It's going to be Sensational Saturday

We were 2-0 when this was last posted and we have a terrific Top Trend in the SEC that has never lost. The Best System is awesome at 88.5 percent. Gary has hit two Free Plays and has a gutsy call on an underdog today. Good Luck

What I learned yesterday – Coming

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Free Football System-1) PLAY ON home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Boston College after two consecutive games where they forced three or more turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. This system is a sweet 23-3 ATS, 88.5 percent.

Free Football Trend -2) The LSU Tigers are is 0-9 ATS after three or more consecutive straight up wins over the last three seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Gary takes time from his tremendous baseball streak to play the Cal Bears and has played them with the points and on the money line.

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Five Prime Choice College Football Games

The calendar has flipped over to October, which means an emphasis on conference play takes over. Even though the season is roughly just a third of the way over, this week has survival mode written all over it already. In mid-September, USC and Cal has national title implication, now the loser could be through in the Pac-10 race. Michigan State believed they were contender for Big Ten hunt; instead they are searching just for a win. Despite perfect record, LSU has not impressed and likely can’t absorb a loss with Alabama, Ole Miss and Florida still to play. Lane Kiffen’s Tennessee squad is looking for bowl bid and doesn’t want to slip below .500 again. Oklahoma and Miami really don’t want to take on another L, if they want to remain relevant. Odds courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

Michigan (+3.5, 54.5) at Michigan State BTN 12:00E

The Wolverines (3-1 ATS) leave Ann Arbor for the first time, but at least they are still playing in the state of Michigan. You would have to think Rich Rodriquez team being 4-0 is a minor surprise nationally, though they were favorites in three of them. Kudos to RichRod for adding more speed on both sides of the ball and believing in frosh QB Tate Forcier to run the offense. One overlooked aspect that is less visible is how much better the offensive line plays. All the fancy formations and trickeration is terrific, but unless the big boys up front create running lanes, none of this happens. Meechigan is 3-8 and frightening 1-10 ATS in road opener.

Michigan State (1-2 ATS) fully expected to be no worse than 3-1 coming to this contest, but after Wisconsin loss, they sit at 1-3. The Spartans pass defense has left much to desire and coach Mark Dantonio summed it up best - “We’ve left plays on the field”. With the defense befuddled at present, the offense has to carry the burden. Kirk Cousins has won the quarterback job and the sophomore has been poised much of the time and shown ability to deliver the pigskin on target to Spartan receivers. Michigan State is 0-6-2 ATS in last eight home sandwich encounters.

In this Wolverine State battle, it’s always meant more to the Spartans, being the second-class citizen, especially in football. Last year they broke their six-game losing streak to Michigan and won at the Big House for the first time since 1990. The visitor is 4-1-1 ATS in last six matchups and the SU winner is 13-3 ATS. The Wolverines opened as favorites and have been shifted to underdogs, which makes the dog play all that more interesting, since the hound is 8-2-1 ATS in East Lansing.

3DWLine – Michigan State by 1.5


LSU (-3.5, 50.5) at Georgia CBS 3:30E

Georgia is 2-0 in the SEC and could be a surprise team of sorts with a win over unbeaten LSU. The Bulldogs (3-1, 1-3 ATS) offense has clicked in averaging 37.6 points per game in last three contests, as senior signal caller Joe Cox has settled into comfortable rhythm. Coach Mark Richt believes even better days are ahead. “We’ve been finding a way to keep it exciting,” Richt said. “I’m very thankful for the victory, excited to be 2-0 in the SEC. I don’t think we’ve come close to playing as well as we can.” Defensively, these Bulldogs have no bite, ranked 67th in total defense and even worse 91st against the pass. There soft zone isn’t exactly the Da Vinci code and a lack of pass rush makes it easier to understand than a Ron White joke. Georgia is 10-15-1 ATS in SEC action the last four seasons.

How good is LSU? Were about to find out with three strenuous conference conflicts starting in Athens. The best description of the Tigers (4-0, 1-2-1 ATS) to this point is “workmanlike” and their victory over Washington to start the year was proof. Last week, in spite a 4-0 turnover advantage, LSU needed a goal line stand at Mississippi State to hold off those Bulldogs. LSU’s offense is ranked last in the SEC at 310 yards per game. QB Jordan Jefferson has his moments as passer and LSU does have talent on the perimeter with Terrance Tolliver and Brandon LaFell. The running game has been inconsistent and can’t afford another pathetic performance like last week when they finished with 30 yards. There is no shortage of athletes on defense, however against the two best offenses they’ve faced; LSU has conceded almost 25 points per game. The Tigers are 20-14-1 ATS on the SEC road the last nine years, but 1-8 ATS after a game where they forced three or more turnovers.

Under coach Miles, the Tigers are 9-24-3 ATS in league play and are 0-3 SU and ATS versus Georgia. Last year’s 14-point win was the largest over LSU in five decades. The Bulldogs have struggled with teams sporting 75 percent or higher win percentage, with 3-14 ATS mark. LSU does have history on their side after running the ball so poorly, being 14-3 ATS in road games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game.

3DWLine –Georgia by 4

Auburn (+2.5, 52) at Tennessee ESPN 7:45E

Don’t look for another boring 14-12 game like last season when these teams met. Last year, over two-thirds of the drives (29 total) between Auburn and Tennessee were four plays or fewer, making viewers yawn incessantly. The Tigers (4-0, 3-1 ATS) high-powered offense is averaging 45.2 points per game, with over 526 total yards. It’s a great story of character, as QB Chris Todd has overcome last year’s problems and thrived in offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn’s new offense. In the only above average offense the Auburn defense faced, they struggled (30 points allowed). Tennessee doesn’t necessarily present the same issues that West Virginia exposed. However, if Jonathan Crompton tosses more errant passes, the Tigers have real ball-hawks that will pick them off. This is Auburn’s initial road contest and they are 10-3 ATS in this spot.

Tennessee (2-2 ATS) is back to .500 after outlasting Ohio U 34-23. Coach Lane Kiffin would kill to have a better option than Crompton under center, but he doesn’t. Crompton makes terrible decisions and often worse throws that lead to interceptions. Kiffin has placed the offense in the hands of the offensive line and running backs, trying to give his club the best chance to win. No such issues on the defensive side where safety Eric Berry leads a scrappy contingent that gives its all. Defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin wants his guys to be more disciplined in third down situations, as the two BCS teams the Vols have played are converting almost 50 percent. Tennessee is 6-13-1 ATS hosting SEC opponents.

Being in opposite SEC divisions, these teams don’t play one another frequently. Auburn has won last four meetings (2-2 ATS), with previous loss to Tennessee coming in 1999. The underdog has covered the spread the last three, with the Volunteers 5-1 ATS in orange uniforms. Timing is everything and the Volunteers are 10-22 ATS in home games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

3DW Line – Tennessee by 1.5

Oklahoma (-7.5, 49.5) at Miami ABC-GP 8:00 ABC

Coach Randy Shannon has taken what appeared to be impossible situation and turned into a positive. Miami’s (2-1 SU&ATS) first four games were the most challenging in college football. If they can upset Oklahoma this week, this would mark the return of the importance of the “U” in college football. Jacory Harris has blossomed as sophomore in offensive scheme that suits his abilities. What’s most impressive about Harris’ growth is his football IQ, completing passes to everyone but the ball boy, with a dozen different receivers catching his tosses. Running back Kraig Cooper continues to be a versatile performer, sparking the offense where needed. The defensive line is tougher than the bouncers at The Mansion at Miami Beach. The Hurricanes however are 7-11 ATS at home against Top 25 clubs.

Oklahoma (2-1 SU&ATS) wanted to make sure it was prepared and had a bye week, which was to supposed to benefit Heisman winner Sam Bradford, but coach Bob Stoops is saying that Landry Jones will be his starting quarterback. After the BYU loss, the offense has gotten back in gear and the defense has played at the level most expected before the season began, hanging a couple of zeros on the scoreboard against Idaho State and Tulsa. Coach Stoops has praised the offensive line for opening bigger holes for runners Chris Brown and DeMarco Murray. The Sooners are 9-0 ATS off a win and playing non-conference foe.

If Miami (2-1 SU&ATS) thought they saw a lot of pressure in being overwhelmed by Virginia Tech defense, wait till they see the Sooners’ defenders. Oklahoma laid it on Miami 51-13 two years ago in Norman as 11-point favorites and is 28-5 (7-8 ATS) against all current ACC squads. Boomer Sooner is 10-2 ATS after gaining 475 or more total yards (45-0 over Tulsa) and 8-1 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game.

Miami returns to Landshark Stadium 2-10 ATS in home games off an upset loss as a favorite. The Hurricanes only loss to present Big 12 teams was to the Sooners; otherwise they are 8-0 SU and ATS. The last time Oklahoma faced the Canes in Miami was the 1988 Orange Bowl when they lost 20-14, ending a perfect season.

