For the Early Line Moves, we seek out the earliest lines and compare them on late Tuesday nights numbers to see what the so-called Line Movers do. By and large their track record is solid and dependable. Last week in college football, they were below average 2-3 on sides and 3-4 in college totals. This makes season record 21-12-1, 63.6 percent on sides and 11-9, 55 percent on Totals in CFB. In the NFL, they were 1-1 on sides bringing record to 7-3 on sides and 2-2 on Totals. Enjoy reading and closely follow these numbers for wagering portfolio.
College Sides
USC -21.5 to -24 Loss
Ohio State –17 to -19.5
Wisconsin -3 to -6
Fresno State -3.5 to -7
San Diego State -9 to -12
Toledo -17 to -20
College Totals
SMU/Tulane 48 to 51 Winner
NIU/EMU 57 to 54
Hou/ ECU 56 to 60.5
Tenn/Auburn 36.5 to 40
BG/ Wyoming 41 to 43.5
Illini/Penn St. 59.5 to 56
No. Tex/Rice 65 to 69.5
W. Mich/Temple 51 to 47
NFL Sides
Pittsburgh -7 to -5
NFL Totals
Cle/Cin 42 to 44.5
Hou/Jack 39 to 42
SF/NO 51 to 48.5
Phil/Chic 43 to 40.5
Five Big College Football Wagering Looks
Conference action starts to pick up in earnest this weekend and hold onto your wallet after what Oregon State did to soon to be former number one USC. Normally we have a couple of crazy, upset-filled weekends, will this be the start? Georgia and Alabama will have prime-time telecast in what is the featured game of the day. Also in the SEC, Tennessee and Auburn will try to avoid a second straight conference loss. The Big 10 has two important tilts, with Wisconsin a favorite at the Big House, despite one win in 42 years there and Penn State playing upset-minded Illinois. Oklahoma has the most to gain on Saturday, rising to top spot in the polls with quality win over pesky TCU. Click to read more.
College Football Saturday Wagering Info
Have a feeling today is going to be a great day for you and for us here at 3Daily Winners. Our Top System is an old Southwest Conference tilt that is a make-up game from two weeks ago, with a 23-4 ATS record. Sal from the LCC is back and his best play on the CFB board is Free. The Top Trend features a team in revenge mode and is in perfect 10-0 spot. Good Luck.
Free Football System-1) PLAY ON home favorites of 21.5 or more points like Texas, who are excellent rushing team averaging 4.8 YPR or more, against a team with a terrible rushing defense like Arkansas, who allow 4.8 YPR or more in non-conference games. This sweet system is 23-4, 85.2 percent against the spread.
Free Football Trend -2) Oklahoma State is 10-0 ATS after scoring 50 points or more in their last game.
Free Football Selection -3) Sal from the Left Coast Connection is 7-2-1 in college football the last two weeks and says take Michigan with the points today.
Free Football System-1) PLAY ON home favorites of 21.5 or more points like Texas, who are excellent rushing team averaging 4.8 YPR or more, against a team with a terrible rushing defense like Arkansas, who allow 4.8 YPR or more in non-conference games. This sweet system is 23-4, 85.2 percent against the spread.
Free Football Trend -2) Oklahoma State is 10-0 ATS after scoring 50 points or more in their last game.
Free Football Selection -3) Sal from the Left Coast Connection is 7-2-1 in college football the last two weeks and says take Michigan with the points today.
3Daily Winners Free Plays for September 26
Great job by the LLC yesterday, as all three games they gave us were Winners, though none were official by our standards. Our Top Trend looked like a sure winner until the White Sox coughed up another fur ball and lost. We have found a baseball system of note for Friday and it has been a long term winner at 81.2 percent. Though yesterday perfect trend was a loser, we have another in college football tonight. If you would prefer to have this information sent right to you instead of seeking it out, sign up on Free Mailing List to your right. Every article is sent to your email address and no your name goes no further than here. Plus you will receiver my personal plays for Free. (That’s not a big deal at the moment however) Good Luck.
Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON all favorites with a money line of -150 or more like the White Sox, who have team batting average .265 or less against a good starting pitcher like the Indians Scott Lewis (ERA of 4.20 or less in AL), in the second half of the season. In the last 11 years, this system is 82-19, 81.2 percent.
Free Football Trend -2) Louisville is 8-0 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last three seasons.
Free Selection -3) No Plays for Friday.
Record Update- Since we started this blog, this is official records.
Top System Plays – 64-33 65.9 percent
Top Trend Plays – 54-48 52.9 percent
Top Free Plays – 60-43 58.2 percent
I receive the list everyday of the Left Coast Connection’s Consensus plays and their best plays are 123-70 60.5 percent.
NEW Feature – We realize not everyone has access to computer all day. We are introducing 3Daily Winners by phone. Call 480.205.9388 and listen to Free System, Top Trend and Free Pick each day, available today after 5 Eastern.
Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON all favorites with a money line of -150 or more like the White Sox, who have team batting average .265 or less against a good starting pitcher like the Indians Scott Lewis (ERA of 4.20 or less in AL), in the second half of the season. In the last 11 years, this system is 82-19, 81.2 percent.
Free Football Trend -2) Louisville is 8-0 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last three seasons.
Free Selection -3) No Plays for Friday.
Record Update- Since we started this blog, this is official records.
Top System Plays – 64-33 65.9 percent
Top Trend Plays – 54-48 52.9 percent
Top Free Plays – 60-43 58.2 percent
I receive the list everyday of the Left Coast Connection’s Consensus plays and their best plays are 123-70 60.5 percent.
NEW Feature – We realize not everyone has access to computer all day. We are introducing 3Daily Winners by phone. Call 480.205.9388 and listen to Free System, Top Trend and Free Pick each day, available today after 5 Eastern.
Top Shelf Sports Betting Info from 3Daily Winners
A 1-1 day as the St. Louis Cardinals did their best to put Arizona out of their misery with yesterday Top Trend. We have awesome angle that has not lost going this evening in the Twin Cities. We offer a unique System for those not used to wagering on NFL halftimes, trust us, its worth a gander with 25-5 record. Good Luck.
Free Football System-1) No great baseball systems again today. Instead we have a different system for us, but is the type of information professional bettors use, like those from the Left Coast Connection. PLAY ON Home favorites vs. the first half line, off a road win against a division rival against opponent off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival. This superb system is 25-5, 83.3 percent and suggests looking at Jacksonville this Sunday.
Free Baseball Trend -2) When Gavin Floyd is the starting pitcher for the Chicago White Sox after two or more losses in a row, the Pale Hose are 9-0 in 2008.
Free Selection -3) The vast majority of the LCC members prefer Minnesota and San Diego tonight on the bases and Oregon State on the gridiron. None of these will count as official plays.
Free Football System-1) No great baseball systems again today. Instead we have a different system for us, but is the type of information professional bettors use, like those from the Left Coast Connection. PLAY ON Home favorites vs. the first half line, off a road win against a division rival against opponent off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival. This superb system is 25-5, 83.3 percent and suggests looking at Jacksonville this Sunday.
Free Baseball Trend -2) When Gavin Floyd is the starting pitcher for the Chicago White Sox after two or more losses in a row, the Pale Hose are 9-0 in 2008.
Free Selection -3) The vast majority of the LCC members prefer Minnesota and San Diego tonight on the bases and Oregon State on the gridiron. None of these will count as official plays.
Betting Weekday College Football
College football on Thursday night’s has become part of the fabric of television viewing for fans and bettors alike. It’s an outstanding way to start off a hectic sports wagering weekend, with mostly just a one game to focus on. Over the years the lineup has changed, starting with Western Athletic Conference, Mountain West and Conference USA teams, to now SEC, ACC and even Pac-10 squads are now viewed moreregularly.For fans attending these games, it’s a nice way to break up the week and for college students at the game, it’s just one more excuse to get into the adult beverage department to be primed for an evening football game. ESPN has always supported these events by sending an excellent announcing team, lending further street cred to the importance of the contest.
A database we use goes back to 1992 college football, thus we thought we would dig up numbers to see what has happened on Thursday nights in betting college football. When the process started, the thought occurred to include other week nights, more specifically Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday nights. Since ESPN has widened the window of days that college football can be seen, it made sense to at least investigate what might be out there.
