College Football Game Writeups

The college football landscape is dotted with landmines this week. Alabama takes its number one ranking to Baton Rouge, with LSU lying in wait to ruin their unblemished record. Texas Tech is second in the BCS standings, but might have an even tougher opponent in Oklahoma State this week. Penn State got passed by in the rankings last week and has what could be their last chance to lose in the regular season traveling to Iowa City. All USC can do is wallop Pac-10 teams and hope those higher than them happen to lose, as they host California this week. In the ACC, anything is possible and Virginia and Wake Forest play in an elimination game. The All lines shown are from Bookmaker.com.

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech

After last week’s spine-tingling upset of number one Texas, its right back into the Big 12 grinder for Texas Tech. Red Raiders quarterback Graham Harrell had trouble being noticed nationally until last week, playing in a conference stocked with quality throwers. What makes this Texas Tech team better is the little things that go unnoticed. Running back Shannon Woods is an effective runner, but where he helps his team as much if not more is picking up blitzes to keep Harrell upright and give him that split second longer to deliver the pigskin. Click here to continue.

Early Football Line Moves

For the Early Line Moves, we seek out the earliest lines and compare them on late Tuesday nights numbers to see what the so-called Line Movers do. Last week in college football these plays were ordinary 3-3 on the sides and 3-5 in college totals. This makes season record 45-30-2, 60 percent on sides and 32-23, 58.1 percent on Totals in CFB. In the NFL, they were 1-0 on sides bringing the record to 12-9, 57.1 percent. On the Totals they were quality 2-1 (11-3-1 the last month) making the updated figure 17-11-1, 60.7 percent. Enjoy reading and closely follow these numbers for wagering portfolio.

College Sides
TCU +1 to -2 Lost
Nevada +2 to -1 Winner
Duke -5.5 to -3.5
South Carolina -11 to -13
Boise State -31.5 to -34
Oklahoma -25 to -27.5
Nebraska +2 to -1
Texas -24 to -27
USC -18.5 to -21

College Totals
Pur/Mich St. 49 to 50
Illini/W. Mich 63 to 60
N.C. State/Duke 47 to 49
OK St./TT 73.5 to 69
Army/Rice 61 to 58
ISU/Colo 53 to 50
K-State/Misso 74 to 70
Kan/Neb 69 to 64
OSU/UCLA 52.5 to 49
Bay/Tex 66 to 62.5
Ark St/FIU 51 to 48

NFL Sides
Balt -2 to Pick

NFL Totals
GB/Minn 48 to 46
NYG/Phil 45 to 43.5

College Football Wagering Answers

Nice job by the Left Coast Connection with two Free Winners on Friday with Nevada and Atlanta Hawks. Greg of the LLC has hit seven straight winners in college football, he has four plays riding today and gives us his best Bet. A pair of plays out of one College Football System that is 26-2, 92.9 percent. We revisit a Top Trend we used earlier this season, which is still 100 percent accurate. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points off a road win, when playing on a Saturday. This incredible system is 26-2 ATS (not a typo) 92.9 percent, including 2-0 this season. The qualifying teams are Kentucky and Northwestern.

Free Football Trend -2) Oklahoma State is 13-0 ATS after scoring 50 points or more last game.

Free Football Selection -3) Greg has hit seven college football games in a row and is using South Carolina as his best play for Saturday.

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Thursday's Top Wagering Information

Officially a 1-2 day, though certain many of you got a push with San Antonio unless you wagered about 2.5 hours or less before game time. The Top System was a winner and delves into the latter season NFL games on Thursday night with an 82.3 percent system. Had never seen so many Left Coast Connection players be so wrong on a game like NIU/Ball State (count me among the fools) we’ll see what they have to offer. Today’s Top Trend has a dandy in the world of hockey. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON favorites like the Cleveland Browns that off a home loss, in weeks 10 through 13. This system is 14-3 ATS, 82.3 percent the last three years, with average margin of victory 8.8 points a game.

Free Hockey Trend -2) The Vancouver Canucks are 11-1 against the money line off a win by four or more goals.

Free Football Selection 3) – Greg of the LLC was the only guy from the group on Ball State last night and is playing Utah tonight. His logic consists of taking the pointspread and making it a neutral field matchup. Last night, the line showed him Ball State would have been 6.5 point favorite on a neutral field by the line (-9.5 minus 3 for home field = -6.5) and he had them as nine points better, plus the home field. Tonight using the same logic, Utah has a four point home advantage, meaning TCU is six points better than Utah (take away home field and add two points for spread) and he has TCU only three points better and Utah has home field edge.

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Mountain West Big Betting Matchup

Both Mountain West front-runners TCU and Utah are off treacherous road games and meet in one what is the biggest game to date in the conference. This is Act Two in what is supposed to be a trilogy; however a bunch of Horned Frogs could turn Act 3 into dinner theater at Holiday Inn at Salt Lake City. A whole group of Utes will have something to say about this, seeing they are the team that has come to this point unscathed and should be ornerier than a Utah ski resort owner waiting for the first snow fall, being a home underdog in this meaningful matchup.

Utah (9-0, 4-4 ATS) sneaked by New Mexico 13-10 as 7.5-point favorites, in spite of a -2 turnover margin. The Utes has been guided all season by the steadiness of senior quarterback Brian Johnson, as he has led Utah to better than 400 yards total offense and kept mistakes to a minimum. His ability to stay away from those momentum-changing plays will be critical in showdowns against TCU (9-1, 7-2 ATS) tonight and BYU later in the month. Two big differences this year compared to the last few for coach Kyle Whittingham. Wide receiver David Reed has given Utah a speed element it has lacked, that element seems to have opened up the rest of the offensive attack. When he's in the game, defenses have to pay attention. This year’s defense has been ranked in the Top 10 in yards allowed almost all season and has given up just 266.2 yards per game. Utah is 6-0 ATS in home games in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.

