MLB division leaders a safe second half bet

A quick glance at the standings today has New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox and Texas in first place in the American League, with Tampa Bay as wild card team, using the dreaded term “if the season ended today”.

In the National League, it is Atlanta, Cincinnati and San Diego, with Colorado and the Los Angeles Dodgers tied for the final playoff spot.

Without too much thought, the White Sox, Reds and Padres appear to be the most vulnerable of giving up their division leads by October 3 (the last day of the regular season), as the Pale Hose have to uncover another starting pitcher to replace Jake Peavy, who was coming on and the two clubs from the senior circuit have a “pretender” feel about them. However, based on recent history, all six division leaders could be relatively good “play on” teams the rest of the year.

Don’t misunderstand, I’m not suggesting to play these teams every day, in fact in some cases you might not want to play them at all for week given a slump or rugged road trip. Let’s face it; can you really expect San Diego to improve on baseball best +17.2 units with their 51-37 first half record? Not by much if at all really. Nonetheless, as a sage bettor told me more than once, “A fool and his money are soon to part without a look in the rearview mirror.”

The last two years, nine of the 12 All-Star break leaders went on to capture their respective division crowns and 10 of 12 made their way into the postseason. That’s 83.3 percent, a rather healthy figure and look around at any website that has full season baseball units won/lost records, will mostly show these clubs in black numbers and in the Top 10 in baseball for that particular year.

2009 (All-Star break position – final standings position)
Boston - 1st – Wild card
Detroit – 1st – Minnesota wins division in playoff
L.A. Angels – 1st – 1st
Philadelphia – 1st -1st
St. Louis – 1st – 1st
L.A. Dodgers 1st – 1st

2008 (All-Star break position – final standings position)
Tampa Bay – 1st – 1st
Chic. White Sox – 1st -1st
L.A. Angels – 1st – 1st
Philadelphia – 1st – 1st
Chic. Cubs – 1st – 1st
Arizona – 1st – L.A. Dodgers win division

Since 2002, 30 of the 48 All-Star break leaders have gone on to be division champions and five more were playing postseason baseball.

With rare exception do these teams completely fold, unless ravaged by injury. That’s not to say any squad is above a costly September swoon, like the New York Mets in 2007 (5-12 record - Sept. 14 until season end) and 2008 (6-10 close) or the 2005 World Series champion Chicago White Sox (Sept. 8-27, 7-12).

While crazy things do happen for those betting sports, a good team is still a good team and often playoff contender’s feast on other clubs whose season has long since been over except for completing the schedule. (Insert Pittsburgh here, since they have endured the curse of Barry Bonds, without a winning season since he left after 1992 campaign)

Taking on sports betting lines from oddsmakers is a different proposition in the second half of the schedule, as they start to add volume to first place favorites, taking the stance if you want bet the chalk, you need the intestinal fortitude to back it up with cash. However, it is not uncommon for these types of teams to win five or more in a row and if you started the winning streak with them, much like betting additional numbers on a craps table with hot shooter, the winnings more than offset one loss or bad roll.

As always, be selective, pick your spots and don’t be anxious or greedy, two absolute sins of gambling.

One final point, understand the workings of the wild card. In the past eight years, the AL team the ultimately earned the wild card slot was already in this position at the break or in first place. That is good news for Tampa Bay.

Conversely in the NL, only the 2006 Dodgers, who were tied for first place with San Diego, have made the postseason as the fourth team supposedly poised to be playing in October. This is not good news for Rockies or Dodgers backers at present.

RIP Big Stein

I had a couple of different friends that worked for George Steinbrenner over the years. They said he was even more demanding than his public persona. He literally had an unquenchable thirst for winning and never let people or money get in the way.

Like Billy Martin, my friends were fired and hired back more than once and though well paid, they were essentially on 24 hour call, seven days a week, 365 days a year, even if they were on vacation.

The best story a friend told me was after getting his ass-chewed for 30 minutes by George, he ordered him to take the rest of the day off and think about if he really wanted to work for the company George owned in Tampa at the time. My friend had plenty of battle scars, but this tirade was particularly brutal and he went to local bar to have a beer, something to eat and consider what he wanted to do for a next move.

After ordering his food and drowning one drink, his company issued beeper was flashing and he went to his car and made a call (that’s how it was back then). George was on the phone, yelling at him to get back to work immediately, since it required his attention and the group he was working with. My friend told George he had just ordered food after being sent home by him and George said he didn’t give a crap, pay for the food immediately and get his ass back to work.

In a dazed and confused state, my friend went back to his job, George laid out to the project group he was on what needed to done and gave them an impossible deadline.

Somehow my friend and his co-workers finished the project on time and were sitting around feeling satisfied. George called my friend into the office and said something like, “I’m hard on everyone, because I love winning and hate losing. Go back to work.”

That was George Steinbrenner, always in the relentless pursuit of winning and he was awfully damn good at it.

Having fun with the All-Star Game

Of the various All-Star events, baseball’s is the best since the game is still in its purest form compared to the others. Basketball and hockey are defenseless matches designed for entertainment, football, not really sure what that even is with its special rules. Baseball is about pitching and hitting, just like it is for 162 games during the season, only with the sports brightest stars.

This year’s “Mid-Summer Classic” returns to Anaheim for the first time since 1989, when the host team was known as the California Angels. That season the Kansas City Royals Bo Jackson was the star of stars, taking home the MVP trophy.

The All-Star contest has had unusual runs of domination during its previous 80 conflicts (AL leads 40-38-2). Starting in 1950, the National League dominated the action, winning 33 of 40 games played, with one tie. Though the American League has not approached that length of dominance, they have controlled the action with 12-0-1 mark since 1997.

It is not a coincidence the American League has made the National League it own personal punching bag for over a decade. In reviewing the two All-Star rosters, the American League has more balance in terms of creating base hits and power, while the National League is lagging in the power department. The situation is made worse as three of the senior circuit’s top vote-getters are on the disabled list. (Chase Utley, Placido Palanco and Jason Heyward)

The National League is a +110 underdog based on recent history and being the visiting team. Nevertheless, they will have a number of quality arms to toe the rubber with the likes of Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Johnson, Tim Hudson and others.

The total of 8.5 could be a very inviting wager, as only five of the last 19 All-Star games have matched or gone below the number. However, playing in California does create different circumstances, since there will be ample sunlight early in the contest because of the start time, followed by a period in the middle innings when pitchers should have edge before the lights take full effect after dusk.

One of the best aspects of the All-Star game that few know about is Ichiro Suzuki’s pregame speech. Ichiro has always made this a personal battle and his pre-game comments are legendary in the American League locker room, both for their intensity and hilarity, trying to find the right English words to convey his enthusiasm and desire for winning.

Sports betting enthusiasts will have the opportunity to make several different wagers besides the side and total at online sports betting outlets and it can be fun to check out the various prop bet options available and pick up extra cash while enjoying the game.

Given how the AL has controlled their baseball brethren from the other league, it’s difficult to bet against the junior circuit and an Over play is also a logical conclusion to make. However, with pitching so dominant this season, I’ll suggest it carries over and make a small wager on the Under.

Enjoy the game!

Betting Baseball Futures by the Numbers

The interpretation of how baseball was to be viewed differently came about with Bill James book “Baseball Abstract”. He and his fellow scribes developed an illuminating way to no longer take a batting and earned run averages at face value, rather look inside the numbers to understand what it really might mean. The term “sabermetric” became part of the language of baseball in the late 1980’s and still is widely renowned in today’s world.

