have to make a few more plays with middle linebacker E.J. Henderson gone for the year. Rookie Jasper Brinkley has to make enough plays to cover up for the loss. The Vikings have to force Cincinnati to throw the ball. Minnesota is 0-7 ATS home off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite and they will add another if they give Peterson only 13 carries like they did last week. The Cardinals did a great job pestering Favre; still Peterson has to have more touches.

3DW Line – Minnesota by 10
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Minnesota -6.5, 43.5

Miami at Jacksonville 1:00E CBS

Though both Miami and Jacksonville play in the AFC, they aren’t exactly rivals, as they meet more in the preseason than they do when it matters. In fact, this will be just the fifth all-time meeting, as each team looks to hang on in the AFC wildcard hunt. The Dolphins (6-6 ATS) are still breathing after upsetting New England, but at 6-6 would need to win out vs. four other fellow contenders to even have a shot. The Jaguars (5-7 ATS) are 7-5, and although their chances are better, their stats (-4.0 PPG margin) and upcoming schedule (Indy, at N.E.) suggest a postseason berth isn’t in their future either. Jacksonville moved to 2-4 ATS in 2009 at home (5-1 SU) after defeating Houston and is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games in a half full stadium. In this series, the Jaguars own a 3-1 SU and ATS edge, having met most recently in 2006 in Miami. Fins now 5-0 SU in December last two years.

Keys to the Game-

Miami offered Jacksonville a new look from last week’s game film, they did not run the Wildcat one time. Ricky Williams is more conventional back, and to coach Tony Sparano’s credit, he’s willing to adjust to need or opponent as Chad Henne checked the pigskin 52 times last week. Being versatile and less predictable is important, but greater point production is needed on the road, where the Dolphins are scoring 17.5 points a game. (28.8 PPG at home) On defense, attack QB David Garrard, who has put the ball on the ground 12 times (eight lost) and seems less confident with collapsing pocket. Miami 8-1 ATS in road games after one or more wins over the last three seasons and has to win fourth quarter like they did against New England, having given up a franchise record 134 points in the last final 15 minutes already.

Like every other opposing team, Miami will try to take away Jaguars run game. Jacksonville must be persistent, since they are 7-1 (5-3 ATS) when they rush 26 or more times and 0-4 SU and ATS when they don’t. Jacksonville has to roll Garrard out, since he is sitting duck in the pocket and create three layers in passing game to give him choices. The Jags are deplorable 1-11 ATS as a favorite since last season and they better be prepared for multiple Miami attack or they will be caught off guard like they were against San Francisco two weeks ago.

3DW Line – Miami by 4
Bookmaker.com Line – Jacksonville -2.5, 43.5

Denver at Indianapolis 1:00E CBS

Indianapolis (12-0, 8-4 ATS) remains unbeaten and is already in the uncomfortable position of wondering whether or not to rest starters in its remaining games. The rest of the AFC is hoping that the Colts don’t, as Denver (8-4 ATS) is in the thick of a wildcard logjam at 8-4. For head coach Jim Caldwell’s team, the Broncos represent the foe on their remaining schedule with the best record, thus potentially the greatest chance for getting knocked off. For the Broncos, this is the first of two tough remaining road games and they are 4-2 SU & ATS away in ’09. These teams have become somewhat regular combatants in recent years, and Indy owns a 6-2 SU and ATS record in the series the previous seven seasons. In the last encounters in Indianapolis, the Colts are 3-0 SU & ATS with an average victory margin a colossal 24.7 PPG.

Keys to the Game-

The Colts are going to bring pressure off the edges and Kyle Orton has to be wise to protect the pigskin and not put the ball up for grabs like last week when he was picked three times. Denver’s offensive tackles have to use outside leverage to push Indianapolis defensive ends outward and be ready for spin moves to the inside. The Broncos are 29-13 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points a game and have to take chances on offense and defense to stay close to San Diego in the AFC West. Denver has done fine work in not allowing the deep ball; however Peyton Manning can pick any defense apart strolling down the field. Defensive backs are going to have to take a few risks.