The Texas Christian defense is the one of best in the country. They are second behind USC in total defense, allowing 214.5 yards per game. The Horned Frogs are third in the nation in points allowed (10.8 per game) and in seven different games they have allowed seven points or less and only in three games has the opposition managed to score two or more touchdowns. They are a wrecking crew (with apologies to Texas A&M) against the run, holding the opposition to 38.9 net rushing yards and 1.4 yards per attempt, easily both the best in the FBS football.
TCU is 14-4 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in two straight games.

Offensively, the Horned Frogs continue to improve, led by quarterback Andy Dalton. Some believed their assignment at UNLV might be a challenge, however the rubbed-out the Rebels 44-14. TCU has long been noted for its prowess rushing the ball and this season is no different at over 224 yards rushing a game. Dalton has found a receiver he really works well with in Jimmy Young. With the team flat against Wyoming recently and not running the ball well, Dalton and Young connected five times for a school-record 226 yards and three touchdowns to propel TCU to victory. They are 11-3 ATS after out-gaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game.

Bookmaker.com has TCU as two-point favorite, up from opening number of -1, with total of 43. As the Horned Frogs proved against BYU, they will have a huge speed advantage. Their defense has blazing athlete’s at all 11 positions and their defensive front in ferocious in rushing the passer. Utah is only average in pass blocking, which could lead to big problems against a team that is 9-0 ATS off two wins against Mountain West rivals.

It would not be wise to sell Utah short. They have won 10 in a row dating back to last season and 17 of 18. They have won nine in a row (5-3 ATS) at Rice-Eccles Stadium and TCU coach Gary Patterson understands how good Utah is. “You always want to play in the big arena,” Patterson said. “Utah is a good football team - lot better at home. We’ve got a lot of work to do. We have to get everyone healed up and ready to go.” The Horned Frogs are just 4-8-1 ATS in November road games.

Utah is 4-1 SU and ATS versus TCU and has the home field advantage. Don’t expect many points unless there are several turnovers, since these teams have only combined for 39 points per game in their meetings. If the game is close the Utes have edge with kicker Louie Sakoda.

CBS College Sports has the broadcasting rights to this contest which starts at 8 Eastern. Utah is 11-3, but just 7-6 ATS on weekdays games since 2003; however are home underdog for just the third time in a decade and are 3-0 ATS.

Looking in Rearview Mirror Betting the NFL

The Buffalo Bills have lost three of their last four games and only covered two of last six contests. Opening the season 4-0 is looking a lot less impressive, considering the four victims were Seattle, Jacksonville, Oakland and St. Louis. The NFL has few secrets and teams have to adjust quickly once figured out. Opponents have determined the best way to stifle Bills offense. The Bills had a number of big plays with receiver Lee Evans, however defenses have started double-teaming him, focus on stopping the running game on early downs and man up on short passing game. Until the Buffalo coaching staff finds ways to adjust, hard to back the Bills.

East of Dallas, their might not be a more disappointing team in football than Jacksonville. This was supposed to be breakout season. The Jaguars are believed to be a physical running team, yet are 17th in rushing and 19th in stopping the run. They reached rock bottom is losing to Cincinnati last week as Cedric (Evinrude) Benson rushed for 104 yards, that’s right boat boy got a hundred plus. Jacksonville spent a lot of money on upgrading secondary, it hasn’t worked and the Jaguars are going nowhere in the AFC South.

Watching Dallas get whacked by the Giants, the thought occurred Brad Johnson should have retired at halftime. Tony Romo is far from the only problem with the Cowboys, as the offensive line is playing horrible considering the talent. Dallas is 3-11 ATS since last December and counting.

Looking at the schedule from opponent’s ability, Detroit has a shot at 0-16. Though it is unlikely to happen, they will be an underdog by a minimum of three points in any given game the rest of the year. The Lions have covered three of last four and will play five home games the rest of the way.

The Oakland Raiders, what a sorry franchise. Al Davis spent all kinds of money overpaying for free agents and since another season is being flushed, now he’s going to dump some of them so not to have to pay scheduled bonuses in the off-season. He’s like the guy in the commercial who buys the painting and wants to turn around and sell it. Lane Kiffen at least left with his sanity. Al, it’s time to step away, you are legend in the AFL and NFL, turn the reigns over and let somebody rebuild this team to when Pride and Poise actually meant something.

Quick Outs- Brady Quinn gets to start in Cleveland; will it matter if your best receiver keeps dropping touchdown passes?

The Baltimore defense was supposed to be great again, but rookies Joe Flacco and Ray Rice are two of the big reasons for the Ravens being 6-2 and 5-3 against the spread. Wonders never cease in the NFL.

By the end of Week 10, the Arizona Cardinals could have as big a divisional lead as the Tennessee Titans. Based on the past, Arizona is about as safe a bet as a 10-team parlay, yet the competition is so meager, they almost but can’t help but win the NFC West. The Cardinals still have to make two trips back East to Philadelphia and New England, however earning the number two position in the NFC is not out of the range of possibilities. As has been stated here several times this season, given time, Kurt Warner is still a Top 5 quarterback in the NFL.

With the current state of the Denver Broncos, is a 3-5 San Diego squad in the best position to win the AFC West?

I used to follow this all the time and started again. Take the top and bottom four teams in scoring average in each conference. When any two teams of the higher scoring teams play each other, play OVER and when the lower scoring teams play one another play UNDER. I let each team have somewhat of a track record, thus started with week five. The year to date record is 7-2 against the total.

