Be Smart in Betting NFL Pre-Season

Many professional bettors and those that wager significant amounts of money on NFL football have differing opinions on this topic. There are those that see this as a real opportunity to build up a bankroll, taking advantage of lines they consider weak, especially totals. Others take the opposite approach and are extremely selective or pass all together, with too many variables that come into place which do not give them the advantage they are used to holding. While nobody is right or wrong based on personal taste, there are definitely wise precautions to take and enhance your position and make additional cash.

Never bet just to bet

One of the gentlemen from Las Vegas I spoke to said, “They line up at the windows like salivating dogs, dying to place that first football wager. I sit back and laugh my ass off watchin’ those fools so damn anxious to give away their money.” His point is well taken, the first couple of games are not necessarily the best games to bet on, be selective.

Know coaching tendencies

This is big, since August NFL football is completely different from the regular season. Coach like Tony Dungy of Indianapolis uses this month to prepare team for the regular season, not to win games. He plays it more vanilla than his public persona and the Colts play accordingly with 3-10 ATS record in last 13 outings. No matter whom the coach is; Dallas is another team that doesn’t place much stock in winning and is 16-29-2 ATS as a favorite in the preseason.

Other coaches want to establish a winning atmosphere from day one. Bill Belichick is one such coach and he is 7-0-1 ATS in week 1. Denver, with Mike Shanahan and all the coaches that came before him have wanted to win from the get-go and are 22-6 ATS for that first preseason game. The Broncos don’t mess around either off a loss, being 12-2-1 ATS if they were beaten as a favorite.

First year coaches and those feeling the pressure of poor previous seasons, will turn up the heat on players and demand immediate results to let the players know who is in charge or things have to change in order to have greater success. These head coaches want more of a sense of urgency.

Seek the right spot to find winners

Sal from the Left Coast Connection said this, “You’ll find plenty of gold backing teams winning or losing by 12 or more points. When teams win big, coaches will play nice to keep the players happy and they’re often unmotivated in next game, love to play against those teams. Conversely, a team plays badly, the head coach will become a lunatic and the players will go out and beat the crap out of next opponent just to shut the coach up.” Great example of this last August was Baltimore destroyed Philadelphia 29-3 at home as three-point favorites. The next contest, still playing at home, they were out-rushed 182-75 by the New York Giants and lost 13-12 as field goal favorites.

Look for bad scheduling spots

Last season the Green Bay Packers dismantled Seattle 48-13 on a Saturday in the second week of the preseason. The so-called all important third game is thought to be the dress rehearsal for the regular season, however the Pack had to come back just five days later to play Jacksonville in a nationally televised encounter and were defeated 21-13, as coach Mike McCarthy decided to not play regulars as much and word leaked out. Green Bay went from a 2.5-point favorite to three-point home underdog.

Read various team pages

As opposed to the regular season, when every coach become more tight-lipped then Teller (the guy that doesn’t talk) of Penn and Teller, coaches will openly discuss with the media their plans from game to game and provide information that provides insights to all the teams. Pick your favorite site and read up. One Vegas insider confided, “I wouldn’t bet a nickel unless I knew what the coach was thinking (in the preseason).”

Understand money management

Nobody will get rich betting NFL football this time of year, however serious damage could be done to a bankroll by being foolhardy trying to cash in. Set strict limits on each wager and NEVER deviate. Take your winnings into the regular season to have more to work with, instead of foolishly doubling down on a streak of good luck.

3Daily Winners take Time-Out

The 3Daily Winners crew is heading to Vegas to hit the tables and have a LITTLE FUN. No plays for Sunday for sure, Monday is very possible. Based on Monday night's plans, forget Tuesday, back in the saddle on Wednesday, hopefully with thicker wallets.

Good Luck to all of you.

