System plays are now up to 11-1 winning day’s record after yesterday. Today’s selection will take more intestinal fortitude, however hard to argue with results. The Mets bullpen prevented a winner on the Trend aspect, giving up run in the bottom of the ninth and losing in extra innings. Let’s see if another streak can be started. Good luck.
System -1) This may take a little courage considering the circumstances. PLAY ON home favorites like Cleveland with a money line of -175 to -250, stranding 6.9 or less runners on base per game on the season, in May games. This system is wallet stuffing 44-4, 91.7 percent the last five seasons.
Trend – 2) Atlanta is 9-0 against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
FREE Selection -3) Nobody from the Left Coast Connection is burning it right now, thus I’ll give my favorite play of the day, which is on the Chicago Cubs.
For Boston, Character Check
Since Boston lost Game Four at Cleveland, to tie that series at 2-2, those wagering and writing about NBA basketball, started to wonder what the Celtics would do if they lost a home game in the playoffs. After a sixth straight defeat two games later and Boston dropping last outing, we will now look for the players have to be asking themselves. As of right now, over 70 percent of those betting are taking Detroit on the money line to win Game Three.
When asked about being down in a series for the first time, Ray Allen responded, “I’m excited about it,” offered Allen. “We just put ourselves in a position where we’ve put our backs up against the wall.” Those words may be true, but they ring more hallow then yelling at the top of your lungs in a deserted part of the Grand Canyon. Most sportsbooks have Boston as five-point underdogs, with total at 175 and those in the know are very weary of backing a club that has yet to cover six in a row in their green uniforms.
What was so apparent in Game two, were the same characteristics the Celtics had shown only on the road. When Detroit showed a more aggressive approach and was not going to bend, Boston cried “uncle” and did not rejoin like a team that won the most games during the regular season. What was especially disheartening, for a team that is 1-4 ATS after not covering, is the Big Three, Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce, all scored in the between 24-26 points and they still lost. That means the other eight players in the game scored 22 points in 124 minutes of combined action. Collectively they were 6-21 from the field. What the last game proved is six players, hustling with intensity, can beat three on the road.
Detroit comes home feeling shrived of opening contest and looking to improve on 39-8 and 30-17 ATS record at the Palace of Auburn Hills. The Pistons are San Antonio-light, without Tim Duncan. You may have more talent than them, but put Detroit in a corner, you better have soaked you face in saltwater, because they are going to dish out punishment. The Pistons will come in 5-1 ATS as playoff favorites.
What does Boston need to do to recapture series advantage, the following. Take the orange round sphere and take it as close as you can to the orange round cylinder that is 10 feet up from the ground. Kevin Garnett, despite scoring, is playing like he is trying to set the Guinness Book of Records for most seven-foot shots taken by a player seven feet tall. He and his teammates need to take it to rim, draw fouls and be more assertive. The Celtics were painfully slow in jumping out on pick and pops, leaving the Pistons with far too many looks. For those of us that wondered if Rajon Rondo was a capable enough point guard to lead his team to NBA championship, the answer is – it depends. When Rondo plays within his limitations, while still be productive, Boston is fine. When he starts making high risk-low reward plays on both sides of the court, he’s a negative. If Rondo plays like the latter, the Celtics fall 2-10 ATS as an underdog.
Detroit has to continue what they just did in last encounter. On offense, run motion offense, with Rip Hamilton a whirling dervish, coming off screens for great looks or in position to create easy hoops for teammates. Don’t rely on isolation plays; Boston is too good defensively, which will curtail offensive output. Let Boston have all the post-up plays they want, they have not shown the ability to take advantage of Pistons double teams and their pass have easily been defendable with simple rotations. At home, get into the Celtics psyche early, based on postseason road efforts, they are mentally vulnerable. Detroit hits the floor fresh with a day off, posting 30-12 ATS mark.
The most enthralling element of Game Three is heart. Does Boston overcome increasingly larger demons to play with desire and intelligence to regain control of the East Finals or does Detroit take step two and show killer instinct that makes other teams cower? The answer will play out on ABC starting at 8:30 Eastern.
Betting NHL Stanley Cup Finals
As frequently inept as the National Hockey League has been run, the suits have to be busting their buttons having this matchup. Detroit and Pittsburgh proved to be the two best hockey teams, each playing in U.S. markets, with recognizable stars. To make this all the more compelling, each is playing at the top of their game, leading anyone to believe this could be a special Stanley Cup Final. For the third year in a row, the finalists did not meet during the regular season, further enhancing the drama, because of the unknown. With NBC in reruns, this will be the best television viewing on the Peacock Network starting Saturday night.
Detroit Red Wings
The Detroit Red Wings are trying for fourth Stanley Cup since 1997 and the have the weapons to complete the task. Detroit had the best record during the regular season, earning home ice advantage, making this among the reasons why they are a -165 favorite to drink from Lord Stanley’s Cup. For the most part, the Red Wings controlled the action in the Western Conference playoffs, registering 12-4 record, with a couple of wobbles against Nashville and Dallas.