Touchdown favorites in the NFL continue to be a lousy wager with a 14-16 ATS record and home underdogs are even worse at 15-21 against the spread.

Late Season Betting on Ranked Teams

The other day had a conversation with a close friend and we were talking about the good old days. Among the topics of discussion were our gambling exploits from years ago. We laughed talking about all the cash we made just following certain teams late in the year. It seemed (the years make the memories fuzzy) no matter if we having a bad year, a great year or just ordinary in progress, we always cashed big late in the season.

Tennessee was a team we made a mint on, since they were always peaking at the end of the season and played several weak teams in those days to close the year, often covering the bookie’s number by two touchdowns or more. Florida State in their prime under Bobby Bowden was another, more in their Independent days and the early years of being a member of the ACC.

Their were other gift spots we knew about, like playing against Notre Dame no matter how good they were (that’s been awhile) in the last home game or a number of Georgia/Georgia Tech and South Carolina/ Clemson games when the home team it seemed never covered.

After laughing ourselves silly thinking about how he once gave a guy 54-points and Kansas (if memory serves correct) against Oklahoma, with the Sooners covering 62-7 for a few Ben Franklin’s, our discussion turned to betting on ranked teams late in the season. He believed ranked teams were good at home and bad on the road.

His rationale was as long as a team was of quality to be highly ranked late in the season; they should be a good bet at 21 or fewer points. Any pointspread above 21 the team has to be playing extremely well or the opponent so bad, the favorite can’t help but win and be very close to covering the number.

Ranked teams on the road were dicier, starting with the fact they’re favored about 80 percent of the time. A home underdog can make their season late in the year with an upset. These can be very dangerous opponents, especially ones that have the ability to score points, since they can feed off the momentum of the crowd and often play over their heads. Additionally he noted, the coaches and players of ranked teams on the road are probably still playing for some conference positioning and will get tight if pushed by lesser foe.

All this talked about ranked teams late in the year, led to research to determine answers. Here are the three questions that were formulated to be answered.

1) How do ranked teams perform in the last three games of the regular season?

2) How do ranked teams perform at home?

3) How do ranked teams perform on the road?

The answers were to be determined both straight up and seeing this is tip sheet is information driven for sports bettors, how the teams do against the spread.

The answer to the first question was slightly surprising on a couple of points. Of the 293 games played by ranked teams over the last five years (2003-07) in the last three weeks of the season, the Top 25 teams are 224-69, 76.4 percent. What was mildly surprising was my preconceived notion these schools actually won more frequently, closer to 80 percent. When thinking about it more, the number made more sense, as like anyone; you tend to think about the top end, not the bottom. Any team ranked #18-25, likely has a couple of losses or plays in a weaker conference and is more vulnerable to being defeated.

One aspect that did not catch me off-guard was the spread record of these teams. Of the 293 games, the actual record was 148-135-10 against the spread, a 52.2 percent mark, which would cause bettors to have betting accounting accounts similar to many people’s 401K plans, less than what you started with.

Let’s move along to question two, how do ranked teams play at home. This is where the numbers kind of get weird, not in a bad way, just peculiar. Home teams were 135-39 straight up 77.5 percent, almost the same percentage as the overall number, meaning ranked teams played almost the same home or away late in the year.

My friend was accurate in his belief that the elite teams in the country are a good bet at home with a 95-73-6 ATS record, good for 56.5 percent. Among the leaders carrying the torch for this group is USC at 9-0 and 7-2 ATS, Louisville at 5-0 and 4-1 ATS and Boise State at 4-0 SU and against the spread as home favorites the last five years.

I was somewhat stunned ranked teams were so good on the road at 89-30, 74.7 percent. However, when digging into the spread number, the real truth came out. With rare exception, Top 25 teams when listed as road favorites ended up being 52-62-5 ATS, a rather lousy percentage of 45.6 percent, particularly when you consider these teams won nearly three out of four games. As my pal so accurately described, ranked teams have something to play for and might be more conservative, compared to home team underdogs that can play all out with nary a reason to hold anything back.

In doing the research, two other questions came to mind. What is the outcome when both teams are ranked and does it matter if one team has a higher ranking?

The first question offered a staggering result in my opinion. When two highly ranked squads are facing off late in the year, the presumption is the home team has the edge. From a wagering perspective, the road team might offer more value since the two teams are probably fairly close in talent as most positions, at least that would be the traditional method of thinking. Here, either the more focused or relaxed visitor won 21 of 38 games played and covered the spread an astonishing 60 percent of the time at 21-14-3 ATS.

Taking it one step further, how does a higher ranked team do, no matter where the contest is held? Though most Top 25 ratings of any kind are believed superficial, they do mean a great deal to those seeking to add money to wagering accounts. The higher ranked school is 25-13 overall with an almost matching 24-13-1 against the spread record. That is good for a delectable 64.8 winning percentage. This seems contrary to the previous question, but does point out the differences in the two teams. Place two similar teams by ability on the field, each with the same motivation and willingness to perform at peak performance, the better team is without question the better wager.

In conclusion, a wise old goat like my friend has been through enough battles to understand what happens late in the year. Playing visitors when two teams are in the Top 25 is smarter than a 6th grader and forget Warren Buffet and others trying to figure out unstable stock market, buy higher ranked teams when matched versus other ranked clubs to really make money.