This has lead to other methods of interpreting statistics, opening the door for Baseball Prospectus and Baseball-Reference.com to name a couple. This in-depth type of analysis of numbers has benefited fans and those who love to wager on baseball. For those seeking opportunity to place futures wagers on baseball, being able to see halfway thru the season eliminates some of the guess work that appeared cumbersome back in March.

Today you have a track record to follow and an inkling what might occur in the last 81 games of the baseball season. The oddsmakers do also, and a San Diego preseason wager of Over/Under 74 wins at Sportsbook.com looks safer today then it did before the season started. However, the corrective reading goggles of the halfway point of the season has the Padres as less favorable +110 choice to win the NL West compared back in March when they +600.

One element of James’ work that is as fresh today as it was when he first brought up new topics is the runs scored vs. runs allowed aspect of the game. If you score more runs than your opponent, you cannot lose. If you score a great deal more runs then the opposition, then you might have a dominate team. From the wagering standpoint, the value in this information is which teams are playing to their potential, which are playing above their potential and which are playing below. The last two elements are especially valuable, since if a team or teams continue on the same path, ultimately, they should reach their water mark and play accordingly.

Our goal in making long and short term wagers for baseball is to ensure equal representation of all teams. Since we have the time at the All-Star, we’ll look who at every Major League squad has played thru 81 games or half the schedule. This presents a balanced look at all the teams.

How this exercise works is to multiply the number of runs scored and square it, followed by doing the same with number of runs allowed. We’ll use the New York Yankees as the example.

Yankees runs scored – 436
Yankees runs allowed – 340

436 x 436 = 190096
340 x 340 = 115600

Add the two numbers together and divide the runs scored into the total to achieve a percentage.
190096 + 115600 = 305696
190096 divided by 305696 = .621

Take the number 81 (half the season) and multiply by .621, this gives you a total of 50.3. What this means is the Yankees should have a record of 50-31, based on runs scored and allowed and their actual record was exactly the same, thus right on schedule.

Any difference greater than three games means something is occurring that needs to be understood. Typically, bullpen production or lack of it is the biggest culprit in terms of wins and losses. Below is the complete list showing each team’s actual record and record based on RS/RA methodology and projected season total if they were to play exactly the same way.

American League (actual – projected- possible season record)

AL East
New York Yankees 50-31 - 50-31- 100-62
Boston 49-32 - 47-34 – 94-68
Tampa Bay 48-33 - 51-30 – 102-60
Toronto 41-40 - 44-37 – 82-80
Baltimore 25-56 – 25-56 – 50-112

AL Central
Detroit 45-36 – 41-40 – 82-80
Minnesota 44-37 - 46-35 – 92-70
Chicago WS 43-38 - 41-40 – 82-80
Kansas City 36-45 - 37-44 – 74-88
Cleveland 32-49 - 33-48 – 66-96

AL West
Texas 48-33 - 48-33 - 96-66
L.A. Angels 45-36 - 40-41 – 80-82
Oakland 40-41 - 40-41 – 80-82
Seattle 34-47 - 32-49 – 64-98

AL Observations – The biggest surprise out of the AL East is Tampa Bay projected to win its division. Though most sports books still taking action on division titles have the Rays as the third choice to win AL East, Tampa Bay brings plenty to the party. How they have managed to overachieve thus far is because they have the highest save percentage in the league and concede the lowest on-base percentage in the junior circuit (.305). Another reason Tampa Bay might be around longer than most expected is 25-10 record in games decided by four or more runs, showing their dominance.

The Detroit Tigers bullpen has saved them in the first half of the year, however their pitching as a whole might well send them plummeting in the second half of the season unless they swing a trade for another starter. The Chicago White Sox are the hottest team in baseball with an eight-game winning streak, but have to find a way to replace Jake Peavy who is gone for the year.

The Los Angeles Angels limp into the break having lost eight of last 10. Normally, if a team outperforms its RS/RA numbers, the bullpen is the reason. The overall season numbers for the Halos bullpen is meager, however during their hot June (19-10), the pen actually pitched well. Unless they pick up another bat for the lineup and the entire pitching staff improves, the Texas Rangers could well run away with this very weak division.

National League (actual – projected - possible season record)

NL East
Atlanta 48-33 - 48-33 – 96-66
N.Y. Mets 45-46 - 46-35 – 92-70
Philadelphia 43-38 - 46-35 – 92-70
Florida 38-43 - 43-38 – 86-76
Washington 35-46 -35-46 – 70-92

NL Central
Cincinnati 46-35 - 45-36 -90-72
St. Louis 44-37 - 47-34 -94-68
Milwaukee 37-44 -38-43 - 76-86
Chicago Cubs 35-46 -36-45 – 72-90
Houston 32-39 - 26-55 – 52-110
Pittsburgh 29-52 - 20-61 – 40-122

NL West
San Diego 48-33 - 47-34 – 94-68
L.A. Dodgers 45-36 - 43-38 – 86-76
Colorado 43-38 - 44-37 – 88-74
San Francisco 41-40 – 44-37 - 88-74
Arizona 32-49 – 32-49 – 64-98

NL Observations – The two-time defending NL champion Phillies have outperformed their record, thanks to their ability to rule the NL Central. Philadelphia is 17-8 and +39 in RS/RA against that division (+48 overall). With no Chase Utley likely until September, the Phillies might not have enough hitting or pitching to catch Atlanta. The Florida Marlins numbers suggest they should be better, which is why manager Fredi Gonzalez was shown the door. The Fish are tied for the most blown saves in the NL and their 11-17 record in one run games speaks volumes.

The NL Central appears to be a two team race the rest of the season and how they perform against the other four mediocre clubs should determine the Reds or Cardinals fate. If skipper Tony LaRussa can find ways to score more runs, St. Louis should win division based on numbers.

It’s interesting to note both Houston and Pittsburgh have out-performed (at least on some level) their actual RS/RA figures. Not sure what hiring former Astros star Jeff Bagwell as hitting coach is going to do for team that is 9-28 in games decided by four or more runs. Then there are the Pirates. Consider Pittsburgh has been outscored by 194 runs this season. To put that number into perspective, that is more than fellow last place teams Seattle and Arizona combined (-179 total). The Bucs are a walking play against run line team, losing by 2.2 runs per game and are 4-29 in contests determined by four runs or more.

San Diego is not a fluke, perfectly built for their vast acreage called Petco Park, with more than enough pitching to keep them competitive on the road. Will the lack of offensive production hold up, we’ll find out. Based on first half play, if one team in the NL West could improve, the San Francisco Giants should if they could squeeze more out of their batting order.

Sunday Stuff and more Winners

Two more official winners on Saturday, takes us to 103-57 as we continue to follow the sensational exploits of Ron’s top plays and he has another today. We also have a perfect Top Trend and a MLB system that is over 86 percent! Good Luck

What I heard yesterday – The Chicago Cubs average over six runs a game when they win and 2.4 RPG when they lose, quite a separation.

Make sure to come around even during the All-Star break, I will have articles and another college football preview to checkout.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against all underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 like the M’s, who are subpar AL hitting team (BA .265 or less), against a good starting pitcher (ERA of 4.20 or lower), who are batting .225 or worse over their last five games. Since 2006 this adds up to 51-8 record, 86.4 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Jeff Niemann and the Rays are 13-0 vs. poor power teams, averaging 0.9 or less home runs game over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Ron continues to spew winners with 53-14 mark and has Angels and A’s Under 7 this afternoon.

