Big East Finals Betting Thoughts

I’m pretty much speechless again after Syracuse winning in overtime last night. What is easy to lose track of about the Orangemen is they have now won and covered seven in a row. You can’t give this team enough credit for how they are performing and they are now 22-8 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog.

They have an even greater task, trying to take down Louisville, the only team with a longer winning streak than they have in the Big East at nine games (7-2 ATS). By their style of play, the Cardinals present different problems than anyone they have played in the tournament. Teams shoot just 39.1 percent against Louisville and opposed to Connecticut who has the eraser at the rim, Rick Pitino’s club can do guard on the perimeter, along with having a few players who can swat away shots, which is why they are 17-6 ATS versus good shooting teams making 45 percent or more of their shots after 15 or more games over the last two seasons.

Bookmaker.com opened Louisville as 6.5-point favorites and the wagering public quickly bet them up to 7.5-point choice. Clearly the oddsmakers are looking at fourth game in four days, which is almost five games if you include the overtimes. The StatFox Power Line has the ‘Ville by two and my own personal figures have them by 3.5, thus it would appear there is value with Syracuse who is 22-9 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pick.

Be that as it may, I’m backing Pitino’s crew, as I believe they might be playing for national championship and their pressure will mentally wear out Syracuse for a ten-point triumph.

Not just another Betting Saturday

Officially a 1-1 day, though the system was correct, it was just below 80 percent and a non-qualifier. The Top Trend was a winner and the Auburn Tigers look to continue perfection against Tennessee this afternoon. No terrific college basketball systems, however did find a swell play in the NBA that 81.8 percent. The LCC has nine bettors backing Temple with no dissenters. Good Luck.

If you are looking for quality free picks sign up to the right and get my personal selections. I’m on 19-10 run in the college tournaments and 72-56, 56.2 percent in the NBA for the season.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Phoenix, in a game involving two poor defensive teams (45.5-47.5 percent), after three straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 47 percent or higher. This NBA system comes in at 30-7 ATS since 2004 and is 3-0 this year.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Auburn Tigers are 14-0 ATS after two consecutive conference games this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection consensus is on Temple as the best play today.

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The Friday March Madness continues

The madness continues and we were somewhat disappointed with 2-3 day, but this time of year anything can and does happen in college basketball. Going to cut Sal a little slack, as he was 1-1 at 3Daily Winners, but 7-2 overall and his best play is available now. The Top Trend is out of the WAC Conference and we have a 79.1 system in Pac-10 tilt. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON neutral court teams as an underdog like Arizona State, after two straight games making 50 percent of their shots or better, against opponent after a game where a team made 50 percent of their three-point shots or more. This system just misses qualifying for our standards, but is 34-9 ATS, including 4-1 against the spread since Championship week started.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Louisiana Tech is 14-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Sal’s best bet tonight is BYU.

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Big East Semi-Finals Wagering Matchups

Sometimes things happen as expected and other times they just happen. The historic UCLA and Houston game in 1969 lived up to its billing with future Hall of Famers Lew Alcinder (Later Kareem Abdul Jabber) and Elvin Hayes playing a classic 71-69 contest, with a young Dick Enberg doing the play by play. A number of memorable NCAA Final Four and championship games have been played and the Duke and Kentucky tournament tilt is widely thought to be the greatest college basketball game ever played.

Fans in the ACC still talk about the Maryland and North Carolina State; I believe it was 1973 or 1974, when the Wolfpack won in triple overtime 103-100, back when only one team out of conference went to the NCAA tournament, which raised the level of importance.

I’m not sure where the Connecticut and Syracuse six overtime game belongs in the annuals of greatest games, but it’s in the mix. I make notes on every game I watch, be it basketball, football and baseball. When the games went to the fourth overtime, I wrote “never to be forgotten” and just sat back and watched.

For anyone that stayed up and watched, there are no words that accurately describe what you saw. The number of descriptive adjectives one could use would wear out the pages of a Thesaurus.

Both coaches had interesting quotes after the game, each following true coaches thinking and lending insight to their beliefs. Jim Boeheim went this way. “I've got no words to even try to describe it," Boeheim said. "I've never been prouder of any team I've ever coached. You get involved after 30 some years and thousands of games, there are a lot of games in there that are pretty memorable, but I think it would be hard to top this game."

UConn coach Jim Calhoun did what coaches do, seek answers. "We lost this game because we had turned the ball over 27 times and couldn't make a foul shot," Calhoun said.

Before I started writing this, the word “epic” popped into my head for two reasons. The first in trying to come up with way to describe what I had watched and the other reason was for what kind of task coach Boeheim has in front of him against West Virginia tonight. Think about it, if the Mountaineers start the game with 8-0 or 12-2 run, what does Boeheim say, “Common guys, wake up, you have play with more passion or effort!” Can he really look at that them in the eyes and say that with conviction? Or do you just go with the old thinking of that was yesterday and today’s a new day, creating a new circumstances.

Bookmaker.com has West Virginia as 6.5-point favorites and you can bet your last dollar, Bob Huggins will tell his team to push the ball up the floor, every single time and to test and further fatigue Syracuse. The Mountaineers got there piece of revenge against Pittsburgh and is 6-0 ATS in road games after allowing 65 points or less two straight games this season.

Look for Boeheim to be like a hockey coach, using his players in two and three minute shifts and going deeper into the bench, after motivating those players about their importance tonight.

In the first Big East semi-final, Louisville and Villanova should be a superior matchup. Both teams controlled their quarterfinal opponents for long periods of time, with top-seeded Louisville showing why they earned top spot in putting away Providence and Villanova needing all 40 minutes to finally take down Marquette.

The Cardinals are on eight-game winning streak (6-2 ATS) and are starting to really look like a team that could be playing on Monday, April 6 for a national championship. The offensive execution is dramatically improved and the defense is tenacious with each of the nine or 10 players who see action. Louisville raised their record to 40-13-2 ATS against Big East competition and is 14-5 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games.

Coach Jay Wright of Villanova points to one point loss to Louisville as the squad’s more important contest of the year. “That was a really big point for us," Wright said. "The Louisville loss was a tough one. It was at home and we felt like we had a shot to win it.

The way that our guys responded to that game gave us hope that whatever we dealt with this season, we were going to be able to handle it."

The Wildcats responded by winning 12 of next 15 (10-5 ATS) and are 10-3 ATS against teams with winning records. Nova is a four-point underdog and has covered four of last five in that spot.

Had the hard luck loss with Villanova for .500 day, leaving me at 7-5 against the spread and I see Villanova hanging tough and getting the cover and can’t see how Syracuse can play for “only” forty minutes against West Virginia and cover.

Big 10(11) Fraught with Danger for Bettors

The Big Ten Tournament is often a lot like watching your clothes in the wash cycle, not to exciting and everything keeps bumping into each other. If you live in the Midwest or are from there, don’t get all defensive, it’s just the way basketball is played in that area of the country, it’s hard and mean, very similar to the weather most of the year.

However, if you were a fan of either of the George Bush’s as Presidents or Ronald Reagan for that matter, Big Ten basketball is everything that is right about the world (no pun intended), because it is about playing defense and protecting your territory.

The four quarterfinal matchups bring an element of fear to the sports bettor, because this conference is bunched very closely. Michigan State proved to be head and shoulders above everyone else, winning by four games over nearest competitors. The bottom feeders, Indiana and Iowa have been rightly dispatched and based on history, Northwestern being ousted is not going to be on the home page of TMZ.com.