Three Betting Options for Wednesday

Thanks to everyone for commenting about keeping hockey plays here at 3Daily Winners. I would encourage everyone to comment as often as you like, seeing this is a blog and your voice should be heard. (in good taste of course)

Paul Buck had a great call on Dallas last night in our only play and the Left Coast Connection feels very strongly about a play in college football tonight. The San Antonio Spurs might have been losers last night, will in continue, read the Top Trend. Found a very good System in the NBA concerning Oklahoma City which is 25-4, 86.2 percent. Does Okie City feel like an expansion team to you too? Has that same weird feeling like when Charlotte moved to New Orleans.
Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points Oklahoma City in non-conference games, off a close home win by three points or less. This system is 25-4, 86.2 percent the last five years.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The San Antonio Spurs are 22-6 ATS after three straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers the last 12 years.

Free Football Selection 3) – The Left Coast Connection has 14 bettors on Northern Illinois and one on Ball State.

Need Your Opinion and other Stuff

We need your opinion. For those reading this do you want to see any hockey systems, trends or free plays? The NHL is not widely bet and even though there is often some really good material, if you don’t care, no point in having it here. Click on the "comment" below to respond.

The Top Trend Winner was the only official play for Monday, as the Clippers played as expected. I’m not a big parlay player but have had pretty good success this year blending money line plays with spread bets I really like. I limit it to three or four teams and though the payout isn’t as good as straight parlay (using spread bets) the odds are more in your favor and last I heard winning isn’t bad. I should note this is mostly in college football. Here are is an exceptional system for this upcoming weekend, yielding two plays. With nothing that great in the NBA tonight, the Top Trend looks at the Rice Owls total for this next Saturday. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST road teams vs. the money line, having lost 6 or 7 out of their last eight games against opponent after having won 6 or 7 out of their last eight games. The qualifying play against teams would be Purdue and Michigan for a system that is, drum-roll, 38-1. Holy, you know, crap.

Free Football Trend -2) Rice is 17-3 OVER in all lined games over the last two years and 9-0 OVER after allowing 42 or more points.

Free Hoops Selection 3) – Paul Buck is playing Dallas tonight in the NBA. Among the reasons are the underdog is 14-2 ATS when the Mavs meet San Antonio.

Betting Material for Monday

It was a mixed bag of sorts for 3Daily Winners with a 1-2 day in the NFL Sunday and 2-3 record on the week. We ended up with four of five Winners in college football and a good week overall totaling everything up. Spoke to Kendall last night, he’s lost his best play two weeks in a row here, but keeps on winning in the NFL. He ended up 3-1, with winners on Green Bay, Cincinnati and New England, losing with the Browns. He’s still hard to comprehend 31-7. Though not an official play, we offer up a 78 percent system for Monday night. Our Top Trend is pure perfection in the NBA. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON teams like Washington that have gone five consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers against opponent like Pittsburgh after a game where they committed three or more turnovers are 32-9 ATS, 78 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The L.A. (they’ll cut themselves with their own) Clippers are 0-11 ATS revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more over the last three seasons.

Free Football Selection -3) Very interesting dynamic going tonight. The Left Coast Connection has 21 members playing tonight's Monday Night game, 13 on Washington and 8 on Pittsburgh. What makes this thought provoking is 10 of the 13 are making money betting in the NFL this season. Six of the 8 who are on the Steelers are losing money at present wagering in the NFL. Like I said, interesting.

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Monday Night Matchup - Steelers at Redskins

Washington has passed most of their previous tests, save for a final-second loss at home to the Rams in Week 6. But looking at St. Louis these days maybe that defeat isn't as bad as it originally looked. The Redskins steamrolled hapless-and still winless-Detroit, 25-17, and remains just behind the Giants in the NFC East.

Maybe owner Daniel Snyder was onto something when he hired head coach Jim Zorn despite no prior experience as a front man. It helps having the NFL's leading rusher, Clinton Portis, who added 126 yards to his total (944) against the Lions, in the same huddle. Rather than the wide-open spaces he's become accustomed to in Zorn's West Coast offense, Portis may have to take more of a bullish approach against Pittsburgh who is 33-18 ATS versus offensive teams averaging 5.65 or more yards a play.

The Steelers, ranked No. 2 in the NFL against the run (71.6 yards per game, three touchdowns), have allowed just three runners in the past 73 games to crack 100 yards. Portis has rushed for more than 120 yards in five-straight games and averages 5.0 yards per carry; opposing backs are rushing for 2.9 YPC vs. Pittsburgh. Washington is 28-12 ATS versus good rushing defenses allowing 90 or less rushing yards a game, including 2-0 against the spread this season.

Jason Campbell did complete 23 of 28 attempts for 328 yards against the Lions but can expect plenty more pressure in Pittsburgh. Much like the Giants did in Week 1, the Steelers are expected to bring the heat from all angles, and may be better at it than even the defending champs. Campbell has just three turnovers (all fumbles), but all have come within the last three games. Washington is 6-15-2 ATS after passing for more than 250 yards.

Campbell's counterpart, Ben Roethlisberger, hasn't yet clicked in offensive coordinator Bruce Arian's system and may have turned in his worst performance yet in a 21-14 loss to the Giants. He threw just one touchdown and four interceptions and absorbed five sacks. At least two of the sacks were because Roethlisberger held the ball too long, something the coaches are trying to get him to change. The Steelers 7-3 ATS off a loss.

Running back Willie Parker missed a fourth consecutive game with a knee injury, but Mewelde Moore, at one point the third-stringer, continues to prove his value and the running hasn’t fallen off as much as expected. Parker might be ready for this encounter.

Bookmaker.com has Washington as a 2.5-point choice with a total of 36.5. Pittsburgh is 17-6 UNDER in road games off an upset loss as a favorite and the Skins are 21-9 UNDER after out-gaining opposition by 150 or more total yards in their previous game.

