Early Line Moves in Football

For the Early Line Moves, we seek out the earliest lines and compare them on late Tuesday nights numbers to see what the so-called Line Movers do. By and large their track record is solid and dependable. Last week in college football was not good at 2-5-1 on the sides and 3-3 in college totals. This makes season record 30-22-2, 57.6 percent on sides and 25-15, 62.5 percent on Totals in CFB. In the NFL, they were 0-3 on sides bringing the record to 9-7, 56.2 percent. On the Totals a 3-1 week makes the updated figure 9-9, 50 percent. I wouldn’t be surprised if these did well this week. Enjoy reading and closely follow these numbers for wagering portfolio.

College Sides
TCU +1.5 to -1.5 Winner
Conn. +3.5 to -1
Wake Forest Pick to -2.5
W. Mich +3.5 to -1
Nevada -18.5 to -21
Kentucky -10 to -7.5
Louis. Tech 17.5 to 20.5
Stanford +2.5 to -1
Flor. Atl +1 to -2

College Totals
BYU/TCU 47 to 44 Winner
Miami/Duke 46 to 43
Pur/Northw 42 to 45.5
Oreg.St./Wash 62.5 to 59.5
Ark.St/ULL 68.5 to 62

NFL Sides
Buffalo +2 to Pick
N.Y. Giants -13 to -11

NFL Totals
SD/Buff 46.5 to 44.5
Sea/TB 41.5 to 39
Den/NE 46 to 48

College Football Select Game Writeups

The Missouri and Texas matchup was close to being 1 vs 2, unfortunately the Tigers did not hold up their end of the deal. Vanderbilt and Oklahoma both suffered first loss of the season, each as favorites and will look to rebound in very different roles this Saturday. Michigan State and Arizona are both home underdogs this week and can make national noise with upset victories of which they are both capable. Defensive dogs like the Wildcats holding teams to under 275 yards of offense are dangerous. All the lines shown are from Bookmaker.com. To read the Game write-up click here.

Off the Red River Rivalry battle, Oklahoma looks to rebound with a tricky foe. The Sooners (5-1, 4-1 ATS) flunked their first true challenge against Texas. What has been seen is the purpose of which the Oklahoma offense has played with this season, borrowing from 70’s rock group Bachman-Turner Overdrive and later Office Depot; the Sooners have been taking care of business. Sam Bradford continues his amazing season, with more poise in 2008 and trio of running backs, led by DeMarco Murray run behind a nasty offensive line, averaging over a 157 yards per game.

College Football Betting for Saturday

Officially 3Daily Winners ended up 2-0 for Thursday, nonetheless it was good to have all readers hopefully take advantage of all four winning plays. Our top NHL guy was right on Buffalo Friday night. One small thought, what would be the outcry if Tom Brady had the same knee problem Peyton Manning has had and it had been kept equally as quiet as the Colts have done it.

Saturday’s Best System has two plays with a 90 percent spread record. The Top Trend ventures into the ACC to take a peek at the Turtles. A piping hot sports bettor ways in again with his Best Bet on Saturday’s card. Good Luck.

A thought to ponder, if the price of a barrel of oil is half of what it was in May, how come gas prices are not? Of that’s right, the oil companies are reinvesting in alternative fuels, forgot about that.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON road favorites after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game, with five or more offensive starters back. How this works is enough offensive talent is available for this team to put up a better performance than what they had in last game. Seeing the oddsmakers still have enough faith in them to make road chalk, they should be good. This succulent system is 27-3 ATS, 90 percent. The teams to consider are the U at Miami and Georgia Tech.

Free Football Trend -2) Maryland is 10-1 ATS at home after a loss of 28 or more points.

Free Football Selection -3) Last Saturday we gave you a member of the Left Coast Connection’s best bet on South Carolina, which was part of his picks that went 3-0 to raise his college football record to 14-2 the last month. This week his Top Play is Northern Illinois.

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Free College Football Plays at 3Daily Winners

We’ll go a little more football intensive today, with all three plays covering various aspects. The system play is “a don’t make sense” one, but who cares if it goes to 31-8 record. We are giving out two trends today, with both being more obscure, yet potentially quite useful. The Left Coast Connection members chime in on the big BYU-TCU contest. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with a good rushing defense allowing 125 or less rushing yards a game, after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game. Not really sure why this system works, since the two aspects seem to have nothing in common, but who are we to argue with 30-8 ATS record. Florida State is the play against team.

Free Football Trends -2) Thou neither will be counted officially, here are two trends to consider tonight. TCU is 5-0 ATS the last decade when Top 25 teams visit Fort Worth and Florida State is 0-6 ATS after scoring 40 or more points.

Free Football Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection has 10 betting on TCU and two favoring BYU tonight.

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Betting on tonight's ACC Game

While this Atlantic Coast Conference contest is not even the most important game on Thursday night, there is more than enough intrigue for those surfing channels and college football bettors alike. Let’s start with the TMZ-like stuff first. Long time Florida State assistant coach Chuck Amato left Tallahassee to coach is alma mater N.C. State in 2000 and his teams were known for undisciplined play, winning when they shouldn’t and losing when they should. His most notable accomplishment (besides the weird sunglasses) was beating the Seminoles three times, twice in North Florida. After being fired in 2006 for a 3-9 season in Raleigh, Bobby Bowden brought him back as linebacker coach and the Chuckster returns to the Carter-Finley Stadium for the first time since.

