Early Line Moves in Football

The early Line Moves continue in the NFL after 1-1 Week 16 on the sides, making the record to 14-16, 46.6 percent. The Totals did well with 3-2 record, raising season record to 29-21-1, 58 percent. The Bowls are currently 1-2 on the sides and 1-1 on the totals. Like I mentioned last week, it is difficult to pinpoint the smart money with bowls, with just one or two games played in a day and that shows up in Central Michigan and Over both being wrong. I have on very good authority Sunday’s college bowl game is “smart” money, no matter the outcome.

NFL Sides
Green Bay -7.5 to -9.5
Houston -1 to -2.5
Tennessee Pick to -3
Pittsburgh -9 to -10.5
Arizona -3.5 to -5

NFL Totals
Tenn/Indy 41 to 38
NE/Buff 43.5 to 41
Cleve/Pitt 34 to 31.5

Bowl Game Sides
Northern Ill. -3 to Pick

Will update Monday the rest of the bowls for next week.

A Look at Saturday's Best

Take the ol’ 2-1 day any day and have a hunger for a 3-0 Saturday. We’ll start with a Top Trend in the bowls today, taking a look how Wisconsin Badgers matchup against better defensive teams. The Best System we found in any sport is in college basketball and might have to be read twice to understand. What is simple to comprehend is 34-8 record. Willie of the Left Coast Connection stays boiling hot in the NBA and has Best Bet, plus consensus of today's three bowl games. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road teams as an underdog or pick like Washington State, who is a good ball handling team, committing 14 or less turnovers a game, after two straight games forcing opponent to commit eight or less turnovers. How this system work is teams don’t play the same way all the time and in a road environment, sometimes things don’t go their way. This system is 34-8 ATS, 81 percent the last 11 seasons.

Free Football Trend -2) Wisconsin is 0-8 ATS against teams that allow 310 or less yards per game.

Free Selections -3) Willie of the LLC, not only had New Orleans, but also Minnesota and Oklahoma City as winners Friday, raising record to 32-13 with most recent NBA plays. Today he is on Chicago with the +10 at Atlanta. The LLC members are virtually split on Champs and Emerald Bowl, but favor West Virginia by a 2-to-1 margin.

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Three Good Bowls to Watch and Wager On

A tripleheader of bowl game action on ESPN starts at 1:00 Eastern Saturday, pitting North Carolina against West Virginia in the Car Care Bowl. Immediately following will be two schools who are regular bowlers in Wisconsin and Florida State, meeting in the Champs Sports Bowl from Orlando. The nitecap takes us to the city by the bay in San Francisco, with California having to travel a short distance to take on Miami-Florida in the Emerald Bowl. Thus far favorites are 4-4 against the spread and the total is 4-3-1 Over.

Meineke Car Care Bowl - North Carolina vs West Virginia

Back in late October, this was more likely to be a Gator Bowl matchup then pre-New Year’s Day encounter. Both teams lost in November as favorites twice, lowering their postseason options to Charlotte. From a travel aspect, this might work out just fine and be a good matchup. West Virginia (8-4, 4-7 ATS) has the dynamic running game led by Pat White, at 217.2 yards per game. White is statistically the greatest running quarterback of all-time. Big problem for Mountaineers is 3-12 ATS mark away from home vs. ACC foes.

North Carolina (8-4, 6-5 ATS) lived on turnovers all season, but only came up with three in last three games, losing twice. The offense never possessed the ball well and the defense was on the field almost 33 minutes per game. Quarterback T.J. Yates missed half the year with a broken ankle and played well to close the season in win over Duke. Coach Butch Davis teams are 6-0 ATS after no-cover in two out of three affairs.

Why to Watch and Wager

Many in Morgantown are having reservations if Bill Stewart was really the right man to lead this West Virginia football program. The Mountaineers are better on both sides of the ball, but have to play like it, which has too frequently not been the case this season. Running backs Noel Devine and Jock Sanders can scoot with just a small opening and this no-name defense was ninth in the country in points allowed at 15.9 points per game. If the ‘Teers running game does better a little better then normal, they are 36-10 ATS when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt.

North Carolina’s young team needs to hit a few big plays to build confidence and shake West Virginia up. Getting the ball to receiver Hakeem Nicks is the way to do this. The Tar Heels have talent in the defensive line and if they come to play could cause West Virginia problems. North Carolina must match yards with the Mountaineers since they are 7-18 ATS when they are out-gained by their opponents by 100-150 yards.

North Carolina is 12-13 and 9-6-1 ATS in bowls, with West Virginia 12-16 and desultory 6-12-1 ATS, including 0-4 against the number as favorites. The ACC has won and covered five of the six Car Care bowls with the Big East 1-4 SU and ATS.

Bookmaker.com Line – West Virginia -2.5, 46

Champs Sports Bowl -Wisconsin vs Florida State

This matchup is a game for the ages. Bobby Bowden is 79 and Badgers coach Bret Bielema is 38. Wisconsin (7-5, 5-6 ATS), despite winning last three contests was a season long disappointment. A phlegmatic offense was followed by a defense that lost focus in the middle of the year. A shocking loss at Michigan after leading 19-0 set the table for four consecutive defeats and they later managed to blow winnable contest at Michigan State. Cal –Poly missing three extra points in Madison, kept the Badgers from being .500 team. They are 0-8 ATS vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game on the season.

Florida State (8-4, 5-5 ATS) showed signs of returning to the top of the ACC, but made 10 turnovers in last three losses to chuck that to the side. The Seminoles did make a number of improvements this season however. Florida State had a running game that finished in the top 25 percent in the country at 180.4 yards per game. Signal caller Christian Ponder energized the team early, but did not do much past the halfway point of the season. The defense started to look like previous models finishing 14th in total defense, even with Florida hanging 45 points on them. Coach Bowden teams are 19-9 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse.

Why to Watch and Wager

Wisconsin is 6-3 ATS as bowl underdog and will attack the Noles run defense which was exploited in November for 192.6 yards per game. The Badgers for the season averaged 204.9 yards per game and will need quarterback Dustin Sherer to keep his wits about him and find tight end Garrett Graham to help move the chains.

The Seminoles are noteworthy bowl participant with 18-10-1 ATS record and will have speed edge. The Wisconsin offensive line has problems with speed rushers and Florida State has a slew of them, which led them to sixth in the nation in sacks with 36 on the year and second in tackles for loss. On offense, the Noles have to be patient and take what’s given, since the Badgers will likely wear down as they often have this season in the second half.

After a number of blowouts, the underdog is 3-0 ATS the last three years of this seven year old bowl contest.