This leaves us with eight teams and this is where the intrigue begins. Michigan State is lock for next week and is playing for higher seed. Illinois and Purdue are safe, yet both need to win or could fall into dreaded 7vs 10 or 8 vs 9 matchups, which are the proverbial roll of the dice. The rest, well they have work to do.

Most bracketologists have Wisconsin and Ohio State safe; however it can never hurt to have one more win. This matchup takes on relevance since the winner can have a better story to tell being on CBS Saturday afternoon and have a legit shot at playing in the tournament finals. Sportbook.com has Wisconsin as two-point favorite, having won seven of last nine.

Though the Badgers have thrived in this event, this is not the same caliber of team. Wisky’s defense isn’t nearly as stout, with opponents making 44 percent of shot attempts. The offense has become known for being consistently inconsistent. In their last seven games, Wisconsin has shot in the 40 to 49.9 percent range just once, finishing three times in the 30’s and three times in the 50+ percent area.

The Buckeyes have won three of four, yet are 2-4 ATS in last six. Put Ohio State down for 16-6 ATS in all tournament games recently.

Just before Wisky and the Buckeyes play Friday afternoon, top-seeded Michigan State and Minnesota meet. The Golden Gophers ended a five game drought away from the Land of 10,000 lakes in numbing Northwestern 66-53. Minnesota is catching seven-points and was beaten solidly by the Spartans by 29 and 12 points this year. Will this provide enough incentive for Michigan State to make the Gophers look less than golden or do the Spartans let Minny hang around and possibly get clipped like Kansas? Michigan State is only 1-7 against the number if opponent is seeded seventh or lower.

Illinois finished the year losing three of last five, including last two contests in Big Ten action. The Fighting Illini is 8-5 SU and ATS away from home and will tackle Michigan, whom they have not seen in a day short of two months. The Wolverines used the whipping stick on Iowa on Thursday and are 8-2 ATS since February, including having strung four in a row together. Like Minnesota, the team from Ann Arbor is on the fence and has to keep piling up wins and hope similar teams like Providence and Kansas State continue to fall. Michigan split with Illinois and are playing better than the Illini right now. The Wolverines are 2.5-point dogs.

Penn State is the last bubble-type out of the Big Ten who manhandled Indiana as expected. The Nittany Lions already have one win over third-seeded Purdue and has covered seven straight Big Ten tourney tilts. The Boilermakers were coming strong, however, lost three of last four, making them as big a mystery in this tournament as any remaining squad. Purdue is a seven-point favorite and if you believe in history, the No.3 seed has failed to cover the spread each time since 2004.

Six of the eight teams still left have .500 or better against the spread records, setting up real thought provoking picks for sports bettors.

Betting the Big East Quarterfinals

For many, the first two days of the Big East tournament were like finger food, not bad, some more tasty than others. Starting today, everybody can take a seat because the main courses are about to be served.

Top seeded Louisville makes its first appearance since being crowned regular season champions last Saturday night when they take on Providence. The Cardinals come into the tournament playing as well as any team in the country having won seven in a row and 17 of last 19 (13-6 ATS). Coach Rick Pitino would enjoy pulling double of winning both titles, but leaves a very telling quote to at least consider about his team.

We want to win, we want to win another championship,” he said. “But we just spent three months to win a championship. We’re not going to beat ourselves up over three days.” Read into it what you want. The Cardinals are mind-boggling 39-13-2 ATS in Big East action and 9-3 ATS after they’ve covered the spread.

Providence turned up the defense late in the game to pull away from DePaul 83-74, earning first Big East tournament win in six attempts. Though they held the Blue Demons without a field goal for almost eight minutes, Providence will need a much stronger overall performance to take down Louisville. The Friars are 3-8 ATS in last 11 contests and face Cardinals defense that allows just 38.9 percent shooting away from home. Providence opened as 8.5-point underdogs at Bookmaker.com and is 0-4 SU and ATS against the Cards the last dozen years.

The other afternoon matchup has Marquette facing fourth seeded Villanova. The Golden Eagles had lost four in a row before spanking St. John’s 74-45 yesterday. Marquette did exactly what they needed to; they jumped on inferior opponent, regained a measure of confidence and the starters didn’t have to go hard for 40 minutes to conserve some energy. The Golden Eagles realize if Dominic James doesn’t get hurt, they would have had the bye instead of Villanova and they are 8-2 ATS in neutral site conflicts.

Villanova has been in the shadows of larger Big East foes, yet arrive in New York having won 11 of last 13 (9-4 ATS). The Wildcats have two things going for them that should allow them to emerge victorious. Villanova’s bench averages 19.3 points per game, as coach Jay Wright has talked for six weeks about having seven starters. Conversely, Marquette having already played a game and get almost nothing from its bench players, placing more pressure on starters to have big games. Nova is 9-1 ATS against teams with 60 percent or higher win percentage and is a 1.5-point favorite. Villanova lit up Marquette for 102 points in 18-point victory on Feb.10 and the favorite is 5-0 and 4-1 ATS since 2006.

Round Three of the Backyard Brawl commences in the evening at MSG. West Virginia was extremely aggressive from the opening tap and buried Notre Dame with three point barrage. The Mountaineers made 11 of 20 treys, but overall were not especially effective in shooting just 35.9 percent from the field. West Virginia may be 8-1 ATS in road games after allowing 65 points or less three straight games, but they haven’t taken on the likes of Pittsburgh in next contest.

The Panthers have already beaten and covered their rival twice this season. If there was ever a beast in the Big East tournament it’s Pittsburgh, who has been to the finals seven of the last eight years. Pittsburgh has been accused in some circles of placing too much emphasis on winning this event, which has led to flameouts in the NCAA Tournament. Guard Jermaine Dixon has an answer for detractors.

“We want to win it,” guard Jermaine Dixon said. “People probably think it’s going to be easy for us if we lose, it would be easier for us going into the NCAA tournament. But we definitely want to win the Big East tournament.

“It’s March now. So it’s time to go undefeated. We’ve got to go undefeated now so we can win everything.”

Pittsburgh is 15-6 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season and are a four-point favorite over West Virginia.

To close out the quarterfinal action, a surging Syracuse club will do business with Connecticut. The Orangemen are putting the ball in the basket with great regularity, shooting 56.9 percent against Seton Hall in winning by 15 points. Syracuse has now shot 50 percent or higher in five consecutive games, all wins and covers.

The task becomes more challenging, just like it was Feb.11 when the Orangemen were shutdown completely, in shooting 31.7 percent against Connecticut and held to season low 49 points.

“We can’t let them dominate us,” Syracuse guard Jonny Flynn said. “(Thabeet) basically dominated the game … from a defensive standpoint. I think we just have to go in there stronger. … Really go at the mindset we’re not going to let this guy control the game from a defensive standpoint.”

Big East Co-Player of the Year Hasheem Thabeet blocked seven shots in that game and controlled the glass with 16 rebounds. Connecticut is off another loss to Pittsburgh, sending their record to 0-6 ATS the past few years. UConn opened as 3.5-point favorites and went to five, which is curious, seeing they are 5-16 ATS as neutral site favorites.

I was 3-1 yesterday, taking record to 5-3 ATS and like the chalk in the afternoon session with Louisville and Villanova. I’ll back Pittsburgh in a close game, but take the five with the Orange. Until tomorrow.