3DWLine – Oklahoma by 9.5

USC (-4.5, 46.5) at California ABC-GP 8:00E

This isn’t the kind of game USC (3-1, 1-3 ATS) has a problem getting up for and playing their best, however a deeper question exists beyond all the quarterback chatter. What’s the deal with the rest of the Trojans? The offensive line is supposed to be great, thus far that’s very debatable except in spurts. The defense has a ton of talent, but needs the vocal leadership of Taylor Mays as a rallying point, especially in times of adversity. Could the quarterback play be better, of course it, yet the fact remains these are 18 and 19 year olds and no matter what kind of uniform they where, they are going to have rough spots and it’s up to their teammates to step it up and help whoever is under center. The Trojans are 8-1 ATS as 3.5-10-point road favorites.

Off the blowout loss to Oregon, this is the defining game that will tell the story of the Cal Bears (3-1, SU&ATS) in 2009. Forget USC’s Washington State triumph, the Trojans haven’t looked this vulnerable early in the season since Pete Carroll’s first year in 2001. Coach Jeff Tedford knows he has the better quarterback in Kevin Riley and the best running back in Jahvid Best coming into this matchup. The Trojans might have better overall personnel on defense, but with players like defensive end Tyson Alualu and cornerback Syd’Quan Thompson, Cal can certainly compete, especially if they can control the USC running game. The Bears are 9-4 ATS at Berkeley against ranked opponents.

This Strawberry Canyon collision takes on completely different significance with each team having a Pac-10 loss. The loser at best is looking at Holiday Bowl as most reachable goal from this juncture, not exactly soul-stirring when dreaming of national title chase. Confidence will be extremely important, since both will take shots and how they react will figure into the outcome.

California is 8-0 ATS at home the last two years, but the visitor is 10-3 against the spread in this anticipated Pac-10 tilt. With California 1-7 and 3-5 ATS in last eight meetings and the Trojans 5-16 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games, survivor gear required.

3DW Line – Cal by 4.5

Big East play starts for Pittsburgh and Louisville

It’s a short week for both teams as they open the Big East campaign for 2009. The strain is a little greater for Pittsburgh (3-1, 2-1 ATS), having to play consecutive road games, after visiting N.C. State last week and blowing 31-17 lead, conceding three unanswered touchdowns in 38-31 defeat. The Panthers are one of the favorites to win the conference and they have shown why, sort of. They had one of better run defenses in the country anchored by Greg Romeus, until they crumbled against the Wolfpack in allowing 208 yards. They had no answer for N.C. State quarterback Russell Wilson. Fortunately, it doesn’t look like Louisville as anyone under center that resembles him.

Offensively, Pittsburgh does something better each week and quarterback Bill Stull is arriving as a passer, which really keeps this run-oriented team balanced. First year starter Dion Lewis has helped Pitt ring up 5.1 yards per carry. The Panthers are afflicted 8-21 ATS in road games after being outgained by 125 or more total yards in last game.

It’s another slow start for Louisville (1-1 ATS) after losing at Utah 30-14, giving them a 1-2 record. The Cardinals are predicted to finish at or near the bottom in the Big East race, but could change points of view with a home win over Pittsburgh.

As opposed to last year’s downcast 0-5 finish, Louisville has signs they might be better than anticipated. Quarterback Justin Burke has looked poised on the road and put up decent numbers and wide receiver Trent Guy is playmaker. Victor Anderson is dependable running back, though his lack of size has hurt the Cards on third and short situations. The defense has played in spurts, but hasn’t made big stops. In the last two games, Cardinals have flown the coup in yielding 191 yards per game on the ground. Under embattled coach Steve Kragthorpe, the ‘Ville is 4-10 SU and ATS in league play.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Pittsburgh as 6.5-point favorites with a steady total of 53.5. The Panthers have to take advantage of so-so Louisville offensive line and collapse the pocket to prevent secondary from being exposed. Pitt has covered their last four after relinquishing 280 or more yards. On offense, keep pounding away at the Cardinals defense with the run and see how they hold up.

The Cardinals are 4-8 against the spread when not playing on Saturday’s and will need supreme effort and no mistakes to pull off the upset. Burke must be intelligent decision-maker and not throw bad passes. If Burke can receive pass protection, Buffalo and N.C. State have combined for 755 passing yards against Cats secondary. For Louisville defense, add to Pittsburgh’s FBS total of most sacks allowed. The Cardinals are 9-3 ATS after scoring 20 or fewer points.

Last season, Pittsburgh leveled Louisville 41-7 as six-point favorites, ending seven game losing streak to them. They are 3-5 ATS in last eight meetings. ESPN2 has the coverage at 8 Eastern and the visitor is 6-2 ATS.

A New Month - More Winners

Go figure the Cubs would lose two to Pittsburgh, giving us .500 day. The best MLB system is not at 80 percent or higher, but the best we could is in article below. Instead I found a dandy for NFL Sunday to ponder at 82.1 percent. Have a remarkable Top Trend that is 17-1 and Gary looks to keep killin’ the oddsmakers with MLB Free Pick. Good Luck

What I learned yesterday – Though I don’t think much of handicapper Jim Feist, I’ve always admired his ability as promoter and ability to make money. On his Pro-Line show, there has been this woman the last few years named Roz Juarbe, who introduces segments. She SUPPOSEDLY is/was a handicapper, but only a buffoon would have believed that. I just found out Feist is actually married to her. Good for him, with the money talking.

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Free Football System-1) PLAY ON any team with a poor rushing defense, allowing 4.5 or more rushing yard a carry, after they gained 30 or less rushing yards last game. The logic doesn’t seem to make sense, but the 23-5 ATS record does. This system favors the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Jon Lester and the Red Sox are 17-1 when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons, winning by 4.1 runs per game.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Gary of the LCC moved his recent MLB record to 27-9 yesterday and rides the Giants with Tim Lincecum.

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Let's Play Two on the Thursday Gridiron

Coach Dan Hawkins was able to keep the wolves at bay, at least for one game after 24-0 shutout of Wyoming in last contest. Colorado (1-2 SU & ATS) made changes and played the right opponent in convincing victory. The Buffalos went back to basics, running the ball effectively and altering the defensive schemes that caused less confusion, which was frequently seen, especially in the secondary in losses to Colorado State and Toledo. The challenge becomes much steeper starting with West Virginia, who runs multiple attack, which flustered Colorado defenses to begin with. The Buffs are 5-13 ATS in non-conference matchups against BCS teams.

A familiar pattern is developing with West Virginia (2-1, 1-1 ATS) football under coach Bill Stewart. Except for East Carolina contest last season, the Mountaineers have been in position for victory, in the other four losses since Stewart has taken over in Morgantown. In the recent defeat at Auburn, West Virginia had over 500 total yards of offense and out-gained the Tigers by more than 100 yards, yet committed six turnovers and failed to win or cover in 41-30 defeat. The weaponry is in place with RB Noel Devine and WR Jock Sanders, it’s just quarterback Jarrett Brown who has to make smarter decisions and not throw into traffic. The Mountaineers are a mere 6-10-1 ATS as home favorites of late.

Bookmaker.com has West Virginia as 17-point favorites with a total of 54.5. This doesn’t necessarily place the Mountaineers in perfect position, since they are 4-9 ATS against teams with losing records. However, Colorado should be trusted like Bernie Madoff, with a 2-11 ATS mark as a road underdog.

Colorado won last year in Boulder 17-14 in overtime as three-point favorites and is 9-2 ATS on the road against teams off a SU and ATS loss with a winning percentage of .600 or higher. If the ‘Teers don’t turn the ball over, they should corral the Buffalos, being eminently more talented. Over the last four seasons, West Virginia is 7-1 ATS on home turf facing non-conference foes.

ESPN has the Big 12-Big East battle at 7:45 Eastern.

Not the only game in town

Southern Mississippi (3-1, 1-2 ATS) gave Kansas all they could handle at home before falling 35-28 as 11.5-point road underdogs. The Golden Eagles could well be without running back Damion Fletcher in this Conference USA contest, who is questionable with a groin injury he suffered against the Jayhawks. Quarterback Austin Davis picked up the slack last week, as the offense total 331 yards passing. Southern Miss runs a diversified passing attack, with five different receivers have caught at least 10 passes this season. The Golden Eagles are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.

After routing Rice 44-24 in season opener, UAB (1-3, SU & ATS) has gone backwards swiftly. Losses to SMU, Troy and Texas A&M have the Blazers trying to regroup. It’s been a collective effort according to coach Neil Callaway, with the offense not in sync and the defense a sieve. UAB surrendered 544 yards to the Aggies, including 236 yards on the ground and they are 5-11 ATS after allowing more than 200 yards rushing.

Southern Miss is a 10-point favorite with a total of 59 and they have outscored UAB 107-21 the last two years. The Blazers should be motivated after the Golden Eagles hung 70 points on them last season and they are 11-4-2 ATS as C-USA home underdogs.

Southern Miss is 6-1 ATS vs. UAB and is 3-0 ATS in Birmingham. This game will likely be decided on the ground. UAB has the No. 1 rushing offense in C-USA with 230.5 yards per game and the Golden Eagles are No. 1 against the run, surrendering just 64.2 yards per contest. CBS College Sports has the broadcast at 8 Eastern.

