Saturday Betting Info and free advice

An improvement for Friday with 2-1 day and Willie gave a free winner. Today he flips over to the NBA trying to build that bankroll further. The Kansas Jayhawks can win the Big 12 outright with a win; does the Top Trend give us a hint on how they might perform? Also in college basketball, have an 81.2 percent system in the Big East and no UConn and Pittsburgh are not involved. Good Luck.

I understand not everybody is whack job like me, but I would recommend watching about 30 minutes or more of these smaller school conference championships. It really can provide insight for the first round of the NCAA Tournament, if a team is worth taking with the points or could be blown out.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Syracuse off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival, against opponent after a road game where both teams scored 75 points or more. With this 26-6 ATS system going on Senior Day in Milwaukee, no way they don’t send Dominic James out a winner at Marquette.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Kansas Jayhawks are 12-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Willie of the Left Coast Connection was 4-1 in all sports last night, raising his record to 14-5 on current run and is taking the Detroit Pistons to keep winning.

College Hoops Bettor’s Saturday Outlook

The number one team in the country has had a hard time wearing that crown all season and top-ranked Connecticut will have as stiff a challenge as anyone, going to Pittsburgh, who has yet to lose at home and has tagged the Huskies already this season. The outcome matters to Louisville, who could be playing for top seed in the Big East tournament, should UConn fail to win. The Washington Huskies can win first basketball title since the league was called the Pacific Coast Conference and Kansas is positioned to be the surprise winner of the Big 12 regular season. Kentucky and Florida are playing just to be taken seriously, with poisonous finishes to the year. Check Bookmaker.com for the latest numbers on these contests.

Connecticut at Pittsburgh 12:00ET, CBS

Coach Jim Calhoun has been thru a lot lately. He lost a terrific starter in Jerome Dyson, got baited into an embarrassing public discussion about his income and notched his 800th coaching victory. Now he will try and lead his team to no worse than a tie for a Big East regular season title and extract a little revenge against Pittsburgh. Calhoun is still fretting as neither Craig Austrie nor Kemba Walker has set the world on fire trying to replace Dyson. The frontcourt players like Stanley Robinson and Jeff Adrein have shown a desire to perform better. The Huskies (27-2, 13-12 ATS) are 13-0 and 9-4 ATS away from Storrs.

Pittsburgh (27-3, 16-8 ATS) has not handled the No.1 hot potato well dropping games the week after being listed at the top of the charts. This is an influential week for the Panthers, after defeating Marquette and having UConn at home. The upset loss at Providence jeopardized their No. 1 seed possibility and they must knock down a pair of wins to restore luster and still have outside chance to force three-way tie for first place, should Louisville falter at West Virginia. The Pitt guards have to do a better job with the ball and DeJuan Blair will likely have to make a few adjustments after ruling Hasheem Thabeet in last encounter.

Something will have to give with the Panthers 18-0 (8-4 ATS) at the Petersen Events Center and Connecticut 9-0 (6-3 ATS) in true road games. Pittsburgh is 10-2 ATS versus teams outscoring opponents by eight or points and has split last six meetings with UConn at home.

Kentucky at Florida 2:00 ET, CBS

These are two struggling teams trying to fake they are among the best 65 teams in the country. Are Florida (21-9, 9-14 ATS) and Kentucky (19-11, 12-12-1 ATS) really deserving of NCAA bids, possibly, based on the history of the conference, but both have more flaws than what Republicans in the House and Senate think of the new President’s budget plans. The Wildcats have two star players in Jodie Meeks and Patrick Patterson and three warm bodies on the court. No regular contributions have been forthcoming from others, unless you count missed shots and turnovers as part of the total package. This is why Kentucky has three wins in last 10 games (2-8 ATS). Essentially, Meeks and Patterson are like an archipelago and the rest are just drowning in futility. Kentucky is only 2-6 ATS with two days rest this campaign.

Florida is 16-1 (5-6 ATS) at the indoor Swamp (O'Connell Center) and backers have come to understand the Gators. Besides Nick Calathes, on any given night, some different player or players may be a factor on the floor or they may not. Coach Billy Donovan has developed a sore neck, shaking his head back and forth, trying to find any sort of consistency from game to game.

Beating Kentucky in hoops is always a big deal to Florida and they are 7-4 and 6-5 ATS at home. The loser of the SEC showdown might well be headed to the NIT unless they win the conference tournament.

Texas at Kansas 4:00 ET, CBS

I have not always been a big fan of Bill Self as coach, dating back to his days at Tulsa. Always thought he was one of the top recruiters in the country, but his teams always left you wanting more until they won it all last season. If Kansas would have 17-12 record coming into this week, nobody would have raised an eyebrow with the personnel losses the Jayhawks suffered. Yet here we are, Kansas (24-6, 17-7-1 ATS) can win the Big 12 crown and this bunch of youngsters, who have listened to their coach, are one of the few Top 25 teams in the country that is better today than they were a month ago. With lesser expectations, bettors have profited handsomely, with the Jayhawks 13-5-1 ATS as favorites.

While coach Self deserves accolades, it has been a curious campaign for Texas (20-9, 11-15 ATS). A.J. Abrams has been more up and down then expected, the Connor Atchley of the previous two seasons has disappeared and the defensive intensity coach Rick Barnes teams are noted for, has been blown away like wind witches out on the Texas prairie. At least they seem to have found a point guard in Dogus Balbay, who has added a rhythm to the offense and placed players back in normal positions. Texas is only 3-12 ATS against defensive clubs like Kansas in the latter part of the season.

Kansas is 16-5-1 ATS in last 22 Big 12 contests, however the underdog is 4-1 against the number in this Big 12 skirmish.

Washington State at Washington 5:30ET, FSN

Based on how the universities football programs performed, the two schools from the Apple State as thrilled to be included in national conversations concerning basketball. The Huskies (23-7, 16-10-1 ATS) are attempting to hunt down a Pac-10 title, their first in 24 years, while still trying to win the whole thing for first time since 1953. For seniors Jon Brockman and Justin Dentmon, this season has been especially gratifying, after being picked to finish in the middle of the Pac-10 pack. Washington has been far from dogs at the home with 17-1 and 9-6 ATS record, preparing to face in-state rival Washington State, whom they walloped 68-48 on Jan.3.

This hasn’t been the kind of season the Cougars (16-13, 11-16 ATS) had hoped for, never really meshing as a team until late, having won last three league contests. Too little scoring and not enough execution at critical times, has turned too many potential wins into losses. Besides the upset wins of UCLA and Arizona State recently, preventing rival Washington from being outright conference champs would be a tremendous way to close the regular season. Washington State is just 3-8 ATS after allowing 50 or fewer points.

Wazzou has covered seven of last 11 in Seattle.

Louisville at West Virginia 9:00 ET, ESPN

By the time Louisville’s Big East battle commences, the Cardinals (24-5, 17-12 ATS) will know what they are playing for, the outright conference crown or a portion of it. Since being knocked silly at Notre Dame, Louisville has played better defense and taken better shots, improving shooting percentage significantly, in winning six straight (4-2 ATS). Finally, after much harping, the Cardinal players look to have bought into coach Rick Pitino’s wisdom and are playing with the passion and smarts he has been seeking. They will be traveling to a really challenging environment in Morgantown; however they are 7-1 SU and ATS in true road outings.

