Baseball Betting System

Mentioned a couple of weeks ago I’d explain a system I developed how to determine if the money line is accurate in baseball and determine if you as the bettor could take advantage of it.

In any type of wagering, it is important to know if a number is close or way off base. Any number of different power rating systems are available, however I created one that I use as ground work to help formulate opinion on a game. Note, I did not say the reason for a selection, but to have a fundamental principle. MLB is a grind and you need to understand what the numbers mean. After almost two weeks of the baseball season, the numbers start to develop in a manner that is useful to check the lines. Here are the criteria I developed to help make me a more consistent winner.

1) Teams winning percentage
2) Teams situational record home or away (percentage)
3) Teams Record over the last 7 games (percentage)
4) Teams Bullpen won/loss record (percentage)
5) Teams Save percentage
6) Starting pitchers current record + record vs. opponent since 2001 (percentage)

I start with the team’s record, which is important because that is how they have played on the season. Next is how a team plays either at home or away over the course of the year. The last seven games give an indication of how each team has been playing lately; paying particular attention to how many runs and hits they’ve accumulated during this stretch to formulate stronger opinion. With fewer and fewer starting pitchers going deep into games because of mangers nervous about the front office types and pitch counts, the bullpens importance has been enhanced tremendously. The bullpens win/lost record tells the story about their performance to hold or lose leads during the course of the games and save percentage tells me about how they finish off games. The starting pitchers current record shows his season-to-date performance and the historical number explains about a pitcher against particular teams.

Here is what a game match-up would look like with the corresponding numbers from above.

5-8-08 – Brewers at Marlins (Brewers-125)

Brewers Marlins

1) 484 575

2) 450 550

3) 142 571

4) 600 600

5) 632 667

6) 250 714

Total - 2558 3677

Early in the year, the numbers are somewhat less accurate given the number of games played. As this season moves forward, the numbers become tighter and more accurate. The Brewers have been slumping, winning just one in last seven outings, while the Marlins have been playing decent baseball. In theory, the matchup of Carlos Villanueva at 1-3, 5.56 ERA of Milwaukee, taking on Mark Hendrickson (5-1, 3.77 ERA) of the Fish (Hendrickson has loss to Milwaukee in 2006) appears to be a complete mismatch.

Now take the Totals and divide by the number of lines, in this case six.

3677 divided by 6 and 2558 divided by 6.

The Marlins new number becomes 612 and the Brewers at 431. Then subtract the higher number against the lower.

612 – 431 = 181

Use this number and divide by 2.

181 divided by 2 = 90.5

I’ll round the number down each time, in this case to 90. From here I check the official line, with most sportsbooks having the Brewers -125. Anytime I have a difference greater then 40, which I do in this case, this contest is now a potential play.

This example has the Brewers -125; with this system I have the Marlins at -190, difference of 115. (Florida won 7-2)

The entire process of your typical 15-game schedule takes me about 60-70 minutes if I can do it at a sitting. Otherwise, typically I do the math the night before, since I’m in West Coast time zone and have more final scores from the previous day.

It is important to be familiar with all the teams and know other factors in making a profit from wagering on baseball. As I said in the beginning, this method hones in on how accurate a money line actually is giving you a better opportunity to win.

Of course other unique situational factors occur like a new starting pitcher from the minors or trades changing dynamics of teams. If you choose to use this method, you will develop your own personal tastes in which you can have the same success as I’ve had in betting baseball over the years since developing this method.

Learning Baseball Better

If you are a real baseball fan and have an interest to learn while watching or wagering on baseball, you should be watching Monday night's on ESPN. Play-by-play announcer Dan Shulman is one of the best in the business. Always prepared, insightful and never afraid to interject a well thoughtout opinion. Joining him are Steve Phillips, former Mets GM and Orel Hershiser, a long time MLB pitcher, who also served as pitching coach for Texas and later worked in the front office for the Rangers.


Phillips is the key ingredient, with a different perspective than typical analysts. He not afraid to offer an opinion and will go after a player for not hustling or what he perceives as poor judgement by a manager. He will tackle issues concerning team's front office work, though occasionally will take on sorrow grapes persona from his previous work. Nevertheless, no shortage of keen insights on the various aspects of baseball.


Hershiser's expertise is pitching and is able to explain what he sees much like he pitched, with precision. Hershiser can go quiet in the booth and does much better with a strong play-by-play guy like Shulman. Additionally, with Phillips bringing up thought provoking topics, he engages Hershiser to share his thoughts, which are often excellent.


While a big fan of Jack Buck paired with almost anyone, I can't imagine anyone with a real interest in baseball not coming away with three-to-five really intriguing bits of information, they would not have learned if they had not watched.

Boston this big a Favorite? Maybe

Who would have thought the Boston Celtics would have been the team to hold up the proceeding, making this the last conference semi-final to commence in the NBA playoffs? The dynamics of a Cleveland and Celtics series are exhilarating, though for the most part flawed, as was shown in each team’s first round matchups. Boston’s a huge betting favorite to win the series, but should they be?

Most sportsbooks have Boston as -800 favorite or higher to win series over the Cavaliers, with five games the most popular exact bet at 3-2 odds. The Celtics needed seven games to dismiss of what appears to be up and coming Atlanta franchise, yet last we checked they are still the Hawks. For a team that was 31-10 on the road with 28-13 ATS record, they were awfully unsure of themselves. What has to be a real concern for coach Doc Rivers, off his first ever playoff series win, is his team was outscored 74-54 in three games in Atlanta in the four quarter, never once making it to 20 points in final stanza. It was Kevin Garnett passing up open shots, Paul Pierce losing poise and reportedly flashing L.A. gang signs, while Ray Allen will not be accused of being Robert Horry in clutch situations. The Celtics are 39-6 and 29-15-1 at TD Banknorth Garden, where they will be the first two games. The Pierce posse is 9-1 ATS after game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 35 percent or less this season.

Cleveland took one game longer to defeat Washington than expected, after LeBron James put an end to the Wizards nonsense in six. The Cavaliers are nowhere near as athletic as Atlanta, yet with James, could create a lot of difficulties for Boston. As Joe Johnson showed, the Celtics have matchup issues with swing players that can shoot or drive to the basket from different angles. James is a superior passer to Johnson, or anyone else the Hawks had, which creates opportunities for shooters like Delonte West, Daniel Gibson and Wally Szezerbiak. If these guys make shots, Cleveland becomes much more dangerous. On the year, Cleveland was only 12-18 as road underdogs, yet managed 17-13 ATS record. Coach Mike Brown’s team also does a good job competing, with 13-5 ATS record versus good shooting teams, making 46 percent or more of their shots this season.

LeBron’s will is probably worth a victory or two, especially as underdog and if his teammates follow his lead and Boston is cavalier in approach again, who knows. Boston is still the more talented team with more playmakers, nonetheless six or seven games can not be ruled out. These teams split four contests with Cleveland covering three. Can easily see the Cavs covering the majority of these East semi-final affairs, with the Under being strongest total play throughout the series.

Doug's take - Celtics in six

Betting first two Series of Round Two

The Conference semi-finals begin with a pair of high quality 2 vs 3 matchups, certain to bring a smile to every hoops fan and professional basketball bettor. While upsets are exciting, invariably in the NBA playoffs, it makes for a less than entertaining seven game series in the next round. Each series has one terrific individual head to head matchup which should be reason enough for any hoop head to want to watch.





