UCLA will undoubtedly try to slow the game down against Memphis and control the tempo, making it more to their liking. The Bruins will walk the ball up and try to force Memphis to play defense for longer stretches. It won’t work, coach John Calipari will breakdown Western Kentucky win and see what problems the Bruins had with Hilltoppers. Memphis’ better and longer athletes can be extremely effective in zone traps and he has them 100 percent committed on defensive end. Kevin Love can present problems from matchup standpoint, especially if he hits a few long shots. By the same token, he is not a quick leaper and Memphis frontcourt players can use athletic ability to tap balls or just go over the top. Coach Ben Howland has dilemma how to play Tigers guards. As Memphis proved against Texas, smaller guards can be extinguished. In the Final Four, underdogs like the Bruins off a pair of wins by 10 or more points are just 1-4 ATS in recent efforts. Tigers by 8.
Announcer Gus Johnson’s comment about 800-pound gorilla removed from Bill Self and Kansas back was poignant. The Jayhawks are unburdened with expectations now and will face teams will equal ability, making them underdog, were they could flourish. In the Jayhawks last seven underdog roles, they have cashed in six of them. The game with North Carolina has the making a classic; both teams shoot the ball extremely well, make three-point shots with great regularity and attack the rim off the bounce. Where Kansas has the edge is overall defense. Do they have a player like Taylor Hansbrough, no; however have the same or bettor at all other positions, with greater depth. Teams like the Tar Heels that have covered three consecutive games leading up to Final Four matchup are 6-20 ATS in this round. Kansas in a tight one by 2.
The Final Four – What if?
For the first time in the history of the NCAA Tournament, all four number one seeds have advanced to the Final Four. While it makes for great story telling when a Cinderella is fit for glass slipper to make the last group, they often flop in this situation like George Mason did in 2006. Instead, this year, we have the top four teams that finished one, two, three and four in the final Coaches’ poll of the regular season.
With the games presumed to be tightly contested or potentially blowouts because of just a few factors, here is a betting outlook at “what if” any of our four finalist play there best or worst.
What if North Carolina plays their best?
When North Carolina bends down, pulls up the shorts and defends, they are the best team in the country. Offensively, they are without peer, even among this contingent, scoring 89 points per game. Being at or near the top of the polls, they have made life easy for “square” bettors, being 23-10-2 against the spread. Tyler Hansbrough is the single hardest working player in the country and always gives the Tar Heels a shot to win. Having Ty Lawson back at point makes the North Carolina players better, allowing them to play to strengths instead of compensating in other areas they are not as skilled at. Their supremacy is shown by 13-1 ATS record versus excellent teams shooting 45 percent or higher with a defense holding opponents to 42 percent or lower this season.
What if Tar Heels are at their worst?
North Carolina is a better than 8-5 choice to cut down the nets Monday night, but that won’t happen if two of these three things happen. Hansbrough can be limited, have him catch the ball 2-3 feet outside comfort level and flash ball-side defender at him, forcing him to make quick decisions. If he looks to pass weak side, off ball defender has to be aware of passes that can be stolen. Hope Danny Green in particular and other shooters are off on three-pointers, never giving easy looks. When and if opposing team has lead, move the ball on offense and make Heels play defense for 25 or more seconds on multiple possessions, they will become impatient.
What if Kansas plays their best?
When Kansas is at there best, no team in this field is capable of beating them. They have the size to swallow up the lane and speed at all five positions to run and defend with anyone. The Jayhawks are one team that will be comfortable playing at a faster speed, like UNC or Memphis plays and is truly exceptional in creating dribble penetration to the rim. They make over 50 percent from the field and 40 percent from beyond the arc, plus hold opponents to 38.5 percent shooting on the road. The Jayhawks could be underdog twice in San Antonio and come away national champs. They are 6-1 ATS in this role and 5-0 ATS off win by less than six points.
What if Jayhawks are at their worst?
In the Bill Self era and even when Roy Williams was the coach in Lawrence, Kansas showed the capacity to tighten up in critical games and situations. The signs are more obvious than a Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays season outcome. The Jayhawks start jacking up jump shots, stand on offensive sets and two players hang their heads after opponents made baskets. If opposing team is dictating tempo, they become stagnant and are 1-7 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 77 or points a game this season. For all their balance, they don’t have reliable go-to player who wants to take big shot in close games. If Brandon Rush is so-so, Kansas is VERY ordinary in big games.
What if Memphis plays their best?
Combine aggressive defense, crashing the boards with authority, dribble penetration offensive AND the ability to make free throws, and Memphis at just under 3-1 odds is a load. Of any team in the Final Four, if this was round-robin, they would be most likely to win all three games when they are playing like they are right now. Derrick Rose has been the cherry on the top of the desert, which has made this Tigers team virtually unstoppable. Chris Douglas-Roberts is a complete player and the frontline is domineering over opponents in the paint. Coach Calipari teams are 57-33 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a game, after 15 or more contests in a season.
What if Tigers are at their worst?
Playing top level competition in December is not the same as being in a big moment like the Final Four. In only loss to Tennessee, Memphis players seemed more intent on showing they could make outside shots, than playing their game. In spite of exceptional talent coming off the bench, this is a team that is better with the sum of its parts. When Scott Wieland was booted from Stone Temple Pilots, the rest of the members thought they could go on. If Joey Dorsey gets into foul trouble, or Rose as freshman, becomes overwhelmed by the moment, the Tigers could fall to 1-7 ATS off a cover again. One last point, the free throw shooting is just a couple of clanks away from rearing ugly head.
What if UCLA plays their best?
UCLA is making third straight trip to Final Four and just over 3-1 odds to win it all. The Bruins have players’ familiar with the pressures of the media, scrutiny by the masses and the team with the most to prove, based on the last two seasons coming up short. UCLA is 8-2 ATS after scoring 75 points or more two straight games this season, proving they can play with the high octane teams in this field, yet can play lock down defense on the perimeter like they did against Xavier. Desire is one aspect that is impossible to measure in situations like this, nonetheless, juniors Darren Collison, Josh Shipp, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute have played prominent roles on this stage and have the big game experience that should allow them to shine. Like Memphis, coach Ben Howland believes Kevin Love was the one missing piece to complete circle of success.
What if Bruins are at their worst?
Go ahead, name productive backcourt player coming off the UCLA bench? If Collison has problems with scoring or turnovers, Bruins have immediate issues. Josh Shipp has been unhealthy in the tournament and his jump shot has shown it, hitting 33 percent in tourney’s first four games. Kevin Love has created matchup issues for opposing clubs with well-rounded skills, however the prowess of the frontcourts he will see will test his defensive skills as well, particularly his lack of cutting off drives on the baseline that could lead to baskets and him picking up cheap fouls. UCLA has to score 70 points; otherwise they are likely out with 2-10 ATS mark this 2007-08 campaign.