The first really big question is how does the Wolfpack extend spread cover record to 7-1 against Florida State? For practical purposes let’s assume it won’t be from running the ball, with N.C. State 117th in the country toting the pigskin and the Seminoles fifth stopping opposing ball carriers. Maybe the Wolfpack players will all excited to play on Thursday night before the home crowd and unknowingly raise their record to 8-0 ATS after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in two straight games. Yea, that’s gonna happen, let’s get out the lipstick for the pig.

Passing the ball is not a great option, as Wolfpack quarterbacks complete less than 50 percent of their attempts. No wonder Bookmaker.com has N.C. State as a 10.5-point home underdog, their offense is downright offensive.

Moving on, can the Wolfpack defense help pull the upset? Looking at the numbers at face value, the answer would be unequivocal, NO. They give up 430 yards a game compared to the teams they’ve played that have averaged 359 yards a game. That’s a difference of 71 yards (those high school math classes paying off again) which makes this as likely to happen as Linda and Hulk Hogan getting back together.

Does this mean N.C. State has no shot? No, no, no, of course not. Were talking a hulking young men interested in women, video games, UFC and women (not necessarily in that order). The Florida State offensive line is WAY better than what they have had in the last five years, yet is won’t be mentioned among the best 20 in the country. Stoic coach Tom O’Brien defense has to jam up the middle and take away Florida State run game. The idea is to force frosh QB Christian Ponder to be a playmaker as passer. Ponder is completing 40 percent of his passes for 165 yards a game in last three outings. Bobby Bowden’s team is starting to look more like the Navy offense than the Noles. Make Ponder ponder about passing and maybe N.C. State can improve to 7-2 in ACC games.

Let’s not forget, Florida State has beaten two FCS teams, Colorado and the U (Miami), with the latter two both .500. Offensive prosperity has not officially returned just yet with head-coach-in-waiting Jimbo Fisher running the offense. The Seminoles are 0-6 ATS in next game if oddsmakers have a line on it after cracking the 40 point barrier. Bowden’s bunch is 4-10 against the spread after holding a team to under the century mark rushing the ball.

I’ll give very shaky support to the cranked up home team to cover. What I really prefer is the total which is at 47.5. Turnovers could turn this into a loser for this guest writer, but what the heck, I found out Florida State is 12-3 Under as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points, with average score coming in at just a hair over 42 points. N.C. State is 12-3 Under playing on Thursday’s with average score a trifle beyond 44 total points.

In conclusion, I’m betting the Under and still thinking about a parlay with the total and Wolfpack and you can do whatever you like. Thanks for reading.

Red Wydley

Looking in the Rearview Mirror in Betting Football

Week 6 of the NFL saw a return of low scoring football, with 10 of the 14 games played going Under the number. That was the first time since week 1 the majority of games had followed that path. For the season, the record stands at 47-40-1 Over. On the topic of totals, one aspect bookmakers are getting crushed in is the Monday night total. After the Giants and Browns affair, the number is 7-0 Over to start a new work week.

Over the last four years betting against the bottom five teams in the Yards Per Point category has netted a winning percentage of 55 to 62 percent after week 3 of the season. In 2008, it has been completely the opposite, with these bottom feeders astonishing 9-1 ATS, the first three weeks. Based on the past, can’t say this trend will continue, however if Kansas City, St. Louis, Baltimore, Oakland or Minnesota make sense as potential plays this week, this might be one more reason to back them. Coincidently, all five are underdogs.

One of the most overlooked aspects of wagering on football is coaching. It’s not technical handicapping and not exactly like situational handicapping per se, since you can’t be sure when the light goes on for a coach and his staff. Two great examples were on prime time this past week. San Diego got off to another tough 0-2 start this season. No doubt injuries played a part. The Chargers flew by the Jets on a Monday night and beat Oakland with a sharp second half 28-18 to square record at 2-2.

San Diego traveled to Miami and Norv Turner and his offensive staff prepared a game plan of trying to run the ball down the throats of Miami, having determined they had a physical advantage to do so. On defense, the loss of Shawne Merriman had seen the Chargers return to a softer bend-but-don’t break approach. The Dolphins came into the game feeling spry after whipping New England and off a bye. Miami was the aggressor from the start and carried the game to San Diego, who quickly found out they were not going to have success running the ball and coach Turner was slow to react. The Chargers ended up losing 17-10 and were undermined by a poorly conceived game plan on both sides of the ball.

This past Sunday, Turner and his staff finally assembled a game plan that matched the situation, and better utilized the talents of the players on the team. New England might not have Tom Brady; however I don’t recall him taking a snap playing in the secondary. CB Delta O’Neal has played for a number of NFL teams for a reason, he’s adequate at best. The Chargers have big athletic receivers who can go get the ball. They attacked the Patriots from the opening play with the long pass and never relented. As John Madden pointed out, L.T. is not 100 percent and thus passing first, forced New England to not commit as many players to hang around the line of scrimmage, which gave the Bolts a better opportunity to run the ball.

Defensively, DC Ted Cottrell is known for playing tendencies of opponents, rather than attacking. In this game he understood the limitations of the Matt Cassel and attacked him. While Cottrell is obviously a smart man to stay employed in the NFL, he doesn’t always play to the players he has on hand. With or without Merriman, the Chargers players are more emotional lot and play their best when on the attack. He set up such a plan last week; watch to see if he does so in the coming weeks.