(3) Orlando vs (2) Detroit Pistons -340 to win series

When these teams met in the playoffs last year, Detroit swept Orlando 4-0, with the Magic at least being competitive from wagering perspective with 1-1-2 ATS record. This season Orlando has make marked improvement, having the third best record in the Eastern Conference. A sure sign of the maturation of the Magic has been winning on the road, were only Boston and the Lakers has better records, with Orlando 27-14 SU and ATS during the regular season. What changed for Orlando was the continued evolution of Dwight Howard, who is inching ever closer to his All-Star Superman persona. He’s emerged as the league’s best center and has a fresh cockiness to his game, without be obnoxious. Hedu Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis have worked cohesively with Howard. If opposing team’s double down on Howard, one or both is open to drill jump shots, or if they start hot early, it opens up the middle for Howard to maneuver more freely. It is no coincidence the Magic 15-6-1 ATS as road dogs and will have a chance to steal Game One of the series.


Rasheed Wallace will be assigned the job of controlling the Orlando big man and he will use his array of tricks to do so. Wallace will kick, knee, push and hold Howard every chance he gets and that starts during the center jump. Wallace will carry a running dialogue to get in his head. From a skill standpoint, Wallace will hope the jump shot is working, forcing Howard out from under the basket, making room for Antonio McDyess, Tayshaun Prince and Richard Hamilton to work underneath. Detroit is 31-12 ATS versus teams like Orlando who make six or more 3-point shots a game on the season. The most evident advantage the Pistons have is in the backcourt, with Hamilton and Chauncey Billups. Orlando turns the ball over three more times per game on average than Detroit, which for practical purposes gives the Pistons four free points a game. Coach Flip Saunders has to encourage Billups to get the ball up the floor faster, as he’s started annoying habit of walking the ball up, wasting three or four seconds per possession.


If this was 2009, no hesitation in taking Orlando to win this series, but as the Pistons showed in last two Philadelphia games, when motivated, they can still play.



Doug's Take – Detroit -340 in six



(3) San Antonio vs (2) New Orleans Spurs -150 to win series


Tony Parker vs Chris Paul for at least four consecutive hook-ups, delicious. A number of experts didn’t even think these two would get together, for the same basic reason, just looking at it differently. Paul and New Orleans were greener than a plush spring lawn in playoff experience to take down fragile, yet battle tested Dallas. The Spurs having won four NBA titles were considered to be like Wilford Brumley (oatmeal guy), to ancient to stand to the charges of a retooled Phoenix squad. In the end, both had plenty of what they needed and handled opponents with ease.


It’s a benefit for the Hornets to have already play San Antonio four times this season (2-2 SU & ATS, because an unsuspecting opponent would have thought they’d been mugged and cheated). New Orleans will open at home as favorites, where they covered 21 of last 28 (75 percent). Chris Paul will still be able to penetrate, just not as often. How you beat San Antonio is with EXTREME patience. You have to be willing to continually settle for 15-18 foot jump shots and you have to make 42-48 percent of them every game. The Spurs will hang out the “Closed” sign most of the time in the lane and as the Suns saw again, they will jump out to defend the three-ball. Dribbling like Steve Nash does is open invitation to hacks and slaps on the wrist, which San Antonio just doesn’t get called for. David West and Tyson Chandler are going to need super-sized series, because the Spurs refuse to beat themselves.


The San Antonio Spurs are the New England Patriots. Loved and admired in the early years of gathering championships, now vilified everywhere but San Antonio metro. Why Greg Popovich will be in the Hall of Fame as a coach is his attention to detail. Since becoming the Spurs coach, he’s been without peer and has developed Bill Belichick dismissive persona to further harbor dislike. No matter one’s feelings, Pops has three stars and like a handyman’s toolbox, he has just the right tool to find sitting on the bench to defeat any opponent. Oddsmakers make it impossible to collect money on a consistent basis on the Black and Silver clad Spurs, thus all they do is win games, especially this time of year.


The Spurs are only 23-20 and 16-27 ATS on the road this season and will not have home court advantage. This often is the first true signal of decline. Just maybe the Hornets 33-11 and 28-16 ATS home record can surprise, especially knowing San Antonio is just 7-12 SU and against the spread as the visitor since Jan. 1 against teams that made the postseason.



Doug's Take – New Orleans +120 in seven

Sun Setting in Phoenix

Yesterday I explained why it was right to let Avery Johnson go, today I'll explain why current Phoenix Suns coach will resign. Let's start with the fact Mike D'Antoni firmly believes his offensive style of play can and does work. His belief of pushing the ball up and shooting within seven seconds (roughly) helped turn around a Phoenix franchise going nowhere. Where he and his team ran into problems was the playoffs. D'Antoni never seemed to grasp that his team couldn't will the opposition into playing faster and his team played too poor of defense, especially at critical junctures to win enough series.

Steve Kerr has a resume that included playing for championship teams in both Chicago and San Antonio. He was always a glib interview in his playing days and learned to make short direct comments on TNT as analyst. This hardly is cause to make him a GM of an already successful franchise, but he does have more rings than Luc Longley, so maybe that's enough. Of course having an already friendly relationship with owner Robert Sarver was, how do I say this, ahh, a bonus.

Right from the start friction ensued. Kerr, though a shooter with limited defensive skills believes he understood the value of defense and tried to "suggest" to D'Antoni more time needed to be placed on stronger defensive principles. Not surprisingly, D'Antoni embraced this like a head cold and went about his business. While mixed messages surfaced, the three Amigos (Sarver, Kerr, D'Antoni) seemed in agreement bringing Shaq on board was a great idea to enhance the Suns chances of winning NBA title. Of course this did not work, as the Big Cactus showmanship hustle was more for show than results. At 36, Shaq can still be effective, just not as an every game 30+ minutes starter. He was not the reason they lost to the Spurs, it was a collective effort.

Steve Nash is no longer a MVP player, he's probably the fourth best point guard in the West and will not become better at 34 years old. Amare Stoudemire actually flashed unseen defensive skills, but at the four spot, not as a center. Raja Bell is a nice complimentary player at 31 and was anyone really surprised Grant Hill broke down?

D'Antoni so firmly believes in his system, he takes on a Paul Westhead quality in believing offense can win, without enough defense. He also made mistakes against the Spurs, after Boris Diaw got his mojo on in what was a meaningless Game 4, he structured his offense to go thru Diaw in Game 5. Why?

Like Dallas, time has passed this team by. San Antonio had less talent, had to go even further further into bag of cheap tricks and through mental toughness survived to beat a mentally soft club.

Kerr has said he wants D'Antoni back, mostly because Sarver owes him 8.5 million for last two years. Kerr want him back IF D'Antoni will change and stress more defense and less offense. With this roster that seems impossible. Look for D'Antoni to resign with severance package, wholly committed to his beliefs in a new location. Kerr then can handpick his coach and seek more balance on both sides of the floor, meaning the Suns record plummets for the short term.

Avery Johnson disowned in Dallas

I saw where Gregg Doyel of CBSSportsline.com called Mark Cuban insane for firing Avery Johnson as the coach of his team. You can read it for yourself, but I support Cuban's decision whole-heartedly. Doyel states, "Johnson didn't go from coaching savant to idiot overnight." What? Johnson a coaching savant? If you took poll of NBA general managers and scouts that watch the various teams play, I guarantee Johnson would only make a handful of anyone top 10, with most listing him at number 10. Take the last three playoff series Dallas has lost.

Playoff basketball is about matchups and coaching adjustments on game by game basis. Three years ago, Dallas was the best team in basketball period. They were up 2-0 in Miami in the Finals and folded quicker than Phil Hellmuth with a three and seven hole card in off suits. The Mavericks completely lost their poise, (which included the coach) and lost to an inferior Miami team. Pat Riley made adjustments of which Johnson had no clue to counter.