Pittsburgh covers if they stop Portis, which they well could do since they held the Giants to just over half their average last week. The Steelers have to get after Campbell and force him to make bad choices and create turnovers. Pittsburgh’s special teams have been solid all, year, contain Washington and they improve to 28-10 ATS playing against teams with 75 win percentage or higher.

Washington covers if they can prevent the Pittsburgh linebackers from blitzing Campbell silly. The Redskins defense has only forced eight turnovers on the year, Big Ben will present opportunities, and they must cash in and create shorter fields for the offense. Attack the Steelers guards on defense, since this is the area where they have has the most problems in pass protection. Start trouble in the middle and safeties could have free shots at Roethlisberger. Pitt is 3-7 ATS on the road at teams with winning records.

No pertinent system for Monday night, however teams like Washington that have gone five consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers against opponent like Pittsburgh after a game where they committed three or more turnovers are 32-9 ATS, 78 percent.

Free Sunday Selections at 3Daily Winners

A nice 2-1 day here for Saturday, with winners on Colorado State and Texas A&M. For NFL action, we have some excellent numbers today like today’s Top System this is scintillating 94.1 percent. If you are impressed with that number try perfect 8-0 for the Top Trend. Kendall from the Left Coast Connection is 28-6, 82.6 percent in the NFL and is the best investment anywhere these days and offers his top play for Free. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON any home team that scored 24 or more points before going on its bye week and lost the game. This system is incredible 16-1, 94.1 percent and has Minnesota today, as they lost 48-41 to Chicago two weeks ago.

Free Football Trend -2) The Indianapolis Colts are 8-0 ATS after two or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last three seasons.

Free Football Selection -3) Kendall did lose last week in this space however will get a free pass here this week seeing he is eye-popping 28-6 in the NFL this season. He’s backing Cleveland to cover today.

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Early Football Line Moves

For the Early Line Moves, we seek out the earliest lines and compare them on late Tuesday nights numbers to see what the so-called Line Movers do. Last week in college football these plays were dandy 6-1 on the sides and 1-1 in college totals. This makes season record 42-27-2, 60.8 percent on sides and 29-18, 61.7 percent on Totals in CFB. In the NFL, they were 1-1 on sides bringing the record to 11-9, 55 percent. On the Totals they were excellent 4-1 (9-2-1 L3 weeks) making the updated figure 15-10-1, 60 percent. As you notice, every one of these is making money this season. Enjoy reading and closely follow these numbers for wagering portfolio.

College Sides
Bowling Green -9.5 to -7
Virginia +1.5 to -2.5
Stanford -27 to -30
Miss. State Pick to -2.5
Georgia Tech +1.5 to -2
Oregon State -9 to -14

College Totals
Buff/Ohio 51 to 48 Lost
Hou/Marsh 63 to 60.5 Winner
Duke/WF 37.5 to 40
Aub/Miss 40 to 42
Tulsa/Ark 74 to 77
Colo/Tex A&M 56 to 53
Oreg/Cal 67 to 62
UAB/USM 57 to 61

NFL Sides
N.Y. Giants -7 to -9

NFL Totals
AZ/STL 50.5 to 48
GB/Tenn 42.5 to 40.5
Miami/Den 47.5 to 49

West Texas Shootout in Lubbock

For knowledgeable college football fans, this matchup is only unexpected to the degree that both have failed to lose in 2008. Every preseason magazine had these two Big 12 teams either second or third in the South Division. Texas Tech coach Mike Leach has his most complete team during nine seasons, being able to not only pass, but run with effectiveness and a decent defense. Texas has taken the college football world by storm, with coach Mack Brown assembling a team hungry to get better weekly and unafraid of a daunting four week schedule as challenging as any team would find in college football.

From a situational standpoint, not much more Texas Tech could ask for. The Red Raiders are undefeated at 8-0 (3-2-1 ATS) after Kansas conflict, coming home to take on hated rival and #1 Texas. Passing guru Leach catches the Longhorns on the final stop of what seemed a nearly impossible four-game stretch, with this the only true road game. In a league stuffed with potent offenses, this could be the one that could case Texas the most difficulties. Quarterback Graham Harrell makes quick decisions and unleashes the ball with more velocity than typical Lubbock chucker. Having Michael Crabtree and other talented wideouts doesn’t hurt, all being able to take the pigskin long distances on the various crossing routes. The biggest change has been on the other side of the ball, where the defense can actually stop opponents, however is vulnerable to the pass ranking 98th position nationally. Texas Tech is 8-4 ATS as home underdog, but just .500 under Leach.

The legend of Colt McCoy continues to grow, with one superb performance after another. "We need to continue for him to be who he is," said Texas coach Mack Brown. "I don't know if we need him to be any better." His uncanny accuracy and decision-making is setting him apart from the pack and the newcomers that are emerging off coach Brown’s bench only add to the weaponry. The Texas defense will not be haled among the elite ranked at 44th nationally in total defense; nonetheless they make plays when they count the most in such as offensive-minded league like the Big 12. Think back how they shutdown Oklahoma in the second half and stopped high-powered Missouri until they had built a 35-0 lead.

Bookmaker.com has Texas as 3.5-point favorites, with a total of 74.5. In looking at the Total both teams have a commonality. The Horns are 21-5 OVER vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62 percent or better and the Red Raiders are 13-3 OVER vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58 percent or higher.