Bookmaker.com Line – Florida State -6, 52

Emerald Bowl -California vs Miami-FL

Miami didn’t finish as strongly as they would have liked with two losses, and a tired Hurricanes defense ran out of gas, costing backers three spread shortfalls. Miami (7-5, 5-6 ATS) is just 1-9 ATS off one or more straight Overs, nonetheless, coach Randy Shannon is thankful for the extra practice time with his young squad. One element that rears its ugly head every bowl season is suspensions, with one team usually being hit harder than most. Thus far Miami is the clubhouse leader, with five players now suspended. How the team reacts early will set the tone.

In spite of a revolving door under center, California (9-3 ATS) won eight games this season, finishing with a flourish by clobbering Stanford and Washington. The Bears are 8-0 ATS off a home win by 17 points or more since 2006, but one 1-4 SU away from Berkeley this season. This should be a good game to showcase running back Jahvid Best, who was second only to Missouri’s Jeremy Maclin in all-purpose yards. The Bears also installed a new 3-4 defense and they embraced it like honey, finishing in the top 15 in the county in sacks and turnover margin. Cal is 8-2 ATS this season when favored.

Why to Watch and Wager

Miami has only played at home once since the end of October and this is a home game of sorts for Cal being 10 miles awhile. This is the Hurricanes first visit west in seven years and will have to have the running game working with Javarris James and Kraig Cooper working, considering how poor the passing game has been all season. The Canes are just 4-12 ATS after the first month of the season over the last two seasons, but were 4-2 ATS as visitors this year. Miami is 18-13 all-time in bowls and will be an underdog for just the fourth time in 24 lined games.

California has a defense good enough to stifle the Miami offense and possibly create turnovers leading to points. Best is the Bears best offensive weapon and whoever the starting quarterback is for Jeff Tedford has to play within the confines of the offense. Cal is 11-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last three seasons. California is 9-8-1 in bowl matchups with 5-5 ATS record.

The Emerald Bowl has been a rather dull event, but having California will add some like. The favorite is just 1-4 ATS in six year history.

Bookmaker.com Line – California -10, 50.5

Post Hoilday Betting Action

Well at least we hope you had a great Christmas, as we were off our game a bit with 1-2 day overall. Found an amazing system about bowl game totals that is 26-4 since 2004. How do the Jazz perform at home in a specific spot, see below. A newer member of the LCC chimes in a hot streak and gives his NBA best bet. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY OVER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 in minor bowl games played in December. This system rocks at 26-4, 86.7 percent the last five years, with an average total being 80.8 points.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Utah Jazz is is 13-1 ATS in home games after a non-conference game over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selections -3) A low key member of the Left Coast Connection named Willie, bases all his basketball plays on an intricate math formula of power ratings and is 29-13 his last 42 NBA plays. Put him down for New Orleans tonight.

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Motor City Bowl Preview

Central Michigan didn’t end up playing in the MAC Championship, however still landed in the Motor City Bowl for the third straight year. A Chippewas defense that permitted 30.7 points per game, prevented them from repeating as conference champs again. The Central Michigan offense is led by quarterback Dan LeFevour, one of the top dual threat signal callers in the country. The Chips are 25-12 ATS since LeFevour’s arrival.

After a struggling start, Florida Atlantic got hot winning five of last six (4-2 ATS). Quarterback Rusty Smith finally found a groove the Owls took off. Florida Atlantic received this invitation because the Big Ten didn’t have enough qualifying teams to filter down to this bowl tie-in. The Owls strength is passing the ball, doing so for 251 yards per game. They should be able to do this with relative ease, since Central Michigan is next to last in the country in allowing 285.7 yards per game.

Why to Watch and Wager

A high scoring game won’t bother FAU, who is 12-3 ATS scoring 28 or more points. The Owls have lost starters due to suspensions meaning replacements have to step up. Smith was only sacked 12 times all season and should have time to make all the throws and Florida Atlantic is 7-0 ATS vs. awful passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 62 percent or worse.

The Owls haven’t seen as versatile a performer under center since facing Colt McCoy in the opener. LeFevour can make all the throws and is excellent open field runner. Central Michigan is not above taking gifts even after Christmas, with FAU -15 in turnover margin on the season, the Chippewas should take advantage if opportunities arise. CMU is 19-9 ATS in games played on turf over the last three seasons. Because this is a lackluster matchup, take the Over on empty seats in this one.

Bookmaker.com Line – Central Michigan -7, 68

Merry Christmas from 3Daily Winners

Merry Christmas to everyone today, hope you enjoyed our story as a change up. We also hope you enjoyed the 2-0 Tuesday. The Cleveland Cavaliers fit the bill for today’s Top Trend. The System falls below our qualifications, but is still a intriguing way to look at a situation. The LCC has two plays on consensus basis today. Again have splendid day and Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home teams like the Lakers after being beaten by the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games. This system is 36-12 ATS since 2004.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Cleveland Cavaliers are 15-3 ATS after playing two consecutive games as favorite this season.

Free Basketball Selections -3) The Left Coast Connection has dead tie on consensus today, with Boston and Orlando their two best plays.

Merry Christmas from 3Daily Winners

We at 3Daily Winners wish everyone the best on this special holiday and nothing but happiness and good cheer to you. Here is a Christmas Story.

The Three Skaters


In the faraway land of Holland, a baker sadly closed up his shop. He carried a worn sack with a few loaves of bread. Not many people came into the bakery that day, because times were hard and people did not have extra money for fresh bread. The baker had to bring home the leftovers so that they would not go to waste.
"Maybe I can make a nice bread pudding with these loaves," said the baker to himself. "It would be a shame not to use such delicious bread." The baker walked off into the cold, gray afternoon.

The baker's mind drifted to visions of his family. He pictured them all warm and snug by the fireplace, waiting for his arrival. He knew his wife would be a little disappointed with the sales at the bakery, but she would take the loaves of bread and cheerfully make the best of them. He smiled beneath the scratchy wool of his scarf. His eyes watered, from the icy wind and from the joy that his family brought to him.

The baker blinked the tears away and kept walking. When he reached the frozen canal, he sat down upon a log and strapped his wooden skates to his feet. As he secured the straps, he looked down the icy canal. The land seemed to stretch out endlessly before him. The air was crisp and the wind was bitter. The baker shivered and pulled his scarf higher on his face.

About a half-mile down the canal, the baker could see the farmer coming toward him. Soon he was joined by the farmer, who was also his neighbor. He, too, carried a sack. The two men greeted each other quietly and began skating together. Their skates soon fell into a rhythm.

"Have you been to the market today?" asked the baker.

The farmer nodded slowly. "Not much luck, though," he said.

"Same here. I still have a few loaves of bread," said the baker. He turned his gaze down the canal and continued to skate.

The farmer also could not wait to be home with his family. He looked forward to warming himself by the fire and playing with his children. His youngest child, Lily, had been ill, and the farmer wanted to get her something special at the market. But he did not sell many apples and had to bring a sack of them back home.