Seeking more Perfection with Plays

Officially a very nice 3-0 day and we’ll try to better that, having a basketball system this is 85.2 percent and giving us two plays to choose from. The Big 12 has perfect trend available for today. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON neutral court teams, revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points against opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more. This system is a super 23-4 ATS, 85.2 percent and yields two plays. Consider Ohio U and Tulane for today’s action.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Kansas Jayhawks are 12-0 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a game past the midpoint of the season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Sal’s has started 4-0 today with Michigan, Baylor, Virginia Tech and Minnesota and has two plays for tonight, UNLV and Boston College for us here at 3Daily Winners.

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Betting the ACC Tournament

The 56th annual Atlantic Coast Conference tournament is about ready to tip off, as it leaves the Carolina region for a trip to Atlanta, with Georgia Tech playing host. This has been the premier event in postseason college basketball for years and 2009 should be no different. North Carolina is the overwhelming favorite at -175 to cut down the nets Sunday afternoon; however a cloud of doubt has arisen as junior guard Ty Lawson is questionable for the opener and possibly for the whole tournament with a badly swollen right toe according to coach Roy Williams. Smart bettors know it is Lawson, not Tyler Hansbrough that makes the Tar Heels play most efficiently. Here is a game by game look at the opening round.

Miami vs Virginia Tech 12 Eastern

Miami (7-9, 7-8-1 ATS in ACC) starts the festivities with Virginia Tech in the tournament opener in a 8 vs 9 matchup and are favored by 3.5-points at Bookmaker.com, having won three of last four contests. The Hurricanes lean on two-time All-ACC selection Jack McClinton. The junior guard sets the table for Miami offense and leads the conference in three point accuracy at 46.4 percent. If the games are close, McClinton is a big reason why the Hurricanes are 7-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite or pick over the last two seasons as he converts 88.5 percent from the charity stripe.

Virginia Tech (7-9, 6-10 ATS) fell apart late in the season, losers of six of last seven, including three in a row. The Hokies have been burying backers as well, on 2-7 ATS skid, as they are not receiving enough contributions from leading scorers A.D. Vassallo and point guard Malcolm Delaney. If Virginia Tech is going to move to 17-6 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pick, their scoring tandem must come through.

The winner advances to same time slot Friday to face top seeded North Carolina.

Georgia Tech vs Clemson 2:20 Eastern

Georgia Tech was 2-14 (6-10 ATS) in ACC action and earned the last seed. The Yellow Jackets were a rambling wreck with too many young players in a ruthless league. Georgia Tech lost eight of last nine and is 5-12 ATS after one or more consecutive losses this season. The Jackets were beaten twice by Clemson and failed to cover the spread either time.

Clemson (9-7, 8-7-1 ATS) could well have had today off; unfortunately, they lost three of last four, which lowered them to fifth seed. The Tigers didn’t have any teeth at crunch time in those losses and their defensive weakness is guarding opponents once they break their press, surrendering far too many easy baskets once broken down. Clemson went to the title game last year and will seek that magic elixir that got them their in 2008. “We're going to go back to practice and hopefully try to catch fire and get back to the championship," said forward Trevor Booker.

Clemson is a 9.5-point favorite, however is just 10-25 ATS on the road after allowing 80 points or more. The winner moves on to take on Florida State.

N.C. State vs Maryland 7 Eastern

Both the Wolfpack and the Terrapins arrive at the Georgia Dome with seat belts attached and treys in upright position after a bumpy close to the season. N.C. State (6-10, 10-5-1 ATS) lost four of last six ACC affairs, including one to Maryland. The Wolfpack are the 10th seed and are hoping for some of the same magic they made two seasons ago. In 2007, they were a No.10 seed and caught fire, riding it all the way to ACC title tilt, before losing to North Carolina. The club from Raleigh is listed as 1.5-point underdogs and is 7-19 ATS after playing a game as an underdog over the last two campaigns.

Maryland (7-9, 8-8 ATS) was having a very average season until they caught everyone’s attention in upsetting North Carolina at home in overtime 88-85 on Feb. 21. Since the upset they are 1-3 SU and ATS. The Terps wouldn’t even be a seventh seed except for point guard Greivis Vasquez, having frequently been asked to carry the load for a team light on talent in a conference of this quality. The junior will on occasion come unglued and make bad choices, like in the last game loss at Virginia, with questionable judgments when the game was on the line. Maryland has won and covered last four games against N.C. State, however is mere 3-10 ATS on neutral courts.

Whoever survives has second seeded Wake Forest on tap.

Virginia vs Boston College 9:20 Eastern

In the first day finale, Boston College is 4.5-point choice to surpass 11th seeded Virginia. The Eagles look solid for making the field of 65 on Sunday, but one more win at least only gives a greater level of comfort. Boston College (9-7, 7-9 ATS) already has resume building wins over North Carolina and Duke. Tyrese Rice and Rakim Sanders give the Eagles exceptional backcourt play and B.C. is 25-10 ATS after a game where they made 20 percent of their three-point shots or worse.

It has been another dismal campaign for Virginia with just four wins (8-8 ATS) in the ACC. The Cavaliers are only 9-23 the last two seasons in conference play, their worst two year stretch in a decade. Virginia is only 1-9 away from home (6-4 ATS) and coach Dave Leitao is trying to keep positive attitude. “Obviously you're the one that drives the bus, and so a lot of times it kind of starts and ends with you. It's difficult, but at the same point in time, it doesn't shake both my confidence and my will of thought to know that we're doing the right thing and we're going in the right direction."

It’s rather easy to make a case, Virginia is the worst team in the ACC, finishing last in the in field-goal percentage (41.8) and field-goal percentage defense (43.8). To complete the inept trifecta, they were last in three point shooting at 31.1 percent. Based on how things have been playing out in Charlottesville, it doesn’t take a degree from Virginia to understand 17-30 spread record in March.

The victor draws Duke Friday night.

Wagering on Hockey’s Hotties

The NHL season is winding down to a few precious games and now is the time to ride the teams that are making the playoff push and playing their best hockey of the season. Don’t waste time trying to pick and choose situations, go with certain NHL teams that are already giving you what you want, victories.

The Vancouver Canucks for most of the season were constantly looking in the rearview mirror, trying to see who might be gaining on them. Since February, the Canucks have won 12 of 15 and have adjusted their sights on what is in front of them, not behind. Vancouver is fifth in the Western Conference and if they can keep up this torrid pace, they will have chance to catch Chicago, taking home ice advantage away from the Blackhawks for playoff matchup. The schedule is advantageous, only having to meet Chicago and Northwest Division leader Calgary once, while hoping to pound away on cellar dwelling Colorado four more times.

The Pittsburgh Penguins are the defending Eastern Conference champions and are finally playing back to that level with 9-1 record in last 10 games. Pittsburgh’s best players are playing like it, as Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal are all scoring and making solid contributions nightly. The Penguins have finally tightened up in their own end and goalie Marc-Andre Fleury has gained confidence, winning 10 of last 13 at home. Pittsburgh was believed to be a suspect playoff possibility, now they are trying to hunt down division rival Philadelphia for fourth seed.

One team Pittsburgh and everyone else better keep a sharp eye on is Carolina, who is 8-2 in last ten contests. The Hurricanes have been receiving production from their second and third lines, which they haven’t with any consistency all season. Coach Paul Maurice is a coach always on the lookout for a hot netminder and he believes he has one right now in Cam Ward. If Carolina can survive upcoming three game road trip, eight of final 11 contests are at RBC Center.

Like Aerosmith, Back in the Saddle Again

I apologize for missing yesterday. I was going to be gone in the afternoon, but had a few unforeseen things pop up before I could leave, which left me with no time to post.