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More Red Hot Winners at 3DW

Two more winners last night takes 3DW to 101-57, 63.9 percent, of our most recent plays. Though we have missed days here and there for plays, did you realize Ron has been doling out winners since June 13! That is by far the best streak we’ve ever had, considering one posted loss means “See Ya”. His top play is listed below for Free. Today’s Top Trend is a totals play and the Best System is light, but still very strong at 76.5 percent. Good Luck

What I thought and heard today – How weird life can be when you anticipate events to occur in a certain way and out of nowhere something completely different occurs. I know it’s a broad topic, but sometimes it’s just crazy.

Can you believe the line on Rangers/O’s game? It’s a terrible value even on the standard run line. You’d have to go to 2.5 run line just to have reasonable number for taking a loss and though Texas could win 10-3 easily, a tough number to beat, especially in July.

Just saw this on Twitter from former NBA player Toni Kukoc - What is the difference between LeBron and the planet Saturn, both are large, full of gas, but Saturn as least has rings. Not bad.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) This won’t be a qualifying play because it falls below 80 percent limit, however at least consider the Yankees as Play On team with a money line of -100 to -150, when team's hitters draw four walks or more game on the season, after allowing two runs or less in a trio of contests. This system checks in at 72-22.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Tom Gorzelanny of the Chicago Cubs is 10-1 OVER in road games playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season during his career.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Ron had three more winners last night taking his record to 50-12 since June 9 (holy sh_t) in baseball. Tonight his favorite play is Houston to launch the Cardinals.

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2010 BIG 10 CONFERENCE FOOTBALL PREVIEW

By Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com

When you talk Big 10 Football these days you talk Ohio State.

The Buckeyes won at least a share of the last five Big Ten Championships and will look to match the conference record with a sixth straight crown in 2010, equaling the feat first accomplished by Ohio State from 1972-77. OSU became just the second team in conference history to win five straight conference championships after claiming the 2009 title, splitting the crown with Penn State in 2005 and 2008 and ending the 2006, 2007 and 2009 seasons alone in first place. The Buckeyes have compiled a Big Ten mark of 36-4 over the last five years. Ohio State became the first conference team in over 15 years to finish in first place in five straight seasons since Michigan won at least a share of five consecutive championships from 1988-92.

The 2009 Big Ten Offensive and Defensive Players of the Year return to their respective teams in 2010. Wisconsin RB John Clay and Michigan State LB Greg Jones enter the 2010 campaign as the respective winners last season. Clay becomes the first returning Offensive Player of the Year since 1999 when former Purdue quarterback Drew Brees returned to the Boilermakers after being honored as a sophomore in 1998. Jones becomes the first returning Defensive Player of the Year since 2008, when Ohio State linebacker James Laurinaitis came back to successfully defend his 2007 conference honor.

The Big Ten also welcomes back seven starting quarterbacks from the 2009 season, five of which led their teams to bowl appearances. Iowa senior Ricky Stanzi and Ohio State junior Terrelle Pryor each led their squads to BCS victories last January, Stanzi in the Orange Bowl and Pryor in the Rose Bowl. Wisconsin senior Scott Tolzien led the Badgers to a victory in the Champs Sports Bowl, while Minnesota senior Adam Weber guided the Gophers to the Insight Bowl. Michigan State junior Kirk Cousins guided the Spartans' in their 31-point effort in the Alamo Bowl. Also returning in 2010 is the conference's top statistical passer, Indiana senior Ben Chappell, and Michigan sophomore Tate Forcier, the only full-time freshman starting quarterback in the Big Ten last year.

And the there’s Joe. Penn State's Joe Paterno picked up his 394th victory with a triumph over LSU in the Capital One Bowl and currently holds the all-time victory record among Football Bowl Subdivision coaches. Paterno has built a record of 394-129-3 in his 44 seasons leading the Nittany Lions. Paterno is the longest serving head coach at one school in major college football history.

Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2010 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

ILLINOIS – 5 / 7
TEAM THEME: OUT OF JUICE
Thanks to a disappointing offense and an even worse defense, the Illini could only squeeze out three wins in 2009. Six new assistant coaches arrive in Champaign to sort out the mess led by OC Paul Petrino (Bobby’s brother) and DC Vic Koennig. Petrino’s playbook won’t include Juice Williams, whose once promising career soured out, or top WR Arrelious Benn, a 2nd round NFL draft pick. The plan may be to revert back to classic Big Ten football as four of the team’s top five RB’s return. In addition, four of the Illini’s top five tacklers are back in the fray. With eight bowlers lining the 2010 schedule, including road trips to Penn State and Fresno State, ‘three yards’ may be a bit optimistic. However, the cloud of dust is likely to hang over this program for at least one more season.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Fresno St (12/3)

INDIANA – *8 / 4
TEAM THEME: QUICK DRAW
The feeling here is the Hoosiers could be a real sleeper team in 2010. Four of their eight losses last year were by 3 points or less. A promising 3-1 start ended in a 0-5 disaster after IU blew a 25-point lead at Northwestern and followed up by choking away a two-TD lead at Iowa. The roster is loaded with upper classmen (19 seniors, 23 juniors) and efficient QB Ben Chappell is back to lead an offense that will add the ‘Pistol’ to its repertoire. Chappell was the first QB in IU history to complete 60% of his passes in a single season. A favorable early schedule could find the Hoosiers off to a quick 5-1 start. However, they’ll need to continue pulling the trigger late in the season to silence some conference opponents and prevent another November nightmare.
PLAY ON: vs. Purdue (11/27)

IOWA – *6 / 8
TEAM THEME: COMEBACK KIDS
Talk about stability. Since 1979 only two coaches have manned the Iowa City sidelines – Hayden Fry and Kirk Ferentz. Ferentz may have saved his best coaching job for 2009. Despite ranking 10th in the Big 10 in scoring, rushing and total offense, the 12-year veteran guided his team to a 6-2 conference record, an 11-2 overall mark and an Orange Bowl win over Georgia Tech. Did we mention that Iowa, amazingly, trailed in every contest last season until the regular-season ender versus Minnesota! The Hawkeyes 10th-ranked defense (277 YPG) constantly saved the day. Expect more of the same in 2010 as it welcomes back eight starters, including the entire front four. The return of injured QB Ricky Stanzi and RB Jewel Hampton should provide the ‘O’ with a much-needed boost. Either way, the Kinnick Stadium crowd should be in for another ‘Kardiac Kampaign’.
PLAY ON: vs. Northwestern (11/13)

MICHIGAN – *7 / 8
TEAM THEME: FORCIER THE ISSUE
Pete Fiutak of College Football News.com put it best when he asked of Rich Rodriguez’s playbook, “Is this thing ever going to work?” As disappointing as Michigan’s spread offense has been, the defense has been worse – decaying 57 YPG since Rich Rod’s arrival. Last season, the Wolves suffered through a 6-game Big Ten losing streak for the first time in 50 years. In fact, Rodriguez has 13 conference losses in just two seasons at Ann Arbor. FYI: It took Bo Schembechler 13 years to lose 13 Big Ten games! There was one bright spot in the Big House and that was the play of freshman QB Tate Forcier, who passed for over 2,000 yards and 13 TD’s. The automakers repaid Obama five years early on their bailout loan. Rodriguez may have to do the same if he doesn’t get it in gear this season.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Notre Dame (9/11)