No rain in Seattle forecast with this system

Success is too often defined by winning championships, since only one team can walk away with the trophy. The Seattle Mariners (82-76, +10.2 units) fit the profile of a successful baseball team in 2009. After losing an American League worst 101 games last season, the Mariners have assured themselves of a winning season, with a 20+ game improvement.

Seattle is 45-32 this year as Safeco Field and will go for the sweep of the Oakland A’s (75-83, +7.2 units) this evening. The Mariners turnaround revolved around pitching, defense and very little hitting outside of always dependable Ichiro Suzuki. Seattle, going into the final few days of the season ranks sixth in runs allowed (4.3), but are dead last in runs scored (4.0) on the year.

The starting pitching has frequently allowed the bullpen to not be overexposed, which has made them more productive when called upon, despite not having overwhelming ability. This has been the case in this series, where the M’s bullpen has only seen 2 1/3 innings of work. Doug Fister (2-4, 4.50 ERA) will try and keep the good times flowing against an Oakland club that is 0-10 in road games when playing against teams with win percentage of 51 to 54 percent, in the second half of the season over the last two years.

Before last Sunday, the A’s were in the process of making their body of work look respectable for the season, winning 16 games in 20 tries. However, since Sunday, they have lost three in a row, surrendering 20 runs in the process.

They will hand the ball to rookie Brett Anderson (11-10, 4.12), trying to salvage one game in the series. The 21-year-old left-hander is 4-0 with a 2.28 ERA in his last four outings, which included a victory over Seattle at home on Sept.5.

Because of how well Anderson is pitching, Bookmaker.com has established Oakland as -120 money line favorites, with the total Ov7.5. That sounds right as long as Anderson can pitch, but what about if the A’s overworked and unproductive bullpen is called upon? That is where today’s Top System comes into action.

Play On home teams when the money line is +125 to -125, with a well rested bullpen, who has thrown two innings or less in each of the last three games, against opponent after a game where the bullpen threw six or more innings.

Over the last dozen years, this system has delivered exceptional results at 31-8, 79.5 percent. With Seattle 14-5 after allowing one run or less (7-0 shutout last night) in a win over a division rival and the Athletics 5-18 on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last two seasons, the Mariners could be a nice underdog play with a chance to go 8-1 at home versus Oakland this season.

Cash in on Conference Play

With the first weekend of October arriving, the leaves are or will be turning colors very shortly, offering a wonderful assortment of shades on the color spectrum. This time of year can also add a collection of “Benjamin Franklin’s” for the sports bettor prepared to rake in profits with the correct knowledge.

With the start of the last quarter of the year, this signifies college football going head first into conference action. Certainly, enough teams will bring in a sacrificial lamb for homecoming or between extremely challenging league games, however for the most part, it’s down and dirty with all your rivals.

This is really the coolest aspect of college football, playing within the conference. Unless there are coaching changes, most schools know what to expect from their opponents, facing them year after year and many of the best and most colorful moments the sport has to offer revolve around conference clashes. Teams might wear a special uniform in hopes of firing up the home underdog to pull the upset after losing to an opposing team for a number of years. Or gamesmanship, like Georgia’s coach Mark Richt used against Florida a couple of seasons ago, having his team run on the field after first touchdown of the game and taking penalty, only to have the favor returned in a different manner the following season by Urban Meyer, who used his three remaining time outs with under 90 seconds to play to prolong the Bulldogs 49-10 butt-whipping.

In college football, trends tend to mean more, as teams have confidence or lack thereof playing different universities with the conference. The SEC has the most head-scratching angles that seemingly come true year after year, and every conference has some of their own that tickle the fancy of those wagering on sports.

To create a realistic look at how teams perform in conference contests, went back to the year the “Blair Witch Project” was released (1999) and broke down this theme into different elements.

The first was the best and worst teams against the spread in league action. Boise State backers absolutely love the beginning of WAC play, since it’s a great time to stop worrying about health care issues and instead make and save money for those later years. The Broncos are 51-25 ATS, a delicious 67.1 percent in conference action, which includes 28-9 against the number as home chalk.

Oregon State has filled the coffers of many a supporter in Pac-10 play with 52-32 spread record, with these eager Beavers 21-10 ATS as Corvallis favorites. In the great state of Texas, a couple lesser known teams have cleaned up nicely, with TCU 44-31-1 ATS (including 26-9 ATS as home faves), mostly as favorites. The Rice Owls are spooking 48-30-1 ATS in conference play, including a FBS best 16-2-1 ATS as home underdogs.

Of course all the news is not joyful, as other teams fumble, bumble and stumble in league action. Indiana and covering Big Ten spreads is as bad a match as Lamar Odom and Khloe Kardashian, with the Hoosiers a losing 32-49 ATS. Washington’s USC upset doesn’t change the fact of over a decade of misery at 29-54-2 ATS. Other loathsome schools include Baylor at 28-50-2 ATS, Mississippi State from the SEC at 34-47-1 ATS and the always popular Fresno State, who falls apart faster than Lindsey Lohan in WAC action with 29-49-2 against the spread record.

If you compare the best winners and losers as home favorites, the list is definitely in favor of the latter. Big time programs like Alabama (9-19 ATS) and LSU (13-28 ATS) are diabolical home favorites, based on winning reputations and evil oddsmakers preying on backers appetites for playing them. The aforementioned Huskies of Washington are 3-17-1 and fellow Pac-10 partner Arizona is 4-13 ATS as home favorites. In the betting capital of the United States, Las Vegas, they have the Rebels, who have been dreadful for a long time, sporting 2-12 ATS home favorite record. North Carolina’s blue uniforms may look eye-pleasing, but a 4-13 ATS mark when they wear them as ACC faves is plain ugly.

Thank goodness for schools like Toledo at 22-11 ATS and Hawaii at 19-11 ATS, to carry the torch for quality home favorites.

Every sports bettor from the time they laid five bucks on their very first wager has been told to find the home underdog, giving them two chances to win. The resurgence of Mississippi’s football program means less chances of improving on 13-5 spread record as home underdogs at The Grove. A couple of under the wire schools thrive when catching points on campus, UAB is 11-4-2 ATS and equally sleepy Louisiana Tech is 8-3 versus the oddsmaker. If ever a university had the right nickname for this study assignment, it is Northern Illinois, whose Huskies are 8-2 ATS as home dogs. Minnesota is 6-12 ATS; however that might change with new on-campus digs when in underdog role. Baylor, well it’s going to take awhile for coach Art Briles to change mindset of team that if 9-24-1 ATS as Big 12 home team catching.

It takes the courage of a MMA fighter to want to consistently back a college football road underdog, no matter how points you receive. So many factors are working against you to win. The emotion of the home crowd, the other team being more talented as the linemaker suggests by the spread he releases and trying to avoid feeling sorry for yourselves when things don’t go your way. T. Boone Pickens may be a panjandrum who can afford to build lots of things with his money, but he can’t buy his way out of beloved Cowboys of Oklahoma State having 10-20 ATS road dog record. Connecticut has been very respectable since joining the Big East in football in 2004, but these Huskies have been collared to the porch with 3-12 ATS mark as the road pooch. Houston’s high scoring offense doesn’t play as well on the road as dogs with 7-14 ATS record. The Hoosiers of Indiana need more than a pep talk to improve 13-25 ATS road record in white uniforms. The mighty university from Monroe, LA is not cowardly, with 17-5 ATS pronouncement as visiting underdogs.

There are a few cross-over road dogs that can make cash. Texas A&M may bury Aggies fans with 8-18 ATS record as Big 12 road pups, nevertheless, they are 10-5-2 ATS as home dogs. San Jose State doesn’t gather much attention, especially with 10-20 road figure against the spread, however they are super Spartans as road favorites showing nine covers in 11 tries.

Top ranked Florida is on 6-1 ATS run as a road favorite and they will be on the hunt for more this season. The rest of college football isn’t so lucky and talented. UCLA has been about as overrated as they come in this spot with 4-16 ATS mark. Wake Forest, UTEP and Nebraska are worse than airline baggage fees at 3-8 ATS giving points to home-standing schools. The state of Idaho is a great exporter of potatoes; but the Vandals are stealing profits as road faves, failing to cover 75 percent of the time in a dozen attempts. N.C. State should avoid wearing favorite cap away from Raleigh as 3-12 ATS record proves.

Always make the time to be prepared for conference football success, because capitalism works best with honest hard work and no shortcuts to profits.

Bring on the Wednesday Action

Ended up with a not so great 0-2 record yesterday and look to turn this puppy around. Thanks to Sal for yet another great run. The Top Trend is a doubleheader, just like the team involved. The Best System is in the National League at 80.4 percent. The Free Play will be from a guy hitting 75 percent of his MLB plays. Good Luck

What I learned today – Tuesday's day/night twinbill between the Tigers and Twins was the first doubleheader of any kind since 1916 that was played this late in the calendar year between first- and second-place teams from the same league/division with first place on the line - that is, with teams separated by a margin of two games or less. Thanks Elias

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST NL road underdogs like Milwaukee with a money line of +150 or more, allowing 4.8 or more runs a game on the season, against opponent with a quality starting pitcher who owns WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. This system cashes 80.4 percent of the time with 86-21 record.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Two chances for this angle to be correct with Pittsburgh 4-21 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) this season.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Gary of the Left Coast Connection is 24-8 in last 32 MLB plays and he likes Colorado to move a step closer to the playoffs.