Indianapolis keeps winning and they are attracting sharp action again thanks to running the ball to balance the offense. Joseph Addai has been running with great authority and not coincidently, the Colts have covered last three contests. Look for Manning to be aggressive early and Indy to try and build quick, forcing Denver out of their game plan, making their ability to get after Orton more effective. The Colts are 20-7 ATS after two consecutive covers as a favorite.

3DWLine – Indianapolis by 14
DiamondSportsbook.com Line –Indianapolis -6.5, 44

Carolina at New England 1:00E FOX

The Patriots (6-6 ATS) have lost three of their last four games to slip to 7-5 on the season, just a game up on both Miami and New York for the AFC East title. New England’s remaining schedule is very manageable, starting with this contest vs. Carolina, so you have to still like their chances. Over the last 4+ seasons, the Pats are just 4-5 ATS hosting NFC foes. They are a perfect 6-0 SU at home this year, having covered four of those games while winning by 18.2 points per game. The Panthers are 5-7 and ATS after beating Tampa Bay, but relegated to the spoiler role the rest of the way, facing teams with a combined winning percentage of 77 percent over the final four weeks. Carolina is 0-3 SU & ATS vs. AFC East foes in this season after a 4-0 ATS non-conference mark a year ago.

Keys to the Game –

Carolina won last week but was outgained by 160 yards by the Bucs. It’s hard to fathom last Sunday’s ultra-conservative approach will work on the road, let alone in New England. The Patriots are ordinary against the pass and if backup Matt Moore is good enough to be on your roster as a professional quarterback, let him act like one and throw the ball down the field. The Panthers have to play the perfect game or be completely out of character. The former hasn’t happened much, so big daring, run Steve Smith out of the wildcat, throw on first down, send seven pass rushers at Tom Brady, anything to give yourself a more unique chance to win. The Cats are 10-1 ATS vs. opponent off consecutive losses, with the last being as a favorite.

Its evident things are out of whack in Billy’s world. Last quarter losses with leads, offense inefficient in the red zone and sending players home being late for meetings, at least where the media picks up on it. It’s been coming and New Orleans perfected it, rush three and double Randy Moss and Wes Welker, forcing Brady to find alternative. This is test for Moss to show how badly he wants to win, fighting to get open and not giving off visibly bad body language. Patriots have to stout in the middle to corral Panthers running game. Force Moore to beat you thru the air. With Carolina’s presumably limited offense, New England is 22-7 ATS when they are outgain their opponents by 100-150 yards.

3DW Line – New England by 12.5
Bookmaker.com Line – New England -13, 43.5

San Diego at Dallas 4:15E CBS

Dallas continues its most difficult stretch of the season when it hosts the Super Chargers (Chris Berman reference). San Diego (6-6 ATS) has won seven straight games to reach 9-3 and has its sights set on a first round bye. Under Norv Turner, this has been the time of the year where the Chargers have played their best football, boasting an 8-2 ATS December mark. They are also 8-1 ATS in the second half of the season vs. good offensive teams gaining 5.65 or more yards per play in his tenure. Dallas (6-6 ATS) averages a lofty 6.7 YPP but finds itself in a tight NFC East race after losing to New York. Since dropping the new stadium opener, the Cowboys have won five straight at home, holding three teams to a TD or less while going 4-1 ATS. They are on a 3-7 ATS slide vs. the AFC, including 2-3 ATS at home.

Keys to the Game-

Dallas averages five yards per carry and San Diego is 21st versus the run. The Chargers are going to have to find a way to stop the terrific trio of Cowboys running backs. Lost in the winning streak is faulty tackling that has permitted foes to gain more yards than they should. Be dogmatic in wrapping up and keep a steady beat on Tony Romo to force miscues. Phillip Rivers offense has nabbed a 7-0 lead in six of the wins during this streak, which has allowed San Diego to set tempo. Do it to Dallas and 25-10 ATS road record vs. the NFC is within reach.

The Cowboys started December in New Jersey playing like they were waiting for something bad to happen and when it did; players in the foreground and background were seen shaking their heads. Championship teams don’t dwell, they move on to next play which is what the Cowboys have to do. San Diego is going to make great plays and force bad plays; it’s how Romo and the defense react to situations that will shape this NFC-AFC matchup. The Chargers have a full arsenal, controlling check-downs or predesigned passes to LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles forces Rivers to look elsewhere.