West Virginia (21-9, 13-14 ATS) has again exceeded preseason presumptions and could cap a super close to the season with an upset of Louisville. The Mountaineers had early season backcourt injuries, which forced coach Bob Huggins to play freshmen Devin Ebanks, Kevin Jones and point guard Truck Bryant. Playing in this Big East laboratory was a test this year and all three have come thru with passing grades. The three ooze confidence and have helped the ‘Teers forge 23-13 ATS record in home games.

It is really difficult to bet against Louisville, with its 38-13-1 ATS mark in the Big East.

Learning From the First Quarter in the NBA

I was participating in a panel discussion with some other handicappers last week on a local radio show here in Las Vegas. Having a couple of beers before the show, (just like in trying to meet women, I always thought having a few drinks beforehand always makes you sound much better) the discussion came around to what happens in the first quarter of an NBA game makes no difference at all. I said it might not in that game, but it definitely can in a team’s next game.

We found some good trends last week where a team in their previous game came back after being down at halftime to outright win the game. There was a definite effect on how the team performed in their next game. Let’s see if we can dig something up when a team is down at the end of the first quarter but comes back to win. The sample is games starting with the 2005 season.

Using the premise that our team was down only by one to four points at the end of the first quarter but ended up winning the game straight up, we looked at how they performed in their next game. To get any results of significance, our comeback team in the first game had to have been an underdog. In their next game, they only cover the spread 43.5% of the time, 123-160. The Under happens in 54.7% of these games. These are nice results for such a basic situation.

We are not specifying locations for either the previous or the next game. If we do add locations to the equation, we get a nice improvement on our Under to 66.7% if the come-from-behind game was on the road and we are now playing at home. But, if both the former game and the next one are both at home, our ATS rate drops to 28.6%. Our team must get a little too relaxed staying at home after their comeback win.

Let’s see how altering a couple of qualifiers can dramatically change the results of a trend. First, we are going to change the deficit at the end of the first quarter from being behind one to four points to five to nine points. Next, instead of the team that rallied and won being an underdog, we change them to have been the favorite. Comparing our previous situation where the first game was on the road and now playing at home and the Under happened at a 66.7% rate, just by changing from a dog to a favorite in the previous game and increasing the deficit, the next game now has completely opposite results with a 62.0% play on the Over!

If the team that rallied and won did it in an underdog role, it is probable to assume they are more focused in their next game and play better defense. However, if the team was a favorite and thus expected to win that game, even being down by a larger margin than the underdog had been after the first stanza, the favorite apparently doesn’t play with the same intensity in their next game. Perhaps an added emphasis is put on the offensive side after having to rally to win, but I do believe that it is easier to improve your defensive efficiency as compared to that on offense.

Now let’s increase the opponent’s lead at the end of Q1 to 10 to 15 points. We’ll keep the sites the same, previously away and now home. With the bigger margin to overcome for the win, the Over occurs 68.6% of the time in our next game. Interestingly enough, with the increase in the Q1 deficit to 10 to 15, there is very little difference between whether our team was a dog or a favorite in the first game. That significant enough of a comeback apparently affects all teams in a similar manner allowing the high Over rate in the next contest.

Since we looked at how teams do coming back to win a game after being down after only the first 12 minutes have been played, we need to turn the tables and discover if there are any trends for teams that blow a first quarter lead.

Our first situation will be a team that is ahead by one to four points after Q1 and ends up losing outright. There was nothing worth noting without adding some qualifiers. Let’s use the same sites that we did before: the first game on the road and the next at home. Let’s make our team favored in the first game.

Apparently in their next game, they want to make up for blowing the early lead as they play good defense staying Under the lined total 66.7% of the time. Just out of curiosity, I wanted to see what affect there might be in their next game to a team that loses a first quarter lead quickly on the way to a loss.

I took a team with a 5 to 9 point advantage at the end of Q1. That good feeling of having a lead quickly vanished as I made them behind in the score at halftime before going on to lose the game. There is a hangover effect with our team going just 65-99 ATS, 39.6%, in their very next game without any additional qualifiers. The ATS rate is lowered to 33.0% if the second game’s type of location is not the same as the first. One is a road game, the other is a home game, in either order.

In this scenario, we get a big wagering improvement when the team that blew the Q1 lead in Q2 are playing their next game without any rest. A pitiful 28.0% spread coverage rate, 11-27, occurs without having any consideration for locations. The Over comes through at 76.3%, 29-9. The record of this trend this season is 6-1 ATS and OU. However, the real icing on the cake is if our team’s opponent is playing the game with at least a day off as then the Over improves to a fantastic 25-3, 89.3%.

Here is another reason to look for who led after every quarter. If a team goes wire to wire leading after the first quarter, halftime, and the third quarter on their way to a win, there is a very good trend on the Over in their next game, if it’s at home. The one other qualifier is the team had to have been an underdog in the first game.

An underdog getting a win where they never were behind at the end of a quarter creates a relaxed feeling about playing defense the next time on the hardwood. The Over is 162-110 since the tip-off of the 2005 campaign, a 59.6% success ratio. If you want to drill down just a little bit more to improve that Over rate, we hit 68.7% if their next game is a non-conference one. Most of the time there is not the same amount of focus when going against a non-conference foe. Our super sweet spot is if the previous game was also played at home, the Over skyrockets to an 86.7% mark, 26-4!

The extra factor of no travel plus the comforts of playing in your arena, and perhaps the chance to go out and celebrate an easy win, can have tremendous influence on a team’s next total. Again, let’s look at the opposite: a team that was behind after each of the first three quarters but ended up winning the game covers the point spread in their next game only 36.7% of the time if that game and the previous game were played at home. Sometimes it pays to go out on the road!

How about when a team starts out really clicking on offense and puts up over 30 points in the opening period. Their offense then goes cold in Q2 and they only tally 20 points or less and go on to lose the game. Apparently, our team loses some confidence if they are now playing their next game as an underdog because they only cover the linesmaker’s number 32.8% of the time. That poor line-covering rate falls to 22.2% if our team was favored in their previous game where they went cold in Q2 after a hot start.

Paying attention to what happens in the first quarter of a game can make you some cash in the following game. You just have to know what to look for.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority did all this work, probably without beers.

Betting on a Winning Friday

I have to admit, I was shocked Arizona not only didn’t cover the spread but lost outright at home to Cal, giving us 1-2 day. Willie of the LCC will try to improve our Free plays with tournament selection. We have another Top Trend from our unbeaten angles and it focuses on the The Valley. Really interesting NBA System, very curious to see if it can improve on 84.4 percent record. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST All teams where the line is +3 to -3, being an average defensive team with 43.5-45.5 shooting percentage allowed, against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5 percent), after three straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 47 percent or higher. The offending team is the Miami Heat and this super system is 27-5 ATS, 84.4 percent and has picked up two more winners this season.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Bradley Braves are 9-0 ATS off a close win by three points or less over a conference rival over the last three seasons and will look to advance the Missouri Valley Tournament.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Willie from the LCC is 10-4 in all sports this week and has James Madison as best play tonight.

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Home court is everything to Cavs and Celtics

Last season when the Cleveland Cavaliers altered their roster to help change the look of the team, this became the first step to changing the mind-set of the franchise. Cleveland for some time had seen the writing on the wall, when LeBron James contract was up, he would be not only interested in getting a maximum deal, he wanted to win championships, not being satisfied to lead the NBA in scoring or other rudimentary details of being a top player.

