College Football Must Read Info

Over the last several years I have tracked what are so-called “wise guys” plays. What do I mean by that? Bettors who are movers and shakers are the most feared people by any oddsmakers. They are usually the first to attack lines with veracity and alter perceptions early in the week. I’ll be the first to tell you they are not always right and our numbers have become somewhat more muddled as more people want to pretend they are as smart as those that have and do this for a living for an extended period of time.

South Carolina -11.5 to -14 Win
Troy -4.5 to -6.5 Win
Michigan -5.5 to -3
Mississippi -11.5 to -7.5
Oklahoma State -5 to -7
Wyoming -9 to -11
Florida -28 to -34.5
USC -17 to -19
Auburn -28.5 to -26
So. Miss. -13.5 to -10.5
Clemson -7 to -4.5
Kansas -41 to -35.5

I also follow the totals yet will not show them, since these lines have been picked apart far too long. I’ll report them, next week. I will also do this for the NFL. Enjoy.

College Football Free Plays for Saturday

A 2-1 day sets the table for the opening of college football weekend. We have a unique System play from StatFox, which has been 36-11 in past. Our guy from the LCC has slam-dunked the books, hitting an incredible dozen straight winners and has another ready to fire today in college football. Our Top Trends looks at road favorite with poor history. Good Luck.

Free Football System -1) PLAY AGAINST home teams like Virginia, who were poor passing defensive from last season, allowing a completion percentage of 58% or worse, in a non-conference game between two teams from FBS conferences. This system is 36-11, 76.6 percent.

Free Football Trend -2) Tulsa is breaking in a new quarterback and is two touchdown road favorite. The Golden Hurricane is 2-10-1 ATS in road openers the last 13 years.

Free Football Selection -3) A professional bettor from the Left Coast Connection who demands his privacy is on 12-0 run in all sports. Yesterday he gave us Temple, which won handily and was also on Rice. Today he’s riding the Oklahoma State Cowboys minus the points.

Friday August 29, Free Plays from 3Daily Winners

Quiet, we have a professional bettor on a sizzling streak; see his Top Play of the Day below. Our System play was poised for 2-0 day, however the Cleveland Browns had three separate chances to put the Bears away and cover and failed each time. They deserve to be 0-4. It’s back to baseball for today’s best System, which is Totals play that is nailing winners 85 percent of the time. The first place Tampa Rays are in terrific MLB Trend. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY OVER on road teams like Chicago White Sox, when the total is 9 to 9.5, with a hot starting pitcher like Javier Vazquez, with WHIP of 0.800 or less over his last three starts and the team has an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last 10 games. This system is sick 34-6, 85 percent since 2004, with average score being 12 total runs.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Tampa Bay is 22-1 as a money line favorite of -150 to -200.

Free Football Selection -3) A professional bettor from the Left Coast Connection who prefers his privacy is on 10-0 run in all sports with conservative style. Yesterday he gave us the Cubs and played Vanderbilt, tonight he’s playing Temple -7.

Strong Points for Betting College Football Early

Most everybody wagering on college football has done a fair amount of studying college football in preparation for the beginning of the season. Yet until any of us can see teams play or study boxscores, a certain amount of uncertainty still is in the air. College coaches believe they have prepared their teams well, yet unlike the NFL, you don’t get to hit against another team in a relatively competitive situation. This is a cause for consternation for coaches and bettors alike wondering what is best method to approach beginning of college football betting season.

Two simple elements to look for are returning offensive and defensive linemen, plus quarterbacks. A team loaded with experience up front has been through spring and summer practices and knows what the expectations of the coaches are and what it will take to win in their respective conferences. Teams that return four or five offensive linemen have the continuity aspect down cold and barring coaching changes, just have to go out and execute game plan. Defensively, a veteran cast up front can cover up deficiencies in other areas for the short term.

Every year, we hear about a team being better than expected in November, having upperclassmen leadership on the offensive line with experience. Coincidently, a team may have all key skill position players back, yet struggles, as newcomers on either side of the pigskin were neither good enough nor cohesive for the team to meet expectations, causing bettors to squander money.