3DW Line – San Diego by 1
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Dallas -3.5, 48.5

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

Super Duper Saturday

Delighted to be back and have a prefect reverse Top Trend to get things started. Could not find any systems that crawl over the 80 percent mark, thus went with the best one I could find in college basketball for today. Free Play has arrived from Nick. Good Luck

What is going on- For those that arrive here several days a week, you will have noticed the three picks were sparse this week. As what happened about a month ago, additional workload was assigned to me. This time it really cramped my style and I honestly didn’t look at any basketball lines all week except for Thursday about 25 minutes before the first games. I am sorry, but have to pay the bills first; I know you can appreciate that. Anyway, this might go on another week or two, but without question I will try and jump in where possible, however the weekend and football will still be here, as will daily articles. Thanks and keep reading.

Of everything I’ve either heard or read about Tiger Woods, this is the most accurate assessment of the situation based on my knowledge of big time athletes/celebrities that come thru Scottsdale.

I really like to read Pete Fuitak of College Football News but I don’t completely agree with his thoughts on Brian Kelly hired as Notre Dame coach. He said Kelly is a good hire, but Notre dame should have aggressively gone after Urban Meyer and paid him what it took, considering all the circumstances. I know Mr. Fuitak is well connected, but Notre Dame like all colleges today have companies that make contact thru different people to test the waters to find level of interest. I’d heard from people I know closer to the athletic department that Meyer had politely say he wasn’t interested and short of driving a Brink’s truck into Meyer’s driveway, I don’t know what else they could have done.

I believe Kelly was the best hire Notre Dame could make. In retrospect, Bob Davie was an assistant coach before landing South Bend job and hasn’t been in coaching since. Tyrone Willingham was a better person than a head coach and seemed better suited for underdog role as coach instead of top dog. And Charley Weis showed he could recruit skill position players and put together an offense and not much else. Kelly has built three distinct college programs at different levels. He’s not going to be warm and fuzzy, but gives them the best chance to succeed.

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Free Basketball System-1) This won’t be a qualifying play, but one that is noteworthy. Play Against home teams like George Mason where the line is +3 to -3, off a cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between 40-49 percent on the season. Over the last five years this comes in at 52-16 ATS.

Free Basketball Trend-2) The Oregon Ducks are 0-10 ATS versus teams shooting 45 percent or higher with a defense that holds opponents to 42 percent or lower over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Nick of the LCC loaded up on Utah Jazz at -1 in revenge spot against Lakers.

Do yourself a favor for the Bowl Season, order this guide, you will thank me.

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Time to start checking out the College Hoops

With only one contest on the collegiate gridiron Saturday, sports bettor’s interest start to wander more specifically over to the hardwood. This is the first full weekend of televised college basketball and a number of stirring contests are on tap for watching and wagering enjoyment. If you happen to Christmas shopping or lucky enough to get to stay home while somebody else fights the crowds, take the time to get in the mood for college hoops and enjoy.

Saturday, Dec.12

Kentucky at Indiana 12:00E CBS

Coach John Calipari’s club finishes a challenging non-conference slate the last eight days taking on Indiana. Kentucky (9-0, 3-4 ATS) has defeated North Carolina and Connecticut this past week, as his young players get ready for SEC play. Coach Cal has also shown his stern side as head coach, recently reprimanding his most prized pupil John Wall. As you might expect, Wall has only heard people praising his basketball abilities since his youth and seemed genuinely shocked when Calipari expressed his opinion about his play. That sends a very positive message to vets like Patrick Patterson and Perry Stevenson and lets the other talented first year players know who is in charge. Big Blue will have to play defense against Indiana, since they are 2-7 ATS off a spread cover.

The Indiana Hoosiers (4-4 SU & ATS) are more talented than a season ago, however they are far from a finished product for coach Tom Crean. With a squad filled with young players, Indiana fans will have to take the good with the bad. Guard Maurice Creek and Christian Watford have made the steadiest contributions and the coach is thrilled about the effort Verdell Jonnes III is giving, working hard on the glass and transfer Jeremiah Rivers is adding stability in the backcourt. The Hoosiers are 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS vs. Kentucky.

