Getting Ready for Wagering Weekend

Came back with a winning 2-1 mark and prepare for a big sports weekend. Our Best Trend looks in the NBA with a dysfunctional team that still manages to cover spreads. Jason of the Left Coast Connection returns on a real streak and gives us his Best Bet for Friday. No outstanding systems in sports today, thus we’ll supply a rare NFL Totals system for Sunday. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY UNDER on home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points, off two consecutive road losses, with a winning record on the season. Tampa Bay is the qualifying team and this totals system is 22-4, 84.6 percent, dating back 25 years for this extremely rare play.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The New York Knicks are 11-1 ATS after playing three consecutive games as an underdog this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Jason from the LLC did not do very well in football this season and started poorly in basketball. To his credit, he kept fighting and retuned some of his methods and over the last 5 days is 24-9, 72.7 percent in all his wagers. He loves the Detroit Pistons and went large on them.

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Making a Case for Betting Good College Hoops Teams

Last week I wrote an article about an easy method to handicapping the National Basketball Association. It is so easy, you don’t even have to be smarter than a fifth grader to do it (I have to give one of my favorite TV shows a free plug in a round about way). Speaking of the Jeff Foxworthy-hosted show on Fox, Friday’s at 8:00, my favorite question I have seen a contestant answer incorrectly was “What ocean is named after India”? Not quite as easy of question as “What state is named after the Mississippi River, but very close. The poor guy, I believe he was an accountant from Toledo, had used up all of his “lifelines” of help so he was stuck coming up with the answer himself. After a considerable amount of thinking coupled with stammering, he responded with “the Bay of Bombay”. How would you like that guy doing your taxes?

Regarding the NBA handicapping article, I had some readers question me if this simplistic method I wrote about was also good for handicapping college basketball games. If you didn’t see the article, the basic premise was to place your bets on teams with winning straight-up records as compared to losing teams. There was a distinct correlation of cashing tickets by sticking to teams with the better straight-up record and staying away from the bottom dwellers.

In college hoops, with having over 200 regularly lined-teams playing 25 to 40 games a season, I went about looking at this methodology a little differently than how I did it for the NBA with its 30 teams. I wanted to keep it very basic but needed to keep the qualifying data set somewhat small.

I felt a good way to reduce risk would be to take a look at teams who have covered the point spread at a good rate over each of the past four years and see if I can uncover any gems that will help me win. While I do believe in longer-term views as for uncovering trends and tendencies, I do also believe that each sport evolves and changes from year to year.

I went to the StatFox website where they have the best collection and history of college basketball statistics that I have ever seen available on the Internet. If you have never been to the StatFox website and you love statistics, you will be making this site a regular stop when you see what’s available. And, even more importantly, the numbers are sortable. They don’t just put up the top 25 or the top fifty in a category, they have all lined teams with virtually any statistic you would want to follow. Statfox.com is one of the best tools any handicapper can utilize no matter what sport they are handicapping. And the greatest thing about it, the StatFox site is entirely free!

I went to the team report page and sorted the teams by their ATS winning percentage. I eliminated teams that did not play a full season of lined games, ones with a point spread every week. You often have a Texas State or Alcorn State that plays just a few lined games against large non-conference schools every year. There is no point in having their statistics skew the results.

I then looked at teams that covered the point spread at least 60% of the time for the entire season. I did this for the past four years. There were a total of 134 teams that qualified at that rate. The number each year was very constant, between 30 and 36 each year. In 2004-05, of the 34 teams on the 60% list, 25 had winning records and nine had a season below .500, then a 28-6 mark in 2005-06 of over .500 teams, and followed by a 30-6 tally for the 2006-07 season. Last year there was a drop-off to only 30 teams total that had an ATS record of 60% or better. Of those 30teams, 23 had winning records. The total for all four years was 28 teams out of 134, just 20.9%, had losing records but still covered 60% or better of their games against the number.
We have talked about betting on teams that win straight-up at a good rate. How about finding teams to bet against? Let’s go back four seasons and see what we can find.

I looked at teams that did not cover at least 40% of their games for the season. Over the four years analyzed, 122 teams in total did not reach our Mendoza line. Of those 122 money-burning teams, only 26 of them had winning records for the season, a paltry 17.6%. Just like in betting on teams with winning records can help you be profitable in your wagering endeavors, betting against teams that have below .500 records can put money in your pocket, also.

Out of curiosity, I took another way to look at this concept. How do very high percentage winning teams do against the point spread? I trekked back to the StatFox team report page, sorted the teams by straight-up winning percentage each of the past four years. I looked at teams that won 75% or better of their games.

Would you believe that 85% of these high-quality teams had .500 or better ATS records? I was surprised the number would be that high. Combined over the four-year span, there were 107 teams that won 75% of their games. Again, these are only regularly-lined teams. Last year there were 27 qualifying squads with only 4 losing ATS marks. In the 2006-07 campaign, not one out of 24 teams had a losing ATS record and only one, Memphis, had a .500 mark covering the number. Three seasons ago it was 6 teams with a below .500 ATS out of 26 at 75% or better. And in 2005-06 saw 28 high-quality teams and just 6 with losing ATS tallies.

Granted, nobody can see in the future to know with 100% accuracy what teams are going to win 75%+ of their games, or for that matter, even have a winning or losing year. However, at this time of the season you should have a very good idea of teams with that potential.

In trying to come up with things that could sink this generalized method of handicapping, my first thought was how do “public teams” do ATS. These are teams with a strong national following, sterling reputation, and who are usually high-quality teams winning year after year. Last year I looked at what I consider the top five “public teams”: North Carolina, Duke, Kansas, UCLA, and Kentucky.

I could find nothing over the past several years that uncovered a high degree of point spread profits betting against them. Last year all five teams had winning ATS scores combining for a 98-70 mark, 58.3%. In fact, I unearthed more profitable spots than negative ones, such as North Carolina since 2000 is 55-24, 69.6 %, as a home double-digit favorite below 30 points.

Well, need to run. My favorite television show is starting. Tonight’s contestant is a dentist from Denver. I want to see how he does in Fifth Grade American History.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority is frequent contributor.