An experienced signal caller can be a huge plus, especially for an underdog team. If he has enough weapons around him, he places his team in position to pull upset or at least cover the backdoor late in a game, if he has ability to throw the ball well.

We contacted Ed from RightAngleSports to share his thoughts about this topic. Ed is one of the most respected handicappers in college sports and he provided these insights. “One area I look at is teams with new coaches. Some people believe these coaches might have edge since the opponent doesn’t know what’s coming. Though I haven’t completed all my research, teams with new head coach, against lined opponent, are 14-29 against the spread since 2003 in opening games. I like to play against these teams especially if they are changing offensive systems. This can be especially true if a new quarterback is taking over.”

Ed also had opinion on the Totals of these early encounters. “A lot of the totals are not adjusted enough when a coach brings in new system. If a coach brings in a new system (offense) that is pass-oriented, which is different than the year before, oddsmakers will be slow to adjust until they see what happens, wanting to be cautious before making adjustments. They will move the number to a degree, just not a great deal.”

“As a general philosophy, if you like an underdog early in the season, consider the money line as a value play, with better payouts if they pull the upset, which happens every year.”

If you like to follow trends, don’t get caught up leaning on them, since many non-conference teams don’t play one another often enough for these angles to matter, unless they are traditional rivalries like Notre Dame and Michigan. It’s always tempting to add validity to team this 11-1 ATS against an opponent, the problem here could be they have played those dozen games over 40-year period, rendering trend useless.

Steve Makinen from StatFox had this to offer,” Be sure to utilize the returning starter information but don't assume that a wealth of experience returning or lack thereof automatically means a lot. For instance, a team that won two games a year ago might not be better off with a lot of starting players back. Meanwhile, a program on the rise or one that has been solid for a number of years will probably maintain its success even if it isn't returning a lot of core players. Be careful when making these assumptions. Many pointspreads are predicated upon this information and can often be misleading.”

Follow these tips to help you start on the winning side for this big opening weekend of five days of college football betting.

Free Sports Selections for Thursday

A fine string of winners on System plays was broken, contributing to 1-2 day. Today we tackle the NFL with a hard to fathom preseason system. The Top Trend was a winner yesterday and will go for two straight, peeking in on Atlanta and Florida contest. A silent member from the LCC is on unbeaten streak and sends in his Top Play for Thursday. Good Luck.

Free Football System -1) PLAY AGAINST road teams in the NFL after three or more consecutive losses against the spread, in August games. This week that would be Chicago and New England. This system is disquieting 24-1, spanning a period from when the Buffalo Bills became the first team to lose three straight Super Bowls.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Atlanta is 4-15 against the money line in home games with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 15 games.

Free Baseball Selection -3) A professional bettor from the Left Coast Connection who prefers his privacy is on 8-0 run in all sports with conservative style. Tonight he’s riding the Chicago Cubs on the money line.

College Football – Paying Attention Matters

I said yesterday I would have my biggest surprise and disappointing teams. I wasn’t thinking clearly that I could do this since yesterday was my wedding anniversary, so that was a bad idea to think I could do this.

Surprises

Mississippi – Most folks have Ole Miss pegged for last in the SEC West, not me. I have their top end talent better than either Mississippi State or Arkansas. Tackles Michael Oher and Jerry Jones are NFL quality. Keys games at home are South Carolina and in-state rival MSU. If they win at Arkansas, no reason they shouldn’t go to minor bowl. Texas transfer QB Jevon Snead must be above average.

Iowa-Talent-wise the Hawkeyes still aren’t great, however are improving. The reason why I see 8-4 season ahead is schedule that sets up nicely. Iowa has to take Iowa State seriously and bury them. No Ohio State or Michigan certainly makes goals more attainable. One upset against Wisconsin or Penn State at Iowa City would be significant and other than Illinois, they should have a chance to win other Big Ten road games.

TCU- I don’t know if this a big surprise necessarily, but I’m crowning TCU Mountain West Conference champs. They are in the mix with BYU and Utah, just not as highly thought of. After two 11-win seasons, injuries and inconsistent play doomed the Horned Frogs last year. With 16 starters and a rededication by all members of the squad, this alphabet school is ready to jump. I’ve got them at 10-2, with only losses at Oklahoma and at Utah.