Last season Dallas was the one seed and Golden State was eighth. I'll give anybody the Warriors were a bad matchup for Dallas based on the styles of the two teams. Still, you have to ask yourself, each team played 82 games to earn their postseason spot. Should a well-coached team with better talent, ever lose four games to an 8-seed? The answer is without a doubt NO. Johnson had no answers, this fragile mix of headcases that collapse at the first sign of adversity did not have the leadership on the floor or from the coach to defeat Don Nelson's tricky team.

This season, the Mavericks regressed, ending up the seventh seed in the difficult Western Conference and barely with a whimper were dismissed by New Orleans who had as much playoff experience a Clippers fan. Some will feel sorry for Johnson saddled with Jason Kidd whose career is over and just needs to be told. But the truth is he was never comfortable with Devin Harris, thus Cuban and the front office rolled snake-eyes.

A look at the Dallas roster shows a lot of players that will be 30-years old or more, meaning they are not likely to get better. Johnson's had three solid years to deliver a title to Big D and failed, for the most part, miserably. Myself, I'd hire a hard-ass coach the players would respect and take one more shot, adding a few missing ingredients. I'd make Josh Howard captain of the team (though that could go up in smoke) and move beyond Dirk, since he's has ample opportunity. Will this work, I doubt it, but you can't get rid of all the softies at once.

Attack the Phoenix situation tomorrow.

Weekend Observations

Went to California and Arizona State college baseball game this past Friday night. Both teams came in rated in the top seven in polls. The Sun Devils are noted this season for ability to hit and they did just that in piling up 11 runs. About eight MLB scouts by my count, were at the game to watch Bears RH Tyson Ross. Never was able to get a good angle to see how hard he actually threw, but was intrigued about how they scouted a prospect. Of course they checked his velocity early, they waited a couple of innings and checked again. When his pitch count was getting up in numbers, the scouts pulled the radar guns out again.

Ross reminded me of old Cardinals RH Jaquin Andujar. His body type was very loose. On this night he did not has his best stuff in allowing eight hits and five walks in just over five innings. What was most impressive, was his ability to change speeds with undetectable motion.

In the NBA, the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks are like a chocolate chip cookie right out of the oven. They look delicious, pass the taste, but after being exposed to the elements (in this case the NBA Playoffs), they crumble apart after a few days. As it turns out, these teams are poorly constructed for postseason basketball, have the heart of the Tin Man and are much like the cowardly lion (lacking courage for those not familiar) from the Wizard of Oz.

Both will be eliminated soon and the owners of each team will have to ask themselves is it time to start over, because each had a shot and failed to win a title when they could have.

I used to admire the San Antonio Spurs, the organization was and probably still is the best in the basketball. While still holding the organization in high regard, the Spurs players and coaching staff have turned into whiny babies. Every trip to the lane should result in a foul on the opposition. For the most part, San Antonio players NEVER commit fouls, unless they intentionally do so, otherwise Coach Pop trots out the standing stare at the referees. Greatness is something to be appreciated and is often not, but when you have to stoop to have players like Bruce Bowen, cry about every call and do the cretinous Hack-a-Shaq ploy, is this really what champions are made of? The Admiral, David Robinson embodied what was right about the San Antonio franchise.

Winning Big Money on NFL Draft

All right, maybe not BIG money, but at least got your attention to read on and who knows, maybe you can cash in. Imagine talking to your friends on Monday and telling them you picked up a few hundred dollars or even more betting on the NFL Draft! My assignment was to study all the aspects of where players are going. In order to make you money with my selections, I’ve channeled the spirits of Mel Kiper, Todd McShay and other draft gurus to assure I can be correct.

One difference everyone will see in this year’s 2008 draft is the pace. In the first round, teams will have 10 minutes to make their selections instead of 15. The second-round window will be seven minutes. Rounds 3 through 7 will be five minutes. That will mean all the talking heads will have to get up to speed, with less boring time.

I’ll rate my prop selections from various sportsbooks on a 1-5 basis, with five being the best plays.

Number of Quarterbacks taken in Round One (Over/Under 1.5)

What a toughie to start with. Matt Ryan will of course be picked and based on history it would make sense Brian Brohm would be taken. However, in surveying the landscape of immediate needs, not sure who really needs a signal caller and seeing the amount of money that would be required to sign one and have him sit, not sure any NFL team will do that. That said somebody is sure to pull boneheaded move and draft a player they don’t really need. Still with this year’s crop of QB’s filled with uncertainty, bet the Under on this prop. Rating -2

Number of Running Backs taken in Round One (Over/Under 4)

Heavy action on the Under, now up to -350 in this spot. The only true every down back is Darren McFadden, whose skill set includes taking the ball out of the shotgun formation. Next is Rashard Mendenhall, who though doesn’t possess the straight line speed of DM, has more then enough gitty-up and can run inside or outside, just ask USC. Jonathan Stewart is the last sure-fire first round selection. He is the perfect complimentary back to a team that has shifty starter. What makes this an Over wager is Felix Jones is available. Dallas in no longer enamored with Julius Jones and will want somebody new to tag with Marion Barber. Owner Jerry Jones is Arkansas grad, loves to play GM on draft day and Jones went to what college, that’s right Arkansas. Play Over to cash +270 ticket. Rating -4

Number of Wide Receivers taken in Round One (Over/Under 3)

Based purely on talent, its hard to make a case more than one wide receiver will be taken in the top 11, since Buffalo looks to be hooked on Devin Thomas. Malcolm Kelly and James Hardy have first round ability and likely will be taken, but sure things, hardly. Going to pass here, because other then these three, nobody else is worthy, and need does not seem to be an issue.

Number of Offensive Linemen taken in Round One (Over/Under 6)

With Jake Long already heading to Miami, six more are needed to go Over. Like the Dolphins, Chicago, Atlanta and Kansas City appear to have pressing needs, taking the total to four. Talent wise, a number of outstanding linemen are available. As is the case most years, you’ll see a run at a certain position as GM’s sometimes panic if the guy they pegged gets picked. Thus they’ll go with the logic of protecting the quarterback and making the running game click and sense there is enough depth at this position, seven offensive linemen is a real possibility. Play Over 6. Rating -3

Number of Defensive Backs (CB/S) taken in Round One (Over/Under 5.5)

This prop wager all hinges on what Baltimore does. If Matt Ryan falls to eight, expect the Ravens to draft him. That would mean five would be the correct number for this bet, making Under the play. If Atlanta takes Ryan, Baltimore could take Leodis McKelvin or Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie. Kenny Phillips from Miami will be taken, as will Mike Jenkins. Corner Aqib Talib might be the best in the entire draft, however character issues make him late first rounder, possibly in Green Bay. Antoine Cason will be the sixth DB chosen, sending this number Over, if Ryan is gone by number eight slot. I’m betting he is thus wagering the -115. Rating -3

Chris Long - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 3.5)

Be serious. The Rams are taking Howie’s kid as the number two pick. Granted, -200 is a little rich, but think of it as betting the Patriots against the Jets on the money line. If by some crazy chance, St. Louis goes with Glen Dorsey, look for Atlanta to trade down and team that covets Long take him third. Rating-5

Darren McFadden - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 5.5)

Al Davis has always been enamored with speed, thus expect him to take McFadden at four and try to move one of the dozen other running backs under contract during the draft. Play Under. Rating-3

Matt Ryan - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 7.5)