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Louisiana Tech's defense up against Hawaii

With 16 starters returning from a bowl team in 2008, the Bulldogs were considered a sleeper team that might challenge Boise State for the WAC title. Louisiana Tech’s (1-2, 0-2 ATS) loss to Auburn was hardly a shocker and they were underdogs at Navy, however it has been the margin and yardage differences that have brought a frown to Ruston, LA fans.

The Bulldogs lost to Auburn 37-13 and were outgained 556-245 as 12-point underdogs. We have since learned the Tigers are about as good as anyone in the country offensively this season. Louisiana Tech took a 14-0 lead at Navy and never scored again in 32-14 thumping, as the Middies running game piled up 290 yards on the ground. The Bulldogs knocked off Nicholls State 48-13, but that did little to quell the uncertainty.

After three games, the Bulldogs ranked 118th (out of 120) against the run in the country. Now comes the crazy part, after three games being road-grated, their rushing defense will undoubtedly improve against pass-happy Hawaii (2-1, 2-0 ATS).

“Everything we’ve been doing for three weeks, we just say, ‘Forget about it. It doesn’t work anymore,’” Coach Derek Dooley said in the Monroe News Star. “Now we have to switch our personnel around, switch who is in the game, and change the whole scheme. … It’s not like they’re having to learn a whole new defense, but everything’s different. It’s four-wide, it’s throwing it every down.”

If coach Dooley sounds a little exasperated, he probably is because he set high goals for this team. The Bulldogs will need to generate a consistent pass rush against Hawaii, but only have two sacks on the year. Last year’s running game that averaged 187 yards per game on the ground, has stalled at 97.3 YPG (104th) and this team isn’t good enough to win without a running game and is 8-21 ATS vs. teams with winning records.

It’s starting to look like business as usual as Hawaii opens WAC play, being the top team in the country in pass offense at 423.3 yards per game and sixth in total offense behind the arm of quarterback Greg Alexander. He has some outstanding targets to fire to in Kealoha Pilares and Rodney Bradley, for a squad that is 9-3 ATS in last dozen lined contests.

This is the Warriors third straight road game and has a defense that is being rebuilt with only two starters back. They squandered leads at UNLV and lost 34-33 as 7.5-point underdogs. DiamondSportsbook.com has Hawaii as 4.5-point underdogs with total of 54.5 and they are 2-10 ATS as underdogs with rest. Louisiana Tech is 6-1 ATS at Joe Aillet Stadium since 2006, but is 1-4 against the number when favored by 3.5 to 10 points.

The former Rainbow Warriors are 18-6 OVER after two or more consecutive wins against the spread, while the Bulldogs are 5-1 OVER in recent WAC matchups.

This game is being telecast on ESPN2 at 8Eastern, with Louisiana Tech 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS against Hawaii, which included 45-44 OT loss two years ago at home as 28-point underdogs. The loser of this game has a long road to the postseason; the winner emerges as one of the top threats to Boise State.

Upon further review in the NFL

The difference between a playoff team and one who misses can often be a very thin line. Luck or getting the right breaks can make all the difference. 2008 division champions Tennessee, Carolina and Miami have yet to post a win this season (1-8 ATS) and for all intents and purposes, are very unlikely to make the playoffs. So what happened?

The loss of Albert Haynesworth has affected the Titans in a different way than anticipated. Tennessee hasn’t dramatically been affected by run defense, however with no pass rush up the middle against opposing quarterbacks, the Titans are 29th against the pass. For the most part, Tennessee was better than the unbeaten Jets on Sunday, but two special team’s fumbles deep in their own territory gift-wrapped two touchdowns for New York. (Coach Fisher a strong candidate for "What not to wear" TV show)

Carolina can’t generate a consistent running game (21st), which leaves Jake Delhomme left to win the game, which he does not appear capable of doing. The Panthers felt they had to be quicker on defense and went lighter. Instead of making more plays, opposing teams are pushing them around and Carolina is 29th against the rush.

Miami is returning back to earth after miracle revival from a year ago, following a 1-15 season. The Dolphins still have satisfactory running game, but has been the case, teams decided to no longer respect the Dolphins passing game. Ted Ginn Jr. has shown why most were shocked when Miami drafted him so high. He’s a poor route runner, who lacks the ability to create separation despite tremendous straight-line speed. The Fins averaging a mere 5.0 yards per pass (29th). Maybe Chad Henne can try and stretch the field. The Dolphins have had a difficult schedule to boot, yet it doesn’t appear to lighten up with four AFC East games and New Orleans on the next five outings.

San Francisco isn’t going anywhere and looks very capable of covering a number of spreads. They create a dilemma for oddsmakers also, since they lack explosiveness on offense to warrant exaggerated figures and the defense is more team-oriented than exceptional.

There were fewer reasons to bet on Indianapolis on Sunday in Arizona than to tune in “Lost”. Virtually every perspective was against the Colts, expect for one element, Peyton Manning. Even if you don’t like all his commercials, the guy is a player. He had that look in his eyes, and if you have wagered against Indy when he does, just mark it as a loss. Talent-wise this is not a great Colts team, yet they have a chance to be great because they have Manning.

Any wonder why the Vikings never gave up on Brett Favre. Here’s a dollar to your thousand that two guys named Tarvais and Sage never even attempted the throw Favre made.

Denver would be 3-0 SU and ATS right now if they had Jay Cutler as their quarterback, but guaranteed Chicago wouldn’t be 2-1 if they didn’t have the former Bronco. Greg Olson is above average tight end, but Cutler is throwing to Devin Hester, Earl Bennett and Johnny Knox, who are arguably the worst collection of wideouts in the NFL. Along with an active defensive line, Cutler is the reason for Bears winning record.

Study the numbers

For underdog seekers, it was not a good week in the NFL, with favorites 11-5 ATS. Home underdogs performed poorly for the third straight week at 2-5 ATS and are 5-11 ATS on the season. Take a look pro teams that have won as road or home underdogs, they are 8-3 ATS in the early going the next week.

The favorites were crushed in college football last week, covering 20 of 50 games played. Double digit home favorites in particular were very beatable at 7-14 against the number. In a statistical oddity, the totals have been evenly split each of the last three weeks on the college board.

Line movers were 2-7 ATS in NFL sides and totals in which the number moved 2.5 or more points. The wagering public also was nailed on college sides with 4-10 ATS mark on contests that moved three points or more. However, good fortune continued on college totals with 15-7 week, taking season total record to 54-23, 70.1 percent.

Only off day of football this week

After a 1-1 performance, we move ahead to kind of a peculiar day. The Top Trend was rained out yesterday, so bring it back again. No great MLB systems, thus decided to bring in something completely fresh, a first half wager for Saturday college football (Clip and save). Sal will hopefully have another magical free play. Good Luck

What I learned today – The Panthers and Titans are each 0-3 this season after finishing the 2008 season with 12 and 13 wins, respectively. The last team to start 0-3 coming off a 12-win season before this year was Dick Vermeil's 2004 Chiefs. Thanks Elias

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST a road team like Virginia on the first half line who are terrible rushing team, averaging three or less yards per carry, against a team with a good rushing defense like North Carolina (3 to 3.5 YPR), after being outrushed by 125 or more yards in two straight games. Dating back to 1992, this system is 23-3, 88.5 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Nick Blackburn and the Minnesota Twins are 0-12 in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Sal backs the Braves to continue latest hot streak.

Guaranteed CFB Play for Wednesday

The Platinum Sheet is packed with useful tools.

Looking ahead in rearview mirror in college football

The world is an amazingly fickle place. When you are on the rise, everybody wants to be your friend. Once you reach the top of the summit, you are revered, honored and respected. Act a little pretentious and take a calculated risk that backfires and people will turn on you faster than an elected official talking bipartisanship.

That’s what seems to being happening to Urban Meyer at Florida, after the franchise, Tim Tebow, was blown up and suffered concussion at Kentucky. The media has decided to crush Meyer for having Tebow in a game that was 31-7 and the Wildcats showing no inclination of being any closer. Of course if the left side of the Florida line blocks and doesn’t expose “Superman” to big hit or Tebow’s own teammate’s knee doesn’t happen to be there to cause the trauma, all of this not a national sports story.

Like any good coach, Meyer had again seen a sluggish second half offense and undoubtedly wanted to give his first-teamers a chance to work out rough spots, for the eventually of actually having to play a full 60 minute game (see Penn State). Take off the 20-20 after-the-fact glasses and it was nothing more than bad luck Tebow was hurt. Besides let’s be honest, most of these scribes and talking heads love to see their names in more read areas to enhance reputation, than Tebow’s actual health.

For as many years as Joe Paterno has coached at Penn State, he as much as anyone should know playing bad opponents will improve team’s record; however will not prepare a team for eventual tough opposition. Iowa’s superior mental toughness (down 10-0 on the road) and more physical style started to take command in the second quarter and the Nittany Lions had no point of reference to turn the tide. StatFox had an angle that I’d never seen before and it rang true again. Penn State still might go on a win a beleaguered Big Ten, but they are 0-15 ATS against teams that hold opposing teams to 12 or fewer points.