At is the case in any of our studies; we set up parameters to simplify matters. For example, Thursday games only include those that were on major networks. This eliminated several games from the first week of the season, when eight to 12 encounters were to be played, yet only a couple was actually televised. Games that appeared on ESPNU and other similar networks were not included, though we did include the Mountain West games that have started to dot the Thursday lineup, as these teams used to be on the docket and the conference is certainly legitimate.
On the other days of the week the same rules applied, nationally televised games was a prerequisite, thus that took off MAC and Sun Belt games that were shown either in local markets or regional based cable outlets. We did include all televised contests from the day after Thanksgiving in our work. Once again for the sake of simplicity, we eliminated all games in which a “Push” was involved, thus if the numbers don’t exactly jive, that would be the reason.
We decided to break up Thursday into two segments, 1992-1999 and 2000 to present. Don’t worry about why, we just did it that way because it seemed like the thing to do.
Thursday Night College Football Records 1992-1999
Home Favorites 30-11 SU
Home Favorites 23-17 ATS
Home Underdogs 13-32 SU
Home Underdogs 23-22 ATS
Totals –Over -32
Total- Under -54
Home favorites were a very steady winner as expected, winning outright 73.1 percent of the time. With a big enthusiastic home crowd and the players pumped up to be the focus of a national cable audience, this was and continues to be a big deal, being the only football game on television. It is interesting to note, a 57.5 percent spread cover percentage is quite good for these teams. The home underdog straight up record though accurate, is somewhat misleading. Why you ask, ESPN will often times try to set up games with more well-known schools on the road, setting up the potential upset or quality game. If a team is significantly better, they should win on the road, yet as the spread record shows, home underdogs have held their own. We did notice that majority of covers by home dogs came when they were catching eight more points. Smaller spreads saw the visitor covering just over 57 percent of the time.
It’s impossible not to notice the wide differential in the total, with the Under being the play 62.7 percent of the time. The best theory is many of these games involved the smaller conferences known for high scoring games. The oddsmaker placed too much value in the public supporting this idea and raised the numbers above typical parameters. The players having additional motivation were more keyed up for defensive effort, thus leading to lower scores, again one possible explanation.
Thursday Night College Football Records 2000- to present
Home Favorites 62-13 SU
Home Favorites- 42-32 ATS
Home Underdogs 23-27 SU
Home Underdogs 29-20 ATS
Totals –Over -61
Total- Under -64
What jumps off the page is the winning percentage of home favorites, 82.6 percent. What was even more remarkable, six of the losses have been since 2006, meaning the winning percentage was much higher. Despite the difference, the spread record of the home favorite remained about the same at just under 57 percent. Home underdogs had far greater success covering the lines at 59.1 percent and won outright 46 percent of the time, up over 17 percent from previous years. The oddsmakers got a better handle on the Totals and they were virtually even.
Friday College Football Records 1992- to present
Home Favorites 67-21 SU
Home Favorites 41-47 ATS
Home Underdogs 16-37 SU
Home Underdogs 26-27 ATS
This is a difficult day to gauge results because of how the games setup. Most regular ESPN Friday night games have involved non-conference games, where teams no little about each other. Later in the season, we do have conference matchups from the WAC, MAC and C-USA delivering a variety of results. Then the aforementioned Thanksgiving Friday is completely about rivalries and we all know anything goes with those heated affairs. The easiest aspect to understand this is not an easy day to find value looking any particular way.
Tuesday and Wednesday are relative newcomers to the wagering landscape and don’t think for a minute the World Wide Leader in Sports doesn’t know that bettors will watch almost anything when it comes to football. Tuesday did not yield anything in terms of being useful with home favorites 8-7 and 6-9 ATS and home underdogs 5-3-1 against the spread, winning only twice in nine tries.
Wednesday has one area that will be worth considering this college football campaign. Over the last several seasons, home favorites have won 12 of 17 games played and covered a strong percentage of the time at 11-5-1 ATS, a 62.5 percent clip. A very nice play for a little Hump Day action.
In summation, Thursday home favorites are tremendous on the money line if you can take a few losses and are running a hair over 57 percent winners since 1992. Home underdogs have shown an inclination to be a good wager this decade and Wednesday night home favorites do deliver almost as good as Dominoes.
Hump Day Sports Betting Info
Speaking for myself, I don’t know how people bet baseball late in the season. I give up once football starts, with all normal reasoning going out the window late in the year. What saddens me is after a great run all year at 3Daily Winners; our three focal points have taken a hit this month, mostly due to baseball. I appreciate you readers sticking with us as we try to also deliver articles that hold value to you. After 0-2 Tuesday, we have found a perfect Trend for consumption in the city with the big Arch. Once again no baseball systems that are worthy of our standards, however a simple “makes sense” college football Total Systems for Saturday that is 27-5. Good Luck.
Free Football System-1) No great baseball systems again today, thus high quality system on the Total side for college football on Saturday. PLAY UNDER on any team against the total after a game where they forced three or more turnovers against opponent after two consecutive games where they committed four or more turnovers. One contest fits this system that is 27-5, 84.4 percent. It’s a Pac-10 matchup between Washington State and Oregon.
Free Baseball Trend -2) Adam Wainwright and St. Louis are 12-0 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
Free Baseball Selection -3) Those still betting baseball from the Left Coast Connection are solidly behind Toronto Blue Jays.
Free Football System-1) No great baseball systems again today, thus high quality system on the Total side for college football on Saturday. PLAY UNDER on any team against the total after a game where they forced three or more turnovers against opponent after two consecutive games where they committed four or more turnovers. One contest fits this system that is 27-5, 84.4 percent. It’s a Pac-10 matchup between Washington State and Oregon.
Free Baseball Trend -2) Adam Wainwright and St. Louis are 12-0 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
Free Baseball Selection -3) Those still betting baseball from the Left Coast Connection are solidly behind Toronto Blue Jays.
Free Sports Action from 3Daily Winners
An official .500 day, as Oakland’s Greg Smith’s astonishing run of pitching Under continued last night. The Jets were grounded by offensive mistakes and surprisingly bad defense. Today, no baseball system worthy to be shown here, thus we substituted very good NFL System this has won last 11 times straight. Will the Phillies win tonight to further close the door on the Mets, review today’s Top Trend for winning information. Slick Rick from the LCC is more than holding his own in MLB action and offers his Best Bet for Free. Good Luck.
Free Football System-1) No great baseball systems today, thus file this one away for later this week, watching the line. PLAY AGAINST favorites of 10.5 or more points like Dallas, who is excellent offensive team averaging 5.8 yards per play or more, against a team with an average defense like Washington, who allows 4.9 to 5.4 YPP. The average line on games like this has been over 13 points a game, with the final score differential being 6.9. This system is 25-6 ATS, 80.6 percent and has won 11 times in a row.
Free Baseball Trend -2) The Philadelphia Phillies are trying to wrap up another NL East title and are 14-2 against Atlanta this season.
Free Baseball Selection -3) Slick Rick is a baseball betting diehard and has hit 12 of his last 17 plays and believes the Giants with Tim Lincecum is the best MLB play on the board.
NEW Feature – We realize not everyone has access to computer all day. We are introducing 3Daily Winners by phone. Call 480.205.9388 and listen to Free System, Top Trend and Free Pick each day, available today after 5 Eastern.
Free Football System-1) No great baseball systems today, thus file this one away for later this week, watching the line. PLAY AGAINST favorites of 10.5 or more points like Dallas, who is excellent offensive team averaging 5.8 yards per play or more, against a team with an average defense like Washington, who allows 4.9 to 5.4 YPP. The average line on games like this has been over 13 points a game, with the final score differential being 6.9. This system is 25-6 ATS, 80.6 percent and has won 11 times in a row.
Free Baseball Trend -2) The Philadelphia Phillies are trying to wrap up another NL East title and are 14-2 against Atlanta this season.
Free Baseball Selection -3) Slick Rick is a baseball betting diehard and has hit 12 of his last 17 plays and believes the Giants with Tim Lincecum is the best MLB play on the board.