On Monday, had a 1-2 day and seek to rebound quicker than Scott Stapp of Creed, starting with a perfect Trend in the Big East. Sal is scintillating at the moment and ventures into the A-10 for his second big play of the day. Today’s best System is on a NBA underdog and an 82.9 percent winner. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON underdogs of 10 or more points after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games. This rock solid system is 29-6 ATS, 82.9 percent and takes a gander at Oklahoma City this evening.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Syracuse is 11-0 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams, being outrebounded by opponents by four or more per game past the mid-point of the season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Sal had a couple of off days in college basketball last week, but has come back with a vengeance with 9-1 streak. He had DePaul +9.5 early and is riding DuQuesne tonight.

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Big East Tournament -Second Round

It won’t go down as a historic Big East Tournament game, however it was memorable that DePaul ended 18-game losing streak and came from behind to upset Cincinnati. The Blue Demons played like they cared for the first time in a long time, shooting 49.1 percent and got the 800-pound gorilla off their back.
Providence will be up next for DePaul and the Friars can play at fast pace averaging 79.1 points per game. It should be noted Providence scoring average drops to 73.8 PPG on the road and they come in on 3-7 ATS run. DePaul has renewed energy and suddenly with nobody paying attention, has covered five of six. Bokmaker.com the Friars as 8.5-point favorites with total of 144 and they are 4-11 ATS in neutral sites. Providence won the earlier matchup, however the Blue Demons are 5-0 ATS as underdogs of late.

Saw the St. John’s upset coming, being in the Big East tournament for the first time in five years. Georgetown players had already made their minds up about getting to the NCAA tournament and play with the same enthusiasm. Marquette would be best served to jump on St. John’s early and deflate them before they get into the game. The Redmen are 1-7 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60 to 80 percent) this season. Marquette has lost four in a row and but is 7-2 ATS at neutral sites and is a seven point pick to advance.

Notre Dame was the only Big East team with a remote chance to still make the NCAA tournament field that won yesterday, giving a workmanlike performance in covering over Rutgers. The Fighting Irish will be finished unless Luke Harangody doesn’t come out of shooting slump. The 6’8 junior made just 3 of 18 shots yesterday, continuing poor performances. Ryan Ayers continues to be a third scoring option for Notre Dame and Tory Jackson is penetrating again. West Virginia is 21-10 (13-15 ATS) and hasn’t had a terrible loss all season. Shooting the ball is the key for the Mountaineers. They are 2-7 and 1-8 ATS when they convert less than 38 percent of shot attempts. That shouldn’t be an issue against the Irish, who allow opponents to make 45.5 percent. West Virginia is five-point favorite and is 1-9 ATS when favored by 6.5 or less. The Under is on 8-0 run when these two meet.

In the round two nightcap, Seton Hall is a 6.5-point underdog after 21-9 second half spurt allowed the Pirates to overtake South Florida. Jeremy Hazell led the charge, scoring 12 of his 23 points during the period and he’ll need another big performance. Seton Hall is 9-3 ATS as an underdog and will have to dial up the intensity against Syracuse, who has caught fire, winning and covering five of six. Guard Jonny Flynn spearheads the Orangemen’s attack and they are 7-1 ATS as favorites.

Yesterday I was 2-2 ATS and will take DePaul, St. John’s, West Virginia and Syracuse today in wagering action.

College Conference Tournament Previews

ACC
March 12-15 –Atlanta

The last few Atlantic Coast Conference Tournaments have lacked the panache of previous events, but by every college basketball individual that follows the game, this year’s tournament should bring it back to the head of the class. While North Carolina is the chalk in the tourney, they are not a sure thing having only covered the spread twice in nine games since February. Led by Tyler Hansbrough and Ty Lawson, the Tar Heels have the offensive capabilities to take down any team, nevertheless have defensive shortcomings. If North Carolina should stumble, the list of quality choices is better than a Subway sub shop.

Duke can score and defend enough to win, but will its starters be able to go the distance. Wake Forest is as talented as any team in the field, yet their inexperience does show up, particularly if guard Jeff Teague is stifled. Clemson is again creeping to the close, with 5-5 record, though still dangerous with style of play. You can’t teach height and Florida State has the most, as long a Toney Douglas can carry the offense, the Seminoles have shot. Boston College, Maryland and Virginia Tech are all capable of making the semi-finals. As certain announcer loves to say, “This year’s tournament should be awesome baby.”

Fast Fact – ACC underdogs are 36-20-1 ATS run.

Prediction: Play on North Carolina and Wake Forest for finals.
Sleeper: Florida State

Atlantic -10
March 11-15 -Atlantic City

Chalk is normally something you write with, not used for anything else. For sports bettors who follow the Atlantic-10, chalk is not only a writing utensil, but something to be watched very carefully for the profits it yields. In the last six years, the favorite in the A-10 tournament has covered the spread 63 percent of the time. This year Xavier, Dayton and rambunctious Rhode Island have been the class of the league. The Musketeers are turning into a reload program under coach Sean Miller, instead of having to rebuild. The Flyers have not found life as easy without point guard Rob Lowery, gone due to season ending injury. Dayton is 7-6 and 6-7 ATS away from home. The Rams are 10-2 (6-5-1 ATS) since Jan. 24 and can play different styles to beat opponents.

Either Temple or St. Joseph’s usually manage to make at least the semi-finals, with the former having the better chance this season. One team to watch is St. Louis, who closed the regular season on 9-2 ATS push. Follow the betting favorites, just be selective.

Fast Fact – A-10 favorites are 41-24 ATS last six tournaments

Prediction: Play on Play on Temple and Rhode Island for finals.
Sleeper: Temple

Big East
March 10-14 – New York City

Without a doubt, the most anticipated tournament this year. The field has been expanded to include every one of the 16 teams, meaning single and double byes for the teams that have been in the Top 25 all season. The last several years a darkhorse has emerged, playing in the finals on fumes with four games in four days, winning the tournament as often as not. Pittsburgh was the club to do so last year in the Big Apple and they won’t have to worry about that this season with their positioning. Connecticut has the largest contingent of players to win in New York, but this has been the case previously, with the Huskies having not been in the finals since 2003.

Top-seeded Louisville is another squad that has enjoyed limited success in these type of tournaments and Marquette isn’t the same without guard Dominic James. Though their record is sensational at 25-6, Villanova receives little acclaim. This is one team very capable of winning it all, especially if Scottie Reynolds scores, since the Wildcats are 10-0 when Reynolds throws in 18 or more points a contest. West Virginia is the other team capable off making some noise.

Fast Fact – No. 5 seeds are 9-2 ATS as underdogs of three points or less

Prediction: Play on Pittsburgh and Villanova for finals
Sleeper: West Virginia (real stretch)

Big Ten
March 12-15 – Indianapolis

If you think Big Ten regular season champion Michigan State is a mortal lock to at least make the finals, slow down Spartan-boy breath. The last time coach Tom Izzo’s squad made a trip to the Big Ten finale, turn of the century fatalists were realizing they didn’t need to hoard products, because the world wasn’t going to end when the odometer turned to 2000. In truth, Michigan State should still have enough to make finals this year and the way the league played out, Indiana and Iowa are about the only teams they won’t face.

Because of the style of play most teams incorporate in this conference, these matchups tend to be very defensive and fairly dull. Wisconsin and Illinois typically have done well, having met twice in the last four years for the title. Best bets for this Midwestern competition would look to be to play on underdogs of more than four points, with how competitive the spots 2-9 are.

