Free Baseball Plays at 3Daily Winners

A steady as it goes 2-1 Friday. Today we have what might be the best System play we have found all year, at least record wise, amazing. Kendall of the LCC was on the money with the Angels last night, what is his Top Play tonight? Our Top Trend focuses on Minnesota, in a very interesting situation. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like Atlanta with a money line of +175 to +250, batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a hot starting pitcher like Cole Hamels of the Phillies with a WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. This truly astonishing system is 29-1, that’s correct, 29-1 the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Minnesota is 12-1 after scoring four runs or less five straight games.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Kendall of the Left Coast Connection is in 8-3 run +5.95 units in baseball and is going right back to backing the Los Angeles Angels again tonight.

2008 Washington Redskins Preview

With the first exhibition game just over a week away, NFL talk is coming fast and furious. Washington and Indianapolis will play in the Hall-of-Fame game on Sunday, August 3. This week we’ll take a look at the Redskins chances for the upcoming season and see what the best bet for season total wins is.

Joe Gibbs was never able to re-create his success in return visit to Washington, other than a couple of playoff appearances. Gibbs had given it his all, but the demands were more than he wanted to continue to deal with and new head coach Jim Zorn was hired to build on last year’s 9-7 campaign. Gibbs never quite found the magic, having hired assistant coaches that he was more comfortable with (his age) who never really effectively attacked opponent’s weakness. Gibbs spiritualism did help guide the team thru last year’s senseless death of Sean Taylor and as a human being, Gibbs should be commended for that alone.

One of the first orders of business is to restructure the offense. Quarterback Jason Campbell is still a work in progress and Zorn believes he can teach him to be more effective. The offense only ranked 20th in points scored (20.9) and 20th in total offense at 333.3 yards per game. Adding weapons thru the draft should make the offense more productive, especially in the second half of the season when a higher degree of comfort is met. Campbell will have the chance to be more effective in traditional West Coast offense, featuring slants and passes into the flat.

What could be more challenging for the new coach is maintain excellence on the defense. In 2007, the Redskins were 8th in total defense and 11th in points allowed. That was on the heels of being 30th in yards allowed in 2006, after being 8th in same category in 2005. DC Gregg Williams super aggressive schemes have been replaced by new DC Greg Blache, who was not deemed good enough to hold the job after 2004 season and had been managing the defense line in our nation’s capital since. Washington has age on the left side of defense, which could hold them back from moving forward in Zorn’s maiden adventure as the skipper.

It was nearly impossible to comprehend, but owner Dan Snyder’s wallet actually had dust coming out of this off-season. For the first time since buying the Redskins, Danny Boy made no splashy signings (unless you’re related to former Texans WR Jerome Mathis). In spite of only three playoff appearances since taking ownership, Snyder trusted his staff and new coach Jim Zorn. Under Joe Gibbs second tour of duty in Washington, he made a point to have munchkin receivers. This placed added pressure on QB Jason Campbell to make the perfect throws down the field. This time, the Skins chose the right path and landed 6’2 Devin Thomas and 6’4 Malcolm Thomas. In a weak group of wide receivers, this tandem were rated two of the best three. Trojans TE Fred Davis has good skills and could free up Chris Cooley in down the field routes. Executive vice president Vinny Cerrato was not afraid to play to Zorn’s strengths on the offensive side, nonetheless, has harbored criticism for not better addressing age in the defensive line and strong side LB spots. After losing DE Philip Daniels with tear to left knee ligament the first day of training camp, Cerrato picked up the phone and made trade for Jason Taylor to shore up weak area.

2008 Outlook – It’s the dawning of a new era in Washington, with Jim Zorn taking the reins. While improvement seems to be the theme for the Redskins, they received no help from NFL schedule maker. They are the sacrificial lamb in season opener at the Meadowlands for the Super Bowl champs. Also, back-to-back road division games pop-up in Weeks 4 and 5 against Dallas and Philadelphia respectively. From that point Washington needs to play well, since the season concludes with four of last six away from FedEx Field.

The Redskins are presumed to be better in certain areas, nonetheless, putting in new offensive and defensive schemes takes time for adjustment, for the players and coaches. Unless Zorn is the second coming of Bill Walsh, it will take Redskins players time to figure where they need to be on both sides of the ball. In the first part of the year, this means more thinking than reacting, which in this league is the difference between a first down or a tackle for loss. Zorn also will make first year coaching mistakes, further complicating more positive results. Possible tough sledding in Zorn’s first year and we’ll support the Under 7.5 total.

Free Baseball Plays at 3Daily Winners

Top Trend was easy winner backing Roy Halladay and moves on to the big Yankees/Red Sox rivalry, starting this evening. Kendall’s back from the Left Coast Connection and is backing one of the Los Angeles teams as his Top Play and has opinion on CFL selection. Our System play is in the American League and is 80.5 percent the last five seasons. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON home favorites with money line of -110 or higher like Cleveland, with a mediocre bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 like Livan Hernandez on the season (AL). This system has racked up the winners with 41-10 mark the last five years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Boston Red Sox are 20-3 playing into double revenge.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Kendall’s heating up again in baseball and is using the L.A. Angels as his best bet today. He also mentioned to take a strong look at Hamilton with the points in the CFL.