MICHIGAN STATE – *7 / 6
TEAM THEME: HELTER SKELTER
East Lansing saw the good, bad and ugly in 2009. On the good side, the Spartans beat Michigan for a second straight season – the first time that’s happened since the Beatles were topping the charts in the mid ‘60’s. From a mediocre standpoint, Mark Dantonio’s bunch dropped six regular season games for the first time under his direction – though five of those losses were by a total of just 23 points. Now for the ugly: Thanks to a frat spat at the end of the regular season, a black cloud hangs over the heads of 11 players found guilty of brawling. The news also varies in 2010. Thanks to graduation losses and the fraternity chaos, the WR corps and D-line is severely short-handed entering the 2010 season. The good news is QB Kirk Cousins, who started all 13 games in 2009 and ranked No. 25 in the nation in pass efficiency, is back. Let’s hope ugly stays home.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Northwestern (10/23)

MINNESOTA – *9 / 2
TEAM THEME: SATURDAY IN THE DARK
To paraphrase a line from Dennis Green, “The Gophers are who we thought they were” – a middle of the pack Big 10 team. After a terrific turnaround in 2008, a big 2009 season could have made HC Tim Brewster millions. However, an uneventful 6-7 year capped off by a bowl loss to Iowa State has the Gophers’ faithful feeling a little punky. With just two starters and no linemen back on defense, the Minneapolis natives may be best served to keep the TV off until Sunday. The biggest shoes to fill will be the loss of three LB’s that were all NFL combine attendees. While point production dropped for the third straight year under Brewster, Minnesota’s offense may suddenly be the strength of the team with nine starters back. Nine bowlers roll onto the 2010 slate but six visit the comfy confines of TCF Bank Stadium. Saturday looks like another yawner in the City of Lakes.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Northern Illinois (9/25)

NORTHWESTERN – 8 / 6
TEAM THEME: CURIOUS ‘CATS
Savoring their most successful stretch of football in school history, the Wildcats finished the decade with a 61-60 record. The winning record may come as a bit of a surprise… as should this little piece of bar trivia: in the last 15 years, only Ohio State and Michigan have won or shared more Big Ten titles than Northwestern’s three crowns. While HC Pat Fitzgerald won just five Big Ten contests in his first two years in Evanston, his Wildcats have posted five conference wins in each of the last two seasons. An offensive line that returns intact along with the entire linebacking crew should keep the ‘Cats prowling in 2010 – but career back-up Dan Persa will have to fill the void left by 2009 Big Ten passing leader Mike Kafka. Road trips to Penn State and Wisconsin may cost the ‘Cats a couple of lives, but another year without the Buckeyes on the slate could have this bunch feeling frisky.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Indiana (10/30)

OHIO STATE – *10 / 6
TEAM THEME: COVER UP
The combination of eight home games and a ferocious defense that ranks third nationally over the last six years (280 YPG), makes the Buckeyes serious title contenders in 2010. If he doesn’t cave under the pressure of being our cover boy, QB Terrelle Pryor should be a front-runner for the Heisman Trophy. After a mid-season loss at Purdue, Pryor took matters into his owns hands (and feet), leading the Buckeyes to a season-ending 6-game win streak, including a Rose Bowl win over Oregon. The junior has plenty of help on offense as nine starters return, including a backfield that HC Jim Tressel calls the deepest he’s had in his 10 years at Columbus. Ohio State’s biggest hurdles on its way to a BCS title tilt will be road games at Wisky and Iowa. Along, of course, with our aforementioned cover jinx. Just ask Big Ben, who graced – or should we say disgraced – last year’s edition.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Iowa (11/20)

PENN STATE – 7 / 5
TEAM THEME: AMAZING RACE
To those who contend Joe Pa is slipping, we say you need to tune into a reality show – real quick. Not only have the Lions posted back-to-back 11-win seasons, but the only team that they have failed to outgain over the last two regular seasons has been Ohio State, as Penn State is 22-2 ‘In The Stats’ during that span. A tough schedule, laced with eight bowlers and road trips to Alabama, Iowa and Ohio State figure to test those numbers in 2010. Replacing QB Daryll Clark may also test Paterno’s patience, though highly-recruited SO Kevin Newsome is poised to win the starting job. Linebacker U. returns only five starters on the defensive side of the ball but that unit is in its usual reloading, rather than rebuilding, phase. It’s another race against time for the 83-year old Paterno. Our money is on Joe.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Alabama (9/11)

PURDUE – 6 / 6
TEAM THEME: SIMPLY MARVE-ELOUS
For the second straight year, the Boilermakers lose a starting QB to graduation. Joey Elliott did an admirable job replacing Curtis Painter and now it’s Robert Marve’s show. The transfer from Miami Fla, who lost his starting job to Jacory Harris, will be front and under center as the Boilermakers look to avoid a third straight losing season. Despite a seven-loss campaign, there is ‘Hope’ in West Lafayette (read: Danny). Six of the seven losses in 2009 were to bowl teams and four were by seven or less points. The second-year head coach also saw his forces win four of their final six games, beating Ohio State and Michigan in the same season for only the third time in school history. A defense that lost its entire secondary will have to be addressed but with only three winning teams on this year’s ticket, it could be a ‘marvelous’ time to be a Boiler.
PLAY ON: vs. Minnesota (10/16)

WISCONSIN –*10 / 6
TEAM THEME: ALIVE AND KICKING
It could be argued that the majority of the Badgers wins last season came against teams that barely had a pulse. Thus it was strange to watch Wisconsin manhandle Miami in the Champs Sports Bowl last year. That’s because the Badgers’ three losses last year were to quality opposition. Ironically, they will face only three teams (two coming at home) in 2010 that enjoyed winning seasons last year – the same three that took them down in 2009. That leaves nine foes sporting losing ledgers and, behind 16 returning starters, Bret Bielema is obviously anxious to let the games begin. And kick this around, if you will… Bielema, who is 38-14 in his four seasons at Madison, has seen his team involved in 13 games that were decided by three or less points. He is 9-4 in those games, with wins in five of the last six. The holes are few and far between in Camp Randall Stadium.
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Ohio State (10/16) – *KEY +6.5 pts or more

Pounding out Friday Winners

Our 99-56 record with our plays here at 3Daily Winners is pretty damn good, but Ron of the Left Coast Connection is one sick dude with his baseball run. Check out his Free Play below. The Top Trend is in the Big Apple at 90 percent and the Best System is a sweet 80 percent over extended period. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday – With each passing day, I’m certain the “N” in ESPN stands for narcissistic.

Did you see this? http://www.newseum.org/todaysfrontpages/hr.asp?fpVname=OH_CPD&ref_pge=lst

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play On home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 like the Brew Crew, with a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse on the season vs. opposing pitcher who walked five or more hitters last outing. This fairly rare system is 32-8 the past 13 years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Metropolitans are 9-1 in home games after scoring two runs or less this season, winning by 3.5 runs per outing.

Free Baseball Pick -3) He’s become Ron(do)–matic with three more winners last night to give him incredible 47-11 record on the base paths. Ron still has plenty in the tank and believes Jason Verlander and Detroit will have the Twins seeing double.

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LeBron-a-thon over, now what?

Don’t blame ESPN for this over-the-top made for TV flop, they did what any news outlet would have done in getting an exclusive story EVERYONE would have wanted to release and milked for all its worth.

Jim Gray has not been the same reporter since hounding Pete Rose at the All-Star game and was tamer than a docile old dog in not asking LeBron James how he explains his “loyalty” to Cleveland and Ohio by leaving.

If James thought he had pressure before, it’s only going to be worse with much higher expectations moving forward. Dwayne Wade already has a ring and Chris Bosh is the third wheel to fit this tricycle. For casual fans of the NBA, it is assumed the new Three Amigos or Miami Thrice will win a few championships over the next several years.