NEW Feature – We realize not everyone has access to computer all day. We are introducing 3Daily Winners by phone. Call 480.205.9388 and listen to Free System, Top Trend and Free Pick each day, available today after 5 Eastern.
Looking ahead in Rearview Mirror in Betting Football
In the NFL, we have seen more Over’s to date with 28-18-1 record. The explanation is rather simple why these numbers have gone this way to date. Atlanta and San Francisco are in the top 10 in the NFL in scoring and the Broncos, Texans and Chargers defense have all been below expectations, leading to more numbers going Over this September. Home underdogs continue to suffer after three weeks with 3-8 ATS record.You can’t help but be impressed by the numbers those setting the lines come up with. In college football, for the season, when looking at the Totals of all games played, the numbers read 88-82-3 Under on the year. Their ability to devise numbers that split action is incredible. Now it is true, how the money is dispersed varies widely and those taking bets could be up or down, it’s just the matter of how they arrive at the numbers to be so accurate. After the favorites started 25-16 ATS in week one, since then they are 62-66-4 against the numbers.
Do’s
When Nick Saban left the NFL to return to college coaching, he preached patience in trying to restore Alabama to greatness. In just his second season in Tuscaloosa, Saban has this program already in the Top 10 and will have a legitimate shot at winning the SEC West. Already they’ve dismantled Clemson, did away with Arkansas faster than Bobby Petrino leaving the NFL, in a place where they have often struggled. Starting this week, the Tide is at Georgia and still has to make trips to Tennessee and LSU, thus anointing Alabama as the chosen team might be getting ahead of schedule. Nonetheless, if I’m Auburn or LSU, I would make sure I win the SEC West this season, as the near future doesn’t appear nearly as encouraging to do so.
There are football factories and than there is Vanderbilt. For years, this university has billed itself, and rightfully so, the Harvard of the South for their academic standards. Football, thou important from just being associated with the SEC, is not an end all to be all on the Nashville campus. Having a representative program, a winning record now and again, are all worthy goals. The Commodores have not been to a bowl game since 1982 and were poised to do so last year sitting at 5-3, only to lose last four games of the season. With the fewest number of returning players (9) in the SEC, most believed a return to 3-9 or 4-8 was inevitable. Yet, like the U.S.A. Ryder Cup team, coach Bobby Johnson got the troops to believe and they stand at 4-0 SU and ATS, with three outright underdog upsets. With a bye week before hosting Auburn, who will be off LSU and Tennessee, the bowl light at the end of the tunnel is burning brightly for Vandy.
The Mountain West Conference has as many teams in the Top 25 as the ACC and the Big East combined. BYU was presumed to be a real contender in the conference, with explosive offense led by quarterback Max Hall. This has proven to be true, being in the Top 15 in the country in scoring and total offense. Nonetheless, the defense is what grabs your attention as autumn begins, with consecutive shutouts. Utah brought back a truckload of talent and remains unbeaten and will have national audience to show what they have on Thursday Oct. 9 versus an average Oregon State club. We talked about TCU and we will learn more about them this week playing #2 Oklahoma in Norman.
Don’ts
So much for program revitalizations at Notre Dame and Florida State. The Irish went thru the ringer, in this case, Javon Ringer of Michigan State, who ran the ball an amazing 39 times for 201 yards. Remember the new and improved offensive live Notre Dame was supposed to have, having added experience and strength. Does 112th in rushing and 108th in total offense, really sound that much different than last year’s disaster? Florida State chewed up a couple of cream puffs and was supposedly ready to make amends against Wake Forest who embarrassed them 30-0 two years ago in Tallahassee. After seven turnovers, the Seminoles look as disorganized as ever. The wagering money will come much easier betting against these two former legendary football programs, than with them.
How does third place in the Big Ten sound? If you’re Northwestern or Minnesota, they would take that position right now and send “thank you” notes later. But Ohio State! The Ohio U game was written off as look-ahead for USC. The Buckeyes were bedazzled by the Trojans and never threatened covering against Troy at Columbus, winning 28-10 as three-touchdown favorites. Ohio State might get their act together in the coming weeks in Big 10 play, however it is impossible to discount three crummy performances in a row. By the eyeball test, Penn State and Wisconsin look better. Ohio State will play both in October, with questions answered about how good this Jim Tressel team really is.
NFL Betting Thoughts
Three home favorites were favored by 10 or more points by game time and two were lucky to survive, with the other losing for the first time in awhile. All the rage in the NFL is this is a quarterback’s league. For the most part, this is fairly accurate, because if a team has a bad signal caller, it is very difficult to win. What we learned in Miami’s upset of New England; maybe the Patriots defense won’t be able to carry the offense. The Dolphins Ronnie Brown ran unscathed, through, around and past New England defenders like statues. The older yet presumably wiser Patriots defenders were helpless and with no Tom Brady to bail them out, the outcome was decided early. Peyton Manning did this for a good part of his early career and might have to do it again this season. A quarterback with enough weapons can manufacture enough points and possess the ball to help the defense. When he is removed, a weaker defense can be exposed.
Though not given the same importance as Hurricane Katrina, Hurricane Ike has left its mark on the Houston Texans. Many quotes throughout the past week gave a strong impression, many of the players were still thinking about what happened to their homes and would not be ready to play football. It was evident; focus was an issue against Tennessee, in 31-12 loss. With hope brimming after first .500 season a year ago, Houston will be playing third consecutive road game this week at Jacksonville, before heading home for what will now be four straight home games. The Texans will have to go old school in playing last 15 games without a bye week.
Does coaching matter, you bet. Though it didn’t matter in the outcome of spread wager, underdog money line players were affected. Lane Kiffin of Oakland is a dead man walking; ready to be fired at any moment, if he would agree to quick financial settlement for crazed old man Al Davis, who has ruined this franchise believing he is the same as was 20 years ago. Still you have to question Kiffin’s judgment in not calling a timeout in the final minute, with his team leading 23-21. The chances of Rian Lindell missing a 38-yard field goal were small, yet why not freeze him? Or what about a kickoff return or Hail Mary pass after the made kick? We see it happen all the time. The chances of either are small, but as Jim Carrey said in the movie Dumb and Dumber, “…so I still gotta a chance.”
Media and other thoughts –This is like shooting fish in a barrel, but Bob Griese said this in describing replay. “I’m not sure there is enough visual “everdence” to over rule the call.” Instead of correcting himself, a few awkward seconds went by before partner Paul Maguire chimed in, “Easy for you to say!” It was classic.
ESPN’s Jesse Palmer does a very solid job both on Thursday night games and Saturday’s wherever he shows up. For football types that want real information, he does a great job with the X’s and O’s.
It was rather obvious the Dallas Cowboys are a few rungs up the ladder ahead of the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. I spoke to several people that were at the game and all saw the same thing, the Packers defense is a well-deserved 27th in total defense, after giving up lots of yards to both Minnesota and Detroit in previous games. It was also shown despite the pleasant surprise Aaron Rodgers has been, he looked much better when matched up against Vikings and Lions quarterbacks than Tony Romo. Right today the Packers are the fourth or fifth best team in the NFC.
It often takes time to learn how to win, especially if a team is not used to doing so. Over the weekend North Carolina, went from a Pick to favorite against Virginia Tech, playing at Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels are improving under Butch Davis, but not there yet. After outplaying the ordinary Hokies the first two/thirds of the game, they made mistakes on offense and defense and eventually lost the game 20-17. It takes time to erode those old feelings of losing. Florida State and Tennessee were teams in similar situations, with a different angle. These outstanding programs in recent years still win, just not with the regularity of previous years. In big game situations, versus more confident opponents, they find ways to screw-up.
When Nick Saban left the NFL to return to college coaching, he preached patience in trying to restore Alabama to greatness. In just his second season in Tuscaloosa, Saban has this program already in the Top 10 and will have a legitimate shot at winning the SEC West. Already they’ve dismantled Clemson, did away with Arkansas faster than Bobby Petrino leaving the NFL, in a place where they have often struggled. Starting this week, the Tide is at Georgia and still has to make trips to Tennessee and LSU, thus anointing Alabama as the chosen team might be getting ahead of schedule. Nonetheless, if I’m Auburn or LSU, I would make sure I win the SEC West this season, as the near future doesn’t appear nearly as encouraging to do so.