Free Baseball Selections for July 24

Nice rebound yesterday with 3-1 record. Very seldom do you ever see two poor days in a row at 3Daily Winners, since we seek quality information on these Free plays just like the articles that are written. Top notch System play going, which is hitting over 80 percent since 2004. Today’s Top Trend has a pitcher dominating an opponent. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against all underdogs like Kansas City, with a money line of +100 or higher, after five straight games where they stranded seven or less runners on base, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 8.00 the last five games. Why this system works is teams like the Royals are not hitting and their pitching is getting battered. This system is 62-15, 80.5 percent, including perfect 2-0 this year.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Toronto with Ray Halladay starting is 17-3 against Baltimore since 2001.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Most members of the Left Coast Connection including myself are passing today.

Free Baseball Plays from 3Daily Winners

Bad day all the way around yesterday, as everything took a beating. Started today right with System Play a winner and Yankees play was accurate. I'll add one more play for tonight, you can read below. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON all favorites with a money line of -150 or more like Tampa Bay, who are below average hitting team (BA .265 or less), against a good starting pitcher like the A’s Greg Smith (5-8, 3.79), who has an ERA of 4.20 or less in the AL, in the second half of the season. This system is 68-16, 81 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Colorado is 13-0 Over after scoring 9 or more runs in back to back games.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Haven’t received all information yet, thus will give out play I like thus far on the Yankees. UPDATE- Seeing I hit the Yankees, I'll go with other New York team tonight.

Free Baseball Picks at 3Daily Winners

Another 2-1 winning day at 3DW, and our friends at StatFox sent over a top notch System play that has two teams in the mix. The Top Trend of the day seeks two in a row, looking in on Tampa Bay. Our pal Sal from the LCC, has put together great runs here with his Free Plays and has one going today. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs against a +1.5 run line, (Money Line in -190 to +165 range) with a team on-base percentage .320 or worse on the season (AL), in the second half of the season. This run line system is 21-5, 80.7 percent this season and shows Cleveland and Oakland as play against teams.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Tampa Bay is 17-1 as -150 to -200 home favorite this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal from the Left Coast Connection is heating up again, pounding out 8-2 record the last three days and is backing Jake Peavy and San Diego.

Understanding Baseball’s Magic Number 4

The major league baseball All-Star break was a welcome relief for many, a time to take a few days off to stretch the mind, offer a few more simple pleasures and generally take it easy. For others, the void is an unwelcome interruption from the daily grind of churning out numbers. Having studying numbers with regularity at least since April, if not dating back to November when the NBA season started, this chasm is a break that throws off the kismet of where a sports bettor expects to end up.

For those of us that fit the latter group, a healthy exercise is to reflect where we have been and where we are going. This season to date in major league baseball, 4.5 has been the number, this is what all teams have averaged either scoring or allowing in 2008. Since half-numbers of course are impossible to determine outcomes, decided to choose what is the most talked about number in the media these days –four- like the one Brett Favre has worn.

For starters, let’s review the division leaders or those who are very close. The Los Angeles Angels have held opponents 65 times to four runs or less among its 98 games (66.3 percent) and not surprisingly are tied for the best record in baseball. Boston and Tampa Bay are in a dogfight in the AL East and the Red Sox have held opponent to four or fewer runs 57 times and the first place Rays on 58 different occasions. Division leaders out of Chicago, the White Sox and the Cubs, have held opponents to four runs or less 55 and 57 times respectively.

The importance of this figure is shown by the results of another division leader, Arizona. When the D-Backs started 20-8, 19 times (67.8 percent) they held the opposing team to four or fewer runs. Since then, that percent has fallen to 47.1, as only 33 times in the next 70 contests have the Snakes held opponents below this number, in part, accounting for 28-42. With Arizona’s lack of hitting receiving so much attention in slide, aside from All-Stars Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, the rest of the pitching staff has been mediocre at best.

How important is this stat as it relates to teams having winning streaks? Consider the New York Mets as the most recent example. The Mets had won 10 in a row, to catapult back into the NL East race. During that hot streak they were12-2 in those 14encounters, surrendering more than four runs just three times. Compare this success with what it’s taken in blocks of games in which they held opponents to this few of runs. Prior to this successful point in time, it took 24 games to hold foes 12 times below five runs (10-14 record). Before then, 22 games (11-11) and starting April 19, it took 24 trips to the ballpark (11-13) to reach the figure of 12 again, proving how important good pitching is.

The St. Louis Cardinals are a surprise team, hanging around the lead in the NL Central, despite incredible injuries to many pitchers. Manager Tony LaRussa and pitching coach Dave Duncan have pieced together pitching staff, and when the Cards to teams to 0-to-4 runs, they are 47-17 in 2008.

Minnesota’s 24-9 run to creep ever closer to Chicago, has been fueled by great pitching, as clubs in other uniforms have scored four or less runs 23 times.