The Cleveland Browns were in the words of Tony Kornheiser, “A sexy pick to win the AFC North” and instead started 0-3. They limped past a skuzzy Cincinnati squad 20-12 and nearly benched quarterback Derek Anderson for being terrible. With two weeks to prepare for the Giants, Romeo Crennel and has coaching staff must have had an epiphany. The strength of the team is the offensive line and its receivers. Braylon Edwards had played dreadful, which undermined success, but like most prima-donna receivers in the NFL, he needs to be a focal point and has to have that confidence early in the game. Cleveland got the ball in his hands quickly and the offensive line took the challenge of going up against one of the best defensive fronts in football and ran for 144 yards along with providing superior pass blocking in what turned into a 35-14 rout.

The point is intelligent NFL coaches will devise aggressive game plans that utilize the strengths of their teams and attack the weaknesses of their opponents. It sounds like this is something they should do every week, yet as any football bettor or interested fan knows this is not the case. The players still have to play; nonetheless coaches have to place players in the best position for success.

Some might wonder about the other team making adjustments based on what they see on tape to counteract what an opponent had success at. That is a logical conclusion, which is exactly why the elite coaches come up with the right answers most of the time in a 16-game season and are paid handsomely to do so.

College Football Betting Thoughts

We are at the unofficial half way point of the college football season and this past week was a killer for two areas of college football teams from wagering perspective. Home teams that were favored by 10 or more points were abysmal 4-15-1 ATS, including five outright losses and Texas Tech holding on to win in overtime. On the season, home underdogs had been hovering around .500 against the spread. This past week they were sickly 6-14 ATS for a two week total of 11-25-3 against the spread. On the season home underdogs that have won outright, are 5-11 ATS in next game.

As opposed to what normally happens in the pro game, spread losses tend to snow ball in the college game. What we look for is teams off of exactly three spread losses. After another crummy 1-3-1 week, the season record on these squads in next game is 5-10-1 ATS, offering play against possibilities this week on Wisconsin, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, Washington State, Washington, Southern Miss, Mid. Tenn. State and Colorado.

Though the timing was somewhat curious, Tommy Bowden being fired at Clemson does not come as a shock. Much like the cat with nine lives, Bowden had time and time again managed to survive disappointment from the Clemson faithful, with the Tigers rallying down the stretch. This year was different, as Clemson was the clear choice to conquer a winnable ACC. Their first game against Alabama taught us two things, how good the Crimson Tide really was and this Clemson team was not ready for prime time.

For most of Bowden’s tenure at Clemson, bettors rode the wave with the Tigers, play them when they’re hot and going the other way when they are not. The last straw was the Wake Forest loss, after a disappointing defeat to Maryland. A quality football team that believes in the coach and the staff comes out focused and wins that game. Instead, these Tigers yawned, with the message very clear the team wasn’t buying what Bowden was selling.

Remember when Oklahoma won the national championship in 2000? Those early years for Bob Stoops were defensive teams that popped opponents and let them know more was coming. Watching the Sooners against Texas, it was obvious in the first half, this team didn’t have that “pop” most top teams in the country have. Oklahoma made tackles just fine, but no gusto behind them. The best way to describe it is when you watch a minor bowl game between evenly matched teams and you end up thinking, these are two competent teams, you wonder how they ended up 7-5. Then on New Year’s Day, a matchup of two BCS teams takes place and you suddenly see the real difference. With how competitive the Big 12 is going to be the rest of the way, the Sooners are still very much in the hunt; nonetheless they will need a more physical presence to give themselves a chance.

On the topic of the Big 12, all those SEC snobs can stick your nose up to the rest of college football about your superiority, but I’m not backing you up this time. The Big 12 has better quarterbacks, enough speed and can play the power game. A few SEC know-it-alls who arrive at games to start tailgating on Thursday (actually I’m a little jealous about that idea) will point to the Texas and Oklahoma game as no defense being played, like they do in the South. Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t Florida hang on 51 on LSU? The overall quarterback play of the Big 12 is just better this season and I’ll rate the leagues as even.

Depending on when a bettor purchased Georgia against Tennessee, all three outcomes were possible. (Win, lose or push) If you are a Bulldogs fan or betting Georgia games with regularity, isn’t it shocking the number of bad (dumb) plays Mathew Stafford continues to make? Stafford had career day throwing for 310 yards against Tennessee, however made what looked liked two bad passes in the red zone costing the ‘Dogs a chance to bury Tennessee by 21 or more points. If this was the first time it had happened all year, I might have different opinion, yet watching him, he makes a couple of these decisions a game. Backing Georgia right now as favorite has risky feel.

Take this spread and shove it! That’s what Tommy Tuberville did at Auburn, sending offensive coordinator Tony Franklin away and about 110,000 and more Michigan football fans would like to do the same to Rich Rodriquez. Auburn is a mess and the timing could hardly be any worse for Tigers fans with Alabama a rising tide. With games still at Penn State and Ohio State, plus home to improving Michigan State, Rodriquez might become more famous for being the coach that engineered the Wolverines 33-year bowl streak coming to an end. Betting against these two offensive misfits is the only way to go today.