Play Over, as Atlanta gets cold feet. Rating -3

Glenn Dorsey - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 2.5)

Betting Chris Long to St. Louis, making this Over play. Rating -3

Sedrick Ellis - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 8.5)

Indications are Cincinnati at nine, believe the USC DT will be available and take him here. Play Over. Rating – 4

Vernon Gholston - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 6.5)

If Kansas City doesn’t take him at five to replace Jared Allen, the Jets almost assuredly will next at six. Play Under- Rating -4

Rashard Mendenhall - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 15.5)

It seems to be no coincidence that the number chose for this prop and the Detroit Lions draft position is identical (15 that is). Play Under with the Lions needing a first rate running back to go with new offensive philosophy. Rating -4

Jonathan Stewart - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 20.5)

Tricky call here on the former Oregon Duck. He’s had his share of injuries, making durability concerns real. He’s a big back, who can cut on a dime, making him prone to ankle injuries over the short and long term. The Eagles (19th) or Seahawks (25th) are the logical teams for Stewart to be chosen by. My guess is Philadelphia does defensive backfield and Seattle scoops him up. Play Over. Rating -1

DeSean Jackson - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 27.5)

What team has aging quarterback, a lead receiver in his mid-30’s and no other consistent outside threat? If you guessed Tampa Bay, you are correct. The Bucs draft 20th, meaning DeSean Jackson will be wearing pewter, red and white in the fall. Rating -5

Which Player Will Get Drafted 1st

Darren McFadden -140 vs Matt Ryan +110
Challenging wager, picking McFadden as Atlanta doesn’t pull the trigger on Ryan. Rating -3

Chris Long +140 vs Glenn Dorsey -180
Everything I’m reading suggests Long to St. Louis as second selection. Rating -5

Briam Brohm -260 vs Chad Henne +200
If Atlanta passes on Ryan, this is where they pick up Brian Brohm to fill quarterback needs. Rating -3

Joe Flacco +105 vs Chad Henne -135

Even with all the good things heard about Flacco, that was February, this April, does any organization take a flyer on a quarterback or look around the NFL, with the number of Wolverines QB’s that have cashed paychecks the last 15 years. Pick Henne. Rating -2

Jonathan Stewart -180 vs Felix Jones +140
Even though Jones appears headed to Dallas at 28th slot, rumors are starting to percolate, Arizona might jump in and take Jones. I’d still lean with Stewart; however hearing enough talk this could be real. Rating -1

Total SEC Players Drafted in the 1st Round (Over/Under 6.5)

An uncertain wager on Under, with Marcus Harrison of Arkansas the one player that could tip the scale the wrong way. Rating-1

Total ACC Players Drafted in the 1st Round (Over/Under 6.5)

After careful study, don’t find the seventh player, mark this play as an Under. Rating-3

Total Big 10 Players Drafted in the 1st Round (Over/Under 4.5)

Four players are set, with Indiana’s James Hardy the variable selection. His inability to play hard all the time has the Under as the play. Rating-2

Total PAC 10 Players Drafted in the 1st Round (Over/Under 4.5)

With such at deep draft at the cornerback position, Antoine Cason is fifth Pac-10 player picked in opening round. Rating -3

Many different sportsbooks are offering wagers on certain players picked in the first round, thought I’d share my absolutely favorite one.

Former Penn State LB Dan Conner to be taken in first round?
This is legalized thievery at +150 for the answer to be NO. Rating-5



Disclaimer- No way to know what teams might make trades that would significantly alter how the draft plays out. Take this into consideration.

If I Were the Coach of NBA Playoff team …….

Three more NBA Playoff games are on the agenda for Friday night, each have a circumstance for the home team. Just like the head coach of these NBA teams, professional basketball bettors have to decide the best course of action to take knowing what they have seen or what they believe. Here is a look at what each home team coach has to do to either get back in the series or take the lead in Game Three.

Before Dallas and New Orleans matched-up, the general consensus was the postseason experience of the Mavericks would be difficult for New Orleans to overcome, since nobody other than the coach Byron Scott had any to speak of. What we have seen in this series is Hornets fly around the Mavs players and sting them at will. Since taking a 52-40 lead in the first half of Game one, Dallas has been outscored 48 points in the last 72 minutes.

"I love adversity," Mavs coach Avery Johnson said. "That's just my whole deal. It's not that I'm always looking for it, but when it comes, I like to hit adversity right in the face. I think when you love adversity and you have a lot of courage under fire, when you're in some adverse situations, it tells you a lot about yourself.

"It can help build confidence, so even though it appears to be challenging, and it has been, I think a lot of great things have come out of this season. We've found out a lot more about ourselves, we found out a lot more about our players and it's been a different kind of year."

Coach Johnson can throw out all the bravado and cheap talk he wants, but he better find a way to get the ball out of Chris Paul’s hands. Paul and Manu Ginobili have been the single most dominant players in the post-season. If I were the Dallas coach, I’d stop fooling around having Jason Kidd attempting (politely used) CP. Look into the eyes of what players on the roster have professional pride and would be willing to take the challenge, even for three or four minute periods. Dallas is 37-19 ATS in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points and should have a large amount of fire in the belly to compete. Also design some junk defenses to throw off rhythm of Hornets’ offense. Demand your players crash the boards since they are 105-61 ATS when they grab four to nine more rebounds than their opponents in a game and have only outrebounded N.O. by total of seven.

Set more screens for Jason Terry to score more off the bench. His production is key; as Terry has to start dropping shots. Dallas is a five-point home favorite at most wagering outlets and needs to prove the 13-game home winning streak (9-4 ATS) is no fluke and bury them early.

Over in Phoenix, the Suns have given away two huge leads in both games against San Antonio, each ending in defeat. While the Suns coaching staff and players feel they are the better team, and they might be, winning games is more important than talking about it. Phoenix is 20-8 ATS when playing with double revenge and will have the home crowd at Planet Orange. (New nickname of arena) If I were Mike D’Antoni, as soon as the Spurs play Hack-a-Shaq, I’d turn right around and foul Tim Duncan immediately. This is part of the mind games Greg Popovich likes to play, so give it right back. It might mess with Duncan’s head a little and let your team know, you aren’t taking this garbage.

Next you sit down with Steve Nash, Amare Stoudemire and the Big Cactus (Shaq) and speak very loudly; telling each of them should know how to defend the pick and roll, especially after seeing 40+ times the last two games and countless times throughout their careers. I’d question their pride as professional NBA players to be so continually embarrassed by the most fundamental play in basketball. With the Spurs just 1-9 ATS in road games after playing two consecutive home games this season, I’d take Boris Diaw and Leandro Barbosa over to the side and ask them if they enjoy playing the Suns or if they’d prefer the winters in Milwaukee. I’d explain this is the postseason, where it the game is different and your teammates need difference-makers, are you going to be that player or should we making travel plans for you?

If I were coaching Phildelphia, I’d tell my youthful charges, Detroit is to be respected for Game Two effort, but they are ripe emotionally to be taken. The city of Brotherly Love is alive with the Flyers winning opening round series in hockey; the Phillies are defending Eastern Division champs in baseball, thus the town is alive. We’re a deserved four point home underdog and everyone assumed the Pistons will just march into the Wachovia Center and take us down. Instead, we are the same team that is 29-17 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more. We’re 10-4-1 ATS following a straight up loss and were 8-4 against the spread after shooting less than 40 percent. (Granted coaches won’t use gambling references).