"Perhaps a nice apple pie will warm little Lily and make her smile," said the farmer to himself.

Times were tough for everyone. It was clear that both men did not need to say much to each other. They knew exactly how the other one felt.

As they continued to skate, the clouds grew thicker. The two men wanted to get home as quickly as possible. Soon they came to where another canal met up with theirs. They could see another figure coming toward them from the other canal. With a wave, they saw that it was their friend, the weaver.

"Hello, gentlemen," said the weaver. He skated right up to the farmer and the baker. They greeted the weaver warmly, and they all began to skate together. Now the sound of the three men's skates was all that could be heard on the smooth ice of the canal.

The weaver had also come from the market, where he had been trying to sell the beautiful blankets he had woven. Since no one had any extra money to spend, the weaver left the market with all of his blankets and no money. He tried to keep his spirits up, however, by taking pride in knowing that his blankets were beautifully crafted and woven out of love.

"It will be wonderful when we get home and out of the chill," said the weaver, trying to start some cheerful conversation.

The other two men just nodded their heads in agreement. Their thick scarves and the biting wind made it hard to talk to one another. They continued along the canal in silence. As they passed an abandoned farm, the weaver suddenly stopped skating. He turned his gaze toward the old rundown barn in the middle of the field. He thought he heard an unusual noise.

"Stop! Listen!" the weaver called to his companions.

The farmer and the baker quickly stopped. They returned to the spot where the weaver was standing.

The three men stood on the icy canal, staring at the old barn. Suddenly a slice of sunlight split through the clouds and shone brightly onto the barn. It was a most unusual sight!

"Listen. Do you hear that?" asked the weaver.

The farmer and the baker held their breath and listened. All at once, the three men heard the familiar sound of a baby crying. It seemed to be coming from the old barn, now cast in an eerie glow.

"It sounds like a child," said the farmer.

"But how could it be? That farm has been abandoned for years," said the weaver.

"Perhaps a lamb was left in the barn," said the baker. "It sounds like a lamb."

The three men heard the sound again and knew in an instant that it was not a lamb. It sounded, most definitely, like a child.

Without another word, all three men stepped off the ice and into the snow. They took off their skates and began walking toward the barn. As they reached the doorway, they could hear the baby's cries beginning to soften as the gentle sound of a mother's voice sang a soulful lullaby. The men opened the barn door without knocking. It was as if they knew that it was alright -- that whoever was inside wanted them to come in.

Inside the barn, thin beams of sunlight streamed through the holes in the roof and walls. There was not a lamb that had been abandoned by the barn's owner, but the scene inside the barn was most incredible.

In the center of the barn sat a young woman holding a newborn infant. She was singing the most beautiful and unusual lullaby. She stopped singing as she looked up at the men. Then she smiled.

The men could not help but smile shyly back at the new mother. They were very surprised that anyone was in the abandoned barn, but even more surprised to see a lovely young mother holding a newborn infant. The three men looked around the barn and saw a man raking hay in a stall. The man looked very tired. After a moment, he stopped his chore and addressed the three strangers.

"It's not much of a home, but we had nowhere else to go," he explained. "We are on our way to visit relatives. My wife had the baby before we could reach our destination."

The farmer, the baker, and the weaver all turned back to look at the mother and her newborn baby.

"Are your relatives expecting your arrival?" asked the weaver.

"Yes, but traveling will be difficult now with the infant. We can't stay here long, though. We have no food, and it is very cold and drafty inside this barn," the man said. He then finished raking a soft pile of hay and laid down a thin piece of cloth on top. Then the man walked over to the mother, took the baby, and placed it on its makeshift bed.

The mother and father gathered around the child. It was obvious to the men that the young family was happy despite their hardship. The man and woman looked lovingly at each other and their new baby.

The family scene touched the three men and, all at once, they took their items from their sacks and laid them on the floor near the child's bed. They smiled at the family, then quietly left the drafty barn. Without a word, the farmer, the baker, and the weaver walked through the snow to the edge of the canal. They bent down to put on their skates, then skated off once again.

Now all three of the men's sacks were empty. They did not seem concerned with coming home empty-handed, however. They felt in their hearts that what they had done was right. Once again, the only sound to be heard was their skates on the ice.

As he skated, the baker thought of his home. The mother and child reminded him of his wife and children waiting to see him walk through the door. He felt blessed knowing that they were safe and warm in their small, but cozy house.

The farmer's thoughts drifted to his sick daughter. How fragile and tiny she looked when he left her that morning, bundled up in her blanket. He thought of the newborn child and how fragile it looked in its young mother's arms. He said a blessing for the young family left alone in that old barn.

The weaver's prayers also went out to the mother and her child. He hoped that his handmade blankets would provide enough warmth and shelter for the family until they could continue on their journey.

The three men were so deep in thought that they did not notice their sacks getting heavier. Slowly each sack was filling, as if someone was dropping items into each one. But the men did not perceive the growing heaviness.

They did notice, however, that they were nearing the village where they all lived. A smile crossed each of their lips, because they knew that they would be home soon. It had been a truly strange, but amazing day.

As they reached the edge of town, the three men stepped off the ice. The crisp snow crunched under their skates. They still did not speak to one another. Each one took off his skates and slung them over his shoulders. Their sacks were quite full by this time, but still not one man made mention of it.

The farmer said good-bye to the baker and the weaver and headed toward his home. The baker and weaver also said their good-byes and parted company. It had been an unusual day, but neither the farmer, the baker, nor the weaver felt like talking. It was as if they all knew what the other one was thinking.

By the time the baker reached his front door, his sack was brimming and very heavy. He walked into his home and found his family just as he had pictured, all huddled around the warmth of the fireplace. When they saw him come through the door, all the children shouted at once, "Daddy! Daddy! Daddy's home!"

His wife walked over to the baker and gave him a warm hug. That is when she noticed the sack he was carrying. "Oh, dear! What a day at the shop!" she said, her eyes wide with wonder.

The baker put down the sack. Immediately cookies and cakes, hams and bread, teas and spices, fruits and vegetables came flooding out! There were also wrapped presents for everyone. The whole family began to cry with delight.

"Oh, Daddy! How wonderful!" cried the baker's daughter.

"Dear, we are blessed!" cried the baker's wife.

The baker had no idea how his sack got so full with such wonderful gifts, but he knew it must have something to do with the amazing scene in the barn.

That night the baker and his family had the best dinner ever. Not only did they have enough for that night, but for forty nights after!

When it was time for bed, the baker gathered the children in front of the fire and told them the amazing story of the family in the old barn on the abandoned field. He described how the sunlight broke through the clouds and shone only on the little barn where they
were staying.

"It was a wonderful sight, indeed!" he told the children.