Ohio State at Butler 12:00E ESPN

The Buckeyes (7-1, 6-2 ATS) got the clinching victory over Florida State 77-64 for the Big Ten in their first ever win against the ACC and moves on to face another rugged opponent, this time on the road. Ohio State’s forward Evan Turner has been a force (now injured) and Jon Diebler is emerging from early season shooting slump and burying three’s again. Coach Thad Matta’s club lacks size and 6’8 Dallas Lauderdale is doing his best to be a factor in the post. Despite tremendous start, sophomore William Buford has been lost and he could be important against balanced Butler squad. The Buckeyes are 14-4 ATS after two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.

It’s not that the Bulldogs (6-3, 3-6 ATS) are playing poorly; they just weren’t playing Butler basketball. Coach Brad Stevens team may have played in the top early season tourney in Anaheim, but were sloppy in ball-handling and took far too many poor shoots in finishing with 1-2 record. In the loss against Georgetown, they shot 31.4 percent and had no answers for Hoyas center Greg Monroe. What Butler has to do is get back to basics, making the extra pass for the layup or the wide open three-ball shot. This is another big opportunity for the Bulldogs to regain stature, especially at home, if the knock off Ohio State. Butler is 20-11 ATS in non-conference games under coach Stevens.

LaSalle vs Kansas 2:00E ESPNU

Top ranked Kansas (8-0, 3-2 ATS) has not entered any tournaments the last couple of years, preferring to played selected opponents at home, on the road or at neutral sites. Everyone understood the Jayhawks talent deserved a top ranking; however teams that were supposed to push them don’t give the appearance they will. UCLA offered little resistance and upcoming games against Michigan and California might not provide the competition needed for Kansas before Big 12 play. Swingman Xavier Henry is proving to be the perfect compliment as freshman that could keep Kansas at or near the top of the ranking all season. With its high octane offense (90.4 points per game), the Jayhawks are 13-2 ATS when they score 81 or more points.

Though the crowd will be pro-Kansas in Kansas City, at least it’s not a true home game for the Jayhawks, which has to make LaSalle (6-2,2-3 ATS) feel a bit better. The Explorers do have talented individuals like guard Rodney Green, its top scorer. Kimmani Barrett and Jerrell Williams both have the ability to fill up the basket and freshman big man Aaric Murray will find out how much progress he’s made going up against Cole Aldrich. LaSalle has to maintain poise and if they do, the Explorers could improve on 19-9 ATS record as underdogs of 10 or more.

Georgetown vs Washington 2:00E FSN

This is a solid opening matchup for the John Wooden Classic in Anaheim. Georgetown (7-0, 2-1 ATS) has a trio of players that can matchup with any in the country. With Greg Monroe patrolling the paint, Austin Freeman making things happen from the wing and Chris Wright handling the rock, the Hoyas can ball. Where the view turns to 20-50 vision is when one of the trio has an off-night. Julian Vaughn has the ability to be reliable scorer and rebounder and sophomore Jason Clark has the length and quickness to be lock-down defender. The bench, what bench? G-Town is 11-19 ATS in all lined games over the last two seasons.

Coach Lorenzo Romar’s U-Dub squad is acquiring some good battle scars. Washington (6-1, 1-6 ATS) has been pushed by Wright State, Montana and lost to Texas Tech in OT, while the starters have learned to play together and a feisty bench has added a spark. Leading scorer Quincy Pondexter and Isaiah Thomas are going to be at the forefront, nonetheless junior Venoy Overton and long-range shooting reserve Elston Turner add greater flexibility for team that is 37-20 ATS away from home vs. foe outscoring opponent by eight points or more a game.

Marquette at Wisconsin 5:00E ESPN2

Shhh, quiet, if you listen intently, you can still here a couple dozen Badgers fans partying from the upset win over Duke. As per usual, nothing much was expected from Wisconsin (6-2, 3-3 ATS), however few work the chalkboard better than coach Bo Ryan. Guard Trevon Hughes is the leader of Badger attack and he is complimented by a group of players that don’t make mistakes and play defense that always leads opposing player into anther defender. This conflict is HUGE deal in the Badger State and Wisky is 25-12 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pick.