Detroit is led by Nicklas Lidstrom, whose resume is heading towards being one of the best defensemen ever in the NHL. Offensive stalwarts like Henrik Zetterburg, Pavel Datsyuk and Tomas Holmstrom make the Red Wings difficult to contain in their own end. One key individual that has been and could be missing is Johan “The Mule” Franzen, who did not play against Dallas with concussion-like symptoms and has not been cleared yet by doctors to play. Detroit’s offense has sputtered for periods without him, as Franzen is still their leading scorer even missing a complete series.
Goalie Chris Osgood took over for a shaky Dominik Hasek in round one and has been airtight in posting 10-2 record. Osgood has benefited from superior defensive play in front of him, facing less than 22 shots a game in the postseason, but has been right when called upon.
Pittsburgh Penguins
The thought of the Pittsburgh franchise being dismantled, moved or whatever the NHL was thinking about, is nothing but a distant memory for a team that might be making several more visits to playing hockey in late May. This is the Penguins first trip back to the Finals since 1992, as they were about to complete back-to-back Cup wins with the great Mario Lemieux, who is now part of the team’s ownership group. Just like those Pittsburgh teams that were offensive-minded and had young stars like Lemieux and Jaromir Jagr, the current collection has two of the brightest stars in the game in Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.
These two have been the driving force, creating physical and mental pressure on defenses, with two scoring lines that are nearly equal, lending to Pittsburgh’s 12-2 postseason mark. To make matter worse for opponents, the third line led by Jordan Staal was virtually unstoppable against Philadelphia, as he scored four goals.
The weak links of the Penguins for several years has been the blue line and goaltending. The race of the cup has proved to be just the opposite. Netminder Marc-Andre Fleury has a 1.70 GAA and .938 save percentage after three rounds, the best in postseason. Defensemen Sergei Gonchar and Brooks Orpik will likely draw the assignment of containing Detroit’s big line and have met every challenge to date. Most of the other Pittsburgh defensemen are talented, yet inexperienced, especially playing on this stage. Fleury and the Pens defense have often been able to play with a lead.
Stanley Cup Prediction
The way to keep Pittsburgh from scoring is play keep away with the puck and Detroit is arguably the best in hockey in doing so. These young talented Pittsburgh skaters have flat out been more talented than the teams they have faced; this will not be the case in the Finals, facing a squad that also has a wealth of experience. Pittsburgh is 25-22 on the road this season and just 5-6 in last 11 in the visitor’s uniforms, taking on Detroit at “The Joe”, where the Red Wings are 36-13. When the series moves to Pittsburgh, the Pens are 34-15, with Detroit much better on the road at 30-19.
As mentioned, the Red Wings have misfired on offense occasionally, while Pittsburgh has shown they have a variety of options, meaning they can keep the pressure on. Though both have been exceptional, the Penguins have played with more of an edge throughout the NHL playoffs, showing more skill in precision in both ends of the rink.
Commissioner Gary Bettman’s alteration of the league is complete, with these two teams making the Stanley Cup Finals. What you will see is teams relying on speed, skill and intelligence, rather than brute force or intimidation, which is how hockey was meant to be played. Having posted a 12-2 record is series predictions, believe the Penguins have a little more of the aforementioned and win a classic series.
Pick- Pittsburgh +135 in six
Note- For Conn Smythe Winner (MVP), consider Malkin at 3-1 or Fleury at 6-1.
Friday May 23, Three Daily Winners
How good are the 3Daily Winners system plays, they have won 10 of last 11 days. The Trend plays have been burning them up as well, with four winners in the last five days. Our friends at the LCC have not been great of late, thus one of the 3DW partners, Paul Buck has his chance to shine. Good luck.
System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like San Antonio off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two teams that have won 60 to 75 percent of their games on the season. This scintillating system is 16-2, 88.8 percent the last five years.
Trend – 2) The Metropolitans of New York are 14-2 against the money line in road games when playing on Friday over the last two seasons.
FREE Selection -3) Paul Buck of 3Daily Winners is giving out the Detroit Tigers as his Free play.
System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like San Antonio off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two teams that have won 60 to 75 percent of their games on the season. This scintillating system is 16-2, 88.8 percent the last five years.
Trend – 2) The Metropolitans of New York are 14-2 against the money line in road games when playing on Friday over the last two seasons.
FREE Selection -3) Paul Buck of 3Daily Winners is giving out the Detroit Tigers as his Free play.
Hot Hitting Teams a Harmful Wager
When a major league baseball team is hitting the ball and scoring runs, they look and act lively. When this same team goes into a slump, striking out and beating the ball into the ground for routine outs, they are more boring to watch than an episode of Fox’s “Back to You”. When a team can’t hit, they are often lifeless and just pain dull. However, when a lineup is sending missiles all over the diamond, it’s entertaining stuff, BUT are they a good wager?In 2008, home runs are down; scoring is off previous years, as many teams have better bullpens, with managers smarter in how to use them. That doesn’t mean over the course of a 162-game season; nine guys in the batting order won’t rip the cover off the ball for periods of time.
In this study, hot hitting was determined as three games with 10 or more hits in a trio of outings. This could relate to a series when the lumber was en fuego or just a short period when most everybody was seeing the ball well. What we wanted to know was how a team performed in the fourth game from a wagering perspective. Were they a good wager at home or on the road when hitting the ball well? How did these teams do when in the role of favorite or underdog in the next contest, plus a few other secondary numbers, with intriguing results.