California showed the courage of the “cowardly lion” from the Wizard of Oz at Oregon. Forget all the nonsense of look ahead to USC or Oregon just had hot day, these Bears by all appearances invoked the “Q” word and could have used someone like former Duck LeGarrette Blount, because at least he cared about losing. The type of loss Cal suffered (524 to 207 total yards) is hard to wash off and they are 3-7 ATS after Oregon. These Bears will have to hope there is no place like home against the Trojans.

One person and team that showed intestinal fortitude was Jimmy Clausen and Notre Dame. Starting Friday, reports were starting to emerge Clausen wasn’t nearly as good to go as advertised. Just minutes before the game, backup QB Dayne Crist was caught on camera warming up, which was a strong indicator Clausen wasn’t near 100 percent. The junior Irish signal caller was laboring with mechanics and Charlie Weis sent in a very effective package with Crist and Golden Tate in building 17-7 lead. Purdue did determine Notre Dame wasn’t going to really test them thru the air and shutoff the Irish offense and took the lead 21-17 with just over 3:30 minutes to play. Clausen strapped on the helmet, encouraged his team that they had to execute and he would take of the rest no matter if he was throwing on one foot. Clausen and the Irish showed grit in engineering game winning drive and were helped by highly questionable Purdue timeout with Notre Dame scrambling on third and goal. Are the Irish a great team or a good bet? Neither seems to be the case, but they don’t have another true road game until Nov. 14 (Washington State in San Antonio on Oct.31) and the way the first month has played out, it’s about winning and gathering styles points later.

Conference USA has a bevy of unfortunate teams, but Southern Miss and Houston are players. The Eagles pushed unbeaten Kansas to the limit at their place. Southern Miss was tied at 28 heading into fourth quarter as 11.5-point underdogs and lost by a touchdown. The stats proved how competitive the Eagles were, outgained just 433-395. They have good running game with Damion Fletcher and QB Austin Davis can chuck it around to big, strong wide receivers. They will have two difficult road trips to Houston and East Carolina, nonetheless, will be capable of winning both.

C-USA finally has respectable BCS-crasher somebody will talk about. Tulsa was 7-0 last year, but was thought of as nice story, not legit BCS material. Houston is 3-0, with a pair of Big 12 conquests. The spine-tingling comeback over Texas Tech before a record crowd at Houston has the Cougs in the Top 25 and BCS schools potentially looking for a new coach reading up on coach Kevin Sumlin. If the Cougars could conquer Mississippi State on the road in under two weeks, that leaves Southern Miss and at Tulsa as remaining visible road blocks.

Quick hits – The combination of Adam Webber and Eric Decker signifies that Minnesota has play on potential against Wisconsin, Penn State and Ohio State in the coming weeks. –Alabama is the most impressive team in the country and it is going to be nearly impossible to bet against them even as oddsmakers load the points on their opponents the next month. - So much for Virginia Tech not being a considerable factor in the ACC, after making Miami look like Duke in 31-7 thrashing. It will be interesting to see what the Hurricanes have left in the tank for Oklahoma this week as almost a touchdown home underdog. – The Ron Zook era might be coming to a close in Illinois. It won’t happen this year, but a lifeless Illinois team’s best performance was woofing at Ohio State BEFORE the game. Juice Williams never improved after Rose Bowl season. The Zookers are 15-32 SU if you take out FCS games in his tenure and might be favored just three more times this season.

Let's keep the Winners coming on Monday

The winning continues despite a sorry system play which was about as close as those saying President Obama wasn’t American. We’ll try and do best with fabulous system that is 12-0 this year alone. The Top Trend is reverse perfect at 0-12 in the American League and Sal is officially white hot and goes for fifth in a row here. Good Luck

What I learned today – Mark Sanchez became the first rookie in nearly 60 years to score a touchdown and throw a TD pass in the first quarter of the same game. The last rookie to do that was Adrian Burk of the Baltimore Colts in 1950. Among the others to have done so was a pair of rookies in 1921 better known for their respective success as an NFL coach and an Olympian: Curly Lambeau and Jim Thorpe. Thanks Elias

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Houston with a money line of +175 to +250, batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a starting pitcher who has WHIP 1.000 or less over his last five starts. This system is 60-4, 93.7 percent in the last five years and is 12-0 in 2009.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Nick Blackburn and the Minnesota Twins are 0-12 in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Sal's best play is on Tampa Bay today and for those who want to know what he likes on Monday, he made a small wager on the Over (MNF play won't count).

Guaranteed NFL Pick with Paul Buck’s Monday Magic.

The Platinum Sheet is filled with Winning Information.

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Tony Romo needs make good to teammates

Dallas comes off a disappointing last second loss to the Giants in last week’s new stadium opener, and will look to turn it around in a Monday night contest hosting Carolina. The Cowboys fell to 1-1 with the loss, putting more importance on this game with a two-game AFC road swing on deck, after both the Giants and Eagles won on Sunday. Dallas is on a nice run of 28-14 ATS, bouncing back from a game in which they allowed 30 or more points. A 1-2 start, losing their first two games at the new palatial palace in Arlington would be disastrous for the Cowboys.

Hey Carolina, it’s time to wake up! Every Panthers fan is well aware if you go back to distressing playoff loss to Arizona from last season, Carolina has lost seven straight games, if you include the four preseason games. Failure like success is contagious and you can forget what it feels like to win and what it takes, for a squad who has failed to cover last five outings after allowing 350 or more yards in previous contest.

Things change expediently in the NFL and a 0-2 start for a team that won their division a season ago doesn’t count for much, ask Tennessee and Miami how they are feeling right now sitting without a win. The Panthers on the verge of seeing their playoff hopes disappear before their open date, which comes next week. That could be important as Carolina is on a 6-1 ATS stretch in pre-bye week road games.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Panthers as eight-point road underdogs, with a total of 47.5 and amazingly, underdogs have covered 12 straight pre-bye week games in which Carolina was one of the participants.

Both teams need their quarterbacks to play up to capabilities. Jake Delhomme has five interceptions already this season, with one touchdown pass and Hall of Famer Tony Dorsett’s least favorite Dallas signal caller, Tony Romo, pretty much singlehandedly cost the Cowboys a win last week. In last nine meetings between these teams the underdog is 7-2 ATS.

Carolina covers if two very important things happen. Start with Carolina offensive line giving Delhomme protection. It’s been known for sometime Delhomme is liable to put the ball up for grabs when receiving pressure. His steadiness has waned since the middle of last season. He needs time and has to get the ball in Steve Smith’s hands. The O-Line has to do better than 4.2 yards per carry with backs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Dallas is loose in gap protection, which could open up running lanes for the dynamic duo. The Cats are cool 16-5 ATS off a road loss against a division rival.

The other key point is Carolina defensive coaches need to add diversification. The Panthers are not getting any pass rush and are not blitzing to counteract. The defensive line is being wiped out with opponents rushing for 168 yards a game. Find ways to free up linebackers to make tackles and mix it up. Given Romo’s playing style, the Panthers could go to 9-2 ATS following a SU loss if they play looser and attack more.

Dallas covers if they properly execute last week’s game plan. The Cowboys ran for 251 yards against a very good Giants defensive line, which means they should have no problem averaging somewhere between 5.1 yards per carry (Carolina allows) to 7.0 (Dallas’ average YPC). Coach John Fox has seen enough coverage miscues to last half a season in the first two games, even Romo should be able to read and react to what he sees, with his team 8-3 ATS this month. The Cowboys led the NFL in sacks last season, thus far, ZERO. Delhomme will hit open Dallas defenders like they are the primary receiver if under duress. The Cowboys are 17-8-1 ATS off a defeat.

Monday Night System – Play Against any underdog that allowed 24 or more points in their last two games. (26-13-1 ATS)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

3Daily Winners Serves up Sunday

Awfully pleased with 3-1 day (Kansas lost from Thursday) taking us to 10-4 the last four days, hopefully today we can continue. We have outstanding system that is 19-3 ATS in the AFC West and Top Trend on the G-Men that 84.2 percent. Sal is amazing when he hits hot spells (8-1 yesterday, 15-3 the last three days) and offers his Best Bet for Free today. Good Luck

What I thought today – I have to admit I was shocked Texas Tech couldn’t hold lead against Houston, giving me a 3-3 Saturday, bitterly disappointed.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON a home underdog that won SU as a road dog last week, but scored 14 or fewer points in the win. Since 1990, this system is 19-3, 86.3 percent and backs Oakland.

Free Football Trend -2) The New York football Giants are 16-3 ATS after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored.

Free Football Pick -3) Is Sal starting another hot streak after a third straight winner here yesterday? We’ll find out after his New England selection today.