Fast Fact – First round underdogs are 14-4 ATS

Prediction: Play on Michigan State and Illinois for finals.
Sleeper: Wisconsin

Big 12
March 11-14 – Oklahoma City

The Big 12 has been about the big three all year, Kansas, Oklahoma and Missouri. The Sooners would seem to have a small edge, having a more bipartisan crowd in their favor, playing in their home state. Having soon to be player of the year Blake Griffin would also be in their favor. The Jayhawks have a more complete team suited to win three games in a row and can play a number of ways besides preferred uptempo. Missouri off their impressive win over the Sooners can not be ignored, with a bothersome defense, what they have to protect against is shooting meltdowns, since they are 1-4 and 0-5 ATS converting less than 40 percent from the field.

One team lurking as upset-maker is Oklahoma State. Oh sure, they are 0-4 against the Big 3, nonetheless, they finished the regular campaign on a 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS push and should have a great deal of confidence having similar crowd support to OU. You would like to believe Texas could be a factor, yet the Longhorns don’t play 40 minutes of quality basketball often enough.

Fast Fact – Big 12 favorites of six or more points are 6-29 ATS

Prediction: Play on Oklahoma and Kansas for finals
Sleeper: Oklahoma State

Conference -USA
March 11-14 – Memphis

If Memphis doesn’t win the Conference USA tournament again this year on there home court, you might want to start listening to those doomsayers about what is happening to the world. At least from conference perspective, the Tigers are as menacing as ever, making it a tussle for the right to play them. Tulsa and UAB are in the best positions to have the honor of being mauled by the Tigers, since they are the two and three seeds, meaning they can’t meet until the finals.

It is challenging to find a lower tier team to support. Marshall closed 6-3 (6-2 ATS), yet to embrace a club that is 2-13 and 5-9 ATS away from home is heart-stopping. Because the rest of the league is dismal, the best plays are to back underdogs in fairly even matched contests; at least you are receiving points.

C-USA championship game favorites are only 2-4 ATS in last six.

Fast Fact – C-USA underdogs are 37-26 ATS

Prediction: Play on Memphis and Tulsa for the finals
Sleeper: Houston

Mountain West
March 11-14 – Las Vegas

Its Vegas baby, unfortunately that doesn’t guaranteed the Runnin’ Rebels are a lock to be in the finals. UNLV finished fifth the Mountain West, suggesting they won’t have quite the fan support of prior years unless they make it to the title game. Lon Kruger’s club wasn’t bullet-proof at home either. The 15-2 record looks sharp, but the 6-8 ATS record is as vacant as all the hotel rooms.

The sad part is if UNLV is eliminated, they could take this tournament over The Orleans hotel gym and they might not fill up that much smaller seating facility either. That is too bad, as BYU, Utah and New Mexico are all teams worthy of NCAA consideration. The Cougars are the best of the trio, with 9-1 and 9-1 ATS record since Jan .30. BYU has several scoring options and can bang on defense. The Lobos only slipup since the calendar turned to February was at BYU and have shown they can play better on the road this year. The Utes fell to both of the close competitors on the road the last two weeks, yet still have wins over Gonzaga and LSU proving their pedigree.

Fast Fact – Quarterfinal round favorites are 8-16 ATS

Prediction: Play on BYU and Utah for the finals
Sleeper: UNLV

Pac-10
March 11-14 – Los Angeles

Of the tournaments from the BCS conferences, the Pac-10 annually is the least attended. This sort of makes sense, as it is a long trek for fans from the universities of Washington state and Oregon state, especially if it looks like a one and done trip into Los Angeles.

It has been a confusing year trying to figure this league with Washington being the regular season champions. The beauty of what the Huskies did once again proves what can happen with the various dynamics of a squad. Often, there is no way to tell how hard a player will work in the off-season to improve or how a team might come together. It will be intriguing to see how Washington handles the role of the hunted as top-seed.

The results of this tournament have seen the higher seeds cover a 57.4 percent of the time, however that doesn’t mean there hasn’t been plenty of upsets. Since 2002, seven different teams have made the title tilt and Arizona State will have a legitimate opportunity, realistically for the first time. Of course UCLA has to be strongly considered and California, if they can find a way to trick themselves into thinking they are at Berkeley could surprise.

Fast Fact – Top seeds are 6-2 ATS when favored by 10 points or more

Prediction: Play on UCLA and Washington for finals
Sleeper: California

SEC
March 12-15 – Tampa

The SEC has absorbed more shots than a college student on weekend bender. Most analysts agree LSU and Tennessee; the division winners are in the NCAA tournament, however beyond that, the SEC has more bubble teams than a bottle of champagne. South Carolina, Florida and Kentucky have all bludgeoned themselves and to surmise if these teams might do well in the SEC Tournament, this would be like guessing what stocks to buy, if you had any money.

In trying to find teams on the uptick in this conference, the two division winners certainly have to be considered, especially the Vols, who weren’t even in the conversation for the SEC East crown three weeks ago. Another very quiet team hanging around is Auburn. The Tigers have won eight of nine and are 9-0 ATS, suggesting they are treacherous foe and could fly under the radar.

Not sure what the venue change to Tampa is going to do except provide more empty seats televisions producers will try and hide. With the conference really down, LSU and Tennessee losing would be the only real upsets. Of course a fitting final would be last place teams Arkansas and Georgia, based on how the season gone.

Fast Fact – SEC favorites of 6.5 or more points are 20-7 ATS

Prediction: Play on Tennessee and Auburn for the finals.

Sleeper: The whole conference

WAC
March 10-14 – Reno

The Western Athletic Conference was looking a lot like Conference USA until Utah State started to stumble. The Aggies were coasting along at 24-1, nationally ranked and it was all good. The loss at Boise State was not unnerving, but subsequent defeats to St. Mary’s and Nevada have signaled everything is not right for Utah State. For a team to upset the Aggies in the WAC tourney, they must follow the same path others have taken. Defensive intensity to limit Utah State shooting, since when they convert less than 50 percent of attempts, they are far less effective. Additionally, take a page out of their book, take good shots.

Realistically, only Boise State and Nevada seem to have realistic shot to knock Utah State off, with the Wolfpack playing on home floor. Keep a watchful eye on Louisiana Tech since they were 11-5 ATS in league play and 12-6 against the spread as an underdog this season.

Fast Fact – Favorites with revenge are 2-6 ATS

Prediction: Play on Nevada and Utah State for the finals

Sleeper: Boise State

Big East Tourney Thoughts -First Round

It had to happen and it was the right thing to do, but the amount of people waiting for the start of the Big East Tournament that now includes all 16 teams for the first time, has all the excitement surrounding it as the MEAC Conference tournament, which also starts today. The first day is so lightly regarded, even the Big East Network isn’t going to telecast it, and instead it is available online at BigEast.tv, which would draw this response from Homer Simpson. “Woowhoo”.

At least St. John’s, South Florida, Rutgers and DePaul are not shunned to some sort of basketball purgatory for having terrible season and will have a chance to compete, should they choose to do so. Three teams actually have something to play for, though it’s a reach, as Georgetown, Cincinnati and Notre Dame have the slimmest of chances to still be invited to the Big Dance. To even be considered part of that conversation, that would require a visit to the semi-finals, at least.

Cincinnati will face DePaul at high noon Eastern and it is hard to believe the Blue Demons will put up much of a fight after going zero for the Big East this season in 18 tries (6-12 ATS). DePaul has played with the enthusiasm of person finding out they are being laid off, but have to work two more weeks in order to get a two month severance package. On the year, DePaul is 8-18 ATS and Bookmaker.com has them as a rock solid eight-point underdog. The Bearcats are not exactly smokin’ coming in, with three consecutive losses and in need of OnStar to find the basket, as they have not converted over 38 percent from the field in last trio of tilts and are 0-8 ATS after playing two consecutive games as favorite over the last two seasons.

