Greg Maddux - Go Figure

Sometimes sports makes absolutely no sense. Gregg Maddux is a first ballot Hall of Famer five years after he retires, no question. He's among the smartest pitcher in this or any era, as he never had a Randy Johnson fastball, or a knee buckling curve. Maddux has expertly been able to spot the ball where he needed and made hitters swing at his pitches. For those old school enough to remember Catfish Hunter with Oakland and the Yankees, very similar.

For all his greatness, the Arizona Diamondbacks have been his Waterloo. After three sharp efforts in 2008, leading to the 42-year old hurler to own 2.00 ERA, be started in the desert Friday night and was blown up for six runs in the first inning by Arizona and had to suck it up, with the Padres having no other pitchers available, having played 22-innings the night prior. Maddux ended up throwing 113 pitches in seven innings, be thumped for 13 hits and nine runs.

Since joining the league in 1997, the D-Backs are 13-2 versus Maddux, hanging a ERA well over 5 on him. When it comes to Arizona, you'd have to believe Maddux is just snake bit.

Saturday Betting Notes

Last night went 3-2 in bases, with winners on St. Louis, Arizona and Tex/Bos.-Over. Kansas City and the Dodgers were losers. Can't complain, being fifth in MLB at FSM. Stepped out on Arizona, playing them at -167 money line. Normally don't play favorites above -150, especially in April; however the Snakes were in a system that was 22-3, thus made the wager. Arizona ended up winning 9-0.

Took Washington and Dallas as NBA series plays. I'm not sold that Cleveland is really any good right now. Many believe King James can lift the Cavs all by himself to win this series. While that sounds great, who does he pass the ball to for dependable scoring? Ben Wallace is a absolute liability on offense, meaning even a so-so defensive team like the Wizards can guard five on four. Washington hung in their the whole season, overcoming injuries and is as healthy as they have been all year. Three very good players against one great one, Washington wins.

Some people don't believe New Orleans lack of playoff experience is a detriment, quite the contrary in my opinion. I see it causing them problems and Dallas really has no pressure on them being the underdog. I'm first in line to believe the Mavs are mentally weak and can fall apart like muffin. Yet now they have no expectations and sting Hornets advancing.

I did pass on Dallas today with the +4.5 and even though they are 14-2 ATS as playoff dogs, don't like the fact they drilled New Orleans at home Wednesday.

Today playing the White Sox to win, and took Washington Caps to win game five. Actually liked Brewers and Royals also, but decided to pass because Suppan hasn't gotten anybody out this season and K.C. currently is offensively challenged.

NBA Playoffs –Key Saturday Game One Info

The first day of the NBA playoffs will have a Western flavor, with three of the contests involving squads from the Western Conference. The one series figuring to be an attention grabber for fans and basketball bettors alike is Phoenix and San Antonio. The Suns loss to the Spurs in the West finals left a bitter taste with suspensions of key players, in rough-house work started by Robert Horry. Upstart New Orleans will try to follow season long success with opening win against Dallas. The other two series on Saturday are 4vs5 matchups, each with a flavor on their own.

(4)Washington at (5) Cleveland (-2.5, 188)

Key Game Info:
LeBron James and his Cleveland teammates will see Washington for the third straight time in the first round. James has said he and the Cavs aren’t going to get caught up in trashing talking; he’ll leave that to Washington. The Wizards DeShawn Stevenson was quoted as saying James is “overrated”. With Washington tired of being eliminated by Cleveland and the Cavaliers not want to hear “talk”, intensity level is expected to be a fever pitch.

Key Side Trends:
-Wizards are 21-10 ATS as a road underdog this season.
-Wizards are 8-1 ATS with two days rest.
-Cavaliers are 4-12 ATS in home games versus good ball handling teams committing 14 or less turnovers a game this season.
-Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven playoff games as a favorite.

Key Total System:
Play UNDER on all teams like Washington, where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points after going over the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. (31-10, 75.6 percent L3Y)

Season Series: 2-2 SU and ATS, 3-1 OVER
History at Cleveland: Cavaliers 8-2 and 4-6 ATS vs Wizards

(6)Phoenix at (3) San Antonio (-4,194)

Key Game Info:
This game and series has it all. Defense vs Offense, Shaq vs Mr. Fundamental, Bruce Bowen against every Suns fan imaginable. Expect Shaquille O’Neal to be extremely motivated and Amare Stoudemire trying to make immediate statement. Steve Nash and the Suns guards have to take care of the basketball. Suns frontcourt can’t let San Antonio to play volleyball on offensive glass. Spurs will undoubtedly be composed, use every trick in the book to get Phoenix players more worried about things other than the game at hand.

Key Side Trends:
-Suns are 11-2 ATS in road games versus teams who average seven or less steals a game on the season.
-Suns are 5-0 ATS with two days of late.
-Spurs are 14-6 ATS in home games after two or more consecutive wins this season.
-Spurs are 8-19 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less.