After he put his family to bed with full bellies and wondrous visions in their heads, the baker sat up and looked out the window. He thought of the farmer and the weaver. He knew that their night was as joyous and amazing as his had been. There was no need to wonder.

For all three men had witnessed the same miracle. They all gave everything they had out of pure generosity and the goodness of their hearts. And even though the winter winds howled outside, it was the warmest night the farmer, the baker, and the weaver had ever had. -- Adapted by Lynne Suesse

©2006 Publications International, Ltd.

December 23 Wagering Action

Officially we won the one play we put out there on the Top Trend, but the system was also a winner, just missing our qualifier to be deemed worthy. For Tuesday we have a system certainly worthy at 85.1 percent and it will take gumption to play considering what NBA team it is. As long as we keep finding perfect trends, we’ll keep riding them and have another in college basketball this evening. Once again we’ll look at how the LCC view the Poinsettia Bowl. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON underdogs of 10 or more points, like Oklahoma City, after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent like Atlanta, after they have played under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games. This system is 23-4 ATS, 85.1 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Niagara is 9-0 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last two seasons.

Free Football Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection has 12 bettors on Boise State and 10 on TCU in tonight’s bowl game. No surprisingly, a total of 10 bettors are riding the Broncos on the money line.

Analyzing Revenge Betting in the NBA

In one of the most famous revenge situations of all time. I imagine everybody who read the classic literature book, Moby Dick, believed Captain Ahab would surely get the best of the big white whale upon their second confrontation. Well, maybe you were like me in high school English class and didn’t wade through all 135 chapters of Herman Melville’s novel. While I don’t know his last name, I would like to thank Cliff, the creator of CliffsNotes which helped me not only get through Moby Dick (yes, the book rivals the size of the whale) but also MacBeth and Les Miserables.

Revenge is one of the most-used, and most talked about, handicapping angles in any sport. While it is widely assumed that having revenge is a worthwhile reason to wager on a team, that isn’t always the case. There are many times there is no advantage whatsoever.

In examining revenge, we need to look at basic angles first. To have revenge, you obviously had to have lost your previous match-up. For this exercise, I am only looking at same season revenge. I am not a big believer in previous season revenge unless it involved the playoffs or perhaps a unique rivalry or game. Chicago losing to Miami in the 2005-06 playoffs and then opening up the season at Miami where they bludgeoned them 108 to 66 is a good example. Or Cleveland after losing in the championship to San Antonio and going to San Antonio last year and winning outright in their opening rematch. A game to mark your calendar is on Christmas when the two teams from last year’s NBA Finals meet for the first time, the Lakers versus the Celtics. You have to believe the Lakers have that day circled.

We start with as basic of revenge there is with no qualifiers other than the two teams have already met one time in the current regular season. Going back to the start of the 2005 NBA season, same-season revenge after losing the previous game shows the team with revenge only winning outright 46.9% of the time. However, what is most important to us is covering the point spread which the team who lost the previous meeting did 51.8% of the time in their next rematch. It is an edge, albeit a very small one. The Over/Under numbers are not discernible with the Over happening 49.9% of the time. Incidentally, none of our revenge game situations include playoff games. That’s a completely different animal.

There is no difference if the rematch happens to be the third meeting of the year. Non-conference teams will meet twice during the regular season doing a home and home split. Teams in the same conference and the same division will meet a total of four times with evenly split on location. Teams in the same conference but not the same division will meet three to four times in the same year.

A common handicapping belief proven to be wrong by the following statistics is to generalize saying revenge between two teams from the same division is powerful. Over the past three seasons it hasn’t been as the team who lost the first match only covers the spread 48.0% of the time in the second contest.

If the two teams are from the same conference but NOT the same division, the revenging team covers 54.6% of the time. Now we are starting to get an edge worth considering. Non-conference same-season rematches have a 54.5% lean to going over the posted Total.

Let’s start doing some drilling down to see if there are some profitable revenge situations. From now on, these games are not number specific but that they are occurring in the same season. First we determine where the location of the previous and current games are. Of the four possible combination of locations, the only one that has any type of edge to it is if the first game was played away from the losing teams’ home arena and now the next meeting is also on the road. Here we have a very nice 59.1% advantage by playing on the revenging away team, a 152-105 three year record against the spread. The Over has a nice edge at 146-115, 55.9%. That mark improves to 61.9% ATS and 56.8% O/U if the game is a non-divisional one.

Where a team with revenge played their previous game directly before the rematch can have a huge influence on the side and the total of the game. If the first meeting was on the road and the rematch is also on the road and our team seeking revenge just played a home game, they cover the point spread 64.0% of the time, 96-54, with the total going over 63.4% of the time in their rematch. That record improves to 40-19, 67.8%, ATS and 40-20, 66.7% OU, if our team lost that previous home game before their return game.

A strong qualifier to always look at is what team was favored in the first meeting of the two teams. In the rematch, is the same team favored? Does one team have that much of a talent-edge to be favored on the road?

Sticking with non-divisional conference teams, a 65.2% winning trend is to back an away dog with revenge if the previous contest between the two teams was also away for the team who lost originally and the losing team was an underdog in both games. This carries an 88-47 record along with an O/U mark of 78-59, 56.9%.

How about the third meeting of the season and our team has lost the previous two games? The terrible “double revenge”! Once again, there is an edge if our team is playing on the road. However, it is just a 56.4% advantage. Make the revenging team’s previous game at home and we move up to 61.1% along with a 56.5% Over bias. In triple revenge, keeping the exact same scenario as our 61.1% trend previously, we get results of 65.0 winners in both the revenging team and playing the Over.

A good trend to keep your eyes out for is when you have a home favorite that won the previous match-up but failed to cover against the spread. While they win straight-up at a nice 109-34 pace in the follow-up contests, they only cover the spread in 39.0% of the games over the past three seasons. And, if they are more than a nine-point favorite, their coverage rate falls to 33.3%.

The turnaround time can be a big factor. If two conference teams met four days ago or fewer, and the road team lost the previous match-up, the Under is a 73.1% winner! Not only does the team have revenge but the other team’s plays and offensive tendencies are fresh in their minds.

Revenge can be good. However, it is best to know which spots are valid winners and which are nothing more than a hopeful situation full of hot air.


Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority is frequent contributor.

The Day after Gambling Gods get Even

It was an awful day for 3Daily Winners and it sent the tone for myself, Paul Buck and many other members of the LCC. Jason was one of the rare birds who had the foresight yesterday, hitting all six of his NFL underdog plays.

Today we supply the results of the LLC consensus for the last Monday Night encounter. The prefect trend returns for a college hoops contest and we have a basketball system that is 79.8 percent, which just misses our cut off of rated plays, but is still worthy of consideration. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST favorites of 10 or more points like Oklahoma, after nine or more consecutive wins, with a win percentage 80 percent or higher, playing a marginal losing team like Rice (40% to 49%). Since 2004, this system is 31-8 against the spread.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Wright State is 8-0 ATS in road games after three straight games where both teams score 70 points or less over the last two seasons.