Hump Day Action at 3Daily Winners

We received a nice Free Winner on Minnesota in the NHL last night, if our guy from the Left Coast Connection has another we’ll post it later today. Yesterday’s trend was a loser, as it looks like Tampa Bay; (think about that for a second) is one game away from going to the World Series. Fox Sports worst nightmare is about to happen if it’s the Phillies and Rays. Speaking of the City of Brotherly Love, our Top Trend involves their team tonight. The System play looks at the total of an AFC North division encounter with a 32-8 track record. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY OVER on any team where the total is 35 or less after failing to cover the spread in four or five out of their last six games. This total system is 32-8, 80 percent since 2004 and Cincinnati is the team the matches this system as they get ready to host Pittsburgh.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Philadelphia and Los Angeles have played Over 11 of 12 times at Dodger Stadium the last three years.

Free Selection -3) Pass today

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Understanding Valuable Football Betting Aspects

With most teams at the mid-point of the college football campaign, conference races are taking shape and meaningful data is being accumulated. Those wagering on college football should be gearing up for a successful second half of the season, no matter what the earlier results were.

In order to be successful you have to be extremely savvy. Too many bettors in any sport focus on too few aspects that can help them win. Some focus on statistical data, which is great way to understand how teams play. Here you can view how teams run the ball and pass the pigskin. At the same time you can see how they do defensively in the same areas. As the season continues, searching for similar opponents can be a big advantage, pitting one team against another in head to head comparison. This can show the strengths and weaknesses of teams against a given foe.

The negative to this type of comparison is placing absolute value on the predictive nature of the next game. How does a team like Michigan State that had averaged 234 yards rushing in its four previous games, run for just 91 yards at home against Iowa on Oct.4, in a game the Spartans should have lost (Iowa in the end zone –awful) and barely managed to cover at six-point favorites 16-13? This is where the sports bettor has to be armed with more then on the surface knowledge and be ready to take the next step.

Situational handicapping is needed to be blended with technical material. Michigan State was off four satisfying wins and could have covered the spread in all four games, except for inclement weather at home against Florida Atlantic. Iowa was off a pair of losses, mostly due to inferior quarterback play that prevented them from scoring more points. The Hawkeyes had the motivational edge in desire, wanting to break losing skid and Michigan State might be a little satisfied after playing quite well.

In studying statistics, Iowa had held its earlier opponents to about three yards per carry. A look at the numbers saw the Spartans had only rushed for 91 yards at California in their only loss. A quick check of the stats shows the Bears are allowing 2.5 yards per carry.

The final piece to this puzzle is the play of guarterback Brian Hoyer. The numbers suggest Hoyer is having a decent season; however Michigan State is built around the running game. Hoyer has the ability to throw the ball, but is not a great playmaker. He’s more suited to lead a team into scoring position and then the running game takes over. Despite a 4-1 record (at the time), Hoyer had three touchdown passes and three interceptions coming into first Spartans Big 10 home game.

Let’s review why Iowa was great underdog play. They needed to win after a pair of losses and Michigan State was at home hearing about how well they are playing. The Hawkeyes run defense is quite good and the Spartans had shown they could be stopped rushing the ball. In spite of a quarterback edge for Michigan State, their signal caller had not made “difference” plays most of the season.

This type of analysis might seem overwhelming or very time consuming. The fact is once the proper routine is setup, a schedule of 40-50 games can be knocked off in an evening. Studying your stats lays down a solid foundation of understanding teams, yet I have never seen a number that tells me when a team might be more or less motivated for a specific game. Winning isn’t supposed to be easy, that’s why most bettors lose.

In today’s world, where everything is seemingly going wrong, people are looking to those who have substantive answers (not those seeking to be elected officials) that can get the world back on track. Betting football changes every year, as home underdogs are super one year and not the next. This is where it pays to look beyond the curtain and see what else is available.

One of my colleagues at the Platinum Sheet is a big supporter in Yards Per Play. Most of our discussions have centered on the NFL, however this statistic can work in the college game as well.

Yards Per Play can work for a number of reasons, starting with a team like Missouri for example. The Tigers are led by Heisman contender Chase Daniel. With his skill and weaponry in the Missouri offense, they average 7.9 YPP. In is simplest form, the Tigers have shown the ability to create a first down every other play. Of course a number of teams would have that same ability by using that scale. But why it works for Missouri and other teams of its ilk, they have good first down gain, typically have short third down conversions to be made and make big plays that lead to points.

Here are the Top 10 teams in Yards Per Play (Regular and Spread Records)

Tulsa 6-0 4-1
Missouri 5-1 3-2
Texas Tech 6-0 2-1-1
UL-Louisiana 3-3 5-1
Oklahoma State 6-0 5-0
Arkansas State 4-2 2-3
Penn State 7-0 4-1-1
Ball State 7-0 5-0-1
Houston 3-3 2-3
Oklahoma 5-1 4-1

Total 52-10, 36-13-3 ATS

Rest assured these numbers will change since the Big 12 has four teams in the Top 10 in this category and many will face off against one another before the end of the regular season.

A question that comes to mind is will all these teams continue to be good wagers? Obviously defense, special teams and the schedule will all impact how these teams perform, however looking purely offensively, relative balance would seem to be imperative. Texas Tech is fine example. The Red Raiders passing game has been unsurpassed since Mike Leach has been the coach. For Texas Tech, 74.2 percent of their offense is generated thru the air. Now having to face stiffer competition in the Big 12, stronger defenses will try to take away the Red Raiders running game and limit the pass, making them even more one-dimensional and beatable.