Free Baseball Selections on Major Roll

You have to admit, this is fun getting Free Plays that are on 18-4 run, including 3-0yesterday. If you liked Friday’s Top System, you will love today’s with 42-5 record. Paul Buck, chief handicapper at 3DW is burning up the base paths and has another Free pick. Top Trends have been hotter than then Bullhead City, AZ and feature Boston. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON all favorites like Milwaukee, with a money line of -175 to -250, with a rested bullpen, that has thrown two innings or less in each of the last two games against opponent after a game where the bullpen threw six or more innings. This unique system is 42-5, 89.4 percent in last 11 years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Pitcher John Lester and Boston are 14-2 in the second half of the season in his career.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck has been smokin’, hitting seven of his last nine MLB plays and is on Minnesota again to scalp the Tribe as his Free Play.

Free Baseball Selections, with Awesome System

Another winning 2-1 day has 3Daily Winners on nice 15-4 run. Today’s Top System is a remarkable 84.4 percent and must be considered. Will the Dodgers bounce back off 2-1 at home to Arizona, read the Top Trend for insight. Paul Buck returns with one his best plays of the day. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON home favorites like Tampa Bay with a money line of -175 to -250, with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL), after allowing two runs or less. This awesome system is 60-11, 84.4 percent. The average differential in these games has been +2.7 runs, plus you have to like the fact the Rays are 40-16 at The Trop.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Los Angeles Dodgers are 3-10 after a one run loss.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck has hit four of his last six MLB plays and is on Minnesota to maul Cleveland as his Free Play.

Free Baseball Selections at 3Daily Winners

After yesterday’s perfect 3-0 day, the 3Daily Winners plays are 13-3 since last Saturday. The LLC has another consensus Free play looking for two in a row. The Top Trends keep winning and showcase the big battle out West in the National League. Top System play takes a look at final White Sox and Twins matchup, with 80+ percent play. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like the White Sox with a money line of +100 or higher, starting a pitcher like John Danks who did not walk a hitter in last outing (six innings), with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 15 games. This system perks up bettor’s days being 37-9 record, 80.4 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Brandon Webb and Arizona are 11-2 in NL West road contests.

Free Baseball Selection -3) After being correct yesterday, five members of the Left Coast Connection have Cardinals as Best Bet, with nobody supporting Atlanta.

2008 Indianapolis Colts Preview

Even off of last year’s stunning playoff loss to San Diego, plenty of excitement abounds the Colts facilities this season. The opening of Lucas Oil Stadium has the town buzzing and Indianapolis did not suffer many casualties to free agency. The Colts ended up allowing the fewest points in the league (16.4 PPG), but the omnipresent pass rush was curtailed when Dwight Freeney went down. The return to health of Freeney and others should have the Colts back on course.

With Peyton Manning, the “other Manning” these days, he’s been freed to work on improving himself and showing the patience he occasionally lacked last season. This situation took a bit of a U-turn when Manning had to have what essentially was emergency surgery on his knee, due to infection, which had suddenly caused him pain in early July. While playing in one of the Colts' final two preseason games remains a possibility, Manning's primary goal is to be fully prepared for the Sept. 7 season and home opener against the Chicago Bears.

Marvin Harrison has looked good thus far in camp, with no noticeable limp and the more familiar explosiveness Colts fans are used to. Manning learned to play without Harrison the second half of the season and no longer needs him as security blanket. Peyton still led an offense that was third in points scored (28.1), fifth in total offense (358.7 YPG) and number one in third down conversion at 49.3 percent. It’s hard to find much fault, as long as Bill Polian and Tony Dungy are in charge.

There is a very good reason why Indianapolis has been as good as they have without a decline. GM Bill Polian and head coach Tony Dungy live in the present, always thinking about the future. The Colts lost G Jake Scott and back-up TE Ben Utecht, yet was able to keep every other player they needed. The offense line, though still strong, was given full attention, with three picks used. Arizona State’s Mike Pollack was chosen first and Remington runner-up, C Steve Justice was chosen in sixth round. Pollack is already showing promise, sharing playing time early in camp with vet Charlie Johnson at right guard for the departed Scott. The Colts M.O. has been to choose versatile linemen who can play more than one position and ultimately excel at one, once they find their niche. Tough Mike Hart of Michigan will compete for carries behind Joe Addai and bring winning attitude to the club. Adding outside linebackers Marcus Howard and Philip Wheeler means more speed from players that look like a good fit for Dungy’s defensive system. The beat goes on in Indy.