Immediately following, the next contest would have greater appeal if they ran ESPN Classic between Georgetown and St. John’s. This is actually the hot matchup of the day, with the Hoyas 3-3 in last six and the Storm 3-2 to close the year and 5-2 ATS in final seven tries. As you probably know, the fortunes of St. John’s altered when they caved in to political correctness and changed the school’s nickname away from Redmen. As a semi-educated adult, I know that has nothing to do with it, but can’t St. John’s start attracting a few kids from the city to at least be .500 and not have a sorry 6-13 ATS record against teams with winning records. Georgetown lost their confidence early in the Big East campaign and never regained it, finishing 7-11 and never met Wall Street-type expectations either with 4-14 ATS record in conference. The Hoyas and DePaul totaled 88 points in last game and G-Town is 0-8 ATS after playing a game where both teams score 65 points or less this season. Georgetown favored by six, smells like an upset.

In the evening, Notre Dame will bring its defenseless team into Madison Square Garden to take on Rutgers, a team that has given them trouble, at least when giving points. The Irish had a season reminiscent of the football team, high expectations, few results. Notre Dame did mange to defeat the teams they were supposed late in the season, including routing St. John’s by 19 as 11.5-point favorites, but they are just 1-7 ATS after a game where they covered the spread. Rutgers won two Big East games, including their last one over South Florida in a defensive classic (?) 45-42. The Scarlet Knights have shone to be pesky for Notre Dame with three covers in three losses the last three years and are receiving 11-points.

Oh, excuse me, I just yawned thinking about South Florida and Seton Hall. The Pirates looked like they might have some life when they won five games in a row in Big East action, however those wins all came against teams playing today and they finished 2-5, with one of the wins coming against tonight’s opponent. If you want to trace South Florida problems, it’s easier than finding fake Cartier watches in New York City. The Bulls shoot 39.8 percent from the field, make 29.6 percent from beyond the arc and convert 60.2 percent from the charity stripe. It’s no wonder USF is 5-14 ATS off a road loss. Seton Hall is a 5.5-point favorite and is 10-2 ATS in road games after covering two of their last three against the spread.

Opening day plays- Cincy, St. John’s, Rutgers and Seton Hall. Back here tomorrow for second round from MSG.

Three Free Plays and Unibomber reference

We had three winners on Sunday (2-0 officially) and I’m equally happy to report I won my second overtime game of the season with Northern Iowa yesterday. Today we have three very official plays, with Eric going for another underdog winner in college basketball. The Top Trend takes a trip into the Sun Belt Conference and we have 86.2 percent System that rarely occurs in the NBA. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON road teams where the line is +3 to -3, who are a solid offensive team, averaging better than 102 points a game, against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after a blowout win by 20 points or more. This system is 25-4 ATS, 86.2 percent since the year the Ted Kaczynski, the suspected Unibomber, was indicted on 10 criminal accounts. (1996) The team to fit this profile is the L.A. Lakers.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Western Kentucky is 11-1 ATS in all neutral court lined games over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Eric of the Left Coast Connection has seven straight college hoops underdog winners and is playing St. Mary’s tonight to continue his streak.

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Betting info for St. Mary's and Gonzaga final

This is what St. Mary’s has pointed to since losing star guard Patrick Mills on Jan. 29 at Gonzaga, a chance to win the West Coast Conference post-season tournament. Mills suffered a broken hand in that game after playing sensationally. The Gaels went on to lose the contest 69-62 as 10-point underdogs and put up a game effort in falling 72-70 at home without Mills. Though Mills is not 100 percent ready to go, St. Mary’s has to be energized having their leader back and wants to earn some revenge.

Though the season didn’t go as planned for Gonzaga either, they have dominated the WCC with 15-0 (8-7 ATS) record, winning by an average of 20.7 points per game. Gonzaga (25-5, 14-14 ATS) has won eight of the last 10 WCC tournament titles and is making 12th straight finals appearance. The Bulldogs have won 17 of 18, with only loss to streaking Memphis and took care of business decidedly last evening. After a tough ball game at Santa Clara 11 days ago, winning by eight as 10.5-point favorites, the Zags had their offense in high gear and raced by the Broncos 94-59. Austin Daye led the assault with career high 28 points.

It’s hard to stop us when we have our break going and we’re having fun,” said senior guard Jeremy Pargo, who had 16 points. Nevertheless, Gonzaga has had their troubles with defensive-minded teams like St. Mary’s and is 9-20 ATS versus teams allowing 64 or less points a game over the last two seasons.

St. Mary’s (25-5, 16-10 ATS) has two intentions tonight, the first is win first WCC title in 12 years or make an awfully strong impression to those that matter who will be watching this game that will pick the at-large teams. The Gaels were a virtual certainty to make the NCAA field before Mills was injured and scheduled one more game this week (they were one game below the maximum number of games played) to hopefully improve record and give Mills more playing time along with enhancing reputation.

The Gaels haven’t been in the WCC finals since 2005 and Mills believes he’s close to ready.
“It took longer than I hoped to warm up, but that’s OK, because it was a good warmup for (Monday),” said Mills, who is averaging 20.3 points in his career against the Bulldogs. “There were times when I tried to baby it a bit, but once I got in the flow, it was all right. It was stiff to start out, but it felt good to be out there, especially with the boys again.” St. Mary’s is 6-0 ATS versus teams outscoring opponents by eight or more points a game this season.

Gonzaga has won 26 of the previous 30 (17-13 ATS) matchups with St. Mary’s and Bookmaker.com have them as seven-point favorites, with a total of 137.5. The Bulldogs are just 3-9 ATS against teams with winning records, while the Gaels are 13-3 ATS revenging a close loss vs opponent of three points or less.

ESPN will have the coverage of this anticipated contest at 9 Eastern, with St. Mary’s 0-8 as neutral site underdogs.

Note - For information on tonight's other three conference title games click here.

Salvation at last, 3Daily Winners Record Update

I finally got it done. For those that have been dying a little each day not knowing the records of 3Daily Winners systems, trends and free picks, you can get off the oxygen now, your moment has come. All along, the attitude here has been to provide free information that hopefully does well so it helps you win, but more importantly, the articles are designed to provide useful information both to improve your skill and hopefully entertain a little.

Of course the goal is to have as many winners as possible and we talk it up a bit when things are going well and when the losses come too frequently, we acknowledge the fact they have and seek improvement. Thus, with all the fanfare of the upcoming Southland Conference Tournament, here are the up to this second records.

The first batch is completed plays based on the sports; the second group are those sports still action.

MLB System Plays -76-39, 66 percent
MLB Trends – 62-58, 51.6 percent
MLB Free Picks – 68-61, 52.7 percent

CFB System Plays -24-15-1, 61.5 percent
CFB Trends – 17-9-1, 65.3 percent
CFB Free Plays – 22-12-1, 64.7 percent

NFL System Plays – 21-13, 61.7 percent
NFL Trends – 12-12 (you know that percentage, I hope)
NFL Free Plays 14-12, 53.8 percent

CBB Systems -26-23, 53 percent
CBB Trends- 37-18-1, 67.2 percent
CBB Free Plays – 22-33, 40 percent

NBA Systems – 27-16, 60.4 percent
NBA Trends – 19-19-1 ATS (that earlier number again)
NBA Free Picks – 15-16, 48.3 percent

NHL Systems – 4-3, 57.1 percent
NHL Trends -9-3, 75 percent
NHL Free Plays – 3-0 (trickier, but I know you got this one)

Obviously, I was not very smart, since these records are even better than I thought and I could have made some serious cash if I marketed this site like Harrywins.com.