Seven Betting Days until Christmas

Finally got nailed with a losing day (1-2) as our string of perfect trends ended, thus we had to find one and did in the NHL tonight. Today’s Top System is scintillating 88.9 percent winner and involves college basketball totals. Kendall isn’t losing, this is why he gets to stick around with his Free Play. For those that frequent this location, they know Kendall is having sensational NFL season. He is passing on tonight’s contest, initially favoring the Colts, but with all the injuries is waiting for better chance to win. Good Luck.

I’d like to mention to all readers, this isn’t just an information blog, it is a shared information blog. Some of you respond when asked, that’s great, but you don’t have to be asked, just comment on anything you read. All we ask is not be profane, rather be clever, it shows greater intelligence. This is a shared experience, so share!

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY UNDER on all teams like Louisville where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points, after four straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after playing a game where both teams score 80 points or more. This system is sensational 24-3, 88.9 percent.

Free Hockey Trend -2) The Boston Bruins are 12-0 against the money line after having won two of their last three games this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Kendall of the Left Coast Connection has not lost in this spot in fours days (2-0-2) and likes Louisiana Tech to upset Samford outright.

Do the Jaguars Have Bite as a Home Underdog?

A year after winning a dozen games, including one in the postseason, and reaching the divisional round of the AFC playoffs, nobody predicted Jacksonville would fall so precipitously to 5-9 after beating Green Bay. Buried in last place in the AFC South, the Jaguars own poor numbers that reflect their position in the standings. The Jaguars are 20th in total offense, 17th in rushing defense, T-17th in sacks and a turnover ratio of minus-2.

Jacksonville (4-10 ATS), which split its first six games, has won just two of seven at home heading into this Thursday night game at Municipal Stadium. After topping Detroit, 31-21, the Colts have the longest current winning streak in the NFL—seven games—and are approaching their seventh straight trip to the playoffs.

The Jaguars have been chasing Indianapolis (10-4, 5-8-1 ATS) ever since the NFL went to its current division format in 2002 and pitted them as rivals in the AFC South. But that’s not to say these teams have been separated by a wide margin. Even though Jacksonville trails the all-time series, 11-4, all but five of the matchups have been decided by a touchdown or fewer, with the Jaguars 9-3-1 ATS in last dozen meetings.

Indianapolis is one of five teams the Jaguars have beaten this season. It happened in Week 3 at Lucas Oil Stadium. Fred Taylor, who two weeks ago passed O.J. Simpson on the all-time rushing list, moving into 16th place, rushed for 121 yards and Maurice Jones-Drew added 107 yards and a touchdown to lead Jacksonville to a 23-21 victory in one of their highlight victories of the season. Quarterback David Garrard completed 16 of 22 passes for 167 yards.

The Colts knocked Garrard out of the first of two meetings a year ago when they rolled to an easy 29-7 victory in Week 7 as three-point road favorites. Garrard left in the second quarter with an ankle injury and former backup Quinn Gray was picked off twice and held to 56 yards passing on 24 attempts. Seven weeks later, a healthy Garrard (257 yards, two touchdowns) and Peyton Manning (288, 4 TDs) hooked up in an old-fashioned shootout also won by Indianapolis, 28-25, failing to cover the touchdown favorite role.

Both Garrard and head coach Jack Del Rio received hefty offseason contracts, and neither has delivered in the first year of the deal. Just last week Garrard eclipsed 3,000 yards and has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 13-to-10, and Del Rio has been unable to keep problems from spilling out of the locker room.

For the most part, the Colts bring out the best in the Jaguars. Typically they give a great effort and Jacksonville is 8-2 ATS as December dogs against AFC South foes. It will be interesting to see if the Jags use a similar offensive game plan as last week, using tight ends in short passing game and throwing deeper passes to Dennis Northcutt, who had first 100-yard receiving game in four years last week. Jacksonville has not covered consecutive games since weeks 15 and 16 last season.

Bookmaker.com has the Colts as six-point pick, with the total lodged at 44. Indianapolis is 8-2 ATS as road favorite of six or less with revenge, plus 14-3 against the spread after two straight wins by 10 or more points.

Normally at this time, Indy has wrapped up division and is healing injuries for playoffs. Not this year and despite the Jaguars record, this will be good test for Colts run defense, which appears improved, however facing Cleveland, Cincinnati and Detroit might be a bigger reason why they look better. Amazingly, Tony Dungy’s club is only 1-10 ATS versus weaker defensive teams allowing 5.65 or more yards per play.

This will be the final Thursday night telecast on the NFL Network for this season, which will start at usual 8:15 Eastern time. This series is like Charley Brown and Lucy, with Jacksonville being the underdog for the 16th time in a row facing the Colts.

A Hump Day of Betting Action

That’s what we’ve been looking for, a 3-0 day Tuesday and we are 7-0-2 the last three days. Kendall of the LLC had sharp winner on Houston last night and offers another Free Play. Today’s Top Trend isn’t perfect but awfully close at 13-1 in college hoops. The Best Basketball System on the planet for Wednesday in the NBA is 84.6 ATS, with a different viewpoint. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home favorites like Detroit after a win by six points or less against opponent after trailing their last two games by 10+ points at the half. Since 2004 this system is 22-4 ATS, 84.6 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) N. C. State is 1-13 ATS after playing a game as an underdog over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Kendall of the Left Coast Connection has not lost in this spot in three days (granted 2 pushes) and likes UTEP to take down Texas Tech.

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Don’t Go Bowling for Fun – Execute to Win

All the bowl games are set with a wide spectrum of choices for fans and bettors alike. With 34 choices spread out over 20 days, it is very easy to get caught up in having the desire to wager on every game. What anyone does is their business, however it is wise to take a step back and take this all in. One of the real advantages for bettors in this position is time, so make sure not to waste it.