With the games presumed to be tightly contested or potentially blowouts because of just a few factors, here is a betting outlook at “what if” any of our four finalist play there best or worst.
What if North Carolina plays their best?
When North Carolina bends down, pulls up the shorts and defends, they are the best team in the country. Offensively, they are without peer, even among this contingent, scoring 89 points per game. Being at or near the top of the polls, they have made life easy for “square” bettors, being 23-10-2 against the spread. Tyler Hansbrough is the single hardest working player in the country and always gives the Tar Heels a shot to win. Having Ty Lawson back at point makes the North Carolina players better, allowing them to play to strengths instead of compensating in other areas they are not as skilled at. Their supremacy is shown by 13-1 ATS record versus excellent teams shooting 45 percent or higher with a defense holding opponents to 42 percent or lower this season.
What if Tar Heels are at their worst?
North Carolina is a better than 8-5 choice to cut down the nets Monday night, but that won’t happen if two of these three things happen. Hansbrough can be limited, have him catch the ball 2-3 feet outside comfort level and flash ball-side defender at him, forcing him to make quick decisions. If he looks to pass weak side, off ball defender has to be aware of passes that can be stolen. Hope Danny Green in particular and other shooters are off on three-pointers, never giving easy looks. When and if opposing team has lead, move the ball on offense and make Heels play defense for 25 or more seconds on multiple possessions, they will become impatient.
What if Kansas plays their best?
When Kansas is at there best, no team in this field is capable of beating them. They have the size to swallow up the lane and speed at all five positions to run and defend with anyone. The Jayhawks are one team that will be comfortable playing at a faster speed, like UNC or Memphis plays and is truly exceptional in creating dribble penetration to the rim. They make over 50 percent from the field and 40 percent from beyond the arc, plus hold opponents to 38.5 percent shooting on the road. The Jayhawks could be underdog twice in San Antonio and come away national champs. They are 6-1 ATS in this role and 5-0 ATS off win by less than six points.
What if Jayhawks are at their worst?
In the Bill Self era and even when Roy Williams was the coach in Lawrence, Kansas showed the capacity to tighten up in critical games and situations. The signs are more obvious than a Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays season outcome. The Jayhawks start jacking up jump shots, stand on offensive sets and two players hang their heads after opponents made baskets. If opposing team is dictating tempo, they become stagnant and are 1-7 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 77 or points a game this season. For all their balance, they don’t have reliable go-to player who wants to take big shot in close games. If Brandon Rush is so-so, Kansas is VERY ordinary in big games.
What if Memphis plays their best?
Combine aggressive defense, crashing the boards with authority, dribble penetration offensive AND the ability to make free throws, and Memphis at just under 3-1 odds is a load. Of any team in the Final Four, if this was round-robin, they would be most likely to win all three games when they are playing like they are right now. Derrick Rose has been the cherry on the top of the desert, which has made this Tigers team virtually unstoppable. Chris Douglas-Roberts is a complete player and the frontline is domineering over opponents in the paint. Coach Calipari teams are 57-33 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a game, after 15 or more contests in a season.
What if Tigers are at their worst?
Playing top level competition in December is not the same as being in a big moment like the Final Four. In only loss to Tennessee, Memphis players seemed more intent on showing they could make outside shots, than playing their game. In spite of exceptional talent coming off the bench, this is a team that is better with the sum of its parts. When Scott Wieland was booted from Stone Temple Pilots, the rest of the members thought they could go on. If Joey Dorsey gets into foul trouble, or Rose as freshman, becomes overwhelmed by the moment, the Tigers could fall to 1-7 ATS off a cover again. One last point, the free throw shooting is just a couple of clanks away from rearing ugly head.
What if UCLA plays their best?
UCLA is making third straight trip to Final Four and just over 3-1 odds to win it all. The Bruins have players’ familiar with the pressures of the media, scrutiny by the masses and the team with the most to prove, based on the last two seasons coming up short. UCLA is 8-2 ATS after scoring 75 points or more two straight games this season, proving they can play with the high octane teams in this field, yet can play lock down defense on the perimeter like they did against Xavier. Desire is one aspect that is impossible to measure in situations like this, nonetheless, juniors Darren Collison, Josh Shipp, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute have played prominent roles on this stage and have the big game experience that should allow them to shine. Like Memphis, coach Ben Howland believes Kevin Love was the one missing piece to complete circle of success.
What if Bruins are at their worst?
Go ahead, name productive backcourt player coming off the UCLA bench? If Collison has problems with scoring or turnovers, Bruins have immediate issues. Josh Shipp has been unhealthy in the tournament and his jump shot has shown it, hitting 33 percent in tourney’s first four games. Kevin Love has created matchup issues for opposing clubs with well-rounded skills, however the prowess of the frontcourts he will see will test his defensive skills as well, particularly his lack of cutting off drives on the baseline that could lead to baskets and him picking up cheap fouls. UCLA has to score 70 points; otherwise they are likely out with 2-10 ATS mark this 2007-08 campaign.
Betting Notes at 3DW
Stepped out today playing three NBA games, but truthfully confident each should come in.
NBA Plays
2* Washington - New York - Portland
The Wizards play is more about Milwaukee than Washington, as this article points out. New York is horrible, but Memphis an eight point favorite? The Lakers are struggling to cover spreads and each team is .500 in road/home situation, why not take the points.
Passing on baseball, as I'm very selective the first two weeks.
The Left Coast Connection just has a play on the Wizards tonight.
I've received very interesting information on a baseball bettor. He plays underdogs almost exclusively and has a track record I'm told is among the best in terms of units won. Unlike myself, he plays from day one. Tonight he has San Francisco, Houston and the White Sox, stay tuned.
NBA Plays
2* Washington - New York - Portland
The Wizards play is more about Milwaukee than Washington, as this article points out. New York is horrible, but Memphis an eight point favorite? The Lakers are struggling to cover spreads and each team is .500 in road/home situation, why not take the points.
Passing on baseball, as I'm very selective the first two weeks.
The Left Coast Connection just has a play on the Wizards tonight.
I've received very interesting information on a baseball bettor. He plays underdogs almost exclusively and has a track record I'm told is among the best in terms of units won. Unlike myself, he plays from day one. Tonight he has San Francisco, Houston and the White Sox, stay tuned.
Tuesday Sports Betting Info
Based on past post about playing against Boston, time to get started right now. The Red Sox are -132 road favorites and starter Dice-K Matsuzaka minimized the damage he could have incurred and escaped with two runs against the A's. Don't believe that will happen again and like the fact Oakland has won 7 of 12 against BoSox at home the last two years. Playing A's on the money line.
In the NBA, have three plays. Like Orlando, they well-rested and motivation shouldn't be a problem, facing the best team in the West in New Orleans. Also playing Houston, but no more than -2 points. Rockets are 13-4 ATS on the road off a road loss over the last two seasons.