Others in the mix- Northern Illinois –Wyoming-Louisville

Disappointments

West Virginia- Pat White is one of the most electrifying athletes playing quarterback in the country. This year with Bill Stewart as the coach, differences will appear, though West Virginia will still be a good team. Defensive replacements are needed and November features games at UConn, Louisville and Pittsburgh before hosting South Florida. We’ve seen what happens when White is hurt, just not sold the ‘Teers get in done in 2008.

Illinois- Illini backers were thrilled by going to Pasadena earlier this year, even if they were out-classed by USC. Key losses in personnel from real playmakers mean others have to step up, are they ready? Games away from home include Missouri, Penn State, Michigan, and Wisconsin. On November 15, that team they beat last year, what’s their name, of yea, Ohio State comes to Champaign seeking serious revenge. An 8-4 record is apex, with 7-5 more likely, with improvement coming again next year.

Central Florida-Coach George O’Leary has done a splendid job in turning this sleepy campus dominated by Mickey into C-USA contender annually. O’Leary is a tough Irishman who likes to have his teams play top notch non-conference teams to prepare for conference play. The losses of quarterback Kyle Israel and RB Kevin Smith will slowdown offense. The defense is still among the best in the league, but too many rough roads tilts spells 6-6 campaign.

Others in the mix- Kansas – Connecticut –Kansas State

Baseball Betting Answers for Hump Day

Kendall from the LCC is smokin’ on personal plays and offers a familiar Free Play that looks like a winner. The System plays are hotter than an Arizona car handle sitting outside in August and goes right back to yesterday’s combatants with a different twist. The Top Trend will look like something you have seen before, but has it ever delivered. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON home favorites like the Angels, with a money line of -175 to -250, with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL), after a win by four runs or more. This system is fascinating 22-3, 88 percent the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Trend -2) We’ve used this before, yet it worth bringing out again. Roy Oswalt is 20-1 against Cincinnati lifetime and for good measure, he and Astros teammates are 9-1 the last two August’s.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Kendall is nobody’s fool, he’s on the White Sox again tonight for Free selection. He’s 11-3 on the bases of late, gathering +9.15 units of profit.

Baseball Betting Answers for Tuesday

We know our MLB baseball systems have meant risking heavy chalk, but hard to argue when the odds are so stacked in your favor and they win. Does a 43-4 System grab your attention? Top Trend shows what Arizona has done on the road when a certain pitcher is on the mound. Professional bettor Kendall has been doing a nice job and has Free Play ready to win. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON all favorites like the Angels with a money line of -175 to -250, who are below average hitting team (BA .265 or less), against a good starting pitcher like Greg Smith (6-12, 3.75 ERA) with ERA below 4.20 in the AL, in the second half of the season. This system is jaw-dropping 43-4, 91.5 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Brandon Webb and Arizona is 12-2 when he pitches in road division games.

Free Baseball Selection -3) The Chicago White Sox have caught the attention of Kendall from the Left Coast Connection in MLB action tonight. He’s 9-3 on the bases of late, gathering +7.15 units of profit.

College Football Quick Primer

With college football ready to fire this week, thought I’d share how I see upcoming season playing out. Actually before I start, I’d like to inform everyone I was going to start a paid newsletter for college and pro football, unfortunately everything didn’t come together for a variety of reasons. This should be good news to all of you who visit this blog, since many of the elements I was going to talk about will instead be written about right here at 3Daily Winners.

For example, I have special information I’ve gathered for years and written about from time to time on other websites, this information will now be seen and talked about here.

I’ll share my game insights, from watching everything all weekend and discuss what I see or hear. I’ll provide key numbers about players and teams and tell the truth, not sugar coat what I see or find.

I’ll have various types of other information, that honestly I haven’t seen thought about yet, just will react to the marketplace. My goal is to make this a fun and entertaining place to stop everyday for people that want quality football information. Enough talking let’s get started.