There are football factories and than there is Vanderbilt. For years, this university has billed itself, and rightfully so, the Harvard of the South for their academic standards. Football, thou important from just being associated with the SEC, is not an end all to be all on the Nashville campus. Having a representative program, a winning record now and again, are all worthy goals. The Commodores have not been to a bowl game since 1982 and were poised to do so last year sitting at 5-3, only to lose last four games of the season. With the fewest number of returning players (9) in the SEC, most believed a return to 3-9 or 4-8 was inevitable. Yet, like the U.S.A. Ryder Cup team, coach Bobby Johnson got the troops to believe and they stand at 4-0 SU and ATS, with three outright underdog upsets. With a bye week before hosting Auburn, who will be off LSU and Tennessee, the bowl light at the end of the tunnel is burning brightly for Vandy.
The Mountain West Conference has as many teams in the Top 25 as the ACC and the Big East combined. BYU was presumed to be a real contender in the conference, with explosive offense led by quarterback Max Hall. This has proven to be true, being in the Top 15 in the country in scoring and total offense. Nonetheless, the defense is what grabs your attention as autumn begins, with consecutive shutouts. Utah brought back a truckload of talent and remains unbeaten and will have national audience to show what they have on Thursday Oct. 9 versus an average Oregon State club. We talked about TCU and we will learn more about them this week playing #2 Oklahoma in Norman.
Don’ts
So much for program revitalizations at Notre Dame and Florida State. The Irish went thru the ringer, in this case, Javon Ringer of Michigan State, who ran the ball an amazing 39 times for 201 yards. Remember the new and improved offensive live Notre Dame was supposed to have, having added experience and strength. Does 112th in rushing and 108th in total offense, really sound that much different than last year’s disaster? Florida State chewed up a couple of cream puffs and was supposedly ready to make amends against Wake Forest who embarrassed them 30-0 two years ago in Tallahassee. After seven turnovers, the Seminoles look as disorganized as ever. The wagering money will come much easier betting against these two former legendary football programs, than with them.
How does third place in the Big Ten sound? If you’re Northwestern or Minnesota, they would take that position right now and send “thank you” notes later. But Ohio State! The Ohio U game was written off as look-ahead for USC. The Buckeyes were bedazzled by the Trojans and never threatened covering against Troy at Columbus, winning 28-10 as three-touchdown favorites. Ohio State might get their act together in the coming weeks in Big 10 play, however it is impossible to discount three crummy performances in a row. By the eyeball test, Penn State and Wisconsin look better. Ohio State will play both in October, with questions answered about how good this Jim Tressel team really is.
NFL Betting Thoughts
Three home favorites were favored by 10 or more points by game time and two were lucky to survive, with the other losing for the first time in awhile. All the rage in the NFL is this is a quarterback’s league. For the most part, this is fairly accurate, because if a team has a bad signal caller, it is very difficult to win. What we learned in Miami’s upset of New England; maybe the Patriots defense won’t be able to carry the offense. The Dolphins Ronnie Brown ran unscathed, through, around and past New England defenders like statues. The older yet presumably wiser Patriots defenders were helpless and with no Tom Brady to bail them out, the outcome was decided early. Peyton Manning did this for a good part of his early career and might have to do it again this season. A quarterback with enough weapons can manufacture enough points and possess the ball to help the defense. When he is removed, a weaker defense can be exposed.
Though not given the same importance as Hurricane Katrina, Hurricane Ike has left its mark on the Houston Texans. Many quotes throughout the past week gave a strong impression, many of the players were still thinking about what happened to their homes and would not be ready to play football. It was evident; focus was an issue against Tennessee, in 31-12 loss. With hope brimming after first .500 season a year ago, Houston will be playing third consecutive road game this week at Jacksonville, before heading home for what will now be four straight home games. The Texans will have to go old school in playing last 15 games without a bye week.
Does coaching matter, you bet. Though it didn’t matter in the outcome of spread wager, underdog money line players were affected. Lane Kiffin of Oakland is a dead man walking; ready to be fired at any moment, if he would agree to quick financial settlement for crazed old man Al Davis, who has ruined this franchise believing he is the same as was 20 years ago. Still you have to question Kiffin’s judgment in not calling a timeout in the final minute, with his team leading 23-21. The chances of Rian Lindell missing a 38-yard field goal were small, yet why not freeze him? Or what about a kickoff return or Hail Mary pass after the made kick? We see it happen all the time. The chances of either are small, but as Jim Carrey said in the movie Dumb and Dumber, “…so I still gotta a chance.”
Media and other thoughts –This is like shooting fish in a barrel, but Bob Griese said this in describing replay. “I’m not sure there is enough visual “everdence” to over rule the call.” Instead of correcting himself, a few awkward seconds went by before partner Paul Maguire chimed in, “Easy for you to say!” It was classic.
ESPN’s Jesse Palmer does a very solid job both on Thursday night games and Saturday’s wherever he shows up. For football types that want real information, he does a great job with the X’s and O’s.
It was rather obvious the Dallas Cowboys are a few rungs up the ladder ahead of the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. I spoke to several people that were at the game and all saw the same thing, the Packers defense is a well-deserved 27th in total defense, after giving up lots of yards to both Minnesota and Detroit in previous games. It was also shown despite the pleasant surprise Aaron Rodgers has been, he looked much better when matched up against Vikings and Lions quarterbacks than Tony Romo. Right today the Packers are the fourth or fifth best team in the NFC.
It often takes time to learn how to win, especially if a team is not used to doing so. Over the weekend North Carolina, went from a Pick to favorite against Virginia Tech, playing at Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels are improving under Butch Davis, but not there yet. After outplaying the ordinary Hokies the first two/thirds of the game, they made mistakes on offense and defense and eventually lost the game 20-17. It takes time to erode those old feelings of losing. Florida State and Tennessee were teams in similar situations, with a different angle. These outstanding programs in recent years still win, just not with the regularity of previous years. In big game situations, versus more confident opponents, they find ways to screw-up.
First Day of Fall Sports Plays
3Daily Winners delivered a 2-1 day in the NFL as Kendall gave us Tennessee and has additional winners on Philadelphia and Washington, raising his record to 11-2. Our Top Trend was a winner as well, and we have dandy of an angle lined for today in the big leagues. Though the System was a loser, we’ll come back with a stronger system on tonight’s Monday Night Football game that is 24-4 against the spread. It was a rough weekend at 3Daily Winners. Most of the bettors from the Left Coast Connection had bad days, with exception of Kendall and a few others. Paul Buck struggled and out Systems and Consensus plays were not good. I personally got hammered with 2-7 weekend, yet understand these things happen, no matter how bad I feel for handing these picks out for the mailing list customers. Believe everybody will work extra hard to bounce back next week. Good Luck.
Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST home favorites like San Diego after one or more consecutive losses, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with six or more wins in last eight games. This system is a beauty at 24-4, 85.7 percent.
Free Baseball Trend -2) Greg Smith and the Oakland A’s are 17-0 UNDER playing under the lights in 2008.
Free Selection -3) This will not be an official play, since action is very divided today. 60 percent of those betting the Monday night game from the Left Coast Connection are on the Jets tonight.
NEW Feature – We realize not everyone has access to computer all day. We are introducing 3Daily Winners by phone. Call 480.205.9388 and listen to Free System, Top Trend and Free Pick each day, available today after 5:30 Eastern.
Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST home favorites like San Diego after one or more consecutive losses, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with six or more wins in last eight games. This system is a beauty at 24-4, 85.7 percent.
Free Baseball Trend -2) Greg Smith and the Oakland A’s are 17-0 UNDER playing under the lights in 2008.
Free Selection -3) This will not be an official play, since action is very divided today. 60 percent of those betting the Monday night game from the Left Coast Connection are on the Jets tonight.
NEW Feature – We realize not everyone has access to computer all day. We are introducing 3Daily Winners by phone. Call 480.205.9388 and listen to Free System, Top Trend and Free Pick each day, available today after 5:30 Eastern.