If anyone is looking for a defensive struggle, better find a MMA match, as this Big 12 confrontation will be about as they say in the South, Aw-fense. The Red Raiders have given up just three sacks, which Texas defense is capable of in a half. Harrell is going to have to be on target and steady. Texas Tech will have to run enough to balance the offense, and they are 15-5 ATS versus excellent rushing defenses allowing 90 or less rushing yards a game.

The Longhorns have already faced a slew of outstanding quarterbacks and won’t be overwhelmed. Their biggest advantage is they have had the best field general in each contest in McCoy and Texas Tech will have to stop him. The Texas running game has been gaining confidence and churning out more yardage with regularity. Texas has covered four of their last five road games against teams with winning records.

Texas leaves the comforts of Austin and is 4-8-1 ATS on the Big 12 road. This Texas tussle originated 80 years ago and the home team is 7-3 ATS the last decade. The favorite is 6-9 ATS in the last 15; however November is when the Horns do their best work with 19-9-2 ATS record.

Saturday Wagering Options and a slice of humble pie

3Daily Winners hoped you took advantage of Thursday’s System in the NHL which was a Winner, we told you it would be. Overall a solid 2-1 day and we look forward to Saturday college football where we have one of the best college football systems we have had all season at 25-2 against the spread. The Top Trend of the Day takes us to South Bend and taking a peek at one of my favorite coaches (not) Dave (he’s got a knee) Wannstedt. Good Luck.

I was unhappy to miss an opportunity Thursday on Cincinnati. The normal sites I check still had QB Tony Pike as doubtful for game against South Florida. 3Daily Winners gave out Cincinnati as a Free Pick at FreeSportsMonitor.com, yet was hesitant to make it an official play. I saw Pike played pretty well and Cincy won. Hate lost opportunities.

I have to give out a public apology to Paul Buck. For those that bought his play in our Waging Options page on New Orleans, no harm, no foul. At Free Sports Monitor, those buyers also got the right pick, but I messed up and hit Phoenix, when New Orleans was the play. No customers werehurt, just our record at that monitor. Sorry Paul, my bad.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points off a road win, when playing on a Saturday. This incredible system is 25-2 ATS, a whopping 92.5 percent and points to backing Colorado State.

Free Football Trend -2) Pittsburgh is 2-17 ATS off a home loss by 14 or more points the last 16 years.

Free Football Selection -3) Mark from the Left Coast Connection is on 10-2 run in college football and has Texas A&M as his best play today.

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As the Cold Winds of November blow, Know your Football Numbers

The month of November for much of the country sees thick dark low clouds become a more regular occurrence; a foreshadowing what lies ahead in the coming months. In the South and West, the days are often still sunny, but the thermometer takes a much slower climb to reach the daytime highs as the cooler nights linger much longer. Betting college football is also in transition in November. All the conference races head down the final stretch to figure out the winners. Bowl slots are determined by how teams finish in the standings, some pleased, and others not so much. The rhetoric about what teams deserve to play in the national championship game and fill the BCS bowls hits a fever pitch and upsets happen in the most unlikely places, like Pittsburgh upsetting West Virginia, spoiling their chance at the title last year.

November is not for the faint of heart, since just because a team needs to win, doesn’t mean they do. Inevitably the cream rises to the top. The very best teams hit their stride, reaching the next plateau in accomplishments. These teams are identifiable by the physical nature of which they play. The stronger teams become stronger and beat teams that are wearing down having been wearing the pads since August. Typically these squads have a solid running game and pass the ball with greater efficiency. The defense has the ability to make the opponent one-dimensional and expose their weaknesses.

The pretenders are exposed, having gotten by with an easier schedule to this point or maybe a pass defense has not been fully exploited and now faces teams that have studied the tape on them and have the ability to take advantage of their shortcomings. Another scenario that happens every November is injuries mount and no matter how well you have played and survived to this point, the reserves are just not as good and these teams lose.

For the 11th month on the calendar, trends can be very useful source since they paint a picture about the recent history of a team. That’s not to say you should trust these trends unequivocally, rather a good starting point to help formulate good a quality wager.

Certain teams have a home/ road dichotomy, playing well at home and not on the road. Two teams that fit this profile perfectly are highly ranked Oklahoma State and fellow Big 12 partner Texas A&M. The Cowboys are having a remarkable campaign under coach Mike Gundy with one of the most powerful offenses in the country. The defense continues to improve and they are set to have a great finish, especially when playing at home where Oklahoma State is 11-3-2 against the spread at Boone Pickens Stadium. What bettors have to watch out for is Okie State on the road, being 5-11-1 ATS as November visitors.

Mike Sherman was brought in to Texas A&M to turnaround the football program and the changes he has made have been sweeping, probably to the detriment of this year’s club. The offense has at least started scoring points, but the defense is slower than my uncle reaching to grab the check for dinner. With this conundrum, the Aggies are sure to add to 4-13 ATS record on the road. However, with the offense improving and with the help of the famous 12th man at College Station, backing A&M at home with 10-3-2 spread record isn’t all bad.

It always helps to accentuate the positive and large group of universities have stellar November records. You will find teams that do well at home, others on the road or they just know how to finish the regular season. A couple of MAC teams are not up to previous standards, nevertheless are worth a look this month based on the past. Miami-Ohio is 28-12 and 24-14-2 ATS since Tom Hanks won second straight Oscar for Forrest Gump. (1995). Toledo has also been a strong closer with 14-6 mark and 13-6-1 ATS record.

One team on nobody’s radar is UL-Monroe, maybe it’s time to play attention with 6-1 and 7-0 ATS record the last two years. Michigan State is another good club this month, playing the power game and they are 18-10-2 ATS in November. Let’s not forget the best team in the country, as Texas is 19-9-2 ATS to finish the regular season.