Over the last six weeks, I’ve studied the returning players and losses from the various college football teams. Looked at the schedules inside-out and taken into consideration many other factors too numerous to mention.

Here is my Top 25.

1) Ohio State 2) Oklahoma 3) Florida 4) Georgia 5) USC

6) Missouri 7) Clemson 8) LSU 9) Texas Tech 10) Auburn

11) Wisconsin 12) West Virginia 13) So. Florida 14) Virg. Tech 15) Texas

16) Tennessee 17) Oregon 18) Penn State 19) Kansas 20) Wake Forest

21) Flor. State 22) Ariz. State 23) Alabama 24) Illinois 25) Iowa

Do I think this is the exact order of the best 25 teams in the country, No. Based on factors like scheduling and motivational situations, along with certain coaches in need of big years, this is what I see today.

Next is list of conference champions. By now you either have or should have picked up preseason magazine. I’m not going to compete with those, thus I’ll keep it brief.

ACC – Clemson

Finally Clemson meets expectations in what is a pretty mediocre league.

Big 12- Oklahoma

Second best conference this season, thanks to 11 returning quarterbacks. Highly competitive year, with underdogs covering more often than expected with so many good signal callers.

SEC- Florida
Georgia has better talent, however better schedule for Gators and more balance than last year.

Big Ten- Ohio State

Everyone is playing for second place.

Pac-10 – USC

Down year for this league, even USC isn’t USC to start the season.

Mountain West- TCU

Offense comes back for the Horned Frogs, with always steady defense in place.

WAC- Fresno State
My least secure pick, as Bulldogs are too often preoccupied with non-conference games, instead of focusing on winning league. Did you know Fresno State turned down 10,000 Benjamin Franklin’s to play Wisconsin at Lambeau Field, to keep home game with Badgers?

MAC- Central Michigan
They go for third straight title, but watch out for Ball State.

C-USA - Tulsa
They battle East Carolina for conference title.

Sun Belt – Florida Atlantic
In my study of outstanding players within conferences, FAU has the most players back within any league in the country.


Tomorrow, surprise and disappointing teams. Please share your thoughts in comment sections.

Free Baseball Plays from 3DW

The Toronto bullpen was surprisingly ineffective and cost us 3-0 day in extra innings in losing game and series to Boston. The baseball Systems are cleaning up with recent hot streak and we have an 80 percent system involving Cubs. Another Prefect Trend returns and Slick Rick from the LCC has a West Coast Free play. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON all favorites with money line of -150 or more like the Cubs, with a starting pitcher like Ted Lilly (12-7, 4.25) whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 on the season-NL, with a team batting average of .275 or better on the season (NL). This to be reckoned with system is 48-12, 80 percent, since 2004.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Seattle is 0-11against the money line revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 or more runs this season, losing by an average of 2.8 RPG.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Slick Rick has been just that with 10-2 run in all sports and is on the Giants to roast the Rockies.

Free Plays from 3Daily Winners

An unproductive 1-2-1 day broke our string of three winning days at 3Daily Winners, thus we look to start another streak today. The System plays are back to being on fire and we have a 90 percent one on tap. The always popular perfect Trend returns and Kendall gets one more chance to earn our trust with his Free Top MLB play. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Pittsburgh with a money line of +150 or more, with a starter like Paul Maholm (8-7, 3.64, 1.232 WHIP) whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season-NL, going against a hot starting pitcher like C.C. Sabathia (3-0, 1.08 ERA L3 outings) with ERA less than 2.50 over his last three starts. While we could never suggest playing a -300 or higher game, hard to argue with results of this system being 18-2 the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Kevin Correia of San Francisco is perfect 10-0 when he and teammates are in the role of favorite in his career.

Free Baseball Selection -3) We are going to cut Kendall some slack as his main play was a push with the Jets yesterday and he is taking Toronto as his best play today.

NFL Preseason Games that Flip-Flop

Often in the NFL preseason, a number of spreads end up far different from original number. For example, a home team starts out as a three-point favorite and gets flipped over to the role of underdog by two points. Why would there be such a huge turnaround of money moving lines for a meaningless exhibition contest?