Because of the differences of ballparks, teams style of play, this is theory is not absolute and has a flip side relating to scoring runs. The San Diego Padres play in the most extreme pitcher’s park in baseball and have matched the Chicago White Sox for allowing opponents to score four or less runs 55 times. The Padres problems revolve around offense, since an enormous 67 times (67.6 percent for those keeping track at home), they have failed to score five or more runs in a game.

Weak hitting teams like Washington and Seattle do not score enough runs with or without decent pitching. The Nationals have failed to break the barrier beyond four runs 61 times and the Mariners an even worse 66 times.

Detroit’s pitching has been suspect all season, thus they are more dependent on scoring runs. In the Tigers first 60 games, they failed to touch home plate five times 27 different ways, this led to 24-36 record. In last 38 contests, they have scored a minimum of five runs 24 times and are 25-13 to square up record at .500.

Do you think Florida counts on hitting? The Marlins are 52-46 and have been outscored by 25 runs in 2008, thanks to allowing the third most runs in the National League. When Florida scores five runs or more, they are 48-14. When the Fish swim into four or fewer runs, they are miserable 14-32.

For those handicapping these figures, you have to understand what you are working with. It a team doesn’t score runs, and is facing starting pitcher with quality earned run average and is backed up with good bullpen, they are not going to have much success. In this situation, to seek value, you would need this team probably to be at home, scoring runs at above average rate of five or more contests and having their number one or two starter throwing. If these elements come together, a solid play on home underdog is worth contemplating.

The other aspect is to match the team’s recent play with how they are scoring and allowing runs compared to the oddsmakers total. If two clubs have been scoring five or more runs, for six or more games on average and the total is 8.5 for example, the oddsmaker is telling us two good starting hurlers are facing one another. In this case, it is a matter of understanding bullpens and which team is better equipped to play lower scoring game, knowing this should lead you down the path of profitability in the second half of the season.

Free Baseball Picks at 3Daily Winners

The White Sox bullpen caused 3Daily Winners to “settle” for 3-1 day on Sunday. The System play today is remarkable; having won 38 of 41 times it has come up. Today’s Top Trend takes us right back to Coffee Town, where Starbucks $8 coffees are no longer the rage on a budget. Since we started giving out Free Plays on this blog, our record is 78-32, 70.9 percent. Paul Buck was correct on both plays on Sunday and has the Winner on NL East showdown. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON all favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 like Tampa Bay, who are below average hitting team ( BA .265 or less), against a good starting pitcher like Dana Eveland (7-6, 3.49 ERA) who has an ERA of 4.20 or less in the AL, in the second half of the season. Logic dictates there is a reason why the Rays should be such a large favorite, despite shortcomings in two mentioned situations. This system is incredible at 38-3, 92.7 percent the last 11 seasons.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Seattle is 3-16 after playing consecutive games Over.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck has been making serious cash, hitting 15 of last 21 wagers, including both Winners here yesterday. He’s on Florida today to keep streak going.

Free Baseball Picks at 3Daily Winners

Rare 1-2 day at 3Daily Winners and we’ll look to climb right back in the saddle today. Yesterday’s winner was a System selection and we have another stupendous one is available hitting 86.2 percent. We uncovered a 100 percent Top Trend and these have near perfect all baseball season. Paul Buck is bucking the system and has 2 outstanding Free Plays. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more like Kansas City, who are poor power team averaging less than a home run per game, against a starting pitcher like John Danks who gives up 0.5 or less long balls a start, after five straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base. This awesome system is 50-8, 86.2 percent the last 11 years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Seattle has yet to win in nine tries after allowing more than 9 runs in last contest in 2008.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck has been on a nice ride, hitting 12 of last 16 wagers and is on Detroit in MLB and gives out Toronto minus the points in Canadien football as his best play in that sport thus far this season.

Free Baseball Picks at 3Daily Winners

Our System plays are heating up again, and now are 35-20, 63.6 percent. Today 3Daily Winners has uncovered an 80 percent System play, which has won by large margins. Yesterday’s Top Trend was a winning play, giving us 2-1 day and follows the exploits of Washington in Atlanta. A founding member of the LCC has his Top Play available for Free. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher, like it is on San Diego, after five straight games where they stranded seven or less runners on base, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 8.00 the last five games. This truly unique system is 60-15 the last five seasons; with winning margin being 2.4 runs a game.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Washington has lost 13 of last 15 games playing on Saturday.

Free Baseball Selection -3) One of the founders of the Left Coast Connection has been knocking down winners in MLB action with 10-2 mark, picking +8.65 units. Tonight he has the Chicago White Sox as strong selection.

Baseball Betting American League 2nd Half Outlook

With the second half of the season about to commence, here is an in-depth look at many of the different perspectives of the contenders to win divisions or American League pennant. We’ll look into scheduling aspects, key stats that the contenders must maintain or improve upon in the last 60+ games remaining in the season. Additionally, we’ll look into these teams’ odds to win division or be AL representative in the World Series.