Free Football Selection -3) For the last Monday Night football game of the season, Chicago has 12 members from the Left Coast Connection in their corner and 11 for Green Bay.

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Packers Underdogs in Windy (Frigid) City

Who would’ve guessed Green Bay’s defense would struggle more than its offense in its first season without Brett Favre since 1992? The Packers are on pace to allow more than 400 points for first time since 1986, and in their nine defeats this season they’ve yielded an average of 24.2 points per game.

While most Cheeseheads have moved on about the trade of Favre to the Jets, they can’t blame Aaron Rodgers for what has been a miserable 5-9 season. Rodgers has completed 63.5 percent of his passes for 3,470 yards and 23 touchdowns with 12 interceptions. It all adds up to a quarterback rating better than 90, ranking him in the top 10 among those with at least 10 starts. He’s had eight multiple touchdown games and two multiple interception games. Green Bay comes into this contest having covered 12 of last 16 NFC North division contests.

But it takes one hand to count how many times both Rodgers, and his defense, clicked in the same game. One of those was Nov. 16 when Green Bay blew out Chicago, 37-3, at Lambeau Field, creating a three-way tie atop the NFC North along with Minnesota. Rodgers completed 23 of 30 attempts for 227 yards and hooked up with Greg Jennings and Donald Lee for touchdowns, and the Packers defense allowed only 234 yards and a second-quarter field goal. They even scored without Rodgers on the field, with defensive end Jason Hunter returning a Kyle Orton fumble 54 yards for a touchdown.

The Packers are 0-4 SU and ATS since that victory, and the Bears are 3-1 since the loss, with three covers. Chicago’s come-from-behind 27-24 overtime win over New Orleans at Soldier Field last Thursday night was clutch and kept alive its playoff hopes. After tying the game with two seconds left in regulation, Robbie Gould won it with a 35-yard field goal. At 8-6, head coach Lovie Smith’s team can tie Minnesota for the division lead with a win, but needs to win this week and next and have the Vikings lose to win the division crown. The Bears are 10-1 ATS in home games revenging a road loss against opponent by 14 points or more.

The biggest red flag for the Bears in 2008 has been their pass defense, which was also a problem area a year ago. Chicago has allowed 3,271 yards through the air and rank ahead of only Kansas City, San Diego, the New York Jets and Seattle in the category. This could be diminished since temperatures are expected to be brutally cold in the Windy City, making the ability to overcome the elements for each player a bigger story.

Bookmaker.com has Chicago has four-point favorites, down from opening six, with the total having plummeted like the temperature from 45 to 40. The Bears lead 89-80-6 and haven’t been swept by the Packers since 2003. Though the weather will be a factor, Green Bay is 11-2 OVER after three or more consecutive losses and the Bears are 17-4 OVER as a home favorite.

Green Bay covers if they can control the Chicago running attack, which can be a stretch for the 26th ranked run defense. If the Packers are to do anything defensively, they must limit the Bears rushing game. The Green Bay defense really needs to find out if they have any linebackers that can blitz, as their defensive backfield has been getting torched having to play man coverage for such extended periods. Besides at 5-9, why not try and at least spoil a rivals playoff chances. The Pack is 8-1 ATS in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points

Chicago covers if their physical offensive line gets a push on the Green Bay defensive line. In the prior meeting, this didn’t happen. Assuredly coach Smith and the staff won’t make the decision to stop the Packers passing exclusively and got pushed around for 200 rushing yards like last time. Chicago has to stop the run first and see how Rodgers reacts in the bitter cold conditions on the road. The Bears are still in the playoff hunt, they must bring the emotion or they could fall to 5-12 ATS at Soldier Field against the Green and Gold.

This week’s Monday Night system is to play on division favorites of seven or less points that have won two games consecutively. Over the last 19 years, this system is 26-8 ATS, 76.4 percent.

NFL Sunday 3Daily Winners Thoughts

A nice comeback had us 2-0 yesterday and we’ll look to nail all three today, starting with a system that is 81.2 percent the last decade. The Top Trend considers how Mike Holmgren’s team will fare in his last home game as their coach in Seattle. Kendall returns being the best NFL bettor we know with his best play for Free! Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST teams like Miami after failing to cover the spread in four out of their last five games, with a win percentage between 60% to 75%, playing a team with a losing record like Kansas City. This system is solid 26-6, 81.2 percent since 2008.

Free Football Trend -2) The Seattle Seahawks are is 0-8 ATS vs. good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points a game over the last two seasons.

Free Football Selection -3) Kendall of the Left Coast Connection is 41-21-1 ATS in the NFL and is playing Tampa Bay as his biggest play on the NFL board.

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Early Football Line Moves

The early Line Moves continue in the NFL after a brutal 0-3 day on the sides, lowering the record to 13-15, 46.4 percent. The Totals did well with 2-1 record, raising season record to 26-19-1, 57.7 percent. I’ll include last week’s college bowl information. South Florida has come down from 14 to 11 points this week and I added one more game from looking into changes close to game time as I said I would.

NFL Sides
Tennessee -1 to +1
Chicago -6 to -4

NFL Totals
Mia/ KC 42 to 40
Cin/Cleve 35 to 32
Atl/Minn 47 to 43.5
Carol/NYG 40 to 37.5
GB/Chic 44 to 41

Bowl Game Sides
TCU Pick to -2.5
Notre Dame +2 to -1

Bowl Game Totals
TCU/Boise 48 to 46

That is all for the first seven bowl games.

A Full Saturday of Wagering Action

A rugged 0-2 day, let’s hope for a better day. I’ll pass along the betting trends of the LLC today in the early bowl games. The Top Trend looks at on of today’s participant’s and it’s not pretty. Today’s Best system is in college hoops and is 85.4 percent. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road teams like Arizona, when the line is +3 to -3, off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off two or more consecutive home wins. The Wildcats are in negative situation, facing a system that is 23-4 ATS, 85.4 percent.

Free Football Trend -2) Fresno State is 1-15 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three seasons.

Free Football Selections -3) The Left Coast Connection consensus looks this way about today’s bowls. Wake Forest has 58 percent backing, Memphis 77 percent, Fresno State 66 percent and Arizona and BYU 50-50.

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Special Night in Big D

The Dallas Cowboys have yet to secure a playoff position and will play their third straight contest against a fully-loaded defensive team, built to stop any offense. But as we have seen in recent weeks, this Dallas defense is the equal of any in the NFL and will have a great deal to say about the last regular season game ever to by played by the Cowboys in Texas Stadium. If Dallas (9-5, 7-7 ATS) has any intention of making a real Super Bowl run, this becomes a contest they have to have.