Marquette (7-2, 3-2 ATS) was supposed to disappear, after losing “triplets” from last season, whom all finished in the Top 10 in scoring in Golden Eagles history. But senior forward Lazar Hayward is having none of that talk. Marquette will have size issues all year, but the amount of quickness will catch more than one unassuming competitor off-guard. Darius Johnson-Odom has a nice upside and swingman Jimmy Butler finds ways to score. Coach Buzz Williams team isn’t going to win the Big East, nevertheless, they will have say. The Golden Eagles are 2-4 SU in Madison, yet have four covers. The UNDER is 6-1 in last seven encounters.

Virginia Tech at Penn State 7:00E ESPN2

No its not another Big Ten/ACC Challenge contest, this was just part of the regular scheduling between these universities. Virginia Tech (7-1, 2-4 ATS) has already claimed one Big Ten victim, Iowa, and seeks another on the road. The Hokies tend to be erratic offensively, as there are few answers beyond guard Malcolm Delaney and forward Jeff Allen. It is tantamount neither gets in foul trouble, which occurred in loss to Temple. Watch the line closely on this matchup, with Virginia Tech 3-16 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 since 1997.

The Basketball Prospectus website has come with something called the “Degree of DeChellis”. Named after the Penn State coach, it factors an element that the Nittany Lions continually out-play --per possession performance. The basic principle of this exercise is Penn State (6-3, 4-4 ATS), under DeChellis, continually outperforms year after year expectations and common game situations. He has them playing competitively, despite being out-gunned most nights. He’s not on anybody’s top coaches list, but he works with what he has as good or better than any coach. DeChellis’ teams are 6-0 ATS playing a team with a winnng record.

Purdue at Alabama 9:00E ESPN2

Purdue (8-0, 5-3 ATS) is enjoying its highest ranking in 13 years in the Top 25 and they are starting to look like are going to be the team to beat in the Big Ten. In winning the Paradise Jam and handling Wake Forest, they have shown diversity in style of play. The offense has a vast array of ways to score inside or outside and the defense can play lockdown opposing team’s offensive sets. One difference over the last couple years that has manifested itself, the Boilermakers have another gear, a Usain Bolt if you will, with E’Twaun Moore at the controls. Purdue is 6-1 ATS on the road after three or more home games.

By most accounts of those that follow SEC basketball, Alabama (6-2, 4-2 ATS) has underachieved the last several seasons, held hostage by the health of point guard Ronald Steele and former coach Mark Gottfried’s apparent inability to get the most out of team. New coach Anthony Grant is already turning a few heads with the Crimson Tide’s smarter play. He’s leaning on veteran guards like Mikhail Torrance and Charvez Davis, especially with Andrew Steele out with stress fracture. This could be early signature win Grant is looking for and the Tide is 18-7 ATS as a home underdog or pick since 1997.

Sunday, Dec.13

Cincinnati at Xavier 7:00E ESPNU

There are special rivalries all across the college basketball landscape, but when the teams are in the same city and the players facing one another in playground battles most of the year, this takes the emotion to the next level. This Queen City battle is bitter and often very physical, which suits Cincinnati (6-1, 3-2 ATS) just fine. Guard Deonta Vaughn is the unquestioned leader of this team. Yancy Gates, Rashad Bishop, Lance Stephenson, and Cashmere Wright are a stellar supporting cast. This team could be a much larger factor in the Big East than previously given credit for, especially if the lauded frosh Stephenson blossoms. The Bearcats are respectable 22-15 ATS as underdogs.

Xavier basketball has been on a high plane the last few years, averaging better than 27 wins per season, and former assistant Chris Mack is entrusted with keeping the program rolling. Guard Jordan Crawford and center Jason Love are the leading scorers for the Musketeers (5-3, 4-3 ATS), however beyond this twosome; points are iffy game in and game out. In losses to Baylor, Marquette and Kansas State, Xavier shot below 38 percent. The Musketeers have won eight of last 12 encounters (7-4-1 ATS), including five of last six at home (3-3 ATS).

Army vs Navy

This will be the 110th renewal of this historic rivalry on Saturday afternoon at Lincoln Financial Field. In Philadelphia, the game is neutral in the truest sense, being roughly equidistant from the two academies. Navy is currently working on a seven-game winning streak in the series, the longest ever in the rich history. Overall, the Midshipmen own a 53-49-7 edge all time.