The Los Angeles Angels have the best record in the American League at 57-38 (+12.5 units). Their style of play in more National League-like, thanks to manager Mike Scioscia preferring to steal bases, having runners on the move and being aggressive. Despite superior record, they rank just third at most sportsbooks to be AL squad to be in Fall Classic at 3-1 odds. L.A. is only +21 in score differential, thanks to faulty offense. The Halos are 11th in runs scored in the AL, 12th in on-base percentage and impatient at the plate, ranking next to last in walks. The L.A. pitching staff is awesome, however the bullpen ranks only 11th in ERA in the AL. The Angles open the second half with Boston and Cleveland at the “Big A” in Anaheim. After that they head east to face Baltimore, the Red Sox and New York. In scheduling oddity, they have more games left with the Yankees (7), than with division rival Oakland (6).

Oakland continues to hang around in the AL West thanks to tremendous pitching from mostly talented youngsters. The A’s allow the fewest runs; have the lowest OBP surrendered and fourth best bullpen ERA. On offense, Oakland scuffles. The A’s are 11th in OBP and have the 2nd most strikeouts, making scoring runs an uphill battle. After the break, the Athletics road schedule is brutal, with series at New York, at Tampa Bay, at Boston, at Toronto, at Detroit and at Minnesota. Starting August 1, 20 of next 26 contests will be in traveling grays. Oakland is 4-1 to win division and real long shot at 30-1 to make Series.

Texas has baseball’s best offense-to-pitching dichotomy. The Rangers are first in runs scored, 2nd in OBP and 2nd in walks. These free swingers whiff more than any team in the junior circuit. Pitching numbers has Texas last in runs allowed, OBP, walks and next to last in strikeouts and bullpen ERA. In spite of playing pretty good baseball to have 50-46 record, hard to consider them even serious wild card contenders. The Rangers fate could be decided quickly with nine-game roadie at Twins, at White Sox and at Oakland.

The Chicago White Sox lead the AL Central by 1.5 games and are second in the league in run differential at +83. The White Sox offense has gone through a few droughts, yet have bounced back to be third in runs scored. Manager Ozzie Guillen has produced a few tirades; however they have had nothing to do with the pitching. Sox pitchers do a fantastic job in limiting big innings; ranking 2nd in fewest walks and stay out of jams, being 3rd in strikeouts. Closer Bobby Jenks will start the second part of the season on the DL, with the Pale Hose having enough to cover up with the finest bullpen ERA in AL. If Chicago can but together 6-4 road trip starting July 25, they return to U.S. Cellular Field to take on Detroit, Boston and Kansas City, where they are sensational 32-13. Sox are 1-2 to take AL Central and 6-1 to make World Series.

Have to give manager Ron Gardenhire credit again, as most preseason magazines had Minnesota 4th or 5th in the division. Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer are legit stars and Michael Cuddyer has turned himself into a good player from a part-timer. With offensive deficiencies in the lower part of the line-up, scoring a lot of runs will continue to be an issue, but as long as the pitchers continue to give up the fewest walks, Minnesota is still a threat. The Twinkies open second half at the MetroDome and will play 19 of 31 there thru August 20. After this they leave for 15-day, 14-game road trip that sends them out West and to Canada. When the Twins arrive back home, everyone will know if 2-1 odds to division were true.

Detroit really missed a golden opportunity to close the gap in division; losing three of four to Minnesota at home in last series. If they had reversed those numbers, the Tigers would be only five back of Chicago and 1.5 behind the Twins. Holding a 19-27 road record, Jim Leyland’s club will prove if they deserve being mentioned for postseason or just underachievers. Detroit will start with 17 of 20 on the road, which includes six conflicts with the White Sox. To have any hope, they will need to be within four games of Sox to have any potential real chance it appears. The Tigers are 4-1 to win division title and with pitching staff that is 12th in OBP and walks, the Tigers will need gigantic leap by all members of the staff to make run.

When analyzing numbers, no wonder Boston is 13-10 odds to return to World Series to defend crown. Second in runs, first in free passes and OBP, the Red Sox do all the little things right. They will definitely have to clean up 21-29 road record and possibly having David Ortiz back will help. The starting pitching is secure, with more consistency needed out of the bullpen to put together winning streaks of six or seven games. The schedule is fairly balanced and the Red Sox will enjoy a couple more days off than competitors, having played the most games in baseball to this point. Hard not to like Boston chances, if for no other reason than 36-11 record at Fenway Park.

Everyone was waiting for Tampa Bay slump and it came right before All-Star break. The Rays will seek to quickly regroup at Tropicana Field, where they are 36-14. Great pitching has kept Tampa Bay on everyone’s mind, being second in OBP allowed, 3rd best bullpen and 4th in runs allowed. The offense runs hot and cold, which is exhibited by being 3rd in walks and 3rd in striking out. Manager Joe Maddon will have to massage the egos of his young team, since after six home games starting Friday, 20 of next 29 are on the road. The Rays will have mettle tested in September also, playing AL East clubs, plus six with Twins and trio with Tigers. Tampa is 1-1 to steal the East and 5-2 to be Series rep from the AL.