One aspect that jumped out, had nothing to do with wagering, it had to do with specific team. The Cleveland Indians have a reputation as free swinging, hard-hitting team, not only have they not make a contribution to this study, but they have not even had consecutive outings of double digit hits this year, which is astounding. Even light-hitting San Diego has managed to have a set of games where they had two or three games in a row with 10 or more hits.
Teams favored after producing three contests of double digit base-knocks, have been below average at 11-13, losing 5.3 units of profit. It stands to reason, any team is going to have a difficult time just beating the ball, since they are bound to run into a number one starter from opposing team or just run out of good fortune.
The vast majority of teams that were favored played at home. Of the 19 measured contests, 16 wore the role of favorite, with mixed results. These clubs were only 9-10 and dropped three units for those backing them. This record did come as a bit of a shock, considering these teams were at home and had the benefit of batting last.
Moving ahead to underdogs, this collective group has not performed well, with 6-14 mark, dropping 6.3 units. This result was not confounding from handicapping point of view, since when a team swinging the bats this well and is not favored, their has to be a reason. A bad pitching matchup, a team that struggles with a certain type of pitcher or opponent, or just playing on the road, are all factors in this number.
If a bettor is looking for an outstanding wager in 2008, try this one.
Play Against a road team off three games with 10 or more hits. These clubs are lamentable 8-21, -12.75 units.
What this has shown is teams can win for a short duration swinging the bats well on the road, but more often than not, pitching will be the most important element to stringing together road wins.
Interestingly enough, though the sample is small, all three teams that fit this criterion that were listed as a “pick” lost next outing.
Interestingly enough, though the sample is small, all three teams that fit this criterion that were listed as a “pick” lost next outing.
Mentioned earlier, took a peak at two other areas that have proven to be profitable for baseball bettors. One was when a team was in the midst of a series, when striking the ball with authority. In this case, say a team had one or two games within a series totaling 10 hits or more, giving them three games in a row, as has been discussed. In the next contest against the same opponent, they are a mere 8-17, -10.95 units.
The last bit of winning wagering information has to do with teams that have extended hitting streaks, say four or more. While there is no way to determine when such a streak might end, when any major league teams falls back to single digit numbers, having put four or more consecutive games of 10+ hits, they are 6-11 -6.55 units. In this scenario, when a team is facing one of the top two pitchers from opposing club, this might be the right opportunity to bet against these teams slowing down and getting beat.
Utilizing the individual team pages at StatFox, can keep you right up to speed towards building baseball bankroll on a daily basis, Playing Against clubs that have swung the bats proficiently.
Thursday May 22, Three Daily Winners
The beat goes on for System plays, producing one winner after another. The Trends plays have not been far behind, showing a highly commendable profit. Good luck.
System -1) PLAY UNDER all teams against the total, when they are a bad offensive team like Cleveland (4.5 runs a game or less), against an average starting pitcher like Mark Buehrle (ERA=4.70 to 5.70) in the AL, after scoring four runs or less six straight games. This will be just the 14th time this system has arisen in the last five years and it has been on the nose 12 times, for a 92.3 winning percent.
Trend – 2) Detroit Pistons are 12-3 ATS after allowing 90 points or less three straight games this season.
FREE Selection -3) Sal was 1-1 in MLB yesterday and asked for another opportunity. We agreed and he’s on the Astros tonight.
System -1) PLAY UNDER all teams against the total, when they are a bad offensive team like Cleveland (4.5 runs a game or less), against an average starting pitcher like Mark Buehrle (ERA=4.70 to 5.70) in the AL, after scoring four runs or less six straight games. This will be just the 14th time this system has arisen in the last five years and it has been on the nose 12 times, for a 92.3 winning percent.
Trend – 2) Detroit Pistons are 12-3 ATS after allowing 90 points or less three straight games this season.
FREE Selection -3) Sal was 1-1 in MLB yesterday and asked for another opportunity. We agreed and he’s on the Astros tonight.
Wednesday May 21, Three Daily Winners
The post-interleague May system plays were 8-4, bringing in +4.8 units, not too shabby for a couple days of FREE winning information. The Trends just keep piling up winners and have a perfect one to follow tonight. Off yesterday’s loss, Sal from the LCC has a pair of Free plays he has bet himself. Good luck.
System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Cleveland, with a money line of +125 to +175, since they are below average hitting team (.265 batting average or less) against a good starting pitcher like Javier Vazquez (4-3, 3.91). in the American League with ERA below 4.20, with their starting pitcher, Paul Byrd in this instance, who gives up one or more home runs a start (10 dingers – 8 starts). This amazing system is 37-3, 92.5 percent the last five years, including 3-0 to start 2008.
Trend - 2) Boston is 12-0 against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.
FREE Selection -3) Sal from the Left Coast Connection, has two MLB plays and opinion in NBA. His baseball plays are on the Braves and the Padres, while suggesting to take the Lakers with the points.
System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Cleveland, with a money line of +125 to +175, since they are below average hitting team (.265 batting average or less) against a good starting pitcher like Javier Vazquez (4-3, 3.91). in the American League with ERA below 4.20, with their starting pitcher, Paul Byrd in this instance, who gives up one or more home runs a start (10 dingers – 8 starts). This amazing system is 37-3, 92.5 percent the last five years, including 3-0 to start 2008.