It is best to start with fundamental handicapping to establish a base. Here is where you break apart what a team has done running and passing the ball and stopping the run and the pass. When doing this it is best to use the overall statistics as a snap shot and not have it become the whole picture. The reason is every team is essentially different in some aspects from what they were in September. Thus it is important to understand how any team has played from November until the end of the season. Along the same lines it is also wise to use the numbers for how a team played on the road. Here is a simple exercise you can do to seek strengths or weaknesses among the 68 teams competing in the bowl game. Using Excel spreadsheet or the trusty paper and pencil, put the match-ups together using the following categories, seeking the national rankings 1-119 and make sure to leave a column open next to number used:

*Yards rushing
*Points per game
*Total yards per game
*Yards passing
*Yards per point

Remember, defense may win championships, but offense wins bowl games. After you have completed this, next fill in how these various teams have performed on the road (Hawaii being only true exception) right next numbers you previously listed. The point of this is to find out how teams perform on the road compared to playing all games. If you find real disparity, now you have the makings of a fundamental difference in how a team plays and this should be duly noted. Repeat the process for defensive numbers.

The reason I listed running yards first, is I feel it is the single most important number in fundamental handicapping for bowl games. Being able to run the ball or stop the run is about desire and goes to the very core of the game. The minimum layoff any team will have is Navy, who is playing just two weeks after last game and Ohio State will once again have the longest layoff, having last played on December 22. To execute the passing game, timing and repetitiveness are the most important factors. With these types of layoffs, it is easy to get stale no matter how hard you practice, as game speed is far different than practice. The running game is about getting off the ball and knocking somebody down and a runner willing to hit the hole with abandon. Of course skill is required; however a rough and tumble attitude will carry a team a long way.

While throwing out words like desire and attitude, this is another large component in looking at bowl match-ups. What teams are excited to go to a bowl game and what teams are “settling” for the bowl experience?

Wake Forest ended up with just a 7-5 season and a revenge game would seem to be a motivator having lost to Navy already this season, but if you didn’t respect them the first time, why would the Demon Deacons now? South Florida plays in the new St. Petersburg Bowl, not far from home, but is that enough of a reason to be charged up after losing four of last five contests facing 6-6 Memphis? Other teams that could be flat emotionally are Missouri off two bad losses, LSU with three straight defeats and a national championship plays in the Chick-fil-A Bowl in a virtual home game for Georgia Tech. Can Texas Tech and Alabama overcome initial losses late in the season and beat hungry quality opponents?

Other schools might be genuinely excited about bowl assignments. Arizona will have first bowl experience in a decade and not that far from home in Las Vegas. California closed the season with 4-2 record and plays in nearby San Francisco against Miami-Fl, who lost last games and might bring 50 fans plus alum that live in the Bay Area. Rice will charged up, playing in home city at the Texas Bowl and having just second bowl experience since 1949. Mississippi goes bowling for the first time since 2003 at the Cotton Bowl and Cincinnati plays in first major bowl game in school history as Big East champions.

Another factor to consider is strength of a conference. This year, much like the national scene, it was hard to pick a clear conference or two that stood above the rest. The SEC always gets all the love, but beyond Florida and Alabama, clear weaknesses were exposed in and out of conference play. In fact five of the other six teams from this league are underdogs in their respective games. The Big 12 was all over prime time having unprecedented talent at the quarterback position, including Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford and runner-up Colt McCoy. The conference ended up with five of the top nine scoring teams in the country, which also means we all will find how good or bad those defenses were against teams from other leagues. The Big East was bullied in non-conference play and is unlikely to draw much action from bettors. The Big East was actually rated ahead of the Pac-10 in the Sagarin ratings; however that takes into consideration all teams in the league. The Big East had Syracuse to drop their rating, while the Pac-10 had the twin Washington universities to lower there figures. Studying the lines, the lowly Pac-10 is favored in four of their five bowl games and the only underdog is Oregon, who scores 155 points in last three outings.

The Big Ten secured seven slots, mostly because they travel well to get out of bad weather and only Iowa is presently listed as favorite among the group. If you want a shocker, try this on, the aforementioned Sagarin Ratings have the ACC as the top conference in the country. That is a crazy notion, considering they sent the team with the worst record (9-4) Virginia Tech to a BCS Bowl. Nonetheless, the ACC had the best non-conference record among all leagues and is favored in five of its nine post-season conflicts.

One league you will see a great deal is Conference USA, with six teams, likely assuring five or six Over plays on the total, being an offense first – defense second, football conference. The Mountain West Conference had one of their better years in recent memory, with three teams going being Top 25 material most of the season, with 12-0 Utah the strongest. Of the five teams invited to play ball, only TCU is a favorite in the Poinsettia Bowl.

Other points to consider are quarterback play. All the Big 12 teams will have a leg up in this area, being superior in this category. As it turns out, that is among the reasons why the SEC has so many underdogs this bowl season. Rice with Chase Clement, Rutgers with Mike Teel and Nevada with Colin Kaepernick, all deserve an extra look, because these quarterbacks have proven themselves all season. Conversely, expecting Miami-Fl, Maryland and Connecticut to come from behind should they trail by 10 points in their games might be asking too much.

Another point to follow is betting strategy. Most bettors prefer favorites, and a select group will love to play underdogs, both strategies are flawed. The bowls are essentially no different than the regular season. In the last three years of bowl games, the straight up winner is 70-20-2 against the spread, winning 77.7 percent of the time. This points to the simplest and at the same time most complex answer- determine the winner of the game and the money will come to you.

Lastly check out websites relating to the teams in specific games about two weeks prior to the bowl. From informational standpoint, the investigative handicapper can often find nuggets relating to the goals of a coach in a bowl game. If the game is a reward for the season, sometimes those teams come in loose and unfocused. If a coach like say Brian Kelly of Cincinnati is in charge, he is all about demands and pushing his team and will likely have them more focused.

If you have had good, bad or great season in wagering on college football, utilize the time wisely and finish the season with a flourish, loaded with the right information.

Tuesday's Best Bets and Quick Look at MNF Total

Well this is a first, two straight 2-0-1 days at 3Daily Winners. I saw the trend of bettors taking the total upward on the Monday night affair and bet the Under 40 points. In all honesty it was probably fitting the game Pushed, because those on either side had two very lucky or unlucky breaks forcing the outcome. One of the wackier totals games of the year.