Recap: 2* Houston - Orlando
In the NHL, playing the UNDER with Calgary/Edmonton, seeing they have done so 21 of last 29 times they met. Also in the hockey, red-hot Washington can catch Carolina in the Southeast Division, I think they do on home ice.
The Left Coast Connection has the following tonight:
MLB- Toronto
NBA - San Antonio
CBB- Ole Miss
I actually like the Blue Jays also, just wished they would have played yesterday. It seems like when you wait, the dynamics change. If the Rebels played better on the road, I'd been on them also.
In the NBA, have three plays. Like Orlando, they well-rested and motivation shouldn't be a problem, facing the best team in the West in New Orleans. Also playing Houston, but no more than -2 points. Rockets are 13-4 ATS on the road off a road loss over the last two seasons.
Recap: 2* Houston - Orlando
In the NHL, playing the UNDER with Calgary/Edmonton, seeing they have done so 21 of last 29 times they met. Also in the hockey, red-hot Washington can catch Carolina in the Southeast Division, I think they do on home ice.
The Left Coast Connection has the following tonight:
MLB- Toronto
NBA - San Antonio
CBB- Ole Miss
I actually like the Blue Jays also, just wished they would have played yesterday. It seems like when you wait, the dynamics change. If the Rebels played better on the road, I'd been on them also.
Early Baseball Betting Angle
Mentioned yesterday about a baseball wagering opportunity to consider. The Boston Red Sox are of course the defending World Series champions and have been dealt about as cruel a hand to start the season as any baseball team could. (Phil Hellmuth would be whining like crazy) By now you know they had to fly to Japan to play two regular season games against Oakland, along with putting on clinics and other things when they visited.
They flew back to Los Angeles to play exhibition games (that makes sense) against the Dodgers, before flying up the coast to finish A's "home" series on April 1st and 2nd. (This is no joke and it gets better) Granted, in order to get home they have to fly East, but to Toronto for weekend series? For those keeping score, that's three countries in 10 days.
After off day on April 7, it is three games with Detroit, who figures to compete with BoSox for top honors in the AL, followed by three with the hated Yankees. If that weren't enough, a brief four game trip to two cities ...................just two of the teams that were in the American League postseason, Cleveland and those fun-loving Yankees.
That is three countries and seven cities (including L.A.) in 24 days. Even Tampa Bay would have reason to complain, let alone the defending champions of the baseball.
This all leads to betting against the Red Sox, through no fault of their own, especially when they are favored in this time period. It would make sense they would be overvalued as champs, and having to play this tough of schedule would be challenging enough. Throw in all the travel, thanks to Bud the Commish and this appears to be money-making proposition playing against the Red Sox.
They flew back to Los Angeles to play exhibition games (that makes sense) against the Dodgers, before flying up the coast to finish A's "home" series on April 1st and 2nd. (This is no joke and it gets better) Granted, in order to get home they have to fly East, but to Toronto for weekend series? For those keeping score, that's three countries in 10 days.
After off day on April 7, it is three games with Detroit, who figures to compete with BoSox for top honors in the AL, followed by three with the hated Yankees. If that weren't enough, a brief four game trip to two cities ...................just two of the teams that were in the American League postseason, Cleveland and those fun-loving Yankees.
That is three countries and seven cities (including L.A.) in 24 days. Even Tampa Bay would have reason to complain, let alone the defending champions of the baseball.
This all leads to betting against the Red Sox, through no fault of their own, especially when they are favored in this time period. It would make sense they would be overvalued as champs, and having to play this tough of schedule would be challenging enough. Throw in all the travel, thanks to Bud the Commish and this appears to be money-making proposition playing against the Red Sox.
Final Four Dance Card is Filled Today
In the end, Louisville made three critical turnovers after tying the game at 59 and North Carolina lathered in the embrace of a pro-Tar Heels crowd to beat Louisville by 10. If I made a mistake in taking the Cardinals, it was underestimating the impact of the crowd. I was well aware UNC was 24-1 in NCAA tournament games played in the state of North Carolina and 8-0 in NCAA tournament games played in Charlotte. My numbers had a close game and in truth, even though I lost, it was not a crushing defeat, I just lost believing I had the correct side.
I'm playing Texas as a 2* today against Memphis. I don't believe the Tigers will make 74 percent again from the free throw line and like the fact the Longhorns are 9-2 ATS after leading their last three games by five or more points at the half. Throw in the fact, #2 seeds are 6-2 ATS over #1 seeds in Elite 8 games since 1998.
The Left Coast Connection has 81 percent of members picking Texas also. Davidson is not official play; however is picked by 66 percent of this group.
Baseball starts here in the States (doesn't that seem stupid) tonight, will be good to have my favorite sport get going. Check in tomorrow, I'll have something to look for in early MLB action.
I'm playing Texas as a 2* today against Memphis. I don't believe the Tigers will make 74 percent again from the free throw line and like the fact the Longhorns are 9-2 ATS after leading their last three games by five or more points at the half. Throw in the fact, #2 seeds are 6-2 ATS over #1 seeds in Elite 8 games since 1998.
The Left Coast Connection has 81 percent of members picking Texas also. Davidson is not official play; however is picked by 66 percent of this group.
Baseball starts here in the States (doesn't that seem stupid) tonight, will be good to have my favorite sport get going. Check in tomorrow, I'll have something to look for in early MLB action.
Elite 8 Saturday
Four blowouts last night, all equally impressive. Stephen Curry is such a good shooter and scorer for Davidson, yet the defense was the got my attention. For anyone that is a Wisconsin fan, you have to wonder why Bo Ryan was letting Brian Butch at 7'0, chuck up bricks from the top of the three point line. Sure he can make them from time to time, but his with size and strength advantage, do you really want him out there?
Today, really like Louisville with the points, thus I'll make them 3* with a chance to win outright. In the other game, would like to take Xavier; however off overtime game and against UCLA experience, will pass on star rated play and just suggest play on Musketeers.
For the tournament now 11-8-1.
The Left Coast Connection is 12-9-1 for the tourney and has the Cardinals today and split evenly on UCLA and Xavier.
In the NBA they are all over Denver.
Good Luck today.
Today, really like Louisville with the points, thus I'll make them 3* with a chance to win outright. In the other game, would like to take Xavier; however off overtime game and against UCLA experience, will pass on star rated play and just suggest play on Musketeers.
For the tournament now 11-8-1.
The Left Coast Connection is 12-9-1 for the tourney and has the Cardinals today and split evenly on UCLA and Xavier.
In the NBA they are all over Denver.
Good Luck today.
Outsourcing Baseball
Neglected to mention I thought it was a sad commentary on major league baseball to play opening games of the season in Japan. It's no secret the reason why, purely profit and getting product into more places, at whatever the cost. It was even more ridiculous the current World Series champion Boston Red Sox had to go. If you are a fan of the Red Sox, the game started at just after 6:00 AM, meaning for most, they had to choose between work or watching their beloved team. Stupid is the only word that works.