Coach Mo Cheeks needs F Andre Iguodala to stop playing like rank amateur (5-24 from the field) and start connecting like he has most of the season. Philly will have one major element in their favor, teams like Detroit which are first game home loser, win and cover next game, are only 6-14 SU and ATS in Game Three.

Looking Ahead at NFL Schedule

You have to hand to the NFL, two and a half months after the last meaningful football game was played and more than three months before training camps open, they have managed to be the most talked about sport on the day they released their schedule for the 2008 season. This dominated the conversation on talk radio from coast-to-coast and ESPN took up two hours of prime real estate to bring Chris Carter and Ron Jaworski into your living rooms to discuss all the possibilities.

Our preference here at the 3Daily Winners is to deal in realities, since trying to guess what will be the top games for next season is nearly impossible, especially trying to come up with complete list. Consider only 20 of the last 36 teams (55.5 percent) the last three years have made the NFL playoffs the following year. It was easy to pinpoint a regular season contest between New England at Indianapolis on Nov.4 was going to be an important game; however nobody could have forecasted a late November Green Bay at Dallas tilt would have almost as much importance. In April, we just have to stick with the facts and for those who wager, facts, as opposed to speculation, win far more bets.

The AFC North draws the NFC East, contributing to them having four teams in the top eight in toughest schedules for upcoming season, based on 2007 results. The four teams will face opponents that had a combined record of 574-540, a 56 percent winning percentage.

Pittsburgh drew the most challenging lot at 153-103, 59.8 percent. The Steelers, besides drawing the always competitive NFC East, and having six rugged divisional battles, also picked up four encounters with arguably professional football’s best division, the AFC South. Throw in matchups at New England on Nov.30 and Pitt hosting San Diego two weeks prior and a pretty easy argument can be made today, coach Mike Tomlin will have 16 games he will have to prepare his squad for, with nary a break. Blindly looking at complete schedule, the only Pittsburgh game that might be (+) or (-) seven points or higher is the Patriots.

Indianapolis on paper falls into the number two spot, taking on opponents with 152-104 mark. Their own division figures to have bumpy contests, yet somebody still has to step up and prove they can beat the Colts, otherwise until further notice; they are still the kings of the division. Indianapolis will be playing in new stadium, which to a certain degree negates home field advantage, especially in the front part of the schedule. The Colts, like the rest of division, will take on the NFC North, making their claim as having the second toughest schedule hard to read, as these teams have been volatile the last few seasons. After a bye in Week four, Indy will play four of next six on the road. They will venture to towns like, Houston, Green Bay, Tennessee and Pittsburgh. Between travels to the Titans and Steelers, that team from the Boston area, will return for another early November visit.

For conspiracy theorists, who can’t stand New England, their schedule is tailor made for those thinking the NFL is covering up something, like the folks who talk about Roswell, New Mexico. Of course all schedules are based on formulas predetermined, still when a team goes thru the regular season undefeated and faces teams that were 99-157 (38.7 percent), its hard not to raise an eyebrow. The Patriots would have more taxing slate if the teams in there own division would supply more competitive games. New England was 12-5 ATS most recently in the AFC East, before oddsmakers threw a couple of 20+ numbers for them to overcome against the Jets and Miami. Owner Robert Kraft’s club also drew the West Divisions from each conference, both who presently look average at best. It will be interesting to see how the organization approaches four trips to the Pacific Time zone, as they have two sets of these. Will they stay out West to prepare for a second game in that area or do they add to wear and tear of flying back and forth?

Don’t expect oddsmakers to cut bettors any slack on the Pats. After putting gargantuan numbers late last season, they won’t hesitate a second to do so again to balance or place the action in their favor.

Moving on, questions are raised about the importance of trying to determine what schedules mean before a single game is played. One area to dig into is how Super Bowl champions perform the next season. In breaking down the last six Lombardi trophy winners, there schedule of opponents winning percentage turned out be pretty accurate, after the season, as compared to before the year started. The largest gap was the 2003 Patriots who had the eighth toughest schedule coming in and exited with the 22nd hardest leaving. The difference was 52.7 percent compared to 48.4 percent. For New York Giants backers and those seeking an edge, this was the only team of the prior five Super Bowl champs to post a winning spread record the next season, as they marched to back-to-back titles. The other four champs were 29-34-1 ATS.

2007 Giants TBD
2006 Indianapolis 12-4 8-8 ATS
2005 Pittsburgh 8-8 7-9 ATS
2004 New England 10-6 8-8 ATS
2003 New England 14-2 11-3-2 ATS
2002 Tampa Bay 7-9 6-9-1 ATS

The next question pertains to the most difficult schedules prior to the season, what does it mean for a teams record and against the spread? One element that has to be mentioned is the relative strength of the team. If any NFL squad is already a poor outfit, a more arduous slate will likely prevent any real gains in terms of wins and losses. If another club is a perennial playoff contender, they could be affected either positively or negatively, based on how they play in conjunction with higher grade of opposition.

In 2007, Oakland came into the season with worst record and hardest schedule. The Silver and Black showed modest improvement, raising record to 4-12 and 6-10 ATS. Buffalo was tied with the Raiders, facing most burdensome sked and was 7-9 with 10-6 ATS mark. In 2006, The Giants were off a playoff season was tied with Cincinnati with he most grueling card. New York, after a fast start, faded late and had to win last game of the regular season to finish 8-8 (7-8-1 ATS), to return to postseason. The Bengals were believed to be the team on the rise; however the scheduling gods got them and they were 8-8, with 8-7-1 ATS record. Overall, the last 11 teams that went into the year with the most strenuous slate were 85-83-8 against the spread.

A few sportsbooks will offer props on teams to make the playoffs. If you can find one that lists any of the teams that have the hardest schedule, should you place wager for or against? It would not be wise to book a hotel in Pittsburgh for a Steelers postseason party, as only three of the last 11 teams that played trying agenda made the playoffs.

The opposite end of the spectrum will come into question again in 2008. Teams that have had the easiest program to work around have only made the playoffs once of the last seven squads trying to work through what was thought to be easier schedule. Only the 2003 Seattle Seahawks at 10-6, made the NFL playoffs. This was a sorry grouping, with 44-68 record and 50-60-2 ATS mark.

A few observations………….

Bettors will have plenty of time to see what they think about Green Bay starting another quarterback for the first time since 1992, when Aaron Rodgers goes under center on Sept. 8, a Monday night affair with division foe Minnesota.

This is just the beginning, as Buffalo will start with one “home” game in Toronto on Dec.7. With Buffalo’s decaying population and reports as many a 20 percent of season ticket holders coming from north of the border, look for the Bills to have similar arrangement the Packers used to have with Milwaukee in divvying up home games.

Chicago drew the unwanted honor of being the only team to play three consecutive road games, though none are far away. In order, the Bears are at Green Bay, St. Louis and Minnesota. Conversely, the NFL schedule maker rewards them with three straight home contests right afterwards in December. The first two are against warm weather-types, Jacksonville and New Orleans in five days, on a Sunday-Thursday swing. If Da Bears could win both at Soldiers Field, they will have 11 days to prepare for Favre-less Packers.

San Diego will accumulate the most frequent flyer miles, a whopping 33, 516 air miles. The Chargers will make four trips into the Eastern Time zone, plus a sojourn to London. At least the league sort of helped out San Diego in regards to flying to England, playing in Buffalo the week before, shortening distance dramatically, if not improving home lives.