That could well happen, but this is far from guaranteed. Forget about touches, sharing the ball and late game shots, that will work out over time. One difference between Boston’s Big Three and the South Beach Buds is the Celtic players were all adequate to superior defensive players. This is not the case with James, D-Wade or Bosh. The first two are good at getting into passing lanes and earning steals, but as straight-up defenders, most of the bouncers on Ocean Drive are more of a challenge to beat.

This means finding league-minimum players that can play defense and be adequate contributors on offense.

Hopping into the hot tub time machine, back to the mid-1970’s, the Philadelphia 76ers were similar to what Miami is trying to accomplish. They brought together superstars Julius Erving, George McGinnis and top line scoring guard Doug Collins (that’s right, the analyst and coach). In their time together, they went to the conference or NBA Finals four times, but never were crowned champs.

No question the Heat is to be taken seriously and the Los Angeles Lakers might have one more title in them, but the rest of the league is starting to flux, making this a good opportunity for this threesome to combine their super hero powers.

The Commish David Stern has to be thrilled having this buzz about his product and it will more or less continue right onto the opening tipoff in late October.

One last thing, Miami is now the betting favorite to be NBA champs at every sportsbook I checked today.

View other thoughts: http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/lebron-james-chasing-celebrity-not-championships-070910

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5367298

Related LeBron fallout:http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=196407

MLB Series Wagering - Twins at Tigers

For the large majority of the season, Minnesota has been the best team in the American League Central, however they have been knocked off that lofty perch like a bunch of Russian spies, having lost to 11 of 16 and passed by Detroit and Chicago. Where have the Twins (45-40, -2.5 units) gone wrong, it’s simple, but it gets complicated. Minnesota is 19-10 (+4.4) in AL Central games, yet is 19-23 on the road. The Twins can still return to the top of the heap by winning division tilts; however they still have to play 40 more road contests, which will necessitate better results to climb up that ladder.

Detroit (46-37, +7.9) has jumped to the front of line, being winners of seven of last 10, thanks to flexing muscles with the heavy lumber. The Tigers have average 5.9 runs per contest in this stretch and reached double digit hits eight times, including last six outings. The always dangerous Miguel Cabrera is hotter than Jennifer Aniston in Smart Water ads, sporting a 16-game hitting streak. In his last dozen games, Cabrera is batting scorching .467, with nine extra base hits among his 21 base knocks and 13 RBI’s. “I’m looking forward to Friday,” said Cabrera. No kidding the way is swinging the bat.

The Twins trail the Tigers by two games in the standings and the opener sets up as good pitching matchup. Francisco Liriano (6-6, 3.32 ERA) gives it a go against Detroit, who is 15-9 this season against left-handed starters. Liriano however is 4-2 (3.49) lifetime vs. the Tigers and the Twinkies are tough on Friday nights with 27-12 record since last year.

Detroit ace Jason Verlander (10-5, 3.85) will toe the rubber for his club and is a -127 money line favorite at many online sports betting outlets. Verlander is just 5-7 (4.03) against Minnesota, nevertheless is 34-14 when playing on real grass (Tigers record). Detroit is 28-12 at home vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season.

Game 1 Edge: Detroit

The biggest reason for the Tigers leapfrogging to division leadership is their play at Comerica Park. Detroit is an American League best 30-12 on home turf (MLB finest +15.9 units to start the weekend), batting .287 as a team with an on-base percentage of .354. Their play of late has been even more impressive, having won 15 of previous 17 in MoTown.

Manager Jim Leyland hands the ball to Jeremy Bonderman (4-6, 4.81), who after making seven of eight quality starts didn’t have much to show for it (2-3 record). He’s been racked in last three outings (25 hits and15 runs in 16 1/3 innings), with his slider not having usual bite and been hanging too many pitches. The Tigers have dropped last five contests at home when Bonderman faces winning club.

Minnesota will hope Justin Morneau can go for this battle if not the opener after suffering a mild concussion (loose term unless you suffered one) when he was accidentally kneed in the head Wednesday night. Morneau starts the series tied for second in hitting in the AL with .345 average and has 18 home runs along with 56 RBI’s.

For this Fox 4:10 Eastern conflict, Nick Blackburn (7-6, 6.00) will be Minny’s middle game starter. Blackburn is in danger of falling out of the rotation, allowing four or more earned runs in six of last seven starts, leading to capacious ERA of 9.28. That figure is actually lower than his 9.40 earned run average in road starts and Minnesota is languid 3-15 in Blackburn’s pitching attempts in road uniform.

Game 2 Edge: Detroit

Like Saturday, the last contest before the All-Star break will be a day game. This is an area Detroit has flourished with 22-13 record compared to Minnesota’s 14-17 mark.

Earlier this week skipper Ron Gardenhire flipped-flopped starting pitchers Carl Pavano and Kevin Slowey to give Pavano (9-6, 3.58), the club’s most consistent starter, one more outing before the break. The Twins right-hander pitches to contact, but doesn’t get into a great deal of trouble by limiting walks. Minny could likely use a strong outing from Pavano since they are 20-39 in road games vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better over the last three seasons.
Detroit will go with 22-year old Andrew Oliver (0-2, 5.93) who is making just his fourth big league start and second versus the Twins. The lefty throws a late moving mid-90’s fastball and if can be more consistent around the plate with slider and change, could develop into a top quality starter.

Game 3 Edge: Minnesota

Both teams feature excellent bullpens, which suggest how the starters perform, will likely determine the series. Detroit has opening game edge and Minnesota in the closer. That leaves the middle encounter as possible decider. The Tigers are playing solid baseball, with tremendous home record and 27-20 mark in games decided by three or less runs. Though the Twins have taken six of first nine meetings in 2010, Detroit looks like the best series wager.

Sportsbooks series odds: Minnesota +110, Detroit -140

3Daily Winners Pick: Detroit

Back in Business

With a 97-55 record over 152 plays, we tackle today starting with one of the best systems of the year at 91.5 percent. The Top Trend is virtually perfect and Ron is making a killing betting baseball and has another play ready to go for Free.

What I did the last few days – Went to Vegas with my vacationing daughter and had a tremendous time. No question the face of Vegas is changing, with many more people in the 25-40 range. This is in part to more affordable room rates then in the past and most of these people are used to paying $10 for drinks.

My daughter had never been downtown and I had not been at night in sometime. Had a great time viewing the overhead show and playing in the small casinos. Even went into the Golden Gate Casino, where I learned how to play craps years ago.

Met a few cappers and sharps and the word on the street is the newer M Resort is the place for serious bettors. They are taking more action with higher limits to attract the crème of the crop and have several more wagering options for those that make a living betting full or part time.

Cabo Wabo is Sammy Hagar’s place and they’ve opened restaurant as part of the Miracle Mile right on The Strip. Good food and a good time.

One thing you have to do on next visit is hit Minus 5 bar. Really unique and brought back the bone-chilling cold I used to feel and no longer miss for a second.

I was surprised to hear the number of live bands at so many places. It was funny to see one guy trying to be Sugar Ray (wasn’t happening) and a lead guitar player was still working on his moves, though he could have been Steve Nash’s brother.

Another band had a higher 30’s female singer who thought she was a younger Fergie from the Black Eyed Peas and in the same group, the guitarist must have bought his latest guitar strap at a discount store that only had “smalls” left, since it looked like he was playing his six-stringer under his chin.

If you are into Beer Pong, have to hit O’Sheas, awesome.