With additional shuffling of the roster, the Cavaliers have eliminated the 21 game difference between them and Boston from last season and has a two game lead over the Celtics for the best record in the Eastern Conference and they will look to build on that differential with a trip to Bean-town.

Cleveland (48-12, 39-21 ATS) has always been a defense-first team under coach Mike Brown, but this year things changed. The Cavs learned a valuable lesson last season from the defending champions; you have to bring it every night. Cleveland leads the NBA in fewest points allowed at 90.3 per game and field goal percentage at 42.7 percent. Because of their ability to defend, they are 26-9 ATS versus good shooting teams making 46 percent of their shots. With Cleveland having chosen to play hard every game, that explains why they are tied with the best record against the spread and have the best point differential in the league at +9.3.

Like Boston (48-14, 33-29 ATS), the Cavs have made defense their calling card, nevertheless you still have put the ball in the basket. James is having MVP-caliber season and point guard Mo Williams has been a big part in being another offensive weapon, both scoring and distributing the ball. He’s helped cultivate the objective.

“We got one goal,” James said win over Milwaukee on Wednesday. “That’s to win an NBA championship.”

Cleveland is 10-1 SU and ATS against the Atlantic Division, with the lone straight up loss coming on the first night of the regular season at Boston 90-85, as six point underdogs. That night quickly drove home a point for James and his teammates in case they may have forgotten from last spring. Win the home court advantage for the playoffs.

The home team won all seven games between these teams in the postseason last year, which was the main reason Boston was able to advance. This series has been dominated by the home team, with a double bakers dozen total of 14 consecutive home triumphs (7-7 ATS).

The Celtics also know the importance and are struggling some, without their leader Kevin Garnett. Boston is only 4-3 in last seven outings, with two covers. The usual defensive intensity is not their, having surrendered 97.4 points per game, compared to 92.6 on the season.

Boston did light up New Jersey for 115 points in last contest and is 13-4 ATS after a game where they made 55 percent or more of their shots and 12-4 against the spread after scoring 110 or more points. Coach Doc Rivers is trying to find minutes that make sense for and Stephon Marbury and Mikki Moore, their late season acquisitions.

Bookmaker.com has Boston as two-point favorites, with a total of 184. The C’s are 25-5 and 16-14 ATS at TD Banknorth Garden and are 9-0 OVER off a road no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite. Cleveland is 21-11 and 18-14 ATS as visitors and 26-13 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last two years.

ESPN will have the telecast of this anticipated matchup stating at 8 Eastern, with the Cavs 1-8 and 6-2-1 ATS in last nine visits to Boston.

Onward-Ho to Thursday Wagering

What a weird night in college basketball as almost none of the so-called bubble teams secured a victory including Miami-Fl, which gave us a 2-2 day. One team in really jeopardy of having the longest streak of tournament appearances snapped is the Arizona Wildcats and they are in a must win weekend along with playing well next week in Pac-10 tourney and are featured as the Top Trend. No outstanding systems in basketball today, but a 25-5 winner in the NHL goes for Thursday. Sal returns and believes he has the key winner in tonight’s important SEC East showdown. Good Luck.

Free Hockey System-1) PLAY ON road favorites against the money line like the N.Y. Rangers, after failing to cover four of their last five, against opponent having won two of their last three contests. This money line system is 83.3 percent with 25-5 record.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Arizona Wildcats are 9-0 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60 to 80 percent) this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Sal of the Left Coast Connection has nailed 60.7 percent of his last 79 college basketball plays and is playing South Carolina at home.

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What to look for Wagering on the NHL

Ron Raymond of Phoenix Sports.com has been a pioneer in the handicapping business when it comes to on-line presence. Ron is a well-known authority when it comes to NHL sports wagering and it only seems like he has been around since it was just the Original Six. With less then 20 games left in the regular season, thought we would converse with Ron about what teams might be good or bad plays the rest of the season and who might be in or out of the playoffs, come the completion of the season.

3Daily Winners: Let’s start in the East, Pittsburgh has moved up to be among the eight teams that would currently make the postseason in the East with a 7-2-1 spurt and is only six points behind Philadelphia for the No.4 seed, what do you see happening?

Ron Raymond: What happened to Pittsburgh is they lost a lot of their “sandpaper”. What I mean by that is guys on the third and fourth lines, who bring that edge to the game. Names like Ryan Malone, Georges LaRaque and Gary Roberts, those were guys that went into the corners and made room for the superstars like Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby on the ice. Pittsburgh just lost too much of their “sandpaper” guys in the off-season. Now, Pittsburgh superstars are fending for themselves and their chemistry looks poor. In those tight checking games, especially in the division, when the opposing team is taking a run at your superstars, you don’t have the players to respond. Plus let’s face it; Pittsburgh went to the Stanley Cup finals last year and any team that goes to the Super Bowl, World Series or the NBA Finals, it’s tough to come back, since every playoff series in hockey is a best of seven and you are playing every other night, it takes a toll on the body. What you end up seeing is teams like Pittsburgh going through dry periods, which in hockey circles is known as the Stanley Cup hangover.

3DW: Do you see Pittsburgh making the playoffs or falling back?

Ron: I see them falling, with Carolina and Buffalo pushing them. The Sabres lost goalie Ryan Miller leaving open the possibility they could sneak in, but I see them finishing eight or ninth. When Pittsburgh has to play those road games the remainder of the season, I see them coming up empty.

3DW: What about Carolina?

Ron: Carolina is coming on strong and had recent win over Washington. Cam Ward has been playing well in goal.

3DW: So you’re thinking Pittsburgh could be playing golf by late April?

Ron: Pretty much.

3DW: Only Ottawa and the Islanders have scored fewer goals than the New York Rangers, can the Rangers survive and make the playoffs with such a lack of offense?

Ron: The Rangers is a funny situation. If you look at all the teams that went to Europe last year, Pittsburgh, Ottawa and the Rangers, all have lost their head coach. The Rangers are bringing in Sean Avery and the big question is how that will affect the dressing room. Guys like Scott Gomez and Markus Naslund have not produced and you can’t expect the defense to carry the entire load. I would not support the Rangers, especially as a heavy favorite.

3DW: In summation, you see Carolina in and Pittsburgh out in the East.

Ron: That is correct.

3DW: One other question about the East, Boston has been very loose in the defensive end and has only three wins in last 10 games, what has happened?

Ron: What happened was Michael Ryder got injured about a month ago in Montreal and Phil Kessel was also injured. When you start losing goal scorers from your lineup and playing at the pace they were (21-5-3 from Nov. 1 to Jan. 31), there is no way you can keep up that pace, as they don’t have the talent on that team like the Detroit Red Wings or San Jose Sharks. Boston has fallen back more towards their talent level, being among the top 10 teams in hockey.

3DW: Out in the Western Conference, Los Angeles, Phoenix and Colorado look to be finished with recent slumps, of the remaining teams, Anaheim, Dallas, Minnesota and St. Louis, which would be good plays to pick up points and make the postseason?

Ron: Of the teams to be the best bet to make the playoffs, I’d put my money on Dallas. Goalie Marty Turco has come back and since they have gotten rid of Sean Avery, the Stars have had one of the best records since January. The loss of Mike Modano is set back, but Mike Ribeiro has picked up his game and Dallas proved last year they know how to win on the road. Look for Dallas to make run at the playoffs.

3DW: Nashville is 7-2-1 in last 10 games, what do you see from them?