Penn State seems well-suited for success, gaining able yardage per play and rushing accounting for 48.5 percent of their total yards gained and passing the rest.

What we are shown is pays well (sometimes very well) to be a multi-talented handicapper understanding several points to make you a winner. Plus, being able to do research to find hidden treasure can be worth its weight in gold.

Wagering info for Tuesday October 14

Our only official play yesterday was a winner on the trend with Cleveland. We’d like to thank Bill from Indiana for supplying us that fantastic angle. Today’s Top Trend is from the world of baseball and applies to tonight’s Game 4 contest. Our Best System is a first half play on one of Thursday night’s college football games and comes from Statfox.com. A few of the guys from the Left Coast Connection wager on the NHL and we’ll post their plays from time to time on slow days like today. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY UNDER on road teams where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 and the school is an excellent offensive team scoring 35 or more points a game, after a win by 17 or more points. BYU fits this profile for Thursday night on a system that is 25-4, 86.2 percent. This makes the play UNDER for the first half.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Tampa Bay is 1-13 against the money line in road games after scoring seven runs or more two straight games.

Free Selections -3) Eddie from the LCC bets football and hockey period. We'll give him a try with Minnesota tonight on the money line against Atlanta.

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Free Football Betting info for Columbus Day

Another good day with 2-1 record here, as Kendall missed on Oakland and was “only” 3-2 yesterday dropping him to 23-5 on the season. (Don’t we all wish we were doing this poorly) The only official play will be today’s Top Trend and it is a good one. Our system play doesn’t meet our standards, but is thought provoking on its own merit. On a personal note, I was 4-0 yesterday, hopefully I’ll get moving on all plays with momentum. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) Our Monday night system states its best to play on a team that rushed for 200 or more yards last week and won by more than seven points. This system is 16-7 ATS, 69.5 percent and is saying the Giants are the play.

Free Football Trend -2) Teams off a bye, playing at home and on the receiving end of six or more points are 24-3 ATS in this situation. That would be Cleveland tonight.

Free Selections -3) We are all over the place from our members of the Left Coast Connection, but here is what the majority of these guys are doing today. On the basepaths the Dodgers and Red Sox are the choices and Cleveland in the NFL. None of these plays will be rated by our standards.

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NFL Wagering Info from 3Daily Winners

It was one heck a day at 3Daily Winners and in fact a great college football week. Yesterday, all three of our selections were correct and if you review Friday’s system and trend we ended up 5-0, love to see those kind of numbers. Let’s try and do it again. Our Top System is an oldie but goodie at 85.7 percent dating back to 1983. Today’s Top Trend involves where numbers fall concerning Denver. Kendall from the Left Coast Connection is blistering bookies with a remarkable 20-3 record and has his Best Bet here today. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST all teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing six points or less last game against opponent after a loss by three or less points. In the last 25 years, this system is 24-4 ATS, 85.7 percent and suggests playing against Carolina today.

Free Football Trend -2) Denver is 0-10 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last two seasons.

Free Football Selection -3) The hottest handicapper in the NFL world we know of is Kendall at 20-3 and today his best play is on Oakland plus the points.

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Early Line Moves

For the Early Line Moves, we seek out the earliest lines and compare them on late Tuesday nights numbers to see what the so-called Line Movers do. By and large their track record is solid and dependable. Last week in college football, they were smashing 5-1 on sides and very nice 4-2 in college totals. This makes season record 28-17-1, 62.2 percent on sides and 22-12, 64.7 percent on Totals in CFB. In the NFL, they were 2-1 on sides bringing record to 9-4, 69.3 percent. On the Totals a 1-1 week makes the updated figure 6-8, 42.8 percent. This is the first time in years I’ve seen the NFL total below .500 at this point of the season. Enjoy reading and closely follow these numbers for wagering portfolio.

College Sides
South Carolina Pick to -2.5
Ce. Mich -10.5 to – 7.5
TCU -13 to -15.5
USC -25.5 to -28
Oregon -17 to -20.5
No. Carolina -5.5 to -11
Arkansas State 10.5 to 14
Flor. Int +2.5 to -2

College Totals
Troy/FAU 50 to 54 Lost
Mich. St/North 44 to 47
NM St./Nevada 64 to 67
BG/Akron 48.5 to 51.5
LSU/Flor. 49.5 to 46
Tulane/UTEP 55 to 58

NFL Sides
Indianapolis -6.5 to -4
Tampa Bay -3 to -1.5
Seattle +1 to -1

NFL Totals
Cin/NYJ 46.5 to 44.5
Det/Minn 47 to 45
Phil/SF 45 to 42.5
NE/SD 47 to 44.5

LSU vs Florida - You decide

We would love to have your opinion on tonight's Florida and LSU contest. Just click on the comment link and give us your thoughts.

More College Football Betting Material

Wrapped around a big Saturday of college football are a number of other important contests on the wagering docket. Among the monster matchups is Oklahoma State visiting Missouri in a battle of unbeaten Big 12 teams. The Big 10 has two big games with Michigan State playing at unbeaten Northwestern in afternoon action and Penn State making the journey to Madison to take on Wisconsin at night. No matter who starts at quarterback for either team, USC is large favorite over Arizona State. Click here to read more.