The most obvious reason is the amount of money being wagered on one side. More of your hardcore bettors take part in preseason action, since they want to start making wagers and test the waters. Generally speaking, these bettors tend to be somewhat more astute and are less inclined to bet just favorites. At the same time, sharps come fully prepared with information, using the internet to follow the daily progress of training camps. Coaches are much more open during this time and useful, true insights are just a few mouse clicks away.

Another factor is figuring determination. As opposed to the regular season, where confusing signals and patterns arise, August football can be pretty cut and dry. If a team is off a dreadful performance, the coaching staff will undoubtedly be unmerciful in riding a team hard in practice. By this time of training camp, the players are tired of the long and often physical workouts, beating their heads against the same players day after day. A bad loss is magnified right now, because with no real games up next, the coaches can micro-manage the smallest details. At this point, the players can sense what the coaches want and will bring full-focused effort into next game, beating opponent and covering the spread. This type of information is easy to read between the lines when a coach will talk about “a good week of practice” after losing the week prior.

It will also go the other way for teams. Take a team that has had a very good camp, the coaches have generally been pleased with effort and progress and have intentionally rode squad hard during the hot summer period. As a quiet reward, the head coach backs of the pedal a touch, going 80 percent instead of full throttle. Possibly the coach wants to use this time to determine final roster cuts and have the club refocus for the start of the regular season. In this scenario, word has leaked out about softer practices and this team might be ripe for the taking after satisfying win, especially if opponent is off a loss.

Injuries of course play a role, as coaches don’t want to risk a dinged up player in a meaningless affair. This is often an area of overreaction, as regulars see little playing time until this week anyway. What can be exposed is lack of depth as various positions, with deeper squads mounting fourth quarter comebacks to amazingly cover spreads of seemingly lost contests.

An old school method that still holds value among bettors is teams off a win by 10 or more points or a loss by double digits. This plays into the motivational aspect of teams, desiring to play better immediately or satisfied with previous effort. Since this way of thinking has been around for years, the results have been steady and bettors will often hone in on these types of contests.

On Saturday, four games fit the criteria of football games that flipped.

The New York Giants went from -1 to +3 at most sportbooks, as they prepare to face cross-locker room rival the Jets. Cincinnati with their wide receiver injuries opened at -2.5 and has been switched to +2.5. In yet another battle in the Sunshine State, those betting football have taken a shine to Jacksonville on the road, moving them from one-point underdogs to three-point favorites. Finally, in a CBS televised contest, Minnesota started at -1.5 and fell to +3 against Pittsburgh with uncertain status of Tarvais Jackson, who suffered a sprained right MCL in last week's 23-15 win over the Baltimore Ravens.

These flip-flops have meant little to bettors overall. Since the beginning of the decade, home favorites turned around to underdogs are 16-15-2 ATS and home dogs spun around to favorites are 11-9-1 ATS. Nothing of consequence shows up this week to play, however keep next week in mind, as home teams flipped from either the favorite or underdog roles are 8-3 ATS the last week of the preseason the last eight years.

Sports Betting Info for Saturday

Yesterday makes it three straight days of 2-1, which is a pretty good average in life when you think about it. Our Top Systems are running hot and have one that is 87.2 percent since the spacecraft Pathfinder landed on Mars (the answer to what year is below). Kendall is killing the oddsmakers in the NFL and has another Free play, along with his best baseball selection. Today’s Top Trend has us visiting the Gateway to the West. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like the Reds, with a money line of +125 to +175, who are a poor hitting team with BA of .250 or less, against a decent starting pitcher like Aaron Cook (15-8, 3.86) in ERA range of 3.70 to 4.20 in the NL, who are batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games. This sweet system is 41-6, 87.2 percent the last 11 seasons.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Atlanta is 2-13 against the money line when playing against a good team (Win percentage of 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season in 2008.

Free Football and Baseball Selections -3) Kendall of the Left Coat Connection nailed the Packers last night as upset winner and also won with Atlanta to raise record to 9-1 in NFL Preseason. Tonight he’s backing the Jets in cross-locker room rivalry. As an added bonus he’s taking the White Sox in baseball as his top play.