Can you imagine the opening of the NFL season being in some foreign land with an weekday AM start time for the Giants this upcoming fall.
Can you imagine the opening of the NFL season being in some foreign land with an weekday AM start time for the Giants this upcoming fall.
NCAA Basketball Plays
Finally a solid winning day from yours truly with Louisville, Xavier and North Carolina- UNDER all coming thru Thursday. That raises NCAA record to 10-8-1 against the spread. Not great, however beats the alternative. Today just one play stands out, with Texas a 3* selection. The quickness matchup really favors the Longhorns and their defense has been impressive for a large number of games.
For many people, this might not be a big deal, yet I thought it was important. In common opponents, Texas is 3-1 outscoring foes by 6.8 PPG. Stanford on the other hand was 2-3, outscoring same opponents by less then a point per game.
The Left Coast Connection also rebounded and is 11-8-1 in the tournament. Tonight they have Memphis and Wisconsin as there plays.
Good Luck tonight!
For many people, this might not be a big deal, yet I thought it was important. In common opponents, Texas is 3-1 outscoring foes by 6.8 PPG. Stanford on the other hand was 2-3, outscoring same opponents by less then a point per game.
The Left Coast Connection also rebounded and is 11-8-1 in the tournament. Tonight they have Memphis and Wisconsin as there plays.
Good Luck tonight!
With two rounds in the books for the NCAA Tournament, it is time to understand what we have witnessed thus far as bettors. While the excitement of close games and underdogs has grabbed our attention, favorites have ruled this tournament with 32-17, 65.3 percent record. The Under on the totals side has been the play in this event for a number of years, not this time, as oddsmakers adjustments and coaches taking more aggressive approaches has the Over 28-19-2.
College basketball this season had two conferences that stood out, the Pac-10 and the Big East. These two leagues have the most representatives in the Sweet 16, providing credence to how they performed all year. At the same time, the rest of the college basketball landscape had a great deal of balance, which was also shown in the fact that eight other conferences have at least one entry still alive. In what was widely regarded as the year of the freshman, only two that gained tremendous notoriety are still playing, Memphis’ Derrick Rose and UCLA’s Kevin Love.
The four top seeds all advanced, with Kansas and North Carolina both covering their two contests, UCLA splitting at 1-1 and Memphis looking shaky, not unexpectedly at the free throw line with 0-2 ATS mark. Kansas beat handled what many believed was an underrated UNLV team. The Tar Heels looked Final Four ready in two appearances, destroying two unworthy opponents. UCLA was fortunate to beat a game Texas A&M squad and if anyone wonders if Aggies Donald Sloan’s shot attempt was altered, note picture of Slaon's shooting hand. While on the Bruins, has Josh Shipp’s ship sailed? If John Calipari’s club were to win the national championship, they might have to go down as one of the all-time great teams, having only one defeat and shooting free throws like they had to do so while balancing Nike ball on there heads while attempting shots.
West Virginia and Davidson were thoroughly impressive in knocking out #2’s Duke and Georgetown respectively. The Coach K’s losing was just a matter of time. It is official; the Blue Devils no longer have the elite players to be a Final Four contender every year. Oh sure, they play hard, give it there all, they just aren’t next level players. Maybe a Stephen Curry would have helped Duke, because he was the singular player of the weekend. Offensively, he was unstoppable and unflappable in the second half of both games. What was a treat was to see how diverse his offensive skill set actually is, with cross-over drives to the basket that were ankle breakers, which could have left laundry behind.
Pittsburgh and San Diego finally wore out, while Michigan State has gotten a new lease on life and Western Kentucky’s three guard trio of seniors rival any team still playing. What tenacity the Hilltoppers also play with.
Defensive demons Wisconsin and Washington State sent offensive-minded teams Kansas State and Notre Dame packing. In watching those games, if those teams had played each other 50 times, the Wildcats and Irish MIGHT have won on 50th attempt.
Stanford and Tennessee persevered, for the most part making one more shot than their opponents, each looking vulnerable moving ahead. A dunce cap and a pat on the back for Stanford’s coach Trent Johnson. You have to be a complete idiot to get tossed out of a NCAA Tournament game, as the officials give coaches plenty of leeway. However, in post-game interview with Jay Bilas, he was humble and contrite in understanding what he had done, fully understanding if Brook Lopez doesn’t make spectacular hook shot, he will be buried in blogs and articles everywhere.
On to Thursday, for more wagering opportunities, as linemakers have shaded underdogs in opening lines based on history.
Sunday Tournament Action
Just can't get started in this year's tournament, still looking to close strong. Really could kick myself for taking Duke yesterday, since when I was watching the Blue Devils struggle to beat Belmont, I turned to the guy I was with and said this team is finished. Unfortunately, it was one of those instances of outsmarting myself, thinking this was a Duke team of old, it certainly was not.
Anyway, here are today's winning plays.
2* San Diego - Mississippi State- Butler - Okla/Louisv. UNDER
The Left Coast Connection is still showing a profit at 7-5 and has these plays today.
Top - (tie) Georgetown - Texas
The Rest - North Carolina - Memphis - Okla/Louisv. UNDER
Happy Easter and Good Luck
Anyway, here are today's winning plays.
2* San Diego - Mississippi State- Butler - Okla/Louisv. UNDER
The Left Coast Connection is still showing a profit at 7-5 and has these plays today.
Top - (tie) Georgetown - Texas
The Rest - North Carolina - Memphis - Okla/Louisv. UNDER
Happy Easter and Good Luck
NCAA Selections
All right, came back with 2-0 day and 5-5 in the tournament, looking for bigger and better things. Today I have 4* on Wisconsin and 3* on Duke.
The Left Coast Connection had another winning day and is 6-4 to date after the first two days.
Today they have:
Top Play: Duke
The Rest - Wisconsin
Marquette just missed making the 75 percent grade.
Good Luck Today.
The Left Coast Connection had another winning day and is 6-4 to date after the first two days.
Today they have:
Top Play: Duke
The Rest - Wisconsin
Marquette just missed making the 75 percent grade.
Good Luck Today.
Day Two NCAA Thoughts
If you had spent all day and all night in Ybor City among the local bars and restaurants and came home to turn on SportsCenter, you couldn’t have imagined that FOUR double digit seeds would have pulled four outright upsets in nearby St. Pete’s. Western Kentucky couldn’t miss and Drake didn’t get back on defense for the first 27 minutes. Drake’s furious rally spoke to there courage, however Lady Luck was fickle to the Bulldogs when Ty Rogers drained about a 30-footer in rhythm for the win. Next was Connecticut as 12-point favorite, who played genuinely uninspired basketball against San Diego, who just wanted it more and got. That was coach Jim Calhoun’s first, first round exit as a Huskies coach.