Guaranteed NFL Plays today include -- Underdog Surprise of the Day Guaranteed - Paul Buck's System Shocker on Top Dog and Sunday Night Solution

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NFL Week 3 Inside Info

The Tennessee Titans and New England Patriots are two the teams that need to get season turned in the right direction quickly or preseason aspirations might be unfounded. The San Francisco 49ers has adopted the personality of their coach Mike Singletary and will try and pull another surprise in Minnesota on Sunday. Drew Brees has New Orleans en fuego, but they are expected to having a rugged time in Buffalo. Can Cincinnati end home drought to the Super Bowl champions? That question and many others will be answered as theirs Week 3 of the NFL commences.

Tennessee at N.Y. Jets 1:00E CBS

The Titans and Jets aren’t divisional foes, but they have become quite familiar with one another over the last several seasons. In fact, this Week 3 meeting between the teams will mark the fourth straight season that the teams have squared off. In that span, the Jets own a 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS edge. In fact, the Jets have actually swept the last five meetings overall against the spread. At 0-2, Tennessee is in dangerous waters, with a difficult stretch of games upcoming. The Jets are flying high, one of nine 2-0 teams after beating the Patriots. Head coach Jeff Fisher’s team has gone 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games, while the Jets’ Week 2 win improved their mark in early season home contests, they are still dismal 8-20 ATS as September hosts.

Keys to the Game-

Facts are facts; the Titans pass defense has been wretched, dead last in the NFL at 339 yards per game. Tennessee has first year DC Chuck Cecil and they’ve blitzed hardly at all, now would be a good time to show urgency and pressure QB Mark Sanchez, if they want pull the upset and improve to 9-1 ATS in opening month. Kerry Collins will see similar blitz packages Tom Brady did last week and will have to be on target and utilize RB Chris Johnson in open areas. Look for LenDale White to see more action against the No. 6 New York run defense. The Titans are 14-3 ATS after gaining 200 or more rushing yards in last game.

The Jets offensive coaches have done exceptional work in giving Sanchez just enough to handle, without overburdening him. The run game has been effective enough and Sanchez has delivered when being asked to throw. Coach Rex Ryan has already made his impression on Flyboys, having the same smile as comedian Ron White in an “I told you so manner”. New York’s front seven must lock up Johnson, since the Titans are run-first team and if successful, will send five and six players to hound Collins. New York is 6-2 ATS off a win; however is 1-7 ATS if opponent is off SU favorite loss this month.

3DWLine – N.Y. Jets -7

DiamondSportsbook.com Line – N.Y. Jets -2, 37

San Francisco at Minnesota 1:00E FOX

Minnesota is off to a fast start at 2-0, with both wins having come on the road. Thus, a fired up Metrodome crowd figure to greet the Vikings and their new signal caller on Sunday when they host San Francisco in the home opener. The franchise has split its last eight opening home games SU & ATS and has gone just 10-15 ATS under Brad Childress as hosts. Minnesota is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings when hosting the 49ers, and overall, the home team owns an 8-2 SU & ATS mark. For the 49ers, also 2-0 after beating Seattle at home, another away contest offers a chance to extend a 4-2 ATS stretch in road games under head coach Mike Singletary. The matchup could hinge on the 49ers rush defense (53 yards per game, 2.6 yards per carry) stopping running back Adrian Peterson and the Vikings’ ground game (168 YPG, 5.4 YPR).

Keys to the Game-

The Vikings may be off a pair of wins; however the trademark run defense has not manifested itself to date. It’s true, basing production after two tilts is panicky, nevertheless, Minnesota ranks 15th against the rush taking on lowly Cleveland and Detroit. The 49ers with Frank Gore bring more to the party and the Vikes closed last season 1-4 ATS in the dome. Brett Favre hasn’t gotten in sync with his receivers yet and they are 31st in yards per pass attempt (4.8), they’ll need to make better connections to loosen Niners secondary. Favre has been sacked seven times already and taken other body blows. This has to change or Minny falls to 3-11 ATS of a victory.

San Francisco’s defense is rated seventh, because they have limited big plays and forced the opposing team to go the length of the field one first down at a time. This becomes even more important against Adrian Peterson. The Niners have covered last four contests as underdogs by protecting the pigskin; they’ll need more of the same in Minnesota. The 49ers offensive coaches should not want to fall into trap of giving up on third down and medium or long, always hoping a receiver can make a play. The coaches have to be more aggressive and attack. San Fran is 10-2 UNDER in road games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in two straight games.

3DW Line – Minnesota by 4
Bookmaker.com Line – Minnesota -7, 39.5

Atlanta at New England 1:00E FOX

The 2-0 Falcons hit the road for the first time in 2009, with a difficult task at hand, facing the 1-1 Patriots. Atlanta has fared well in inter-conference games, 11-5-1 ATS over the last four seasons vs. the AFC. They also come in on a nice stretch of 7-3 SU & 9-1 ATS in pre-bye week games since 2001. The Falcons will enjoy next week off before heading to San Francisco. With this game, New England begins a stretch of three home games in the next four weeks against some of the NFL’s better clubs. Dating back to 2004, the Pats are just 15-22 ATS at Foxboro. They are only 3-5 ATS hosting NFC clubs in that span. This will be the first time since 1998 that the Falcons have visited New England, and the road clubs have won the last three meetings, both SU & ATS.

Keys to the Game-

It’s not business as usual for New England as many anticipated. Tom Brady might be cool under pressure, but is proving to not like angry large men around his surgically repaired left knee. His mechanics are off, getting rid of the ball a split second sooner than before and acting human. The offensive line and running backs have to start shouldering more of the load for the 26th ranked running game. That means this week containing DE John Abraham. The Patriots are 22-7 ATS off a loss and just don’t look and feel right. This thought process is formulated by seeing New England is third in total defense, yet when watching them, the Bills and Jets SEEMED to make all the plays they needed when necessary.

Atlanta has been more aggressive to attempting to create pressure this season on defense and will want to keep Brady off-kilter however possible. The Falcons are 11-4 ATS as road underdogs of 3.5-10.0 points and will want to batter away at New England’s defensive front with Michael Turner. Atlanta has averaged 32 rush attempts in first two games, which would help keep the Brady Bunch off the field, but coach Mike Smith better find another back, with Turner having 50 carries already. Matt Ryan has looked super and that grin he’s wearing has a lot to do with having Tony Gonzalez as tight end, which really makes the passing game work. The Birds will try to reverse 0-6 ATS trend after two or more wins over the last three seasons.

3DW Line – New England by 1

DiamondSportsbook.com Line – New England -4.5, 46.5

New Orleans at Buffalo 4:05E FOX

New Orleans might be one of the NFL’s elite teams and the favorite in Sunday’s game at Buffalo, but make no mistake, this one won’t be easy. After last week’s win over Tampa Bay, Head coach Dick Jauron now owns a 15-3 ATS mark at home against non-conference teams. His Bills’ clubs are also 9-4 ATS in September, and 8-4 ATS as home underdogs. By all rights, Buffalo should be 2-0 headed into this one as well, having handed New England the win in the Monday night opener. The Saints are in a comfortable role however, that being road favorites. Under Sean Payton, they are 7-1 SU & ATS after last week’s win at Philly. His team was also 4-0 ATS against the AFC last season. In this series, road teams are on a 3-1 SU & ATS run, with favorites having swept the last three.

Keys to the Game –

The thesaurus sure comes in handy in describing Drew Brees and the Saints offense thus far. Brees is playing with max confidence and has more visible weapons than Iran. As long as the offensive line keeps the protection up and runners like Mike Bell are effective, New Orleans is going to make long weeks for opposing defensive coordinators. The Saints defense won’t strike fear into the hearts of opposing clubs, but seven forced turnovers have limited opponents from scoring and if a team can establish identity for causing miscues, they make the opposition more careful. Buffalo head man Dick Jauron has never given the impression as coach that “hits” on 15 in blackjack, which benefits the Saints who are 6-0 ATS after playing their last game on the road.

The best way to negate New Orleans offense is keep them on the sidelines. The Bills are averaging 5.7 yards per carry with Fred Jackson doing the toting. Buffalo will want establish Jackson and if successful, that means the Saints have to start walking safeties up on earlier downs, creating more space for Lee Evans and Terrell Owens. The Bills are 10-3-2 ATS as non-division home dogs of three or more and will have to be creative defensively in cooling Brees. Buffalo blitzed over 60 percent of Tampa Bay’s drop-backs a week ago and will have to similar numbers, with greater disguise against the Saints. Bills QB Trent Edwards can’t turn the ball over, and must find safety Darren Sharper on all pre-snap reads. Bills must avoid shootout, with New Orleans 13-3 OVER after one or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.

3DW Line – New Orleans by 1
Bookmaker.com Line – New Orleans -6, 51.5

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati 4:15E CBS

Pittsburgh and Cincinnati will each be playing their first divisional games of 2009 when they go head-to-head on Sunday. Both teams are 1-1 and already looking up at Baltimore the AFC North standings. For the Bengals’, this game is critical, as they face a back-to-back road trip next up on the schedule and since they will be looking to thwart a trend of 3-13 SU & ATS against Pittsburgh at home. Overall, Pittsburgh has won the last five battles, including four in a row by double-digit margins. Cincy is also just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 divisional games, 1-4 SU & ATS at home. The Steelers are 9-4 ATS vs. AFC North rivals in the Mike Tomlin era, 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS on the road. They look to rebound from the loss in Chicago, their third straight ATS setback away from home.