Sports Betting Info for Friday

Almost another 3-0 day, with the Angels falling in extra innings for only loss. We are revisiting an unbelievable System that won recently and is now 31-1. Our Top Trend got off the snide and heads north of the border to follow the exploits of the Red Sox. Kendall from the Left Coast Connection is tearing up NFL and has his top Play. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 like San Diego, who are awful hitting club, batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a hot starting pitcher like the Giants Tim Lincecum, who has WHIP under 1.000 over his last five starts. This system is ludicrous also at 31-1 since 2006.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Boston is 1-12 against the money line in games played on artificial turf this season.

Free Football Selection -3) Kendall from the LCC is 7-1 in the NFL Preseason and is unloading on Green Bay catching the points.

Georgia Bulldogs # 1 - No Chance

The college football writer’s poll was released last week with the Georgia Bulldogs ranked the number one team in the land for 2008. There are a plethora of reasons to back the Bulldogs to win the national championship. Head coach Mark Richt’s club returns 17 starters from what was arguably the best team in the country at the end of last season and brings seven game winning streak into this season. Talent wise, the Bulldogs can easily lineup with any team in the country and the case can rather easily be made they are truly better man for man across the board. Then why not enough love for being the top team in the FBS, this is one only Tim Meadows, The Ladies Man from Saturday Night Live might understand.
The Georgia schedule stands out like a shiny new Lexus about to compete at the local demolition derby and others are paying attention also. At many sportbooks, USC is the top betting choice to be national champs (West Coast betting bias) at +350, with Ohio State second at +400 and the Bulldogs and Oklahoma next at +500.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants even chimed in with LVSC Chief Operating Officer Ken White offering up the Bulldogs as number seven, instead of number one. “I can remember in 2005 that everyone thought Tennessee was going to be one of the best teams in the country (#3 AP), they were coming off a 10-3 season and returned 17 starters. The Vols had a monster schedule, playing four ranked opponents on the road and wound up struggling to a 5-6 record,” White said. One difference that should be noted, AP writers thoughts are based on where they believe they believe the teams should start the season, with LVSC rationale being where they should end up to conclude the season.

There is a series of obstacles that await Richt’s bunch and most have to do with the 2008 schedule that has more potential troubles than season four of MTV’s “The Hills”. The listed road games are at South Carolina, Arizona State, LSU, Kentucky and Auburn. Three of these teams are in the preseason Top 25, with the ol’ ball coach Steve Spurrier’s Gamecocks lurking a spot or two just out of range.

South Carolina handed Georgia one of its two losses last season in Athens 16-12, as three-point underdogs. The Gamecocks have their best team since Spurrier arrived in Columbia and he welcomes back 10 starters on defense. Five of the last seven meetings have been decided by six or less points. Georgia is used to playing in the heat and humidity of the South, nonetheless the desert features all kinds of critters and assuredly Dennis Erickson will have his Arizona State team primed for the Dawgs on national television. This affair ends up being sandwiched between South Carolina and Alabama.

After a bye week, the SEC gauntlet begins in earnest. On October 11, Tennessee arrives to play between the hedges. The Vols hammered the Bulldogs 35-14, which ended up being Georgia’s last defeat. Certainly revenge will be on players minds, especially with a week off and they are 12-6-1 ATS with extra week of preparation in the regular season. Vanderbilt is listed as sacrificial lamb for homecoming. Next up, a sojourn to Baton Rouge.

Georgia figures to be favored in Columbia, SC and Tempe, AZ, however based on what we know today, the Dawgs will be dogs at LSU. This is not a bad thing, as smart bettors are attuned to Richt’s teams being expertly prepared on the road, as they are 22-3 SU in true visitor’s role. The Bulldogs are 7-2 ATS as road underdogs and this should be quite a battle. The following week is in Jacksonville, where the world largest bourbon convention convenes this side of Jack Daniels. A dog is a feast for an alligator and Georgia has been just that for Florida with 3-15 (6-11-1 ATS) record the last 18 seasons. Coach Richt went against personality type in this contest a year ago, setting the table for late season run with 42-30 victory. Florida has as much pure talent as Georgia and has revenge in mind after last season.