Ron: In a given week, Nashville could go from 8th to 10th and probably back again.

3DW: Vancouver has made a big move, winning eight of 10, are they for real?

Ron: What happened for Vancouver is they got Mats Sundin. Anytime you get a quality superstar like that, he changes the dynamic of the team. I thought Vancouver was a little too confident after acquiring him. They seemed to think Sundin would their savior. It took Sundin about a month to get his timing, especially overcoming a groin injury. Any time a hockey player has a groin injury, he’s not going to trust it, always wondering if he will re-injure himself. Until the groin was 100 percent, he didn’t trust it. Now Sundin is healthy, got his confidence back and the rest of the team is playing well. Vancouver looks very good right now.

3DW: With San Jose and Detroit neck and neck for most points in the West, who do you see coming out ahead?

Ron: I like San Jose. Even though they are not a strong playoff team with unsure goaltending and Joe Thornton having never proven to a playoff hockey player, Detroit lost Marian Hossa for the second time in a week and their 8-0 loss at Nashville could signal a problem since the Red Wings don’t lose by eight goals. I checked my database at Phoenix Sports and Detroit has only lost by six or more goals twice since 1996.

3DW: In looking at the rest of the regular season, is their any wager or wagers you see that might be worthwhile?

Ron: There is always that one team in the playoffs you don’t understand, they screw up the whole party. I’m telling you right now, people better look out for Florida. If I was a betting man and I am, the Panthers are +1200 to win the East and +3000 at Bookmaker.com to win the Cup. If you have an extra few dollars to play with, might be worth looking into. I remember in 2004, I put nickel ($500) on the Calgary Flames at 44-1 to win the Stanley Cup and they got to the Finals. I hedged my bet once they got there, and I was lucky enough to come out a winner. If you have some fun money, put it on the Florida Panthers and let it ride.

3DW: That is great stuff Ron, I appreciate you wisdom and insights and good luck the rest of the regular season.

Ron: Thanks, Doug it’s been fun and good luck to you also.

Conference Tournament Tendencies

It’s March and the Madness began on March 3rd with some conference tournaments tipping off. There are some tendencies that different conferences have shown in the past. While knowing what happened at a certain frequency in the past does not ensure that pattern will continue in the future, I believe it is an additional tool that handicappers can add to their arsenal in their endeavors to make money betting on sports.

I looked at the results of all lined conference tournament games since the 1997-98 season, unless noted differently. In the overall records, I included the results of 33 games from conferences that aren’t lined on a regular basis, such as the Atlantic Sun and Big South. I compared the higher seeded teams versus the lower seeded teams, which does not always necessarily mean I was comparing the team that was favored over the underdog. For clarity, a #2 seed is the higher seed when playing a #7 seed.

It is a lower seed world in the ACC with a 54-41 56.8%, ATS record. There was also a lower than normal straight-up mark of only 64.6% of the higher seeds winning outright.The Atlantic 10 saw the higher seeded squads prevail at a nice 57.8% ATS rate, 67-49, coupled with a 86-33, 72.3%, SU mark.

The Big 12 had a higher rate of the better-seeded teams winning outright, 74.6% coupled with a small bias to the Under at a 54.5% clip.The longest post-season conference tournament belongs to the Big East with all 16 teams participating. It starts March 10th and runs for five consecutive days. Nothing noteworthy except for the lowest success rate for the higher seeds to win straight-up, 63.1%.

Nothing worthy of reporting for the Big Sky Championship except that only the top six schools get in with the #5 and #6 seeds playing at the homes of the #4 and #3 seeds respectively on March 7th. Those winners travel to Ogden March 10th for the conclusion of the tourney.The Big Ten showed a much more competitive landscape with the lower-seeded teams covering at a 57.8% rate. Not surprisingly, but this slow-paced conference saw the Under happen 56.2% of the time.

The Big West has been a very good spot for totals players with a 63.6% Under rate. However, the Colonial Athletic Association outdid the Big West playing the Under, at 68.7%. Conference USA kept with the prevailing totals trend with a 60-38 Under record, 60.2%.

The Horizon League Basketball Championship began Tuesday, March 3 with the first round being played at the campus sites of the #4,5,6 and 7 seeds. On Friday the second round happens with Tuesday’s winners advancing to Indianapolis and the court where Gene Hackman had his players measure the height of the baskets in the movie “Hoosiers”, Hinkle Field House at Butler University. The number one seed has won 15 of the previous 29 league championships including each of the last four. Not surprisingly, the straight-up record overall is 77.7% with an impressive ATS mark of 59.3% since the 1997-98 tourney, back when it was known as the Midwestern Collegiate Conference.

The Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference’s tourney tips off Friday, March 6, with the bottom four seeds playing the first round. This has been a play on the higher-seed tournament with those squads covering the point spread 61.4% of the time while winning straight up 79.1%. Once again we have a prejudice to the Under at 56.4%.

The Mid-American Conference is celebrating its tenth year of holding the tournament in Cleveland and starts March 10th. The higher-seeded teams have beaten the number set by the oddsmaker 58.6% of the time. For a change, we find the Over cashing tickets at a 57.5% clip in the MAC.

Beginning Thursday, March 5th, in St. Louis is the Missouri Valley Conference tournament. We are back to strongly considering the Under with a historical 64.3% track record and a slight bias to the higher seed at 54.1%.

The Mountain West has only been around since the beginning of the 1999 season. Supporters of the lower-seeds smile frequently in the MWC with a 58.6% ATS record. This has been an “Over” conference with 56.1% of the games going over the lined total.

Another early tourney that started Tuesday, March 3rd is the Ohio Valley Conference affair with four games at the home venue of the higher seed. Those winners move Friday to Nashville. Nothing noteworthy from an ATS perspective but the Under does happen at a 62.1% rate.

The PAC-10 stopped their tournament after a four-year run ending in 1990. The tourney was given a second life starting with the 2001-02 season. In those tourneys since the rebirth, the higher seed has covered the point spread a respectable 57.4% of the time with 59.3% of the games going Over the posted total.

With the results from the 1997-98 season on, the Southeastern Conference has also had a spate of Overs, 61.6% to be exact. The higher seed only wins straight-up 64.2% of the time but does cover the linesmaker’s number at a 55.9% frequency.

The only thing you need to know about the Southern Conference Tournament since 1998 is to bet the Under. If you had done so blindly, you would have won 70.4% of your wagers. The Sun Belt Conference’s bottom ten teams start their tournament at the campus of the higher seed on Wednesday, March 4th. The winners of those games travel to Hot Springs to start back up on March 8th. The higher seeds win outright 73.1% and are 57.8% ATS.

A healthy 61.2% of the games go Over the total.The Western Athletic Conference has no edge to report in their tournament games. The WAC starts tourney play in Reno, NV March 10th.

Since the 1997-98 season, the West Coast Conference Tournament has produced 60.5% ATS winners on the higher seeds with 54.3% of the games topping the lined total. This year the WCC moves to a completely neutral site in Las Vegas with tip-off Friday, March 6th.

In looking at all of the tournament games for the conferences broken down by the line of the higher seed, big favorites of 15.5 to 19.5 points covered the point spread 54.8% of the time but faves of 20 points or more only won ATS 38.8%. At 15 points and below, I normally break down the groups by possession, three-point increments. Teams laying 12.5 to 15 points only had a success ATS rate of 43.5%. However, the sweetest area was the 9.5 to 12 point faves beating the number 61.5% of the time. No other line-group had a 54% or better rate, betting on or against, except for two-possession underdogs, getting 3.5 to 6 points. No, it wasn’t favorable to the dogs as they only beat the spread 43.1% of the time while winning 31.8% of the games outright.