The Yankees still believe they have enough to at least be wild card team. Injured players are returning, giving the New York faithful hope. Statistically, the numbers are not present to suggest such a run, being rather pedestrian in most categories. Joe Girardi’s squad will have opportunity to get on a roll with 13 of 16 at Yankee Stadium beginning Friday. The Bronx Bombers will need to likely be very close come Labor Day, with only 10 home games at Yankee Stadium in September. New York is just 7-1 to win division yet interestingly enough, have same 6-1 odds as White Sox to play in World Series.

Though a real long shot, have to at least mention Toronto, with its exceptional pitching, ranking 2nd in runs allowed. If the Blue Jays could at least be a top five offense team in the second part of the year, they would have to be a factor and sneak up to be in the hunt for wild card.

Free Baseball Picks at 3Daily Winners

A perfect 2-0 as the Left Coast Connection connected on third straight Free Winner and the system was also correct on Thursday. Another extraordinary System play is ready, presently hitting at 85 percent. Today’s top Trend returns in the State with 10,000 lakes and the LCC consensus play goes for four in a row in the great state of Texas. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like San Diego, with a money line of +100 or higher, who are dreadful offensive team scoring 4.1 RPG or less, against an average starting pitcher like Brandon Looper (ERA=4.20 to 5.20)-NL, with a starting pitcher like Greg Maddux whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season-NL. This sweet system bakes, at 34-6, 85 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Minnesota is 13-1 in last 14 outings at the MetroDome.

Free Baseball Selection -3) The LCC has nailed down three FREE winners in a row and has seven members are on the Cubs, with nobody supporting Houston.

Free Baseball Picks Return

Hope you enjoyed a brief reprieve. Last Sunday we hit both posted plays. Today, one System play is available with small schedule and it has hit 90.4 percent since 2004. The LCC has another Free MLB play after hitting last two. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST home underdogs, like the Reds with a money line of +125 to +175, who are average offensive team (4.3 to 4.8 runs a game) against a good starting pitcher like Johan Santana (8-7, 2.84) with ERA of 3.70 or less, after a loss by 2 runs or less. This system is flabbergasting 19-2 the last five years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) No superior trends today.

Free Baseball Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection has hit last two plays and has another consensus selection with backers 9 for 9 on the Cardinals.

Baseball Betting National League 2nd Half Outlook

The National League is glad not to have anything to do with the American League until October, when the stakes will be higher. As second half of the year starts today, we’ll examine key stats, scheduling situations of all the teams in contention in the National League. With most teams having about 68 games to play, give or take a few, we’ll see how oddsmakers feel about these teams chances to win division titles and head to World Series.

These are heady times in Chicago this summer, for the first time in 31 years, both major league baseball teams are in first place as the last part of the schedule starts after the break. The Chicago Cubs have been the best team in the senior circuit for the vast majority of the season. They have been consistently one of the best bets in baseball at +12.2 units, and an incredible +19 at Wrigley Field with 37-12 mark. Chicago lead the NL in runs scored, on-base percentage and walks and are 3rd in runs allowed, accounting for largest run differential in the sport at +106. With Alfonso Soriano coming back and Rich Harden solidify starters; the only real pieces left are the return to form of Carlos Marmol and Kerry Wood being a touch more consistent out of the back end of pen. The Cubs will attempt to open a gap between them and Brewers and Cardinals in August, with 21 home games. If this fails, could be dicey September with only nine contests at Friendly Confines. Cubs are 1-3 to win division and odds on choice at 3-2 to make World Series at many Vegas sportsbooks. (Cubs fans and backers, drink lots of fluids)

Milwaukee will give it go, being able to have three excellent and two pretty serviceable starting pitchers over every five-game period. In order to catch the Cubs or be the wide card team, the 7th ranked scoring offense has to climb into the top five, as 11th ranked bullpen does not figure to get much better unless starters can regularly go 7+ innings. Brewers are 5-2 to comeback and win NL Central and 5-1 to return to Series for the first time since Hall-of-Famers Robin Yount and Paul Molitor were patrolling old County Stadium. Milwaukee’s schedule is balanced and includes 10 games with division leading Chicago. The only downside of remaining games is only a dozen versus the NL West.

One of the great mysteries of the first half of the season is how the St. Louis Cardinals have 53-43 record. Based on talent and ability, more than half the teams in the NL have better one-two starting pitcher combo than Kyle Lohse and Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals. The bullpen has 13-20 record and has blown 20 saves; along with 4.29 ERA, which is 13th in the National League. The staff strikes out the fewest batters in the league, just on this information alone, it’s impossible to believe St. Louis would have the best road record in the NL at 27-22, +10.5 units. Yet the offense is second to Cubs in OBP, draws the 2nd most walks and is steady as it goes. The Cards are 5-1 to snag division crown and open with eight home games, including four with the Brew Crew. By August 14, everyone will have a good indication about the Tony LaRussa’s club, playing mostly contenders until that time.