A rather thin sports card has us turning attention to the NHL for today’s Best System that is an 82.7 percent winner. Very curious about the outcome, as a number of notable hockey cappers are on the other side. The Perfect Trends have been perfect lately and we have another in the NBA. Good Luck.

Free Hockey System-1) PLAY AGAINST road teams like New Jersey when the money line is -100 to -150, revenging a loss where opponent scored five or more goals, off a home loss by two goals or more. This super system has delivered winners 24 of the last 29 times in the last 10 seasons, including 2-0 this year.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Charlotte Bobcats are 10-0 ATS in home games after a game with five or less offensive rebounds.

Free Basketball Selection -3)Kendall is off two Pushes in the NFL and says take Houston in the NBA tonight.

2008-09 Bowl Handicapping Guide

Some may call this shilling, I'm going with if you want to win big this bowl season, you should purchase a copy of this 2008-09 Bowl Handicapping Guide from StatFox. It should be noted I was not asked to do this, I'm doing it because it's a very good product, packed with relevant information to help you win.

The 2008-09 StatFox Bowl Game Handicapping Guide can be ordered either a hard copy or the PDF version will be in your e-mail boxes shortly. If you haven't ordered one yet, I'd certainly recommend it. Yours truly has written a great deal of information for this superb publication and in fact I'll have an article I write wrote tomorrow right here. To receive a hard copy, you MUST have your order placed by Wednesday Dec.17, 12 PM CT. Call 1.888.578.2836 and ask for Steve. Otherwise order online by clicking here, you will be pleased.

Here is a sample:

ACC
The Atlantic Coast Conference will have a record 10 teams playing in the postseason with five teams in the favorite slot. Two others, Maryland and North Carolina are in pick em’ spreads, and the three remaining teams are underdogs. League champion Virginia Tech plays in the highlight game vs. Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl. Be sure to note the trends below regarding the ACC’s success or lack thereof when favored or getting points. According to past records versus other conferences, North Carolina, Miami, NC State, and Virginia Tech would be “play on” teams while Boston College and Georgia Tech would be in fade spots.


Underdogs have been the flavor of choice in ACC bowl games recently, going just 10-15 SU but 18-7 ATS (72%) in the L25 games. Over the L2 seasons, that dog record is 12-4 ATS (75%).

ACC teams have made for lousy bowl game favorites, going just 6-7 SU & 3-10 ATS (23%) as chalk since 12/29/05.

Against non-BCS conferences, the ACC has stumbled to a 5-4 SU & 3-5-1 ATS (38%) record since ‘98, all as favorites. Versus other BCS conferences, the ACC has been overwhelmed to the tune of a 2-8 SU & 3-6-1 ATS (33%) record in its L10.

The ACC has enjoyed bowl game success vs. the Big East (9-4 SU & 10-3 ATS) and the Pac 10 (5-1 SU & ATS). However, against the SEC, the ACC has been awful, 4-16 SU & 5-13-2 ATS (28%).

Does Sean Avery Deserve a Break?

Sticks and stones may break my bones but words will never hurt me. Unfortunately for the cantankerous Dallas Stars forward Sean Avery, the playground proverb did not hold up in the NHL court of conduct.

Two weeks ago prior to a game against Calgary, Commissioner Gary Bettman cold-cocked Avery with a six-game suspension after making “comments detrimental to the league” regarding his ex-girlfriends and fellow hockey players.

Here is Avery’s statement in its entirety: “I'm really happy to be back in Calgary; I love Canada. I just want to comment on how it's become like a common thing in the NHL for guys to fall in love with my sloppy seconds. I don't know what that's about, but enjoy the game tonight.”

The 28-year old Avery, who just signed a four-year 15.5 million dollar contract with Dallas, offered “building excitement” for the game that evening as his alibi. Hollywood actress Elisha Cuthbert is Avery’s old flame and is currently dating Calgary defenseman Dion Phaneuf.

Sounds about right to me…one hockey player talking trash about his opponent’s girlfriend in hopes of getting into his head and getting a rise out of him for some quality entertainment? Isn’t that why hockey fans go to games anyway? To watch these men on skates beat each other’s brains out? And they walk away disappointed if the gloves don’t drop at least once a night.

I am not trying to defend that what Sean Avery said was copacetic. His remarks were off-color and no professional athlete should leverage his status to speak in a derogative manner toward anyone – especially women. These guys are privileged to be playing sports for millions of dollars and most don’t possess the intelligence to make a comment without offending someone so they should keep their mouths shut.

But I am going to argue that Avery’s punishment was not reasonable.

Let’s examine a couple of the most recent suspensions handed out in the National Hockey League. On November 14, New York Islanders defenseman Thomas Pock was banned five games for an ill-advised elbow to the head of Ottawa Senators forward Ryan Shannon. The blow concussed Shannon and he does not recall the incident. Days later, a two-game suspension was placed on the New Jersey Devils Mike Mottau for a hit that put his victim out of commission for 12 weeks with head and leg injuries.

These guys do a lot more than talking on the ice and the sticks they use do break bones. But Sean Avery gets six games for two words?

Precedent set in a league surrounded in criminal turmoil seems to be even softer. Kansas City Chiefs running back Larry Johnson slaps a woman in the face at a bar and only got suspended a single game. Matt Jones of the Jacksonville Jaguars got caught cutting up lines of cocaine with a Wal-Mart card in a parking lot and is disciplined with a three-game banishment.

Did Sean Avery carry a weapon into a public setting, did he physically attack another person or test positive for any kind of illegal drug? No. In an attempt to possibly be humorous, he made a remark about his former love affairs.

What happened to freedom of speech in this country?

Plus, it isn’t like this is the first time (or last) a celebrity has made her way around NHL locker rooms. Remember Anna Kournikova? I’m sure there was worse said about her among the hockey sewing circles, maybe just not publicly.

In 2004 the outspoken wife of MLB pitcher Kris Benson told Howard Stern on his radio show that if her hubby was ever unfaithful to her and got caught, she would have sex with the entire Mets team – including the bat boys. Anna Benson’s remarks were not crude but amusing. Probably not something you want the kids to overhear, much like Avery’s, but not much different than something they might encounter on late night cable.