2008 Outlook- The expression, “luck is a residue of design” embarks what Indianapolis Colts are all about. GM Polian has carefully crafted a roster in harmony to his and coach Dungy’s preferences. Though the Colts are heavily wagered upon, they have still managed to be 15-10-1 ATS on the road the last three years. Indianapolis has the NFL’s second toughest schedule, yet nothing to fret; they just keep putting up “W’s” and head off all challengers. The Colts at 4-1, is quality wager to win the AFC. Even with the teams in the division improving and rugged slate of games, you either bet Indianapolis to go Over 11 wins at wagering outlets or pass.

Free Baseball Winners at 3Daily Winners

A 2-1Tuesday, with System and Trend plays coming up Winners. Today’s Top System goes right back to Texas, with 79.1 winning percentage. With Atlanta crying “uncle”, the Top Trend assesses their chances against the Redbirds. The Free Play in a consensus selection from the Left Coast Connection. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON home favorites with a money line of -150 or more like Texas, a good offensive team scoring 5.2 or more runs a game on the season (AL), after a combined score of 15 runs or more. This system is sultry 57-15, 79.1 percent since 2006 and average winning margin is 2.5 runs per game.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Atlanta is 4-16 with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 15 games over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Six members of the Left Coast Connection have Arizona as Best Bet, with nobody backing San Diego.

Free Baseball Selections from 3Daily Winners

Our Top Trend was yet again a winner for a 1-1 day at 3DW. A new member of the LCC has started well in hitting 75 percent of his plays and he’s focused on Tampa Bay and Toronto matchup as his top selection. The Top Trend is back, with another 100 percent perfect angle, which has won nine of last 10. Today’s Top System is in the American League and is 85.7 Winner the last three seasons. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON home favorites, like Texas with money line of -110 or higher, with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season, against opponent with a starting pitcher like Carlos Silva (4-12, 5.62 ERA), whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season (AL). Since 2006, this has been killer system at 18-3, 85.7 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Milwaukee is 9-0 OVER when the total is 7.5 or less.

Free Baseball Selection -3) A newer member of the Left Coast Connection has gotten off to a good start with 6-2 record and he has Toronto as his best play tonight. (All Free Plays are 80-37, since this blog started.)

Free Baseball Plays at 3Daily Winners

The L.A. Angels prevented another perfect day, instead settled for just 3-1. (We know that’s good) In the National League, one dominant pitcher tries to extend streak in our Top Trend, while the Free Play in taking place in the Bronx. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) No truly valuable systems going today. Since we started this blog, System plays are 40-23.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Houston’s Roy Oswalt is 19-1 against Cincinnati lifetime.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Slick Rick is back from the Left Coast Connection and is on the New York Yankees to extend home winning streak to 11 games.

Random Thoughts for a Sunday

Been another hectic week, trying to get everything in place with upcoming football season. Went to Cubs and Arizona game, this past Wednesday, in which Chicago won 10-6. The funniest aspect of the night was when Reed Johnson hit grand slam home run to put the Cubs up 10-3, you would have sworn every D-Backs fan in attendance just was text-messaged their car was on fire in the parking lot. I've never seen so many people leave a sporting event at one time before the game was over. Hilarious.

Yesterday our Top System play had Philadelphia and it is now 30-1. Truth is, it was a function of luck and skill. Cole Hamels and other Phillies pitchers were lit for nine runs in the four inning and Atlanta led 9-3. In the bottom of the fifth, Philly scored seven runs to take a 10-9 lead and hung on to win by that exact score. What's interesting about the final score, is this was the 14th one run road loss (0-14 this season) for the Bravos and they lost 20 in a row dating back to August 10, 2007. That reminds of Seattle Mariners some years ago, who went seven games without back-to-back hits.