Trend - 2) Boston is 12-0 against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.
FREE Selection -3) Sal from the Left Coast Connection, has two MLB plays and opinion in NBA. His baseball plays are on the Braves and the Padres, while suggesting to take the Lakers with the points.
San Antonio vs L.A. Lakers Betting Preview
(3) San Antonio vs (1) L.A. Lakers Lakers -220 to win series “We’ve had our battles. We’ve had some great matchups,” Lakers star Kobe Bryant said. “It feels great to be back at that level, matching up with San Antonio.” Los Angeles, to the surprise of many, was playing outstanding basketball earlier in the season, but were believed to have taken a step backward when developing center Andruw Bynum went down. The Lakers front office, never afraid to make the right deal, saw the window of opportunity was opening now and likely for the next few seasons and swung a deal for Pau Gasol, which led to them earning the top seed in the West.
Los Angeles has been the most impressive team of the four remaining conference finalists, having played just 10 games in the postseason and are 7-2-1 against the spread. Having played last Friday, the Lakers are rested, with 8-1 ATS in home games when playing only their second game in seven days this season.
San Antonio showed their championship mettle at New Orleans in crucial game seven, winning 91-82 as four-point road underdogs, in a contest they frequently led by double digits. The Spurs got Tim Duncan started early and reigned three’s on the Hornets to secure victory. Because their plane had mechanical problems and a large convention in New Orleans, the Spurs were delayed in leaving for Los Angeles and didn’t have a practice on Tuesday. “We didn’t think practice was going to glean a whole lot of improvement, considering everything,” coach Greg Popovich said.
This means the Spurs are opening on the road again, where winning has not come as easy as in the past. San Antonio is 24-23, with paltry 17-30 ATS record including 2-4 SU and ATS in the playoffs. It would be reckless journalism to not point out the two most important games the Spurs have played as visitors in the postseason (Game 3 at Phoenix, Game 7 at New Orleans) were both wins. The Spurs Big Three will of course look to carry San Antonio. Tim Duncan will try to work Gasol over, with physical play. The real key for the Spurs is Tony Parker. He should have no problem breaking down Derek Fisher off the dribble and be able to get to the basket. The Lakers have plenty of tall timber in the paint, yet Parker has made his living scoring in the lane or will be able to dish the ball to open shooters. San Antonio is +180 underdog to win the series.
What made the Lakers this season was balance. Kobe Bryant had his lowest number of shots per points scored, which earned him his first MVP. Though Bynum had a more physical post presence, Gasol has a more varied game, with jump hooks and mid-range jump shots, to take defenders away from the lane. What the Lakers need Fisher to do is make jump shots, to offset what he’ll likely surrender on defense to Parker. Lamar Odom has to mentally involved from the opening tap of Game One, he is the wild card that could give Phil Jackson’s team a decided edge with his scoring ability, along with length and power. The Lakers fantastic four is draining 52.2 percent of shots in the postseason.
On last element to watch is the bench play. For the most part each team is dependent on its three-point shooters coming off the pine. A couple of games could swing one way of the other depending on which club has hotter shooters off the bench.
These teams split four games this season, each winning and covering at home, with margin of victory a decisive 13.3 PPG. Look for the Lakers to be able to match San Antonio in critical junctures where New Orleans could not with experience.
Doug's Take – Lakers -220 in seven
Tuesday May 20, Three Daily Winners
The System play was 5-2 yesterday, bringing in +3.6 units to those who played each game. One of our pals from the Left Coast Connection had another winner and is confident he will do so again. Good luck.
System -1) PLAY AGAINST road teams after three consecutive games versus an interleague opponent, in May games. This is the completion of this system this is 39-8, 83 percent since the beginning of 2005 season. Look to play against, Seattle, Baltimore, L.A. Angels, N.Y. Mets (Game 1) and Arizona.
Trend - 2) Dustin McGowan and the Toronto Blue Jays are 12-0 UNDER when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last two seasons.
FREE Selection -3) Our baseball bettor from the Left Coast Connection is on a hot streak, going for a third straight winner at 3Daily Winners. Over the last five days he is +15.6 units and is riding the Blue Jays as his top selection.
System -1) PLAY AGAINST road teams after three consecutive games versus an interleague opponent, in May games. This is the completion of this system this is 39-8, 83 percent since the beginning of 2005 season. Look to play against, Seattle, Baltimore, L.A. Angels, N.Y. Mets (Game 1) and Arizona.
Trend - 2) Dustin McGowan and the Toronto Blue Jays are 12-0 UNDER when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last two seasons.
FREE Selection -3) Our baseball bettor from the Left Coast Connection is on a hot streak, going for a third straight winner at 3Daily Winners. Over the last five days he is +15.6 units and is riding the Blue Jays as his top selection.