This battle takes on greater emotional significance with country’s involvement in the world and when the two schools march in to take their place in the stadium, it is one of the coolest moments you will ever see before a game starts.

This contest has more than usual riding on it, especially for Army (5-6, 3-7 ATS). First year coach Rick Ellerson was brought in to change the football aspect of the Black Knights, who had won as many as four games once in the last dozen seasons before this year. With an upset win over Navy, Army would secure first bowl bid since 1996 and take on Temple in the EagleBank Bowl.

Besides attempting to end that drought, the pain of not defeating the Midshipmen since 2001 (1-6 ATS) hangs over West Point like an omnipresent cloud. The biggest problem for Army of late has been scoring points, as they’ve produced just 10.1 points per game during the losing skid. Ordinarily, you would think rest and preparation would benefit any football squad, however if you are outmanned, it doesn’t matter. The Black Knights of the Hudson are unthinkable 3-24 ATS with rest.

For Navy (8-4, 5-5-1 ATS), it is business as usual. They have already locked up Texas Bowl bid against Missouri and for the third consecutive year and fifth in the last six, are double digit favorites vs. their biggest rival. (Bookmaker.com has the Middies at -15.5, with total of 41.5).

The Midshipmen have one very distinct advantage in this matchup, they can score. Navy averages 28.3 points per game, behind the nation’s third best rushing attack, averaging 279.6 yards per game. Navy is off a 24-17 upset loss at Hawaii as nine-point favorites and is 35-13 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive losses against the spread.

Army on the other hand struggles to score points, totaling just 16.5 per game, ranking 116th in total offense at 283.4 yards per game against opponents that allowed 91 more yards a contest. This means Army will need to force turnovers and win the special teams battle to setup better field position, since they are unlikely to put together many long drives, no matter how fired up they are. They are just 4-13 ATS when the total is 42 or less.

Over the years, this contest has lost significance in the public eye for a variety of reasons and the two institutions worked out a deal with CBS to rekindle the spirit and give it its own special date, the second Saturday in December, away from conference championships and BCS chatter.

No matter the outcome, the effort will not be question. If anyone saw the Navy beat Notre Dame or the Army knock off Vanderbilt from the SEC this season, these players go hard for all 60 minutes. To the winners go the spoils and bragging rights that last an entire year. Should Navy win, the Commander in Chief Trophy stays with them yet again.

3DWLine – Navy by 16

Steve Makinen of the Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

Browns try to add to Pittsburgh's problems

Already blanked at home by a division rival in prime time, the Browns get another crack to show the nation how hopeless they are when they host Pittsburgh in a Thursday night tilt on the NFL Network. Cleveland (1-11, 6-6 ATS), a 16-0 loser at home to Baltimore on Monday night in Week 10, has dropped 12 straight against the Steelers (3-9 ATS) and are 1-18 and 6-11-2 ATS against Pittsburgh, including its only playoff game in the past decade.

Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin vowed to “unleash hell in December” after the loss to the Ravens in Week 12 and the Oakland Raiders channeled former AC/DC front man Bon Scott and found out “Hell ain’t a bad place to be” in stunning 27-24 road upset as 15-point underdogs.

Pittsburgh (4-8 ATS) is in great danger of missing the playoffs at 6-6 and facing three difficult remaining games, the defending champs are in a must-win state. That shouldn’t be a concern this week, as win-often is something the Steelers have done in Cleveland, eight straight times while going 4-2-2 ATS.

Coach Tomlin has seen enough. "We can't stay status quo in terms of how we're approaching this and expect the pattern of behavior or outcome to change," Tomlin said. "That's unrealistic. That's hoping. This is not a hope business." Expect to see changes in the secondary, especially at cornerback, where the Steelers have been beaten. All-Pro safety Troy Polamalu will likely miss his fourth straight game with a knee problem and rookie receiver Mike Wallace will start if Hines Wards as presumed can’t go with a bad hamstring. The Steelers are 21-9-2 ATS as division road team.