Avery’s first game eligible to return from suspension would be tonight against the Phoenix Coyotes but he won’t be in the Dallas Stars locker room come game time.

As of Sunday, the organization has decided to part ways with Avery. Details of Avery’s termination are still up in the air but the Stars could trade him (if any teams have interest), send him to the minor leagues or buy out his contract next summer.

Since entering the league in 2001, Sean Avery has quickly become what Dennis Rodman was to the NBA during his tenure. An agitator, the most-hated player in hockey and some have even called him an embarrassment to the sport.

Avery is currently dealing with his personal problems. In addition to the six-game suspension, Avery was requested to enter a 10-day anger counseling and treatment program where he is addressing his “who gives a crap” attitude.

But the NHL and Commissioner Bettman crossed the blue line of injustice while handling this matter.

Forget about the six games without pay, they might have cost an athlete his future in professional hockey. Many, many athletes have done far worse and have received far less in terms of punishment.

I think he deserves another chance. After all of this, maybe Sean Avery has learned to clean up some of his own sloppiness.


Scott Cooley is a freelance write and make contributions at 3Daily Winners and other locales. If you agree or disagree let Scott know here.

Going After it Hard with Monday Wagering Action

A tie may be like kissing your sister, but every gambler knows it’s better than a loss, as we finished 2-0-1 yesterday in the NFL. This Monday we have the Denver in a tremendous system that is great against the spread and on the money line. The Top Trend is perfect once again, looking in on a bad NBA defensive club. Kendall of the LLC pushed here yesterday, but had a super day overall in the NFL and has a play for tonight. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON teams when the line is +3 to -3, who are a higher scoring offensive team, averaging 102 or more points a game, against a good offensive team averaging 98-102 PPG, after a win by 10 points or more. The Denver Nuggets are the team that fits this system that is 26-4 ATS, 86.7 percent, with the outright winner 24-6!

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Golden State Warriors are 0-7 ATS after allowing 105 or more points in consecutive games.

Free Football Selection -3) Kendall of the Left Coast Connection was as good as anyone yesterday, with 3-0-1 record, raising his NFL record to 41-21-1, 66.1 percent. He pushed here at 3Daily Winners with Atlanta and is playing the UNDER this Monday night in Philly.

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Are you Trusting 3rd String Cleveland QB to Cover?

Since it’s the season for giving, perhaps Philadelphia Eagles should send a package to Cleveland quarterback Ken Dorsey in anticipation of this Sunday’s matchup at Lincoln Financial Field—the biggest bottle of Advil money can buy. Sacked just once, but on the run more than Lincoln Burrows from Fox’s Prison Break, Dorsey completed 22 of 43 passes for 150 yards and one interception in the 28-9 loss last week at Tennessee.

It was his first start since 2005, and more of the same pressure can be expected when the Browns visit the City of Brotherly Love for their third Monday Night game of the year. Philadelphia (7-5-1, 8-5 ATS), coming off a 20-14 road win over the Giants, is just 2-2-1 in the last five games and trying to hang on in the NFC playoff race. What better way to stay on a roll than by beating up on a Cleveland (4-9, 6-6-1 ATS) franchise that’s lost two quarterbacks to season-ending injuries in the last three games and has one win since Halloween?

Defensive coordinator Jim Johnson loves to dial up blitzes from every angle, and the rusty Dorsey will find himself under attack from the rush of Eagles, who are 8-1 ATS off a division game over the last two seasons.

Jamal Lewis is averaging a mere 3.53 yards per carry, and the world should be using Braylon Edwards blood to stop sickness, since he couldn’t catch a cold, let alone a pass this season. He’s dropped nearly half of the attempts thrown his way and has just 45 receptions. The Browns are just 10-22 ATS versus good rushing defenses allowing 3.5 or less rushing yards a carry.

The explosion has been missing from the Cleveland offense (21 points in the last three games), save for Brady Quinn’s first two NFL starts, and expecting it to return in Philadelphia with a third-string quarterback is a bigger longshot than the elves dropping off a 50-inch plasma TV.

Donovan McNabb’s bounced back since his benching in Baltimore, throwing for 451 yards and five touchdowns in two games, but more importantly not a single interception. The real trigger to the offense, however, isn’t McNabb but Brian Westbrook, and he has 333 total yards and six scores of his own since the debacle in Baltimore. The Eagles are 13-4 ATS at home vs. passing defenses permitting a completion percentage of 61 percent or worse in the second half of the season.

The Browns defense, led by D’Qwell Jackson’s 130 tackles, has limited the high-powered Texans, Colts and Titans to just 54 combined points and lost to them all. The defeats are more of a direct reflection of the offense’s struggles at the quarterback position, than any shortcoming on defense most of the time.

Bookmaker.com has Philadelphia as 14-point favorite with a total of 39. This could be difficult number for the Eagles to overcome, given they are 14-5 UNDER as a home favorite since 2006. Double digit home favorites are just 8-14 ATS this season.

Cleveland covers if they go for broke and play smart. Utilize running back Jerome Harrison with Jamal Lewis in the backfield to keep the Eagles defense guessing. Harrison is electrifying runner with a seam and Lewis can lay the lumber to the defensive front. The Cleveland coaches have to set up Dorsey for success with short passes on quick reads, otherwise hello Advil. The Browns secondary gives WAY too much cushion to receivers. The Philly contingent of pass-grabbers is good, certainly not great, play tighter, what do you have to lose as two touchdown underdogs? Cleveland is 7-0 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.

Philadelphia covers if they remember they are still in the playoff hunt and the Washington and Dallas are too be played no matter what, focus on this contest, the others will follow. Good teams punish bad teams by taking them out of the game. The Eagles have rushed 81 times in the past two games, the most ever under coach Andy Reid in a two-game span, and came out with victories and covers each time. Man up the Browns shaky receivers and organize a sack party in the Cleveland backfield.

This week’s Monday Night system is to play on favorites like the Eagles, off a win against a division rival, when playing football on the first day of a new work week. This system is 30-10 ATS, 75 percent the last decade.