College Football Wagering Info

Our only play was incredible loss, as Louisville covered the spread with kickoff return, blocked field goal and fumble recovery, all for touchdowns. I’ll take my chances each time with a team like Memphis that out-gains the opponent 481-299. Just plain bad luck. Let’s turn out attention to what might go right today, like our Top System that is 26-4 ATS. We actually have 2 Top Trends and both involve the same game. An LLC member on a hot streak has an SEC Top Play today. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) Today’s Red River Rivalry shows to PLAY AGAINST Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points, off a road blowout win by 28 points or more, and undefeated on the season. This system is 26-4, 86.7 percent dating all the way back to 1992 and suggests playing Texas.

Free Football Trends -2) Two Trends actually collide pointing toward the same direction. Utah is 9-0 ATS after a game where they forced one or less turnovers over the last three seasons and their opponent Wyoming is 0-9 ATS after two or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last two years.

Free Football Selection -3) A member of the Left Coast Connection goes about his business and prefers not to be named and is on 11-2 run in college football and has South Carolina as his top play today.

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Oklahoma vs Texas

Without a doubt the biggest game this week is a familiar one, having been renamed the Red River Rivalry. Once again both bring in vast amounts of talented players, who are well-coached and primed for such a contest. Oklahoma arrives wearing the crown of number one after Baylor battering 49-17. Behind Sam Bradford, the Sooners are one of the most prolific scoring teams in the country, averaging 49.6 points per game. Bradford continues to be one of the most accurate chuckers of the pigskin in the country. The only time the sophomore ever has problems is when heavy pressure gets after him. This will be the assignment of Texas’ defensive front to make Bradford hesitant. Oklahoma is 11-7-1 ATS versus ranked teams in neutral settings.

The Texas defense is showing they are indeed a much more aggressive group under first-year coordinator Will Muschamp, who has the Texas defenders meeting at the quarterback this season. "We've been doing a good job all season," Muschamp said. "I kept telling the guys not to worry about sacks, because we were getting to the quarterback. I told them the sacks would come."

Quarterback Colt McCoy has been a more polished performer as a junior and will start garnering Heisman consideration if he keeps playing this well. Besides his usual pinpoint accuracy, McCoy has been a very effective runner, maybe too effective. Coach Mack Brown needs to find a ball-carrier that can carry the load and let McCoy not feel he has to do everything. Texas is only 2-8 ATS playing Top 10 teams at neutral sites.

This will not be the week for either team to be even slightly off their game. Media types questioned if Texas would look ahead playing a fair Colorado club on the road, and they waxed them 38-14. The Longhorns are outscoring teams by 35.8 points a game and are 21-8 ATS off two or more consecutive games playing Over the Total.

In much the same manner, Oklahoma has been completely dominant, also winning by 35.8 PPG. The only hiccup the Sooners have had was against TCU, gaining only 25 net yards on the ground, however were able to fully exploit the Horned Frogs secondary, passing for a season high 411 yards. Coach Bob Stoops club is 9-1 ATS after out-gaining the opposition by 125 or more total yards in two consecutive games.

Bookmaker.com has Oklahoma as 6.5-point favorites in Dallas with a total of 55.5. Besides the obvious intrigue of the Big 12 battle, the total shows quite a contrast between the two contestants. The Longhorns are 13-1 OVER after out-rushing opponent by 100 or more yards in three straight games, while Boomer Sooner is 9-1 UNDER on a neutral field where the total is between 52.5 and 56.

Oklahoma is the more complete team in this tussle and has won six of last eight, including 28-21 last season. When these Big 12 schools compete, many times the games are competitive, though not necessarily close, with nine of the last 10 decided by double digits. With Texas the underdog, bettors might take heed the dog is 13-7 ATS when these two collide. The winner has gone on to the Big 12 South title nine of 12 years.

Kickoff is at appropriately at high noon Eastern on ABC.

Friday Football Plays and Advise

I’d like to make a public apology to people that have signed up for my Free Plays. Yesterday I gave out a 2* play on Clemson. It’s not the fact they lost that bothers me, but how I came to that conclusion. Among the various publications I write for is the Platinum Sheet. It’s a sports betting tip sheet and in there I make picks for the NFL and college football. In this issue I had Wake Forest as one of my five Best Bets, based on the games we could select from. We have to submit these Monday morning for publication deadline. When I went and studied the numbers, honestly, I didn’t like the game either way and still preferred Wake Forest based on the same reasoning I had chosen them for the tip sheet. As the days wore on, smart bettors I talk to were all on Clemson for more reasons than I want to take the time to explain. I went back and looked at numbers and didn’t see any reason why my thinking was wrong. After literally over 30 people I respect told me the Tigers were the play, I convinced myself that I was the one who was wrong and changed my mind strong enough to make it play. When I saw how the line moved by game time I already knew I was beaten.

In the end, it should have been Wake or no play. Follow the wisdom of Yogi Berra who said, “You know what you know”. This won’t happen again this year. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Tulane in conference games, off an upset loss as a double digit home favorite. This system clicks along at a very comfortable 24-3, 88.9 percent the last decade, including picking up two wins already this season.

Free Football Trend -2) The Air Force is 9-0 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the last two seasons.

Free Football Selection -3) The Consensus from the Left Coast Connection is backing Memphis and I’ll agree for this very reason. I understand it’s not wise to back terrible defensive underdogs of the Tigers; however I have something that makes me overlook that fact. This is Louisville’s first road game and teams that hit the road for the first time on their fifth contest are 9-18-1 ATS when favored or a pick.