The Steelers took a messy first meeting with the Browns, 27-14, at Heinz Field behind 417 yards passing from Ben Roethlisberger. The Week 6 game featured eight turnovers—four by each team—but that’s about the only area the statistics were even. The Steelers outgained the Browns 543-197, enjoyed a 28-12 difference in first downs and held the ball for almost 37 minutes.

That victory for the defending Super Bowl champs was their third during a five-game winning streak, but a rough three-game stretch followed and put them squarely on the playoff bubble. Pittsburgh’s loss in Kansas City in Week 11 was particularly disturbing because it rolled up 233 more yards than the Chiefs and saw Roethlisberger wobble off the field in overtime with a concussion that kept him out of a key showdown at Baltimore, which also ended with a defeat in overtime.

The Steelers were in a similar position in 2005 when they won their last four regular-season games to sneak into the playoffs as the No. 6 seed, then went on to win three times on the road in the postseason and beat Seattle in the Super Bowl. Repeating that accomplishment doesn’t seem likely, though it’s entirely possible they’ll be favored to win each of their remaining games. After this trip to the Dawg Pound they play Green Bay and Baltimore at home before closing at Miami. Coming into the season, the Steelers were 7-2 ATS as road favorite off a SU loss; however they have failed to win or cover in two attempts in 2009.

The Browns still are not winning, nevertheless positive signs are emerging. They have beaten the oddsmakers three consecutive times, as Brady Quinn has played more than adequate football, throwing for over 255 yards in two of last three games and hasn’t thrown an interception in that time. Cleveland is 10-4 ATS at home off a home game.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Pittsburgh as 10-point favorites; however, they are just 2-6 ATS in last eight double-digit favorite roles under Tomlin, following the loss to the Raiders Sunday, including 0-4 against the number this season.

Cleveland has won just one of its last dozen games vs. AFC North foes (4-8 ATS) and is trying to snap a 10-game home losing streak. They are 2-7-1 ATS at home since unthinkable Monday night 35-14 upset of the then defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants. After last week’s 30-23 loss to San Diego, the Brownies are 23-12-1 ATS after scoring 23 or more points.

Bettors have hit the total hard, taking it from opening 37.5 to 33. Pittsburgh is 13-4 UNDER in road games off an upset loss as a home favorite and Cleveland is 7-13-1UNDER as a division home dawg.

It will be the usual 8:20 Eastern starting time for this AFC North matchup on the NFL Network, with the UNDER 7-0 on Thursday’s this season.

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

Scheduling and odds to making the Super Bowl

With one quarter of the season remaining in the NFL, the pretenders and contenders are sorting their way out. This week we’ll take a look at the prospects of the main contenders for the 12 available spots in the postseason and what their current odds are to win their respective conferences are. As is always the case in the NFL, one injury or loss can completely change how a team is viewed and seeing I don’t work for MSNBC or Fox News, I can’t predict the future nearly as well as they do. Thus, I will use my knowledge of the facts and extrapolate them.

The New Orleans Saints are -125 to win the NFC and are on pace to make history. As great as the Tom Brady and the New England Patriots were in 2007, the Saints appear better in some ways. They have a greater diversification of weapons and can play different styles to beat opponents. Drew Brees and Sean Payton are in that Bill Walsh/Joe Montana oneness of mind, thinking up schemes that free up players to catch passes and open chasms for running backs is artistic in the football sense. The Saints still have to play all three division foes and they have a good history at Atlanta and at Carolina. They have Dallas in Week 15, which is toughest remaining test. New Orleans should stay focused with Minnesota directly behind them.

There are three leading candidates for MVP, but only one is 40 years old and arguably is having his best season. The season has to play out, but no one player has impacted his team more in a positive sense than No.4. Minnesota is +140 at DiamondSportsbook.com to take the NFC crown and Brett Favre has made a pedestrian receiving core well above average and taken pressure off Adrian Peterson. The defense is still improving and extremely fast on the carpet. Minnesota’s two toughest games remaining are at the Metrodome in Week 14 and 17 vs. Cincinnati and the Giants. They will be road favorites at Carolina and Chicago.

With the Cowboys putrid record in last four games of the regular season (11-25 SU, 12-23-1 ATS last nine years), this year’s slate isn’t conducive to winning either. In order, Dallas takes on San Diego, at New Orleans, at Washington and Philadelphia. Now tied for first place in the NFC East, the Cowboys are listed as +1500 to take conference.