Instead, I’ll wake up tomorrow and try to find you three more winners.

Three Sunday Plays and another tale of woe

Had a tough loss on Marquette, losing in overtime to fall to 1-2 yesterday. If this wasn’t so sad it would hilarious. Some of you who receive my personal plays (you can do so by signing up) have heard my previous disgust on this subject. Yesterday, I personally was 5-5 betting college basketball with two overtime losses (Marquette and Austin Peay). This brings my season to date betting record in college hoops overtime games to 1-14-1 ATS!!! I went back and looked up how many games did I deserve to lose and I had two favorites that were -8 or higher, thus were lost causes. But in every other case, I was giving no more than four points or on the receiving end of points. At this point I’m no longer angry, just amazed at my bad luck.

The Top Trend was our lone winner and today the MAC has an intriguing possibility. Eric of the Left Coast Connection is on nice streak picking underdogs and has one as Free play. No systems at 80 percent or better today, however found a pretty good one in college hoops on a higher seeded live dog. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON neutral court teams as an underdog like Northern Iowa, after two straight games making 50 percent of their shots or better, against opponent after a game where a team made 50 percent of their 3-point shots or more. This non-qualify system is 32.9, 78 percent, dating back to 1997.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Ohio U. is 2-13 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Eric of the LCC has hit his last six underdog plays in college basketball with three outright winners and is playing Duke today.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

Saturday Betting Info and free advice

An improvement for Friday with 2-1 day and Willie gave a free winner. Today he flips over to the NBA trying to build that bankroll further. The Kansas Jayhawks can win the Big 12 outright with a win; does the Top Trend give us a hint on how they might perform? Also in college basketball, have an 81.2 percent system in the Big East and no UConn and Pittsburgh are not involved. Good Luck.

I understand not everybody is whack job like me, but I would recommend watching about 30 minutes or more of these smaller school conference championships. It really can provide insight for the first round of the NCAA Tournament, if a team is worth taking with the points or could be blown out.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Syracuse off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival, against opponent after a road game where both teams scored 75 points or more. With this 26-6 ATS system going on Senior Day in Milwaukee, no way they don’t send Dominic James out a winner at Marquette.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Kansas Jayhawks are 12-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Willie of the Left Coast Connection was 4-1 in all sports last night, raising his record to 14-5 on current run and is taking the Detroit Pistons to keep winning.

College Hoops Bettor’s Saturday Outlook

The number one team in the country has had a hard time wearing that crown all season and top-ranked Connecticut will have as stiff a challenge as anyone, going to Pittsburgh, who has yet to lose at home and has tagged the Huskies already this season. The outcome matters to Louisville, who could be playing for top seed in the Big East tournament, should UConn fail to win. The Washington Huskies can win first basketball title since the league was called the Pacific Coast Conference and Kansas is positioned to be the surprise winner of the Big 12 regular season. Kentucky and Florida are playing just to be taken seriously, with poisonous finishes to the year. Check Bookmaker.com for the latest numbers on these contests.

Connecticut at Pittsburgh 12:00ET, CBS

Coach Jim Calhoun has been thru a lot lately. He lost a terrific starter in Jerome Dyson, got baited into an embarrassing public discussion about his income and notched his 800th coaching victory. Now he will try and lead his team to no worse than a tie for a Big East regular season title and extract a little revenge against Pittsburgh. Calhoun is still fretting as neither Craig Austrie nor Kemba Walker has set the world on fire trying to replace Dyson. The frontcourt players like Stanley Robinson and Jeff Adrein have shown a desire to perform better. The Huskies (27-2, 13-12 ATS) are 13-0 and 9-4 ATS away from Storrs.

Pittsburgh (27-3, 16-8 ATS) has not handled the No.1 hot potato well dropping games the week after being listed at the top of the charts. This is an influential week for the Panthers, after defeating Marquette and having UConn at home. The upset loss at Providence jeopardized their No. 1 seed possibility and they must knock down a pair of wins to restore luster and still have outside chance to force three-way tie for first place, should Louisville falter at West Virginia. The Pitt guards have to do a better job with the ball and DeJuan Blair will likely have to make a few adjustments after ruling Hasheem Thabeet in last encounter.

Something will have to give with the Panthers 18-0 (8-4 ATS) at the Petersen Events Center and Connecticut 9-0 (6-3 ATS) in true road games. Pittsburgh is 10-2 ATS versus teams outscoring opponents by eight or points and has split last six meetings with UConn at home.

Kentucky at Florida 2:00 ET, CBS

These are two struggling teams trying to fake they are among the best 65 teams in the country. Are Florida (21-9, 9-14 ATS) and Kentucky (19-11, 12-12-1 ATS) really deserving of NCAA bids, possibly, based on the history of the conference, but both have more flaws than what Republicans in the House and Senate think of the new President’s budget plans. The Wildcats have two star players in Jodie Meeks and Patrick Patterson and three warm bodies on the court. No regular contributions have been forthcoming from others, unless you count missed shots and turnovers as part of the total package. This is why Kentucky has three wins in last 10 games (2-8 ATS). Essentially, Meeks and Patterson are like an archipelago and the rest are just drowning in futility. Kentucky is only 2-6 ATS with two days rest this campaign.

Florida is 16-1 (5-6 ATS) at the indoor Swamp (O'Connell Center) and backers have come to understand the Gators. Besides Nick Calathes, on any given night, some different player or players may be a factor on the floor or they may not. Coach Billy Donovan has developed a sore neck, shaking his head back and forth, trying to find any sort of consistency from game to game.

Beating Kentucky in hoops is always a big deal to Florida and they are 7-4 and 6-5 ATS at home. The loser of the SEC showdown might well be headed to the NIT unless they win the conference tournament.

Texas at Kansas 4:00 ET, CBS

I have not always been a big fan of Bill Self as coach, dating back to his days at Tulsa. Always thought he was one of the top recruiters in the country, but his teams always left you wanting more until they won it all last season. If Kansas would have 17-12 record coming into this week, nobody would have raised an eyebrow with the personnel losses the Jayhawks suffered. Yet here we are, Kansas (24-6, 17-7-1 ATS) can win the Big 12 crown and this bunch of youngsters, who have listened to their coach, are one of the few Top 25 teams in the country that is better today than they were a month ago. With lesser expectations, bettors have profited handsomely, with the Jayhawks 13-5-1 ATS as favorites.

While coach Self deserves accolades, it has been a curious campaign for Texas (20-9, 11-15 ATS). A.J. Abrams has been more up and down then expected, the Connor Atchley of the previous two seasons has disappeared and the defensive intensity coach Rick Barnes teams are noted for, has been blown away like wind witches out on the Texas prairie. At least they seem to have found a point guard in Dogus Balbay, who has added a rhythm to the offense and placed players back in normal positions. Texas is only 3-12 ATS against defensive clubs like Kansas in the latter part of the season.

Kansas is 16-5-1 ATS in last 22 Big 12 contests, however the underdog is 4-1 against the number in this Big 12 skirmish.

Washington State at Washington 5:30ET, FSN

Based on how the universities football programs performed, the two schools from the Apple State as thrilled to be included in national conversations concerning basketball. The Huskies (23-7, 16-10-1 ATS) are attempting to hunt down a Pac-10 title, their first in 24 years, while still trying to win the whole thing for first time since 1953. For seniors Jon Brockman and Justin Dentmon, this season has been especially gratifying, after being picked to finish in the middle of the Pac-10 pack. Washington has been far from dogs at the home with 17-1 and 9-6 ATS record, preparing to face in-state rival Washington State, whom they walloped 68-48 on Jan.3.