NFL Triple Play Ready for Action
Not a good day for 3Daily Winners at 1-2 but compared to how many of our friends did, feel lucky it wasn’t worse. We have a potential upset brewing with today’s Top System, which is 25-6 ATS. Yesterday’s Top Trend was a winner and we have an sharp angle in the Keystone State matchup. Kendall has been the best in the NFL thus far and shares his best bet with us. Good Luck.
Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST home teams like Baltimore had a completion percentage of 60% or better, after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards an attempt in last game. This system delivers winners at an 80.6 percent clip with 25-6 record.
Free Football Trend -2) The Pittsburgh Steelers have not covered the spread in last six tries after winning an away game straight up.
Free Football Selection -3) Kendall is the hottest bettor in the NFL from the Left Coast Connection with 8-2 mark and is on Tennessee to triumph today.
Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST home teams like Baltimore had a completion percentage of 60% or better, after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards an attempt in last game. This system delivers winners at an 80.6 percent clip with 25-6 record.
Free Football Trend -2) The Pittsburgh Steelers have not covered the spread in last six tries after winning an away game straight up.
Free Football Selection -3) Kendall is the hottest bettor in the NFL from the Left Coast Connection with 8-2 mark and is on Tennessee to triumph today.
Early Line Moves
A couple weeks ago we introduced Early Line Moves. We seek out the earliest lines and compare them on late Tuesday nights to see what the so-called Line Movers do who bet football. By and large their track record is solid and dependable. Last week in college football, they were ordinary 4-4 on sides and sharp 3-0 in college totals. This makes season record 19-9-1, 67.8 percent on sides and 8-5, 61.5 percent on Totals in CFB. In the NFL, they were perfect 4-0 on sides and 0-1 in Totals, bring record to 6-2 on sides and 2-2 on Totals. Enjoy reading and closely follow these numbers for wagering portfolio.
College Sides
Mississipp1 -4.5 to -7
North Carolina –Pick to -2.5
Oregon -13 to -10
Akron -7 to -10
Missouri -31 to -34
College Totals
Ohio/Northw. 48 to 51
Miami-O/Cincy 50 to 47
Navy/ Rutgers 58 to 60.5
WF/FSU 51 to 48
CMU/ Purdue 60 to 64
Idaho/Utah St. 67 to 63
NM St/UTEP 53 to 58.5
NFL Sides
Tennessee -6.5 to -4.5
San Diego -7.5 to -9
College Sides
Mississipp1 -4.5 to -7
North Carolina –Pick to -2.5
Oregon -13 to -10
Akron -7 to -10
Missouri -31 to -34
College Totals
Ohio/Northw. 48 to 51
Miami-O/Cincy 50 to 47
Navy/ Rutgers 58 to 60.5
WF/FSU 51 to 48
CMU/ Purdue 60 to 64
Idaho/Utah St. 67 to 63
NM St/UTEP 53 to 58.5
NFL Sides
Tennessee -6.5 to -4.5
San Diego -7.5 to -9
College Football Free Plays
Sometimes the gambling gods work for and against you the same day. Yesterday our Top System had no business winning, until the Cubs scored four runs in the bottom of the ninth to tie the game and went on win in extra innings. The day’s Top Trend looked rock solid until Tampa Bay blew a two run lead at home in the ninth, allowing the Twins to score five times in the loss. I felt for Sal, after the excitement wore off of Colorado players, it was clear West Virginia was the better team and should have beaten the Buffalos by 10 points no problem. However ‘Teers coach Bill Stewart found a way to have the game go into overtime and eventually lost. In spite of being what appears to be a very nice man, Stewart seems more cut out working on a bowl committee, wearing a bright sports jacket and shaking everybody’s hand and telling them how wonderful they are. We have three Free Football plays ready for Saturday. Good Luck.
Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST a road team like Troy after allowing six points or less in last game, against opponent after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This system is a consistent winner at 36-9 ATS, 80 percent and says back Ohio State.
Free Football Trend -2) Fresno State is 1-11 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three seasons.
Free Football Selection -3) Brian from the Left Coast Connection makes five college football plays each Saturday and is 9-5-1 thus far. One of his plays this week will be on Utah minus the points.
Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST a road team like Troy after allowing six points or less in last game, against opponent after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This system is a consistent winner at 36-9 ATS, 80 percent and says back Ohio State.
Free Football Trend -2) Fresno State is 1-11 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three seasons.
Free Football Selection -3) Brian from the Left Coast Connection makes five college football plays each Saturday and is 9-5-1 thus far. One of his plays this week will be on Utah minus the points.
3Daily Winners Free Sports Selections
We had a perfect 2-0 day here at 3DW and the vast majority of LCC members were right on Louisville last night. When you go to Vegas and you hit a hot streak, it only makes sense to ride the wave and that is exactly what we are doing with today’s Top System, just updating the situation to fit with unreal 36-1 record. The always popular Perfect Trend returns and should have real valuable at 14-0. Sal has been the best money-maker in college football and is on one side tonight. Good Luck.
Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs, like the Brewers with a money line of +175 to +250, who are cold hitting team batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher like the Cubs Rich Harden with a WHIP of under 1.000 over his last five starts. Why mess with a good thing. This system is a staggering 36-1, including 11-0 this season.
Free Baseball Trend -2) James Shields and Tampa Bay are 14-0 against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more this season.
Free Football Selection -3) Sal from the Left Coast Connection is 11-4, 73.3 percent in college football this season and is backing West Virginia at -3 tonight.
NEW Feature – We realize not everyone has access to computer all day. We are introducing 3Daily Winners by phone. Call 480.205.9388 and listen to Free System, Top Trend and Free Pick each day, available today after 2 Eastern.
Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs, like the Brewers with a money line of +175 to +250, who are cold hitting team batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher like the Cubs Rich Harden with a WHIP of under 1.000 over his last five starts. Why mess with a good thing. This system is a staggering 36-1, including 11-0 this season.
Free Baseball Trend -2) James Shields and Tampa Bay are 14-0 against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more this season.
Free Football Selection -3) Sal from the Left Coast Connection is 11-4, 73.3 percent in college football this season and is backing West Virginia at -3 tonight.
NEW Feature – We realize not everyone has access to computer all day. We are introducing 3Daily Winners by phone. Call 480.205.9388 and listen to Free System, Top Trend and Free Pick each day, available today after 2 Eastern.
Looking ahead in Rearview Mirror in Wagering on Football
Home underdogs are well liked by supposedly bettors with more acumen; however they and everyone else might want to be careful which dogs have some bark. The NFL home teams catching points last were 1-4 ATS; the season to date record is 5-8 against the number. Teams like St. Louis and Detroit look like they will have a hard time all season no matter how many points they’ll be receiving and Cincinnati, Miami and Kansas City might not be that far behind.College football favorites took it on the chin again this week with 19-22-3 ATS record. The double digit home favorite actually did fairly well with 7-4-1 ATS record if they didn’t play a Sun Belt Conference team. This past week, home favorites of 10 or more against the Sun Belt were 1-3-1 against the number and are 6-6-1 ATS on the season. The spread record is not all that bad considering the SBC is 1-12 straight up in this role. Thank goodness USC won so decisively against Ohio State or it would have been an even blacker week for the Pac-10. As a group, the conference was 3-7 in non-conference play and 2-8 ATS the spread. Three favorites lost outright and Oregon was fortunate to survive at Purdue. The lack of defense is the likely answer with the Pac-10 being 15-5 Over in non-league games. Want more proof about the Pac-10’s struggles, what about 0-5 and 1-4 ATS against the Mountain West this season.
Do’s
If coach Gary Pinkel wants Chase Daniel to not just go to New York, but win the Heisman Trophy this season, he is doing everything possible for that to occur. Missouri leads the country in total offense at 597.3 yards a game and scoring at 57.6 points in three outings. The weapons are abundant with the likes of Jeremy Maclin and Chase Coffman to name a few. The Tigers are 14-3 ATS in all games since late 2006 and face an improving Buffalo team that can move the ball, but is slow defensively by Big 12 standards. Missouri goes to Nebraska the following week to open conference play, however catch the Huskers off big battle with Virginia Tech.