Keys to the Game-

It hard to call this a rivalry, as Cincinnati hasn’t won at home against Pittsburgh since 2001, but no time like the present. The Bengals players to a man feel disrespected by the Steelers and want to change the score. Without Troy Polamalu, Ochocinco and Cincinnati wideouts will have a little more room over the middle. If they can get backup Tyrone Carter to bite, this leaves more space outside the hashmarks for Carson Palmer to operate. RB Cedric Benson is running like the back Chicago drafted, with 217 yards already. No back has gone over 100 yards against the Steelers in 20 games, but if Benson can pile up yardage to keep his team out of bad down and distance situations and carry for a few first downs, that will help immensely for a team that is 11-5 ATS after rushing for over 150 yards.

The Cincinnati defense has been more attacking and for whatever reason, the first two Bengals opponents have only averaged 19 carries a game in spite of being close contests. Pittsburgh has to get running game untracked and Cincy is pedestrian 4.3 YPC allowed, thus serve up Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall. The O-Line has to block DE Antwan Odom, who has a season full of sacks (7) for most defensive linemen in two games. The Steelers D has created pressure, just not sacks. They need to put the immobile Palmer on the ground to improve to 22-8-2 ATS as division road team.

3DWLine – Pittsburgh by 5.5

DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Pittsburgh -3.5, 37.5

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

Let's have a Scintillating Saturday

When we last did this on Thursday, we picked up our third straight 2-1 day. Let’s hope it’s that or more starting with a Top Trend that is 14-0 against and you would NEVER guess the team. The Best System is 28-6 ATS in non-conference action and Sal has what he believes is another winner at 3Daily Winners. Good Luck

What I thought today – I just can’t stand when I’m already to back a certain team all week in football and then I find totally contrary information. I still might play Oregon State, but for a lot less than I was going to. God ^@#*&)@)

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST home underdogs of 14.5 or more points like Bowling Green- after a playing a game where 29 total points or less were scored. Since 1999, this system is 28-6, 82.4 percent against the spread.

Free Football Trend -2) This is a crazy trend I never recall seeing, Penn State is is 0-14 ATS vs. defensive teams who give up 12 or less points a game since 1992.

Free Football Pick -3) Sal has hit two straight, he’ll go for a third with UL-Monroe today.

Guaranteed College Football Plays today include --Non-Conference Fraud of the Month and Paul Buck’s Saturday Sweeper

The Platinum Sheet is filled with Winning Information.

Early Line Moves in Football

Next year 3Daily Winners expects to have a football newsletter, but in the meantime, we will offer Free inside information. When we say “inside information” we mean finding material not commonly found on other websites and blogs. In other words we had to figure it out. One popular and profitable segment I’ve followed for years is Early Line Moves.

Last week was improved across the board as I expected, not sensational, just steady. The college sides were 5-4 ATS, raising record to 12-15 on the year and totals (where many professional bettors hang out) were 7-3 on early action, taking that record to 14-9. Last week, there was no side action in the NFL, leaving the record at 3-2; however the totals were 2-1, for 2-4 start.

I’m all but certain next year I won’t count the first week in college or pros, since those numbers have too much exposure over time to all kinds of bettors.

College Sides
Northwestern -2 to +1.5
Rutgers -3 to Pick
Utah -11.5 to -14
Navy -26.5 to -30
Arizona -2.5 to +2

College Totals
Misso/Nev 58 to 62
Buff/Temple 49 to 45.5
TCU/Clem 48 to 44
UAB/Tex A&M 60 to 63
USM/Kansas 57 to 61
ASU/ Geor 56 to 51
Cal/Oreg 60 to 56
USF/Flor. St. 54 to 50
N.D./Purdue 57 to 60

NFL Sides
Green Bay -8.5 to -6.5
San Diego -7.5 to -5.5
Pittsburgh -6 to -3.5
Arizona Pick to -2.5

NFL Totals
SF/Minn 42 to 40
Car/Dall 45 to 47.5

Saturday's Big Wagering Options

With Joe Paterno a college football legend, the former Brooklyn native knows his team has taken on three tomato cans and will face a squad with pulse in Big Ten opener against Iowa. The ACC has pair of arresting games, with Miami now a favorite at Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech looking to knock North Carolina out of the unbeaten ranks. California has USC next, but can’t overlook perfidious Oregon first. Arkansas has given Alabama problems in the past, can they again with quality offense? Speaking of offense, the most fun game by far looks like Texas Tech at Houston, where the score is already 17-13 and they haven’t kicked off yet. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

North Carolina (+3, 45.5) at Georgia Tech Raycom 12:00E

The Tar Heels returned nine starters on defense and this has been the strength of the team early in the 2009 campaign. They will now be tested by Georgia Tech’s powerful option offense in Atlanta. Coach Butch Davis’ defense held Connecticut offense to 196 total yards and did a good job in limiting East Carolina to 13 first downs and 17 points last week. What’s encouraging is the defense has been a team concept, with 11 different players having made tackles for a loss. They are tied for 10th in the country in points allowed at 11 per game. The offense still needs work as quarterback T.J. Yates is searching for the right chemistry with receivers. North Carolina is 8-4 ATS as single digit ACC underdog.

Georgia Tech has an extra two days to prepare after losing at Miami 33-17 on ESPN last Thursday. The Yellow Jackets success or failure will in part fall upon the right arm of junior Josh Nesbitt. Far from a polished passer, Nesbitt can throw the pigskin accurately when he sticks with his mechanics. When he deviates, he can stink up the joint like he did against Clemson, going thru 1 for 11 spell.

Teams with big physical defenses that have enough quickness on the defensive front, are starting to have success against triple option attacks. This means Nesbit has to continue to be a clutch performer and come up big when called upon as he has in the past with 5-2 and 5-1 ATS record in games decided by four or less points.

Georgia Tech has won three of last five but is 0-5 ATS since 2004 versus the Tar Heels. North Carolina in fact is 11-4 against the spread in last 15 ACC affairs, with the underdog a nicely profitable 8-4 ATS. Watch the oddsmakers line for movement on this contest, with the Heels 8-4 ATS catching three or less points. The Yellow Jackets escaped 27-25 as nine-point home favorite in 2007 and they are 21-9 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3.

3DWLine – Pick

Arkansas (+17.5, 58) at Alabama CBS 3:30E

Coach Bobby Petrino has a more veteran team this season and has less to worry about from the mental standpoint after his squad lost 52-41 to Georgia at home, before getting ready to play Alabama. Nothing would satisfy Petrino’s ego more than to start knocking off giants like the Crimson Tide, so he could update his resume for the next job he’s seeking on his Linkedin or Facebook pages. His quarterback is Ryan Mallet, whose displayed NFL arm and ability to find different receivers in Razorbacks offense. Mallet will be tested all game long by Alabama defense that can make QB’s make poor choices. The Hogs head to Tuscaloosa 10-4 ATS as away dogs.

Coach Nick Saban’s defense is like the boss in the office meeting who quietly takes everything in and once he’s seen or heard enough takes control. The first few Crimson Tide opponents have had some success moving the ball in the first part of the game, but like a water faucet, are turned off after showing what they expect to do. Field general Greg McElroy has shown growth weekly, delivering strikes to receivers and improving complete view of the field. McElroy strength as a thrower is the deep ball and he’ll have numerous opportunities against Razorbacks secondary. Despite a bushel full of athletes, Bama special teams are anything but and the squad is 7-16-1 ATS as SEC favorites of 10 or more points.

This has been one of those SEC series. The home team is 5-10 ATS and has failed to cover the last four engagements and with Mallet’s big arm and talented pass catchers, Arkansas has at least a puncher’s chance to cover the spread. The straight up winner is 15-3 ATS all-time when these two universities get together, but has been trending the other way at 1-3 ATS the last four years.

Alabama has won a school record 17 straight SEC openers (8-9 ATS), while the Razorbacks are 4-12 ATS in first conference road trip. Remember also, the Tide is 0-7 ATS at home after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in three straight games and 17-5 UNDER at their place after three or more consecutive wins.

3DW Line – Alabama by 15

California (-5.5, 55.5) at Oregon ABC 3:30E

California is off harder than expected trip to the Land of 10,000 Lakes and feels prepared to open Pac-10 play with two treacherous weeks ahead. The Bears offense is in good hands when potential All-American Jahvid Best is carrying the ball. Chances are with all the talent on the field for Cal QB Kevin Riley, he doesn’t have to be great all the time; however he might be called upon to be so in enemy territory this week. Though the Bears defense can really get after the passer, they can be passed on (ranked 62nd), especially between the hash marks away from corner Syd’Quan Thompson. Cal is unsightly 0-5 ATS in the second of back to back road tilts.

Each game played places Oregon further away from LeGarrette Blount incident, nonetheless doesn’t mask obvious shortcomings. The Ducks receivers have been more likely to catch the H1N1 virus than Jeremiah Masoli passes and the junior quarterback has thrown his fair share of passes this season that have wobbled like, well, a duck. After being bottled up by Boise State, the running game has averaged 205 yards per game the last two weeks. The defense hasn’t impressed anyone (82nd in yards allowed), though linebacker Casey Mathews is emerging as playmaker and senior cornerback Walter Thurmond III is an excellent pass defender in a league stuffed with quality defensive backs. In reviewing history, Oregon is 18-4 ATS in first conference clash.