Celtics versus Pistons Betting Preview
(2) Detroit vs (1) Boston Celtics -155 to win seriesEverybody raise your hand if you are surprised Detroit and Boston are in the Eastern Conference Finals. This was about as likely as the CSI crime team solving the murder before the top of the hour. Of course, that is not to say how each team got to this point didn’t have a few twists and turns, just like the CBS hit series. The Pistons lost first game of the entire playoffs at home to Philadelphia and actually had to win a game four on the road to square up series with the Sixers. Boston is chasing history, trying to become the first team ever to win only home games and no road games on the way to title, solidifying the argument for having the best record in the league.
Fans of up and down, high-flying basketball, might want to mix in a WNBA game during the East Finals, because the last thing that will happen is a high scoring confrontation when these two get together. These teams have played three games this season, with Boston winning two and the losing team never made it 86 points and these were regular season games. Both teams prefer knock-'em-down, drag-'em-out battles, which is what we will see. Oddsmakers are aware these two have played UNDER ten of last 12 encounters.
Boston is 43-6 and 30-18-1 ATS at TD Banknorth Garden, with eight postseason wins and five covers, though none in the last three victories. Taking away the opening two blowouts against Atlanta and the Celtics are unsavory 3-9 ATS in last dozen. Boston could have used the rest Detroit had in polishing off Orlando much sooner. You can’t help but wonder where the scoring is going to come from for Boston. Ray Allen looks all used up. No legs for jump shots, confidence missing in his eyes and facing another defensive-minded club. Rajon Rondo needs to be a great defensive player along with a scoring threat every game, in some manner. Yes, he has limited skill as a jump shooter, but he has to be disruptor, making steals, getting transition baskets for easy points. Two factors are imperative for Celtics to win series. Boston is 23-8 ATS in games where they attempt 77 to 83 shots this season, meaning they must play to their tempo. Secondly, they have to continue to rule at home and be aggressive. They are 12-3 ATS in home games when they attempt 23 to 28 free throws in a game this season.
Detroit will have healthy Chauncey Billups, which creates greater offensive efficiency. The Pistons, being in sixth consecutive Conference Final, must win the matchups. Billups must govern Rondo, meaning playing time for Sam Cassell, who looks ready to retire playing at this intensity level. Rip Hamilton has been a pleasure to watch with Billups out and should drive Allen crazy on both ends the floor, having him expend a great deal of energy. If the Pistons can rule the backcourt, Rasheed Wallace and Tayshaun Prince just have to play Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce even. Pierce will be stoked with confidence after performance he gave in Cavs finale. Prince’s long arms and often suffocating defense will have to affect Pierce. Otherwise, Pierce will have the chance to get Prince in foul trouble gaining a significant edge.
The other element in the series will be bench play. Doc Rivers has often looked down the bench in the playoffs, yearning for somebody, anybody to help, especially on the postseason road. Boston will need the unlikely scorer off the bench in at least two different games to win, just like P.J. Brown in game seven against Cleveland. The same goes for the Pistons, whether it is Jason Maxiell in the paint or Jarvis Hayes or Rodney Stuckey dropping jump shots, someone will have to come thru.
Detroit has enjoyed great success against teams who attempt 18 or more three point shots a game like the Celtics with 30-12 ATS record. For the Pistons, it becomes overcoming the stigma of not covering 11 of last 12 Conference Finals games and making the NBA Finals twice in five tries.
Both times Detroit won the Conference Finals; they did so without the home court advantage (2004 and 2005). Overall, the Pistons have looked like the better team and with 28 road wins in 46 games, are capable of knocking off Boston on the road.
Doug's Best Bet – Detroit +125 in six
Racing Thoughts and Betting Numbers Update
Though not always the positive individual was flabbergasted to read the horse, Big Brown is being slighted for supposedly running against mediocre competition. The horse has run two spectacular races, is primed to be the first Triple Crown champion in 30 years and the fourth in the last 60 years and some morons still aren’t happy. Of course these are the same idiots who said Tiger Woods really isn’t that good because he’s never had a true competitor to challenge him. Is it the horse’s fault nobody has run with him? Some complain about ordinary speed ratings. How’s his speed been coming around the corner and down the stretch? Secretariat is the greatest racehorse I’ve ever seen and Seattle Slew, and Affirmed were something special. I hope Big Brown joins them.Haven’t talked much about personal wagering of late, thought I’d update. In baseball, record is at 62-52, 54.4 percent on the season, good for +9.59 units. Like everybody, have had a few rough spots and a few hot streaks. As a whole satisfied with season to date record. The baseball line accuracy method I use has really helped me become far more proficient in the last few years and results like this bare it out. Still 100 percent convinced, betting sports is about finding winners, not playing favorites or underdogs. Find the right edge; improve your chances of winning.
After a crummy NBA regular season (48.5 percent), thought I was primed for NBA Playoffs. To this point, a little disappointed at 12-9-1 (57.1 percent), as so many favorites have won and covered in the second round. Still have the conference finals and league finals, thus a great deal of time to improve.
Monday May 19, Three Daily Winners
The System play lost for the first time in a week yesterday; nonetheless, the Trend and the Free selection were easy winners. Really interesting System play that comes around for just a day or two. Good luck.
System -1) PLAY AGAINST all road teams after three consecutive games versus an interleague opponent, in May games. The theory here is road teams have not quickly gotten back focus heading back to division or league play and are vulnerable. In the last four years, these teams are 6-34, 15 percent winners. Consider playing against Royals, Giants, Reds, Rangers, Rays and Cardinals, with a few more tomorrow.