Key Total System:
Play UNDER all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points in the first round and first game of the playoffs. (36-12, 75 percent L11Y)

Season Series: Suns 3-1 SU & ATS, 4-0 UNDER
History at San Antonio: Spurs 6-3 and 4-5 ATS vs Suns

(7)Dallas at (2) New Orleans (-4.5, 193)

Key Game Info:
How will New Orleans react in first playoff game? Chris Paul has been the best point guard in the NBA this season and David West is legit All-Star. Peja Stojakovic and Morris Peterson are excellent deep threats and Tyson Chandler is hustler in the paint. Dallas one year ago was the favorite to win NBA title and now is in the role of underdog for this game and the series. The Mavericks could learn from last year and jump on New Orleans early by stealing opening game and putting the pressure on them.

Key Side Trends:
-Mavs are 14-2 ATS as playoff underdogs.
-Mavs are 5-13 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams making 76% or more of their attempts.
-Hornets are 23-14 ATS as a home favorite this season.
-Hornets are 15-4 ATS in a home game when the total is between 190 and 194.5 points.

Key Total System:
Play UNDER all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points after teams like Dallas, after failing to cover four of their last five against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. (29-9, 76.3 percent L5Y)

Season Series: 2-2 SU & ATS, 3-1 OVER
History at New Orleans: Hornets 2-4 and 2-3-1 ATS vs Mavs


(4)Utah at (5) Houston (-1, 186)

Key Game Info:
Must win for Houston, who is without Yao Ming, PG Rafer Alston won’t play and Tracy McGrady is dinged. The Rockets have to control tempo and force the ball out of the hands of Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer, who can be a deadly combination. Though just average defensively, look for coach Jerry Sloan to have his team contest every Houston shot and play fast to wear down Rockets late in the game. A loss by Houston shakes the foundation without enough weapons moving forward.

Key Side Trends:
-Jazz are 0-4 in last four playoff underdog appearances.
-Jazz are 17-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of this season.
-Rockets are 24-10 ATS in the second half of this season.
-Rockets are 9-2-1 ATS facing a team with losing road record.

Key Total System:
Play UNDER all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points, with a good 3PT shooting team like Utah (>=36.5%) against an average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%), in a game involving two good ball handling team (<=14.5 turnovers). (34-16, 68 percent this year)

Season Series: Jazz 2-1 SU & 1-1-1 ATS, 2-1 OVER
History at Houston: Rockets 5-4 and 4-5 ATS vs Jazz

Miguel Tejada comes of age

Don't you just love Miguel Tejada. For starters Baltimore moves him to Houston to remove the 14, 811, 414.00 salary he has coming in 2008. (Those two commas mean millions) He's being investigated by the Justice Department for steroid use and might be brought in at some point to testify. Now the latest news, for the Astros to find out, their 14 million shortstop is 33 years old, not 31 as they most likely believed.

It has often been reported and an area of concern, Dominican Republic players are often older than alleged age. ESPN E:60 correspondent Tom Farrey presented Tejada with a copy of a birth certificate, filed by his father in his hometown of Bani, that showed he was born on May 25, 1974 on 1976. (At least the date is the same) Tejada upon being presented with this information, got up and left the interview.


Houston management now having even more egg on their face, wea quick to spin the situation. "Fact of the matter is that he plays like he's 25, so I don't think it really matters a whole lot," Astros GM Ed Wade told the Houston Chronicle. Good one Ed, 33-year old shortstop making 14 mil. I wonder if GM Billy Beane is interested in Oakland about bring back one of his guys?


Have you seen Kansas City Royals starting pitchers yet? Kansas City isn't going to win the AL Central this year, but they might have three quality starting pitchers, which is more than many major league teams can say. Gil Meche is at the top of the rotation and truthfully he's been mediocre; however look for him to come around. Behind him is 24-year Zach Greinke who is 3-0 with 0.75 ERA. Next is Brian Bannister, at 27-years of age, also 3-0 with 0.86 ERA. Nobody expects them to continue to pitch this way; however for the first time is a VERY long long time, the Royals could go into far more series with a chance to win. Now if the bats wake from slumber......

Today played Cardinals at -114, and bullpen failed giving up five runs from the eight inning out in losing to Milwaukee. Liked the White Sox playing well and their bullpen could not hold three run in the eight either, in losing 6-5 to Baltimore. Played Seattle, got my finger crossed.

The Flyers went to 2OT before I could finally find a winner today.


Someday's your the annoying bug, other day's you're the windshield. Losing two MLB games with the lead late in the game in extra innings is just bad luck.