A natural letdown has to be expected at Kentucky, after two such emotion filled games meaning the possibility exists of having to work harder than expected in Lexington. The last SEC game is on the plains of Alabama in Auburn. The Tigers are always tough at home and will have witnessed in the film room the second half lambasting they received last year at Athens, losing 45-20, as the Bulldogs wore black jersey’s for the first time in what is considered the modern era of the football program.

After another week of richly deserved rest, the final conflict is annual battle with Georgia Tech. Though the Dawgs have had no problems with the Yellow Jackets in winning seven straight (5-1-1 ATS), this will mark first home game in six very strenuous weeks.

Don’t think for a second scheduling doesn’t matter, Tennessee was mentioned from a few seasons ago and a similar thing happened to USC last year, coming up flat and mistake prone in losing at home to Stanford and latter succumbing to Oregon on the road in a loaded Pac-10 in 2007.

The make-up of the roster is different than anticipated already before the first game. Sophomore offensive tackle Trinton Sturdivant is out for the season with a severe injury to his left knee after earning All-SEC raves as a freshman. Senior FB Brannan Southerland is expected to miss up to five games recovering from foot surgery in June. His loss matters, since he was often the lead blocker for talented running back Knowshon Moreno. A few other off-the-field irregularities have led to suspensions that will impact depth and cohesion early in the year.

Despite a wonderfully talented squad with a distinguished head coach, look for Georgia to fall short of projections and drop a couple of contests. The possibility exists they might not even win division if one of the losses is to Florida. Expecting another two-loss team from the SEC to be national champs is just too much to ask. Find another team to wager on, since this one could be dog-gone disappointing to the locals.

Baseball Betting Numbers Change Dramatically

Just like the woman in the infomercial putting her hands together for “The Clapper”, oddsmakers have turned the switch in making dramatic changes in the baseball money lines they are now distributing. These are deep sweeping changes compared to last season, which can have a dramatic impact on how one wagers on baseball. What has happened and why?

Many bettors prefer to stay away from favorites at -150 or higher and will succumb to having to make alterations after the All-Star break as the money lines steadily increase on those in pennant races. Most bettors in the circles I travel will to up to -170 limit, before passing altogether or start wagering on run lines.

Through the first 21 days of August, the source used for opening lines, has seen a gargantuan total of 59 baseball games at -200 or higher. Compare that figure with 29 for the entire month of August in 2007 and you can understand what this year has brought us. Why the big change this season?

Gave professional gambler Sal from the Left Coast Connection a call to see if he could explain what is going on. “Douglas my friend, a number of factors, go into this vexing issue”, Sal said. “One of the biggest factors leading up to this is how general managers shifted their thinking this year. Players like C.C. Sabathia and Rich Harden were moved long before the trade deadline, as were a number of other players. This helped oddsmakers learn sooner about how a player or players would fit into teams and what chemistry issues might arise. For the most part, every acquisition any contending team has made has turned out to be a positive and squares have been betting these teams with regularity. This accounts for the rise in money line numbers so quickly.”

Along Sal’s thought process, teams that would normally fight to stay in pennant races until Labor Day, have hit the eject button on the season extremely early and have made call-ups already this month. Cleveland, after being one game away from World Series last year, bailed faster than a poker player holding a 2 and 4 hole cards in differing suits. Detroit threw in the towel early, not feeling they had a 2007 Colorado Rockies September run in them. Even a Steinbrenner named Hank, all but gave Hillary Clinton concession speech in the last 10 days, in talking about 2009, while the Yankees are still in wild card chase.

How does a baseball bettor combat this onslaught of mammoth numbers? We first talked to Mark Borchgard, chief handicapper at Basewinner.com. “When the numbers get this high (-200 or higher), I like to parlay them, but would only do so if I really liked the game. Just this past Sunday, I matched the Yankees and Minnesota together for an easy parlay winner. It is understood you have to win both games, which has a certain amount of risk, but better to make a one unit play on parlay number than accept the risk of losing at -200 or higher money line, with light payout on a winner.”