This whole Brett Favre thing has become about as interesting at a Britney Spears story. Like I said and I heard Mel Kiper Jr. even say (for what that's worth), Favre reports to camp, declares he wants to compete for job and if he beats out Rodgers fair and square, no beefs and if other teams have injuries to starting QB's in preseason, Green Bay has leverage to make trade. Packers asking (wanting?) for 1st round pick is stupid, no team other than Oakland would be dumb.

Does anyone know what's going on with the Cleveland Indians? One game away from the World Series last October and now are willing to deal almost any player for remastered CD's of Emerson, Lake and Palmer (for those that don't get this, think of commercial that have song "Welcome back my friends to the show that never ends") or Blackfoot!

With the new term- Bucket List- working on one of mine this week, after all these years, going to CrueFest to see Motley Crue. Can't wait.

Free Baseball Plays and more at 3Daily Winners

Those 3-0 days are always a welcome sight at 3Daily Winners, let’s go get some more. Top System takes us over to Oakland and has been right on the money with 79.9 percent Winners. Review today’s top Trend to see if Colorado should sweep Cincy. Kendall goes for three Free Winners in a row, will he do it? Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Texas with a money line of +100 or higher, starting a pitcher like Eric Hurley who gave up one or less earned runs last outing (one run, 5 2/3 innings) against opponent with a cold starting pitcher like Dana Eveland, who has WHIP 2.000 or higher over his last three starts. One again this follows baseball betting logic, If Hurley and the hot-hitting Rangers were really believable, oddsmakers would make them a favorite in this spot. This system is 49-13, 79.9 percent the last five years and Texas is 13-23 against lefties.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Colorado is 16-2 after allowing two runs or less in BB games.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Kendall of the Left Coast Connection is in 11-4 run +8.95 units in baseball and is going right back to backing the Los Angeles Angels for a third straight time, expecting the sweep. I’d like to add, I’m playing San Jose +4 in ArenaBowl title game today. The LCC is 9-8 Philadelphia on this game for those interested. Nobody has this as big play.

Free Baseball Plays at 3Daily Winners

A steady as it goes 2-1 Friday. Today we have what might be the best System play we have found all year, at least record wise, amazing. Kendall of the LCC was on the money with the Angels last night, what is his Top Play tonight? Our Top Trend focuses on Minnesota, in a very interesting situation. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like Atlanta with a money line of +175 to +250, batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a hot starting pitcher like Cole Hamels of the Phillies with a WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. This truly astonishing system is 29-1, that’s correct, 29-1 the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Minnesota is 12-1 after scoring four runs or less five straight games.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Kendall of the Left Coast Connection is in 8-3 run +5.95 units in baseball and is going right back to backing the Los Angeles Angels again tonight.

2008 Washington Redskins Preview

With the first exhibition game just over a week away, NFL talk is coming fast and furious. Washington and Indianapolis will play in the Hall-of-Fame game on Sunday, August 3. This week we’ll take a look at the Redskins chances for the upcoming season and see what the best bet for season total wins is.

Joe Gibbs was never able to re-create his success in return visit to Washington, other than a couple of playoff appearances. Gibbs had given it his all, but the demands were more than he wanted to continue to deal with and new head coach Jim Zorn was hired to build on last year’s 9-7 campaign. Gibbs never quite found the magic, having hired assistant coaches that he was more comfortable with (his age) who never really effectively attacked opponent’s weakness. Gibbs spiritualism did help guide the team thru last year’s senseless death of Sean Taylor and as a human being, Gibbs should be commended for that alone.

One of the first orders of business is to restructure the offense. Quarterback Jason Campbell is still a work in progress and Zorn believes he can teach him to be more effective. The offense only ranked 20th in points scored (20.9) and 20th in total offense at 333.3 yards per game. Adding weapons thru the draft should make the offense more productive, especially in the second half of the season when a higher degree of comfort is met. Campbell will have the chance to be more effective in traditional West Coast offense, featuring slants and passes into the flat.