Trend - 2) The New Orleans Hornets are 11-0 ATS in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season.
FREE Selection -3) Yesterday’s winner was an easy one on the Halos (10-2) and our volume baseball bettor from LCC is now up to + 12.2 units the last four days. His best play on the board tonight is the Cardinals.
System -1) PLAY AGAINST all road teams after three consecutive games versus an interleague opponent, in May games. The theory here is road teams have not quickly gotten back focus heading back to division or league play and are vulnerable. In the last four years, these teams are 6-34, 15 percent winners. Consider playing against Royals, Giants, Reds, Rangers, Rays and Cardinals, with a few more tomorrow.
Trend - 2) The New Orleans Hornets are 11-0 ATS in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season.
FREE Selection -3) Yesterday’s winner was an easy one on the Halos (10-2) and our volume baseball bettor from LCC is now up to + 12.2 units the last four days. His best play on the board tonight is the Cardinals.
Sunday May 18, Three Daily Winners
Had computer issues today which prevented me from posting 3Daily Winners. I'm sorry it didn't work, however everything is working properly again. Here is what was going to be posted earlier.
Was lucky Adam Dunn hit a walk-off three run homer for Cincinnati, to take System streak to 6-0 this week, let’s see if we can make 7 for 7 today. Good luck.
System -1) Play Against all underdogs like Toronto when the money line is +100 or higher, that have been weak offensive teams (4.2 runs or less runs a game) against a team with a very good bullpen like Philadelphia’s (ERA of 3.33 or less), with a starting pitcher like Shaun Marcum who gives up 5.5 or less hits a start. Marcum has been awesome with 4-2 record and 2.22 ERA, but with his team’s inability to score, the Jays are vulnerable. This system is 32-6, 84.2 percent the last five seasons, including 2-0 in 2008.
Trend - 2) The Arizona Diamondbacks are 21-4 against the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite over the last two seasons.
FREE Selection -3) Move to a new member of the Left Coast Connection, who plays a large volume of MLB games daily and is + 8.6 units the last three days. His favorite play on the board is to take the Angels to win the I-5 series.
Was lucky Adam Dunn hit a walk-off three run homer for Cincinnati, to take System streak to 6-0 this week, let’s see if we can make 7 for 7 today. Good luck.
System -1) Play Against all underdogs like Toronto when the money line is +100 or higher, that have been weak offensive teams (4.2 runs or less runs a game) against a team with a very good bullpen like Philadelphia’s (ERA of 3.33 or less), with a starting pitcher like Shaun Marcum who gives up 5.5 or less hits a start. Marcum has been awesome with 4-2 record and 2.22 ERA, but with his team’s inability to score, the Jays are vulnerable. This system is 32-6, 84.2 percent the last five seasons, including 2-0 in 2008.
Trend - 2) The Arizona Diamondbacks are 21-4 against the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite over the last two seasons.
FREE Selection -3) Move to a new member of the Left Coast Connection, who plays a large volume of MLB games daily and is + 8.6 units the last three days. His favorite play on the board is to take the Angels to win the I-5 series.
Saturday May 17, Three Daily Winners
It has been a solid week thus far, the System plays are 5-0, the Trend plays have won the last four days and the Free plays are 5-4. Good luck today.
System -1) Play Against teams like Cleveland that are having trouble scoring runs (4.5 or less runs a game), against a good NL starting pitcher like Aaron Harang (ERA of less than 3.70), when, in this case, the Indians are batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games. This system is a powerful 35-5 the last 11 seasons.
Trend - 2) The Detroit Red Wings are 27-4 ATS at Joe Louis Arena after covering three of their last four against the spread over the last two seasons.
FREE Selection -3) After a nice 2-1 day, our LCC free play in on the Atlanta Braves with Tim Hudson listed pitcher.
System -1) Play Against teams like Cleveland that are having trouble scoring runs (4.5 or less runs a game), against a good NL starting pitcher like Aaron Harang (ERA of less than 3.70), when, in this case, the Indians are batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games. This system is a powerful 35-5 the last 11 seasons.
Trend - 2) The Detroit Red Wings are 27-4 ATS at Joe Louis Arena after covering three of their last four against the spread over the last two seasons.
FREE Selection -3) After a nice 2-1 day, our LCC free play in on the Atlanta Braves with Tim Hudson listed pitcher.
Lakers Can't Win Game 6
A great deal has been made and rightfully so about how dominate home teams have been in the conference semifinal round of the NBA Playoffs, with record now at 20-1 and 14-5-2 against the spread. This home team dominance could end at any time and likely will, since nothing historically suggests it will continue. Yet what factors have led to such an occurrence. Understanding this provides the answer in Utah tonight.The single biggest explanation and one that is rather simplistic is the shots that fall at home, are not being made on the road. Why is this? Start with the mindset of each player in home/road dichotomy. At home, the team and thus the player is more comfortable in familiar surroundings, the crowd cheering invigorates player on both sides of the floor. He’s play with more passion, more energy and more importantly, is more relaxed. He gives the extra effort on defense fighting through screens, takes the ball to the basket with more abandon to dunk or be fouled.