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American League Series Preview

If familiarity breeds contempt, than this has the making of a special American League pennant series. Start with the fact these are division partners, hard to call them rivals until this year with the history of the two clubs. In the first 13 games between these teams, the home team won every time. Tampa Bay finally broke the string on Sept. 9 in Boston and won the next day also, winning a series in Beantown for the first time in their existence (1-23-2). Later in the month, the Red Sox won for the first time in Tampa and many believed this is where they would roll past the Rays and win the division, instead Joe Maddon’s young team stood up and won the next two games, effectively holding serve and later captured the AL East crown.

Having seen how well Tampa Bay played all year, it’s easy to forget how incredibly bad this franchise has been since its inception, thus a little history lesson. Until this year, Tampa Bay had never been above .500; in fact they had never won 71 games in a season. Just two seasons ago, the Rays tied the major league record (Philadelphia Athletics 1943) for fewest road wins after July 1, winning three times in last 39 games played. On top of that, they led the major leagues in the number of leads blown with 94 and set a new American League record by losing 60 games that they had led. The Rays led in 121 games, but won only 61. Based on its putrid past and playing in baseball’s toughest division, Tampa had about as much chance of winning the AL East as the world’s fattest man getting married (he is).

The Boston Red Sox are the best example of what a well run organization looks like in baseball today. The Boston Red Sox were New England’s version of the Chicago Cubs for decades. The “Sox” had several close calls over the years to be World Series champions, but in the end, always came up short. That was until 2004, with a new ownership group in place, Red Sox management took what appeared to be huge risk in hiring 28-year old Theo Epstein to be their general manager the prior year. Epstein and the rest of the franchise put a plan together to play a certain style of baseball and trade away players that didn’t fit or trade for those that did. The farm system was immediately revamped to reflect this culture and in short, this has worked to near perfection with two World Series titles in four years.

These two teams had a pretty good baseball fight in June, by the sports standards and bad blood was spilled at least verbally by both teams. Daisuke Matsuzaka (18-3, 2.97) will pitch Game 1 in Tampa, mostly because how well he has pitched on the road with 9-0 record and Boston winning 11 of his 13 starts. Josh Beckett (14-12, 4-12) will follow, with Red Sox manager Terry Francona saying Beckett is healthy and was just rusty against Los Angeles. Back home, baseball’s best postseason starting pitcher of late Jon Lester (17-6, 3.01) will go and Tim Wakefield (10-11, 4.13) will start Game 4.

Manager Maddon will go with the rotation he had for the ALDS, with James Shields (15-8, 3.58) leading off at Tropicana Field, where he and Rays are 15-3 this year. Left-hander Scott Kazmir (13-8, 3.48) is next being their most experienced member on the staff. When they travel to Boston, Matt Garza (11-10 3.82) will start Game 3 despite being 4-7 on the road. Andy Sonnanstine (14-9, 4.34) will complete the initial go-round.

My Take: Because Boston is so patient at the plate, their approach can be demoralizing to competitors, ask the Angels about the number of two strike hits and two out runs the Red Sox scored in the ALDS. Because Tampa Bay pitchers don’t have overpowering stuff other than Kazmir, Boston will have their chances if they continue same approach. Tampa Bay actually is similar to the Red Sox in how they work at the plate, with a high walk total. The Rays hit more home runs and can make things happen on the base paths with 142 steals this year.

The Red Sox are tough, intelligent team that understands how to win. Their starting pitching beyond Matsuzaka and Lester is a question mark coming into this series. Will Tampa Bay’s youth catch up to them? This team is no fluke and with a couple of guys hitting home runs like B.J. Upton or Evan Longoria, anything becomes possible. Tampa Bay won the season series 10-8, however the “been there, done that” approach of Boston wins out in a long series.

Series odds from Bookmaker.com: Boston -133, Tampa Bay +113

Friday October 10
Boston (Matsuzaka) at Tampa Bay (Shields) 8:37 EDT

Saturday October 11
Boston (Beckett) at Tampa Bay (Kazmir) 8:07 EDT

Monday October 13
Tampa Bay (Garza) at Boston (Lester) 4:37 EDT

Tuesday October 14
Tampa Bay (Sonnanstine) at Boston (Wakefield) 8:37 EDT

Thursday October 16
Tampa Bay at Boston if necessary

Saturday October 18
Boston at Tampa Bay if necessary

Sunday October 19
Boston at Tampa Bay if necessary


Offensive – American League
Runs scored -Boston 2nd Tampa Bay 9th
Home Runs -Boston 6th Tampa Bay 5th
Total Bases -Boston 4th Tampa Bay 8th
Slugging Ptc. -Boston 3rd Tampa Bay8th
Walks -Boston 7th Tampa Bay 2nd
On base Ptc. -Boston 1st Tampa Bay 5th

Pitching & Defense
ERA -Boston 4th Tampa Bay 2nd
Strikeouts -Boston 1st Tampa Bay 3rd
Walks -Boston 6th Tampa Bay 8th
On base Ptc. -Boston 4th Tampa Bay 2nd
Putouts -Boston 5th Tampa Bay 1st
Errors -Boston 3rd Tampa Bay 4th

October 9 Sports Betting Information

That was an odd couple of days of almost no sports; thank goodness that’s over. At least was able to catch up on few things I had got behind on in terms of information. We have a very good System play and Top Trend to think about this upcoming weekend in the NFL for today. Our top guy Sal from the Left Coast Connection has made two wagers on the MLB series, see whom he choose to win. Special Note - Clemson has gone from +2.5 point underdog to one point favorite today alone. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY UNDER on any team like Arizona against the total after beating the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game, being a team with 60% to 75% winning percentage, playing a team with a winning record. This system is 27-6, 81.8 percent over the last decade. Consider the total for Cowboys and Cards.