I picked TCU to win the Mountain West and nothing I have seen has changed my mind. Opponent hardly ever run on the Horned Frogs (1.7 YPC this season) and when they have a solid back seven like this year, they are efficient. Offensively, coach Gary Patterson (not the cartoonist) has moved beyond talented, but oft-injured and troubled running back Aaron Brown to options that are nearly as good. Quarterback Andy Dalton has improved tremendously in decision making and mentally is catching up to ability. TCU can name the score in alphabet contest against SMU and has covered only one of last five due to boredom. Excellent measuring stick next week when Frogs travel to Oklahoma, where they have won last two times (2005, 1996) they visited. TCU is 8-0 ATS on the receiving end of eight or more points on the road.
Oklahoma State has not and will not play an opponent that gives them a real challenge until Oct.10 at Missouri. Until then QB Zak Robinson will lead the number three rushing attack that is more diverse than the Feds AIG bailout deal. The Cowboys have big bodies up front that can help move the chains for the running backs. Okie State has enough speed on the perimeter, they can help T. Boone Pickens kick start his wind power idea. Don’t think Oklahoma State will discount Troy next week off a bye after being embarrassed by them on national TV 41-23 last season. Cowboys are 18-9-3 ATS as double digit home favorites.
Don’ts
If you are from the Eastern part of the United States and are a big fan of college football and think the Big East Conference rocks, proceed to next paragraph. The Big Least is 2-14 ATS this season, 2-14. That’s a worse record than the Milwaukee Brewers this month. Rutgers lost first two games at home by total of 49 points. At least Morgan State should stem that tide at the end of the month and only local bookies will take action on that one. The only enjoyment Syracuse fans will have this season is going to movie theatre and seeing former Orangemen Ernie Davis in, “The Express”. Don’t be surprised before the end of the season if coach Greg Robinson is in the express checkout line for departing coaches, with his recruits ranking 115th in total defense.
Was Hawaii really unbeaten and playing in the Sugar Bowl when the year began? Losing at Florida was a given and at Oregon State was not expected to be a luau, but 17 total points scored in those games! Things should improve once WAC play starts and more home games are played, nevertheless betting Hawaii, in what has to be a shock to the returning players from last season, would not in the words of the first president named Bush, “be prudent.”
UAB has already lost first three games and failed to cover any of them thanks to defense that is 119th or last in the country. (Western Kentucky is the 120th team in the FBS but is on unofficial purgatory from statistics standpoint until they become Sun Belt member next year) The Blazers have 17 returning starters back and it doesn’t look they that will help. This university gives very little support to the athletic department, with some of the most meager facilities in the country. UAB for years was a superb wager as a home dog or road dog, when they had a talented quarterback and receivers, which does not appear to be the case these days in Birmingham.
NFL Betting Thoughts
For those bettors that are emotionally involved in living and dying with every play on your bets, this past weekend was heaven and hell. The favored team trailed in six different early games, causing a great deal of consternation. If you have the NFL ticket, teams like Carolina, Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Cincinnati must have ate the same pregame meal the Cal Bears had the day before as they were as dull as a Ralph Nadar speech.
Three of the teams, the Colts, Panthers and Redskins came back to win and cover the number, spreading joy and misery at the same time. Watching the games, the sensation was exactly the same as the NCAA Basketball Tournament, where the team you picked has nice halftime lead, only to be blown out in second half and fail to cover.
Arizona is in position to win the NFC West, thanks to 2-0 start covering both games. Seattle was the odds-on favorite, but has yet to win and resembles a mash unit with so many injuries. The Cardinals season will likely hinge on the five games they will play in the Eastern Time Zone, as they are 9-21 ATS on the road against non-division teams.
Most everyone assumed Jacksonville was ready to take the next step in progression towards the Super Bowl. A 0-2 start and staring at Indianapolis this week, places the Jaguars in peril, just to make the playoffs this season. With three offensive linemen injured in the middle of the line, David Garrard is under more duress and the ground game can’t get cranked up. No point on betting on Jacksonville right now.
Media and other thoughts –David Norrie and Terry Gannon are announcers for college football games on ESPN/ABC. Norrie is a former UCLA quarterback and had a brief career in the NFL. I’ve heard him call two games this season as an analyst and maybe I just never noticed before, but if you listen to one of his games, there are 14 all-conference players with NFL ability or sure-fire first day draft potential players on the field on any given play. These are college players and I have no problem talking them up, since they are still young adults. But to blatantly suggest the talent level is this high on the field of play undermines his credibility as an analyst.
Ohio State was decidedly whacked by USC, but the aftermath led me to rethink a position. In today’s world of sports, either you are champions or chumps. Ohio State is in the conversation for one of the three best programs of this decade and has one any many BSC titles as USC. No doubt they have stunk in their last three big games and deserve a certain amount of criticism, which is another blog post. But for those in the media to call the Buckeyes –LOSERS- is wrong.
Is Phil Mickelson a loser, being the second best golfer in the world, having to be born when Tiger Woods came around? What about those that work at Pepsi are they losers, having never passed up Coke for the top spot in soft drinks? What about the commission salesmen who are second or third in their companies for selling whatever, are they losers for not being the best?
Only one person, team or company can be at the top of the sheet. That doesn’t mean the others aren’t striving to be better, quite the contrary, maybe the circumstances don’t allow them to reach the top or sometimes they are just not as good. The last thing Ohio State players are is losers. Keep in mind, if New England played the New York Giants five times, who do you think would have won the majority of the time? On that day, the Giants were better, that’s all.
Do’s
If coach Gary Pinkel wants Chase Daniel to not just go to New York, but win the Heisman Trophy this season, he is doing everything possible for that to occur. Missouri leads the country in total offense at 597.3 yards a game and scoring at 57.6 points in three outings. The weapons are abundant with the likes of Jeremy Maclin and Chase Coffman to name a few. The Tigers are 14-3 ATS in all games since late 2006 and face an improving Buffalo team that can move the ball, but is slow defensively by Big 12 standards. Missouri goes to Nebraska the following week to open conference play, however catch the Huskers off big battle with Virginia Tech.
I picked TCU to win the Mountain West and nothing I have seen has changed my mind. Opponent hardly ever run on the Horned Frogs (1.7 YPC this season) and when they have a solid back seven like this year, they are efficient. Offensively, coach Gary Patterson (not the cartoonist) has moved beyond talented, but oft-injured and troubled running back Aaron Brown to options that are nearly as good. Quarterback Andy Dalton has improved tremendously in decision making and mentally is catching up to ability. TCU can name the score in alphabet contest against SMU and has covered only one of last five due to boredom. Excellent measuring stick next week when Frogs travel to Oklahoma, where they have won last two times (2005, 1996) they visited. TCU is 8-0 ATS on the receiving end of eight or more points on the road.
Oklahoma State has not and will not play an opponent that gives them a real challenge until Oct.10 at Missouri. Until then QB Zak Robinson will lead the number three rushing attack that is more diverse than the Feds AIG bailout deal. The Cowboys have big bodies up front that can help move the chains for the running backs. Okie State has enough speed on the perimeter, they can help T. Boone Pickens kick start his wind power idea. Don’t think Oklahoma State will discount Troy next week off a bye after being embarrassed by them on national TV 41-23 last season. Cowboys are 18-9-3 ATS as double digit home favorites.
Don’ts
If you are from the Eastern part of the United States and are a big fan of college football and think the Big East Conference rocks, proceed to next paragraph. The Big Least is 2-14 ATS this season, 2-14. That’s a worse record than the Milwaukee Brewers this month. Rutgers lost first two games at home by total of 49 points. At least Morgan State should stem that tide at the end of the month and only local bookies will take action on that one. The only enjoyment Syracuse fans will have this season is going to movie theatre and seeing former Orangemen Ernie Davis in, “The Express”. Don’t be surprised before the end of the season if coach Greg Robinson is in the express checkout line for departing coaches, with his recruits ranking 115th in total defense.
Was Hawaii really unbeaten and playing in the Sugar Bowl when the year began? Losing at Florida was a given and at Oregon State was not expected to be a luau, but 17 total points scored in those games! Things should improve once WAC play starts and more home games are played, nevertheless betting Hawaii, in what has to be a shock to the returning players from last season, would not in the words of the first president named Bush, “be prudent.”