Vanderbilt played just like UConn, deciding defense was something for others to do. The Commodores reputation as strictly a home court team is richly deserved. Still haven’t figured out what happened to Clemson in loss to Villanova. They played the last 20 minutes like they were having panic attacks. For those that believe Memphis can overcome its free throwing shooting to win six games in the tournament, the Tigers of Clemson proved how difficult that can be.
During the tournament, the best officials are supposed to be used. What is disturbing is they like to be noticed on TV. The rash of charging calls over the first two days was mind-boggling. Maybe it is no different than any other game or possibly with so many games to watch and choose from, it just seems this way. But tighter officiating does not mean its better. College basketball has to go to NBA half circle in the lane. WAY too many players in the college game run up under players, under the basket and collapse on contact. A player can’t get a running start towards the hoop without somebody running underneath, forcing officials to make calls. Another solution is old-school basketball, if a player undercuts the player taking it to the rim, fall right on top of him with full body weight. Then see if he tries it again.
Do you think every ACC coach and recruiter is kicking themselves again after seeing Stephen Curry torch Gonzaga for 40? Indiana went away like dropped call after Sampson phone-gate. The university, as reported by Jim Nantz and Billy Packer, had announced they were starting a search committee to find a new coach. That is shear brilliance as your team starts playing in the NCAA Tournament. The school literally was saying they are writing off interim (very interim) head coach Dan Dakich and looking to put this year’s team behind them. The Hoosiers played just like what the school thought of them.
Betting numbers update:
On Friday, favorites were 10-6 and 8-8 ATS. Higher seeds were also 8-8 against the spread, with the Over 10-6. This brings the tournament total to favorites 22-11 ATS, higher seeds 20-12 ATS and the OVER 20-13.
Vanderbilt played just like UConn, deciding defense was something for others to do. The Commodores reputation as strictly a home court team is richly deserved. Still haven’t figured out what happened to Clemson in loss to Villanova. They played the last 20 minutes like they were having panic attacks. For those that believe Memphis can overcome its free throwing shooting to win six games in the tournament, the Tigers of Clemson proved how difficult that can be.
During the tournament, the best officials are supposed to be used. What is disturbing is they like to be noticed on TV. The rash of charging calls over the first two days was mind-boggling. Maybe it is no different than any other game or possibly with so many games to watch and choose from, it just seems this way. But tighter officiating does not mean its better. College basketball has to go to NBA half circle in the lane. WAY too many players in the college game run up under players, under the basket and collapse on contact. A player can’t get a running start towards the hoop without somebody running underneath, forcing officials to make calls. Another solution is old-school basketball, if a player undercuts the player taking it to the rim, fall right on top of him with full body weight. Then see if he tries it again.
Do you think every ACC coach and recruiter is kicking themselves again after seeing Stephen Curry torch Gonzaga for 40? Indiana went away like dropped call after Sampson phone-gate. The university, as reported by Jim Nantz and Billy Packer, had announced they were starting a search committee to find a new coach. That is shear brilliance as your team starts playing in the NCAA Tournament. The school literally was saying they are writing off interim (very interim) head coach Dan Dakich and looking to put this year’s team behind them. The Hoosiers played just like what the school thought of them.
Betting numbers update:
On Friday, favorites were 10-6 and 8-8 ATS. Higher seeds were also 8-8 against the spread, with the Over 10-6. This brings the tournament total to favorites 22-11 ATS, higher seeds 20-12 ATS and the OVER 20-13.
NCAA Tournament Evening thoughts
In the evening session, hats off to Belmont, it would have been great to see Duke go down. This is a team that appears to be exhausted, playing on fumes. They gutted out win; however can they possibly come back on short notice against West Virginia on less than 48 hours notice? The Mountaineers played a very good game in committing only eight turnovers versus over-rated Arizona. The nodding heads from Tempe, AR were saying we would have played better than the there neighbors to the south.
Have to say was surprised USC didn’t play with more determination in loss to Kansas State. Coach Frank Martin did a masterful job in having his Wildcat team prepared, changing defenses and running baseline cuts for easy baskets. His intelligence in protecting Michael Beasley was notable, as was the 6’10 freshman’s play in staying out of further foul trouble.
Bobby Knight had suggested raising the field to 128 teams, which in theory at least makes sense to eliminate minor squabbling about who belongs in tournament. After seeing the efforts of Mississippi Valley State, Winthrop, George Mason and for the most part Cal-State Fullerton, the idea seems pointless.
Numbers to chew on:
*Favorites were 14-2 and 13-3 ATS
*The higher seeds were 13-3 and 12-4 ATS.
*The numbers vary from place to place; however here I have the OVER 9-7 and have seen it listed as 10-6 in other locales. Hats off to the oddmakers, who were within two points on seven of the games played.
Have to say was surprised USC didn’t play with more determination in loss to Kansas State. Coach Frank Martin did a masterful job in having his Wildcat team prepared, changing defenses and running baseline cuts for easy baskets. His intelligence in protecting Michael Beasley was notable, as was the 6’10 freshman’s play in staying out of further foul trouble.
Bobby Knight had suggested raising the field to 128 teams, which in theory at least makes sense to eliminate minor squabbling about who belongs in tournament. After seeing the efforts of Mississippi Valley State, Winthrop, George Mason and for the most part Cal-State Fullerton, the idea seems pointless.
Numbers to chew on:
*Favorites were 14-2 and 13-3 ATS
*The higher seeds were 13-3 and 12-4 ATS.
*The numbers vary from place to place; however here I have the OVER 9-7 and have seen it listed as 10-6 in other locales. Hats off to the oddmakers, who were within two points on seven of the games played.
Round One Afternoon Thoughts
Xavier decided to play with 15 minutes to go in the game and overwhelmed an obviously less talented Georgia team. Once the passion button was pushed, the Musketeers rolled. One note on this game, with Bulldogs up nine at the half, Clark Kellogg and Seth Davis were saying Georgia attacks the basket and plays good defense. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Georgia win FOUR SEC games all season! Now they are talking about them, like they are a good team, Please!
Hate to say this, but Kent State choked under the pressure of the tournament. Shooting 20 percent with 15 turnovers in the first half, WOW! UNLV did nothing unique or play stupendously, they just took what the Golden Flashes literally gave them.
Temple showed little emotion and never got back on defense. Oral Roberts, Cornell, Portland State and Baylor were simply outclassed.
The favorites and higher seeds won all eight games and were 7-1 ATS. Honestly rather boring, but good for chalk players.
Hate to say this, but Kent State choked under the pressure of the tournament. Shooting 20 percent with 15 turnovers in the first half, WOW! UNLV did nothing unique or play stupendously, they just took what the Golden Flashes literally gave them.
Temple showed little emotion and never got back on defense. Oral Roberts, Cornell, Portland State and Baylor were simply outclassed.
The favorites and higher seeds won all eight games and were 7-1 ATS. Honestly rather boring, but good for chalk players.
Consensus Plays from Top Players
The Left Coast Connection was 18-12, 60 percent during the conference tournaments. Here are their consensus plays.