Baseball Betting Being Bery Bery so far

Off to a nice start in baseball, with the Yankees and St. Louis both winning tonight. For the season now at 15-8, + 7.3 units. For all those doubters out there, my picks are monitored at FreeSportsmonitor.com and at Wagerline.com. I like FreeSportsMonitor because those using are realistic. You can tell those using this monitor are serious, likely either playing or selling their picks. Not like some of those other sites where guys put in 20 plays a day and if they get lucky, they can hit a hot streak for extended period of time, playing money lines, pumping up fraudulent records.


You will notice my record varies from that at FreeSportsMonitor, for one reason only. Sometimes the lines they have are rotten. For example, I might find three books that would have lets say the Red Sox at -124 and I'll go to FSM and they'll have it at -145. No self-respecting bettor would actually bet into such a bad line, thus in keeping with integrity, I won't "place Bet" so to speak. That is why I use Wagerline, because they have realistic numbers you would find anywhere.


You've never see 3DW anywhere near the top of their leaderboards, because as I said, refuse to have monitored results with false (good or bad) record. You can easily see my current results and look into archives here to see past accomplishments. I almost forgot, I mess around with USASportsMonitor.net. I've used for quite awhile and don't have good reason why I still place picks there, other than I've done it for a long time. Probably will drop come next football.


Baseball is a hard grind that demands certain disciplines to win. I believe I understand those and the week of April 28, I'll start sharing my methods for betting baseball.


Surprised as hell, Detroit Red Wings lost at Nashville tonight. I played them along with the Rangers (at least that won). Thus far in the NHL Playoffs 5-6 -1.33 units. Lots of time to turn that around.


Will have NBA Previews later this week. Until then, I'm out.

Baseball’s Bettors Good, Bad and Ugly

A couple of weeks into the baseball season, certain trends are emerging on all major league baseball teams. Some are what we thought, others have been misjudged early, and some just have an odor similar to the town dump. Here is a first look at who have been good, bad and ugly bets in 2008.

GOOD

Oakland 9-6 +5.7 units
Who knew a trip to Japan can cure what looked like an ugly team. Maybe the Athletics rubbed themselves with Far East magic potion, which has them all playing better than what they are. Sweeping Toronto on the road and beating C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona in back to back games in Cleveland, now that’s impressive. Nobody believes it will last, since this type of teams pops up every April, nevertheless betting on the Athletics earns sharp bettors A+.

Kansas City 8-6 +4.5 units
Brian Bannister and Zack Greinke are both 3-0 for the Royals with ERA’s under one. Kansas City’s pitching and offense are interesting dichotomy, first in runs allowed and next to last in runs scored at 3.3 per game. What is most likely to get worse? Pick spots this month to keep winning with Royals.

Arizona 10-4 +6 units
At least this team made the postseason last year. The D-Backs offense has been scoring runs, leading all of baseball and if Randy Johnson can become a mildly reliable starter at number three or four slot behind Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, Arizona will be Play On team for some time. With young hitters, slumps are inevitable, watch for when the Snakes have two or three games with seven or fewer hits and go the other way.

BAD

Colorado 5-8 -3.7 units
The big question coming into the season was Colorado for real, or just a team that looked like a Coors Light desert mirage, that got hot late? The Rockies starting pitchers have gotten off to rocky start and any staff that has Mark Redman is hurting. The vaunted Colorado lineup has shown less than a nun’s habit, averaging less then four runs an outing. When they Rocks hit, they’ll win, when not, 50-50 wagering proposition.

New York Yankees 8-7 -2.0 units
The Yankees are almost never going to be a good bet, being frontloaded with too many large numbers as favorites. What has made them lousy April wager is 23rd ranked offense. Jason Giambi has a couple of dingers; however has a batting average like a typical summer day in Death Valley, CA, at .107. Joe Girardi already being accused of over-managing.

New York Mets 6-6 -2.5 units
Johan Santana welcome to the Big Apple. In his very first start in Shea Stadium, he was booed for allowing five runs (three homers) in almost seven innings of work in losing to Milwaukee. Johan, this isn’t a cottage on Lake Tranquility in Minnesota, ya der hey. This New York team seems to be built like house of cards, pull one and the whole thing could come down.

UGLY

L.A. Dodgers 6-8 -3.6 units
Part of the problem for the Boys in Blue is bad luck. Facing Jake Peavy twice in the first two weeks doesn’t help and catching aspiring Arizona in the middle of hot streak only exasperates early issues. With steady Joe Torre in the dugout, Brad Penny and Chad Billingsley soon to be hitting stride, Dodgers SHOULD be O.K.

Cleveland 5-9 -7.4 units
Was this team really THAT close to eliminating Boston last year? No matter what time of year, it is never good when your closer (Joe Borowski in this instance, now on DL) has an ERA of 18.00. C.C. Sabathia has earned all F’s in three starts, allowing nine walks in 14 innings. Shaky starting pitching and unreliable bullpen could call for palinode of the Tribe being one of the best teams in American League.