The defending NFC champions Arizona (+700) should improve on last year’s 9-7 record facing San Francisco, Detroit and St. Louis the next three weeks (the first two as visitors) and if all goes as presumed, their last game of the year might mean something to Green Bay.

The wild card picture at the moment has four teams for two spots. Atlanta has a chance, but they have to win out. The Falcons last three games are all winnable, at the Jets, Buffalo and at Tampa Bay. It’s this week’s game at the Georgia Dome vs. the Saints that might be the determining factor. The Giants still have a lot of work to do and division games against the Eagles, at the Redskins and at Minnesota make this a real challenge. After this past week, the Giants (+2000) and Atlanta (+5000) odds have been adjusted significantly.

If Green Bay (+2000) fails to meet expectations, the loss at than 0-7 Tampa Bay will haunt them. The Packers are the only NFC team in the playoff hunt that has to play three of last four encounters on the road. They have the rival Bears in Chi-town on a short week and also have trips to Pittsburgh and Arizona. At least one win will be required to make the postseason.

Philadelphia (+1000) theoretically has the most challenging remaining schedule with all four opponents still alive the postseason. Included are division excursions to the Giants and Dallas, with San Francisco and Denver in the City of Brotherly Love.

In the AFC, part of equation is virtually complete. The Indianapolis Colts have already started talk of resting players to get them healthy for the postseason. This is common practice for the Colts, who play three of the last four contests at Lucas Oil Stadium. Indianapolis is -140 wager to represent their conference, yet how often has a team been on cruise control in the latter part of the season and faltered before Super Bowl. Only once have the Colts won division and had a bye week and even advanced to AFC title tilt, which they lost in 2004.

The next closest contenders on this side of the bracket appear to be Cincinnati (+500) and San Diego (+350). These two clubs are in contention for the second seed and bye and their week 15 matchup at Qualcomm Stadium just might be the deciding factor. Before then the Bengals have to navigate a tough trip the land of 10,000 frozen lakes and go up against the team in purple. If Cincy lost at Minnesota but wins at San Diego, they might be fine with last two games vs. Kansas City and at the Jets. The offense needs to pick up scoring, as they have totaled more than 20 points just twice in last eight affairs.

The Chargers have been playing tremendous football and will have to keep playing the same with the rest of their schedule. This week it’s a dandy at Dallas, followed by the aforementioned Bengals bout. That is followed by adventure to Tennessee, who is not going quietly and the Bolts finish at home against Washington, who is playing everybody tough.

It started last year, but this is not the same New England team that 18-0 before losing in the Super Bowl in 2007. This team has several defensive holes and the front office might looks to have erred in trading Richard Seymour, whose presents likely would have covered up secondary flaws. The Patriots are +700, however that seems based on reputation more than current status. Nonetheless, they should close the season 4-0 with their schedule.

Denver should do no worse than the top wild card and still is in contention for AFC West crown. Expect them to win last two home games against Oakland and Kansas City. Their ultimate destination will be determined by how they perform at Indianapolis this week and in two weeks at Philadelphia. The Broncos are the second longest shot to win the AFC of contenders at +2000.

The team the oddsmakers or fans don’t like is Jacksonville and for good reason. The Jaguars (+5000) average 18.7 points per game and surrender 22.7, yet 7-5 record has them in the hunt for extra playing time. The Washington Redskins at 3-9 have a better score differential (-38 vs. -48). The Jags will have to navigate thru Miami and Indy at home and finish at New England and at Cleveland to help decide their fate.

Baltimore has the scheduling edge over Pittsburgh for wild card berth, but chances are the week 16 meeting between these physical rivals at Heinz Field will determine each ones fate. The Ravens have three pushovers in Chicago, Detroit and Oakland, with the first two at home and latter against Raiders team who will probably have bags packed for the season BEFORE the game.

The Steelers win at Cleveland, but have curious matchups with the Packers at home and at Miami to close 16-game slate. Despite this, the Steelers as defending Super Bowl champions are +1200 compared to Baltimore +1500.

It’s possible a team not mentioned here could finish the season 4-0 and one or more of these other teams could falter; however there is no evidence to suggest that will happen.