Top - Xavier
The Rest - Notre Dame - Oral Roberts - Kent State - Marquette.
They were split down the middle on Bay/Pur, Wash. St/Winthrop, Mich. St./Temple and USC/K-State.
Top - Xavier
The Rest - Notre Dame - Oral Roberts - Kent State - Marquette.
They were split down the middle on Bay/Pur, Wash. St/Winthrop, Mich. St./Temple and USC/K-State.
NCAA Tournament Picks
After a so-so regular season and a less than adequate conference tournament campaign, it is time to cash in. In all honesty, I'm feeling very confident. I'm more prepared then I have been in a couple of years. This year, if I lose, no regrets, I studied and prepared as well as I could, but really don't see that happening.
Here are picks:
4* Xavier
3* Kent State -BYU -USC
2* West Virginia - Purdue - Temple - Oral Roberts
Good luck to you today!
Here are picks:
4* Xavier
3* Kent State -BYU -USC
2* West Virginia - Purdue - Temple - Oral Roberts
Good luck to you today!
Betting System for First Round NCAA Tournament
The NCAA Basketball Tournament clock is ticking to start yet another exciting and thrilling event. By now, you have filled out your brackets and it is time to get down to serious business. Linemakers from all the wagering outlets in Las Vegas and the state of Nevada have diligently put out numbers designed to attract action on both sides, to gobble up the “juice”. This time of year, no funny business, no theories about oddsmakers setting traps, this is wagering in its purest form, pitting the college basketball bettor against those making the numbers, going mano-a- mano.
In order to pick winners in the first round, you need solid information. It is often difficult to gain much of an edge since they seldom have played similar opponents and can have vastly different conference power ratings. Thus the question becomes what can I do to give myself the best chance to win over the first 32 games of the tournament?
What I have done for the last 18 years is find the records of all D-1 schools exactly one month before the bids are announced. This year that would be the games played from the morning of February 18 to present. This is the center piece this system, because once the bids are announced, that’s when it is time to go into action. Whether you make in a spreadsheet or do the old school paper and pencil, this is what a matchup should look like in a hypothetical situation.
Kansas State 18-6 22-11 4-3 3rd 3rd lost in semis
We. Kentucky 21-5 27-6 6-1 1st 1st 1st
Compare the records of the teams that made the tourney from a month ago vs. what they are now that they have been selected to participate in the field of 65. (The first two numbers) Determine what the difference is for their record over the last month. (Third number) Take their previous position in the league standings and once again compare them to what they were at the end of the regular season. (The fourth and fifth numbers) The last piece of this exercise is how they finished in their conference tourney. (The last number)
In this contest, we have a power conference team from the Big 12 in Kansas State, who despite some big victories this season, has been rather ordinary to close the season, against Western Kentucky who has sustained exceptional play all season and took care of business in Sun Belt post-season tournament. Kansas State’s problems have revolved around the lack of consistent guard play, leaving Michael Beasley to carry the Wildcats. For Western Kentucky, they have three senior guards, which is a tremendous asset, especially come tournament time. In this scenario, K-State is higher seed and favored to beat Hilltoppers, yet are only 3-8 against the spread in last 11 contests. Coincidently, Western Kentucky closed the season 5-0 and 7-3 ATS. Here we would have a live underdog playing extremely well, against a perceived power with outstanding individual talent, who seems to be slipping, offering value as dog.
Here is another example; in this case we have two bigger name teams in what could be viewed as a 6 vs.11 first round matchup, with each finishing season differently.
Michigan State 20-5 25-8 5-3 2nd 4th lost in semis
Kentucky 13-10 20-12 8-2 4th 2nd lost in finals
The Spartans don’t look too bad record wise; however they have slowly been slipping since the beginning of February. Kentucky on the other hand has come on like gang-busters and is easy on the eyes, like one of their biggest supporters Ashley Judd. Michigan State would be expected to be a smaller favorite, with the Wildcats having excellent potential with the points or as a money line play.
In the 18 years of using this system, I have had only three losing opening rounds, including last year, when it was chalk city. If this sounds like bragging, it is not. Just like going through the FoxSheets on a daily basis or reviewing the free material on the website, the hard work pays off because of what has been accomplished all year. What this could do for you is turn a losing day into a profitable one, or take a good day and make it one you’ll never forget.
After careful study, here are the teams in the first round that fit this particular system: USC, Temple, BYU, San Diego, West Virginia and Xavier. Each has a decisive edge over opponent and should be given consideration. Please understand this is not the sole reason to play any of these teams listed, just a solid track record of success from a rather simplistic system.
I wrote this article for StatFox.com.
In order to pick winners in the first round, you need solid information. It is often difficult to gain much of an edge since they seldom have played similar opponents and can have vastly different conference power ratings. Thus the question becomes what can I do to give myself the best chance to win over the first 32 games of the tournament?
What I have done for the last 18 years is find the records of all D-1 schools exactly one month before the bids are announced. This year that would be the games played from the morning of February 18 to present. This is the center piece this system, because once the bids are announced, that’s when it is time to go into action. Whether you make in a spreadsheet or do the old school paper and pencil, this is what a matchup should look like in a hypothetical situation.
Kansas State 18-6 22-11 4-3 3rd 3rd lost in semis
We. Kentucky 21-5 27-6 6-1 1st 1st 1st
Compare the records of the teams that made the tourney from a month ago vs. what they are now that they have been selected to participate in the field of 65. (The first two numbers) Determine what the difference is for their record over the last month. (Third number) Take their previous position in the league standings and once again compare them to what they were at the end of the regular season. (The fourth and fifth numbers) The last piece of this exercise is how they finished in their conference tourney. (The last number)
In this contest, we have a power conference team from the Big 12 in Kansas State, who despite some big victories this season, has been rather ordinary to close the season, against Western Kentucky who has sustained exceptional play all season and took care of business in Sun Belt post-season tournament. Kansas State’s problems have revolved around the lack of consistent guard play, leaving Michael Beasley to carry the Wildcats. For Western Kentucky, they have three senior guards, which is a tremendous asset, especially come tournament time. In this scenario, K-State is higher seed and favored to beat Hilltoppers, yet are only 3-8 against the spread in last 11 contests. Coincidently, Western Kentucky closed the season 5-0 and 7-3 ATS. Here we would have a live underdog playing extremely well, against a perceived power with outstanding individual talent, who seems to be slipping, offering value as dog.
Here is another example; in this case we have two bigger name teams in what could be viewed as a 6 vs.11 first round matchup, with each finishing season differently.
Michigan State 20-5 25-8 5-3 2nd 4th lost in semis
Kentucky 13-10 20-12 8-2 4th 2nd lost in finals
The Spartans don’t look too bad record wise; however they have slowly been slipping since the beginning of February. Kentucky on the other hand has come on like gang-busters and is easy on the eyes, like one of their biggest supporters Ashley Judd. Michigan State would be expected to be a smaller favorite, with the Wildcats having excellent potential with the points or as a money line play.