Detroit 4-10 -10.4 units
Saying Detroit is off to a slow start, is like promoting “Leatherheads” for Oscar material. With this offense near the bottom in almost every category, they have posted a ZERO on four different occasions already. Maybe manager Jim Leyland stepping on a few throats or unlikely comeback this past Monday against Minnesota will turn like Tigers around, yet until they show any consistency besides losing, a tough bet either way.

Wagering Info on NHL Playoffs

Five games are on the NHL playoff docket for Tuesday, each holding a great deal of significance for everyone involved. Some series could become a foregone conclusion, some could be headed that direction, while others could really whet the appetite of those betting hockey. For those daring enough to take the underdog or favorite of any sports most unpredictable first round, good luck tonight. Here is betting outlook of each contest tonight.

Montreal at Boston –Canadiens lead 2-1

Boston had lost 12 of 13 games at Montreal and 22 of 26 to the Canadiens, before breaking thru and knocking off the Canadiens in overtime in Game three. The Bruins have to be encouraged with how they are playing, playing Montreal into extra sessions in the last two contests, splitting them. “I’d like to think we can carry over with the momentum,” Boston goalie Tim Thomas said. “It was a big win but (Tuesday) the work starts all over again. It’s a clean slate every game.”

Montreal is 11-4 ATS after a close loss by one goal in their previous game this season, while the Bruins are just 4-9 ATS after allowing two goals or less in next contest. Boston will once again be the underdog, being presented as +115 with total of Un5 at Bookmaker.com, and they have won four in a row in this role.

Washington at Philadelphia –Tied 1-1

Bettors have to wonder, if the Washington surge to make the playoffs has left them winded. The Capitals needed three third period goals to defeat the Flyers in the opener and were shutout at home by Martin Biron in the second game 2-0. Washington coach Bruce Boudreau was succinct about last contest. "I can't put it any plainer," Boudreau said. "Philadelphia outplayed us, outworked us and out-won the battles on us. We now know that we've got to pay a bigger price if we want to succeed."

Maybe the rest will do the Capitals good, being 19-7 ATS with a day off. Rest has benefits for Philadelphia as well, with 10-1 ATS mark in last 11 tries with exactly one day off. Philly is a -130 favorite; however is just 10-21 ATS off a road win by two goals or more. The road team has won five of last six meetings between these combatants, including the Caps taking four straight.

The Versus Network will telecast starting at 7 Eastern.

Anaheim at Dallas- Stars lead 2-0

Talk about your back up against the wall for Anaheim! Memories of last year’s Stanley Cup run are a distant memory for the Ducks who lost both games at home, being outclassed and outscored by seven goals. Anaheim was trying to become the first team in 10 seasons to go back-to-back, now they just need to win a game. Dallas has been known for playoff failures and was believed to be heading for more of the same, closing the regular season 3-10. Instead, future Hall-of-Famer Mike Madano might have had the answer. “I think it was better for us to start on the road to get that mind-set and get really involved in the series,” Modano said.

The Stars come back home 10-1 ATS off a road blowout win by three goals or more over the last two seasons. The Ducks have to quickly regroup and leave the jejune behavior behind. The defending champs are 25-8 after allowing five or more goals in next game. Dallas is -130 favorite with total Un5.

San Jose at Calgary – Flames lead 2-1

To say Calgary was in trouble was like saying the mortgage business is having a few problems, after the Flames trailed 3-0 at home in the first 3:33 of Game three. Off the bench came 40-year backup netminder Curtis Joseph, who went on to stymie the Sharks the rest of the way and Calgary stormed to 4-3 win.

San Jose once again is showing they turn from men to boys come playoff time and have already lost two games they should have won to undermanned Calgary. Possibly the rest will clear the Sharks heads after deflating defeat, as they are 11-2 with one day between games.
Don’t expect the Calgary to flameout as +125 home ice dogs, since they 7-1 ATS in this spot. Hard to imagine 2006 Vezina trophy winner Miikka Kiprusoff will have two bad games in a row.

Minnesota at Colorado – Wild lead 2-1

In the second half of doubleheader on Versus, they will show Game four of the Wild and Avalanche series. Going into the series, Minnesota was a -140 favorite to advance and after three games that all went into overtime, the difference between these two Northwest Division foes is about as thick as a credit card.

Even with the upset win, the Wild are just 2-6 ATS on the road in last eight. Colorado has been one of the best home teams in the NHL for years and is still 9-2 ATS in last 11. Minnesota has long had issues playing with no rest, winning less then 33 percent of the time in over 90 games. The Avs are just 1-5 playing with no days off if last game went into OT. Possibly the playoffs will prove to be different, but the home team has taken 10 of 13, justifying Colorado being -165 favorite.