As for tendencies in totals, the only 4% or more variance from 50% was with lined totals of 160 or higher, 57.1% Under, and a 55.7% Under rate with games lined in the 130’s.

The non-regularly lined conferences had interesting marks in the games that have been lined in the past few years. While the higher seeded team had a 20-12 SU mark, their ATS record was a dismal 11-21. The Under posted a 19-13 record.

Regarding games that were played in a venue that was a true home-court advantage, other than a SU record of 76.7%, overall there was nothing noteworthy. However, breaking it down by the line of the game, home favorites of 9.5 to 14.5 points covered the point spread 61.6% of the time, 45-28. There were only 6 outright upsets out of the 74 game sample. Big faves of 15+ points still covered 55.6% of their games. Home faves of two possessions, 3.5 to 6 points, also did well at a 56.9% rate. The same can’t be said for home teams from pick’em to 3-point faves as they covered the point spread just 38.7% while winning SU only 53.1% of the time. Underdogs on their home court only won straight-up 34.6% of the games while covering an exact 50%.

Enjoy the next five weeks. For college hoops fans, this is the best time of the year.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority did the research for this article.

Time to Whack'em Wednesday

Ah, what’s that smell, oh yes, the smell of success after a 3-0 day. I can assure you we won’t go 3-0 today, since we will have four plays for Wednesday. We get two plays out of today’s best System, which is a shade over 80 percent the last four years in college basketball. The Perfect Trend pops up in the NBA and the results have been definitive. Free Play is forthcoming. Good Luck.

Like to give a shout out to “Prodegy”, who has been providing winners for readers in the Comment section. Thanks Prodegy, we appreciate it.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home teams as a favorite or pick after a cover as a double digit favorite, in March games. This timely system is 37-9 ATS, 80.4 percent since 2005 and yields two plays, both in the Big East, Pittsburgh and West Virginia.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Golden State Warriors are is 0-9 ATS in road games after scoring 110 points or more this season, losing by an average of 17.6 points per game.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Marty’s pick is Miami-Fl. to keep Georgia Tech grounded.

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No Trouble Tuesday

That feels better, a 2-1 day, thanks to the Citadel, where football TV analyst Paul McGuire attended school. Have sweet system that is 87.5 percent in pro hoops the last five years and hopefully another free winner from Marty. Weber State looks to continue winning ways as today’s Top Trend. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON underdogs of 10 or more points like Memphis, after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games. In the last five seasons this NBA system is 14-2 ATS, and is further supported with the Lakers being 2-12 ATS off consecutive road losses.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Weber State is 12-1 ATS after two or more consecutive wins this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Marty comes right back with Oklahoma State in college hoops tonight after yesterday’s winner.

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Things to Ponder Betting Futures for Baseball

In many parts of country, another long winter just won’t end. With the cold and snow, you like all your neighbors and co-workers have had more than enough. One very good sign of future weather changing events is the calendar has turned over to March, which means spring training baseball is in session and the colder days will be fewer and further between. Most teams also do either radio or television broadcasts from Arizona or Florida, creating an even greater fever pitch for spring to arrive.

Though baseball bettors pale in comparison to football brethren, there are many who enjoy the day to day grind of trying to beat the oddsmaker and relish the chance to go at it every day. Before you can get to that point, taking stock and studying futures odds gives you a good feel for each team. Here is the list of the most recent odds to win the National League pennant, with the American League arriving next week. (Odds found at various sportsbooks)

Arizona Diamondbacks +650

Arizona has assembled a fine collection of talent, which though still young, should start to produce more consistent results with the experience they have acquired the last few seasons. Brandon Webb and Dan Haren comprise potentially the best one-two punch in baseball at the top of the rotation and if hitters quit trying to jack everything out of the park and hit for better average, no reason the Diamondbacks shouldn’t win the NL West and be solid wager to be in contention for NL crown.

Atlanta Braves +1000

The Atlanta Braves lost 90 games last season and are trying to work back towards contention in unorthodox ways. Derek Lowe has 106 wins since 2002 (tied for third in baseball) and is now the ace of the Atlanta staff. Kenshin Kawakami is a former Japanese Central League MVP and will be called upon to shore up starting pitching. Offensively, outfielder Jeff Francoeur must recover after below average year or too much of the responsibility falls to Chipper Jones, who turns 37 in April and hasn’t played 140 games a year in five seasons.

Chicago Cubs +275

Betting on the Cubs to have another excellent regular season should not be an issue; it’s the postseason that causes fans of Cubbie blue their greatest concern. With no obvious needs in the batting order and in the rotation, how Carlos Marmol holds up as the closer will be watched closely. That is not to say they don’t have other question marks like Kosuke Fukudome and Milton Bradley, however Lou Pinella and Cubs will be judged by how they perform in October, should they get there.

Cincinnati Reds +1600

The old guard is gone and the youngsters have taken over in the Queen City. If Cincinnati fans are skeptical, it’s understandable after eight consecutive losing seasons. If Aaron Harang returns to normal and Edinson Volquez , Johnny Cueto and Micah Owings continue to mature as starters, this club could be surprise in the NL Central.

Colorado Rockies +2500

Did the Colorado Rockies really make it to the World Series in 2007 or was that a mirage? This Denver club was sizzling for about six weeks at the end of that season and returned to being Colorado last year with 74 wins. Manager Clint Hurdle, who is in the final year of contract, has stopped short of saying players were complacent after Fall Classic appearance, yet you have to ask, how can a team that has accomplished almost nothing be complacent? The Rocks are picked fourth in the West which seems about right.

Florida Marlins +3000

Just think if Florida fans actually gave two cents about their baseball team and the Marlins ownership has enough money to keep talented players. Another year of purging players scheduled to make a few extra bucks, only has allowed the seemingly endless supply of talented players coming up through the farm system to make the big club, without much a drop in the standings. Shortstop Hanley Ramirez is the franchise player and his supporting cast is pretty solid. The rotation looks better than most in the National League and closer Matt Lindstrom can bring the heat as fast as summer day in Miami.

Houston Astros +4000

A few preseason magazines have Houston rated as high as third in the Central Division, but oddsmakers are not buying it. Any pitching staff that has Mike Hampton on it can’t be considered a threat and if a baseball team is supposed to be strong up the middle, than how do the Astros deserve any consideration?

Los Angeles Dodgers +800

The Dodgers are still a slightly above average ball club even if Manny Ramirez does decide to sign with the club. Manager Joe Torre watched his club mature late in the season and the best thing they have going again this season is playing in the NL West. If outfielder Juan Pierre can draw more walks and shortstop Rafael Furcal can stay healthy, L.A. can place pressure on opposing defenses and the middle of the order will see more fastballs. Pitcher Chad Billingsley is off 16-win season, but is the 24-year old really ready to be anchor of staff?

Milwaukee Brewers +1700

Off a 90-win season, there should be a lot of excitement surrounding the Milwaukee Brewers right? Instead the Brew Crew is shrouded in relative obscurity. The starting rotation is fair, but who is the bell-cow that can stop a losing streak? If the last place San Diego Padres weren’t willing to pay closer Trevor Hoffman in a big ballpark, how does he figure to do in Milwaukee? The Brewers have plenty of free swingers, too many in fact that hurts offense. Oddsmakers number tells the story of this club for 2009.