UAB has already lost first three games and failed to cover any of them thanks to defense that is 119th or last in the country. (Western Kentucky is the 120th team in the FBS but is on unofficial purgatory from statistics standpoint until they become Sun Belt member next year) The Blazers have 17 returning starters back and it doesn’t look they that will help. This university gives very little support to the athletic department, with some of the most meager facilities in the country. UAB for years was a superb wager as a home dog or road dog, when they had a talented quarterback and receivers, which does not appear to be the case these days in Birmingham.
NFL Betting Thoughts
For those bettors that are emotionally involved in living and dying with every play on your bets, this past weekend was heaven and hell. The favored team trailed in six different early games, causing a great deal of consternation. If you have the NFL ticket, teams like Carolina, Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Cincinnati must have ate the same pregame meal the Cal Bears had the day before as they were as dull as a Ralph Nadar speech.
Three of the teams, the Colts, Panthers and Redskins came back to win and cover the number, spreading joy and misery at the same time. Watching the games, the sensation was exactly the same as the NCAA Basketball Tournament, where the team you picked has nice halftime lead, only to be blown out in second half and fail to cover.
Arizona is in position to win the NFC West, thanks to 2-0 start covering both games. Seattle was the odds-on favorite, but has yet to win and resembles a mash unit with so many injuries. The Cardinals season will likely hinge on the five games they will play in the Eastern Time Zone, as they are 9-21 ATS on the road against non-division teams.
Most everyone assumed Jacksonville was ready to take the next step in progression towards the Super Bowl. A 0-2 start and staring at Indianapolis this week, places the Jaguars in peril, just to make the playoffs this season. With three offensive linemen injured in the middle of the line, David Garrard is under more duress and the ground game can’t get cranked up. No point on betting on Jacksonville right now.
Media and other thoughts –David Norrie and Terry Gannon are announcers for college football games on ESPN/ABC. Norrie is a former UCLA quarterback and had a brief career in the NFL. I’ve heard him call two games this season as an analyst and maybe I just never noticed before, but if you listen to one of his games, there are 14 all-conference players with NFL ability or sure-fire first day draft potential players on the field on any given play. These are college players and I have no problem talking them up, since they are still young adults. But to blatantly suggest the talent level is this high on the field of play undermines his credibility as an analyst.
Ohio State was decidedly whacked by USC, but the aftermath led me to rethink a position. In today’s world of sports, either you are champions or chumps. Ohio State is in the conversation for one of the three best programs of this decade and has one any many BSC titles as USC. No doubt they have stunk in their last three big games and deserve a certain amount of criticism, which is another blog post. But for those in the media to call the Buckeyes –LOSERS- is wrong.
Is Phil Mickelson a loser, being the second best golfer in the world, having to be born when Tiger Woods came around? What about those that work at Pepsi are they losers, having never passed up Coke for the top spot in soft drinks? What about the commission salesmen who are second or third in their companies for selling whatever, are they losers for not being the best?
Only one person, team or company can be at the top of the sheet. That doesn’t mean the others aren’t striving to be better, quite the contrary, maybe the circumstances don’t allow them to reach the top or sometimes they are just not as good. The last thing Ohio State players are is losers. Keep in mind, if New England played the New York Giants five times, who do you think would have won the majority of the time? On that day, the Giants were better, that’s all.
Free Baseball Plays for Hump Day
There is nothing wrong with a sweet 3-1 day here at 3Daily Winners. Our System selection won on an underdog yesterday and today we bring back a system that we have used often here, and once you read about it, you will understand why. Today’s Top Trend follows the exploits of the best pitcher in baseball this season. No Free Plays today, just interesting info. Good Luck.
Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like the Astros with a money line of +175 to +250, who are cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher like Marlins Ricky Nolasco, who has a WHIP under 1.000 over his last five starts. This mellifluous system is 35-1 the last three years, including 10-0 this season.
Free Baseball Trend -2) Though we could use yesterday’s top trend again by adding one since it fits (see Below), we’ll keep it fresh and see if Cliff Lee and Cleveland can improve to 14-1 when the total is 8 to 8.5.
Free Football Selection -3) Baseball plays are pretty split, with nothing standing out. Though not official play, 10 members of LCC on Louisville and 4 on Kansas State tonight.
NEW Feature – We realize not everyone has access to computer all day. We are introducing 3Daily Winners by phone. Call 480.205.9388 and listen to Free System, Top Trend and Free Pick each day, available after 5:30 Eastern weekdays.
Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like the Astros with a money line of +175 to +250, who are cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher like Marlins Ricky Nolasco, who has a WHIP under 1.000 over his last five starts. This mellifluous system is 35-1 the last three years, including 10-0 this season.
Free Baseball Trend -2) Though we could use yesterday’s top trend again by adding one since it fits (see Below), we’ll keep it fresh and see if Cliff Lee and Cleveland can improve to 14-1 when the total is 8 to 8.5.
Free Football Selection -3) Baseball plays are pretty split, with nothing standing out. Though not official play, 10 members of LCC on Louisville and 4 on Kansas State tonight.
NEW Feature – We realize not everyone has access to computer all day. We are introducing 3Daily Winners by phone. Call 480.205.9388 and listen to Free System, Top Trend and Free Pick each day, available after 5:30 Eastern weekdays.
Betting the Big East Takes Guts
When the ACC raided the Big East, many thought this would signal the end of this league as a power and talk circulated that potentially this conference should be decertified as a BCS league. Naturally the conference members howled their disapproval and went out and did a little pilfering of their own in grabbing Cincinnati, Louisville and South Florida from Conference-USA.The first year turned out better than the Big East could have imagined, with conference champion, West Virginia pulling a stunning upset of Georgia 38-35 as six-point underdog in the Sugar Bowl in 2006.
Big East Commissioner Mike Tranghese was absolutely thrilled about how the 2007 season played out. Barely one year removed from dismissal talk, this conference had three teams in the Top 10 in the country in November, with several key games to be played. Louisville ended up being the champion of the Big East and did the league proud with a 24-13 win over Wake Forest in the Orange Bowl.
Last season was not quite as exciting as the previous year, but all eyes were on West Virginia, who was in line to potentially play for the national championship with a win over rival Pittsburgh at home. The Mountaineers were monstrous 29-point favorites, yet fell to the Panthers 13-9, after quarterback Pat White went down with an injury. The whole Rich Rodriquez saga ensued, with him taking the Michigan job and few gave West Virginia a chance in the Fiesta Bowl against Oklahoma as seven point underdogs. Instead, a proud group of Mountaineers was energized and they out-muscled and out-fought a Sooners team that didn’t know what hit them, winning 48-28 under then interim coach Bill Stewart.
Fast forward to today, after three weeks of the college football season, the Big East is 10-9 in non-conference play and get this 1-14 against the spread. (Really) What has happened in the course of a few seasons, at the pinnacle of the league’s success?
One of the most underrated and not frequently discussed aspects of conferences is the coaches in the league. Television commentators will question the judgment of a coach’s decision, yet will never go into the intricacies how good a coach one may actually be. This shouldn’t be surprising given the knowledge those working on public airwaves have to use these coaches to find out information and are seeking nuggets of information that can be used on a broadcast. Alienate the coach by criticizing him, essentially access is denied.
That is not a problem here, as we can dissect what is currently happening in the Big East. West Virginia, the reigning conference champs, had plenty of questions about the hiring of Bill Stewart to what has become a Top 10 program. Stewart is an affable man, a big smile and considered to be a smart assistant coach. With the bar having been raised under Rodriguez’s tenure, is he the right man to continue the structure? He’s put in a new offense that suits his preferences, yet as East Carolina game proved, the players are somewhat miscast and searching to understand what they need to do. With the Big East having only eight members, this leaves room for five non-conferences games. The ‘Teers have not been strong against these types of opponents and are 12-14-1 ATS since 2003.
Louisville has gone from a powerhouse to also-ran, with the departure of nomadic Bobby Petrino. The talent level has shrunk like a 100 percent cotton shirt thrown into a hot dryer and the natives are getting restless about coach Steve Kragthorpe spoiling what has been a very good thing for the Papa John Cardinal Stadium crowd. The Cards are 14-11 ATS in non-league games, but just 1-4 ATS the last two years.