Phoenix in Hot Super System

The great debate whether the acquisition of Shaquille O’Neal was the right move for the Phoenix Suns was correct or not, probably won’t be answered until the world sees how they perform in the postseason; nevertheless it is as clear as a pristine lake in Utah, it hasn’t worked out for the regular season. Phoenix is only 15-11 (15-10-1 ATS) since O’Neal first donned a Sun uniform, starting with the first game after the All-Star break and they have fallen from second in the West to sixth overall.

Granted, the Western Conference has been an unrelenting beast the entire second half of the season, with all the top teams knocking off one another, yet the fact remains New Orleans had the best record at the break and is still tied for the best record in the loss column with the Lakers. In the proverbial media speak “If the playoffs were to start today”, Phoenix would have to defeat San Antonio, Utah and Kobe and company, without the benefit of home court advantage once, just to make it to NBA finals.

All of this kind of talk can wait until the weekend when the NBA Playoffs commence; instead the attention will be focused on tonight. The Suns finish the regular season at home after winning two of three on the road. The only loss they suffered was at the hands of Houston 101-90. That contest was a perfect example of the public overvaluing a team based on last game played. The Suns had horsewhipped San Antonio two nights before and opened as one point underdogs at Houston. The wagering public jumped on the Phoenix bandwagon and bet them all the way up to 3.5-point road favorites. Steve Nash and his merry mates rocketed to double digit lead, before succumbing to Houston’s defense.

This leads directly into tonight’s meeting with Golden State. The Warriors only chance to make playoffs is to win last two games and have Denver lose at home to miserable Memphis. Most sportsbooks has the Suns favored by five points, all leading a sweet Super System.

Play On home favorites like Phoenix, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, playing with two days rest.

In this case, Coach Mike D’Antoni’s team is a bit peeved about losing and has had two days to prepare. This late in the season, this can be especially valuable for all NBA teams. The club has time to refocus and historically given very solid effort. How good, in the last five years the home team is 43-4 straight up, with 36-9 against the spread record, good for 80 percent winners. This system has been even more helpful to bettors with 24-4, 85.7 percent record the last three seasons.

Since 2004, this has been one of the more gratifying systems to wager on, with winning margin almost 13 points per game.

With the weather heating up in the desert, Phoenix has the appearance of a hot play tonight.

Saturday Wagering Thoughts

Today really like Sacramento with the +8.5. New Orleans has had a great season, yet off emotional loss to Lakers last night and trying to secure best of the West, too many points. Also like Utah -5.5 against Denver. This has been a big home floor series and though the Nuggets are still to fend off Golden State, they won't here.

In baseball, taking Baltimore at +111 because starter Dan Cabrera is 6-0 when starting against Rays and Jason Hammels is 0-3 with ERA of almost 9 vs. the O's. Might have more baseball later.

Look for Anaheim to bounce back after stupid performance against Dallas in game one of NHL Playoffs.

Not a big Arena Football player, but love San Jose catching 5.5 points at home. The Sabercats are 13-4 ATS in home games after allowing 63 points or more last game. They are defending champs taking on unbeaten team.

Good Luck today.

Hump Day Thoughts

What a great game the national championship was! Their is no denying Memphis, well you know, didn't finish. Though I hate to use the "c" word, maybe the best way to describe what happened is, it very difficult to shoot free throws with one hand around your neck.

After shooting free throws so badly all season, it made no sense how they could suddenly start shooting so well in the tournament. The law of average caught up to the Tigers based on previous perfomances. Nevertheless, Kansas had to made all the shots and clutch baskets. I can proudly say I picked the Jayhawks and made a nice sum of money at 5-1 odds.

With the NHL playoffs starting and having the coolest trophy in sports in the Stanley Cup, isn't it awful the NCAA trophy looked like something you order online for $19.99 plus free shipping. Seriously, CBS forked over a billion dollars for the TV and the online rights, the NCAA can't afford a trophy that looks like it has some stature. I'd wager the lacrosse trophy looks better than that cheap thing.

Finished the NCAA Tournament 13-9-1, 54.5 percent, which isn't all that bad after 3-5 start.

Tonight played the following:

NBA - 2* New York

NHL - Calgary +169 (more on why later)

MLB - Baltimore +134, White Sox -128

Strong Opinion
Pittsburgh +124

Good Luck

NCAA Title Game Pick

I picked the Kansas to cut down the nets tonight. What impressed me before the tournament was the intensity seldom seen by Bill Self teams, having the killer instinct. Take away the near choke job against Davidson, the Jayhawks last 10 wins have been by 20.6 points per game.