On the subject of travel, why is New Orleans burdened with having to go to London and losing second home game in four years? It was bad enough during Hurricane Katrina; the NFL had the Saints charade as “home” team in the Meadowlands versus the Giants, but to take away another game out of the Bayou! Even San Diego General Manager A.J. Smith, whose team is the visitor, is puzzled why New Orleans was shafted again. "Why do we have the [eight] home games, and all of a sudden the people in New Orleans don't have an opportunity; they've lost one? I don't know," Smith said. "I'm sure they have a system. Maybe it's a coin flip.'' According to NFL spokesperson Michael Signora, no coin flip was involved. Signora said it simply was "a league decision." Nice.

Matchups

About Me

Do you really want to know about me? My name is Doug Upstone. I’ve been involved in the sports handicapping in some form or another entire adult life.

Nobody, I repeat nobody, watches and studies the games more than I do. I have game notes and observations dating back almost two decades. I’m a process person, meaning I have power ratings in different sports and like to determine if the lines are accurate, and I definitely start with the fundamentals when handicapping games.

This blog will be about people wanting to learn about sports. I’ve worked diligently to get to this point and have a group of “friends” who are not afraid to wager on sports, they are good and have the cash to back it up. Their selections will be on this site in the not too distant future. The actual creator behind this blog is Paul Buck, who has a strong desire to stay out of the limelight, and is part of the Left Coast Connection, which will be explained later.

Of course a blog is about writing and reading, I’ve learned the basic concepts of both. The whole point is to learn something you didn’t know and have it be useful in your knowledge of sports and wagering if you care to.

Greg Maddux - Go Figure

Sometimes sports makes absolutely no sense. Gregg Maddux is a first ballot Hall of Famer five years after he retires, no question. He's among the smartest pitcher in this or any era, as he never had a Randy Johnson fastball, or a knee buckling curve. Maddux has expertly been able to spot the ball where he needed and made hitters swing at his pitches. For those old school enough to remember Catfish Hunter with Oakland and the Yankees, very similar.

For all his greatness, the Arizona Diamondbacks have been his Waterloo. After three sharp efforts in 2008, leading to the 42-year old hurler to own 2.00 ERA, be started in the desert Friday night and was blown up for six runs in the first inning by Arizona and had to suck it up, with the Padres having no other pitchers available, having played 22-innings the night prior. Maddux ended up throwing 113 pitches in seven innings, be thumped for 13 hits and nine runs.

Since joining the league in 1997, the D-Backs are 13-2 versus Maddux, hanging a ERA well over 5 on him. When it comes to Arizona, you'd have to believe Maddux is just snake bit.

Saturday Betting Notes

Last night went 3-2 in bases, with winners on St. Louis, Arizona and Tex/Bos.-Over. Kansas City and the Dodgers were losers. Can't complain, being fifth in MLB at FSM. Stepped out on Arizona, playing them at -167 money line. Normally don't play favorites above -150, especially in April; however the Snakes were in a system that was 22-3, thus made the wager. Arizona ended up winning 9-0.

Took Washington and Dallas as NBA series plays. I'm not sold that Cleveland is really any good right now. Many believe King James can lift the Cavs all by himself to win this series. While that sounds great, who does he pass the ball to for dependable scoring? Ben Wallace is a absolute liability on offense, meaning even a so-so defensive team like the Wizards can guard five on four. Washington hung in their the whole season, overcoming injuries and is as healthy as they have been all year. Three very good players against one great one, Washington wins.

Some people don't believe New Orleans lack of playoff experience is a detriment, quite the contrary in my opinion. I see it causing them problems and Dallas really has no pressure on them being the underdog. I'm first in line to believe the Mavs are mentally weak and can fall apart like muffin. Yet now they have no expectations and sting Hornets advancing.

I did pass on Dallas today with the +4.5 and even though they are 14-2 ATS as playoff dogs, don't like the fact they drilled New Orleans at home Wednesday.

Today playing the White Sox to win, and took Washington Caps to win game five. Actually liked Brewers and Royals also, but decided to pass because Suppan hasn't gotten anybody out this season and K.C. currently is offensively challenged.

NBA Playoffs –Key Saturday Game One Info

The first day of the NBA playoffs will have a Western flavor, with three of the contests involving squads from the Western Conference. The one series figuring to be an attention grabber for fans and basketball bettors alike is Phoenix and San Antonio. The Suns loss to the Spurs in the West finals left a bitter taste with suspensions of key players, in rough-house work started by Robert Horry. Upstart New Orleans will try to follow season long success with opening win against Dallas. The other two series on Saturday are 4vs5 matchups, each with a flavor on their own.

(4)Washington at (5) Cleveland (-2.5, 188)

Key Game Info:
LeBron James and his Cleveland teammates will see Washington for the third straight time in the first round. James has said he and the Cavs aren’t going to get caught up in trashing talking; he’ll leave that to Washington. The Wizards DeShawn Stevenson was quoted as saying James is “overrated”. With Washington tired of being eliminated by Cleveland and the Cavaliers not want to hear “talk”, intensity level is expected to be a fever pitch.

Key Side Trends:
-Wizards are 21-10 ATS as a road underdog this season.
-Wizards are 8-1 ATS with two days rest.
-Cavaliers are 4-12 ATS in home games versus good ball handling teams committing 14 or less turnovers a game this season.
-Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven playoff games as a favorite.

Key Total System:
Play UNDER on all teams like Washington, where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points after going over the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. (31-10, 75.6 percent L3Y)

Season Series: 2-2 SU and ATS, 3-1 OVER
History at Cleveland: Cavaliers 8-2 and 4-6 ATS vs Wizards

(6)Phoenix at (3) San Antonio (-4,194)

Key Game Info:
This game and series has it all. Defense vs Offense, Shaq vs Mr. Fundamental, Bruce Bowen against every Suns fan imaginable. Expect Shaquille O’Neal to be extremely motivated and Amare Stoudemire trying to make immediate statement. Steve Nash and the Suns guards have to take care of the basketball. Suns frontcourt can’t let San Antonio to play volleyball on offensive glass. Spurs will undoubtedly be composed, use every trick in the book to get Phoenix players more worried about things other than the game at hand.

Key Side Trends:
-Suns are 11-2 ATS in road games versus teams who average seven or less steals a game on the season.
-Suns are 5-0 ATS with two days of late.
-Spurs are 14-6 ATS in home games after two or more consecutive wins this season.
-Spurs are 8-19 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less.

Key Total System:
Play UNDER all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points in the first round and first game of the playoffs. (36-12, 75 percent L11Y)

Season Series: Suns 3-1 SU & ATS, 4-0 UNDER
History at San Antonio: Spurs 6-3 and 4-5 ATS vs Suns

(7)Dallas at (2) New Orleans (-4.5, 193)

Key Game Info:
How will New Orleans react in first playoff game? Chris Paul has been the best point guard in the NBA this season and David West is legit All-Star. Peja Stojakovic and Morris Peterson are excellent deep threats and Tyson Chandler is hustler in the paint. Dallas one year ago was the favorite to win NBA title and now is in the role of underdog for this game and the series. The Mavericks could learn from last year and jump on New Orleans early by stealing opening game and putting the pressure on them.

Key Side Trends:
-Mavs are 14-2 ATS as playoff underdogs.
-Mavs are 5-13 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams making 76% or more of their attempts.
-Hornets are 23-14 ATS as a home favorite this season.
-Hornets are 15-4 ATS in a home game when the total is between 190 and 194.5 points.