A legitimate question would be how is this different than the regular season? The answer is as simple as looking at the date on the calendar, it’s the playoffs. The stakes are higher, reputations of today’s players are on the line and the pressure is immense.
This leads to the deeper aspect of why road teams can’t win, mental toughness. This entire generation of players grew up being coddled since they were in grade school. They were always told how great they were and most negative elements were removed from their lives, setting them up for success. What was left out was how to deal with adversity, real adversity like ordinary people face everyday. Why coaches preach defense is no matter how good a player is offensively, some nights the shots just won’t fall. But defense, well this is getting into stance each time down the floor fighting to not let your man score.
Playing close attention, watch how many times, a visiting player have missed two or three shots in a row and it is his man that scores the basket. The difference is not only on the offensive side, it’s on the defensive end as well, lending to twofold problem. This in turn leads to explanation of why so many of these games have been double digit wins for the home team. Just like many of the Super Bowls in the 1980’s and 90’s, that were blowouts. When two highly trained and talented teams are running at peak efficiency, once one lets down, the other will race right by its opponent, leading to lop-sided scores. This is precisely what has happened in this round of the playoffs. The home team is completely dialed in, the visitor; being defended more arduously, becomes frustrated when shot attempts fail, carries that baggage to the other side of the floor and gives up a basket or stupid foul still thinking about missing previous shot.
This four point swing doesn’t have to happen very often in the course of a game either to make any contest a blowout. A mere five trips in the home teams favor, makes an 18-20 win, especially in the fourth quarter.
While teams like San Antonio cause outrage with dirty tactics and call for full understanding of the rules, no denying they play to win. Why have we seen a drop in teams from this country in international play, despite having the best players in the world? Why do we continue to lose to less gifted teams? Today’s players are mentally softer and don’t adjust well to challenges that regular people face in everyday life.
Today, as you look at Utah being bet up from a two-point home favorite to four at most wagering outlets, it’s comfortable to know that the Jazz are 11-2 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less this season or the Lakers are 15-26 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games. But what is really important to understand is back at EnergySolutions Arena, Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer will do everything possible to send this to a Game 7.
That is not to say the Lakers can’t win, however if they did it would be the first time either team showed it had what it took to step up and show stout-heartedness and grit.
Friday May 16, Three Daily Winners
Nearly a sweep yesterday, as the Giants bullpen fell apart to cause one loss. The Systems plays are cleaning up, 4-0 this week.
System -1) Play UNDER on home teams like Cleveland where the first half total is between 85.5 and 90.5 points (presently 90) after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This system is 27-6, 81.8 percent the last 12 years, including 11-1 the last five seasons.
Trend - 2) The Chicago White Sox are 18-2 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher like the Giants Jonathan Sanchez, whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 since interleague play began.
FREE Selection -3) A new member from the LCC, has three plays in interleague baseball he likes equally as well and will share them. Tonight he’s playing Baltimore, Seattle and Arizona. He is on 10-4 run in baseball bets this week.
System -1) Play UNDER on home teams like Cleveland where the first half total is between 85.5 and 90.5 points (presently 90) after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This system is 27-6, 81.8 percent the last 12 years, including 11-1 the last five seasons.
Trend - 2) The Chicago White Sox are 18-2 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher like the Giants Jonathan Sanchez, whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 since interleague play began.
FREE Selection -3) A new member from the LCC, has three plays in interleague baseball he likes equally as well and will share them. Tonight he’s playing Baltimore, Seattle and Arizona. He is on 10-4 run in baseball bets this week.
Thursday May 15, Three Daily Winners
The System won for a third straight day and the Free Selections were 2-0, with added bonus picked missed. Let’s move to today.
System -1) Play Against all underdogs like the Yankees with a money line of +100 or higher, with a mediocre AL offensive scoring 4.2 runs or less a game, against a team with a very good bullpen like Tampa Bay (3.13 ERA), with a starting pitcher like Scott Kazmir, who gives up 5.5 or less hits a start. This system has hit 22 of 26, 84.6 percent since 2004.
Trend - 2) With the Braves 24th in stolen bases, Cole Hamels is 17-3 vs. poor base-running teams, averaging a stolen base or less every other game over the last two seasons. (Phillies Record)
FREE Selection -3) Our betting expert from the Left Coast Connection, gave us two MLB winners and will stick with him today, as he plays the Giants in afternoon action.
System -1) Play Against all underdogs like the Yankees with a money line of +100 or higher, with a mediocre AL offensive scoring 4.2 runs or less a game, against a team with a very good bullpen like Tampa Bay (3.13 ERA), with a starting pitcher like Scott Kazmir, who gives up 5.5 or less hits a start. This system has hit 22 of 26, 84.6 percent since 2004.
Trend - 2) With the Braves 24th in stolen bases, Cole Hamels is 17-3 vs. poor base-running teams, averaging a stolen base or less every other game over the last two seasons. (Phillies Record)
FREE Selection -3) Our betting expert from the Left Coast Connection, gave us two MLB winners and will stick with him today, as he plays the Giants in afternoon action.
Wednesday May 14, Three Daily Winners
The System and the Trend were both winners yesterday, let's move ahead.