The numbers I worked up show Memphis by one, thus until the flurry of activity today, probably was a fair number. What has impressed me about Memphis is how this team has grown emotionally. When they were undefeated playing Tennessee at home, they came out shooting three’s and making them like they had something to prove against doubting public. As expected they went cold and showed the lack of maturity in still chucking up the lame ducks that were clanking off the rim. Since then, they have learned to trust the inside players more, leaving greater opportunities for Chris Douglas-Roberts inside and out, along with creating more room for explosive Derrick Rose to penetrate. John Calipari, has turned into Jerry Tarkanian without all the previous baggage.

With the switch in favorites, you still can’t ignore the last 10 times a team has been the betting public’s choice by five or fewer points they are 10-0 SU and ATS. At the same time, Bill Self would know his team beat the number one team in the country, was favored to win and is now an underdog. Besides the obvious significance of the game, this is a coach’s dream for motivational speech. Self, dating back to his days at Illinois and Tulsa, is 16-4 against the spread off a win as underdog. Kansas is also 7-1 ATS as underdogs.

Why I like Kansas is because I think the bench is a bit more productive. Sasha Kaun has scored points in big situations and Sherrod Collins is instant excitement. That’s not to say Memphis bench is bad, just not as good as the Jayhawks.

I see the first team to 75 points wins the game and I believe that will be Kansas.

Final Four Picks

UCLA will undoubtedly try to slow the game down against Memphis and control the tempo, making it more to their liking. The Bruins will walk the ball up and try to force Memphis to play defense for longer stretches. It won’t work, coach John Calipari will breakdown Western Kentucky win and see what problems the Bruins had with Hilltoppers. Memphis’ better and longer athletes can be extremely effective in zone traps and he has them 100 percent committed on defensive end. Kevin Love can present problems from matchup standpoint, especially if he hits a few long shots. By the same token, he is not a quick leaper and Memphis frontcourt players can use athletic ability to tap balls or just go over the top. Coach Ben Howland has dilemma how to play Tigers guards. As Memphis proved against Texas, smaller guards can be extinguished. In the Final Four, underdogs like the Bruins off a pair of wins by 10 or more points are just 1-4 ATS in recent efforts. Tigers by 8.


Announcer Gus Johnson’s comment about 800-pound gorilla removed from Bill Self and Kansas back was poignant. The Jayhawks are unburdened with expectations now and will face teams will equal ability, making them underdog, were they could flourish. In the Jayhawks last seven underdog roles, they have cashed in six of them. The game with North Carolina has the making a classic; both teams shoot the ball extremely well, make three-point shots with great regularity and attack the rim off the bounce. Where Kansas has the edge is overall defense. Do they have a player like Taylor Hansbrough, no; however have the same or bettor at all other positions, with greater depth. Teams like the Tar Heels that have covered three consecutive games leading up to Final Four matchup are 6-20 ATS in this round. Kansas in a tight one by 2.

The Final Four – What if?

For the first time in the history of the NCAA Tournament, all four number one seeds have advanced to the Final Four. While it makes for great story telling when a Cinderella is fit for glass slipper to make the last group, they often flop in this situation like George Mason did in 2006. Instead, this year, we have the top four teams that finished one, two, three and four in the final Coaches’ poll of the regular season.

With the games presumed to be tightly contested or potentially blowouts because of just a few factors, here is a betting outlook at “what if” any of our four finalist play there best or worst.

What if North Carolina plays their best?

When North Carolina bends down, pulls up the shorts and defends, they are the best team in the country. Offensively, they are without peer, even among this contingent, scoring 89 points per game. Being at or near the top of the polls, they have made life easy for “square” bettors, being 23-10-2 against the spread. Tyler Hansbrough is the single hardest working player in the country and always gives the Tar Heels a shot to win. Having Ty Lawson back at point makes the North Carolina players better, allowing them to play to strengths instead of compensating in other areas they are not as skilled at. Their supremacy is shown by 13-1 ATS record versus excellent teams shooting 45 percent or higher with a defense holding opponents to 42 percent or lower this season.

What if Tar Heels are at their worst?

North Carolina is a better than 8-5 choice to cut down the nets Monday night, but that won’t happen if two of these three things happen. Hansbrough can be limited, have him catch the ball 2-3 feet outside comfort level and flash ball-side defender at him, forcing him to make quick decisions. If he looks to pass weak side, off ball defender has to be aware of passes that can be stolen. Hope Danny Green in particular and other shooters are off on three-pointers, never giving easy looks. When and if opposing team has lead, move the ball on offense and make Heels play defense for 25 or more seconds on multiple possessions, they will become impatient.

What if Kansas plays their best?

When Kansas is at there best, no team in this field is capable of beating them. They have the size to swallow up the lane and speed at all five positions to run and defend with anyone. The Jayhawks are one team that will be comfortable playing at a faster speed, like UNC or Memphis plays and is truly exceptional in creating dribble penetration to the rim. They make over 50 percent from the field and 40 percent from beyond the arc, plus hold opponents to 38.5 percent shooting on the road. The Jayhawks could be underdog twice in San Antonio and come away national champs. They are 6-1 ATS in this role and 5-0 ATS off win by less than six points.