For the most part I had no luck gambling on pretty much anything I tried, until finally finding the right craps table at The Mirage of all places (normally don’t play their much) and getting back most of my money with a group of hot shooters. Thank God.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 like the Cubs, hitting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a smokin’ starting pitcher, whose WHIP is 1.000 or less over his last five starts. This system is delightful, 54-5 since 2006.

Free Baseball Trends -2) Baltimore is 1-19 vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits a start this season.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Met Ron in Vegas and he is just killin’ the books, now up to 44-11 in last 55 MLB plays, plus he’s making all kinds of other cash on other wagers on baseball that he personally plays in other ways. Tonight he dons brown friars clothing and is playing the Padres.

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LeBron James Sweepstakes

This whole LeBron James saga has taken on a life of its own and opinions certain very as to what others believe he should or will do.

(Read below)


http://espn.go.com/nba/
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/LeBron-James-is-packing-his-beach-bags-for-Miami?urn=nba,254632

http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/Looking-at-best-options-for-LeBron-James


Personally, I believe his final decision will speak more to his character and honest beliefs than anything else.

If he’s truly interested in winning championships, there are three locations, Miami, Cleveland and Chicago.

The Heat offers the best chance to win now with D-Wade and Chris Bosh already in the fold. People are comparing this to Boston Celtics “Three Amigos”, but it is clearly not.
Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce were all players who had enjoyed lengthy careers and were on the back side of peak performance when they got together. A James, Wade and Bosh connection has all three right in the heart of their best years and let’s not forget egos. Can it work, without a doubt, but each will have to give up a part of their game and other pieces are still necessary.

To stay in Cleveland, James has to trust ownership and front office that they will find the right pieces to bring a champion home. Best financial deal for LeBron in terms of contract and Betty White’s pleas are hard to ignore.

Chicago is not as good as it looks, at least at the moment from talent perspective. Derrick Rose would be a huge upgrade for James from the guard spot, however many of the rest of the Bulls players are somewhat similar to what the “King” has played with in Cleveland.

If James were to sign with New York or New Jersey, that would explain his true motive, building his brand. In a perfect world, the Knicks and Nets would have to make flawless decisions over the next three years to even be considered as legitimate conference contenders. Neither organization has shown the intelligence to make that happen, however both have dollars or rubles to put together package and marketing potential is endless, but presently so could the team losses.

Best guess here is Miami or Cleveland.

Baltimore in negative run line system

Being the Baltimore Orioles is about as much fun as having a wad of cash in Vegas and being told you can only play penny slots. Every now and again you will walk away a winner from a slot machine and feel good about yourself, but for the most part, rather unfulfilling and a losing proposition.

Baltimore has the worst record in baseball at 25-59 and after winning four in a row and five of six at the end June, life has returned to normal in Crab Cake-land with the Orioles 1-6 in July to start the month. The Orioles have more warts than a case of Compound W could take care of.

The majority of this article will focus on the offense, or in the case of the O’s, the lack of times they touch home plate for scores.

Baltimore is 27th in baseball in scoring at 3.6 runs per game and only Seattle scores less in the American League. As horrific as this sounds, it gets worse when the Orioles wear the visiting uniforms. They are the only team in the big leagues that has yet to register 10 road wins (9-34). Their runs scored per game falls to 3.3 and they lack the power or patience to change matters, ranked 28th in home runs as visitors and 29th in attracting walks. After yesterday’s 4-2 loss completed a sweep for Detroit, these Birds are 8-26 after scoring two runs or less this season.

Being such a sorry offensive club, Baltimore has a great deal to overcome when the pitching staff permits 5.4 runs per game. (That’s six runs per contest just to have a chance to win for those keeping score at home) Jeremy Guthrie (3-10, 4.64 ERA) will be entrusted in righting Baltimore’s situation and this will not be a simple task, given the opponent and his recent past.
Guthrie is 0-6 with a 6.17 ERA in seven starts since beating Oakland on May 25 and was hammered his last time out. The O’s right-hander was tagged for six runs and a season-high nine hits over four-plus innings in a 9-3 wipeout at Boston last Saturday.

Texas (50-34) is the clear leader in the AL West, 5.5 games ahead of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in Orange County near Disneyland. The Rangers play in a nice little bandbox in Arlington where they are 31-15 and score six runs per game on the button.

They will send Tommy Hunter (5-0, 1.98) to toe the rubber as starter. The 24-year old has won a team record five straight home games to start the season and is 11-4 with a 3.51 ERA in 17 career starts in Arlington. With the total listed at 9.5 at sportsbooks, Hunter and Texas are 14-4 when the number is 8.5 to 10 over the last two seasons.

The Rangers are a -250 money line favorite at home, however for sports bettors, the value sets up better to play them on the run line (-1.5, -130), especially with this system running.

Play Against road underdogs vs. the 1.5 run line (Run Line range of +165 to -135) who are horrible AL offensive team, scoring 3.7 runs a game or less on the season, in the second half of the year.

Dating back to 1997, this system is 48-18 and has been even sharper in 2010 with 7-2 mark. It’s impossible to ignore the Orioles are 16-41 after a loss this season and 12-41 on the road after four or more consecutive contests away from Camden Yards since last year. Throw in the fact Baltimore is 5-25 against the ML as a road underdog of +150 or more in 2010, losing by exactly two runs per game and this run line system is looking stronger by the minute.

See you soon

I'm going to be out of town for a few days and probably won't be around here much until Thursday. I'll try and post, but can't promise.

Happy 4th of July!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

A spirited 3-1 Saturday, raises our record to 94-54. We start today with Ron of the LCC just on fire and he offers his top selection for Free. The Top Trend is flat out perfect the Best System is amazing 48-8! Good Luck

3Daily Winners is No.5 in units won at Cappers Monitor the last 10 days.

What I saw yesterday – The Arizona Diamondbacks put on as bad a performance as a team can, committing six errors, a franchise record. The final score was 14-1 Dodgers and it should have been worse except for two base-running blunders by L.A. that led to unnecessary outs.

Kirk Gibson was just in his second game as manager but he is finding things out quickly about his team and himself. His starting lineup featured more than half the team made up of backups. The logic was lost on me and everyone else.

The Snakes can never, I repeat never again start Rusty Ryal at first base, his footwork and lack of experience led to directly to one and possibly two of the errors (Adam LaRoche would have saved two errors for certain) the D-Backs had.

Part of being a manager is to understand circumstances. Yes, Gibson was just on his second day on the job, but he had to know or should at least checked that this moribund team was going to have a large crowd on hand. It’s the manager’s job to win games first, however with over 44,000 on hand to watch fireworks as much or if not more than then to watch the Arizona, this was a great opportunity to go all out to impress the fans that maybe they should come back and see another game, since this club has nothing but pride and paychecks to play for the rest of the way.

The only reason anyone who was in attendance would bother to come back in 2010 is to see another team.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play On all favorites with a money line of -150 or more like the Halos, with a team batting average of .260 or less, against a good AL starting pitcher with ERA of 4.20 or less, in the second half of the season. Hitting the way back machine to 1997, this system is 48-8, 85.7 percent.

Free Baseball Trends -2) The Atlanta Braves are 9-0 vs. teams with a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 this season.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Ron continues to crush the books with a 31-9 record on the diamond and is riding the Redbirds to split series with Milwaukee.

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Saturday Specials

The Rockies scored two runs in the bottom of the eighth to blow our system play and give us a 1-2 Friday, as we look to rebound. A number of top line pitchers are scheduled to throw today and two of them have unreal records as favorites and are listed as Top Trends. Our Best System is a winner 84.1 percent of the time and Ron thinks he has another Free Winner on tap. Good Luck

3Daily Winners is No.7 in units won in MLB at Cappers Watchdog the last week.