Free Football Trend -2) The New Orleans Saints are 1-16 ATS as home favorite of more than two points off a loss and non-cover and the total is 42 or more points.

Free Baseball Selections -3) Sal our baseball guru has bet the Dodgers and the Red Sox to win their respective series.

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National League Series Preview

Postseason baseball has changed dramatically over the last several years. In the past, normally the best team in each league would advance to the World Series and the favored team would win more often than not or the occasional upset would occur. Presently, those days are more gone than the thought of one’s house increasing in value. In today’s modern playoff baseball it’s similar to most people’s outlook on life, “What have you done for me lately?”

The Los Angeles Dodgers took a calculated risk in trading for Manny Ramirez, hoping the talented, yet eccentric player could ignite a clubhouse that was as exciting as trip through a McDonald’s drive-thru. Ramirez proved to the lightning rod, showing his teammates how to be a professional baseball player in terms of preparation, yet having fun and being just wacky enough he could fit right in at Venice Beach. The Dodgers so outplayed the Cubs, you would have thought they won 97 games during the regular season and are since September 6, are 22-8.

While the Chicago Cubs have spent a century not being a very good baseball team, the Philadelphia Phillies have not exactly been stuffing their trophy case with championship hardware. Since first becoming a big league franchise in 1883 (Chester Arthur was President) the Phillies went 97 years before being World Series champions in 1980 and the newest streak is up to a mere 27 years. Philadelphia was barely given credit for winning the NL East a year ago, winning it on the last day of the regular season thanks to the New York Mets collapse and being swept quickly in three games by Colorado. This season the Phillies had many peaks and valleys, yet at crunch time, they were tough. With the series win over Milwaukee, the Phils are on 16-4 run-out.

To win this series, Los Angeles needs to play to its tactical edges. With Rafael Furcal and Russell Martin on-base at the top of the lineup, Manny Ramirez creates fear as a RBI-machine. When Manny either gets a hit or is semi-intentionally walked, this gives James Loney and Andre Ethier a chance to finish off a big inning. The Dodgers bullpen has been as steady as Amy Winehouse, but reliever Jonathan Broxton as been anchor of late. After Cole Hamels, the Dodgers have the next three starters in the NLCS with starters Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley and Hiroki Kuroda.

Having won 16 of 20, the Philadelphia offense receives a great deal of credit. The real secret to this winning stretch has been the pitching. In their last 20 games, the Phillies have allowed more than four runs just three times, keeping them in games the offense can win. Having home field advantage in the series, the Phils must show patience at the dish. The Dodgers and Philly bullpens have similar ERA’s at 3.34 and 3.21 respectively; however the Dodgers are nearly a full run higher on the road. Chase Utley and his teammates need to go deep into counts, piling up Dodgers pitch counts and takes hacks the L.A. bullpen.

3DW Take – If good pitching stops good hitting, than the edge has to go to the Dodgers. Joe Torre can run out three starters all capable of winning each game and a case can be made in Lowe’s favor in the opener, being 40-20 vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game on the season. (Team’s Record) It’s difficult to gauge Dodgers mediocre road record on the season, as this is a different team. In order to win the series, Philadelphia is going to need two wins on the days Brett Myers and Jamie Moyer pitch and not sure that will happen. Home field has meant everything between these two teams, each sweeping a four game series this season. Slight edge to the Dodgers to advance.


Series odds from Sportbook.com: Dodgers -110, Phillies -110

Thursday October 9
L.A. Dodgers (Lowe) at Philadelphia (Hamels) 8:22 EDT

Friday October 10
L.A. Dodgers (Billingsley) at Philadelphia (Myers) 4:35 EDT

Saturday October 12
Philadelphia (Moyer) at L.A. Dodgers (Kuroda) 8:22 EDT

Sunday October 13
Philadelphia () at L.A. Dodgers () 8:22 EDT

Tuesday October 15
Philadelphia at L.A. Dodgers if necessary

Thursday October 17
L.A. Dodgers at Philadelphia if necessary

Friday October 18
L.A. Dodgers at Philadelphia if necessary



Offensive – National League
Runs scored -Dodgers 13th Philadelphia 3rd
Home Runs -Dodgers 13th Philadelphia 1st
Total Bases -Dodgers 13th Philadelphia 3rd
Slugging Ptc. -Dodgers 13th Philadelphia 2nd
Walks -Dodgers 11th Philadelphia 5th
On base Ptc. -Dodgers 6th Philadelphia 7th

Pitching & Defense
ERA -Dodgers 1st Philadelphia 4th
Strikeouts -Dodgers 5th Philadelphia 11th
Walks -Dodgers 2nd Philadelphia 6th
On base Ptc. -Dodgers 1st Philadelphia 6th
Putouts -Dodgers 9th Philadelphia 7th
Errors -Dodgers 10th Philadelphia 5th