While in many cities the closing of a stadium who be big news, in Dallas it is dwarfed by stories about Terrell Owens, his latest supposed feud with Tony Romo and Jason Witten and Jerry Jones calling out players questioning their toughness and than later retracting. Just another day in Big D.

What should be talked about is the Dallas defense, which has allowed 13.8 points per game since the bye week. Since being run over by for 200 yards by the Giants in New York, they have permitted only 68 yards per game and Dallas is 6-0 ATS in home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game.

The team wearing the black jersey’s won’t care about any of the nonsense, they just want to lineup, hit in the mouth, knock you upside the head and see who comes out on top.

Baltimore (9-5, 10-4 ATS) has the league’s second-ranked total defense (257.5 yards per game) and third-ranked scoring defense at 15.2 points a game. The Ravens bottled up Pittsburgh for most of the game, until they were unable to solve the Steelers 92-yard closing drive that resulted in a somewhat controversial touchdown, losing 13-9 with under a minute to play. Those kinds of losses can be devastating to a team and Baltimore is 0-6 ATS after a loss by six or less points over the last two seasons.

Quarterback Joe Flacco struggled against Pittsburgh last week, completing just 11 passes in a 13-9 loss, and has another tough matchup in Dallas. If anything, the play of the Cowboys defense, which has harassed quarterbacks for 53 sacks, including eight of Eli Manning, has at least kept the team in contention for the postseason. But as Flacco’s shown, he does not need to dominate from start to finish. He just needs to capitalize on one or two big plays and let his defense handle the rest. The Ravens have covered four of last five road games.

Bookmaker.com has Dallas as 4.5-point favorite with total of 38.5. This contest will be on the NFL Network starting at 8:15 Eastern.

Keys to the Game-
The Baltimore front seven is going to have to have a huge game. The Dallas running game isn’t as strong as it should be, but the behemoths they have are still capable of wearing down defenses in fourth quarter. Make their blocking schemes uncertain with speed and deception and keep the pressure on Romo to make miscues. Flacco seems to have hit the wall with the long season, as his mechanics have him missing high on passes. Work the passing game in shorter progression to build confidence, otherwise Ravens fall to 2-11 ATS as road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points.

Dallas needs to feed off the emotion of the moment and jump on Baltimore, who would seem incapable of coming from behind with style of play. If Romo gets protection, the Birds secondary is damaged, meaning T.O. could keep quiet, at least for a moment with big plays. Running back Tashard Choice is running hard and effectively, give him the pigskin and the Cowboys close Texas Stadium with five straight wins and covers.

Running with the Bowls

Other sports journalists can whine about too many bowl games, sports bettors like us are just grateful for the chance of most action, with 34 sides and totals to consider over the next 20 days. The first four are available Saturday and plenty of tough decisions to made. Navy and Wake Forest start the festivities in Washington, D.C. Two bowl games will be offered in afternoon action, with 7-5 clubs squaring off against .500 teams. In the nitecap, Arizona and BYU matchup that could have a little more spice than your typical pre-Christmas contest. Take note that favorites before Dec.25 are 21-2 and 14-9 ATS.

EagleBank Bowl –ESPN 11:00 E
Navy (8-4, 6-5 ATS) vs Wake Forest (7-5, 5-7 ATS)

The bowl season starts in our nation’s capital without the usual bang, but with more of a whimper. It’s a rematch (any bowls worst nightmare) of Navy and Wake Forest from Sept. 27, when Navy pulled the 24-17 upset catching 17-points on the road. The Demon Deacons turned out to be vastly overrated and are just 13-24 ATS as a favorite. Wake Forest is 5-3 and 4-2 ATS in bowls.

The Navy’s top-rated running game deserves most of the attention at 294.7 yards per game, however many will be singing the praises of the defense off consecutive shutouts. The Midshipmen have been one of the best spread teams for a numbers of years and they are 18-5 ATS in all December games since 1992. A 6-7-1 bowl record is fair, but a 7-2 ATS mark will fatten a wallet.

Why to Watch and Wager:

This is the first time in 63 years Wake Forest is playing the same team twice in the season. You would believe revenge would be a big motivator for the Demon Deacons, who are 20-6 ATS vs. meager passing teams averaging 150 or less passing yards a game. Navy’s defense has to feel pretty proud after hanging eight straight zeros on the scoreboard and not a touchdown scored on them in over nine quarters. Their must have been something about the letter “W” this season, with Wake 103rd in total offense, among five different universities with that letter that finished in the 100’s in total yards gained. The Middies are 17-5 ATS on the road versus poor offensive teams averaging 310 or less yards per game.

Bookmaker Line – Wake Forest -3, 43.5

New Mexico Bowl –ESPN 2:30 E
Colorado State (6-6, 6-5 ATS) vs Fresno State (7-5, 2-10 ATS)

It was another disappointing campaign for Fresno State, who was the preseason favorite to win the WAC. The 105th ranked run defense took care of any hopes of the Bulldogs being extremely successful this season. Fresno State became a steady play against team this season at 2-10 ATS and is on a 1-9 ATS run as a favorite. Fresno State is 10-7 and 6-5 ATS in the postseason, thou 0-4 ATS as faves.

Colorado State won its last two games to become bowl eligible after two losing seasons. First year coach Steve Fairchild’s team should have a chance if the Rams can gear up the running game, being 15-3 ATS when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt. "We still have a lot of work to do here at Colorado State, in all areas of our program, but this is obviously a step in the right direction, and a tremendous reward for our 17 seniors, who've worked extremely hard during their time here in Fort Collins," Fairchild said. Colorado State is 1-4 ATS as a bowl underdog to go with 4-7 record.

Why to Watch and Wager:

Colorado State averages 263.3 yards passing per game with senior Billy Farris at the controls. Fresno State is weaker against the run than the pass, yet lacks playmakers in the secondary with a FBS-low four interceptions on the season. The Bulldogs roll over like a puppy after a spread loss like they suffered in last game to Boise State and are odorous 1-15 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three seasons. If Fresno State gets the running game in order, they should have no problems slugging it out in the trenches against Rams run defense that was allowed 185.7 yards per game, which is ranked 100th.

Bookmaker Line – Fresno State -3, 60

MagicJack St. Petersburg Bowl –ESPN2, 4:30 E
South Florida (7-5, 4-7-1 ATS) vs. Memphis (6-6, 5-5-1 ATS)

South Florida, based in Tampa, will be very close to home in inaugural St. Petersburg, FL Bowl. The Bulls never came together as a team predicted to win the Big East title this season, as they were undermined by -7 turnover margin, in losing four of last five. The South Florida defense did its best, finishing 13th in the country in yards allowed at 291.1 per game. South Florida is 23-15 ATS in non-conference action.