Philadelphia is 2nd in runs scored, has the best bullpen in baseball, and yet can’t create any separation in NL East due to unstable starting pitching. It would seem the Phillies will try to add a starter by July 31 trade deadline, using Brett Myers as the bait for a team needing bullpen help. The offense has been more dissonant than expected and will face immediate test, at Florida and at New York, to start 12 of 15 road contests. Starting August 5, the Phillies play 15 of 22 at home. Philadelphia is just a shade behind Mets to win division crown at 11-10 and 9-2 to earn right to play in Fall Classic.

The Mets are a challenge to figure. After not being to get out of their own shadow, they close 9-0 to have the same number of losses as front-running Philly. Skeptics claim beating San Francisco and Colorado at home is not overly impressive; nevertheless, shutting them out four times in six encounters is an attention grabber. The offense has been tastier than a Nathan’s all-beef, scoring 6.2 runs per game in July. The schedule does not feature any long or short home or road trips and the furthest destination will be one time zone away at Houston. If the starting pitchers can deliver 6+ innings regularly, the warts the bullpen has can be masked pretty well. If the bats continue to grind, the Mets should win the East and 7-2 wager to return to Series is possible.

Just when it looks like it is time to right off Florida, they have resurgence. At 50-45, nobody takes them serious as real contenders (5-1 to win NL East), especially being -28 run differential. The Marlins give up too many runs (14th), allow too many free passes (14th), leaving the offense to pick up the slack. Somehow, someway, Florida scores in bunches and is 3rd in runs scored. Though they create natural wind flow leading the league in K’s, the Marlins find ways to manufacture wins. For exactly one month, Florida plays NL contenders, with possible exception of Colorado. Remember August 18 standings for Florida, it will tell the tale.

Arizona is a squad in real need of veteran leadership. This division is pathetic and they have found a way to bring others back into contention. Bullpen leaks oil, mostly on the road, the starting pitching could be great if Micah Owings and Randy Johnson find a groove. The hitters are too stubborn for their own good, whiffing 3rd most in the league. The D-Backs are 27-19 in downtown Phoenix and could use fast start, facing the Dodgers and Cubs at home. If successful, this creates immediate space in the standings. Build a small lead, hang on and wait until August 19, when the only trip is to sordid San Diego over next 15 ball games.

Like Arizona, the Los Angeles Dodgers are 1-1 odds to win NL West. Playing in Dodger Stadium helps L.A. surrender the fewest runs among the sixteen teams and strongly contributes to them being 13th in runs scored. The bullpen is second in the league in ERA, which means if this team is going to win division; the bats will have to come alive. With virtually no power (15th in home runs), how the Dodgers start magically scoring more runs is food for thought. A 3-3 road trip to commence second half is good beginning, with 20 of next 26 at home. If possible, Joe Torre’s club will want to have a lead in the division by September 8, when only six games will remain to be played at Dodger Stadium.

Because the NL West is so sad, San Francisco and Colorado have to be mentioned and now they have been.

Brett Favre Overdose

This whole Brett Favre situation has really taken a turn for the worse it seems. What’s most troubling is both sides are essentially talking about same elements that have occurred, with each interrupting the events in their own way. Both sides have valid points and I have no idea how this will get solved.

Those reporting in the media seem to be on board with Rodgers deserves chance since Favre retired. Hard to disagree there. Brett backers can’t get enough of this long time warrior and would support him if he threw a 100 interceptions (receivers just ran wrong routes, wink).

O.K. seeing I’m main writer for this blog, I should have opinion and do, though it’s different from what I wrote a week ago. Still being a Packers season ticket holder (Milwaukee version), I initially supported management, knowing I was a Green Bay fan before #4 and will be one after he leaves. I do feel for Aaron Rodgers, this does stink after all this time, but last I looked, life is like Forrest Gump said.

As a fan, I want the team I root for to have the best chance to win possible, period. If this situation comes to complete impasse, coach Mike McCarthy declares quarterback position open. That’s right, Fav-re quit, team needed commitment he could not deliver, gave his best answer at the time. Packers went with Rodgers, who is best available quarterback on the roster. Rodgers feels he deserves to be starter, Favre believes he’s proven (rightfully) he shouldn’t be backup. Have open competition in camp and let the best player earn the job. As a true competitor, both would be asked to perform at their best. While Rodgers might feel the situation is weighted against him, too damn bad. If you are truly the right QB for what ended up being the second best team in the NFC, show your worth.

Having previously lived in the state of the frozen tundra for many years, winning with Favre would be great, but winning with Rodgers will work also.

Though never really a huge fan of Billy Packer, was surprised he was either leaving or being shown the door. Listening to Packer describe games was generally a pleasure with his no-nonsense basketball-first style. His often aloof approach to the selection committee, the changes in the college game, left him seeming out of touch in the new millennium. His personal views about life and politics only alienated people, thus why would he bother other than to be heard.