In the 18 years of using this system, I have had only three losing opening rounds, including last year, when it was chalk city. If this sounds like bragging, it is not. Just like going through the FoxSheets on a daily basis or reviewing the free material on the website, the hard work pays off because of what has been accomplished all year. What this could do for you is turn a losing day into a profitable one, or take a good day and make it one you’ll never forget.
After careful study, here are the teams in the first round that fit this particular system: USC, Temple, BYU, San Diego, West Virginia and Xavier. Each has a decisive edge over opponent and should be given consideration. Please understand this is not the sole reason to play any of these teams listed, just a solid track record of success from a rather simplistic system.
I wrote this article for StatFox.com.
Betting Future Winner of NCAA Tournament
The field of 65 is set; you like many people have filled out numerous brackets in a variety of pools and now it is time to start breaking down the various first round matchups, looking for edges and spotting those potential early round exits by favorites. Having the benefit of using the point spread helps in many cases and mustering up the courage on money line dogs is another way to make hard currency when betting college basketball. But what about home run wager, picking the winner of the entire NCAA Tournament, which can offer a decent payout depending on the winner.
Even with the large field, most years, around 12 teams have legitimate chance of winning six games in a row. Long shots are great; however they don’t bring home the cash, betting futures. In the last decade, only teams seeded 1, 2 or 3 have emerged as champions. Lute Olson’s 1997 Arizona Wildcats were the last team that was not among the top tier of teams as a four-seed. In the 1980’s, we had Danny Manning and the Miracles in 1988 as a sixth-seed and Jim Valvano’s incredible stretch in 1983 with North Carolina State.
Each year, the litany of ways to select a champion is trotted out. Among the various aspects that are all noteworthy are veteran players, point guard play and defensive shooting percentages. Each in there own right holds value and opens the window to opportunity.
Jimmy Dykes, an analyst for ESPN, in February introduced another process, to help pick the national champion of college basketball. Dykes played for the Arkansas Razorbacks basketball team and graduated in 1985. He has been an assistant coach at schools like Kentucky, Oklahoma State and his alma mater, along with being a scout for Seattle in the NBA.
Dykes is teamed with Brad Nessler and has been given the green light this season to be more personality-oriented and has had very interesting observations throughout the season. He went back researched what characteristics make up a national champ. Here is his list and what has occurred.
7 of 7 past champions had a 10 or more games winning streak
18 of 20 past champions had NBA player 6’8 or taller
19 of 20 past champions had NBA guard
7 of 10 past champions won conference tournament
It is important to understand what each of these points mean. First, if a team has a long winning streak of 10 or more, to whatever degree, they must be a good team. This season, 21 teams that made the field of 65, have won this many games in a row. Some teams could schedule there way into this many wins consecutively; however in reviewing this list, you see this consists primarily of college basketballs hierarchy.
Number of consecutive wins:
26 – Memphis
21- Drake
20 – Davidson, Kansas
18- North Carolina
16- Vanderbilt, Cornell
14- Washington State
13- Indiana
12 – Duke
11- Xavier, Texas, Purdue, Michigan State, Tennessee and Western Kentucky
10- Clemson, Notre Dame, Connecticut, Wisconsin and South Alabama
Absent from this list are such notable teams like UCLA, Georgetown, Louisville and Stanford, all teams that will be in anyone’s discussion of eventual champions of college hoops.
The next two points have to do with one of the key ingredients and really why the higher seeds have dominated this tournament, talent. Dykes had the revisionist ability to look back and see if different players had the skill and ability to play at the next level. For our purposes, we can only surmise what looks to be accurate, without having full knowledge.
Having a taller player with NBA ability allows teams to score points in the paint and likely grab more offensive and defensive rebounds. Having a guard with professional basketball ability, means any or all of three things can happen. The guard can create dribble penetration to either score or set-up teammates to score. He has the ability to take over games at this level, by individual play and can win a game or two literally by himself, when the team is struggling.
In reviewing above list, Memphis has Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose in the backcourt. It would be a shock, if both don’t play at the next level. John Dorsey and Robert Dozier should make somebody’s roster.
The next two teams of this group are Drake and Davidson, who have talented, smart college players who have a wonderful understanding of how to play the game. Josh Young and Missouri Valley player of the year Adam Emmenecker are splendid talents, that don’t have the size to make it in NBA. The Bulldogs have unique frontcourt college players, which doesn’t transfer well when moving up. Davidson has a player of pedigree in Stephen Curry, whose dad Dell, played a long time in the NBA. The younger Curry has NBA-range, but is frail looking as 6’2 or 6’3 shooting guard.
Kansas, like Memphis, has three NBA players on the roster, in guard Brandon Rush and forwards Darrell Arthur and Darnell Jackson, both 6’8 or taller. Even Sasha Kahn is being talked about as a nice backup center at the next level. North Carolina is next and has bountiful talent, yet in truth, is border-line in using this assessment. Tyler Hansbrough will play in NBA, but the guard position is more questionable. Wayne Ellington, Marcus Ginyard, and Danny Green all show moments of brilliance, buts does it transfer out of college basketball? Ty Lawson is phenomenal talent, nonetheless is listed as 5’11. Ellington is a very good shooter and will in all likelihood be NBA player. Don’t misunderstand, North Carolina is odds on favorite, it is just using aforementioned criteria.
In breaking down many of the other clubs, most come short. Cornell has exceptional Ivy League talent. Xavier, Michigan State, Clemson, Western Kentucky, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Duke and South Alabama all have one very good player and several that are above average collegiate players.
Tennessee, Indiana and Connecticut all have substantial NBA-type players. For the Vols, it is Wayne Chism near the basket and more likely JuJuan Smith than Chris Lofton at guard position. The Hoosiers have D.J. White, who had superb senior season and freshman Eric Gordon, who should stay at IU for another year of seasoning. UConn has ever-improving center Hasheem Thabeet and guard A.J. Price, who past the eyeball test.
A few teams are very close conceptually like Vanderbilt, Texas and Washington State. The Commodores have Shan Foster, who can shoot lights out and A.J. Ogilvy in the paint, yet does anyone really believe Vandy could win six games away from Nashville? Texas has explosive A.J. Augustin and 6’10 Connor Atchley, whose stock is rising, still he is fourth scoring option most games. With the Cougars style of play, it is difficult to properly assess if Kyle Weaver and Aron Baynes are next level talents. If one wants optimistic view, go with yes, but can you trust team that averages then 67.1 points a game to put together six game winning streak?
Moving on, 70 percent of the teams that have a national championship the last decade won there conference tournament. Interestingly enough, the teams with the five longest winning streaks in the country during the regular season all won there post-season tournaments. A few years ago, a belief was floating around; losing in postseason tourneys was a good thing, allowing teams to rest more. Yet as we see, the power of momentum carries far greater importance, especially when it coming to cutting down the nets and be given the trophy by Jim Nantz and Billy Packer.