Memphis made another late season push to finish 6-6, winning three of last four contests. The Tigers tamed Tulane 45-6 to have a chance to be invited to a bowl; however are 2-15 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game. Neither team has played in many bowls, though South Florida has an excuse being a FBS member only since 2001. The Bulls are 1-2 SU and ATS and Memphis is 3-2 all-time failing to cover as underdog on both occasions.

Why to Watch and Wager:

It’s hard to say if coach Tommy West is getting the max out of the Memphis program, yet with his continued back luck at the quarterback position, just earning a bowl invite is darn good. West teams have had a penchant for playing well against good defenses like South Florida , with 9-1 ATS in road games vs. defensive teams allowing 310 or fewer yards a game. The Bulls have to travel all of 32 miles to the home of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for this bowl encounter. Quarterback Matt Grothe had a fairly disappointing senior season, trying to do too much with not much help from receivers who couldn’t get open. This is his one last chance for redemption in front of a largely partisan USF crowd. Check out defensive tackle George Selvie, who will likely go into NFL draft as a junior. After scoring only seven points in snowy and wind-swept West Virginia in last contest, the Bulls are 8-1 ATS after scoring nine points or less last game.

Bookmaker Line – South Florida -11, 55

Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl-ESPN 8:00 E
BYU (10-2, 3-8 ATS vs Arizona (7-5 SU & ATS)

BYU is probably mildly unhappy about not winning the conference, yet backers of the Mormon University always enjoy making the trek to Sin City. This will be their fourth consecutive trip to this bowl, thus the enthusiasm of the players is a question mark. The Cougars 17th ranked offense will match wits with the 21st ranked Arizona defense. What ended up costing BYU an undefeated season was a defense that was too slow against faster teams. The Cougars are 1-7 ATS since October.

The Wildcats only had one real bad defensive game against Oregon, allowing 55 points, otherwise were solid. Arizona is a field goal favorite with quarterback Willie Tuitama leading a balance attack averaging over 400 yards a game, which is 3-10 ATS in that role in non-conference play. Interesting to note, the Mountain West was 6-1 and 4-3 ATS in regular season meetings. The ‘Cats are in first bowl since 1998.

Why to Watch and Wager:

BYU has won eight in a row at Boyd Stadium, including two in a row over Pac-10 opponents. This should be the motivating factor for quarterback Max Hall and the offense to play well. The Cougars are 13-3 ATS in road games versus defensive teams allowing 310 yards or fewer yards per game, nevertheless this will be their third consecutive contest away from Provo and they are just 4-20 ATS after a two-game road trip. Count the ‘Cats as excited to be in a bowl game and this might be a prickly encounter as theses two schools have faced off the previous two seasons, splitting the contests. Coach Mike Stoops saved his job for the time being and hopes his team is ready, since they 3-8 and 4-7 ATS away from Tucson.

Bookmaker Line – Arizona -3.5, 59.5

Getting Ready for Wagering Weekend

Came back with a winning 2-1 mark and prepare for a big sports weekend. Our Best Trend looks in the NBA with a dysfunctional team that still manages to cover spreads. Jason of the Left Coast Connection returns on a real streak and gives us his Best Bet for Friday. No outstanding systems in sports today, thus we’ll supply a rare NFL Totals system for Sunday. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY UNDER on home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points, off two consecutive road losses, with a winning record on the season. Tampa Bay is the qualifying team and this totals system is 22-4, 84.6 percent, dating back 25 years for this extremely rare play.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The New York Knicks are 11-1 ATS after playing three consecutive games as an underdog this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Jason from the LLC did not do very well in football this season and started poorly in basketball. To his credit, he kept fighting and retuned some of his methods and over the last 5 days is 24-9, 72.7 percent in all his wagers. He loves the Detroit Pistons and went large on them.

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Making a Case for Betting Good College Hoops Teams

Last week I wrote an article about an easy method to handicapping the National Basketball Association. It is so easy, you don’t even have to be smarter than a fifth grader to do it (I have to give one of my favorite TV shows a free plug in a round about way). Speaking of the Jeff Foxworthy-hosted show on Fox, Friday’s at 8:00, my favorite question I have seen a contestant answer incorrectly was “What ocean is named after India”? Not quite as easy of question as “What state is named after the Mississippi River, but very close. The poor guy, I believe he was an accountant from Toledo, had used up all of his “lifelines” of help so he was stuck coming up with the answer himself. After a considerable amount of thinking coupled with stammering, he responded with “the Bay of Bombay”. How would you like that guy doing your taxes?

Regarding the NBA handicapping article, I had some readers question me if this simplistic method I wrote about was also good for handicapping college basketball games. If you didn’t see the article, the basic premise was to place your bets on teams with winning straight-up records as compared to losing teams. There was a distinct correlation of cashing tickets by sticking to teams with the better straight-up record and staying away from the bottom dwellers.

In college hoops, with having over 200 regularly lined-teams playing 25 to 40 games a season, I went about looking at this methodology a little differently than how I did it for the NBA with its 30 teams. I wanted to keep it very basic but needed to keep the qualifying data set somewhat small.

I felt a good way to reduce risk would be to take a look at teams who have covered the point spread at a good rate over each of the past four years and see if I can uncover any gems that will help me win. While I do believe in longer-term views as for uncovering trends and tendencies, I do also believe that each sport evolves and changes from year to year.

I went to the StatFox website where they have the best collection and history of college basketball statistics that I have ever seen available on the Internet. If you have never been to the StatFox website and you love statistics, you will be making this site a regular stop when you see what’s available. And, even more importantly, the numbers are sortable. They don’t just put up the top 25 or the top fifty in a category, they have all lined teams with virtually any statistic you would want to follow. Statfox.com is one of the best tools any handicapper can utilize no matter what sport they are handicapping. And the greatest thing about it, the StatFox site is entirely free!

I went to the team report page and sorted the teams by their ATS winning percentage. I eliminated teams that did not play a full season of lined games, ones with a point spread every week. You often have a Texas State or Alcorn State that plays just a few lined games against large non-conference schools every year. There is no point in having their statistics skew the results.

I then looked at teams that covered the point spread at least 60% of the time for the entire season. I did this for the past four years. There were a total of 134 teams that qualified at that rate. The number each year was very constant, between 30 and 36 each year. In 2004-05, of the 34 teams on the 60% list, 25 had winning records and nine had a season below .500, then a 28-6 mark in 2005-06 of over .500 teams, and followed by a 30-6 tally for the 2006-07 season. Last year there was a drop-off to only 30 teams total that had an ATS record of 60% or better. Of those 30teams, 23 had winning records. The total for all four years was 28 teams out of 134, just 20.9%, had losing records but still covered 60% or better of their games against the number.
We have talked about betting on teams that win straight-up at a good rate. How about finding teams to bet against? Let’s go back four seasons and see what we can find.