System -1) When the Total is 10 or higher, with an average hitting team like Colorado (AVG = .255 to .269), facing an average starting pitcher like Micha Owings (ERA=4.20 to 5.20-NL) in May, Play the UNDER. This impeccable system is 18-2 the last five seasons, including a pair of winners in 2008.
Trend - 2) Atlanta is 2-12 against the money line in road games after one or more consecutive Unders this season.
FREE Selection -3) As will be the custom, once a person losses they are out and we’ll pick up the next hottest bettor, from this syndicate. Today sharp bettor has had four winning days in a row and has two big plays, the Blue Jays and the Astros. In addition, he’s calling for Red Wings to close out Dallas in NHL action.
System -1) When the Total is 10 or higher, with an average hitting team like Colorado (AVG = .255 to .269), facing an average starting pitcher like Micha Owings (ERA=4.20 to 5.20-NL) in May, Play the UNDER. This impeccable system is 18-2 the last five seasons, including a pair of winners in 2008.
Trend - 2) Atlanta is 2-12 against the money line in road games after one or more consecutive Unders this season.
FREE Selection -3) As will be the custom, once a person losses they are out and we’ll pick up the next hottest bettor, from this syndicate. Today sharp bettor has had four winning days in a row and has two big plays, the Blue Jays and the Astros. In addition, he’s calling for Red Wings to close out Dallas in NHL action.
Boston Celtics Will Not Win NBA Title
I admit it; I picked the Boston Celtics to win the NBA Championship before the playoffs began. Consider me one of those Democrats whose like a super-delegate, I have the right to throw my support towards whoever I want. I was fooled by the regular season record, believing Boston ACTUALLY had a bench. I was naive enough to think Doc Rivers was a better than average coach and didn't follow one of the fundamentals of professional basketball; the NBA Playoffs are completely different than the regular season.As bad as all those elements are, I was bamboozled into believing the Celtics "Big Three" had suddenly become clutch players. Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce are all great individual talents; they just have never won anything that matters. LeBron James has been to more NBA Finals then the three of them combined (1). I refuse to listen to the garbage talk they played on bad teams; since in King James almost four seasons, he has not had many players on the Cavs roster that will be familiar to anyone who wasn't a Cleveland fan come 2014.
For all their talent, the word "clutch" is never associated with their names in late game behavior. In the unexpected seven game series against Atlanta, the less than terrific trio outscored the Hawks best three players, Josh Smith, Joe Johnson and Al Horford (that's right Mike Bibby is fourth at best) 388-337. That means this collection of veteran talent outscored the Atlanta upstarts by a grand total about 7.3 points per game. Hardly dominating for a 1 vs 8 matchup.
Fast forward to Cleveland series now tied as 2-2, after the Cavs clutch fourth quarter win in Game 4. This was going to be the series "Three vs One" remember? If you've been watching, King James has had his crown stolen by Boston defense. The James’ all of us have been familiar with has been stifled. But pay close attention, the combination of James, Wally "World" Szczerbiak and Zydrunas Ilguaskas has outscored the well-known Boston trio in each of the first four games, that's right, every one.
Game 1 47-32
Game 2 53-48
Game 3 49-41
Game 4 44-43
How absolutely ridiculous is that!
After accumulating a 31-10 and 28-13 ATS road record, Boston has lost five road games in a row, by an average of just over 10 points per game. That’s championship caliber?
At some juncture, some team will win at the new Garden and Doc Rivers will have to call upon this trembling collection of faint-hearted "stars" to win a clutch road game? It just might be in Game 5 Wednesday, when the Celtics don’t play well at home. In three previous series, when it was tied at 2-2, the aforementioned King James has averaged over 41 points per game, all Cleveland wins, with two on the road. Maybe it was Bugs Bunny who knew it best when he asked, "What's up Doc?"
Celtics NBA champs at 8-5 odds? I’d rather wager on the Dolphins Jason Taylor to win Dancing with the Stars.
Tuesday May 13, Three Daily Winners
The System and the Free Pick were both winners yesterday, let's move ahead.
System -1) Play On all teams like Cleveland when the money line is +125 to -125, can’t hit a lick, batting .225 or worse over their last 15 games, playing on Tuesday. Why Tuesday is important, is because this is frequently the beginning of a new series, giving a team a fresh start. This system is 20-2, 90.9 percent the last three seasons, gathering +18.6 units of profit.
Trend - 2) The New Orleans Hornets are 10-2-1 ATS after allowing 100 or more points in previous contest.
FREE Selection -3) Sticking with the hottest bettor in the Left Coast Connection, who has picked up +10.4 units the last eight days, and he’s taking the Chicago Cubs tonight.
System -1) Play On all teams like Cleveland when the money line is +125 to -125, can’t hit a lick, batting .225 or worse over their last 15 games, playing on Tuesday. Why Tuesday is important, is because this is frequently the beginning of a new series, giving a team a fresh start. This system is 20-2, 90.9 percent the last three seasons, gathering +18.6 units of profit.
Trend - 2) The New Orleans Hornets are 10-2-1 ATS after allowing 100 or more points in previous contest.
FREE Selection -3) Sticking with the hottest bettor in the Left Coast Connection, who has picked up +10.4 units the last eight days, and he’s taking the Chicago Cubs tonight.
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