What I saw yesterday – Kuroda of the Dodgers had nothing last night against the D-Backs, throwing 66 pitches in less than two innings. The rest of the bullpen was not much better. I just tire of watching Matt Kemp, he just doesn’t play hard. For a guy who should be approaching the prime of his career, getting benched by your manager doesn’t show a willingness to help your team.

It was just one game, but Arizona went the other way with pitches (instead of trying to pull everything like usual) and was aggressive on the base paths. I have no idea if Kirk Gibson is a good manager, but I expect he will push the Snakes to be more assertive and sit those who are not.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play On home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 like Detroit, averaging 0.9 or less long balls per game on the season, after a win by six runs or more. Dating back to when the movie “Good Will Hunting” was hit, this system is 53-10.

Free Baseball Trends -2) Ubaldo Jimenez and the Rockies are 14-0 as a home favorite of -150 or more over the last two seasons and Jon Lester and Boston are 17-0 as a home favorite of -200 or more in his career.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Ron of the LLC continues to shine with 28-8 MLB record and is taking the Red Sox to pulverize the O’s on the run line.

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Start of great holiday weekend

Having a vast number of duties to attend to, been a little so on the upkeep but we are still 90-52 in last 142 plays right here at 3Daily Winners. Ron of the Left Coast Connection is still clicking away winners and offers his best play for Free. We have a perfect trend on an AL visitor and the Best System is a totals play at 85 percent! Good Luck

Over the last 10 days, 3Daily Winners is #2 in MLB units at Cappers Monitor.

What I thought the last few days – It is a delight to have my daughter home. She’s a big Dodgers fan (don’t ask why) and we are going the next two nights.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Under on road teams like the Giants against the total when they average less than a home run per game, against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR’s a start, with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70 percent. Got that, what you need to know is this totals system is 34-6, 85 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Tampa Bay is 10-0 after three straight games with two or more stolen bases over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Ron of the LLC continues to shine on 25-8 MLB run and has the Tigers to maul the Mariners.

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MLB Series Wagering- Marlins at Braves

The general consensus from Florida players was the three game series in Puerto Rico was “different”, however at least it was successful, as they captured two of three against the New York Mets. The Marlins are glad to be back in the lower 48, even if it means taking on the team with the best home record in baseball.

Florida (-6 units) is in fourth place in the National League East with 37-41 record and a trifle rudderless with interim manager Edwin Rodriguez calling the shots, but that is life under owner Jeffrey Loria, who expects prime kobe beef steak, as long as if doesn’t cost much.

Manager Bobby Cox farewell tour is going swimmingly, with Atlanta (46-33, +8.7) atop the division. The Braves offensively are playing a brand of baseball that is a sum of parts rather than individual components. Atlanta’s team batting average is eighth in the National League at .259 and this is a club sorely lacking in power, ranking 12th in home runs (61) and 13th in total bases. Yet, they are third in total runs scored in the senior circuit and are the best in on-base percentage at .347. The larger reason for this higher ranking is the patience at the dish with 342 walks, compared to league average of 264, which are 78 more chances to score without ever putting the ball in play.

While a great deal of focus has been rightly shone on Colorado’s Ubaldo Jimenez, with his brilliant season to date, tonight’s pitcher for the Fish, Josh Johnson (8-3, 1.83 ERA), has allowed six earned runs in his last nine starts, the same as Jimenez. Johnson and Florida are 31-14 against division opponents, which includes 7-4 vs. Atlanta. The 6’7 right-hander is 4-2 with 2.91 ERA against the Braves has permitted a .545 on-base slugging percentage this season, the lowest of any pitcher in the majors.

Kris Medlen (5-1, 3.15) started the season in the bullpen, but the 24-year old has eight quality starts in nine appearances since joining the rotation on May 8. Medlen and the Bravos are +106 home underdogs, which is noteworthy with Atlanta 28-9 (+15.2 units) at home. The Braves this season are 23-9 playing against a team with a losing record, but are 7-15 facing a pitcher who allows a home run or less every other start. Florida’s Johnson is 17-4 vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game (Marlins Record) and is 23-8 since the beginning of last year, the third best record in the big leagues.

Game 1 Edge: Florida

Game 2 in the series is a regional FOX telecast and it’s the second of a 10-game road trip for Florida. While the Braves rookie right fielder Jason Heyward has garnered a great deal of attention, the Marlins might end having the NL rookie of the year. First baseman Gaby Sanchez leads all rookies in batting average, base hits, doubles and on-base percentage. When asked about his lack of notoriety Sanchez responded, "I don't mind at all, I'd rather be under the radar and coast through."

One player not coasting is Anibal Sanchez (7-4, 3.18) for Florida. Sanchez has 10 quality starts from the total of 15 he’s been given the ball and the team is 4-1 when he has five days rest.

Atlanta counters with Tommy Hanson (7-5, 4.50) who’s hit the wall. His last two starts read like this – 7 1/3 innings, 21 hits, 14 earned runs permitted, for 17.18 ERA. (Yikes) Even after being knocked around, Hanson and his teammates are 9-3 in his last dozen starts and are 17-3 at Turner Field coming into this series.

The Braves are 36-15 in the second game of a series and the Marlins are 4-9 most recently.

Game 2 Edge: Atlanta

The series finale pits Ricky Nolasco (7-6, 4.84) against veteran Tim Hudson (8-3, 2.37). The Atlanta right-hander has been exceptional all season long, conceding more than three runs once in his 16 trips to the slab. The Braves began this series 40-17 as favorites. The Marlins are drowning in the role of underdog, 11-22 as of Friday and they hope Nolasco’s bugaboo doesn’t arise again. The five year veteran has a better than 4-1 strikeout to walk ratio in 2010, but he’s been leaving too many pitches in the zone and has been taken deep 19 times already this season. A 5:05 local start time should help pitchers with more shadows.

Game 3 Edge: Braves

This is the Marlins first trip into Atlanta this season and they are 9-9 the past two years and 19-20 overall against the Braves since 2008. Florida would seem to have a legitimate opportunity to win this series because they can match Atlanta’s starting pitching. Nonetheless, baseball is a nine inning contest and with how well the Bravos are playing at home and having decided edge in the bullpen (Marlins pen ERA is 4.65 vs. Braves 3.37), a series wager on manager Cox’s club appears prudent.

Sports books series odds: Florida +140, Atlanta -1703

3Daily Winners Pick: Atlanta

July’s Good and Bad Baseball Pitcher’s

By Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com

Firecrackers and the MLB All-Star game signal the month of July. It also signifies the start of the 2nd half of the MLB campaign. The key to each and every team’s fortune lies on the pitching staff. Can they sustain or will they fold like a deck of cards? Stay tuned. What we do know is certain pitchers love hurling this time of the season while others tend to get lit up like a roman candle.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of July. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in July team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each July over the last three years. I’ll be back next month with August’s Good Month Pitchers. Until then, enjoy…

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

Burnett, A.J. [9-2]
If there is one pitcher in baseball glad to see the calendar change it is Burnett (6-7, 5.25 ERA). For the month of June he was 0-5, with gargantuan 11.34 ERA. If you caught any of his pitched games, this is a hurler really struggling mentally. Of the 35 hits he allowed last month, 11 of them went over the wall. Burnett and the Yankees hope he turns around this month around quickly.