Veteran handicapper Mark Lawrence of Playbook.com has a different take to help bettors bust big numbers. “We’re seeing more of the -300 favorites this year than in the past. My philosophy is to make a case for the underdog or don’t chase the large favorites. The same pitcher that is a -300 pitcher today was -200 a month ago. The oddsmakers are compensating for this change in position, by the condition of team the pitcher plays for, by standing in the pennant race.” Mark went on to add, “In playing large underdogs, check the current form of pitchers, the condition of the team they’re playing and if they are not in losing streak and there is nothing wrong with this team (the underdog), consider fading these large favorites and if you do this until season’s end, you should have a chance to show a net profit.”

After talking to Steve Makinen from StatFox about this article, he happened to be talking to Bookmaker.com CEO Mickey Richardson afterwards and asked him about what is occurring this season in this regard to baseball betting lines. Mickey had this to say, ".....no parity this year, it will get worse as the season moves forward, you will start to see games at -400. Books are getting destroyed, as the public is jumping on the bandwagon and riding these favorites."

Sage advise from those who make their living betting and following baseball’s ever changing landscape, as we head down the stretch of the pennant races.

Thursday NFL Notes

In the NFL exhibition season, I’m 3-1 and backing the Bears tonight at minus 3. This is contrary to what has occurred thus far in commish Roger Goodell’s pretend world of letting owner charge full price for these contests. (It’s not Jolly Roger’s fault, many before him let the precedent take hold) Home favorites are 7-23-3 against the spread, with the Over the best Totals play at 20-13.

The unfortunate death of Gene Upshaw is not good news for small market teams like Green Bay, Buffalo and Jacksonville, as rich, greedy owners make take this opportunity to really create labor unrest and abolish salary cap, leaving franchises like this in the dust instead of the larger viewpoint of what is best for the sport.

Baseball Betting Info for Thursday

We got back on the winning track at 3Daily Winners with 2-1 day. We have unearthed another System that is almost inconceivable at 93.1 percent. The perfect Trend returns, following the exploits of Seattle this time. Free Play is from the left Coast Connection in American league action. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON all favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 like Cleveland, who are below average hitting team (BA .265 or less) against a good starting pitcher like Zack Greinke (9-8, 3.92), who owns ERA of 4.20 or less in the AL, in the second half of the season. This money making system is conspicuous 41-3, 93.1 percent since 1997. How does this system work so effectively, maybe having pitchers like Cy Young winner to be Cliff Lee (17-2, 2.43) backing it up.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Seattle is 0-16 after allowing nine or more runs in next encounter.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Though not a one-sided consensus, the Left Coast Connection has seven bettors on the Angels and three on Minnesota. Free Play is officially on the Halos.

Baseball Betting Info for Wednesday

Hope you enjoyed yesterday’s incredible System play and we have one nearly as good today, with an 89.4 winning percentage. Today’s Top trend takes us to the Windy City and we need to break brief losing streak in this area. Also we look to get back on track with our Free selections and have consensus play loaded. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Oakland, with a money line of +175 to +250, after allowing 10 runs or more against opponent after a combined score of 15 runs or more. This system is sizzling 34-4, 89.4 percent the last three years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Chicago Cubs have won 18 of last 22 night games at Wrigley Field.

Free Baseball Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection actually had two games where everybody was on one side. The first one won't count with six guys on Milwaukee in afternoon action, tonight seven players will be on Matt Cain and the Giants as official Free selection at 3Daily Winners.

Free Tuesday Baseball Selections at 3DW

Honestly disappointed with 1-2 day and have uncovered a superb System that will take your breath away with its phenomenal record. Milwaukee is in outstanding spot for today’s Top Trend and Free Play has one of the Left Coast Connection bettors playing a money line parlay. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like Oakland, with a money line of +175 to +250, who are batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher like the Twins Kevin Slowey, who has WHIP 1.000 or less over his last five starts. Drum roll please, this system is 30-1 since 2006. WOW!

Free Baseball Trend -2) Milwaukee is 15-1 against the money line in home games with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) With so many huge numbers today, one member from the LCC makes sense in playing the Brewers and Cardinals in money line parlay.