Missouri has delivered for college football bettors with 18-9 ATS road record since 1999 and Miami-Fl. have the same winning percentage with 14-7 spread mark. Mississippi State seldom attains notoriety, but delivers well on the road with 17-10-1 ATS record this month.

Though this season has been bumpy, East Carolina flourishes at home with recent 6-1 number against the linemakers. Fresno State is 7-3 ATS in raisin country and Virginia Tech before its always wildly enthusiastic fans is 17-7-1 in November contests in Blacksburg.

It can be difficult to comprehend why seemingly top notch programs don’t deliver better wagering results late in the year, especially at home. The most reliable theory is teams are comfortable playing before the home fans, lacking that edginess necessary to put away conference rivals. With the stakes usually high, the opposing teams are also fighting for conference honors or seeking to pull that last upset which could make their season. If these battles are close in the fourth quarter, the coach of the more skilled home team becomes more conservative and looks more to survive to play another day, than risk peddle to the mettle.

Unbeaten Alabama has been such a team with unsightly 4-16-2 ATS figure at home in November and fellow SEC member LSU, is right with the Crimson Tide as a home play against team with 5-16 ATS record. Despite Boston College’s continued growth and playing in the colder Northeast, they have failed to cover seven of the last nine tilts on Chestnut Hill late in the year.

Earlier, teams being exposed for playing poor defense were mentioned and UTEP fits the bill, with 5-13 record, covering the number a measly three times.

There is no shortage of road teams who fail miserably in November, take a gander.

Army 6-15 ATS
Baylor 4-13-1 ATS
Bowling Green 10-17 ATS
Kansas 4-20 ATS
Marshall 4-12 ATS
Nebraska 5-9-1 ATS
TCU 3-8-1 ATS
Wake Forest 5-15 ATS

There are other schools that flounder in November, with losing wagers go hand in hand. Tulane is 3-9 straight up and against the spread in the month where Thanksgiving resides. Florida Atlantic from the Sun Belt Conference is 4-10 ATS and New Mexico State from the WAC is whacked posting 10-19 ATS numbers. Kent State is 4-22 this month and 8-18 ATS, hardly a cause for thanksgiving, unless you are on the other side.

When it comes to the understanding college football in the last major month of the regular season, be knee-deep in knowledge supporting the right teams that will make you a winner.

3Daily Winners for Thursday

Our Free Picks were 2-0 yesterday with a couple of nice winners. We don’t want to overload you with football systems and we were going to pass on a play all together, but our friends at StatFox.com passed this hockey system along and it is awfully tempting at 23-4. We know a lot of you don’t play the NHL, but at current price, backed with this System, at the very least deserves your attention to follow. Our Top Trend involves a televised TNT game tonight and Slick Rick will try to give us another Free Winner. Good Luck.

Free Hockey System-1) PLAY ON road favorites against the money line like Ottawa, after failing to cover four of their last five against opponent who has won two of their last three contests. This system is 23-4, 85.2 percent and is also backed with Ottawa being 16-6 at Florida.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Phoenix Suns are 0-6 ATS against New Orleans.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Slick Rick of the LCC has won his first two NBA plays and goes for three in a row with Dallas tonight.

Tennessee Titans are Winning Approval

Raise your hand if you expected the Tennessee Titans to be 7-0 halfway through the 2008 NFL season.Any takers? No? I didn’t think so.

After a nationally televised handling of the almighty Indianapolis Colts on Monday Night Football, the Titans deservedly sit atop the power rankings on every prominent sports website.
Make no mistake; I knew this team would be a contender and most likely end the season with a Wild Card playoff berth. But that was with a much-improved Vince Young at the helm, scampering around making plays with his feet and being smart with his arm. If you told me journeyman Kerry Collins was going to take over this team in the second week of the season and resurrect it from the depths of mediocrity, I might have checked you into an insane asylum.

But this guy has proven to be a veteran signal caller who limits mistakes. And the way the Titans roll with the football and play defense that is all you need. Collins completes on average just over 16 passes an outing and has yet to throw for more than 200 yards in a game this season.

But again, if you’ve bought into Jeff Fisher’s ideology that is all the guy taking snaps has to do to be successful. Remember Steve McNair? Take care of the football and play smash-mouth defense. The Titans are holding opponents to a league-best 12.4 points per game and are +8 in turnover margin which also ranks tops in the NFL.

Speaking of Jeff Fisher, I am going to go ahead and slap the “mastermind” label on his forehead, right above those sunglasses he never seems to pull off. I would put him up against that grandma-headband wearing, hooded guru that stalks the sidelines of Foxboro.

Beginning his career when the Titans were the Houston Oilers back in 1994, Fisher is the longest tenured coach in the NFL with 14 consecutive seasons under his belt. He and his squad made a Super Bowl appearance in 1999 after the infamous Music City Miracle. And then who can forget receiver Kevin Dyson reaching out for the goal line just to be tackled inches short of the game-tying score against the Rams?

But this pigskin genius is only 50 years old. If you are speaking in Joe Paterno years Fisher could be coaching for 30 more seasons! And there is not an inkling of doubt in my mind that he will capture an elusive Super Bowl ring. How many is anyone’s guess.

Earlier this week Collins was quoted saying, “Players love to play for this guy.” And if they don’t or fail to buy into his philosophy then he kindly shows them the door…ahem…Adam Jones! (Side Note: How good would that defense be with Pacman locking down opposing receivers?)

But I compare Fisher to a baseball manager I have the utmost respect for - Tony LaRussa. These two leaders are able to create winners out of nobodies. They find a way to make their team successful without the bazillion dollar contracts and superstars on the field.