Key Total System:
Play UNDER all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points after teams like Dallas, after failing to cover four of their last five against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. (29-9, 76.3 percent L5Y)

Season Series: 2-2 SU & ATS, 3-1 OVER
History at New Orleans: Hornets 2-4 and 2-3-1 ATS vs Mavs


(4)Utah at (5) Houston (-1, 186)

Key Game Info:
Must win for Houston, who is without Yao Ming, PG Rafer Alston won’t play and Tracy McGrady is dinged. The Rockets have to control tempo and force the ball out of the hands of Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer, who can be a deadly combination. Though just average defensively, look for coach Jerry Sloan to have his team contest every Houston shot and play fast to wear down Rockets late in the game. A loss by Houston shakes the foundation without enough weapons moving forward.

Key Side Trends:
-Jazz are 0-4 in last four playoff underdog appearances.
-Jazz are 17-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of this season.
-Rockets are 24-10 ATS in the second half of this season.
-Rockets are 9-2-1 ATS facing a team with losing road record.

Key Total System:
Play UNDER all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points, with a good 3PT shooting team like Utah (>=36.5%) against an average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%), in a game involving two good ball handling team (<=14.5 turnovers). (34-16, 68 percent this year)

Season Series: Jazz 2-1 SU & 1-1-1 ATS, 2-1 OVER
History at Houston: Rockets 5-4 and 4-5 ATS vs Jazz

Miguel Tejada comes of age

Don't you just love Miguel Tejada. For starters Baltimore moves him to Houston to remove the 14, 811, 414.00 salary he has coming in 2008. (Those two commas mean millions) He's being investigated by the Justice Department for steroid use and might be brought in at some point to testify. Now the latest news, for the Astros to find out, their 14 million shortstop is 33 years old, not 31 as they most likely believed.

It has often been reported and an area of concern, Dominican Republic players are often older than alleged age. ESPN E:60 correspondent Tom Farrey presented Tejada with a copy of a birth certificate, filed by his father in his hometown of Bani, that showed he was born on May 25, 1974 on 1976. (At least the date is the same) Tejada upon being presented with this information, got up and left the interview.


Houston management now having even more egg on their face, wea quick to spin the situation. "Fact of the matter is that he plays like he's 25, so I don't think it really matters a whole lot," Astros GM Ed Wade told the Houston Chronicle. Good one Ed, 33-year old shortstop making 14 mil. I wonder if GM Billy Beane is interested in Oakland about bring back one of his guys?


Have you seen Kansas City Royals starting pitchers yet? Kansas City isn't going to win the AL Central this year, but they might have three quality starting pitchers, which is more than many major league teams can say. Gil Meche is at the top of the rotation and truthfully he's been mediocre; however look for him to come around. Behind him is 24-year Zach Greinke who is 3-0 with 0.75 ERA. Next is Brian Bannister, at 27-years of age, also 3-0 with 0.86 ERA. Nobody expects them to continue to pitch this way; however for the first time is a VERY long long time, the Royals could go into far more series with a chance to win. Now if the bats wake from slumber......

Today played Cardinals at -114, and bullpen failed giving up five runs from the eight inning out in losing to Milwaukee. Liked the White Sox playing well and their bullpen could not hold three run in the eight either, in losing 6-5 to Baltimore. Played Seattle, got my finger crossed.

The Flyers went to 2OT before I could finally find a winner today.


Someday's your the annoying bug, other day's you're the windshield. Losing two MLB games with the lead late in the game in extra innings is just bad luck.

Baseball Betting Being Bery Bery so far

Off to a nice start in baseball, with the Yankees and St. Louis both winning tonight. For the season now at 15-8, + 7.3 units. For all those doubters out there, my picks are monitored at FreeSportsmonitor.com and at Wagerline.com. I like FreeSportsMonitor because those using are realistic. You can tell those using this monitor are serious, likely either playing or selling their picks. Not like some of those other sites where guys put in 20 plays a day and if they get lucky, they can hit a hot streak for extended period of time, playing money lines, pumping up fraudulent records.


You will notice my record varies from that at FreeSportsMonitor, for one reason only. Sometimes the lines they have are rotten. For example, I might find three books that would have lets say the Red Sox at -124 and I'll go to FSM and they'll have it at -145. No self-respecting bettor would actually bet into such a bad line, thus in keeping with integrity, I won't "place Bet" so to speak. That is why I use Wagerline, because they have realistic numbers you would find anywhere.


You've never see 3DW anywhere near the top of their leaderboards, because as I said, refuse to have monitored results with false (good or bad) record. You can easily see my current results and look into archives here to see past accomplishments. I almost forgot, I mess around with USASportsMonitor.net. I've used for quite awhile and don't have good reason why I still place picks there, other than I've done it for a long time. Probably will drop come next football.


Baseball is a hard grind that demands certain disciplines to win. I believe I understand those and the week of April 28, I'll start sharing my methods for betting baseball.


Surprised as hell, Detroit Red Wings lost at Nashville tonight. I played them along with the Rangers (at least that won). Thus far in the NHL Playoffs 5-6 -1.33 units. Lots of time to turn that around.


Will have NBA Previews later this week. Until then, I'm out.

Baseball’s Bettors Good, Bad and Ugly

A couple of weeks into the baseball season, certain trends are emerging on all major league baseball teams. Some are what we thought, others have been misjudged early, and some just have an odor similar to the town dump. Here is a first look at who have been good, bad and ugly bets in 2008.

GOOD

Oakland 9-6 +5.7 units
Who knew a trip to Japan can cure what looked like an ugly team. Maybe the Athletics rubbed themselves with Far East magic potion, which has them all playing better than what they are. Sweeping Toronto on the road and beating C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona in back to back games in Cleveland, now that’s impressive. Nobody believes it will last, since this type of teams pops up every April, nevertheless betting on the Athletics earns sharp bettors A+.

Kansas City 8-6 +4.5 units
Brian Bannister and Zack Greinke are both 3-0 for the Royals with ERA’s under one. Kansas City’s pitching and offense are interesting dichotomy, first in runs allowed and next to last in runs scored at 3.3 per game. What is most likely to get worse? Pick spots this month to keep winning with Royals.

Arizona 10-4 +6 units
At least this team made the postseason last year. The D-Backs offense has been scoring runs, leading all of baseball and if Randy Johnson can become a mildly reliable starter at number three or four slot behind Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, Arizona will be Play On team for some time. With young hitters, slumps are inevitable, watch for when the Snakes have two or three games with seven or fewer hits and go the other way.

BAD

Colorado 5-8 -3.7 units
The big question coming into the season was Colorado for real, or just a team that looked like a Coors Light desert mirage, that got hot late? The Rockies starting pitchers have gotten off to rocky start and any staff that has Mark Redman is hurting. The vaunted Colorado lineup has shown less than a nun’s habit, averaging less then four runs an outing. When they Rocks hit, they’ll win, when not, 50-50 wagering proposition.

New York Yankees 8-7 -2.0 units
The Yankees are almost never going to be a good bet, being frontloaded with too many large numbers as favorites. What has made them lousy April wager is 23rd ranked offense. Jason Giambi has a couple of dingers; however has a batting average like a typical summer day in Death Valley, CA, at .107. Joe Girardi already being accused of over-managing.

New York Mets 6-6 -2.5 units
Johan Santana welcome to the Big Apple. In his very first start in Shea Stadium, he was booed for allowing five runs (three homers) in almost seven innings of work in losing to Milwaukee. Johan, this isn’t a cottage on Lake Tranquility in Minnesota, ya der hey. This New York team seems to be built like house of cards, pull one and the whole thing could come down.