What if Jayhawks are at their worst?

In the Bill Self era and even when Roy Williams was the coach in Lawrence, Kansas showed the capacity to tighten up in critical games and situations. The signs are more obvious than a Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays season outcome. The Jayhawks start jacking up jump shots, stand on offensive sets and two players hang their heads after opponents made baskets. If opposing team is dictating tempo, they become stagnant and are 1-7 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 77 or points a game this season. For all their balance, they don’t have reliable go-to player who wants to take big shot in close games. If Brandon Rush is so-so, Kansas is VERY ordinary in big games.

What if Memphis plays their best?

Combine aggressive defense, crashing the boards with authority, dribble penetration offensive AND the ability to make free throws, and Memphis at just under 3-1 odds is a load. Of any team in the Final Four, if this was round-robin, they would be most likely to win all three games when they are playing like they are right now. Derrick Rose has been the cherry on the top of the desert, which has made this Tigers team virtually unstoppable. Chris Douglas-Roberts is a complete player and the frontline is domineering over opponents in the paint. Coach Calipari teams are 57-33 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a game, after 15 or more contests in a season.

What if Tigers are at their worst?

Playing top level competition in December is not the same as being in a big moment like the Final Four. In only loss to Tennessee, Memphis players seemed more intent on showing they could make outside shots, than playing their game. In spite of exceptional talent coming off the bench, this is a team that is better with the sum of its parts. When Scott Wieland was booted from Stone Temple Pilots, the rest of the members thought they could go on. If Joey Dorsey gets into foul trouble, or Rose as freshman, becomes overwhelmed by the moment, the Tigers could fall to 1-7 ATS off a cover again. One last point, the free throw shooting is just a couple of clanks away from rearing ugly head.

What if UCLA plays their best?

UCLA is making third straight trip to Final Four and just over 3-1 odds to win it all. The Bruins have players’ familiar with the pressures of the media, scrutiny by the masses and the team with the most to prove, based on the last two seasons coming up short. UCLA is 8-2 ATS after scoring 75 points or more two straight games this season, proving they can play with the high octane teams in this field, yet can play lock down defense on the perimeter like they did against Xavier. Desire is one aspect that is impossible to measure in situations like this, nonetheless, juniors Darren Collison, Josh Shipp, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute have played prominent roles on this stage and have the big game experience that should allow them to shine. Like Memphis, coach Ben Howland believes Kevin Love was the one missing piece to complete circle of success.

What if Bruins are at their worst?

Go ahead, name productive backcourt player coming off the UCLA bench? If Collison has problems with scoring or turnovers, Bruins have immediate issues. Josh Shipp has been unhealthy in the tournament and his jump shot has shown it, hitting 33 percent in tourney’s first four games. Kevin Love has created matchup issues for opposing clubs with well-rounded skills, however the prowess of the frontcourts he will see will test his defensive skills as well, particularly his lack of cutting off drives on the baseline that could lead to baskets and him picking up cheap fouls. UCLA has to score 70 points; otherwise they are likely out with 2-10 ATS mark this 2007-08 campaign.

Betting Notes at 3DW

Stepped out today playing three NBA games, but truthfully confident each should come in.

NBA Plays
2* Washington - New York - Portland

The Wizards play is more about Milwaukee than Washington, as this article points out. New York is horrible, but Memphis an eight point favorite? The Lakers are struggling to cover spreads and each team is .500 in road/home situation, why not take the points.

Passing on baseball, as I'm very selective the first two weeks.

The Left Coast Connection just has a play on the Wizards tonight.

I've received very interesting information on a baseball bettor. He plays underdogs almost exclusively and has a track record I'm told is among the best in terms of units won. Unlike myself, he plays from day one. Tonight he has San Francisco, Houston and the White Sox, stay tuned.

Tuesday Sports Betting Info

Based on past post about playing against Boston, time to get started right now. The Red Sox are -132 road favorites and starter Dice-K Matsuzaka minimized the damage he could have incurred and escaped with two runs against the A's. Don't believe that will happen again and like the fact Oakland has won 7 of 12 against BoSox at home the last two years. Playing A's on the money line.

In the NBA, have three plays. Like Orlando, they well-rested and motivation shouldn't be a problem, facing the best team in the West in New Orleans. Also playing Houston, but no more than -2 points. Rockets are 13-4 ATS on the road off a road loss over the last two seasons.

Recap: 2* Houston - Orlando

In the NHL, playing the UNDER with Calgary/Edmonton, seeing they have done so 21 of last 29 times they met. Also in the hockey, red-hot Washington can catch Carolina in the Southeast Division, I think they do on home ice.