Four of the last six confrontations between these squads have been decided by seven points or less. California is 5-0 ATS playing a Pac-10 foe off a non-conference contest, with average winning margin of 38.6 points per game. Oregon is 21-14 ATS taking on ranked teams the last decade and 12-2 ATS after playing a game at home. Before losing 31-24 in Eugene in 2007, The Ducks had rattled off six straight wins over the Bears with six covers.

3DW Line – California by 5.5

Miami (-3, 47.5) at Virginia Tech ABC 3:30E

It’s sad really, from 1992 until 2003, a Miami and Virginia Tech battle was the essence of Big East football. The games weren’t always close, but they spoke about what made the conference as it grew in stature. These two rivals still meet in ACC action, but the importance has been somewhat diminished.

Coach Randy Shannon clearly did not look at Miami’s schedule before taking the job in 2006, since only a person with only short term job ambitions would want to play an early schedule that includes Florida State, Georgia Tech, the Hokies and Oklahoma in its first four games. Miami’s new wide-open offense has unleashed QB Jacory Harris, who has embraced the idea of throwing the ball to a variety of receivers. The defense is rounding into formidable unit and is allowing just 3.0 yards per carry. The Hurricanes are 7-2 ATS in last nine road excursions.

This is Virginia Tech’s third consecutive contest in Blacksburg and they are jacked after knocking off Nebraska in 16-15 thriller this past week, in a game they never should have won. Beamer-ball is often solely associated with special teams, yet what makes Frank Beamer an elite coach is finding offensive linemen that enjoy opening up chasms and shifty running backs who can fly thru them. Add in relentless defenders that run to the ball and the real recipe for success is realized playing Beamer-ball. The Hokies are 34-9 and 29-14 ATS since joining the Athletic Coast Conference.

Virginia Tech is 9-5 and 11-3 ATS versus Miami since 1995, including 5-1 against the spread record at Lane Stadium. The wagering public is both not impressed with the Hokies and very impressed with the Hurricanes, taking the ACC matchup from a Pick, to Miami by three.

The Hokies are only 5-5 ATS in the third of three or more consecutive home games and are just 7-11-1 ATS with home field advantage the last four seasons. Expect the Canes defense to stack the box like the Huskers did and force QB Tyrod Taylor to move the chains. Look for coach Shannon to use RB’s Graig Cooper and Javarris James to go after the Hokies 108th ranked run defense (200.3 YPG). The Hurricanes will have to crank up the offense, scoring more than 17 points once in last six contests.

3DW Line – Virginia Tech by 10

Iowa (+9.5, 40.5) at Penn State ABC 8:00E

Iowa has drawn very few patsies in Big Ten openers since the new millennium began and this will be no different traveling to State College, PA. The Hawkeyes have been 4-0 twice in the previous six years and a third time would bring significant attention to Kirk Ferentz’s football program, beating highly ranked Penn State. Iowa football is about the basics, blocking and tackling. The offensive line has started to come together and pair of freshmen running backs (Brandon Wegher and Adam Robinson) has folks in Iowa City excited. If QB Ricky Stanzi continues to read defenses proficiently and finds the hot receiver, the Iowa defense will hold up their end of the deal, ranked 14th in points surrendered at 12 per game. The Hawkeyes are 8-3 ATS as road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points.

At this juncture, it’s not easy to gauge just how good Penn State is or isn’t. Most top level teams would plow through Akron, Syracuse and Temple at home, just like the Nittany Lions have. The Penn State players’ hearts should be racing, as Iowa handed them their only regular season loss a year ago, 24-23 as seven-point road favorites. Senior Daryll Clark has been accurate thrower, as the offensive line has been better at pass-blocking compared to run blocking in September to this point. With the competition in the lightweight category, what we know about the defense is they can stop the run and prevent big plays. Penn State is 8-3 ATS when favored by 17 or fewer points at home in the last four years.

Joe Paterno’s defense has held three crummy opponents to 6.7 points per game, however, Iowa’s not exactly an offense juggernaut ranked 68th in total offense. The Hawkeyes are 4-14 ATS versus excellent rushing defenses allowing 2.75 or less rushing yards per carry. Iowa however has held the upper hand with 7-3 and 8-2 ATS mark over Joe Pa’s troops in the last 15 years. The underdog has bitten as much as it could chew with 8-2 ATS record, including five outright upsets. And get this, Penn State is bizarro-world 0-14 ATS vs. defensive teams who give up 12 or less points a game.

StatFox Power Line – Penn State 7.5

Texas Tech (+1, 74.5) at Houston ESPN2 9:15E

It’s back to work for Houston after a bye week, enjoying the adulation of knocking of then No.5 Oklahoma State on their home field 45-35. They will try and knock off another Big 12 team, Texas Tech, this time at home. Being 3-0 with two wins over Big 12 teams will have Houston and Conference USA being mentioned as BCS bowl-crasher this season. Coach Kevin Sumlin has taken what Art Briles (now at Baylor) started and improved it. The Cougars are ranked for the first time in 18 years and there is a lot of excitement about triggerman Case Keenum. The junior quarterback makes exceptional decisions in finding speedy and quick receivers. With all the praise, coach Sumlin’s toughest job might be refocusing his team; not playing Texas Tech. Houston is 15-25 ATS in non-conference play since 2000.

Texas Tech comes off the Texas revenge game and played better than expected in 34-24 defeat. QB Taylor Potts is the next signal caller in the Mike Leach assembly line that gets rid of the ball quickly and makes good reads. Potts has security blanket in wide receiver in Lyle Leong, who has been his best friend since elementary school and the two have played football together all along the way. Red Raiders coaches like what they got from running back Tre’ Newton against the Longhorns, rushing for 88 yards. With the playing surface less an issue today for the sports bettor than before, Texas Tech is a curious 10-22 SU and ATS in regular season games on natural grass.

As Mississippi proved Thursday night, playing with expectations can be stifling experience and this is what Houston has tonight. With win over Okie State, Houston is 10-5 ATS versus BCS schools since 2001, but is 0-9 ATS after two or more consecutive straight up wins over the last three seasons. Coach Leach is one of the best bounce back coaches in the game off a loss; with his team 25-12 ATS in next effort. The total is vexing figure with Texas Tech 27-9 OVER off a cover and the Cougars 8-2 UNDER after a bye week.

3DW Line – Texas Tech by 1

Nevada needs Kaepernick and defense to play big

Nevada finally opens its home schedule, but the assignment will be anything but easy. The Wolf Pack brought back 14 starters and a number of key reserves that were supposedly ready to move into starting slots. Junior quarterback Colin Kaepernick was ready for breakout junior season after promising first two years in Reno.

Offensive-minded Nevada hung a zero on the scoreboard in South Bend and much of the reasoning given was Notre Dame’s attacking blitz-scheme coming to fruition with bigger and faster players. That theory has been discarded with the Fighting Irish allowing 68 points in next two games.

Nevada’s pass defense was the worst in the FBS last season and there wasn’t much reason to believe they were going to be a whole lot better in 2009, unless the front seven could rush the passer better and stop the run with greater aplomb. After being gashed for 178.5 yards on the ground and surrendering seven touchdown passes thru the air, it doesn’t look like defense will be a strong suit for Nevada.

Coach Chris Ault prides himself as offense coach and his offense has been offensive in committing eight turnovers and scoring only 20 points this season. Kaepernick hasn’t shown the same accuracy as before and been somewhat less inclined to take off and scamper. Maybe putting on the blue uniform will help the Wolf Pack (0-2, SU & ATS) who are 7-3 ATS at home in non-conference play.

After pounding a little Paladin 52-12, (Furman’s nickname) Missouri (3-0, 1-1 ATS) gets back to the business of playing real football teams, traveling to Nevada. Coach Gary Pinkel knows the offensive problems that arose against Bowling Green have to be avoided because the Wolf Pack are dangerous at home.

Quarterback Blaine Gabbert has quickly grown into the Tigers offense, being on the mark to receivers Jared Perry and Danario Alexander. He’s benefitted from excellent protection from his offensive line and an adequate running game churning out 4.2 yards per carry.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Missouri as seven-point road favorites, with a rising total of 60.5. The Tigers are 6-2 SU & ATS in true road games and are 8-0 ATS as favorites of 3.5 to 10 points over the last three seasons. One would expect the talented Kaepernick to raise his level of play and want to make good on national TV after Notre Dame debacle. Playing before a friendly home crowd, Nevada is 19-8 ATS under coach Ault and 10-2 ATS at home when the total is between 56.5 and 63.

Nevada’s biggest issue is going to be stopping Tigers attack and they are only 1-9 ATS when they allow 28 or more points over the last two seasons. At the very least, the Wolf Pack ought to peeved after being shellacked 69-17 in Columbia last year.

ESPN has this Big-12/WAC clash starting at 9 Eastern.