In all honesty, thought Packer was better than he had been in years this past season. He was more into games, talked more frankly about players and situations. In different telecasts he observed O.J. Mayo and Eric Gordon were good, not great college players. He mentioned he understood, both would likely go in the NBA draft after the season, but were far from polished products. He talked about how dull the Big Ten tournament was, lacking top level players compared to other conferences. His remarks about North Carolina being done in the national Final Four game were priceless, as Jim Nantz and every CBS executive’s jaw fell to the floor based on his appraisal so early in the contest, of which the network is shelling out a 1, with a whole bunch of zeroes behind it to broadcast.

Thanks Billy, it’s been fun, as we move into the world of Clark Kellogg and “taking the orange to the tin” or “he’s got a lot in his bookbag”.

Baseball Betting Changes

Earlier this season while doing research, came across a rather curious trend in major league baseball. At that point, it had been winning at a high rate of return and though it has slowed down to a point, still delivering far better than average results. Having never seen it mentioned anywhere else, decided to see if it had any legs beyond this season.

The angle read this way – What does a baseball team do against the money line, after exactly three consecutive games of 10 or more hits and next contest is on the road?

What was uncovered, road teams in this role have lost 40 of 62 games played to date in 2008, a 35.4 winning percentage. Playing against these teams has earned a dependable +15.60 units of profit, right at the All-Star break. What has been a boom for bettors is profits have been available in all areas concerning the money line.

Road favorites are 9-12, -5.85 units
Road underdogs are 12-25, -7.60 units
Road team “Pick” 1-3, -2.15 units.

Is this trend an anomaly for this season or has this been missed by baseball betting researchers?
Went back to 2007 and found 124 instances of this occurring for the entire season and the results were far different than this current campaign. Last year road teams were 61-63 in the same scenario and actually showed a profit in all games.

Road favorites were 26-19, +2.85 units
Road underdogs were 31-39, +6.99 units
Road team “Pick” 4-5, -1.25 units.

When I started thinking about what these numbers would mean in terms of perception, had to try break it down two ways, with two different conclusions. It would seem if a team is hitting the ball well enough to post three consecutive games of double digit base-knocks, the carryover affect would be strong, no matter where they played, unless they happened to draw the ace of the opposing team’s staff.

Having started with the 2008 numbers first, developed another way of looking at this, surmising the road team has not been able to continue the momentum of swinging the lumber with a high degree of execution and just ran out of luck as the road team, with the law of average just catching up with them.

Decided to put on archeologist attire and dig into 2006 and see which way was more prevalent. As it turned out, the original perception was right on the money, with road teams showing large gains and significant profit.

Road favorites were 25-10, +13.45 units
Road underdogs were 34-41, +9.35 units
Road team “Pick” 4-10, -6.5 units.

This reinforced original belief a hot-hitting team is dangerous, even on the road. The confidence level is high for those in the lineup and they are less intimated by playing on the road as a whole. A piece of very useful information was found, showing road teams off three games of 10 or more hits that are a “Pick”, are mere 9-18 the last three years.

Going back to where we started, based on the previous two years, how does one explain the lack of success road teams have had in 2008? While no one answer will encompass the entire scope of this question, there would appear to be one explanation that generally covers why this has occurred to date. As of right now, only three teams have a winning road record in major league baseball. In 2007, seven teams ended up above .500 record as visiting team and 2006 saw a total of 10 squads finishing in-the-black as visitors. Those numbers correlate to highlighted figures.

Thus far, road teams are winning 43.1 percent of all games played compared to 46 percent the prior three seasons. Will the trend of playing against these specific road teams continue or will the numbers equal out by the end of the year as per usual? Of course their no way to know precisely, but every year in all the various sports, unusual situations go against the norm, this could be one worth following.

Free Baseball Picks at 3DW

Sorry to be so late, right up against game time, but was searching for top quality system and could not find one, thus will pass instead of putting something ordinary out there. After another 3-0 sweep of the board yesterday, 3Daily Winners has well regarded Perfect Trend and another swell Free Play ready for tonight. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) No top quality systems available today.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Baltimore continues to fetor on Sunday’s with 0-13 record.

Free Baseball Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection has another consensus play almost as strong as last night’s on the New York Mets.

Free Baseball Picks at 3DW

Mixed back Friday night with 2-1-1 record, not being far off from 4-0 or 1-3. Winning is winning, thus we’ll take it. An excellent system is ready to fire, with a 16-3 record, in the Big Apple today. Our top Trends are staying warmer than a Palm Springs summer day, with another on tap. An extremely rare consensus play, with a large core of LCC members all on one side. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST road teams like Colorado, when the money line is +125 to -125, with a bad bullpen that blows 38 percent or more of their save opportunities against opponent with a starting pitcher like Pedro Martinez, whose ERA is 6.70 or worse on the season (NL). This system is outstanding 16-3, 84.2 percent the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Boston is 16-2 this season when a favorite of -150 to -200.

Free Baseball Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection has 13 members with no dissenters backing the Angels in MLB action tonight.