Free NFL Betting Info- Week 15

Many friends of 3Daily Winners including myself got there rear-end handed to them yesterday. It was one of those days you are just thankful it’s December and a long basketball season still awaits. By comparison, 1-2 here for Saturday looks pretty good compared to some of the numbers I saw. Kendall from the LLC returns and is still having a very good NFL season and offers his Best Play for Free. The impossible to figure Denver Broncos are featured in today’s Top Trend. The best NFL System available today is an unlikely team and is 86.1 percent Winner. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the second half of the season. This sweet sounding system is 31-5 ATS, 86.1 percent over a 25-year period, including 2-0 in 2008. The team to consider is the Seattle Seahawks.

Free Football Trend -2) The Denver Broncos are is 1-14 ATS after gaining six or more yards a play in their previous game over the last two seasons.

Free Football Selection -3) Kendall of the Left Coast Connection did cool off from his amazing 17-2 NFL start and is 38-21, 64.4 percent current for the year. He’s started to heat up again with 5-0 record last week and is on Atlanta this week.

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Betting Keys to Five Key NFL Games in Week 15

The regular season is winding down and so are the remaining opportunities to keep winning wagers in the NFL. The NFC South has three of its teams involved in crucial contests, which will be critical to who ends at the top of the division and who makes the playoffs. The New York Jets have been grounded with a pair of defeats and will attempt to take flight again and keep share of the division lead versus AFC East rival Buffalo. Arizona won first division title since Bruce Springsteen released instant classic ‘Born to Run” album and now have to deal with celebrity and how to prepare for postseason and teams on the remainder schedule like Minnesota. Finally, Pittsburgh and Baltimore renew un-pleasantries, with extra ambulances and doctors on call. Bookmaker.com provides the Week 15 numbers.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (Falcons -3, 44.5)

It’s inconceivable the Tampa Bay defense will be steamrolled a second straight time, even facing Michael Turner. Similar to Carolina, Atlanta prefers to move the chains and try a few deep balls. The Buccaneers defense has to control third downs or it could be another tough road loss. On offense Garcia needs more help from offensive line, to start running game and play-action passing. The Bucs are 11-4-1 ATS in recent battles. Atlanta leads the league in first quarter points with 94. This shows excellent planning and execution and home keeps the crowd in the game. The Falcons defense has to do better job against the run, permitting 123.4 yards a game the last five weeks. Make Tampa Bay one dimensional, which frees up John Abraham to rush Jeff Garcia. If Roddy White catches three long passes, good chance the favorite moves to 16-5-1 ATS in this southern showdown.

Buffalo at N.Y. Jets (Jets -7.5, 41)

Brett Favre has to load up on Red Bull or some energy drink, as once again his play is noticeably slipping late in the season. Opposing teams have devised ways to take away deep ball from Jets, with no burners and the secondary has more holes than Dunkin Donuts without a pass rush. When New York had five game winning streak, they scored on first possession, put the right plays together to make that happen again. Buffalo players are wondering why offensive coordinator Turk Schonert has gotten so pass happy, especially with two quarterbacks with limited ability in that persuasion. The Bills work better running the pigskin and blending the pass. Buffalo has covered seven of last 10, the defense will need to win field position battle and force two or more miscues.

Denver at Carolina (Panthers -7.5, 48)

Mike Shanahan’s team has been impossible to figure, however they might bloviate having the opportunity to attack Carolina corners with Jay Cutler tossing the ball, after seeing how open Tampa Bay receivers were down the field. By now the Broncos don’t worry whose running, with turnstile efforts this season. Carolina can be run on. Denver has actually been better against the run with 4-3 setup and safety near the line of scrimmage. If they fail to stop Panthers back, Broncos drop to 1-9 ATS in December after a pair of wins and covers. This is Carolina’s last home game and NFC South teams are 23-2, 18-6-1 ATS at home in 2008. Off the huge win last Monday, a drop in intensity would wipe out potential importance of Giants game next week. John Fox’s squad can control the line of scrimmage on both sides in this matchup and bludgeon Broncos with Steve Smith down the field.

Minnesota at Arizona (Cardinals -3, 47)

Tavaris Jackson will get the call for the Vikes who want him to play like he did last week in relief of Frerotte. If Arizona could, they would wear Detroit helmets, as Adrian Peterson has five fumbles against the Lions this season. Peterson knows he has to secure the ball better, with Cardinals swooping in to swipe the ball away. The Vikings run of the mill secondary will need Jared Allen and others to rattle Warner. The Cardinals will want to improve certain areas before playoffs (does that sound odd), while keeping wins coming. Kurt Warner has eight turnovers in last four games, not acceptable. The running game has to rise to well below average instead of 32nd. A hundred yard effort against Minny would be big confidence boost. Play like a division champion at home against a visitor that is 2-6 ATS against teams with winning home records.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (Ravens -2.5, 34)

Pittsburgh is well renowned for playing with intensity, however this stage will have Baltimore stoked. The Steelers must match the Ravens and stop them at the point of attack when running the ball. Flacco was often confused last week, with Dick LeBeau calling the defense he’ll do whatever he can to the rookie to keep in same state of mind. Baltimore has to consistently win first and second down, Keeping Joe Flacco in manageable situations and Ben Roethlisberger in third and long. Baltimore will take stupid penalties when they are too juiced up, they must maintain poise and not give away free yards to Steelers. The Ravens are 10-2 ATS in home games after three or more consecutive wins.

First Big Saturday of College Basketball Betting

We move into Saturday off a 2-1 day, as Detroit was a three-pointer away from giving us a perfect day. The focus today will be college basketball on its first big Saturday and we have a Top System that rings up winners 80.6 percent of the time. Another perfect Trend is in place, having won a few in a row. Eric of the Left Coast Connection goes for his third straight winner. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who were a good team from last season like Ohio State, shooting 45 percent or higher, with a defense permitting 42 percent or less shots made this season, with just two starters returning from last year. The logic here is if a team is favored in this price range with not many returning players, they must be talented enough to cover the spread. This system is 25-6 ATS, 80.6 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Oregon State is 0-9 as a home underdog or pick over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Eric has been very strong in basketball and is taking UCLA to crush DePaul.