Think about it, the biggest name on the Titans team is Vince Young and he’s watching from the sidelines. Let me think who else we have…LenDale White…the guy who was lost in Reggie Bush’s starlight at Southern Cal. And he isn’t even the starting back with rookie speedster Chris Johnson. You are probably saying Chris…who? Albert Haynesworth may be the biggest name they have and he’s a defensive lineman!

I would like to point out a pair of cover corners that deserve to be mentioned while we’re talking Tennessee personnel - Cortland Finnegan and Nick Harper. These guys were just begging to be thrown at on Monday evening and when their number was challenged, they responded. Pass breakups, incompletions and dropped passes were the only numbers Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison saw on the stat sheet.

I’ve watched this team closely on defense and it seems like every single man knows his role and how to execute it. And defense wins championships. The offense is beginning to come around, but does it really need to? They’ve mustered 34 and 31 points in the last couple of games but don’t expect that scoring surge to continue. But it is apparent that if the Titans need to open up the passing game because teams are stacking against the run they can. Receiving space over the middle to a couple of great tight ends in Bo Scaife and Alge Crumpler is parting open like Moses through the Red Sea.

Now don’t go expecting a 16-0 regular season from this squad like we did with the Pats last year. They just don’t have the offensive firepower to do that. When they play teams that are like-minded, love to slow the game down and run the ball, Tennessee will find themselves in the losing column for the first time.

And the Titans haven't just been pleasing their fans this season either. A collection of followers scattered across the country have taken notice to not only their wins on Sunday but the team's winning margins.

Tennessee has not failed to cover a single spread this year, going 7-0 against the number. They are putting lots of cash in the pockets of those fortunate enough to bet on them week in and week out. But eventually the odds will stack high enough and the oddsmakers will adjust high enough to make the cash cow sour.

Regardless of who they are pleasing in Sin City, the Titans are in complete control of the AFC South with a four-game lead over the Colts, Jaguars and Texans who all sit at 3-4. Remember however, Fisher and the boys went 6-2 to jumpstart last season and then went on to lose four of their next five.

This was penned by Scott Cooley, a freelance writer.

Hump Day Betting Info from 3Daily Winners

Our Free Play was a Winner with Cleveland yesterday and we have a NBA play and our NHL guru who is 4-0 at Cappers Watchdog, has his strongest play of the early season today. Our Top Totals System in college football takes a gander at (turn your eyes away if you are into political correctness) the World’s Largest Cocktail Party between Florida and Georgia in Jacksonville. The Top Trend will follow the exploits of a Big 12 team hitting the road off a win. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY UNDER on all teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 after scoring and allowing 30 points or more last game against opponent after scoring 37 points or more in last game. The team that fits this profile is Georgia and this Totals system in incredible 29-3, 90.6 percent, including 4-0 record in 2008.

Free Football Trend -2) Nebraska is 2-10 ATS off a straight up home triumph.

Free Selection -3) Our hockey is 4-0 and says Dallas is the best play this month. Five different guys from the Left Coast Connection are playing Toronto +5.5.

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Phoenix still Underdog to San Antonio

It’s a new era of basketball in Phoenix, gone are days taking a shot every seven seconds from literally anywhere on the floor, to a bunch of old men (in basketball age) playing a more traditional style because the general manager believes this is how you win championships no matter the age of the team. Steve Kerr is a down to earth guy and had a long-standing relationship with majority owner Robert Sarver. Kerr evidently sounded so smart on TV as a broadcaster; Sarver decided he was the best man to run his franchise.

The biggest problem the Suns have is playing four quarters a night against Father Time. New coach Terry Porter has talked about how this team will stress defense. As the season starts, Shaquille O’Neal is 36-years old and Steve Nash is 34. Having never memorized the NBA’s all-defensive team over the last 12-years or more, pretty sure these were not two names that appeared when they were in their prime, let alone as setting-Suns. Raja Bell was a terrific defender for most of his career, however last season showed a significant decline or he was just fed up with being the only player in an orange uniform attempting to play any defense.

Though Amare Stoudemire’s game really shined free of the duties of playing center, don’t think he has a free pass to play power forward all season. Suns insiders have quietly spoken internally about the Big Cactus (Shaq) playing around 60 games if he can stay healthy (unlikely), suggesting Stoudemire will seen plenty of time in the paint.

At least the Suns will have a legitimate back-up point guard in first-year guard Goran Dragic to back up Nash, allowing Leandro Barbosa (Beep-Beep) to run around like he’s crazy, effective one night and not the next.

For years Phoenix has had this obsession about San Antonio, since they always believed they were nearly as good and just needed a few breaks. The fact is the Suns have never been as good, as the playoffs have proven and it has been true in the regular season also. Since the beginning of the 2002-03 season, the Spurs have whipped Phoenix like Indiana Jones carrying around his favorite apparatus, winning nine of 12-games at home (5-6-1 ATS).

Though there is no truth to the rumors about San Antonio players getting BOTOX treatments, they are still the oldest team in the league. They will start the season without one of their star players in Manu Ginobili, who had surgery on his left ankle in September and could be sidelined until December.

Still the Spurs players are comfortable in their normal routines and like being grumpy old men. “We have a proven system. We have a proven bunch of guys,” said Tim Duncan, who begins his 12th season. “And we like our chances.”

Bookmaker.com has the Spurs as two-point favorites with a total of 187.5. This is not an area San Antonio has thrived; being 6-16 ATS last season when the line is +3 to -3.

ESPN will have initial NBA telecast starting at 8 Eastern, with the NBA season only being slightly less time then a presidential campaign.

Thoughts courtesy of Red Wydley.