What could be more challenging for the new coach is maintain excellence on the defense. In 2007, the Redskins were 8th in total defense and 11th in points allowed. That was on the heels of being 30th in yards allowed in 2006, after being 8th in same category in 2005. DC Gregg Williams super aggressive schemes have been replaced by new DC Greg Blache, who was not deemed good enough to hold the job after 2004 season and had been managing the defense line in our nation’s capital since. Washington has age on the left side of defense, which could hold them back from moving forward in Zorn’s maiden adventure as the skipper.

It was nearly impossible to comprehend, but owner Dan Snyder’s wallet actually had dust coming out of this off-season. For the first time since buying the Redskins, Danny Boy made no splashy signings (unless you’re related to former Texans WR Jerome Mathis). In spite of only three playoff appearances since taking ownership, Snyder trusted his staff and new coach Jim Zorn. Under Joe Gibbs second tour of duty in Washington, he made a point to have munchkin receivers. This placed added pressure on QB Jason Campbell to make the perfect throws down the field. This time, the Skins chose the right path and landed 6’2 Devin Thomas and 6’4 Malcolm Thomas. In a weak group of wide receivers, this tandem were rated two of the best three. Trojans TE Fred Davis has good skills and could free up Chris Cooley in down the field routes. Executive vice president Vinny Cerrato was not afraid to play to Zorn’s strengths on the offensive side, nonetheless, has harbored criticism for not better addressing age in the defensive line and strong side LB spots. After losing DE Philip Daniels with tear to left knee ligament the first day of training camp, Cerrato picked up the phone and made trade for Jason Taylor to shore up weak area.

2008 Outlook – It’s the dawning of a new era in Washington, with Jim Zorn taking the reins. While improvement seems to be the theme for the Redskins, they received no help from NFL schedule maker. They are the sacrificial lamb in season opener at the Meadowlands for the Super Bowl champs. Also, back-to-back road division games pop-up in Weeks 4 and 5 against Dallas and Philadelphia respectively. From that point Washington needs to play well, since the season concludes with four of last six away from FedEx Field.

The Redskins are presumed to be better in certain areas, nonetheless, putting in new offensive and defensive schemes takes time for adjustment, for the players and coaches. Unless Zorn is the second coming of Bill Walsh, it will take Redskins players time to figure where they need to be on both sides of the ball. In the first part of the year, this means more thinking than reacting, which in this league is the difference between a first down or a tackle for loss. Zorn also will make first year coaching mistakes, further complicating more positive results. Possible tough sledding in Zorn’s first year and we’ll support the Under 7.5 total.

Free Baseball Plays at 3Daily Winners

Top Trend was easy winner backing Roy Halladay and moves on to the big Yankees/Red Sox rivalry, starting this evening. Kendall’s back from the Left Coast Connection and is backing one of the Los Angeles teams as his Top Play and has opinion on CFL selection. Our System play is in the American League and is 80.5 percent the last five seasons. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON home favorites with money line of -110 or higher like Cleveland, with a mediocre bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 like Livan Hernandez on the season (AL). This system has racked up the winners with 41-10 mark the last five years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Boston Red Sox are 20-3 playing into double revenge.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Kendall’s heating up again in baseball and is using the L.A. Angels as his best bet today. He also mentioned to take a strong look at Hamilton with the points in the CFL.

Free Baseball Selections for July 24

Nice rebound yesterday with 3-1 record. Very seldom do you ever see two poor days in a row at 3Daily Winners, since we seek quality information on these Free plays just like the articles that are written. Top notch System play going, which is hitting over 80 percent since 2004. Today’s Top Trend has a pitcher dominating an opponent. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against all underdogs like Kansas City, with a money line of +100 or higher, after five straight games where they stranded seven or less runners on base, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 8.00 the last five games. Why this system works is teams like the Royals are not hitting and their pitching is getting battered. This system is 62-15, 80.5 percent, including perfect 2-0 this year.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Toronto with Ray Halladay starting is 17-3 against Baltimore since 2001.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Most members of the Left Coast Connection including myself are passing today.