This hasn’t been the kind of season the Cougars (16-13, 11-16 ATS) had hoped for, never really meshing as a team until late, having won last three league contests. Too little scoring and not enough execution at critical times, has turned too many potential wins into losses. Besides the upset wins of UCLA and Arizona State recently, preventing rival Washington from being outright conference champs would be a tremendous way to close the regular season. Washington State is just 3-8 ATS after allowing 50 or fewer points.

Wazzou has covered seven of last 11 in Seattle.

Louisville at West Virginia 9:00 ET, ESPN

By the time Louisville’s Big East battle commences, the Cardinals (24-5, 17-12 ATS) will know what they are playing for, the outright conference crown or a portion of it. Since being knocked silly at Notre Dame, Louisville has played better defense and taken better shots, improving shooting percentage significantly, in winning six straight (4-2 ATS). Finally, after much harping, the Cardinal players look to have bought into coach Rick Pitino’s wisdom and are playing with the passion and smarts he has been seeking. They will be traveling to a really challenging environment in Morgantown; however they are 7-1 SU and ATS in true road outings.

West Virginia (21-9, 13-14 ATS) has again exceeded preseason presumptions and could cap a super close to the season with an upset of Louisville. The Mountaineers had early season backcourt injuries, which forced coach Bob Huggins to play freshmen Devin Ebanks, Kevin Jones and point guard Truck Bryant. Playing in this Big East laboratory was a test this year and all three have come thru with passing grades. The three ooze confidence and have helped the ‘Teers forge 23-13 ATS record in home games.

It is really difficult to bet against Louisville, with its 38-13-1 ATS mark in the Big East.

Learning From the First Quarter in the NBA

I was participating in a panel discussion with some other handicappers last week on a local radio show here in Las Vegas. Having a couple of beers before the show, (just like in trying to meet women, I always thought having a few drinks beforehand always makes you sound much better) the discussion came around to what happens in the first quarter of an NBA game makes no difference at all. I said it might not in that game, but it definitely can in a team’s next game.

We found some good trends last week where a team in their previous game came back after being down at halftime to outright win the game. There was a definite effect on how the team performed in their next game. Let’s see if we can dig something up when a team is down at the end of the first quarter but comes back to win. The sample is games starting with the 2005 season.

Using the premise that our team was down only by one to four points at the end of the first quarter but ended up winning the game straight up, we looked at how they performed in their next game. To get any results of significance, our comeback team in the first game had to have been an underdog. In their next game, they only cover the spread 43.5% of the time, 123-160. The Under happens in 54.7% of these games. These are nice results for such a basic situation.

We are not specifying locations for either the previous or the next game. If we do add locations to the equation, we get a nice improvement on our Under to 66.7% if the come-from-behind game was on the road and we are now playing at home. But, if both the former game and the next one are both at home, our ATS rate drops to 28.6%. Our team must get a little too relaxed staying at home after their comeback win.

Let’s see how altering a couple of qualifiers can dramatically change the results of a trend. First, we are going to change the deficit at the end of the first quarter from being behind one to four points to five to nine points. Next, instead of the team that rallied and won being an underdog, we change them to have been the favorite. Comparing our previous situation where the first game was on the road and now playing at home and the Under happened at a 66.7% rate, just by changing from a dog to a favorite in the previous game and increasing the deficit, the next game now has completely opposite results with a 62.0% play on the Over!

If the team that rallied and won did it in an underdog role, it is probable to assume they are more focused in their next game and play better defense. However, if the team was a favorite and thus expected to win that game, even being down by a larger margin than the underdog had been after the first stanza, the favorite apparently doesn’t play with the same intensity in their next game. Perhaps an added emphasis is put on the offensive side after having to rally to win, but I do believe that it is easier to improve your defensive efficiency as compared to that on offense.

Now let’s increase the opponent’s lead at the end of Q1 to 10 to 15 points. We’ll keep the sites the same, previously away and now home. With the bigger margin to overcome for the win, the Over occurs 68.6% of the time in our next game. Interestingly enough, with the increase in the Q1 deficit to 10 to 15, there is very little difference between whether our team was a dog or a favorite in the first game. That significant enough of a comeback apparently affects all teams in a similar manner allowing the high Over rate in the next contest.

Since we looked at how teams do coming back to win a game after being down after only the first 12 minutes have been played, we need to turn the tables and discover if there are any trends for teams that blow a first quarter lead.

Our first situation will be a team that is ahead by one to four points after Q1 and ends up losing outright. There was nothing worth noting without adding some qualifiers. Let’s use the same sites that we did before: the first game on the road and the next at home. Let’s make our team favored in the first game.

Apparently in their next game, they want to make up for blowing the early lead as they play good defense staying Under the lined total 66.7% of the time. Just out of curiosity, I wanted to see what affect there might be in their next game to a team that loses a first quarter lead quickly on the way to a loss.

I took a team with a 5 to 9 point advantage at the end of Q1. That good feeling of having a lead quickly vanished as I made them behind in the score at halftime before going on to lose the game. There is a hangover effect with our team going just 65-99 ATS, 39.6%, in their very next game without any additional qualifiers. The ATS rate is lowered to 33.0% if the second game’s type of location is not the same as the first. One is a road game, the other is a home game, in either order.

In this scenario, we get a big wagering improvement when the team that blew the Q1 lead in Q2 are playing their next game without any rest. A pitiful 28.0% spread coverage rate, 11-27, occurs without having any consideration for locations. The Over comes through at 76.3%, 29-9. The record of this trend this season is 6-1 ATS and OU. However, the real icing on the cake is if our team’s opponent is playing the game with at least a day off as then the Over improves to a fantastic 25-3, 89.3%.

Here is another reason to look for who led after every quarter. If a team goes wire to wire leading after the first quarter, halftime, and the third quarter on their way to a win, there is a very good trend on the Over in their next game, if it’s at home. The one other qualifier is the team had to have been an underdog in the first game.

An underdog getting a win where they never were behind at the end of a quarter creates a relaxed feeling about playing defense the next time on the hardwood. The Over is 162-110 since the tip-off of the 2005 campaign, a 59.6% success ratio. If you want to drill down just a little bit more to improve that Over rate, we hit 68.7% if their next game is a non-conference one. Most of the time there is not the same amount of focus when going against a non-conference foe. Our super sweet spot is if the previous game was also played at home, the Over skyrockets to an 86.7% mark, 26-4!

The extra factor of no travel plus the comforts of playing in your arena, and perhaps the chance to go out and celebrate an easy win, can have tremendous influence on a team’s next total. Again, let’s look at the opposite: a team that was behind after each of the first three quarters but ended up winning the game covers the point spread in their next game only 36.7% of the time if that game and the previous game were played at home. Sometimes it pays to go out on the road!

How about when a team starts out really clicking on offense and puts up over 30 points in the opening period. Their offense then goes cold in Q2 and they only tally 20 points or less and go on to lose the game. Apparently, our team loses some confidence if they are now playing their next game as an underdog because they only cover the linesmaker’s number 32.8% of the time. That poor line-covering rate falls to 22.2% if our team was favored in their previous game where they went cold in Q2 after a hot start.

Paying attention to what happens in the first quarter of a game can make you some cash in the following game. You just have to know what to look for.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority did all this work, probably without beers.