I looked at teams that did not cover at least 40% of their games for the season. Over the four years analyzed, 122 teams in total did not reach our Mendoza line. Of those 122 money-burning teams, only 26 of them had winning records for the season, a paltry 17.6%. Just like in betting on teams with winning records can help you be profitable in your wagering endeavors, betting against teams that have below .500 records can put money in your pocket, also.

Out of curiosity, I took another way to look at this concept. How do very high percentage winning teams do against the point spread? I trekked back to the StatFox team report page, sorted the teams by straight-up winning percentage each of the past four years. I looked at teams that won 75% or better of their games.

Would you believe that 85% of these high-quality teams had .500 or better ATS records? I was surprised the number would be that high. Combined over the four-year span, there were 107 teams that won 75% of their games. Again, these are only regularly-lined teams. Last year there were 27 qualifying squads with only 4 losing ATS marks. In the 2006-07 campaign, not one out of 24 teams had a losing ATS record and only one, Memphis, had a .500 mark covering the number. Three seasons ago it was 6 teams with a below .500 ATS out of 26 at 75% or better. And in 2005-06 saw 28 high-quality teams and just 6 with losing ATS tallies.

Granted, nobody can see in the future to know with 100% accuracy what teams are going to win 75%+ of their games, or for that matter, even have a winning or losing year. However, at this time of the season you should have a very good idea of teams with that potential.

In trying to come up with things that could sink this generalized method of handicapping, my first thought was how do “public teams” do ATS. These are teams with a strong national following, sterling reputation, and who are usually high-quality teams winning year after year. Last year I looked at what I consider the top five “public teams”: North Carolina, Duke, Kansas, UCLA, and Kentucky.

I could find nothing over the past several years that uncovered a high degree of point spread profits betting against them. Last year all five teams had winning ATS scores combining for a 98-70 mark, 58.3%. In fact, I unearthed more profitable spots than negative ones, such as North Carolina since 2000 is 55-24, 69.6 %, as a home double-digit favorite below 30 points.

Well, need to run. My favorite television show is starting. Tonight’s contestant is a dentist from Denver. I want to see how he does in Fifth Grade American History.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority is frequent contributor.

Seven Betting Days until Christmas

Finally got nailed with a losing day (1-2) as our string of perfect trends ended, thus we had to find one and did in the NHL tonight. Today’s Top System is scintillating 88.9 percent winner and involves college basketball totals. Kendall isn’t losing, this is why he gets to stick around with his Free Play. For those that frequent this location, they know Kendall is having sensational NFL season. He is passing on tonight’s contest, initially favoring the Colts, but with all the injuries is waiting for better chance to win. Good Luck.

I’d like to mention to all readers, this isn’t just an information blog, it is a shared information blog. Some of you respond when asked, that’s great, but you don’t have to be asked, just comment on anything you read. All we ask is not be profane, rather be clever, it shows greater intelligence. This is a shared experience, so share!

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY UNDER on all teams like Louisville where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points, after four straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after playing a game where both teams score 80 points or more. This system is sensational 24-3, 88.9 percent.

Free Hockey Trend -2) The Boston Bruins are 12-0 against the money line after having won two of their last three games this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Kendall of the Left Coast Connection has not lost in this spot in fours days (2-0-2) and likes Louisiana Tech to upset Samford outright.

Do the Jaguars Have Bite as a Home Underdog?

A year after winning a dozen games, including one in the postseason, and reaching the divisional round of the AFC playoffs, nobody predicted Jacksonville would fall so precipitously to 5-9 after beating Green Bay. Buried in last place in the AFC South, the Jaguars own poor numbers that reflect their position in the standings. The Jaguars are 20th in total offense, 17th in rushing defense, T-17th in sacks and a turnover ratio of minus-2.

Jacksonville (4-10 ATS), which split its first six games, has won just two of seven at home heading into this Thursday night game at Municipal Stadium. After topping Detroit, 31-21, the Colts have the longest current winning streak in the NFL—seven games—and are approaching their seventh straight trip to the playoffs.

The Jaguars have been chasing Indianapolis (10-4, 5-8-1 ATS) ever since the NFL went to its current division format in 2002 and pitted them as rivals in the AFC South. But that’s not to say these teams have been separated by a wide margin. Even though Jacksonville trails the all-time series, 11-4, all but five of the matchups have been decided by a touchdown or fewer, with the Jaguars 9-3-1 ATS in last dozen meetings.

Indianapolis is one of five teams the Jaguars have beaten this season. It happened in Week 3 at Lucas Oil Stadium. Fred Taylor, who two weeks ago passed O.J. Simpson on the all-time rushing list, moving into 16th place, rushed for 121 yards and Maurice Jones-Drew added 107 yards and a touchdown to lead Jacksonville to a 23-21 victory in one of their highlight victories of the season. Quarterback David Garrard completed 16 of 22 passes for 167 yards.

The Colts knocked Garrard out of the first of two meetings a year ago when they rolled to an easy 29-7 victory in Week 7 as three-point road favorites. Garrard left in the second quarter with an ankle injury and former backup Quinn Gray was picked off twice and held to 56 yards passing on 24 attempts. Seven weeks later, a healthy Garrard (257 yards, two touchdowns) and Peyton Manning (288, 4 TDs) hooked up in an old-fashioned shootout also won by Indianapolis, 28-25, failing to cover the touchdown favorite role.

Both Garrard and head coach Jack Del Rio received hefty offseason contracts, and neither has delivered in the first year of the deal. Just last week Garrard eclipsed 3,000 yards and has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 13-to-10, and Del Rio has been unable to keep problems from spilling out of the locker room.

For the most part, the Colts bring out the best in the Jaguars. Typically they give a great effort and Jacksonville is 8-2 ATS as December dogs against AFC South foes. It will be interesting to see if the Jags use a similar offensive game plan as last week, using tight ends in short passing game and throwing deeper passes to Dennis Northcutt, who had first 100-yard receiving game in four years last week. Jacksonville has not covered consecutive games since weeks 15 and 16 last season.

Bookmaker.com has the Colts as six-point pick, with the total lodged at 44. Indianapolis is 8-2 ATS as road favorite of six or less with revenge, plus 14-3 against the spread after two straight wins by 10 or more points.

Normally at this time, Indy has wrapped up division and is healing injuries for playoffs. Not this year and despite the Jaguars record, this will be good test for Colts run defense, which appears improved, however facing Cleveland, Cincinnati and Detroit might be a bigger reason why they look better. Amazingly, Tony Dungy’s club is only 1-10 ATS versus weaker defensive teams allowing 5.65 or more yards per play.

This will be the final Thursday night telecast on the NFL Network for this season, which will start at usual 8:15 Eastern time. This series is like Charley Brown and Lucy, with Jacksonville being the underdog for the 16th time in a row facing the Colts.