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Early Football Line Moves

The Early Line Moves segment of college football for the regular season has ended and it was quite a year. Last week in college football these plays were 1-2 on the sides and fabulous 5-0 in college totals. This makes season record 66-41-1, 61.6 percent on sides and 48-36, 57.1 percent on Totals in CFB. We will start for the bowl season, but my experience has been this is harder to determine because of the timing aspect. I talked to sharps that jump on numbers the day they are posted, however the vast majority wait about a week before the game and try to buy the market at what price they want. This makes the marketplace for these games more convoluted, when mixed in with others and the results vary from year to year.

In the NFL, there were no Sides plays, leaving the record at 13-12, 52 percent. On the Totals, a sparkling 3-1 record, making the updated figure 24-18-1, 57.1 percent. Enjoy reading and closely follow these numbers for wagering portfolio.

NFL Sides
Seattle -3 to -1 (Has gone back up since)
Baltimore Pick to -2
New England -8 to -6.5

NFL Totals
SF/ Miami 43 to 41.5
Buff/NYJ 43 to 41.5
SD/KC 48 to 46

Bowl Game Sides
TCU Pick to -2.5

Bowl Game Totals
TCU/Boise 48 to 46

That is all for the first seven bowl games.

College Hoops Wagering Options + Bonus

For the first time since last season, college basketball fans and bettors get to have their day, with very little competition on a Saturday other than Christmas shoppers being out and about. Basketball bettors will be walking past televisions to catch the occasional score; otherwise a very solid day of basketball action is on tap. Last year’s NCAA finalist’s Memphis and Kansas can both be seen, being very different squads from a last year’s overtime thriller. Indiana and Kentucky used to be a big game, not this season. Depending where you live, finding time to see Oklahoma’s talented Blake Griffin is a wise decision. You can visit a Free StatFox FoxSheet for the battle of the Queen City with Xavier and Cincinnati in the Crosstown Shootout. Look to Bookmaker.com to review the latest odds.

Memphis at Georgetown 2:00ET, CBS

Memphis (5-1, 4-2 ATS) looks to continue to build its pre-conference resume taking on Georgetown. The Tigers have missed Derrick Rose at the point (who wouldn’t) and are trying to work in freshman Wesley Witherspoon, who was handed the keys to the Tigers offense. Coach John Calipari tried to use Antonio Anderson; however he’s better suited as off-the-ball wing that can rebound and play reckless defense. It is evident at present this is not a good shooting team, behind 17-feet. These Tigers play best when running, shooting and crashing the boards. Memphis had final exams and is 8-2 ATS when playing with seven or more days rest.

Georgetown (6-1, 2-2 ATS) may lack the veteran leadership of last season, but something could be cookin’ in Hoya country with talented youngsters. Freshmen Greg Monroe and Jason Clark, as well as sophomore Chris Wright have contributed nicely with holdovers Jessie Sapp and DaJuan Summers. Coach John Thompson III wants this game as a great tune-up before the Big East wars start. Thompson knows what he will receive from Sapp and has to keep prodding Summers to be more diversified, by grabbing rebounds and not settling for jump shots. The Hoyas need to control tempo at a slower pace, since they are 5-17 ATS in home games when they allow 67 to 74 points in a game.

Think of this as an excellent measuring stick for both programs to determine where they are and where they are headed with conference play around the corner.

To review the rest of the games click here.

Only 13 Wagering Days before Christmas

Sometimes you just have to trust things and I was incorrect about yesterday’s system that led to 2-0 day here at 3Daily Winners. I was pleased it won but also pleased I passed on the game since I would have been displeased to have lost. We come back today with another sound System which is 80.4 percent and grinded out three winners this season. We uncovered another perfect Trend, this time in the NBA. Good Luck.

A thought for today, with 34 bowl games and countless sponsors, why hasn’t Campbell’s and Progresso stepped into the fray, it seems so natural. What guys don’t eat soup?

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home teams like the Detroit Pistons off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, playing with two days rest. These rested fellows are 45-11 ATS, 80.4 percent since 2004 and perfect 3-0 this season.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Minnesota Timberwolves are 0-12 ATS in home games revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Eric of the Left Coast Connection has Boston -7 as his top play in the NBA.

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It Pays to Know NBA Betting and Your State Capitals

I was on a radio station a couple of weeks ago to talk about betting on the National Basketball Association. The host of the show asked me a question which I am sure he wanted to receive a highly intelligent, insightful answer that would be enlightening to his listeners. We then could have an extended discussion going into great detail that would be quite informative.

The radio host asked me, “What is the secret to making money betting the NBA”? Perhaps he was looking for me to talk about predicting team wins using the bell curve method or employing individual player ratings to determine the outcome of key match-ups and how they will affect a game. Or maybe he was looking for a humorous response such as “have Tim Donaghy introduce you to a few of his referee friends”.

Considering his expectations, it was quite deflating to him when I answered, “just pick winners”. There was a pause on the other end as his brain was scrambling for ways he was going to fill twelve minutes of air time until the next commercial break. I assume he was determining whether I was being a smart aleck or if I was just a moron.

I wasn’t trying to be a jerk nor was I giving him a flippant answer. Actually, my response carries a lot of validity. It would have been more accurate if I worded it “bet on winning teams”, but I guess working a couple of summers in a theme park while going to school left me with a habit of giving offhand and glib remarks to thoughtless questions posed by tourists and now, obviously, radio hosts.

The radio interview continued with another dead spot or two. I did finally impress the radio guy when I told him I knew the capitals of all fifty states. He quickly quizzed me asking what was Vermont’s state capital? Not only did I correctly answer Montpelier, but I added the fun fact that with a population of under 9,000 people, it is the smallest capital city in the country. The interview ended with me trying to convince him that the state capital of West Virginia, Charleston, was named after a lively popular dance in the 1920’s.

Back to the initial point though…Let’s take a look at whether betting on winning teams has been profitable in the NBA. Is there a connection between teams winning straight-up and covering the point spread? Do teams that have a higher winning percentage cover the point spread more than teams that lose a fair amount of their games?