Free Baseball Plays from 3Daily Winners

Bad day all the way around yesterday, as everything took a beating. Started today right with System Play a winner and Yankees play was accurate. I'll add one more play for tonight, you can read below. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON all favorites with a money line of -150 or more like Tampa Bay, who are below average hitting team (BA .265 or less), against a good starting pitcher like the A’s Greg Smith (5-8, 3.79), who has an ERA of 4.20 or less in the AL, in the second half of the season. This system is 68-16, 81 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Colorado is 13-0 Over after scoring 9 or more runs in back to back games.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Haven’t received all information yet, thus will give out play I like thus far on the Yankees. UPDATE- Seeing I hit the Yankees, I'll go with other New York team tonight.

Free Baseball Picks at 3Daily Winners

Another 2-1 winning day at 3DW, and our friends at StatFox sent over a top notch System play that has two teams in the mix. The Top Trend of the day seeks two in a row, looking in on Tampa Bay. Our pal Sal from the LCC, has put together great runs here with his Free Plays and has one going today. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs against a +1.5 run line, (Money Line in -190 to +165 range) with a team on-base percentage .320 or worse on the season (AL), in the second half of the season. This run line system is 21-5, 80.7 percent this season and shows Cleveland and Oakland as play against teams.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Tampa Bay is 17-1 as -150 to -200 home favorite this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal from the Left Coast Connection is heating up again, pounding out 8-2 record the last three days and is backing Jake Peavy and San Diego.

Understanding Baseball’s Magic Number 4

The major league baseball All-Star break was a welcome relief for many, a time to take a few days off to stretch the mind, offer a few more simple pleasures and generally take it easy. For others, the void is an unwelcome interruption from the daily grind of churning out numbers. Having studying numbers with regularity at least since April, if not dating back to November when the NBA season started, this chasm is a break that throws off the kismet of where a sports bettor expects to end up.

For those of us that fit the latter group, a healthy exercise is to reflect where we have been and where we are going. This season to date in major league baseball, 4.5 has been the number, this is what all teams have averaged either scoring or allowing in 2008. Since half-numbers of course are impossible to determine outcomes, decided to choose what is the most talked about number in the media these days –four- like the one Brett Favre has worn.

For starters, let’s review the division leaders or those who are very close. The Los Angeles Angels have held opponents 65 times to four runs or less among its 98 games (66.3 percent) and not surprisingly are tied for the best record in baseball. Boston and Tampa Bay are in a dogfight in the AL East and the Red Sox have held opponent to four or fewer runs 57 times and the first place Rays on 58 different occasions. Division leaders out of Chicago, the White Sox and the Cubs, have held opponents to four runs or less 55 and 57 times respectively.

The importance of this figure is shown by the results of another division leader, Arizona. When the D-Backs started 20-8, 19 times (67.8 percent) they held the opposing team to four or fewer runs. Since then, that percent has fallen to 47.1, as only 33 times in the next 70 contests have the Snakes held opponents below this number, in part, accounting for 28-42. With Arizona’s lack of hitting receiving so much attention in slide, aside from All-Stars Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, the rest of the pitching staff has been mediocre at best.

How important is this stat as it relates to teams having winning streaks? Consider the New York Mets as the most recent example. The Mets had won 10 in a row, to catapult back into the NL East race. During that hot streak they were12-2 in those 14encounters, surrendering more than four runs just three times. Compare this success with what it’s taken in blocks of games in which they held opponents to this few of runs. Prior to this successful point in time, it took 24 games to hold foes 12 times below five runs (10-14 record). Before then, 22 games (11-11) and starting April 19, it took 24 trips to the ballpark (11-13) to reach the figure of 12 again, proving how important good pitching is.

The St. Louis Cardinals are a surprise team, hanging around the lead in the NL Central, despite incredible injuries to many pitchers. Manager Tony LaRussa and pitching coach Dave Duncan have pieced together pitching staff, and when the Cards to teams to 0-to-4 runs, they are 47-17 in 2008.