UGLY

L.A. Dodgers 6-8 -3.6 units
Part of the problem for the Boys in Blue is bad luck. Facing Jake Peavy twice in the first two weeks doesn’t help and catching aspiring Arizona in the middle of hot streak only exasperates early issues. With steady Joe Torre in the dugout, Brad Penny and Chad Billingsley soon to be hitting stride, Dodgers SHOULD be O.K.

Cleveland 5-9 -7.4 units
Was this team really THAT close to eliminating Boston last year? No matter what time of year, it is never good when your closer (Joe Borowski in this instance, now on DL) has an ERA of 18.00. C.C. Sabathia has earned all F’s in three starts, allowing nine walks in 14 innings. Shaky starting pitching and unreliable bullpen could call for palinode of the Tribe being one of the best teams in American League.

Detroit 4-10 -10.4 units
Saying Detroit is off to a slow start, is like promoting “Leatherheads” for Oscar material. With this offense near the bottom in almost every category, they have posted a ZERO on four different occasions already. Maybe manager Jim Leyland stepping on a few throats or unlikely comeback this past Monday against Minnesota will turn like Tigers around, yet until they show any consistency besides losing, a tough bet either way.

Wagering Info on NHL Playoffs

Five games are on the NHL playoff docket for Tuesday, each holding a great deal of significance for everyone involved. Some series could become a foregone conclusion, some could be headed that direction, while others could really whet the appetite of those betting hockey. For those daring enough to take the underdog or favorite of any sports most unpredictable first round, good luck tonight. Here is betting outlook of each contest tonight.

Montreal at Boston –Canadiens lead 2-1

Boston had lost 12 of 13 games at Montreal and 22 of 26 to the Canadiens, before breaking thru and knocking off the Canadiens in overtime in Game three. The Bruins have to be encouraged with how they are playing, playing Montreal into extra sessions in the last two contests, splitting them. “I’d like to think we can carry over with the momentum,” Boston goalie Tim Thomas said. “It was a big win but (Tuesday) the work starts all over again. It’s a clean slate every game.”

Montreal is 11-4 ATS after a close loss by one goal in their previous game this season, while the Bruins are just 4-9 ATS after allowing two goals or less in next contest. Boston will once again be the underdog, being presented as +115 with total of Un5 at Bookmaker.com, and they have won four in a row in this role.

Washington at Philadelphia –Tied 1-1

Bettors have to wonder, if the Washington surge to make the playoffs has left them winded. The Capitals needed three third period goals to defeat the Flyers in the opener and were shutout at home by Martin Biron in the second game 2-0. Washington coach Bruce Boudreau was succinct about last contest. "I can't put it any plainer," Boudreau said. "Philadelphia outplayed us, outworked us and out-won the battles on us. We now know that we've got to pay a bigger price if we want to succeed."

Maybe the rest will do the Capitals good, being 19-7 ATS with a day off. Rest has benefits for Philadelphia as well, with 10-1 ATS mark in last 11 tries with exactly one day off. Philly is a -130 favorite; however is just 10-21 ATS off a road win by two goals or more. The road team has won five of last six meetings between these combatants, including the Caps taking four straight.

The Versus Network will telecast starting at 7 Eastern.

Anaheim at Dallas- Stars lead 2-0

Talk about your back up against the wall for Anaheim! Memories of last year’s Stanley Cup run are a distant memory for the Ducks who lost both games at home, being outclassed and outscored by seven goals. Anaheim was trying to become the first team in 10 seasons to go back-to-back, now they just need to win a game. Dallas has been known for playoff failures and was believed to be heading for more of the same, closing the regular season 3-10. Instead, future Hall-of-Famer Mike Madano might have had the answer. “I think it was better for us to start on the road to get that mind-set and get really involved in the series,” Modano said.

The Stars come back home 10-1 ATS off a road blowout win by three goals or more over the last two seasons. The Ducks have to quickly regroup and leave the jejune behavior behind. The defending champs are 25-8 after allowing five or more goals in next game. Dallas is -130 favorite with total Un5.

San Jose at Calgary – Flames lead 2-1

To say Calgary was in trouble was like saying the mortgage business is having a few problems, after the Flames trailed 3-0 at home in the first 3:33 of Game three. Off the bench came 40-year backup netminder Curtis Joseph, who went on to stymie the Sharks the rest of the way and Calgary stormed to 4-3 win.

San Jose once again is showing they turn from men to boys come playoff time and have already lost two games they should have won to undermanned Calgary. Possibly the rest will clear the Sharks heads after deflating defeat, as they are 11-2 with one day between games.
Don’t expect the Calgary to flameout as +125 home ice dogs, since they 7-1 ATS in this spot. Hard to imagine 2006 Vezina trophy winner Miikka Kiprusoff will have two bad games in a row.

Minnesota at Colorado – Wild lead 2-1

In the second half of doubleheader on Versus, they will show Game four of the Wild and Avalanche series. Going into the series, Minnesota was a -140 favorite to advance and after three games that all went into overtime, the difference between these two Northwest Division foes is about as thick as a credit card.

Even with the upset win, the Wild are just 2-6 ATS on the road in last eight. Colorado has been one of the best home teams in the NHL for years and is still 9-2 ATS in last 11. Minnesota has long had issues playing with no rest, winning less then 33 percent of the time in over 90 games. The Avs are just 1-5 playing with no days off if last game went into OT. Possibly the playoffs will prove to be different, but the home team has taken 10 of 13, justifying Colorado being -165 favorite.

Phoenix in Hot Super System

The great debate whether the acquisition of Shaquille O’Neal was the right move for the Phoenix Suns was correct or not, probably won’t be answered until the world sees how they perform in the postseason; nevertheless it is as clear as a pristine lake in Utah, it hasn’t worked out for the regular season. Phoenix is only 15-11 (15-10-1 ATS) since O’Neal first donned a Sun uniform, starting with the first game after the All-Star break and they have fallen from second in the West to sixth overall.

Granted, the Western Conference has been an unrelenting beast the entire second half of the season, with all the top teams knocking off one another, yet the fact remains New Orleans had the best record at the break and is still tied for the best record in the loss column with the Lakers. In the proverbial media speak “If the playoffs were to start today”, Phoenix would have to defeat San Antonio, Utah and Kobe and company, without the benefit of home court advantage once, just to make it to NBA finals.

All of this kind of talk can wait until the weekend when the NBA Playoffs commence; instead the attention will be focused on tonight. The Suns finish the regular season at home after winning two of three on the road. The only loss they suffered was at the hands of Houston 101-90. That contest was a perfect example of the public overvaluing a team based on last game played. The Suns had horsewhipped San Antonio two nights before and opened as one point underdogs at Houston. The wagering public jumped on the Phoenix bandwagon and bet them all the way up to 3.5-point road favorites. Steve Nash and his merry mates rocketed to double digit lead, before succumbing to Houston’s defense.

This leads directly into tonight’s meeting with Golden State. The Warriors only chance to make playoffs is to win last two games and have Denver lose at home to miserable Memphis. Most sportsbooks has the Suns favored by five points, all leading a sweet Super System.

Play On home favorites like Phoenix, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, playing with two days rest.

In this case, Coach Mike D’Antoni’s team is a bit peeved about losing and has had two days to prepare. This late in the season, this can be especially valuable for all NBA teams. The club has time to refocus and historically given very solid effort. How good, in the last five years the home team is 43-4 straight up, with 36-9 against the spread record, good for 80 percent winners. This system has been even more helpful to bettors with 24-4, 85.7 percent record the last three seasons.

Since 2004, this has been one of the more gratifying systems to wager on, with winning margin almost 13 points per game.

With the weather heating up in the desert, Phoenix has the appearance of a hot play tonight.