New York Mets +275

New York occupies new surroundings at Citi (bailout) Field and believes they have the right combination in the bullpen to overcome what have been serious woes the last couple of seasons. Francisco (K-Rod) Rodriguez brings his 62 saves from a year ago to the Big Apple and J.J. Putz could be the most intimidating setup man in baseball. The everyday lineup still have flaws, but as long as Jose Reyes, David Wright and Carlos Beltran continue to perform, the Mets are legit choice to potentially be NL champs, if they don’t fold in September again.

Philadelphia Phillies +550

It has to drive Mets fans crazy that Philadelphia has sped by them twice and are the defending World Series champions. The game of baseball has changed in trying to pick a World Series contender. Today, keep yourself on the fringes of contention and make September push. The Phillies were 24-6 in last 30 games including post-season and return the nucleus of team that was underrated a season ago. They were second in runs scored and had best bullpen ERA in the National League, plus best stolen base percentage in the majors (84.5 percent on 161 attempts). No reason to believe they shouldn’t be contender again, especially knowing they can bypass New York.

Pittsburgh Pirates +5000

Have to give the Pirates credit; they are consistent, having tied the Phillies record (1933-48) of ineptitude, with 16th straight losing season. 2009 looks like a slam dunk to break the record, as Pittsburgh has little or no farm system to speak of and trades best players for hopefully potential young players that could turn franchise around. It’s not working!

San Diego Padres +4000

Divorce can be messy and nowhere is that more evident than in San Diego. Owner John Moores is trying to comply with California laws of community property, with his soon to be former wife Becky and the Padres are caught in the middle. Jake Peavy will be the opening day starter for San Diego, but don’t expect him to be in Padres uniform by the All-Star break. This cash-strapped organization has many players who may or may not have major league ability, nevertheless will get a shot because of troubles.

San Francisco Giants +1200

The Giants number appears to be too low considering the everyday lineup in less than intimidating. What excites most followers is the pitching staff potential in a weak division. San Francisco has the current Cy Young winner in Tim Lincecum, who won’t be 25-years old until almost mid-season. Matt Cain’s record would improve with run support and general manager Brian Sabean views the Randy Johnson signing as two fold solution. Hopefully, he can help straighten out fellow lefty Barry Zito and Johnson should enjoy spacious area from left-center to right-center.

St. Louis Cardinals +1200

St. Louis won 86 games last season despite having no bullpen to speak of and a frequently patchwork rotation. Though some of the issues that derailed the Cardinals last year still exist, at least answers are possible. Chris Carpenter is the trump card manager Tony LaRussa needs for starting staff. It would be terrific if Carpenter returned to Cy Young form, however having him as reliable No. 2 or 3 starter would not be bad alternative. La Russa also hopes to find the right combination at short and second and have Rick Ankiel play centerfield all year. If closer Chris Perez emerges, could challenge rival Cubs for first place in division.

Washington Nationals +5000

So much for a new ballpark helping Washington out after winning a grand total of 59 games last season. Injuries played a part in the 14-game decline, nonetheless, the Nationals are a long way from entertaining ideas of being .500 club and a new general manager will have to hired after Jim Bowden resigned amid a cloud of suspicion, sending the team in a new direction yet again.

Slower Day in Sports Betting- Just like most work Monday's

No question we have been in a slump of late. Found a really interesting first half system in the NBA. Though this won’t officially count, thought I would as least pass it along because of the record. A thin day in both the NBA and college basketball, but did find a perfect trend in college hoops. Free Play up later. Good Luck.

Forgot to mention spot on call on Geoff Ogilvy to win the WGC golf tournament. Sometimes you get lucky.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY UNDER on teams like Cleveland in the first half line, revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite and have a winning percentage of 75 percent or higher, playing a marginal winning team like Miami, at 51 to 60 win percentage. This first half system is 24-4, 85.7 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Citadel is 11-0 ATS in road lined games this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Marty of the LCC knows we have had troubles here with free plays and assures me Citadel -5 is winner tonight.

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Manny Being Lazy

I honestly don't think Manny Ramirez will be on a Major League Baseball team when the 2009 season commences on Sunday, April 5.

Ramirez rejected a two-year $45 million dollar offer from the Dodgers on Thursday evening. This was an increase from L.A.'s original offer of two years, $37.5 million and an extension of the team's second attempt that was put on the table at one year, $25 million.

I think Ramirez and his slimy, Gollum-like agent Scott Boras will hold out until they see a three-year deal in front of them at the very least.

Manny is content with being Manny, and if that means prolonging his offseason vacation in whatever Latin America country he is sipping on umbrella drinks in I'm sure he won't mind having another round.

I really do believe Ramirez could sit out for the first few months of the season because he is that lazy. Seriously, you've seen the guy play left field, some days he isn't even worthy of a spot on a men's softball league roster.

Unless he was the designated hitter.

Because when Manny steps into that batter's box it's all business. There is no denying, the guy can flat out rake. Ramirez is one of the top three hitters in the game and you could argue even the best. If anyone can get away with missing spring training or more, and come back as a ballistic ball-basher, it is Manny.

I think he will take advantage of a few extra siestas in the early stages of 2009 and then see which team really needs him. As clubhouses, rosters and injuries begin to shake out the demand for Manny will increase. If Ramirez somehow stays out until the All-Star break then he could be auctioned to the highest playoff-contending bidder.

Dodgers owner Frank McCourt said that he feels that his organization is "negotiating against (themselves)" at this stage of the game. He is right, and every time they throw out another offer, the price tag for Manny keeps inflating.

If Los Angeles does finally land the biggest fish in the free agent pool, they will win the NL West. If the San Francisco Giants (the other team supposedly shopping in Manny's Market) make a push, they will take the division because all that club needs is one bat in the lineup with Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Randy Johnson taking the mound every few days.

Again, I don't expect to see Ramirez lacing up any cleats until at least a few weeks into the season. And the longer Manny sits, the more rested he will be for a playoff run and October.

Writer Scott Cooley offers his thoughts here at 3Daily Winners and other locales.

Notre Dame Needs to have Fight at South Bend

Notre Dame was left for dead (playing in the NIT) after not even being competitive at UCLA, losing their seventh straight game, being blistered by the Bruins 89-63 on Feb. 7. After being ranked in the Top 10, the fall from the hierarchy of college basketball was complete. The Irish players had little fight on the west coast and their body language suggested the squad had lost complete confidence and was feeling sorry for itself. Without going into details, coach Mike Brey said he challenged his team to see if they could still be good enough to earn a NCAA tournament berth. While the world had written off Notre Dame, they found confidence and courage.

It started five days later at home against highly ranked Louisville in the Joyce Center, where the team that had looked so impressive in late November remerged. Notre Dame made the Cardinals look like DePaul, in steamrolling them 90-57. Suddenly, somebody besides Luke Harangody was making shots. Kyle McAlarney stopped forcing off-balance heaves, Ryan Ayers found the bottom of the net instead of clanging the rim with his attempts and Tory Jackson started attacking the basket again.

Notre Dame is 16-12 (8-15 ATS) having won four of last six and their loss at Connecticut, whom they essentially played even with for 38 minutes, probably earned respect among voters on the Huskies Senior Day. With two more wins, they are at the presumed magic number of .500 in the Big East to at least give themselves a chance for bid.