Cook, Aaron [12-6]
The Colorado pitcher is finding his groove after a rocky start (intentional play on words), lowering his ERA to 4.69. Cook (2-5) pitches to contact and his fastball has had more sink in the last several starts and if the Rockies are going to make run at NL West crown, they will need Cook to be cookin’.

De La Rosa, Jorge [11-5]
De La Rosa has been out since April 25 with torn tendon band in the middle finger of his throwing hand. He’s at Triple-A Colorado Springs working to get to big club.

Hamels, Cole [12-4]
He’s still only 26-years old, but the lefthander just hasn’t risen to the same level of excellence he achieved during the 2008 postseason. His 54-40 career record shows too many cement-mixer curve balls and change-ups left up in the zone. The Phillies bats have been quieter this season and Hamels (4.08) has to be better than 6-6 this season.

Haren, Dan [12-4]
Throwing for Arizona is not a comfortable position for starting pitcher. As a starter you fill like you have to throw a complete game since they have combustible bullpen. This has caused Haren (7-6, 4.56) to attempt to be too fine and he touched for 19 home runs and .282 batting average compared to career number of .253. Interesting to follow if he can retain July’s previous good fortune.

Johnson, Josh [8-2]
Johnson (8-3, 1.83) hasn’t given up three earned runs in a game since May 8, which covers nine starts. At 6’7, 250-pounds, he’s imposing figure and his mid-to-high 90’s heat jumps late, causing bad swings and misses. With the way the Marlins ace is throwing, he could be in for special month.

Lackey, John [14-3]
Lackey is a Texas native and heats up like the weather when it comes to wins and losses. He’s no longer the hard thrower that can go thru a line-up more than twice without making adjustments on the run. His 9-3 record is mixed with good fortune as his 4.46 ERA is run of the mill. In Lackey’s last seven starts, Boston has averaged 8.1 runs per game.

Lester, Jon [10-1]
The left-hander continues to quietly keep rising in the elite ranks of pitchers in baseball. His 51-19 career mark is among the best since 2006 and this season he been even more impressive with 9-3 record and 2.86 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting a mere .205 against him.

Lowe, Derek [10-5]
At 37, Lowe (9-6. 4.53) is no longer the pitcher worms used to fear, with opponents incessantly beating the ball into the ground for outs. The vast majority of outs Lowe still induces are still ground balls, but his command has been a little iffier in 2010, presently heading towards a career high in free passes. If he finds the groove, he and Atlanta should have another strong month.

Oswalt, Roy [10-2]
Oswalt (3.55) is heading towards his first losing season with 5-10 record playing for an inferior Houston club. Trade rumors abound for the 32-year pitcher, who would appreciate a change of scenery to recharge the competitive juices. If a team is interested in Oswalt, it should make a move now based on July figures.

Saunders, Joe [9-3]
Manager Mike Scioscia is known for his great patience in understanding the season is 162 games long and players are going to have ups and downs. Joe Saunders (6-8, 4.88) has been testing Scioscia’s resolve with a rollercoaster campaign. Saunders has been far more effective on the road (3.35 ERA vs. 6.18 at the Big A) and if he straightens out that part of game and pitches inside to RH hitters, he should have typical July.

Vazquez, Javier [10-5]
After a VERY choppy beginning, Vazquez (6-6, 5.16) is becoming the type of hurler GM Brian Cashman was hoping for. Vazquez has 3.78 ERA in last 10 starts and has better than 2-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio.

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

Duke, Zach [2-9]
It’s becoming more a mystery why Duke (3-8, 5.49) stays in the Pittsburgh rotation. Yes, the Pirates are brutal, but do you really need a starter that opposing batters are slugging .322 against? This Duke is a dog. (As in “Here Duke”)

Greinke, Zack [2-8]
Last year’s Cy Young winner has had a rough go of it this season, with a combination of Kansas City bullpen failings and Greinke (3-8, 3.72) trying to do too much. He’s been sharper of late and might improve on this month’s historical record with a little support.

Harden, Rich [4-9]
On the DL with gluteal strain and is scheduled for a few bullpen sessions to start the month.

Parra, Manny [3-7]
Strictly a back of the rotation guy, Parra (2-5, 4.12) was returned to the Milwaukee rotation after they had nowhere else to turn to. His 3.98 ERA as starter isn’t all that bad, however this southpaw is being crushed by lefty hitters, conceding .380 BA.

Wellemeyer, Todd [4-8]
The Giants fifth starter has been on the DL since June 11 and according to team reports is expected to return to club in mid-July.


Doug Upstone of 3Daily Winners contributed to this article.

Kansas City favored to win? You Bet

In studying the Wednesday baseball board, one pitching matchup stands out more than the rest this evening, at least by reputation if not 2010 results. Jake Peavy (7-5, 4.71 ERA) of the White Sox heads to the Kauffman Stadium mound to take on last year’s Cy Young award winner Zack Greinke (3-8, 3.72). Neither pitcher has enjoyed the kind of success they would have expected to this point of the season, however several signs point to each having a big second half.

Peavy is also a Cy Young winner, having earned that honor in 2007 at San Diego. In his first full season with Chicago in the American League, Peavy’s had a difficult adjustment after pitching in Death Valley (Petco Park) and moving to U.S. Cellular Field. The right-hander really struggled to start the year with 5.90 ERA in his first dozen starts (4-5), but has caught fire recently. In his last three outings (coincidently against National League teams), Peavy has been domineering with 0.78 ERA, permitting 12 hits in 23 innings.

Greinke also has found trouble this season. The 26-year old righty started the year throwing well enough to win, but the bullpen was blowing leads or tied games and Grenike didn’t earn his first win until May 13, and started to press from that point forward. As he admittedly tried to throw a perfect pitch on each toss, he made more mistakes, not less and strikeouts went down and base hits allowed went up.

After being rocked for nine hits and six runs in only five innings in a 7-3 loss at Minnesota, a 1-8 Greinke reevaluated his situation. With Kansas City again going nowhere in the standings with 33-45 record, Greinke decided to relax and just pitch to his ability and not create unreal expectations for him or the team. In his last three trips to the rubber, he has 2.63 ERA, striking out 23 while walking just two during that stretch.

“He’s put together three pretty good starts here in a row,” manager Ned Yost said after Greinke gave up two runs and seven hits over eight innings in recent 4-2 win over St. Louis. “He’s gaining velocity on his fastball. His command’s been a lot better. He’s really pitching terrific.”

Oddsmakers have the Royals favored for the just the 14th time this season (5-8, -5.5 units) at -115 over Chicago and not because K.C. is 4-12 with Grienke as starter.

In theory, Kansas City should be a better club. They are second in the American League in hitting with a .282 team batting average. Where the Royals falter is from a power outage, Kansas City needs too many base knocks to score, being 12th in home runs in the AL (53), which leads to pedestrian mark of ninth in runs scored in.

Nonetheless, we find a MLB system that overlooks the Royals’ shortcomings and makes them a likeable favorite.

Play On home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher, a hot hitting team, batting .290 or better over their last 20 games, against opponent with a tough starting pitcher, whose ERA less than 2.50 over his last three starts.

This baseball situation has come in 77.5 percent of the time the past five years at 62-18. This MLB system has been dynamic 6-0 this year and average run differential is 2.5 per contest. Yes it is true the Pale Hose have been playing outstanding baseball (12-2), but they are 6-20 in road games with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 1.50 the last five outings. Plus, the Royals offense doesn’t stay sour for long with 9-3 mark after scoring three runs or less in consecutive contests this season.

Take a good hard look at K.C; it might be a masterpiece, just like the barbeque sauce.