One thing about the NBA, as well as the NFL, you normally see many teams closer to .500 in ATS and in Over/Under stats than you do compared to their amateur cohorts. With much smaller leagues, 30 or 32 teams in pro hoops and pro football, and a much smaller degree of differences and variances in style of play, you get more standardization of results and margins.

In college sports you have a wide diversity in talent as well as styles. Depth on college teams is much thinner, in most cases, than it is at the professional level. There is not nearly the drop-off in talent between the first-string and the reserves on an NBA team as there is in, say, the Missouri Valley Conference. Injuries can decimate teams at the amateur level. Look at a team like the Houston Rockets. Last year they frequently played without one or even both of their stars, Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, due to injury. Houston still managed the sixth best record in the NBA winning 55 games in the regular season.

Last season in the NBA showed more of a gap between the top ten teams and the bottom ten squads. Each of the past three years the best team won right around 80% of their games straight up. Boston had the best record last year, Dallas in 2006-07, and before that it was Detroit. In the 2005-06 and 2006-07 campaigns, the tenth best record in the NBA regular season was 45-37, 54.9%. Last year Dallas had the tenth best winning percentage with a record of 51-31, 62.2%.

Looking for a correlation between straight-up winning and beating the number, last season the bottom ten teams in straight-up winning percentage contained seven of the ten worst point-spread covering teams. Not one team that finished in the top third in ATS% was in the bottom third in straight-up winning percentage.

The bottom ten teams combined regular season winning percentage was 250-570, 30.49%. Betting on those losing teams last season to win against the spread saw you only winning 44.06% of your wagers, 356-452.

Seven of the top ten teams who covered the point spread last year were also in the ten best overall winning teams. Only one team who was in the bottom third of the league in ATS%, Dallas, had the one of the top ten SU records.

The SU mark of the 2007-08 top ten teams was 561-269, 68.41%. Faithfully betting on these teams gave you a winning ATS slate of 56.07%. So last year, betting on the top ten teams with the best SU record was a very profitable venture.

One thing that you do have to remember is you have bad teams playing other bad teams as well as the top ten teams going against each other. Since there is a winner and a loser in every game, records will be padded on both sides at a .500 rate when a similar caliber team plays each other. I wanted to see if our results from last season, “just betting winners”, was being replicated this season. The quick answer was yes as six of the bottom ten teams against the spread are also in the bottom third of the straight-up winning percentage. Bad teams can cover as evidenced by the worst team in the league, Oklahoma City, 2-19 SU, being in the top ten in covering the number. Charlotte, one of the bottom SU teams, is also in the top ten in ATS records. The problem is these teams are few and far between.

On the contrary, of the ten best SU teams this season, six of those are also in the top ten for winning against the spread. Not one of the bad teams is in the top ten in covering the number.
The gap last year between very good and bad teams was assisted by having a couple of very bad teams. Two and three seasons ago, no team had below a 25% winning percentage. Last year two teams, Oklahoma City (Seattle) and Miami, finished below that mark winning 20 and 15 games respectively. This season is showing even a larger gap with amazingly seven teams with a 25% or lower winning percentage straight up.

In fact, the bottom ten teams right now are winning straight-up at a rate of 25.38%, 50-147, more than five percentage points below last years ten cellar dwellers. They are covering the point spread at a slightly worse pace than last year, 43.88%.

The top third winning teams this year have an impressive combined mark of 142-53, 72.82% SU. They are covering the oddsmaker’s line even better than last year, 57.51%, 111-82. A record which can’t stay this high is Cleveland’s 16-4, 80% ATS tally.

There are betting trends that come and go in sports wagering. A few years ago betting on favorites in the NFL was at an all-time best rate. This year NFL double-digit underdogs are money in the bank. Last year and this season have seen a very profitable NBA trend to just bet on the best ten teams as gauged by their straight-up record and to bet against the worst ten teams. If handicapping NBA games continues to be this easy, I will have a lot of free time on my hands. Maybe even enough time to visit Montpelier, VT, and see that impressive gold dome on the capital building.

Free lancewriter Jim Kruger is a sharp basketball handicapper and state capital expert, who has no idea what he had for lunch.

Betting Info for Dec.11

Good to have 2-1 day, though that 3-0 has been elusive. Anyways, the Top Trend was winner and looks at one of the more obscure teams in college basketball betting and they are in perfect 10-0 situation. I have to say, I can only think of one time since September I questioned if the Best System would win, today’s another. It’s hard to argue with 22-3 ATS, I hope I’m wrong. No Free Play from Eric today, who does offer NBA opinion, however have numbers on tonight’s NFL contest. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON road teams like the Bobcats, who are a poor offensive team (88-92 PPG) against a poor defensive team like Dallas (98-102 PPG), after allowing 105 points or more. The system has delivered the spread winner 22 of 25 times.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Weber State is 10-0 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last three seasons.

Free Selection -3) Eric of the Left Coast Connection gave us a solid winner, but doesn’t like anything that much and said he made a small wager on the Washington Wizards. The final tabulation on tonight’s NFL game from the LLC is Chicago-8 and New Orleans-6, with not one person playing the Total.

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Sports Wagering Knowledge for Wednesday

We settled for 2-2 Tuesday and look for bigger things on Hump Day. The Cleveland Cavaliers are featured in our Top Trend and did you know they have not only won and covered nine in a row, they have covered the spread by astonishing 9.3 points per game. WOW! The newest member of the LCC joins the fray and shares his Top Play. The Best System we could find in “only” 88.7 percent in college hoops. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON any team cold shooting team like Tulsa, after three straight games making 40% or less of their shots against opponent after two straight games - allowing a shooting percentage of 37% or less, like Missouri State has. Does 14-2 ATS, 87.5 percent work for you too?

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Cleveland Cavaliers are 15-2 ATS as a favorite this season, winning by better than 17 points a game.

Free Basketball Selection -3) One of the newest members of the Left Coast Connection is Eric, who only bets basketball and plays poker. He likes the value of Atlanta against San Antonio off double overtime win, being an older club.