The Left Coast Connection has the following tonight:
MLB- Toronto
NBA - San Antonio
CBB- Ole Miss

I actually like the Blue Jays also, just wished they would have played yesterday. It seems like when you wait, the dynamics change. If the Rebels played better on the road, I'd been on them also.

Early Baseball Betting Angle

Mentioned yesterday about a baseball wagering opportunity to consider. The Boston Red Sox are of course the defending World Series champions and have been dealt about as cruel a hand to start the season as any baseball team could. (Phil Hellmuth would be whining like crazy) By now you know they had to fly to Japan to play two regular season games against Oakland, along with putting on clinics and other things when they visited.

They flew back to Los Angeles to play exhibition games (that makes sense) against the Dodgers, before flying up the coast to finish A's "home" series on April 1st and 2nd. (This is no joke and it gets better) Granted, in order to get home they have to fly East, but to Toronto for weekend series? For those keeping score, that's three countries in 10 days.

After off day on April 7, it is three games with Detroit, who figures to compete with BoSox for top honors in the AL, followed by three with the hated Yankees. If that weren't enough, a brief four game trip to two cities ...................just two of the teams that were in the American League postseason, Cleveland and those fun-loving Yankees.

That is three countries and seven cities (including L.A.) in 24 days. Even Tampa Bay would have reason to complain, let alone the defending champions of the baseball.

This all leads to betting against the Red Sox, through no fault of their own, especially when they are favored in this time period. It would make sense they would be overvalued as champs, and having to play this tough of schedule would be challenging enough. Throw in all the travel, thanks to Bud the Commish and this appears to be money-making proposition playing against the Red Sox.

Final Four Dance Card is Filled Today

In the end, Louisville made three critical turnovers after tying the game at 59 and North Carolina lathered in the embrace of a pro-Tar Heels crowd to beat Louisville by 10. If I made a mistake in taking the Cardinals, it was underestimating the impact of the crowd. I was well aware UNC was 24-1 in NCAA tournament games played in the state of North Carolina and 8-0 in NCAA tournament games played in Charlotte. My numbers had a close game and in truth, even though I lost, it was not a crushing defeat, I just lost believing I had the correct side.

I'm playing Texas as a 2* today against Memphis. I don't believe the Tigers will make 74 percent again from the free throw line and like the fact the Longhorns are 9-2 ATS after leading their last three games by five or more points at the half. Throw in the fact, #2 seeds are 6-2 ATS over #1 seeds in Elite 8 games since 1998.

The Left Coast Connection has 81 percent of members picking Texas also. Davidson is not official play; however is picked by 66 percent of this group.

Baseball starts here in the States (doesn't that seem stupid) tonight, will be good to have my favorite sport get going. Check in tomorrow, I'll have something to look for in early MLB action.

Elite 8 Saturday

Four blowouts last night, all equally impressive. Stephen Curry is such a good shooter and scorer for Davidson, yet the defense was the got my attention. For anyone that is a Wisconsin fan, you have to wonder why Bo Ryan was letting Brian Butch at 7'0, chuck up bricks from the top of the three point line. Sure he can make them from time to time, but his with size and strength advantage, do you really want him out there?

Today, really like Louisville with the points, thus I'll make them 3* with a chance to win outright. In the other game, would like to take Xavier; however off overtime game and against UCLA experience, will pass on star rated play and just suggest play on Musketeers.

For the tournament now 11-8-1.

The Left Coast Connection is 12-9-1 for the tourney and has the Cardinals today and split evenly on UCLA and Xavier.
In the NBA they are all over Denver.

Good Luck today.

Outsourcing Baseball

Neglected to mention I thought it was a sad commentary on major league baseball to play opening games of the season in Japan. It's no secret the reason why, purely profit and getting product into more places, at whatever the cost. It was even more ridiculous the current World Series champion Boston Red Sox had to go. If you are a fan of the Red Sox, the game started at just after 6:00 AM, meaning for most, they had to choose between work or watching their beloved team. Stupid is the only word that works.

Can you imagine the opening of the NFL season being in some foreign land with an weekday AM start time for the Giants this upcoming fall.

NCAA Basketball Plays

Finally a solid winning day from yours truly with Louisville, Xavier and North Carolina- UNDER all coming thru Thursday. That raises NCAA record to 10-8-1 against the spread. Not great, however beats the alternative. Today just one play stands out, with Texas a 3* selection. The quickness matchup really favors the Longhorns and their defense has been impressive for a large number of games.

For many people, this might not be a big deal, yet I thought it was important. In common opponents, Texas is 3-1 outscoring foes by 6.8 PPG. Stanford on the other hand was 2-3, outscoring same opponents by less then a point per game.

The Left Coast Connection also rebounded and is 11-8-1 in the tournament. Tonight they have Memphis and Wisconsin as there plays.

Good Luck tonight!