Minnesota’s 24-9 run to creep ever closer to Chicago, has been fueled by great pitching, as clubs in other uniforms have scored four or less runs 23 times.

Because of the differences of ballparks, teams style of play, this is theory is not absolute and has a flip side relating to scoring runs. The San Diego Padres play in the most extreme pitcher’s park in baseball and have matched the Chicago White Sox for allowing opponents to score four or less runs 55 times. The Padres problems revolve around offense, since an enormous 67 times (67.6 percent for those keeping track at home), they have failed to score five or more runs in a game.

Weak hitting teams like Washington and Seattle do not score enough runs with or without decent pitching. The Nationals have failed to break the barrier beyond four runs 61 times and the Mariners an even worse 66 times.

Detroit’s pitching has been suspect all season, thus they are more dependent on scoring runs. In the Tigers first 60 games, they failed to touch home plate five times 27 different ways, this led to 24-36 record. In last 38 contests, they have scored a minimum of five runs 24 times and are 25-13 to square up record at .500.

Do you think Florida counts on hitting? The Marlins are 52-46 and have been outscored by 25 runs in 2008, thanks to allowing the third most runs in the National League. When Florida scores five runs or more, they are 48-14. When the Fish swim into four or fewer runs, they are miserable 14-32.

For those handicapping these figures, you have to understand what you are working with. It a team doesn’t score runs, and is facing starting pitcher with quality earned run average and is backed up with good bullpen, they are not going to have much success. In this situation, to seek value, you would need this team probably to be at home, scoring runs at above average rate of five or more contests and having their number one or two starter throwing. If these elements come together, a solid play on home underdog is worth contemplating.

The other aspect is to match the team’s recent play with how they are scoring and allowing runs compared to the oddsmakers total. If two clubs have been scoring five or more runs, for six or more games on average and the total is 8.5 for example, the oddsmaker is telling us two good starting hurlers are facing one another. In this case, it is a matter of understanding bullpens and which team is better equipped to play lower scoring game, knowing this should lead you down the path of profitability in the second half of the season.

Free Baseball Picks at 3Daily Winners

The White Sox bullpen caused 3Daily Winners to “settle” for 3-1 day on Sunday. The System play today is remarkable; having won 38 of 41 times it has come up. Today’s Top Trend takes us right back to Coffee Town, where Starbucks $8 coffees are no longer the rage on a budget. Since we started giving out Free Plays on this blog, our record is 78-32, 70.9 percent. Paul Buck was correct on both plays on Sunday and has the Winner on NL East showdown. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON all favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 like Tampa Bay, who are below average hitting team ( BA .265 or less), against a good starting pitcher like Dana Eveland (7-6, 3.49 ERA) who has an ERA of 4.20 or less in the AL, in the second half of the season. Logic dictates there is a reason why the Rays should be such a large favorite, despite shortcomings in two mentioned situations. This system is incredible at 38-3, 92.7 percent the last 11 seasons.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Seattle is 3-16 after playing consecutive games Over.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck has been making serious cash, hitting 15 of last 21 wagers, including both Winners here yesterday. He’s on Florida today to keep streak going.

Free Baseball Picks at 3Daily Winners

Rare 1-2 day at 3Daily Winners and we’ll look to climb right back in the saddle today. Yesterday’s winner was a System selection and we have another stupendous one is available hitting 86.2 percent. We uncovered a 100 percent Top Trend and these have near perfect all baseball season. Paul Buck is bucking the system and has 2 outstanding Free Plays. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more like Kansas City, who are poor power team averaging less than a home run per game, against a starting pitcher like John Danks who gives up 0.5 or less long balls a start, after five straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base. This awesome system is 50-8, 86.2 percent the last 11 years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Seattle has yet to win in nine tries after allowing more than 9 runs in last contest in 2008.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck has been on a nice ride, hitting 12 of last 16 wagers and is on Detroit in MLB and gives out Toronto minus the points in Canadien football as his best play in that sport thus far this season.