Baseball Series Betting – L.A. Angels at Oakland

The Oakland Athletics might be the most peculiar team in all of major league baseball. Once again in the midst of a division chase, they end up trading one of the most prominent commodities, Rich Harden (plus others) to the Chicago Cubs and receive a bevy of mid-to-above average players. Oakland has come to epitomize the “small” in small market teams, continually developing young talent and when their time is about to come for a larger contract based on success, off they go in repetitive cycle, traded for younger players to start the process all over again. While the A’s organization is to be congratulated for having an distinct eye for the types of “moneyball’ players they prefer, in the end, they are only slightly closer to winning a champion then teams that are poorly run and have swings of brilliances and extreme failure over periods of time.

You would believe every Oakland fan would hate the Angels, with a passion. No shortage of cash to attract free agents, a deep farm system to deliver players on continual basis and ownership who has worked hard to attract fans. If that doesn’t make you jealous, nothing would. The Angels of Anaheim despite leading the AL West by five games over the A’s and having the second best record in the American League, have a leaky bullpen beyond Francisco Rodriguez. They are 20th in baseball in this category and will go stretches of games, especially on the road were they give up more hits than a 20-car pile on I-5.

This week, L.A. had problems with two Texas pitchers they have never seen, which could work to Oakland’s advantage. Sean Gallagher (3-4, 4.44, 1.353 WHIP), newly acquired from the Cubs, will make his first American League start. Gallagher possess an average fastball and slightly above average curve, but has shown the ability to work both sides of the plate. His thicker body type (not fat) suggests he could be an innings-eater. He’s backed up by fresh teammates who are 28-14 against the money line after two or more consecutive home games this season. L.A. will send John Garland (8-5, 3.76, 1.381 WHIP) to the mound in the opener contest. The Angels staff saw a flaw in Garland’s delivery when he was getting hammered in April and together they fixed it. Since then Garland has lowered his ERA by more than two full runs in the last 10 weeks. Garland is off a complete game, allowing one run against Toronto, unfortunately he is 3-11 after giving up one or less earned runs in last outing over the last two seasons. (Team's Record) This contest opened as a “Pick” at most Las Vegas wagering outlets, however the money has been mostly on the A’s who are now a -113 money line favorite. This might open the door for the Halos who are 21-8 after a road win and the teams Garland has pitched for are 13-4 as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last two years. The former White Sox hurler is only 4-10 lifetime against Oakland.

Game 1 Edge: A’s

On Saturday night, Los Angeles will send All-Star Ervin Santana (10-3, 3.53, 1.128) to toe the rubber. Santana is still only 25-years old and was known prior to this season as having the greatest home/road splits in the big leagues. Through continued hard work and developing mental toughness, he is 7-1 with 3.77 ERA on the road. Santana’s more dogged approach has contributed to the Halos sensational road record (29-17) and coming into the series, they are 39-31 under the lights. Lefty Dana Eveland (7-5, 3.50, 1.380) is manager Bob Geren’s choice in middle encounter. Eveland will have his work cut out for him facing Pedro Guerrero and other right-handed sticks, with the Angels 16-6 this season facing port-siders. The A’s will try to get into manager Mike Scioscia’s bullpen, since they are 48-27 at McAfee Coliseum vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75 percent or more of their save opportunities since 2006.

Game 2 Edge: Angels

By the time the series finale starts, another Angels All-Star hurler, Joe Saunders (12-5, 3.07, 1.130) and his wife should be parents for the first time. Saunders has been a bit more unstable, with 3-3 record since June 9, with his control the obvious issue. When the lefty is right, he works quickly, throws strikes and mows down hitters. When Saunders is off a little, he fidgets more on the mound and tries to be too fine, usually missing high and outside. He will go up against Justin Duchscherer (10-5, 1.78, 0.861), who will be the A’s lone representative in New York for the All-Star festivities. Duchscherer, if anything is underrated. His impeccable command has seen him walk more than two batters once in 15 starts. His ERA speaks for itself and in his five losses, the Athletics generated a measly five total runs. Both teams have flourished under the light of day with Oakland 18-12 and L.A. 16-6.

Game 3 Edge: Under

This underappreciated rivalry is one of the best in the major leagues. The Angels hold the upper-hand with 6-4 record this season and have won 13 of 22 in the city by the bay, including taking two of three earlier this campaign. Every reason to believe this will be hotly contested series, with the A’s winning a pair of close conflicts.

Sportsbooks series odds: Angels -110, Athletics -110

3Daily Winners Pick: A’s

Free Baseball Picks at 3DW

The Top Trend and Free Pick were both easy winners on Thursday. Tonight’s top Trend takes us to the City of Brotherly Love, an 86.6 percent winner and Kendall from the LCC, has 2 Free plays. Our System play is on the totals side and wins 81.6 percent of the time. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY UNDER on home teams like Boston, where the total is 10 or higher, after a game where they had 17 or more hits, with starting pitcher like Clay Buchholz who has a WHIP 2.000 or higher over his last three starts. This fairly rare system is 31-7, 81.6 percent the last 11 years and is making debut in 2008.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Philadelphia and Kyle Kendrick are 13-2 this season in night games.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Kendall of the Left Coast Connection has nailed 11 of last 13 plays in all sports and gave out Free Winner yesterday. Tonight he’s playing Cleveland and Milwaukee to continue to winning ways.