The ground rules are in place, the field is set, what teams meet all the criteria to be solid wagers to be crowned champions? There are three teams that stand above the rest and they are all numbers one seeds. They are North Carolina, Kansas and Memphis. Each has the long winning streak, each has the proper talent both inside and outside and each won conference tournament. The most recent odds available have North Carolina 4-1, Kansas 5-1, and Memphis 6-1.
Hope this helps you make a greater evaluation as to what teams could be the NCAA national basketball champions. Good Luck.
Even with the large field, most years, around 12 teams have legitimate chance of winning six games in a row. Long shots are great; however they don’t bring home the cash, betting futures. In the last decade, only teams seeded 1, 2 or 3 have emerged as champions. Lute Olson’s 1997 Arizona Wildcats were the last team that was not among the top tier of teams as a four-seed. In the 1980’s, we had Danny Manning and the Miracles in 1988 as a sixth-seed and Jim Valvano’s incredible stretch in 1983 with North Carolina State.
Each year, the litany of ways to select a champion is trotted out. Among the various aspects that are all noteworthy are veteran players, point guard play and defensive shooting percentages. Each in there own right holds value and opens the window to opportunity.
Jimmy Dykes, an analyst for ESPN, in February introduced another process, to help pick the national champion of college basketball. Dykes played for the Arkansas Razorbacks basketball team and graduated in 1985. He has been an assistant coach at schools like Kentucky, Oklahoma State and his alma mater, along with being a scout for Seattle in the NBA.
Dykes is teamed with Brad Nessler and has been given the green light this season to be more personality-oriented and has had very interesting observations throughout the season. He went back researched what characteristics make up a national champ. Here is his list and what has occurred.
7 of 7 past champions had a 10 or more games winning streak
18 of 20 past champions had NBA player 6’8 or taller
19 of 20 past champions had NBA guard
7 of 10 past champions won conference tournament
It is important to understand what each of these points mean. First, if a team has a long winning streak of 10 or more, to whatever degree, they must be a good team. This season, 21 teams that made the field of 65, have won this many games in a row. Some teams could schedule there way into this many wins consecutively; however in reviewing this list, you see this consists primarily of college basketballs hierarchy.
Number of consecutive wins:
26 – Memphis
21- Drake
20 – Davidson, Kansas
18- North Carolina
16- Vanderbilt, Cornell
14- Washington State
13- Indiana
12 – Duke
11- Xavier, Texas, Purdue, Michigan State, Tennessee and Western Kentucky
10- Clemson, Notre Dame, Connecticut, Wisconsin and South Alabama
Absent from this list are such notable teams like UCLA, Georgetown, Louisville and Stanford, all teams that will be in anyone’s discussion of eventual champions of college hoops.
The next two points have to do with one of the key ingredients and really why the higher seeds have dominated this tournament, talent. Dykes had the revisionist ability to look back and see if different players had the skill and ability to play at the next level. For our purposes, we can only surmise what looks to be accurate, without having full knowledge.
Having a taller player with NBA ability allows teams to score points in the paint and likely grab more offensive and defensive rebounds. Having a guard with professional basketball ability, means any or all of three things can happen. The guard can create dribble penetration to either score or set-up teammates to score. He has the ability to take over games at this level, by individual play and can win a game or two literally by himself, when the team is struggling.
In reviewing above list, Memphis has Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose in the backcourt. It would be a shock, if both don’t play at the next level. John Dorsey and Robert Dozier should make somebody’s roster.
The next two teams of this group are Drake and Davidson, who have talented, smart college players who have a wonderful understanding of how to play the game. Josh Young and Missouri Valley player of the year Adam Emmenecker are splendid talents, that don’t have the size to make it in NBA. The Bulldogs have unique frontcourt college players, which doesn’t transfer well when moving up. Davidson has a player of pedigree in Stephen Curry, whose dad Dell, played a long time in the NBA. The younger Curry has NBA-range, but is frail looking as 6’2 or 6’3 shooting guard.
Kansas, like Memphis, has three NBA players on the roster, in guard Brandon Rush and forwards Darrell Arthur and Darnell Jackson, both 6’8 or taller. Even Sasha Kahn is being talked about as a nice backup center at the next level. North Carolina is next and has bountiful talent, yet in truth, is border-line in using this assessment. Tyler Hansbrough will play in NBA, but the guard position is more questionable. Wayne Ellington, Marcus Ginyard, and Danny Green all show moments of brilliance, buts does it transfer out of college basketball? Ty Lawson is phenomenal talent, nonetheless is listed as 5’11. Ellington is a very good shooter and will in all likelihood be NBA player. Don’t misunderstand, North Carolina is odds on favorite, it is just using aforementioned criteria.
In breaking down many of the other clubs, most come short. Cornell has exceptional Ivy League talent. Xavier, Michigan State, Clemson, Western Kentucky, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Duke and South Alabama all have one very good player and several that are above average collegiate players.
Tennessee, Indiana and Connecticut all have substantial NBA-type players. For the Vols, it is Wayne Chism near the basket and more likely JuJuan Smith than Chris Lofton at guard position. The Hoosiers have D.J. White, who had superb senior season and freshman Eric Gordon, who should stay at IU for another year of seasoning. UConn has ever-improving center Hasheem Thabeet and guard A.J. Price, who past the eyeball test.
A few teams are very close conceptually like Vanderbilt, Texas and Washington State. The Commodores have Shan Foster, who can shoot lights out and A.J. Ogilvy in the paint, yet does anyone really believe Vandy could win six games away from Nashville? Texas has explosive A.J. Augustin and 6’10 Connor Atchley, whose stock is rising, still he is fourth scoring option most games. With the Cougars style of play, it is difficult to properly assess if Kyle Weaver and Aron Baynes are next level talents. If one wants optimistic view, go with yes, but can you trust team that averages then 67.1 points a game to put together six game winning streak?
Moving on, 70 percent of the teams that have a national championship the last decade won there conference tournament. Interestingly enough, the teams with the five longest winning streaks in the country during the regular season all won there post-season tournaments. A few years ago, a belief was floating around; losing in postseason tourneys was a good thing, allowing teams to rest more. Yet as we see, the power of momentum carries far greater importance, especially when it coming to cutting down the nets and be given the trophy by Jim Nantz and Billy Packer.
The ground rules are in place, the field is set, what teams meet all the criteria to be solid wagers to be crowned champions? There are three teams that stand above the rest and they are all numbers one seeds. They are North Carolina, Kansas and Memphis. Each has the long winning streak, each has the proper talent both inside and outside and each won conference tournament. The most recent odds available have North Carolina 4-1, Kansas 5-1, and Memphis 6-1.
Hope this helps you make a greater evaluation as to what teams could be the NCAA national basketball champions. Good Luck.
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