The Irish return home where they are 11-2 (3-5 ATS) to take on Villanova (23-6, 14-11 ATS). Both the Wildcats and Notre Dame are playing the dreaded Saturday-Monday Big East turnaround and the Irish are one of only two teams that have had this schedule four times in the league. Harangody and his teammates are 4-12 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a game this season and are the only team in the Big East that has played at Connecticut, at Pittsburgh, at Louisville and at Syracuse. “You have to take it into consideration," Harangody said.

Don’t expect Villanova to be pleased coming into South Bend. The Wildcats still have visions of earning a first round bye in next week’s conference tournament, but those aspirations took a monster hit after shooting a season a low 33.3 percent, in shocking 56-54 home loss to Georgetown, who had lost nine of previous contests.

"I thought we played hard but we didn't execute and didn't adjust to their defense, “ coach Jay Wright said. "They played better. They knew our personnel and did a great job of playing our personnel and executing their game plan." Villanova could still finish fourth and earn the double bye into the quarterfinals; however two wins and a numbers of events would have to go perfectly for them. After converting just 3 of 16 three-point shots, ‘Nova is 21-8 ATS after a game where they made 20 percent or less beyond the arc.

Bookmaker.com has Notre Dame as 3.5-point favorites with the total at 159. Villanova would seem to have no problem playing in a high scoring affair and are 6-0 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 77 or more points per game in the second half of this season. The Irish are not nearly on as solid a footing with 4-8 ATS record as a favorite (8-4 SU) and 1-5 against the spread off a cover.

This is the last Big Monday of the year on ESPN and Scottie Reynolds is key for Villanova. He was 2 for 10 against the Hoyas, for a dozen points. When he scores 18 or more points, the ‘Cats are perfect 9-0.

The action starts at 7 Eastern and both teams need a win if they hope to accomplish their goals.

Sunday info at your service

All my whining about Free plays not winning can stop as this was our only winner yesterday. Just can’t seem to get over the hump. Slick Rick has another Free Play, this time in the SEC. The Detroit Pistons are in a perfect negative Trend and today’s best System takes a gander at the big one in the Big 12. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Missouri, off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival against opponent after a road game where both teams scored 75 points or more. This system is 25-6 ATS, 80.6 percent since 1997 and is making first appearance this season.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Detroit Pistons are 0-11 ATS on Sunday games this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Slick Rick of the LCC gave us our only winner yesterday so let’s hope he’s right with Florida.

Two Has Been’s Trying to Hang On

The Detroit Pistons and Phoenix Suns have been prominent teams in the NBA playoff picture for years, but their fall from hierarchy this season has been swifter than Mike Meyer’s recent film career failures. Both front offices tried to make adjustments as their fortunes were changing and the results have been less than positive. Both are in action Sunday afternoon and each is trying to find one last bit of magic to make a playoff run.

It only figures the Detroit Pistons are not hitting on all cylinders and are very reminiscent of General Motors and Chrysler, totaling up the losses. This is a club in turmoil. Rasheed Wallace returns after sitting out a one game suspension for reaching the league limit on technical fouls and has had returned to the ‘Sheed of old, being combustible player that has own agenda and snaps when restraint would be more beneficial to the team.

Richard Hamilton wants to see a change scenery, not leave Detroit, just not start the game from the bench and return to starters role. When Hamilton was suffering from groin injury he agreed to come off the bench if it helped the team.

"I said I would come off the bench as long as we win," Hamilton said. "But we've been losing. We are 4-12 (4-12 ATS also) with me coming off the bench. Something's got to give. Something's got to change. I am on board with doing whatever for the team but coming off the bench and we're not winning, that's something totally different." It turns out Rip got his wish, but possibly by default as Allen Iverson has been sent to the plastic chair, in part because of an ailing back. This means A.I. is coming off the bench for the first time in his career and you already know how well he’s going to take that demotion.

Sports bettors have noticed the spread losses also, though the Pistons are not as pitiful on the road at 13-14 and 14-13 ATS. Detroit will be in Boston for a 1 Eastern start on ABC and they are 8-18 ATS against teams with winning records this season and off the charts awful 1-9 against the spread in the second half of the season. The Pistons are a nine-point underdog at Bookmaker.com with a total of 189.

When Alvin Gentry agreed to take over the Phoenix Suns as coach, he probably believed a change to more preferred style would alter the fortunes of Phoenix and maybe they could make enough defensive stops with all the offensive firepower still on the roster. Yet, like reaching for a car door handle in July in downtown Phoenix, the Suns have been burned with bad luck.
In less then two weeks, All-Star Amare Stoudemire has been lost for the season, Steve Nash has gone down with a sprained ankle and what was already a thin bench has been stretched beyond reason. With Nash sitting, this means Goran Dragic and Alando Tucker are on the floor and suddenly the Suns take on a Timberwolves look.

If that weren’t bad enough, Grant Hill is hopelessly mismatched as a power forward and it is starting too make more sense why teams as Golden State and Charlotte were willing to trade Jason Richardson. As the losses have mounted, the Big Cactus (Shaquille O’Neal) has become a little more disinterested, since he wants to plays for rings, not to make the playoffs.
The Suns are 17-11 and 11-17 ATS at home and are 6-16 ATS after scoring 100 points or more three straight games this season. Having to face the best team in the NBA, the Lakers, twice in four days, is not what this team needs. Phoenix is 3-11 ATS when playing their third game in four days this season.

The Lakers are road favorites and have taken six of last seven with 5-2 ATS record versus the setting Suns. This Pacific Division tilt starts at 3:30 Eastern.

Saturday Specials

Well, .500 beats the heck out of zero, but is only halfway to where we want to go. Have a system play that is 88.5 percent in college hoops and has the look of winner as long as the favorite is interested. James Madison was our fourth president and makes a good play off being an underdog. It’s about time we hit a damn free play. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON road favorites of 10 to 19.5 points like St. Mary’s, who own an eight point or bettor point differential, against a terrible team like Loyola-Marymount, who is just the opposite (- 8 or greater point differential) after 15 or more games and allowing 30 points or less in the first half in two straight games. That is a lot to let sink in, but it has been worth it at 23-3 ATS, 88.5 percent since 1997.

Free Basketball Trend -2) James Madison is 13-2 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Slick Rick of the LCC is laying the lumber on Western Kentucky.

Let's Start the Weekend with Winners

We have certainly hit a stretch of poor action after another no-winning day. I have an awesome system today that is 87.1 percent and 5-0 this year, but please check the status of the players on selected team before passing judgment. Throwing two perfect NBA Top Trends at you today. I have an NBA play that will be my largest play of the season in Free Picks. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home teams like Boston, who own a point differential of seven or more points per game against an average team like Indiana (+/- 3 PPG differential), after a loss by six points or less. I would like to believe 27-4 ATS, 87.1 win percentage should float anybody’s boat.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Cleveland Cavaliers are 10-0 ATS off a road loss this season and Minnesota is 0-9 ATS versus defensive teams forcing 14 or fewer turnovers a game, in the second half of this season

Free Basketball Selection -3) I’m lovin’ the Lakers against a Denver defense that has allowed 114.7 points in last four games.