Pittsburgh and Syracuse, two original members are saddled with two former NFL coaches, who are not getting the job done. Dave Wannstedt is 17-20 at Pitt with 16-18ATS record and has never shown a proclivity towards winning as a head coach anywhere. Syracuse fired Paul Pasqualoni for too many 6-6 to 8-4 seasons and hired Greg Robinson. Those numbers would be a welcome relief for the Orange fans with Robinson 7-31 and 15-23 ATS.
Connecticut’s Randy Edsall and Rutgers Greg Schiano both have proven to be solid coaches in building programs from nothing. Now they have reached a level of success, can either overcome limitations by the universities to take programs to championship levels? Coming into this 2008 campaign, both coaches had done well in the last five years in non-conference play (Rutgers 17-7-1 ATS and UConn 17-12-1 ATS), however most of those numbers were as undervalued underdogs.
Cincinnati has Brian Kelley in his second season. Kelly had unbelievable success at D-ll level with 118-35-2 record and is known for no-nonsense approach. Too early to predict what happens in the Queen City.
Presently the most stable program is South Florida, who didn’t have football 12 years ago. Jim Leavitt took the job in Tampa and quickly has ascended this program to alarmingly unique heights, starting from scratch. Most of his assistants have been there since day one, helping provide the continuity which has helped make this work. Even with this uprising, the Bulls are pedestrian 9-10 ATS in non-conference play in just over five seasons.
With the Big East on such shaky ground from coaching perspective, what should one expect once conference play starts? It would stand to reason underdogs of all sorts should do well given the state of affairs. Here is a chart explaining how these teams have performed as home favorites in the Big East as long as they have been part of the conference.
Big East ATS Records as Favorites
For Conference Play Last Five Years
Cincinnati 1-2 (3-years as member)
Connecticut 4-1 (4-years as member)
Louisville 6-4 (3-years as member)
Pittsburgh 6-3
Rutgers 2-5
South Florida 2-3 (3-years as member)
Syracuse 5-3
West Virginia 4-9-1
This conference has been a bookmaker’s dream with 30-30-1 ATS record on home favorites, with existing teams over the last five years. With the current coaching lineup, the numbers are actually more in favor of the road underdog than at first glance. Pittsburgh might be 6-3 ATS as a home Big East favorite, but all three losses have come with Wanny as coach. Basically the same is true of Syracuse, with their three spread losses coming with Robinson wearing the headset.
Watch closely who these Big East teams are matched against in non-conference play this week, trying to fully understand not only the opponent, but who is on the other sideline as coach. When league play starts, watch the spreads of home favorites, being able to take advantage of quality situations.
Top Tuesday Free Plays
Kendall of the Left Coast Connection finished off a 4-0 NFL weekend with winner on the Eagles and is 8-1 on the season. Today’s Top System involves division rivals and is a rare play that hits 80 percent of the time. The perfect Trend is back and is in the Keystone State. In an odd occurrence, the LCC has two unanimous MLB plays today. Good Luck.
Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON home teams like the Cubs who are very good offensive team scoring 5.3 runs or more a game, against a very good starting pitcher like Milwaukee's C.C. Sabathia with ERA under three in the NL, with a starting pitcher like Ryan Dempster who allows 5.5 or less hits a start. This rare system is 8-2 since 2006.
Free Baseball Trend -2) The Pittsburgh Pirates are 0-10 at home when +150 to +200 underdogs this season.
Free Baseball Selection -3) I hasn't happened but maybe 10 times all season, but the members of the Left Coast Connection both unanimously support Philadelphia and Toronto in MLB action. In each case, eight members picked these two teams with no dissenters.
NEW Feature – We realize not everyone has access to computer all day. We are introducing 3Daily Winners by phone. Call 480.205.9388 and listen to Free System, Top Trend and Free Pick each day, available after 5:30 Eastern weekdays.
Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON home teams like the Cubs who are very good offensive team scoring 5.3 runs or more a game, against a very good starting pitcher like Milwaukee's C.C. Sabathia with ERA under three in the NL, with a starting pitcher like Ryan Dempster who allows 5.5 or less hits a start. This rare system is 8-2 since 2006.
Free Baseball Trend -2) The Pittsburgh Pirates are 0-10 at home when +150 to +200 underdogs this season.
Free Baseball Selection -3) I hasn't happened but maybe 10 times all season, but the members of the Left Coast Connection both unanimously support Philadelphia and Toronto in MLB action. In each case, eight members picked these two teams with no dissenters.
NEW Feature – We realize not everyone has access to computer all day. We are introducing 3Daily Winners by phone. Call 480.205.9388 and listen to Free System, Top Trend and Free Pick each day, available after 5:30 Eastern weekdays.
Monday's Free Plays from 3Daily Winners
Another nice 2-1 day as our System and Free Play were both Winners. Kendall has been scintillating the start the NFL season at 7-1 and gave us the Packers yesterday. Today he has side on the Monday night game with advice. Our Top Trend checks in on the Minnesota Twins tonight. There was not any outstanding baseball systems today, leading us to look a college football money line play that is 32-2 over the last decade. Good Luck.
Free Football System-1) PLAY ON home favorites like Georgia Tech vs. the money line in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with two or more straight wins. This college football ML system is 32-2 since 1998.
Free Baseball Trend -2) The Minnesota Twins are 15-2 against the money line with an on base percentage of .393 or better over their last three games this season.
Free Football Selection -3) Kendall from the Left Coast Connection was 3-0 in the NFL yesterday (now 7-1 for the year), with winners on Green Bay (here), Oakland and New England. Kendall believes a tie is better than a loss and is playing Philadelphia and recommends to do so only if number is at +7 or higher. Anything below, he suggests passing.
NEW Feature – We realize not everyone has access to computer all day. We are introducing 3Daily Winners by phone. Call 480.205.9388 and listen to Free System, Top Trend and Free Pick each day, available after 5:30 Eastern weekdays.
Free Football System-1) PLAY ON home favorites like Georgia Tech vs. the money line in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with two or more straight wins. This college football ML system is 32-2 since 1998.
Free Baseball Trend -2) The Minnesota Twins are 15-2 against the money line with an on base percentage of .393 or better over their last three games this season.
Free Football Selection -3) Kendall from the Left Coast Connection was 3-0 in the NFL yesterday (now 7-1 for the year), with winners on Green Bay (here), Oakland and New England. Kendall believes a tie is better than a loss and is playing Philadelphia and recommends to do so only if number is at +7 or higher. Anything below, he suggests passing.
NEW Feature – We realize not everyone has access to computer all day. We are introducing 3Daily Winners by phone. Call 480.205.9388 and listen to Free System, Top Trend and Free Pick each day, available after 5:30 Eastern weekdays.
NFL Free Plays for Sunday
Over the last two days, the college football plays ended being 4-2, for some nice winning action. Two of those wins came from our Super Systems plays and today we have a 79.2 percent system with a solid winning margin. The Top Trend looks at one of the two AFC West matchups and Kendall from the Left Coast Connection will go for a second straight week of NFL winners with a surprising play. Good Luck.
Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST home teams like Minnesota where the line is +3 to -3- off a road loss, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses. This system is 38-10 79.2 percent with winning margin being 6.3 points per game.
Free Football Trend -2) The Oakland Raiders are 1-9 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2+ seasons.
Free Football Selection -3) Kendall was 4-1 in the NFL last week and sees Green Bay coming away a spread winner.
NEW Feature – We realize not everyone has access to computer all day. We are introducing 3Daily Winners by phone. Call 480.205.9388 and listen to Free system, Top Trend and Free Pick each day, starting today after 11:30 Eastern.
Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST home teams like Minnesota where the line is +3 to -3- off a road loss, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses. This system is 38-10 79.2 percent with winning margin being 6.3 points per game.
Free Football Trend -2) The Oakland Raiders are 1-9 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2+ seasons.
Free Football Selection -3) Kendall was 4-1 in the NFL last week and sees Green Bay coming away a spread winner.
NEW Feature – We realize not everyone has access to computer all day. We are introducing 3Daily Winners by phone. Call 480.205.9388 and listen to Free system, Top Trend and Free Pick each day, starting today after 11:30 Eastern.
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