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World Golf Championship Betting Blog –Friday

No, those wallowing sounds you heard weren’t the executives for the Golf Channel and ABC crying and moaning about their precious commodity Mr. Woods being eliminated (though it could have been), it was just the local coyotes howling. Tiger’s loss did prove he is human after all, that even a well tuned machine like him needs to play in competitive situations in order to get back to the top of his game after such a long layoff. Though this has nothing to do with the outcome, it is noticeable Woods has made a swing change with his irons. His feet are now closer together and left foot slightly open, which is designed to reduce the stress on the knee.

Besides the Tiger excitement and upset, three other matches went into extra holes, all won by seasoned veterans, Geoff Ogilvy, Luke Donald and Stewart Cink. Much like betting itself, match play shows you can be on the right or wrong side and still come away victorious or with a hard luck loss. Anthony Kim has an eagle and six birdies and lost and Sean O'Hair shot one over par and won his match against Boo Weekley.

Because were down to eight matches, the action doesn’t start to 12:45 Eastern, with some exceptional matchups. Probably the best matchup is Luke Donald and Ernie Els. Both players look to be at their best and Els now has the added benefit of not having to worry about Tiger, as has been his penchant in recent years. Els at -125 looks very tempting.

Phil Mickelson and Stewart Cink is another dandy, with two tough hombres. Most probably don’t remember Cink lost to Woods in the finals last year and Mickelson, isn’t playing to his fullest abilities, and yet keeps on grinding out wins. Take Lefty in a tight match.

My pick to win the tournament, Geoff Ogilvy, runs into the most dominate player, at least in terms of outcomes today. Camilo Villegas first two matches have been blowouts 7and 5 and 5 and 4. Villegas has the look of a champion and is actually a -120 favorite today.

Will Tim Clark have the same steely determination today? He’s a -125 favorite, however I believe tracking down a Tiger leaves you a little flat and Rory Mcllory picks him off.

My picks have been strictly play against material at 3-9 and here is what I see today.

Mickelson -140 over Cink

Poulter -130 over O’Hair

Furyk -155 over Fisher

Second Half NBA Comebacks and Failures

How many times have you heard somebody say “just watch the final five minutes of the game” when describing the NBA? The reasoning behind this statement is basically anything can happen for the first 43 minutes and it really doesn’t matter. Leads come and go, sometimes even quite large leads.

Since the 2003 season, do you know what the largest lead a team had in a game that they ended up losing straight up? (hint: it happened this season) I’ll give the answer at the end of the article. Maybe watching the final five minutes of a game is fine for a fan, but sports bettors need to know more about the dynamics of a game to assist them in handicapping.

I like to look at basic occurrences in a previous game or games and see how a team reacts in their next game. A dynamic that happens frequently in the NBA is when a team comes from being behind by a big margin to win the game outright. I wanted to see if there were any angles worth noting in a team’s next game after such a comeback victory. It would seem like a good spot for a letdown since the team has to be feeling pretty good about themselves to snatch victory from the hands of defeat. Plus, a letdown could occur as a team might have expended quite a lot of energy in their comeback. Starters might have played longer than normal so physical fatigue could be an issue. So could mental fatigue as comebacks require tremendous focus and intensity.

The time frame I used for my research was the beginning of the 2003 season onward and did not include any playoff games. I started with a basic situation of a team in their previous game being down by ten or more points at halftime but who came back in the second half to win the game. Teams that had this type of win in their previous game only covered the spread 41.8% of the time, 110-153, in their next game. This is an exceptionally easy angle to look for that has produced 58.1% winners betting against comeback winners since 2003. The Under had a slight edge at 52.1%.

I could end this article here and be pretty happy with providing that 58.1% stat all by itself. (it would also save me hours of work!) But, as always, it is good to try to find additional examples of winning angles to make money with.

I wanted to use halftime scores as they are more etched into players' minds than just taking the biggest point deficit during a game. There is discussion at halftime between coaches and players about first half-performance and how to play the second half with new strategies and ways to attack and defend the other team.

I did research on what happens in a team’s next game after they overcame a ten-point deficit at anytime during the game, not just halftime, and went on to win straight up. Whereas our halftime deficit of 10+ results in a 41.8% ATS rate in the following game, if the deficit occurred at anytime during the game there is a 48.0% ATS rate in the team’s next game. So a halftime margin is more important than a random one. Let’s add some qualifiers to our base trend, down by 10+ at half and winning the game. First, if our team is playing their next game without any rest, there was not much of an improvement betting against them but it did give us a totals situation worth considering with the Under happening in 56.2% of those games.

If our comeback team is favored in their next game they only cover the number at a 39.7% rate as compared to the dogs at 44.8%. Away favorites are 36.8% ATS and home favorites clock in at 40.8%. You don’t want to bet against home dogs, 51.4% winning ATS, but away dogs are only 42.1%. Another nice trend to note is the Under cashes tickets at a 65.8% clip for away favorites.

Would the competition in the next game make a difference in our results? Not in the case of whether the next opponent is a conference or non-conference foe as the ATS records are almost exactly the same in coverage rate. If the previous game where our team rallied to win was against a non-conference foe and now we are playing a divisional rival, the game goes Over the lined total 63.0% of the time. If the opponent in the previous game was a divisional one and this one is a non-conference game, playing against our team improves to a 65.2% mark. Beating a divisional rival after being down to them at halftime obviously carries more of a hangover for our team if they are playing a non-conference squad in their next contest.

I next looked at the location of the games. We did have an improvement of betting against our team from the base rate of 58.1% when no exact site was specified to 63.5% if both the previous game and the current game are on the road. The Under has a 58.8% success rate, also. An interesting twist on looking at the sites of the games is when both games are being played at home with the added condition of our team’s next game being on the road. When that happens, playing against our team in the second game is a 65.9% winner with now the Over being the total to bet on, a 56.8% occurrence.

We have talked about teams that rally from a halftime shortage of ten or more points to win a game. How about the team that blew that lead and lost, how do they do in their next game?

Since the start of the 2003 season, teams off of a blown lead and loss are covering the point spread in 54.7% of their next games. Teams that are playing on the road after their previous game was also on the road win 58.1% of those second games against the point spread. The best advantage came in betting the Under in these games, a 62.7% winning situation.

In this post-blown lead and loss circumstance, dogs and pick’ems were the side to bet on winning 57.0% of the time versus just 51.4% for favorites. In looking at conference and division combinations, there were a couple of situations that improved our base trend significantly. If the second game was against a divisional rival, our team covers the spread 61.5% of the time along with a 60% Under bias. If the previous game where our squad let the lead and game slip away was against a divisional foe and we are now an underdog in our next game, our ATS success rate improves to 64% and our Under bias raises to 72%. Our Under rate improves further to 77.3% if we are now playing a conference foe in the second game.

I increased the halftime deficit to 15 or more points for our team that rallied to win to see if there would be a betting advantage we could use. The only thing that really stuck out was the Over in our base trend occurred 56.9% compared to a 47.9% frequency when the deficit at half was only 10 points or more. Teams must be less focused and play with a little less intensity on the defensive side when they have even a bigger come from behind win.

I asked the question earlier in the article what was the biggest lead a team blew in a game that they lost straight up over the past five years. The answer is 29 points, which Minnesota blew on 12/30/08 on the road at Dallas. The Timberwolves were up by 22 at half and increased their lead to 70-41 early in the third before the Mavs reeled off a 22-2 run to get back in the match.
It’s time to start paying attention to halftime scores so you can take advantage of the profitable situations that happen when a team rallies to win in their previous game and also those games after a team blows their halftime lead and loses.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority penned this piece.